Page 1
An Opinio
~) - N V
Peace Confiden
ASON THIS WAVE
Ceasefire Agreement
Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission
Foreign involvement
Interim Administration
TenSiO in the Easten POV in Ce
Sunani and the Peace Process
 

In Poll On Peace
Ce IndeX (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS March 2005
SOCiia InCiCatOr

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CONTENTS
• INTRODUCTION
• KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELO
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX
(PCI) T
OP
-L
INE
R
ESULTS
SOLUTIONS
CONFIDENCE
CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT (CFA)
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION (SLMM)
FOREIGN INVOLVEMENT
INTERIM ADMINISTRATION
TENSIONS IN THE EASTERN PROVINCE
TSUNAMI AND THE PEACE PROCESS
• ANNEX

Index
01 RNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 07 X
(PCI) 12
12
13
(CFA) 21
MISSION (SLMM) 23
26
N 31
RN PROVINCE 34
E PROCESS 36
ch 2005

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I
NTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop
public confidence in the peace process using a set of sta
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of
economic and political developments in order to gauge p
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will prov
useful barometer of the opinions of Sri Lankan polity, and e
the public are given due importance and incorporated into t
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The survey is carried out using a structured questionnair
interviews amongst a 1803 randomly selected sample. Th
administrative districts, however, in the districts of Jaffna, V
Ampara, only the Government controlled areas were surve
the Tsunami (26th December 2004) were excluded from th
concerns. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnogra
which the sample was surveyed.
This is the eighteenth wave of the PCI study, which wa
publication presents only the top-line results of the March 2
The results of these eighteen waves offer us data for a co
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of w
developments. The results are subjected to a 3% margin of

I
NTRODUCTION
fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
ocess using a set of standardized questions, which remain
other is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
nts in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process,
one wave to another.
period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
f Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of
e and incorporated into the policy debate.
structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
mly selected sample. This survey was conducted among 22
the districts of Jaffna, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Batticoloa and
trolled areas were surveyed. In addition the areas affected by
) were excluded from the sample due to ethical and logistical
lect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in
e PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This
ne results of the March 2005 survey.
es offer us data for a comparative study on changing public
g from perceptions of war and peace to the current political
ected to a 3% margin of error.
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KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
• A Centre for National Operations was set up by President relief and rehabilitation work in Tsunami devastated areas an region in consultation with the US Geological Survey unit Mirror on 03 January 2005)
• A UN special envoy for tsunami relief operations flew to Sr throwing their full weight behind the biggest relief operat others had been a little slow to react because it did not catastrophe. (02 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 03 January 20
• The head of the United Nations Children's Fund flew to Sri not more of the tsunami catastrophe victims were children 2005)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga today appointed three ap ashes of the tsunami disaster. They are the Task Force for force to rebuild the nation chaired by Mano Tittawella an chaired by Tilak Ranaviraja. (03 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on
• The armed forces today was put in charge of the whole Ts (Daily Mirror on 05 January 2005)
• Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe visited Jaffna to tsunami disaster in Valvetitturai and Point Pedro. (05 January
• Sri Lanka today protested to Italy against the distribution sources said. The protest was made to Italian Ambassad Tuesday that the Civil Protection Department of Italy had controlled by the LTTE, the sources said. (05 January 2005)
• The Group of Seven industrialized nations has agreed to Lanka and other countries worst affected by the tsunamis today. (08 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 09 January 2005)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga today took direct contro history and directed that all aid for tsunami victims should Centre set up by her, government sources said. (08 January
• At least 300 people protested today outside an office of th inability to visit rebel held areas in the northeast, a UN off January 2005)
• Denying reports that the government had blocked UN Sec controlled areas, the Foreign Ministry said the programme had been offered stopovers in the north. (09 January 2005)-(
• The LTTE is to forward a separate project report to dono and reconstruction in tsunami devastated areas under its c said. (10 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 11 January 2005)
• The newly appointed North-East governor Tyronne Fernan the North today to visit refugee camps for tsunami victim officials visited the refugee camp at a girls school in government’s failure to provide equal or adequate relief to the relief operation. (11 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 12 Jan
• The tsunami that initially sparked hopes of a renewal o "irreparable damage" in relations between the government Thamilselvan said yesterday. He said the rift between government's barring of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan unfair distribution of international relief at the expense of th on 12 January 2005)
• The country directors of the Asian Development Bank, the Bank for International Cooperation, are due to visit th coordinated needs assessment for rebuilding the tsunami January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 12 January 2005)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga and UNP leader Ranil W agreed to work together for the relief and rehabilitation of a spokesman said. (11 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 12 Janua
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NAL DEVELOPMENTS JANUARY 2005 – MARCH 2005
was set up by President Chandrika Kumaratunga today, to coordinate nami devastated areas and monitor seismic activity in the Indian Ocean S Geological Survey unit and other agencies. (02 January 2005)-(Daily
lief operations flew to Sri Lanka yesterday saying all UN agencies were the biggest relief operation history though the world body like many react because it did not understand the horrifying magnitude of the ly Mirror on 03 January 2005)
ildren's Fund flew to Sri Lanka yesterday and disclosed that one-third if he victims were children. (03 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 04 January
today appointed three apex Task Forces to rebuild the nation from the are the Task Force for rescue and relief chaired by Tara De Mel, task d by Mano Tittawella and the Task Force for logistics, law and order
ary 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 04 January 2005) charge of the whole Tsunami distribution network. (04 January 2005)-
esinghe visited Jaffna today and inspected areas devastated by the
Point Pedro. (05 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 06 January 2005) against the distribution of aid directly to the LTTE, Foreign Ministry ade to Italian Ambassador Salvatore Zotta who told journalists on epartment of Italy had sent relief to tsunami hit areas including those s said. (05 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 06 January 2005)
nations has agreed to a moratorium on the debt repayments of Sri affected by the tsunamis in Asia, sources at the British Treasury said or on 09 January 2005)
today took direct control of the biggest relief operation in Sri Lanka's tsunami victims should be channeled through the National Operation sources said. (08 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 09 January 2005)
y outside an office of the United Nations against its chief Kofi Annan's the northeast, a UN official said. (09 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 10
ent had blocked UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's visit to the LTTE try said the programme had been worked out with UN officials, who orth. (09 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 10 January 2005) e project report to donor countries to obtain funds for rehabilitation astated areas under its control, its peace secretariat chief S. Pulidevan
on 11 January 2005) overnor Tyronne Fernando ran into serious trouble when he went to camps for tsunami victims. Reports said that when Mr. Fernando and p at a girls school in Point Pedro, protests erupted against the ual or adequate relief to victims in the North and Army interference in 05)-(Daily Mirror on 12 January 2005)
hopes of a renewal of the Sri Lankan peace process has caused etween the government and the rebels, LTTE political wing leader S. P. said the rift between the two sides had been widened by the ary General Kofi Annan from rebel-held areas in the northeast and the elief at the expense of the Tamil people. (11 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror
Development Bank, the World Bank and senior officers of the Japan on, are due to visit the North East today as part of the ongoing rebuilding the tsunami affected parts of Sri Lanka, the JBIC said. (11 uary 2005) and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe at a meeting on Wednesday lief and rehabilitation of tsunami victims and rebuilding of the country, )-(Daily Mirror on 12 January 2005)
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• Making his first public appearance after the tsunami disaste LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran said on Monday that th tsunami 1 being the destruction inflicted on the Tamil reported. (18 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 19 January 2005
• UPFA government partner the JVP today came out stron business tycoons and others, whom it sees as letharg reconstruction in the tsunami-devastated areas. (18 January
• As the country prepared for an important visit by a top-lev announced yesterday that at the request of the LTTE a flee pumps and other equipment, had been sent to tsunami-de 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 19 January 2005)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga today said there would recovery plan from the tsunami disaster would take preced (Daily Mirror on 20 January 2005)
• Vowing that the UNP would not allow anyone to use the t in Sri Lanka, the party yesterday demanded an immed Kumaratunga on her statement that no elections would be (Daily Mirror on 21 January 2005)
• Ruling out any direct LTTE involvement in the use and dis said yesterday it had no formal agreement with the LTT reconstruction funds. (26 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 27 J
• The Human Rights Commission of Sri Lanka has highlight rights due to the Emergency (Miscellaneous Provisions a February (http://www.southasianmedia.net/index_story.cfm?id=179899&c
• The Tamil Nadu police arrested a TELO cadre with Thangachchimadam shore, in Rameswaram, India. (02 Februa
• The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has urged President C 1 to probe "into the activities of foreign NGOs, their staff tsunami-hit areas, www.Tamilnet.com reporte (http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=14135)
• Delegations of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LT morning met at the Jaffna office of the Sri Lanka Monitorin including restoring normalcy in the lives of tsunami affected (02 February 2005)-(http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13
• Large number of people Tuesday morning held a demonstr Eelam Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP) located in Man Tsunami victims for political gain. (02 February 2005)- (http://
• Tamil National Alliance (TNA) on February 2 boycotted Province, Mr. Tyronne Fernando, at the Vavuniya district described as “gross discrimination by the Sri Lankan state areas affected by the disaster”. (02 February 2005)-(http://ww
• A delegation of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) told Bernard Bot, when they met him February 3 that Colombo has not worked as experience from the last six weeks cle made in the restoration of the lives of the affected people. (
• "The Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) is still dragging mechanism to take forward the reconstruction and rehabilit in the North East province," said Mr. S. P. Thamilselvan, P Eelam (LTTE) addressing a press conference following hi Norwegian Ambassador to Sri Lanka held Saturday morn sources said. (05 February 2005)-(http://www.tamilnet.com/)
• The LTTE on Saturday rejected the Government's propo conduct post-tsunami rehabilitation work in the Tamil-sp Government's proposals are impractical and not worth (http://www.hindustantimes.com)
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after the tsunami disaster and amidst continuing rumours of his death, said on Monday that the December 26 catastrophe was tsunami 2 -- inflicted on the Tamil homeland by the Sri Lanka Army, Tamilnet
irror on 19 January 2005) P today came out strongly against a government decision to appoint hom it sees as lethargic bureaucrats, to handle rehabilitation and stated areas. (18 January 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 19 January 2005) portant visit by a top-level Norwegian delegation, the President's office quest of the LTTE a fleet of pick-up trucks, tractors, generators, water been sent to tsunami-devastated areas in the North- East. (18 January
05) today said there would be no elections for the next five years, as the saster would take precedence over everything else. (19 January 2005)-
llow anyone to use the tsunami tidal waves to sweep away democracy y demanded an immediate clarification from President Chandrika t no elections would be held for the next five years. (20 January 2005)-
ement in the use and disbursement of donor funding, the government greement with the LTTE in handling post tsunami rehabilitation and 005)-(Daily Mirror on 27 January 2005) f Sri Lanka has highlighted a number of possible violations of human scellaneous Provisions and Powers) Regulations No. 1 of 2005. (01 2005)- x_story.cfm?id=179899&category=Frontend&Country=SRI%20LANKA)
a TELO cadre with explosives, who was waiting for a boat at swaram, India. (02 February 2005)- (http://www.epdpnews.com/) P) has urged President Chandrika Kumaratunga in a letter on February reign NGOs, their staff and foreign volunteers" working in Sri Lanka's amilnet.com reported today. (02 February 2005)- id=13&artid=14135) ers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and Sri Lanka Army (SLA) Wednesday the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) and discussed several issues lives of tsunami affected people and the fishing industry, sources said. lnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=14140)
orning held a demonstration in front of Vadamaradchchi office of the (EPDP) located in Manthikai against distributing relief materials to 02 February 2005)- (http://www.tamilnet.com/)
February 2 boycotted a meeting with Governor of the North East at the Vavuniya district secretariat in protest against what the TNA by the Sri Lankan state in delivering Tsunami aid to Tamil and Muslim February 2005)-(http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=14136) al Alliance (TNA) told the Foreign Minister of the Netherlands, Mr. ebruary 3 that Colombo's attempt to centralize the rehabilitation work m the last six weeks clearly shows that hardly any progress has been
of the affected people. (03 February 2005)-(http://www.tamilnet.com) (GOSL) is still dragging its feet over the establishment of a joint onstruction and rehabilitation of tsunami destroyed Tamil coastal areas Mr. S. P. Thamilselvan, Political head of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil conference following his two hour - talks with Mr. Hans Brattskar, nka held Saturday morning in LTTE Peace Secretariat in Killinochchi, ttp://www.tamilnet.com/)
he Government's proposal for a joint mechanism to receive aid and n work in the Tamil-speaking North Eastern Province (NEP). "The ractical and not worthy of our consideration. (06 February 2005)-
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• Norway's ambassador to Sri Lanka met LTTE officials on Feb the rebels and the Government about distribution of post-ts been bickering. Hans Bratskar, ambassador of Norway met L "on formulating a common structure between the Gover activities". (06 (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1965&ncid=73 190426)
• The LTTE have acquired at least one Swiss-built turbo air warfare capability that may give them the advantage of a "firs peace talks fail and in the breaking out of hostilities, a (http://www.deepikaglobal.com/)
• A consignment of seventy-six metal pots, earmarked for Tami to have been engaged in relief work in un-cleared areas of t stainless steel balls (bicycle balls) hidden inside. (07 February 20
• The Sri Lankan Government on Monday sent machinery to rebuilding in the war-torn north and east province (www.theacademic.org)
• The country’s pre-dominant Muslim party today warned o continue the present lethargic attitude towards the sev population. (07 February 2005)-(www.theacademic.org)
• Sri Lanka's Country Representatives of the World Bank, the for International Co-operation (JBIC) and the United Nat Tuesday to meet LTTE's Head of Political Wing, Mr. S.P. rebuilding process. This was revealed at a joint press briefing on February 7. (08 February 2005)-(http://www.tamilnet.com)
• E. Koushalyan, head of the LTTE’s political division for Ba ambush on the highway to Batticaloa February 7 night aroun February 2005)- (http://www.tamilnet.com/)
• Signaling concern by the world community, United Nations condemned the killing of LTTE Eastern Province political lead Lanka not to do anything that might upset the country's peace
• The LTTE has been reported to the UN Security Council for could face sanctions including a travel ban, a report said. UN report on "Children and Armed Conflict," a copy of which wa Tigers had recruited more than 4,700 children, some as you (News.yahoo.com)
• The Tamil National Force, a breakaway faction of LTTE has Koushalyan who was overseeing relief to tsunami victims. (11
• UNP MP Professor G.L.Peris says that ceasefire agreement is in Colombo on Feb 10. He cited the killing of political wing East, E. Koushlyan and the former MP of the Tamil State Party of affairs. (11 February 2005)-(http://www.lankatruth.com/news/)
• Six Parliamentarians of TNA avoided participating at Wanni due to telephone threats from Karuna Amman’s faction o (http://www.lankatruth.com/news/11_20_Feb_05/Full_story-0212_
• The killing of Kousalyan and his colleagues has "poisoned the c Yasushi Akashi, Japan's Special Peace Envoy, speaking to the p Solaiyaham, near Kokkaddicholai Saturda (http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=14237)
• The entire districts of Jaffna and Vavuniya on February 12 ca down, condemning the killings of Mr.Koushalyan, LTTE politic colleagues and Mr.Chandra Nehru, former Tamil National A district. (12 February 2005)-(http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?cat
• Government of Sri Lanka has imposed taxes at current com including water purification tablets arriving in Colombo addre (NGOs) including Tamil Rehabilitation Organization (TRO), c 2005)- (http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=14235)
• Canada's senior minister responsible for homeland security M of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness hinted strong Lanka's Tamil Tigers rebel group to a list of outlawed ter (AFP/CANADA—news.yahoo.com)
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et LTTE officials on February 5 to find common ground between ut distribution of post-tsunami aid over which the two sides have ssador of Norway met LTTE officials in Kilinochchi town for talks re between the Government and the LTTE in reconstruction (06 February 2005)- story&cid=1965&ncid=731&e=9&u=/nm/20050205/india_nm/india_
ne Swiss-built turbo aircraft to strengthen the outfit with aerial the advantage of a "first strike capability" in the event the ongoing g out of hostilities, a media report said. (07 February 2005)-
ots, earmarked for Tamil Rehabilitation Organization (TRO), said in un-cleared areas of the north & east, has contained a stock of en inside. (07 February 2005)-(http://www.army.lk/) nday sent machinery to the LTTE rebels to facilitate post-tsunami th and east provinces, officials said. (07 February 2005)-
party today warned of an uprising if the respective authorities itude towards the severely tsunami affected Eastern province heacademic.org) of the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Japan Bank ) and the United Nations (UN) are visiting to Kilinochchi on olitical Wing, Mr. S.P. Thamilselvan to discuss the post-tsunami at a joint press briefing held at the Trans Asia Hotel in Colombo tp://www.tamilnet.com)
political division for Batticaloa-Amparai district was killed in an February 7 night around 7.45, Sri Lanka military sources said. (08 m/)
munity, United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan yesterday rn Province political leader E. Koushalyan, urging the parties in Sri pset the country's peace process. (Daily Mirror on 10 February 2005) UN Security Council for recruiting thousands of child soldiers and l ban, a report said. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in his latest flict," a copy of which was seen by AFP here, said Sri Lanka's Tamil 0 children, some as young as 11, since 2001. (10 February 2005)-
way faction of LTTE has claimed responsibility for the ambush of f to tsunami victims. (11 February 2005)- (www.theacedemic.org) t ceasefire agreement is at stake. He said so at a press briefing held e killing of political wing leader of the Tigers Organization for the P of the Tamil State Party, Chandra Nehru as evidence to this state
w.lankatruth.com/news/)
participating at Wanni tigers’ Eastern leader Kaushalyan’s funeral runa Amman’s faction of tiger organization. (12 February 2005)-
_Feb_05/Full_story-0212_6.htm) gues has "poisoned the ceasefire atmosphere" in Sri Lanka, said Mr. Envoy, speaking to the press after meeting the Liberation Tigers in ddicholai Saturday. (12 February 2005)- 13&artid=14237) uniya on February 12 came to a standstill following a general shut .Koushalyan, LTTE political head for Batticaloa Amparai district, his ormer Tamil National Alliance (TNA) parliamentarian for Amparai
.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=14238) sed taxes at current commercial rates on donated relief supplies riving in Colombo addressed to Non Governmental Organizations n Organization (TRO), civil sources in Colombo said. (12 February l?catid=13&artid=14235) for homeland security Minister Anne McLellan, who is also Minister paredness hinted strongly that she was not excluding adding Sri o a list of outlawed terrorist organizations. (14 February 2005)-
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Convoy of vehicles joined the Jaffna district transport secto discrimination shown by the Government in providing relief t recent killings of LTTE Batticaloa Amparai district politic parliamentarians Mr. A. Chandra Nehru, sources i (http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=14250)
• "The violence unleashed against senior LTTE cadres and ot controlled territory situated between two Army Camps, and i presence, has raised grave questions in regard to the contin National Alliance delegation led by its parliamentary group Akashi, the special envoy of the Japanese Government, when t by the TNA in Colombo said.(14 February 2005)-(http://www.tam
• The LTTE has told peace broker Norway the governmen groups allegedly behind the assassination of a senior Tamil renegades working with the military were responsible for the and five others in the government-controlled area of Batticalo (news.bbc.co.uk)
• In a significant attempt to reach out to the Muslims, who districts of Sri Lanka, the LTTE's political commissar, S.P. Tha society in Kokkadicholai on Feb 15, and assured them that February 2005)-(http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/)
• The fragile cease-fire under strain after weekend grenade attac lobbed grenade at Tamil Tiger office late Saturday, killing 1, a top insurgent leader gunned down with 5 others. (16 February
• A member of the Peoples Liberation Organization of Tamil unidentified group of pistol men, believed to be from the LTT of IRATPERIYAKULAM, BOO-OYA, about 8 k.m. South of Va while he was traveling in a canter truck. (17 February 2005)-(ww
• LTTE said a United Nations report saying that the guerrilla m children since 2001 was false. (18 February 2005)-(AFP through n
• UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, in his report to the Securi abuse, which includes, recruiting children as soldiers, abducting to rape and other sexual violence, the Asian Tribune reported
• The political office of the LTTE was attacked by group of pe 2005)-(www.tamilnet.com)
• Sri Lanka’s Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar has offi objections with the United Nations over Secretary Gene assassinations on February 7 of E. Kousalyan, head of LTT district, and his team in a Sri Lanka government-controlled are said. (18 February 2005)- (http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?cat
• The Sri Lankan government has decided to provide loans o houses in the December 26 tsun (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/February20145219UN.html)
• Minister of Buddha Sasana, Law and Order and Deputy Minis today admitted that there have been lapses in the distribution February 2005)-(http://www.colombopage.com/archive/February211
• Ex-US Presidents Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush have w not flow into the country if it fails to manage the (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/February21130507JV.html)
• Former United States President Bill Clinton says he believes are working together and their efforts will help to resolve (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/February21121925JV.html)
• The LTTE today accused the Sri Lankan Gsovernment of car the ceasefire and peace would fall apart if this covert war a leader S.P. Thamilchelvan made this statement to the media Norwegian peace envoy Erik Solheim in Ki (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/February23121350JV.html)
• Government, issuing a special statement to mark the third ann is ready for negotiations with the LTTE on the establishment lasting peace to the country. (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/February23121914JV.html)
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district transport sector protest march Monday condemning the ent in providing relief to tsunami victims in coastal areas and the Amparai district political head Mr.Kousalyan and former TNA a Nehru, sources in Jaffna said. (14 February 2005)- 13&artid=14250) ior LTTE cadres and others on Monday the 7th in government two Army Camps, and in an area which has a strong armed forces in regard to the continued stability of the ceasefire," the Tamil its parliamentary group leader Mr Sampanthan told Mr Yasushi ese Government, when they met him Friday, a press release issued uary 2005)-(http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=14232)
orway the government should immediately disarm paramilitary tion of a senior Tamil leader, Tamilnet.com said and added that were responsible for the February 7 assassination of E. Koushalyan ntrolled area of Batticaloa. (15 February 2005)-(AFP/news.yahoo.com)-
t to the Muslims, who are an important segment in the eastern itical commissar, S.P. Thamilselvan, met top leaders of Muslim civil and assured them that the LTTE stood for their rights too. (15 es.com/news/) r weekend grenade attack on guerrilla office; unidentified assailants late Saturday, killing 1, and wounding 2. Came barley 4 days after th 5 others. (16 February 2005)-(www.theacademic.org) n Organization of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) escaped death when an ved to be from the LTTE, shot and injured him in the general area about 8 k.m. South of Vavuniya on Thursday (17) around 8.45 p.m. k. (17 February 2005)-(www.army.lk) aying that the guerrilla movement had recruited more than 4,700 ruary 2005)-(AFP through news.yahoo.com)
his report to the Security Council, lambasted the LTTE over child ren as soldiers, abducting, maiming, or killing them, subjecting them
Asian Tribune reported. (18 February 2005)-( www.bbc.co.uk) attacked by group of persons Friday around 11 a.m. (18 February
an Kadirgamar has officially registered his government’s strong s over Secretary General Kofi Annan’s condemnation of the Kousalyan, head of LTTE's Political Wing in Batticaloa-Amparai vernment-controlled area of the Eastern province, political sources tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=14284) ided to provide loans of Rs. 250,000 to all those who lost their ber 26 tsunamis. (20 February 2005)- bruary20145219UN.html) Order and Deputy Minister of Defense Ratnasiri Wickremanayake lapses in the distribution of relief to displaced tsunami victims. (20 e.com/archive/February21130507JV.html) orge H.W. Bush have warned Sri Lanka that international aid will fails to manage the funds properly. (21 February 2005)- bruary21130507JV.html) Clinton says he believes the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE rts will help to resolve the ethnic conflict. (21 February 2005)- bruary21121925JV.html) kan Gsovernment of carrying out a "covert war" and warned that part if this covert war against the LTTE continues. LTTE political statement to the media soon after concluding talks with visiting k Solheim in Kilinochchi. (22 February 2005)-
bruary23121350JV.html) nt to mark the third anniversary of the ceasefire agreement, said it TE on the establishment of an interim authority in order to bring the country. (23 February 2005)- bruary23121914JV.html)
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• The United Nations Security Council yesterday said it has star per a proposal by UN Secretary General K (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/February24115347JV.html)
• Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) leader Rauff Hakeem insi from the North by the ethnic conflict should be given respe victims that remain in refugee ca http://www.colombopage.com/archive/February27131343UN.html)
• The LTTE continues to commit serious human rights abu arbitrary arrests, torture, harassment, abduction, disappeara human rights report said. (01 March 2005)- (http://www.colombo
• Three female officials of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil E District Women Political Wing Head, Ms. Kuveni, have been s to a paramilitary group opened fire at them (http://www.ltteps.org/?view=643&folder=2)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga yesterday appointed a spec on the recent attacks on LTTE cadres in the Batticaloa (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/March292144JV.html)
• The LTTE says the continued shooting of senior LTTE politica Sri Lankan peace process. (02 March 2005)-(http://www.colombo
• The World Bank is to send six billion rupees for the rebuildin the region is "an officially recognized LTTE-controlled area, a (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/March7120414JV.html)
• JVP demanded that the World Bank remove its Country Rep as he "overstepped his duties." Issuing a hard-hitting stat representative “overstepped his duties” by making a statem billion of post-tsunami aid for LTTE-held areas would be disbu with the LTTE. (07 March 2005)-(http://www.jvpsrilanka.com/pb_
• LTTE cadres stormed a village in Welikanda and killed six civil one Tamil on Saturday night. (07 March 2005)-(http://www.colom
• The feud between the LTTE supremo, Velupillai Prabhakar Karuna, seems to be intensifying in eastern Sri Lanka. On S down and four wounded in separate incidents. (08 March 2005
• The World Bank says that it has no intention of giving fund issued on Monday the WB said that it does not "and have LTTE, and there is no intention to change (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sinhala/news/)
• Mr. Peter Harold, representative of the World Bank in a “unofficial state” in his statement to Sunday Times. (08 March
• The government has announced a plan to rebuild tsunami-affec in the south and a 200m buffer zone in the north and east. (08
• "SLMM perceives the recent killings in the eastern parts of the the Peace Process" said the Nordic truce monitors in a statem currently making inquires into all the (http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=14418)
• Norwegian Peace Envoy, Mr. Erik Solheim, told the Libera Negotiator, Mr. Anton Balasingham, whom he met today mechanism for aid distribution could be agreed “soon” government. (09 March 2005)-(http://www.tamileelamnews.com/n
• A high level delegation of Liberation Tigers will begin an offic Friday. (09 March 2005)-(www.tamilnet.com)
• The Sri Lankan Government has strongly protested to Norwe to the United States Government about an airstrip and air violations of the Ceasefire Agreem (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/March9120336JV.html)
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005

Page Index
6
yesterday said it has started to monitor the use of child soldiers as Secretary General Kofi Annan. (23 February 2005)-
bruary24115347JV.html) eader Rauff Hakeem insists that Muslim families who were evicted t should be given respect and compensation should be paid to all in refugee camps. (27 February 2005)-( bruary27131343UN.html) rious human rights abuses, such as politically motivated killings, t, abduction, disappearances, extortion and detention, the latest 005)- (http://www.colombopage.com/archive/March1123849JV.html) tion Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) including Batticaloa-Amparai , Ms. Kuveni, have been seriously wounded when persons belonging ed fire at them on 28.02.2005. (02 March 2005)- =2) sterday appointed a special commission to inquire into and report dres in the Batticaloa and Ampara districts. (02 March 2005)- arch292144JV.html) g of senior LTTE political leaders is casting a dark shadow over the 2005)-(http://www.colombopage.com/archive/March2120414JV.html)
rupees for the rebuilding of houses in LTTE-held territory, saying LTTE-controlled area, a kind of unofficial state." (06 March 2005)- arch7120414JV.html) remove its Country Representative, Peter Harrold, from Sri Lanka uing a hard-hitting statement, the party said the World Bank ies” by making a statement to a newspaper indicating that Rs. 6 eld areas would be disbursed through state agencies in consultation ://www.jvpsrilanka.com/pb_release/pb_release_06032005.htm) likanda and killed six civilians including a Sinhalese, four Muslims and ch 2005)-(http://www.colombopage.com/archive/March7115827JV.html)
o, Velupillai Prabhakaran, and the breakaway group led by Col eastern Sri Lanka. On Saturday alone, eight people were gunned incidents. (08 March 2005)-(http://www.hindustantimes.com)
intention of giving funds directly to Tamil Tigers. In a statement t it does not "and have not disbursed any funding directly to the tention to change this policy". (08 March 2005)-
the World Bank in a statement says he never used the words unday Times. (08 March 2005)-(http://www.lankatruth.com) n to rebuild tsunami-affected houses, proposing a 100m buffer zone in the north and east. (08 March 2005)-(http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/)
the eastern parts of the country as a direct threat to the CFA and ruce monitors in a statement issued Tuesday. "SLMM monitors are into all the incidents. (09 March 2005)- 13&artid=14418) olheim, told the Liberation Tigers’ Political Strategist and Chief , whom he met today that Oslo was optimistic that a joint uld be agreed “soon” between the LTTE and the Sri Lankan
ww.tamileelamnews.com/news/publish/tns_4046.shtml) Tigers will begin an official visit to several European capitals from t.com) ngly protested to Norwegian Prime Minister K. Bondevik as well as bout an airstrip and aircraft in LTTE-held Iranamadu, which are Ceasefire Agreement. (09 March 2005)- arch9120336JV.html)
05

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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CO
MARCH 2005 TO 2ND APRI 2
♦ Regarding the ‘no war, no peace’ situation that is cu
majority (72.4%) states that the continuation of th Government and the LTTE should go for a permane This opinion is seen across all the ethnic groups (Sinhal 85.8%, and Up-Country Tamil - 87.1%). Only 12.6% be is better than pursuing a final solution. A marginal 5 situation is bad and that the Government and the L solution through war. (Ref. Page 12)
♦ A majority (53.4%) believes that the Government is c
talks, which is an increase since February 2004 (43.5%). Muslim (54.8%) communities believe that the Govern through talks. However, a majority of the Tamil (54. that the Government is committed to find peace throug
♦ When asked whether they think the Government
through talks, a majority (56.6%) agrees with this state from a majority of the Sinhala (57.2%), Tamil (55.6%), (Ref. Page 14)
♦ A majority (50.1%) disagrees with the statement that
peace through talks. This is a significant increase since N ethnic perspective, a majority of the Sinhala (59.8%) c the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks. H (82.5%), Muslim (50.4%) and Up-country Tamil (65.2 LTTE is committed to find peace through talks. (Ref. Pa
♦ There seem to be mixed opinions with regard to the
through talks. While 37.1% agree that the LTTE is capa 31.3% disagree. 31.6% don’t know or are unsure. The majority of Tamil (79.8%), Muslim (52%) and Up-cou believe that the LTTE is fully capable of finding pe community however, has a divided opinion. (Agree - know/Not sure - 35.4%) (Ref. Page 16)
♦ A majority of 49% continues to believe that the Gover Commitment to Peace, a significant increase since Feb Lankans also believe that the Government goes in for There is a significant increase since February 2004 Pressure is the reason that the Government goes in March 2005 - 26.4%). A majority of the Sinhala (49.7% communities believe that the Government goes in for Peace. However, a majority of the Tamil (64.9%) com

ndex
E OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
16TH 2005 TO 2ND APRIL 2005
ace’ situation that is currently prevailing in Sri Lanka, a the continuation of this situation is bad and that the hould go for a permanent solution through negotiations. the ethnic groups (Sinhala - 69.3%, Tamil - 81.6%, Muslim - - 87.1%). Only 12.6% believe continuation of this situation l solution. A marginal 5.6% believe continuation of this Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent e 12)
at the Government is committed to find peace through e February 2004 (43.5%). A majority of Sinhala (57.7%) and believe that the Government is committed to find peace jority of the Tamil (54.4%) community does not believe itted to find peace through talks. (Ref. Page 13)
hink the Government is fully capable of finding peace %) agrees with this statement. This opinion stems mainly (57.2%), Tamil (55.6%), and Muslim (61.1%) communities.
with the statement that the LTTE is committed to find ignificant increase since November 2003 (37.8%). From an of the Sinhala (59.8%) community does not believe that d peace through talks. However, a majority of the Tamil Up-country Tamil (65.2%) communities believe that the ce through talks. (Ref. Page 15)
ions with regard to the LTTE’s capability of finding peace ee that the LTTE is capable of finding peace through talks, now or are unsure. The ethnic perspective shows that a uslim (52%) and Up-country Tamil (66.2%) communities ly capable of finding peace through talks. The Sinhala ivided opinion. (Agree - 28.6%, Disagree - 35.9%, Don’t
age 16)
o believe that the Government goes in for talks due to its ificant increase since February 2004 (38.2%). 31.9% of Sri Government goes in for talks due to Economic Hardship. e since February 2004 in the belief that International he Government goes in for talks (February 2004 - 9%, rity of the Sinhala (49.7%) and Up-country Tamil (68.6%) Government goes in for talks due to its Commitment to f the Tamil (64.9%) community believes it is International
05
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Pressure, while a majority of the Muslim (62.4%) co Hardship. (Ref. Page 17)
♦ 35.8% believe that the LTTE goes in for talks due t
Cannot be Won, while 31.3% believe it is to Fool International Pressure is the reason LTTE goes in for ta from 15.4% in February 2004. (Ref. Page 18)
♦ There seem to be mixed opinions with regard to how c
approaching a final settlement to the ethnic conflic situation remains the same, 32.5% believe that it perspective, a majority of the Muslim community (52. The Sinhala (Very close - 30.1%, Remains the same - 3 Remains the same - 32.2%) and Up-country Tamil (Very - 38%) communities however, have a divided opinion. (R
♦ With regard to participation in negotiations, a majori range of involvement in negotiations, while 19.5% belie the LTTE should be involved. From an ethnic perspec divided opinion (Support widest political participation – - 21%). A majority of the Tamil (35.5%) community sup and the International third party involvement, while a Up-country Tamil (51.4%) communities believe the Muslim parties and a International third party should significant that the Muslim community emphasises t Muslim political parties in the negotiations with or wit (Ref. Page 20)
♦ Of those who are aware about the Ceasefire Agreemen
the Government and the LTTE to end violence, 65 benefited from the CFA. This opinion is seen across 61.9%, Tamil - 73.8%, Muslim - 84.4% and Up-country believe that they have not benefited. (Ref. Page 21)
♦ A majority (61.2%) doesn’t know or are unsure whethe
order to strengthen and expand its scope, while 25.5% amended. From an ethnic perspective there is a divid 44.2%, Don’t know/Not sure - 45.7%), Muslim (Agre 45.4%), and Up-country Tamil (Agree - 43.4%, D communities. (Ref. Page 22)
♦ Of those who are aware of the involvement of for
ceasefire, 36.4% believe such a monitoring mission is e This opinion stems mainly from a majority of the Tamil country Tamil (75.6%) communities. A majority of Sin that it will have a positive impact. (Ref. Page 23)

ndex
the Muslim (62.4%) community believes it is Economic
goes in for talks due to the Realization that this War % believe it is to Fool the People. 28.3% believe that ason LTTE goes in for talks, which is a significant increase (Ref. Page 18)
ons with regard to how close the country is, at present, to t to the ethnic conflict. While 33.6% believe that the 32.5% believe that it is very close. From an ethnic Muslim community (52.4%) believes that it is very close. %, Remains the same - 34.4%), Tamil (Very close - 33.3%, Up-country Tamil (Very close - 42.3%, Remains the same have a divided opinion. (Ref. Page 19)
in negotiations, a majority (30.5%) believes in the widest ations, while 19.5% believe that only the Government and From an ethnic perspective, the Sinhala community has a st political participation – 28%, The Govt & the LTTE only il (35.5%) community supports the Government, the LTTE rty involvement, while a majority of Muslim (59.1%) and mmunities believe the Govt, Opposition, LTTE, Tamil, ional third party should be involved in negotiations. It is ommunity emphasises the importance of involving the negotiations with or without an international third party.
t the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) that was signed between TE to end violence, 65% believe that Sri Lankans have s opinion is seen across all the ethnic groups (Sinhala - - 84.4% and Up-country Tamil -73.6%). However, 20.4% efited. (Ref. Page 21)
ow or are unsure whether the CFA should be amended in d its scope, while 25.5% believe that the CFA needs to be spective there is a divided opinion in the Tamil (Agree - - 45.7%), Muslim (Agree - 38%, Don’t know/Not sure - mil (Agree - 43.4%, Don’t know/Not sure - 45.3%)
the involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the a monitoring mission is essential for the CFA to succeed. a majority of the Tamil (86.5%), Muslim (69.1%) and Up- nities. A majority of Sinhala (34.9%) community believes ct. (Ref. Page 23)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ 43.3% of Sri Lankans believe Sri Lanka Monitoring
monitoring of the CFA. This opinion stems mainly from Looking at the other ethnic communities, a majority o and Up-country Tamil (82.6%) communities believe monitoring of the CFA. (Ref. Page 24)
♦ 40.5% believe that the SLMM is ineffective in its mon
stems mainly from the Sinhala (46.6%) community. (69.2%), Muslim (49.1%), and Up-country Tamil (83% SLMM is effective in monitoring the CFA. (Ref. Page 25)
♦ 65.3% believe having an International third party, as fa
positive impact in solving the ethnic conflict. From an Tamil (79.3%), Muslim (61.9%) and Up-country Tamil ( is essential, while a majority of Sinhala (40%) commu third party will have a positive impact in solving the eth 26)
♦ 38.7% believe that India is the most suitable count
facilitator in the peace process. 28% prefer Norway, wh From an ethnic perspective, a majority of Tami communities prefer Norway. 43.8% of Sinhala commu peace process. The Up-country Tamil community has (India - 49%, Norway - 45.1%). (Ref. Page 27)
♦ With regard to the level of satisfaction on the Norweg that they are satisfied. 28.3% state that they are not s don’t know or are unsure. From an ethnic perspective and Muslim (77.2%) communities are satisfied with the Sinhala community has a divided opinion in this regard all - 34.7%, Don’t know/Not sure -28.5%). (Ref. Page 28
♦ When asked if they approve or disapprove of Norway process, Sri Lankans have mixed opinions in this regar 35.3% disapprove. However, on the ethnic grounds Muslim (71.1%) and Up-country Tamil (83.6%) co continuing to facilitate the peace process. 43.2% of the Norway’s role as facilitator. (Ref. Page 29)
♦ 63% of Sri Lankans believe that India’s involvement in essential or will have a positive impact. On the con involvement is not essential. Perspectives of the et majority of the Tamil (49.7%), Muslim (69.6%) communities believe that India’s involvement is essenti community (37.5%) believes that India’s involvement w peace process. (Ref. Page 30)

ndex
Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) is partial in its pinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (50.6%). ommunities, a majority of Tamil (74.4%), Muslim (49.5%), %) communities believe the SLMM is impartial in its
ge 24)
is ineffective in its monitoring of the CFA. This opinion ala (46.6%) community. However, a majority of Tamil Up-country Tamil (83%) communities believe that the g the CFA. (Ref. Page 25)
ational third party, as facilitator is essential or will have a ethnic conflict. From an ethnic perspective, a majority of and Up-country Tamil (70%) communities believe that it of Sinhala (40%) community believe that an International impact in solving the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka. (Ref. Page
he most suitable country that should play the role of . 28% prefer Norway, while 25.8% favor USA as facilitator. , a majority of Tamil (72.6%) and Muslim (52.5%) 43.8% of Sinhala community prefers India in facilitating the ry Tamil community has a divided opinion in this regard
(Ref. Page 27)
tisfaction on the Norwegian role as facilitator, 46.7% state state that they are not satisfied at all. A noteworthy 25% om an ethnic perspective, a majority of the Tamil (86.6%) ies are satisfied with the Norwegian role as facilitator. The d opinion in this regard (Satisfied - 36.9%, Not satisfied at re -28.5%). (Ref. Page 28)
r disapprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace ed opinions in this regard. While 36.4% approve, another on the ethnic grounds a majority of the Tamil (90.3%), ntry Tamil (83.6%) communities approve of Norway ce process. 43.2% of the Sinhala community disapproves of ef. Page 29)
at India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan Peace Process is ive impact. On the contrary, 13.9% believe that India’s Perspectives of the ethnic communities reveal that a 7%), Muslim (69.6%) and Up-country Tamil (65.3%) ’s involvement is essential, while a majority of the Sinhala hat India’s involvement will have a positive impact on the
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ 58.3% do not agree with the setting up of an Interim
opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala community (68 and Up-country Tamil (50.7%) communities agree w Authority in the North East. The Muslim (Yes -40.2% divided opinion in this regard. (Ref. Page 31)
♦ Of those who agree with the setting up of an Interim Interim Authority should be set up as part of a final set a majority of the Sinhala (59.9%) and Muslim (68 argument. 37.7% believe that an Interim Authority settlement. This opinion stems mainly from the Tam (60%) communities. (Ref. Page 32)
♦ 44.7% believe that the LTTE, other political parties a
and Muslim communities should be included in the opinion stems mainly from the Sinhala (54.3%) and Mus Sri Lankans believe that only the LTTE should b Administration. This opinion stems from the Tamil (51.5%) communities. (Ref. Page 33)
♦ Of those who are aware of the killings in the East
perpetrators are the LTTE and Karuna faction. From an Tamil (48%), Muslim (40%) and Up-country Tamil (59 are not sure. The Sinhala community has a divided op 8%, LTTE and Karuna faction - 27.3%, and Don’t kno (17.8%) community believes that Security Forces are Muslim community has a divided opinion in this regard Karuna faction - 14.9%). (Ref. Page 34)
♦ A majority of 73.4% states that these recent killings w peace process. This opinion is seen across all the ethni 83.8%, Muslim - 88.5%, and Up-country Tamil - 86.2%). positive impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 35)
♦ When asked if Tsunami has increased or decreased t that it has decreased the likelihood of war, while 4.8 likelihood of war. 23.8% state that the Tsunami has no The opinion that the likelihood of war has decrease across all the ethnic groups (Sinhala - 50.4%, Tamil - 72 country Tamil -73.2%). (Ref. Page 36)
♦ 35.7% believe that the likelihood of war has decreased
people so badly. This stems mainly from a majority of t and Up-country Tamil (78.8%) communities. Howev divided opinion in this regard. (Both the Govt & LTTE - 38.2%, Because the LTTE is heavily affected by the Ts 37)

ndex
setting up of an Interim Authority in the North East. This e Sinhala community (68%). A majority of Tamil (80.8%) ) communities agree with the setting up of an Interim The Muslim (Yes -40.2%, No - 44.9%) community has a (Ref. Page 31)
setting up of an Interim Authority, 45.5% believe that an t up as part of a final settlement. This opinion stems from 59.9%) and Muslim (68.6%) communities support this an Interim Authority should be set up before a final s mainly from the Tamil (60.3%) and Up-country Tamil 32)
other political parties and representatives of the Sinhala uld be included in the North East Administration. This Sinhala (54.3%) and Muslim (100%) communities. 21.6% of ly the LTTE should be included in the North East stems from the Tamil (42.2%) and Up- country Tamil e 33)
the killings in the Eastern Province, 22.6% believe the Karuna faction. From an ethnic perspective, a majority of d Up-country Tamil (59.1%) communities don’t know or munity has a divided opinion in this regard (LTTE only - - 27.3%, and Don’t know/Not sure - 28.1%). The Tamil hat Security Forces are the perpetrators. However, the d opinion in this regard (LTTE only - 16.7%, the LTTE and age 34)
at these recent killings will have a negative impact on the seen across all the ethnic groups (Sinhala - 69.6%, Tamil - -country Tamil - 86.2%). Only 5.8% state that it will have a rocess. (Ref. Page 35)
creased or decreased the likelihood of war, 54.2% state lihood of war, while 4.8% state that it has increased the that the Tsunami has no impact on the likelihood of war. d of war has decreased as a result of Tsunami is seen inhala - 50.4%, Tamil - 72.2%, and Muslim - 59.2% and Up- ge 36)
od of war has decreased because the Tsunami affected the ainly from a majority of the Tamil (86.5%), Muslim (61.6%) ) communities. However the Sinhala community has a (Both the Govt & LTTE are affected badly by the Tsunami eavily affected by the Tsunami disaster - 36.9%). (Ref. Page
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Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ Overall 65.6% approve of Norway’s facilitation o
Government and the LTTE on a joint mechanism to Tsunami relief. This opinion is seen across all the ethni 93.3%, Muslim - 72.9%, and Up-country Tamil - 100%) Lankans disapprove of this. (Ref. Page 38)
For further information please
Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Ranas
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternativ
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@dia Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www

ndex
Norway’s facilitation of an agreement between the n a joint mechanism to effectively distribute and utilize seen across all the ethnic groups (Sinhala - 50.9%, Tamil - p-country Tamil - 100%) communities.) Only 25.9% of Sri f. Page 38)
er information please contact:
p Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator ntre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 70475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
05
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Page 14
National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Ethnic Breakdown
13.8
Peace Confidence Index (P May 2001 – March 2005
Solutions
At the moment Sri Lanka is experiencing a ‘no war, no peac continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final s continuation of this situation is bad and, therefore the Gove permanent solution, either through negotiations or war. Ple best describes your opinion.
National Breakdown
5.6
9.4
12.6
72.4
9.4 5.6
72.4 12.6
1.4 1.4
10
3.1
Muslim
2.4
8.7
9.5
Tamil
2.1
6.8
10.3
Sinhala
6.6
69.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

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Confidence Index (PCI) ay 2001 – March 2005
ing a ‘no war, no peace’ situation. Some people say that the than pursuing a final solution. Others argue that a d, therefore the Government and the LTTE should go for a
gotiations or war. Please tell me which of the arguments
ational Breakdown
12.6
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation of this situations bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through war
No response/ Refuse to answer
Ethnic Breakdown
72.4
69.3
0 60 70 80 90 100 %
87.1
85.8
81.6
No response/ Refuse to answer
Continuation of this situations bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through war
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution

Page 15
%
Ethnic Breakdown
22.9
Up-country Tamil
41.4
26.4
19.9
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
35.7
12.7
Muslim
22.3
32.5
19.2
Tamil
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Confidence
I think the Government is committed to find peace through
National Trend
80
24.5
May '01 September
'01
69.8 70.2 70
60
50.2
53
58
61.8
63.7
59.4
56.7
50.1
43.8
44
53
50
40
23.8
22.5
31.4
30
11.9
9.8
9.1
22.5
20
15.1
18.6
20.9
19.1
0
12
10
January
May '02 September
January
May '0 '02
'02
'03

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to find peace through talks.
ational Trend
.7
59.4
56.7
53.9
53.4 50.1
48
48.4 44
43.5
27.1
18.6
Agree
30.3
Disagree
20.9
19.1
22.5 21.6
24
23
er January
May '03 September
February '03
'03
'04
ic Breakdown
41.4
57.7
40 50 60 70
%
35.7
32.5
54.4 54.8
Don't know/Not sure Disagree Agree

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National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the Government is fully capable of finding peace thro
National Breakdown
19.9
23.5
Ethnic Breakdown
23.5 19.9
5
25.1
0 10 20 30 40 50
5
17.6
24.3
37.1
38.6
11.9 Muslim
27
18 Tamil
26.4
Sinhala

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e of finding peace through talks.
nal Breakdown
56.6
Agree Disagree Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
56.6
37.1
38.6
57.2
40 50 60 70
Don't know/Not sure Disagree Agree 61.1
55.6

Page 17
%
Ethnic Breakdown
8
20.3
Up-country Tamil
14.5
32.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
65.2
18.1
Muslim
31.5
50.4
13.7
Tamil
3.8
Sinhala
59.8
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.
National Trend 80
70
63.5
68.5
60
50.6
53.2
50
40
42.7
39.5
45.7
38.2
39.8
38.9
45.7
44.9
32.9
30
29
9.8
0
May '01 September
'01
25.7
20
15.8 17.3
22.2
27.3
25.7
27.5
28.3 29.3
12.9
19.7
10
January
May '02 September
January
May '03 '02
'02
'03

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peace through talks.
tional Trend
29
29.3
19.7
47.2
50.3 50.1
38.9
40.2
37.8
r January
'03
45.7
44.9 39.8
Agree
25.7
Disagree
20.5
18.2
Breakdown
82.5
22.5 21.4
21.1
May '03 September
February '03
'04
65.2
50.4
59.8
0 60 70 80 90
Don't know/Not sure Disagree Agree

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Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the LTTE is fully capable of finding peace through tal
National Breakdown
31.6
31.3
Ethnic Breakdown
20.6
13.2
66
18.1
Muslim
29.9
52
16.4
Tamil
3.8
35.4
Sinhala
35.9
28.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7

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ing peace through talks.
nal Breakdown
37.1
Agree Disagree Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
66.2
79.8
.9
Don't know/Not sure Disagree
52
Agree
4
0 50 60 70 80 90
%

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Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think the Government goes in for talks ? [Multi
National Trend
60
50
48.8
45.3
39
42.1
June '01 November
'01
44.6
38.3 38.3 38
36.
37.5
41.7
40
35.8
39.5
33.4
27
35.5
%
30
28.9
33.2
28.9
32.4
32.5
29.9
28.6
27.2
29
29.6
24.5 24.1
24.1 23.8 20
19.7
18.6
18
19.9
19.8
17.2
20.1
24.1
24.6
17.6 14.5
16.2
15.5
9.7
12.2
12.4
10 10.3
14.1
12.9
13.1
10
7.1
8.4
11.9
8
10.6
8.8
7.1
0
9.5
7.4
4.5
4.2
3.5 4.3
3.2
3.9
10.3
10.9 1 6.6
5.2
3
March '02 July '02 November
March '03 '02
Ethnic Breakdown
2.4
19.3
29.1
41.7 22.5
19.9 11.7 Muslim
48.7
49.9
7.6
9.9
24.4 19
49.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
62.4 48.4
11.1
27.1 Tamil
48.2
64
27.7
49.9 36.3
Sinhala

Page 17
es in for talks ? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
1
26.4
Commitment to peace
Economic hardship
International pressure
Realisation that this war cannot be won
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
nic Breakdown
49.7
49
38.3 38.3 38
36.8
40.2
34.6
40.8
38.2
29.9
28.6
29
21.3
31.9
0.1
24.1
24.6
20.7
29.2 28.1
26.4
13.1
18.2
20.3
12.1
1
27.2
23.8
22.4 22.8
28.5
19.5
15.9 14.1
12.9 16.6 0.3
10.3
10.9 11
11.2
10.3 10.6
9
8.6
3.9
6.6
5.2
3.7 4.6
2.9 2.1
2.8
ember '02
March '03 July '03 November
March '05 '03
41.7
48.2
68.6
Lack of manpower
To fool the people 48.7
49.9
62.4
Realisation that this war 48.4
cannot be won
International pressure
49.9
64.9
Economic hardship
.3
Commitment to peace
0 50 60 70 80

Page 20
%
Ethnic Breakdown
2.2
4.2
Up-country Tamil
18
20.4
37.5
6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
45.4 21.4
36.8 22.7
41.9 16.7
Muslim
45.5
58
51.6 32
9.9 2.6
Tamil
20.4
16.3
55.1 31.2
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Why do you think the LTTE goes in for talks ? [Multiple Ans
National Trend
50
44.9
40
34.6
31.3
31.5
30.8
30.8
30
29.1
27.3
27.9
25.1
27.4
27.7 20.5
16.7
16.1
16.5 15.5
13.2
June '01 November
'01
28.7
28.5
22.4
18.3
13.8
24.7
22.5
25.6
25
2
20
18.7
15.2 12.3
14.6 15.4 14.9
24.5
15.9 19.1
16.9
20.4
18.6
19
23.4
18.1
18.2 23.9 14.6
20
16.1
23.2
18.5 16.7
15.7 14.5 14.6 8.9
12.8
11 10.3
0
14.9
8.5
6.6
13.9
12.8 14.4
12.4
13.1
13.9
12.6
1
10
12.5
March '02 July '02 November
March '03 '02

Page 18
r talks ? [Multiple Answers]
National Trend
16.1
16.5
13.2
Commitment to peace
37.3
Economic hardship
29.1
International pressure
Realisation that this war cannot be won
To fool the people
Lack of manpower
nic Breakdown
80.8
35.3
34
35.8
30.8
29.4
25.6
25
24.3
21.9
16.1
28.7
28.5
32.5
31.3
26.6
27.9
9.1
28.3
20.5
18.5
23.2
20
22.1
17.9
20.1
18.4
15.4
20.3
15.7
12.2
11.6 12.8
20
3.9
vember
'02
16.7
19.2
15.3 14.5 14.6
12.9
12.4
18.2
11 12.6
11.9
10.4 12.2 10.2
9.4
March '03 July '03 November
March '05 '03
45.4
58
Lack of manpower
82.2
1.9
To fool the people
45.5
51.6
Realisation that this war cannot be won
International pressure
55.1
Economic hardship
Commitment to peace
50 60 70 80 90

Page 21
National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Compared to the situation of the peace process a year ago, at present, in approaching a final settlement to the ethnic c
National Breakdown
14.1
32.5
19.8
33.6
Ethnic Breakdown
14.1
19.8
33.6 32.5
7
12.7
38
42.3
Muslim
6.3
16.7
24.6
Tamil
16.1
18.3
32.2
33.3
14.7 Sinhala
20.9
34.4 30.1
0 10 20 30 40 50

Page 19
e process a year ago, how close do you think the country is, ement to the ethnic conflict ?
Breakdown
32.5
Very close Remains the same Not close at all Don't know/Not sure
Breakdown
33.6 32.5
34.4 0.1
40 50 60
Don't know/Not 38
sure 42.3
Not close at all
Remains the same 52.4
Very close
32.2
33.3

Page 22
%
Ethnic Breakdown
0
4.3
Up-country Tamil
4.3 4.3
5.7
8.6
21.4
20.8
0 10 20 30 40 50
51.4
0
3.9
Muslim
0
0.8 0.8
3.1
32.3
9.3
Tamil
0
2.9
8.7
19.8
2.3
2.8
5.9
10.7 10.8 12
28
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
21.5
35.5
9.1
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If peace is to be found through negotaitions, according to yo the negotiations ?
National Trend
40
36.7
33.9
32.1 30
31.3
25.1
16.2
12.4
7.7
May '01 September
'01
25.8
27
26.7
25
23
21.9 21.6
21.7
20.3
19.1 16.4
18.6 16.6
17.2
12.5
4.3
4
23.3
20
19
19.9
18.3 15.9
15.1
14.2 16.4
15.5 15.5
13.5
14
12.1
11
12.9
1
9.5
6.6 5.1
3.5
13.9
8.9
7.9
13.6
12.7
10
10.9
10.5
6.4
7.6
9.8
9.1
8.7 7.7 8.3 12.3 9.2 5.9
6.9
7.8 7
9.6
7.4
10.4
8.1
9.5
10.2
9.8
9.3
10
1 8.8 5.7
0
7.9
9.6
8
6
5.4
9.7
8.2
8.2
8.6
5.6
6.5
4.8
2.1 4.8
2.1
5.3 5.4 4.1 2.5
6.6
2.9
1 1.5 3.3
3.5 4. 2.4
1.9 1.4
0.9
1.9
January
May '02 September
January
May '03 S '02
'02
'03

Page 20
itions, according to your opinion, who should be involved in
Govt. and LTTE only National Trend
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil parties and a International third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt., Opposition, 11.6
LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a International third party 6.3
No peace talks
Don't know
thnic Breakdown
59.1
30.5
26.7
25.1
24.6
20.3
23.3
22
23
19.5 18.3 4
17.2
18.6
15.8
15.9
12.9 2.7
12.5
13.9
12.6
12.2
14.6
12.3
0.2 9.7
2.2 9.5
11.5
10.9
12.1
8.2
9.3
8.8
6.8
6.4
1 1.5 0.9
1.9 1.3 1.2 2.2
12.3
5.9 2.9
9.8
10
10.7
5.7
8.5
January '03
10.2
9.6
6.6
8.2
8.6
9.3
9.5
7.5
10.9
3.3
3.5 4.5 2.7
4
5.2
May '03 September
February '03
'04
Don't know
51.4
No peace talks
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a International third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil parties and a International third party
5.5
Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
Govt. and LTTE only
40 50 60 70

Page 23
National
Up country Tamils
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Ceasefire Agreement (CFA)
"Some people say that the CFA has brought many benefits that the CFA has not yeilded any benefits to the Sri Lankan whether Sri Lankans have benefited or not by the CFA ?
National Breakdown
14.6
20.4
65
Ethnic Breakdown
14.6
20.4
15.5
61.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
6
1.9
24.5
10.1 Muslim
5.5
14.9 Tamil
11.3
Sinhala
22.6

Page 21
ought many benefits to the Sri Lankans while others say fits to the Sri Lankans". In your opinion please tell me r not by the CFA ?
l Breakdown
65
Yes, they have benefited
No, they have not benefited
Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
65
61.9
0 50 60 70 80 90
%
Don't know/Not sure
73.6
No, they have not
84.4
benefited
73.8
Yes, they have benefited

Page 24
National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Some people say that the CFA needs to be amended in orde Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with this opin
National Breakdown
25.5
61.2
13.3
Ethnic Breakdown
13.3
25.5
45.4
13.4
21.1
45.3 11.3
43.4
Muslim
16.7
38
45.7 Tamil
10.1
44.2
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50

Page 22
to be amended in order to strengthen and expand its scope.
isagree with this opinion ?
al Breakdown
25.5
13.3
Agree Disagree Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
44.2
61.2
45.3
Don't know/Not sure
43.4
45.4
Disagree
38
Agree 45.7
65.5
40 50 60 70

Page 25
%
Ethnic Breakdown
0 0
Up-country Tamil
0
2.2
20
4.5 1.8
0
0
6.3 9
24.4
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
75
0
Muslim
3.6
16.4
69.1
1.2
Tamil
0.6
8.6
0.7
14.2
Sinhala
34.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) If you are aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in m opinion of the need for such a monitoring mission for the CF
National Trend
50
41.5
43 43.5 40
37.9
39.4
39.3
40.5
37.5
30
31.2
33.6
29.7
29
27 26.7
26.3
25.3
26.7
24.8
20
1
10.3 10
7.3
5.6
6.7
5.2
5.8 8.4
5.6
2.8
0.6
March '02 July '02 November '02 March '03 July '0
9.6
6.9
7.2
8.5
7.5
5.3
5.4
4.2 0
4.6
4.1 1.9 1.4
1.9
3.8
1.7
4.2
4.5
4.1
5.2 1.7 3.7
0.4
0.2

Page 23
LMM)
foreign monitors in monitoring the CFA, what is your ing mission for the CFA to succeed ?
National Trend
25.4
1.2
0.6
Is essential 43
43.5 36.4
Will have a positive impact
32
33.2
30.1
Will have no impact 27.2
29.4 26.6
Will have a negative impact
Is not essential
Will be a threat to the
2.8
3.9
sovereignty of Sri Lanka
Ethnic Breakdown
86.5
31.7
29
26.7
24.8
16.7
5.2
15.8
7.2
12.1
6.9
8.5
9.1
5.3
5.4
13.2
6.8
11.5
7.5
.1
2.8
3.9
5.5
5 .7 3.7
0.4
0.2 0.6
2.2
1.1
March '03 July '03 November '03 March '05
75.6
50 60 70 80 90 100
Will be a threat to the sovereignty of Sri Lanka
Is not essential
69.1
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
Is essential

Page 26
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
National Trend
50
40
33.1
31.7
33.2 32.8
28.9
26.9 27.6
27
May '02 September
'02
32.1
22.5
30.3
31.3
30
26.8
27.4
30.1 %
20
15.7
21.4
22.8
18 17.8 14.6
0
Ethnic Breakdown
18.3
21.3
19.6
21.9
10
January '03
May '03 Se
8.7
Up-country Tamil
8.7
31.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
20.7
Muslim
29.7
49.5
14.4
Tamil
11.3
Sinhala
50.6
I think the SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of the CFA.

Page 24
nitoring of the CFA.
National Trend
43.6
43.3
31.3
29
30.1
23.6
37
36.4 Agree
2.8
32.1
26.9
27.1
Disagree
27
24.8
Don't
19.6
21.9
18.1
24.4
21.4
know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
74.4
27.7
1.3
May '03 September
'03
February '04
82.6
50.6
0 50 60 70 80 90
%
Don't know/Not sure
49.5
Disagree
Agree

Page 27
%
Ethnic Breakdown
8.5
Up-country Tamil
8.5
33.8
19.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
20
Muslim
30.9
49.1
17
Tamil
13.8
Sinhala
46.6
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
I think the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the CFA.
National Trend
50
26.6
July '02 November
'02
40 40
21.3
33
30
26.1
28.7
30.5
23.8
28
30.6
29.4
24.8
24
29.4
25.6
25.7
20
24.3
22.4
19.3
20.3
1
0
21.1
22.4
10
March '03 July '03

Page 25
nitoring of the CFA.
National Trend
40.7
40.5
33
34.8
35.1 Agree
29.4
29.4
Disagree
19.1
Don't know/Not sure
thnic Breakdown
69.2
30
'03 July '03 November
'03
28.2 29.4
25.6
22.8
26
21.1
22.4
19.7
23.5
March '05
83
46.6
Don't know/Not sure
49.1
Disagree
Agree
8
40 50 60 70 80 90
%

Page 28
%
Ethnic Breakdown
8.6 5.7 Up-country Tamil
0 1.4
14.3
0.8
0.5
12.3
7.9
20.1
0 10 20 30 40 %
50 60 70 8
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
70
7.1
11.9 Muslim
0.8
17.5
6.6
40
61.9
12 2.2 Tamil
0
6
13.2 Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Foreign Involvement
What is your opinion of the need for an international third p conflict in Sri Lanka ?
National Trend
40
38
35.8 32.6
32.1
30
28.9
29.8
31.7 29
29.3
September '01
32.5
32.5
30.9
31.9
30.2
30.6
28.8
29
16
29
20.9
26.1 24.2 21.8
20
0
16.8
16.5
17.9
14.2
13.1
13.2 14.2
16.7
16.2
10
10
11.3
9.6
10.3
9.9
11.3
9.2
9.6
10.2
11.6
10.5
9.5
10.2 10 5.4
3.2
2.1
5.4
4.6 5.7
4.3
3.7
0.7
0.9
1.4
1.4 1.4 1.6 1
January
May '02 September
January
May ' '02
'02
'03

Page 26
n international third party as facilitator to solve the ethnic
National Trend
31.7
14.5
33.6
0.2
30.6
29.8
32.1
30.5
30.7 30.3
29
29
29.3
31.7
28.6
26.2
29.2
28.6
Is essential
23.6
Will add a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will add a negative impact
6.3
Not needed at all
1.7
2.4
Don't know/Not sure
nic Breakdown
79.3
19.8
21.7
.7
17.9
16.2
19.5 19.2 10.5
9.5
10.2
10 9.9 9.6 9.9 12.6
11.7
January '03
11.6
.6
5.7
4.3
3.7 3.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1
5.4
0.9 2.1
2.8
4.2
5.2
May '03 September
February '03
'04
70
50 60 70 80 90
Don't know/Not sure
Not needed at all
61.9
Will add a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will add a positive impact
Is essential

Page 29
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
National Breakdown
2.5
28
4.9
25.8
Ethnic Breakdown
2.5
28 National
4.9
17.7
3.1
13.5
43.8
0 10 20 30 40 %
50
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
25.8
6.4
38.7
0
33.1
45.1 Up-country Tamil
2
3.9
49
0
Muslim
2.5
17.5
27.5
2.4
Tamil
0.8
6.5
Sinhala
Please state the most suitable country that should play the

Page 27
that should play the role of facilitor in the peace process.
National Breakdown
2.5
38.7
India
USA
Japan
Norway
UK
25.8
Ethnic Breakdown
8
8
38.7
45.1
7.5
72.6
33.1
43.8
0 40 %
50 60 70 80
UK 49
Norway
Japan 52.5
USA
India

Page 30
National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
The Norwegian government was facilitating peace negotiati me your level of satisfaction with the Norwegian role as faci
National Breakdown
25
12.2
28.3
Ethnic Breakdown
5.4
25
28.3
34.5 12.2
15.7 2.9
30
10.2
Muslim
12.6
27.6
12.3
Tamil
1.1
38
28.5
Sinhala
31.5
34.7
0 10 20 30 40

Page 28
tating peace negotiations since November 2001. Please tell
orwegian role as facilitator ?
nal Breakdown
12.2
34.5
Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not satisfied at all
Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
25
28.3
27.6
38
28.5
34.5
30
34.7
51.4
Don't know/Not sure
Not satisfied at all
Somewhat satisfied
Very satisfied
31.5
49.6
48.6
30 40 50 60
%

Page 31
National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Please state if you approve ot disapprove of Norway continu
National Breakdown
28.4
36.4
35.3
Ethnic Breakdown
28.4
35.3
36.4
14.9
1.5
11.7
Muslim
17.2
8.5
Tamil
1.1
33.3
Sinhala
43.2
23.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7

Page 29
ve of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace process.
nal Breakdown
36.4
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
4
71.1
43.2
83.6
Don’t know/ Not sure
Disapprove
Approve
90.3
50 60 70 80 90 100
%

Page 32
%
Ethnic Breakdown
5.6 5.6
Up-country Tamil
1.4
4.2
15.3 13.5 6.6
22.8
0 10 20 30 40 %
50
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
18.1
2.4
4.2
12
Muslim
0
0.8
15.2
15.3
19.2
Tamil
2.8 2.8
10.2
49.7
Sinhala
37.5
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
What is your opinion of the need for India's involvement in
National Trend
50
16.2
May '02 September
'02
39.6 40
31.7
33.8
32.7
35.5
35.9
30
27
30.4
2
26.1
26.6
20.8
22.3
27.5 2
20
16.2
16.4 19.2
17.4
18.6
15.9
1
13.6
12.9
12.4
1.6 1.6 0
15.6
14.9
13.1
12.5
14.3
16.8
15.8 13
10
3.5
13.5
5.9
8.4
9.2
7.1
5.6
5.3 6.1
1.2
1.9
1.3 2.7
1.7 3 January
May '03 Sep '03

Page 30
ndia's involvement in the Sri Lankan Peace Process ?
National Trend
39.6
24.6
24.8 30.7
2.5
3.8 Is essential
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Is not essential
Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
49.7
32.3 30.4
27.9
31.2
28.2
22.3
27.5 27.4
17.9
19.1
15.9 13.6
19 16.1 12.9
12.8 12.7
12.4
May '03 September
'03
13.9
13.7
5.3
6.1
5.7
5
4.9 5.6 1.6 1.6 2.1 2 February
'04
65.3
37.5
40 %
50 60 70 80
Don't know/Not sure
69.6
Is not essential
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
Is essential

Page 33
National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Interim Administration Do you agree with setting up an Interim Authority in the No
National Breakdown
19.7
22
58.3
Ethnic Breakdown
11.2
19.7
58.3
22
18.3
31
50.7
15
Muslim
44.9
40.2
15.4 Tamil
3.8
20.7
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Page 31
m Authority in the North East ?
Breakdown
22
Yes
No
Don’t know/ Not sure
thnic Breakdown
40.2
58.3
80.8
0 50 60 70 80 90
%
Don’t know/ Not sure
50.7
No
44.9
Yes
68

Page 34
National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you agree with setting up an Interim Authority in the Nor set up before a final settlement or as part of the final settlem
National Breakdown
16.8
37.7
45.5
Ethnic Breakdown
16.8
45.5
37.7
11.4
28.6
7.8
Muslim
23.5
13.5
Tamil
26.2
24.5
Sinhala
15.6
0 10 20 30 40 50

Page 32
Authority in the North East, do you think that it should be art of the final settlement ?
l Breakdown
37.7
Before a final settlement
As part of a final settlement
Don't know/ Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
45.5
37.7
60
60.3
59.9
40 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know/ Not sure
As part of a final 68.6
settlement
Before a final settlement

Page 35
National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Who should be included in the North East administration ?
National Breakdown
17.8
21.6
44.7
Ethnic Breakdown
1.6
17.8
44.7 16
21.6
12.1
42.2
29.5
54.3 14.7
21.2 15.2
51.5
0
Muslim
0 0
14.1
Tamil
20.3
23.4
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Page 33
East administration ?
tional Breakdown
21.6
16
Only the LTTE
The LTTE and other Tamil political parties
The LTTE, other political parties and representatives of the sinhala and Muslim communities
The LTTE, other political parties and the government
Ethnic Breakdown
.7
51.5
54.3
0 60 70 80 90 100 110
%
The LTTE, other political parties and the government
The LTTE, other political parties and
100
representatives of the sinhala and Muslim communities
The LTTE and other Tamil political parties
Only the LTTE

Page 36
%
Ethnic Breakdown
National
2.9
4.4
5.6
3.3
4.3
2.9
32.7
3
2
21.2
22.6
4.5
0.5
2.4
5.2
28.1
2.7
5.1
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
13.6
Up-country Tamil
0
1.5 1.5 1.5
4.5
13.6
0.9 0.9
40
Muslim
3.5
7
9.6
6.1
16.7
14.9
Tamil
0.7
3.9
11.2
12.5
17.8
0.7
3.3
Sinhala
25.8
27.3
0 10 20 30 40
Tensions in the Eastern Province If you are aware of the increased killings in the Eastern Prov is/are the perpetrator(s) ?
National Breakdown
40
30
3
LTTE and the Security Forces
22.6
4.3
3.3
21.2
20
10
0
LTTE and Karuna faction
LTTE and paramilitary groups
LTTE, the security forces and Karuna faction
LTTE only
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results

Page 34
e
gs in the Eastern Province, in your opinion who do you think
National Breakdown
3.3
32.7
E, the curity es and runa ction
21.2
2.9
4.4
5.6
Don't know
Ethnic Breakdown
.3
LTTE only Paramilitary
Security
Karuna groups
Forces only
faction only
32.7
0 40 50 60 70
%
Don't know
Karuna faction only
59.1
Security Forces only
Paramilitary groups
40
LTTE only
LTTE, the security
48
forces and Karuna faction
LTTE and paramilitary groups
LTTE and Karuna
8.1
faction
LTTE and the Security Forces

Page 37
National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
In your opinion what will be the impact of these recent kilin
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Muslim
Tamil
Sinhala
National Breakdown
8.7
5.8
12
73.4
Ethnic Breakdown
8.7
7.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
73 12 5.8
9.2
3.1 1.5
8
3.5 0
11
3.2 1.9
8.4
69.6 14.7

Page 35
t of these recent kilings on the peace process ?
nal Breakdown
12
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impact
Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
73.4
69.6
50 60 70 80 90 100
%
86.2
Don't know/Not sure
Will have a negative impact
88.5
Will have no impact
83.8
Will have a positive impact

Page 38
National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Tsunami and the Peace Process
Has the Tsunami increased or decreased the likelihood of w
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
National Breakdown
17.2
4.8
23.8
54.2
Ethnic Breakdown
17.2
23.8
54.2 4.8
2.8
12.7
11.3
19.2
Muslim
12
59. 9.6
12.3
Tamil
5.3
10.2
18.4
Sinhala
27.9
50.4 3.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Page 36
ed the likelihood of war ?
nal Breakdown
54.2
Increased
Decreased
No impact
Don't know/Not sure
hnic Breakdown
54.2
50.4
40 50 60 70 80
%
73.2
Don't know/Not sure
No impact
59.2
Decreased
Increased
72.2

Page 39
National
Up-country Tamil
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
If you agree that the likelihood of war has decreased, please
National Breakdow
40
1
Because the GOSL armed forces are heavily affected by the Tsunami disaster
31.4
30
0
27.4
%
20
10
Ethnic Breakdown
0.6
Because the LTTE
Both the is heavily affected
Government and by the Tsunami
the LTTE are disaster
affected badly by the Tsunami
T th
1.5
3.1
35.7 31.4 27.4 1
1.9
3.8
11.5 1.9 1.9
8.2 4.1 Muslim
21.9
61.6
2.7 1.4
2.4 0.8 Tamil
7.9 0
2.4
0.6
3.4 Sinhala
20.3
38.2 36.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Page 37
has decreased, please state why ?
National Breakdown
31.4
35.7
3.1
1.5
Both the Government and the LTTE are affected badly by the Tsunami
Because the Tsunami affected the people so badly
Because of the international pressure
Don't know/Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
2
Don't know/Not sure
Because of the international 78.8
pressure
Because the Tsunami affected the people so badly
Both the Government and the LTTE are affected badly by the Tsunami
Because the LTTE is heavily affected by the Tsunami disaster
Because the GOSL armed forces are heavily affected by the Tsunami disaster
50 60 70 80 90 100
%
61.6
86.5

Page 40
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
National Breakdown
8.5
25.9
65.6
Ethnic Breakdown
8.5 National
25.9
0
12.4
50.9
%
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
65.6
0
Up-country Tamil
4.2 Muslim
22.9
72.9
2.2 Tamil
4.4
Sinhala
36.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Do you approve or disapprove of Norway's facilitations of an Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE on a joint mechanis Tsunami relief ?

Page 38
ay's facilitations of an agreement between the E on a joint mechanism to effectively distribute and utilize
onal Breakdown
65.6
Approve
Disapprove
Don't know
hnic Breakdown
0.9
65.6
60 70 80 90 100 110
%
100
72.9
93.3
Don't know
Disapprove
Approve

Page 41
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in March
DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 244 Gampaha 214 Kalutara 107 Kandy 121 Matale 40 Nuwar Eliya 62 Galle 94 Hambantota 49 Matara 72 Anuradhapura 68 Polonnaruwa 34 Kurunegala 139 Puttlam 64 Badulla 68 Monaragala 34 Ratnapura 94 Kegalle 76 Ampara 51 Batticoloa 46 Trincomalee 37 Vavuniya 14 Jaffna 82 NATIONAL 1808
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in March 2
ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1419 Tamil 189 Muslim 128 Up-country Tamil 71 NATIONAL 1808

Annex
distribution in March 2005
TOTAL 244 214 107 121 40 62 94 49 72 68 34 139 64 68 34 94 76 51 46 37 14 82 1808
istribution in March 2005
TOTAL 1419 189 128 71 1808
05
i
g

Page 42
Copyright © Social Indicator March 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) s in public confidence levels towards the peace process ove be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the February 2004, PCI was conducted bi-monthly, howeve decided to conduct the study quarterly to make the PCI mo
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1800 respondents during each phase of the capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of te undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace proc factors, however the ethnic factor, which is the most im factor that has been accommodated in this model.
The total sample is distributed amongst 22 administrative the Amparai, Batticoloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Jaffna were not covered due logistical difficulties and methodo areas affected by the December 26, 2004 Tsunami, were due to ethical and logistical concerns. The sample siz approximately equal to the population proportions. Howeve due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling bias sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a distr of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Se primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sam Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected random using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 199 Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a m within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a max GND. Within a given GND the enumerator is advised to s proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand the random selection of households.
In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed t households, thus resulting in the interview-taking place at final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the ho ensuring that each member of the household has an equ PCI sample.
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model do analysis at the same level of precision.

nfidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations the peace process over time it is essential that the study al pauses during the study. Hence, from May 2001 to d bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI rly to make the PCI more efficient.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of ring each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to ty within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is ion on the peace process is influenced by a number of which is the most important and influential, is the sole in this model.
gst 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in e, Vavuniya and Jaffna districts the LTTE controlled areas ifficulties and methodological concerns. In addition, the , 2004 Tsunami, were excluded from this wave’s sample erns. The sample size is assigned to each stratum is n proportions. However, some districts are over sampled the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the
r ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit ons of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of
frame.
work and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample ed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a erator is advised to select a starting point randomly and ndom walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure .
rviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the erview-taking place at every alternative household. As the is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus household has an equal chance of being selected to the
subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. hat the PCI model does not support the regional level on.
05
ii

Page 43
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which conducts polls on Socio-e
Operating under the Board of Di
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and filled a longstanding vacuur
professional and independent p.
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Polling is an instrument of empo
the silent majority of the public (
opinions on issues affecting the
Surveys on key social issues, th
which public opinion can influen
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2conomic and political issues.
rectors of the Centre for
is established in September 1999,
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olling facility in Sri Lanka on
Werment, a means by which
can express their
m. Our mission is to conduct
ereby providing a means through
ce the public policy debate.
by:
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