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An Opinion Poll On Peace
Peace Confidence Index (P
TOP-LINE RESULTS
© 2003 Social Indicator ● Centre for Po
Septe

pinion Poll On Peace
ace Confidence Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
Social Indicator
September 2003
ndicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives

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W
hile many studies have been conducted this conflict, none have attempted to public perception over a period of time. The la identified as a significant void by Social Indicator unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The stu monthly to gauge the impact of local and developments on public attitudes towards the pea
This report was prepared with funds provided by:
The Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) un Governance and Institutional Strengthening Project, (GISP) Sri L
The U.S. Agency for International Development under the O Transition Initiatives (OTI), Sri Lanka.

W
es have been conducted on various aspects of ne have attempted to capture the changes in period of time. The lack of such a study was void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research olicy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence o fill this lacuna. The study will be conducted bi- impact of local and international political ttitudes towards the peace process.
rovided by:
ent Agency (CIDA) under the ning Project, (GISP) Sri Lanka.
evelopment under the Office of

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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
E
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
(PCI) T
OP
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX -L
INE
R
ESULTS
PERCEPTIONS OF WAR AND PEACE
SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT
CONFIDENCE
THE PEACE PROCESS
I
NTERNATIONAL
F
ACILITATION
N
ORWEGIAN
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
I
NDIA
’
S
I
NVOLVEMENT
• R
ECENT
P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION
F
EDERAL
S
OLUTION
T
HE
M
USLIM
C
OMMUNITY
I
NTERIM
A
DMINISTRATION
S
ITUATION IN
T
RINCOMALEE
DEMONSTRATION
• A
NNEX

ex
01 I
TERNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
02 E
05 I
DEX
(PCI) 11
ND PEACE 11
NFLICT 15
17
21
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
22
ION
23
25
D
VELOPMENTS
26
MISSION 26
29
Y
38
N
41
ALEE
48
50
er 2003

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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a n
public confidence in the peace process using a set of stand
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of q
economic and political developments in order to gauge pub
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide
useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity
opinions of the public are given due importance and incorpora
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire a
interviews amongst a 1,425 respondent sample. The 17 adm
provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern province
control of the Amparai, Batticoloa, Trincomalee and Vavuniya
to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the dis
surveyed.
Fourteen waves of the PCI study were conducted in
November 2001 and January, March, May, July, Sept
January, March, May and July 2003. The latest wave w
2003. This publication presents only the top-line results of the
The results of these fifteen waves offer us data for a comp
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war
the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

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INTRODUCTION
. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
ess using a set of standardised questions which remain
her is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process,
ne wave to another.
riod of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
f the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective
portance and incorporated into the policy debate.
uctured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
ent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven
nd the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government
rincomalee and Vavuniya were surveyed. Data is weighted
composition of the districts in which the sample was
y were conducted in May, June, September and
arch, May, July, September, November 2002 and
03. The latest wave was conducted in September
the top-line results of the September 2003 survey.
ffer us data for a comparative study on changing public
from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of
3% margin of error.

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPME 2003
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga, who accuses Prime Min nation on a controversial peace deal with the LTTE, has a August 2003)-(Daily Mirror (Gulf News on Aug 5))
• In a bid to get the stalled peace process back on track, Ja Tetsuro Yano, who is in Sri Lanka on a two-day visit said been resumed even after two months since the Tokyo con to the negotiating table ending its boycott. (3 August 2003)-(
• While Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) political declared that the camp the LTTE had set up at Kurangupanj area, SLMM deputy chief Hagrup Haukland says he cannot a August 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)
• The LTTE is insisting on its right to fly its flag at special eve LTTE's Vavuniya leader Elilalan reportedly said at a meeting and other parties had the right to fly their flags at party m could not do the same. (5 August 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• Interior Minister John Amaratunga who visited Jaffna tod obstructed from seeking entry to the Jaffna kachcheri by Mirror)
• The LTTE has announced it is willing to resume talks with South accepted its Interim Administration proposal and foll Mirror)
• The LTTE today made clear their refusal to vacate the cont August 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• As security forces and special police teams were on alert area, police yesterday re-imposed a night curfew in Trincom following the killing of two SLMC supporters. (15 August 200
• Security was stepped up in Muttur today following new inte and Muslims, officials said. (17 August 2003)-(AFP/www.theaca
• The ground situation in Eastern Trincomalee is 'deceptive according to former Foreign Minister Lakshm (http://sify.com/news/international/fullstory.php?id=13226954)
• Following a crisis meeting of top security officials and after with Minister and SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem in Colomb additional security and defuse tension in Amparai and S Deputy Inspector General Neville Wijesinghe. (19 August 20
• An angry Minister and SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem today hit Ferial Ashraff over the current tension in the East at a new (19 August 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
• As the tension grew in the Trincomalee district over the Unity Alliance Leader Ferial Ashraff warned today that Mus the government remained silent on the attacks and intimida (Daily Mirror)
• Following requests by people and religious leaders Presiden Northern and Eastern provinces if the government continu community in the Eastern province according to Presidentia (Daily Mirror)
• LTTE chief peace negotiator Anton Balasingham will not att LTTE spokesman said Balasingham's poor health had preve 2003)-(Daily News)
• A twelve-member LTTE team led by political wing leader hours this morning via the Bandaranaike International Airp Administration in the North and East. Government official two helicopters from Killinochchi and (AP/www.theacademic.org/www.lankapage.com)
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ONAL DEVELOPMENTS AUGUST 2003-SEPTEMBER
who accuses Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe of misleading the eal with the LTTE, has asked for clarifications on the latest deal. (1 s on Aug 5)) rocess back on track, Japan's senior vice minister for foreign affairs, on a two-day visit said he was concerned that peace talks had not ths since the Tokyo conference and today urged the LTTE to return oycott. (3 August 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
Eelam (LTTE) political wing leader S.P. Thamilselvan categorically ad set up at Kurangupanjan in Kinniya is situated in a LTTE-controlled aukland says he cannot accept Thamilselvan’s statement as official. (5
o fly its flag at special events in government-controlled Vavuniya. The ortedly said at a meeting with SLMM and military officers that the JVP fly their flags at party meetings and he saw no reason why the LTTE 003)-(Daily Mirror) a who visited Jaffna today on a goodwill tour had reportedly been the Jaffna kachcheri by a pro-LTTE group. (10 August 2003)-(Daily
ing to resume talks with the government provided the people in the tration proposal and follow the path of peace. (11 August 2003)-(Daily
efusal to vacate the controversial Kinniya camp in Manirasakulam. (13
ce teams were on alert to avert major incidents in the Trincomalee a night curfew in Trincomalee, Muttur, Toppur and Serunuwara areas upporters. (15 August 2003)-(Daily Mirror) today following new inter-communal clashes between minority Tamils st 2003)-(AFP/www.theacademic.org) rincomalee is 'deceptively grave' which could affect Indian interests, gn Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar. (18 August 2003)-
tory.php?id=13226954) ecurity officials and after Defence Minister Tilak Marapana held talks auff Hakeem in Colombo, the army today was called in to provide nsion in Amparai and Samanthurai, according to Eastern Province
ijesinghe. (19 August 2003)-(Daily Mirror) r Rauff Hakeem today hit out at the LTTE, the SLMM and NUA leader sion in the East at a news conference in the Parliamentary complex.
malee district over the killing of two more Muslim youths, National f warned today that Muslim youth might be forced to take to arms if the attacks and intimidation of Muslims in the East. (19 August 2003)-
religious leaders President Chandrika Kumaratunga will de-merge the the government continued to fail in providing security to the Muslim according to Presidential Spokesman Harim Peiris. (20 August 2003)-
Balasingham will not attend the Paris meeting of its legal experts. An 's poor health had prevented him from travelling to Paris. (20 August
by political wing leader S.P. Thamilselvan left for Paris in the early anaike International Airport to finalize the proposals for an Interim ast. Government officials said the LTTE team arrived in Colombo in Killinochchi and Batticoloa. (20 August 2003)- page.com)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Militant Muslim youth are receiving weapons training and despatched abroad for the same purpose, informed sources the community to defend itself against onslaught by the LTT Island on August 21)
• A Police curfew was imposed today evening in Kalmunai an arisen after two Muslim youths were abducted allegedly by t night. (21 August 2003)-(Daily Mirror on August 22)
• Intelligence sources in the Eastern Province confirmed the cadres. They added that their units have already reporte movements of these groups which are undergoing training in t According to residents of the area, these groups are identify Osama and Jehad groups. (23 August 2003)-(Sunday Times on Au
• The Army has ordered that farmers who are allowed to do cu high security zone in Thenamarachchi division should obtain lands, and that the military identity cards already issued a accepted. (22 August 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Aug 23/www.tamilne
• An LTTE front organisation in Trincomalee has called upon hartal today. The organisation, calling itself the Trincomalee R it was the duty of every 'Tamil-speaking person' including M hardship, to thwart all attempts by anti-peace elements to sab (Daily Mirror on Aug 25)
• The SLFP today expressed its grave concern over the spate Muslims by the LTTE in the East, while blaming the SLMM, th for failing to take effective action. (25 August 2003)-(Daily Mirro
• Thousands of Muslims and Sinhalese staged a hartal yesterda LTTE and called for the resignation of Sri Lanka Muslim Cong said. (27 August 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Aug 28)
• Assuring President Chandrika Kumaratunga that the governm LTTE camp in Manirasakulam removed, Prime Minister Ranil W the basis of political expediency at a time like this, is in his vie 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Sept 3)
• Despite the breakdown in talks over the proposed alliance be the People's Alliance on Friday September 5, the JVP today talks recommencing between the two parties again in (http://www.theacademic.org/stories/10629286140/story.shtml)
• Thamilselvan, the political leader of the LTTE met with the Parliament and Shadow Foreign Secretary, Mr. Michael Ancr treasurer of the British Conservative party, in Colombo on S the British High Commission in Colombo and not of the LTTE 2003)-(www.theacademic.org)
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) today began con received from people regarding taxes imposed and goods co the SLMM liaison office in Killinochchi received informal c crossed the Omanthai checkpoint, regarding taxes imposed a Agnes Bragadottir said today. (10 September 2003)-(Daily Mirro
• Cabinet spokesman and government chief negotiator G.L. Peir no threat to the Eastern province or the port of Trincomale the opposition of trying to create fear or panic among the pe Sep 12)
• Chief government negotiator G.L Peiris expressed confidenc shortly while expecting a response from the LTTE this Administrative Structure in the Northeast and added that it issue might arise out of a Federal structure. (11 September 200
• Japan’s special peace envoy Yasushi Akashi today admitte “frustrated” over the delay in resuming stalled peace talks and negotiations. (11 September 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Sep 12)
• A high-powered United States military team has declared tha secured by the security forces from the LTTE if this strategic "vulnerable position that currently exists could essentially leve the team has said, "without control of this area the defence losing battle." (13 September 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Sep 14)
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3
g weapons training and some are even believed to have been pose, informed sources said today. This is part of the strategy for st onslaught by the LTTE, the sources said. (20 August 2003)-(The
evening in Kalmunai and Samanthurai to defuse tension that had e abducted allegedly by the LTTE at Saindamarudhu on August 19 n August 22)
Province confirmed the emergence of organised armed Muslim ts have already reported information about the existence and e undergoing training in the use of Chinese-made T-56 assault rifles. these groups are identifying themselves as Mujahadeen, Al-Queda,
003)-(Sunday Times on Aug 24) ho are allowed to do cultivation in the released paddy fields in the i division should obtain fresh military identity cards to enter their cards already issued and national identity cards would not be or on Aug 23/www.tamilnet.org) comalee has called upon all 'Tamil-speaking people' to observe a itself the Trincomalee Resurgence Tamil Community (TRTC) said king person' including Muslims who have been undergoing severe ti-peace elements to sabotage the peace process. (24 August 2003)-
concern over the spate of killings, abductions and intimidation of ile blaming the SLMM, the government and Minister Rauff Hakeem August 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Aug 26) staged a hartal yesterday morning against the government and the f Sri Lanka Muslim Congress Leader Rauff Hakeem, Ampara police Aug 28) atunga that the government is pursuing with every effort to get the d, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has told her that acting on time like this, is in his view, not the correct approach. (1 September
the proposed alliance between the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna and ember 5, the JVP today expressed confidence in the possibility of two parties again in the due course. (7 September 2003)- 29286140/story.shtml) the LTTE met with the Deputy leader of the opposition in British retary, Mr. Michael Ancram, M.P., and Lord Ashcroft, the former party, in Colombo on September 4, had been on the initiative of mbo and not of the LTTE, according to sources today. (8 September
SLMM) today began conducting inquiries into informal complaints s imposed and goods confiscated by the LTTE. On September 10, chi received informal complaints from several people who had garding taxes imposed and goods confiscated, SLMM spokesperson tember 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Sep 11) chief negotiator G.L. Peiris told a news conference today there was the port of Trincomalee as claimed in some reports and accused r or panic among the people. (11 September 2003)-(Daily Mirror on
iris expressed confidence today that peace talks would be revived e from the LTTE this month to its proposals for an Interim theast and added that it is likely that a final solution to the ethnic
cture. (11 September 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Sep 12) i Akashi today admitted that the international community was ng stalled peace talks and said it was up to the LTTE to get back to aily Mirror on Sep 12)
y team has declared that land areas south of Trincomalee must be the LTTE if this strategic port is to be protected. Warning that the ists could essentially level the majority of the Sri Lanka Navy fleet," of this area the defence of Trincomalee harbour will always be a aily Mirror on Sep 14) er 2003

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Japanese special envoy Yasushi Akashi today urged the govern soon in a bid to create a "speedy and substantial" progress in t community. (14 September 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Sep 15)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga in a letter to Prime Mini that the truth about Trincomalee was being "concealed and upon the Premier to allow the security forces commander harassment". (14 September 2003)-(Daily Mirror of Sep 15)
• Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgessen and No last morning on a three-day visit to discuss plans for reviving and the LTTE and are due to travel today to its headquarter 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Sep 19)
• Nine Thai police officers face investigations over allegedly su the kingdom in May, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra Mirror on Sep 19)
• The Norwegian facilitators today met Prime Minister Ranil W inform him that the LTTE would submit its counter propos middle of October 2003, a Norwegian Embassy official said. (1
• The LTTE has banned the government-sponsored Nation September 30 in Jaffna. The LTTE has conveyed its position t all the coaches sent by the Sports Ministry for training to leav Mirror on Sep 21)
• While hospitals in other parts of the country are crippled b workers in the Jaffna, Batticoloa and Vavuniya General Hospi said LTTE regional leader Illanpirai had ordered Jaffna Teachin immediately and warned that if they failed LTTE cadres w services. (23 September 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Sep 24)
• During a top level meeting between SLMM and LTTE in Killin The LTTE today pledged to cooperate with the SLMM by sett in dealing with reported violations, the SLMM said. (28 Septem
• New US envoy Jeffrey J. Lunstead has presented his credent Kumaratunga at President's House. (28 September 2003)-(Daily
• Addressing a seminar in Trincomalee today, President Al constituent parties in the Tamil National Alliance - A. Vinaya were a disappointed a lot today even after the signing of the c internally displaced families were now languishing in refugee forces refused to allow them to resettle in their own lands an on Sep 30)
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i today urged the government and the LTTE to resume peace talks substantial" progress in the assistance provided by the international ily Mirror on Sep 15)
a letter to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe today charged as being "concealed and distorted" by the government. She called urity forces commanders to carry out their duties "without any aily Mirror of Sep 15)
Vidar Helgessen and Norway's special envoy Erik Solheim arrived iscuss plans for reviving face-to-face talks between the government today to its headquarters in northern Killinochchi. (18 September
gations over allegedly supplying arms to LTTE contacts arrested in ister Thaksin Shinawatra said today. (18 September 2003)-(AFP/Daily
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe at Temple Trees to officially bmit its counter proposals on the Interim Administration by the n Embassy official said. (19 September 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Sep 20)
ment-sponsored National Peace Sports Festival scheduled for s conveyed its position to the organisers of the festival and wanted nistry for training to leave the peninsula. (20 September 2003)-(Daily
e country are crippled by a strike, the LTTE has ordered striking Vavuniya General Hospitals to return to work immediately. Police d ordered Jaffna Teaching Hospital employees to get back to work y failed LTTE cadres would be brought in to maintain hospital
irror on Sep 24) SLMM and LTTE in Killinochchi to discuss problems faced by them, e with the SLMM by setting up liaison officers in each political office e SLMM said. (28 September 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Sep 29) as presented his credentials to President, Chandrika Bandaranaike
8 September 2003)-(Daily Mirror on Sep 29) lee today, President All Ceylon Tamil Congress - one of the ional Alliance - A. Vinayagamoorthy today said the people of Jaffna after the signing of the ceasefire agreement and added thousands of w languishing in refugee camps and welfare centres as the security ttle in their own lands and homes. (29 September 2003)-(Daily Mirror
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CO
S
EPTEMBER TO
11TH O
CTOB
♦ There is an increase in the uncertainty as to when ther
(60.4% in July 2003 to 64.5% in September 2003). This from the Sinhala (65.8% in July 2003 to 66.5% in Septem July 2003 to 68.6% in September 2003) and Muslim September 2003) communities. There is a steady declin come soon, from 19.3% in May 2003 to 11.9% in Septem mainly from the Tamil (62.1% in July 2003 to 25. Muslim (32.7% in July 2003 to 19.9% in Septembe Page 13)
♦ A majority (84.6%) continue to believe that Peace Talks
have peace in Sri Lanka. (Ref. Page 15)
♦ Sri Lankans believe that the lack of political will (44.2%) Political Leaders (32.5%) are the top two reasons why t the war for the last 15 years. 56.4% of the Tamil com Corrupt Military and Political Leaders is the rea solution, which is an increase from 41.2% in July community believe that the Lack of political will is the r solution. (Ref. Page 16)
♦ There is a steady decline in the opinion that the Govern through talks from 53.9% in May 2003 to 44% in Septem community believe that the Government is com talks, a decline from 73.6% in July 2003. (Ref. Page
♦ 50.3% of Sri Lankans believe that the LTTE is not comm
which is an increase from 44.9% in May 2003. The Musl divided opinion when it comes to the LTTE’s commitm 29.9% of the Muslim community believe that the LTTE that the LTTE is not committed. 75.9% of the Tamil com committed which is a decline from July 2003 (79.5%). (R
♦ There is a decline in the belief that the Government go
commitment to peace from 40.2% in July 2003 to 34.6% that the Government goes in for talks due to the realisa has increased from 20.7% in July 2003 to 29.2% in Septe opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala commun 28.3% in September 2003). 50.9% of the Tamil co Government goes in for talks due to Economic H from 31.1% in July 2003. (Ref. Page 19)
♦ 35.3% of Sri Lankans believe that the LTTE goes in for t
an increase in the belief that the LTTE goes in for talks
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ndex
E OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
30TH ER TO
11TH O
CTOBER
2003
ertainty as to when there will be peace in Sri Lanka
September 2003). This increase in opinion stems mainly 2003 to 66.5% in September 2003), Tamil (24.7% in mber 2003) and Muslim (45% in July 2003 to 50.1% in . There is a steady decline in the opinion that peace will
2003 to 11.9% in September 2003. This decline stems .1% in July 2003 to 25.3% in September 2003) and to 19.9% in September 2003) communities. (Ref.
believe that Peace Talks is the way to end the war and age 15)
k of political will (44.2%) and Corrupt Military and e top two reasons why there hasn’t been a solution to 6.4% of the Tamil community believe that cal Leaders is the reason there hasn’t been a se from 41.2% in July 2003. 55.5% of the Tamil ck of political will is the reason there hasn’t been a
opinion that the Government is committed to find peace ay 2003 to 44% in September 2003. 51.6% of the Tamil e Government is committed to find peace through
in July 2003. (Ref. Page 17)
at the LTTE is not committed to find peace through talks, % in May 2003. The Muslim community seems to have a to the LTTE’s commitment to find peace through talks. ty believe that the LTTE is committed while 30.6% feel d. 75.9% of the Tamil community believe that the LTTE is rom July 2003 (79.5%). (Ref. Page 18)
that the Government goes in for talks due to its .2% in July 2003 to 34.6% in September 2003. The belief or talks due to the realisation that this war cannot be won ly 2003 to 29.2% in September 2003. This increase in
the Sinhala community (18.3% in July 2003 to 50.9% of the Tamil community believes that the lks due to Economic Hardship, which is an increase
f. Page 19)
at the LTTE goes in for talks to fool the people. There is e LTTE goes in for talks due to the realisation that this
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
war cannot be won (21.9% in July 2003 to 26.6% in Sep International Pressure is the reason why the LTTE goes from 22.1% in July 2003. This decline in opinion stems m July 2003 to 17.5% in September 2003), Tamil (36% in September 2003) and Muslim (39.6% in July 2003 to communities. (Ref. Page 20)
♦ 22% believe in the widest range of involvement in nego
that only the Government and the LTTE should be invo to the other communities, 55.5% of the Muslim commu of involvement. This is a decline from 60% in July 2003. community 35.8% believe that only the Governm third party should be involved, which is a signific (17.2%). (Ref. Page 21)
♦ 56.9% of Sri Lankans believe that an international third positive impact or is essential for the peace process. In international third party’s involvement is not essential. W communities (Tamil – 73.6%, Muslim – 55.6%, Up-coun third party’s involvement is essential, 24% of the Sinhala (Ref. Page 22)
♦ While 36% of Sri Lankans approve of Norway assisting
33% disapprove. While a majority (37.7%) of the Sinhala Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan Peace Process, a ma Muslim (53.6%) and Up-country Tamil (85.8%) commun 23)
♦ Sri Lankans seem to have a divided opinion with regard facilitate talks (Approve – 33.8%, Disapprove – 31.9%). and Up-country Tamil (80.8%) communities approve of talks. The Muslim community seem to have a divided op 39.7% approve of Norway continuing to facilitate talks 35.4% of the Sinhala community, however, disapprove o
♦ 55.3% of Sri Lankans believe that India’s involvement in
positive impact or is essential. On the contrary, 17.9% b not essential. While a majority (30.5%) of the Sinhala co involvement will have a positive impact on the Sri Lanka the Tamil (47.2%), Muslim (57.3%) and Up-country Tam that India’s involvement is essential. (Ref. Page 25)
♦ Of those aware of the involvement of foreign monitors
believe such a monitoring mission will have a positive im Ceasefire Agreement (CFA), which is an increase since stems mainly the Sinhala community (30.9% in July 2003
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ndex
uly 2003 to 26.6% in September 2003). 17.9% believe that ason why the LTTE goes in for talks, which is a decline ecline in opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala (19.9% in er 2003), Tamil (36% in July 2003 to 10.9% in
(39.6% in July 2003 to 25.5% in September 2003)
e of involvement in negotiations. However, 13.9% believe the LTTE should be involved in negotiations. Compared % of the Muslim community believe in the widest range e from 60% in July 2003. Within the Tamil hat only the Government, LTTE and International ved, which is a significant increase since July 2003
at an international third party’s involvement will have a or the peace process. In contrast 19.2% believe that an lvement is not essential. While a majority of the minority uslim – 55.6%, Up-country Tamil - 62.5%) believe that a ential, 24% of the Sinhala community believe the same.
ove of Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan Peace Process, rity (37.7%) of the Sinhala community disapprove of kan Peace Process, a majority of the Tamil (84.9%), y Tamil (85.8%) communities approve of this. (Ref. Page
ided opinion with regard to Norway continuing to %, Disapprove – 31.9%). A majority of the Tamil (77.7%) communities approve of Norway continuing to facilitate eem to have a divided opinion with regard to this, where tinuing to facilitate talks and 31.5% disapprove of this. y, however, disapprove of this. (Ref. Page 24)
at India’s involvement in the peace process will have a On the contrary, 17.9% believe that India’s involvement is
(30.5%) of the Sinhala community believe that India’s e impact on the Sri Lankan peace process, a majority of 3%) and Up-country Tamil (72.4%) communities believe ntial. (Ref. Page 25)
ent of foreign monitors in monitoring the ceasefire, 32% ion will have a positive impact on the success of the
hich is an increase since July 2003 (27.2%). This increase unity (30.9% in July 2003 to 36% in September 2003). The
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Tamil (86.7%), Muslim (54.5%) and Up-country Tamil (8 such a monitoring mission is essential. (Ref. Page 26)
♦ 43.6% believe that the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SL monitoring of the CFA. This is a significant increase fro increase stems mainly from the Sinhala (35.1% in September 2003) and Muslim (20.1% in July 2003 2003) communities. A majority of the Tamil (56.6%) communities, however, believe that the SLMM is impart (Ref. Page 27)
♦ There is a steady increase in the belief that the SLMM is the CFA from 29.4% in May 2003 to 40.7% in Septembe mainly from the Sinhala (37.3% in July 2003 to 45 Muslim (16.8% in July 2003 to 36.6% in Septembe However, a majority of the Tamil (54.8%) and Up-coun believe the contrary, i.e. the SLMM is effective in its mo 28)
♦ Of those aware that the Government and the LTTE hav committed to finding a solution based on federalism wit disapprove of this agreement, while 28.8% approve of it decline in the Tamil community’s approval of th July 2003 to 79.5% in September 2003. However increase in the Muslim community’s approval of in July 2003 to 53.2% in September 2003. (Ref. Pag
♦ 21.9% believe that a federal system is the best way of go
opinion is held mainly by the Tamil (73.6%), Muslim (68 (63.9%) communities. 54.9% of the Sinhala community e 26.1% express their uncertainty. (Ref. Page 30)
♦ In September 2003, 41.8% believe that a federal state w stems mainly from the Sinhala community (47.1%). How of the Muslim and 49.2% of the Up-country Tamil comm federal state will lead to secession. (Ref. Page 31)
♦ 43.2% of Sri Lankans believe that Tamils will have more structure. However, 52.6% do not believe that Sinhales federal structure and 45.8% do not believe that Muslim Page 32 to Page 34)
♦ A majority of the Tamil (66.6%), Muslim (40.2%) and Up
communities believe that within a federal structure eve 52.9% of the Sinhala community do not believe that eve Page 35)
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ndex
and Up-country Tamil (80.9%) communities believe that ssential. (Ref. Page 26)
a Monitoring Mission (SLMM) is not impartial in its a significant increase from 31.3% in July 2003. This the Sinhala (35.1% in July 2003 to 48.3% in lim (20.1% in July 2003 to 37.8% in September rity of the Tamil (56.6%) and Up-country Tamil (66.9%)
that the SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of the CFA.
e belief that the SLMM is not effective in its monitoring of 03 to 40.7% in September 2003. This increase stems 7.3% in July 2003 to 45% in September 2003) and to 36.6% in September 2003) communities. mil (54.8%) and Up-country Tamil (71.8%) communities MM is effective in its monitoring of the CFA. (Ref. Page
rnment and the LTTE have announced that they are based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka, 45% while 28.8% approve of it. There is a significant
unity’s approval of this agreement from 94.1% in mber 2003. However, there is a significant
munity’s approval of this agreement from 39.1% tember 2003. (Ref. Page 29)
tem is the best way of governing this country. This amil (73.6%), Muslim (68.1%) and Up-country Tamil f the Sinhala community express their disagreement while y. (Ref. Page 30)
eve that a federal state will lead to secession. This opinion community (47.1%). However, 68.4% of the Tamil, 52.7%
Up-country Tamil communities do not believe that a ion. (Ref. Page 31)
at Tamils will have more benefits within a federal not believe that Sinhalese will have more benefits within a
not believe that Muslims will have more benefits. (Ref.
), Muslim (40.2%) and Up-country Tamil (43%) n a federal structure everyone will equally benefit, while y do not believe that everyone will benefit equally. (Ref.
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ 30.7% say they will agree with a federal solution if it is a Lankans in comparison to 37.6% who say they will disag not sure. A majority of the Tamil (80.9%), Muslim (4 (58.9%) communities say they will agree with a federal majority of Sri Lankans, while a majority of the Sinhala c disagree. (Ref. Page 36)
♦ A majority (65.2%) do not think that people are being a federalism. This opinion stems mainly from 70.9% of the the Tamil community. The Muslim and Up-country Tam opinion when it comes to people being adequately infor Agree – 39.3%, Disagree – 37.2%; Up-country Tamil: A disagree – 33.4%, Disagree – 30.8%). (Ref. Page 37)
♦ There is a steady increase in the belief that the interest Muslims are not being adequately represented in the pe to 32.7% in September 2003. This opinion stems mainly (73.1%). However, the Tamil (54.5%) and Up-count believe that the interest and concerns of the Eastern M represented in the peace talks. The Sinhala community regard (Yes - 25.4%, No – 31.6%, Don’t know/Not sure
♦ 66.6% of the Muslim community believe the current ina interest and concerns of the Eastern Muslims in the pea impact on the peace process. 41.9% of the Sinhala comm country Tamil community who responded to this quest the impact on the peace process with regard to the deg Eastern Muslims. 24.7% of the Sinhala community and 2 community believe that the current representation will peace process. Looking at the Tamil community, their o where 28% believe that the current representation will uncertain about its impact on the peace process. (Ref. P
♦ 47% believe that there should be a separate Muslim del
is an increase from 38.1% in July 2003. A majority of (48.3%), Muslim (94.6%) and Up-country Tamil ( that there should be a separate Muslim delegatio Page 40)
♦ A majority (67.3%) is aware that the Government and t interim administration for the North East province. 54. the Up-country Tamil communities are unaware that th contemplating an interim administration for the North
♦ Of those who are aware that the Government and the interim administration for the North East province, 52. the issue of interim administration, while 41.5% are not
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003

ndex
a federal solution if it is approved by a majority of Sri % who say they will disagree. 18.2% don’t know or are mil (80.9%), Muslim (46.2%) and Up-country Tamil
will agree with a federal solution if it is approved by a majority of the Sinhala community (41.9%) say they will
k that people are being adequately informed about mainly from 70.9% of the Sinhala community and 38.1% of slim and Up-country Tamil communities have a divided ple being adequately informed about federalism. (Muslim: 2%; Up-country Tamil: Agree – 30.6%, Neither agree nor 0.8%). (Ref. Page 37)
e belief that the interests and concerns of the Eastern ely represented in the peace talks from 26.5% in May 2003 his opinion stems mainly from the Muslim community l (54.5%) and Up-country Tamil (44.1%) communities
ncerns of the Eastern Muslims are being adequately . The Sinhala community have a divided opinion in this
%, Don’t know/Not sure – 34.2%). (Ref. Page 38)
ty believe the current inadequate representation of the astern Muslims in the peace talks will have a negative
1.9% of the Sinhala community and 41.8% of the Up- responded to this question are unable to comment on ss with regard to the degree of representation of the Sinhala community and 20.6% of the Up-country Tamil rrent representation will have a negative impact on the Tamil community, their opinion seems to be divided, rrent representation will have no impact, while 29.8% are he peace process. (Ref. Page 39)
be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace talks, which ly 2003. A majority of the Sinhala (42.7%), Tamil d Up-country Tamil (57.5%) communities believe
rate Muslim delegation to the peace talks. (Ref.
at the Government and the LTTE are contemplating an North East province. 54.1% of the Muslim and 57.7% of
ities are unaware that the Government and the LTTE are nistration for the North East province. (Ref. Page 41)
he Government and the LTTE are contemplating an North East province, 52.2% are somewhat informed about tion, while 41.5% are not informed. Looking at the ethnic
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
perspective, a majority of the Tamil (71.1%), Muslim (69 (78.7%) communities are somewhat informed about the The Sinhala community have a divided opinion in this re 48.8%, Not informed – 46.7%). (Ref. Page 42)
♦ When asked through which medium they received thei administration, 47.3% stated that it was through televisi through newspapers. 10.7% stated that they received th radio. A majority of the Sinhala community (51%) receiv administration through television, while 26.4% received The Tamil community, however, received information m (45.2%) as well as through television (41.5%). The Musli information through television (31.5%), newspapers (28 medium through which the Up-country Tamil communi about the interim administration, was through the radio television (20.7%) and newspapers (18.7%). (Ref. Page 4
♦ 57.3% disagree with the setting up of an interim adminis while 28.4% agree with it. A majority of the Sinhala com setting up of an interim administration for the North an Muslim community express their uncertainty in this reg the Tamil (89.5%) and Up-country Tamil (71.3%) Muslim community agree with the setting up of an inter and East. (Ref. Page 44)
♦ 30.1% believe in the largest range of involvement when
administration. This opinion stems mainly from the Sinh communities. 23.2% of Sri Lankans believe that only the this opinion stems mainly from the Tamil community (5
♦ While 45.9% agree with the LTTE playing a dominant ro
40.3% disagree. Looking at the ethnic perspective the S communities disagree with the LTTE playing a dominan administration, while the Tamil (71.2%) and Up-coun communities agree. (Ref. Page 46)
♦ Of those who are aware that the President wrote to th
concern over the LTTE threat to the Trincomalee Nav the President’s concern. This opinion stems mainly from (86.6%) communities. 17.3% do not share the President mainly from the Tamil (87.6%) and Up-country Tam Page 49)
♦ Of those who are aware (67.8%) that the National Bhik campaign protesting against the establishment of an inte the North East province, on the 17th of September 200 campaign. This opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala c
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003

ndex
amil (71.1%), Muslim (69.6%) and Up-country Tamil what informed about the issue of interim administration. divided opinion in this regard (Somewhat informed – . (Ref. Page 42)
edium they received their information about the interim
at it was through television, while 28.6% stated that it was ted that they received their information through the
community (51%) received information about the interim on, while 26.4% received information through newspapers.
r, received information mainly through newspapers vision (41.5%). The Muslim community received (31.5%), newspapers (28.4%) and radio (17.7%). The main -country Tamil community received their information, n, was through the radio (36.9%), while others stated ers (18.7%). (Ref. Page 43)
up of an interim administration for the North and East, ajority of the Sinhala community (70.6%) disagree with the stration for the North and East, while 50.1% of the
ir uncertainty in this regard. However, a majority of country Tamil (71.3%) communities and 34.2% of the the setting up of an interim administration for the North
ge of involvement when it comes to the interim ems mainly from the Sinhala (46.5%) and Muslim (66.5%) ans believe that only the LTTE should be involved and the Tamil community (52.8%). (Ref. Page 45)
TE playing a dominant role in the interim administration, ethnic perspective the Sinhala (67.1%) and Muslim (75.5%) LTTE playing a dominant role in the interim il (71.2%) and Up-country Tamil (78.8%)
6)
he President wrote to the Prime Minister expressing her to the Trincomalee Naval Base and Harbour, 82.7% share pinion stems mainly from the Sinhala (88.4%) and Muslim
not share the President’s concern and this opinion stems ) and Up-country Tamil (69.3%) communities. (Ref.
%) that the National Bhikku Front (NBF) held a Satyagraha e establishment of an interim administrative structure for
e 17th of September 2003, 52.7% approve of the
ainly from the Sinhala community (59.4%). However,
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
30.6% disapprove of the campaign and this stems mainly Muslim (80.4%) and Up-country Tamil (82%) com
♦ Of those who are aware (52.8%) that a new organisatio Movement (PNM) was formed comprising of several po MEP and some religious organisations, 31% don’t know of this on the peace process. 28.8% believe that this wil 21.2% believe that this will have a positive impact. 19% impact on the peace process. Looking at the Sinhala com seems to be a divided opinion with regard to the impac a positive impact – 23.6%, Will have no impact – 19.2% 23.9%, Don’t know/Not sure – 31%). (Ref. Page 53)
♦ Of those who are aware that the PNM has held a marc against the establishment of an interim administrative st 31.6% believe that this will have a negative impact on th believe that this will have no impact on the peace proce positive impact. 20.8% don’t know or are unsure. While communities (Tamil – 63.1%, Muslim – 59.6%, Up-coun this march will have a negative impact on the peace pro a divided opinion in this regard (Will have a positive im – 23.8%, Will have a negative impact – 27.4%, Don’t kn 55)
For further information please
Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Pe
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternativ
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@dia Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www

ndex
ign and this stems mainly from the Tamil (84%), ntry Tamil (82%) communities. (Ref. Page 51)
%) that a new organisation called the Patriotic National
comprising of several political parties including the JVP, isations, 31% don’t know or are unsure about the impact 8.8% believe that this will have a negative impact, while e a positive impact. 19% believe that this will have no ooking at the Sinhala community perceptions, there with regard to the impact on the peace process (Will have l have no impact – 19.2%, Will have a negative impact –
31%). (Ref. Page 53)
he PNM has held a march, from Kandy to Colombo,
interim administrative structure for the North and East, e a negative impact on the peace process. While 24.3%
pact on the peace process, 23.3% believe this will have a ow or are unsure. While a majority of the minority uslim – 59.6%, Up-country Tamil – 74.1%) believe that impact on the peace process, the Sinhala community have (Will have a positive impact – 25.9%, Will have no impact mpact – 27.4%, Don’t know/Not sure – 21.9%). (Ref. Page
er information please contact:
ma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator ntre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 70475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
er 2003
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDE
M
AY
2001 – S
EPTEMBER
2
T
HE
P
ERCEPTION OF
W
AR AND
P
EACE
What does ‘peace’ mean to you? [Multiple Ans
National Trend
70
63 60
54
53.9
49.2
46.1
21.6
May '01 September
'01
52.7
54.5
50.6
50.5 50
47.2
44.9
10.4
14.9
41.4
40
37.5 36.4
35.8
42. %
0
36.7
34.7
35.9
35 34.7
30
24.7 35.7
32
29.3
29
34.7
35
34.
25.9
Ethnic Breakdown
22.7
31.2
20
25.4
16.7
10
15.3 16.2
11.2
18.3
15.5
14.9
12. 9.8
January '02 May '02 September
'02
Januar
9.8
Up-country Tamil
38.4
45.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
65.4 7.8
31.6
Muslim
33.5
13.4
50.2
8 13.7
46.5
Tamil
52.5
73.6 53.4
Sinhala

C
ONFIDENCE
(PCI)
2001 – S
EPTEMBER
2003
D
P
EACE
to you? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
50.6
50.5
51.9
End of war
44.9
43.7
Ethnic Harmony
32.4
Feeling Safe 23.5
15.5
14.9
Freedom
c Breakdown
53.4
50.2
54.3 47.2
47.8
41.4
36.4
35.8
42.7
39
34.7
35
34.1
31
38.2
43.3
39.9
31.2
27.6
17.7
18.2
16.2 15.3
2 September
'02
16.7
12.6
January '03 May '03 September
'03
65.4
52.5
.6
Freedom
81.6
Feeling safe
.5
Ethnic Harmony
73.6
End of war
0 60 70 80 90
3
I
NDEX
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What does ‘war’ mean to you? [Multiple Answe
National Breakdown
70
60
3.5
June '01 November
'01
54.4 60.2
58.9
57.8
55.9
56.2
51.3
50.8 50
39.6
43.1
42.8
40
%
30
27.1
30.3
24.5
23.9
25.2 27.4
27.7
30.1
22.9
22.3 15
8.7
Ethnic Breakdown
3.2
26.4
26.2
26 22.9
20.3 21.5 18.2
21.2
25.7
23.6
20
21.5
17.1
16.7
16.2 16.2 10
16.8
12.4
12.3
10.9
9.8
12.9
16.4 11.4
16.6
15.8
15.6
11.1
0.3
7.8
8.6
3.5
3.3
9.4
13.2
8.7 9.9
10.1
0
2.7
3.5
2.7
4.6
2.2
March '02 July '02 November
'02
March '03
2.5
Up-country
16.5
48.8
Tamil
0.2
24.2
36.3
22.4
11.9
56.7 20.5
34.2 16.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
%
78.1 Muslim
34.6 33.2
4.2
12.1
9.8
74.5 Tamil
37.8
47.6 36.2 11.1
Sinhala

you? [Multiple Answers]
National Breakdown
2
Means to achieving peace
Fighting for rights
Disharmony amongst races
Hindrance to economic growth/ Rise in cost of living
Death / Destruction
Terrorism
ic Breakdown
74.5
Terrorism
78.1
Death / Destruction
Hindrance to economic growth/ Rise in cost of living
Disharmony amongst races
Fighting for rights
Means to achieving peace
70 80 90
3
61.7 8.9
57.8
55.9
56.2
58.9
56.7
35.3
35.1 .4
26
27.7
30.1
23.6 22.4
22.3
25.7
12.1
8.7
3.5
27.6
26
22.4 6.2
15.6
.4
8.7
11.1
10
2.7
10.1
7.8 4.6
14.3
17.5
13.2
11.3
November '02
2.2
2.6
March '03 July '03
3.7
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
When will there be peace in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
80
21.1
24.8
May '01 September
'01
71.3 70
63.8
57.9
57.2
60. 60
0
60
58.6 53.9
50
54.5
58.4
57.6
%
40
30
20
11
13.4
10.2
Ethnic Breakdown
9.1
18.9
24.8
22.1
9.9 6.7 4.9
6.8
9
7.2
21
17.
10
7.6 10.6
7.5
10.4
8.
January '02
May '02 September
'02
Janu
'0
41.2 2.7 Up-country Tamil
5.4 5.1
10
35.5
66.5 11.8 3.3 3.7
4.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
50.1 3.3 Muslim
2.1
9.2
12.3
19.9
68.6 2.2 Tamil
0.2 0.4 2
25.3
Sinhala

in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
24.8 21.1
21
17.7 17.3
3
64.5 58.6
60.1
60.4
58.4 57.6
2 September
'02
61.9
60.4
Soon
Never
Don't know
Breakdown
66.5
19.3
9
7.6
15.3
11.9
10.4
8.2
10
8.5
8.7
10.3
January
May '03 September '03
'03
50.1
0 60 70 80
Don't know
Never
68.6
Not in my life time
Within the next ten years
Within the next five years
Soon
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
In your opinion what was the origin/cause(s) of [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
50
41.6
41.5
33.1
17.9
June '01 November
'01
40.3 40
33.8
34.5
33.4
39.3
36
24.4
24.3
37.8
35.1
%
30
24.7
29.2
26
28
29.2
25.6
36.2
22.5
20
14.8
12.4
14.2
11.7
3.6
Ethnic Breakdown
42.3
15.2
10
9.2 7.8
9.9
8.3
4.2 0
11.7
13.2
11
6.6 9.1
4.9
8.7
8.16.9
9
8.2 6.8 8.7
14.3
8.4 2.6
7.1
9
1.4
3.6
4 4
3.9 2.9
2
7
8
9.8 2
3.3
March '02 July '02 November
'02
Marc
1.6
Up-country Tamil
6.9
16.3
27.5
1.3
9.7
12.6
14.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8
%
50.1
4.7
33.9
5.9 6.5
Muslim
9.9
29.6
23.2
58.7
1.8 Tamil
3.3
9.1
19.7
46.1
70
Sinhala

the origin/cause(s) of the war in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
41
21.4
Communal politics
39.3
41.5
37.7 35.1
36.3
Discrimination against Tamils
Discrimination against 24.4
Sinhalese
Sinhala chauvinism
Tamil chauvinism
Terrorism
ic Breakdown
3
36.2
25.6
22.5
20.4
19.5
.9
3.6 26.6
15.2 11.7
12.6
8.2
8.7
14.3
3.2
13.3
11.2
8.3
12.3 10.4 12.1 10.6
11.2
12.1
11.1
2 November
'02
12
6.8 2
7
8
9.8
2.9
5
3.3
2.3
March '03 July '03
50.1
50 60 70 80
Terrorism
Tamil chauvinism
58.7
Sinhala chauvinism
Discrimination against
6.1
70
Sinhalese
Discrimination against Tamils
Communal politics
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
S
OLUTIONS TO THE
C
ONFLICT
How do you think we can end the war and
[Multiple Answers]
National Trend
100
90
85
87.2
84.4
86
83.7
8
71.3
59.1
5.5
0
May '01 September
'01
80.7 80
70
68.6
71.9
60
%
50
40
30
18
24.4
20
7.6
Ethnic Breakdown
10.7
19.9 20
10
9.9
7
10.1
7.2 1.3
0.8 1 0.9
1.1
0.8
0.8 1 1.1 January
'02
May '02 September
'02
Jan
'0
Up-country Tamil
3.1 0
2.4
0
%
9 Muslim
0 0
92 Tamil
1.3
82.7 Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1

n end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
84.4
86
83.7
83.7
86.7 87.4
81.9
9.1
02 September
'02
84.6
5.5
Government defeating the LTTE
LTTE defeating the Government
Peace talks 10.1
7.2
6.5
11.1
.8 1 1.1 nic Breakdown
82.7
10.4
7 0.8
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.5 0.2
January '03
May '03 September
'03
96.9
94.3
0 70 80 90 100
Peace talks
92.3
LTTE defeating the Government
Government defeating the LTTE
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think there hasn’t been a solution odd years? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
50
46.2
37.3 34.1
7
May '01 September
'01
44.2 44
40.5
44.2
7.3
8.6
9.3
4.8
39.1
39.4 40
38.5
36.7
37.1
41.4 33.4
34.8 30
30.1
30.3
30.9
31.8
35
30.6
30.2
33.1
%
20
25.8
24.5
22.2
21.2
20.7
19.5
18.5
18.6
18.2
10
11.3
10.6 10.5
0
6.5 6.5
7
0
January
May '02 September '02
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
31.2
January '03
25.9 7.5 Up-country Tamil
1.3
5
1.7
16.3 16.7 11.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
35.7
7.1
25.6
16.3
35.7
Muslim
5.5
10.6
29
29.6
13.7
36.2 Tamil
4
44.9
55.5
56.4
Sinhala

asn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15
ers]
National Trend
.2 44
40.5
44.2
41.8
44
42.8
32.5
.6 10.5
7
44.2
7.5
Corrupt military and political leaders
No political will
LTTE does not want peace
War is necessary for people in power
ic Breakdown
56.4
44.9
41.4
32.7
34.2
33.1
34.8
6
30.2
19.5 19.1
8.6
18.2
13.1
15.7
14
17.6
7.6
4.8
September '02
11.3
10.6
January '03
May '03 September
'03
5.7
36.2
Don't know
5.7
War is necessary for people in power
LTTE does not want peace
The strength of the LTTE
55.5
No political will
Corrupt military and political leaders
40 50 60
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
C
ONFIDENCE
I think the Government is committed to find pe
National Trend
80
69.8
70.2
70
60
63.7
58
61.8
59.4
50.2
53
50
43.8 44 %
40
31.4 30
23.8
22.5 24.5
20
11.9
9.8
9.1 12
May '01 September
'01
15.1
18.6
2
10
0
January '02 May '02 September
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
40.4
Janu
2.1
Up-country Tamil
10.5
18.4
Muslim
9
33.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
63.6
13.2
Tamil
9.9
12.9
51.6
Sinhala

committed to find peace through talks.
National Trend
70.2
63.7
59.4
56.7
50.1
53.9
48
44
12
Agree
Disagree
ic Breakdown
0.4
30.3
02 September
'02
22.5
21.6
15.1
18.6
20.9
19.1
January '03 May '03 September
'03
74.5
50 60 70 80
Disagree
63.6
Neither agree nor disagree
51.6
Agree
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace th
National Trend
80
15.8
May '01 September
'01
68.5 70
63.5
60
50.6
53.2
50
45.7
%
40
42.7
32.9
39.5
38.2
39.8
30
20
17.3
12.9
27.3
25.7
27.5
28.3
29.3
9.8
0
Ethnic Breakdown
10
22.2
10
January '02 May '02 September
'02
Ja
2.7 Up-country Tamil
7.8
57.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8
%
7
16.2
30.6
Muslim
19.4
29.9
1.7
Tamil
7.3
7
Sinhala

itted to find peace through talks.
National Trend
45.7
45.7
44.9
38.2
47.2
18.2
'02 September
'02
50.3
7
39.8 38.9
27.5
28.3
29.3 29
25.7
20.5
19.7
January '03 May '03 September
'03
3
Agree
Disagree
Breakdown
76
75.9
57.8
50 60 70 80
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the Government go Answers]
National Trend
60
50
39 40
35.8
41.7
44.6
48.8
45.3
42.1 39.5
38.3
38.3
37.5
33.4
27
20.1
June '01 November
'01
35.5
28.9
33.2
32.4
32.5
%
30
29.6
24.5 18.6
24.1 19.9 19.8
24.1
29.9
28.6
2
20
18
28.9
24.1
19.7
16.2
17.6
15.5
17.2
14.5
9.7
12.2
12.4
10.3 11.9 8.4
10
14.1
12
10
9.5
0
7.1
7.4
4.5
8 4.2 3.5 10.6
7.18.8 4.3
3.2
10.3
3.9 6.6
5
March '02 July '02 November
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
35.3
Marc
2.5
7.9 Up-country Tamil
24.8 24.3
2.8
22.9
28.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
48.5
6.7
23.8
7.6
10.6 Muslim
26.6
41
16.6
59. 26.2
0.8
4 Tamil
33 32
50.9 40.6
Sinhala

the Government goes in for talks? [Multiple
National Trend
5.3
42.1
40.2
34.6
22.8
10.3
Commitment to peace
38.3
38
36.8
Economic hardship
International pressure
Realisation that this war cannot be won 20.1
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
ic Breakdown
5.3
38.3
32.5
29.9
29 24.1
24.1
20.7
10.3 7.18.8
28.6
27.2
23.8
22.4 24.6
29.2
20.3
.4
10
10.3
14.1
12.9
13.1
18.2
10.9 11
11.2
3.2
3.9 6.6
5.2
3.7 4.6
2.9
2 November
'02
March '03 July '03
48.5
41
40 50 60 70
Lack of manpower
To fool the people
59.7
Realisation that this war cannot be won
International pressure
50.9 40.6
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for tal
National Trend
50
44.9
40
34.6 31.3
31.5
30.8
30.8 30
%
29.1
27.3
24.5
23.4
27.4
June '01 November
'01
27.9
25.1
24.7
27.7
28.7 28.5
25.6
25
18.7
18.3
22.4
20.4
19
23.9
20
20.5
18.5
15.2
16.1
16.1
12.3
14.5
Ethnic Breakdown
5.1
22.5
23 20
16.7
15.4
14.9
19.1
15.9
16.9
13.9
18.6
18.2
14.9
13.8
14.6
15.5
8.9
18.1
14.6
13.9
13.1
16.7
15.7 16.5 1
10
12.5
12.8
14.4
12.4
10.3
12.8
0
13.2
12.6
8.5
6.6
March '02 July '02 November
'02
March '0
1.9
5.4 Up-country Tamil
22.1
23.9
12
41 26.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
43.9
17.5
27.4
12
36.8 12.6 Muslim
25.5
41.5
49.7 18.4
1
3 Tamil
10.9
15.9
6.1
58.1
Sinhala

e LTTE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
10.2
Commitment to peace
Economic hardship
International pressure
Realisation that this war cannot be won
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
nic Breakdown
58.1
37.3
8
30.8
28.7
28.5 29.1 14.5
35.3
4 .9
22.5
25.6
25
24.3 21.9
26.6
14.6 13.9 20
16.1
16.1
16.7 20.5
15.7 18.5
23.2
20
22.1
19.2
17.9 15.3
12.8
12.4
10.3
16.5 .1
14.6
12.9 13.2
12.6
11.9
11
10.4
November '02
March '03 July '03
43.9
41.5
41
Lack of manpower 6.8
To fool the people
49.7
Realisation that this war cannot be won
International pressure
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
40 50 60 70
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
T
HE
P
EACE
P
ROCESS
Who should be involved in negotiations?
National Trend
40
36.7
32.1
33.9
30
25.1
31.3
27
21.6 21.7
16.4
16.6
17
13.5 14
12.9
9.5
May '01 September
'01
25.8
23
19.9
21.9
%
20
16.2
19
15.9
15.1
19.1
18
15.5
12.4
15.5
1.4 1 Ethnic Breakdown
4.4
14.2
12.1
11
16.4
10
6.6 4.8
2.1 2.1 2.5
0
4.3
4 2.4
1.9
January '02 May '02 September
'02
January
0
21.8
Up-country Tamil
1
4.5
8.9
19.3
32.7
0
7.5
Muslim
0
0.5 0.8
30.3
2.6
Tamil
0
6.7
3
3.8
6.8
26.1
11
35.8
Sinhala
1.6
2.9
10.9
8
15.5
18.7
8.2
15.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

n negotiations?
National Trend
26.7
13.9
9.3
Govt. and LTTE only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third party
No peace talks
thnic Breakdown
.3
27
21.9
25.1
19.9
20.3
23.3
16.6
17.2
12.5
12.9
9.8
9.5
1.4
1 1.5
22 18.3
18.6 16.4 11
9.5 6.6
6.8
2.4
1.9
0.9
1.9
1.3
September '02
January '03 May '03 September
'03
32.7
35.8
40 50 60
Don't know
No peace talks
55.5
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt. and LTTE only
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NTERNATIONAL
F
ACILITATION
What is your opinion of the need for an in involvement to solve the North East war in Sri
National Trend
16
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
40
38
35.8
30
32.6
28.9
32.5 32.5
30.9
31.9
30.2
30.6 29
24.2
29
28.8
29
29 29.
21.8
20.9
26.1
%
20
16.8
16.5
14.2
10 9.6
9.6
10.2
September '01 January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03
Ethnic Breakdown
24
17.9
14.2
16.7
16
13.1
13.2
11.3 10
9.9
11.3
9.2
11.6
9.5
5.4
0.7
10.3
10.5 1
3.2
2.1
0
5.4
5.7
0.9
1.4
4.6
1.4 1 1.4
0.9
15.6
Up-country Tamil
1.8
1.6
11.5
12.2
0.3
9.5
2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
62.5
10.1
12.6
Muslim
4.3
5.3
5.5
29.8
55.6
4.8
9.7 Tamil
0
9.1
21.5 Sinhala

F
ACILITATION
f the need for an international third party’s North East war in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
.9
30.2
30.6 29.8
31.7
32.1
30.5
30.7
Is essential
29
29 29.3
28.6
26.2 .1
Will add a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will add a negative impact
Is not essential
Don't know/Not sure 1.4
1.4
2.1
thnic Breakdown
73.6
19.5
.2
16.7
17.9
16.2
14.5
19.2
.6
10.5 9.5
10.2
10
9.9
9.6
5.4
5.7
4.3
3.7 3.7
5.4 4.6
1.4 1.6
1
0.9
ber '02 January '03 May '03 September '03
62.5
50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
55.6
Is not essential
Will add a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will add a positive impact
Is essential
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
N
ORWEGIAN
F
ACILITATION
Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace proce
National Trend
60
53.8
50.7 50
46.3 42.4 42.7
37
42.3
40
38
%
30
20.5
23.1
24.5
22.4
23
28.2
29.8
20
15.5
19.4
18
18
17.9
22.8
22.1
21.8
18.7
21
10
9.1
7.8 13.6 12.8
8.8
10.2
11.
0
January '02 May '02 September '02 January '03
Ethnic Breakdown
11.5
Up-country Tamil
0 2.7
6.1
37.7
28.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 9
%
85
10.3
Muslim
10.5
25
21.3
11.5
53.6
6.4
Tamil
0.6
84
Sinhala

i Lankan peace process
National Trend
46.3
42.3
38
43.3
34.6 36
10.8
8.8
Approve
28.2
29.8
33
23
22.7
29.5
Neither approve nor disapprove
20.5
21.8
18.7
21
21.1
19.3
Disapprove
14.6
10.2
11.1
11.8
Don't know/Not sure
2 January '03 May '03 September '03
nic Breakdown
85.8
84.9
60 70 80 90 100
Don't know/Not sure
53.6
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Norway continuing to facilitate talks.
National Trend
50
42.6
38.2
38.7
September '02
44.1
40
41.3
30
29.4
26.9 %
22.6
23.3
19.7
20.9
22.2
20
21.8
21.8 21.8
11.9
13.2
10
13.6
10.7
12.4
0
November
January '03 March '03 May '03 '02
Ethnic Breakdown
12.3
Up-country Tamil
2.5
4.3
11.1
Muslim
17
27.7
31.5
39.7
7.7
Tamil
5
7.6
21.8
Sinhala
14
35.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

ilitate talks.
National Trend
42.6 38.7
32.2
33.8
26.9
32 31.9 20.9
22.2
21.8
21.3 12.4 13.8
13.4
rch '03 May '03 July '03 September
'03
19.9
13.2
3
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
80.8
77.7
50 60 70 80 90
Don't know/Not sure
.7
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
Page 24

Page 28
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NDIA
’
S
I
NVOLVEMENT
What is your opinion of the need for India’ Lankan peace process?
National Trend
50
40
35.9
31.7
33.8
32.7
35.5
30
27
%
26.1
26.6 20.8 20
16.2
16.4
15.6
19.2
18.6
14.9
14.3
16.2
13
2.7
0
1.2
May '02 September '02 January '03 May
Ethnic Breakdown
22
17.4
13.1
12.5
13.5
16.8
15.8 1
10
3.5
5.9 8.4 9.2
7.1
5.6
1.9
1.3 1.7
3
Up-country Tamil
0.2 2
2.9
3.8
15.2
5.3
10.3
13.1 Muslim
3.3
10
1.7
6.4
13.8
18.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
57.3
0.4
8.2
27.6 Tamil
4.8
11.2
30.5
47.2
Sinhala

f the need for India’s involvement in the Sri
National Trend
5.5
35.9
39.6
Is essential
Will add a positive 30.4
27.9
impact
27.5
27.4
Will have no
17.4
18.6
22.3
impact
Will add a 16.8
15.8
13.6
negative impact
Is not essential
Don't know/Not
1.7
2.1
sure
ic Breakdown
47.2
15.9
17.9
16.2 13 7.1 5.6
12.4
12.9
5.3 6.1
12.8
5.7
3
1.6 1.6 uary '03 May '03 September '03
72.4
Don't know/Not sure
Is not essential
57.3
Will add a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will add a positive impact
Is essential
50 60 70 80
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
R
ECENT
P
OLITICAL
D
EVELO
S
RI
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
If you are aware of the involvement of foreig the ceasefire, what is your opinion of the ne mission for the ceasefire agreement to succeed
National Trend
50
37.9
39.4
39.3
40.5
41.5
37.5
43
40
33.6 31.2
%
30
26.7
26.3 29.7
25.3
26.7
29
20
10
10.3
7.3
4.6
5.6
6.7
8.4
5.6
9.6
6.9
7.2
5.8
4.2 1.4
4.1
5.2
3.7 0.4 2. 0
March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03
Ethnic Breakdown
18.2
5.2
4.5 7.5
5 4.2 4.1
3.8 0
1.9
1.9 1.7
0.6 1.7 0.3
Up-country Tamil
0.3
0.3 0
16.3
12.5
20
0
0
4.4
10
%
80.9
36
W 0.2
o
Muslim
3.3
6.1
Is
54.5
W
4.5 Tamil
0.5
6.8
W
86.7
W
1.3
12.7
Is Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
ION
nvolvement of foreign monitors in monitoring ur opinion of the need for such a monitoring
greement to succeed?
National Trend
43
37.5
27.2
26.6
2.8
Is essential
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Is not essential
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
Breakdown
86.7
43.5
29
32
25.3
26.7
24.8
15.8
9.6
7.5
6.9
5.2
7.2
5.3
8.5
5.4 4.1 1.7
3.7 0.4 0.2 0.6
12.1 9.1
3.9 1.2
02 March '03 July '03
80.9
70 80 90
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
Is not essential
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
Is essential
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is imp the ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
50
40
35.5
29
31.7
33.2
30.3
32.8
32.1
30
33.1
%
28.9
26.8
27.4
27.6
27
30.1
23.6
18
14.6
May '02 September '02 January '03 May '
Ethnic Breakdown
19.2
21.3
19.6
0
22.5
21.4
20
15.7
22.8
18 17.8
19.2
18.9
17
10
12.7
Up-country Tamil
9.8
10.6
18.8
48.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
66.9
11.2
Muslim
24.3
37.8
13.5
26.7
16.2
Tamil
6.2
19.9
56.6
Sinhala

itoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of
National Trend
43.6
0.3
32.8
32.1
31.3
Agree
27.6
27
30.1
26.9
.8
21.3
19.6
21.9
23.6
9.2
18.9
17.4
19.6
18.1
14.4
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Don't know/Not sure
ary '03 May '03 September '03
nic Breakdown
56.6
66.9
48.3 8
Don't know/Not sure
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
50 60 70 80
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effe the ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
50
40
31.4
28.7
30.5
28
22.8
July '02 November
'02
30.6
29.4
%
30
26.1
26
24.3
26.6
24
29.4 21.3 20
19.3
24.8
23.8
25.7
20.3
21.4
19.7
21.1
22.4
19.1
10
0
March '03
Ethnic Breakdown
7.8
Up-country Tamil
9.8
10.6
12.4
Muslim
30.6
18.5
36.6
20.3
19.3
Tamil
4.6
20.2
19.8
45 16.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
54.8
Sinhala

itoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of
National Trend
40.7
22.8
22.8 19.1
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
54.8
33 30.6
29.4
6.6
24
29.4
25.6
21.1
22.4
22.4
19.1
18.6
17.1
March '03 July '03
71.8
6.6
45
0 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know/Not sure
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
EDERAL
S
OLUTION
If you are aware that the Government and th that they are committed to finding a solution b a united Sri Lanka, please tell me if you appr agreement?
National Trend
50
44.2 41.7
40
36.1
33.3
34.1 32.4 %
30
30.6
24
23.1
20
10
0
March '03 May '03 July '03 S
Ethnic Breakdown
3.7
Up-country Tamil
4.4
5.9
Muslim
40.9
29.2
19.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
53.2
16.7
Tamil
2.1
51.3
79.5
Sinhala

e Government and the LTTE have announced to finding a solution based on federalism within e tell me if you approve or disapprove of this
ational Trend
44.2
45
32.4
28.8
26
Approve
Disapprove 23.1
Don’t know/Not sure
July '03 September '03
nic Breakdown
79.5
91.9
51.3
60 70 80 90 100 53.2
Don’t know/Not sure
Disapprove
Approve
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I believe a federal system is the best way of gov
National Breakdown
23.1
21.9
A N D 8
D
47
Ethnic Breakdown
12.1
23.1
National
8
47
21.9
2
Up-country Tamil
3.7
30.5
8.6
Muslim
8.9
14.4
11
Tamil
5.2
10.2
26.1
Sinhala
6.9
54.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

is the best way of governing this country.
Breakdown
21.9
8
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
nic Breakdown
47
73.6
40 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know/ Not sure 63.9
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
54.9
68.1
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
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I think a federal state will lead to secession.
National Breakdown
20.9
41.8
27.5
9.8
Ethnic Breakdown
20.9
National
9.8
27.5
22.5 20.9
47.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
41.8
5.7
Up-country Tamil
15.9
49.2
9.5
29.2
19.8
Muslim
14.7
52.7
12.8
12.1
Tamil
5.9
13.6
Sinhala

lead to secession.
onal Breakdown
41.8
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
nic Breakdown
41.8
49.2
68.4
47.1
40 50 60 70 80
Don't know/ Not sure
52.7
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal structure Tamils will have mo
National Breakdown
21.4
43.2
19.9
15.5
Ethnic Breakdown
21.4
National
15.5
19.9
23 16.7
44.4
0 10 20 30 40
%
43.2
9.3
Up-country Tamil
19.8
27.7
15.9
43.2
12
Muslim
11.9
24.1
15.2
Tamil
12.2
23.3
Sinhala

Tamils will have more benefits.
nal Breakdown
43.2 Agree
Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
nic Breakdown
43.2
27.7
49.2
44.4
30 40 50 60
Don't know/ Not sure
43.2
Disagree
52
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal structure Sinhalese will have m
National Breakdown
23.5
2.4
21.5
52.6
Ethnic Breakdown
1.7
23.5
National
21.5
52.6
2.4
9.3
Up-country Tamil
24
24.3
53.7 20.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
50.7 16
26.2
Muslim
26.6
45.3
1.9
18.7
Tamil
18.9
5
4.1
Sinhala

Sinhalese will have more benefits.
nal Breakdown
21.5
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
ic Breakdown
52.6
50.7
53.7
40 50 60 70
Don't know/ Not sure
45.3
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
58.3
Agree
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal structure Muslims will have m
National Breakdown
25.4
1.5
27.3
Ag N D D 45.8
Ethnic Breakdown
1
25.4
National
27.3
45.8
1.5
11.5
Up-country Tamil
22
26.8
44.3 28
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
55.6 10.9
22.2
Muslim
12.2 0.2
19.1
Tamil
18.2
57
4.8
Sinhala

Muslims will have more benefits.
Breakdown
27.3
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
ic Breakdown
45.8
55.6
44.3
40 50 60 70
Don't know/ Not sure
65.4
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
57.9
Agree
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal structure everyone will equally
National Breakdown
21.7
18
12.8
47.5
Ethnic Breakdown
11
21.7
National
12.8
47
18
2.1
Up-country Tamil
27.5 27.5
16.8
24
12.1
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
43
14.3
Muslim
21.8
23.6
40.2
11
Tamil
5.6
Sinhala

everyone will equally benefit.
al Breakdown
18
12.8
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
47.5
7.5
66.6
0 40 50 60 70
% 7.5
Don't know/ Not sure 43
Disagree
40.2
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
52.9
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I will agree with a federal solution if it is appr Lankans.
National Breakdown
18.2
30.7
37.6
13.4 Ethnic Breakdown
18.2
National
13.4
24.9
37.6
30.7
2
Up-country Tamil
16.2
23
19.8
41.9 13.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
58.9
16.5
Muslim
17.1
20.2
46.2
7.6
Tamil
1.1
10.4
Sinhala

l solution if it is approved by a majority of Sri
al Breakdown
30.7
13.4
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
nic Breakdown
.6
80.9
50 60 70 80 90 %
58.9
Don't know/ Not sure
Disagree
46.2
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
41.9
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think people are being adequately informed a
National Breakdown
13.2
12.6
9
65.2
Ethnic Breakdown
8.5
13.2
National
9
12.6
5.2
Up-country Tamil
30.8
33.4 30.6
16
Muslim
7.4
37.2
39.3
12.1
Tamil
20
38.1
29.8
13.4
Sinhala
7.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

dequately informed about federalism.
l Breakdown
9
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
.8
65.2
0.8
33.4 0.6
70.9
40 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know/ Not sure
37.2
Disagree
39.3
Neither agree nor disagree 38.1
Agree
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
T
HE
M
USLIM
C
OMMUNITY
Do you think that the interests and concerns o are being adequately represented in the peace
National Trend
40
36.5
34
28.5
30
29.4
0
November '02
35.6
34.1 34.3 30
30.1
29.6
%
20
22.9
26.2
26.5 26.4 18.9
10
January '03 March '03 May '03 July '03
Ethnic Breakdown
30.8
Up-country Tamil
17.4
54.5
34.2
25.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
44.1
10.8
Muslim
15.5
24.7
Tamil
18.1
Sinhala
31.6

erests and concerns of the Muslims of the East esented in the peace talks?
National Trend
34.3
34.5
32.7
30
30.1
32
26.5
26.4
27.4
Yes
No
Don't know/Not sure
May '03 July '03 September
'03
nic Breakdown
44.1
73.1
54.5
.2
40 50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
No
Yes
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What in your opinion will be the impact of this
National Trend
60
50
46.2
48.1
40
34.6
%
30
19.6
0
January '03 March '03 May '03 July '0
Ethnic Breakdown
14.2
24.9
20
19.9
20.7
21
17.9
18
18.2
10
10.5
11.9
7.6
6.3
41.8
Up-country Tamil
13.5
20.6
18.2
16.7
Muslim
8 7.2
29.8
Tamil
18.5
28 16.4
41.9
Sinhala
10.4
24.7
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

be the impact of this on the peace process?
National Trend
8.1
47.9
39.5
17.9
14.1
ay '03 July '03 September '03
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Don't know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
41.9
24.9
26.7 21
18.6
1.9
7.6
11.5
41.8
66.6
40 50 60 70
%
Don't know/Not sure
.8
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Do you think there should be a separate Muslim talks?
National Trend
50
40
35.4
38.1
30
29.5
31.5
27.8
30
%
28.7
27.5
21.9
20
10
0
March '03 May '03 July '03 S
Ethnic Breakdown
19.9
Up-country Tamil
13.3
1.6
28.3
42.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
%
57.5
Muslim
2
5.7
Tamil
38.7
20
48.3
Sinhala

d be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace
National Trend
47
38.1
21.9
19.7
Yes
No
Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
.3
30
24.9
July '03 September '03
57.5
94.6
60 70 80 90 100
Don't know/Not sure
No
Yes
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NTERIM
A
DMINISTRATION
The Government and the LTTE are co administration for the North East province. Ple of this?
National Breakdown
32.7
6
Ethnic Breakdown
National
32.7
Up-country Tamil
42.3
57.7
Muslim
45.9
54.1
Tamil
18.2
Sinhala
30.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

the LTTE are contemplating an interim rth East province. Please tell me are you aware
reakdown
67.3
Yes
No
ic Breakdown
67.3
57.7
42.3
54.1
81.8
69
40 50 60 70 80 90
%
45.9
No
Yes
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that the Government and the an interim administration for the North East p what extent are you informed about the issue o
National Breakdown
3.6
2.7
41.5
52.2
Ethnic Breakdown
3.6
National
41.5
13.9
2.2
1.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
52.2 2.7
2.1
Up-country Tamil
15.8
3.5
9.2
Muslim
15.9
46.7
48.8
6 5.3
8
Tamil
7.1
Sinhala

Government and the LTTE are contemplating for the North East province, please tell me to med about the issue of interim administration?
Breakdown
52.2
Very informed
Somewhat informed
Not informed
Don't know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
1.5
71.1
48.8
50 60 70 80 90
%
52.2
46.7
78.7
Don't know/Not sure
Not informed
69.6
Somewhat informed
Very informed
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Through which medium did you get your infor administration?
National Breakdown
50
47.3
40
30
28.6 %
20
10
1 0
r e p a p s w e N
n o i s i v e l e T
Ethnic Breakdown
26.4
y t i s r e v i n U / l o o h c S
10.7
National
1
4.1
28.6
Up-country Tamil
0
3.7
36.9
18.7
20.7
17.7
Muslim
2.2 1.3
28.4
31.5
1.4
9.2
Tamil
0
41.5
45
9
Sinhala
1.2
4.8
0 10 20 30 40
%

id you get your information about the interim
tional Breakdown
1
10.7
S
4.1
y
h
o
R
W
thnic Breakdown
6.4
t i s r e v
t u o m
i d a i n U / l o o h c
f o d r o
28.6
47.3
36.9
45.2
51
Radio Word of mouth School/University
28.4
31.5
Television Newspaper
41.5
30 40 50 60
%
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree interim administration for the North and East?
National Breakdown
28.4
6.6 57.3
7.8
Ethnic Breakdown
7.8 National
6.6
0
16.4
57.3
28.4
18.3 Up-country Tamil 0
10.3
71.3
50.1 Muslim 0
15.7
34.2
3.8 Tamil
6.7
4.6 Sinhala
8.4
70.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%

ou agree or disagree with the setting up of an r the North and East?
nal Breakdown
28.4
6.6
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Don't know
nic Breakdown
57.3
50.1
89.5
0 60 70 80 90 100
%
Don't know
71.3
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree 70.6
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please tell me who you think should be involved
National Breakdown*
35 30 25
23.2
%
20 15
11.1
11.4 10 5 0
LTTE only LTTE representing
the Tamil community, with Sinhala and Muslim representation
Ethnic Breakdown
1.8
LTTE and other Tamil parties representing the Tamil community, with Sinhala and Muslim representation
T Si C
*The remaining 12.8% of Sri Lankans proposed a variety of other options
11.4
30.1 National
11.4 11.1
23.2
18.3 10.3 Up-country Tamil
16.8
25.6 23.9
5.5
Muslim
18.4 2.9 0
6.6
9.1 Tamil
6.5
8.3
52
14.9
46.5 Sinhala
13.3 11.6
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

ink should be involved?
ational Breakdown*
11.4
30.1
11.4
LTTE and other Tamil parties representing the Tamil community, with Sinhala and Muslim representation
LTTE and other Tamil parties, with Sinhala, Muslim and Central Government representation
Don't know/Not sure
ariety of other options
Ethnic Breakdown
46.5 .1
Don't know/Not sure
LTTE and other Tamil parties, with Sinhala, Muslim and Central Government representation
LTTE and other Tamil parties representing the Tamil community, with Sinhala and Muslim representation
52.8
LTTE representing the Tamil community, with Sinhala and Muslim representation
LTTE only
40 50 60 70
%
66.5
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree dominant role in the interim administration?
National Breakdown
4.5
40.3
45.9
9.3
Ethnic Breakdown
4.5
National
9.3
20.6
40.3
45.9
11
Up-country Tamil
0
10.3
0
Muslim
0
24.5
5
Tamil
9.7
12.4
2
Sinhala
10.2
67.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

ou agree or disagree with the LTTE playing a im administration?
l Breakdown
45.9
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Don't know
hnic Breakdown
0.3
45.9
78.8
71.2
67.1
50 60 70 80 90
%
Don't know
75.5
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware that a team of LTTE and it experts met in Paris, from the 21st to the 27 their response to Colombo’s latest pro administration?
National Breakdown
40.1
Ethnic Breakdown
National
40.1
16.9
40.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
59.9
Up-country Tamil
27.2
Muslim
42.8
57.2
Tamil
Sinhala
59.9

eam of LTTE and its legal and constitutional the 21st to the 27th of August 2003, to discuss lombo’s latest proposal for an interim
reakdown
59.9
Yes No
nic Breakdown
0.1
83.1
0.1
50 60 70 80 90
%
59.9
59.9
72.8
57.2
42.8
No Yes
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
S
ITUATION IN
T
RINCOMALEE
Are you aware that the President wrote expressing her concern over the LTTE threat Base and Harbour?
National Breakdown
49.7
50.3
Ethnic Breakdown
National
50.3
47.1
51.9
%
49.7
Up-country Tamil
28.2
Muslim
38.3
Tamil
52.6
Sinhala
48.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 6

he President wrote to the Prime Minister ver the LTTE threat to the Trincomalee Naval
reakdown
49.7
Yes
No
ic Breakdown
50.3
49.7
47.1
48.1
51.9
71.8
61.7
38.3
No
Yes 52.6
40 50 60 70 80
%
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that the President wrote expressing her concern over the LTTE threat Base and Harbour, please tell me do you share
National Breakdown
17.3
82.7
Ethnic Breakdown
17.3 National
12.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8
%
69.3 Up-country Tamil
30.7
13.4 Muslim
Tamil
11.6 Sinhala

the President wrote to the Prime Minister ver the LTTE threat to the Trincomalee Naval tell me do you share the President’s concern?
akdown
82.7
Yes
No
nic Breakdown
82.7
69.3
87.6
88.4
50 60 70 80 90 100
%
86.6
No
Yes
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
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D
EMONSTRATION
Are you aware that the National Bhikku Front campaign protesting against the establis administrative structure for the North East September 2003?
National Breakdown
32.2
67.8
Ethnic Breakdown
National
32.2
21.2
7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
67
Up-country Tamil
50.6
48.7
Muslim
37.5
61.8
Tamil
Sinhala
29.5

ational Bhikku Front (NBF) held a Satyagraha gainst the establishment of an interim for the North East province, on the 17th of
akdown
67.8
Yes No
Breakdown
67.8
50.6
61.8
78.8
70.3
50 60 70 80 90
%
48.7
No
Yes
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that the National Bhikku Fron campaign protesting against the establis administrative structure for the North East September 2003, please tell me if you approve
National Breakdown
52.7 30.6
16.7
Ethnic Breakdown
16.7 National
30.6
17.8
59.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
52.7
1.7 Up-country Tamil
16.3
9.7 Muslim
9.9
6.8 Tamil
8.9
Sinhala
22.3

National Bhikku Front (NBF) held a Satyagraha gainst the establishment of an interim for the North East province, on the 17th of ell me if you approve or disapprove of this?
eakdown
52.7
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
52.7
82
84
59.4
50 60 70 80 90
%
Don’t know/Not sure 80.4
Disapprove
Approve
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware that a new organisation calle Movement (PNM) was formed comprising o including the JVP, MEP and some religious orga
National Breakdown
47.2
Ethnic Breakdown
47.2 National
56.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
%
52.8
42.5
65 Up-country Tamil
34.2
Muslim
16.3
48.2 Tamil
51.8
Sinhala

ew organisation called the Patriotic National ormed comprising of several political parties
d some religious organisations?
akdown
52.8
Yes No
c Breakdown
47.2
56.6
50 60 70 80 90
%
52.8
42.5
65.8
83.2
No Yes
48.2
51.8
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that a new organisation call Movement (PNM) was formed comprising o including the JVP, MEP and some religious or opinion will be the impact of this on the peace
National Breakdown
21.2 31
Will Will Will
19
Don'
28.8
Ethnic Breakdown
23.6
31
National
19
28.8
21.2
12.2
Up-country Tamil
14.2 0
7.8
Muslim
37.1
52.2
3
13.7
Tamil
12.7 0.4
31
Sinhala
19.2
23.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

new organisation called the Patriotic National ormed comprising of several political parties nd some religious organisations, what in your
of this on the peace process?
reakdown
1.2
19
Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
73.6
7.1
72.4
0 50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
52.2
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware that the Patriotic National Mo march, from Kandy to Colombo, against the es administrative structure for the North and Eas
National Breakdown
5.9
94.1
Ethnic Breakdown
5.9 National
0.5 Up-country Tamil
0.7 Muslim
5.3 Tamil
5.9 Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

atriotic National Movement (PNM) has held a lombo, against the establishment of an interim or the North and East?
akdown
Yes No
hnic Breakdown
94.1
93.8
50 60 70 80 90 100
%
99.5
No
99.3
Yes
94.7
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that the Patriotic National Mo march, from Kandy to Colombo, against the es administrative structure for the North and E will be the impact of this on the peace process?
National Breakdown
20.8
23.3
Will ha Will ha Will ha Don't k
31.6
24.3
Ethnic Breakdown
20.8
National
24.3
25.9
31.6
23.3
3.7
Up-country Tamil
18.4 3.7
6.9
Muslim
30.5
59.6
3
4.4
Tamil
31.5
6
0.9
21.9
Sinhala
23.8
27.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

Patriotic National Movement (PNM) has held a lombo, against the establishment of an interim for the North and East, what in your opinion on the peace process?
reakdown
3.3
24.3
Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
63.1
74.1
40 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know/Not sure
59.6
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
3
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in Septembe
DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 205 Gampaha 172 Kalutara 88 Kandy 100 Matale 34 Nuwar Eliya 51 Galle 78 Hambantota 40 Matara 59 Anuradhapura 57 Polonnaruwa 28 Kurunegala 115 Puttlam 51 Badulla 56 Monaragala 27 Ratnapura 79 Kegalle 62 Amparai 42 Batticoloa 38 Trincomalee 31 Vavuniya 12 NATIONAL 1425
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in September
ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1186 Tamil 90 Muslim 90 Up-country Tamil 59 NATIONAL 1425

Annex
istribution in September 2003
TOTAL 205 172 88 100 34 51 78 40 59 57 28 115 51 56 27 79 62 42 38 31 12 1425
tribution in September 2003
TOTAL 1186 90 90 59 1425
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study i confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is e repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conductin a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase o
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the stud the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fie an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a n factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole f this model.
The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative distr Amparai, Batticoloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar distric result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficultie stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district on particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statis
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maxim DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order households.
In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ g the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PCI
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error m noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not sup same level of precision.

ence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public rocess over time it is essential that the study be conducted e study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of ame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of g each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture e span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that ocess is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic d influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in
g 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the uniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a n and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each population proportions. However, some districts are over ty but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the
nicity within a district only if the population proportion of that sional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit nique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri
ent of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
rk and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a uct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews ule) technique in order to assure the random selection of
er is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, lace at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, sehold using the ‘KISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member of eing selected to the PCI sample.
ubject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the
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Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social resea conducts polls on socio-economic and political iss
Operating under the Board of Directors of Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in Septem longstanding vacuum for a permanent, profess polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and political is
Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a me majority of the public can express their opinions o Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social is a means through which public opinion can influ debate.
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Tel: +9411 2370472 Fax: +9411 2370475

independent social research organisation, which conomic and political issues.
oard of Directors of the Centre for Policy as established in September 1999, and filled a r a permanent, professional and independent a on social and political issues.
of empowerment, a means by which the silent express their opinions on issues affecting them. t surveys on key social issues, thereby providing public opinion can influence the public policy
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org