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An Opinion Poll On Peace
Peace Confidence Index (P
TOP-LINE RESULTS
© 2003 Social Indicator ● Centre for Po
Ja

pinion Poll On Peace
ace Confidence Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
Social Indicator
January 2003
ndicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives

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W
hile many studies have been conducted this conflict, none have attempted to public perception over a period of time. The la identified as a significant void by Social Indicator unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The Canadian International Development Agency Governance and Institutional Strengthening Proje be conducted bi-monthly to gauge the impact of political developments on public attitudes toward

W
es have been conducted on various aspects of ne have attempted to capture the changes in period of time. The lack of such a study was void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research olicy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence to fill this lacuna. The study, funded by the Development Agency (CIDA) under the onal Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka, will y to gauge the impact of local and international
public attitudes towards the peace process.

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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
EVELO
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
(PCI) T
OP
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX -L
INE
R
ESULTS
PERCEPTIONS OF WAR AND PEACE
S
OLUTIONS TO THE
C
ONFLICT
C
ONFIDENCE
THE PEACE PROCESS
I
NTERNATIONAL
F
ACILITATION
N
ORWEGIAN
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT
• R
ECENT
D
EVELOPMENTS
S
RI
P
OLITICAL
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
LTTE
P
EACE
T
ALKS
THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY
LIVING CONDITIONS
O
PPOSITION
R
OLE
JAPAN’S ROLE
• A
NNEX
’
S

ex
01 RNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
02 06 X
(PCI) 09
ND PEACE 09
NFLICT
12
13
17
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
18
ION
19
21
OPMENTS
22
M
ISSION
22
25
29
Y 34
36
38
42
003

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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a n
public confidence in the peace process using a set of stand
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of q
economic and political developments in order to gauge pub
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide
useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity
opinions of the public are given due importance and incorpora
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire a
interviews amongst a 1,397 respondent sample. The 17 adm
provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern province
control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya an
weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the
surveyed.
Ten waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, June, Sep
January, March, May, July, September and November 2002. T
January 2003. This publication presents only the top-line result
The results of these ten waves offer us data for a comparative
regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and p
LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

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INTRODUCTION
. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
ess using a set of standardised questions which remain
her is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process,
ne wave to another.
riod of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
f the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective
portance and incorporated into the policy debate.
uctured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
ent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven
nd the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government
rincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar were surveyed. Data is
aphic composition of the districts in which the sample was
ducted in May, June, September and November 2001 and
and November 2002. The latest wave was conducted in
s only the top-line results of the January 2003 survey.
s data for a comparative study on changing public opinion
erceptions of war and peace to the proscription of the
margin of error.

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS DECE
• The government and the LTTE agree to explore a political s self-determination in areas of historical habitation of the Tam structure within a united Sri Lanka at the third round of the (Daily Mirror/http://www.peaceinsrilanka.org/insidepages/Arc
• Phillip Reeker, the US Deputy Spokesman for the State Dep establish a federal system of government within a united Sri (www.lankapage.com)
• PA media spokesman Dr. Sarath Amunugama expresses vie and East through a federal structure. Dr. Amunugama, who a letter from President Kumaratunga to Indian Premier Va federalism to the North and East in August 2000. (7 Decemb
• The Prime Minister on a visit to Japan speaks of the crucial r success of the current peace initiative. The PM states that as send a positive signal to other countries. (9 December 2002)
• The EPDP challenges the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission's clai LTTE with the attacks on the EPDP in Nelliady. (12 Decemb
• Sri Lanka’s efforts to improve the quality of life of its people support from a US$15 million credit approved today by the
• PA Spokesman Sarath Amunugama charges that the import for the LTTE through the Norwegian embassy here raised s (13 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• Addressing the weekly press conference held by the PA, Lak should address the issue of decommissioning the LTTE para (The Island)
• The government and the LTTE agrees at the subcommittee held at Muhamalai, that an immediate solution should be fou people in high security zones and other areas. The Norwegi parties took a non-confrontational approach and demonstra solutions acceptable to both. (15 December 2002)-(www.lan
• Government chief negotiator G. L. Peiris expresses confiden would in principle see eye to eye with the UNF government conflict. (17 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• The EPDP decides to halve the number of its members in D taken to support the government’s peace process. (18 Dece
• The Ministry of Rehabilitation Resettlement and Refugees (M parties interested in the welfare of internally displaced Sinha them. (22 December 2002)-(The Island)
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission says the arrest of a perso matter for the police and the legal system of the country to Agreement. (23 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
• Issuing an official statement, the LTTE says that further mee and Normalisation (SDN) would serve no purpose. The stat headquarters, rejects the demand made by the Sri Lankan A the High Security Zones should be conditional on the disarm (www.lankapage.com)
• The EPRLF accusing the LTTE of murdering one of its senio spate of abductions and disappearances since the governmen about the real objectives of the LTTE. (26 December 2002)-
• A soldier manning the forward defence line at Ranabapura in 24th Tuesday. (26 December 2002)-(The Island)
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003

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DEVELOPMENTS DECEMBER 2002-FEBRUARY 2003
e to explore a political solution founded on the principle of internal rical habitation of the Tamil-speaking peoples, based on a federal at the third round of the talks in Oslo, Norway. (5 December 2002)- rilanka.org/insidepages/Archive/December/Talks3Transcript.asp)
esman for the State Department, hails the agreement in Oslo to ment within a united Sri Lanka. (7 December 2002)-
munugama expresses views in support of power sharing for the North e. Dr. Amunugama, who recently led a SLFP team to India to hand over ga to Indian Premier Vajpayee, said that it was the PA which offered August 2000. (7 December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) an speaks of the crucial role Japan has agreed to play to ensure the ive. The PM states that as a major world power, Japan's support would
tries. (9 December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) Monitoring Mission's claim that there was no hard evidence to link the
in Nelliady. (12 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) uality of life of its people and to secure lasting peace will receive it approved today by the World Bank. (12 December 2002)-(The Island) charges that the import of high-powered radio transmission equipment an embassy here raised serious doubts about Oslo's role as a facilitator. r)
rence held by the PA, Lakshman Kadirgamar says that the government issioning the LTTE parallel to the peace talks. (13 December 2002)-
es at the subcommittee meeting on de-escalation and normalization te solution should be found for the resettlement of internally displaced ther areas. The Norwegian Embassy in a statement says that both approach and demonstrated a mutual understanding and will to find ecember 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) Peiris expresses confidence that President Chandrika Kumaratunga ith the UNF government on the basis for a settlement of the ethnic ly Mirror)
ber of its members in Delft Island. They say that this decision has been peace process. (18 December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com) ttlement and Refugees (MRRR) has appealed to the organisations and internally displaced Sinhala families to hand in information regarding sland)
ays the arrest of a person operating a 'court house' in Pandirippu is a system of the country to deal with and not a violation of the Ceasefire (Daily Mirror)
TE says that further meetings of the Sub-Committee on De-Escalation rve no purpose. The statement, released from the LTTE’s Kilinochchi
ade by the Sri Lankan Army’s Jaffna Commander that the relaxation of conditional on the disarmament of LTTE. (26 December 2002)-
urdering one of its senior members, Poobalapillai Alagathurai, says the nces since the government initiated peace talks raises a serious question TE. (26 December 2002)-(The Island)
nce line at Ranabapura in Welioya was taken into LTTE ‘custody’ on -(The Island)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Major General Trond Furuhovde, the head of the Sri Lanka need for joint efforts by the people, the government and the He says that the real threat to peace in Sri Lanka now come organizations. (27 December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com)
• The Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP) says there is a suspicio between the government and the LTTE are centred on the December 2002)-(www.lankapage.com)
• With the LTTE taking a tough stand on the High Security Zo backs Jaffna Army Commander Major General Sarath Fonse allowing civilians to resettle in the Jaffna High Security Zone
• The main opposition People's Alliance claims that at least 11 their willingness to support it to form a new government. (2
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission recommends a meeting be January 14 in Muhamalai on the re-settlement of persons in
• In the agenda of the fourth round of peace talks due to be h include three special reports on recommendations on reset zones in the North and East province. (30 December 2002)-
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga sends a toughly worded l Magne Bondevik today, accusing Ambassador Jon Westborg Lanka's Customs regulations and the Vienna Convention on Mirror)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga writes to Prime Minister by tomorrow on the import of hi-tech equipment for the LT
• The LTTE has not imported any VSAT communication unit Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe today informed Presid response to some of the concerns raised by her. (3 January 2
• The Sri Lankan government rejects the LTTE’s position that De-Escalation and Normalisation (SDN), aimed at restoring 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)
• Defence Minister Thilak Marapana has said that it is not yet Terrorism Act (PTA). (13 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• The LTTE urges rehabilitation Minister Jaylath Jayawardena proposed repatriation of some 350,000 Tamil refugees from Reggie has requested that the programme be postponed till Zone. (15 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• Bank authorities and account holders of banks in Jaffna prot obtain lists of account holders in banks. (15 January 2003)-(D
• The Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers have insiste to their list names of Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Colombia as c conflicts. (16 January 2003)-(www.theacademic.org)
• A former head of the human rights watchdog Amnesty Inter next session of talks in February to come up with comprehe Cabinet spokesperson Minister G. L. Peiris announced today
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) will arrange a me Fernando and Ampara-Batticaloa LTTE commander Karuna issues, particularly issues arising from violations of a cease-fi
• The Bishop of Trincomalee and Batticaloa K. Swampillai has conscription of children. (19 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.
• Ruling United National Front and the main opposition PA ar general election, Lankadeepa newspaper reported. (19 Janua
• Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga and leftist par talks aimed at forging a possible joint opposition against the (www.theacademic.org)
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission today again urged the LTT child abductions and recruitment. (20 January 2003)-(Daily M
• Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa yesterday visited Ja Parliamentarians for the first time since the ceasefire agree the LTTE. (21 January 2003)-(The Island)
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he head of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), has stressed the , the government and the LTTE to defeat anti-peace extremist forces. e in Sri Lanka now comes from the activities of extremists and criminal )-(www.lankapage.com)
) says there is a suspicion within the Muslim community that the talks TTE are centred on the integration of the North and East. (28 .com)
on the High Security Zones issue President Chandrika Kumaratunga or General Sarath Fonseka's proposals to disarm LTTE cadres, before affna High Security Zones (HSZs). (29 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) ce claims that at least 11 parliamentarians from the East had indicated rm a new government. (29 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) ecommends a meeting between the government and the LTTE on settlement of persons in the HSZs. (30 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror)
f peace talks due to be held in Thailand, Government has decided to commendations on resettlement of displaced persons from high security
ce. (30 December 2002)-(Daily Mirror) sends a toughly worded letter to Norwegian Prime Minister Kijell bassador Jon Westborg of serious misconduct in violation of Sri e Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. (1 January 2003)-(Daily
writes to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe asking for a full report ech equipment for the LTTE. (1 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) AT communication unit with its FM radio transmission equipment, he today informed President Chandrika Kumaratunga in a five-page raised by her. (3 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
the LTTE’s position that it would not accept the Sub-Committee on DN), aimed at restoring civilian life in the North and East. (9 January
has said that it is not yet time to do away with the Prevention of 2003)-(Daily Mirror) ster Jaylath Jayawardena to request Indian authorities to postpone the ,000 Tamil refugees from Tamil Nadu. LTTE resettlement chief K.T. ramme be postponed till civilians were resettled in the High Security ror) rs of banks in Jaffna protest against alleged attempts by the LTTE to nks. (15 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) hild Soldiers have insisted the United Nations Security Council to add anmar and Colombia as countries that are using children in armed theacademic.org)
watchdog Amnesty International, Mr. Ian Martin, will participate in the come up with comprehensive proposals on human rights issues, L. Peiris announced today. (16 January 2003)-(The Island) SLMM) will arrange a meeting between Defence Secretary Austin TE commander Karuna shortly to discuss a range of contentious m violations of a cease-fire agreement. (19 January 2003)-(The Island) ticaloa K. Swampillai has rapped the LTTE over alleged abductions and ry 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)
he main opposition PA are secretly preparing for a possible forthcoming
aper reported. (19 January 2003) (www.theacademic.org) maratunga and leftist party JVP or the People's Liberation Front hold nt opposition against the government. (20 January 2003) –
oday again urged the LTTE leadership to seriously address the issue of (20 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
aksa yesterday visited Jaffna with a delegation of the People’s Alliance since the ceasefire agreement was signed between the government and Island)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Global shipping faces unprecedented threats from radicals network who have been trained in suicide attacks develop say. (21 January 2003)-(Reuters/The Island)
• The LTTE has responded to a complaint made by the Sri L incident at the Batticaloa hospital last week, conceding tha unacceptable. (21 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• A spokesman for the Scandinavian monitoring team says r trend in child recruitment by LTTE and other ceasefire vio (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/2683933.stm)
• 1795 families displaced from Sri Lanka Army (SLA) contro controlled areas in Vavuniya district have requested assist these families have been collected by the Vavuniya civil au 2003)-(www.Tamilnet.com)
• The LTTE is responsible for over 90 per cent of the cease Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission said today. (22 January 2003)
• Problems were encountered at the commencement of the 22 as the government representatives were not present a Monitoring Mission. (22 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• Sinhala Ururmaya (SU) is to meet the chairman of the Rad (RCRC) Mr. Themiya Hurulle to request for a Radio FM F
• In a meeting with a Swiss delegation headed by the ambas Bernardino Regazzoni today, S.P.Thamilchelvan, the politic immediate focus of the peace process should be on the hu East, according to the ambassador. (23 January 2003)-(ww
• Several political parties, trade unions, professionals and m a National Centre for Peace, which will marginalise anti-p JVP, according to Lands Minister Rajitha Senaratne. (23 Jan
• Presidential spokesman Mr. Harim Peiris says the Presiden the number of LTTE child soldiers has gone up from 6,000 to 16,000 at present. (23 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.co
• Norway annonced the appointment today of Mr. Tellefsen Mission. Outgoing chief, Mr. Furuhovde, also a retired ma 2002. (23 January 2003)-(AP/www.theacademic.org)
• A mother of a fifteen-year old son from Batticaloa has thr ablaze unless her LTTE abducted son is released, the army Island)
• The Human Rights Commission today started interviewin government troops took over major parts of the Jaffna Pe London-based human rights watchdog Amnesty Internatio after the Sri Lanka - military regained control of the area. (
• The Sri Lankan Government has ruled out the possibility open for a separate police force as part of the political so separatist conflict as stated by Prof. G.L. Peiris, Chief Neg Hindu/www.academic.org)
• The Eelanaadu in its January 20 issue reports that the LTT Grade 8 (13 to 14 years and above) in several schools in B that they had no faith in the peace process. (25 January 20
• The LTTE and the UNICEF begin a process to formulate a of children of the North and East affected by the armed c and children in armed conflict. (26 January 2003)-(Daily Mi
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga orders the Army and P abductions and other ceasefire violations by the LTTE. (26
• Sri Lanka's government plans to hold a referendum before rebels, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was quoted 2003)-(Associated Press /www.lankapage.com)
• The Ambassador for Switzerland in Sri Lanka Bernardino related to urgent humanitarian needs in the North and th leader, Thamilchelvan recently. (26 January 2003)-(www.th

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ted threats from radicals linked to Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda in suicide attacks developed by Sri Lanka’s Tiger rebels, security experts The Island)
mplaint made by the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission with regard to an l last week, conceding that the behaviour of some of its members was (Daily Mirror) n monitoring team says recent months had shown a clear downward
E and other ceasefire violations by both sides. (22 Jan 2003)- d/south_asia/2683933.stm)
anka Army (SLA) controlled areas and Liberation Tigers (LTTE) ict have requested assistance to resettle in their villages and details of d by the Vavuniya civil authorities, sources in Vavuniya said. (22 January
90 per cent of the ceasefire agreement violations during last year, the today. (22 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) he commencement of the Survvey of Jaffna residences scheduled for Jan tives were not present and the LTTE pulling out according to Sri Lanka 2003)-(Daily Mirror) t the chairman of the Radio Commission and Regulatory Commission request for a Radio FM Frequency. (22 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) ion headed by the ambassador for Switzerland in Sri Lanka Hon. Thamilchelvan, the political leader of the LTTE, has stressed that the
cess should be on the humanitarian needs of the people of the North- r. (23 January 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com) ions, professionals and media personnel to join the government to form ch will marginalise anti-peace groups such as Sihala Ururmaya and the Rajitha Senaratne. (23 January 2003)-(Daily News)
Peiris says the Presidential Secretariat has received information that s has gone up from 6,000 before the signing of the ceasefire agreement 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) ent today of Mr. Tellefsen, the new chief of Sri Lanka Monitoring
hovde, also a retired major general, has led the monitors since Feb. 22, w.theacademic.org) n from Batticaloa has threatened to commit suicide by setting herself son is released, the army website reported. (23 January 2003)-(The
oday started interviewing families of people who went missing after ajor parts of the Jaffna Peninsula from Tamil Tiger rebels in 1995. hdog Amnesty International has estimated that 540 people disappeared ined control of the area. (24 January 2003)-(AP/www.theacademic.org) ruled out the possibility of two separate armies, but keeps the option as part of the political solution to end the island's decades-long of. G.L. Peiris, Chief Negotiator. (25 January 2003)-(The
sue reports that the LTTE conducted meetings for students above ve) in several schools in Batticaloa where senior LTTE cadres stressed e process. (25 January 2003)-(The Island)
a process to formulate an action plan to restore normalcy in the lives affected by the armed conflict with special emphasis on child labour 6 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) a orders the Army and Police chiefs to take ' immediate action' to stop iolations by the LTTE. (26 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
old a referendum before signing a final peace deal with Tamil Tiger remesinghe was quoted as saying the Sunday Observer. (26 January ankapage.com)
in Sri Lanka Bernardino Regazzoni says that he discussed matters eeds in the North and the East when he met with LTTE's political wing 26 January 2003)-(www.theacademic.org)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) will not acce military experts that link the "critical humanitarian issue" refugees in Jaffna to disarming of its cadres and de-commi negotiator and political strategist, Mr Anton Balasingham, (27 January 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com)
• Batticaloa appears to be in confusion over the board Batticaloa town at “Pillaradi Junction”, a Government con to the land of Heroes”, which was removed on Mond conflicting reports. (27 January 2003)- (Daily Mirror)
• The first commander of the U.N. Peace Keeping Forces in see the possibility of a review of Sri Lanka's northern High Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) "deposits its weapons to ne positions".). (27 January 2003)-(The Hindu -www.hinduonn
• The LTTE have admitted that they are still recruiting child (28 January 2003)-(BBC South Asia -16:17 GMT )
• Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse says there should b confidence of the Tamil people in the North. (28 January 2
• The business community of the North of Sri Lanka got a m Commerce (CCC) signed a landmark agreement with the immediate access to a new service which puts national an (28 January 2003)-(www.theacademic.org)
• Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe says that the service India will be obtained to deal with the issue of the high se 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)
• The World Bank says that it expects to begin disbursing fu North East and the funds would come from the 43 million November. (29 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)
• The United Kingdom's development assistance to Sri Lank and 20 million Sterling Pounds next year, making the UK t British Foreign Office Minister Mike O' Brien, who is expe (29 January 2003)-(Daily News)
• Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission informs LTTE to withdraw cinemas of Vavuniya and Mannar where it is currently s LTTE has ever made. (29 January 2003)-(Lankadeepa (Dai
• The student population in the East launching the biggest e numbering over 15000, announces the ‘Oluvil Declaratio region in the East claiming that the North-East was their Island)
• A meeting of the World Bank (WB), the Government an discuss the modality in which the US $ 85 million should Prof. G. L. Peiris. (29 January 2003)-(The Island)
• The LTTE is planning a hartal shortly in the Batticaloa removed a cut-out put up by the LTTE at Pillayar Junction 2003)-(The Island)
• Presidential advisor and parliamentarian Anura Bandar dissolve the government at the correct time once the PA (29 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)
• The LTTE proposes holding meetings between the paren district commanders and Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission recruitment, the SLMM announces. (30 January 2003)-(Dai
• Presidential Advisor Anura Bandaranaike warns the gove executive powers if it fails to take action to curb allege 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• Taking a decisive stand on child soldiers, UNICEF Executi Sri Lanka calls for words to be translated into action and enough not to be taken in by mere assurances. (1 Februar
• Premier Ranil Wickremasinghe makes a fresh call for the (1 February 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)

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lam (LTTE) will not accept recommendations from international tical humanitarian issue" of resettling internally displaced persons and its cadres and de-commissioning of its weapons, the movement's chief , Mr Anton Balasingham, told the Tamil Guardian newspaper Monday. t.com)
fusion over the board put up two months ago at the entrance to tion”, a Government controlled area, which has the wording “Welcome was removed on Monday January 26 and re-erected on 27, amidst 003)- (Daily Mirror) . Peace Keeping Forces in former Yugoslavia, Satish Nambiar, does not Sri Lanka's northern High Security Zones (HSZs), unless the Liberation posits its weapons to neutral supervision and withdraws from frontline he Hindu -www.hinduonnet.com) y are still recruiting child soldiers, international peace monitors said. sia -16:17 GMT ) pakse says there should be a political programme to build the
the North. (28 January 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) orth of Sri Lanka got a major boost when the Ceylon Chamber of ark agreement with the Jaffna trade chambers, to provide them e which puts national and global business information at their fingertips. emic.org) nghe says that the services of two military experts from Britain and h the issue of the high security zones in the Northeast. (28 January
ects to begin disbursing funds in February for the reconstruction of the come from the 43 million dollar emergency package approved in 2001 ww.lankapage.com) ent assistance to Sri Lanka will be 15 million Sterling Pounds this year xt year, making the UK the second largest bilateral donor, visiting ike O' Brien, who is expected in Colombo today, said in a statement.
orms LTTE to withdraw their film "Kadal Kaattru" ("Sea Breeze") from r where it is currently shown. This film is the most expensive movie y 2003)-(Lankadeepa (Daily))
st launching the biggest ever procession of Muslims in the history today, es the ‘Oluvil Declaration’ at Oluvil which called for a separate Muslim the North-East was their traditional homeland. (29 January 2003)-(The
B), the Government and the LTTE will be held in Colombo today to US $ 85 million should be expended, according to Cabinet spokesman 03)-(The Island)
hortly in the Batticaloa area after the police had for the second time LTTE at Pillayar Junction, Batticaloa, police intelligence said. (29 January
entarian Anura Bandaranaike has announced that his sister would orrect time once the PA forms a new alliance and organizes islandwide. ge.com)
tings between the parents of children that have joined the LTTE, Tiger anka Monitoring Mission with regard to complaints related to child
s. (30 January 2003)-(Daily Mirror) aranaike warns the government that the President would exercise her ke action to curb alleged LTTE violations of the ceasefire. (31 January
oldiers, UNICEF Executive Director Carol Bellamy who is on a visit in ranslated into action and asserts that she had dealt with the issue long re assurances. (1 February 2003)-(The Island)
akes a fresh call for the opposition to help the country achieve peace. ge.com)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCT
14TH F
EBRUARY
2003
♦ Uncertainty as to when there will be peace in Sr
January 2003. Over 65% of the Sinhala comm community are unable to indicate when there will of the Tamil and 47% of the Up-country Tamil com soon. (Ref. Page 11)
♦ An overwhelming majority (83.7%) continues to
through peace talks. (Ref. Page 12)
♦ The decline in the opinion that the Governmen
through talks still continues. (70.2% in July 2002 Page 13)
♦ 38.3% believe that the Government goes in for t peace’. However, the belief that the Government g hardship’ rises from 20.1% in November 2002 to Muslim (44%) and Up-county Tamil (50.2%) co ‘Economic hardship’, the Tamil community feels (29.3%) that drives the Government to go in for tal
♦ There is a decline in the belief that the LTTE goes that this war cannot be won (30.8% in November There is however an increase in the belief that th the people’ from 16.1% in November 2002 to 28. mainly stems from the Sinhala community (33.8%). (
♦ Whilst 19% of the Sinhala community believes th LTTE should be involved in negotiation, 27.8% of there should be an International third party invo Muslim and 45.6% of the Up-country Tamil co spectrum of involvement in negotiations. (Ref. Page
♦ Overall approval for Norway assisting in the peac
2003 (42.3%) while the disapproval has increased the Up-country Tamil (79.6%) communities ho Norway’s assistance. (Ref. Page 19)
♦ The approval (38.2%) for Norway continuing t
whereas there is an increase in the disapproval stems from the Sinhala community. (Ref. Page 20)
♦ There is an increase in the opinion that India’s
impact’ (35.5%) in the Sri Lankan peace process. (Re

ndex
THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
31ST J
ANUARY TO 14 F
EBRUARY
2003
here will be peace in Sri Lanka is expressed by 60.1% in of the Sinhala community and 39% of the Muslim indicate when there will be peace in Sri Lanka while 55.3% he Up-country Tamil communities feel there will be peace
y (83.7%) continues to believe peace can be achieved Page 12)
n that the Government is committed to finding peace es. (70.2% in July 2002 to 56.7% in January 2003) (Ref.
overnment goes in for talks due to its ‘Commitment to f that the Government goes in for talks due to ‘Economic in November 2002 to 28.6% in January 2003. While the ounty Tamil (50.2%) communities chiefly believe it is Tamil community feels that it is ‘International pressure’ vernment to go in for talks. (Ref. Page 15)
elief that the LTTE goes in for talks due to the realization on (30.8% in November 2002 to 25.6% in January 2003). ase in the belief that the LTTE goes in for talks ‘To fool November 2002 to 28.7% in January 2003. This opinion ala community (33.8%). (Ref. Page 16)
community believes that only the Government and the in negotiation, 27.8% of the Tamil community feels that national third party involvement as well. 44.9% of the e Up-country Tamil communities advocate the widest n negotiations. (Ref. Page 17)
ay assisting in the peace process has declined in January sapproval has increased to 28.2%. The Tamil (85.9%) and 79.6%) communities however, overwhelmingly support Page 19)
r Norway continuing to facilitate talks has decreased, ease in the disapproval (29.4%). This disapproval mainly
munity. (Ref. Page 20)
he opinion that India’s involvement ‘Will add a positive ankan peace process. (Ref. Page 21)
003
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ Of those aware of the involvement of foreign m 84.5% of the Tamil and 84.2% of the Muslim comm monitoring mission for the CFA to succeed. Howe opinion (25.3%) when compared to November 200
♦ There is a division in the Sinhala opinion on t
Disagree – 30.9%) and the effectiveness (Agree – SLMM in its monitoring of the CFA. The other co agreement. (Ref. Page 23 and Page 24)
♦ 82.7% of the Tamils believe that the LTTE is the
community, while 65.6% of the Sinhala community b
♦ Of those aware that the LTTE recently obtained h
disapprove of the Government permitting the equipment and granting a license to the LTTE pea Page 27)
♦ 66.7% of those aware of Norwegian Government of the hi-tech radio equipment for the LTTE Government’s involvement. (Ref. Page 28)
♦ 36.9% of those aware that the Government and th solution within a united Sri Lanka, approve of it, wh and 22.1% are uncertain. 46.8% of the Sinhala agreement, which is in contrast to the overwhelm communities. (Ref. Page 29)
♦ 56% of those aware of the decision taken by th accelerate the resettlement of the IDPs outside th positive impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 30)
♦ Of those aware of the Government’s request fo military experts to look at the issue of HSZs 39 positive impact on the peace process. Conversel Page 31)
♦ 54.3% of the Sri Lankans are satisfied with the pro
Page 33)
♦ 61% of the Muslim community feels that the inter of the East are not being adequately represented in
♦ The cost of living is the most important issue of th Lankans while the ethnic conflict (18.8%) and un second and third most important issues respe however places the ethnic conflict (30%) as their m

ndex
volvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the CFA, .2% of the Muslim communities stress the need for such a CFA to succeed. However, nationally there is a fall in this pared to November 2002 (29.7%). (Ref. Page 22)
e Sinhala opinion on the impartiality (Agree – 26.1%, e effectiveness (Agree – 23.1%, Disagree – 31.1%) of the f the CFA. The other communities however, extend their and Page 24)
ve that the LTTE is the sole representative of the Tamil f the Sinhala community believes otherwise. (Ref. Page 25)
TTE recently obtained hi-tech radio equipment, over 61% rnment permitting the LTTE to import hi-tech radio license to the LTTE peace secretariat. (Ref. Page 26 and
Norwegian Government’s involvement in the importation uipment for the LTTE disapprove of the Norwegian t. (Ref. Page 28)
t the Government and the LTTE have agreed to a federal i Lanka, approve of it, while 41% express their disapproval . 46.8% of the Sinhala community disapproves of the ntrast to the overwhelming approval given by the other 9)
he decision taken by the Government and the LTTE to t of the IDPs outside the HSZs, believe that it will have a ce process. (Ref. Page 30)
overnment’s request for an International committee of at the issue of HSZs 39.8% perceive that it will have a ace process. Conversely 37.2% remain undecided. (Ref.
re satisfied with the progress of the peace process. (Ref.
unity feels that the interests and concerns of the Muslims dequately represented in the peace talks. (Ref. Page 34)
ost important issue of the day for a majority (48.2%) of Sri conflict (18.8%) and unemployment (16.5%) rank as the important issues respectively. The Tamil community conflict (30%) as their main concern. (Ref. Page 36)
003
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ When people were asked what kind of impact the
living conditions, 33.9% say the peace process h conditions. However, 81.1% of the Tamil comm positive impact on their living condition. (Ref. Page 3
♦ 36.2% of those aware of the talks between the SLF of an impact that an alliance between their two process. Conversely, the Tamil (47.1%), the Mus Tamil (65.8%) communities believe that these talks peace process. (Ref. Page 39)
♦ 46.6% of those aware of JVP’s campaign against th
living disapprove of JVP’s campaign against the (61.5%) across the ethnic communities approve o living (Sinhala –60.7%, Tamil – 66.6%, Muslim – 60 (Ref. Page 40 and Page 41)
♦ An overwhelming majority (70.5%) of those
rehabilitation and reconstruction in the North and
For further information please co
Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Pe
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternativ
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: cpapoll@diamon Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpa

ndex
what kind of impact the peace process has had on their ay the peace process has had no impact on their living 1% of the Tamil community believes that it has had a ing condition. (Ref. Page 37)
he talks between the SLFP and the JVP are unable to think nce between their two parties will have on the peace Tamil (47.1%), the Muslim (47.9%) and the Up-country s believe that these talks will have a negative impact on the 39)
JVP’s campaign against the peace process and the cost of campaign against the peace process, while a majority communities approve of their campaign on the cost of il – 66.6%, Muslim – 60.8%, Up-country Tamil – 69.7%). )
ity (70.5%) of those aware of Japan’s key role in uction in the North and East approve of it. (Ref. Page 42)
her information please contact:
ma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator ntre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 5 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
003
Page 8

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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX
(P
M
AY
2001 – J
ANUARY
200
T
HE
P
ERCEPTION OF
W
AR AND
P
EACE
What does ‘peace’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
70
63 60
50
54
49.2
46.1
52.7
54.5
53.9
50.6
%
40
36.7
34.7
35.9
35 37.5
34.7
36.4
30
24.7
35.7
32
29.3 29
21.6
25.9
10.4
14.9
0
May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 Se
Ethnic Breakdown
35.9
31
25.4 20
10
15.3 16.2
11.2
18.3
15.5
9.8
18.6
Up-country Tamil
26.4
25
9.4
Muslim
35.3
16.1
36.8
Tamil
28.7
46.7
40.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
48.3
9.2
32.5
Sinhala

I C
ONFIDENCE
NDEX
(PCI)
Y
2001 – J
ANUARY
2003
P
ACE
ou? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
54.5
53.9
50.6 50.5
47.2
44.9
34.1
16.7
14.9
12.6
9.8
End of war
Ethnic Harmony
Feeling Safe
Freedom
thnic Breakdown
.9
41.4
36.4
35.8
42.7 37.5
34.7
31.2
34.7
35
25.9
25.4 15.5
14.9
May '02 September '02 January '03
76
.3
46.7
Freedom 78
Feeling safe Ethnic Harmony 6.8
End of war
0 50 60 70 80 90
%
48.3
40.7
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What does ‘war’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
70
60.2
58.9 60
54.4 51.3
50.8 50
39.6
43.1
42.8
40 %
30
27.1
30.3
24.5 25.2
27.4
16.2 16.4
16.6 11.4
3.3
June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 Nove
Ethnic Breakdown
4.4
23.9
26.4
26.2
22.9
15
22.9 20
21.5
20.3 17.1
21.5
18.2 21.2 12.3
0.3
7.8
16.7
16.2
10.9
15.8
10
16.8
12.4
9.8
12.9
9.9
9.4
0
8.6
3.5
2.7
3.5
2.7
7
Up-country Tamil
3.5
22
26.6
36.8
10.4
Muslim
2.1
13.1
16.4
37.2
11.2
Tamil
10.2
20.7
23.8 25
8.5
Sinhala
14.1
24.4
29.4
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
60.2
58.9
57.8
1.4 9.9
4.6
Means to achieving peace 54.4
Fighting for rights
Disharmony amongst races
Hindrance to economic growth/ Rise in cost of living Death / Destruction
Terrorism
thnic Breakdown
.6
37.2
55.9
26.4
26.2
27.4
26
27.7
21.2
16.2
22.9
16.2
22.3
25.7
16.6
15.8
9.4
13.2
8.7
3.3 3.5
15.6
2.7
8.7
3.5
July '02 November '02
56.6
40 50 60 %
36.8
29.4
Terrorism
54.6
Death / Destruction
Hindrance to economic growth/ Rise in cost of living
53.2
Disharmony amongst races
Fighting for rights
56.1
Means to achieving peace
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
When will there be peace in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
80
21.1
May '01 September
'01
71.3 70
63.8
60
53.9
54.5
57.9
57.2
60
58
50
%
40
30
20
18.9
0
Ethnic Breakdown
11.8
24.8
22.1
10
11
13.4
10.2 9.9 10.6 7.5
7.2
6.7 4.9
6.8
9
January '02
May '02
28.6
Up-country Tamil
3.6 3.7
4.9
12.3
26.1
1.3
8.5
2.1
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
47
Muslim
2.2
3.9
5.4
9.7
39.6
9.2
38.2
Tamil
2.3
10.3
2.9 3.2
5
Sinhala

Sri Lanka?
National Trend
57.2
60
58.4
58.6
60.1
57.6
21.1
24.8
17.7
8.2
May '02 September
'02
Soon
Never
24.8
22.1
21
Do not know
4.9
6.8
9
7.6 10.4
thnic Breakdown
55.3
January '03
47
39.6
65.8
40 50 60 70
%
Do not know Never
38.2
Not in my life time Within the next ten years Within the next five years Soon
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
S
OLUTIONS TO THE
C
ONFLICT
How do you think we can end the war and have
Answers]
National Trend
100
90
85
87.2
84.4
59.1
18
0
May '01 September
'01
80.7 80
71.3
68.6
71.9
70
60
%
50
40
30
24.4
20
7.6
Ethnic Breakdown
7.5
19.9 20
10
9.9
7
10.1
1.3
0.8 1 0.9
1.1
0.8
0.8
January '02
May '02 S
Up-country Tamil
0.3
1.8
Muslim
0.2 1.9
Tamil
1.4 0
81 Sinhala
0.2
0 20 40 60 80
%

end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka? [Multiple
National Trend
85
87.2
84.4
86
83.7
83.7
5.5
May '02 September
'02
Government defeating the LTTE
LTTE defeating the Government
7.6 7
10.1
7.2 6.5
Peace talks
1 0.8
0.8
1 1.1 0.3
thnic Breakdown
81.9
January '03
89.9
91.8
60 80 100
Peace talks
LTTE defeating the 95.2
Government
Government defeating the LTTE
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
C
ONFIDENCE
I think the Government is committed to find peace th
National Trend
80
69.8
7
70
61.8 58 60
50.2
53
50
43.8 44 %
40
31.4
30
23.8
22.5
24.5
20
11.9
9.8
9.1 10
0
May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02
Ethnic Breakdown
2.5 Up-country Tamil
16.9
5.3 Muslim
8.7
6.6 Tamil
9.8
24
54.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
%
63
Sinhala
14.1

mmitted to find peace through talks.
National Trend
69.8
70.2
63.7 61.8
59.4
56.7
20.9 12 9.1
Agree
Disagree
hnic Breakdown
54.2
15.1
9.8
18.6
'02 May '02 September '02 January '03
72.1
40 50 60 70 80
%
Disagree
73.3
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree 63
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through t
National Trend
80
68.5 70
63.5
60
50.6
53.2
50
45.
42.7
39.5 %
40
32.9
30
22.2
20
15.8
17.3
12.9
0
May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02
27.3
25.7
27
9.8
10
Ethnic Breakdown
6.1
Up-country Tamil
16.2
45.4
23.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
6
9.4
Muslim
15.9
18.9
46.1
2.6
Tamil
12.1
6
Sinhala

to find peace through talks.
National Trend
45.7
7
39.5
32.9
38.2
39.8
38.9
Agree Disagree
29
27.3
25.7
02 May '02 September '02 January '03
ic Breakdown
63.3
29.3
27.5
28.3
63.1
46.1
45.4
40 50 60 70
Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
Page 14

Page 18
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the Government goes in for ta
National Trend
60
50
44.6
48.8
45.3
39
39.5
41.7
42.1
40
%
37.5
35.8
35.5
33.2
32.4
32.5
30
33.4
27
28.9
29.6
24.5
24.1
24.1
18.6
19.9 19.8
15.5
9.7
10
June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 No
Ethnic Breakdown
39.6
28.9
20
18
12.2
8.4
17.2 19.7
16.2
17.6
12.4
10
14.5
7.1
9.5
0
7.4
4.5
11.9
8
10.6 8.8 4.2 3.5 4.3
3.2
Up-country
4.9 7
Tamil
6.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
33
11.9
19.1
24.2
50.2
12.7
33.2
Muslim
0.9
13.1
16.6
28
26.7
43.2 44
Tamil
0.4
3.2
11.4
21.3
24.5
29.3
Sinhala

overnment goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
48.8
45.3
42.1
38.3
33.2
32.4
32.5
38.3
Commitment to peace
29.9
Economic hardship
.1
28.9
28.6
International pressure
20.1
Realisation that this war
10.3
14.1
10.3
cannot be won
To fool the people
8.8
7.1 Lack of manpower
Breakdown
3.2
24.1
24.1
17.2
12.4
10
8
10.6
6.6 4.3
3.2 3.9
July '02 November '02
50.2
50 60
Lack of manpower
To fool the people
4
Realisation that this war cannot be won International pressure
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
Page 15

Page 19
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for talks? [M
National Trend
50
44.9 45
40
34.6 35
31.3
31.5
30.8
30
27.7
%
25
29.1
27.3
22.4
27.9
25.1
24.5
24.7
23.4
27.4
20
18.7
18.3
19.1
20.4
19
14.9
18.1
15.5
June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 Nov
Ethnic Breakdown
12.7
23.9
22.
18.2
20
15.9
18.6
14.6
13.8
12.3
8.9
14.4
6.6
16.9 15.2
15.4
15
16.7
13.9
13 14.6
10.3
0
14.9
12.4
13.1
10
12.5
12.8
5
8.5
18.3
Up-country Tamil
3.1
20.4
25.7
30.3
14.2
20.2
26
33.8
0 10 20 30 40
%
35.6
4.8 Muslim
29.1
18.3
27.7 27.9
29.8
Tamil
0.4
3.2
10.2
14.7
19.1
16.5
39.7
Sinhala

TE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
23.4
Commitment to peace
31.5
30.8
Economic hardship
28.7
27.4
International pressure
Realisation that this war cannot be won
18.1
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
nic Breakdown
39.7
30.8
27.7
24.7
25.6
23.9
22.5 20
16.1 16.1
14.4
12.4
20.5 19
18.2 18.6 14.6
12.8 10.3
16.7
13.9
16.5 13.1
13.2
14.5
July '02 November '02
30.3
5.7
35.6
27.9
26
33.8
Lack of manpower
29.1
27.7
To fool the people
29.8
Realisation that this war cannot be won International pressure
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
30 40 50
Page 16

Page 20
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
T
HE
P
EACE
P
ROCESS
Who should be involved in negotiations?
National Trend
40
36.7
35
32.1
33.9
30
31.3
25.1
25.8 25
23
21.6
21.7 19.9
21.9
%
20
19 16.2
15
15.5
12.4
15.9
15.1
14.2
16.4
19.1
13.5
14 15.5
12.1 11
16.6
10
6.6
5
4.3 4
4.8
2.1
2.1 2.5 2.4
1.9
0
May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02
Ethnic Breakdown
0
5.1
Up-country Tamil
1.9
4.1
4.6
14.2
16.9
0
7.6
Muslim
1 1
2.2
6.1
32.4
4
0
Tamil
3.4 4
15.5
21.5
6
6.6
27.8
1.2
7.9
7.3
7
14.7 Sinhala
14.6
12.3
19
0 10 20 30 40
%

gotiations?
National Trend
12.9
1
Govt. and LTTE only
25.8
27
Govt.,LTTE and
21.7
19.9
International third party only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third party
No peace talks
Ethnic Breakdown
32.4
21.9
19.1
18.3
12.1
11
16.6
16.4
17.2
6.6 9.5
2.5 2.4
1.9
1.4
ay '02 September '02 January '03
45.6
27.8
30 40 50
Do not know
No peace talks
44.9
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt. and LTTE only
Page 17

Page 21
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NTERNATIONAL
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
What is your opinion of the need for an internationa solve the North East war in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
40
38
35.8
35
32.6
32.5
32.5 30.9
3
30
28.9
25
24.2
20.9
29
28.8
21.8
26
%
20
15
16.8
16
16.5
14.2
13.2
1
10 9.6
9.6
1 10.2
0
September '01 January '02 May '02 Septe
Ethnic Breakdown
23.3
13.1 11.3 10
9.9
11.3
9.2
10.3
5
5.4
3.2
2.1
0.7
0.9
7.1
2.9
0
7.3 Up-country Tamil
2.4
26.5
9.2
1.3
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
53.5
Muslim
0.9 5
6
7.9
20.2
6.3
20.1
32.8
58.8
5.4
6.6
Tamil
1.2 1.4
85.4
Sinhala

F
ILITATION
need for an international third party’s involvement to ri Lanka?
National Trend
32.5 30.9
31.9
30.2
30.6 29
26.1
0.9
1.4
Is essential 29
28.8
29 Will add a positive
impact
Will have no impact
13.1
13.2
14.2
16.7
17.9
Will add a negative impact
9.6
10.2
11.6
10.5
9.5
Is not essential
Do not know
3.2 2.1
May '02 September '02 January '03
Breakdown
85.4
5.4 4.6
5.7
1.4 1.4
Do not know Is not essential Will add a negative impact
8.8
Will have no impact Will add a positive impact Is essential
80 100
Page 18

Page 22
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
N
ORWEGIAN
F
ACILITATION
Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process
National Trends
60
53.8
50.7 50
42.4 42.7
40
37
%
30
19.4
15.5
18
13.6 12.8
January '02 May '02 September '0
Ethnic Breakdown
36.2
24.5
20.5
23.1
22.4
20
18
22.8
22.1
9.1 7.8 0
17.9
10
7.7
Up-country Tamil
7.3 5.4
22.4
Muslim
9.4
15.6
20.1
32.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
51.6
7.3
Tamil
1.7
5.2
Sinhala
10.9

nkan peace process
National Trends
42.4
46.3
37
42.3
Approve
24.5
22.4
23
28.2
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove 22.8
22.1
21.8
18.7
Do not know 13.6 12.8
10.2
8.8
September '02 January '03
Ethnic Breakdown
79.6
85.9
50 60 70 80 90 100
%
Do not know
51.6
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Norway continuing to facilitate talks.
National Trend
50
45
44.1
40
41.3
35
30 %
25
22.6
23.3
20
21.8
10.7
0
September '02 November '02 Jan
Ethnic Breakdown
32.3
21.8
15
10
13.6
5
15.3
Up-country Tamil
9.2 9.3
7.3
20.7
33.6
0 20 40 60 80
%
66.3
12.7
23.3
Muslim
10.4
16.5
48.8
Tamil
1.7
5.2
Sinhala

te talks.
National Trend
.1
38.2
.8
11.9
Approve
29.4
Neither approve nor .3
disapprove
19.7
Disapprove
Do not know
er '02 January '03
thnic Breakdown
66.3
85.9
60 80 100
%
Do not know
48.8
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NDIA
’
S
I
NVOLVEMENT
What is your opinion of the need for India’s involve process?
National Trend
40
35
31.7
33.8
30
27
32.7
25
26.1
26.6 20.8 %
20
16.2
16.4
15.6 15
19.2
14.9
13.1
12.5
13.5
1.2
1.9 1.3
May '02 September '02
14.3
10
5
3.5
5.9
8.4
9.2
0
Ethnic Breakdown
10.7
2.7
Up-country Tamil
9.2
2.5
2.9
23.9
16.3
1.6
7.5
16.7
17.1
0 10 20 30 40
%
44
Muslim
1.7
5.6
8
11.8
18.7
Tamil
2.4
4.6
14.9
19.9
22.3
35.9
Sinhala
40.1

need for India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace
National Trend
35.5
32.7
Is essential
Will add a positive impact
19.2
Will have no impact
Will add a negative impact
Is not essential
Do not know .3
1.7
thnic Breakdown
35.9
17.4 14.9
16.8
14.3
16.2
9.2
7.1
2.7
er '02 January '03
9
30 40 50 60
%
44.3
40.1
Do not know
Is not essential
53.5
Will add a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will add a positive impact
Is essential
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
R
ECENT
P
OLITICAL
D
EVELO
S
RI
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
If you are aware of the involvement of foreign ceasefire, what is your opinion of the need for such ceasefire agreement to succeed?
National Trend
45
40
37.9
39.4
39.3
40.5
41
35
31.2
33.6
29.7 30
26.7 26.3 25 %
20
15
10
10.3
7.3
4.6
5.6 5
4.2 1.9
4.2
March '02 July '02 November
Ethnic Breakdown
17.2
6.7
5.2
8.4
5.8
5.6
4.1 1.9 1.7 4.5 0
1.4
3.8
0.6
1.1
Up-country Tamil
3.6 0
4
31
Will b
56.9
of Sri
Muslim
0
0.9
1 1.8
7.9
Is not
84.2
Will h
Tamil
0
0
0 0.8
11.9
Will h
84.5 1.8
4.5
8.7
10.5
41.1
Will h Sinhala
Is ess
0 20 40 %
60 80 100

P T
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
nvolvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the on of the need for such a monitoring mission for the ed?
National Trend
25.3
Is essential 40.5
41.5
37.5
Will have a positive impact 29.7 26.3
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Is not essential 8.4
5.6
3.8
1.7
4.2
4.1
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
reakdown
84.5
9.6 5.8
4.5
7.5
0.6
1.7
November '02
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
Is not essential
84.2
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
Is essential
0 100
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impar ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
40
35.5
35
29
31.7
33.2
30
33.1
26.8
27.4
25
22.5
28.9
23.6
21.4
%
20
15
15.7
18 17.8
18
14.6 10
5
0
May '02 September '02
Ethnic Breakdown
23.7
Up-country Tamil
2.5
14.7
22.6
Muslim
12.4
19.4
45.5
19.6
Tamil
6.7
9.7
23
Sinhala
20.1
30.9
26.1
0 10 20 30 %
40 50

toring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the
National Trend
.7
33.2
6.8
27.4
30.3
Agree
23.6
Neither agree nor disagree 19.2
Disagree
8
18
Do not know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
64
27.6
21.4
22.8
er '02 January '03
59.1
.9
%
40 50 60 70
Do not know/Not sure
45.5
Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
Page 23

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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effect ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
35
31.4
30.5 30
28.7
25
26.1
26
24.3
21.3
24.8 23.8 %
20
20.3
21.4
19.3 15
10
5
0
July '02 September '02 November '02
Ethnic Breakdown
23.1
29.9
Up-country Tamil
6.4
16.8
25.5
31.1
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
47
20.3
27.5
Muslim
11.5
20.9
40.1
24.4
Tamil
7.9
12.1
Sinhala

toring Mission is effective in its monitoring of the
National Trend
30.5
28
24.3
25.7
26.6
Agree
23.8
21.4
19.7
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Do not know/Not sure
November '02 January '03
Ethnic Breakdown
29.9
47
.5
55.7
31.1
0 40 50 60
Do not know/Not sure
40.1
Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
LTTE
I think the LTTE is the sole representative of the Tam
National Trend
70
60
54.8 54.5
56.8
5
50
%
40
30
17.5
18 16.8
10.4
8.1
May '02 September '02
Ethnic Breakdown
12.3
2
20
9.4
11
0
9.3
12.9 10
10.5 10
7
Up-country Tamil
13.2
37.1
42.1
27.8
Muslim
12.3
37
20.7
6.8
Tamil
6 3.7
8.1
Sinhala
11.3
65.6
0 20 40 60 80
%

presentative of the Tamil community.
National Trend
56.8
55
58.9
16.8
18.7 11.6
11 9
ptember '02 January '03
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
22.4
Do not know
10.5 10
thnic Breakdown
1
82.7
65.6
60 80 100
%
Do not know
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that the LTTE recently obtained hi- tell me if you approve or disapprove of the importation of this equipment?
National Breakdown
22.3
7.2
61.7
8.8
Ethnic Breakdown
8.8
National
7.2
15.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
61
22.3
2.1
Up-country Tamil
4.2
9.1
8.5
Muslim
14.7
45.5
31.3
12.5
Tamil
2
10.7
8.8
Sinhala
6.8
%

TE recently obtained hi-tech radio equipment, please r disapprove of the Government permitting the t?
onal Breakdown
22.3
7.2
Approve Neither approve nor disapprove Disapporve Don’t know/ Not sure
thnic Breakdown
61.7
74.9
40 50 60 70 80 90
%
84.7
68.6
Don’t know/ Not sure
45.5
Disapporve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that the LTTE recently obtained hi- tell me if you approve or disapprove of the Governm the LTTE peace secretariat?
National Breakdown
22.1
7.2
61.2
9.5
Ethnic Breakdown
9.5
National
7.2
15.5
61.2
22.1
2.8
Up-country Tamil
4.6 4.2
5.8
Muslim
15.4
45.9
33
12.5
Tamil
2
13.3
9.2
Sinhala
6.6
68
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

TE recently obtained hi-tech radio equipment, please pprove of the Government granting a radio license to
al Breakdown
22.1
7.2
Approve Neither approve nor disapprove Disapporve Don’t know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
61.2
72.2
50 60 70 80 90 100
%
88.4
68.1
Don’t know/ Not sure 45.9
Disapporve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
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Page 31
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the Norwegian Government’s in of the equipment, do you approve or disapprove of involvement?
National Breakdown
13.2
20.1
66.7
Ethnic Breakdown
13.2 National
66.7 20.1
3.8 Up-country Tamil
14.3
0
14
72.3 13.7
%
81.9
15.1 Muslim
58.1 26.9
0 Tamil
100
Sinhala
0 20 40 60 80 100

wegian Government’s involvement in the importation prove or disapprove of the Norwegian Government’s
al Breakdown
20.1
Approve Disapprove Don’t know/ Not sure
hnic Breakdown
66.7
81.9
100
72.3
80 100 120
Don’t know/ Not sure
.1
Disapprove Approve
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Page 32
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
P
EACE
T
ALKS
If you are aware that the Government and the LT solution within a united Sri Lanka, do you app agreement?
National Breakdown
22.1
36.9
41
Ethnic Breakdown
22.1 National
41 36.9
0 Up-Country Tamil
2.9
22.3 Muslim
17.5
60.2
16.2 Tamil
8
75.8
23.6 Sinhala
46.8 29.3
0 20 40 60 %
80

overnment and the LTTE have agreed to a federal ri Lanka, do you approve or disapprove of this
l Breakdown
36.9
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know/ Not sure
ic Breakdown
75.8
97.1
60 %
80 100 120 Don’t know/ Not
sure 60.2
Disapprove
Approve
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the decision taken by the Go accelerate the resettlement of the IDPs, what in your this decision on the peace process?
National Breakdown
60
56
50
40
%
30
20
11 11.3 10
0
Will have a positive
Will have no impact Will have a neg impact
impact
Ethnic Breakdown
16.8 National
11.3 11
17.3 10.6
57.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
56
9.4
16.7 Up-Country Tamil
15.9
32 30.3
12 Muslim
7.2
16.2
6
15 Tamil
11.2 13
58.4
Sinhala

cision taken by the Government and the LTTE to f the IDPs, what in your opinion will be the impact of ocess?
nal Breakdown
11.3
16.8
pact Will have a negative
impact
Don't know/ Not sure
thnic Breakdown
56
57.4
40 50 60 70
Don't know/ Not sure Will have a negative impact
61.3
Will have no impact Will have a positive impact
58.4
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that the Government has asked a military experts to look at the issue of HSZs, what impact of this decision on the peace process?
National Breakdown
45
39.8 40
35
30
25 %
20
15
12.3
10
7.9
5
0
Will have a positive
Will have no impact Will have a negat impact
impact
Ethnic Breakdown
37.2 National
7.9
12.3
40.7 6.3
39.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
39.8
10.3
28.6 Up-Country Tamil
12.6
27.2 28
25.1 Muslim
9.9
16.1
48.9
14.7 Tamil
15.1
21.1
49
Sinhala

overnment has asked an international committee of the issue of HSZs, what in your opinion will be the
peace process?
al Breakdown
7.9
37.2
ct Will have a negative
impact
Don't know/ Not sure
nic Breakdown
37.2
39.8
6
40.7
39.5
40 50 60
Don't know/ Not sure Will have a negative impact 48.9
Will have no impact Will have a positive impact
49
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware of the decision to establish a Nor (NERF) to be managed by the World Bank?
National Breakdown
57.4
Ethnic Breakdown
National
40.3
%
42.6
Up-Country Tamil
36.5
Muslim
4
Tamil
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40

sion to establish a North East Reconstruction Fund
World Bank?
reakdown
42.6
Yes No
thnic Breakdown
40.3
57.4
30 40 50 60 70
%
42.6
36.5
59.6
63.5
No Yes 45.7
52.2
49.1
48.9
Page 32

Page 36
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please state your level of satisfaction over the progres
National Breakdown
50
46.3
45
40
35
30
%
25
20
18.7
15
10
8
9
5
0
Highly satisfied Somewhat
satisfied
Ethnic Breakdown
5.9
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
Somew dissatisf
10.7
National
6.6 9
8
14.1
7.6
11.6
18.7
46.3
Up-Country Tamil
0.2 2
3.6
20.8
3.1
3.7
8.5
Muslim
8.1
18.5
51.3
Tamil
0.9
7.2
6.9 8
16
55
Sinhala
9.7
20.5
44.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 6
%

sfaction over the progress of the peace talks.
tional Breakdown
18.7
9
6.6
10.7
er satisfied issatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Highly dissatisfied
Don't know/ Not sure
thnic Breakdown
46.3
44.6
40 50 60 70
%
59.3
Don't know/ Not sure
Highly dissatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied 51.3
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Somewhat satisfied
55
Highly satisfied
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
T
HE
M
USLIM
C
OMMUNITY
Do you think the interest and concerns of the M adequately represented in the peace talks?
National Trend
40
35
30
29.6
29.4
25
22.9 %
20
18.9
15
10
5
0
Yes No Do
Ethnic Breakdown
35.6 National
22.9
29.4
23.8 Up-country Tamil
19.3
38.2
37.3 21.4
28.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
5
21.9 Muslim
15.1
33.1 Tamil
15
Sinhala

and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being
peace talks?
ational Trend
36.5
22.9
35.6
No Do not know/Not sure
November '02 January '03
thnic Breakdown
35.6
.4
61
38.2
37.3
2
40 50 60 70
%
52.8
Do not know/Not sure
No
33.1
Yes
Page 34

Page 38
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What in your opinion will be the impact on the peac concerns of the Muslims of the East are adequately re
National Breakdown
40
35
30
25
%
20
19.9
18.2
15
10
6.3
5
0
Will have a positive
Will have no impact Will have negative impact
impact
Ethnic Breakdown
34.6 National
6.3
18.2
19.9
9.1 Up-country Tamil
6
17.3
32.5
38.9 20.7 5.5
18.7
%
28.1
2.4 Muslim
2.1
6.8
18.4
15.3 Tamil
3.4
7.9
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40

the impact on the peace process, if the interest and e East are adequately represented in the peace talks?
l Breakdown
18.2
34.6
t Will have negative
impact
Don't know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
34.6
28.1
32.5
38.9
30 40 50
Don't know/Not sure Will have negative impact Will have no impact Will have a positive impact
Page 35

Page 39
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
L
IVING
C
ONDITIONS
Please rank the following issues according to your ord
National Breakdown
60
50
48.2
40
%
30
20
18.8
16.5
10
3.5
2.4 2.1 2.1
0
c i n h t e e T
t c i l f n o c h
t n e m y o l p
g n i v i l f o t
n o i t a c u d E m
s o C
m s i r o r r e T
Ethnic Breakdown
18.7
y t i r u c e S
e n U
n o i t p u r r o C
2.4
Up-country Tamil
0.6
0.7 0.8 0.9
1.8
1.8
2.5
0
0.4
1.1 1.2 1.6
2.3 2.3 2.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
48.4
3.7
11.6
27.8
Muslim
0.2
0.9 1
1.7 1.8
2.6
4.2
7
13.7
19.5
46.1
0
2.9
0 Tamil
0.8 0.9 2
17.5
16.4
27.5 30
Sinhala
15.6
49.9

es according to your order of importance
tional Breakdown
.4 2.1 2.1
0.5
2.5
1
1.7
m s i r o r r e T
y t i r u c e S
n o i t p u r r
l a t n e m
n o i t
r e d r o d C
n
u l l
y c a r c o
p
n
E
L
m
s t h g i r n a D
H
Breakdown
49.9
o
o r i v n
o
a w a
e
m u
48.4
0 50 60
Human rights Democracy Law and order Environmental pollution
46.1
Corruption Security Terrorism Education Cost of living Unemployment The ethnic conflict
Page 36

Page 40
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
In your opinion what kind of impact has the peace conditions?
National Breakdown
40
35
33.9
30
29
25
24.1
%
20
15
10
5
0
Has had a positive
Has had no impact Has had a negative impact
impact
Ethnic Breakdown
18.5
Do
8.9 National
29
33.9 24.1
3.8 Up-country Tamil
6.9
39.5
9.7
33.2
34.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
%
46.1
12.6 Muslim
13.1
44.8 24.1
0 Tamil
4.3
11.3
Sinhala

of impact has the peace process had on your living
akdown
29
8.9
Has had a negative impact
Don't know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
9.5
81.1
50 60 70 80 90
%
46.1
Don't know/Not sure
Has had a negative 44.8
impact
Has had no impact
Has had a positive impact
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
O
PPOSITION
’
S
R
OLE
If you are aware that the leader of the opposition M Jaffna recently, do you approve or disapprove of his vi
National Breakdown
23.9
Approve Disapprove 6.8
Don't know 69.3
Ethnic Breakdown
23.9 National
6.8
23.1
69.9
0 20 40 60 80
%
69.3
6.6
21.4 Up-country Tamil
6.8
71.5
14.3 Muslim
5.8
79.9
42.4 Tamil
11
45.7
Sinhala

ader of the opposition Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa visited
e or disapprove of his visit?
down
69.3
Approve Disapprove Don't know/ Not sure
ic Breakdown
69.3
71.5
69.9
60 80 100
Don't know/ Not sure Disapprove
79.9
Approve
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Page 42
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of talks between the SLFP and the J their two parties, what in your opinion will be the process?
National Breakdown
40
35
30
25
24.1
19.8 %
20
15.4 15
10
5
0
Will have a positive
Will have no impact Will have a nega impact
impact
Ethnic Breakdown
21.5
36.2 National
15.4
19.8
24.1
22.9 Up-country Tamil
4.3
5.8
Muslim
21.5
47.9
8
20.3
32.9 Tamil
6.4
10.1
47.1
37.6 Sinhala
15.8
20.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

ween the SLFP and the JVP about an alliance between our opinion will be the impact of this on the peace
al Breakdown
24.1
36.2
ct Will have a negative
impact
Don’t know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
.2
65.8
47.1
7.6
0 50 60 70
Don’t know/Not sure 47.9
Will have a negative impact Will have no impact Will have a positive impact
Page 39

Page 43
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of JVP’s current campaign against th of living,
a) Please tell me if you approve or disapprove
the peace process?
National Breakdown
50
24.6
17.5
Approve Neither approve nor
disapprove
46.6
45
40
35
30 %
25
20
15
10
5
0
Ethnic Breakdown
27.7
Disapprove
10.9 National
17.5
46.6
24.6
Up-country Tamil
3.2
6.6
86
3.7
10.5 Muslim
14.6
58.7
16.2
8.9 Tamil
2.5
85
3.7
Sinhala
11.3
19.5
41.1
0 20 40 60 80
%

rent campaign against the peace process and the cost
approve or disapprove of the JVP’s campaign against
Breakdown
46.6
10.9
r Disapprove Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
86.4
Don't know/Not sure
58.7
Disapprove Neither approve nor disapprove Approve
85
60 80 100
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Page 44
Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of JVP’s current campaign against th of living,
b) Please tell me if you approve or disapprove
the cost of living?
National Breakdown
70
61.5 60
50
40 %
30
20
13.2
16.2
10
0
Approve Neither approve nor
Disapprove disapprove
Ethnic Breakdown
National
8.8
16.2 13.2
9
15.6
60.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
61.5
4.7 Up-country Tamil
4.4
20.4
14.4
6
5.9 Muslim
15.2
18.1
60.8
11.7 Tamil
1.6
20.1
66.6
Sinhala

rent campaign against the peace process and the cost
approve or disapprove of the JVP’s campaign against
l Breakdown
16.2
8.8
nor Disapprove Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
61.5
69.7
Don't know/Not sure Disapprove
60.8
Neither approve nor disapprove Approve
66.6
60.7
50 60 70 80
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
J
APAN
’
S
R
OLE
If you are aware of Japan’s key role in rehabilitatio North and East, do you approve or disapprove of Jap reconstruction?
National Breakdown
14.2
15.3
App Dis Don 70.5
Ethnic Breakdown
14.2 National
15.3
0
15.5
65.1
0 20 40 60 80
%
70.5
7.3 Up-country Tamil
4.6
18.9
88
2.8 Muslim
1.5
10.9 Tamil
8
Sinhala

key role in rehabilitation and reconstruction in the ove or disapprove of Japan’s role in rehabilitation and
akdown
70.5
Approve Disapprove Don't know/ Not sure
ic Breakdown
70.5
88.2
65.1
60 80 100
Don't know/ Not sure Disapprove
93.8
Approve
89.1
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in January 2
DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 199 Gampaha 172 Kalutara 86 Kandy 97 Matale 33 Nuwara Eliya 49 Galle 76 Hambantota 39 Matara 58 Anuradhapura 56 Polonnaruwa 27 Kurunegala 112 Puttlam 51 Badulla 54 Monaragala 28 Ratnapura 77 Kegalle 62 Amparai 42 Batticaloa 38 Trincomalee 30 Vavuniya 11 NATIONAL 1397
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in January 20
ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1165 Tamil 87 Muslim 72 Up-country Tamil 72 NATIONAL 1397

Annex
istribution in January 2003
TOTAL 199 172 86 97 33 49 76 39 58 56 27 112 51 54 28 77 62 42 38 30 11 1397
tribution in January 2003
TOTAL 1165 87 72 72 1397
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Copyright © Social Indicator January 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study i confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is e repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conductin a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase o
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the stud the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fie an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a n factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole f this model.
The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative distr Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar distric result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficultie stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district on particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the ‘G 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statistics as t
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maxim DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order households.
In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KRISH of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PC
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error m noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not sup same level of precision.

ence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public rocess over time it is essential that the study be conducted e study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of ame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of g each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture e span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that ocess is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic d influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in
g 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the uniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a n and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each population proportions. However, some districts are over ty but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the
nicity within a district only if the population proportion of that sional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit nique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are mpling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
rk and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a uct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews ule) technique in order to assure the random selection of
er is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, lace at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, sehold using the ‘KRISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member f being selected to the PCI sample.
ubject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the
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Page 48
Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social resea conducts polls on socio-economic and political iss
Operating under the Board of Directors of Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in Septem longstanding vacuum for a permanent, profess polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and political is
Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a me majority of the public can express their opinions o Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social is a means through which public opinion can influ debate.
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alterna 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: c Fax: 370475 Web: h

independent social research organisation, which conomic and political issues.
oard of Directors of the Centre for Policy as established in September 1999, and filled a r a permanent, professional and independent a on social and political issues.
of empowerment, a means by which the silent express their opinions on issues affecting them. t surveys on key social issues, thereby providing public opinion can influence the public policy
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org