கவனிக்க: இந்த மின்னூலைத் தனிப்பட்ட வாசிப்பு, உசாத்துணைத் தேவைகளுக்கு மட்டுமே பயன்படுத்தலாம். வேறு பயன்பாடுகளுக்கு ஆசிரியரின்/பதிப்புரிமையாளரின் அனுமதி பெறப்பட வேண்டும்.
இது கூகிள் எழுத்துணரியால் தானியக்கமாக உருவாக்கப்பட்ட கோப்பு. இந்த மின்னூல் மெய்ப்புப் பார்க்கப்படவில்லை.
இந்தப் படைப்பின் நூலகப் பக்கத்தினை பார்வையிட பின்வரும் இணைப்புக்குச் செல்லவும்: Peace Confidence Index 2002.11

Page 1
An Opinion Poll On Peace
Peace Confidence Index (P
TOP-LINE RESULTS
© 2002 Social Indicator ● Centre for Po
Nove

pinion Poll On Peace
ace Confidence Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
Social Indicator
November 2002
ndicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives

Page 2
W
hile many studies have been conducted this conflict, none have attempted to public perception over a period of time. The la identified as a significant void by Social Indicator unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The Canadian International Development Agency Governance and Institutional Strengthening Proje be conducted bi-monthly to gauge the impact of political developments on public attitudes toward

W
es have been conducted on various aspects of ne have attempted to capture the changes in period of time. The lack of such a study was void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research olicy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence to fill this lacuna. The study, funded by the Development Agency (CIDA) under the onal Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka, will y to gauge the impact of local and international
public attitudes towards the peace process.

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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
E
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
(PCI) T
OP
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX -L
INE
R
ESULTS
PERCEPTIONS OF WAR AND PEACE
S
OLUTIONS TO THE
C
ONFLICT
C
ONFIDENCE
THE PEACE PROCESS
I
NTERNATIONAL
F
ACILITATION
N
ORWEGIAN
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT
• R
ECENT
D
EVELOPMENTS
S
RI
P
OLITICAL
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
LTTE
P
EACE
T
HAILAND
INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDPS)
EASTERN MUSLIMS
O
SLO
FOREIGN AID
PA S
TATEMENT
• A
NNEX
T
ALKS IN

ex
01 I
TERNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
02 E
05 I
DEX
(PCI) 07
ND PEACE 07
NFLICT
10
11
15
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
16
ION
17
19
D
VELOPMENTS
20
M
ISSION
20
23
ND
30
PERSONS (IDPS) 34
38
40
42
43
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a n
public confidence in the peace process using a set of stand
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of q
economic and political developments in order to gauge pub
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide
useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity
opinions of the public are given due importance and incorpora
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire a
interviews amongst a 1,419 respondent sample. The 17 adm
provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern province
control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya an
weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the
surveyed.
Nine waves of the PCI study were conducted in
November 2001 and January, March, May, July and
wave was conducted in November 2002. This publi
results of the November 2002 survey.
The results of these ten waves offer us data for a comparative
regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and p
LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

Page 1
INTRODUCTION
. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
ess using a set of standardised questions which remain
her is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process,
ne wave to another.
riod of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
f the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective
portance and incorporated into the policy debate.
uctured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
ent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven
nd the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government
rincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar were surveyed. Data is
aphic composition of the districts in which the sample was
were conducted in May, June, September and
arch, May, July and September 2002. The latest
ber 2002. This publication presents only the top-line
.
s data for a comparative study on changing public opinion
erceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the
margin of error.

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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
• LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran is sentenced to 200 ye bombing. (31st October 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• A curfew is imposed once again in Maligawatte, Modera, G police divisions as more clashes between Sinhala and M 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• Japan’s premier international diplomat and former UN Un Mr. Yasushi Akashi is scheduled to meet with the LTTE le (2nd November 2002)-(The Island)
• The government and the LTTE clinch three crucial ag matters marking a breakthrough in Norwegian-brokered
• The LTTE undertakes to hand over land and propert cultivated or occupied by Tamils in the North-East provi (4th November 2002)-(The Island)
• The Most. Ven. Udugama Sri Buddharakkita Mahanayake support for the peace process and blessings to both t 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• As cohabitation arrangements are virtually falling apart, P a proposal has come from the UNF for the formation o (Daily Mirror)
• As a gesture of goodwill and commitment to the pea landmines that have been hidden in the Kilinochchi area, the explosion of the landmines is a "significant gesture". (6
• The government and the LTTE have agreed to move dire announces. (7th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe writing to the nin rights and security of the Muslims in the North East w conflict. (7th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• The Chairman of the commission which probed the Kanchirankudah in October 2002 asks the LTTE to take misled and provoked a crowd into attacking the camp. (8
• The seven Sri Lanka Muslim Congress MPs who boycott leader, Minister A.L.M. Athaullah when the budget debate
• The setting up of LTTE ‘police stations’ and ‘courts of law the East forcing SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem to write to (11th November 2002)-(The Island)
• The JVP office in Maharagama is smashed and two par government of trying to violently suppress and sabotag November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• Celebrations to mark the eighth anniversary of the presi the Presidential Secretariat. Prime Minister Ranil Wic parliamentarians do not attend. (12th November 2002)-(The
• The government, responding to President Chandrika K Committee for Ethnic Reconciliation and Sustainable Pea decision making role in the peace talks with the LTTE regular basis. (14th November 2002)-(The Island)
• The People's Alliance launches its strongest attack on N would withdraw support and block parliamentary approv ongoing peace talks. (15th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga "backs down" from he cabinet ministers and a deputy minister. (16th November 20
• The EPDP accuses the LTTE of blocking the re-opening o several weeks ago subsequent to an alleged LTTE-led atta

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2
NAL DEVELOPMENTS OCTOBER – DECEMBER 2002
an is sentenced to 200 years in jail for his role in the 1996 Central Bank ily Mirror) n Maligawatte, Modera, Grandpass, Maradana, Keselwatta and Kotahena between Sinhala and Muslim communities are reported. (31st October
omat and former UN Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs o meet with the LTTE leaders to discuss a range of issues.
clinch three crucial agreements on political, military and economic in Norwegian-brokered peace talks. (3rd November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
over land and property belonging to Muslims (now allegedly being in the North-East province) back to them in about two months' time.
ddharakkita Mahanayake Thera of the Asgiriya Chapter extends his full and blessings to both the Government and the LTTE. (4th November
e virtually falling apart, President Chandrika Kumaratunga discloses that NF for the formation of a national government. (5th November 2002)-
commitment to the peace process, the LTTE blows up some 6,000 in the Kilinochchi area, the state television Rupavahini reports. It said a "significant gesture". (6th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) ave agreed to move directly to political issues, the Cabinet Spokesman Daily Mirror) singhe writing to the nine dissident SLMC MPs assures them that the ms in the North East would be ensured in any solution to the ethnic ily Mirror) sion which probed the attack and shooting at the STF camp at 2 asks the LTTE to take severe action against an area leader who had o attacking the camp. (8th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) ngress MPs who boycotted parliament return to the House with their
when the budget debate resumed. (9th November 2002)-(The Island) ations’ and ‘courts of law’ in the Eastern sector perturbs the Muslims in auff Hakeem to write to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe today.
s smashed and two party members injured as the party accused the ly suppress and sabotage its annual convention scheduled today. (12th
anniversary of the presidency of Chandrika Kumaratunga take place at ime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, his ministers and government 12 November 2002)-(The Island)
President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s proposal to set up a National tion and Sustainable Peace, says that the opposition would not have a ce talks with the LTTE but will be briefed about the discussions on a 2)-(The Island) ts strongest attack on Norway and warns the UNF government that it ck parliamentary approval of any solution if the PA was kept out of the er 2002)-(Daily Mirror) ga "backs down" from her previous refusal to appoint seven new non- inister. (16th November 2002)-(The Island)
locking the re-opening of its Delft Island office which was closed down an alleged LTTE-led attack on it. (17th November, 2002)-(The Island)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The president, secretary and treasurer of the Students C taken into custody over the death of Ovitigala Vidanag University, according to Nugegoda police. (17th November
• The EPDP announces that they would vacate the Delft I November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com)
• The sub-committee on Immediate Humanitarian and Reh in Kilinochchi. (18th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) says that two s ceasefire agreement of February 2002 by travelling from monitors on board their vessels. (18th November 2002)-(D
• A government source says that the donor community a meeting in Oslo on 25th November, before pledging any both the UNF government and the LTTE that they wo political settlement to the ethnic issue. (18th November 20
• A night curfew re-imposed in Galle to control the communities on 18th November that left one dead, f November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• .... Meanwhile, a curfew was reclamped in the Mundalama 6 a.m. following some fresh incidents at a lagoon, where allegedly assaulted. Earlier on Monday, police riot squads area to implement a curfew following the initial clashes (www.lankapage.com)
• The Voice of Tigers, the LTTE’s radio, is to go island-wide November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com)
• The Asgiriya Mahanayake makes a strong appeal to re displaced from the North and East. (20th November 2002)-
• Explaining the LTTE's presence at the 25th November O Constitutional Affairs Minister G. L. Peiris says the g November 2002)-(The Island)
• United States Ambassador Ashley Wills says the prese Armitage at 25th November, 2002’s Oslo meeting was a r ensure Sri Lanka's peace and prosperity. (21st November 20
• A large number of civilians backed by the LTTE launch headquarters, demanding that the EPDP withdraw (www.lankapage.com)
• Minister Rauf Hakeem refuses the LTTE’s request to h November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga orders the Inspector G strengthen the police and Navy presence at EPDP offices (www.lankapage.com)
• The President asks the Prime Minister to bring up, at th attacks by LTTE on a rival Tamil political group. (24th Nove
• Just two weeks after the opening of two LTTE police stat court at Arasadithivu in the Batticaloa-Ampara. The firs woman who was charged with preparing illicit liquor. ( Mirror)
• LTTE's Chief Negotiator Anton Balasingham rejects US request for the LTTE to renounce violence and declare t state. (25th November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com)
• In an apparent bid to revive cohabitation ties, Prime M serious thought to the proposal made by President C Committee for Good Governance" to be chaired by th Mirror)
• International donors meeting in Oslo on Monday 25 No immediate humanitarian assistance to Sri Lanka in additio fledgling peace bid, Norway announced. (25th November 20

Page Index
3
asurer of the Students Council of Sri Jayawardenapura University were ath of Ovitigala Vidanage Samantha, a student of Sri Jayawardenapura
a police. (17th November 2002-(The Island) would vacate the Delft Island if the LTTE also vacates the island. (18th com) te Humanitarian and Rehabilitation Needs in the North and East meets 02)-(Daily Mirror) n (SLMM) says that two senior LTTE commanders seriously violated the y 2002 by travelling from Mullaitivu to Vakarai without having SLMM
(18 November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) the donor community attending the Sri Lanka Peace Process support ber, before pledging any development aid, will seek an assurance from the LTTE that they would not depart from their commitment to a issue. (18th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
Galle to control the tense situation after clashes between two r that left one dead, five injured and several shops damaged. (19th
mped in the Mundalama area of Puttalam Police Division from 2 p.m. till ents at a lagoon, where some persons who had gone to buy fish were onday, police riot squads and soldiers were deployed in Madurankuliya lowing the initial clashes between two groups. (19th November 2002)-
radio, is to go island-wide according to an announcement by LTTE. (19th com) s a strong appeal to resettle some 30,000 Sinhalese who have been st. (20th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) at the 25th November Oslo donor conference, cabinet spokesman and G. L. Peiris says the government was "merely facing reality". (21st
ey Wills says the presence of US Deputy Secretary of State Richard 2’s Oslo meeting was a reflection of the US Government's keenness to sperity. (21st November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
ed by the LTTE launch a protest campaign opposite the Jaffna EPDP the EPDP withdraw from Delft Island. (22nd November 2002)-
he LTTE’s request to handle activities at the Trincomalee Port. (22nd com)
a orders the Inspector General of Police and the Defence Secretary to resence at EPDP offices for the next few weeks. (22nd November, 2002)-
inister to bring up, at the talks with LTTE in Oslo, the issue of alleged political group. (24th November 2002)-(AFP/www.theacademic.org)
of two LTTE police stations in the Eastern Province, the LTTE opens a ticaloa-Ampara. The first case taken up at the LTTE court involved a preparing illicit liquor. (24th November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com/Daily
Balasingham rejects US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's ce violence and declare that it has abandoned its struggle for a separate
.lankapage.com) habitation ties, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe reportedly gives al made by President Chandrika Kumaratunga to set up a "National ce" to be chaired by the Prime Minister. (25th November 2002)-(Daily
Oslo on Monday 25th November pledges up to 70 million US dollars in ce to Sri Lanka in addition to strong political support for the country's
unced. (25th November 2002)-(AFP/www.lankapage.com)
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Indian High Commission maintains that India did not pa Oslo. (25th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• As regards LTTE courts in the east, Justice Minister W. J Constitution, two judicial systems could not co-exist in courts) as an obstacle towards peace. (26th November 200
• Presidential media spokesman Harim Pieris says Pre reiterated the United States' call to the LTTE to reno opportune time in the peace process for the LTTE to Mirror)
• Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe soon after returnin IGP T.E. Anandarajah to demolish Tiger court houses a areas in the East (27th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga directs t LTTE courts and police stations in the North and East th November 2002)-(The Island)
• In his annual speech to mark ‘Heroes’ Day’, the LTTE lea Tigers had given up their demand for a separate state, an autonomy. He also warned the LTTE would not renoun and U.S. demands to do so. (27th November 2002)-(Reuters
• The government describes as 'helpful and encourag Prabhakaran that the Tigers were ready to drop their substantial regional autonomy. Cabinet Spokesman G.L. P is helpful and encouraging, though we don't agree with all
• Interior Minister John Amaratunga says that there are no areas of the North and East. (29th November 2002)-(www.la
• The ongoing peace effort receives a major impetus with question of a political settlement to the ethnic conflict realisation than at any other time". (30th November 2002)-(
• The turmoil in the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) ag Rauff Hakeem suspends the party's Chairman A.L.M. Atha December 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen says successful beyond expectations. (1st December 2002)-(www
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga, responding to a go suggests that only two extensions of service be granted to

Page Index
4
ins that India did not participate in the mini aid group meeting held in
Mirror) ast, Justice Minister W. J. M. Lokubandara declares that in terms of the s could not co-exist in the country and said he saw them (the LTTE eace. (26th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
Harim Pieris says President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga ll to the LTTE to renounce terrorism and considers this the "most rocess for the LTTE to lay down arms". (27th November 2002)-(Daily
inghe soon after returning from the Oslo Peace Support meeting orders ish Tiger court houses allegedly set up in the government controlled
002)-(Daily Mirror) e Kumaratunga directs the government to take immediate steps against in the North and East that violate the constitution of the country. (27th
roes’ Day’, the LTTE leader makes the clearest statement yet that the d for a separate state, and states that he is willing to settle for regional LTTE would not renounce violence yet despite the start of peace talks
November 2002)-(Reuters/The Island)
'helpful and encouraging' a statement by LTTE leader Velupillai re ready to drop their demand for a separate state in exchange for abinet Spokesman G.L. Peiris said "We find much in the statement that h we don't agree with all of it.” (28th November 2002)-(Daily Mirror) ga says that there are no LTTE police stations or courts in the cleared
November 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) es a major impetus with the LSSP going public with the view that "the t to the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka has now been brought closer to ". (30th November 2002)-(The Island) slim Congress (SLMC) again reaches “boiling point” when SLMC leader 's Chairman A.L.M. Athaullah and Secretary General A.L.M. Hafrath. (1st
ster Vidar Helgesen says that the Oslo Peace Solidarity Conference was (1 December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com)
ga, responding to a government proposal to restructure the army, s of service be granted to officers. (1st December 2002)-(The Island)
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CO
N
OVEMBER TO
10TH D
ECEMB
♦ There is a decline in opinion that peace will be esta
compared to that in September 2002. Skepticism ex community.
♦ Overwhelming support for peace talks remain unch
♦ The declining trend in the belief that the “Governm
through talks” continues.
♦ Since April 2002 there is steady decline in opinion t
talks due to its commitment to peace.
♦ Whilst the declining trend in opinion that the LTTE people” continues, when compared to September 2 goes in for talks due to the realization that this war unchanged in the month November 2002.
♦ The declining trend that only the Government and negotiations has reversed. However, Muslims and spectrum of involvement in the negotiation.
♦ Mainly Tamils, Muslims and Up-country Tamils say t
involvement to solve the North East war in Sri Lan
♦ Since June 2002, there is a steady increase of peopl in the Sri Lankan peace process. Though the majori Norway’s assistance, when compared to other ethn low.
♦ Since June 2002 a there is a growing trend amongst SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of the Ceasefire notable majority amongst the Tamil, Muslim and Up believe the contrary.
♦ The belief in accusations levelled against the LTTE o
extortions is gradually declining from July 2002. Ho Tamil communities do not believe the accusations l in contrast to the Sinhala and Muslim opinion.
♦ Over 70% of the Sri Lankans are aware of the 200 y Velupillai Prabakaran by the High Court, for his role bombing. The opinion that this sentence has a nega mainly stems from the Tamil and Up-country Tamil Tamil – 70.2%, Muslim – 37.1%, Up-country Tamil –
♦ Only 39.8% of the people are aware of the Heroes’ leader Mr. Velupillai Prabakaran. When compared t there is a notable awareness amongst the Tamil com positive impact on the peace process.

ndex
E OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
29TH R TO
10TH D
ECEMBER
2002
n that peace will be established soon in Sri Lanka when mber 2002. Skepticism expressed mainly by the Sinhala
peace talks remain unchanged.
belief that the “Government is committed to find peace
teady decline in opinion that the Government goes in for nt to peace.
in opinion that the LTTE “ goes in for talks to fool the ompared to September 2002 the opinion that the LTTE
realization that this war cannot be won remains ovember 2002.
ly the Government and the LTTE should be involved in However, Muslims and Tamils chiefly advocate the widest n the negotiation.
Up-country Tamils say that an international third party’s orth East war in Sri Lanka is essential.
steady increase of people’s approval for Norway assisting cess. Though the majority of Sinhalese approve of compared to other ethnic communities, their approval is
a growing trend amongst people who do not believe that nitoring of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). However, a the Tamil, Muslim and Up-country Tamil communities
velled against the LTTE of engaging in abductions and lining from July 2002. However, the Tamil and Up-country believe the accusations levelled against the LTTE, which is nd Muslim opinion.
ns are aware of the 200 year sentence imposed on Mr. e High Court, for his role in the 1996 Central Bank
this sentence has a negative impact on the peace process il and Up-country Tamil communities. (Sinhala – 20.2%, 7.1%, Up-country Tamil – 52%)
are aware of the Heroes’ day speech made by the LTTE karan. When compared to other ethnic communities ss amongst the Tamil community who think it will have a ce process.
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Page 5

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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ There is a notable percentage (74.7%) of Sri Lankan round of peace talks. However, only 24.7% say they at the talks.
♦ Whilst a majority thinks that the sub-committee on the same priority as the other two sub-committees community advocate this idea.
♦ Over 60% of Sri Lankans are satisfied with the out
talks.
♦ An overwhelming majority (77.8%) of Sri Lankans th
of the IDPs should be top priority in the peace pro
♦ About half of Sri Lankans believe that the Governm return of the IDP as a priority, in the peace process the LTTE’s commitment to the return of the IDPs.
♦ A majority (39.5%) of Sri Lankans do not know abo from the Muslim community. It is chiefly the Tamil HSZs are an impediment to the return of IDPs (37.
♦ Only 27% of Sri Lankans believe that the situation o
deteriorated since the ceasefire in February 2002. believe that the situation of the Muslims in the East
♦ While 29.6% of the people believe that the interest the East are adequately represented in the peace ta
♦ Over 46% of the Sri Lankans who are aware of LTT meeting of 25th of November 2002 disapprove of th an overwhelming majority of the Tamil (98%) and U communities approve of the LTTE’s participation at
♦ A majority (59.5%) of the Sri Lankans believe that t
gets the bulk of the foreign aid.
♦ While a majority (45.3%) of the Sri Lankans express
PA’s official statement that accused the Norwegian towards the LTTE, an overwhelming majority of the disagree with this statement.
For further information p
Reshma Harjani or Prad Social Indicato Centre for Policy Alte
105, 5th Lane Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: cpapoll@ Fax: 370475 Web: http://w

ndex
age (74.7%) of Sri Lankans who are aware the second ever, only 24.7% say they know about the decisions taken
at the sub-committee on political matters should be given her two sub-committees, over 90% of the Muslim dea.
re satisfied with the out come of the second round of
(77.8%) of Sri Lankans think the return and resettlement priority in the peace process.
elieve that the Government is committed to treating the rity, in the peace process. However, only 17.9% believe
the return of the IDPs.
ankans do not know about HSZ and this mainly stems ty. It is chiefly the Tamil community who believe that the o the return of IDPs (37.3%).
elieve that the situation of the Muslims in the East has sefire in February 2002. However, 41.5% of the Muslims
f the Muslims in the East has deteriorated.
believe that the interests and concerns of the Muslims of resented in the peace talks, 36.5% are uncertain.
ns who are aware of LTTE participation in the Oslo
er 2002 disapprove of the LTTE’s participation. However, of the Tamil (98%) and Up-country Tamil (74.6%) e LTTE’s participation at the Oslo meeting.
ri Lankans believe that the North-East is the region that
aid.
f the Sri Lankans express that they are unaware of the accused the Norwegian facilitators of being partial whelming majority of the Tamil (78%) community t.
further information please contact:
Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
70472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net : 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
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Page 6

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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware of the Heroes’ Day speech mad Velupillai Prabhakaran on 27th November 2002
National Breakdown
70
60
50
%
40
39.3
30
20
10
0
Yes
Ethnic Breakdown
National
39.3
35.6
60.7
Up-country Tamil
38.3
61.7
Muslim
40.3
58.8
Tamil
11.8
Sinhala
63.8
0 20 40 60
%

roes’ Day speech made by the LTTE leader Mr.
27 November 2002?
ational Breakdown
60.7
No
hnic Breakdown
35.6
60.7 39.3
61.7 38.3
63.8
40 60 80 100
%
58.8
No 40.3
Yes
88.2
Page 27

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the Heroes’ Day speech m Mr. Velupillai Prabhakaran on 27th November 2 will be the impact of this speech on the peace p
National Breakdown
40
35
30
25 %
20
19.4 19.4
Will have a positive impact
21.2
15
10
5
0
Ethnic Breakdown
9
Will have no impact Will have a negative
impact
4.2
National
19.4 19.4
21.2
35.8
Up-country Tamil
6.6
8
12.6
28.7
43.7
Muslim
2
6.4
31.1
26.3
29.2
Tamil
0.4
2.8
10.7
14.1
69.4
Sinhala
0.8
18.7
27
41.8
0 20 40 60 80
%

eroes’ Day speech made by the LTTE leader n on 27th November 2002, what in your opinion speech on the peace process?
ational Breakdown
21.2
35.8
4.2
ct Will have a negative
impact
Do not know/Not sure
No response
ic Breakdown
69.4
60 80
No response Do not know/Not sure Will have a negative impact Will have no impact Will have a positive impact
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the LTTE is the sole representative of th
National Trend
60
54.8 54.5
17.5
18 16.8
9.4
56.8
50
40
%
30
20
10.4
8.1
May '02 September '02
Ethnic Breakdown
15.1
12.9
0
9.3 10
10.5
11.6 National
10
22.4
55
20.7 Up-country Tamil
8.8
14.1
10.2
63.6 10
0 20 40 60 80
%
56.4
33.4 Muslim
19.8
21.9
24.9
4.1 Tamil
4.4 2.5
Sinhala

le representative of the Tamil community.
National Trend
56.8
22.4
12.9
September '02
55
11.6
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
16.8
Do not know
10.5 10
thnic Breakdown
55
56.4
89
63.6
60 80 100
Do not know
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Page 13
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
T
HAILAND
T
ALKS
Are you aware of the 2nd round of talks tha between the Government of Sri Lanka and the
National Breakdown
25.3
Ethnic Breakdown
National
25.3
Up-country Tamil
45.8
54.2
Muslim
31
Tamil
9.8
Sinhala
24.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

round of talks that took place in Thailand of Sri Lanka and the LTTE?
ional Breakdown
74.7
Yes No
hnic Breakdown
74.7
54.2
45.8
75.6
50 60 70 80 90 100
%
No
69
Yes
90.2
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware of the decision to form thre immediate humanitarian and rehabilitation nee de-escalation and normalization and political m
National Breakdown
80
70
60
50
%
40
30
24.7
20
10
0
Yes
Ethnic Breakdown
National
24.7
22.7
75.
Up-country Tamil
21.4
7
Muslim
28.2
71.8
Tamil
45.5
54.2
Sinhala
76
0 20 40 60 80
%

ecision to form three sub-committees on the and rehabilitation needs in the North and East, ization and political matters?
National Breakdown
75.3
No
thnic Breakdown
75.3
45.5
76.8
60 80 100
%
78.6
No 71.8
Yes
54.2
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Page 15
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the sub-committee(s), committee on political matters should be give other two sub-committees?
National Breakdown
60
56.8
50
40
%
30
20
10
0
Yes
Ethnic Breakdown
National
43.2
52.6
0 20 40 60
%
56.8
Up-country Tamil
34.1
39.8
65.9
Muslim
8
Tamil
32.6
66.7
Sinhala

e sub-committee(s), do you think the sub- atters should be given the same priority as the s?
tional Breakdown
43.2
No
thnic Breakdown
43.2
52.6
60 80 100
%
56.8
.8
65.9
No
Yes 91.8
66.7
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please state your level of satisfaction with the o
National Breakdow
45
40
38.8
35
30
%
25
23
20
15
13.8
10
5
0
Highly satisfied Somewhat
satisfied
Ethnic Breakdown
16.7
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
Som dissa
National
5.3
7
12.1
13.8
23
38.
0
Up-country Tamil
1.5
5.8
5.8
31.5
0.2
2.9
8.4 Muslim
19.4
24.2
0 Tamil
3.5
2.5
3.9
32.7
Sinhala
3.9
8.3
14.8
15.4
38.
0 10 20 %
30 40

satisfaction with the outcome of the talks.
National Breakdown
13.8
7
12.1
5.3
ther satisfied dissatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Highly dissatisfied Do not know/Not
sure
Ethnic Breakdown
38.8
56.8
30 40 50 60
Do not know/Not sure
31.5
55.4
Highly dissatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
24.2
44.9
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
Somewhat satisfied
32.7
Highly satisfied
38.9
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NTERNALLY
D
ISPLACED
P
ERSONS
(IDP
S
)
Do you think that the return and resettlement priority in the peace process?
National Breakdow
90
80
77.8
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
6.6
0
Yes No
Ethnic Breakdown
15.6 National
6.6
16.6
76
0 20 40 60 80 100 1
%
77.8
Up-country Tamil
19.8 8.2
7
71.4
1.9 Muslim
1.7
96.4
6.2 Tamil
3.1
90.7
Sinhala

(IDP ONS
S
)
urn and resettlement of the IDPs should be top ess?
National Breakdown
6.6
15.6
No Do not know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
77.8
71.4
76
80 100 120
Do not know/Not sure
96.4
No
90.7
Yes
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Page 18
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Is the Government committed to treating th priority?
National Breakdown
60
50
49.4
40
%
30
20
16.3
10
0
Yes No
Ethnic Breakdown
34.3 National
16.3
49.4
39.4 Up-country Tamil
19.5
41.2
22.9 Muslim
5.4
23 Tamil
14.6
35.2 Sinhala
16.8
47.6
0 10 20 30 %
40 50 60

itted to treating the return of the IDPs as a
ional Breakdown
16.3
34.3
No Do not know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
34.3
49.4
39.4
41.2
Do not know/Not sure
No
70.9
Yes
62.4
35.2
47.6
%
40 50 60 70 80
Page 35

Page 19
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Is the LTTE committed to treating the return o
National Breakdown
50
45
40
35
%
30
24.8
28.7
25
20
15
10
5
0
Yes No
Ethnic Breakdown
17.9
46.5 National
28.7 24.8
43.6 Up-country Tamil
12.4
44
48.3 33.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
46.7 Muslim
5.6
47.7
16.9 Tamil
0.7
Sinhala

o treating the return of the IDPs as a priority?
National Breakdown
28.7
46.5
No Do not know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
46.5
43.6
82.4
40 50 60 70 80 90
%
44
Do not know/Not sure
No
Yes
.3
46.7
47.7
48.3
Page 36

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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
According to your understanding high secur Answers]
National Breakdown
45
40
35
30
25 %
20
15
14.2
14.7
10
6.9
5
0
Essential for the presence of security forces in the North
and East
Ethnic Breakdown
15.5
Necessary for the provision of security in the North and East
An impediment to th
return of the IDPs
24.7
National
6.9
14.2 14.7
39.5
18.3
Up-country Tamil
6.6
7.8
14.4
3.9
16.3
22.9
44.2
6.5
Muslim
2.5
6.9
75.
12.8
8.3
Tamil
3.1
7.1
37.3
41
Sinhala
36.8
0 10 20 30 %
40 50 60 70 80

rstanding high security zones are...[Multiple
National Breakdown
6.9
39.5
24.7
ty
st
An impediment to the return of the IDPs
Do not know/Not sure No response
nic Breakdown
75.4
No response
.2
Do not know/Not sure
An impediment to the return of the IDPs Necessary for the provision of security in the North and East Essential for the presence of security forces in the North and East
50 60 70 80
Page 37

Page 21
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
E
ASTERN
M
USLIMS
Do you think that the situation of the M deteriorated since the ceasefire in February 20
National Breakdown
80
70
60
50
%
40
30
27
20
10
0
Yes
Ethnic Breakdown
National
27
Up-country Tamil
16.8
Muslim
41.5
5
Tamil
12.5
Sinhala
27.8
0 10 20 30 40 %
50 6

situation of the Muslims in the East has sefire in February 2002?
tional Breakdown
73
No
Ethnic Breakdown
41.5
62.3
73
83
57.3
40 %
50 60 70 80 90
No Yes
82.7
Page 38

Page 22
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Do you think that the interests and concerns o are being adequately represented in the peace
National Breakdown
40
36.5
35
30
29.6
25 %
20
18.9
15
10
5
0
Yes No Do not kn sure
Ethnic Breakdown
15 National
18.9
29.6
10.2 Up-country Tamil
19.1
31.2
31.8
4.6
18.5
28.4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
%
29.9
3.4 Muslim
23.8
1.9 Tamil
11.3
Sinhala

erests and concerns of the Muslims of the East esented in the peace talks?
ational Breakdown
.9
36.5
15
o Do not know/Not
sure
No response
thnic Breakdown
36.5 .9
29.6
.1
38.7
37.9 5
28.4
25 30 35 40 45
%
29.9
31.2
No response
23.8
31.8
Do not know/Not sure
36
No
36.2
Yes
Page 39

Page 23
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
O
SLO
Are you aware of LTTE participation at the m November 2002, of key donors in support of th
National Breakdown
60
49.8 50.2 50
40
%
30
20
10
0
Yes No
Ethnic Breakdown
50.2 National
49.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
49.8
Up-country Tamil
40
Muslim
38
29.2 Tamil
49.8 Sinhala

articipation at the meeting in Oslo on the 25th nors in support of the peace process?
ional Breakdown
50.2
No
nic Breakdown
50.2
49.6
40 50 60 70 80
%
49.8
49.8
60
40
62
38
No Yes
.2
70.8
Page 40

Page 24
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of LTTE participation at the m November 2002, do you approve or dis participation?
National Breakdown
50
46.6 45
41 40
35 30
%
25 20 15
12
10 5 0
Approve Disapprove Do not k su
Ethnic Breakdown
12.4 National
46.6 41
5 Up-country Tamil
20.3
0
12.6
54.4 32.5
0 20 40 60 80 100 %
74.6
27.5 Muslim
15.6
54.8
2 Tamil
9
Sinhala

participation at the meeting in Oslo on the 25th ou approve or disapprove of the LTTE's
tional Breakdown
46.6
12.4
sapprove Do not know/Not
sure
thnic Breakdown
6.6
74.6
98
54.4
60 80 100 120
Do not know/Not sure Disapprove
54.8
Approve
Page 41

Page 25
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
OREIGN
A
ID
I believe the region that gets the bulk of fore Answers]
National Breakdown
70
60
59.5
50
%
40
30
20
10
9.1
1.8 0
South North-East Whole country
Ethnic Breakdown
1.6
11.4
National
1.8
9.1
18.2
59
Up-country Tamil
6.7
18.2
19.7
2.4
45.1
Muslim
2
0.8
21
24.3
45.1
1.4
Tamil
2.7
16.2
4.4
Sinhala
3.9
8
18.2
60
0 10 20 30 %
40 50 60

gets the bulk of foreign aid is the ... [Multiple
National Breakdown
9.1
18.2
11.4
ast Whole country Do not
know/Not sure
No response
Ethnic Breakdown
59.5
45.1
60.5
%
40 50 60 70 80
No response Do not know/Not sure
45.1
Whole country North-East South
69.6
Page 42

Page 26
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
PA’
S
S
TATEMENT
The PA in an official statement on the 15 Norwegian facilitators of being partial towards
National Breakdown
50
45
40
35
%
30
25
20.6
22.7
20
15
11.4
10
5
0
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
Ethnic Breakdown
23.6
Disagre
45.3 National
11.4
22.7
20.6
47 18.2 10.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
44.8 Up-country Tamil
18.1
33.6
2.6
54 Muslim
16.7
20.7 8.6
11.5 Tamil
5 5.3
Sinhala

tement on the 15th November 2002, accused being partial towards the LTTE.
al Breakdown
22.7
45.3
or Disagree Do not know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
45.3
44.8
78
47
50 60 70 80 90
Do not know/Not sure
54
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
Page 43

Page 27
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware of President Chandrika Kumara a "National Commission for Ethnic Recon Peace" made by her in a speech to mark h President on 12th November 2002?
National Breakdown
80
70
60
50 %
40
30
29.2
20
10
0
Yes
Ethnic Breakdown
National
29.2
29
70.8
Up-country Tamil
19.6
Muslim
32.8
67.2
Tamil
36.4
63.6
Sinhala
70.6
0 20 40 60 8
%

nt Chandrika Kumaratunga's proposal to set up n for Ethnic Reconciliation and Sustainable a speech to mark her eighth anniversary as er 2002?
ational Breakdown
70.8
No
nic Breakdown
36.4
70.8 2
70.6
40 60 80 100
%
79.8
67.2 2.8
No Yes
63.6
Page 44

Page 28
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of President Chandrika Kum in your opinion will be the impact of this propo
National Breakdown
45
42.3
40
35
30
%
25
20
18.4
15
9.9 10
5
0
Will have a positive
Will have no impact Will have a negative impact
impact
Ethnic Breakdown
National
3.1
9.9
18.4
26.3
25.3
1.1
8.1
26
44.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
42.3
Up-country
2.8
10.3 Tamil
18.4
25.1
28.8
0
Muslim
5.6
21.7
22.6
48.8 0
Tamil
13
23.9
24
39.2
Sinhala

dent Chandrika Kumaratunga's proposal, what impact of this proposal on the peace process?
National Breakdown
9.9
26.3
3.1
ct Will have a negative
impact
Do not know/Not sure
No response
Breakdown
42.3
39.2
44.3
0 50 60
No response
Do not know/Not sure
48.8
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
Page 45

Page 29
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in Novembe
DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 204 Gampaha 175 Kalutara 88 Kandy 100 Matale 33 Nuwara Eliya 51 Galle 78 Hambantota 39 Matara 59 Anuradhapura 57 Polonnaruwa 28 Kurunegala 114 Puttlam 52 Badulla 51 Monaragala 27 Ratnapura 79 Kegalle 63 Amparai 42 Batticaloa 38 Trincomalee 31 Vavuniya 12 NATIONAL 1419
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in November
ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1183 Tamil 89 Muslim 73 Up-country Tamil 74 NATIONAL 1419

Annex
istribution in November 2002
TOTAL 204 175 88 100 33 51 78 39 59 57 28 114 52 51 27 79 63 42 38 31 12 1419
tribution in November 2002
TOTAL 1183 89 73 74 1419
r 2002
i

Page 30
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2002
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study i confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is e repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conductin a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase o
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the stud the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fie an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a n factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole f this model.
The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative distr Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar distric result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficultie stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district on particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the Lanka 1999’ published by the Department of Census and Statis
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maxim DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order households.
In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KRISH of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PC
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error m noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not sup same level of precision.

ence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public rocess over time it is essential that the study be conducted e study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of ame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of g each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture e span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that ocess is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic d influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in
g 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the uniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a n and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each population proportions. However, some districts are over ty but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the
nicity within a district only if the population proportion of that sional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit nique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri
ent of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
rk and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a uct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews ule) technique in order to assure the random selection of
er is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, lace at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, sehold using the ‘KRISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member f being selected to the PCI sample.
ubject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the
r 2002
ii