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An Opinion Poll On Peace
Peace Confidence Index (P
So
© 2002 Social Indicator ? Centre for Po
M

pinion Poll On Peace
ace Confidence Index (PCI)
Social Indicator
dicator ? Centre for Policy Alternatives
March 2002

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W
hile many studies have been conducted this conflict, none have attempted to c public perception over a period of time. The la identified as a significant void by Social Indicator unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The Canadian International Development Agency Governance and Institutional Strengthening Proje be conducted bi-monthly to gauge the impact of political developments on public attitudes towards

W
s have been conducted on various aspects of ne have attempted to capture the changes in period of time. The lack of such a study was void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research licy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence to fill this lacuna. The study, funded by the Development Agency (CIDA) under the onal Strengthening Project, Sri Lanka (GISP), will to gauge the impact of local and international public attitudes towards the peace process.

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Peace Confidence Index
Executive Summary
of Poll Conducted from 12th to 18th M
O
BJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a n public confidence in the peace process using a set of standard unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of q economic and political developments in order to gauge publ which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, when collected over a period of time, wil makers a useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lan collective opinions of the masses are given due importance debate.
S
COPE
& M
ETHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire interviews amongst a 1,387 respondent sample distribute districts. Care has been taken to reflect the actual ethnograp respondent sample other than the 3 districts in which opinion surveys the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and borde importance of ascertaining the opinions of those directly Furthermore, a structured questionnaire was used in the ga respondents.
The entirety of the Northern province, barring the welfare ce in the survey due to inaccessibility as well as problems of logi Areas with a high-concentration of Tamils, like Batticaloa, Tri be fully covered.
Six waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, Jun 2001 and January 2002. The latest wave, the results of was conducted in March 2002. The results of these comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key is war and peace to the proscription of the LTTE. The results are

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Executive Summary
cted from 12th to 18th March 2002
. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of s using a set of standardised questions which will remain er is to use a set of questions related to recent social, in order to gauge public opinion in the peace process, ne wave to another.
r a period of time, will provide civil society and policy pinions of the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the given due importance and incorporated into the policy
uctured questionnaire administered through face-to-face dent sample distributed throughout 17 administrative ct the actual ethnographic makeup of the country in the istricts in which opinion was not surveyed. In addition, SI sons (IDPs) and border village communities, given the ions of those directly affected by the on-going war. aire was used in the gathering of information from the
e, barring the welfare centres in Vavuniya, is not covered well as problems of logistics related to the on-going war. mils, like Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Amparai could not
onducted in May, June, September and November t wave, the results of which are in this publication, . The results of these six waves offer us data for a opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of he LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

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Peace Confidence Index
K
EY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMEN
POLL
• President expresses concern over reports that the LT forced recruitment of children despite the cessation o negotiations.
• The Vavuniya - Trincomalee road and the A9 highway to
• European Union & Singapore express their willingness to work in the NE & development in Sri Lanka in the event
• The nation assured by the Power & Energy Minister of crisis within the next two months.
• During a visit to Singapore the Prime Minster said that in would commence by March or April 2002 with Norwegia
• Defence budget cut.
• Signing of the Ceasefire Agreement between the G Agreement is welcomed by India, USA, UK and Japan as & society leaders.
• Members of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLM Agreement between the Government & LTTE arrive in S
• Prime Minister declares that a referendum will be held to on the agreement reached following talks with the LTTE.
• Sinhala Jathika Sangamaya & National Joint Committee of the Court of Appeal against the Government-LTTE signe
• President at odds with the Government over the signing
• More than 100 well known world personalities, headed express their collective support for peace in Sri Lanka.
• Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) claims the Ceasefire Ag gain international recognition for Tamil Eelam.
• In Parliament the Prime Minister says that the agreement aimed at arriving at a final political solution and the for north and east.
• Government removes travel restrictions to Tamils trave and vice versa.
• LTTE prepares to open political offices in areas cont (Vavuniya, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Mannar & Amparai).

er reports that the LTTE is continuing the large scale despite the cessation of hostilities and plans for peace
and the A9 highway to Killinochchi reopened.
ress their willingness to support large scale rehabilitation n Sri Lanka in the event of a peaceful solution.
r & Energy Minister of a definite solution to the power s.
rime Minster said that initial ‘talks on talks’ with the LTTE pril 2002 with Norwegian facilitation
ement between the Government & the LTTE. The , USA, UK and Japan as well as the Maha Sangha, religious
onitoring Mission (SLMM) to monitor the Ceasefire ment & LTTE arrive in Sri Lanka.
ferendum will be held to obtain the consent of the nation ing talks with the LTTE.
nal Joint Committee of Sri Lanka file a writ application in overnment-LTTE signed Ceasefire Agreement.
rnment over the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement.
ld personalities, headed by Arch Bishop Desmond Tutu, or peace in Sri Lanka.
claims the Ceasefire Agreement will enable the LTTE to Tamil Eelam.
says that the agreement was a ceasefire agreement & not ical solution and the forces will be kept on alert in the
trictions to Tamils travelling from Vavuniya to Colombo
al offices in areas controlled by the Sri Lankan Army
e, Mannar & Amparai).
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NAL DEVELOPMENTS
I
NFORMING THE OPINION

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Peace Confidence Index
• Reports of the LTTE charging civilians in the Vanni a 30 ernment despite the Ceasefire Agreement.
• US Embassy urges the LTTE to honour the Ceasefire received credible reports that the LTTE was engaging i the agreement.
• Prime Minister expected to visit Washington DC soon with President Bush.
• Prime Minister visits Jaffna and meets with US Assistant S Affairs, also visiting Jaffna.
• The US will consider de-proscribing the LTTE based o process and giving up its demands for a separate state.
• LTTE leader issues a strict warning to his followers Agreement will be severely punished.
• Train services between Colombo & Valachchenai comme
• JVP launches a massive sit-in protest against the Ceasefire
• Anton Balasingham expected to arrive in Sri Lanka at the

vilians in the Vanni a 30% tax on goods sent by the Gov- greement.
honour the Ceasefire Agreement and claims to have he LTTE was engaging in activities that could jeopardize
t Washington DC soon for talks on the peace process
eets with US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian
ibing the LTTE based on its commitment to the peace s for a separate state.
rning to his followers that violators of the Ceasefire hed.
& Valachchenai commence.
est against the Ceasefire Agreement.
rrive in Sri Lanka at the end of March.
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Peace Confidence Index
S
ELECTED
F
INDINGS
• While the perception of peace meaning ethnic harmony s November 2001 to 54.1% in March 2002, the perception decline from 18.3% in January 2002 to 9.8% in March 2002
• The perception that war is a means of achieving peace c 16.8% in June 2001 to 2.7% in March 2002.
• The findings in March 2002 indicate an increase in optim soon in Sri Lanka - up from 10.6% in June 2001 to 24.8% optimism is predominantly amongst the Tamils and Muslim
• A significant increase in optimism can be observed amongs will come about soon to Sri Lanka (5.9% in September 200
• For a majority of Sri Lankans the root causes of the war a discrimination against Tamils (26%).
• In March 2002 a majority of Sri Lankans feel the war can b in Sri Lanka though peace talks (85%) rather than throug peace talks continues to increase from 59.1% in May 2001 establishing peace has declined.
• In the March 2002 poll, 53.7% perceive that total victory c in this war - a view that has increased from 49.3% in Januar the Muslims (69.2%) and Tamils (69.8%).
• Overall the opinion that the Government is committed to continues to rise in March 2002 (61.8%) in comparison t September 2001 (43.8%) and November 2001 (44%).
• Although from September 2001 to March 2002 the o committed to bring about peace through negotiations has (46.4% to 57.3%), Tamils (23.3% to 79.9%) and Up-country decrease in the same is detected amongst the Muslims (86%
• There is a striking increase in the belief that the LTTE is co through talks - from 9.8% in November 2001 to 27.3% in the Sinhalese share this view, though this is an increase fro
• 44.6% of Sri Lankans believe that the Government would commitment to peace, which is the predominant view hel (55.6%) and Sinhalese (45.1%).
• The findings indicate a further rise from 64.2% in January the view that the Government should declare a ceasefire fo
• 79.9% of Sri Lankans feel that both parties should decla agreement, indicating a continued support for a bilateral ce
• In March 2002 49.7% of Sri Lankans are against the

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eaning ethnic harmony shows an increase from 46.1% in h 2002, the perception of peace as feeling safe shows a
to 9.8% in March 2002.
ns of achieving peace continues its steady decline from ch 2002.
te an increase in optimism that peace will come about in June 2001 to 24.8% in March 2002. This increase in t the Tamils and Muslims.
can be observed amongst the Tamils who feel that peace
(5.9% in September 2001 to 67.8% in March 2002).
oot causes of the war are communal politics (33.4%) and .
kans feel the war can be ended and peace brought about 5%) rather than through war (8.7%). The confidence in rom 59.1% in May 2001, while confidence in a war effort
eive that total victory cannot be achieved by either party ed from 49.3% in January 2002 and exists largely amongst .8%).
rnment is committed to find peace through negotiations (61.8%) in comparison to it remaining relatively static in
mber 2001 (44%).
to March 2002 the opinion that the Government is hrough negotiations has increased amongst the Sinhalese 79.9%) and Up-country Tamils (64.9% to 92.3%), a sharp mongst the Muslims (86% to 70.1%).
elief that the LTTE is committed to bringing about peace mber 2001 to 27.3% in March 2002. Only 19.3% amongst gh this is an increase from 13.4% in January 2002.
the Government would go in for talks as a result of its e predominant view held amongst the Up-country Tamils
from 64.2% in January 2002 to 67.7% in March 2002 in uld declare a ceasefire for peace talks.
th parties should declare a ceasefire through a mutual upport for a bilateral ceasefire.
nkans are against the deproscription of the LTTE to

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Peace Confidence Index
commence negotiations. The overall percentage of Sri Lank the LTTE declined further from 56.3% in January 2002.
• In March 2002 just over half the Sri Lankan population (5 Government’s decision to lift the restrictions on certain e medicine, to the Vanni as a prelude to peace talks.
• 74.9% of the population do not identify the Tamil commun the Tamils identify the Tamil community and the LTTE as January 2002. From September 2001 to March 2002, there the Sinhalese (70.7% to 80.6%) who do not identify the T one.
• In March 2002 the findings reveal a slight decrease (57.3 2002) in the opinion that a LTTE cadre is an enemy, as opp June 2001 to January 2002. The view that an LTTE cadre amongst the Sinhalese.
• A majority (82.6%) continues to express their approval o going in for peace talks.
• On the other hand, the high rate of disapproval amongst Sr the LTTE engaging in peace talks whilst fighting continue slight increase from 65.9% in January 2002.
• When asked in March 2002 who should be involved in ne should be only between the Government and the L considerably since January 2002 (33.9%).
• In March 2002, 32.5% and 20.9% of Sri Lankans feel th involvement is both necessary and will add a positive impac north east war, but these figures have declined since Jan were 35.8% and 28.9% respectively.
• Of the 81.4% of the Sri Lankans aware of Norway, most a them to the Sri Lankan peace process. This high rate of ap Up-country Tamils (85.7%), Tamils (89.9%) and Muslims (6 amongst whom only 43.3% are of the same view. It should Muslims and Up-country Tamils, the approval ratings h January 2002 - from 80.3% to 65.8% and 95.9% to 85.7% re
• In March 2002, the motivation for people to join the economic hardship (70.2%) and the need to defend the revenge (2.2%).
• In contrast 46.3% in March 2002, an increase from 27.2% are forced to join the LTTE.
• Overall 32.5% of those who are aware of the signing of th this agreement because they feel an end to the war is nece

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ll percentage of Sri Lankans against the deproscription of .3% in January 2002.
Sri Lankan population (56.5%) continues to approve the restrictions on certain essential items, including food and
to peace talks.
ntify the Tamil community and the LTTE as one. 40.3% of munity and the LTTE as one, an increase from 24.3% in 1 to March 2002, there is an increase in opinion amongst o do not identify the Tamil community and the LTTE as
l a slight decrease (57.3%, down from 61.9% in January adre is an enemy, as opposed to the steady increase from iew that an LTTE cadre portrays an enemy exists largely
xpress their approval of the Government and the LTTE
f disapproval amongst Sri Lankans of the Government and whilst fighting continues in March 2002 (69.5%), with a ry 2002.
should be involved in negotiations only 21.6% feel that it overnment and the LTTE, a figure which has fallen 3.9%).
of Sri Lankans feel that an international third party’s will add a positive impact to bring about a solution to the have declined since January 2002, for which the figures .
are of Norway, most approve of the assistance given by ess. This high rate of approval exists chiefly amongst the (89.9%) and Muslims (65.8%), rather than the Sinhalese, the same view. It should also be noted that amongst the
the approval ratings have considerably dropped from % and 95.9% to 85.7% respectively.
for people to join the armed forces continues to be he need to defend the motherland (64.5%) rather than
an increase from 27.2% in January 2002, feel that people
are of the signing of the ceasefire agreement approve of end to the war is necessary for people to live in peace.

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Peace Confidence Index
• A majority (63.9%) believe the media reports of the consultation between the President and the Prime Ministe viewpoint shared amongst 79.2% of Tamils and 65.1% of Sin
• 53.5% of Sri Lankans who believe such reports suggest overcome in the future if there is a formal agreement betw Minister about the peace process and signing agreements.
• 71.4% Sri Lankans believe the media reports of the LTT Furthermore more than 86.2% of the population believe in in child conscription believe that it will have a negative imp
• 63.1% Sri Lankans are aware of the Government’s plans to solution to the current power crisis. 76.8% approve t stations in Sri Lanka as a solution to the current power cris
For further information please
Azra Abdul Cader or Pradeep P
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternative
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: cpapoll@diamon Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpa

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media reports of the controversy over the levels of t and the Prime Minister over the ceasefire agreement, a f Tamils and 65.1% of Sinhalese.
such reports suggest that such a predicament can be a formal agreement between the President and the Prime nd signing agreements.
dia reports of the LTTE engaging in child conscription. he population believe in the reports of the LTTE engaging will have a negative impact on the peace process.
Government’s plans to establish coal power stations as a crisis. 76.8% approve the establishment of coal power o the current power crisis in Sri Lanka.
er information please contact:
bdul Cader or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator tre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 5 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

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Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social resea conducts polls on socio-economic and political iss
Operating under the Board of Directors of Alternatives (CPA), SI came to life in Septem longstanding vacuum for a permanent, profess polling facility in Sri Lanka.
Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a mea majority of the public can express their opinions o Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social is a means through which public opinion can influ debate.
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alterna 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: c Fax: 370475 Web: h

independent social research organisation, which conomic and political issues.
oard of Directors of the Centre for Policy came to life in September 1999, and filled a r a permanent, professional and independent a.
of empowerment, a means by which the silent express their opinions on issues affecting them. t surveys on key social issues, thereby providing public opinion can influence the public policy
ublished by:
ocial Indicator
entre for Policy Alternatives 05, 5th Lane, olombo 3, ri Lanka.
el: 370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net ax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org