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An Opinion Poll On Peace
Peace Confidence Index (P
TOP-LINE RESULTS
© 2003 Social Indicator ● Centre for Po
M

pinion Poll On Peace
ace Confidence Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
Social Indicator
ndicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives
March 2003

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W
hile many studies have been conducted this conflict, none have attempted to public perception over a period of time. The la identified as a significant void by Social Indicator unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The Canadian International Development Agency Governance and Institutional Strengthening Proje be conducted bi-monthly to gauge the impact of political developments on public attitudes toward

W
es have been conducted on various aspects of ne have attempted to capture the changes in period of time. The lack of such a study was void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research olicy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence to fill this lacuna. The study, funded by the Development Agency (CIDA) under the onal Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka, will y to gauge the impact of local and international
public attitudes towards the peace process.

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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a n
public confidence in the peace process using a set of stand
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of q
economic and political developments in order to gauge pub
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide
useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity
opinions of the public are given due importance and incorpora
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire a
interviews amongst a 1,302 respondent sample. The 17 adm
provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern province
control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya an
weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the
surveyed.
Eleven waves of the PCI study were conducted in May, June,
and January, March, May, July, September, November 2002 a
was conducted in March 2003. This publication presents only
2003 survey.
The results of these twelve waves offer us data for a comp
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war
the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

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INTRODUCTION
. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
ess using a set of standardised questions which remain
her is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process,
ne wave to another.
riod of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
f the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective
portance and incorporated into the policy debate.
uctured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
ent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven
nd the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government
rincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar were surveyed. Data is
aphic composition of the districts in which the sample was
conducted in May, June, September and November 2001
ber, November 2002 and January 2003. The latest wave
ublication presents only the top-line results of the March
ffer us data for a comparative study on changing public
from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of
3% margin of error.

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS FEBRU
• As Sri Lanka celebrates its 55th year of independence to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe have called on the p future that would usher in economic, social and cultural February 2003)–(The Island)
• Except for a few black flags being hoisted on lampposts in t Independence Day was celebrated in Jaffna, Vavuniya and Ba (The Island)
• National Bhikku Front conducts a protest campaign in process, particularly to press President Chandrika Kumara Westborg over his disputed role in the acquisition of p February 2003)–(The Island on Feb 7)
• Japanese Peace Ambassador Yashusi Akashi will arrive in Peace secretariat sources say. (6 February 2003)–(Daily Mirr
• LTTE cadres, after setting their vessel alight while Sri Lanka on board, blew themselves up according to Jaffna naval so Island)
• The government has expanded political links with the LTTE stage, political sources say. Malik Samarawickrema, UNP Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe hold talks on a range Tamilselvan in Kilinochchi last week, the sources add. (8 Feb
• The LTTE have begun collecting "taxes" from Govern Wholesale Establishment (CWE), the Building Materials Corporation marketing goods in the Wanni and the Jaffn Times)
• Indian High Commission sources say that a statement mad the French news agency AFP stating that the LTTE boat registration was "irresponsible" and that the Norwegians facts with the Navy commander, the Army spokesman or statement". (8 February 2003)-(The Sunday Times)
• A tussle between the government and the LTTE is taking Library. Jaffna sources say that the LTTE had strongly obj February 14 to be attended by several government m Commissioner of the Jaffna Municipal Council not to have (The Island)
• Police chief T. E. Anandarajah has reported to President Ch to have carried out more than 700 abductions last year February 2003)–(Daily Mirror)
• The LTTE protests vehemently in the Jaffna town of Manipa worn by some LTTE women cadres as part of their unifo more than 100 LTTE cadres gathered in the town and tensio
• Government spokesman Minister G. L. Peiris says that dis would be the focus of the next session of peace talks to Island)
• Chief negotiator Anton Balasingham warns that the LTTE m the government if Manipay type incidents, in which Arm protesting crowd, were repeated. "We condemn this brut public by the Sri Lanka Army in the strongest terms" Mr. B Mirror)
• More than thousand people including women protested in Manipay where the army and police riot squads allegedly worn by LTTE women cadres. (14 February 2003)-(Daily Mir
• The EPDP office at Point Pedro along the Jaffna road cam night, Point Pedro police said. (14 February 2003)-(The Islan
• The LTTE who forced the cancellation of the official openin issued a warning to the TULF - toe their line or face the c to TULF President V. Anandasangaree who was due to de (The Sunday Times)
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DEVELOPMENTS FEBRUARY 2003-APRIL 2003
year of independence today, President Chandrika Kumaratunga and ghe have called on the people to put the past behind and look to a mic, social and cultural development in a peaceful atmosphere. (4
oisted on lampposts in the Thirunaveli area, The 55th Anniversary of in Jaffna, Vavuniya and Batticaloa on a grand scale. (4 February 2003)–
a protest campaign in Colombo against the Norwegian-led peace ident Chandrika Kumaratunga to expel Norwegian Ambassador Jon in the acquisition of powerful radio equipment for the LTTE. (5 7) si Akashi will arrive in Colombo on Monday 10 on a five-day visit, ebruary 2003)–(Daily Mirror) ssel alight while Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) monitors were ording to Jaffna naval sources. (7 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror/The
itical links with the LTTE as the ongoing Oslo-led talks enter a crucial Samarawickrema, UNP chairman and confidante of party leader old talks on a range of issues with LTTE political wing leader , the sources add. (8 February 2003)-(The Island) g "taxes" from Government organisations like the Co-operative the Building Materials Corporation and the Sri Lanka Cement the Wanni and the Jaffna peninsula. (8 February 2003)-(The Sunday
ay that a statement made by SLMM spokesman Teitur Torkelsson to ting that the LTTE boat carrying arms to Sri Lanka had an Indian d that the Norwegians had "not bothered to check or confirm the he Army spokesman or the Indian authorities before making such a e Sunday Times)
and the LTTE is taking place on the reopening of the Jaffna Public LTTE had strongly objected to the reopening ceremony on Friday several government ministers and had instructed the Municipal pal Council not to have the opening ceremony. (10 February 2003)-
eported to President Chandrika Kumaratunga that the LTTE is alleged 00 abductions last year though only about 100 were reported. (11
he Jaffna town of Manipay after soldiers ordered removal of the belts es as part of their uniform. An army riot squad was deployed after ed in the town and tension built up. (12 February 2003)-(The Island) G. L. Peiris says that discussions on fiscal aspects of power sharing ession of peace talks to be held in Japan. (13 February 2003)–(The
m warns that the LTTE might break off the ceasefire agreement with incidents, in which Army, police riot squads allegedly attacked a "We condemn this brutal attack on our cadres and members of the e strongest terms" Mr. Balasingham adds. (13 February 2003)–(Daily
ing women protested in Jaffna today against Wednesday's incidents in ce riot squads allegedly attacked a crowd after a dispute over belts February 2003)-(Daily Mirror) long the Jaffna road came under LTTE attack on Thursday Feb 13th February 2003)-(The Island) tion of the official opening of the Jaffna Library on Friday 14 have now e their line or face the consequences. The warnings have gone down aree who was due to declare open the library. (15 February 2003)-
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The United States says it hoped to provide more aid to Sri La the government and LTTE showing the political will to purs Richard Armitage praised both sides for respecting a near restored some confidence among their people. (16 February 2
• Japan stands unwavering to help Lanka despite the strident re of the Delft incident on February 7 and the recent clash betw which gave rise to concerns over a possible tilt in the Sri La the quick reactions by one side or the other," Japanese envo (Daily Mirror)
• The Opposition expressed serious concern over exclusio committees to be appointed to review land and all other re Trincomalee districts on a priority basis. The government a committees at the fifth session of peace talks at the Norwegi consist of six representatives of the Muslim population and six 2003)-(The Island)
• Peaceful hartals are staged by the LTTE in Jaffna and Batticalo which LTTE female cadres, journalists and civilians were as Batticaloa chief Heikki Hulkkonen says the hartals were bein Valaichchenai and Batticaloa town. (19 February 2003)-(Daily M
• Attempts by LTTE to acquire sophisticated surface-to-air miss January 2003 have come to light. Their efforts have been la Lanka, Mikhail G. Karpov, in a 'Non-Paper' he handed over February 2003)–(The Sunday Times)
• Government peace negotiators were in touch with their LT SLMM officials pulled back the rebels and the Navy from a po sources say the crisis started as seven armed LTTE cadres government controlled Thiriyaya area in Trincomalee. (23 Febr
• In a live television address to the nation to mark the first ann with the LTTE, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe assure army and one police force would prevail as a result of a final (23 February 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Deputy Head Hagrup Hauk as "the most serious incident on land" because both parties w other when the monitors arrived on the scene to defuse the t
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) says it would ask behalf of a soldier and a policeman being held in Tiger jail. (25 F
• The LTTE in a sudden change of heart agrees to release a cor giving any date after the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission expres refusal to release them. SLMM deputy chief Hagrup Hauklan that the two detainees would be released soon. (25 February 2
• Government’s chief peace negotiator Minister G. L. Peiris, an Press Union Biennial Conference at the Trans Asia Hotel, says military training and arms procurement by the LTTE had stopp
• A new political party 'Ashraff Congress’ launched today eveni to break the SLMC monopoly over Muslim politics. The part as its Chairman and was formed in the wake of an interim court suspending the Athaullah faction from holding any po February 2003)–(Daily Mirror)
• Government's Chief peace negotiator and Minister Prof. G Press Union Biennial Conference in Colombo says a pos settlement would not be based on any particular model bu create a home grown one using creativity and taking into a country. (26 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror)
• Defence Secretary Austin Fernando will lead a four-member g issues such as violations and human rights with Batticaloa dis February 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• The World Bank agrees to extend financial assistance fo humanitarian needs in the North. An agreement on World B February 28. The World Bank funds will go towards financing areas, resettlement and the granting of relief to the displaced on March 2)
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rovide more aid to Sri Lanka this year but that it would depend on the political will to pursue peace. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State s for respecting a nearly one-year truce, saying this move had ir people. (16 February 2003)–(Reuters/The Island) a despite the strident reaction of the LTTE leadership in the wake nd the recent clash between the government troops and the LTTE, possible tilt in the Sri Lankan peace process. "One has to discount e other," Japanese envoy Yasushi Akashi says. (16 February 2003)-
concern over exclusion of Sinhala representatives from three ew land and all other related issues in the Ampara, Batticaloa and basis. The government and the LTTE agreed on the formation of ace talks at the Norwegian Embassy in Berlin. The committees will uslim population and six representatives of the LTTE. (18 February
TE in Jaffna and Batticaloa to protest the recent Manipay incident in sts and civilians were assaulted by riot police in Manipay. SLMM ys the hartals were being staged in the Tamil areas of Chenkalady, 9 February 2003)-(Daily Mirror) icated surface-to-air missiles and other military items from Russia in eir efforts have been laid bare by the Russian Ambassador to Sri -Paper' he handed over to the Foreign Ministry in Colombo. (22
e in touch with their LTTE counterparts on February 23 night as and the Navy from a possible confrontation in Trincomalee. Navy en armed LTTE cadres began checking vehicles after entering the
in Trincomalee. (23 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror) ion to mark the first anniversary of signing the ceasefire agreement l Wickremesinghe assured the country that one legal system, one evail as a result of a final political settlement to the peace process.
puty Head Hagrup Haukland says the Kuchchaveli-Thiriyaya dispute " because both parties were prepared to use arms and fire at each the scene to defuse the tension. (24 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror) LMM) says it would ask the Norwegian facilitators to intervene on
ing held in Tiger jail. (25 February 2003)–(The Island) rt agrees to release a corporal and a police constable soon without onitoring Mission expressed deep concern over the LTTE's earlier ty chief Hagrup Haukland says the LTTE had informed the SLMM ased soon. (25 February 2003)–(Daily Mirror)
Minister G. L. Peiris, answering a question at the Commonwealth he Trans Asia Hotel, says that he "cannot say with all sincerity" that nt by the LTTE had stopped. (26 February 2003)–(The Island) ss’ launched today evening by the SLMC dissidents who are hoping uslim politics. The party has Highways Minister A.L.M. Athauallah the wake of an interim injunction issued by the Colombo district ion from holding any position in the SLMC High Command. (26
r and Minister Prof. G.L. Peiris Addressing the Commonwealth n Colombo says a possible federal structure under the peace any particular model but would extract from various models and ativity and taking into account the cultures and traditions of the irror) ill lead a four-member government delegation to discuss important rights with Batticaloa district LTTE leader Karuna in Batticaloa. (27
d financial assistance for rehabilitation activities and emergency agreement on World Bank aid was signed in Kilinochchi on Friday will go towards financing small-scale sub-projects in rural and urban of relief to the displaced. (28 February 2003)-(www.lankapage.com
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The LTTE reportedly warns the TULF not to issue stateme amidst reports of a split in the main Tamil political party and over. A meeting between LTTE political wing leader S. P. Th the pro-LTTE Mavai Senathirajah, the TULF was told that sta consent of the LTTE. This came in the wake of the major co library. (1 March 2003)-(The Sunday Times)
• The people of Jaffna accorded a warm welcome today to Po who visited the area to open 15 rural electricity projects to from an Asian Development Bank loan. (2 March 2003)-(www.
• SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem, NUA leader Feriel Ashraff and appeal to Norway for the inclusion of an independent Muslim government and the LTTE. At a meeting in Colombo with N Muslim leaders ask the facilitators to favourably consider this to a wider scale. (4 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror)
• Under a ceasefire agreement reached in February last year, terrorist suspects, an authoritative source said yesterday, addi of reviewing the remaining cases. (6 March 2003)-(The Island)
• The Court of Appeal issues notice on the Norwegian Communication among others in a writ application asking for to the LTTE. (6 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror)
• The government agrees to have an independent Muslim deleg the LTTE in Japan later this month according to informed sour level meeting at Temple Trees with Prime Minister Ran Moragoda on the government side while SLMC leader Rauff H the Muslim delegation. (7 March 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• The Government has decided to resettle former residents i High Security Zone from today. It was decided at a meeting Ganesh, Wanni Army Commander Major General S. Chand Elilan and other security officials there on Saturday to go ahe (Daily Mirror)
• An LTTE cargo ship suspected to be carrying arms was sunk b battle about 185 nautical miles North-East of Mullaitivu tod three sailors and an officer were injured in the cross fire in int the LTTE casualties were but ten of them were spotted on t carrying war like material" he adds. (10 March 2003)-(The Islan
• A joint opposition alliance today demanded that the governm return to office at the next general elections. Opposition f hundred thousand people who came to the Town Hall grou were not willing to see the country divided. (10 March 2003)–(
• While diplomatic moves were afoot to keep the Norwegian Monday's incident off Mullativu, Defence Minister Tilak Mar saying that the conduct of the LTTE ship confirms that it was of the ceasefire agreement. (11 March 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• The LTTE says it is at the "end of its tether" after the sinking but would remain in the Norwegian-backed peace talks. The Web site www.tamilnet.com, said Monday's sinking of a vesse a hardening of its positions at next week's peace talks in Japan
• A committee appointed by Malwatta Mahanayake most Ven study the feasibility of introducing a federal system to the c Judge S. W. Walpita requests the public to submit representat Island)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga assures Muslim leaders proposals for an independent Muslim delegation at the pea administrative unit for Muslims, SLMC sources say. They say t a meeting with SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem, Noordeen Ma leader Ferial Ashraff at President's House. (13 March 2003)–(D
• The former Secretary General of the Amnesty International, M meeting with Mr. Anton Balasingham and S.P. Thamilselvan o on human rights and the rights of children on wo (www.tamilnet.com)
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LF not to issue statements on its own regarding important issues Tamil political party and the possibility of a pro-LTTE leader taking tical wing leader S. P. Thamilchelvan and a TULF delegation led by TULF was told that statements should not be issued without the he wake of the major controversy over the reopening of the Jaffna Times)
m welcome today to Power and Energy Minister Karu Jayasuriya, al electricity projects to be completed at a cost of Rs. 100 million n. (2 March 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) leader Feriel Ashraff and other Muslim frontliners make a direct f an independent Muslim delegation at the peace talks between the ting in Colombo with Norwegian Ambassador Jon Westborg, the favourably consider this move which would take the peace process aily Mirror)
d in February last year, the government has released over 1000 urce said yesterday, adding that the government was in the process March 2003)-(The Island)
ce on the Norwegian Ambassador and the Minister of Mass rit application asking for an order to quash the radio licence issued Mirror)
dependent Muslim delegation at the next round of peace talks with cording to informed sources. The agreement was reached at a high- ith Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Minister Milinda hile SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem and NUA leader Ferial Ashraff led 3)-(Daily Mirror) settle former residents in 38 selected villages within the Vavuniya as decided at a meeting with the Vavuniya Government Agent K. Major General S. Chandrapala and Vavuniya LTTE political Head e on Saturday to go ahead with the resettlement. (9 March 2003)–
carrying arms was sunk by the Navy after a two and a half hour gun th-East of Mullaitivu today morning. A Naval spokesman said that ed in the cross fire in international waters. "We do not know what them were spotted on the 400 - 500 tonne cargo ship which was 10 March 2003)-(The Island)
anded that the government step down from office and vowed to elections. Opposition front liners told a gathering of about one to the Town Hall grounds that they were not against peace but ivided. (10 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror)
to keep the Norwegian brokered peace process afloat following fence Minister Tilak Marapana has responded to an LTTE letter, ship confirms that it was carrying warlike material in contravention h 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
tether" after the sinking of one of its ships killing 11 crewmembers, backed peace talks. The LTTE, in remarks published on a pro-rebel nday's sinking of a vessel by the Sri Lankan Navy would not lead to eek's peace talks in Japan. (12 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror) a Mahanayake most Venerable Rambukwelle Sri Vipassi thera to federal system to the country headed by retried supreme court lic to submit representations on the matter. (12 March 2003)–(The
ssures Muslim leaders that she and the PA are supporting the m delegation at the peace talks and the setting up of a separate sources say. They say the assurance was given by the President at Hakeem, Noordeen Mashoor of the Athaullah faction and NUA use. (13 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror) Amnesty International, Mr. Ian Martin, visits Kilinochchi and holds a and S.P. Thamilselvan of the LTTE, where the discussions focused s of children on women, sources say. (13 March 2003)-
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The leader of the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) peace tea a seminar for principals of national schools in Colombo Frid (USA) has gifted a coast guard frigate to the Sri Lanka Navy sources said the coast guard frigate "Courageous" is US$ government grant. (14 March 2003)–(www.tamilnet.com)
• An LTTE team leaves the country for the Hakone peace talks
• The peace secretariat of the LTTE launches its official websi the website, www.lttepeacesecretariat.com, will regularly c updates, events and photographs of the peace process, L Kilinochchi say. (16 March 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com)
• Twenty-eight peace organizations have urged the government if obstacles come in the way of the peace drive. Inter memorandum signed by 28 organizations to both parties. (17 M
• Japanese diplomats in Colombo say that March 18th's talks be LTTE in Japan will change the Japanese government's earlier po peace process to becoming more pro active in assisting with d north and east as well as in facilitating the peace process. Ea hand out any development aid until a final peace agreement Tamil tiger rebels." (17 March 2003)-(www.theacademic.org - S
• The sixth session of peace talks commenced today at Hak headed by Hon. Prof. G.L. Peiris and included Hon. Mil Ambassador Bernard Goonetilleke. The LTTE delegation is includes Mr. S.P. Tamilselvan, Mr. Vinayagamurthy Muralithar The two sides discussed the recent incident of a LTTE vessel effective safeguards could be implemented to prevent the re result in the two parties initiating a dialogue to formulate m 2003)-(Web release from the official website of Government Process http://www.peaceinsrilanka.org/insidepages/Pressrelease/WebR
• K. Ragupathy, a Tamil working for army intelligence was shot Lavinia. According to police, Ragupathy was gunned down b down Peiris Avenue at Mount Lavinia together with one of hi two assailants are members of the LTTE's pistol gang. Police two LTTE suspects hail from Pudirippu in Batticaloa. (18 March
• Three sea tigers who were reportedly transporting arms from arrested by the navy early yesterday morning after the suspec a point believed to be 50 to 700 meters deep. The incident o to Chapel Island. (18 March 2003)–(www.lankapage.com)
• Sri Lanka Navy is strongly opposed to any changes, which wo News reports say that the Navy has expressed its concern a the ceasefire agreement, which appears to have the backing 2003)-(www.theacademic.org)
• Sri Lankan negotiators salvaged their formal peace talks at H diplomacy and the prospect of Japanese cash, diplomats and of Peiris shook hands and posed for pictures with his rebel co venue for the talks removing doubts over a possible rebel w merchant ship on March 10, 2003. Talks host Japan's special became the first outsider, other than the Norwegian peace March 2003)-(AFP/Daily Mirror)
• As the sixth session of peace talks began at Hakone, Japan, th look for an alternative to the peace process in the event of government according to LTTE Chief negotiator Anton Ba decide on this alternative course of action with the full bac March 2003)–(Daily Mirror)
• The World Bank has established the North East Recon development and other matters relating to war-ravaged areas started a subcommittee on immediate humanitarian and (www.lankapage.com)
• Seventeen people, including three Sri Lankans, went missing in took place off the eastern coast The navy said all 17 may hav another Chinese boat nearby. (23 March 2003)–(AP- 05:35 EST
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Lanka (GOSL) peace team and Minister Prof. G.L. Peiris addressing chools in Colombo Friday said that the United States of America e to the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN), sources in Colombo said. The SLN "Courageous" is US$ 150 million and was obtained with a US (www.tamilnet.com)
the Hakone peace talks in Japan. (15 March 2003)–(Daily Mirror) unches its official website from its headquarters in the Vanni, and iat.com, will regularly carry the official press releases, current f the peace process, LTTE sources at the peace secretariat in w.tamilnet.com) e urged the government and the LTTE not to go back to war even, the peace drive. Inter Religious Peace Foundation has sent a ions to both parties. (17 March 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) hat March 18th's talks between the Sri Lankan government and the e government's earlier policy from being a mere good wisher of the active in assisting with development aid for Sri Lanka's war ravaged g the peace process. Earlier, the Japanese insisted they would not a final peace agreement is signed between the SL government and -(www.theacademic.org - SLT 9.10 a.m.)
mmenced today at Hakone, Japan. The government delegation is and included Hon. Milinda Moragoda, Hon. Rauf Hakeem and The LTTE delegation is headed by Dr. Anton Balasingham and inayagamurthy Muralitharan (Karuna) and Mrs. Adele Balasingham. cident of a LTTE vessel being sunk off the Mullaitivu coast and how ented to prevent the recurrence of such incidents. It is likely to dialogue to formulate modalities to address the issue. (18 March l website of Government's Secretariat for Coordinating the Peace
pages/Pressrelease/WebRel/March03/Peacetalks6webrel.asp) my intelligence was shot dead today at around 7.30 p.m. at Mount thy was gunned down by two men on a bicycle while he walked together with one of his children. The police and army believe the TTE's pistol gang. Police said according to information received the
u in Batticaloa. (18 March 2003)- (www.theacademic.org) ly transporting arms from Wanni to Sampur in a dinghy boat were morning after the suspects threw the offending cargo overboard at ters deep. The incident occurred off the sea of Trincomalee closer
ww.lankapage.com) o any changes, which would give the LTTE greater freedom at sea. expressed its concern about the LTTE proposed amendments to ars to have the backing of the Norwegian facilitators. (19 March
formal peace talks at Hakone, Japan today thanks to Norwegian se cash, diplomats and officials say. Sri Lanka's chief negotiator G. L. ictures with his rebel counterpart Anton Balasingham outside the over a possible rebel walkout prompted by the sinking of a rebel alks host Japan's special peace envoy to Sri Lanka, Yasushi Akashi n the Norwegian peace brokers, to have a seat at the talks. (19
egan at Hakone, Japan, the LTTE warned it would be compelled to process in the event of a sudden ouster or a collapse of the UNF ief negotiator Anton Balasingham He adds that the LTTE would action with the full backing of the international community. (18
the North East Reconstruction Fund to expedite community ing to war-ravaged areas. The government and the LTTE have also iate humanitarian and rehabilitation needs. (21 March 2003)–
Lankans, went missing in an attack on a Chinese fishing vessel that navy said all 17 may have died, while nine others were rescued by arch 2003)–(AP- 05:35 EST/www.theacademic.org)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Terror has increasingly been used to prevent the people from the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, a report by the University recently. To divert people from the SLMM, the LTTE has to use. It would unexpectedly release a few or spread rumou parents of conscripts. (24 March 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• A delegation of the political affairs committee of the Liberatio of twenty one members left Killinochchi earlier today to begi aspects of federalism, constitutional frameworks and adm countries. (30 March 2003)-(www.lttepeacesecretariat.com/ww
• The rebels attacked a navy vessel carrying around 1,200 secur port, a defence official said on condition of anonymity. T Trincomalee to northern Jaffna. The rebels were hiding amid (31 March 2003)–(ww http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/2003033 ttle_3)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga, meeting the diplomatic months on March 31, assured them that the search for a peac proceed without pause regardless of who is in power. The P the President's House to make a brief presentation on three k the state of the economy. (31 March 2003)-(www.lankapage.co
• The LTTE reiterates that it has no intention to engage in a remarks when they met Power and Energy Minister Karu Batticaloa recently. (31 March 2003)–(www.lankapage.com)
• The LTTE reportedly opens fire on a Navy merchant vesse crewmembers who returned fire destroying an LTTE dingy Mirror)
• A group of de-mining experts from the US’ Quick Reactio Colombo’s US Embassy is now in Sri Lanka to resume de-min experts, headed by Mr. Don Smith on Thursday (27) after a pr respective areas in the north began visiting the affected area 2003)-(http://www.army.lk/News_Reports/2003/march/281.htm
• The LTTE denies involvement in March 31st night's attack unidentified armed groups operating in the Trincomalee ar belonging to the LTTE are operating in the area. Some of the past, some others may have connections with the outfit e Spokesman Teitur Torkelsson says. (1 April 2003)-(Daily Mirro
• The US Embassy today said that the LTTE will not be invited Washington DC on April 14 to discuss ways and means of re Sri Lanka. (2 April 2003)–(The Island)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s spokesman Harim Peiris Mission to be "careful about what it says as it would lose cred
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prevent the people from lodging complaints against the LTTE with eport by the University Teachers' on Human Rights (Jaffna) stated SLMM, the LTTE has to give hope that coming to them is of some a few or spread rumours giving rise to a flutter of hope among 3)-(Daily Mirror)
mmittee of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) consisting chi earlier today to begin its visit to the Nordic countries to study l frameworks and administrative structures employed in those epeacesecretariat.com/www.tamilnet.com) rying around 1,200 security personnel close to eastern Trincomalee ndition of anonymity. The troops were being transported from rebels were hiding amid 15 to 20 fishing boats, a navy official said. 2003)–(www.lankapage.com/ and pl=story&u=/ap/20030331/ap_wo_en_ge/as_gen_sri_lanka_sea_ba
meeting the diplomatic community for the first time in twelve hat the search for a peaceful resolution to the ethnic conflict would who is in power. The President had summoned the diplomats to f presentation on three key issues - peace, political cohabitation and 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) intention to engage in a war again. The LTTE leaders made these Energy Minister Karu Jayasuriya at the Karadhiyanaru camp in –(www.lankapage.com)
a Navy merchant vessel carrying troops, wounding at least two stroying an LTTE dingy, the SLMM said. (31 March 2003)-(Daily
the US’ Quick Reaction De-mining Force (QRDF), assisted by Lanka to resume de-mining activities on the Jaffna peninsula. These Thursday (27) after a preliminary feasible and surveillance study of visiting the affected areas along with their sniffing dogs. (31 March ports/2003/march/281.htm)
arch 31st night's attack on a Navy vessel, raising suspicions of in the Trincomalee area. "It is possible that armed groups not in the area. Some of them may have had links with the LTTE in the ctions with the outfit even now," Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission 1 April 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
LTTE will not be invited for a meeting scheduled to take place in ss ways and means of reaching a consensus on financial support for ) spokesman Harim Peiris today cautioned the Sri Lanka Monitoring ays as it would lose credibility”. (2 April 2003)-(The Island)
03

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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED
A
PRIL
2003
♦ 61.9% express their uncertainty as to when there will b of the Sinhala community, 31% of the Tamil community community are unable to indicate when there will be pe the Up-country Tamil community feel that there will be
♦ When people were asked what they believe was the or
Lanka 36.3% said ‘Communal politics’ while 20.4% said There is a decline in the belief that ‘Discrimination again of the war (34.5% in January 2002 to 20.4% in March 20
♦ A majority (86.7%) continues to believe that peace can
(Ref. Page 15)
♦ A majority (41.8%) believes that the lack of political wil
been a solution to the war for the last 15 odd years. Th Sinhala (43.3%) and Tamil (45%) communities respectiv opinion that there hasn’t been a solution due to ‘Corru from 41.4% in January 2003 to 32.7% in March 2003. (Re
♦ While the perception that the Government is committe
continues to decline (70.2% in July 2002 to 50.1% in Ma the LTTE is committed to find peace has fallen from 29 March 2003. (Ref. Page 17 and Page 18)
♦ 22% of the Sinhala community believe in the involvemen
LTTE while 32.6% of the Tamil community believe in th third party as well. Both the Muslim (40.4%) and Sinhala the widest range of involvement in the negotiations, wh believe that only the Government, Opposition, LTTE, T should be involved in the negotiations. (Ref. Page 21)
♦ Overall approval of Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan p
decrease from 46.3% in November 2002, to 42.3% in Ja 2003. While approval for Norwegian assistance comes community (94.9%), 34.8% of the Sinhala community ex same. (Ref. Page 23)
♦ In March 2003, a majority (43%) of those aware of the
in monitoring the ceasefire believe that such a monitori impact on the success of the ceasefire agreement. This January 2003. A further 26.7% believe that such a moni success of the ceasefire agreement. (Ref. Page 26)
♦ When asked whether they think the SLMM is impartial
agreement, a majority (32.8%) disagrees, an increase fro in January 2003. (Ref. Page 27)

ndex
HE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
10TH A
PRIL
2003
y as to when there will be peace in Sri Lanka. Over 66%
of the Tamil community and over 54% of the Muslim ate when there will be peace in Sri Lanka while 49.8% of
ity feel that there will be peace soon. (Ref. Page 13)
t they believe was the origin/cause(s) of the war in Sri olitics’ while 20.4% said ‘Discrimination against Tamils. that ‘Discrimination against Tamils’ was the origin/cause 002 to 20.4% in March 2003). (Ref. Page 14)
o believe that peace can be achieved through ‘Peace talks’.
t the lack of political will is the reason why there hasn’t the last 15 odd years. This opinion is held mainly by the ) communities respectively. There is a decline in the a solution due to ‘Corrupt military and political leaders’ 32.7% in March 2003. (Ref. Page 16)
Government is committed to find peace through talks July 2002 to 50.1% in March 2003), the perception that peace has fallen from 29% in January 2003 to 19.7% in Page 18)
believe in the involvement of only the Government and l community believe in the involvement of an International uslim (40.4%) and Sinhala (17.6%) communities advocate
t in the negotiations, while 28.9% of the Tamil community ent, Opposition, LTTE, Tamil and other Tamil parties tiations. (Ref. Page 21)
sisting in the Sri Lankan peace process continues to
ber 2002, to 42.3% in January 2003, to 38% in March egian assistance comes mostly from the Tamil he Sinhala community expresses their disapproval of the
) of those aware of the involvement of foreign monitors ieve that such a monitoring mission will have a positive easefire agreement. This is an increase from 37.5% in believe that such a monitoring mission is essential for the
ent. (Ref. Page 26)
k the SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire disagrees, an increase from 15.7% in May 2002 and 27.6% )
03
31ST M
ARCH TO
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ 30.6% express their disagreement when asked whether
monitoring of the ceasefire agreement. There is a decre that the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the cease November 2002 to 24% in March 2003. (Ref. Page 28)
♦ 37.6% are aware that the Government and the LTTE ha committed to finding a solution based on federalism wit 30)
♦ Of those aware that the Government and the LTTE hav committed to finding a solution based on federalism wit approve of this agreement. This approval stems mainly (58.2%) and Up-country Tamil (68.1%) communities. (Re
♦ Television (67.1%) seems to be the most popular mediu
heard of federalism while Newspaper (48.9%) follows c another popular medium. (Ref. Page 32)
♦ Of those who have heard of federalism, 18% of the Sinh federalism to be the devolution of power while 44.6% d the Tamil community and 29% of the Muslim communit in which a small state is governed under a large state.
♦ 19.4% believe that a federal system is the best way of go
33)
♦ 32.1% think that a federal state will lead to secession. T
Sinhala community (34.1%). (Ref. Page 34)
♦ In March 2003, 35.9% agree that Tamils will have more
structure. While a majority (44.5%) disagrees that the S within a federal structure, a majority (37%) cannot say w benefits within such a federal structure. (Ref. Page 35 to
♦ A majority of the Tamil (82.6%), Muslim (41.7%) and Up
communities believe that within a federal structure eve 19.6% of the Sinhala community believe everyone will e
♦ While 19.5% do not agree with any form of federalism some form of federalism. However, 35.8% don’t know
♦ 31.4% say they will agree with a federal solution if it is a Lankans in comparison to 27.5% who will not agree. 27 (Ref. Page 40)
♦ A majority (65.8%) do not think that people are being a
federalism. (Ref. Page 41)

ndex
ent when asked whether the SLMM is effective in its eement. There is a decreasing trend in those who agree s monitoring of the ceasefire agreement from 30.5% in rch 2003. (Ref. Page 28)
rnment and the LTTE have announced that they are
based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka. (Ref. Page
rnment and the LTTE have announced that they are
based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka, 33.3% is approval stems mainly from the Tamil (97%), Muslim
(68.1%) communities. (Ref. Page 31)
the most popular medium through which people have spaper (48.9%) follows close behind. Radio (21.4%) is also f. Page 32)
deralism, 18% of the Sinhala community identify n of power while 44.6% did not have a response. 34.4% of of the Muslim community identify federalism as a system ed under a large state.
tem is the best way of governing this country. (Ref. Page
will lead to secession. This opinion is held mainly by the ef. Page 34)
at Tamils will have more benefits within a federal
.5%) disagrees that the Sinhalese will have more benefits ajority (37%) cannot say whether Muslims will have more tructure. (Ref. Page 35 to Page 37)
), Muslim (41.7%) and Up-country Tamil (69.5%) n a federal structure everyone will equally benefit, while y believe everyone will equally benefit. (Ref. Page 38)
any form of federalism for Sri Lanka, 29.8% agree with ever, 35.8% don’t know or are unsure. (Ref. Page 39)
a federal solution if it is approved by a majority of Sri % who will not agree. 27.1% don’t know or are not sure.
k that people are being adequately informed about
03
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ Of those aware of the 6th round of peace talks held in H
are aware of the Government’s proposal to hold local g North and East and the LTTE’s announcement that it w the holding of these elections. (Ref. Page 42)
♦ 56.1% of the people, who are aware of the Governmen
government elections in the North and East, believe tha (Ref. Page 43)
♦ 13.3% of Sri Lankans are aware that the Government an international human rights advisor, Mr. Ian Martin, to su human rights into the peace process at the 7th session o are aware of this request, 63.5% believe that it will have process (Ref. Page 44 and Page 45)
♦ 54.1% of the Sri Lankans are satisfied with the progress
♦ In March 2003, 26.2% of the people perceive that the in
Muslims of the East are not being adequately represent perception is held mostly by the Muslim (54.9%) and Sin national trend shows an increase from 22.9% in January
♦ An overwhelming majority of the Muslim community (8
be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace talks and Up-country Tamil (44.1%) are in agreement with this vi
♦ The cost of living continues to be the most important is people in March 2003. For 18.9% of the people, it is the it is unemployment. (Ref. Page 49)
♦ While 34.7% say that the peace process has had no effe 28.7% say that it has had a negative effect and 26.3% say (Ref. Page 50)
♦ 71.3% are aware of the talks between the SLFP and the
awareness is largely amongst the Sinhala community (77 potential alliance, a majority (31.1%) believes that it will peace process. While 29.4% of the Sinhala Community impact 29.8% are undecided. (Ref. Page 51 and Page 52)
♦ An overwhelming majority (81.1%) is not aware that Jap Mr. Yasushi Akashi participated in the 6th round of peac those aware of his participation, 58.1% believe that it w peace process. (Ref. Page 53 and Page 54)
♦ A majority (77.4%) is aware of the recent incidents at s the LTTE. Of those aware of these incidents, 69.5% are have a negative impact on the peace process. This is a v (73.3%), Up-country Tamil (66%) and Muslim (50.5%) co Page 59)

ndex
d of peace talks held in Hakone, Japan. A further 44.8% of s proposal to hold local government elections in the
announcement that it will favourably consider supporting (Ref. Page 42)
ware of the Government’s proposal to hold local orth and East, believe that it will have a positive impact.
that the Government and the LTTE have asked their isor, Mr. Ian Martin, to submit a proposal integrating
ocess at the 7th session of the peace talks. Of those who % believe that it will have a positive impact on the peace e 45)
tisfied with the progress of the peace talks. (Ref. Page 46)
ople perceive that the interests and the concerns of the ing adequately represented at the peace talks. This
e Muslim (54.9%) and Sinhala (25.8%) communities. This se from 22.9% in January 2003. (Ref. Page 47)
he Muslim community (89.3%) believe that there should n to the peace talks and a majority of the Tamil (49%) and in agreement with this view. (Ref. Page 48)
be the most important issue for a majority (49.3%) of the 9% of the people, it is the ethnic conflict, while 15.5% say
49)
e process has had no effect on their living conditions, ative effect and 26.3% say that it has had a positive effect.
etween the SLFP and the JVP in March 2003. This he Sinhala community (77.4%). Of those aware of this 1.1%) believes that it will have a negative impact on the the Sinhala Community believe it will have a negative Ref. Page 51 and Page 52)
.1%) is not aware that Japan’s special envoy to Sri Lanka,
in the 6th round of peace talks held in Hakone, Japan. Of n, 58.1% believe that it will have a positive impact on the nd Page 54)
the recent incidents at sea between the Government and hese incidents, 69.5% are of the opinion that they would peace process. This is a view held largely by the Sinhala %) and Muslim (50.5%) communities. (Ref. Page 58 and
03
Page 9

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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ 79.2% of the people feel that Ceasefire Agreement nee
expanded. (Ref. Page 60)
♦ 96.5% of Sri Lankans say they are aware of the war agai forces and an overwhelming 82% say they disapprove o equally high amongst the Sinhala (80.3%) and Tamil (83. the Muslim and 92.4% of the Up-country Tamil commu Iraq. (Ref. Page 55 and Page 56)
♦ Of those who are aware of the war against Iraq, a majo
a negative impact on the Sri Lankan peace process. (Ref.
For further information please co
Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Pe
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternativ
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: cpapoll@diamon Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpa

ndex
easefire Agreement needs to be strengthened and
re aware of the war against Iraq by the US and British % say they disapprove of it. This disapproval is almost la (80.3%) and Tamil (83.7%) communities, with 98.7% of p-country Tamil community disapproving of the war on 6)
war against Iraq, a majority (46.2%) says that it will have nkan peace process. (Ref. Page 57)
her information please contact:
ma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator ntre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 5 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
03
Page 10

Page 13
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX
(P
M
AY
2001 – M
ARCH
2003
T
HE
P
ERCEPTION OF
W
AR AND
P
EACE
What does ‘peace’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
70
60
63
54
49.2
46.1
21.6
May '01 September
'01
52.7
54.5
53.9
50.6 50.5 50
10.4
14.9
41.4 40
37.5
36.4
3 %
0
36.7
34.7
35.9
35 34.7
30
24.7
35.7
32
29.3 29
34.7
25.9
Ethnic Breakdown
33.2
31.2
25.4 20
10
15.3 16.2
11.2
18.3
9.8
15.5
14.9
January '02 May '02 September
'02
17 Up-country Tamil
14.8
43
0 20 40 60 80
%
70.5 15.7
15.7 Muslim
53.8
14
44.4
82.1 16.9
23.7 Tamil
39.6
45.5 26.5
Sinhala

I C
ONFIDENCE
NDEX
(PCI)
M
Y
2001 – M
ARCH
2003
P
ACE
ou? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
53.9
50.6 50.5
44.9
End of war
41.4
Ethnic Harmony
31
Feeling Safe
Freedom
c Breakdown
82.1
47.2
47.8
34.7
36.4
35.8 42.7
39
31.2
34.7
35
34.1
25.4
17.7
14.9 15.5
14.9
ay '02 September
'02
16.7
12.6
January '03
70.5
53.8
60 80 100
Freedom Feeling safe Ethnic Harmony End of war
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What does ‘war’ mean to you? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
70
60
54.4
60.2
58.9
57.8
51.3
50.8 50
40
39.6
43.1
42.8
%
30
27.1
30.3
24.5
23.9
25.2 26.4
26.2
27.4
26 22.9 20
15
20.3 17.1
12.3
10.9
21.5 9.8
8.7
3.5
June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '
Ethnic Breakdown
2.1
18.2
21.2
22.9
22.3
15.8 12.9
11.4
0
21.5
16.7
16.2
16.2
10
16.8
12.4
16.4 16.6
0.3
7.8
8.6
3.5
2.7
3.3
9.9
9.4
13.2
2.7 3.5
8.6
Up-country Tamil
0.9
6.9
19.3
20.5
57
Muslim
18.4
6.6 7.1
33
41.8
51.4
Tamil
8.7
0.9
22
24.7
27.6
7
9.8
10.8
23
29.8
55.8 Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
4 60.2
58.9
55.9
Means to achieving peace
Fighting for rights
Disharmony amongst races
Hindrance to economic growth/ Rise in cost of living Death / Destruction
8.7
2.2
Terrorism
thnic Breakdown
51.4
55.8
57.8
56.2
26.2
27.4
22.3
3.5
27.7
22.9
6
26
30.1
.2
16.2
25.7
23.6 16.2
15.8
9.4
15.6
11.1
9.9
2.7
13.2
8.7
10.1
3.5
4.6
July '02 November '02 March '03
57
50 60 70 80 %
Terrorism
41.8
Death / Destruction
Hindrance to economic growth/ Rise in cost of living
72.8
Disharmony amongst races
Fighting for rights
Means to achieving peace
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
When will there be peace in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
80
21.1
2
May '01 September
'01
71.3 70
63.8
60
53.9
54.5
57.9
57.2
60
58.4
50
%
40
30
20
18.9
0
Ethnic Breakdown
11.8
24.8
22.1
10
11
13.4
10.2 9.9 10.6 7.5
7.2
6.7 4.9
6.8
9
January '02
May '02 Sep
29 1.6 Up-country Tamil
1.7
3.7
13.3
6 11.2 1.3
2.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
%
49.8
5.9
54.4 5.2 Muslim
3.1
7.8 4.1
25.3
31 5.7 Tamil
0
5.3
1.5
56.5
Sinhala

Sri Lanka?
National Trend
57.2
60
58.4
58.6
57.6
60.1
61.9
21.1
24.8
17.3
10
May '02 September
'02
Soon
Never
4.8
22.1
21
17.7
Don't know
.9
6.8
9
7.6 10.4
8.2
hnic Breakdown
56.5
January '03
49.8
54.4
66.8
50 60 70 80
Don't know Never Not in my life time Within the next ten years Within the next five years Soon
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
In your opinion what was the origin/cause(s) of the wa Answers]
National Trend
45
41.6
41.5
40
40.3
37.8
39.3
33.8
34.5
33.4
35 35
30
24.7
29.2
33.1
26
28
29.2
25.6
%
25
24.3 20
17.9
14.8
14.2 15
11.7
13.2
11
12.4
11.7
10
9.2 7.8
7.1
9.9
9
6.6
9.1
4.9
8.7
9
8.2
8.7
5
8.4
8.1
6.9
6.8
0
2.6
1.4
3.6
4 4.2
4
3.9 2.9 3.6 June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 Novemb
Ethnic Breakdown
37.5
2
6
11.5 Up-country Tamil
1.2
30.9
25.2
28.7
6.1
13.3
Muslim
4.9
33.4
0.4
3
7
11.4
13.5
15.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 %
32.8
51.8
0
0
Tamil
10.1
28.9
60
Sinhala

origin/cause(s) of the war in Sri Lanka? [Multiple
National Trend
.3
37.8
39.3
36.3
24.4
20.4
2.9
Communal politics
Discrimination against Tamils
Discrimination against Sinhalese
Sinhala chauvinism
Tamil chauvinism
Terrorism
hnic Breakdown
37.5
35.1
36.2
28
29.2
25.6
22.5
2.4
14.2
11.7
15.2
9
8.2
8.7
8.3
3.6
14.3
12.3 10.4
8.1
6.9
6.8 2
7
8
9.8
.9
2.9
3.3
July '02 November '02 March '03
Terrorism 4
51.8
Tamil chauvinism
Sinhala chauvinism
60.4
Discrimination against Sinhalese
Discrimination against Tamils
Communal politics
40 50 60 70
Page 14

Page 17
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
S
OLUTIONS TO THE
C
ONFLICT
How do you think we can end the war and have
Answers]
National Breakdown
100
90
85
87.2
84.4
86
68.6
59.1
10.1
0
May '01 September
'01
80.7 80
71.3
71.9
70
60
%
50
40
30
18
24.4
7.2
0.8
0.8
Ethnic Breakdown
12.1
20
19.9 20
10
9.9
7.6
7 1.3 0.8 1
0.9
1.1 1
January '02
May '02 Septemb
'02
Up-country Tamil
1
98
1.6
1.2
0.5
%
98.5 Muslim
0
2.1
97.4 Tamil
1.2
84.4 Sinhala
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka? [Multiple
National Breakdown
87.2
84.4
86
86.7
6.5
10.4
May '02 September
'02
83.7
83.7
Government defeating the LTTE
LTTE defeating the Government
Peace talks
7 10.1
7.2
0.8 0.8 1 ic Breakdown
84.4
5.5 1.1
0.3
0.6
January '03
98
98.5
100 120
Peace talks
LTTE defeating the 97.4
Government
Government defeating the LTTE
Page 15

Page 18
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think there hasn’t been a solution to the years? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
50
46.2
37.3
36.7 34.1
May '01 September
'01
44.2 44 45
40.5
7.3
4.8
39.1
39.4 40
31.8
8.6
9.3
37.1
35
33.4
38.5
30
30.1
30.3
30.9
34.8
35
30.6
30.2
33
%
25
25.8
24.5 20
22.2
21.2
20.7
15
18.5
18.6 18.2
10
10.6 10.5 5
0
6.5 6.5
7
0
January
May '02 September '02
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
25.1 12 Up-country Tamil
1.1 0.6
0
17
19.3 15
34.2
0 10 20 30 40
%
30.3
5
37.4
38.9 22.7 Muslim
3.7
10.1
26.3 12.7
18.3
19.6 Tamil
2.1
45 25.1
Sinhala
43.3

’t been a solution to the war for the last 15 odd
National Trend
44.2 44
44.2
.4
40.5
Corrupt military and political leaders
32.7
No political will
LTTE does not want peace
War is necessary for people in power .5
hnic Breakdown
34.2
41.8
41.4
35
33.1 30.6
30.2
.7
19.5
19.1 18.6 18.2
11.3
13.1
10.6 10.5
7.5 7
y '02 September
'02
January '03
.1
30.3
37.4
38.9
43.3
30 40 50
Don't know War is necessary for people in power LTTE does not want peace
6.3
The strength of the LTTE No political will Corrupt military and political leaders
45 .1
Page 16

Page 19
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
C
ONFIDENCE
I think the Government is committed to find peace th
National Trend
80
69.8
70.2
70
63 61.8 58 60
50.2
53
50
43.8 44 %
40
31.4
30
23.8
22.5
24.5
20
11.9
9.8
9.1
12
15
10
0
May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 Septem
Ethnic Breakdown
7.6 Up-country Tamil
9.6
8.5 Muslim
2.1
10.2 Tamil
10.4
21.2
46.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
6
Sinhala
20.5

mmitted to find peace through talks.
National Trend
69.8
70.2
63.7
59.4
56.7
50.1
12
19.1
9.1
Agree
Disagree
.8
ic Breakdown
46.5
15.1
18.6
20.9
May '02 September '02 January '03
69.9
50 60 70 80
Disagree
68.4
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
66.6
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through t
National Trend
80
68.5 70
63.5
60
50.6
53.2
50
45.7
%
40
42.7
32.9
39.5
3
30
20
15.8
17.3
12.9
0
May '01 September '01 January '02 May '02 Septem
Ethnic Breakdown
11.3
22.2
27.3
25.7
27.5
2
9.8 10
8.2 Up-country Tamil
8.1
53.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
69.2
10.8 Muslim
8.3
19.3
40.2
3.5 Tamil
9.2
73.
Sinhala

to find peace through talks.
National Trend
45.7
39.5
38.2
39.8 38.9
45.7
.3
25.7
19.7
May '02 September '02 January '03
Agree
.9
Disagree
27.5
28.3
29.3 29
Breakdown
69.2
73.1
53.3
50 60 70 80
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the Government goes in for ta
National Trend
60
50
44.6
48.8
45.3
40
39
35.8
39.5
41.7
42.1
38.3
3
%
37.5
33.4
27
35.5
33.2
32.4
32.5
30
28.9
29.9
2
29.6
18.6
24.5
19.9 19.8
24.1
28.9
20.1
15.5
10.3
June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02
Ethnic Breakdown
37.4
24.1
2 20
18
12.2
8.4
17.2 19.7
16.2
17.6
12.4
11.9
10.6
8.8 7.1 1 14.5
9.7
8
10 10
0
7.1
9.5
7.4
4.5
4.2 3.5 4.3
3.2 3.9 4.6
Up-country Tamil
6
9.8
20.6
23.3
4.2
14.8
28.9 8.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
52.1
4.3
28.2
Muslim
19
23.2
43.9 27.1
32.1
1.6
Tamil
0
16.9 15.9
42.6 40.3
Sinhala

overnment goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
45.3
42.1
Commitment to peace 38.3
38
Economic hardship
International pressure 24.6
20.1
Realisation that this war cannot be won
10.9
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
Breakdown
.3
38.3 32.4
32.5
29.9
28.6
28.9
24.1
27.2
24.1
12.4
10
10.3
10.3 8.8
7.1 14.1
12.9
10.6
4.3
3.2 3.9 6.6
5.2
ly '02 November '02 March '03
52.1
42.6
Lack of manpower
To fool the people 43.9
Realisation that this war cannot be won International pressure
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
50 60
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for talks? [M
T
HE
National Trend
50
44.9 45
40
34.6 35
31.3 31.5
30.8
30 27.7 %
25
29.1
18.7
27.3
22.4
27.9
25.1
24.5
24.7
23.4
27.4
23.9 18.3
20.4
19
20
15.2
13.9 12.3
10.3
June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 Nove
Ethnic Breakdown
7.2
22.5 20
16.7
15.4
14.9
19.1
16.9
18.2
15
13.8
14.6
15.5
8.9
18.1
12.4
13.1
0
15.9
13.9
18.6
14.6
14.9
10
12.5
12.8
14.4
1
5
8.5
6.6
3.7
6.5
Up-country Tamil
11.1
13.7
21.2
14.1
33.8
17.5
26.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
55.2
3
45.7
Muslim
33.8
14.7
45
19.5
20.4
2.8
Tamil
0
9
15.6
21.1
43.6
Sinhala
P
EACE
P
ROCESS

TE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
12.6
Commitment to peace
31.5
30.8
Economic hardship
24.7
27.4
International pressure
Realisation that this war cannot be won
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
ic Breakdown
43.6
30.8 27.7
28.7
25.6
14.5
28.5
23.4
23.9
22.5
25
20
16.1 16.1
16.5
13.1
20.5 19
18.2 18.6
18.1
14.6 13.9
16.7
18.5 15.7
14.6
14.4
12.4
10.3
12.8
13.2
July '02 November '02 March '03
55.2
45
Lack of manpower 45.7
.8
To fool the people
Realisation that this war cannot be won International pressure
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
.8
40 50 60
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Who should be involved in negotiations?
I
NTERNATIONAL
National Trend
40
36.7
35
32.1
33.9
30
25.1
31.3
25.8
27
25
23
21.6
21.7 21.9
16.4
12.4
13.5
14 15.5
12.1 16
2.1 2.1 2.5 May '01 September
'01
19.9 %
20
19 16.2
15.9
15.1
14.2 15.5
19.1
15
11
16.6
10
6.6
5
4.3 4
4.8
2.4
1.9 1 0
January '02 May '02 September
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
0
6.9
Up-country Tamil
13.5
4.2
9.5
9.3
20.2
22
0.6
11.2
Muslim
0
1.1
2.4
13.1
29.3
0
5.4
Tamil
2.4
12.2
0.3
11.6
28.9
32.6
1.8
9.6
Sinhala
3.3
6.6
9
8.9
17.6
22
0 T
HIRD
5 10 P
ARTY
15 F
ACILITATION
20 %
25 30 35

gotiations?
National Trend
9.8
1.5
F
ILITATION
Govt. and LTTE only
25.8
27
21.7
19.9
21.9
19.1
20.3 18.3
18.6
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
12.1
11
16.6
16.4
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim 6.6 9.5
parties and a third party
2.5 2.4
1.9 1.4 1
No peace talks
y '02 September
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
28.9
17.2
12.9
January '03
2
2
Don't know 2
No peace talks
29.3
40.4
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil parties and a third party
32.6
Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt. and LTTE only
25 30 35 40 45
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What is your opinion of the need for an internationa solve the North East war in Sri Lanka?
N
ORWEGIAN
National Trend
40
38
35.8 35
32.6
32.5 32.5
30.9
31.9
30.2 30
28.9
25
24.2
20.9
29
28.8
26.1
29
21.8
%
20
16.8
16
16.5
14.2
10 9.6
9.6
10.2
September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 J
Ethnic Breakdown
22
16.7
15
13.1
13.2
14.2
10. 10
11.6
0
11.3
9.9
11.3
9.2
10.3
5
5.4 5.4
3.2
2.1
0.7
0.9
1.4
4.6
1.4
20.3
3
0.3
10.3 Up-country Tamil
0
4.1
9.6
1.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
56.1
Muslim
2.7 3.2
4.5
7.6
19.9
4.9
18.1
34.3
59.7
1.9
2.7 Tamil
3.7 3.9
Sinhala
F
ACILITATION

need for an international third party’s involvement to ri Lanka?
National Trend
30.9
31.9
30.2
30.6 29.8
Is essential
28.8
29
29 29.3
26.1
Will add a positive impact
Will have no impact 16.7
17.9
13.2
14.2
16.2
Will add a negative impact
0.2
11.6
10.5
9.5
5.4
5.7
10.2
Is not essential
2.1
1.4
4.6
1.4
Don't know/Not sure
1.6
September '02 January '03
hnic Breakdown
87.4
4.3 1.4
56.1
60 80 100
Don't know/Not sure Is not essential Will add a negative impact 59.7
Will have no impact Will add a positive impact Is essential
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process
National Trend
60
53.8
50.7 50
42.4
46.3
42.7 40
37
%
30
20.5 20
15.5
23.1
24.5
22.4
23
18
18
19.4
22.8
21.8
13.6 12.8 9.1
7.8 8.8
0
January '02 May '02 September '02
Ethnic Breakdown
31.6
22.1 17.9
10
26.8
Up-country Tamil
3.1
5.8
64.3
43.4
Muslim
1.8
9.2
45.6
2.4
Tamil
0.8
1.8
20.7
Sinhala
12.8
34.8
0 20 40 %
60 80

nkan peace process
National Trend
42.4
46.3
42.3
38
12.8
11.1
8.8
Approve
28.2
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
22.1
Don't know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
94.9
29.8 22.4
23
21.8
21
18.7
10.2
September '02 January '03
64.3
60 80 100
Don't know/Not sure
.6
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Norway continuing to facilitate talks.
National Trend
50
44.1 45
40
41.3
38.2
35
30
29.4
%
25
22.6
23.3
19.7 20
21.8
21.8
15
13.6
10.7
0
September '02 November '02 January '03
Ethnic Breakdown
32.2
11.9
10
5
24.4
Up-country Tamil
4.1
5.5
2.4
20.8
31.5
0 20 40 60 80
%
66
15.2
41.8
Muslim
2.9
8.4
46.9
Tamil
1.2 1.5
Sinhala

te talks.
National Trend
38.2
38.7
11.9
13.2
Approve 29.4
26.9
Neither approve nor disapprove
19.7
20.9
Disapprove
Don't know/Not sure
January '03 March '03
ic Breakdown
66
94.9
60 80 100
Don't know/Not sure
6.9
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NDIA
’
S
I
NVOLVEMENT
What is your opinion of the need for India’s involve process?
National Trend
40
35
31.7
33.8
35.5
30
27
32.7
25
26.1
26.6 20.8 %
20
16.2
16.4
15.6
16.2
1.2
1.9 1.3
1.7
May '02 September '02 January '03
Ethnic Breakdown
11.5
19.2 17.4 15
14.9
16.8
13.1
12.5
13.5
14.3
10
5
3.5
5.9
8.4
2.7
9.2
7.1
0
11.1
Up-country Tamil
0
1.8
4.9
14.5
Muslim
1.1
1.7
9.2
25.3
2.6
6.3
9.5
11.9
16.7
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
50
Tamil
5.7
6.8
10.1 10.5
19.4
41.6
47.5
Sinhala

need for India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace
National Trend
35.5
35.9
32.7
Is essential
Will add a positive impact
19.2
Will have no impact 17.4
Will add a negative 14.3
impact
Is not essential
2.7
Don't know/Not sure
1.7
thnic Breakdown
47.5
18.6 14.9
16.8 16.2
January '03
15.8
13
9.2
7.1
5.6 3
65.5
41.6
40 50 60 70
%
Don't know/Not sure
Is not essential
50.7
Will add a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will add a positive impact
Is essential
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
R
ECENT
P
OLITICAL
D
EVELO
S
RI
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
If you are aware of the involvement of foreign ceasefire, what is your opinion of the need for such ceasefire agreement to succeed?
National Trend
50
45
40
37.9
39.4
39.3
40.5
41.5
37.5
35
31.2
33.6
30
26.7 26.3
29.7
%
25
25.3
20
15
10.3 10
7.3
4.6
5.6 5
4.2 1.9 0
1.4
6.7
8.4
5.2 3.8
9.6
5.8
5.6
4.5
7.5
1.9
4.1
1.7 0.6 4.2
4.1 1.7 March '02 July '02 November '02 M
Ethnic Breakdown
0
2.9 Up-country Tamil
0.5
2.8
7.1
67.1
0
3.1
Muslim
3
8.5
15.8
56.7
Tamil
0.4 0
3.2 1.9 2.8
90.2
Sinhala
0.4
4.2
5.7
7
18.5
49.4
0 20 40 %
60 80 100

P T
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
nvolvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the on of the need for such a monitoring mission for the ed?
tional Trend
26.7
Is essential 41.5
37.5
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Is not essential
4.1
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
c Breakdown
90.2
43
29.7
25.3
9.6 5.6
4.5
7.5
0.6 4.2
1.7
6.9
5.2 3.7
0.4 ovember '02 March '03
67.1
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
Is not essential
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
Is essential
80 100
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impar ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
40
35.5
35
29 30
33.1
31.7
33.2
30.3
25
28.9
26.8
27.4
2
%
20
15.7
22.5
23.6
21.4
22.8
18
14.6
0
May '02 September '02 January
Ethnic Breakdown
22.2
19.2 15
18 17.8
10
5
38.9
Up-country Tamil
2
6.7
51.3
34.8
Muslim
8.6
23.4
33.2
19.3
Tamil
3.5
7
20.1
Sinhala
20.8
36.9
0 10 20 30 40 %
50 60

toring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the
National Trend
33.2
30.3
27
21.3
18
32.8
27.4
27.6
21.4
22.8
January '03
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
19.2
18.9
Disagree
Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
38.9
51.3
34.8
69
36.9
40 %
50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
.2
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effect ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
35
31.4
30.5 30
28.7
28 26.1
26 25
21.3
24.8
24.3
23.8 25
%
20
19.3
20.3
21.4
19
15
10
5
0
July '02 September '02 November '02 Janua
Ethnic Breakdown
19.5
38.9
Up-country Tamil
4.7
10.5
21
34.4
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
44.8
25.2
38.7
Muslim
7.2
18.9
35.2
23.7
Tamil
4
9
Sinhala

toring Mission is effective in its monitoring of the
National Trend
30.5
30.6
28
24.3
26.6
24 25.7
22.8
21.4
22.4
19.7
vember '02 January '03 March '03
Agree
23.8
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
38.9
62.2
40 50 60 70
%
44.8
38.7
34.4
Don't know/Not sure
35.2
Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
LTTE
I think the LTTE is the sole representative of the Tam
National Trend
70
60
56.8
55
58.9 54.8 54.5
50
%
40
30
17.5
18 16.8
10.4
8.1
May '02 September '02 January
Ethnic Breakdown
12.2
22.4
20
18.7
9.4
11.6
9
0
9.3
12.9
11 10
10.5 10
17.8
Up-country Tamil
11
23.5
43.4
46.8
Muslim
9.4
22.4
19.2
9.2
Tamil
5.5 4.9
10.3
62 12.6
0 20 40 60 80
%
79
Sinhala

presentative of the Tamil community.
National Trend
54.4
22.4
18.7
18.4
10
58.9 55
11.6
9
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Don't know
nic Breakdown
79.3
62
11
12.5 11.9
January '03
6.8
60 80 100
Don't know
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
EDERAL
S
OLUTION
Are you aware that the Government and the LTTE h committed to finding a solution based on federalism w
National Breakdown
37.6
62.4
Ethnic Breakdown
National
37.6
40.6
62.4
Up-country Tamil
16.9
Muslim
16
Tamil
32.9
67.1
Sinhala
59.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

ernment and the LTTE have announced that they are
n based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka?
kdown
37.6
Yes No
hnic Breakdown
.6
62.4
83.1
84
No Yes
67.1
59.4
50 60 70 80 90
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that the Government and the LTTE committed to finding a solution based on federalism please tell me if you approve or disapprove of this agr
National Breakdown
30.6
33.3
Approve Disappr Don’t kn
36.1
Ethnic Breakdown
30.6 National
36.1 33.3
24.3 Up-country Tamil
7.6
32.7
39.4 27.9
0 20 40 60 80
%
68.1
20.7 Muslim
20.9
58.2
1 Tamil
1.9
Sinhala

vernment and the LTTE have announced that they are tion based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka, or disapprove of this agreement?
kdown
3
Approve Disapprove Don’t know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
68.1
97
60 80 100 120
Don’t know/Not 58.2
sure
Disapprove
Approve
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you have heard of federalism, through which med [Multiple Answers]
National Breakdown
80
70
67.1
60
50
48.9
%
40
30
20
12.9
14
10
3.4
0
Newspaper Television Political
College/ meeting
University
Ethnic Breakdown
48.2
Wor mo
14.6
21.4
National
3.4
12.9
20.5
11.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 6
%
48.9
Up-country Tamil
2.5
4.7
27.2
43.1
5
47.9
14.4
3.3
56
11.1
24.2
30.8
Muslim
13.5
22
10.8
12.7 Tamil
0
40.1
52.4
Sinhala

ism, through which medium did you hear about this?
al Breakdown
12.9
21.4
College/ University
14.6
Word of mouth
Radio
Ethnic Breakdown
48.2
67.1
40.1
48.9
58.1
43.1
56.6
70.2
40 50 60 70 80
Radio Word of mouth College/ University Political meeting
58.9
Television Newspaper
47.9
52.4
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I believe a federal system is the best way of governing
National Breakdown
28.3
19.4
Agree Neither agre Disagree 18.8
Don't know/
33.5
Ethnic Breakdown
13.2
28.3 National
18.8
33.5
19.4
8.6 Up-country Tamil
8.2 6.9
29.9
36.2 20.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
74
25 Muslim
6.7
10.1
53
3.5 Tamil
2.4
11.5
8
Sinhala

e best way of governing this country.
akdown
18.8
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
Breakdown
82.7 74
Don't know/ Not sure
Disagree
53
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
0 60 70 80 90
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think a federal state will lead to a secession.
National Breakdown
26.6
32.1
24.8
16.5 Ethnic Breakdown
26.6
National
16.5
24.8
32.1
26 22 17.6
34.1
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
39.4
Up-country Tamil
13.9
31.4
15.3
41.7
Muslim
4.4
32.4
16.3
11.1
Tamil
3.4
13.6
Sinhala

to a secession.
l Breakdown
32.1
6.5
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
32.1
39.4 1.4
41.7
68.4
34.1
40 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know/ Not sure
32.4
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal structure Tamils will have more bene
National Breakdown
32
35.9
18.5
13.6 Ethnic Breakdown
32
National
13.6
18.5
32.5 18.4
35.2
0 10 20 30 40
%
35.9
13.4
35.9
Up-country Tamil
10.3
22.9
26.8
37.1
Muslim
4.9
10.8
7.1
Tamil
15.8
27.5
Sinhala

mils will have more benefits.
nal Breakdown
35.9
13.6
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
32
35.2
30 40 50 60
%
35.9
2.9
27.5
32.5
35.9
26.8
Don't know/ Not sure 37.1
Disagree
42
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree 49.6
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal structure Sinhalese will have more be
National Breakdown
7.1
35.4
13
44.5
Ethnic Breakdown
4.5
35.4
National
13 7.1
Up-country Tamil
15.7
21.7
21.6
Muslim
11.6
20.2
22
11.5
Tamil
22.4
28.4
35.6
12.4
0 10 20 30
%
3
Sinhala

halese will have more benefits.
l Breakdown
13
.5
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
thnic Breakdown
35.4
37.7
30 40 50
%
44.5
35.6
41.1 .7
.6
Don't know/ Not sure
41
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree Agree
28.4 2.4
46.8
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal structure Muslims will have more ben
National Breakdown
11.9
37
16.7
Agre Neit Disa Don
34.4
Ethnic Breakdown
National
16.7 11.9
Up-country Tamil
19.8
22.9 14.8
Muslim
9.7
28.4
11.8
16.8
Tamil
18
28.4
Sinhala
16.6 10.4
0 10 20 30
%

slims will have more benefits.
reakdown
16.7
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
36.8
6
37
20 30 40 50
%
34.4 7
36.4 35.4
42.4 19.8
22.9
44.8 28.4
8
28.4 8
Don't know/ Not sure
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal structure everyone will equally benef
National Breakdown
30.4
24.7
Agree Neither Disagre
15.8
Don't kn
29.1
Ethnic Breakdown
19.6
30.4
National
15.8
29.1
24.7
11.2
Up-country Tamil
4.8
9.6
23.2
Muslim
7.1
22.9
41.7
7.8
Tamil
2
4
30.3
Sinhala
17
31.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

eryone will equally benefit.
akdown
5.8
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
69.5
41.7
82.6
40 50 60 70 80 90
%
Don't know/ Not sure
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I do not agree with any form of federal concept for Sr
National Breakdown
19.5
35.8
14.9
29.8
Ethnic Breakdown
20.2
35.8
National
14.9
29.8
19.5
34.3 27.8 15.8
0 10 20 30 40
%
37.6
Up-country Tamil
5
37.7
10.9
33.5
Muslim
4.2
38.6
16.5
11
Tamil
9.1
12.5
Sinhala

of federal concept for Sri Lanka.
l Breakdown
19.5
14.9
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
27.8
35.8 29.8
37.6
34.3
30 40 50 60 70
%
37.7
33.5
38.6
66.5
Don't know/ Not sure
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I will agree with a federal solution if it is approved by a
National Breakdown
27.1
31.4
27.5
14
Ethnic Breakdown
27.1
National
14
27.5
31.4
16.4
Up-country Tamil
3.5
14.2
28.1
Muslim
10.5
17.5
24.1
28.3 14.6
29.5
0 10 20 30 40
%
33.6
9.6
Tamil
4.6
32.4
Sinhala

tion if it is approved by a majority of Sri Lankans.
l Breakdown
31.4
14
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
27.1
27.5
24.1
29.5
30 40 50 60
%
31.4
28.3
56.9
Don't know/ Not sure 28.1
Disagree
33.6
Neither agree nor disagree
32.4
Agree
49.6
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think people are being adequately informed about fed
National Breakdown
20.9
8
5.3
65.8
Ethnic Breakdown
7
20.9
National
5.3
8
3
Up-country Tamil
12.4 10.2
25.6
Muslim
2.4
53
3
16.7
Tamil
12.3
20.5
3.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
41.5 25.7
Sinhala

uately informed about federalism.
l Breakdown
5.3
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
65.8
41.5
68.9
40 50 60 70 80
%
69.6
53.4
Don't know/ Not sure
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
P
EACE
T
ALKS
If you are aware of the 6th round of peace ta Government’s proposal to hold local government ele and the LTTE’s announcement that it will favoura holding of these elections?
National Breakdown
44.8
42.9
12.3
Ethnic Breakdown
12.3 National
42.9
12.3
44.3
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
44.8
25.3 Up-country Tamil
27.1
43.2
47.6
4.8 Muslim
34.2
8.4 Tamil
5 41
Sinhala

6 round of peace talks, are you aware of the old local government elections in the North and East ent that it will favourably consider supporting the
l Breakdown
44.8
Yes No Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
42.9
44.3
40 50 60 70
%
44.8
43.2
47.6
34.2
Don't know/ Not sure 61
No
50.6 41
Yes
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the Government’s proposal to ho in the North and East and the LTTE’s announcement supporting it, what in your opinion will be the i proposal to hold local government elections in the N process?
National Breakdown
56.1
16.1
15.9
Will Will 11.9
Will Don
Ethnic Breakdown
15.9
National
11.9
16.1
19.9
Up-country Tamil
5.6
15.3
27.5
Muslim
13.3
19.4
39.8
7.9
Tamil
8
23.3
14.5
Sinhala
12.4
15.3
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

rnment’s proposal to hold local government elections LTTE’s announcement that it will favourably consider opinion will be the impact of the Government’s nment elections in the North and East, on the peace
reakdown
56.1
Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/ Not sure
thnic Breakdown
56.1
56.7
40 50 60 70
%
59.2
Don't know/ Not sure
39.8
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact 60.9
Will have a positive impact
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware that the Government and the LTTE human rights adviser, Mr. Ian Martin, to submit a pro into the peace process, at the 7th Session of the peace
National Breakdown
13.3
86.7
Ethnic Breakdown
National
13.3
Up-country Tamil
30
70
Muslim
32.2
67.8
Tamil
15.4
Sinhala
11.7
0 20 40 60 80
%

ernment and the LTTE have asked their international Martin, to submit a proposal integrating human rights 7 Session of the peace talks?
reakdown
13.3
Yes No
thnic Breakdown
86.7
70
67.8
87.8
60 80 100
No Yes
84.6
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that the Government and the LTTE submit a proposal integrating human rights into th Session of the peace talks, what in your opinion will peace process?
National Breakdown
7.8
63.5 Will have a po 23.5
Will have no i Will have a ne Don't know/ N
5.2
Ethnic Breakdown
23.5 National
5.2
7.8
25 6.3
64
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
63
4.5
16.2 Up-country Tamil
0
17.9
25.6 Muslim
4.8
17.8
45.4
5.8 Tamil
0
18.3
Sinhala

vernment and the LTTE have asked Mr. Ian Martin, to g human rights into the peace process, at the 7th hat in your opinion will be the impact of this on the
kdown
63.5
Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/ Not sure
thnic Breakdown
63.5
66
Don't know/ Not sure
Will have a negative impact 45.4
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact 75.8
64.1
0 50 60 70 80
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please state your level of satisfaction over the progres
National Trend
50
46.3 45
43.3
40
35
30 %
25
20
18.7
18.9
15
10.8 10
8
9
9.5
5
0
Highly satisfied Somewhat
satisfied
Ethnic Breakdow
8
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
0 Up-country Tamil
6.8
4.4
5.2
8.3
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
49
21
31.7
11.4 4.7 Muslim
2.9
10.3
8.8
10.9
40.8
49 20.9
1.2
Tamil
0
0.8
9.2
22.6
Sinhala

sfaction over the progress of the peace talks.
National Trend
.9
January '03 March '03
9
9.5
6.6
7.6 7.9
r nor ied
Ethnic Breakdown
31.7
40.8
10.7
Somewhat dissatisfied
Highly dissatisfied
Don't know/ Not sure
49.6
40 50 60 70
%
Don't know/ Not sure
49.4
Highly dissatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 65.8
Somewhat satisfied
Highly satisfied
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
T
HE
M
USLIM
C
OMMUNITY
Do you think that the interests and concerns of the adequately represented in the peace talks?
National Trend
40
35
36.5
35.6
30
29.6 29.4 25 %
20
22.9
18.9 15
10
5
0
November '02 January '03 March
Ethnic Breakdown
23.7 Up-country Tamil
17.2
20.7 Muslim
18.3
33.7
34.7 25.8
27.5
0 10 20 30 40
%
45. Tamil
15.2
Sinhala

sts and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being
peace talks?
National Trend
34.1
28.5 26.2
'03 March '03
Yes No Don't know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
33.7
48.9
8
54.9
34.7
Don't know/Not sure
45.5
No
Yes
7.5
0 40 50 60
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Do you think there should be a separate Muslim deleg
National Breakdown
40
35
31.5
30
29.5
25
%
20
15
10
5
0
Yes No
Ethnic Breakdown
28.7 National
31.5 29.5
20.9 Up-country Tamil
24.9
44.1
7.3 Muslim
0.8
15.2 Tamil
31.6
49
31.5 Sinhala
33.8 23.4
0 20 40 60 80
%

a separate Muslim delegation in the peace talks?
al Breakdown
31.5
28.7
No Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
.1
49
60 80 100
%
Don't know/Not sure No 89.3
Yes
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
L
IVING
C
ONDITIONS
Please rank the following issues according to your ord
National Trend
60
50
48.2
49.3
40
%
30
20
18.8
18.9
16.5 15.6
10
3.5
6.1
2.4
2.7
2.1 1.3
2.1
0.4 0.5
0 0
c i n h t e
t c i l f
t n e m y
g n i v i l
n o i t a c
m s i r o
y t i r u c e h T
n o c
o l p
f o t s
u d E
r r e T
e S m e n U
o C
n o i t p u r r o C
l a t n e m n o r i v n E
Ethnic Breakdown
0
2.1
Up-country Tamil
0
20.4 0.7
3.5
0.3
2.2
11.3
5.8
27.2
0 0 Muslim
0.8
2.1
1.6 1.7
3.1 4
15.3
28.9
40
0
1.1
6.4
Tamil
0
1.2
2.1
2.7
5.2
13
30.8
37.4
Sinhala
0.2 0.3
0.4 0.4
1.4 1.7
2.8
6.7
12.2
0 10 20 30 40
%

es according to your order of importance
National Trend
2.1 2.1
0.5
January '03 March '03
1.3
0.4 0.4
2.5
1.2
1
0.3
1.7 2.1
y t i r u c e S
Ethnic Breakdown
30.8
n o i t p u r r
l a t n e m o C
n o r i v
n o i t u l l o p
r e d r o d n a n E
w a L
y c a r c o m e D
s t h g i r n a m u H
27.2
41.9
51.9
30 40 50 60
%
Human rights Democracy Law and order Environmental pollution 28.9
40.3
Corruption Security Terrorism Education Cost of living 37.4
Unemployment The ethnic conflict
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
In your opinion what kind of impact has the peace conditions?
National Trend
40
35
33.9
34.7
30
26.3 24.1
Has had a positive impact
29
28.7
25
%
20
15
10
5
0
Has had no impact Has had a nega
impact
Ethnic Breakdown
7.3
Up-country Tamil
3.5
10
20.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
%
45.7
33.4
42.3
17.4
Muslim
8.9
39.1 33.3
0.3
Tamil
3.2
15.4
Sinhala
35.2

of impact has the peace process had on your living
National Trend
29
28.7
8.9
9.6
ct Has had a negative
impact
January '03 March '03
Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
45.7 42.3
9.1
81.1
50 60 70 80 90
Don't know/Not sure
Has had a negative impact
Has had no impact
Has had a positive impact
Page 50

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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
O
PPOSITION
’
S
R
OLE
Are you aware of talks between the SLFP and the JV their two parties?
National Trend
80
71.3 70
62.3
60
50 %
40
37.7
30
28.
20
10
0
Yes No
Ethnic Breakdown
41
57.4 Up-country Tamil
41.6
22.5
0 20 40 60
%
59.7 Muslim
40.3
59 Tamil
Sinhala

een the SLFP and the JVP about an alliance between
onal Trend
37.7
28.5
No
January '03 March '03
thnic Breakdown
57.4
41.6
59.7
40.3
59
77.4
40 60 80 100
%
No Yes
41
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of talks between the SLFP and the J their two parties, what in your opinion will be the process?
National Trend
40
35
31.1
30
25
24.1
19.8
17.5
15.4
0
Will have a positive impact
21.1
%
20
15
10
5
Will have no impact Will have a negative
impact
Ethnic Breakdown
18.9
D
31.6
Up-country Tamil
10.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
5
2.8
18
Muslim
29.5
44
8.4
15.3
Tamil
36.7
45.7
2.3
29.8
Sinhala
20.6
29.4
%

ween the SLFP and the JVP about an alliance between our opinion will be the impact of this on the peace
ational Trend
24.1
36.2
31.1
29
Will have a negative impact
January '03 March '03
thnic Breakdown
36.7
Don’t know/Not sure
31.6
53.1
44 .5
.8 .4
40 50 60
Don’t know/Not sure Will have a negative impact Will have no impact 45.7
Will have a positive impact
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
J
APAN
’
S
R
OLE
Are you aware that Japan’s special peace envoy to S participated in the 6th round of peace talks held in Hak
National Breakdown
18.9
81.1
Ethnic Breakdown
National
18.9
Up-country Tamil
33.7
Muslim
30.7
Tamil
28
Sinhala
16.6
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

special peace envoy to Sri Lanka, Mr. Yasushi Akashi,
f peace talks held in Hakone, Japan?
l Breakdown
18.9
Yes No
Ethnic Breakdown
.7
81.1
40 50 60 70 80 90
%
64.7
33.7
69.3
83
No Yes
72
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you aware that Japan’s special peace envoy to Sr participated in the 6th round of peace talks held in opinion will be the impact of this on the peace proces
I
RAQ
National Breakdown
26.9
1.9
58.1 13.1
Ethnic Breakdown
26.9 National
1.9
13.1
29.3 2.2
58.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
58.1
10.1
20.5 Up-country Tamil
0.4
9.4
29.3 Muslim
2.7
30.9
33.5
9.8 Tamil
0
23.6
Sinhala

ecial peace envoy to Sri Lanka, Mr. Yasushi Akashi, of peace talks held in Hakone, Japan, what in your this on the peace process?
l Breakdown
58.1
Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
58.1
58.3
0 50 60 70 80
%
69.7
Don't know/Not sure
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
66.6
Will have a positive impact
Page 54

Page 57
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware of the war against Iraq by the US and B
National Breakdown
3.5
96.5
Ethnic Breakdown
National
3.5
Up-country Tamil
13.6
8
Muslim
2.2
Tamil
2.3
Sinhala
3
0 20 40 60 80
%

inst Iraq by the US and British forces?
akdown
Yes No
hnic Breakdown
96.5
86.4
97.8
97.7
96.9
60 80 100 120
No Yes
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the war against Iraq, do you a action taken by USA and Britain?
National Breakdown
11.2
6.8
82
Ethnic Breakdown
11.2 National
82 6.8
2.9 Up-country Tamil
92. 4.1
1.3 Muslim
0
11.2 Tamil
83.7 4.8
12.2 Sinhala
80.3 7.5
0 20 40 60 80 1
%

r against Iraq, do you approve or disapprove of the ain?
reakdown
Approve Disapprove Don’t know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
82
92.4
98.7
Don’t know/ Not sure Disapprove Approve
83.7
80.3
0 80 100 120
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What in your opinion will be the impact of this on the
R
ECENT
National Breakdown
3.3 26.3
24.2
W W W D
46.2
Ethnic Breakdown
3.8
26.3
National
24.2
46.2
3.3
11.4
Up-country Tamil
23.5
61.8
0.2
27.8
Muslim
4
6
0.1
22.9
Tamil
37.7 36.8 2.5
26.7
Sinhala
24.5
44.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
% I
NCIDENTS

the impact of this on the Sri Lankan peace process?
Breakdown
24.2
Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
46.2
61.8
68.1
Don't know/Not sure Will have a negative impact Will have no impact Will have a positive impact .7 8
44.6
50 60 70 80
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware of the recent incidents at sea betwe LTTE?
National Breakdown
22.6
77.4
Ethnic Breakdown
National
22.6
Up-country Tamil
52.9
46.7
49.2
19.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
50.8 Muslim
5.2 Tamil
Sinhala

t incidents at sea between the Government and the
eakdown
77.4
Yes No
thnic Breakdown
77.4
52.9
50.8
79.8
50 60 70 80 90 100
%
46.7
49.2
No Yes
94.8
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the recent incidents at sea betw LTTE, what in your opinion will be the impact of this o
National Breakdown
14.7
1.7
14.1
69.5
Ethnic Breakdown
1.8
14.7
National
14.1 1.7
10.5
Up-country Tamil
19.5
66
2.5
27.7
Muslim
19.3
50.5
2.5
21.9
Tamil
37.8 40 0.3
13.2
Sinhala
11.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
%

nt incidents at sea between the Government and the
ill be the impact of this on the peace process?
l Breakdown
14.1
Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
69.5
66
0
73.3
50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
50.5
Will have a negative impact Will have no impact Will have a positive impact
.8
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Do you feel that the Ceasefire Agreement nee expanded?
National Breakdown
5.7 15.1
79.2
Ethnic Breakdown
5.7 National
15.1
4 Up-country Tamil
11.3
0 Muslim
26.9
2.1 Tamil
4.6
6.2 Sinhala
15.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

asefire Agreement needs to be strengthened and
Breakdown
79.2
Yes No No response
Ethnic Breakdown
79.2
78
50 60 70 80 90 100
%
84.7
No response
73.1
No Yes
93.3
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in March 20
DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 186 Gampaha 160 Kalutara 80 Kandy 92 Matale 31 Nuwara Eliya 46 Galle 71 Hambantota 36 Matara 54 Anuradhapura 52 Polonnaruwa 25 Kurunegala 104 Puttlam 48 Badulla 50 Monaragala 25 Ratnapura 72 Kegalle 58 Amparai 39 Batticaloa 35 Trincomalee 28 Vavuniya 11 NATIONAL 1302
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in March 200
ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1085 Tamil 82 Muslim 67 Up-country Tamil 68 NATIONAL 1302

Annex
istribution in March 2003
TOTAL 186 160 80 92 31 46 71 36 54 52 25 104 48 50 25 72 58 39 35 28 11 1302
tribution in March 2003
TOTAL 1085 82 67 68 1302
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study i confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is e repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conductin a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase o
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the stud the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fie an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a n factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole f this model.
The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative distr Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar distric result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficultie stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district on particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the ‘G 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statistics as t
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maxim DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order households.
In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KRISH of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PC
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error m noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not sup same level of precision.

ence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public rocess over time it is essential that the study be conducted e study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of ame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of g each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture e span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that ocess is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic d influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in
g 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the uniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a n and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each population proportions. However, some districts are over ty but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the
nicity within a district only if the population proportion of that sional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit nique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are mpling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
rk and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a uct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews ule) technique in order to assure the random selection of
er is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, lace at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, sehold using the ‘KRISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member f being selected to the PCI sample.
ubject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the
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Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social resea conducts polls on socio-economic and political iss
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Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a me majority of the public can express their opinions o Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social is a means through which public opinion can influ debate.
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independent social research organisation, which conomic and political issues.
oard of Directors of the Centre for Policy as established in September 1999, and filled a r a permanent, professional and independent a on social and political issues.
of empowerment, a means by which the silent express their opinions on issues affecting them. t surveys on key social issues, thereby providing public opinion can influence the public policy
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org