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An Opinion Poll On Peace
Peace Confidence Index (P
TOP-LINE RESULTS
© 2003 Social Indicator ● Centre for Po

pinion Poll On Peace
ace Confidence Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
Social Indicator
ndicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives
July 2003

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W
hile many studies have been conducted this conflict, none have attempted to public perception over a period of time. The la identified as a significant void by Social Indicator unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The stu monthly to gauge the impact of local and developments on public attitudes towards the pea
This report was prepared with funds provided by:
The Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) un Governance and Institutional Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri L
The U.S. Agency for International Development under the O Transition Initiatives (OTI), Sri Lanka.

W
es have been conducted on various aspects of ne have attempted to capture the changes in period of time. The lack of such a study was void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research olicy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence o fill this lacuna. The study will be conducted bi- impact of local and international political ttitudes towards the peace process.
rovided by:
ent Agency (CIDA) under the ning Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka.
evelopment under the Office of

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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
E
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
(PCI) T
OP
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX -L
INE
R
ESULTS
PERCEPTIONS OF WAR AND PEACE
SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT
CONFIDENCE
THE PEACE PROCESS
I
NTERNATIONAL
F
ACILITATION
N
ORWEGIAN
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
I
NDIA
’
S
I
NVOLVEMENT
• R
ECENT
P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION
F
EDERAL
S
OLUTION
T
HE
M
USLIM
C
OMMUNITY
F
OREIGN
A
ID
R
ECENT
K
ILLINGS
INTERIM ADMINISTRATION
• A
NNEX

ex
01 I
TERNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
02 E
06 I
DEX
(PCI) 10
ND PEACE 10
NFLICT 14
16
20
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
21
ION
22
24
D
VELOPMENTS
25
MISSION 25
30
Y
31
34
36
N 42

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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a n
public confidence in the peace process using a set of stand
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of q
economic and political developments in order to gauge pub
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide
useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity
opinions of the public are given due importance and incorpora
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire a
interviews amongst a 1,392 respondent sample. The 17 adm
provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern province
control of the Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya an
weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the
surveyed.
Thirteen waves of the PCI study were conducted in
November 2001 and January, March, May, July, Sept
January, March and May 2003. The latest wave was
publication presents only the top-line results of the July 2003 s
The results of these fourteen waves offer us data for a com
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war
the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

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INTRODUCTION
. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
ess using a set of standardised questions which remain
her is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process,
ne wave to another.
riod of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
f the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective
portance and incorporated into the policy debate.
uctured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
ent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven
nd the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government
rincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar were surveyed. Data is
aphic composition of the districts in which the sample was
y were conducted in May, June, September and
arch, May, July, September, November 2002 and
The latest wave was conducted in July 2003. This
results of the July 2003 survey.
offer us data for a comparative study on changing public
from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of
3% margin of error.

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
• Sri Lanka's prime minister launched a major effort to revive was willing to alter the constitution to meet their demand f at the start of an aid conference in Tokyo, Ranil Wickrem end the 20-year conflict had been reached, his government to Sri Lanka's constitution. (9 June 2003)-(Reuters/http://in.new
• The JVP issues a statement denying media reports that it Tokyo where Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had (www.lankapage.com)
• Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen believe within a month. His delegation is currently in Japan to pa following a few days of talks in Colombo. (10 June 2003)-(ww
• A suspected LTTE rebel was hospitalized after taking cyanid in Wellawatta on June 10. Police Deputy Inspector General the suspects. (10 June 2003)-(AP / www.theacademic.org)
• Donor countries and agencies participating in the To Development of Sri Lanka, concluded here today, pledged 4.5 billion and assured the profound support of the internat in Sri Lanka. (10 June 2003)-(Daily News on June 11)
• The US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Armitage on J donor conference refused to remove the ban on the LTTE to the negotiation table immediately to prove their sincerity
• The LTTE today reiterated that it would resume peace n forward the draft framework of the interim administrative the Prime Minister's offer for a provincial administrative st the Prime Minister's statement does not offer anything n structure' is the new name given to the Apex Council propo us as extremely limited and inadequate," the LTTE said in a in Killinochchi. (11 June 2003)-(Daily News)
• The LTTE today dismissed both the resolution and decl "unacceptable" and reiterated its stance in sticking to its for administration as a pre-condition to resume talks with t declaration formulated at the donor conference had no bi deliberations and hence deemed it totally "unacceptable." (1
• The LTTE is demanding the release of one of their cadres i constables who were abducted by the LTTE on June 10 Mission Spokeswoman Agnes Bragadottir said today. The L Army Brigade Headquarters in Batticoloa that the two Po 2003)-(The Island)
• PA media spokesperson Dr. Sarath Amunugama says Sri La donor conference and adds that this would further increa country. (11 June 2003)-(http://www.colombopage.com/#June11
• The LTTE again clearly says that they are not ready for any firm decision is made on an interim administration for th Killinochchi this evening, the LTTE said they do not want to on this matter. The LTTE has also rejected the offer, made at the Japan aid conference, of a 'provisional administrative said it was a restatement of his previous position (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/June11113155RA.html)
• The LTTE today says they are ready to release two police LTTE cadres taken into custody recently. Two LTTE pisto two days ago. Military Spokesperson Brig. Sanath Karuna LTTE Eastern Commander Karuna. (12 June 2003)-(www.lan
• The Sihala Urumaya, today repeated the charge that only were aid and that the rest was loans. (12 June 2003)-(www.la
• A top anti-LTTE leader, T. Subathiran (45), was assassinate this morning by an “unidentified sniper”, allegedly (http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/2003/06/15/stories/20030
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NAL DEVELOPMENTS JUNE 2003-JULY 2003
a major effort to revive peace talks with LTTE on June 9, saying he to meet their demand for a regional interim administration. Speaking n Tokyo, Ranil Wickremesinghe said that once a political solution to reached, his government would call a referendum to endorse changes
003)-(Reuters/http://in.news.yahoo.com/030609/137/24zgw.html) g media reports that it was involved in the incident at a temple in nil Wickremesinghe had to face a hostile crowd. (9 June 2003)-
r Vidar Helgesen believes a peace agreement is within reach, possibly currently in Japan to participate in the Sri Lanka donor conference ombo. (10 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) talized after taking cyanide when police arrested him and a companion eputy Inspector General Bodhi Liyanage said a pistol was seized from ww.theacademic.org) participating in the Tokyo Conference on Reconstruction and ded here today, pledged financial assistance amounting to US dollars d support of the international community for establishing lasting peace
ews on June 11) e Richard Armitage on June 10 in his opening remarks at the Tokyo ve the ban on the LTTE in the near future. He urged them to return y to prove their sincerity. (11 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)
would resume peace negotiations only after the Government puts e interim administrative framework for the North-East and rejected ovincial administrative structure. "We are disappointed to note that oes not offer anything new. The so-called provincial administrative the Apex Council proposed by him for development and rejected by uate," the LTTE said in a statement issued by its political headquarters y News) the resolution and declaration of the Tokyo donor conference as ance in sticking to its former proposal for the setting up of an interim to resume talks with the government. The LTTE noted that the or conference had no binding effect on it as it is not a party to the totally "unacceptable." (11 June 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
of one of their cadres in remand custody, to release the two Police the LTTE on June 10 evening in Batticoloa, Sri Lanka Monitoring adottir said today. The LTTE today confirmed to the SLMM and the tticoloa that the two Police constables are in their custody. (11 June
Amunugama says Sri Lanka received not aid but loans at the Tokyo his would further increase the debt burdens on the people of this .colombopage.com/#June1115140UN)
ey are not ready for any talks with the Sri Lanka government until a im administration for the North and East. Issuing a statement from said they do not want to negotiate with any international organisation rejected the offer, made by the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe rovisional administrative structure' within the laws of the land. They his previous position with new terminology. (11 June 2003)- /June11113155RA.html) dy to release two police constables if the government releases two ecently. Two LTTE pistol gang members were arrested in Colombo on Brig. Sanath Karunaratne says one member is the secretary to . (12 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) ed the charge that only 2% of the funds pledged this week in Tokyo
s. (12 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) iran (45), was assassinated in the heart of northern Jaffna town early ed sniper”, allegedly an LTTE sharpshooter. (14 June 2003)- /2003/06/15/stories/2003061505110100.htm)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The World Bank announced today that it approved a US$125 for Sri Lanka which builds upon the country's poverty reductio Vision and Strategy for Accelerated Development". (18 June 20
• The JVP is demanding the top post in the proposed coalitio create a new position with wide powers to accommodate P 2003)-(Sunday Times)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga has ordered the security armed forces commanders informed her that the LTTE wa cover of the ongoing peace process. (22 June 2003)-(www.lanka
• President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga addressin convention today said that she was impressed with the progr JVP. (22 June 2003)-(Daily News)
• "I ordered the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) to destroy the LTTE safeguard the country and its people," declared President M fourteenth national convention of the Sri Lanka Freedom P opposition People's Alliance (PA) Saturday evening at Nittam (www.lankapage.com / www.tamilnet.com)
• Head of the Terrorists Investigation Division at Dehiwala Pol killed by a suspected LTTE cadre this morning while the Po Police station premises. Colombo South DIG K .P. Pathirana shots at close range has fled the scene using a three-wheeler. Island/www.theacademic.org)
• Shanmugasundaram Ragupathy alias Tilakan, an LTTE activist him including launching an attack on the Elara navy camp in Ka High Court Judge of Colombo Sarath Ambepitiya. (25 June 200
• SLMM said today that there was no evidence to indicate tha when their ship sank in a clash with the Sri Lankan navy. Dep team Hagrup Haukland said the missing LTTE crewmen ``cou (26 June 2003)-(AP /www.theacademic.org)
• The government spokesman G.L. Peiris said today it will send in hopes of resuming peace talks that stalled in April 2003 wh brokered dialogue. (26 June 2003)-(AP /www.theacademic.org)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga warns that the LTTE are government would be ill-equipped to deal with an attack, her /www.theacademic.org)
• A high-level Japanese delegation today met LTTE's political about the outcome of the recently concluded Tokyo multilate to immediately resume peace talks with the Government. (30
• Police, aided by army soldiers, raided several residential a detained 306 people during an anti-crime sweep, police sourc minority Tamils, sparking criticism of harassment. The arrest Web site that reports on Tamil affairs. (30 June 2003)-(AP/www
• The Sri Lankan economy has reported a turnaround for 2003, quarter of 2003 over the 0.5 percent growth for the corresp (Daily News)
• The SLMM yesterday ordered the LTTE to immediately government-controlled area in Kinniya in violation of the c Mirror)
• The high court sentenced five people to death, including two in October 2000 at the Bindunuwewa detention camp tha former child soldiers. (Reuters/http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/200
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) was pressing t Tharanikulam in Kinniya in accordance with their ruling, as th the location, SLMM Deputy Chief Hagrup Haukland said. (2 Jul
• Government authorities today tightened the security for Sri L to Police sources. (7 July 2003)-(http://www.colombopage.com/#J
• Following a visit by the head of the Sri Lanka Monitoring commanders of the three armed forces and the Inspector Gen this morning to investigate the Kinniya crisis, where the Tig controlled area. (7 July 2003)-(http://www.colombopage.com/arch
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at it approved a US$125 million Poverty Reduction Support Credit ountry's poverty reduction strategy outlined in "Regaining Sri Lanka:
evelopment". (18 June 2003)-(Daily Mirror) in the proposed coalition with the SLFP, prompting the SLFP to ers to accommodate President Chandrika Kumaratunga. (21 June
as ordered the security forces to be on the alert after the three her that the LTTE was strengthening its war efforts under the 22 June 2003)-(www.lankapage.com) Kumaratunga addressing the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) mpressed with the progress of the talks between the SLFP and the
) to destroy the LTTE ship that carried weapons on June 14 to e," declared President Ms Chandrika Kumaratunga addressing the he Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), the main constituent of the urday evening at Nittambuwa in western province. (23 June 2003)-
) Division at Dehiwala Police, Inspector Sunil Thabrew was shot and is morning while the Police officer was inside his quarters at the uth DIG K .P. Pathirana said the LTTE suspect after firing several e using a three-wheeler. (23 June 2003)-(Daily Mirror/Daily News/The
ilakan, an LTTE activist who was found guilty of all charges against the Elara navy camp in Karainagar, was today sentenced to death by
Ambepitiya. (25 June 2003)-(Daily News) evidence to indicate that the navy had abducted 12 LTTE cadres the Sri Lankan navy. Deputy head of the Norwegian-led monitoring ing LTTE crewmen ``could either be dead or could have escaped.''
rg) ris said today it will send a set of proposals to LTTE in two weeks stalled in April 2003 when the LTTE pulled out of the Norwegian- /www.theacademic.org) arns that the LTTE are planning to revert to warfare and that the deal with an attack, her spokesman said today. (26 June 2003)-(AP
ay met LTTE's political wing head S P Thamilselvan to brief him ncluded Tokyo multilateral donor conference and urged the rebels ith the Government. (30 June 2003)-(UNI/Hinduonnet/Daily Mirror) ed several residential areas in Colombo over the weekend and rime sweep, police sources said today. Among those detained were harassment. The arrest of Tamils sparked criticism from TamilNet s. (30 June 2003)-(AP/www.theacademic.org) d a turnaround for 2003, recording a 5.5 percent growth in the first t growth for the corresponding period a year ago. (30 June 2003)-
LTTE to immediately evacuate a camp it had set up in the iya in violation of the ceasefire agreement. (30 June 2003)-(Daily
to death, including two police officers, for their role in a massacre wa detention camp that housed suspected LTTE members and soldiers. (1 July 2003)- s?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030702/wl_nm/crime_srilanka_dc_3) (SLMM) was pressing the LTTE today to remove the camp in e with their ruling, as the LTTE have not evacuated the camp from grup Haukland said. (2 July 2003)-(Daily News) ned the security for Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission officials according /www.colombopage.com/#July762814UN)
Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Tryggve Tellefsen to Kinniya, the es and the Inspector General of Police were rushed to Trincomalee iya crisis, where the Tigers are forcibly occupying a government- ww.colombopage.com/archive/July760444UN.html)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Buddhist monks of the National Bhikkhu Front (NBF) took protesting against "the SLMM’s biased role in monitoring immediate exit of the Nordic peace monitors from the cou Mission) is an organisation biased towards the LTTE, " the G Chandraloka Thero said. (8 July 2003)-(The Island on July 9)
• A train without passengers but with only police and army Batticoloa today, while the LTTE was being accused of disrupt rail sleepers from the track between Vantarumulai and Co Mirror)
• In a surprise move by the government Defence Minister Tilak intelligence operatives and said that there was a clear link bet (8 July 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• Former Norwegian Ambassador and Special Envoy Jon W Thamilselvan in Killinochchi in a bid of shuttle diplomacy be revive the currently stalled peace talks. (8 July 2003)-(Reuters/D
• LTTE political leader S.P. Thamilselvan, at a meeting with Killinochchi, says that his organisation is ready to face war demands it. (12 July 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com/www.lankapage.co
• The Government is now holding discussions with Muslim re proposals for an Interim Administration aimed at breaking th top Government official says. (13 July 2003)-(Daily News)
• The LTTE on three occasions refused to allow SLMM of government-controlled Welioya and not allowing inspectio ceasefire agreement according to Deputy head of the S (www.colombopage.com)
• SLMM said LTTE were not complying fully with the terms o and they would demand an explanation. (14 July 2003)–(www.m
• The Canadian Government which has been taking serious n continued violation of human rights would impose a ban on th to stop its activities, diplomatic sources said. (14 July 2003)-(D
• The Head of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) Tryggv a three-day visit in Vanni to obtain the LTTE view over the se by the SLMM to both Government and the LTTE. (14 July 200
• The "Sinhala Sanvidhanaya," a Sinhala nationalist movement Trincomalee to urge the de-merging of the North an (www.tamilnet.com)
• The Government today presented its new set of propo administrative structure to the LTTE. The proposals were co and former Norwegian Ambassador Jon Westborg. (17 July 20
• The UNF Government has offered the LTTE a Provinci membership and full powers to make policy. Other nominees Alliance and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress. This is the ma forwarded to the LTTE this week. It was taken to the Wanni Westborg. The Government says, it sets out a "framework arrangement which will enable the LTTE to participate sig related to administration, and rebuilding of the war dam Northern and Eastern Provinces." (20 July 2003)-(Sunday Times
• A high profile consultative committee set up by the LTTE detailed study of the Government's latest proposals for an East, an LTTE spokesman said. (20 July 2003)-(Daily News on Ju
• Defence Secretary Austin Fernando today came out strongly over the Wan Ela camp (at Kinniya) issue, stating that the LT the wisdom of the SLMM. (20 July 2003)-(Daily News on July 21
• The Batticoloa and Ampara districts came to a virtual s apparently backed by the LTTE launched a protest campaign d who were arrested in Batticoloa last week. (22 July 2003)-(Dai
• The Scandinavian truce monitors said today that they are in naval monitors in a bid to prevent sea clashes between strengthening sea monitoring and increasing the number of se Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) deputy chief Hagruph Hauk
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ikkhu Front (NBF) took to the streets of the Colombo today to sed role in monitoring the peace process and demanded the monitors from the country." "The SLMM (Sri Lanka Monitoring wards the LTTE, " the General Secretary of the NBF, Kaluwelgala )-(The Island on July 9) h only police and army security returned to Valaichchenai from being accused of disrupting train service to the region by removing n Vantarumulai and Commandurai on July 7. (8 July 2003)-(Daily
t Defence Minister Tilak Marapana today condemned the killing of here was a clear link between majority of the killings and the LTTE.
d Special Envoy Jon Westborg today met LTTE political chief of shuttle diplomacy between the Government and the LTTE to s. (8 July 2003)-(Reuters/Daily News) lvan, at a meeting with the Sri Lanka Tamil Media Alliance in n is ready to face war if a change in the Sri Lankan government et.com/www.lankapage.com) cussions with Muslim representatives in preparing the new set of ion aimed at breaking the current deadlock in the peace process, a
2003)-(Daily News) sed to allow SLMM officials to enter a bunker constructed in not allowing inspection of the bunker was a violation of the Deputy head of the SLMM Hagrup Haukland. (13 July 2003)-
g fully with the terms of a peace agreement with the government n. (14 July 2003)–(www.msnbc.com/www.theacedmic.org) as been taking serious note of the violence by the LTTE and the ould impose a ban on the LTTE within the next six months if it fails es said. (14 July 2003)-(Daily Mirror) g Mission (SLMM) Tryggve Tellefsen arrived in Killinochchi today on e LTTE view over the set of proposals on sea incidents put forward
d the LTTE. (14 July 2003)-(Daily News) la nationalist movement today launched a signature campaign in ging of the North and East, sources said. (14 July 2003)–
its new set of proposals outlining the proposed provisional . The proposals were conveyed through Norwegian special envoy on Westborg. (17 July 2003)-(Daily News on July 18) d the LTTE a Provincial Administrative Council with majority policy. Other nominees will be from the Government, the People's ongress. This is the major highlight of a "Discussion Document" was taken to the Wanni on July 17 by Norway's Special Envoy Jon sets out a "framework for establishing a provincial administrative LTTE to participate significantly in decision making and delivery ilding of the war damaged infrastructure and economy in the
July 2003)-(Sunday Times) ee set up by the LTTE leadership had been tasked to conduct a latest proposals for an Interim Administration for the North and y 2003)-(Daily News on July 21) today came out strongly against the LTTE's response to the SLMM issue, stating that the LTTE reaction was tantamount to challenging
3)-(Daily News on July 21) ts came to a virtual standstill today after some Tamil groups hed a protest campaign demanding the release of eight LTTE cadres week. (22 July 2003)-(Daily Mirror) d today that they are in the process of increasing the number of t sea clashes between the Navy and the Sea Tigers. "We are reasing the number of sea monitors in Jaffna and Trincomalee," Sri puty chief Hagruph Haukland said. (22 July 2003)-(Daily News)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Less than three days after Rehabilitation Minister Dr. Jayalat pro-LTTE students in Jaffna and forced to abandon a public ce Minister, Dr. Rajitha Senaratne was today forced to cance Trincomalee due to a hartal called by the Tamil Organizations
• Army Commander Lt. General Lionel Balagalle today said t strength and that his troops were in the process of building (east) as part of the ongoing process to re-locate troops (HSZs). (27 July 2003)-(The Island)
• For the first time since signing the February 2002 cease-fire a the LTTE's refusal to vacate the Wan Ela camp in Kinniya, Tri according to reports. SLMM's deputy chief, Hagrup Haukland warned that if the deadlock continued, then the army might camp by using force - which the peace monitors are not in fav
• The LTTE said today that it would come out with am Administrative proposals adding that it would resume peace ta political chief Thamilselvan was quoted as saying the L Government's proposals and consulting constitutional and lega
• Unidentified attackers threw a grenade into an office of th wounding one person, a news report and police said today. T on July 28. (28 July 2003)-(AP/www.tamilnet.com/www.theacadem
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tion Minister Dr. Jayalath Jayawardena was almost manhandled by d to abandon a public ceremony, a second Cabinet Minister, Lands today forced to cancel attending a four-day mobile service in the Tamil Organizations Federation. (26 July 2003)-(Sunday Times) el Balagalle today said there will not be any reduction of troops the process of building a new base at Potpathi in Vadamaratchchi ss to re-locate troops based outside Jaffna High Security Zones
bruary 2002 cease-fire agreement Scandinavian monitors have said Ela camp in Kinniya, Trincomalee could possibly damage the truce chief, Hagrup Haukland in an interview with BBC's Tamil service d, then the army might be left with no option than removing the e monitors are not in favour of. (28 July 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
ld come out with amendments to the Government's Interim it would resume peace talks if the Government accepts them. LTTE uoted as saying the LTTE leadership was now studying the ng constitutional and legal experts. (28 July 2003)-(Daily News) ade into an office of the LTTE in the government-held Vavuniya t and police said today. The incident occurred just before midnight
ilnet.com/www.theacademic.org)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL COND
TO
13TH A
UGUST
2003
♦ In July 2003, 43.7% express that peace means Ethnic Ha 51.9% in May 2003. When comparing the past 14 waves that this is the lowest response percentage. (Ref. Page 1
♦ The opinion that war means Disharmony amongst race
2003 to 27.6% in July 2003. However, there is an increa Death/destruction from 56.7% in May 2003 to 61.7% in
♦ The uncertainty as to when there will be peace in Sri La
minds of Sri Lankans (60.4% in May 2003, 60.4% in July opinion that peace will come soon to Sri Lanka from 19 2003 and this decrease in opinion stems mainly from th 2003 to 9.1% in July 2003). 62.1% of the Tamil commun will come soon to Sri Lanka, which is an increase from
♦ The belief that the origin/cause of the war in Sri Lanka
decreased from 41.5% in May 2003 to 37.7% in July 200 believe that Communal Politics is the origin/cause of th May 2003 (28.9%). Further 45.1% of the Tamil commun against Tamils is the origin/cause of the war in Sri Lanka May 2003. Within the Muslim community, 43.7% believ origin/cause of the war, while 48.2% believe it is Discrim decline in both these opinions from May 2003 (Commu Discrimination against Tamils – 58.3%). (Ref. Page 13)
♦ A majority (81.9%) continues to believe that Peace Talk have peace in Sri Lanka, which is a decline from May 20 mainly from the Sinhala community (85.4% in May 2003 14)
♦ Sri Lankans believe that the lack of political will (42.8%) Political Leaders (34.2%) are the top two reasons why t the war for the last 15 years. From an ethnic perspectiv and Muslim (41.9%) communities believe that the lack o hasn’t been a solution. This is an increase from May 200 41.2% of the Tamil community and 21.6% of the Muslim Corrupt Military and Political Leaders is the reason the a decline from May 2003 (Tamil – 51.9%, Muslim – 43.4
♦ In July 2003, 48% believe that the Government is comm which is a lower response percentage than that followin (January 2002 – 58%). 43.6% of the Sinhala community b committed to find peace through talks, a decline from 5
♦ 47.2% of Sri Lankans believe that the LTTE is not comm which is a higher response percentage than that in the p Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) (January 2002 – 42.7%). In community believed that the LTTE was committed to fi
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6
OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
31ST J
ULY 13TH A
UGUST
2003
t peace means Ethnic Harmony, which is a decline from paring the past 14 waves of this opinion, it can be seen e percentage. (Ref. Page 10)
isharmony amongst races has declined from 35.3% in May wever, there is an increase in the opinion that war means in May 2003 to 61.7% in July 2003. (Ref. Page 11)
ere will be peace in Sri Lanka continues to exist in the
May 2003, 60.4% in July 2003). There is a decrease in the oon to Sri Lanka from 19.3% in May 2003 to 15.3% in July ion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (15% in May 1% of the Tamil community, however, believe that peace hich is an increase from 41.9% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 12)
of the war in Sri Lanka is Communal Politics has 2003 to 37.7% in July 2003. 42.8% of the Tamil community is the origin/cause of the war, which is an increase from 1% of the Tamil community believe that Discrimination se of the war in Sri Lanka. This is a decrease from 64% in community, 43.7% believe Communal Politics as the 48.2% believe it is Discrimination against Tamils. There is a
from May 2003 (Communal Politics – 54.2%,
58.3%). (Ref. Page 13)
o believe that Peace Talks is the way to end the war and is a decline from May 2003 (87.4%). This decline stems unity (85.4% in May 2003 to 78.9% in July 2003). (Ref. Page
k of political will (42.8%) and Corrupt Military and e top two reasons why there hasn’t been a solution to rom an ethnic perspective, a majority of the Tamil (59.3%) ies believe that the lack of political will is the reason there
n increase from May 2003 (Tamil – 39.8%, Muslim – 26%). and 21.6% of the Muslim community also believe that eaders is the reason there hasn’t been a solution, which is il – 51.9%, Muslim – 43.4%). (Ref. Page 15)
he Government is committed to find peace through talks, entage than that following the December 2001elections f the Sinhala community believe that the Government is gh talks, a decline from 50.6% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 16)
at the LTTE is not committed to find peace through talks, centage than that in the period before the signing of the anuary 2002 – 42.7%). In May 2003, 53.6% of the Muslim TTE was committed to find peace through talks, however

Page 10
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
in July 2003, 28.2% of the Muslim community believe th peace through talks. In July 2003, 35.2% of the Muslim c is not committed to find peace through talks, an increas contrast, 79.5% of the Tamil community believe that th peace through talks, which is an increase from 77.4% in
♦ 40.2% of Sri Lankans believe that the Government goes Commitment to peace. The belief that the Governmen Realisation that this war cannot be won has decreased in July 2003. 18.2% believe that the Government goes in this opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (
♦ 37.3% believe that the LTTE goes in for talks to fool the percentage when compared with May 2003 (29.1%) as w signing of the CFA (January 2002 – 27.9%). This opinion community (43.9%). (Ref. Page 19)
♦ There is a marked decline in the belief that only the Go
be involved in negotiations (26.7% in May 2003 to 12.5% advocate the widest range of involvement in negotiation communities, 60% of the Muslim community believe in which includes a separate Muslim delegation. Within th increase in the opinion that only the Government and t negotiations, from 16.4% in May 2003 to 22.2% in July 2 increase in the Tamil community’s opinion for the wide negotiations (7.3% in May 2003 to 20.5% in July 2003). (
♦ 59.1% of Sri Lankans believe that an international third
positive impact or will be essential for the peace proces an international third party’s involvement is not essenti 2003. Within the Muslim community there is a significan international third party’s involvement is essential from July 2003. (Ref. Page 21)
♦ Overall, people’s approval of Norway assisting in the Sr decreased from 43.3% in May 2003 to 34.6% in July 200 Muslim (12.2%) communities’ disapproval of Norway as increased when compared with May 2003 (Sinhala – 26 community’s approval of this has decreased from 96.5% 2003. (Ref. Page 22)
♦ Sri Lankans seem to have a divided opinion with regard facilitate talks (Approve – 32.2%, Disapprove – 32%). T and Muslim (53.5%) communities’ approval of Norway c declined since May 2003 (Sinhala – 35.2%, Tamil – 96.2%
♦ 30.4% of Sri Lankans believe that India’s involvement in have a positive impact on the peace process, a decline f an increase in the belief that India’s involvement is esse 27.5% in July 2003. The Sinhala (20.1%), Tamil (54.6%) a
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003

Page ndex
7
im community believe that the LTTE is committed to find 3, 35.2% of the Muslim community believe that the LTTE through talks, an increase from 13.1% in May 2003. In mmunity believe that the LTTE is committed to find n increase from 77.4% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 17)
at the Government goes in for talks due to its lief that the Government goes in for talks due to the t be won has decreased from 29% in May 2003 to 20.7% t the Government goes in for talks to fool the people and
the Sinhala community (20.7%). (Ref. Page 18)
es in for talks to fool the people, a higher response ith May 2003 (29.1%) as well as with the period before the 02 – 27.9%). This opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala 19)
e belief that only the Government and the LTTE should .7% in May 2003 to 12.5% in July 2003). Moreover, 25.1%
volvement in negotiations. Compared to the other m community believe in the widest range of involvement, lim delegation. Within the Tamil community, there is an ly the Government and the LTTE should be involved in y 2003 to 22.2% in July 2003. There is also a significant ity’s opinion for the widest range of involvement in
to 20.5% in July 2003). (Ref. Page 20)
at an international third party’s involvement will have a ntial for the peace process. In contrast, 19.5% believe that volvement is not essential, an increase from 14.5% in May
unity there is a significant decline in the belief that an lvement is essential from 74.3% in May 2003 to 58.4% in
orway assisting in the Sri Lankan Peace Process has 2003 to 34.6% in July 2003. The Sinhala (34.2%) and
isapproval of Norway assisting in the peace process has May 2003 (Sinhala – 26.9%, Muslim – 7.3%). The Tamil as decreased from 96.5% in May 2003 to 85.9% in July
ided opinion with regard to Norway continuing to %, Disapprove – 32%). The Sinhala (24.2%), Tamil (85.7%) ies’ approval of Norway continuing to facilitate talks has
la – 35.2%, Tamil – 96.2%, Muslim – 61.6%). (Ref. Page 23)
at India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process will eace process, a decline from 39.6% in May 2003. There is dia’s involvement is essential, from 22.3% in May 2003 to
(20.1%), Tamil (54.6%) and Muslim (65.4%) communities’

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
belief that India’s involvement is essential, has increased (Sinhala – 14.7%, Tamil – 50%, Muslim - 50.8%). (Ref. Pa
♦ Of those aware of the involvement of foreign monitors 27.2% believe such a monitoring mission will have a pos CFA, which is a significant decline from 43.5% in May 20 from the Sinhala (50.8% in May 2003 to 30.9% in July 20 2003 to 3.9% in July 2003) communities. Further, 15.8% mission is not essential, an increase from 7.2% in May 2
♦ 26.9% of Sri Lankans express their agreement when ask This is a decline from 32.1% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 26)
♦ There is a decline in the opinion that the SLMM is effec from 29.4% in May 2003 to 25.6% in July 2003. (Ref. Pag
♦ Of those aware that the LTTE refused to pullout of the Government controlled area, despite the SLMM’s ruling negative impact on the peace process. Compared to th community seems to have a divided opinion with regard no impact – 39.7%, Will have a negative impact – 34.6%
♦ Of those aware that the Government and the LTTE hav committed to finding a solution based on federalism wit disapprove of this agreement, while 32.4% approve of it opinion within the Muslim community, where 40.9% dis 39.1% approve of it. (Ref. Page 30)
♦ While 34.5% don’t know or are unsure as to whether t Muslims of the East are being adequately represented in believe that they are, which is an increase from 26.5% in in the Muslim community’s opinion that the interests an Muslims are not adequately represented in the peace ta 77.8% in July 2003. (Ref. Page 31)
♦ The Muslim community (69.3%) believes that the curren
the interests and concerns of the Eastern Muslims in th impact on the peace process, which is an increase from 32)
♦ 38.1% believe that there should be a separate Muslim d majority (91.2%) of the Muslim community believes tha Muslim delegation to the peace talks, which is an increa Page 33)
♦ Of those aware that international donors pledged $4.5
rebuild Sri Lanka, at the aid conference in Tokyo in June positive impact on the peace process, while 21.4% don’ believe that it will have no impact on the peace process
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003

Page ndex
8
is essential, has increased when compared with May 2003 Muslim - 50.8%). (Ref. Page 24)
ent of foreign monitors in monitoring the Ceasefire, g mission will have a positive impact on the success of the ine from 43.5% in May 2003. This decline stems mainly 2003 to 30.9% in July 2003) and Muslim (10.7% in May munities. Further, 15.8% believe that such a monitoring ease from 7.2% in May 2003. (Ref. Page 25)
heir agreement when asked about SLMM’s impartiality.
May 2003. (Ref. Page 26)
n that the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the CFA .6% in July 2003. (Ref. Page 27)
refused to pullout of the training camp in Kinniya, a espite the SLMM’s ruling, 85% believe that it will have a rocess. Compared to the other communities, the Tamil vided opinion with regard to the impact of this (Will have
negative impact – 34.6%). (Ref. Page 29)
rnment and the LTTE have announced that they are
based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka, 44.2% while 32.4% approve of it. There seems to be a divided
munity, where 40.9% disapprove of the agreement while 30)
e unsure as to whether the interests and concerns of the dequately represented in the peace talks, 30.1% do not an increase from 26.5% in May 2003. There is an increase nion that the interests and concerns of the Eastern presented in the peace talks from 66.2% in May 2003 to 1)
) believes that the current inadequate representation of he Eastern Muslims in the peace talks will have a negative
hich is an increase from 58.9% in May 2003. (Ref. Page
d be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace talks. A
community believes that there should be a separate talks, which is an increase from 83.7% in May 2003. (Ref.
nal donors pledged $4.5 billion for a period of 4 years, to nference in Tokyo in June, 57% believe that it will have a rocess, while 21.4% don’t know or are unsure. 15.8% act on the peace process. (Ref. Page 35)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ 55.9% of those aware of the recent killings of people w
attached to Sri Lankan intelligence, believe that the LTT while 22.9% don’t know or are unsure. Within the Tam state whom they believe is responsible for these killings
♦ A majority (84.2%) believes that the recent killings of pe were attached to Sri Lankan intelligence, will have a neg process. Compared to the other communities, 57.3% o that this will have no impact on the peace process. (Ref
♦ Of those aware of the recent killings of those attached
opposed to the LTTE, 71.1% believe that the LTTE is re 19.3% don’t know or are unsure. Within the Tamil com whom they believe is responsible for these killings. (Ref
♦ 76.5% believe that the recent killings of those attached
opposed to the LTTE, will have a negative impact on th the other communities 58.4% of the Tamil community b impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 41)
♦ Of those aware of the Government’s proposal of the 1 a Provincial Administrative Structure for the Northern disapprove of such a proposal while 32.6% approve and proposal. 50.3% of the Sinhala community and 57.3% of disapprove of such a proposal, while 84.5% of the Tami proposal. (Ref. Page 43)
♦ Cost of living (5 point rating mean - 3.76) seems to be t
are concerned about while unemployment (5 point rati conflict (5 point rating mean - 2.09) follow close behind
♦ 37.1% believe that the peace process has had no impact 34% believe that it has had a positive impact. 21% believ a negative impact and 7.9% don’t know or are unsure. 3 believe that the peace process has had no impact on th community (43.6%) believe that the peace process has h living conditions. The Muslim community however has a believe that the peace process has had a positive impac 32.9% believe that the peace process has had a negative
For further information please
Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Pe
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternativ
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@dia Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003

Page ndex
9
cent killings of people who are informants of, or were nce, believe that the LTTE is responsible for these killings, unsure. Within the Tamil community, 78% are unable to ponsible for these killings. (Ref. Page 37)
t the recent killings of people who are informants of, or telligence, will have a negative impact on the peace er communities, 57.3% of the Tamil community believe n the peace process. (Ref. Page 38)
illings of those attached to Tamil political parties who are elieve that the LTTE is responsible for these killings while re. Within the Tamil community, 77% are unable to state ble for these killings. (Ref. Page 40)
illings of those attached to Tamil political parties who are e a negative impact on the peace process. Compared to of the Tamil community believe that this will have no Ref. Page 41)
ment’s proposal of the 17th of July, to the LTTE, to set up ucture for the Northern and Eastern Province, 43.7% while 32.6% approve and 23.7% are unsure of such a community and 57.3% of the Muslim community while 84.5% of the Tamil community approve of such a
ean - 3.76) seems to be the issue that most Sri Lankans mployment (5 point rating mean - 2.67) and the Ethnic 2.09) follow close behind. (Ref. Page 44)
rocess has had no impact on their living conditions, while ositive impact. 21% believe that the peace process has had ’t know or are unsure. 39.9% of the Sinhala community has had no impact on their living conditions. The Tamil t the peace process has had a positive impact on their ommunity however has a divided opinion, where 34% has had a positive impact on their living conditions while rocess has had a negative impact. (Ref. Page 45)
er information please contact:
ma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator ntre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 70475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Page 13
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDE
M
AY
2001 – J
ULY
2003
T
HE
P
ERCEPTION OF
W
AR AND
P
EACE
What does ‘peace’ mean to you? [Multiple Ans
National Trend
70
63 60
54
49.2
21.6
May '01 September
'01
52.7
54.5
46.1
53.9
50.6 50.5 50
16
14.9
4 41.4
%
40
36.7
34.7
35.9 35
37.5
34.7
36.4
35.8
30
24.7
35.7
32
29.3
29 25.9
25.4
31.2
34.7
35
20
10
10.4
15.3
16.2 11.2
18.3
9.8
14.9
15.5
0
January '02 May '02 September
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
36.1
J
7.4
Up-country Tamil
22
41.1
0 20 40 60 80
%
77.7 8.2
40.9
Muslim
53.3
78.1 20.5
44.1
Tamil
43
55.4
10.9
Sinhala
9
39.5

I C
ONFIDENCE
NDEX
(PCI)
M
AY
2001 – J
ULY
2003
D
P
EACE
to you? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
53.9
50.6
50.5 End of war
Ethnic Harmony 32.4
Feeling Safe
16.2
Freedom
ic Breakdown
78.1
47.8 47.2
44.9
51.9
41.4
43.7
34.7
36.4
15.3
y '02 September
'02
35.8
42.7 39
39.9
31.2
34.7
25.4
35
34.1
31
38.2
27.6
16.7
17.7
14.9
15.5 14.9
12.6
January '03 May '03
77.7
55.4 53.3
Freedom Feeling safe Ethnic Harmony End of war
60 80 100
Page 10

Page 14
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What does ‘war’ mean to you? [Multiple Answe
National Trend
70
3.5
June '01 November
'01
60.2 60
39.6
54.4 58.9
57.8
55.9 51.3
50.8 50
43.1
42.8
40
%
30
27.1
30.3
24.5
23.9
25.2 27.4
27.7
3
22.9
22.3 15
8.7
Ethnic Breakdown
1.9
26.4
26.2
26
20
21.5
22.9
20.3 17.1
21.5 16.7
18.2
21.2
16.2
16.2 25.7
12.3
10.9
9.8
16.4 16.6
15.8
12.9
11.4
15.6
10
16.8
12.4
9.9
9.4
13.2
8.7
0
0.3
7.8
8.6
3.5
2.7
3.3 3.5
2.7
4.6
March '02 July '02 November
'02
Marc
12.5
Up-country Tamil
6.1
14.6
22.4
30.1
34.6
8.1
Muslim
45.5
54.7
11.9
13.4
64.4
11.4
26.8
Tamil
1.1
5.7
8.6
13.4
48.3
86.6
Sinhala
23.4
26.2
61.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
%

you? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
58.9
57.8
55.9
56.2
61.7
56.7
11.3
8.7
3.5
2
Means to achieving peace
Fighting for rights
Disharmony amongst races
Hindrance to economic growth/ Rise in cost of living Death / Destruction
Terrorism
ic Breakdown
.2
35.3
.2
27.4
26
27.7
30.1
27.6
22.9
22.3
25.7
23.6
22.4
26
16.2
15.6 5.8
9.4
11.1
10
14.3
9.9
13.2
8.7
2.7
10.1
7.8
.5
2 November
'02
4.6
2.2
2.6
March '03 July '03
Terrorism
64.4
Death / Destruction
Hindrance to economic growth/ Rise in cost of living
86.6
Disharmony amongst races
Fighting for rights
Means to achieving peace
70 80 90 100
Page 11

Page 15
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
When will there be peace in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
80
21.1
24.8
May '01 September
'01
71.3
70
63.8
60
53.9
54.5
57.9
57.2
60
58.4
58.6
57
50
%
40
30
0
Ethnic Breakdown
9.1
24.8
20
11
18.9
22.1
13.4
10
10.2 9.9 10.6 7.5
7.2
6.7 4.9
6.8
9
7.6 10
January '02
May '02 September
'02
30.7
Up-country Tamil
1.4 1.9
8.1
13.1
24.7
1.4
6.3
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
44.6
Muslim
1.4
3.1
4.9
45
5.9
12.8
32.7
Tamil
1.4
3 3.4
4.8
62
Sinhala

in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
60
58.4
58.6
57.6
61.9
60.4
15.3
8.7
ay '02 September
'02
60.1
60.4
22.1
21.1
24.8
21
17.7
Soon
Never
Don't know
nic Breakdown
62.1
19.3
6.8
7.69
10.4
8.2
17.3
10
8.5
January '03
May '03
44.6
45
65.8
40 50 60 70
Don't know Never Not in my life time Within the next ten years Within the next five years Soon
Page 12

Page 16
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
In your opinion what was the origin/cause(s) of [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
45
41.6
41.5
33.1
17.9
June '01 November
'01
40.3 40
33.8
34.5
33.4
37.8
39.3
35.1
36
35
24.7
24.4
24.3
36.2
30
29.2
26
28
29.2
25.6
%
25
22.5
20
2.6
3.6 Ethnic Breakdown
38
15.2
9.2 7.8
9.9
4.2
14.2
11.7
8.3
0
14.8 15
11.7
13.2
11
9.1
8.7
12.4
10
9
8.2
8.7
14.3
5
8.4
7.1
9
6.6 1.4
3.6
4 4.9 4
8.1 6.9
3.9 6.8 2
2.9
7
8
9.8 2
3.3
March '02 July '02 November
'02
Marc
19.4
Up-country Tamil
2.7
5.6
34
0
15.8
12.8 13.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 6
%
44.8
2.8
15.1
9.5
12.4 Muslim
11.3
43.3
0.6
9
16.5
43.7
48.2
0 Tamil
42.8
45.1
Sinhala

the origin/cause(s) of the war in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
41.5 39.3
36.3
37.7
24.4
21.4
3.2
Communal politics
Discrimination against Tamils
Discrimination against Sinhalese
Sinhala chauvinism
Tamil chauvinism
Terrorism
ic Breakdown
38
35.1
36.2
25.6
22.5
20.4
19.5
.9
3.6 15.2 11.7
12.6
8.2
8.7
8.3
14.3
12.3 12.1
11.2
12.1
10.4 10.6
2 November
'02
12
6.8 2
7
8
9.8
2.9
3.3
2.3
March '03 July '03
4
44.8
Terrorism
Tamil chauvinism 43.3
43.7
48.2
Sinhala chauvinism
Discrimination against Sinhalese
42.8
45.1
Discrimination against Tamils
Communal politics
40 50 60
Page 13

Page 17
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
S
OLUTIONS TO THE
C
ONFLICT
How do you think we can end the war and
[Multiple Answers]
National Trend
100
90
85
87.2
84.4
86
83.7
71.3
59.1
5.5
0
May '01 September
'01
80.7 80
70
68.6
71.9
60
%
50
40
30
18
24.4
20
7.6
Ethnic Breakdown
13.3
19.9 20
10
9.9
7
10.1
7.2 1.3
0.8 1 0.9
1.1
0.8
0.8 1 1.1 January
'02
May '02 September
'02
Ja
98 Up-country Tamil
0 0
0
0.5
%
95.8 Muslim
1.7 0.4
97.1 Tamil
0
78.9 Sinhala
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

n end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
.2
84.4
86
83.7
83.7
86.7
11.1
'02 September
'02
87.4
81.9
5.5
Government defeating the LTTE
LTTE defeating the Government
Peace talks
10.1
7.2
6.5
10.4
7
0.8
0.8
1 1.1 0.3
nic Breakdown
78.9
0.6
0.4
0.5
January '03
May '03
98
95.8
Peace talks
LTTE defeating the
97.1
Government
Government defeating the LTTE
80 100 120
Page 14

Page 18
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think there hasn’t been a solution odd years? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
50
46.2 45
37.3 34.1
11.3
May '01 September
'01
44.2 44
40.5
44
7.3
8.6
9.3
4.8
39.1
39.4 40
38.5
36.7
37.1
41 35
33.4
34.8 30
30.1
30.3
30.9
31.8
35
30.6
30.2
33.1
%
25
25.8
24.5 20
22.2
21.2
20.7
19
15
18.5
18.6
18.2
10
10.6 10.5 5
0
6.5 6.5
7
0
January
May '02 September '02
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
35.6
Jan
'0
26.8
Up-country Tamil
0.9
2.2
14.7
0
4.6
13.5
21.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
%
37
2.8
16
Muslim
11.4
15.9
27.9
32.9
21.6
41.9
5.9
8.7
Tamil
0
41.2
59.3
Sinhala
41.9

asn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15
ers]
National Trend
44.2 44
40.5
44.2
41.8
44
34.2
10.6 10.5
7
Corrupt military and political leaders
No political will
LTTE does not want peace
War is necessary for people in power
ic Breakdown
41.2
41.9
42.8
41.4
30.6
30.2
33.1
32.7
34.8
19.5 19.1
18.6
18.2
15.7
7.5 7.6
4.8
2 September
'02
13.1
14 11.3
January '03
May '03
Don't know
War is necessary for people in power
41.9
LTTE does not want peace
The strength of the LTTE
59.3
No political will
Corrupt military and political leaders
50 60 70
Page 15

Page 19
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
C
ONFIDENCE
I think the Government is committed to find pe
National Trend
80
69.8
70.2
70
63.7 61.8 58 60
50.2
53
50
43.8 44 %
40
31.4
30
23.8
22.5
24.5
20
10
11.9
9.8
9.1
12
15.1
0
May '01 September
January '02 May '02 Septembe '01
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
8.2
Up-country Tamil
17.2
14.9
Muslim
9.4
23.7
43.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
6
8.8
Tamil
9.7
Sinhala
17.3

committed to find peace through talks.
National Trend
69.8
70.2
63.7
59.4
56.7
50.1
53.9
48
21.6 12 9.1
Agree
Disagree
ic Breakdown
43.6
22.5
15.1
18.6
May '02 September
'02
20.9
19.1
January '03 May '03
71.7
50 60 70 80
Disagree
65.9
Neither agree nor disagree
73.6
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace th
National Trend
80
15.8
May '01 September
'01
68.5 70
63.5
60
50.6
53.2
42.7
32.9 50
45.7
38.2
0
39.5 %
40
30
20
17.3
12.9
22.2
Ethnic Breakdown
12.8
27.3
25.7
27.5
28.3
9.8 10
January '02 May '02 Septembe
'02
4.6
Up-country Tamil
13.6
35.2
Muslim
18.9
28.2
4.7 Tamil
5.3
53.3 Sinhala
14.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
%

itted to find peace through talks.
National Trend
45.7
45.7
44.9
38.2
20.5
May '02 September
'02
47.2 39.5
25.7
39.8
38.9
Agree Disagree
27.5
28.3
29.3 29
19.7
Ethnic Breakdown
79.5
25.7
January '03 May '03
75.5
53.3
50 60 70 80 90
%
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
Page 17

Page 21
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the Government go Answers]
National Trend
60
50
44.6 41.7
48.8
45.3
42.1
40
39
35.8
39.5
38.3
38
%
37.5
33.4
27
35.5
33.2
32.4
32.5
30
29.6
28.9
29.9
28.6
20
18.6
24.5
18
19.9 19.8
24.1
28.9
24.1
20.1
24
15.5
12.2
10.3
8.4
11.9
10.6 7.18.8 June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02
Ethnic Breakdown
39.6
17.2 19.7
17.6 16.2
9.7
12.4
10
14.
10
14.5
8
0
7.1
9.5
7.4
4.5
4.2 3.5 4.3
3.2
3.9 6.6
Up-country
3.1 3.3
Tamil
21.3
22.8
33.2
4
18.3
20.7
7.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
46.7
Muslim
12.7
14.9
37.5
43.2
17.9
35.2
65.5
0.3 3
Tamil
33.7 24
31.1
47.9
Sinhala

the Government goes in for talks? [Multiple
National Trend
45.3
42.1
40.2
11.2
Commitment to peace
.4
32.5
38.3
38.3
38
36.8
Economic hardship
24.1 8.9
29.9
28.6
27.2
29
23.8
22.4
International pressure
Realisation that this war 24.1
24.6
20.7
cannot be won
12.4
10
20.1
10.3
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
ic Breakdown
65.5
0 80
14.1
12.9
13.1
18.2
.6
3.2.3
10.3 10.9 7.18.8 3.9 6.6
11
5.2
3.7
4.6
ly '02 November '02 March '03 July '03
Lack of manpower
To fool the people
Realisation that this war cannot be won International pressure
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
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Page 22
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for tal
National Trend
50
44.9 45
40
34.6 35
31.3
30
29.1
27.3
31.5
30.8
27.9
25.1
27.7
27.4
30.8
28.
%
25
22.4
24.5
24.7
23.4
20.
15.2
16.1
16.1
12.3
14
June '01 November '01 March '02 July '02 November '02
Ethnic Breakdown
3.8
23.9
20
18.7
18.3
20.4
19
22.5 20 16.7
15.4
14.9
18.1
1
13.1
0
19.1
16.9
18.2
15
13.8
14.6
15.5
8.9
15.9
13.9
18.6
14.6
13.9
12.8
16.
10
14.9
12.5
12.8
14.4
12.4
10.3
13.2
5
8.5
6.6
3.6
4.6 Up-country Tamil
18.3 18.4
27.9
9.7
43.9
19.9 21
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
53.3
16.1
42.6 7.9 Muslim
39.6
47.8
58.9 24
1.7 0 Tamil
9.7
36 15.2
56.8
Sinhala

e LTTE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
23.9
20
Commitment to peace
Economic hardship
International pressure
Realisation that this war cannot be won
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
nic Breakdown
56.8
37.3
30.8
27.7
16.5
13.1
30.8
28.7
28.5 29.1 27.4
25.6
25 24.3 22.5
20.5
18.5
21.9 16.1
16.1
14.5
23.2
22.1 18.2 18.1
14.6
13.9
16.7
15.7
20
14.6
12.9
12.8
19.2
2.4
10.3
13.2
12.6
11.9
11
10.4
ly '02 November '02 March '03 July '03
53.3
58.9
Lack of manpower 42.6
.6
47.8
To fool the people
Realisation that this war cannot be won International pressure
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
43.9
50 60 70
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Page 23
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
T
HE
P
EACE
P
ROCESS
Who should be involved in negotiations?
National Trend
40
36.7
35
32.1
33.9
30
25.1
31.3
27
21.6 21.7
16.4
16.6
1
13.5 14
12
9.5
May '01 September
'01
25.8 25
23
19.9
21.9
%
20
16.2
19
15.9
15.1
19.1
15
15.5
12.4
14.2
15.5
12.1
11
16.4
10
1.9 1.4 1 Ethnic Breakdown
5.4
6.6
5
4.3
4 4.8
2.1 2.1 2.5
0
2.4
January '02 May '02 September
'02
Janua
0
17.8
Up-country Tamil
2.2 2.6
11.9
18.9
37.4
Muslim
0.1
8.2
0
0.6
3.2
3.6
22.2
60
Tamil
0
3.6
8.3
20.5
3.2
19.9
17.2
22.2
2.2
10.7
5
5.9
9.6
11.2
12.9
22.2 Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

n negotiations?
National Trend
26.7
12.5
6.8
Govt. and LTTE only
27
21.9
25.1
Govt.,LTTE and International third 19.9
20.3
party only
.1
16.6
17.2
Govt., Opposition,
12.9
9.8
LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third 9.5
party
1.9
No peace talks
hnic Breakdown
60
18.3
23.3
18.6
11
16.4
9.5 6.6
2.4.5
1.9
1.4 1 1.5
0.9
2 September
'02
January '03 May '03
7.4
0 50 60 70
Don't know
No peace talks
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt. and LTTE only
Page 20

Page 24
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NTERNATIONAL
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
What is your opinion of the need for an in involvement to solve the North East war in Sri
National Trend
40
38
35.8
35
32.6
32.5 32.5
30.9
31.9
30.2
3 30
28.9
25
24.2
20.9
29
28.8
26.1
29
21.8
%
20
16.8
16.5 16
14.2
10 9.6
9.6
10.2
September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 Janua
Ethnic Breakdown
22.9
16.7
1
15
13.1
13.2
14.2
10.5 10
11.6
0
11.3
9.9
11.3
9.2
10.3
5.4
3.2
2.1
0.7
5.4 5
0.9
1.4
4.6
1.4
1
8.4 5.7 Up-country Tamil 0
2.4
19.3
8.6
4.2
10.1
0.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
64.1
14.6 4.1 Muslim
4.4
8.4
3.8
32.5
58.4
3.9
7.1 Tamil
0
3.3
81.5
22.2 Sinhala

F
ACILITATION
f the need for an international third party’s North East war in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
.9
31.9
30.2
32.1
Is essential 30.5
29 29.3
28.6
Will add a positive
26.1
impact
Will have no impact
Will add a negative impact
Is not essential
Don't know/Not sure
0.9
hnic Breakdown
81.5
30.6 29.8
31.7
29
2
14.2
16.7
17.9
16.2 14.5 1.4
1.4
19.5
11.6
10.5
9.5
10.2
10
9.9
5.4
5.7
4.3
3.7 4.6
1.4 1.6
1
September '02 January '03 May '03
3.7
64.1
60 80 100
Don't know/Not sure Is not essential 58.4
Will add a negative impact Will have no impact Will add a positive impact Is essential
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Page 25
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
N
ORWEGIAN
F
ACILITATION
Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace proce
National Trend
60
53.8
50
50.7
42.4
46.3
42.7
42.3 40
37
%
30
23.1
24.5
22.4
23
28.2
2
20
20.5
18
18
19.4
22.8
21.8
18.7 15.5
13.6 12.8 9.1
7.8 8.8
0
January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03
Ethnic Breakdown
25.9
22.1 17.9
10
10.2
3.4
Up-country Tamil
4
9.1
7.3
23.2
34.2
0 20 40 %
60 80
82
10.9
Muslim
7.7
12.2
16
67.8
5.3
Tamil
1.6
8
Sinhala

i Lankan peace process
National Trend
46.3
42.3
38
43.3
34.6
14.6
8.8
Approve
Neither approve
28.2
29.8
nor disapprove
22.7
Disapprove
21.8
18.7
Don't know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
85.9
29.5 23
21
21.1
20.5
10.2
11.1
11.8
r '02 January '03 May '03
82.7
%
60 80 100
Don't know/Not sure
67.8
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
Page 22

Page 26
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Norway continuing to facilitate talks.
National Trend
50
44.1 45
40
41.3
38.2
38.7
35
%
30
29.4
26.9
25
22.6
23.3
19.7
20.9
20
21.8
21.8
15
11.9
13.2
10
13.6
10.7 5
0
September '02 November '02 January '03 March '03
Ethnic Breakdown
4.1
Up-country Tamil
6.4
10
13.6
Muslim
16.3 15.2
53.5
5
Tamil
2.2
7.1
23.9
Sinhala
14.4
24.2
36.7
0 10 20 30 40 %
50 60

ilitate talks.
National Trend
42.6 38.7
32.2
13.2
13.8 12.4
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
Don't know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
85.7
32 26.9
20.9
22.2
21.3 21.8
3 March '03 May '03 July '03
79.6
6.7
0 %
50 60 70 80 90
Don't know/Not sure
53.5
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
Page 23

Page 27
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NDIA
’
S
I
NVOLVEMENT
What is your opinion of the need for India’ Lankan peace process?
National Trend
45
40
19.2
16.2
May '02 September '02 January '03
35.9
31.7
33.8
32.7
35.5 35
30
27
%
25
26.1
26.6
20.8
20
16.2
16.4
15.6
14.9
2.7 1.2
18.6
14.3
1
0
Ethnic Breakdown
20.1
17.4
15
16.8
10
13.1
12.5
13.5
5
3.5
5.9 8.4 9.2
7.1
5
1.9
1.3 1.7
Up-country Tamil
2.1
3.8 4.2
5.9 7
Muslim
3.6
4.6
5.2
8.5
11
0.7
6
13.8
17.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
65.4
Tamil
4
8.6
9.5
10.8
12.5
35
54.6
Sinhala

f the need for India’s involvement in the Sri
National Trend
35.5
35.9
39.6
30.4
22.3
1.7
1.6 1.6
Is essential
Will add a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will add a negative impact
Is not essential
Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
54.6
27.5
2
17.4
18.6
16.8
15.8
4.3
16.2
13
13.6
12.4
15.9
12.9
.2 7.1
5.6
5.3
January '03 May '03
6.1
3
77.1
50 60 70 80 90
%
Don't know/Not sure
Is not essential
65.4
Will add a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will add a positive impact
Is essential
Page 24

Page 28
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
R
ECENT
P
OLITICAL
D
EVELO
S
RI
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
If you are aware of the involvement of foreig the ceasefire, what is your opinion of the ne mission for the ceasefire agreement to succeed
National Trend
50
45
37.9
39.4
39.3
40.5
41.5
37.5
43
40
35
31.2
33.6
30
26.7
%
25
26.3 29.7
25.3
26.7
20
15
10.3 10
7.3
4.6
5.6 5
4.2 6.7
8.4
5.6 5.8
4.2 1.4
March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03
Ethnic Breakdown
15.6
9.6
6.9
7
5.2
4.1
3.8
4.5 7.5
5.2
0
1.9
1.9 1.7
0.6
4.1 1.7 3.7 0.4
0
Up-country Tamil
0.4 0
3.3
30.4
2.7
10.3
0
0
5.6
9.3
%
59 1.5
30.9
0 20 40 60 80 100
Wil
Muslim
3.9
7.4
of S Is n 66.7
Wil 2.4 Tamil
0.6 2.7
Wil
89.7
Wil
Sinhala
0.6
18.1
Is e

P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
ION
nvolvement of foreign monitors in monitoring ur opinion of the need for such a monitoring
greement to succeed?
National Trend
24.8
Is essential
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Is not essential
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
Breakdown
89.7
0 100
43
43.5 37.5
7
29
25.3
26.7
27.2
15.8
.6 .5 .2
7.5 9.6
4.1
6.9
5.2
7.2
2.8
5.3
1.7
8.5 5.4 3.7 0.4 0.2 0.6 '02 March '03 July '03
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka Is not essential
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
Is essential
Page 25

Page 29
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is imp the ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
40
35.5
35
29 30
33.1
31.7
33.2
32.8
30.3
28.9
26.8
27.4
27.6
27
25
23.6
18
14.6
May '02 September '02 January '03
21.3
0
21.4
%
20
15.7
22.5
22.8
Ethnic Breakdown
21.4
19.2
18.9 15
18 17.8
10
5
20
Up-country Tamil
7.1
9.8
23
35.1
0 10 20 30 40 %
50 60
63.
16.5
Muslim
20.1
21.2
20.1
42.2
13.3
Tamil
2.1
16.2
Sinhala

itoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of
National Trend
30.3
32.8
32.1
Agree
27
30.1
26.9
Neither agree nor disagree 22.8
19.6
Disagree 19.2
18.9
17.4
Don't know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
68.4
31.3
27.6
21.3
19.6
21.9
January '03 May '03
63.2
.1
0 %
50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
42.2
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
Page 26

Page 30
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effe the ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
35
30
31.4
28.7
30.5
28
30.6
25
26.1
26
26.6
24
21.3
22.8
19.3
20.3
21.4
19.7
July '02 September
'02
24.3
25.7
22.4
0
24.8 23.8 %
20
15
10
5
November '02
Ethnic Breakdown
20.8
January '03 March '03 M
12.9
Up-country Tamil
13 11.3
23.7
37.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
62
19.2
Muslim
16.8
17.8
32.9 31
13
Tamil
1.5
19.5
Sinhala

itoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of
National Trend
30.6
29.4
33
29.4
25.6 5.7
22.8
22.4 22.4 9.7
19.1
18.6
Agree
26.6
24
21.1
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Don't know/Not sure
ary '03 March '03 May '03 July '03
nic Breakdown
62.7
66
37.3
40 50 60 70
Don't know/Not sure Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
Page 27

Page 31
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware that the LTTE refuse to pullou Kinniya, a Government controlled area, despite
National Breakdown
38.6
Ethnic Breakdown
38.6 National
Up-country Tamil
39.7
40.7 Muslim
29.3 Tamil
38.3 Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 %
50

TTE refuse to pullout of the training camp in ntrolled area, despite the SLMM’s ruling?
Breakdown
61.4
Yes No
Ethnic Breakdown
38.6
61.4
60.3
39.7
40.7
No
59.3
Yes
3
70.7
38.3
61.3
40 %
50 60 70 80
Page 28

Page 32
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that the LTTE refuse to pullo Kinniya, what in your opinion will be the imp process?
National Breakdown
85
5.9
1.7
7.4
Ethnic Breakdown
0.8
7.4
National
5.9 1.7
8.2
Up-country Tamil
8.2 0
5.9
Muslim
0
2.7
15.1
Tamil
34.6
39.7 9.7
5.6
Sinhala
2.7
0 20 40 %
60 8

LTTE refuse to pullout of the training camp in inion will be the impact of this on the peace
al Breakdown
1.7
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
7.4
Don't know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
85
89.9
%
60 80 100 Don't know/Not sure
83.6
Will have a negative impact 88.3
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
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Page 33
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
EDERAL
S
OLUTION
If you are aware that the Government and th that they are committed to finding a solution b a united Sri Lanka, please tell me if you appr agreement?
National Trend
50
45
41.7
40
36.1
35
33.3
34.1
30
30.6
%
25
24
20
15
10
5
0
March '03 May '03
Ethnic Breakdown
6.4 Up-country Tamil
3.3
26.5
21.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
%
90
18.2 Muslim
40.9 39.1
4.1 Tamil
1.7
Sinhala
51.4

e Government and the LTTE have announced to finding a solution based on federalism within e tell me if you approve or disapprove of this
National Trend
.7
44.2
32.4
4
23.1
'03 July '03
Approve
.1
Disapprove
Don’t know/Not sure
c Breakdown
90.3
94.1
.4
60 70 80 90 100
Don’t know/Not sure
Disapprove
Approve
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Page 34
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
T
HE
M
USLIM
C
OMMUNITY
Do you think that the interests and concerns o are being adequately represented in the peace
National Trend
40
36.5
35.6 35
34.1 34.3 30
28.5
30
29.6 29.4 25 %
20
26.2
26.5
22.9
15
18.9
10
5
0
November '02 January '03 March '03 May '03
Ethnic Breakdown
35.1
Up-country Tamil
30.7
32.5
7.9
Muslim
12.9
24.6
Tamil
17.6
54.9
37.2
Sinhala
27.4
25
0 10 20 30 40 %
50 60 70

erests and concerns of the Muslims of the East esented in the peace talks?
National Trend
.1
34.3 34.5
5
30
30.1
26.4 6.2
26.5
'03 May '03 July '03
Yes
No
Don't know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
54.9
77.8
.2
%
50 60 70 80 90
Don't know/Not sure
No
Yes
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Page 35
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What in your opinion will be the impact of this
National Trend
60
50
46.2
48.1
40
34.6
%
30
19.9
20.7
21
20
17.9
18.2
19.6
10
10.5
6.3 0
January '03 March '03 May '03
Ethnic Breakdown
18.5
11.9
48.1
Up-country Tamil
13
15.5
23.4
13.9
Muslim
6.7
9.1
32.4
Tamil
6.7
27.6 25.7
51.6
Sinhala
5.9
23.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

be the impact of this on the peace process?
National Trend
48.1
47.9
17.9
18.6
11.9
7.6
May '03 July '03
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
21
24.9
Will have a negative impact
Don't know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
48.1
69.3
51.6
0 50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Do you think there should be a separate Muslim talks?
National Trend
40
35.4
35
31.5
30
29.5
27.8
25
28.7
27.5
%
20
15
10
5
0
March '03 May '03
Ethnic Breakdown
28.8 Up-country Tamil
23.1
42.6
3.4 Muslim
3.9
15.3
Tamil
33.9
43.4
33.1
Sinhala
22.4
33.4
0 20 40 60 80
%

d be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace
National Trend
35.4
38.1
27.8
27.5
21.9
May '03 July '03
Yes
No
Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
.4
30
6
60 80 100
%
91.2
Don't know/Not sure No Yes
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
OREIGN
A
ID
Are you aware that international donors pledg of four years, to rebuild Sri Lanka, at the aid June?
National Breakdown
26.5
Ethnic Breakdown
National
26.5
Up-country Tamil
49.5
50.5
Muslim
36.5
63.5
Tamil
12.5
Sinhala
25.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

ational donors pledged $4.5 billion for a period Sri Lanka, at the aid conference in Tokyo in
al Breakdown
73.5
Yes No
thnic Breakdown
73.5
49.5
50.5
87.5
74.4
50 60 70 80 90 100
%
63.5
No Yes
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Page 38
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that international donors p period of four years, to rebuild Sri Lanka, at th in June, what in your opinion will be the imp process?
National Breakdown
57
15.8
21.4
5.8
Ethnic Breakdown
21.4 National
5.8
15.8
17.8
23.2 5.5
55.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
57
5 Up-country Tamil
7.6
9.1
15.3 Muslim
13.3
18.9
15.6
52.2
3.4 Tamil
2.1
Sinhala

ternational donors pledged $4.5 billion for a build Sri Lanka, at the aid conference in Tokyo inion will be the impact of this on the peace
onal Breakdown
57
Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
57
74.9
55.1
50 60 70 80 %
75.4
Don't know/Not sure Will have a negative impact
52.2
Will have no impact Will have a positive impact
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
R
ECENT
K
ILLINGS
Are you aware of the recent killings of people were attached to Sri Lankan intelligence?
National Breakdown
32.6
6
Ethnic Breakdown
National
32.6
Up-country Tamil
30.4
Muslim
50.7
48.8
Tamil
15
Sinhala
30.6
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

ent killings of people who are informants of or an intelligence?
reakdown
67.4
Yes No
Ethnic Breakdown
2.6
85
69.3
40 50 60 70 80 90
%
67.4
6
68.9
4
50.7
48.8
No Yes
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Page 40
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the recent killings of people were attached to Sri Lankan intelligence, in y think is responsible for these killings?
National Breakdown
60
55.9
50
40
%
30
20
10
5.3
0
LTTE Government Forces
Ethnic Breakdown
22.9 National
5.3
1.1
15.2
63.
%
55.9
4.9
58 Up-country Tamil
16 10.9
58.9 Muslim
4.6
27.9
Tamil
7.9
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

cent killings of people who are informants of or kan intelligence, in your opinion, who do you ese killings?
National Breakdown
22.9
5.3
Government Forces Don't know/Not Sure
Ethnic Breakdown
55.9
58
78
63.4
50 60 70 80 90 %
Don't know/Not sure 58.9
Government Forces
LTTE
Page 37

Page 41
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the recent killings of people were attached to Sri Lankan intelligence, wha the impact of this on the peace process?
National Breakdown
84.2
6.9
1.1
7.8
Ethnic Breakdown
0.7
7.8 National
6.9 1.1
5.2 Up-country Tamil
36
54.6
4.2
10.1 Muslim
6.9 0.7
11.6 Tamil
26.9
4.3 7
1.5
%
57.3
Sinhala
0 20 40 60

cent killings of people who are informants of or kan intelligence, what in your opinion will be peace process?
nal Breakdown
1.1
Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure
7.8
Ethnic Breakdown
84.2
57.3
90.3
60 80 100 %
Don't know/Not sure 54.6
Will have a negative impact
81.6
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware of the recent killings of those a parties who are opposed to the LTTE?
National Breakdown
45
Ethnic Breakdown
National
45
17.6
54.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
55
Up-country Tamil
30.3
Muslim
48.3
51.7
Tamil
Sinhala
45

ent killings of those attached to Tamil political to the LTTE?
l Breakdown
55
Yes No
thnic Breakdown
45
81.4
54.8
0 50 60 70 80 90
%
55
45
69
51.7
48.3
No Yes
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the recent killings of those a parties who are opposed to the LTTE, in your is responsible for these killings?
National Breakdown
80
70
71.1
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
0
1
LTTE Government Forces
Ethnic Breakdown
19.3 National
1
40.1
7.5
9.6
%
61 Up-country Tamil
9.8 0
0.8
50.4 Muslim
0
Tamil
1.6
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

cent killings of those attached to Tamil political to the LTTE, in your opinion, who do you think llings?
ional Breakdown
19.3
1
vernment Forces Don't know/Not Sure
Ethnic Breakdown
71.1
61.5
77
82.1
0 50 60 70 80 90
%
Don't know/Not Sure
50.4
Government Forces 40.1
LTTE
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Page 44
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the recent killings of those a parties who are opposed to the LTTE, what in impact of this on the peace process?
National Breakdown
76.5
12.2
10.4
0.9
Ethnic Breakdown
0.5
12.2 National
10.4
4.2
76.5
0.9
0
Up-country Tamil
34.6
65.4
0
5.8 Muslim
6.4 1.7
8.8
Tamil
26.1
11.1
81 4.7
%
58.4
Sinhala
0 20 40 60 80

cent killings of those attached to Tamil political to the LTTE, what in your opinion will be the e process?
l Breakdown
10.4
0.9
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
12.2
Will have a negative impact
Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
76.5
58.4
81.7
60 80 100 %
65.4
Don't know/Not sure Will have a negative impact 85.8
Will have no impact Will have a positive impact
Page 41

Page 45
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NTERIM
A
DMINISTRATION
Are you aware of the Government’s proposals LTTE, to set up a Provincial Administrative St and Eastern Province?
National Breakdown
72.6
Ethnic Breakdown
National
27.4
Up-country Tamil
20.9
Muslim
19.8
Tamil
45.2
54.8
Sinhala
26.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

vernment’s proposals of the 17th of July, to the cial Administrative Structure for the Northern
l Breakdown
27.4
Yes No
ic Breakdown
72.6
54.8
73.3
79.1
80.2
No Yes
45.2
50 60 70 80 90
%
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Page 46
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the Government’s proposal LTTE, to set up a Provincial Administrative St and Eastern Province, please tell me whether y of such a proposal?
National Breakdown
23.7
32.6
43.7
Ethnic Breakdown
23.7 National
43.7 32.6
22.8 Up-country Tamil
17.2
2.9
24.1
50.3 24.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
53.9
28.6 Muslim
57.3 14.1
12 Tamil
Sinhala

overnment’s proposals of the 17th of July, to the cial Administrative Structure for the Northern ase tell me whether you approve or disapprove
reakdown
32.6
Approve Disapprove Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
43.7
53.9
84.5
50.3
0 50 60 70 80 90
%
Don't know/Not sure
Disapprove
57.3
Approve
Page 43

Page 47
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please rank the following issues according to yo Mean [Average score from 5 point rating]
National Breakdown - Mean [Average score
4
2.09
T
3.76
3.5
3
2.67
2.5
2
1.5
0.98
1.05 1
0.76
0.5 0.5
0
c i n h t E e
t c i l f n o C h
t n e m y o l p
g n i v i l f o t s
n o i t a c u d E
m s i r o r r e T
y t i r u c e S m
U e n
o C

issues according to your order of importance –
5 point rating]
Mean [Average score from 5 point rating]
.05
0.76
0.55
0.39
0.94
0.32
0.55
m s i r
T
y t i r u
n o i t
l a t n
n
p
r
y
s
o r r e
c e S
p u r r o C
e m n o r i v
o i t u l l o
E
e d r o d n a w n
c a r c o m e D L a
t h g i r n a m u H
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Page 48
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
In your opinion what kind of impact has the p living conditions?
National Breakdown
7.9
21
34
H H H D
37.1
Ethnic Breakdown
National
7.9
21
43.6
4.1
32.2
%
37.1
22.4
34
2.4 Up-country Tamil
3.6
35.6
3.2 Muslim
25.5
32.9
34
0 Tamil
2.1
12.1
Sinhala
39.9
0 10 20 30 40 50

of impact has the peace process had on your
Breakdown
34
Has had a positive impact Has had no impact Has had a negative impact Don't know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
2.2
37.1 34
35.6
32.9
43.6
39.9
40 50 60 70
%
57.2
Don't know/Not sure
Has had a negative impact
34
Has had no impact
Has had a positive impact
Page 45

Page 49
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in July 2003
DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 200 Gampaha 170 Kalutara 85 Kandy 99 Matale 33 Nuwara Eliya 50 Galle 76 Hambantota 39 Matara 58 Anuradhapura 55 Polonnaruwa 27 Kurunegala 114 Puttlam 51 Badulla 54 Monaragala 27 Ratnapura 74 Kegalle 61 Amparai 41 Batticaloa 37 Trincomalee 30 Vavuniya 11 NATIONAL 1392
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in July 2003
ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1160 Tamil 87 Muslim 88 Up-country Tamil 58 NATIONAL 1392

Annex
istribution in July 2003
TOTAL 200 170 85 99 33 50 76 39 58 55 27 114 51 54 27 74 61 41 37 30 11 1392
tribution in July 2003
TOTAL 1160 87 88 58 1392
i

Page 50
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study i confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is e repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conductin a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase o
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the stud the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fie an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a n factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole f this model.
The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative distr Amparai, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar distric result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficultie stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district on particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statis
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maxim DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order households.
In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KRISH of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PC
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error m noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not sup same level of precision.

ence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public rocess over time it is essential that the study be conducted e study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of ame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of g each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture e span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that ocess is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic d influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in
g 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the uniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a n and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each population proportions. However, some districts are over ty but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the
nicity within a district only if the population proportion of that sional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit nique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri
ent of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
rk and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a uct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews ule) technique in order to assure the random selection of
er is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, lace at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, sehold using the ‘KRISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member f being selected to the PCI sample.
ubject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the
ii

Page 51
Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social resea conducts polls on socio-economic and political iss
Operating under the Board of Directors of Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in Septem longstanding vacuum for a permanent, profess polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and political is
Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a me majority of the public can express their opinions o Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social is a means through which public opinion can influ debate.
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alterna 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Fax: +9411 2370475

independent social research organisation, which conomic and political issues.
oard of Directors of the Centre for Policy as established in September 1999, and filled a r a permanent, professional and independent a on social and political issues.
of empowerment, a means by which the silent express their opinions on issues affecting them. t surveys on key social issues, thereby providing public opinion can influence the public policy
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org