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An Opinion Poll On Peace
Peace Confidence Index (P
TOP-LINE RESULTS
© 2004 Social Indicator ● Centre for Po
Feb

pinion Poll On Peace
ace Confidence Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
Social Indicator
February 2004
ndicator ● Centre for Policy Alternatives

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W
hile many studies have been conducted this conflict, none have attempted to public perception over a period of time. The la identified as a significant void by Social Indicator unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA). Index study (PCI) seeks to fill this lacuna. The stu monthly to gauge the impact of local and developments on public attitudes towards the pea
This report was prepared with funds provided by:
The U.S. Agency for International Development under the O Transition Initiatives (OTI), Sri Lanka.

W
es have been conducted on various aspects of ne have attempted to capture the changes in period of time. The lack of such a study was void by Social Indicator (SI), the social research olicy Alternatives (CPA). The Peace Confidence o fill this lacuna. The study will be conducted bi- impact of local and international political ttitudes towards the peace process.
rovided by:
evelopment under the Office of

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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
E
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
(PCI) T
OP
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX -L
INE
R
ESULTS
CONFIDENCE IN PEACE
SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT
CONFIDENCE
THE PEACE PROCESS
I
NTERNATIONAL
F
ACILITATION
N
ORWEGIAN
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
I
NDIA
’
S
I
NVOLVEMENT
• R
ECENT
P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION
F
EDERAL
S
OLUTION
SLFP – JVP A
LLIANCE
U
NETHICAL
C
ONVERSIONS
A
TTACKS ON
C
HURCHES
DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT
• A
NNEX

ex
01 I
TERNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
02 E
06 I
DEX
(PCI) 12
12
NFLICT 15
18
22
P
ARTY
F
ACILITATION
23
ION
24
26
D
VELOPMENTS
27
MISSION 27
30
35
NS
37
S
44
MENT 48
2004

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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a n
public confidence in the peace process using a set of stand
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of q
economic and political developments in order to gauge pub
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide
useful barometer of the opinions of the Sri Lankan polity
opinions of the public are given due importance and incorpora
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire a
interviews amongst a 2,125 respondent sample. The 17 adm
provinces, excluding the Northern and the Eastern province
control of the Amparai, Batticoloa, Trincomalee and Vavuniya
to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the dis
surveyed.
Sixteen waves of the PCI study were conducted in
November 2001 and January, March, May, July, Sept
January, March, May, July, September and Novembe
conducted in February 2004. This publication presents
February 2004 survey.
The results of these seventeen waves offer us data for a com
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war
the LTTE. The results are subject to a 3% margin of error.

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INTRODUCTION
. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
ess using a set of standardised questions which remain
her is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process,
ne wave to another.
riod of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
f the Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective
portance and incorporated into the policy debate.
uctured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
ent sample. The 17 administrative districts of the seven
nd the Eastern provinces, and areas under Government
rincomalee and Vavuniya were surveyed. Data is weighted
composition of the districts in which the sample was
y were conducted in May, June, September and
arch, May, July, September, November 2002 and
mber and November 2003. The latest wave was
his publication presents only the top-line results of the
offer us data for a comparative study on changing public
from perceptions of war and peace to the proscription of
3% margin of error.

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMEN 2004
• One person died and another injured when a hand gren police area on Sunday night. President Chandrika Kumarat IGP to take immediate steps to normalise the situation in (Daily Mirror on 02 December 2003)
• The third round of talks between President Chandri Wickremesinghe went positively with a certain degree of co (04 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 05 December 2003)
• One of Sri Lanka's best known, most outspoken and con Soma Thera, better known as Soma Hamuduruwo, died sud He was 54. (12 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 13 Decembe
• In an unprecedented move an inquest on the death of t conducted at the Ragama hospital yesterday by three JMOs unconfirmed reports said they would be reporting to the failure. (18 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 19 December 20
• Talks aimed at resolving a power struggle between Preside Ranil Wickremesinghe have failed, raising fresh concerns f sources said today. (21 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 22 D
• Amidst growing concern over religious tension, President and the armed forces on full alert and ordered them to cr among religious groups. The President who met DIGs of t the country battered by decades of racial conflicts could no as preparations were finalised for the cremation of the V Square tomorrow amidst continuing allegations and rumo (Daily Mirror on 23 December 2003)
• A mob that ran berserk just after the funeral pyre of Ven sheer pandemonium reigned when police anti-riot squads crowds who were demanding the release of two suspects Reports said the two men were attacked by the mob for al Independence Square. (24 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 2
• More than one hundred Buddhist monks of the Jathika Sang opposite the Buddha Sasana Ministry, urging the governm bring in laws to curb unethical conversions. (29 December 2
• Police said today they had stepped up security at churches continuing inter-religious tension. DIG K. P. Pathirana vulnerable areas following Sunday's attack on a Jehovah's W (29 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 30 December 2003)
• Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe today called on Presi task of handling the peace process by introducing suitable February 2001 and renegotiate the Accord with the LTTE 2004)
• Tamil political parties today raised concern over the Prime M take over the entire Peace Process and the ceasefire agree Mirror on 08 January 2004)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga admitted today for the second time, one year after she took oaths in 1999. "It is continue in the office of President till 2006 or not. But I ma culture," President Kumaratunga said in an interview with IT January 2004-http://www.dailymirror.lk/2004/01/14/front/3.asp)
• Despite the peace process being at a standstill due to the the North - East will continue, government Peace Secretar Mirror on 15 January 2004)
• The LTTE has given a solemn pledge to the Norwegian agreement and maintain peace, irrespective of the continu given by the LTTE's chief negotiator, Anton Balasingham, w delegation led by Oslo's Special Envoy Erik Solheim. (15 Janu
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004

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NAL DEVELOPMENTS DECEMBER 2003 – FEBRUARY
ured when a hand grenade was thrown at Kandalkaduthu in Kinniya ent Chandrika Kumaratunga has directed Defence authorities and the rmalise the situation in the Trincomalee district. (01 December 2003)-
een President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil ith a certain degree of consensus being reached, informed sources said.
05 December 2003) ost outspoken and controversial monk, the Venerable Gangodawila a Hamuduruwo, died suddenly in Russia yesterday after a heart failure. aily Mirror on 13 December 2003) quest on the death of the Venerable Gangodawila Soma Thera was esterday by three JMOs with the assistance of two heart specialists and uld be reporting to the Magistrate today that death was due to heart
irror on 19 December 2003) truggle between President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister raising fresh concerns for a fragile peace bid with the LTTE, political 003)-(Daily Mirror on 22 December 2003) gious tension, President Chandrika Kumaratunga today put the Police and ordered them to crack down on anyone trying to create trouble dent who met DIGs of the Western and Southern Provinces said that f racial conflicts could not and must not allow religious trouble to erupt the cremation of the Ven. Gangodavila Soma Thera at Independence ing allegations and rumours, the President said. (22 December 2003)-
the funeral pyre of Ven. Gangodawila Soma Thera was set alight and police anti-riot squads responded by firing tear gas to break up the release of two suspects whom the police had rescued from the mob. tacked by the mob for allegedly distributing scurrilous pamphlets at the
r 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 25 December 2003)
onks of the Jathika Sangha Sammelanaya today staged a fast unto death try, urging the government and President Chandrika Kumaratunga to
ersions. (29 December 2003)-(Daily Mirror on 30 December 2003)
up security at churches after two Christian sites were attacked amid DIG K. P. Pathirana said mobile patrols had been intensified in attack on a Jehovah's Witnesses hall and another church in Colombo. 30 December 2003) he today called on President Chandrika Kumaratunga to take over the s by introducing suitable amendments to the Ceasefire Agreement of Accord with the LTTE. (07 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 08 January
concern over the Prime Minister's statement calling on the President to s and the ceasefire agreement with the LTTE. (07 January 2004)-(Daily
admitted today for the first time that she had been sworn-in for the ok oaths in 1999. "It is up to me to take a decision whether I am to till 2006 or not. But I may not want to stay that long in this bad political id in an interview with ITN today. (13 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 14 k/2004/01/14/front/3.asp) t a standstill due to the political stalemate, humanitarian assistance to ernment Peace Secretariat sources said today. (14 January 2004)-(Daily
dge to the Norwegian facilitators that it will abide by the cease-fire espective of the continuing turmoil in Colombo. The assurance was r, Anton Balasingham, when he met on Wednesday with a Norwegian oy Erik Solheim. (15 January 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com)
2004

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The Roman Catholic Church of St. Michael's in Katuwana today for the second time in three weeks. Police blamed re reported throughout the country in the recent past. (15 Jan
• Retired Major General Trond Furuhovde will be appointed Monitoring Mission (SLMM) replacing Tryggve Tellefsen, wh national security by President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kum January 2004)
• The main Opposition SLFP today came down hard on th section of the business sector whom they termed as a become spokesmen for the UNF government. SLFP Sp conference that the Joint Business Forum at a recently held made by the UNF government.- -Jan 16-Daily Mirror Jan 17
• The SLFP and the JVP today reached a landmark agr Memorandum of Understanding aimed at forming a broad n UNF government and the signing of the Memorandum of U January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 21 January 2004 & www.tamiln
• Two men who were putting up flags and festoons to celebr JVP were killed in a grenade attack on them in Senaikkudiy said. (19 January 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com)
• Japanese special peace envoy Yasushi Akashi arriving in C media that he will not interfere with the internal politics "certain thoughts" with the "relevant parties" in a bid to e follow-up meeting to the Tokyo Donor Conference on Rec Friday (23). (20 January 2004)-(Daily News on 21 January 20
• A visiting three-member International Monetary Fund (IMF progress of the Lanka Government's Fiscal Reform Program grave concern over the current political impasse. These meetings with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe at T with Finance Minister K.N. Choksy at the Treasury on Mon
• In what seems to be a major departure from the earlier sta Advisor Lakshman Kadirgamar today reiterated that the n with the LTTE without pre-conditions and even vowed to t a "basis" for talks. (21 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 22 Janua
• Rekindling hopes for renewed cohabitation, President Cha Wickremesinghe, during yesterday's cabinet meeting, reach changes in the electoral system and agreed to hold provin Mirror on 22 January 2004)
• Slamming the SLFP-JVP Memorandum of Understanding as a resumption of war, the LTTE today said the deal failed to negotiated settlement of the Tamil national question. (21 Ja
• The LTTE said today that it declined to accept Japanese participate in a donor meeting in Colombo on Jan 23, 200 unified leadership of government in Colombo now. (22 Janu
• The National Bhikku Front today handed over a petition immediate action to ban anti-Buddhist Non-governmental conflicts among religions and thereby helping the LTTE. (22
• International donors want aid to keep flowing into Sri La crisis would make that difficult by hindering efforts to reviv donors comes amidst a power struggle between Presiden Ranil Wickremesinghe. "It was a good meeting, very const closed-door meeting. The meeting of about a dozen don Fund and other international bodies was chaired by Japan follow-up to a donor conference in Tokyo last summer. 2004)
• In spite of appeals by religious and national leaders, attacks Catholic prayer centre at Mattegoda has been attacked. Are people had entered the prayer centre at the Mattegoda H fire after causing damage to statues and other items. (26 Jan
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t. Michael's in Katuwana, Homagama came under a mob attack early weeks. Police blamed religious extremists for the attack, one of several n the recent past. (15 January 2004)-(Daily News on 16 January 2004) uhovde will be appointed as the new Head of Mission of the Sri Lanka ing Tryggve Tellefsen, who is in Oslo after being accused of endangering ndrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. (16 January 2004)-(Daily News on 17
came down hard on the business community, saying that a minority hom they termed as a group of "self-proclaimed high priests" have government. SLFP Spokesman Mangala Samaraweera told a news Forum at a recently held seminar had repeated the demands (originally) n 16-Daily Mirror Jan 17 eached a landmark agreement placing their joint signatures to a med at forming a broad national alliance and vowed it would defeat the f the Memorandum of Understanding was the first step towards it. (20 nuary 2004 & www.tamilnet.com on 21 January 2004) gs and festoons to celebrate the signing of the MoU between SLFP and on them in Senaikkudiyiruppu in the Puttalam district Monday, Police et.com) ushi Akashi arriving in Colombo today on a week long visit told the ith the internal politics of the country and added that he will share ant parties" in a bid to end the political impasse. Akashi will chair the onor Conference on Reconstruction and Development in Sri Lanka on ly News on 21 January 2004)
nal Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation has expressed satisfaction at the t's Fiscal Reform Program in strengthening the economy, but expressed political impasse. These concerns have been expressed at individual il Wickremesinghe at Temple Trees Friday 16 January and the other at the Treasury on Monday Jan-19. (21 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror) rture from the earlier stand of the main Opposition, Senior President's ay reiterated that the new SLFP-JVP alliance is ready to resume talks ons and even vowed to take the latest set of proposals by the LTTE as )-(Daily Mirror on 22 January 2004) abitation, President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil 's cabinet meeting, reached consensus on a number of issues including d agreed to hold provincial polls on April 28. (21 January 2004)-(Daily
um of Understanding as a pact that creates objective conditions for the ay said the deal failed to produce any concrete, realistic formula for a
national question. (21 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 22 January 2004) ined to accept Japanese special envoy Yashushi Akashi’s invitation to Colombo on Jan 23, 2004 because there was no political stability and
Colombo now. (22 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 23 January 2004) handed over a petition to President Chandrika Kumaratunga urging dhist Non-governmental Organizations that they allege were creating by helping the LTTE. (22 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 23 January 2004) keep flowing into Sri Lanka, but voiced concern today that a political indering efforts to revive the stalled peace process. The meeting of aid uggle between President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister ood meeting, very constructive," said one diplomat who attended the g of about a dozen donor countries plus the International Monetary ies was chaired by Japanese special envoy Yasushi Akashi and was a in Tokyo last summer. (23 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 24 January
national leaders, attacks on Christian places of worship continue, as a a has been attacked. Area police chief N. Navaratne said that about 25 tre at the Mattegoda Housing Scheme on Jan 26 and set the place on and other items. (26 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 28 January 2004)
2004

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The Bar Association President Ananda Wijesekera announc major controversy said today that every lawyer had a representations in the best interests of his client and this right after working hours. Mr. Wijesekera drew flak from a section society organizations for his involvement in producing Sri Lank before the Additional Fort Magistrate on a Poya day to ob against him. (29 January 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 30 January 2004
• The eight-day long fast to death campaign carried out by the H to an end today amidst celebration and fanfare opposite the steps to issue the circular containing the new salary scales Mirror on 03 February 2004)
• The 11-day-old railway strike which crippled the public tr thousands of commuters was last night called off after a M between the government and trade unions. (07 February 2004
• Parliament is dissolved from midnight, clearing the way for Election 2 April," Mano Tittawella, director-general of the February 2004)-(www.lankapage.com)
• The dissolution of the Sri Lankan parliament and the call for to the peace process. The decision to seek another mandate fact that the Sinhala political leadership lacks the political will issue - the Tamil national question,” said Mr Anton Balas theoretician commenting on the current political develop (www.tamilnet.com)
• While attacking President Chandrika Kumaratunga's dissolutio and undemocratic, the government charged today that the Pr of the Independent Elections Commission, which would hav 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 10 February 2004)
• The CWC - a key player in forming governments - said today elections by entering into an alliance with any party that acce February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 10 February 2004)
• Rejecting any alliances, The Sihala Urumaya said today, it wou the aim of brining what it describes as a genuine Sinhala Voi Mirror on 11 February 2004)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga has removed 39 non-Cabin Parliamentary elections on April 2, a spokesman for her office February 2004)
• The Up-country People's Front today decided to contest the f ticket in the districts of Kandy, Kegalle, Puttalam, Colombo an 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 12 February 2004)
• An SLFP group yesterday urged President Chandrika Kumarat against 17 UNF ministers and top officials over corruption cha February 2004)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga Addressing the Mahara elec the people to either give her party or the UNF a "clear and m as she found it impossible to cohabitate with the Prime Minist (Daily Mirror on 16 February 2004)
• The Jathika Sangha Sammelenaya today announced it would su Alliance (UPFA) at the forthcoming elections, if President Cha a written assurance accepting the conditions of the monks as l Sammuthiya'. (16 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 17 February 20
• In what is widely seen as a turning point in the general election now known as the Jathika Hela Urumaya, announced today it h Buddhist monks including several leading Buddhist prelates, to 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 18 February 2004)
• The LTTE today called on the Tamil people to vote for the Ta general election on April 2. (17 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on
• Sri Lanka’s Commissioner of Elections said today he won’t allo LTTE where more than two hundred thousand Tamil voters li
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga today assured that a future not push the LTTE back to war as the groundwork has already (18 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 19 February 2004)
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nda Wijesekera announcing his decision to stand down amidst a every lawyer had a right to represent his client and make of his client and this right was not diminished on a public holiday or drew flak from a section of his own legal fraternity and several civil ent in producing Sri Lanka Telecom Chairman Thilanga Sumathipala te on a Poya day to obtain his discharge from the case pending
irror on 30 January 2004) aign carried out by the Health Services Trade Union Alliance came nd fanfare opposite the Health Ministry after Health Ministry took g the new salary scales and procedures. (02 February 2004)-(Daily
h crippled the public transport sector causing agony to tens of ight called off after a Memorandum of Understanding was signed nions. (07 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror)
t, clearing the way for an election on April 2, 2004. "Dissolved. director-general of the president's office, said in a message. (07
liament and the call for a snap election constitutes a grave setback o seek another mandate from the people clearly demonstrates the ip lacks the political will and vision to resolve the country’s burning ,” said Mr Anton Balasingham, the LTTE’s political advisor and urrent political developments in Colombo. (09 February 2004)-
Kumaratunga's dissolution of parliament as selfish, narrow-minded harged today that the President had also delayed the appointment ission, which would have ensured free and fair polls. (09 February 4) governments - said today it would contest the forthcoming general with any party that accepted three demands put forward by it. (09 ruary 2004) umaya said today, it would go solo at the snap general election with as a genuine Sinhala Voice to Parliament. (10 February 2004)-(Daily
s removed 39 non-Cabinet and deputy ministers ahead of spokesman for her office said. (11 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 12
decided to contest the forthcoming general election on the UNF le, Puttalam, Colombo and Badulla, a spokesman said. (11 February
4) dent Chandrika Kumaratunga to ensure that due action was taken cials over corruption charges. (12 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 13
dressing the Mahara electorate SLFP convention, today called upon the UNF a "clear and massive" mandate in the upcoming elections te with the Prime Minister. The President said. (15 February 2004)-
y announced it would support the United People's Freedom lections, if President Chandrika Kumaratunga and the Alliance gave
ditions of the monks as laid down in their 'Viharamaha Devi y Mirror on 17 February 2004) int in the general election campaign, the Sihala Urumaya, which is aya, announced today it had decided to field more than 260 ing Buddhist prelates, to contest on its conch symbol. (17 February 4) eople to vote for the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) at the snap ary 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 18 February 2004) s said today he won’t allow polling booths in areas held by the
thousand Tamil voters live. (18 February 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com) day assured that a future government under her leadership would groundwork has already been laid to start talks with the LTTE. February 2004) 2004

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• With the internationally-monitored ceasefire agreement bet LTTE having completed two years, the LTTE have said that existing truce agreement even after April 2 general elections.
• Sri Lanka today marks the second anniversary of a truce with (AFP/www.theacademic.org)
• The Jaffna District Humanitarian Agencies Consortium (JDHA the head of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) in Jaffna the lives of several thousand Tamil people including internally years of ceasefire, civil society sources said. (22 February 2004
• President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga will lead the m Alliance (UPFA) at the April 2 parliamentary elections with a f Electoral Reforms, abolition of Executive Presidency and Mark call. (22 February 2004)-(The Sunday Observer)
• The Mahanayaka Theras of the Malwatta and the Asgiriya Chap rightly disapproved a decision taken by a group of Buddhist mo Urumaya party to contest the forthcoming general election. (2
• "We openly state that the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) is co on behalf of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)," said Trincomalee district, R. Sampanthan. (23 February 2004)-(www
• Sri Lanka's Jaffna library, a cultural icon for the country's mino students today, more than two decades after it was gutted in a 2004)-(Reuters)
• A group of Buddhist monks has started a protest fast today in Urumaya’s Leader, Tilak Karunaratne at Thimbirigasaya, agains forthcoming general election. (24 February 2004)-(www.lankapa
• In a stringent move to curtail politicians from abusing state re Secretary Charitha Ratwatte today issued a circular to all Commander of the Sri Lanka Air Force that no services o propaganda activities from the date of nominations. (25 Februa
• Finance Minister, K. N. Choksy today said the Commissi authority to compel the Sri Lanka Rupavahini Corporation an to observe the guidelines issued by him in respect of political on 27 February 2004)
• A Muslim group in Jaffna called the Jaffna Muslims Peace Con LTTE and the peace process. "We accept the LTTE leader Ve not in a position to accept SLMC leader Rauf Hakeem," said Muslims peace consortium. (27 February 2004)-(www.tamilnet.co
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ceasefire agreement between the Sri Lankan government and the he LTTE have said that they are not prepared to renegotiate the pril 2 general elections. (22 February 2004)-(www.dawn.com) iversary of a truce with LTTE. (23 February 2004)-
cies Consortium (JDHAC) today handed over a memorandum to Mission (SLMM) in Jaffna stating that normalcy has not returned to ople including internally displaced in the peninsula even after two s said. (22 February 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com) maratunga will lead the main opposition’s United People’s Freedom entary elections with a four-point popular mandate (Peace, tive Presidency and Market oriented economy) being her victory bserver) tta and the Asgiriya Chapters of the Siyam Maha Nikaya have out y a group of Buddhist monks representing the Jathika Hela ming general election. (22 February 2004)-(www.theacademic.org) onal Alliance (TNA) is contesting the forthcoming general election amil Eelam (LTTE)," said Tamil National Alliance lead candidate in (23 February 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com) n for the country's minority Tamil community, quietly reopened to es after it was gutted in an act of ethnic violence. (23 February
d a protest fast today in front of the residence of Jathika Hela at Thimbirigasaya, against the Buddhist monks contesting the ruary 2004)-(www.lankapage.com)
ns from abusing state resources for election campaigning, Treasury issued a circular to all heads of state media institutions and the orce that no services on credit should be extended for political f nominations. (25 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror on 27 February 2004) day said the Commissioner of elections had the constitutional pavahini Corporation and the Sri Lanka Broadcasting Corporation im in respect of political broadcasts. (25 February 2004)-(Daily Mirror
ffna Muslims Peace Consortium has expressed full support for the cept the LTTE leader Velupillai Prabahakaran as our leader. We are der Rauf Hakeem," said Al Aleem Marleen, president of the Jaffna ary 2004)-(www.tamilnet.com & Daily Mirror on 28 February 2004)
2004

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CO
F
EBRUARY
2004
TO
29TH F
EBR
♦ 22.6% state that since the ceasefire, their quality of li state that it has got worse. A majority (45.8%) state tha of life is about the same and this opinion stems mainly f (49%). A marginal 5.4% don’t know or are unsure abou the ethnic perspective, a majority of the Tamil (67.3%) communities state that since the ceasefire their quality community, however, has a divided opinion in this rega about the same – 38.6%). It is important to note that 28 state that their quality of life has got worse. (Ref. Page 1
♦ 30.1% believe that since the ceasefire, the quality of li improved. This opinion stems from a majority of the Ta Up-country Tamil (56.3%) communities. However, 28.2 of life for most Sri Lankans has got worse, while 26.7% 15.1% don’t know or are unsure as to the quality of life Sinhala community has a divided opinion in this regard ( the same – 29.1%, Has improved – 23%). (Ref. Page 13)
♦ A majority (65.2%) of Sri Lankans don’t know or are un peace in Sri Lanka and this opinion stems mainly from a Tamil (39.4%) and Muslim (51.5%) communities. While Lanka will take some time, 11.3% believe that there will 9.7% believe that peace will come soon. (Ref. Page 14)
♦ 83.9% of Sri Lankans continue to believe that Peace Tal
have peace in Sri Lanka, which is a slight decline since N Page 15)
♦ There is a continuous belief that the lack of political wil
political leaders (40.4%) are the reasons why there hasn the last 15 years. Within the Muslim community there i corrupt military and political leaders are the reason wh (November 2003 - 48.5%, February 2004 – 25.2%). (Ref
♦ Overall, Sri Lankans have a 42.3% level of confidence in
the ethnic communities, the Tamil community has the h in the peace process, while the Muslim (48.3%) and Up- communities follow close behind. The Sinhala communi confidence in the peace process (40.4%). (Ref. Page 17)
♦ 43.5% of Sri Lankans believe that the Government is co talks, which is a slight decline since November 2003 (48
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ndex
E OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
16TH 2004
TO
29TH F
EBRUARY
2004
efire, their quality of life has improved, while 26.2%
ajority (45.8%) state that since the ceasefire, their quality is opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community now or are unsure about their quality of life. Looking at ity of the Tamil (67.3%) and Up-country Tamil (50.9%) e ceasefire their quality of life has improved. The Muslim ided opinion in this regard (Has improved – 42.7%, Is important to note that 28.7% of the Sinhala community as got worse. (Ref. Page 12)
asefire, the quality of life for most Sri Lankans has from a majority of the Tamil (76.2%), Muslim (61.6%) and
munities. However, 28.2% are of the view that the quality got worse, while 26.7% believe that it is about the same. re as to the quality of life for most Sri Lankans. The d opinion in this regard (Has got worse – 31.7%, Is about ed – 23%). (Ref. Page 13)
ans don’t know or are unsure as to when there will be nion stems mainly from a majority of the Sinhala (69.6%), 5%) communities. While 13.9% believe that peace in Sri 3% believe that there will never be peace in Sri Lanka. me soon. (Ref. Page 14)
to believe that Peace Talks is the way to end the war and is a slight decline since November 2003 (88.4%). (Ref.
at the lack of political will (45.5%) and corrupt military and e reasons why there hasn’t been a solution to the war for
uslim community there is a decline in the belief that aders are the reason why there hasn’t been a solution ruary 2004 – 25.2%). (Ref. Page 16)
3% level of confidence in the peace process. Looking at
mil community has the highest level of confidence (55.9%)
Muslim (48.3%) and Up-country Tamil (49.1%) nd. The Sinhala community has the lowest level of
s (40.4%). (Ref. Page 17)
at the Government is committed to find peace through ince November 2003 (48.4%). The ethnic perspective
2004
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
shows that a majority of the Sinhala (42.2%), Tamil (41. country Tamil (45.5%) communities believe the same. (R
♦ 40.2% disagree with the statement that the LTTE is com
talks, which is a slight increase from 37.8% in Novembe opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (Nov 2004 – 45.7%). The ethnic perspective reveals that a ma Muslim (39.8%) and Up-country Tamil (59.6%) commun committed to find peace through talks. (Ref. Page 19)
♦ A majority (38.2%) continues to believe that the Gover commitment to peace, a slight decline since November Lankans also believe that the realisation that this war ca Government goes in for talks. Looking at the ethnic per Sinhala (39.1%) and Up-country Tamil (54.9%) commun goes in for talks due to its commitment to peace. Howe Muslim community believes it is Economic Hardship tha for talks. The Tamil community has a divided opinion in peace – 24.4%, Economic hardship – 20.4%, Internation that this war cannot be won – 20.9%). (Ref. Page 20)
♦ 29.4% believe that the LTTE goes in for talks due to the be won, which is a decline from 32.5% in November 20 the LTTE goes in for talks to fool the people. This is a d (34%). 18.4% believe that the commitment to peace is t talks, an increase from 12.2% in November 2003. (Ref. P
♦ A majority (24.6%) believes in the widest range of invol 15.9% believe that only the Government and the LTTE the ethnic perspective, 63.7% of the Muslim community involvement, which is an increase from 49.5% in Novem the Tamil community believes that only the Governmen involved in negotiations, an increase since November 2 in the widest range of involvement in negotiations. (Ref.
♦ 52.2% of Sri Lankans believe that an international third
positive impact or is essential in the peace process. In c international third party’s involvement is not essential. F Tamil (79.5%), Muslim (68.6%) and Up-country Tamil (4 an international third party’s involvement is essential. 2 believe the same. (Ref. Page 23)
♦ It is revealed in the results that Sri Lankans have a divid Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process (Appr 33.7%). While a majority (38.7%) of the Sinhala commu assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process, a majority of t and Up-country Tamil (57.2%) communities approve of
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ndex
nhala (42.2%), Tamil (41.9%), Muslim (61.3%) and Up- nities believe the same. (Ref. Page 18)
ent that the LTTE is committed to find peace through from 37.8% in November 2003. This slight increase in Sinhala community (November 2003 – 43.5%, February spective reveals that a majority of the Tamil (75.9%), y Tamil (59.6%) communities believe that the LTTE is gh talks. (Ref. Page 19)
o believe that the Government goes in for talks due to its decline since November 2003 (40.8%). 26.4% of Sri ealisation that this war cannot be won is the reason the Looking at the ethnic perspective, a majority of the y Tamil (54.9%) communities believe that the Government
mitment to peace. However, a majority (54.4%) of the is Economic Hardship that makes the Government go in y has a divided opinion in this regard (Commitment to ship – 20.4%, International pressure – 25.2%, Realisation 20.9%). (Ref. Page 20)
es in for talks due to the realisation that this was cannot 32.5% in November 2003. However, 27.9% believe that ol the people. This is a decline since November 2003 ommitment to peace is the reason the LTTE goes in for n November 2003. (Ref. Page 21)
the widest range of involvement in negotiations, while vernment and the LTTE should be involved. Looking at f the Muslim community believe in the widest range of se from 49.5% in November 2003. A majority (28.6%) of that only the Government and the LTTE should be rease since November 2003 (11.9%), while 24.1% believe
ent in negotiations. (Ref. Page 22)
at an international third party’s involvement will have a n the peace process. In contrast, 21.7% believe that an lvement is not essential. Furthermore, a majority of the
and Up-country Tamil (41.6%) communities believe that volvement is essential. 21.1% of the Sinhala community )
t Sri Lankans have a divided opinion with regard to
kan peace process (Approve – 31.9%, Disapprove – %) of the Sinhala community disapproves of Norway e process, a majority of the Tamil (90.3%), Muslim (66.2%) communities approve of this. (Ref. Page 24)
2004
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♦ There is a divided opinion with regard to Norway cont – 29.8%, Disapprove – 33.7%). The ethnic perspective r Tamil (88.3%), Muslim (57.3%) and Up-country Tamil (5 Norway continuing to facilitate talks. It is important to increase in the Muslim community’s approval, from 35% February 2004. Contrary to this, a majority (38.3%) of t disapproves of Norway continuing to facilitate talks. (Re
♦ 53% of Sri Lankans believe that India’s involvement in th
have a positive impact or is essential. On the contrary, involvement is not essential. The ethnic perspective rev (59.5%), Muslim (68.2%) and Up-country Tamil (60.3%) involvement is essential, while a majority of the Sinhala India’s involvement will have a positive impact on the Sr Page 26)
♦ Of those who are aware of the involvement of foreign ceasefire, 31.7% believe such a monitoring mission will success of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). Looking at of the Sinhala community (34.6%) believes the same, wh (83.7%), Muslim (67.4%) and Up-country Tamil (44.3%) monitoring mission is essential. (Ref. Page 27)
♦ 36.4% of Sri Lankans believe that the Sri Lanka Monitor
impartial in its monitoring of the CFA. This opinion stem community (40.6%). Looking at the other ethnic commu (70.5%), Muslim (46.8%) and Up-country Tamil (38.9%) impartial in its monitoring of the CFA. It is important to community’s opinion has significantly increased from 23 in February 2004. (Ref. Page 28)
♦ A majority (35.1%) believe that the SLMM is not effectiv and this opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala commun Tamil (69.5%), Muslim (46.6%) and Up-country Tamil (4 the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the CFA. Loo opinion, specifically, there is a significant increase in the in its monitoring of the CFA since November 2003 (17
♦ When asked whether they believe that federalism is the country, a significant 57.3% were unable to respond, wh November 2003. This increase in opinion stems from t the ethnic communities, Sinhala (November 2003 - 24.9 (November 2003 - 16.2%, February 2004 - 45.8%), Mus February 2004 - 31.8%) and Up-country Tamil (Novem 73.6%). However, a majority of the Muslim community the best way of governing this country. (Ref. Page 30)
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regard to Norway continuing to facilitate talks (Approve The ethnic perspective reveals that a majority of the and Up-country Tamil (56%) communities approve of
talks. It is important to note that there is a significant nity’s approval, from 35% in November 2003 to 57.3% in is, a majority (38.3%) of the Sinhala community uing to facilitate talks. (Ref. Page 25)
t India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process will
ential. On the contrary, 19% believe that India’s he ethnic perspective reveals that a majority of the Tamil p-country Tamil (60.3%) communities believe that India’s a majority of the Sinhala community (32.5%) believes that positive impact on the Sri Lankan peace process. (Ref.
involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the monitoring mission will have a positive impact on the ment (CFA). Looking at the ethnic perspective, a majority %) believes the same, while a majority of the Tamil p-country Tamil (44.3%) communities believe that such a . (Ref. Page 27)
at the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) is not e CFA. This opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala t the other ethnic communities, a majority of the Tamil p-country Tamil (38.9%) communities believe the SLMM is
e CFA. It is important to note that the Muslim icantly increased from 23.8% in November 2003 to 46.8% )
t the SLMM is not effective in its monitoring of the CFA from the Sinhala community (38.6%). A majority of the
and Up-country Tamil (46.3%) communities believe that nitoring of the CFA. Looking at the Muslim community’s significant increase in the belief that the SLMM is effective nce November 2003 (17%). (Ref. Page 29)
ieve that federalism is the best way of governing this re unable to respond, which is an increase from 22.3% in in opinion stems from the increase in the opinion of all a (November 2003 - 24.9%, February 2004 - 59.3%), Tamil ruary 2004 - 45.8%), Muslim (November 2003 - 4.8%,
-country Tamil (November 2003 - 6.7%, February 2004 - f the Muslim community (50.7%) believes that federalism is country. (Ref. Page 30)
2004
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♦ 57.2% of Sri Lankans are unable to respond as to wheth secession. This opinion stems from a majority of the Sin Muslim (36.6%) and Up-country Tamil (71.8%) commun decline in the opinion that federalism will lead to – 32.3%, February 2004 – 15.8%) and this decline in in the opinion within the Sinhala community (Novembe 16.2%). (Ref. Page 31)
♦ A majority (60.6%) is unable to respond whether federa community, a significant increase since November 2003 stems from the increase in the opinion of all the ethnic 2003 - 27.6%, February 2004 - 62.8%), Tamil (Novembe 49.4%), Muslim (November 2003 – 10.4%, February 200 Tamil (November 2003 – 22.9%, February 2004 – 70.6% of the Muslim community and 40.9% of the Tamil comm be fair by every community. (Ref. Page 32)
♦ When asked whether they would agree with federalism Sri Lankans, 42.6% are unable to respond. This is an inc (20%). Looking at the ethnic perspective, a majority of t (46.9%) communities don’t know whether they would a approved by a majority of Sri Lankans. However, a majo community agrees with the statement. (Ref. Page 33)
♦ A majority (49.3%) believes that the people are not bei
federalism. This opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala ( country Tamil (55%) communities. In comparison, 37.6% are being adequately informed about federalism. This is November 2003. (Ref. Page 34)
♦ Of the 93.2% who are aware that the SLFP and JVP sign 2004, forming an alliance, 37% believe that this new allia on the country. This opinion stems mainly from the Sin contrast, 35.6% are uncertain about the impact of this n addition, 22.3% believe that this will have a negative imp stems mainly from the Tamil (76.3%), Muslim (47.4%) an communities. (Ref. Page 35)
♦ Of those who are aware that the SLFP and JVP signed a
2004, forming an alliance, 38.5% are uncertain about the the peace process, in comparison to 31.3% who believe the peace process. 22.6% believe that this new alliance peace process. This opinion stems mainly from the Tam Up-country Tamil (61.8%) communities. (Ref. Page 36)
♦ Of the 80.2% who are aware of the allegations against C
conversions”, 70.4% believe these allegations, while 18.
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ndex
e to respond as to whether federalism will lead to from a majority of the Sinhala (58.8%), Tamil (47.5%), y Tamil (71.8%) communities. There is a significant federalism will lead to secession (November 2003 5.8%) and this decline in opinion stems from the decline la community (November 2003 – 38.1%, February 2004 –
respond whether federalism will be fair by every se since November 2003 (25.5%). This increase in opinion opinion of all the ethnic communities, Sinhala (November 62.8%), Tamil (November 2003 - 15.8%, February 2004 - 03 – 10.4%, February 2004 – 35.4%) and Up-country %, February 2004 – 70.6%). However, a majority (46.9%) 40.9% of the Tamil community believe that federalism will ef. Page 32)
uld agree with federalism if it approved by a majority of to respond. This is an increase since November 2003
rspective, a majority of the Sinhala (44.6%) and Tamil w whether they would agree with federalism if it is ankans. However, a majority (69.1%) of the Muslim tement. (Ref. Page 33)
t the people are not being adequately informed about mainly from the Sinhala (51%), Muslim (45.2%) and Up- ties. In comparison, 37.6% are uncertain whether people
about federalism. This is an increase from 15.4% in )
hat the SLFP and JVP signed a MoU on the 20th of January believe that this new alliance will have a positive impact tems mainly from the Sinhala community (42.4%). In
bout the impact of this new alliance on the country. In is will have a negative impact on the country. This opinion
6.3%), Muslim (47.4%) and Up-country Tamil (60.4%)
he SLFP and JVP signed a MoU on the 20th of January % are uncertain about the impact of this new alliance on
on to 31.3% who believe it will have a positive impact on ve that this new alliance will have a negative impact on the ems mainly from the Tamil (73.7%), Muslim (50.4%) and
munities. (Ref. Page 36)
f the allegations against Christian churches of “unethical ese allegations, while 18.7% do not believe them. Looking
2004
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at the ethnic perspective, a majority of the Sinhala (71.9 (70.2%) and Up-country Tamil (53.8%) communities bel 38)
♦ Of those who are aware of the allegations against Chris conversions”, a majority (72.3%) believes that there is a conversions”. However, 19.4% do not believe that ther ethnic perspective, while a majority of the Sinhala (75.5 (66.7%) communities believe that there is a problem, a community (63.4%) do not believe there is a problem. I is a significant percentage of the Tamil community (42.2 is a problem of “unethical conversions”. (Ref. Page 39)
♦ Of those who agree that there is a problem of “unethic 88.9% believe that something should be done about it. (
♦ Of the 50.7% who are aware of the proposed legislation
conversions, 73.3% approve of this proposed legislation disapprove. Looking at the ethnic perspective, a majorit (58.9%), Muslim (66.5%) and Up-country Tamil (57.9%) proposed legislation. However, it is important to note t the Tamil (38.5%), Muslim (23.9%) and Up-country Tam of this proposed legislation. (Ref. Page 42)
♦ Looking at the religious breakdown of those who are a
to prevent “unethical conversions, a majority of those w Hinduism (65.1%) and Islam (65.6%) approve of this pro majority of those who practice Christianity (Roman Ca (Non-Roman Catholic) (73.4%) disapprove of this prop
♦ Of the 64.5% who are aware of the recent attacks on C don’t know or are unsure whether the President has ta these attacks. However, while 34.2% believe she has tak believe she has taken effective action to deal with these perspective, a majority of the Tamil (75.8%) and Up-cou do not believe that the President has taken effective act Within the Sinhala community, however, 42% don’t kno taken effective action, while 37% believe she has taken community has a divided opinion in this regard (Yes – 3 know/Not sure – 32.7%). (Ref. Page 45)
♦ Of those who are aware of the recent attacks on Chris
know or are unsure whether the Prime Minister has tak these attacks. However, 27.7% do not believe that he h 23.3% believe that he has taken effective action to deal the Tamil (64.8%) and Up-country Tamil (53.4%) comm Prime Minister has taken effective action to deal with th
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004

ndex
jority of the Sinhala (71.9%), Tamil (57.3%), Muslim (53.8%) communities believe these allegations. (Ref. Page
allegations against Christian churches of “unethical ) believes that there is a problem of “unethical do not believe that there is a problem. Looking at the ority of the Sinhala (75.5%), Tamil (52.5%) and Muslim
at there is a problem, a majority of the Up-country Tamil ieve there is a problem. It is important to note that there e Tamil community (42.2%) who do not believe that there ersions”. (Ref. Page 39)
is a problem of “unethical conversions”, a significant hould be done about it. (Ref. Page 40)
f the proposed legislation to prevent “unethical this proposed legislation in comparison to 14.9% who nic perspective, a majority of the Sinhala (74.9%), Tamil p-country Tamil (57.9%) communities approve of this , it is important to note that a significant proportion of 9%) and Up-country Tamil (22%) communities disapprove ef. Page 42)
own of those who are aware of the proposed legislation ons, a majority of those who practice Buddhism (82%), 5.6%) approve of this proposed legislation, while a
Christianity (Roman Catholic) (42.1%) and Christianity ) disapprove of this proposed legislation. (Ref. Page 43)
f the recent attacks on Christian places of worship, 39.2% ther the President has taken effective action to deal with 34.2% believe she has taken effective action, 26.6% do not action to deal with these attacks. Looking at the ethnic
amil (75.8%) and Up-country Tamil (54.7%) communities nt has taken effective action to deal with these attacks. , however, 42% don’t know or are unsure whether she has
% believe she has taken effective action. The Muslim on in this regard (Yes – 36.4%, No – 31%, Don’t
Page 45)
recent attacks on Christian places of worship, 49% don’t he Prime Minister has taken effective action to deal with do not believe that he has taken effective action, while
effective action to deal with these attacks. A majority of try Tamil (53.4%) communities do not believe that the tive action to deal with these attacks, while a majority of
2004
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
the Sinhala community (53.3%) don’t know or are unsu however, has a divided opinion in this regard (Yes – 37 39%). (Ref. Page 46)
♦ Of those who are aware of the recent attacks on Chris uncertain whether the Inspector General of Police (IGP deal with these attacks. 32.7% believe that he has taken not believe so. Looking at the ethnic perspective a majo Up-country Tamil (53.1%) communities are uncertain w action. A majority of the Tamil community (71.3%) do n effective action, while a majority of the Muslim commun taken effective action to deal with these attacks. (Ref. Pa
♦ Of the 98% who are aware of the dissolution of parliam and the decision to hold elections on the 2nd of April 20 the impact of a general election on the peace process. H general election will have a positive impact on the peac that it will have a negative impact. 10.6% believe that it process. (Ref. Page 48)
For further information please
Reshma Harjani or Pradeep Pe
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternativ
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@dia Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www

ndex
don’t know or are unsure. The Muslim community, in this regard (Yes – 37.7%, Don’t know/Not sure –
recent attacks on Christian places of worship, 44.8% are or General of Police (IGP) has taken effective action to believe that he has taken effective action, while 22.5% do ethnic perspective a majority of the Sinhala (47.5%) and munities are uncertain whether he has taken effective l community (71.3%) do not believe that he has taken ty of the Muslim community (50.6%) believes that he has
ith these attacks. (Ref. Page 47)
the dissolution of parliament on the 7th of February 2004 ons on the 2nd of April 2004, 48.5% are uncertain about n on the peace process. However, 24% believe that a sitive impact on the peace process, while 16.9% believe act. 10.6% believe that it will have no impact on the peace
er information please contact:
ma Harjani or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator ntre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 70475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
2004
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDE
M
AY
2001 – F
EBRUARY
20
C
ONFIDENCE IN
P
EACE
Since the ceasefire, would you say your quality
National Breakdown
5.4
22.6 26.2
45.8
Ethnic Breakdown
National
5.4
26.2
22.6
45.8
Up-country Tamil
8.1
20.4 20.6
5.9
16.4
28.7
49
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
%
50.9
Muslim
1.1
17.5
38.6
42.7
Tamil
0.8
4.9
27
67.3
Sinhala

I C
ONFIDENCE
NDEX
(PCI)
2001 – F
EBRUARY
2004
you say your quality of life ...
reakdown
22.6
.8
Has improved Is about the same Has got worse Don't know/Not sure
eakdown
7.3
80 90 100
Don't know/Not sure Has got worse Is about the same Has improved
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Since the ceasefire, do you think the quality of ...
National Breakdown
15.1
30.1
28.2
26.7
Ethnic Breakdown
15.1
National
28.2 26.7
30.1
15.9
Up-country Tamil
11.1
16.7
56.3
7.2
Muslim
14.7
16.6
61.6
6.1
Tamil
6.7
11
76.2
16.2
Sinhala
31.7 29.1 23
0 10 20 30 40 50 %
60 70 80 90 100

u think the quality of life for most Sri Lankans
l Breakdown
30.1
26.7
Has improved Is about the same Has got worse Don't know/Not sure
Breakdown
76.2 .3
Don't know/Not sure Has got worse Is about the same Has improved 61.6
70 80 90 100
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
When do you think there will be peace in Sri La
National Breakdown
9.7
13.
65.2
Ethnic Breakdown
7.3
65.2
National
11.3
13.9 9.7
34.1
Up-country Tamil
8
23.9
34.1
69.6 11.7 11.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10
%
51.5
Muslim
8.3
30.3 9.9
39.4
Tamil
11
24.4 25.2
Sinhala

will be peace in Sri Lanka?
nal Breakdown
9.7
13.9
11.3
Soon Will take some time Never Don't know
Breakdown
65.2
69.6
0 70 80 90 100
Don't know Never Will take some time Soon
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
S
OLUTIONS TO THE
C
ONFLICT
How do you think we can end the war and [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
100
90
80.7
85
87.2
84.4
86
83.7
83.7
86.7 87.4
80
71.3
70
59.1
68.6
71.9
60
%
50
40
30
18
24.4
20
19.9 20
10
7.6
10.1
5.5
6.5
0
May '01 November
'01
Ethnic Breakdown
5.8
9.9
7
7.2 1.3
0.8 1 0.9
1.1
0.8
0.8
1 10.4
7
1.1 0.3
0.6
0.4
May '02 November
'02
May '03
94
Up-country Tamil
0.5
0
1.2
0.1
%
89.5
Muslim
1.9 0.9
92.
Tamil
1.3
82.4
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10

n end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
83.7
83.7
86.7 87.4
81.9
84.6
88.4
83.9
5.5
ovember
'02
Government defeating the LTTE
LTTE defeating the Government
Peace talks
6.5
10.4
7
11.1
9.1
1.1 0.3
0.6
0.4
6.8
5
c Breakdown
82.4
0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3
May '03 November
'03
94
89.5
0 70 80 90 100
Peace talks
LTTE defeating the 92.5
Government
Government defeating the LTTE
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think there hasn’t been a solution odd years? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
50
46.2
37.3 34.1
7.5
May '01 November
'01
44.2 44
40.5
44
7.3
8.6
9.3
4.8
44.2
41.8 39.1
39.4 40
33.4
38.5
36.7
37.1
41.4
34.8
30.1
30.9
34.8 30
30.3
31.8
35
30.6
30.2
33.1
32.7
%
20
25.8
24.5
22.2
21.2
18.5
20.7
18.6
18.2
19.5 19.1
15.7 13.1
10
10.6 10.5
11.3
7.6
0
6.5 6.5
7
0
May '02 November
May '03 '02
Ethnic Breakdown
33.5 18.3 Up-country Tamil
1.2
3.2
1.2
22 14.9 7.8
43.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
45.4
4.9
22.6
27.9 19.2 Muslim
4.9
10
37.9 25.2
11.4 6.9 Tamil
0.5
39 26.5
Sinhala
46.6

asn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15
ers]
National Trend
40.5
44.2
41.8
44
42.8
44.2
41.4
45.5
Corrupt military 40.4
and political 41.4
leaders
32.7
No political will
LTTE does not want peace
8.5
War is necessary 7.5 7
34.8
34.2
37.9
33.1
32.5
19.5 19.1
17.6
7
for people in power
reakdown
43.5
20.3
15.7
14
ovember
'02
11.3
13.1
10.6
14.8
7.6
4.8
May '03 November
'03
33.5
45.4
.9
0 40 50
Don't know
War is necessary for people in power
37.9
LTTE does not want peace
The strength of the LTTE
No political will 39 5
Corrupt military and political leaders
46.6
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
How confident are you in the peace process?
Ethnic Breakdown
National
Up-country Tamil
Muslim
Tamil
Sinhala
0 10 20 30
%

the peace process?
ic Breakdown
42.3
40.4
30 40 50 60
%
49.1
48.3
55.9
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
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C
ONFIDENCE
I think the Government is committed to find pe
National Trend
80
69.8
70.2
70
60
63.7
50.2
53
58
61.8
59.4
56.7
50. 50
4443.8
%
40
31.4 30
23.8
22.5
24.5
20
11.9
9.8
9.1
12
15.1
18.6
20.9
19. 10
0
May '01 November '01 May '02 November '02
Ethnic Breakdown
18.8
Up-country Tamil
17.6
23.3
42.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
45.5
20.5
Muslim
7.6
25
Tamil
13.4
21.4
41.9
Sinhala

committed to find peace through talks.
National Trend
63.7
59.4
56.7
50.1
53.9
48
44
48.4
43.5
15.1
18.6
Agree
Disagree
nic Breakdown
42.2
30.3
22.5
21.6
24
23
20.9
19.1
November '02 May '03 November '03
45.5
40 50 60 70
%
Disagree
61.3
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
41.9
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace th
National Trend
80
15.8
May '01 September
'01
68.5 70
63.5
60
50.6
53.2
50
45.7
45. 42.7
38.2 32.9
0
39.5 %
40
39.8 38.9
30
20
17.3
12.9
9.8
22.2
27.3
25.7
27.5
28.3 29.3 29
19
10
January '02 May '02 September
'02
Ethnic Breakdown
14
January '03
4.2
Up-country Tamil
13.4
45.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
59.6
23.1
Muslim
12.9
20.3
39.8
8.2
Tamil
3.5
Sinhala

itted to find peace through talks.
National Trend
50.3
37.8
21.4
September '02
45.7
44.9
47.2
38.2
39.8 38.9
40.2
.5
Agree
28.3 29.3 29
20.5
18.2
Disagree
ic Breakdown
75.9
22.5
19.7
25.7
January '03 May '03 September
'03
February '04
59.6
45.7
50 60 70 80 9.8
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the Government go Answers]
National Trend
60
50
44.6 39
41.7
48.8
45.3
42.1
40
35.8
39.5
35.5 37.5
33.4
27
32.4
32.5
38.3
38.3 38
36.8 33.2
%
30
29.6
28.9
24.1
28.9
24.1
29.9
28.6
27.2
29
18.6
24.5
19.9 19.8 20
19.7
14.5
16.2
17.6
15.5
23.8
2
18
17.2
20.1
24.1
24.6
20.7
9.7
12.2
11.9 8.4
12.4
10 8
10.6
7.18.8 14.1
12.9
13.1
1
10
10.3
10.3
10.9 11
0
7.1
9.5
7.4
4.5
4.2 3.5 4.3
3.2
3.9
6.6
5.2
3.7
June '01 January '02 July '02 January '03 July
Ethnic Breakdown
4.3
7.9
Up-country Tamil
6.1
25.6
2.2
18.1
26.4
39.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 6
%
31.1
5.5
54.9
4.8 4.9 Muslim
33.4
41.1
18.3
29.2
54.4
6.3 6 Tamil
20.9
25.2 20.4
24.4
Sinhala

the Government goes in for talks? [Multiple
National Trend
40.2
21.3
9
Commitment to peace
Economic hardship
8.3 38.3 38
36.8
International pressure
Realisation that this war cannot be won
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
c Breakdown
39.1
40.8
38.2
9.9
28.6
27.2
29
29.2
34.6
28.1
24.1
24.6
20.7 0.1
10.3
23.8
22.4
22.8
19.5
26.4
14.1
12.9
13.1
18.2
20.3
16.6
15.9 .3
10.9 11 11.2
10.3
10.6
3.9
6.6
5.2
3.7 4.6
2.9
2.1
2.8
January '03 July '03 February '04
Lack of manpower 54.9
To fool the people 3.4
41.1
54.4
Realisation that this war cannot be won
International pressure
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
40 50 60
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Page 24
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think that the LTTE goes in for tal
Natiomal Trend
50
44.9
40
37.3 34.6 31.3
%
30
29.1
27.3
27.9
31.5
30.8
27.7
30.8
28.7
28.5 29.1 22.4
20
18.7
18.3
25.1
24.5
24.7
23.4
27.4
25.6
25
24.3 21.9
16.7
15.2
15.4
14.9
19.1
15.9
16.9
13.9
20.4
18.6 19
14.9
12.3
14.6
15.5
18.2 18.1
23.9
14.6
13.9
22.5 20
16.1
16.1
20.5
18.5
23.2
22.1
14.5
June '01 January '02 July '02 January '03 July '03
16.7
15.7 20
19.2 16.5
14.6
12.9
10
13.8
8.9
12.5
12.8
14.4
12.4
13.1
10.3
12.8
13.2
12.6
11.9
11
10.4 8.5
6.6
0
Ethnic Breakdown
2
4.1
Up-country Tamil
7
31.6
19.8
51
29.7 14.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
55.2
8.7
30.7 4.4 Muslim
45.5
8.3
32.8
13.8
31.9
42.2 22.8
2.6 1.8
Tamil
7.1
15.4 13.5
Sinhala

e LTTE goes in for talks? [Multiple Answers]
Natiomal Trend
10.2
Commitment to peace
37.3
35.3
34
Economic hardship
8
28.7
28.5
29.1 32.5 29.4 20.5
25.6
18.5
23.2 25
24.3 21.9
26.6
27.9
International pressure
22.1
Realisation that this
6.1
16.7
15.7 20
19.2
17.9 15.3 14.5
12.4
war cannot be won
To fool the people
9.4 9.1
Lack of manpower
Breakdown
51
20.1
12.2
18.4
16.5
14.6
12.9
15.4 3.2
12.6
11.9
11
11.6 10.4
12.2
nuary '03 July '03 February '04
55.2
42.2
Lack of manpower
45.5
To fool the people
Realisation that this war cannot be won
International pressure
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
.8
40 50 60
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
T
HE
P
EACE
P
ROCESS
Who should be involved in negotiations?
National Trend
40
36.7
32.1
33.9
30
25.1
31.3
25.8
27
26.7
%
20
19 16.2
15.5
12.4
23
15.9
13.5
21.6
21.7 19.9
15.1
14.2
16.4
19.1
14 15.5
12.1
11
21.9
18.3
20.3
23.3
16.6
16.4
17.2
18.6
1
10
6.6
9.5
12.9
9.8
9.5
6 4.3 4
4.8
2.1
2.1 2.5 2.4
1.9
1.4 1
1.5
0.9
1
0
May '01 November '01 May '02 November '02 May '03
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamil
0
12.8
4.7
5.2
7.3
10.3
17.1 17.2
0
5.7
Muslim
0 0
20
0.9
3.7
Tamil
0
7
11.8
24.1
3
3.6
20.4
2.6
4.3
5.8
7.2
12.1
15.8
28.6
15.6
22 Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

n negotiations?
National Trend
26.7
11.6
Govt. and LTTE only
27
25.1
23 20.3
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
13.9
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third
6.8
party
No peace talks
thnic Breakdown
63.7
40 50 60 70
24.6
18.3
23.3
16.4
1.4 1
0.9 1.9
22
17.2
18.6
12.5
15.9
12.9
9.8
9.5
9.3
9.5
10.2
6.3
1.5 1.3 1.2
2.2
mber '02 May '03 November '03
Don't know
No peace talks
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil parties and a third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt. and LTTE only
Page 22

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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NTERNATIONAL
F
ACILITATION
What is your opinion of the need for an in involvement to solve the North East war in Sri
National Trend
16
T
HIRD
P
ARTY
40
38
35.8
30
32.6
28.9
32.5 32.5
30.9
31.9
30.2
30.6 29.8
31.7
32.1
30.5
24.2
29
28.8
29
29 29.3
28.6
2
%
20
21.8
20.9
26.1
19.5 1
16.8
16.5
14.2
10 9.6
9.6
10.2
September '01 March '02 September '02 March '03 Septe
Ethnic Breakdown
21.1
17.9
13.1
13.2
14.2
16.7
16.2
14.5
11.3 10
9.9
11.3
9.2
11.6
9.5
5.4
0.7
10.3
10.5 10.2
10
9.9
3.2
2.1
0
5.4
5.7
4.3
3.7 3.7
0.9
1.4
4.6
1.4
1.4 1.6
1
0.9
2.3
13.3
Up-country Tamil
1.9
2.6
9.4
41.6
8.3
10.8 Muslim
0.8
1.8
8.4
0.1
13.3
2.8
4.6
27
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
68.6
6.5
7.8 Tamil
2.3
3.1
79.5
24.5 Sinhala

F
ACILITATION
f the need for an international third party’s North East war in Sri Lanka?
National Trend
30.6 29.8
32.1
30.5
30.7
30.3
Is essential
29 29.3
31.7
28.6
26.2
29.2
28.6
Will add a positive
23.6 19.5 19.2 19.8
impact Will have no impact
Will add a negative impact
9.5
Is not essential
Don't know/Not sure
1.4 1.6
1
2.4
ic Breakdown
79.5
21.7 17.9
16.2
14.5
.5 10.2
10
9.9
9.6
9.9
12.6
5.7
4.3
3.7 3.7
5.4
2.8
March '03 September '03
4.2 0.9
2.1 1.7 Don't know/Not sure
Is not essential
68.6
Will add a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will add a positive impact
Is essential
60 70 80 90
Page 23

Page 27
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
N
ORWEGIAN
F
ACILITATION
Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace proce
National Trend
60
53.8
50
50.7
42.4
46.3
42.7 40
37
42.3
38
43.3
34.6
%
30
20.5
23.1
19.4
24.5
22.4
23
28.2
29.8
22.7
20.5 29.5
20
15.5
18
18
17.9
22.8
22.1
21.8
18.7
21
10
13.6 12.8
21.1
14.6
9.1
7.8 8.8
0
January '02 July' 02 January '03 July '03
Ethnic Breakdown
23.7
10.2
11.1
11.8
28.8
Up-country Tamil
5.3
8.5
57.2
13
Muslim
3.7
17
66.2
6
Tamil
2.3 1.1
24.8
Sinhala
12.4
38.7
0 10 20 30 40 %
50 60 70 80 9

i Lankan peace process
National Trend
42.3
38
43.3
34.6 36
32.8
31.9
11 10.2
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
90.3
33.7
2
29.8
22.7
8.7
29.5
33
31.1
20.5
19.3
23.1
21
21.1
22.6
11.1
11.8
14.6
10.8
13.4
ry '03 July '03 February '04
57.2
60 70 80 90 100
Don't know/Not sure
66.2
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
Page 24

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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Norway continuing to facilitate talks.
National Trend
50
44.1
42.6
40
41.3
38.2
38.7
32.2
33.8
%
30
29.4
26.9
32 31.9
22.6
23.3
19.7
22.2
13.6
10.7
September '02 January '03 May '03 September
Ethnic Breakdown
22
20.9
21.8
21.3
0
19.9 20
21.8
21.8
11.9
13.2
10
12.4
13.8 13
28.5
Up-country Tamil
4.8
10
6
1.1
26.3
38.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
56
14.5
Muslim
6.8
20.6
13
57.3
Tamil
4.3
Sinhala

ilitate talks.
National Trend
42.6
32.2
33.8
32
Approve
29.8
Neither approve 28.9
nor disapprove
Disapprove
1.8
Don't know/Not
12.4
11.8
sure
nic Breakdown
88.3
33.7
32 31.9
.2
21.3
19.9
23.2
24.4
13.8 13.4
15.7
'03 September '03 February '04
56
50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Don't know/Not sure
57.3
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
Page 25

Page 29
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I
NDIA
’
S
I
NVOLVEMENT
What is your opinion of the need for India’ Lankan peace process?
National Trend
50
40
31.7
33.8
32.7
35.5
35.9
39.6
30.4 30
27
%
26.1
26.6 20.8 20
16.2
16.4
15.6
19.2
14.9
27.5
18.6
22.3
14.3
16.2
13 12.9
2.7
0
1.2
May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03 Sep
Ethnic Breakdown
17.2
17.4
16.8
15.8
13.6
15.9
10
13.1
12.5
13.5
3.5
5.9 8.4 9.2
7.1
5.6
12.4 5.3 6.1
1.9
1.3 1.7
3
1.6 1.6 9.9 5.6 Up-country Tamil
3.7 3.6
6.8
17.4
21.1 4.9 2.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
6
9.4 8.3 Muslim
2.1 1.6
8.9
10 10.3 Tamil
6.3
8.6
4.4
32.5
59
Sinhala

f the need for India’s involvement in the Sri
National Trend
22.3
Is essential
5.9
39.6
30.4
31.2
28.2
Will add a positive impact
27.9
Will have no 27.5
27.4
impact
Will add a negative impact
Is not essential
Don't know/Not
3
2
sure
hnic Breakdown
59.5
24.6
24.8
8.6
17.9
19.1
15.8
13.6
15.9
12.7 13 12.4 12.9
12.8
19 16.1
5.6 5.3 6.1 5.7 5 4.9
1.6 1.6 2.1
2.5
May '03 September '03 February '04
60.3
40 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know/Not sure
Is not essential
68.2
Will add a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will add a positive impact
Is essential
Page 26

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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
R
ECENT
P
OLITICAL
D
EVELO
S
RI
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
If you are aware of the involvement of foreig the ceasefire, what is your opinion of the ne mission for the ceasefire agreement to succeed
National Trend
50
37.9
39.4
39.3
40.5
41.5
37.5
43.5
1.2
March '02 July '02 November
'02
43
40
31.2
33.6
32
%
30
26.7 26.3
29.7
25.3
26.7
29
27.2
3.9
Ethnic Breakdown
16.8
24.8
26.6
20
15.8
10.3 10
7.3
4.6
5.6
6.7
8.4
5.2 5.2
12.1
5.6
9.6
6.9
7.2
8.5 9.1 4.5
1.4
4.1
3.8 4.2
7.5
3.7 1.7
5.3
5.4 1.9
5.8
4.1
2.8
0
4.2
1.9
1.7 0.6
0.4 0.2 0.6 March '03 July '03 Nov
0
Up-country
0 Tamil
0
3
6.8
29.4
2.4
5.3
0
4.2
6.3
%
44.3
0.9
Muslim
2.4
14.2
67.4
1.2 Tamil
0.5
9.7
83.7
1.3
19.3 Sinhala
34.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
ION
nvolvement of foreign monitors in monitoring ur opinion of the need for such a monitoring
greement to succeed?
National Trend
25.4
Is essential
43.5
Will have a positive
32
33.2
impact
29
27.2
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Is not essential
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
reakdown
83.7
31.7
24.8
26.6
29.4
15.8
12.1
13.2
16.7
7.2 .2 .7
8.5
2.8
5.3
5.4
9.1 6.8
5.5
.4
0.2 0.6 3.9
1.2 2.2 2.8
3.9 1.1
'03 July '03 November
'03
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
Is not essential
67.4
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
Is essential
70 80 90
Page 27

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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is imp the ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
50
40
35.5
29
31.7
33.2
30.3
32.8
32.1
31.3 30
33.1
26.8
27.4
%
28.9
23.6
27.6
27
30.1
26.9
18
14.6
May '02 September '02 January '03 May '03 Sept
Ethnic Breakdown
18.9
21.3
19.6
21.9
0
22.5 20
15.7
21.4
22.8
19.2
18.9
17.4
19.6 18 17.8
10
35.8
Up-country Tamil
1
24.3
38.9
13.6
Muslim
13.9
25.7
46.8
14.3
Tamil
5.8
9.2
29
Sinhala
11.1
40.6
0 10 20 30 %
40 50 60

itoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of
National Trend
43.6
37 36.4
.8
32.1
1.3
19.6
24.8
11.3
Agree
31.3
7
30.1
21.9
26.9
23.6
24.4
27.1
Neither agree nor disagree
18.1
21.4
Disagree
8.9
17.4
19.6
14.4
Don't know/Not sure
May '03 September '03 February '04
hnic Breakdown
70.5
17.2
.8
38.9
40.6
0 50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure 46.8
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
Page 28

Page 32
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effe the ceasefire agreement.
National Trend
50
22.8
July '02 November
'02
40.7 40
19.3
20.3
33 31.4
%
30
26.1
28.7
30.5
26
24.3
30.6
29.4 28
26.6
24
29.4 21.3
25.7
25.6
22.8
20
24.8
21.4
23.8 19.7
22.4
21.1
22.4 19.1
19.1
18.6
17.1
10
0
Ethnic Breakdown
17.2
March '03 July '03
23.8
Up-country Tamil
8.5
21.4
30.7
38.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
46.3
15
Muslim
14.2
24
13.1
46.6
12.8
Tamil
5.2
12.4
Sinhala

itoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of
National Trend
40.7
29.4
33
34.8
35.1
Agree
25.6
26
28.2 29.4 21.1
22.8
23.5 22.4 19.1
12.8
Neither agree nor disagree
19.7
Disagree
19.1
18.6 17.1
19.4
Don't know/Not sure
July '03 November
'03
nic Breakdown
46.3
69.5
38.6
40 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know/Not sure
46.6
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Page 33
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
EDERAL
S
OLUTION
I believe federalism is the best way of governing
Ethnic Breakdown
9.1
National Trend
70
60
50
47
40
36.3
%
30
29.1
23.1
22.3
20
21.9
12.3
10
8
0
September '03 November '03 Febru
Up-country Tamil
9.8 9.6 6.5
31.8
Muslim
9.1 8.3
45.8
24.5 6.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
50.7
Tamil
2
5.2
46.9
Sinhala

best way of governing this country.
National Trend
57.3
13.9
6.8
'03 February '04
thnic Breakdown
46.9
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
No response 21.7
73.6
8
40 50 60 70 80
%
No response
50.7
Disagree
45.8
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
59.3
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think federalism will lead to secession.
National Trend
70
60
50
41.8
40
32.3
%
30
9.8
September '03 November '03 Fe
Ethnic Breakdown
16.2
31.2 27.5 20
24.7 20.9
10
0
11.8
Up-country Tamil
6.8
9.4
11.5
36.6
Muslim
9.7
33.4
20
58 16.3 7.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
47.5
Tamil
7.2
35.4
9.3
Sinhala

to secession.
National Trend
57.2
15.8
7.9
er '03 February '04
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
No response
thnic Breakdown
35.4
18.3
71.8
36.6
40 50 60 70 80
No response .4
Disagree
47.5
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
58.8
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Federalism will be fair by every community.
National Trend
70
60
50
22.4
10.7
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
41.4 40
%
30
20
18.6
11.5
10
8.1
0
Disagree
Ethnic Breakdown
6.9
70
Up-country Tamil
10.9 11.3 6.7
35.4
Muslim
8
9.2
62.8 20.8 8.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
46.9
49.4
Tamil
4.8 4.1
40.9
Sinhala

every community.
National Trend
41.4
25.5
18.6
60.6
Disagree No response
November '03 February '04
Breakdown
0.9
70.6
50 60 70 80
No response
46.9
Disagree
49.4
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
62.8
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I agree with federalism if it is approved by a ma
National Trend
50
40
37.6
37.7
30.7
33.8
30
%
18.2
13.4
8.4
September '03 November '03 Febr
Ethnic Breakdown
20.8
20 20
10
0
25.7
Up-country Tamil
10.1
30.9
32.9
23.4
Muslim
3
4
44.6 25.2 8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
46.9
Tamil
4
7.6
39.4
Sinhala

it is approved by a majority of Sri Lankans.
National Trend
42.6
3.8
25.5
7.5
r '03 February '04
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
No response
thnic Breakdown
39.4
23
9
44.6
No response
69.1
Disagree
46.9
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
40 50 60 70 80
%
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think people are being adequately informed a
National Trend
70
65.2
64.9
60
50
40 %
30
20
13.2
15.4
12.6
9.2
0
September '03 November '03 Fe
Ethnic Breakdown
5.3
10.6 10
9
33.6
Up-country Tamil
6.1 4.8
26.9
5.4
0 10 20 30 40
%
34.5
Muslim
13.2
4
6.8
Tamil
9.1
14
37.2
Sinhala

dequately informed about federalism.
National Trend
49.3
Agree
37.6
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
No response
6
6.1
5.9
er '03 February '04
thnic Breakdown
33.6
51
30 40 50 60
%
55
34.5
37.2
45.2
No response
Disagree
26.9
48.6
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
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Page 38
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
SLFP – JVP A
LLIANCE
If you are aware that the SLFP and JVP sign January 2004, forming an alliance, what in impact of this new alliance on the country?
National Breakdown
35.6
22.3
5.2
Ethnic Breakdown
35.6 National
5.2
22.3
37
31 Up-country Tamil
5.2
60.4
3.5
28.1 Muslim
13.2
47.4
11.4
20.3 Tamil
0.9
2.5
37.4 Sinhala
4.9
15.2
42.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

e SLFP and JVP signed a MoU on the 20th of n alliance, what in your opinion will be the e on the country?
onal Breakdown
37
5.2
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Don't know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
.4
60.4
47.4
50 60 70 80 90
Don't know/Not sure
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
76.3
Will have a positive impact
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware that the SLFP and JVP sign January 2004, forming an alliance, what in impact of this new alliance on the peace proces
National Breakdown
31.3 38.5
7.6 22.6
Ethnic Breakdown
38.5
National
7.6
22.6
31.3
29.1
Up-country Tamil
3.6
61.
5.5
27.4
Muslim
11.5
50.4
10.6
20.3
Tamil
2.5
3.4
41
Sinhala
7.8
15.5
35.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

e SLFP and JVP signed a MoU on the 20th of n alliance, what in your opinion will be the e on the peace process?
al Breakdown
31.3
7.6
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Don't know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
38.5
.7
40 50 60 70 80
%
61.8
41
Don't know/Not sure
50.4
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
73.7
Will have a positive impact
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Page 40
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
U
NETHICAL
C
ONVERSIONS
Are you aware of the allegations against Christ conversions”?
National Breakdown
19.8
80.2
Ethnic Breakdown
19.8 National
36 Up-country Tamil
48.9
32.9
15.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
51.1 Muslim
Tamil
Sinhala

gations against Christian churches of “unethical
Breakdown
80.2
Yes
No
ic Breakdown
80.2
51.1
67.1
84.3
40 50 60 70 80 90
%
64
48.9
No
Yes
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Page 41
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please tell me do you believe these allegations?
National Breakdown
10.9
18.7
70
Ethnic Breakdown
10.9 National
18.7
9.7 Up-country Tamil
36.5
53.8
17.8 Muslim
12
7.7 Tamil
35
57.3
10.8 Sinhala
17.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

eve these allegations?
al Breakdown
70.4
I believe them
I do not believe them
Don’t know/ Not sure
hnic Breakdown
70.4
.5
53.8
57.3
71.9
50 60 70 80
Don’t know/ Not sure
I do not believe them
70.2
I believe them
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Is there a problem of “unethical conversions”?
National Breakdown
8.3
19.4
72.3
Ethnic Breakdown
8.3 National
19.4
10.3 Up-country Tamil
63 26.3
8.2 Muslim
25
5.3 Tamil
42.2
52.5
8.4 Sinhala
16.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

ethical conversions”?
l Breakdown
72.3
Yes No Don't know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
72.3
63.4
42.2
75.5
0 50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
66.7
No
Yes 52.5
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you agree that there is a problem of “uneth think something should be done about it?
National Breakdown
88.9
4.3
6.9
Ethnic Breakdown
6.9 National
4.3
15.4 Up-country Tamil
15.4
75
76.4
6.6
%
69.2
3.2
18.2 Muslim
6.8
3.1 Tamil
20.5
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

a problem of “unethical conversions”, do you e done about it?
al Breakdown
4.3
6.9
Yes
No
Don’t know/ Not sure
nic Breakdown
88.9
69.2
Don’t know/ Not sure
No
75
Yes
76.4
90.2
60 70 80 90 100
Page 40

Page 44
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Are you aware of a proposed legislation conversions”?
National Breakdown
50.7
49.3
Ethnic Breakdown
49.3 National
46.6
51.3
%
50.7
Up-country Tamil
30.6
39.8 Muslim
48.7
60
Tamil
53.5
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

proposed legislation to prevent “unethical
l Breakdown
49.3
Yes No
ic Breakdown
49.3
50.7
46.6
48.7
51.3
69.4
39.8
No 60.2
Yes
53.5
40 50 60 70 80
%
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Page 45
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of a proposed legislatio conversions”, do you approve or disapprove of
National Breakdown
11.8
14.9
73.3
Ethnic Breakdown
11.8 National
14.9
20.1 Up-country Tamil
22
57.9
9.6 Muslim
23.9
2.6 Tamil
38.5
58.9
12.2 Sinhala
12.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

proposed legislation to prevent “unethical ove or disapprove of this proposed legislation?
Breakdown
73.3
Approve
Disapprove
Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
73.3
57.9
58.9
74.9
Don't know/Not sure
66.5
Disapprove
38.5
Approve
40 50 60 70 80
%
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Page 46
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you are aware of a proposed legislatio conversions”, do you approve or disapprove of
Religious Breakdown
3.7 Christianity (Non-RC)
22.9
26.9 Christianity (RC)
42.1 31
8.7 Islam
25.6
3.7 Hinduism
31.2
10.8 Buddhism
7.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

proposed legislation to prevent “unethical ove or disapprove of this proposed legislation?
gious Breakdown
73.4
42.1
82
40 50 60 70 80 90
%
Don't know/Not sure 65.6
Disapprove
.2
Approve 65.1
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
A
TTACKS ON
C
HURCHES
Are you aware of the recent attacks on Christia
National Breakdown
64.5
Ethnic Breakdown
35.5 National
57.4
35.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
42.6 Up-country Tamil
31.3 Muslim
30.2 Tamil
Sinhala

nt attacks on Christian places of worship?
l Breakdown
35.5
Yes No
Breakdown
35.5
64.1
40 50 60 70 80 %
64.5
35.9
42.6
57.4
3
68.7
No
Yes
69.8
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Page 48
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Do you think the President has taken effective attacks?
National Breakdown
34.2
26.6
39.2
Ethnic Breakdown
39.2 National
26.6
34.2
36.3 Up-country Tamil
54.7 9
32.7 Muslim
31
36.4
13.1 Tamil
11.1
42 Sinhala
20.9
37
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%

nt has taken effective action to deal with these
al Breakdown
26.6
Yes
No
Don’t know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
2
54.7
75.8
2
50 60 70 80
Don’t know/Not sure
No
Yes
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Page 49
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Do you think the Prime Minister has taken eff these attacks?
National Breakdown
23.3
49
27.7
Ethnic Breakdown
22.9
49 National
27.7 23.3
31.7 Up-country Tamil
53. 14.9
18.1
53.3 23.9
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
39 Muslim
23.4
37.7
17.1 Tamil
Sinhala

inister has taken effective action to deal with
al Breakdown
23.3
27.7
Yes
No
Don’t know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
37.7
49
.7
53.4
64.8
53.3
40 50 60 70
Don’t know/Not sure
39
No
Yes
Page 46

Page 50
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Do you think the Inspector General of Police action to deal with these attacks?
National Breakdown
32.7
44.8
22.5
Ethnic Breakdown
33.7
44.8 National
22.5
32.7
47.5 18.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
53.1 Up-country Tamil
33.2 13.7
36.8 Muslim
12.7
50.6
14.7 Tamil
14
Sinhala

or General of Police (IGP) has taken effective attacks?
l Breakdown
32.7
.5
Yes
No
Don’t know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
44.8
50.6
71.3
47.5
0 50 60 70 80
%
53.1
6.8
Don’t know/Not sure
No
Yes
Page 47

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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
D
ISSOLUTION OF
P
ARLIAMENT
If you are aware of the dissolution of parliame 2004 and the decision to hold elections on the opinion what impact will a general election hav
National Breakdown
24 10.6
48.5
W W W
16.9
D
Ethnic Breakdown
24.9
48.5
National
10.6
16.9
24
49.4 14.6 11.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
38
Up-country Tamil
5.6
26.9
29.4
49.3
Muslim
10.8
24.7
15.2
42.2
Tamil
4.9
36.1
16.8
Sinhala

issolution of parliament on the 7th of February hold elections on the 2nd of April 2004, in your a general election have on the peace process?
reakdown
24
Will have a positive impact Will have no impact Will have a negative impact Don't know/Not sure
ic Breakdown
48.5
38
.4
36.1
49.4
40 50 60
Don't know/Not sure
49.3
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
42.2
Will have a positive impact
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Page 52
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in February
DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 304 Gampaha 251 Kalutara 130 Kandy 148 Matale 51 Nuwar Eliya 77 Galle 116 Hambantota 60 Matara 91 Anuradhapura 86 Polonnaruwa 40 Kurunegala 175 Puttlam 79 Badulla 84 Monaragala 41 Ratnapura 118 Kegalle 94 Amparai 62 Batticoloa 56 Trincomalee 46 Vavuniya 17 NATIONAL 2125
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in February 2
ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1771 Tamil 132 Muslim 133 Up-country Tamil 89 NATIONAL 2125

Annex
istribution in February 2004
TOTAL 304 251 130 148 51 77 116 60 91 86 40 175 79 84 41 118 94 62 56 46 17 2125
tribution in February 2004
TOTAL 1771 132 133 89 2125
2004
i

Page 53
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study i confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is e repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Thus conductin a clearly defined and constant sample frame during each phase o
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1600 respondents during each phase of the stud the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fie an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a n factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole f this model.
The total sample is distributed among 22 administrative distr Amparai, Batticoloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mannar distric result of the prevailing conflict situation and logistical difficultie stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district on particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statis
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a maxim DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten given GND the enumerator is advised to select a starting point using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order households.
In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed to skip a thus resulting in the interview taking place at every alternative the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ g the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PCI
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error m noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not sup same level of precision.

ence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public rocess over time it is essential that the study be conducted e study. Thus conducting the study bi-monthly with the use of ame during each phase of the study ensures this fact.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of g each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture e span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that ocess is influenced by a number of factors, however the ethnic d influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in
g 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in the uniya and Mannar districts the entire area is not covered as a n and logistical difficulties. The sample size is assigned to each population proportions. However, some districts are over ty but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the
nicity within a district only if the population proportion of that sional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit nique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri
ent of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
rk and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample within a uct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews ule) technique in order to assure the random selection of
er is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, lace at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, sehold using the ‘KISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member of eing selected to the PCI sample.
ubject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the
2004
ii

Page 54
Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social resea conducts polls on socio-economic and political iss
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Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a me majority of the public can express their opinions o Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social is a means through which public opinion can influ debate.
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independent social research organisation, which conomic and political issues.
oard of Directors of the Centre for Policy as established in September 1999, and filled a r a permanent, professional and independent a on social and political issues.
of empowerment, a means by which the silent express their opinions on issues affecting them. t surveys on key social issues, thereby providing public opinion can influence the public policy
Published by:
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