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An Opinion Poll On Peace
Peace Confidence Index (P
TOP-LINE RESULTS
© 2003 Social Indicator ● Centre for Po
Nove

pinion Poll On Peace
ace Confidence Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
Social Indicator
November 2003
ndicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives

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W
hile many studies have been conducted this conflict, none have attempted to public perception over a period of time. The la identified as a significant void by Social Indicator unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The stu monthly to gauge the impact of local and developments on public attitudes towards the pea

W
es have been conducted on various aspects of ne have attempted to capture the changes in period of time. The lack of such a study was void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research olicy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence o fill this lacuna. The study will be conducted bi- impact of local and international political ttitudes towards the peace process.

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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
E
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
(PCI) T
OP
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX -L
INE
R
ESULTS
PERCEPTIONS OF WAR AND PEACE
SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT
CONFIDENCE
THE PEACE PROCESS
I
NTERNATIONAL
F
ACILITATION
N
ORWEGIAN
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
I
NDIA
’
S
I
NVOLVEMENT
• R
ECENT
P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION
F
EDERAL
S
OLUTION
T
HE
M
USLIM
C
OMMUNITY
SLFP – JVP A
LLIANCE
LTTE’
S
ISGA P
ROPOSAL
TAKE OVER OF MINISTRIES
WHO SHOULD HANDLE THE PEACE PROCESS
NORWEGIAN POSITION
BUDGET
C
HIEF
J
USTICE
E
UROPEAN
(EU)
• A
NNEX
U
NION

ex
01 I
TERNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
02 E
07 I
DEX
(PCI) 15
ND PEACE 15
NFLICT 16
18
22
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
23
ION
24
26
D
VELOPMENTS
27
MISSION 27
30
Y
39
42
45
ES 50
THE PEACE PROCESS 56
57
59
61
U) 63
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a n
public confidence in the peace process using a set of stand
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of q
economic and political developments in order to gauge pub
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide
useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity
opinions of the public are given due importance and incorpora
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire a
interviews amongst a 1,279 respondent sample. The 17 adm
provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern province
control of the Amparai, Batticoloa and Vavuniya were surveye
actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the s
Fifteen waves of the PCI study were conducted in
November 2001 and January, March, May, July, Sept
January, March, May, July and September 2003. The l
November 2003. This publication presents only the top-lin
survey.
The results of these sixteen waves offer us data for a comp
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war
the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

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INTRODUCTION
. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
ess using a set of standardised questions which remain
her is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process,
ne wave to another.
riod of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
f the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective
portance and incorporated into the policy debate.
uctured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
ent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven
nd the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government
d Vavuniya were surveyed. Data is weighted to reflect the
e districts in which the sample was surveyed.
were conducted in May, June, September and
arch, May, July, September, November 2002 and
ptember 2003. The latest wave was conducted in
presents only the top-line results of the November 2003
offer us data for a comparative study on changing public
from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of
3% margin of error.

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMEN 2003
• Sri Lanka is likely to become the third strongest econom GDP growth rate of 5.5 percent next year, the Asian Dev report on the Asian outlook for 2003, the ADB said its op the talks with the LTTE and continued adherence to m September 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 01 October 2003)
• Thousands of nationalists led by Sri Lanka's main oppositio protest the government's Norwegian-backed peace b (AFP/www.lankapage.com)
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) in a Press Releas that hoisting of the LTTE flag on public buildings and in pu amounts to a violation of the Ceasefire Agreeme (http://www.army.lk/))
• Public Administration Minister Vajira Abeywardena today Service under World Bank recommendations and said the release Rs. 300 million for the restructuring programme October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 03 October 2003)
• The LTTE today freed 50 soldiers under age 18, the first ba programme, UNICEF said. The children will be moved to th fighters to be opened today in the rebel-held Kilinochchi October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 03 October 2003)
• The US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage has sai of the LTTE as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) terrorism in Sri Lanka. (03 October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 04
• The LTTE had agreed to allow Muslim farmers to engage in controversial Kinniya camp, the Sri Lanka Monitoring Missi today. (05 October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 06 October 2003)
• The Army today said the LTTE defied the ruling given by th at Shivananda school grounds, Navatkudah, Batticaloa on Oc
• Minister and SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem flew to Kinniya, T where some 1,000 people reportedly blocked the entrance the crowd was protesting against the arrest of a Muslim yo Tamil families over a plot of disputed land. (09 October 2003
• The People's Alliance spokesman Sarath Amunugama said to a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Ranil W supporting the US invasion of Iraq. (10 October 2003)-(Daily
• Interim Administration system is one of the steps needed to peace process said Minister of Enterprise Development, Minister of Constitutional Affairs Prof. G. L. Peiris at a foru UNF Organization to create awareness on the governme Mirror on 13 October 2003)
• LTTE will hold talks in Norway with Foreign Minister Jan unveiling their power-sharing plan for Sri Lanka's stalled p today. (13 October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 14 October 2003)
• Two businessmen who had taken goods from Colombo to LTTE. The LTTE Customs division together with the vehi 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 15 October 2003)
• India today strongly backed Sri Lanka’s peace bid, broad bloodshed, and dismissed concerns that its economic intere India’s Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha, who is on a two-da Norwegian-backed peace effort. (15 October 2003)-(The Islan
• The South African parliamentary delegation who was in Sr said that they would recommend to the African National C Mandela to take all possible measures to end the ongoing bl to even urge Mandela to be the facilitator to bring the p October 2003)-(http://www.tamilcanadian.com/cgi-bin/php/pagev
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NAL DEVELOPMENTS OCTOBER 2003-NOVEMBER
third strongest economy in the South Asia region with a projected ext year, the Asian Development Bank predicted today. In its latest 003, the ADB said its optimism was based on continued progress in ntinued adherence to macroeconomic and structural policies. (30
October 2003) ri Lanka's main opposition were marching to the capital Colombo to egian-backed peace bid, organizers said. (01 October 2003)-
(SLMM) in a Press Release issued on 30th September 2003 reiterates public buildings and in public places in Government controlled areas he Ceasefire Agreement. (01 October 2003)-(Sri Lanka Army
jira Abeywardena today announced plans to restructure the Public mendations and said the World Bank had expressed willingness to structuring programme expected to begin in January next year. (02 ctober 2003) under age 18, the first batch of children demobilised under a UNICEF ldren will be moved to the first "transit home" for former under aged e rebel-held Kilinochchi, said a spokeswoman for the UNICEF. (02 ctober 2003) Richard Armitage has said it would consider revoking the designation ist Organization (FTO) at any time, provided the LTTE renounced 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 04 October 2003) slim farmers to engage in paddy cultivation up to 50 metres from the i Lanka Monitoring Mission spokesperson Ms. Agnes Bragadottir said or on 06 October 2003) ied the ruling given by the SLMM and continued to hoist the LTTE flag atkudah, Batticaloa on October 7. (09 October 2003)-(Daily Mirror)
akeem flew to Kinniya, Trincomalee today to defuse the latest crisis ly blocked the entrance to the China Bay police station. Reports said the arrest of a Muslim youth allegedly involved in an attack on some
d land. (09 October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 10 October 2003) arath Amunugama said today it would move urgently in parliament for Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe for his alleged statements (10 October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 11 October 2003) ne of the steps needed to be taken to achieve a final resolution in the terprise Development, Industrial Policy and Investment Promotion, rof. G. L. Peiris at a forum organised in Kurunegala by the Wayamba reness on the government's peace efforts. (12 October 2003)-(Daily
ith Foreign Minister Jan Petersen and other peace brokers before for Sri Lanka's stalled peace process, the Norwegian embassy said or on 14 October 2003) oods from Colombo to Jaffna to sell had been taken into custody by together with the vehicle had fined them Rs. 550,000. (14 October 03) anka’s peace bid, broadly endorsing power-sharing to end ethnic that its economic interests in the country were vulnerable to attack. inha, who is on a two-day visit here, said New Delhi is supporting the 5 October 2003)-(The Island on 17 October 2003)
elegation who was in Sri Lanka recently, before leaving the country, o the African National Congress (ANC) leader and president Nelson es to end the ongoing bloody strife here and express their willingness acilitator to bring the parties involved to the negotiation table. (16 dian.com/cgi-bin/php/pageview.php?ID=69&SID=39)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Visiting Canadian Foreign Minister Bill Graham has warned tha fails to show full commitment to the peace process and adde LTTE functions on its soil but has temporarily suspended pr October 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)
• Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has ordered Defence immediate inquiry into the alleged presence of a Tiger arm spokesman yesterday said the Premier has asked for inform LTTE, whether the Navy's information about the ship had happened. (19 October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 20 October 2003)
• The LTTE has released a second group of abducted children soldiers, the U.N. children's agency said yesterday. The releas came days after a group of 13 youngsters were released by th soldiers. "They were all between 14 and 16 years of age and h weeks," said UNICEF spokesman Sarah Epstein. (21 October 20
• India and Sri Lanka today decided to conclude a defence coope for the early conclusion of additional Protocol to the SAARC (21 October 2003)-(http://www.deepikaglobal.com/ENG4_sub.asp?
• The Police today said that the reason for today’s protes international truce monitors and the government’s (proposed October 2003)-(AP/Xinhua/http://www.theacademic.org/stories/106
• President Chandrika Kumaratunge has requested the Norweg the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, Major General (retd.) Tri saying his actions have caused serious doubts in the implem Presidential Secretariat said October 23. (23 October 2 (www.theacedemic.org/www.tamilnet.com)
• Police imposed an overnight curfew Thursday in an eastern pelted stones at police and soldiers during a protest against th Sri Lanka - 's 1.3 million Muslims live mostly in the island's e long accused the rebels of harassment, abduction and extortio
• The government yesterday said it was confident that direct pe in January next year after a positive response was received o administration. Cabinet spokesman G.L. Peiris told a news con to hand over its counter proposals on October 31, followi meeting for a preliminary round of talks to set the agenda for 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 24 October 2003)
• The overnight curfew in Kinniya was re-imposed from 1 pm to The police curfew was imposed on Thursday to bring the ten LTTE cadres allegedly seized two bullock carts belonging to 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 25 October 2003)
• Norwegian Prime Minister, Kjell Magne Bondevik in respon letter demanding the removal of the SLMM Chief Tryggve Tel taken her decision seriously into consideration and told For matter, an official said. (27 October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 28 O
• Upcountry People's Front Leader P. Chandrasekaran today political wing leader S.P. Thamilselvan for his community to 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 29 October 2003)
• At a meeting in London between Minister and SLMC leader R Solheim, Norway today reiterated its views that Muslims shou at finding a lasting solution to the ethnic conflict in Sri Lan October 2003)
• The biggest ever Sinhala-Tamil Cultural festival for peace held violently attacked and disrupted by a group allegedly linke incident, the Sinhala-Tamil cultural festival organising Abeywardene said that for the first time Sinhala blood was s was a historic moment for the country. (29 October 2003)-(Da
• TULF leader V. Anandasangari today in a letter appealed to P to the interim administration proposal for the North-East. "T also had agreed for a ceasefire and to negotiate with the g October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 01 November 2003)
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l Graham has warned that Ottawa would have to ban the LTTE if it peace process and added that Canada has imposed restrictions on mporarily suspended proscribing it due to the peace process. (16
he has ordered Defence Minister Tilak Marapana to conduct an presence of a Tiger arms ship off Mullaitivu. A Defence Ministry ier has asked for information whether the ship belonged to the tion about the ship had leaked to the LTTE and if so, how it irror on 20 October 2003) up of abducted children its critics say it possibly intended to use as aid yesterday. The release of the seven children over the weekend sters were released by the rebels, who deny that they recruit child nd 16 years of age and have been in the LTTE for no more than six h Epstein. (21 October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 22 October 2003) conclude a defence cooperation agreement at the earliest and called Protocol to the SAARC Convention on Suppression of Terrorism. global.com/ENG4_sub.asp?ccode=ENG4&newscode=27336) ason for today’s protests in Trincomalee was the presence of government’s (proposed) plans to share power with the LTTE. (22 heacademic.org/stories/10668515480/story.shtml)
s requested the Norwegian Prime Minister to remove the head of ajor General (retd.) Triggve Teleffsen, immediately from his post, us doubts in the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, the ber 23. (23 October 2003)-(The Island on 24 October 2003)-
) Thursday in an eastern Sri Lankan town after Muslim residents uring a protest against the Tamil Tiger rebels, a military official said. mostly in the island's east, where many Tamils also live, and have t, abduction and extortion. (23 October 2003)-(Associated Press) s confident that direct peace talks with the LTTE would be resumed response was received on the proposal for an Interim North East .L. Peiris told a news conference yesterday the LTTE was expected on October 31, following which the government was hopeful of lks to set the agenda for the resumption of peace talks. (23 October 3) re-imposed from 1 pm today after it was lifted at 10 am, police said. hursday to bring the tense situation under control after suspected llock carts belonging to Muslims in the Kinniya area. (24 October 3) gne Bondevik in response to President Chandrika Kumaratunga's SLMM Chief Tryggve Tellefsen said in a letter yesterday that he has nsideration and told Foreign Minister Jan Peterson to address the
03)-(Daily Mirror on 28 October 2003) . Chandrasekaran today said he received the nod from the LTTE n for his community to be represented at the talks. (28 October 3)
ister and SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem and Oslo's special envoy Erik views that Muslims should be included in the peace process aimed thnic conflict in Sri Lanka. (28 October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 29
ral festival for peace held at Colombo's New Town Hall today was a group allegedly linked to the Sihala Urumaya. Following the al festival organising committee chairman Rohitha Bashana time Sinhala blood was shed today to protect Tamil people and it
y. (29 October 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 30 October 2003) in a letter appealed to President Chandrika Kumaratunga to agree al for the North-East. "This is the first time in 20 years the LTTE to negotiate with the government for a settlement” he said. (31 ember 2003)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• LTTE today demanded an Interim Self Governing Authori outside the constitution to rule the North-East for five ye appointees, the ISGA will comprise members appointed by the The eight-page proposals of the LTTE for the first time since news conference by its Political Wing leader S.P. Thamilselvan November 2003)
• The Mahanayake Theras of the Malwatte and Asgiriya Chap Kumaratunga against a take-over of the Defence Ministry at th verge of gaining peace. (02 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 03
• TULF leader V. Anandasangari today expressed doubts about apparent pressure from the LTTE has driven a section of th (03 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 04 November 2003)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga on Nov 4, 2003 prorogued of defence, interior and mass communications after sack government sources as a "sort of mini coup." "I did it in the n Interior Minister John Amaratunga, Defence Minister Tilak Ma Imthiaz Bakeer Markar were the dismissed ministers. Resp Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe in a message to the nation acc acting in a desperately irresponsible manner to subvert the p of the people. Meanwhile, the UNF cabinet and Parliamenta meeting today and decided on a counter strategy, including Kumaratunga. (04 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 05 Novemb
• In an unprecedented move Finance Minister K.N. Choksy y proposals including a big pay hike for public servants and th pharmaceuticals and petroleum products and revisions of VA November 2003)
• A total of 129 MPs have signed a letter expressing th Wickremesinghe, his Cabinet of Ministers and the gover Samarasinghe said. (05 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 06 Nov
• The LTTE has decided not to express any opinion about the government and the President. Velupillai Prabhakaran, the le leaders of the organization including Thamilselven, the leader afternoon to discuss the latest political situation in the S discussed to close down certain front line camps of the LTTE withdraw cadres of the tiger organization engaged in various a is reported that provincial leaders of the LTTE attempted to c get information about the security situation in the country. P LTTE on this matter is a political (http://www.lankatruth.com/full_story_page/full_story_06112003_
• Chief Justice Sarath N. Silva who is to be impeached by the ru President's reference to the Supreme Court on the question November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 06 November 2003)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga today compromised on he the United National Front government in the peace proces November 2003)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga today In a 30-minute mess and radio, invited the Ranil Wickremesinghe government and national reconciliation and reconstruction. The President ple the peace process while supporting and guiding the governm November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 08 November 2003)
• Moves are afoot by the UNF Government to have Parliame presented as originally scheduled on Wednesday (Nov. 12 November 2003)-(Sunday Times on 09 November 2003)
• Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe yesterday informed the are co-chairs of the Tokyo donor conference to convey to P take charge of the Peace process since he cannot proceed wit of all aspects of the process. (09 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror
• In what is seen as a conciliatory move President Chandri Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and senior UNP members f form a government of reconstruction and reconciliation. November 2003)
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Self Governing Authority (ISGA) with autonomous powers and North-East for five years. With "absolute majority" of guerrilla embers appointed by the Government and Muslim representatives. for the first time since the "armed conflict" were made public at a g leader S.P. Thamilselvan. (01 November 2003)-(Sunday Times on 02
watte and Asgiriya Chapters today cautioned President Chadrika he Defence Ministry at this crucial stage when the country is on the 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 03 November 2003) expressed doubts about his future as the leader of the party since s driven a section of the moderate party to act against its leader. 4 November 2003)
Nov 4, 2003 prorogued parliament and took over vital portfolios munications after sacking these ministers in what is seen by ni coup." "I did it in the national interest" the President maintained. efence Minister Tilak Marapana and Mass Communication Minister ismissed ministers. Responding to the president's moves, Prime essage to the nation accused President Chandrika Kumaratunga of manner to subvert the peace process and the economic prosperity cabinet and Parliamentary group went into marathon emergency nter strategy, including a motion to impeach President Chandrika aily Mirror on 05 November 2003) Minister K.N. Choksy yesterday announced some of the Budget r public servants and the reduction in the prices of wheat flour, ucts and revisions of VAT. (05 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 06
a letter expressing their confidence in Prime Minister Ranil inisters and the government, Chief government whip Mahinda 3)-(Daily Mirror on 06 November 2003) ss any opinion about the political dispute arisen between the UNP pillai Prabhakaran, the leader of the LTTE had called all provincial Thamilselven, the leader of the political wing to Kilinochchi today litical situation in the South. According to sources it had been t line camps of the LTTE including Omanathe and Moohemale and tion engaged in various activities in government controlled areas. It the LTTE attempted to contact higher officers of security forces to tuation in the country. Political analysts say that this silence of the is a political strategy. (05 November 2003)- ge/full_story_06112003_3.htm on 06 November 2003) o be impeached by the ruling United National Front has upheld the Court on the question of the powers of the Defence Minister. (05 ovember 2003) day compromised on her strong position and pledged to support ent in the peace process. (06 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 07
day In a 30-minute message to the nation carried live on television esinghe government and other parties to form a grand alliance for ction. The President pledged she would respect the ceasefire and nd guiding the government in conducting talks with the LTTE. (07 ovember 2003) nment to have Parliament summoned within days and the Budget n Wednesday (Nov. 12), senior Government sources told. (08 November 2003) e yesterday informed the Ambassadors of Norway and the US who nference to convey to President Chandrika Kumaratunga that she e he cannot proceed with the negotiations without being in control mber 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 10 November 2003)
ove President Chandrika Kumaratunga yesterday invited Prime senior UNP members for a discussion today on her proposal to ion and reconciliation. (10 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 11
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• Peace talks between the government and the LTTE have be crisis is resolved, the government's chief peace negotiator G. has happened in the past few days, it is logical to assume th before anything else," Prof. Peiris said. ( (http://www.dailymirror.lk/2003/11/11/front/4.asp) on 12 Novemb
• Sri Lanka’s constitutional crisis deepened further on Novemb Front (UNF) and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) wrote t convene the national legislature before 19 November, the prorogation of Parliament is due to expire. (11 November 2003
• Norwegian deputy foreign minister, Mr. Vidar Helgesen, and Solheim, arrived in Colombo Nov 10 night in an attempt to United National Front government and the Liberation Tiger morning conferred with the members of the Sri Lanka Monit 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ran attempt to defuse the current political crisis, but failed to November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 13 November 2003)
• Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) leader and Minister Rauf peace process only if they are allowed to take part as a sing November 2003)-(www.lankapage.com)
• Leader of the LTTE Velupillai Prabhakaran, today told the No Helgesen that the LTTE will remain committed to the peace (CFA) with Colombo. (12 November 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com 2003)
• Norway said it would suspend its efforts to end Sri Lanka's th president and prime minister resolved their power struggle. Helgesen, who stayed an extra day here for talks with the k which the Sri Lankan leader was in (AFP/http://uk.news.yahoo.com/031114/323/ee03w.html)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga has given Norweigian facili to the ceasefire agreement and the peace process, the Presid 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 15 November 2003)
• The LTTE has "changed quite a bit" for the better since a Nor year, the group's arch critic President Chandrika Kumaratu November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 16 November 2003)
• A compromise formula for the current political crisis is emerg Chairman Malik Samarawickreme and Presidential advisor M that President Chandrika Kumaratunga would return the portfolios back to the government while a special committee appointed to handle defence. This committee would include President Kumaratunga is scheduled to meet Premier Wic tomorrow. (16 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 17 November 2
• Arumugan Thondaman, who heads the biggest party of Indian Congress (CWC), has threatened to align with the LTTE, if a as proposed by President Chandrika Kumaratunga. The Thina party men in Nawalapitiya in Central Sri Lanka on Sunday, th joined a National Government, the CWC will hive off from th "work along with the LTTE." (17 November 2003)-(Hindustan T
• In a dramatic political decision, PA MP and President’s adviso resign from the PA if the main opposition party fails to sign a he and his fellow MPs in the PA took this decision at an inte Rosmead Place in Colombo. (17 November 2003)-(www.lankapa
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil W committee of officials to work out a national consensus o forward. Government sources said this committee would also which arose with the President sacking the Ministers of Defe November 4. (18 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 19 Novembe
• With the resumption of Parliamentary sessions this mornin Michael Perera today said that when Parliament is prorogued the Cabinet or the Prime Minister the majority of members s to reconvene (19 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 20 Novemb
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t and the LTTE have been postponed until the country's political hief peace negotiator G.L. Peiris said today. "Given everything that it is logical to assume that we have to resolve the threshold issue f. Peiris said. (11 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror ront/4.asp) on 12 November 2003)
ned further on November 11as MPs of the ruling United National Alliance (TNA) wrote to the Speaker of Parliament asking him to fore 19 November, the date on which President Kumaratunga’s xpire. (11 November 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com) Mr. Vidar Helgesen, and special peace envoy to Sri Lanka, Mr. Erik night in an attempt to revive the stalled peace talks between the and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), and on Nov 11 s of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, sources said. (11 November
and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe met yesterday in an tical crisis, but failed to make a breakthrough, sources said. (12 ovember 2003) eader and Minister Rauf Hakeem says his party would support the ed to take part as a single, independent party at future talks. (12
aran, today told the Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Mr. Vidar committed to the peace process and to the Cease-fire Agreement 2003)-(www.tamilnet.com and www.theacademic.org on 13 November
orts to end Sri Lanka's three decades of ethnic bloodshed until the ed their power struggle. Norwegian Deputy Prime Minister Vidar here for talks with the key players, said Oslo needed "clarity" on leader was in charge. (14 November 2003)- 323/ee03w.html) s given Norweigian facilitators firm assurances on her commitment eace process, the Presidential Secretariat said today. (14 November
03) r the better since a Norwegian-arranged truce went into effect last nt Chandrika Kumaratunga said in remarks published today. (15 ovember 2003) nt political crisis is emerging through the discussions between UNP d Presidential advisor Mano Tittawela. Political sources indicated unga would return the Interior and the Mass Communication hile a special committee headed by the President is expected to be mmittee would include government members as well. Meanwhile, to meet Premier Wickremesinghe for another round of talks y Mirror on 17 November 2003)
e biggest party of Indian Origin Tamils (IOT), the Ceylon Workers' align with the LTTE, if an all-party National Government is formed Kumaratunga. The Thinakaran Tamil daily quotes him as telling his l Sri Lanka on Sunday, that if Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe WC will hive off from the ruling United National Front (UNF) and ember 2003)-(Hindustan Times)
P and President’s advisor Anura Bandaranayake has said he would ition party fails to sign a MOU with the Marxist JVP. He added that k this decision at an internal party meeting held at his residence at
mber 2003)-(www.lankapage.com on 16 November 2003) d Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe today decided to appoint a a national consensus on key issues and take the peace process is committee would also look into how to solve the current crisis, ng the Ministers of Defence, Interior and Mass Communication on aily Mirror on 19 November 2003) ary sessions this morning after the prorogation, Speaker Joseph Parliament is prorogued in an arbitrary manner without consulting e majority of members should have the right to ask for Parliament r aily 2003
Mirror on 20 November 2003)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Concessions to the people through the third budget of the U salary increase of Rs.1250 for public servants, a 10 percent i for VAT and an increase in the fertilizer subsidy. (19 Novembe
• The Committee on Defence matters chaired by UNP Chairm Senior Advisor Mano Tittawella met yesterday at Temple Tre process and the economy. The committee is expected to final set by President Chandrika Kumaratuga. (21 November 2003)-(
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga has issued instructions for the LTTE as it started commemorating the 'Mahaveera' w commemorate the death of their 'heroes' began on Novemb leader Velupillai Prabhakaran's 50th birthday. (21 November 20
• The PA today emphasized that President Chandrika Kumarat and make a fresh start with the UNF government. PA spo conference in Colombo the new deal was being worked ou Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickr December 15. (21 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 22 Novemb
• Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said that to achieve lon a resolution of the differences of the two major parties observation on Saturday in Padaviya, after unveiling the pinnac Sripura Raja Maha Viharaya. (23 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror o
• The Tamil National Alliance today urged the President and t impasse without delay because the peace process runs the clarity and uncertainty. (24 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 25
• A reconsideration of the design of the Ceasefire agreement w talks between the government and the LTTE, the government a reconsideration of the design of the agreement," governmen 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 26 November 2003)
• European Union External Affairs Commissioner Chris Patten Prabhakaran during talks with him in Kilinochchi had pledged again to war. Mr. Patten whose birthday meeting with Mr. P groups said the Tiger chief during their one-hour meeting satisfactory political solution to the ethnic conflict. (26 Nov 2003)
• LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran in his annual message rejected accusations made by President Chandrika Kumaratun its military power and preparing for war. The LTTE leader als proposals submitted by his organization to establish an inter constitute the foundation for the creation of a separate stat November 2003)
• European Union External Affairs Commissioner Chris Pat community in the Sri Lankan peace talks to resolve the eth 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 29 November 2003)
• Amidst a tense and chaotic situation at the TULF office today, central committee was indefinitely postponed, party Preside 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 01 December 2003)
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he third budget of the UNF government today granted a minimum servants, a 10 percent increase in pensions, a 15 percent flat rate er subsidy. (19 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 20 November 2003) chaired by UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickreme and President's yesterday at Temple Trees for another round of talks on the peace ittee is expected to finalize their plans by December 15- a deadline ga. (21 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 22 November 2003) s issued instructions for the state media to refrain from criticizing ating the 'Mahaveera' week. The week in which the guerrillas roes' began on November 20 and will end on Thursday with their irthday. (21 November 2003)-(Sunday Times on 22 November 2003)
ent Chandrika Kumaratunga was ready to put the past behind her NF government. PA spokesman Sarath Amunugama told a news al was being worked out by a committee appointed by President Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe with its report expected by aily Mirror on 22 November 2003)
said that to achieve long-lasting peace and stability in the country, the two major parties was required. The Premier made this after unveiling the pinnacle of the newly constructed dagoba of the mber 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 24 November 2003) rged the President and the Prime Minister to resolve the political peace process runs the risk of being impaired due to the lack of
2003)-(Daily Mirror on 25 November 2003) e Ceasefire agreement will be discussed at the next round of peace e LTTE, the government spokesman said today. "There ought to be agreement," government spokesman G.L. Peiris said. (25 November 03) mmissioner Chris Patten said yesterday that LTTE leader Velupillai Kilinochchi had pledged six times that the Tigers would not resort day meeting with Mr. Prabhakaran was sharply criticised by some heir one-hour meeting had also reiterated his commitment to a ethnic conflict. (26 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 27 November
in his annual message commemorating the Heroes' Day today nt Chandrika Kumaratunga that his organization was strengthening war. The LTTE leader also firmly denied allegations that the recent ion to establish an interim administrative council in the Northeast eation of a separate state. (27 November 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 28
ommissioner Chris Patten has called for involving the Muslim talks to resolve the ethnic conflict in the country. (28 November 03) at the TULF office today, the seven hour long crucial meeting of the ostponed, party President V. Anandasangaree said. (30 November 03)
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F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CO
D
ECEMBER
2003
TO
16TH J
ANU
♦ A majority (66.8%) continue to express their uncertaint in Sri Lanka. This opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala 2003). There is an increase in the Muslim commu come soon to Sri Lanka, from 19.9% in Septemb November 2003. (Ref. Page 15)
♦ A majority (88.4%) continues to believe that Peace Talk have peace in Sri Lanka, which is an increase since July 2
♦ Sri Lankans continue to believe that the lack of political and political leaders (37.9%) are top two reasons why t war for the last 15 years. Within the Muslim comm the belief that corrupt military and political lead hasn’t been a solution from 29.6% in September 2003. (Ref. Page 17)
♦ 48.4% of Sri Lankans believe that the Government is co talks. The ethnic perspective shows that a majority of t Muslim (62.3%) and Up-country Tamil (60.9%) commun 18)
♦ 37.8% of Sri Lankans disagree with the statement that t
peace through talks, which is a decline from 50.3% in Se in opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala comm 2003 to 43.5% in November 2003). (Ref. Page 19)
♦ There is an increase in the belief that the Government
Commitment to peace, from 34.6% in September 2003 This increase in opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala c 2003 to 43% in November 2003). Looking at the other the Tamil community believe that the Governm its commitment to peace, which is a decline from There is also a decrease of 11.2% from September 2003 (21.8%), in the belief that the government goes in for ta war cannot be won. There is a significant decline in belief that the Government goes in for talks due (September 2003 – 59.7%, November 2003 – 32. community’s belief that International pressure is Government goes in for talks has heightened by (26.6%) to November 2003 (41.9%). 28.7% of the that the Government goes in for talks due to the cannot be won, a decrease from 41% in Septemb
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CE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
4TH 2003
TO
16TH J
ANUARY
2004
express their uncertainty as to when there will be peace s mainly from the Sinhala community (72.3% in November in the Muslim community’s opinion that peace will om 19.9% in September 2003 to 39.7% in
5)
o believe that Peace Talks is the way to end the war and is an increase since July 2003 (81.9%). (Ref. Page 16)
that the lack of political will (41.4%) and corrupt military e top two reasons why there hasn’t been a solution to the hin the Muslim community there is an increase in tary and political leaders are the reason why there 29.6% in September 2003 to 48.5% in November
at the Government is committed to find peace through hows that a majority of the Sinhala (47%), Tamil (45.2%), y Tamil (60.9%) communities believe the same. (Ref. Page
ith the statement that the LTTE is committed to find decline from 50.3% in September 2003. This decrease m the Sinhala community (57.8% in September r 2003). (Ref. Page 19)
ief that the Government goes in for talks due to its
4.6% in September 2003 to 40.8% in November 2003. mainly from the Sinhala community (35.3% in September 3). Looking at the other ethnic communities, 30.2% of ve that the Government goes in for talks due to which is a decline from 40.6% in September 2003. 2% from September 2003 (33%) to November 2003 overnment goes in for talks due to its realisation that this a significant decline in the Muslim community’s t goes in for talks due to Economic Hardship November 2003 – 32.7%). However, the Muslim ternational pressure is the reason that the lks has heightened by 15.3%, from September 2003 (41.9%). 28.7% of the Muslim community believe in for talks due to the realisation that this war from 41% in September 2003. (Ref. Page 20)
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♦ 34% of Sri Lankans believe that the LTTE goes in for tal 5.9% increase in the belief that the LTTE goes in for tal war cannot be won (September 2003 – 26.6%, Novemb 2003, 20.1% believe that the LTTE goes in for talks due opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala (18.6%), Tamil (1 communities. (Ref. Page 21)
♦ 23% believe in the widest range of involvement in nego
that only the Government and the LTTE should be invo believe that only the Government, LTTE and Internatio involved. Compared to the other communities, 49.5% o in the widest range of involvement, which is a decline si further 35.7% of the Muslim community believe that on LTTE, Tamil and Muslim parties should be involved in n since September 2003 (30.3%). Regarding the Tamil co only the Government, LTTE and International t which is a significant increase since September 2
♦ 59.5% of Sri Lankans believe that an International third
positive impact or is essential in the peace process. In c International third party’s involvement is not essential. Tamil (88.1%), Muslim (56.4%) and Up-country Tamil (5 third party’s involvement is essential. 22.2% of the Sinha (Ref. Page 23)
♦ While 32.8% approve of Norway assisting in the Sri Lan disapprove. While a majority (35.7%) of the Sinhala com assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process, a majority of t and Up-country Tamils (77.9%) communities approve o
♦ It is revealed in the results that Sri Lankans have a divid Norway continuing to facilitate talks (Approve – 28.9%, of Tamil (86.8%) and Up-country Tamil (71%) communi continuing to facilitate talks. Contrary, the Muslim com opinion with regard to Norway continuing to facilitate t approve nor disapprove – 30.2%, Disapprove – 22.7%, D 36% of the Sinhala community disapproves of Norway c Page 25)
♦ 55.8% of Sri Lankans believe that India’s involvement in
positive impact or is essential. On the contrary, 19.1% b not essential. While a majority of the Tamil (46.6%), Mu Tamil (62.6%) communities believe that India’s involvem Sinhala community (35%) believe that India’s involvemen the Sri Lankan peace process. (Ref. Page 26)
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t the LTTE goes in for talks to fool the people. There is a the LTTE goes in for talks due to the realisation that this r 2003 – 26.6%, November 2003 – 32.5%). In November TTE goes in for talks due to International Pressure. This
Sinhala (18.6%), Tamil (18.1%) and Muslim (38%)
e of involvement in negotiations. However, 11.6% believe
the LTTE should be involved in negotiations, while 10.2% ent, LTTE and International third party should be er communities, 49.5% of the Muslim community believe ent, which is a decline since September 2003 (55.5%). A mmunity believe that only the Government, Opposition, s should be involved in negotiations, which is an increase . Regarding the Tamil community, 52.4% believe that E and International third party should be involved, se since September 2003 (35.8%). (Ref. Page 22)
at an International third party’s involvement will have a n the peace process. In contrast, 19.8% believe that an lvement is not essential. Furthermore, a majority of the
and Up-country Tamil (54.6%) communities believe that a ential. 22.2% of the Sinhala community believe the same.
ay assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process, 31.1% 35.7%) of the Sinhala community disapprove of Norway e process, a majority of the Tamil (89.9%), Muslim (67.6%) ) communities approve of this. (Ref. Page 24)
t Sri Lankans have a divided opinion with regard to
talks (Approve – 28.9%, Disapprove – 32%). A majority ry Tamil (71%) communities approve of Norway ontrary, the Muslim community seems to have a divided y continuing to facilitate talks (Approve – 35%, Neither %, Disapprove – 22.7%, Don’t know/Not sure – 12.1%). disapproves of Norway continuing to facilitate talks. (Ref.
at India’s involvement in the peace process will have a On the contrary, 19.1% believe that India’s involvement is
of the Tamil (46.6%), Muslim (59.6%) and Up-country lieve that India’s involvement is essential, a majority of the ve that India’s involvement will have a positive impact on (Ref. Page 26)
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♦ Of those aware of the involvement of foreign monitors 33.2% believe such a monitoring mission will have a pos Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). From the ethnic perspecti community (37.1%) believe that such a mission will have of the CFA while, a majority of the Tamil (90.1%), Musl (52.4%) communities believe that such a monitoring mis
♦ There is a 6.6% decline in the belief that the Sri Lanka M
impartial in its monitoring of the CFA (September 2003 37%). This decline in opinion stems primarily from the S 2003 – 48.3%, November 41.2%). A majority of the Tam (74.4%) communities believe that the SLMM is impartial increase since September 2003 (Tamil – 56.6%, Up-cou 28)
♦ 34.8% believe that the SLMM is not effective in its moni decline from 40.7% in September 2003. This decline ste community (September 2003 – 45%, November 2003 – the Tamil (55.5%) and Up-country Tamil (68.5%) comm the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the CFA. (Ref
♦ Of those aware that the Government and the LTTE hav committed to finding a solution based on federalism wit disapprove of this agreement, while 35.4% approve of it majority of the Tamil (79.9%) and Up-country Tamil (84 majority (46.2%) of the Sinhala community disapprove o community, however, have a divided opinion in this reg agreement, while 49.1% disapprove. (Ref. Page 30)
♦ 29.1% believe that a federal system is the best way of go
increase from 21.9% in September 2003. This increas from the Sinhala (September 2003 – 12.1%, Nov Tamil (September 2003 – 73.6%, November 2003 - 77.9 36.3% express their disagreement, a decline from 47% i
♦ There is a divided opinion with regard to whether or n
secession. 32.3% believe a federal state will lead to sece won’t. While 77.5% of the Tamil community disagrees, agrees that a federal state will lead to secession. (Ref. Pa
♦ The results show a divided opinion with regard to whet
benefits within a federal state, i.e. 34.1% believe that wi have more benefits, while 28.6% don’t know or are uns believe that Sinhalese will have more benefits within a f believe that Muslims will have more benefits. (Ref. Page
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ent of foreign monitors in monitoring the ceasefire, g mission will have a positive impact on the success of the rom the ethnic perspective, a majority of the Sinhala t such a mission will have a positive impact on the success f the Tamil (90.1%), Muslim (59.5%) and Up-country Tamil
at such a monitoring mission is essential. (Ref. Page 27)
belief that the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) is not
e CFA (September 2003 – 43.6%, November 2003 – tems primarily from the Sinhala community (September %). A majority of the Tamil (75.6%) and Up-country Tamil at the SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of the CFA, an (Tamil – 56.6%, Up-country Tamil – 66.9%). (Ref. Page
s not effective in its monitoring of the CFA, which is a
er 2003. This decline stems mainly from the Sinhala
45%, November 2003 – 38%). However, a majority of try Tamil (68.5%) communities believe the contrary, i.e. nitoring of the CFA. (Ref. Page 29)
rnment and the LTTE have announced that they are
based on federalism within a united Sri Lanka, 40.8% while 35.4% approve of it. The approval stems from a
nd Up-country Tamil (84.7%) communities, while a community disapprove of this agreement. The Muslim ivided opinion in this regard, where 45.5% approve of this rove. (Ref. Page 30)
tem is the best way of governing this country, which is an ber 2003. This increase in opinion stems mainly er 2003 – 12.1%, November 2003 – 20.2%) and %, November 2003 - 77.9%) communities. In contrast, ent, a decline from 47% in September 2003. (Ref. Page 31)
regard to whether or not a federal state will lead to ral state will lead to secession, while 31.2% believe it il community disagrees, 38.1% of the Sinhala community lead to secession. (Ref. Page 32)
nion with regard to whether Tamils will have more i.e. 34.1% believe that within a federal state, Tamils will % don’t know or are unsure. However, 45.5% do not
more benefits within a federal state, and 43.6% do not more benefits. (Ref. Page 33 to Page 35)
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♦ A majority of the Tamil community (73.3%) believes tha
will equally benefit, while 47.8% of the Sinhala commun federal state everyone will equally benefit. The Muslim nor disagree – 33.9%, Disagree – 27.6%) and Up-countr agree nor disagree – 23.7%, Disagree – 24.4%, Don’t kn communities have a divided opinion with regard to this
♦ 37.7% say they will agree with a federal solution if it is a Lankans in comparison to 33.8% who say they will disag majority of the Tamil (54.1%), Muslim (66.7%) and Up-c communities say they will agree with a federal solution Sri Lankans. The Sinhala community, however, seem to regard, where 36.4% says they will disagree with a fede by a majority of Sri Lankans, while 32.3% say they will a
♦ A majority of 64.9% believe that the people are not bei
federalism. This opinion stems mainly from 70.2% of the of the Tamil community and 59% of the Up-country Ta opinion. 49.7% of the Muslim community however, beli adequately informed about federalism. (Ref. Page 38)
♦ While 34.5% are uncertain as to whether the interests the East are being adequately represented in the peace they are being adequately represented. 74.2% of the Mu same opinion. (Ref. Page 39)
♦ 69.6% of the Muslim community believes the current in interest and concerns of the Eastern Muslims in the pea impact on the peace process. 49.3% of the Sinhala comm community and 68.8% of the Up-country Tamil commu question are unable to comment on the impact on the degree of representation of the Eastern Muslims. (Ref. P
♦ 45.7% believe that there should be a separate Muslim d majority of the Sinhala (41.9%), Muslim (94%) and Up-c believe the same. The Tamil community however, have where 43.7% believe that there should be a separate M talks, while 40.3% do not believe so. (Ref. Page 41)
♦ Of those aware of the talks between the PA and JVP to
of this alliance, while 28.6% disapprove. 28% don’t know Tamil (70.7%), Muslim (63.8%) and Up-country Tamil (8 this alliance, while a majority of the Sinhala community (Ref. Page 43)
♦ There is a divided opinion with regard to the impact of
process. While 34.3% believe the alliance will have a po
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unity (73.3%) believes that within a federal state, everyone
of the Sinhala community does not believe that within a ally benefit. The Muslim (Agree – 28.1%, Neither agree
– 27.6%) and Up-country Tamil (Agree – 29%, Neither isagree – 24.4%, Don’t know/Not sure – 22.9%)
inion with regard to this. (Ref. Page 36)
a federal solution if it is approved by a majority of Sri % who say they will disagree. 20% are uncertain. A Muslim (66.7%) and Up-country Tamil (74.9%) e with a federal solution if it is approved by a majority of unity, however, seem to have a divided opinion in this will disagree with a federal solution even if it is approved hile 32.3% say they will agree. (Ref. Page 37)
at the people are not being adequately informed about
mainly from 70.2% of the Sinhala community, while 39.5% % of the Up-country Tamil community express the same ommunity however, believe that people are being eralism. (Ref. Page 38)
o whether the interests and concerns of the Muslims of epresented in the peace talks, 30.8% do not believe that esented. 74.2% of the Muslim community express the
ty believes the current inadequate representation of the astern Muslims in the peace talks will have a negative 9.3% of the Sinhala community, 41.5% of the Tamil p-country Tamil community who responded to this nt on the impact on the peace process with regard to the e Eastern Muslims. (Ref. Page 40)
d be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace talks. A , Muslim (94%) and Up-country Tamil (58%) communities mmunity however, have a divided opinion in this regard,
should be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace ve so. (Ref. Page 41)
tween the PA and JVP to form an alliance, 43.4% approve approve. 28% don’t know or are unsure. A majority of the and Up-country Tamil (86.4%) communities disapprove of f the Sinhala community (47.6%) approve of this alliance.
regard to the impact of this alliance on the peace the alliance will have a positive impact on the peace
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process, 34.2% believe it will have a negative impact. 16 have no impact on the peace process, while 14.7% don’ (39.4%) of the Sinhala community believe that this allian on the peace process, while a majority of the Tamil (82 country Tamil (88.5%) communities believe that this alli (Ref. Page 44)
♦ Of those who are aware of the LTTE’s Interim Self-Gov
proposal that was made public on the 1st November 20 this will have a negative impact on the peace process. H about the impact of this on the peace process, while 15 positive impact on the peace process. The ethnic persp Sinhala community and 81.3% of the Muslim community negative impact on the peace process. 38.4% of the Tam Up-country Tamil community believe that the ISGA pro (Ref. Page 46)
♦ 61% of those who are aware of the LTTE’s ISGA propo Government’s response to the proposal should be to n arrive at a compromise. Looking at the ethnic perspect (61.5%), Tamil (63.6%), Muslim (59.3%) and Up-country believe the same. 21.1% believe that the Sri Lankan Gov reject the proposal out right. (Ref. Page 47)
♦ Of those who are aware that the LTTE leader, Mr.Velu speech that the allegations levelled against their draft pr an independent Tamil state or that they contain steppin true, 52.1% are not convinced by this statement, while 19% are convinced by this statement. A majority of the (81.4%) communities are not convinced by this stateme country Tamil community are convinced by this statem however has a divided opinion with regard to this, whe statement, 34% are not convinced and 34.7% don’t kno
♦ Of those who are aware that on the 4th of November 2
Kumaratunga took over the Defence, Interior and Med Ministries, 51.8% approve of her decision to take o while 25% disapprove. 23.2% don’t know or are u perspective, a majority of the Sinhala (56.8%) and Musli of her decision, while a majority of Tamil (84.8%) and U communities disapprove. (Ref. Page 50)
♦ Of those who are aware that on the 4th of November 2
Kumaratunga took over the Defence, Interior and Med Ministries, 48.1% approve of her decision to take o while 26.3% disapprove. 25.6% don’t know or are perspective, 52.4% of the Sinhala community and 54.3%
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ave a negative impact. 16.8% believe that the alliance will rocess, while 14.7% don’t know or are unsure. A majority ity believe that this alliance will a have a positive impact majority of the Tamil (82.1%), Muslim (66.4%) and Up- nities believe that this alliance will have a negative impact.
LTTE’s Interim Self-Governing Authority (ISGA) on the 1st November 2003, a majority (52%) believes that on the peace process. However, 27.4% are uncertain peace process, while 15.1% believe that this will have a rocess. The ethnic perspective displays that 58.7% of the of the Muslim community believe that this will have a
rocess. 38.4% of the Tamil community and 58.3% of the believe that the ISGA proposal will have a positive impact.
f the LTTE’s ISGA proposal believe that the Sri Lankan
proposal should be to negotiate with the LTTE and ng at the ethnic perspective, a majority of the Sinhala
(59.3%) and Up-country Tamil (47.3%) communities also e that the Sri Lankan Government’s response should be to Ref. Page 47)
he LTTE leader, Mr.Velupillai Prabhakaran, stated in his lled against their draft proposals, that they aim to create that they contain stepping stones for separation, are not by this statement, while 28.9% don’t know or are unsure. ement. A majority of the Sinhala (58.6%) and Muslim onvinced by this statement, while 91.4% of the Up- convinced by this statement. The Tamil community
with regard to this, where 31.4% are convinced by this ced and 34.7% don’t know or are unsure. (Ref. Page 49)
n the 4th of November 2003, President Chandrika efence, Interior and Media & Mass Communication
her decision to take over the Defence Ministry, % don’t know or are unsure. Looking at the ethnic
inhala (56.8%) and Muslim (56.8%) communities approve ty of Tamil (84.8%) and Up-country Tamil (92.1%) Page 50)
n the 4th of November 2003, President Chandrika efence, Interior and Media & Mass Communication
her decision to take over the Interior Ministry, .6% don’t know or are unsure. Looking at the ethnic
la community and 54.3% of the Muslim community
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approve of her decision to take over the Interior Minist community and 89.3% of the Up-country Tamil commu
♦ Of those who are aware that on the 4th of November 2
Kumaratunga took over the Defence, Interior and Med Ministries, 47.2% approve of her decision to take o Communication Ministry. However 27% disappro 25.8% don’t know or are unsure. Looking at the eth Sinhala community and 52.5% of the Muslim community over the Media & Mass Communications Ministry. 83.9% 89% of the Up-country Tamil community disapprove. (R
♦ Of those Sri Lankans who are aware that on the 4t of N
Chandrika Kumaratunga prorogued parliament, 43.4% while 32.8% don’t know or are unsure. 23.8% app ethnic perspective exhibits that a majority of the Tamil (92.3%) communities disapprove of her decision to pro majority of the Muslim community (56.7%) approves of community has a divided opinion with regard to this, w decision, while 37.5% don’t know or are unsure. (Ref. P
♦ Of those who are aware of the President’s decision to
prorogue parliament, 40.5% believe that her decisio impact on the peace process. 26.8% don’t know o believe that it will have no impact on the peace perspective, a majority of the Sinhala (35.1%), Tamil (80 country Tamil (95.6%) communities believe that her de on the peace process. (Ref. Page 54)
♦ The Prime Minister said that he cannot take responsibil
the ministries are returned, and if they are not returned responsible for the peace process. 35.8% of Sri Lanka statement, while 34.4% are unsure or don’t know statement. From the ethnic perspective, a majority of country Tamil (63.5%) communities approve of this stat 24.9%, Disapprove – 38.6%, Don’t know/Not sure – 35 35.4%, Disapprove – 31.5%, Don’t know/Not sure – 24 a divided opinion. (Ref. Page 55)
♦ When asked whom they believe is best suited to lead th or the Prime Minister, a majority of 50% believe that bo Minister are suited to lead the peace process. This opin the Sinhala community and 62.6% of the Muslim commu that only the Prime Minister is suited to lead the peace only the President is suited. A majority of the Tamil (49 (83.9%) communities believe that only the Prime Minist process. (Ref. Page 56)

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e over the Interior Ministry. 83.5% of the Tamil
p-country Tamil community disapprove. (Ref. Page 51)
n the 4th of November 2003, President Chandrika efence, Interior and Media & Mass Communication her decision to take over the Media & Mass
owever 27% disapprove of her decision, while sure. Looking at the ethnic perspective, 51.5% of the of the Muslim community approve of her decision to take unications Ministry. 83.9% of the Tamil community and ommunity disapprove. (Ref. Page 52)
aware that on the 4th of November 2003, President gued parliament, 43.4% disapprove of her decision, are unsure. 23.8% approve of her decision. The t a majority of the Tamil (84.2%) and Up-country Tamil ve of her decision to prorogue parliament, while a nity (56.7%) approves of her decision. The Sinhala on with regard to this, where 38.7% disapprove of her ow or are unsure. (Ref. Page 53)
President’s decision to take over the ministries and to elieve that her decisions will have a negative ss. 26.8% don’t know or are unsure, while 24.1% impact on the peace process. Looking at the ethnic inhala (35.1%), Tamil (80.1%), Muslim (38.2%) and Up- nities believe that her decision will have a negative impact e 54)
e cannot take responsibility for the peace process unless d if they are not returned, then the President is now ess. 35.8% of Sri Lankans disapprove of this
unsure or don’t know. 29.8% approve of this erspective, a majority of the Tamil (72.4%) and Up- nities approve of this statement. The Sinhala (Approve – on’t know/Not sure – 35.3%) and Muslim (Approve – on’t know/Not sure – 24.2%) communities, however, have
)
e is best suited to lead the peace process, the President ity of 50% believe that both the President and Prime peace process. This opinion stems mainly from 52.9% of 6% of the Muslim community. 19.2% of Sri Lankans believe suited to lead the peace process, while 17.7% believe that majority of the Tamil (49.7%) and Up-country Tamil
at only the Prime Minister is suited to lead the peace
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♦ Of those who are aware that the Norwegians tempora
facilitators of the Sri Lankan peace process, 48.1% disap 31.5% approve of their decision, 20.4% don’t know or a Sinhala (46.1%), Tamil (63.3%) and Up-country Tamil (6 their decision while 52.7% of the Muslim community ap
♦ 56.7% believe that the Norwegians’ decision to suspend
a negative impact on the peace process. Looking at the the Sinhala (54.1%), Tamil (56.9%), Muslim (49.9%) and communities believe that same. 19.2 % don’t know or a that their decision will have no impact. (Ref. Page 58)
♦ Of those who are aware that the UNF Government pr
November 2003, 61.5% are dissatisfied with the new bu are unsure. 19.4% are satisfied. While a majority of the and Up-country Tamil (72%) communities are dissatisfie divided opinion in this regard (Satisfied – 39.7%, Dissati
♦ 40.1% believe that this 3rd Budget, presented by the UN
impact on the current peace process. However, 36.1% this budget on the current peace process. 19.1% believe negative impact on the peace process. Looking at the e the Tamil (66.3%) and Up-country Tamil (53.2%) believ impact on the current peace process. 38.7% of the Mus have a negative impact. The Sinhala community howeve regard where 38.7% believe that it will have no impact and 37.5% are uncertain about the impact. (Ref. Page 60
♦ 32.5% of Sri Lankans state that they are aware of the U impeach the Chief Justice Sarath N. Silva. Of those who Governments decision, 56.9% disapprove of this decisio unsure. 18.9%, however, approve of this decision. Look majority (61.2%) of the Sinhala community disapprove o of the Tamil community don’t know or are unsure, whi Muslim community approve of this decision. The Up-co have a divided opinion in this regard, where 49% appro disapprove. (Ref. Page 61 and Page 62)
♦ Of those who are aware that the European Union (EU) Mr. Chris Patten met with LTTE leader, Mr. Velupillai P November 2003, 37.8% approve of this meeting while 3 know or are unsure. A majority of the Tamil (92.1%) an communities approve of this meeting. The Sinhala (Disa sure – 35.5%) and Muslim (Approve – 50.3%, Disapprov have divided opinions in this regard. (Ref. Page 64)

ndex
he Norwegians temporarily suspended their role as ace process, 48.1% disapprove of their decision, while n, 20.4% don’t know or are unsure. A majority of the and Up-country Tamil (61.5%) communities disapprove of he Muslim community approve. (Ref. Page 57)
ians’ decision to suspend their role as facilitators will have process. Looking at the ethnic perspective a majority of 9%), Muslim (49.9%) and Up-country Tamil (98.7%)
. 19.2 % don’t know or are unsure, while 15.5% believe
impact. (Ref. Page 58)
he UNF Government presented its 3rd budget on the 19th satisfied with the new budget, while 19.1% don’t know or . While a majority of the Sinhala (62.9%), Muslim (59.1%) ommunities are dissatisfied, the Tamil community have a Satisfied – 39.7%, Dissatisfied – 37.8%). (Ref. Page 59)
get, presented by the UNF Government, will have no rocess. However, 36.1% are uncertain about the impact of ce process. 19.1% believe that this budget will have a rocess. Looking at the ethnic perspective a majority of try Tamil (53.2%) believe that the budget will have no rocess. 38.7% of the Muslim community believe that it will
hala community however has a divided opinion in this at it will have no impact on the current peace process,
the impact. (Ref. Page 60)
they are aware of the UNF Government’s decision to th N. Silva. Of those who are aware of the UNF disapprove of this decision while 24.2% don’t know or are
ve of this decision. Looking at the ethnic perspective, a community disapprove of this decision. A majority (45%) know or are unsure, while a majority (50.7%) of the
this decision. The Up-country Tamil community however egard, where 49% approve of this decision, while 46.5% age 62)
he European Union (EU) External Relation Commissioner, E leader, Mr. Velupillai Prabhakaran, on the 26th ve of this meeting while 33.3% disapprove. 28.9% don’t y of the Tamil (92.1%) and Up-country Tamil (77.1%) eeting. The Sinhala (Disapprove – 38.7%, Don’t know/Not rove – 50.3%, Disapprove – 44.8%) communities both gard. (Ref. Page 64)
r 2003
Page 13

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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ 33.8% of those who are aware of Chris Patten’s visit to will have a positive impact on the peace process. 29.3% while 22.5% believe that this will have a negative impact Sinhala (Will have a positive impact – 30.7%, Don’t kno (Will have no impact – 46.5%, Will have a positive impa divided opinion in this regard. However a majority of th believe that this visit will have a negative impact, while a Tamil community (64.7%) believe that this visit will have
♦ 41.9% believe that cohabitation between the current Pr be advantageous for good governance. 27.4% are uncer cohabitation. From the ethnic perspective, a majority o (39.1%) and Up-country Tamil (36.2%) communities bel advantageous for good governance. A majority of the M however, are uncertain about its results. (Ref. Page 66)
♦ While 51.9% do not believe that constructive cohabitat
Prime Minister is possible. 48.1% believe it is possible. A Muslim (67.1%) and Up-country Tamil (80.9%) commun constructive cohabitation is possible, while the Sinhala c (Yes – 53.2%, No – 46.8%). (Ref. Page 67)
For further information ple
Reshma Harjani or Prade
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Altern
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://

ndex
of Chris Patten’s visit to Sri Lanka believe that this visit he peace process. 29.3% are uncertain about its impact, ill have a negative impact on the peace process. The pact – 30.7%, Don’t know/Not sure – 35.1%) and Tamil Will have a positive impact – 43.2%) communities have a However a majority of the Muslim community (45.6%) a negative impact, while a majority of the Up-country ve that this visit will have a positive impact. (Ref. Page 65)
between the current President and Prime Minister will rnance. 27.4% are uncertain about the result of the perspective, a majority of the Sinhala (43.9%), Tamil
(36.2%) communities believe that cohabitation will be ance. A majority of the Muslim community (39.7%), its results. (Ref. Page 66)
at constructive cohabitation between the President and
% believe it is possible. A majority of the Tamil (88.1%), y Tamil (80.9%) communities do not believe that ssible, while the Sinhala community have a divided opinion f. Page 67)
rther information please contact:
eshma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 1 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
r 2003
Page 14

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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDE
M
AY
2001 – N
OVEMBER
2
T
HE
P
ERCEPTION OF
W
AR AND
P
EACE
When will there be peace in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
80
21.1
24.8
May '01 September
'01
71.3 70
63.8
57.9
57.2
60.1 60
53.9
54.5
60
58.4
58.6
57.6
6
50
%
40
30
20
11
13.4
0
Ethnic Breakdown
8
18.9
24.8
22.1
10.2
9.9 6.7 4.9
6.8
9
7.2
21
17.7 1
10
7.6 10.6
7.5
10.4
8.2
January '02
May '02 September
'02
January '03
23.5
Up-country Tamil
2.8
8.4
12.1
24.9
26.1
2.9
3.6
33
Muslim
2.2
17.4
39.7
Tamil
0.8 2
12.9
52.5
4.3
24.6
Sinhala
3
4.4
5.1
6.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

I C
ONFIDENCE
NDEX
(PCI)
2001 – N
OVEMBER
2003
D
P
EACE
in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
58.6
60.1
60.4
64.5
66.8
.4 57.6
61.9
60.4
Soon
Never
1.1
24.8
21
17.7 17.3
19.3
Don't know
7.6
11.5 6.4
September '02
thnic Breakdown
39.7
72.3
15.3
11.9
10.4
8.2
10
8.5
8.7
10.3
January '03
May '03 September
'03
Don't know Never Not in my life time
52.5
Within the next ten years Within the next five years Soon
0 50 60 70 80
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
S
OLUTIONS TO THE
C
ONFLICT
How do you think we can end the war and [Multiple Answers]
Ethnic Breakdown
8
National Trend
100
90
80.7
5.5
May '01 September
'01
87.2
59.1
86
71.3
85
84.4
83.7
83.7
86
80
68.6
71.9
70
60
%
50
40
30
18
24.4
20
7.6
0
19.9 20
10
9.9
7
10.1
7.2 1.3
0.8 1 0.9
1.1
0.8
1 6.5
10
0.8
1.1 0.3
0
January '02
May '02 September
'02
January '03
9 Up-country Tamil
2.8 0
0
0.3
%
94 Muslim
0
0.1
Tamil
0.4
87 Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10

n end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
86
83.7
83.7
88.4
5.5
nic Breakdown
87
86.7 87.4
81.9
84.6
eptember
'02
Government defeating the LTTE
LTTE defeating the Government
Peace talks
7.2
6.5
11.1
9.1
6.8
1
1.1 10.4
7 8
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.5 0.2 0.4
January '03
May '03 September
'03
97.2
94.4
0 70 80 90 100 110
Peace talks
97.8
LTTE defeating the Government
Government defeating the LTTE
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think there hasn’t been a solution odd years? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
50
46.2
37.3 34.1
7.5
May '01 November
'01
44.2 44
40.5
44.2
41.8
7.3
8.6
9.3
4.8
39.1
39.4 40
33.4
38.5
36.7
37.1
41.4
30.1
30.9
34.8
31.8 30
30.3
35
30.6
30.2
33.1
32.7
%
20
25.8
24.5
22.2
21.2
20.7
19.5
19.1
18.5
18.6
18.2
13.1
10
11.3
10.6 10.5
0
6.5 6.5
7
0
May '02 November
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
36.8
M
17.9
Up-country Tamil
2.6
5.6
17.4
33.5
0
15.2
20.5 9.8 5.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
36.2
Muslim
2.2
5.2
6.8
27.8
37.6
40.6
48.5
14.1
36 Tamil
0
43.9
62.6
Sinhala

asn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15
ers]
National Trend
44
40.5
44.2
41.8
44
42.8
32.5
10.5
7
44.2
41.4
41.4
37.9
32.7
7.5
Corrupt military and political leaders
No political will
LTTE does not want peace
War is necessary for people in power
ic Breakdown
43.9
34.2
33.1
34.8
30.2
19.5
19.1
15.7
14 17.6
November '02
20.3
18.2
13.1
11.3
10.6 7.6
4.8
8.5
May '03 November
'03
Don't know
War is necessary for people in power LTTE does not want peace 48.5
The strength of the LTTE
No political will
Corrupt military and political leaders
0.6
62.6
50 60 70
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
C
ONFIDENCE
I think the Government is committed to find pe
National Trend
80
69.8
70.2
70
63.7 61.8 58
59.4 60
50.2
53
56.
50
43.8 44 %
40
31.4
30
23.8
22.5
24.5
20
11.9
9.8
9.1
12
15.1
18.6
20.9
10
0
May '01 November '01 May '02 November '02
Ethnic Breakdown
5
Up-country Tamil
16.1
12.6
Muslim
14.6
20.9
Tamil
22.4
25.9
47
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
45.2
Sinhala
14.6

committed to find peace through talks.
National Trend
0.2
63.7
59.4
56.7
50.1
53.9
48
44
48.4
24
2
Agree
Disagree
ic Breakdown
47
30.3
22.5
21.6
15.1
18.6
20.9
19.1
November '02 May '03 November '03
60.9
40 50 60 70
Disagree
62.3
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
45.2
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace th
National Trend
80
68.5 70
63.5
60
50.6
53.2
50
45.7
%
40
42.7
32.9
39.5
38.2
39.8 38.9 30
20
15.8
17.3
12.9
22.2
27.3
25.7
27.5
28.3
29.3 29 9.8 10
0
May '01 November '01 May '02 November '02
Ethnic Breakdown
2.8
Up-country Tamil
13.4
43.5
15.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
64.5
13.6
Muslim
31.9
39
2.4
Tamil
5
Sinhala
21.6

itted to find peace through talks.
National Trend
.7
45.7
44.9
50.3
38.2
39.8
38.9 47.2
37.8
22.5
18.2
November '02 May '03 November '03
Agree
Disagree
7.5
28.3
29.3
29 25.7
20.5
19.7
thnic Breakdown
64.5
85.4
43.5
50 60 70 80 90
%
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the Government go Answers]
National Trend
60
50
39
41.7
44.6
48.8
45.3
42.1
40
35.8
39.5
38.3
38.3
38
37.5
33.4
27
20.1
June '01 November
'01
35.5
28.9
33.2
32.4
32.5
%
30
29.9
28.6
29.6
24.5
24.1
28.9
24.6
15.5
24.1
27.2
2
20
18.6
18
19.9
19.8
24.1 17.2 19.7
17.6 16.2
12.2 9.7
12.4
10
10.3
8.4
11.9
10.6
7.18.8 14.1
12.9
10
14.5
8
10.3
10.9
0
7.1
9.5
7.4
4.5
4.2 3.5 4.3
3.2
3.9
6.6
5.2
March '02 July '02 November
March '03 '02
Ethnic Breakdown
3.6
7.3 Up-country Tamil
19.9
1.4
17.4
43
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
31.5
28.9
43.4
6.2
38.7
9.6
15.9
27.3 Muslim
28.7
41.9 32.7 20.1
2.9 0 Tamil
21.8
29.2
43.1 30.2
Sinhala

the Government goes in for talks? [Multiple
National Trend
.1
38.3
38
36.8
40.2
34.6
20.1
Commitment to peace
38.3
40.8
Economic hardship 2.5
.1
29.9
28.6
27.2
International pressure
24.1
22.8
19.5
Realisation that this war cannot be won
To fool the people
10.6
Lack of manpower
ic Breakdown
43
29
23.8
22.4
29.2
28.1
24.6
20.7
14.1
12.9
13.1
18.2
20.3
16.6
10.3
10.3 10.9 7.1.8
3.9
6.6
5.2
11 11.2 3.7 4.6
10.3
2.9
2.1
November '02
March '03 July '03 November
'03
31.5
8.9
43.4
29.2
38.7
43.1
Lack of manpower
.3 8.7
41.9
To fool the people
32.7
Realisation that this war cannot be won
International pressure
30.2
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
0 40 50
Page 20

Page 24
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for tal
National Trend
50
44.9
40
34.6
31.3
31.5
30.8
30
%
29.1
27.3
22.4
24.5
23.4
27.4
June '01 November
'01
27.9
25.1
24.7
27.7
18.7
18.3
20.4
19
30.8
28.7
228.5
25.6
25
20.5
18.5
15.2
16.1
16.1
12.3
14.5
Ethnic Breakdown
15.7
23.9
22.5 20
23.2
20
16.7
15.4
14.9
19.1
16.9
18.6
18.2 18.1
14.6
16.7
15.7
13.8
14.6
15.5
8.9
16.5
14. 13.1
12.8
1
0
14.9
15.9
13.9
13.9
10
12.5
12.8
14.4
12.4
10.3
13.2
12.6
8.5
6.6
March '02 July '02 November
'02
March '03
4.6
Up-country Tamil
8.2
23.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
29.2
34.7
39.1
18.6
35.2
10.1
15.7
8.1
29.6 Muslim
33
38 29.4
0.7 0 Tamil
4.6
18.1 5.6
9.7
37.9 Sinhala

e LTTE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
10.2
Commitment to peace 37.3
35.3
34
Economic hardship
30.8
28.7
28.5
29.1 32.5
25.6
25
24.3 26.6
22.5 20
20.5
18.5
23.2
22.1
21.9
20.1
International pressure
13.9
.6 16.1
16.1
16.7
15.7 20
19.2
12.8
14.5
17.9 15.3 12.4
12.2
Realisation that this war cannot be won
16.5
14.6
12.9
1 0.3
13.2
12.6
11.9
To fool the people
9.4
Lack of manpower
nic Breakdown
54.7
11
10.4
November '02
12.2
March '03 July '03 November
'03
9.2
34.7
39.1 35.2
38 9.4
Lack of manpower 9.6
33
To fool the people
Realisation that this war cannot be won
International pressure
Economic hardship 37.9
Commitment to peace
40 50 60
Page 21

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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
T
HE
P
EACE
P
ROCESS
Who should be involved in negotiations?
Ethnic Breakdown
9.3
National Trend
40
36.7
32.1
33.9
30
31.3
25.1
25.8
27
23
21.6
21.7 19.9
21.9
20.3 %
20
16.2
19
15.9
16.4
19.1
18.3
15.5
12.4
13.5
15.1
14.2
14 15.5
12.1
11
16.6
16.4
17.2
18.6
10
6.6
9.5
12.9
9.8
4.3 4
4.8
2.1
2.1 2.5 2.4
1.9
1.4
1
1.5
0
May '01 November '01 May '02 November '02 M
0
12.3
Up-country Tamil
2
3.7 6
10
12.3
46.4
0
Muslim
0
1.1
2.7
8.6
35.7
49.5
1.6
0
6.3
Tamil
1.1 1.2
2.4
24.6
1.5
6.7
11.9
52.4
12.7
Sinhala
12.2 12.3
19.9
8.1
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

n negotiations?
National Trend
26.7
11.6
hnic Breakdown
35.7
Govt. and LTTE only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third party
No peace talks
27
21.9
25.1
20.3
18.3
23.3
16.4
13.9
6.8
22
23
1.2
9
16.6
18.6
1.9 0.9
17.2
12.5
9.8
9.5
9.3 6.6
9.5
10.2 12.9
4
1.9
1.4
1
1.5 1.3
November '02 May '03 November '03
46.4
52.4
40 50 60
Don't know
No peace talks
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt. and LTTE only
49.5
Page 22

Page 26
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NTERNATIONAL
F
ACILITATION
What is your opinion of the need for an in involvement to solve the North East war in Sri
National Trend
16
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
40
38
35.8
30
32.6
28.9
32.5 32.5
30.9
31.9
30.2
30.6 29.8
3
24.2
29
28.8
29
29 29.3
21.8
20.9
26.1
%
20
16.8
16.5
14.2
10 9.6
9.6
10.2
September '01 March '02 September '02 March '03
Ethnic Breakdown
22.2
17.9
13.1
13.2
14.2
16.7
16.2
1
11.3 10
9.9
11.3
9.2
11.6
9.5
5.4
0.7
10.3
10.5 10.2
3.2
2.1
0
5.4
5.7
4.3
0.9
1.4
4.6
1.4 1.6 1.4
11.8
1.6
1.4
9.9 Up-country Tamil
0.5
18.6
6.3
10.3
1.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10
%
54.6
10
12.9 Muslim
0.9
12.9
2.8
33.9
56.4
2.4
4.4 Tamil
0
3.6
88.1
21.8 Sinhala

F
ACILITATION
f the need for an international third party’s North East war in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
30.2
32.1
30.5
30.7
30.3
29 29.3
26.2
29.2
5.4
1.4
30.6 29.8
Is essential
Will add a positive impact Will have no impact
Will add a negative impact Is not essential
Don't know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
88.1
31.7
29
28.6
19.5 19.2 16.7
17.9
16.2
14.5
19.8
10.5 9.5
10.2
10
9.9
9.6
9.9
.4
4.6
5.7
4.3
3.7 3.7
1.4 1.6
1
2.8 0.9
2.1 1.7 r '02 March '03 September '03
.6
0 70 80 90 100
Don't know/Not sure
Is not essential
6.4
Will add a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will add a positive impact
Is essential
Page 23

Page 27
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
N
ORWEGIAN
F
ACILITATION
Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace proce
National Trend
60
53.8
50
50.7
42.4
46.3
40
42.7
37
42.3
38
%
30
24.5
22.4
23 8.8
10.2
11.1
11
January '02 May '02 September
'02
28.2
29.8
20.5
23.1
19.4
22.8
9.1 7.8
0
Ethnic Breakdown
24.4
22.
20
18 18
17.9
22.1
21.8
18.7
21
15.5 10
13.6
12.8 January '03 May
9.4
Up-country Tamil
3
9.7
2.7
35.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 9
%
77.9
11.7
Muslim
7.4
13.3
25.1
14.7
67.6
5.6
Tamil
1.8
Sinhala

i Lankan peace process
National Trend
.3
42.3
38
43.3
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
13.4
Don't know /Not
10.8
sure
ic Breakdown
89.9
34.6
36 32.8
28.2
29.8
33
22.7
29.5
19.3
31.1
20.5
18.7
21
21.1
22.6 .8
14.6
.8
10.2
11.1
11.8
January '03 May '03 September
'03
77.9
60 70 80 90 100
Don't know/Not sure
67.6
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Norway continuing to facilitate talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
22.5
National Trend
50
41.3
September '02
44.1
38.2
42.6
40
38.7
%
30
29.4
26.9
22.6
23.3
22.2 19.7
13.6
10.7
20.9
20
21.8
0
21.8
21.8
11.9
13.2
10
12.4
November '02
January '03 March '03 May '03 Jul
10.1
Up-country Tamil
5.4
13.5
6.8
3.1
25.6
36
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
71
12.1
Muslim
22.7
30.2
15.7
35
Tamil
1.8
Sinhala

ilitate talks.
National Trend
42.6
33.8
28.9
2
15.7
12.4
thnic Breakdown
86.8 32.2
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
Don't know/Not sure
32
23.2
32 9
31.9
22.2
21.3
19.9
21.8
13.8 13.4
'03 May '03 July '03 September
'03
November '03
71
50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Don't know/Not sure
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NDIA
’
S
I
NVOLVEMENT
What is your opinion of the need for India’ Lankan peace process?
National Trend
50
40
35.9
39.6
31.7
33.8
32.7
35.5
27
19.2
22.3
16.2
May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03
30 30
%
26.1
26.6
20.8 2
20
16.2
16.4
15.6
14.9
18.6
14.3
13
2.7
0
1.2
Ethnic Breakdown
18.9
17.4
16.8
15.8
13.6
1
10
13.1
12.5
13.5
3.5
5.9 8.4 9.2
7.1
5.6
12.4
5.3 6
1.9
1.3 1.7
3
1.6 1 5.8 9.3 Up-country Tamil
1.3
7.4
12
5.9
Muslim
0.2
4.6
18.4
9.8
7
33.1 Tamil
0.4
1.4
9.9
13.8
18.8
1.9
5.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
46.6
Sinhala
35

f the need for India’s involvement in the Sri
National Trend
35.9
39.6
31.2
27.4 22.3
2
Is essential
Will add a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will add a negative impact
Is not essential
Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
46.6
30.4
3
27.9
27.5
24.6
18.6
15.8
15.9
17.9
19.1 13.6
13 12.4 12.9
12.8
12.7
5.6 5.3 6.1 5.7
1.6 1.6 2.1
5
May '03 September '03
62.6
35
Don't know/Not sure
Is not essential
59.6
Will add a negative
3.1
impact
Will have no impact
Will add a positive impact
Is essential
40 50 60 70
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
R
ECENT
P
OLITICAL
D
EVELO
S
RI
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
If you are aware of the involvement of foreig the ceasefire, what is your opinion of the ne mission for the ceasefire agreement to succeed
Ethnic Breakdown
21.5
National Trend
50
37.9
39.4
39.3
40.5
41.5
37.5
43
25.3
43
40
33.6 31.2
30
26.7 26.3
29.7
26.7
29
%
20
10.3 10
7.3
4.6
5.6
8.4 6.7
5.2 5.6
9.6
6.9
7.2
5.8
4.5
7.5
5.2
3.8
4.2
4.1
3.7 1.7 March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03
5.3 2.8
0
4.2
1.4
1.9
4.1 1.9
1.7 0.6
0.4 0. 0
Up-country Tamil
0.3
1.2
3.6
37.7
3.2
23.9
0
0
3
6.5
%
52.4
0
Muslim
0.8
9.3
59.5
4.9 Tamil
1.5
1.7
90.1
2.7
14.9 Sinhala
37.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
ION
nvolvement of foreign monitors in monitoring ur opinion of the need for such a monitoring
greement to succeed?
National Trend
43
43.5
33.2
29.4
3.9
6.8
2.8
c Breakdown
90.1
Is essential 7.5
32
Will have a positive impact 29
25.3
26.7
27.2
26.6
Will have no impact
24.8
Will have a negative
15.8
impact
12.1 9.6
6.9
7.2
8.5
9.1 13.2
Is not essential
7.5
5.2
Will be a threat to 4.1
the sovereignty of 1.7
Sri Lanka 3.7
0.4
5.3 2.8
5.4
0.2 0.6 1.2
2.2
March '03 July '03 November '03
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka Is not essential
9.5
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
Is essential
70 80 90 100
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is imp the ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
50
40
35.5
29
31.7
33.2
30.3
32.8
32.1
30
33.1
26.8
27.4
%
28.9
23.6
27.6
27
30.1
18
14.6
May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03
Ethnic Breakdown
14.6
21.3
19.6
0
22.5
21.4
20
15.7
22.8
18 17.8
19.2
18.9
17.4
10
15.4
Up-country Tamil
0
10.2
5.8
Muslim
31.7
38.7
23.8
13.1
Tamil
3.6
7.7
26.8
Sinhala
17.4
41.2
0 10 20 30 %
40 50 60 7

itoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of
National Trend
43.6
32.8
32.1
31.3
37
21.3
19.6
24.4 21.4
17.2
Agree
27.6
27
30.1
26.9
Neither agree
21.9
23.6
nor disagree
18.1
Disagree 2
18.9
17.4
19.6
14.4
Don't know/Not sure
y '03 May '03 September '03
hnic Breakdown
74.4
38.7
75.6
41.2
0 50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effe the ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
50
40
33 31.4
%
30
26.1
28.7
30.5
28
30.6
29.4
26
24.3
26.6
24
29.4
22.8
July '02 November '02 March '03 July
2
21.3
25.7
19.3
20.3
21.4
19.7
22.4
19.1 18
Ethnic Breakdown
14.9
21.1
22
0
24.8
23.8 20
10
18.7
Up-country Tamil
2.2
10.7
27.2
38
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
68.
7.7
Muslim
46.5
19.7
27.9 17
28.7
Tamil
2.8
13
55.5
Sinhala

itoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of
National Trend
22.8
40.7
0.6
29.4
2.4
33
34.8
25.6 29.4
26
19.7
Agree
24
21.1
22.8
Neither agree nor disagree 22.4 19.1
Disagree
19.1
19.4 17.1
Don't know/Not sure
rch '03 July '03 November '03
Breakdown
55.5
18.6
68.5
46.5
50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
FEDERAL SOLUTION
If you are aware that the Government and th that they are committed to finding a solution b a united Sri Lanka, please tell me do you app agreement?
National Trend
50
44.2
45
41.7
40
36.1
33.3 34.1
32.4
28.8 30
%
30.6
24 23.1
26 20
10
0
March '03 May '03 July '03 September
Ethnic Breakdown
8 Up-country Tamil
5.4
5.3 Muslim
49.1 45.5
10.3 Tamil
9.8
26.7
46.2 26.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
7
Sinhala

e Government and the LTTE have announced to finding a solution based on federalism within e tell me do you approve or disapprove of this
National Trend
4.2
45
35.4
3.1
26
ly '03 September '03 November '03
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
79.9
40.8
2.4
28.8
23.2
84.7
49.1
6.2
0 60 70 80 90 5.5
Don’t know/Not sure
Disapprove
Approve
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I believe a federal system is the best way of gov
National Trend
50
21.9
8
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
47
40
36
30
29.1
%
20
12.3
10
0
Ethnic Breakdown
20.2
Disagree
6.7
Up-country Tamil
7.1
23.2
24.9
42.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
63
4.8
Muslim
14.7
33
12.6
47.4
16.2
Tamil
2.2
3.6
Sinhala

is the best way of governing this country.
National Trend
47
36.3
23.1
22.3
or Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
September '03 November '03
thnic Breakdown
63
77.9
42.3
0 50 60 70 80 90
%
Don't know/ Not sure
47.4
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think a federal state will lead to secession.
National Trend
50
41.8
40
32.3
11.8 9.8
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
31.2
30
0
27.5
%
20
10
Ethnic Breakdown
38.1
Disagree
14.8
Up-country Tamil
19.5
61.6
4.1
5.9
Muslim
35.8
45.5
12.8
15.4
Tamil
0.6
6.4
27.4
Sinhala
11.5
23
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

lead to secession.
National Trend
31.2
27.5
24.7
20.9
r Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
September '03 November '03
hnic Breakdown
.1
61.6
50 60 70 80 90
Don't know/ Not sure 45.5
Disagree
77.5
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal state Tamils will have more be
Ethnic Breakdown
8.4
National Breakdown
28.6
34.1
18.2
19.1
28.6
National
18.2
19.1
31.9 15.9
0 10 20 30
%
34.1
13.9
21.2
Up-country Tamil
21.6
14.6
8
Muslim
15
34.2
13.8
Tamil
Sinhala

mils will have more benefits.
nal Breakdown
34.1
19.1
Ethnic Breakdown
38.3
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Don't know/ Not sure
28.6
34.1
1.2
40.7
30 40 50 21.6
Don't know/ Not sure
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
31.9
42.6
37
42.8 34.2
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal state Sinhalese will have more
Ethnic Breakdown
4.9
National Breakdown
6 28.9
19.
45.5
28.9
National
19.6
0 10 20 30 40
4
6
19.5
Up-country Tamil
25.4
33.7
32.5
13.9
%
43. 11.4
7
Muslim
34.2
10.5
13.8
Tamil
41.9 10.6
Sinhala

halese will have more benefits.
tional Breakdown
19.6
Ethnic Breakdown
41.9
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Don't know/ Not sure
28.9
45.5
.4
43.7
Don't know/ Not sure
34.2
Disagree
48.2
Neither agree nor disagree 33.7
Agree
32.5
48.7
30 40 50 60
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal state Muslims will have more b
Ethnic Breakdown
2
National Breakdown
3.1
33
20.3
43.6
33
National
20.3 3.1
19.5
Up-country Tamil
29.7
4.4
7
Muslim
17.7
15.1
Tamil
5.4
Sinhala
15.1
0 10 20 30
%

slims will have more benefits.
onal Breakdown
20.3
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
43.6
Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
33
42.6
30 40 50 %
43.6 .3
29.7
46.4
Don't know/ Not sure
Disagree 37.3 38
Neither agree nor disagree 37
Agree
37.4
45.5
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Within a federal state everyone will equally ben
Ethnic Breakdown
15.3
National Breakdown
25.5
22.4
1
41.4
25.5
National
10.7
41.4
22.4
22.9
Up-country Tamil
24.4 23.7
29
10.4
Muslim
27.6
33.9 28.1
15.8
Tamil
3.6
7.2
27.6
Sinhala
9.3
47.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

ryone will equally benefit.
nal Breakdown
22.4
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree
10.7
Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
41.4
73.3
40 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know/ Not sure
Disagree
3.9
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
47.8
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I will agree with a federal solution if it is appr Lankans.
Ethnic Breakdown
32.3
National Trend
40
37.7 37.6 30.7
13.4
8.4
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
33.
30
%
20
10
0
Disagree
4
Up-country Tamil
7.6
13.5
0.5
Muslim
6.8
26
22.4
36.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
%
66
8.9
15.9
Tamil
2.4
27.6
54.1
Sinhala

l solution if it is approved by a majority of Sri
National Trend
37.6
33.8
20 18.2
or Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
nic Breakdown
54.1
September '03 November '03
74.9
4
50 60 70 80
Don't know/ Not sure
66.7
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think people are being adequately informed a
National Trend
70
12.6
9
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
65.2
9.2
64.9
60
50
40 %
30
20
0
Ethnic Breakdown
4.1
10.6 10
Disagree
4.5
Up-country Tamil
16.3
59
20.3
6.2
Muslim
17.8
26.3
39.5
16.1
9.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
49.7
18.4
Tamil
12.6
29.5
Sinhala

dequately informed about federalism.
National Trend
65.2
64.9
13.2
15.4
nor Disagree Don't know/ Not sure
September '03 November '03
thnic Breakdown
59
49.7
70.2
40 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know/ Not sure
Disagree
39.5
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
M
USLIM
C
OMMUNITY
Do you think that the interests and concerns o are being adequately represented in the peace
National Trend
40
36.5
34.5
28.5
30
29.4
0
November '02
35.6
34.1 34.3 30
30.1
29.6
%
26.2
26.5 26.4 20
22.9
18.9
10
January '03 March '03 May '03 July '03 Sep
Ethnic Breakdown
46 Up-country Tamil
9
22.8
9.6 Muslim
74 14.9
34.8 Tamil
17
48.1
35.6 Sinhala
29.8 24
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8
%

erests and concerns of the Muslims of the East esented in the peace talks?
National Trend
4.3
34.5
32.7
34.5
30
30.1
32
26.4
24.8
'03 July '03 September
'03
30.8
6.5
27.4
Yes
No
Don't know/Not sure
c Breakdown
48.1
November '03
46
74.2
50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
No
Yes
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What in your opinion will be the impact of this
National Trend
60
50
46.2
48.1
47.9
40
34.6
%
30
19.6
0
January '03 March '03 May '03 July '03 Septe
Ethnic Breakdown
17
2 24.9
20
19.9
20.7
21
17.9
18.6
18.2
10
10.5
11.9
7.6
1
6.3
68.8
Up-country Tamil
7.4
10.7
12.4
13.8
Muslim
5.6
69.
10.5
49.3 27.2 6.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
41.5
Tamil
23.5
28.4
6.5
Sinhala

be the impact of this on the peace process?
National Trend
47.9 47.7
39.5
18.6
14.1
15.9
7.6
11.5
7.1
July '03 September '03 November '03
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
24.9
Will have a negative impact
Don't know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
49.3
26.7
29
68.8
69.6
50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
Will have a negative impact
1.5
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Do you think there should be a separate Muslim talks?
Ethnic Breakdown
41.9
National Trend
50
47
40
35.4
38.1
30
29.5
31.5
27.8
30
%
28.7
27.5
21.9
24.9
20
19.7
10
0
March '03 May '03 July '03 September '03
15.2 Up-country Tamil
13.9
1.9
30.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
%
58
Muslim
3.8
10.8
Tamil
40.3
43.7
Sinhala
15.9

d be a separate Muslim delegation to the peace
National Trend
47
45.7
19.7
16.5
ic Breakdown
94
Yes 0
9
24.9
27.3
No
Don't know/Not sure
'03 September '03 November '03
58
60 70 80 90 100
Don't know/Not sure
No
Yes
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
SLFP – JVP A
LLIANCE
Are you aware of the talks between the PA and
National Breakdown
22.9
77.1
Ethnic Breakdown
National
22.9
Up-country Tamil
42.1
60.8
29.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
57.9
Muslim
39.2
Tamil
Sinhala
20.1

s between the PA and JVP to form an alliance?
Breakdown
77.1
Yes
No
ic Breakdown
77.1
42.1
39.2
69.1
79.7
50 60 70 80 90 %
57.9
No 60.8
Yes
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of the talks between the PA an please tell me do you approve or disapprove of
National Breakdown
28
43.
28.6
Ethnic Breakdown
28 National
28.6
43.4
7.4 Up-country Tamil
86.4 6.1
14.9 Muslim
63.8 21.4
12.5
15
30.2 22.2
47.6
% Tamil
70.7
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10

lks between the PA and JVP to form an alliance, rove or disapprove of this alliance?
l Breakdown
43.4
Approve
Disapprove
Don't know/Not sure
Breakdown
63.8
86.4
70.7
0 70 80 90 100
Don't know/Not sure
Disapprove
Approve
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Copyright © Social Indicator November 2003
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What in your opinion will be the impact of this
National Breakdown
14.7
34.3
34.2
16.8
Ethnic Breakdown
14.7
National
16.8
34.2
34.3
10.2
Up-country Tamil
0
0.6
14.1
26.1 18.9
39.4
%
8
1.3
8.9
Muslim
5.3
66.4
18.1
5.4
Tamil
9.8
82.1
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

be the impact of this on the peace process?
onal Breakdown
34.3
16.8
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Don’t know/ Not sure
nic Breakdown
88.5
82.1
60 70 80 90 100
Don’t know/ Not sure
Will have a negative 66.4
impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
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LTTE’
S
ISGA P
ROPOSAL
Are you aware of the LTTE’s Interim Self Go proposal that was made public on the 1st of Nov
National Breakdown
3
60.4
Ethnic Breakdown
National
39.6
37.1
60.4
Up-country Tamil
38.4
61.6
Muslim
40.1
59.9
Tamil
21.6
62.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
7
Sinhala

TE’s Interim Self Governing Authority (ISGA) ublic on the 1st of November 2003?
Breakdown
39.6
Yes No
Breakdown
60.4
61.6
78.4
62.9
0 60 70 80 90
59.9
No
Yes
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If you are aware of the LTTE’s Interim Self Go proposal that was made public on the 1s of your opinion will be the impact of this on the p
National Breakdown
27.4
15.
52
5.5
Ethnic Breakdown
10.7
27.4 National
5.5
38.4
52
15.1
21.5 Up-country Tamil
3.7
14.3
27
58.7 2
%
58.3
10.4 Muslim
6.1
81.3
0.3
27.7 Tamil
6.5
27.4
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

TE’s Interim Self Governing Authority (ISGA) public on the 1st of November 2003, what in
pact of this on the peace process?
nal Breakdown
7.4
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
15.1
Will have a negative impact
5.5
Don’t know/ Not sure
Breakdown
52
58.3
58.7
60 70 80 90
Don’t know/ Not sure
81.3
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
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In your opinion the Sri Lankan Government proposal should be ...
National Breakdown
61
1
5.1 21.1
Ethnic Breakdown
0.3
12.8
National
21.1
31.1
61
5.1
1 Up-country Tamil
0
12.5
61.5 24.7
%
47.3
37
8.2
Muslim
26.4
59.3
0
5.3 Tamil
0
63
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Lankan Government’s response to the above
onal Breakdown
5.1
To accept it out right
To reject it out right
12.8
To negotiate with the LTTE and arrive at a compromise
Don’t know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
61
61.5
0 50 60 70
Don’t know/Not sure
47.3
To negotiate with the 59.3
LTTE and arrive at a compromise
To reject it out right 63.6
To accept it out right
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Are you aware of the Heroes’ Day speech mad Velupillai Prabhakaran on the 27th November 2
National Breakdown
66.8
Ethnic Breakdown
National
33.2
26.5
66.8
Up-country Tamil
34.2
6.1
73.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
65
Muslim
46.8
49.1
Tamil
Sinhala

roes’ Day speech made by the LTTE leader Mr.
the 27th November 2003?
al Breakdown
33.2
Yes No
c Breakdown
49.1
66.8
93.9
0 60 70 80 90 100
%
65
6.8
73.2
No Yes
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The LTTE leader, Mr. Velupillai Prabhakaran, the allegations levelled against their draft pro create an independent Tamil state or that the for separation, are not true. Please tell me a statement?
Ethnic Breakdown
9.1
National Breakdown
52.1
19
28
28.9 National
52.1 19
7.5 Up-country Tamil
1
91.4
12.6 Muslim
81.4 4.7
34.7 Tamil
34 31.4
30 Sinhala
58.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
%

lupillai Prabhakaran, stated in his speech that gainst their draft proposals, that they aim to amil state or that they contain stepping stones rue. Please tell me are you convinced by this
al Breakdown
19
c Breakdown
91.4
58.6
I am convinced by this
28.9
statement
I am not convinced by this statement
Don’t know/Not sure
Don’t know/Not sure
81.4
I am not convinced by this statement
I am convinced by this statement
70 80 90 100
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T
AKE OVER OF
M
INISTRIES
If you are aware that on the 4th of November 2 Kumaratunga took over the Defence, Inter Communication Ministries, please tell me do y of her decision to take over the Defence Minist
National Breakdown
51.8
23.2
Ethnic Breakdown
23.2 National
25
6.6
25.5
56.8
%
51.8
7 Up-country Tamil
0.9
13.3 Muslim
29.9
56.8
8.7 Tamil
17.7
84.
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

the 4th of November 2003, President Chandrika the Defence, Interior and Media and Mass s, please tell me do you approve or disapprove er the Defence Ministry?
onal Breakdown
25
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
1.8
92.1
84.8
56.8
60 70 80 90 100
Don’t know/Not sure
56.8
Disapprove
Approve
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If you are aware that on the 4th of November 2 Kumaratunga took over the Defence, Inter Communication Ministries, please tell me do y of her decision to take over the Interior Ministr
National Breakdown
25.6
26.3
Ethnic Breakdown
25.6 National
26.3
48.1
7 Up-country Tamil
3.7
14.4 Muslim
31.3
7.8
27.9 19.3
52.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
54.3
7.3 Tamil
Sinhala

the 4th of November 2003, President Chandrika the Defence, Interior and Media and Mass s, please tell me do you approve or disapprove er the Interior Ministry?
ional Breakdown
48.1
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
48.1
89.3
83.5
52.4
50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Don’t know/Not sure
54.3
Disapprove
Approve
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If you are aware that on the 4th of November 2 Kumaratunga took over the Defence, Inter Communication Ministries, please tell me do y of her decision to take over the Media an Ministry?
National Breakdown
25.8
27
Ethnic Breakdown
25.8 National
27
47.2
7.9 Up-country Tamil
3.1
14.2 Muslim
32.4
27.5 20.1
51.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
52.5
7.3 Tamil
7.4
Sinhala

the 4th of November 2003, President Chandrika the Defence, Interior and Media and Mass s, please tell me do you approve or disapprove over the Media and Mass Communication
ional Breakdown
47.2
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
7.2
89
83.9
51.5
0 60 70 80 90 100
Don’t know/Not sure
52.5
Disapprove
Approve
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If you are aware that on the 4th of November Kumaratunga prorogued parliament, please te disapprove of her decision to prorogue parliam
National Breakdown
43.4
32.8
Ethnic Breakdown
23.8
32.8 National
43.4 23.8
4.8 Up-country Tamil
2.9
10.3 Muslim
33
37.5
38.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
56.7
11.4 Tamil
8 4.4
Sinhala

the 4th of November 2003 President Chandrika parliament, please tell me do you approve or
to prorogue parliament?
nal Breakdown
32.8
Approve Disapprove Don’t know/Not sure
23.8
nic Breakdown
56.7
84.2
92.3
60 70 80 90 100
Don’t know/Not sure Disapprove Approve
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What in your opinion will be the impact of h the ministries and prorogue parliament, on the
National Breakdown
40.5
26.8
Ethnic Breakdown
7.7
26.8
National
24.1
40.5
8.6
1.5
Up-country Tamil
0
1.5
5
Muslim
26.6
38.2
30.1
8.2
Tamil
6.2
80.1
3.9
30.4
Sinhala
26.4
35.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
%

ll be the impact of her decisions, to take over ue parliament, on the peace process?
ational Breakdown
.8 Will have a positive
impact
8.6
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
24.1
Don't know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
80.1
95.6
60 70 80 90 100 110
Don't know/Not sure
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
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The Prime Minister said that he cannot take re process unless the ministries are returned, an then the President takes responsibility for the me do you approve or disapprove of this statem
National Breakdown
35.8
Ethnic Breakdown
24.9
34.4
34.4 National
35.8 29.8
19.6 Up-country Tamil
16.2
35.3
38.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
6
24.2 Muslim
31.5
35.4
13.8 Tamil
13.8
Sinhala

hat he cannot take responsibility for the peace ries are returned, and if they are not returned responsibility for the peace process. Please tell approve of this statement?
ional Breakdown
29.8
nic Breakdown
72.4
Approve Disapprove Don’t know/Not sure
4
.8
63.5
.3 38.6
0 50 60 70 80
Don’t know/Not sure
.4
Disapprove
Approve
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W
HO SHOULD HANDLE THE
P
EACE
P
ROCESS
In the present context, in your opinion whom d to lead the peace process, the President or the
Ethnic Breakdown
18.9
National Breakdown
60
50 50
40
30 %
20
17.7
19.2
10
0
The President The Prime Minister Both the President the Prime Minist
9.7 3.4 National
17.7
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
50
3.6
19.2
5.7 3.6 Up-country Tamil
6.2
0.7
4.3 0.9 Muslim
62 16.5 15.7
6.5 3.9 Tamil
26.6
52.9 14.1
49.7 13.3
Sinhala

P
EACE
P
ROCESS
your opinion whom do you think is best suited , the President or the Prime Minister?
National Breakdown
50
3.4
Ethnic Breakdown
49.7
9.7
er Both the President and
the Prime Minister
Neither of them Don’t know/Not sure
50
0 50 60 70 80 90
%
Don’t know/Not sure 83.9
Neither of them
Both the President and the Prime Minister
The Prime Minister
The President
52.9
62.6
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N
ORWEGIAN
P
OSITION
If you are aware that the Norwegians tempor as facilitators of the Sri Lankan peace proce approve or disapprove of their decision?
National Breakdown
48.1
20.4
Ethnic Breakdown
20.4 National
48.1 31.5
2.5 Up-country Tamil
23.7
46.1 29.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 6
%
36
12.1 Muslim
31.8
52.7
7 Tamil
29.7
Sinhala

Norwegians temporarily suspended their role Lankan peace process, please tell me do you their decision?
ational Breakdown
31.5
Approve Disapprove Don’t know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
48.1 5
61.5 36
Don’t know/Not sure
.8
Disapprove 52.7
Approve 63.3
46.1
40 50 60 70
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In your opinion, what will be the impact of this
National Breakdown
56.7
15.5
Ethnic Breakdown
8.9
19.2
National
15.5
56.7
8.6
0
Up-country Tamil
0
1.3
3.6
Muslim
19.8
49.9
21.9
4.3
Tamil
32.4
56.9
4.1
20.5
Sinhala
13.9
54.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%

be the impact of this on the peace process?
National Breakdown
8.6
15.5
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Don’t know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
54.1
19.2
56.7
0 60 70 80 90 100 110
%
98.7
Don’t know/Not sure
49.9
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
56.9
Will have a positive impact
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B
UDGET
If you are aware that the UNF Government p the 19th of November 2003, please tell me satisfied with the new budget?
National Breakdown
61.5
19
19.4
Ethnic Breakdown
19.1 National
61 19.4
6.2 Up-country Tamil
21.9
13.6 Muslim
59.1 27.2
22.5 Tamil
37.8
39.7
19.4 Sinhala
6 17.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

UNF Government presented its 3rd budget on 003, please tell me to what extent are you get?
onal Breakdown
19.1
Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
61.5
39.7
62.9
40 50 60 70 80
%
72
59.1
Don’t know/Not sure
Dissatisfied
37.8
Satisfied
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In your opinion, what will be the impact of th peace process?
National Breakdown
19.1
40.1
4.7
Ethnic Breakdown
4.3
36.1
National
19.1
11.1
37.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
40.1 4.7
4.4
Up-country Tamil
29.7
18.1
38.7
53 4.8
11.5
Muslim
27.1
38.7
10.2
14.5
Tamil
5.1
Sinhala

ll be the impact of this budget on the current
ational Breakdown
4.7
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Don’t know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
38.7
36.1
36.1
40 50 60 70
%
40.1
.7
38.7
37.5
53.2
Don’t know/Not sure
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
66.3
Will have a positive impact
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C
HIEF
J
USTICE
Are you aware of the UNF Government’s deci Justice Sarath N. Silva?
National Breakdown
67.5
Ethnic Breakdown
National
32.5
Up-country Tamil
15.1
57.5
32.1
%
57.5 Muslim
41.7
Tamil
42.5
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

F Government’s decision to impeach the Chief
nal Breakdown
32.5
Yes No
thnic Breakdown
42.5
67.5
40 50 60 70 80 90
%
84.9
57.5
No
41.7
Yes
57.5
67.7
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If you are aware of the UNF Government’s Chief Justice Sarath N. Silva, please tell disapprove of this decision?
National Breakdown
56.9
18.9
Ethnic Breakdown
15
24.2 National
18.9
4.5 Up-country Tamil
46.5
32
22.8
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
49
13.5 Muslim
35.8
50.7
45 Tamil
23
Sinhala

UNF Government’s decision to impeach the . Silva, please tell me do you approve or
?
ional Breakdown
18.9
24.2 Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
50.7
56.9
45
40 50 60 70
%
46.5
49
Don’t know/Not sure
35.8
Disapprove
Approve 32
61.2
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E
UROPEAN
U
NION
(EU)
Are you aware that the European Union Commissioner, Mr. Chris Patten, met with Velupillai Prabhakaran, on the 26th of Novembe
National Breakdown
66.5
Ethnic Breakdown
National
33.5
Up-country Tamil
24.7
Muslim
40.1
59.9
Tamil
20
Sinhala
30.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

e European Union (EU) External Relations is Patten, met with the LTTE leader, Mr.
the 26th of November 2003?
al Breakdown
33.5
Yes No
nic Breakdown
66.5
77.2
0 50 60 70 80 90
%
75.3
59.9
No 40.1
Yes
69.2
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If you are aware that the European Union Commissioner, Mr. Chris Patten, met with Velupillai Prabhakaran, on the 26th of Novemb you approve or disapprove of this?
National Breakdown
3 33.3
28.9
Ethnic Breakdown
28.9 National
33.3
37.8
14.8 Up-country Tamil
8.1
35.5
38.7 25.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
77.
4.9 Muslim
44.8
50.3
2.5 Tamil
1.8
Sinhala

he European Union (EU) External Relations is Patten, met with the LTTE leader, Mr. n the 26th of November 2003, please tell me do e of this?
nal Breakdown
37.8
Approve Disapprove Don’t know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
77.1
.8
92.1
0 60 70 80 90 100
Don’t know/Not sure
Disapprove 50.3
Approve
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In your opinion, what will be the impact of C Lanka, on the peace process?
National Breakdown
29.3
33
22.5
14.4 Ethnic Breakdown
29.3
National
14.4
22.5
33.8
5.3
Up-country Tamil
9.1
12.7
3.9
Muslim
12.7
45.6
35.1 24.7 9.3
30.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 6
%
36.8
6.8
Tamil
0
46.5 43.2
Sinhala

ill be the impact of Chris Patten’s visit to Sri ess?
ional Breakdown
33.8
14.4
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Don’t know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
3.8
46.5 43.2
64.7
Don’t know/Not sure 45.6
36.8
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
35.1
Will have a positive impact
40 50 60 70
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In your opinion what would result from the c current President and the Prime Minister?
National Breakdown
50
6.1
It will result in political unrest
41.9
40
30 %
20
15.2
10
5.7
0
Ethnic Breakdown
4.1
It will be advantageous for good governance
It is of paramount importance for the country’s security
It will contr to the lag i developme the coun
27.4
National
2.8
5.7
15.2
6.1
41
0.7
9.4
12.7
Up-country Tamil
13.8
39.1 21
3
5.5
16
27.1
%
24.3
36.2
2.7
9.1
39.7
Muslim
7.3
17.7
20.4
1.2
31.4
Tamil
1.3
1.4
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40

uld result from the cohabitation between the
Prime Minister?
National Breakdown
5.2
5.7
2.8
27.4
paramount tance for ountry’s curity
It will contribute to the lag in the development of the country
It doesn’t have any effect on the country
Don’t know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
27.4
41.9
Don’t know/Not sure
It doesn’t have any effect on
.3
36.2
the country
39.7
It will contribute to the lag in the development of the country
It is of paramount importance
31.4
for the country’s security
It will be advantageous for 39.1
good governance
27.1
It will result in political unrest
43.9
30 40 50
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Do you think that constructive cohabitation b the Prime Minister is possible?
National Breakdown
51.9
4
Ethnic Breakdown
National
51.9
48.1
Up-country Tamil
19.2
46.8
53.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
67.1 Muslim
32.9
Tamil
11.9
Sinhala

uctive cohabitation between the President and
ible?
al Breakdown
48.1
thnic Breakdown
53.2
Yes No
51.9
48.1
46.8
50 60 70 80 90 100
%
80.9
67.1
No
Yes
88.1
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Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in Novembe
DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 185 Gampaha 161 Kalutara 79 Kandy 91 Matale 31 Nuwar Eliya 47 Galle 72 Hambantota 36 Matara 53 Anuradhapura 53 Polonnaruwa 26 Kurunegala 105 Puttlam 48 Badulla 50 Monaragala 25 Ratnapura 73 Kegalle 58 Amparai 39 Batticoloa 35 Vavuniya 11 NATIONAL 1279
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in November
ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1080 Tamil 71 Muslim 74 Up-country Tamil 54 NATIONAL 1279

Annex
istribution in November 2003
TOTAL 185 161 79 91 31 47 72 36 53 53 26 105 48 50 25 73 58 39 35 11 1279
tribution in November 2003
TOTAL 1080 71 74 54 1279
r 2003
i

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Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study i confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is e repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conductin a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase o
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the stud the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fie an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a n factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole f this model.
The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative distr Amparai, Batticoloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar distric result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficultie stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district on particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statis
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maxim DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order households.
In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ g the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PCI
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error m noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not sup same level of precision.

ence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public rocess over time it is essential that the study be conducted e study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of ame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of g each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture e span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that ocess is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic d influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in
g 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the uniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a n and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each population proportions. However, some districts are over ty but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the
nicity within a district only if the population proportion of that sional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit nique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri
ent of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
rk and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a uct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews ule) technique in order to assure the random selection of
er is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, lace at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, sehold using the ‘KISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member of eing selected to the PCI sample.
ubject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the
r 2003
ii

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Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social resea conducts polls on socio-economic and political iss
Operating under the Board of Directors of Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in Septem longstanding vacuum for a permanent, profess polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and political is
Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a me majority of the public can express their opinions o Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social is a means through which public opinion can influ debate.
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alterna 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Fax: +9411 2370475

independent social research organisation, which conomic and political issues.
oard of Directors of the Centre for Policy as established in September 1999, and filled a r a permanent, professional and independent a on social and political issues.
of empowerment, a means by which the silent express their opinions on issues affecting them. t surveys on key social issues, thereby providing public opinion can influence the public policy
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org