Page 1
An Opinion Poll On Peace
Peace Confidence Index (P
So
© 2002 Social Indicator ? Centre for Po

pinion Poll On Peace
ace Confidence Index (PCI)
Social Indicator
dicator ? Centre for Policy Alternatives
July 2002

Page 2
W
hile many studies have been conducted this conflict, none have attempted to c public perception over a period of time. The la identified as a significant void by Social Indicator unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The Canadian International Development Agency Governance and Institutional Strengthening P (GISP), will be conducted bi-monthly to gauge t international political developments on public peace process.

W
s have been conducted on various aspects of ne have attempted to capture the changes in period of time. The lack of such a study was void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research licy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence to fill this lacuna. The study, funded by the Development Agency (CIDA) under the utional Strengthening Programme, Sri Lanka d bi-monthly to gauge the impact of local and velopments on public attitudes towards the

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Peace Confidence Index
Introduction
O
BJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a n
public confidence in the peace process using a set of standard
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of q
economic and political developments in order to gauge publ
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide
useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity
opinions of the masses are given due importance and incorpor
S
COPE
& M
ETHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire
interviews amongst a 1,725 respondent sample. The 17 adm
provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern province
control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya an
weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the
surveyed.
Seven waves of the PCI study were conducted in
November 2001 and January, March and May 2002. T
which are in this publication, was conducted in July
waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing pub
ranging from perceptions of war and peace to the proscript
subject to a 3% margin of error.

Page 3
Introduction
. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
s using a set of standardised questions which will remain
er is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
in order to gauge public opinion in the peace process,
ne wave to another.
iod of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
f the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective
mportance and incorporated into the policy debate.
uctured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
nt sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven
d the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government
incomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar were surveyed. Data is
aphic composition of the districts in which the sample was
were conducted in May, June, September and
rch and May 2002. The latest wave, the results of
s conducted in July 2002. The results of these eight
e study on changing public opinion regarding key issues,
peace to the proscription of the LTTE. The results are

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Peace Confidence Index
Executive Summary Of Poll Conducted fr
July 2002
• There is increased confidence amongst the T commitment of the government to negotiatio perception held by the Sinhalese regarding the LTT tiations.
• The level of awareness of the terms of the Ceas remains constant.
• There is cautious optimism about the durability o persistence in the lack of confidence along ethnic li the LTTE and the Government to abide by the term
• Since March 2002, there is a noticeable increase in monitoring mission. Since March 2002 however, uncertainty over the effectiveness of the Sri L (SLMM), especially amongst Sinhalese and Muslims.
• There is a continued lack of convergence of opin LTTE control of the proposed interim administratio
• Divergence in opinion along ethnic lines, rega abduction and extortion by the LTTE exists along ethnic lines of taxation by the LTTE.
For further information please
Azra Abdul Cader or Pradeep P
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternative
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: cpapoll@diamon Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpa

Page 4
y Of Poll Conducted from 11th to 20th
July 2002
idence amongst the Tamil community in the vernment to negotiations in contrast to the halese regarding the LTTE’s commitment to nego-
f the terms of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA)
m about the durability of the CFA. There is a onfidence along ethnic lines of the commitment of
ent to abide by the terms of the CFA.
a noticeable increase in the perceived need for a March 2002 however, there is also significant ctiveness of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission t Sinhalese and Muslims.
of convergence of opinion along ethnic lines on sed interim administration.
long ethnic lines, regarding the allegations of y the LTTE exists along with an awareness across the LTTE.
r information please contact:
bdul Cader or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator tre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 5 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

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Peace Confidence Index
KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELO
OPINION POLL
• Four Mahanayakes issue a joint statement pledging their s in Sri Lanka.
• At a passing out ceremony of 436 trained LTTE cadres Karuna says that the LTTE is providing training to its cadre
• Amidst widespread allegations of child conscription, UNIC given a fresh assurance that it will not recruit anyone below
• The President’s foreign affairs advisor Mr. Lakshman Kadi can be lifted only if the LTTE assures that it will come to th
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) meet Bernard G Secretariat and Minister Milinda Moragoda to discuss app investigate alleged assault of LTTE personnel in the Jaffna is
• Mr. V. Anandasangaree is appointed the new leader Pararajasingham as Vice-President, following the demise of
• The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) announces plans to to demand wage hikes.
• Clashes erupt between Muslim and Tamil groups in Valach
• The Government bans demonstrations and imposes curfew result of the above.
• The LTTE leader tells his cadres in the East to observe the (MOU) between him and the SLMC leader.
• The Prime Minister asks for more time to put the econom
• The Finance Minister announces that the implementation o deferred from 1st July 2002 to 1st August 2002.
• The Government announces a series of measures aimed at
• The SLMM releases a statement that lists ceasefire viola forces.
• Diesel and petrol prices reduced and essential items includ in a relief package announced by the Finance Minister.
• PA and JVP parliamentarians protest in Parliament on t province.
• Indian Member of Parliament and Leader of Marumalar (MDMK) Mr. Gopalaswamy, popularly known as 'Vaiko', police under a tough anti-terror law for supporting the LTT

atement pledging their support for peace & development
6 trained LTTE cadres, LTTE Eastern military leader ding training to its cadres to face the eventuality of war.
hild conscription, UNICEF announces that the LTTE has not recruit anyone below 18 yrs to its armed forces.
isor Mr. Lakshman Kadirgama says the ban on the LTTE es that it will come to the negotiating table.
(SLMM) meet Bernard Gnetilleke, Chairman of the Peace oragoda to discuss appointing a special commission to personnel in the Jaffna islands.
inted the new leader of the TULF and Mr. Joseph
following the demise of Mr. M. Sivasithamparam.
VP) announces plans to launch an all-island general strike
Tamil groups in Valachchenai.
tions and imposes curfew in certain areas of the East as a
the East to observe the Memorandum Of Understanding
leader.
time to put the economy back on track.
at the implementation of Value Added Tax (VAT) will be August 2002.
es of measures aimed at reducing the prices of essentials.
that lists ceasefire violations by the LTTE and Security
nd essential items including medicines exempted from tax
e Finance Minister.
test in Parliament on the situation in the Northeast
Leader of Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazagham larly known as 'Vaiko', is arrested by the Tamil Nadu w for supporting the LTTE.
Page 5
ATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS INFORMING THE

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Peace Confidence Index
• Sri Lankan Tamil political parties call on the Indian gove Tamil Nadu politician Y. Gopalaswamy who was arrested outspoken support for the LTTE. The Tamil National Allia Mr. R. Sampanthan issued a statement in Colombo condem Mr. Gopalaswamy.
• SLMM Chief accuses the LTTE of seriously violating the C the LTTE endangered the peace process by forcibly holdin were inspecting.
• Members of the SLMM assert that they would have to re tions after the LTTE forcibly hold two of their monitors inspecting.
• Leading diplomats from the European Union meet w Thamilselvan in Kilinochchi.
• Protests in the NE as a result of the arrest of Vaiko by pol
• President meets Prime Minister in crucial meeting to iron o
• Prime Minister completes a five day official visit to the Unit
• No confidence motion against the Minister of Defence shortly by the Opposition.
• The Minister of Defence says that the Government is com from temples and schools in the North-East as stated in th
• President of Pakistan General Pervez Musharraf visits Sri La

call on the Indian government to secure the release of amy who was arrested by the Tamil Nadu police for his The Tamil National Alliance through its general secretary ent in Colombo condemning the arrest and detention of
seriously violating the Ceasefire Agreement and says that ocess by forcibly holding 2 monitors aboard a vessel they
they would have to rethink the concept of naval opera-
two of their monitors on board a vessel they were
ropean Union meet with LTTE political wing leader
e arrest of Vaiko by police in TN.
crucial meeting to iron out differences.
y official visit to the United States of America.
e Minister of Defence to be presented in Parliament
the Government is committed to pulling out its troops orth-East as stated in the Ceasefire Agreement.
ez Musharraf visits Sri Lanka.
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Page 7
%
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace
80
70
63.5
68.5
60
50.6
53.2
50
%
40
42.7
32.9
30
20
15.8
17.3
12.9
9.8
22.2
27.3
10
0
May '01 June '01 September
'01
November '01
January '02
March '0
60
50
48
40
35.8
37.5
27
June '01 September
'01
33
%
30
35.5 28.9
29.6
24.5 20
19.7
18.6
17.6
10
14.5
16.2
9.7
12.2
8
0
7.1
9.5
7.4
4.5 4.2
3
November
January '02 March '02 May ' '01
Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for ta
50
45
44.9
40
35
31.3
34.6
29.1 27.3
25.1
24.5
2 19.1
15.2
14.9
14
6.6
June '01 September
'01
31 30
27.9 25
20
18.7
18.3
22.4
20.4 1 15.9
13.8
24
15
16.7
14.9
15.4
12.3
14.6
15.5
16.9
13.9
8.9
0
18
10
12.5
12.8
5
8.5
November '01
January '02 March '02 May '0
Peace Confidence Index
Why do you think that the Government goes in f
39 39.5
33.4
18
11.9
1
15.5
19.9 19.8
41.7
24.
8.4
44.6

overnment goes in for talks ? [Multiple Answers]
48.8 44.6
45.3
Commitment to peace
Economic hardship
28.9
33.2
32.4
24.1
28.9
International pressure
19.8
Realisation that this war cannot 17.2
be won
12.2
12.4
To fool the people
11.9 8
10.6
Lack of manpower 4.2
3.5
4.3
2 March '02 May '02 July '02
t the LTTE goes in for talks ? [Multiple Answer]
12.4
Commitment to peace
Economic hardship 31.5
25.1
24.5
24.7
27.7
27.4
International pressure
20.4 16.9
13.9
23.4 19 18.6
23.9 18.2 18.1
Realisation that this war cannot be won
12.8
14.4 To fool the people
Lack of manpower
March '02 May '02 July '02
mitted to find peace through talks.
5
42.7
45.7
27.5
22.2
39.5
January '02
32.9
Agree
Disagree
27.3 25.7
March '02 May '02 July '02
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Page 8
I think the Government is committed to find p
80
70
60
50.2 53
58
50
43.8 44
%
40
31.4 30
23.8
22.5
24.5 20
11.9 10
0
May '01 June '01 September
'01
What is your understanding/awareness the ceasefire agreement between the
the LTTE ? 60
50
53
56.1
53.4
44.9 40
43.1
41.3
%
30
20
10
3.8
2.2
1.3 0
March '02 May '02 July '02
Peace Confidence Index
%
When will there be peace in Sri Lanka
80
72.9 70
41.8
6.1 0
September '01
67.9
67.8
60
50
44.5
50
40
30
30.6
20
13.7
23.5
10
5.9
9
2.3
3.4
1.2
November
January '01
'02
November '01
March '02 May '02
January '02 M

s committed to find peace through talks.
44
69.8 70.2
58
61.8
24.5
11.9
9.8
9.1
Agree
Disagree
be peace in Sri Lanka - Tamil Opinion
67.8
50.8
50.6
1.2
7.2
rstanding/awareness of the contents in eement between the Government and
the LTTE ?
53.4
44.9
.2
1.3
12
ember '01
January '02 March '02 May '02 July '02
Soon
41.8
37.5
Never 30.6
23.5
Do not know
3 3.4
ary March '02 May '02 July '02
56.1
Fully understand/Aware
41.3
Understand/Aware to some extent
Not at all
'02 July '02
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Page 9
%
What is your opinion of the need for an internation
solve the North East war in S
40
38
35.8 35
32.6
32.5
30
28.9
25
21.8
24.2
20.9 20
15
16.8
16
16.5
14.2
10
10 9.9
11.3
11.3
9.6
9.2
10.3
5.4 5
0
September '01 November '01 January '02 March '02 M
Peace Confidence Index
What do you think of the longevity of the
50 45
43.1 40
40.8
35
37.3
3
30
32.5
%
25
.
20
23.9
21.7 15 10 5 0
March '02 May '02 July '
Please tell me if you believe or do not accusation levelled against the LTTE of
abductions ?
National
16.4
79.8
Up-country Tamil
25.6
66.7
Muslim
20.3
8.6
87
0 20 40 60 80
%
76.5
Tamil
41.8
55.7
Sinhala

the longevity of the ceasefire agreement ?
21.7
21.7
The ceasefire
40.8
39.3
agreement will last
.3
38.6
The ceasefire .
agreement will not last
Do not know/Not sure
'02 July '02
eed for an international third party's involvement to
North East war in Sri Lanka ?
28.8
0.9
ou believe or do not believe the
against the LTTE of engaging in abductions ?
87.7
Is essential 32.5
32.5
30.9
Will add a positive 29
impact
20.9
Will have no impact
14.2
13.1
Will add a negative
13.2
impact
10.3
9.6
10.2
Is not essential 5.4
3.2
2.1 0.7
Do not know
March '02 May '02 July '02
79.8
55.7
66.7
60 80 100
%
I do not believe this
76.5
accusation
.8
I believe this accusation
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Page 10
%
I think the Sri Lanka monitoring mission i monitoring of the ceasefire agre
40 35
33.1
35.5
31.4
30
26.1 25
21.3 %
20
15.7 15 10 5 0
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
Disagree
Peace Confidence Index
What is your opinion on the need for a monitoring
CFA to succeed ?
45
40
37.9
39.4
39.
35
31.2
33.
30
26.7
25
20
15
10
10.3 7.3
5.6
6.7 5
4.2 0
1.4
1.9 4.6
4.1 5.2
1.9
March '02 May '02 July '02
Do you approve or disapprove of the L complete control of the proposed North
administration ?
Up-country Tamil
10.4
51 37
71.7 2.3
12.4
0 20 40 60 80 100 1
%
95.4 Muslim
0.9
2.9
7.5 Tamil
12.6
77.1
Sinhala

need for a monitoring mission for the
to succeed ?
39.3
33.6
4.1 5.2
Is essential
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Is not essential
6.7
Will be a threat to the
1.9
sovereignty of Sri Lanka July '02
monitoring mission is effective in its of the ceasefire agreement.
.4
21.3
19.3 15.7
14.6
e nor Disagree Do not know
May '02 July '02
r disapprove of the LTTE having f the proposed North East interim dministration ?
77.1
71.7
95.4
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove Approve
0 80 100 120
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Peace Confidence Index
Please tell me if you believe or do no accusation levelled against the LTTE o
abductions ?
National
16.4
41.8
0 20 40 60 80
%
Please tell me if you believe or do no accusation levelled against the LTTE o
extortion ?
43.3
79.8
Up-country Tamil
25.6
66.7
Muslim
20.3
76.5
Tamil
55.7
Sinhala
8.6
National
15.2
0 20 40 60 80
%
Are you aware that the LTTE levies taxes in
10
81.
Up-country Tamil
28.9
64.1
Muslim
17.6
79.7
Tamil
52.5
Sinhala
7.8
National
12.2
Up-country Tamil
27.4
Muslim
9.3
Tamil
26.8
Sinhala
0 20 40 60
%

you believe or do not believe the d against the LTTE of engaging in
abductions ?
79.8
66.7
55.7
87.7
60 80 100
%
I do not believe this
76.5
accusation
41.8
I believe this accusation
you believe or do not believe the d against the LTTE of engaging in
extortion ?
81.1
64.1
I do not believe this accusation
79.7
I believe this
52.5
accusation 43.3
88.7
60 80 100
%
LTTE levies taxes in the North East ?
86.1
.4
8
88.8
40 60 80 100
%
69.4
No 89.5
Yes
66.2
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