கவனிக்க: இந்த மின்னூலைத் தனிப்பட்ட வாசிப்பு, உசாத்துணைத் தேவைகளுக்கு மட்டுமே பயன்படுத்தலாம். வேறு பயன்பாடுகளுக்கு ஆசிரியரின்/பதிப்புரிமையாளரின் அனுமதி பெறப்பட வேண்டும்.
இது கூகிள் எழுத்துணரியால் தானியக்கமாக உருவாக்கப்பட்ட கோப்பு. இந்த மின்னூல் மெய்ப்புப் பார்க்கப்படவில்லை.
இந்தப் படைப்பின் நூலகப் பக்கத்தினை பார்வையிட பின்வரும் இணைப்புக்குச் செல்லவும்: Peace Confidence Index 2002.09

Page 1
An Opinion Poll On Peace
Peace Confidence Index (P
TOP-LINE RESULTS
© 2002 Social Indicator ? Centre for Po
Septe

pinion Poll On Peace
ace Confidence Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
Social Indicator
September 2002
dicator ? Centre for Policy Alternatives

Page 2
W
hile many studies have been conducted this conflict, none have attempted to c public perception over a period of time. The la identified as a significant void by Social Indicator unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The Canadian International Development Agency Governance and Institutional Strengthening Proje be conducted bi-monthly to gauge the impact of political developments on public attitudes towards

W
s have been conducted on various aspects of ne have attempted to capture the changes in period of time. The lack of such a study was void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research licy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence to fill this lacuna. The study, funded by the Development Agency (CIDA) under the onal Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka, will to gauge the impact of local and international public attitudes towards the peace process.

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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
E
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
(PCI) T
OP
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX -L
INE
R
ESULTS
THE PERCEPTION OF WAR AND PEACE
SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT
CONFIDENCE
THE PEACE PROCESS
INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY FACILITATION
NORWEGIAN FACILITATION
INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT
• R
ECENT
D
EVELOPMENTS
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION
INTERIM ADMINISTRATION
LTTE ABDUCTION, EXTORTION & TAXATION
PEACE TALKS IN THAILAND
19TH AMENDMENT
• A
NNEX
P
OLITICAL

dex
01 I
TERNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
02 E
04 I
DEX
(PCI) 06
AR AND PEACE 06
NFLICT 09
10
14
PARTY FACILITATION 15
ION 16
18
D
VELOPMENTS
19
G MISSION 19
N 22
ORTION & TAXATION 27
ND 30
38
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I
NTRODUCTION
O
BJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a n
public confidence in the peace process using a set of standard
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of q
economic and political developments in order to gauge publ
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide
useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity
opinions of the masses are given due importance and incorpor
S
COPE
& M
ETHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire
interviews amongst a 1,524 respondent sample. The 17 adm
provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern province
control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya an
weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the
surveyed.
Eight waves of the PCI study were conducted in
November 2001 and January, March, May and July
conducted in September 2002. This publication present
September 2002 survey.
The results of these nine waves offer us data for a comparative
regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and p
LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

Page 1
I
NTRODUCTION
. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
s using a set of standardised questions which will remain
er is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
in order to gauge public opinion in the peace process,
ne wave to another.
iod of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
f the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective
mportance and incorporated into the policy debate.
uctured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
nt sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven
d the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government
incomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar were surveyed. Data is
aphic composition of the districts in which the sample was
were conducted in May, June, September and
arch, May and July 2002. The latest wave was
This publication presents only the top-line results of the
s data for a comparative study on changing public opinion
rceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the
margin of error.

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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
• Addressing a national protest day campaign gathering at urges the President to use her powers to prevent the cr topple the UNF Government. (1st August 2002)
• The United States of America reviews the ban on the LTT 2002)
• Business leaders urge the Government and the Presid election. (8th August 2002)
• LTTE political wing leader Thamilselvan, speaking to satisfaction with the implementation of the Ceasefire A forward to the start of the peace talks. (8th August 2002)
• The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) insists that local East as scheduled on the 25th of September 2002, whil postponed until the interim administration for the North
• Presidential spokesman, Harim Pieris, at a press confe announcement that peace talks in Thailand are to comme 2002)
• Minister Milinda Moragoda and Director General of the ‘talks on talks’ with LTTE chief negotiator Dr. Anton Ba Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen, special envoy Erik Solh Jon Westborg were also present. (15th August 2002)
• The Government deproscribes the LTTE. (4th September 2
• The Cabinet at a special meeting unanimously approves a the Constitution. (7th September 2002)
• The Prime Minister pledges at the ‘Janabala Meheyuma’, with the peace process whatever the obstacles or difficult
• The Prime Minister visits New York to brief political and highlight investment opportunities in Sri Lanka. (13th Septe
• Peace talks begin in Sattahip, Thailand between the Gover
• In his opening speech at the official talks between the Constitutional Affairs Minister G.L. Peiris declares that th of power for the Tamils in the North and East provided was ensured. (16th September 2002)
• During peace talks the Government and the LTTE agree Force to look into High Security Zones, return of IDP 2002)
• The Norwegian facilitators and the chief negotiator of t international community for substantial funding to rebuild the peace process was linked to restoring normalcy in th
• Chief LTTE negotiator Dr. Anton Balasingham, at the response to a question that the LTTE deals with cate determination”, not secession or a separate state. Th aspirations of the Tamil people were not met, he added.
• The Prime Minister addresses the United Nations Genera

Page Index
2
NAL DEVELOPMENTS AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2002
y campaign gathering at Lipton Circus, Propaganda Secretary of the JVP owers to prevent the creation of a separate state in the northeast and
August 2002) iews the ban on the LTTE as a foreign terrorist organisation. (5th August
rnment and the President to arrive at a compromise and avoid an
amilselvan, speaking to visiting journalists in the Vanni, expresses tion of the Ceasefire Agreement and says that the LTTE was looking talks. (8th August 2002) SLMC) insists that local government elections be held in the North and f September 2002, while the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) wants it nistration for the North and East is in place. (14th August 2002) Pieris, at a press conference says that the President welcomes the Thailand are to commence on the 16th of September 2002. (14th August
Director General of the Peace Secretariat Bernard Goonetilleke hold egotiator Dr. Anton Balasingham in Oslo, Norway. Norwegian Deputy , special envoy Erik Solheim and Norwegian Ambassador to Colombo
(15 h August 2002) e LTTE. (4th September 2002) unanimously approves and decides to gazette the 19th Amendment to 002) e ‘Janabala Meheyuma’, organized by the Government, to forge ahead the obstacles or difficulties. (9th September 2002) ork to brief political and business leaders on the peace process and to s in Sri Lanka. (13th September 2002) iland between the Government and the LTTE. (16th September 2002) ficial talks between the Government and LTTE, in Sattahip, Thailand, .L. Peiris declares that the Government stood for maximum devolution orth and East provided the unity and territorial integrity of the country 2) ent and the LTTE agree to establish a Joint Committee and a Joint Task y Zones, return of IDPs and relief and rehabilitation. (17th September
he chief negotiator of the LTTE in separate statements appeal to the tantial funding to rebuild Sri Lanka's war-ravaged North and East saying restoring normalcy in the area. (17th September 2002)
n Balasingham, at the closing press conference in Thailand, states in LTTE deals with categories and concepts of “homeland” and “self- r a separate state. The latter would apply as a last resort if the ere not met, he added. (18th September 2002)
United Nations General Assembly in New York. (18th Septmeber 2002)
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• At the end of the Sattahip talks, the Norwegian facilita negotiations between the Sri Lankan Government and the the 3rd of November 2002, the 2nd to the 5th of Decemb (19th September 2002)
• The United States welcomes the successful outcome of th and the LTTE and pledges full support for the peace rehabilitation efforts. (19th September 2002)
• The 19th Amendment to the Constitution is presente Lokubandara. (19th September 2002)
• The Tamil National Alliance and civic action groups ur Prevention of Terrorism Act and release all suspects held
• The Government announces that the 2003 defence budg Rs 35.6 billion. (26th September 2002)
• The government exchanges 13 LTTE cadres for 7 forces p confidence building measure. (28th Septmeber 2002)

Page Index
3
, the Norwegian facilitators announce that the next three rounds of kan Government and the LTTE will take place on the 31st of October to to the 5th of December 2002 and the 6th to the 9th of January 2003.
successful outcome of the first round of talks between the Government support for the peace process and the relief, resettlement and the ber 2002) onstitution is presented to Parliament by Justice Minister W. J. M. 2)
civic action groups urge the Government to immediately repeal the release all suspects held under it. (24th Septmeber 2002)
the 2003 defence budget will reflect a reduction from Rs 51 billion to 02) TE cadres for 7 forces personnel with the LTTE at Omanthai as a
Septmeber 2002)
er 2002

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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CO
S
EPTEMBER TO
10TH O
CTOB
♦ The declining trend of people who say that peac Lanka is reversed in September 2002. A majority of is skeptical.
♦ The overwhelming support for peace talks remains
♦ While the belief that “the Government is commit has reduced, the percentage of people who do committed to find peace through talks” has decre same time, the belief that “the LTTE is committe held by the minority communities.
♦ Since May 2002 there is a steady decline in the belie to fool the people”. On the other hand, the comm won being cited as a reason for both parties “to increase.
♦ There is a decline in the opinion that only t
international third party should be involved in nego involvement is advocated mainly by the Muslim and
♦ Opinion of the belief that an international third pa
decline since January 2002. However those who impact” has increased since March 2002.
♦ The steadily declining trend in approval for Norwe
peace process is reversed in September 2002.
♦ A majority of Sri Lankans approve of Norway c
opinion is held mainly by the Tamils.
♦ Since July 2002, opinion has changed - from the SLM
adding a “positive impact”.
♦ A growing trend is observed in people who do “impartial” in its monitoring of the Ceasefire Agree majority amongst the Tamil and Up-country Tamil c
♦ There is a steady increase in opinion since May 200
the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) is not “effective”. Sinhala community, while many amongst the Muslim
♦ There is an overwhelming disapproval for th administration under the control of the LTTE amo overwhelming approval amongst the Tamils. Howe such a proposal prefer Sinhala and Muslim participa or Tamil representation.

Index
E OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
30TH ER TO
10TH O
CTOBER
2002
ople who say that peace will be established soon in Sri mber 2002. A majority of the Sinhala community however,
t for peace talks remains unchanged.
Government is committed to find peace through talks” tage of people who do not believe that “the LTTE is through talks” has decreased in September 2002. At the “the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks” is unities.
steady decline in the belief that the LTTE “goes in for talks he other hand, the common belief that the war cannot be son for both parties “to go in for talks”, shows a steady
he opinion that only the Government, LTTE and an hould be involved in negotiations. The widest spectrum of mainly by the Muslim and Up-Country Tamil communities.
an international third party is “essential”, shows a steady 2. However those who believe it would have a “positive e March 2002.
d in approval for Norwegian assistance in the Sri Lankan in September 2002.
s approve of Norway continuing to facilitate talks. This he Tamils.
s changed - from the SLMM being “essential” to the SLMM .
rved in people who do not believe that the SLMM is ng of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). However, a notable il and Up-country Tamil communities believe the contrary.
in opinion since May 2002 that the SLMM’s monitoring of (CFA) is not “effective”. This opinion is held mainly by the many amongst the Muslim community are uncertain.
ing disapproval for the establishment of an interim control of the LTTE amongst the Sinhalese, whilst there is ongst the Tamils. However, the people who approve of hala and Muslim participation in it, rather than solely LTTE
er 2002
Page 4

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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ In September 2002, most Tamils (77.5%) believe th of the Tamil people. Muslims (38.7%) and Up-count
♦ 80.3% of the Sri Lankans are aware of the peace tal
majority (83.6%) is not aware of the decisions taken
♦ More than half (52.1%) of those who are aware of
of the setting up of the Joint Committee and the Jo is held mainly by the Tamil community (80.2%).
♦ 44.2% of the Sri Lankans are aware of Dr Anton Ba does not connote a separate, independent state an regional autonomy. However, only 17.3% believe (Sinhala – 11.3%, Tamil – 61.6%, Muslim – 29.9%, Up
♦ A majority (70.1%) agrees with the President’s req part in the talks (Sinhala – 75.8%, Tamil – 31.8%, M 17.6%).
♦ Among the people who are aware of the 19
understanding of it (43.9%).
♦ 46% of the people, who have some understanding
of it. This approval comes mainly from the minor Muslim – 66.4%, Up-country Tamil – 75.4%, Sinhala
For further information p
Reshma Harjani or Pra
Social Indicato Centre for Policy Alt 105, 5th Lane Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: cpapoll@ Fax: 370475 Web: http://w

Index
Tamils (77.5%) believe the LTTE is the sole representative ms (38.7%) and Up-country Tamils (39.8%) concur.
re aware of the peace talks held in Thailand. However, the are of the decisions taken at the talks.
those who are aware of the decisions at the talks approve nt Committee and the Joint Task Force (JTF). This opinion l community (80.2%).
re aware of Dr Anton Balasingham’s statement that Eelam ate, independent state and that the LTTE would settle for ever, only 17.3% believe that it is a credible statement
1.6%, Muslim – 29.9%, Up-country Tamil – 30.4%).
with the President’s request that her representative take 75.8%, Tamil – 31.8%, Muslim – 70%, Up-country Tamil –
are aware of the 19
th
Amendment, a majority has no ).
ave some understanding of the 19th Amendment, approve s mainly from the minority communities (Tamil – 86.3%, ry Tamil – 75.4%, Sinhala – 39.9%).
further information please contact:
Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
0472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
er 2002
Page 5

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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDE
(
M
AY
2001 - S
EPTEMBER
20
T
HE
P
ERCEPTION OF
W
AR AND
P
EACE
What does ‘peace’ mean to you? [Multiple Answ
National Trend
70
60
63
54
52.7
54.5
50
49.2
46.1
%
40
36.7
34.7
35.9
35 37.5
3
30
24.7
35.7
32
20
21.6
29.3 29
25.9
10.4
15.3 16.2
11.2
18.3 10
14 9.8
0
May '01 September '01 January '02 May
Ethnic Breakdown
35
40.1 Up-country Tamil
20.9
32.3
22 Muslim
29
19.7
21.2 Tamil
21.2
39.4
44.4 Sinhala
12.9
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

C
ONFIDENCE
(PCI)
2001 - S
EPTEMBER
2002
D
P
EACE
to you? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
52.7
54.5
53.9 50.6
34.7
14.9
50.5
35
37.5
34.7 36.4
41.4
29
25.9
25.4
31.2
18.3
14.9 15.5 9.8
nuary '02 May '02 September '02
2
End of war
Ethnic Harmony
Feeling Safe
Freedom
Ethnic Breakdown
35
40.1 20.9
44.4
30 40 50 60 70
%
57.2
21.2
32.3
22
29
49.6
64.9 9.7
Freedom
21.2
Feeling safe
39.4
50.5
Ethnic Harmony End of war
I
NDEX
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What does ‘war’ mean to you? [Multiple Answe
National Trend
70
60
54.4 51.3
50.8 50
40
39.6
43.1
42.8
%
30
27.1
30.3
24.5 25.2
16.6
11.4
3.5
3.3
June '01 November '01 March '02 J
Ethnic Breakdown
1.9
23.9
26.4
22.9 20
21.5
20.3 15
17.1
21.5
12.3
18.2 21.2 0.3
7.8
0
16.7
10
16.8
12.4
10.9
9.8
12.9
16.4
8.6
2.7
13.6
Up-country Tamil
11.2
20.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
6
9.5
30.3
28.6
Muslim
11.7
23.5
7.5
15.5
60
3.1
12
10.6
Tamil
6.8 7.2
16.6
36.9
23.7
29.5
57.7 Sinhala
%

you? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
60.2 54.4
58.9
50.8
25.2
26.4
26.2 27.4
18.2
21.2 16.2 16.4
16.6
22.9
15.8
16.2
12.9
11.4
9.9 9.4 2.7
3.3 3.5
2.7
March '02 July '02
2
Means to achieving peace
Fighting for rights
Disharmony amongst races
Hindrance to economic growth/ Rise in cost of living
Death / Destruction
Terrorism
Ethnic Breakdown
62.4
36.9
57.7
40 50 60 70 80
%
Terrorism
Death / Destruction 60.2
Hindrance to economic growth/ Rise in cost of living
72.1
Disharmony amongst races
Fighting for rights
Means to achieving peace
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
When will there be peace in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
80
18.9
7.5
May '01 September
'01
71.3 70
63.8
60
53.9
54.5 57.9
57.2
50 %
40
30
0
Ethnic Breakdown
18.7
24.8
20
11 10
13.4 10.2 10.6
9.9
7.2
6.7
4.9
January
M '02
Up-country Tamil
2 2.4 2.5
8.1
23.7
Muslim
0 0.5
34.4
3.1
13.4
48.7
Tamil
0
1.3
3.2
3.6
37.8
1.2 1.8
5.2
8.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 6
%
52.5
Sinhala

in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
21.1
Soon
Never
Do not know
Ethnic Breakdown
7
52.5
0 40 50 60 70
%
60.5 34.4
Do not know Never Not in my life time 48.7
Within the next ten years 37.8
Within the next five years Soon
64.2
2
58.4 60 57.2
57.9
January '02
58.6
24.8 18.9
22.1
.2
24.8
6.7
4.9
6.8 9
7.6
May '02 September
'02
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
S
OLUTIONS TO THE
C
ONFLICT
How do you think we can end the war and
[Multiple Answers]
National Trend
100
90
85
87.2
8
59.1
18
0
May '01 September
'01
80.7 80
70
71.3
68.6
71.9
60
%
50
40
30
24.4
20
7.6
Ethnic Breakdown
8.6
19.9 20
9.9 10
1.3
0.8 1 0.9
1.1
7
0.8
1
January '02
May '02
Up-country Tamil
0.7 2
96.3
0.2
0.6
0 20 40 60 80 100 12
%
94.9 Muslim
0.2
93.8 Tamil
1.2
84.1 Sinhala
1.1

an end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
7
85
87.2
84.4
86
7.2
ary 2
Government defeating the LTTE
LTTE defeating the Government
.9
7.6
7
10.1
1.1 0.8 0.8
1
Peace talks
May '02 September
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
84.1
96.3
94.9
0 80 100 120
Peace talks
LTTE defeating the 93.8
Government
Government defeating the LTTE
2
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
C
ONFIDENCE
I think the Government is committed to find pe
National Trend
80
69 70
60
50.2
53
58
61.8
50
43.8 44 %
40
31.4 30
23.8
22.5
24.5
20
10
11.9
9.8
0
May '01 September '01 January '02 Ma
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamil
0
4.1
17.5
61.8
0 20 40 60 80
%
84
1 Muslim
13.8
12.6
76
12.3 Tamil
14.6
57.6
Sinhala

s committed to find peace through talks.
National Trend
69.8
70.2
58
61.8
63.7
9.1
12
15.1
Agree Disagree
24.5
11.9
9.8
January '02 May '02 September '02
Ethnic Breakdown
61.8
84.2
40 60 80 100
%
Disagree
76
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree 57.6
2
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace thr
National Trend
80
70
63.5
68.5
60
50.6
53.2
50
42.7
39.5 %
40
32.9
30
15.8
0
May '01 September '01 January '02 May '0
Ethnic Breakdown
19.6
22.2
20
17.3
12.9
9.8
27.3
25.7
10
Up-country Tamil
2.7 8
45.5
0 20 40 60 80
%
76.4
2 Muslim
24.1
22.4
57.8
7 Tamil
8.3
75.4
Sinhala

itted to find peace through talks.
National Trend
5
45.7 42.7
39.5 32.9
38.2
22.2
28.3 27.3
25.7
27.5
anuary '02 May '02 September '02
2
Agree Disagree
Ethnic Breakdown
76.4
1
75.4
45.5
40 60 80 100
%
Disagree
57.8
Neither agree nor disagree Agree
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the Government go Answers]
National Trend
60
50
44.6
48.8
45.3
40
39
%
37.5 30
35.8
39.5
41.7
35.5
33.2
32.4
33.4
27
28.9
29.6 18.6
24.5
19.9 19.8
9.7
June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02
Ethnic Breakdown
41
24.1
28.9 20
19.7
14.5
16.2
17.6
15.5 18
7.1
17.2 12.2
12.4
10
0
9.5
7.4
8.4
11.9
8
10.6
4.5 4.2 3.5 4.3
Up-country
0.7
3.3
Tamil
7.7
17
3.2
0 20 40 60 80
%
66.8
10.3 9.5
28.6
67.2
2.3
4.1
Muslim
15.3
45.3
22
36.3
45.9
1.6 1.5 Tamil
14.1
40.5
36.4
40.1
Sinhala

the Government goes in for talks? [Multiple
National Trend
42.1
24.1
Commitment to peace
.6
Economic hardship
International pressure
Realisation that this war cannot be won
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
thnic Breakdown
.1
48.8
45.3
8.9
33.2
32.4
10
32.5
9.8
24.1
28.9
17.2 2.2
12.4
1.9
8
10.6
8.8
4.2 3.5 4.3
3.2
h '02 July '02
66.8
60 80
67.2
Lack of manpower
To fool the people 45.3
45.9
Realisation that this war cannot be won International pressure
.5
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
2
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for tal
National Trend
50
45
44.9
40
35
31.3
34.6
31.5
30 %
25
29.1
20
18.7
27.3
27.9
25.1 22.4
24.5
27.7
24.7
23.4 27 23 18.3
19.1
15.2
15.4
14.9
15.5
18.1
14.4
6.6
June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02
Ethnic Breakdown
6.3
20.4
8.9
19 15.9
16.9
13.9
18.6
18.2
13.8
12.3
0
16.7 15
14.9
10
14.6
12.5
12.8
12.4
5
8.5
Up-country
0.5
8.7
Tamil
11.5 12
34.7
0
9.7
20.8
26.8
32.3
0 20 40 60
%
69
Muslim
6.3
17.2
22.8
22.8
23.5
26.1
4.8
Tamil
11.9 12.3 12.6
14
56
Sinhala

e LTTE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
14.6
Commitment to peace
31.5
Economic hardship
27.7
30.8 25.1
24.5 20.4 .9
13.9
24.7
23.4 27.4 23.9 19
18.2 18.6
18.1
22.5 20
International pressure
Realisation that this war cannot be won
12.8
14.4 12.4
10.3
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
ch '02 July '02
Ethnic Breakdown
56
13.1
34.7
8
40 60 80 %
Lack of manpower
69.9
To fool the people
Realisation that this war 1
cannot be won International pressure
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
32.3
2
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Page 17
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
T
HE
P
EACE
P
ROCESS
Who should be involved in negotiations?
National Trend
40
36.7
35
32.1
33.9
30
31.3
25.1
25.8 25
23
%
20
19
21.6
21.7
1
16.2 15
15.5
12.4
15.9
15.1
14.2
16.4
19.
13.5
14 15.5
12.1 1 10
5
4.3 4
4.8
2.1 2.1 2.5 0 May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02
Ethnic Breakdown
0.7
10.4
Up-country Tamil
1
12.5
5.4
7.7
14.9
40.2
Muslim
0
13.4
0.3
1
2.8 3.3
23
49.9
0
5.6
22.4 Tamil
0.9
9.5
16.7
20.4 21.2
Sinhala
2.3
3.9
6.3
9.4
12.7
14.8
17.6 18.3
0 20 %
40 60

n negotiations?
National Trend
33.9
25.8
21.6
21.7
19.9
16.4
16.6
4
15.5
12.1 6.6
.1
2.1 2.5 21.9 .2
19.1
11
2.4
1.9
y '02 May '02 September '02
2
Govt. and LTTE only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third party
No peace talks
Ethnic Breakdown
49.9 40.2
Do not know
No peace talks
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt. and LTTE only
40 60
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Page 18
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NTERNATIONAL
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
What is your opinion of the need for an in involvement to solve the North East war in Sri
National Trend
40
38
35.8 35
32.6
32.5 32.5 30.9
30
28.9
25
21.8
24.2
20.9
29
28.8
%
20
15
16.8
16
16.5
14.2
13.2
10 9.6
9.6
10.2
0
September '01 January '02 May '02 S
Ethnic Breakdown
18.8
13.1
10
11.3
9.9
11.3
9.2
10.3
5
5.4
3.2
2.1 0.7 0.9
9.4 Up-country Tamil
0.7 0
3.6
11.9
63.7
2.7 2.7
14.5
Muslim
1.6
17.4
56.5
Tamil
0 0.2
6.2 7
20.9
63.2
Sinhala
1.5
6.3
12.7
14.9
35.7
0 20 %
40 60 8

F Y
ACILITATION
f the need for an international third party’s North East war in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
26.1
Is essential
32.5 32.5 30.9
Will add a positive impact
20.9
Will have no impact
Will add a negative impact
Is not essential
Do not know
Ethnic Breakdown
63.2
31.9
29
28.8
14.2
13.1
13.2
14.2
10.3
9.6
11.6 10.2
3.2
2.1
5.4
0.7 0.9
1.4
May '02 September '02
63.7
.7
0 60 80
Do not know Is not essential Will add a negative impact 56.5
Will have no impact Will add a positive impact Is essential
2
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Page 19
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
N
ORWEGIAN
F
ACILITATION
Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace proce
National Trend
60
53.8
50
50.7
42.7 40
37
%
30
24.5
20.5 20
15.5
23.1
19.4 18 18
22.8
13.6 9.1 7.8 0
January '02 May '02
Ethnic Breakdown
36.9
17.9 10
Up-country
1
26.6
Tamil
7.7
23
26.6
0 20 40 60 80
%
64.7
20.4 Muslim
2.3
18.3
13.1
59
5.8 Tamil
3.6
5.8
84
Sinhala

ri Lankan peace process
National Trend
42.7
42.4 37
24.5
22.1 19.4 18
13.6
12.8
May '02 September '02
22.4 17.9
22.8
2
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
Do not know
Ethnic Breakdown
64.7
84.8
60 80 100 %
Do not know 59
Disapprove Neither approve nor disapprove Approve
Page 16

Page 20
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Norway continuing to facilitate talks.
National National Breakdown
Trend
45
45 40
41.3
41.3 40 35
35 30
30 25
25
21.8
2 20
20 15
15
13.6
13.6
10
10 5
5
0
0
Approve Approve Neither Neither approve approve nor
nor disapprove
disapprove
Disappr
Disa
Ethnic Breakdow
22.6
National
13.6
21.8
41.3
Up-country Tamil
4 4.7
27.6
7.2
23.5
13.8
25.6
36.2
0 20 40 60 8
%
63.7
Muslim
3.4
19.4
24.4
52.9
Tamil
3.4
5.3
Sinhala

ilitate talks.
National Trend
3.6
21.8
2
National Breakdown
13.6
22.6
pprove nor pprove
22.6
r approve nor sapprove
21.8
Disapprove Disapprove Do Do not not know know
Ethnic Breakdown
41.3
.4
.6
36.2 7.6
Do not know
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove Approve
40 60 80 100
%
63.7
52.9
83.3
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Page 21
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NDIA
’
S
I
NVOLVEMENT
What is your opinion of the need for India’ Lankan peace process?
National Trend
40
35
31.7
33.8
30
27
25
26.1 26.6
%
20
16.2
16.4
20.8
15
15.6 13.5
10
13.1
12.5
5.9
8.4
5
3.5
0
1.2
1.9
1.3
May '02 July '02 September '02
Ethnic Breakdow
5.8 Up-country Tamil
0.5 2 2.3
13.2
19.9
Muslim
3.9
1.3
15.1
13.3
16
1.3
8.1
13.8
16.9
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
47.6
Tamil
5.7
0.6 3
15.1 15.7
Sinhala
39.3

f the need for India’s involvement in the Sri
National Trend
33.8
20.8
1.3
Is essential
Will add a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will add a negative impact 15.6 13.5
Is not essential
Do not know 8.4
2 September '02
Ethnic Breakdown
.9
58.5
30 40 50 60 70
%
Do not know 65.7
Is not essential
Will add a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will add a positive impact
Is essential
39.3
47.6
2
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Page 22
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
R
ECENT
P
OLITICAL
D
EVELO
S
RI
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
If aware of the involvement of foreign mon ceasefire, what is your opinion of the need for s for the ceasefire agreement to succeed?
Ethnic Trend
17.5
National Trend
45
40
37.9
39.4
39.3
35
31.2
30
26.7
33.6
25 %
20
15
10
10.3 7.3
5.6
6.7
5
4.6 1.4
5.2 4.2 1.9 0
1.9
4.1
March '02 May '02 July '02 Septe
0
Up-country Tamil
0
3.6
2.1
3.2
2
4.1
6.6
9.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
84.9 0
Muslim
2.6 2.9
3.6
19.1
45.3
68.1
0
Tamil
0 0
1.5
11.3
82.4
Sinhala

P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
ION
ment of foreign monitors in monitoring the inion of the need for such a monitoring mission nt to succeed?
National Trend
39.3
40.5
Is essential
Will have a positive
33.6
impact
26.3
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Is not essential
6.7
8.4 5.2
1.9
4.1
5.8 3.8 1.7
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
July '02 September '02
Ethnic Trend
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
84.9
Is not essential
Will have a negative impact
68.1
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
82.4
Is essential
5.3
60 80 100
2
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Page 23
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is imp the ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
40
35.5 35
30
33.1
29
25
22.5
28.9
%
20
15
10
15.7
14.6
18
5
0
May '02 July '02 Septembe
Ethnic Breakdow
Up-country Tamil
1.1
8.2
20
68.7
Muslim
3.6 8
42.4
46.1
Tamil
2.7
5.4
13
7
Sinhala
19.2
30.9 23.4
26.4
0 20 40 %
60 80

itoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of
National Trend
29
31.7
Agree
28.9 .5
26.8 23.6
Neither agree nor disagree
18
17.8
Disagree
Do not know
July '02 September '02
Ethnic Breakdown
68.7
46.1
79
0 %
60 80 100
Do not know Disagree 42.4
Neither agree nor disagree Agree
2
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Page 24
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effe the ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
40
35.5 35
30
33.1
31.4
26.1 25 %
20
21.3 28.7 26 24.8
15
15.7 14.6
19.3
20.3
10
5
0
May '02 July '02 September '
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country
3.2
7.8
Tamil
24.2
22
28.4
23.4
0 20 40 %
60
62.8
Muslim
4.9
6.6
26.1
43.8
44.7
Tamil
4.5
7.5
16.1
7
Sinhala

nitoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of
National Trend
1.4
Agree 28.7 6.1
26 24.8
Neither agree nor disagree Disagree .3
20.3
Do not know
ly '02 September '02
Ethnic Breakdown
62.8
43.8
71.5
0 60 80
Do not know
44.7
Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
2
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Page 25
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NTERIM
A
DMINISTRATION
If you have heard of the proposal, do you appr proposal to set up an interim administration u North East?
National Trend
80
73 70
64.7
60
50
%
40
30
21.3
24.1
20
10
0
May '02 July '02 Septemb
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamil
26.2
17.8
0 20 40 %
60
62.2
Muslim
32.4
50.8
Tamil
3.8
Sinhala

proposal, do you approve or disapprove of the erim administration under LTTE control in the
National Trend
73
71.1
4.1
23.6
July '02 September '02
Approve
Disapprove
Ethnic Breakdown
6.2
62.2
50.8
82
78.5
40 %
60 80 100 32.4
Disapprove Approve
2
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Page 26
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you approve of such a proposal...
The LTTE should have complete control of t interim administration.
National Trend
70
60
50
47
51.6
40
38.9 %
30
33
20
7.2
0
May '02 July '02 Sept
Ethnic Breakdown
3.9
8.4 10
Up-country Tamil
26.3 21.6
47.8
0
80 3
0 20 40 60 80
%
73.5 Muslim
26.5
7.2 Tamil
17.4
73.4
Sinhala

roposal...
complete control of the proposed North East
National Trend
61.2
51.6
3
22.8
8.4
7
uly '02 September '02
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
Ethnic Breakdown
47.8
73.5
73.4
80.1
0 60 80 100
%
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove Approve
2
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Page 27
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you approve of such a proposal...
Other Tamil political parties should be include East interim administration.
National Trend
60
49.7 50
47.3
40
%
30
26.9
29.1
20
16.1 10
12.9
0
May '02 July '02 S
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamil
10.9
20
6
62 0.8
24.3
0 20 40 60
%
49.6 Muslim
18.5
31.9
13.9 Tamil
42.5 42.5
Sinhala

roposal...
ties should be included in the proposed North on.
National Trend
49.7
31.8
12
July '02 September '02
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
Ethnic Breakdown
.3
47.5
29.1
12.9
64.7
49.6
42.5
62.1
40 60 80
%
Disapprove
31.9
Neither approve nor disapprove Approve 42.5
2
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Page 28
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you approve of such a proposal...
The Muslim and Sinhalese communities shou proposed North East interim administration.
National Trend
80
70
65.4 66.2 60
50
%
40
30
20
16.8
18
10
8.9
0
8.9
May '02 July '02 Sep
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamil
10.9 7.1
6.1
8
0 20 40 60 80
%
69.3
3.6 Muslim
2.9
1.6
13.1 Tamil
43.4 42.4
Sinhala

roposal...
se communities should be represented in the rim administration.
National Trend
65.4
73.5
10.1
8.9
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove 18
Disapprove
7.6
uly '02 September '02
Ethnic Breakdown
69.3
43.4
80.4
40 60 80 100
%
Disapprove
93.5
Neither approve nor disapprove Approve 42.4
2
Page 25

Page 29
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the LTTE is the sole representative of th
National Trend
60
54.8 54.5
50
40
%
30
20
17.5 18
10
10.4 9.4
9.3
. 8.1
0
May '02 July '02 Septem
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamil
15.3
16.6
19.4
39.8
Muslim
12.7
19.5
24.7
38.7
Tamil
4.2
5.8
8.7
12.7
9.6 10
65.1
0 20 40 60 80
%
77.5
Sinhala

le representative of the Tamil community.
National Trend
4.5
56.8
16.8 12.9
ly '02 September '02
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
18
.3
.
Do not know
10.5
Ethnic Breakdown
9.8
77.5
65.1
60 80 100 %
Do not know
8.7
Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
2
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Page 30
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
LTTE A
BDUCTION
, E
XTORTION
& T
AXATION
Please tell me if you believe or do not believ against the LTTE of engaging in abductions?
Please tell me if you believe or do not
levelled against the LTTE of engag
90 80
79.8
75.7
70 60
%
50 40 30 20
16.4
10 0
I believe this accusation I do not believ
Ethnic Breakdown
8.3 Up-country Tamil
29.3
64.2
Muslim
26.8
11.8
0 20 40 60
%
67.
Tamil
Sinhala

& ON
T
AXATION
ieve or do not believe the accusation levelled ging in abductions?
you believe or do not believe the accusation nst the LTTE of engaging in abductions ?
16.4
July '02 September '02
19.7
ion I do not believe this accusation
Ethnic Breakdown
64.2 .3
88.9
83.7
40 60 80 100
%
67.4
I do not believe this accusation
I believe this accusation
2
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Page 31
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please tell me if you believe or do not believ against the LTTE of engaging in extortion?
Please tell me if you believe or do not b levelled against the LTTE of engagi
90 80
81.1
76
70 60
%
50 40 30 20
15.2
10 0
I believe this accusation I do not believe
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamil
30.3
64.2
Muslim
21.4
12.3
8
0 20 40 60 80
%
72.4
Tamil
11.8
Sinhala

ieve or do not believe the accusation levelled ging in extortion?
ou believe or do not believe the accusation
st the LTTE of engaging in extortion ?
15.2
July '02 September '02
19.6
on I do not believe this accusation
thnic Breakdown
64.2
83.4
60 80 100 %
I do not believe this accusation
72.4
I believe this 85.4
accusation
2
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Page 32
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware that the LTTE levies taxes in th
National Trend
100 90
86.1
84.3
80
70 60 %
50 40 30 20
12.2 10
0
Yes No
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamil
40.2
54.6
Muslim
14.9
Tamil
43.5
53.9
Sinhala
9
0 20 40 60
%

TTE levies taxes in the North and East?
National Trend
12.2
July '02 September '02
13.7
No
Ethnic Breakdown
54.6 40.2
43.5
89.5
40 60 80 100
%
80
No Yes
53.9
2
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Page 33
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
P
EACE
T
ALKS IN
T
HAILAND
Are you aware of the talks that took place Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE?
National Breakdow
19.5
Ethnic Breakdown
National
19.5
Up-country Tamil
46.7
53.3
Muslim
23
Tamil
14.4
Sinhala
17.8
0 20 40 60
%

alks that took place in Thailand between the
and the LTTE?
National Breakdown
80.3
Yes No
thnic Breakdown
5
82.2
40 60 80 100
%
80.3
3
46.7
53.3
No 75.9
Yes
84.8
2
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If aware of the talks that took place in Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE, are y taken at the talks?
National Breakdown
90 80 70 60
%
50 40 30 20
15.7
10 0
Yes
Ethnic Breakdown
National
15.7
Up-country Tamil
17.5
Muslim
22.5
Tamil
38.2
Sinhala
13.6
0 20 40 60
%

that took place in Thailand between the and the LTTE, are you aware of the decisions
National Breakdown
83.6
No
Ethnic Breakdown
3.6
83.6 15.7
82.5 17.5
85.6
20 40 60 80 100
%
77.5
No 22.5
Yes
61.4 38.2
2
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Page 35
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If aware of the decisions taken at the talks, do y up of the Joint Committee and Joint Task Force
National Breakdo
60
52.1 50
40
%
30
22.1 20
10
0
Approve Disapprove
Ethnic Breakdown
National
22.1
24.1
26.7
47
0 20 40 60 80
%
52.1
Up-country Tamil
24.7
36.3
24
39.1
Muslim
9.3
31.4
59.2
Tamil
5.1
14.7
80.2
Sinhala

aken at the talks, do you approve of the setting e and Joint Task Force (JTF)?
National Breakdown
22.1
24.1
Disapprove Do not know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
52.1
36.3
1.4
47
40 60 80 100
%
Do not
39.1
know/Not sure
59.2
Disapprove
80.2
Approve
2
Page 32

Page 36
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware of the statement made by Dr. Eelam does not connote a separate state and th for regional autonomy?
National Breakdown
60
50
44.2
40
%
30
20
10
0
Yes
Ethnic Breakdown
National
44.8
%
44.2
Up-country Tamil
20.1
37.4
Muslim
27.4
Tamil
25.5
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50

tement made by Dr. Anton Balasingham that separate state and that the LTTE would settle
National Breakdown
52.9
No
Ethnic Breakdown
44.8
52.9
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
44.2
20.1
37.4
54.7
71.4
No 27.4
Yes
25.5
59.7
2
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Page 37
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please state your opinion on the credibility of th
National Breakdown
70
60
50
40 %
30
20
17.3 17
10
0
Yes, it is a credible statement
Ethnic Breakdown
11.3
Do not know/Not sure
59.2 National
17 17.3
Up-country Tamil
2.3
14.4
30.4
4.5 Muslim
29.9
61.3
3.1 Tamil
13.5
71 15.5
0 20 40 60 8 %
61.6
Sinhala

on the credibility of this statement.
National Breakdown
17
59.2
Do not know/Not sure No, it is not a credible
statement
Ethnic Breakdown
59.2
61.6
40 60 80 % 30.4
No, it is not a credible statement
29.9
61.3
Do not know/Not sure
Yes, it is a credible statement
71.2
2
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Page 38
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please state your level of satisfaction with the o
National Breakdown
35
32.6
30
25
20 %
15
14.3
10
8.5
7.3
5
0
Highly
Somewhat satisfied
satisfied
Ethnic Breakdown
7.1
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
National
7.3 7.6
14.3 8.5
26.4
32.6
Up-country Tamil
1 1.4 2
4.3
19.5
24.5
Muslim
0.6
2.4
6.8
10.8
8.6
68
Tamil
0
0.3
2.1
22.4
21.8
35.4
Sinhala
8.3 8.9
15.9
29.2
30.1
0 20 40 60
%

satisfaction with the outcome of the talks.
National Breakdown
14.3
7.3
26.4
Neither tisfied nor issatisfied
7.6
Somewhat dissatisfied
Highly dissatisfied
Do not know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
.4
32.6
9.2
0.1
40 60 80 %
Do not know/Not sure
Highly dissatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 68
Somewhat satisfied
Highly satisfied
35.4
2
Page 35

Page 39
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware of the President’s request for h part in talks?
National Breakdown
50
48.4
45 40 35 30 %
25 20 15 10 5 0
Yes
Ethnic Breakdown
National
Up-country
22.2 Tamil
31.6
Muslim
32.7
0 10 20 30 40
%
4
Tamil
Sinhala

sident’s request for her representative to take
National Breakdown
48.5
No
Ethnic Breakdown
48.5
50.6
20 30 40 50 60
%
48.4
22.2
31.6
49
54.5
No 42.4
Yes
50.5 32.7
2
Page 36

Page 40
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If aware of the President’s request, please state to her request.
National Breakdow
80
70.1 70 60 50 %
40 30
20
14.1
10 0
I agree I disagree
Ethnic Breakdown
9.7 National
14.1
31.8
10.9
0 20 40 60
%
70.
Up-country Tamil
4.6
17.6 18.3
Muslim
5
17.1
12.4
70
Tamil
0.5
33.5
Sinhala

s request, please state your opinion with regard
National Breakdown
14.1
9.7
I disagree Do not know/Cannot say
Ethnic Breakdown
70.1
33.5
75.8
40 60 80 %
Do not know/Cannot say
70
I disagree I agree
31.8
2
Page 37

Page 41
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
19TH A
MENDMENT
Are you aware of the UNF proposed 19 constitution?
National Breakdo
44.4
Ethnic Breakdow
National
44.4
42.6
0 20 40 60
%
55
Up-country Tamil
23.3
Muslim
35.2
Tamil
5
Sinhala
39.7

UNF proposed 19th Amendment to the
National Breakdown
55.6
Yes No
Ethnic Breakdown
44.4
60.3
20 40 60 80 100
%
55.6
39.7
76.7 23.3
64.8
No 35.2
Yes
57.4 42.6
2
Page 38

Page 42
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If aware of the UNF proposed 19th Amendm please state to what extent you understand the
National Breakdow
50 45
43.9
40
36.9 35 30 %
25 20 15 10 5
2.8
0
Understand fully Understand to a
certain extent
Ethnic Breakdown
2.4
Not at
National
2.8
16
36.9
43.9
Up-country Tamil
0
16.6
28.9
54.5
Muslim
12.6
15.7
4
64.8
Tamil
8.8
14
22.8
54.5
Sinhala
16.3
34.3
46.8
0 20 40 60 80 %

oposed 19th Amendment to the constitution, nt you understand the 19th Amendment?
National Breakdown
6.9
43.9
16
tand to a n extent
Not at all Do not know/Not
sure
Ethnic Breakdown
36.9
43.9
28.9
54.5
Do not know/Not sure
Not at all
Understand to a certain extent Understand fully
34.3
46.8
40 60 80 %
64.8
2.8
54.5
2
Page 39

Page 43
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you understand the 19th Amendment fully please state whether you approve or disapprove
National Breakdo
50
46 45 40
39.
35 30 %
25 20 15 10 5 0
Approve Disapp
Ethnic Breakdown
14.2 National
39.1
46
Up-country Tamil
17.2 7.4
15.8
44.2 39.9
0 20 40 60 80
%
75.4
5.4 Muslim
22.7
66.4
3.3 Tamil
8.2
86
Sinhala

9 Amendment fully or to a certain extent, approve or disapprove of the 19th Amendment?
National Breakdown
39.1
14.2
Disapprove Do not know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
39.1
46
44.2 39.9
40 60 80 100
%
75.4
Do not know/Not sure Disapprove 66.4
Approve
86.3
2
Page 40

Page 44
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in Septembe
DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 200 Gampaha 177 Kalutara 96 Kandy 106 Matale 38 Nuwara Eliya 55 Galle 82 Hambantota 47 Matara 68 Anuradhapura 60 Polonnaruwa 29 Kurunegala 124 Puttlam 56 Badulla 61 Monaragala 31 Ratnapura 83 Kegalle 66 Amparai 44 Batticaloa 21 Trincomalee 16 Vavuniya 64 NATIONAL 1524
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in September
ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1257 Tamil 79 Muslim 103 Up-country Tamil 85 NATIONAL 1524

Annex
istribution in September 2002
TOTAL 200 177 96 106 38 55 82 47 68 60 29 124 56 61 31 83 66 44 21 16 64 1524
tribution in September 2002
TOTAL 1257 79 103 85 1524
er 2002
i

Page 45
Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social resea conducts polls on socio-economic and political iss
Operating under the Board of Directors of Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in Septem longstanding vacuum for a permanent, profess polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and political is
Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a mea majority of the public can express their opinions o Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social is a means through which public opinion can influ debate.
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alterna 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: c Fax: 370475 Web: h

independent social research organisation, which conomic and political issues.
oard of Directors of the Centre for Policy as established in September 1999, and filled a r a permanent, professional and independent a on social and political issues.
of empowerment, a means by which the silent express their opinions on issues affecting them. t surveys on key social issues, thereby providing public opinion can influence the public policy
ublished by:
ocial Indicator
entre for Policy Alternatives 05, 5th Lane, olombo 3, ri Lanka.
el: 370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net ax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Page 46
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
SAMPLING METHODOLOGY
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is e repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conductin a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase o
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the stud the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fie an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole this model.
The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative dist Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar distric result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficultie stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district o particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama N selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the Lanka 1999’ published by the Department of Census and Statis
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maxim DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order households.
In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KRISH of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the P
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error m noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not sup same level of precision.

ence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public rocess over time it is essential that the study be conducted e study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of ame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.
ctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of g each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture e span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that cess is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic d influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in
22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the niya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a n and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each population proportions. However, some districts are over y but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the
nicity within a district only if the population proportion of that sional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit nique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are ampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri ent of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
rk and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a uct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a o select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews ule) technique in order to assure the random selection of
er is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, lace at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, sehold using the ‘KRISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member f being selected to the PCI sample.
ubject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the
er 2002
ii