Page 1
~\~ An Opinic
Peace Confide
s
ALSO N THIS WAVE
O Solutions
o Confidence O Ceasefire Agreement (CFA)
O SLMM
O Foreign involvement O Joint Mechanism o Sri Lanka Development Forum o Tensions in Trin Comalee
OPINION OF THE TsUNAMI VICTIMS After Page 47
 

)n Poll On Peace
ce Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
June 2005
Social indicator

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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• INTRODUCTION
• KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELO
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX
(PCI) T
OP
-L
INE
R
ESULTS
IMPORTANT ISSUES
SOLUTIONS
CONFIDENCE
CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT (CFA)
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION (SLMM)
FOREIGN INVOLVEMENT
• P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
JOINT MECHANISM
SRI LANKA DEVELOPMENT FORUM
TENSIONS IN TRINCOMALEE
T
SUNAMI
• P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX
(PCI) – T
SUNAMI
E
• ANNEX

ex
01 RNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 07 X
(PCI) 12
12
13
15
(CFA) 23
MISSION (SLMM) 28
31
S
39
T FORUM 43
LEE 45
46
X
(PCI) – T
SUNAMI
E
DITION
48-62
5

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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I
NTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop
public confidence in the peace process using a set of sta
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of
economic and political developments in order to gauge p
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will prov
useful barometer of the opinions of Sri Lankan polity, and e
the public are given due importance and incorporated into t
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The survey is carried out using a structured questionnair
interviews amongst an 1800 randomly selected sample. Th
administrative districts, however, in the districts of Jaffna, V
Ampara, only the Government controlled areas were surve
the Tsunami (26th December 2004) were also excluded from
logistical concerns. However, a special sample was allocat
order to assess the public opinion on issues concerning
weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of
surveyed.
This is the nineteen wave of the PCI study, which was
publication presents only the top-line results of the June
report presents the top-line results of the PCI while the
results of the survey conducted exclusively in tsunami affect
The results of these nineteen waves offer us data for a co
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of w
developments. The results are subjected to a 3% margin of e

I
NTRODUCTION
fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
ocess using a set of standardized questions, which remain
ther is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
nts in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process,
one wave to another.
period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
f Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of
e and incorporated into the policy debate.
structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
mly selected sample. This survey was conducted among 22
the districts of Jaffna, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Batticoloa and
trolled areas were surveyed. In addition the areas affected by
were also excluded from the main sample due to ethical and
ecial sample was allocated for the tsunami affected areas in
n on issues concerning Tsunami affected people. Data is
ographic composition of the districts in which the sample was
PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This
-line results of the June 2005 survey. The first part of the
lts of the PCI while the second part presents the top-line
clusively in tsunami affected areas.
es offer us data for a comparative study on changing public
g from perceptions of war and peace to the current political
ected to a 3% margin of error.
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
K
EY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
M
• SLMC Leader Rauff Hakeem informed Parliament today that would oppose any move to establish a joint tsunami aid d without consulting the Muslim community. (09 March 2005)-(D
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga's Women's Day speech solution to the North-East problem drew a mixed reaction 2005)- )-(Daily Mirror on 10 March 2005)
• "I deeply regret any offense or misunderstanding caused by th to the Sunday Times which appeared on March 6, 2005. Th phrase "a kind of unofficial state." Regarding World Bank previous statement that I never used the phrase "unofficial s statement" while discussing the Government's LTTE policy, sa News on 12 March 2005)
• A group of suspected Karuna fraction cadres attacked an LTT uncleared area, unconfirmed reports said last night. They said had continued till night.(11 March 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 12 M
• The LTTE had accepted a draft proposal, forwarded by peac government on distributing tsunami relief, AFP reported of LTTE in talks with the Norwegians in Oslo during the weeken millions of dollars in tsunami relief, according to commen Thamilselvan posted on the pro-rebel Tamilnet.com website. ( 2005)
• Police yesterday used tear gas to disperse a crowd of ar Ariyampathi Divisional Secretariat office in Kattankudy deman the disposal of some expired food items, which were reporte Mirror on 14 March 2005)
• Eighty per cent of the funds earmarked by the Government ha and rehabilitation of infrastructure in tsunami affected areas. (TAFREN) said on Sunday that the Government needed townships. This area is open for funding by the international c on 15 March 2005)
• The Australian High Commissioner, Dr. Greg French, visit Batticaloa and Ampara on March 1-3 to inspect the tsunam Australian Government. (14 March 2005)- (Daily News on 15 M
• British Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth concern at the acquisition of an unauthorised aircraft by the L March 2005)
• JVP leader Somawansa Amerasinghe said yesterday the UPFA devolve power since the UPFA did not put it before the peo 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 17 March 2005)
• With joint mechanism talks between the government and the Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe emphasized the ne in the joint mechanism. (16 March 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 17 M
• THE Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) who are in Eur were asked by donor nation Sweden on Tuesday to get back avoid recruiting child soldiers. (17 March 2005)- (Daily News o
• A Sri Lankan professor has said that Canada should ban the University Rohan Edrisinha, who is also a director of the Cen the only way to go forward was for the government and the and work out a political solution, the Toronto Star reported t March 2005)
• A two-hour battle between LTTE cadres and the Karuna fact left at least two dead and several injured while the Sri Lanka M crisis. (21 March 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 22 March 2005)
• The eleven-day satyagraha launched by the North-East Sinhala called off yesterday after the government assured its demand Government aid mechanism scrapped if the people opposed March 2005)

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NAL DEVELOPMENTS
M
ARCH
2005 – J
UNE
2005
d Parliament today that the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) sh a joint tsunami aid distribution mechanism in the north-east unity. (09 March 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 10 March 2005)
Women's Day speech where she cited federalism as the only drew a mixed reaction from political parties today. (09 March 005) derstanding caused by the published version of the interview I gave d on March 6, 2005. The Sunday Times reported that I used the Regarding World Bank policy toward the LTTE, I stand by my d the phrase "unofficial state." Rather, what I said was "an official rnment's LTTE policy, said Peter Harrold. (11 March 2005)-(Daily
n cadres attacked an LTTE camp near Vakarai, off Batticaloa in the said last night. They said the clash that started late in the evening 05)-(Daily Mirror on 12 March 2005)
osal, forwarded by peace broker Norway, to cooperate with the relief, AFP reported officials and Tigers as saying yesterday.The Oslo during the weekend agreed to a "joint mechanism" to handle , according to comments from the group’s political chief S. P. l Tamilnet.com website. (13 March 2005)-(The Island on 14 March
disperse a crowd of around 1500 people who surrounded the fice in Kattankudy demanding tsunami relief and protesting against ems, which were reportedly not expired. (13 March 2005)- (Daily
d by the Government have been channelled for the reconstruction tsunami affected areas. The Task Force for Rebuilding the Nation e Government needed more international assistance to build ing by the international community. (14 March 2005)- (Daily News
, Dr. Greg French, visited the eastern districts of Trincomalee, 3 to inspect the tsunami assistance projects being funded by the 005)- (Daily News on 15 March 2005)
n and Commonwealth Affairs Jack Straw has expressed serious thorised aircraft by the LTTE. (15 March 2005)- (Daily News on 16
said yesterday the UPFA government did not have a mandate to ot put it before the people at the last general election. (16 March 05)
the government and the LTTE reaching the final stages, UNP and inghe emphasized the need for Sinhala and Muslim representation 05)- (Daily Mirror on 17 March 2005)
(LTTE) who are in Europe seeking a bigger share of tsunami aid on Tuesday to get back to the negotiating table and take action to arch 2005)- (Daily News on 18 March 2005)
Canada should ban the LTTE. Professor of Law at the Colombo lso a director of the Centre of Policy Alternatives said he thought the government and the LTTE to continue to talk to each other, Toronto Star reported today. (18 March 2005)- (The Island on 19
dres and the Karuna faction in the Nelichivil jungles in Welikande red while the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission moved in to defuse the r on 22 March 2005)
y the North-East Sinhala Organization, and the hunger strike, were ment assured its demands would be met and the proposed LTTE- d if the people opposed it. (24 March 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 25

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• The Army yesterday categorically denied the existence of an areas in remote Thivichchenai village in the Polonnaruwa dist was ringed by Army camps and detachments. (24 March 2005)-
• The Government could sign a deal brokered by Norway w distributing tsunami relief as long as it was not seen as giv Government, Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar said. (25 2005)
• Five LTTE Wanni cadres were killed in two separate incident the east between the Wanni cadres and the Karuna faction c on 28 March 2005)
• Karuna loyalists struck deep inside LTTE-held territory Saturd and two civilians in two separate incidents at Iralakkulam and P on 28 March 2005)
• The government said today that it does not intend holdin executive presidency. Cabinet spokesman and Media Ministe that there was a misconception that the government is to h executive presidency at enormous cost. (01 April 2005)- (The
• An EPDP cadre, Kokiladasan Gowindan, (21) of Chenkaladi w who arrived on a motorcycle. The victim had been cycling to April 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 04 April 2005)
• A Norwegian member of the Srl Lanka Monitoring Mission t LTTE opened fire on a Navy patrol boat, military spokesm Norwegian was on board the Navy vessel when the Tigers b admitted to Navy hospital in Trincomalee. (05 April 2005)- (T on 06 April 2005)
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission yesterday repeated its con and government controlled areas in the East. Spokeswoma Vocational Training Ministry director Thiyagarajah Kailananda matter and the monitors were probing it. (05 April 2005)- (Dai
• A senior army officer based in Batticaloa had told the Pr ongoing wave of attacks on the LTTE (Vanni faction), that leader Kaushalyan could have been thwarted if the slain cadre (The Island on 07 April 2005)
• Finance Minister Sarath Amunugama -- obviously seething at th tsunami reconstruction efforts -- declared at a press briefing challenge was "uninformed media".(09 April 2005)- (The Island
• LTTE cadres continued firing over the roadblock of the Secur for the fourth day, military spokesman Daya Ratnayake said. (1 2005)
• The Commissioner of Elections has postponed for the 5th bodies in some areas of the North and East. (15 April 2005)- (T
• Visiting US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia C government "to speak with one voice on the peace process" a to a joint mechanism for tsunami relief. (19 April 2005)- (Daily
• The government yesterday warned the LTTE not to provoke wants, saying there is a limit to the government's patience. (2 2005)
• Local environmentalists reiterating their strong opposition to in the Palk Straits, which received the Indian environment permit the project to go ahead, while the government was en 2005)- (The Island on 23 April 2005)
• The Government's main Muslim ally, National Unity Alliance d to the establishment of NUA Leader Ferial Ashraff emphasized to the Norwegian fa community to sit together with the LTTE. (24 April 2005)- (Da
• Missing Police Inspector T. Jeyaratnam’s wife, Sarala Jeyaratn Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had abducted her doubts about it. I am sure the LTTE did it. (24 April 2005)- (Th

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nied the existence of any LTTE camp in Government-controlled in the Polonnaruwa district. It refuted allegations that this village hments. (24 March 2005)- (Daily News on 25 March 2005)
brokered by Norway with the LTTE to provide a formula for s it was not seen as giving the LTTE de facto recognition as a man Kadirgamar said. (25 March 2005)- (Daily News on 26 March
in two separate incidents on Saturday as clashes for supremacy in and the Karuna faction continued. (27 March 2005)- (Daily Mirror
TE-held territory Saturday night, killing three Vanni faction cadres ents at Iralakkulam and Perimbaweli. (26 March 2005)- (The Island
does not intend holding a referendum on the abolition of the sman and Media Minister Mangala Samaraweera, told The Island the government is to hold a referendum on the abolition of the st. (01 April 2005)- (The Island on 02 April 2005) an, (21) of Chenkaladi was shot dead with a 3.8 pistol by gunmen ctim had been cycling to the Kovil at the time of the incident. (03 il 2005) nka Monitoring Mission today received gunshot injuries when the l boat, military spokesman Brigadier Daya Ratnayake said. The vessel when the Tigers breached the CFA by firing on it. He was alee. (05 April 2005)- (The Island on 06 April 2005 & Daily News
sterday repeated its concern over continuing lawlessness in LTTE the East. Spokeswoman Helen Olafsdottir said the killings of Thiyagarajah Kailanandan in Batticaloa on Monday was a serious g it. (05 April 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 06 April 2005) tticaloa had told the Presidential Commission, investigating the E (Vanni faction), that the attack on Ampara-Batticaloa political warted if the slain cadre listened to their advice. (06 April 2005)-
-- obviously seething at three months of media criticism over post- lared at a press briefing last week that the government's biggest 9 April 2005)- (The Island on 10 April 2005)
e roadblock of the Security Forces at Mahindapura in Trincomalee n Daya Ratnayake said. (18 April 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 19 April
postponed for the 5th time the local government polls for 53 d East. (15 April 2005)- (The Island on 16 April 2005) State for South Asia Christina B. Rocca yesterday urged the on the peace process" and together with the LTTE speedily agree f. (19 April 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 20 April 2005) e LTTE not to provoke it into starting another war, which no one overnment's patience. (21 April 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 22 April
eir strong opposition to the controversial Sethusamudram project the Indian environment ministry’s approval, said they would not e the government was entangled in a bureaucratic mess. (22 April
National Unity Alliance dropped a bombshell when it too objected ent of a joint mechanism. ed to the Norwegian facilitators that she saw no reason for her TTE. (24 April 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 25 April 2005) m’s wife, Sarala Jeyaratnam says that she has no doubts that the TTE) had abducted her husband. She told The Island "I have no
id it. (24 April 2005)- (The Island on 25 April 2005)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The proposed joint mechanism between the government and t reconstruction, is running into stiff resistance from the Mu organisations in the Eastern Province. (25 April 2005)- (The Island
• The JVP yesterday urged the international community to, instea government and its constituent parties to agree to a joint distribution of tsunami aid, produce a road map for peace in the on 27 April 2005)
• World Bank Chief James Wolfensohn has commended the mechanism and the use of State banks' network to disperse tsun the 2005 WB/IMF's spring meeting which concluded in Washin News on 27 April 2005)
• The Central Bank revealed yesterday that for the first time in th had topped the US$ 1,000 mark though prosperity is largely co April 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 30 April 2005)
• Police investigating journalist Dharmalingam Sivaram’s killing are the banks of the Diyawanna Oya near parliament. Sivaram, also Taraki had been shot once through his head killing him instan 9mm empties near the body. (29 April 2005)- (The Island on 01 M
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga yesterday agreed to a reques participate in the funeral of slain journalist Dharmaretnam Sivara Batticaloa today, state television Rupavahini reported. (01 May 20
• In one of her toughest statements, President Chandrika Kuma with the joint mechanism with the LTTE even if that meant los the UPFA government. (03 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 04 May 2
• Within five days of President Chandrika Kumartunga’s public st think the JVP would oppose the proposed joint mechanism wit rebuilding, JVP leader Somawansa Amarasinghe has said his party their answer to such a mechanism is a definite NO. (03 May 2005
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga yesterday held one to on Rajapakse to brief him on the progress of talks on the Joint M the northeast and also on the government's proposed restruct incurring losses, political sources said. (04 May 2005)- (Daily Mirr
• Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) leader Veerasingham National Alliance (TNA) Parliamentarians to condemn the kil others, when they debate the killing of the TamilNet editor D. 2005)- (The Island on 05 May 2005)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga has briefed the Cabinet on t the LTTE -- a subject hardly discussed in the Cabinet previously a draft copy of the agreement soon. (05 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror
• The main opposition UNP today said it was not ready to d government saying it was premature to talk about it at this sta Kumaratunga the UNP was responding to an invitation Wickremesinghe by her to discuss the joint mechanism on May May 2005)
• TONY Blair won a historic straight third term as Prime Ministe birthday today, but with a lower majority. Congratulatory mess his victory was confirmed. (06 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 07 M
• While President Chandrika Kumaratunga was making prepa diplomats to brief them on the proposed Joint Mechanism (JM LTTE, the UPFA coalition ally JVP fired an anti-JM propaganda government plans. (07 May 2005)- (The Island on 08 May 2005)
• With just days to go for the crucial international donor confer reported to be still not unanimous in their decision to sign a join joint mechanism between the government and the LTTE, dipl today. (10 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 11 May 2005)
• Life in several areas of the North and the East came to a stan hartal was staged to protest the killing of a demonstrator during in Batticaloa on Monday. (10 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 11 May
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n the government and the LTTE, to handle tsunami relief and esistance from the Muslim political parties and the Sinhala 25 April 2005)- (The Island on 26 April 2005)
nal community to, instead of bringing pressure to bear on the es to agree to a joint mechanism with the LTTE for the oad map for peace in the country. (26 April 2005)- (The Island
n has commended the Sri Lankan tsunami aid distribution network to disperse tsunami grants as an example to others, at ich concluded in Washington recently. (26 April 2005)- (Daily
at for the first time in the country's history, per capita income h prosperity is largely confined to the Western Province. (29 2005)
gam Sivaram’s killing are baffled as to why he was shot dead on parliament. Sivaram, also known by his journalistic pseudonym, s head killing him instantaneously. Police have recovered two 2005)- (The Island on 01 May 2005)
rday agreed to a request by the LTTE to allow its members to list Dharmaretnam Sivaram in a government-controlled area in hini reported. (01 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 02 May 2005) sident Chandrika Kumaratunga yesterday vowed to go ahead E even if that meant losing her presidency or the downfall of (Daily Mirror on 04 May 2005) a Kumartunga’s public statement at Piliyandala that she did not sed joint mechanism with the LTTE to handle tsunami aid and asinghe has said his party does not speak with two tongues and efinite NO. (03 May 2005)- (The Island on 04 May 2005) terday held one to one talks with Prime Minister Mahinda s of talks on the Joint Mechanism for tsunami rehabilitation in ent's proposed restructuring programme on state institutions (04 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 05 May 2005)
) leader Veerasingham Anandasangaree challenges the Tamil ans to condemn the killings of all journalists, academics and the TamilNet editor D. Sivaram, in Parliament today. (04 May
briefed the Cabinet on the details of the joint mechanism with n the Cabinet previously -- and undertook to give the Ministers 5 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 06 May 2005)
it was not ready to discuss the joint mechanism with the talk about it at this stage. In a letter to President Chandrika ding to an invitation sent to Opposition leader Ranil joint mechanism on May 9. (06 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 07
rd term as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on his 52nd ity. Congratulatory messages poured in from world leaders as 5)- (Daily Mirror on 07 May 2005)
nga was making preparations for a meeting with foreign sed Joint Mechanism (JM) between the government and the an anti-JM propaganda salvo yesterday, vowing to defeat the Island on 08 May 2005) ternational donor conference in Kandy the donor nations are eir decision to sign a joint statement insisting on the need for a ent and the LTTE, diplomatic sources told the Daily Mirror 11 May 2005) the East came to a standstill yesterday when an LTTE-backed of a demonstrator during clashes at a checkpoint near Sandivel )- (Daily Mirror on 11 May 2005)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The JVP today called on President Chandrika Kumaratunga to ho North and East as provided for in the Constitution. JVP Leader So at the Town Hall grounds in Colombo to protest over the p government and the LTTE said the failure to hold PC elections Tamil-speaking people there of their basic rights. (10 May 2005)- (D
• Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe yesterday expressed su the establishment of a post-tsunami operational management struc of the peace process. (11 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 12 May 2005
• The donor community will not make any demands on the gove LTTE on the Joint Mechanism, prior to the Sri Lanka Developme next week, World Bank Country Director Peter Harrold said tod May 2005)
• A mysterious sword and spear group calling itself the 'Therapu responsibility for the killing of senior journalist Dharmaretnam Si harm to the motherland would face the same fate. (12 May 2005)-
• The Indian High Commission last night dismissed reports attribu Secretary Shyam Saran and Norwegian Special Envoy Erik Solheim was opposed to any dictatorship by the Tamil Tigers in the propo 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 14 May 2005)
• The Sri Lanka Army said yesterday it was ironic for the LTTE t guardian of the Tamils as it obstructed the Army's humanitarian m of mined land on the side of the A9 road to prepare a civilian cros on 16 May 2005)
• JHU parliamentary group leader Ven. Athuraliye Rathana Thera session of the Sri Lanka Development Forum -- making an unsche the proposed joint mechanism. (16 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 17
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga today said her life was in "extre a joint mechanism on aid-sharing with the LTTE. (06 May 2005)- (T
• The Government recorded an unprecedented response from the tsunami reconstruction plan, on the first date of the Sri Lanka D donors making commitments worth US$ 2.2 billion yesterda Amunugama announced last evening here in Kandy. (16 May 2005)-
• Trincomalee town is under police curfew after clashes between Clashes which erupted early yesterday morning have already c injuring three others. Military spokesman Brigadier Daya Ratnay Tamil groups were instigated by the LTTE and they had hurled 2005)- (The Island on 18 May 2005)
• Trincomalee which was affected by an LTTE inspired hartal on Tu as well with shops closed and streets deserted with hardly a sig Mirror on 19 May 2005)
• The UNP is furious over a CWC claim that the main opposit ongoing efforts to establish a Joint Mechanism (JM), which wo rehabilitation and reconstruction work, in the northern and easter efforts being made to strengthen the peace process, the CWC ch May 2005)
• India has voiced concern over the LTTE acquiring air power, whic the world has been able to acquire themselves, a report in The saying, "It puts a serious question on the LTTE's commitment t 2005)- (The Island on 21 May 2005)
• The TNA said yesterday courage had been displayed by the gov process forward and said the party hoped that words would n 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 21 May 2005)
• Human Rights Watch yesterday (24) called for an end to the killin and the LTTE to support the appointment of an independent com have created fear among the Sri Lankan Tamils. The New York ba the government and the LTTE is welcome, but some are using it a (24 May 2005)- (The Island on 25 May 2005)
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rika Kumaratunga to hold provincial elections separately for the nstitution. JVP Leader Somawansa Amarasinghe addressing a rally to protest over the proposed joint mechanism between the re to hold PC elections in the North and East had denied the
rights. (10 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 11 May 2005) e yesterday expressed surprise at the President's statement that ational management structure or a joint mechanism was not part aily Mirror on 12 May 2005)
y demands on the government to sign an agreement with the he Sri Lanka Development Forum Donor Conference in Kandy r Peter Harrold said today. (12 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 13
alling itself the 'Therapuththabhaya Balakaya' yesterday claimed rnalist Dharmaretnam Sivaram and warned that others who did ame fate. (12 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 13 May 2005)
ismissed reports attributed to a discussion between its foreign ecial Envoy Erik Solheim in Delhi where it was stated that India amil Tigers in the proposed northeast joint mechanism. (13 May
as ironic for the LTTE to call itself the sole representative and e Army's humanitarian mine clearance team from clearing a patch to prepare a civilian crossing point. (15 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror
thuraliye Rathana Thera created a stir at yesterdays' inaugural rum -- making an unscheduled statement slamming the LTTE and 005)- (Daily Mirror on 17 May 2005) said her life was in "extreme danger" as she moved to enter into
LTTE. (06 May 2005)- (The Island on 17 May 2005) nted response from the donor community yesterday for its post date of the Sri Lanka Development Forum held in Kandy with S$ 2.2 billion yesterday itself, Finance Minister Dr. Sarath in Kandy. (16 May 2005)- (Daily News on 17 May 2005) w after clashes between Sinhalese and organised Tamil groups. morning have already claimed the life of one Sinhalese while n Brigadier Daya Ratnayake told The Island that the organised TE and they had hurled grenades at Sinhalese shops. (17 May
TE inspired hartal on Tuesday remained a ghost town yesterday eserted with hardly a sign of life visible. (18 May 2005)- (Daily
that the main opposition party was trying to jeopardise the chanism (JM), which would give the LTTE a hand in tsunami the northern and eastern provinces. The UNPwas impeding the e process, the CWC charged. (18 May 2005)- (The Island on 19
acquiring air power, which no other organized terrorist group in selves, a report in The Times of India said quoting an analyst e LTTE's commitment to any negotiated settlement." (20 May
en displayed by the government in its effort to take the peace ed that words would now be translated into action. (20 May
d for an end to the killings of civilians and asked the government nt of an independent commission to probe the killings, as these amils. The New York based HRW said, "The ceasefire between , but some are using it as an opportunity to kill their opponents. 05)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Aid money given to rebuild Sri Lanka after December's ground, to the frustration of governments and donors, in an interview. (25 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 26 May
• The JVP leaders now in Tokyo had asked Japanese peac freely elected by the people could work with a terroris 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 26 May 2005)
• While the JVP's latest proposals for a national coun positive aspects, President Chandrika Kumaratunga connected to ground realities in the North-East, Pres (Daily Mirror on 27 May 2005)
• The Supreme Court yesterday acquitted, of all the appealed to the Court against the judgement of the convicted of the murder of 27 detainees at the Bindunu members of an unlawful assembly, with the object o caused hurt to fourteen of the detainees. (27 May 2005)
• The remaining four accused in the Bindunuwewa rehab acquitted by a five-judge Bench of the Supreme Court lacked merit. (27 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 28 May 20
• EUROPEAN truce monitors in Sri Lanka have warned ignite war on the island and destabilise security in Monitoring Mission said the LTTE possess an airstrip in by government forces to bomb it could lead to the res on 28 May 2005)
• Former US President and United Nations Special Envoy LTTE front organisation, TRO (Tamil Rehabilitation O hotel along with other non governmental organisation Nations office in Colombo. (29 May 2005)- (The Island o
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga today said the prop solid stepping stone to a permanent peace and therefo the move by sticking to philosophies which are not pr May 2005)
• Head of the Military Intelligence Corps Major Nizam M to be from the LTTE at Polhengoda today morning. (31
• The LTTE has invited the four major donor agencies t development forum held in Kandy and how the futur work could be carried out. (01 June 2005)- (Daily Mirro
• A UNCHR research has revealed that 65 per cent of t to live within the buffer zone. (01 June 2005)- (Daily Ne
• India today gave visiting Sri Lankan President Chandrika joint mechanism amidst certain conditions, top diplo 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 04 June 2005)
• India is willing to help Sri Lanka redesign its air defe improve its airspace coverage, the ‘Indian Express’ new Island on 04 June 2005)
• The United States last week joined India is expressing capability. During a discussion with Foreign Minister Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice on Friday said h LTTE’s acquisition of air capability. (04 June 2005)- (The
• Two LTTE cadres believed to be members of its i unidentified gunman yesterday morning near the Koch (Daily Mirror on 06 June 2005)
• Another man described by police as an LTTE intellige Wellawatte on Sunday night. (05 June 2005)- (Daily Mirr
• JHU parliamentarian Ven Dr.Omalpe Sobhitha Thera Dalada Maligawa, in protest against the proposed Join time that a fast to death is being held at the Dalada Ma the country. (06 June 2005)- (The Island on 07 June 2005

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Lanka after December's devastating tsunami is getting held up on the overnments and donors, World Bank Vice President Praful Patel said )- (Daily Mirror on 26 May 2005)
had asked Japanese peace envoy Yashushi Akashi how a government uld work with a terrorist organisation in a joint mechanism. (25 May y 2005) sals for a national council for tsunami aid distribution have some handrika Kumaratunga cannot accept them because they are not in the North-East, Presidential sources said today. (26 May 2005)- ) ay acquitted, of all the charges, the accused appellants, who had t the judgement of the High Court trial-at-Bar, whereby they were detainees at the Bindunuwewe Rehabilitation Camp, and also of being mbly, with the object of causing hurt to the detainees, and having
detainees. (27 May 2005)- (The Island on 28 May 2005) the Bindunuwewa rehabilitation camp massacre case were yesterday h of the Supreme Court on the basis that the evidence against them Daily Mirror on 28 May 2005) n Sri Lanka have warned that the "air assets" of the LTTE could re- destabilise security in South Asia. The Norwegian-led Sri Lanka TE possess an airstrip in the island's north, but warned that any move it could lead to the resumption of war. (27 May 2005)- (Daily News
ed Nations Special Envoy on Tsunami Recovery, Bill Clinton met with (Tamil Rehabilitation Organisation) on Saturday at the Trans-Asia vernmental organisations. The meeting was facilitated by the United 9 May 2005)- (The Island on 30 May 2005)
nga today said the proposed joint mechanism with the LTTE was a anent peace and therefore urged opposing elements not to sabotage ophies which are not practical. (29 May 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 30
ce Corps Major Nizam Muthaliph was gunned down by men believed
goda today morning. (31 May 2005)- (Daily News on 01 June 2005)
major donor agencies to Kilinochchi to discuss the outcome of the andy and how the future tsunami reconstruction and rehabilitation 1 June 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 02 June 2005)
led that 65 per cent of the tsunami affected Sri Lankans have refused (01 June 2005)- (Daily News on 02 June 2005)
kan President Chandrika Kumaratunga the nod to go ahead with the in conditions, top diplomatic sources revealed last night. (03 June e 2005) nka redesign its air defence network and provide it with radars to the ‘Indian Express’ newspaper reported today. (03 June 2005)- (The
oined India is expressing concern over the LTTE’s acquisition of air n with Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar in Washington, US a Rice on Friday said her government "took serious note" of the ility. (04 June 2005)- (The Island on 05 June 2005)
o be members of its intelligence unit were gunned down by an morning near the Kochchikade church in Colombo. (05 June 2005)- )
lice as an LTTE intelligence cadre was shot dead at Nelson Place in 05 June 2005)- (Daily Mirror on 07 June 2005)
malpe Sobhitha Thera today commenced a fast unto death, at the gainst the proposed Joint Mechanism with the LTTE.This is the first ng held at the Dalada Maligawa, one of the holiest Buddhist shrines in The Island on 07 June 2005)

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F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED
22ND JUNE 2005
♦ When asked to rate five national issues according to th point scale, the economy was rated the highest (8.13 (7.2) and the Tsunami recovery (5.85). From an ethn Sinhala (8.56) and Muslim (7.45) communities rate the issue that needs the attention of the Government. A Up-Country Tamil (7.94) communities rate the peace important issue that needs Government’s attention. (Re
♦ Regarding the ‘no war, no peace’ situation that is cu
majority (76.7%) states that the continuation of th Government and the LTTE should go for a permane which is a slight increase since March 2005 (72.4%) majority of all the ethnic groups support this opinion (S 46.8%, and Up-Country Tamil–93.5%). However, the changed dramatically during the last three months. The negotiations has decreased from 85.8% in March ’05 to for the continuation of the present situation without a 8.7% in March ’05 to 20.4% in June ’05. Moreover through war has increased since March 2005 (March Page 13-14)
♦ 42.7% agree that the Government is committed to fin decrease since March 2005 (53.4%). Although a maj Sinhala (43.6%) communities agree that the Governm through talks, it seems that their faith in the Governm decreased compared to three months ago (March ’05 54.8%). The percentage who disagrees amongst th communities has decreased compared to March 2005 ’05-Up-Country Tamil-41.4%). (Ref. Page 15-16)
♦ 48% agree with the statement that the Government is talks, which is a decrease since March 2005 (56.6% majority of the Sinhala (45.6%), Tamil (55.4%), and majority of the Up-Country Tamil (42.6%) community Page 17)
♦ 46.2% disagree with the statement that the LTTE is c talks. From an ethnic perspective, a majority of the Sin that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks (76.2%), Muslim (38%) and Up-Country Tamil (53.7%) is committed to find peace through talks, their faith Muslim (By 12.4%) and Up-Country Tamil (By 11.5%) s while the Tamil (By 6.3%) support has slightly decreased
♦ There seems to be mixed opinions with regard to the
through talks. While 33.6% agree that the LTTE is capa 29% disagree with this opinion. Another 37.4% don’t perspective shows that a majority of the Tamil (68%),

ndex
HE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
2005
TO 22ND JUNE 2005
nal issues according to the degree of importance, using 10 rated the highest (8.13) followed by the peace process ry (5.85). From an ethnic perspective a majority of the 5) communities rate the economy as the most important of the Government. A majority of the Tamil (7.61) and munities rate the peace process of Sri Lanka as the most vernment’s attention. (Ref. Page 12)
ace’ situation that is currently prevailing in Sri Lanka, a the continuation of this situation is bad and that the hould go for a permanent solution through negotiations, ce March 2005 (72.4%). From an ethnic perspective, a s support this opinion (Sinhala-77.2%, Tamil-88%, Muslim- il–93.5%). However, the Muslim opinion seems to have e last three months. Their support for a solution through m 85.8% in March ’05 to 46.8% in June ’05. Their support esent situation without a final solution has increased from in June ’05. Moreover, Muslim support for a solution nce March 2005 (March ’05-2.4%, June ’05-30.4%). (Ref.
ent is committed to find peace through talks, which is a 53.4%). Although a majority of the Muslim (48.4%) and agree that the Government is committed to find peace eir faith in the Government’s commitment to peace has months ago (March ’05 Sinhala-57.7%, March ’05 Muslim- disagrees amongst the Tamil and Up-Country Tamil ompared to March 2005 (March ’05 Tamil-54.4%, March
(Ref. Page 15-16)
that the Government is capable of finding peace through ce March 2005 (56.6%). This opinion is seen across a %), Tamil (55.4%), and Muslim (69.9%) communities. A amil (42.6%) community don’t know or are unsure. (Ref.
ment that the LTTE is committed to find peace through ive, a majority of the Sinhala (55.4%) community disagree find peace through talks. Although a majority of the Tamil -Country Tamil (53.7%) communities agree that the LTTE rough talks, their faith has decreased since March 2005. untry Tamil (By 11.5%) support has significantly decreased, ort has slightly decreased. (Ref. Page 18-19)
ions with regard to the LTTE’s capability of finding peace ee that the LTTE is capable of finding peace through talks, n. Another 37.4% don’t know or are unsure. The ethnic rity of the Tamil (68%), Muslim (52.3%) and Up-Country
5
09TH J
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Tamil (47.7%) communities agree that the LTTE is capa Nevertheless there is a decrease of Tamil (By 11.8%) Sinhala community however, has a divided opinion. (A Don’t know/Not sure- 39.8%).(Ref. Page 20-21)
♦ When asked how close they think is to a final se
compared with the situation a year ago, people have m Remains the same- 27.7%, Not close at all - 24.6%, D ethnic perspective shows that a majority of the Ta communities believe that the country is very close in the ethnic conflict. The Sinhala (Very close-25.8%, Rem all-26%, Don’t know/Not sure-18.7%) and the Up-C Remains the same-29.9%, Not close at all- 24.9%, Don’ have a divided opinion in this regard. (Ref. Page 22)
♦ Of those who are aware of the Ceasefire Agreement
(68.8%) stated that they have benefited from the CFA the ethnic groups (Sinhla-65.8%, Tamil-76.4%, Muslim- 23.3% of Sri Lankans stated that they have not benefited
♦ When asked to name the most important benefits of th
freedom of movement as the most important benefit from a majority of the Sinhala (63%), Tamil (84.1%), Tamil (76.1%) communities. 56.9% named peaceful e ending of killing, 37.6% ending of destruction, and 38.5 most important benefits of the CFA. (Ref. Page 25)
♦ 59.9% of Sri Lankans express satisfaction with the G
Ceasefire Agreement. This opinion is seen across all Tamil-57.6%, Muslim- 83.5%, and Up-Country Tamil- 62
♦ 64.3% of Sri Lankans express dissatisfaction with rega
the Ceasefire Agreement. The ethnic perspective reve (76.7%) community express dissatisfaction with the L Agreement. However, a significantly higher percentag Country Tamil (78.9%) community express satisf commitment to Ceasefire Agreement. 47.1% of satisfaction while 34.4% express dissatisfaction. (Ref. Pag
♦ Of those who are aware of the Sri Lanka Monitorin
believe that a monitoring mission is essential and will h to succeed. The ethnic perspective reveals that a majo (80.9%) and Up-Country Tamil (85.9%) communities su Sinhala community has a divided opinion in this rega positive impact- 35.7%, Not Essential and will have a p 28)
♦ 44.4% of Sri Lankans disagree with the statement tha impartial in its monitoring the Ceasefire Agreement majority of the Sinhala (53%) community disagree wit majority of the Tamil (72.5%), Muslim (50.3%) a communities agree with the statement. (Ref. Page 29)

ndex
ee that the LTTE is capable of finding peace through talks. ase of Tamil (By 11.8%) support since March 2005. The has a divided opinion. (Agree – 26.4%, Disagree – 33.8%, (Ref. Page 20-21)
y think is to a final settlement to the ethnic conflict, year ago, people have mixed opinions (Very close - 31.1%, t close at all - 24.6%, Don’t know/Not sure- 16.6%). The t a majority of the Tamil (51.7%) and Muslim (55.4%) country is very close in approaching a final settlement to (Very close-25.8%, Remains the same-29.5%, Not close at e-18.7%) and the Up-Country Tamil (Very close-38.1%, close at all- 24.9%, Don’t know/Not sure-7%)communities egard. (Ref. Page 22)
he Ceasefire Agreement (CFA), a majority of Sri Lankans benefited from the CFA. This opinion is seen across all %, Tamil-76.4%, Muslim- 77%, Up- Country Tamil- 92%). t they have not benefited from the CFA. (Ref. Page 23-24)
t important benefits of the CFA, a majority (67.7%) named most important benefit of the CFA. This opinion stems a (63%), Tamil (84.1%), Muslim (81.8%) and Up-Country 56.9% named peaceful environment in the country, 48% of destruction, and 38.5% feeling of security as the other CFA. (Ref. Page 25)
satisfaction with the Government’s commitment to the inion is seen across all the ethnic groups (Sinhala-58.7%, nd Up-Country Tamil- 62.7%).(Ref. Page 26)
dissatisfaction with regard to the LTTE’s commitment to ethnic perspective reveals that a majority of the Sinhala issatisfaction with the LTTE’s commitment to Ceasefire ficantly higher percentage of the Tamil (80.5%) and Up- munity express satisfaction with regard to LTTE’s greement. 47.1% of the Muslim community express s dissatisfaction. (Ref. Page 27)
the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, 46.6% of Sri Lankans ion is essential and will have a positive impact for the CFA ctive reveals that a majority of the Tamil (88.1%), Muslim l (85.9%) communities support this opinion. However, the ded opinion in this regard. (Is essential and will have a ssential and will have a positive impact- 23.8%).(Ref. Page
with the statement that Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is e Ceasefire Agreement. From an ethnic perspective, a community disagree with the statement. Nevertheless a 5%), Muslim (50.3%) and Up-Country Tamil (59.2%) atement. (Ref. Page 29)
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♦ 43.9% disagree with the statement that Sri Lanka Mo monitoring of the Ceasefire Agreement. From an eth Sinhala (51.9%) community disagree with the statemen Tamil (69.1%), Muslim (46.6%) and Up-Country Tamil the statement. (Ref. Page 30)
♦ 42.9% believe having an International third party as fac positive impact in solving the ethnic conflict. From an the Tamil (72.6%), Muslim (73.2%) and Up-Country T this opinion while the Sinhala community has a divided and will have a positive impact- 34.1%, Not Essential 19.9%).(Ref. Page 31)
♦ 41.8% believe that India is the most suitable count
facilitator in the peace process. This opinion is seen Muslim (40%) communities. In fact the Muslim suppo March 2005 (March’05-27.5%, June’05-40%). Neverthe decreased since March 2005 (March ’05-52.5%, June ’0 (66.5%) and Up-Country Tamil (62.2%) communitie suitable country that should play the role of facilitator. (
♦ With regard to the level of satisfaction on the Norweg have a divided opinion. (Very satisfied- 8.5% Some wha all- 30.1%, Don’t know/Not sure- 31.2%). From an eth Tamil (Very satisfied-38.8%, Somewhat satisfied- 49.7 satisfied-30%, Somewhat satisfied- 39.8%) communiti Norwegian role as facilitator. A majority of Muslim (4 satisfied although the percentage of very satisfied Mu 2005 (March ’05-27.6%, June ’05-18.2%). The Sinhala ((Very satisfied- 2.3% Some what satisfied- 25.7% N know/Not sure- 35.5%).(Ref. Page 34-35)
♦ When asked if they approve or disapprove of Norway process, Sri Lankans have divided opinions in this regar 37.3% disapprove. However, on the ethnic grounds Muslim (53.4%) and Up-Country Tamil (71.7%) co continuing to facilitate the peace process. However, approve Norway continuing to facilitate has decreas 71.1%, June’05-53.4%). 45.4% of the Sinhala communit facilitator. (Ref. Page 36-37)
♦ 39.8% of Sri Lankans believe that India’s involvement i essential and will have a positive impact. Another 19.6 is not essential but will have a positive impact. The majority of the Tamil (53.2%), Muslim (78.2%) a communities believe that India’s involvement is essenti while a majority of the Sinhala community has a divid have a positive impact- 33%, Not Essential and will hav Page 38)

ndex
ment that Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its greement. From an ethnic perspective, a majority of the agree with the statement. Nevertheless a majority of the ) and Up-Country Tamil (53.2%) communities agree with
ational third party as facilitator is essential and will have a ethnic conflict. From an ethnic perspective, a majority of .2%) and Up-Country Tamil (77.2%) communities are of ommunity has a divided opinion in this regard. (Is essential ct- 34.1%, Not Essential and will have a positive impact-
he most suitable country that should play the role of ss. This opinion is seen across the Sinhala (47.5%) and n fact the Muslim support for India has increased since June’05-40%). Nevertheless their support for Norway has March ’05-52.5%, June ’05-33.4%). A majority of the Tamil mil (62.2%) communities believe Norway as the most ay the role of facilitator. (Ref. Page 32-33)
tisfaction on the Norwegian role as facilitator, Sri Lankans satisfied- 8.5% Some what satisfied- 30.1% Not satisfied at re- 31.2%). From an ethnic perspective, a majority of the omewhat satisfied- 49.7%) and Up-Country Tamil (Very fied- 39.8%) communities express satisfaction with the A majority of Muslim (42.7%) community are somewhat age of very satisfied Muslims has decreased since March ’05-18.2%). The Sinhala community has a divided opinion what satisfied- 25.7% Not satisfied at all- 36.4%, Don’t age 34-35)
r disapprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace ed opinions in this regard. While 28.6% approve, another on the ethnic grounds a majority of the Tamil (91%), ntry Tamil (71.7%) communities approve of Norway ace process. However, the percentage of Muslims who to facilitate has decreased since March 2005 (March’05- of the Sinhala community disapprove of Norway’s role as
hat India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan Peace Process is ve impact. Another 19.6% believe that India’s involvement a positive impact. The ethnic perspective reveals that a 2%), Muslim (78.2%) and Up-Country Tamil (64.5%) ’s involvement is essential and will have a positive impact, la community has a divided opinion (Is essential and will ot Essential and will have a positive impact- 21.7%). (Ref.
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♦ When asked if they approve or disapprove of the Joint Lankans disapprove the Joint Mechanism while 33.2% ethnic perspective, a majority of the Tamil (92.6%), Tamil (94.1%) communities approve the Joint Mechan community disapproves. 28.6% of Sri Lankans have no Mechanism.(Ref. Page 39)
♦ When asked if they agree or disagree with the stat
would be a stepping stone for permanent peace, 38.4% statement. From an ethnic perspective, a majority o disagree with the statement. A majority of the Tami Country Tamil (87.4%) communities agree that the Join stone for permanent peace. (Ref. Page 40)
♦ There seems to be mixed opinion with regard to the Joint Mechanism to distribute tsunami relief in the effective tsunami relief- 22.9%, International pressure- would receive more financial benefits- 28%, To build go 10.9%, Other- 4.7%). A majority of the Muslim (47%) communities believe that the Government is commi because of its genuine desire for effective tsunami re Tamil (32.1%) and Sinhala (35.7%) communities bel pressure. (Ref. Page 41)
♦ 57.4% of Sri Lankans believe that that the LTTE is c
because it would receive more financial benefits. This (66.8%) and Muslim (56.5%) communities. A majorit Country Tamil (59.8%) communities believe that the Mechanism because of its genuine desire for effective ts
♦ Of those who are aware of the Sri Lanka Development
(57.3%) believe that it will have positive impact on the is seen across a majority of all the ethnic groups (Sinh 73.9%, Up-Country Tamil-79.1%).(Ref. Page 43)
♦ 41.3% believe that the Sri Lanka Development Forum peace process. This opinion is seen across the Tamil Country Tamil (70.5%) communities. However, the opinion (Positive impact- 34.6%, Negative impact- 10.1% 35%).(Ref. Page 44)
♦ 36.9% of Sri Lankans believe that the provocation by s
the LTTE is the main cause of the recent tensions perspective, a majority of the Sinhala (48.2%) com majority of the Tamil (56%), Muslim (54.5%) and Up-Co believe erecting a Buddha statue in an unauthorized pla main cause of these tensions. (Ref. Page 45)
♦ When asked if Tsunami has increased or decreased t
that it has decreased the likelihood of war, while 19.1 likelihood of war. 18.9% state that the Tsunami has no

ndex
r disapprove of the Joint Mechanism/P-TOMS, 38.2% of Sri Mechanism while 33.2% of Sri Lankans approve. From an of the Tamil (92.6%), Muslim (75.4%) and Up-Country prove the Joint Mechanism whereas the Sinhala (46.3%) of Sri Lankans have no opinion with regard to the Joint
disagree with the statement that the Joint Mechanism permanent peace, 38.4% of Sri Lankans disagree with the erspective, a majority of the Sinhala (45.2%) community A majority of the Tamil (82%), Muslim (59.3%) and Up- nities agree that the Joint Mechanism would be a stepping ef. Page 40)
inion with regard to the Government’s commitment to a e tsunami relief in the Northeast (Genuine desire for , International pressure-33.2%, Because the Government enefits- 28%, To build goodwill to restart the peace talks- ity of the Muslim (47%) and Up- Country Tamil (37.1%) Government is committed to distribute tsunami relief for effective tsunami relief. However, a majority of the 5.7%) communities believe that it is the international
that that the LTTE is committed to a Joint Mechanism e financial benefits. This opinion is seen across the Sinhala communities. A majority of the Tamil (59.4%) and Up- unities believe that the LTTE is committed to a Joint ine desire for effective tsunami relief. (Ref. Page 42)
e Sri Lanka Development Forum, a majority of Sri Lankans e positive impact on the Sri Lankan economy. This opinion l the ethnic groups (Sinhala- 54.5%, Tamil- 52.8%, Muslim- %).(Ref. Page 43)
ka Development Forum will have a positive impact on the seen across the Tamil (66%), Muslim (69%) and the Up- unities. However, the Sinhala community has a mixed , Negative impact- 10.1%, No impact- 20.4%, No opinion-
hat the provocation by some Tamil extremists backed by of the recent tensions in Trincomalee. From an ethnic e Sinhala (48.2%) community support this opinion. A uslim (54.5%) and Up-Country Tamil (35.4%) communities e in an unauthorized place in the Trincomalee town is the (Ref. Page 45)
creased or decreased the likelihood of war, 49.1% state ihood of war, while 19.1% state that it has increased the that the Tsunami has no impact on the likelihood of war.
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The opinion that the likelihood of war has decrease across all the ethnic groups (Sinhala – 44.2%, Tamil – 75 country Tamil -67.1%). (Ref. Page 46)
♦ When asked why the likelihood of war has decreased, 4 the Government and the LTTE are affected badly by th state that it is because the tsunami affected the peop because the LTTE is heavily affected by the tsunam majority of the Tamil (82.7%), Muslim (58.3%) a communities believe that the likelihood of war has affected the people so badly. A majority of the Sinhala the likelihood of war has decreased because both the affected badly by the tsunami disaster. (Ref. Page 47)
For further information please
Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Ran
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternat
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@d Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://ww

ndex
d of war has decreased as a result of Tsunami is seen nhala – 44.2%, Tamil – 75.2%, and Muslim – 55.3% and Up- age 46)
d of war has decreased, 46.3% state that it is because both E are affected badly by the tsunami disaster. Another 35% unami affected the people so badly. 14.5% state that it is affected by the tsunami. From an ethnic perspective, a 7%), Muslim (58.3%) and Up-Country Tamil (86.1%) likelihood of war has decreased because the tsunami A majority of the Sinhala (59.6%) community believe that reased because both the Government and the LTTE are isaster. (Ref. Page 47)
rther information please contact:
eep Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator entre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
70472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
5
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Peace Confidence Index (P
May 2001 – June 2005
Important Issues Rating the degree of importance of five national issues out of 10
National Breakdown
9
8.13 8
4.36
3.26
The Economy Law and Order Conflicts betw een
different religious groups
7.2
7
6 ) e r o c s n a e
5
M (
4
3
2
1
0
The peace pr Sri Lan
Ethnic Breakdown
5.85
7.2 National
3.26
4.36
5.84
7.16 3.2
8.56
0 2 4 6 8
(Mean score)
8.13
4.42
6.37
7.94 Up-country Tamil
3.79
4.34
6.17
5.93
6.67 Muslim
3.79 3.34
7.45
5.65
7.61 Tamil
3.07
4.64
6.14
Sinhala

ace Confidence Index (PCI)
May 2001 – June 2005
national issues out of 10 point scale.
kdown
7.2
5.85
tw een ligious s
The peace process in Sri Lanka
The Tsunami Recovery
thnic Breakdown
8.56
The Tsunami Recovery .85
7.2
8.13
The peace process in Sri Lanka
6.37
7.94
Conflicts betw een different religious groups 6.17
.93
6.67
Law and Order
7.45
The Economy 5
7.61
6.14
.84
7.16
8 10
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Solutions At the moment Sri Lanka is experiencing a 'no war, no peace' sit continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final soluti this situation is bad and, therefore the Government and the LTT either through negotiations or war. Please tell me which of the a
National Breakdeown
90
80
76.7
12.6
8.8
0
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution
72.4
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
8.6
5.6
Ethnic Breakdown
7.5
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation of this s is bad and therefo Government and th should go for a per solution through
National
6.2
8.8
No
Co th sh th
Co th sh th
Co th
7.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
%
76.7 8.6
3.3
Up-country Tamil
0.1
8.2
77.2
93.5 3
2.3
Muslim
30.4
46.8 20.4
3
Tamil
1.5
88 7.5
Sinhala

g a 'no war, no peace' situation. Some people say that the
an pursuing a final solution. Others argue that continuation of overnment and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution, se tell me which of the arguments best describes your opinion.
onal Breakdeown
5.6
March '05
June '05
eakdown
88
8.8
9.4 6.2
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through w ar
No response/ Refuse to answ er
No response/ Refuse to answ er
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE 93.5
should go for a permanent solution through w ar
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution
90 100
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At the moment Sri Lanka is experiencing a 'no war, no peace' sit continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final soluti this situation is bad and, therefore the Government and the LTT either through negotiations or war. Please tell me which of the a
Change in opinion of Muslim com
100
90
85.8
80
70
60
%
50
46.8
40
3
30
20.4
20
8.7 10
2.4
0
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation situation is ba therefore, the Go
and the LTTE sh for a permanent through w

g a 'no war, no peace' situation. Some people say that the
an pursuing a final solution. Others argue that continuation of overnment and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution, se tell me which of the arguments best describes your opinion.
pinion of Muslim community
3.1
March '05
June '05
30.4
s d
ent go tion
s
2.4
2.3
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through war
No response/ Refuse to answer
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Confidence I think the Government is committed to find peace through talks
National Breakdown
80
50.2
43.8
May '01 September
'01
69.8 70.2 70
60
53
58
61.8
63.7
59.4
56.7
50.1 53.9 50
44
%
40
31.4
30
23.8 22.5
24.5
20.9
19.1
22.5 2
20
15.1
18.6
11.9
9.8 9.1
12
10
0
January '02 May '02 September
January '03 May '03 '02
Ethnic Breakdown
27.6
National
29.7
28.7
43.6
0 10 20 30 40
%
42.7
27.7
38
Up-country Tamil
28.2
33.9
18.4 Muslim
33.1
22.1
Tamil
42.8 35.1
Sinhala

find peace through talks.
ational Breakdown
.4
50.1
Agree 56.7
53.9
Disagree 48
44
43.5
Breakdown
43.6
53.4
42.7
20.9
19.1
48.4
30.3
24 23
29.7
anuary '03 May '03 September
'03
27.1 22.5 21.6
February '04 June '05
42.7
42.8
Don't know /Not sure
38
Disagree
33.9
Agree
33.1
48.4
35.1
40 50 60
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Government is committed to find peace through talks
Change in opinion of Sinhala and Musli
100
12.7 90
19.9
28.7 80
70
22.3
32.5
%
60
27.7
50
40
30
57.7
43.6
0
March '05 June '05 March '05
Sinhala Mus
Change in opinion of Tamil and Up-Count
26.4
54.8
20
10
100
90
19.2
22.1 22.9
80
70
60
54.4
42.8 41.4
50
40
30
20
35.1 35.7
10
0
March '05 t June '05 March '05
Tamil U

find peace through talks.
of Sinhala and Muslim community
12.7
18.4
54.8
48.4
March '05 June '05
Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
32.5
33.1
Disagree
Agree
f Tamil and Up-Country Tamil community
22.9
38
35.7 33.9
March '05 June '05
Up-Country Tamil
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
41.4
Agree
28.2
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Government is fully capable of finding peace through
National Breakdown
60
56.6
50
48
40
%
30
20
19.9
19.4
10
0
Agree Disagree
Ethnic Breakdown
32.7 National
19.4
35.6
45.6
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
48
18.9
42.6 Up-country Tamil
25
32.4
13.7 Muslim
16.4
21.6 Tamil
23
5
Sinhala

of finding peace through talks.
onal Breakdown
23.5
19.4
March '05
June '05
Ethnic Breakdown
45.6
32.7
agree Don't know /Not sure
48
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
5.6
42.6
40 50 60 70 80 %
69.9
55.4
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.
National Breakdown
80
70
63.5
68.5
60
50.6
53.2
50
42.7
45.7
45.7 %
40
32.9
39.5 38.2 39.8
38.9
30
22.2 27.3 20
15.8 17.3
12.9
9.8
25.7
27.5 28.3
29.3
29
19.7
10
0
May '01 September
'01
Ethnic Breakdown
5.2
January '02 May '02 September
'02
January '03 M
36.6 National
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
%
46.2 17.2
38.8 Up-country Tamil
7.6
53.7
30.6 Muslim
31.4
38
20.2 Tamil
3.6
39.4 Sinhala
55.4

ace through talks.
National Breakdown
50.3
29.3
19.7
Agree
Disagree
39.8
38.9
45.7 44.9
47.2
37.8 40.2
50.1
46.2
29
25.7
20.5
18.2
ber January '03 May '03 September
'03
Ethnic Breakdown
76.2
22.5 21.4 21.1
17.2
February '04 June '05
46.2
50 60 70 80 90
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
53.7
Agree
55.4
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.
Change in opinion of Tamil, Muslim and Up
100
90
20.2
76.2
13.7
18.1
3.8
30.6 80
3.6
70
31.4
0
June'05 March '05 June '05 March '05
Tamil Muslim
31.5
60
%
50
40
82.5
30
38
50.4
20
10

ace through talks.
amil, Muslim and Up-Country Tamil communities
18.1
38.8
50.4
20.3
14.5
31.5
7.6
65.2
53.7
5 March '05 June '05 March '05
Muslim Up-Country Tamil
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
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Page 22
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is fully capable of finding peace through talks.
National Breakdown
37.4
29
Ethnic Breakdown
26.4
37.4
National
29
33.6
44.5
Up-country Tamil
7.9
47.7
27.6
Muslim
20.1
39.8
33.8
0 10 20 30 %
40 50
52
23.8
Tamil
8.2
Sinhala

g peace through talks.
tional Breakdown
33.6
29
Agree
Disagree
Don't know /Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
37.4
.6
44.5
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree 47.7
Agree
52.3
68
39.8
.8
40 50 60 70 80
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is fully capable of finding peace through talks.
Change in opinion of Tamil c
90
79.8 80
70
68
60
50 %
40
30
20
10
8.2 3.8
0
Agree Disagree

g peace through talks.
in opinion of Tamil community
8
23.8
16.4
8.2
Disagree Don't know /Not sure
March '05
June '05
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Page 24
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Compared to the situation of the peace process a year ago, how present, in approaching a final settlement to the ethnic conflict ?
National Breakdown
16.6
24.6
27.7
Ethnic Breakdow
16.6
National
24.6
27.7
24.9
19.5
18.7
26
25.8
%
31.1
7 Up-country Tamil
29.9
38.1
7.4
Muslim
16
21.2
11
Tamil
17.8
Sinhala
29.5
0 10 20 30 40

process a year ago, how close do you think the country is, at t to the ethnic conflict ?
nal Breakdown
31.1
27.7
Very close
Remains the same
Not close at all
Don't know /Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
6
27.7
9
6
5.8
30 40 50 60 %
31.1
29.5
Don't know /Not sure
Not close at all 29.9
38.1
Remains the same
Very close
55.4
51.7
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Page 25
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) Some people say that the CFA has brought many benefits to ord CFA has not yielded any benefits to them. In your opinion have S not ?
National Breakdown
7.9
23.3
68
Ethnic Breakdown
7.9
National
23.3
8.6
65.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
68.8
3
Up country Tamils
5
6.6 Muslim
16.4
25.6
77
5.6
Tamil
18
76.4
Sinhala

ght many benefits to ordinary citizens while others say that the m. In your opinion have Sri Lankans benefited from the CFA or
Breakdown
68.8
Yes, they have benefited
No, they have not benefited
Don't know /Not sure
kdown
68.8
65.8
60 70 80 90 100
Don't know /Not sure
92
No, they have not benefited
77
Yes, they have benefited
76.4
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Some people say that the CFA has brought many benefits to ord CFA has not yielded any benefits to them. In your opinion have S not ?
Change in opinion of all ethnic
100
8.6
5.6
90
15.5
14.9
6.6
10.1
18
16.4
80
25.6
11.3
22.6 70
60
%
50
40
77
84.4 76.4
73.8
30
65.8
61.9
20
10
0
June '05 March '05 June '05 March '05 June '05 March 05
Sinhala Tamil Muslim

ght many benefits to ordinary citizens while others say that the m. In your opinion have Sri Lankans benefited from the CFA or
opinion of all ethnic groups
6.6
10.1
77
3 1.9 5
16.4
5.5
24.5
June '05 March 05' June '05 March '05
Muslim Up country Tamils
Don't know /Not sure
No, they have not benefited
92 84.4
Yes, they have benefited 73.6
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Page 27
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please tell me the most important benefits of the CFA.
National Breakdown
80
70
67.7
60
56.9
50
48
%
40
37.6
30
20
10
0
Peaceful
Ending of killing Ending of environment in the
destruction country
Ethnic Breakdown
57.5
Freedom of movement
37.6
48
63 37.8
56.9
53.3 22.7
46.2
32.2
34.8
54.8
33.4 8.9
59.6
57.1
38.5 18
National
67.7
31.8 19.5
Up-country Tamil
76.1
47.5 19
Muslim
36.9 34.5
Tamil
38.2 15.3
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
81
8

fits of the CFA.
Breakdown
67.7
18
38.5
Freedom of movement
Development Feeling of security
akdown
7.5
67.7
.9
.1
0 70 80 90
Feeling of security
76.1
Development
Freedom of movement 81.8
Ending of destruction
84.1
Ending of killing
59.6
Peaceful environment in the country
63
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Page 28
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the Government's commitment to th
National Breakdown
60
50
48.2
40
%
30
26.1
20
11.7
10
0
Very satisfied Somew hat satisfied Not satisfied Not sa
Ethnic Breakdown
12.4
3.7
National
11.7
48.2
26.1
Up-country Tamil
6.4
56.3
27.1
1
Muslim
16.7
56.8
14.1
2.
Tamil
4.5
53.1
30.8
4.1
Sinhala
46.3
26.6
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
%

ent's commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement ?
reakdown
.1
3.7
10.3
tisfied Not satisfied at all No opinion
eakdown
26.6
3.7
10.3
26.1
1
11.4
2.9
8.8
4.1
10.6
80% 100%
Very satisfied 2.8
7.5
27.1
Somew hat satisfied
Not satisfied
14.1
Not satisfied at all
No opinion
30.8
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the LTTE commitment to the Ceasef
National Breakdown
40
35.4 35
30
2
25
%
20
5.1
0
Very satisfied Somew hat satisfied Not satisfied Not satis
Ethnic Breakdown
32
17.4
15
10
5
National
5.1
17.4
35.4
28.9
0.6
9
40.7
36
%
2
Up-country Tamil
17.2
61.7
8.7
4.4
Muslim
8.2
38.9
30
Tamil
48.5
9.5
Sinhala
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 9

mmitment to the Ceasefire Agreement ?
reakdown
.4
28.9
13.3
tisfied Not satisfied at all No opinion
eakdown
9.5
13.3
28.9
9.6
18.6
30
7.8
13.7
70% 80% 90% 100%
2.8
Very satisfied
8.7
Somew hat satisfied
Not satisfied
4.4
Not satisfied at all
No opinion
2.2
36
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) What is your opinion of the need of a monitoring mission for th
National Breakdown
50
46.6
45
40
35
30
%
25
19.6 20
15
10
6.9
7.5
5
0
Is essential and Will
Not Essential but have a positive
w ill have a positive impact
impact
Ethnic Breakdown
35.7
Will have no impact Will have a
negative impact
10.8
3.1
8.5 National
7.5 6.9
19.6
12.8
9.4
10.2
8
%
46.6 5 0 Up Country Tamils
0
3.7
5.5
1.1
6.1
3.7
0.9
23.8
85.9
3.4
Muslim
2.8
5.8
80.9
0.6 Tamil
3.6
88.1
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

MM)
onitoring mission for the CFA to suceed ?
kdown
7.5
10.8
Will have a negative impact
8.5
Absolutely undesirable
Don't know /Not sure
88.1
Don't know /Not sure
Absolutely undesirable
85.9
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
80.9
Not Essential but w ill have a positive impact
Is essential and Will have a positive impact
80 90 100
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its monito
National Breakdown
50
45
43.6
40
33.1
28.9
26.8
May '02 September
'02
3
35
33.2
32.8
32.1 30.3
27 30.1
26.9
23.6
2
15.7
31.7
31.3
%
30
27.4 27.6
18.1
Ethnic Breakdown
14.3
24 25
22.5
22.8
21.3
19.6
0
21.9
14.6
21.4 20
18 17.8
15
10
5
January '03
May '03 September
'03
30.6
National
44.4 25
33.1
Up Country Tamils
7.8
59.2
21.2 Muslim
28.5
50.3
20.5 Tamil
7
72.5
32.8 Sinhala
53
0 10 20 30 %
40 50 60 70 80

is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.
onal Breakdown
24.8
44.4
1
43.6
36.4
31.3
27.7
30.6
18.1
43.3
Agree
Disagree
Don't know /Not sure
akdown
72.5
37
1
26.9
23.6
27.1
21.9
'03 September
'03
24.4
25
21.4
29
February '04
June '05
Don't know /Not sure
59.2
Disagree
Agree
60 70 80
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Page 32
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its monito
National Breakdown
50
45
40
40.7
35
34.
28.7
20.3
September '02
33 30
30.5 %
30.6 28 26.6
24
29.4 29.4
25
24.8
24.3 23.8
25.7
22.4
25.6
21.1
22.8
19.
Ethnic Breakdown
14.2
26
0
22.4 20
19.1
15
10
5
January '03
May '03 September
'03
32
National
43.9
24.1
41.9 Up Country Tamils
4.9
53.2
22.6
Muslim
30.8
46.6
21.3
Tamil
9.6
69
34
Sinhala
51.9
0 10 20 30 %
40 50 60 70

is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.
nal Breakdown
25.6
22.8
19.7
43.9 40.7
Agree
34.8 35.1
Disagree
22.4
19.1
Don't know /Not sure
kdown
69.1
40.5
33
32
September '03
26
28.2
30 29.4
23.5
24.1
February '04
June '05
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree 53.2
Agree
.6
51.9
0 60 70 80
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Page 33
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Foreign Involvement What is your opinion of the need for an international third party solve the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka ?
National Breakdown
50
45
42.9
40
35
30
%
25
20
16.8
15
10
6.7
5
4.5
0
Is essential and
Not essential and w ill add a positive
w ill add a positive impact
impact
Ethnic Breakdown
34.1
Will have no impact Will have a
negative impact
9.2
20
National
4.5
6.7
16.8
42.9
12.1 1.6 Up-country Tamils
0.1
3.5
5.5
3.5
8.2
10.7
22.7
5.4
7.1
19.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 %
77.2
10.6 5.5 Muslim
2.6
4.6
73.2
3.6
9.4
Tamil
0
6.2
72.6
Sinhala

international third party as a facilitator to the negotiations to
akdown
4.5
20
Will have a negative impact
9.2
Absolutely undesirable
Don't know /Not sure
wn
72.6
Don't know /Not sure
Absolutely undesirable
77.2
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Not essential and w ill add a 73.2
positive impact
Is essential and w ill add a positive impact
70 80 90
Page 31

Page 34
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state the most suitable country that should play the role o
National Breakdown
10.5
41.8
25
Ethnic Breakdown
6
41.8
National
25 22.7 10.5
31.3
Up-country Tamil
5
1.5
40
Muslim
15.6
33.4 11
18.2
Tamil
9.3
47.5
Sinhala
9.8
30.6
12.1
0 10 20 30 %
40 50 60

hat should play the role of facilitator in the peace process.
Breakdown
.5
22.7
Japan
Norw ay
United States of America
India
kdown
41.8
66.5
50 60 70
India
62.2
United States of America
Norw ay
Japan
47.5
Page 32

Page 35
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state the most suitable country that should play the role o
Change in opinion of Muslim commu
60
52.5
50
40
%
33.4
30
20
17.5 15.6
11
10
2.5
0
Japan Norw ay United States of Ameri

hat should play the role of facilitator in the peace process.
ion of Muslim community
15.6
June '05 Muslim
March '05 Muslim
40
17.5
27.5
United States of America India
Page 33

Page 36
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The Norwegian government has been officially facilitating peace Please tell me your level of satisfaction with the Norwegian role somewhat satisfied or not satisfied at all on the Norwegian role
National Breakdown
8.5
31.2
30
30.1
Ethnic Breakdown
National
8.5
30.1
30.1
31.2
38.8
2.3
25.7
36.4
35.5
%
5.6
24.
Up-country Tamil
30
39.8
Muslim
18.2
42.7
16.9
22.3
2.9
Tamil
49.7
Sinhala
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

fficially facilitating peace negotiations since November 2001.
ith the Norwegian role as facilitator. Are you very satisfied, l on the Norwegian role as facilitator ?
eakdown
30.1
Very satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Not satisfied at all
Don't know /Not sure
akdown
31.2
5.6
2.9
9.7
35.5
Very satisfied 24.6
Somew hat satisfied
Not satisfied at all
Don't know /Not sure 16.9
22.3
8.6
70% 80% 90% 100%
Page 34

Page 37
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The Norwegian government has been officially facilitating peace Please tell me your level of satisfaction with the Norwegian role somewhat satisfied or not satisfied at all on the Norwegian role
Change in opinion of Muslim commu
60
49.6 50
42.7
40
%
30
27.6
20
18.2
16.9
12.6
10
0
Very satisfied Somew hat satisfied Not satisfied at all

fficially facilitating peace negotiations since November 2001.
ith the Norwegian role as facilitator. Are you very satisfied, l on the Norwegian role as facilitator ?
on of Muslim community
12.6
10.2
March '05 Muslim
June '05 Muslim
22.3
16.9
Not satisfied at all Don't know /Not sure
Page 35

Page 38
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state if you approve or disapprove of Norway continuing
National Breakdown
34.1
28.6
37.3
Ethnic Breakdown
15.3
34.1 National
37.3 28.6
25.1 Up-country Tamil
3.2
71.7
23.7 Muslim
22.8
53.4
7.1 Tamil
1.9
39.3 Sinhala
45.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 %
60 70 80

e of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace process.
Breakdown
28.6
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know / Not sure
akdown
3.4
Don’t know / Not sure
71.7
Disapprove
Approve
91
60 70 80 90 100
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Page 39
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state if you approve or disapprove of Norway continuing
Change in opinion of Muslim c
100
90
80
71.1 70
%
60
53.4
50
40
30
22.8
20
17.2
10
0
Approve Disapprove

e of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace process.
opinion of Muslim community
11.7
March '05 Muslim
June '05 Muslim
22.8 23.7
isapprove Don’t know / Not sure
Page 37

Page 40
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What is your opinion of the need for India's involvement in the S
National Breakdown
45
39.8 40
35
30
%
25
20
19.6
15
10
6 5.7 5
0
Is essential and w ill
Not essential but
Will have no impact Will have a have a positive
w ill have a positive
negative impact impact
impact
Ethnic Breakdown
21.4
National
5.7
7.5
6
19.6
39.8
Up Country Tamils
2.7
6.3
8.9
7.3
10.3
64.5
2.1
3.6
8.7
Muslim
0.7
6.7
7
9.1
Tamil
5.8 6
9.2
16.6
53.2
24.9
Sinhala
6
7.8
6.5
21.7
33
0 10 20 30 40 %
50 60 70 8

dia's involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process ?
reakdown
5.7
21.4
t Will have a
negative impact
7.5
Absolutely Undesirable
Don't know /Not sure
kdown
3.2
Don't know /Not sure
Absolutely Undesirable
Will have a negative impact
64.5
Will have no impact
78.2
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact
Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
60 70 80 90
Page 38

Page 41
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Joint Mechanism Do you approve or disapprove of the Joint Mechanism ?
National Breakdown
28.6
38.2
Ethnic Breakdown
National
33.2
38.2
28.6
Up-country Tamil
94.1
15.4
Muslim
75.4
Tamil
92.6
Sinhala
19.4
46.3
34.3
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
%

int Mechanism ?
Breakdown
33.2
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
down
28.6
1.6
15.4
2.4
34.3
4.3
9.1
5
80% 100%
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Page 39

Page 42
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Some people say that the Joint Mechanism would be a stepping s agree or disagree ?
National Breakdown
32.7
38.4
Ethnic Breakdown
17.3
32.7 National
38.4 28.8
7 Up-country Tamil
5.6
22.4 Muslim
18.3
37.5
45.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
59.3
9.7 Tamil
8.4
Sinhala

sm would be a stepping stone for permanent peace. Do you
l Breakdown
28.8
.4
Agree
Disagree
No Opinion
Ethnic Breakdown
82
No Opinion
87.4
Disagree
Agree
45.2
50 60 70 80 90 100 %
59.3
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Why do you think the Government is committed to a joint mech the Northeast ?
National Breakdown
35
22.9
Genuine desire for effective tsunami relief
33.2
30
28
25
20
%
15
10
5
0
International pressure Because the
Government w ould receive more financial benefits
Ethnic Breakdown
19.2
To b restar
4.7
10.9 National
28
5.9
10.3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
%
33.2 22.9
6.3
11.2 Up-country Tamil
22.8 22.5
37.1
1.2
10.7 Muslim
28.7 12.4
2
15.1 Tamil
21.2
32.1 29.6
Sinhala
29.1
35.7

ommitted to a joint mechanism to distribute Tsunami Relief in
al Breakdown
28
10.9
4.7
ause the ment w ould more financial enefits
To build goodw ill to restart the peace talks
Other
reakdown
33.2
47
35 40 45 50
Other
To build goodw ill to restart 37.1
the peace talks
Because the Government w ould receive more financial benefits
International pressure
32.1
Genuine desire for effective tsunami relief
35.7
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Why do you think the LTTE is committed to a joint mechanism Northeast ?
National Breakdown
70
60
57.4
50
40
%
30
20
13
11.9
9.7 10
0
Genuine desire for effective tsunami relief
Ethnic Breakdown
3.7
International pressure Because the LTTE
w ould receive more financial benefits
To build goo restart the pe
8
9.7 National
9.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
57.4
6.4
11.9 13
9.5 9.7 Up-country Tamil
8.5
12.6
66.8 13.3
59.8
0
11 Muslim
56.5 8.9
23.7
0
33.2 Tamil
3.6 3.7
59.4
Sinhala

ed to a joint mechanism to distribute Tsunami Relief in the
Breakdown
9.7
8
LTTE e more nefits
To build goodw ill to restart the peace talks
Other
kdown
57.4
59.4
60 70 80
Other
To build goodw ill to restart the peace talks
59.8
Because the LTTE w ould receive more financial benefits 56.5
International pressure
Genuine desire for effective tsunami relief
66.8
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sri Lanka Development Forum [16th -17th May 2005] In your opinion what would be the impact of this development fo
National Breakdown
25.9
5
11.8
Ethnic Breakdown
25.9
National
5
11.8
27.4 5.3
54.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
57.3
14.8
Up-country Tamil
0.6
5.5
12.8
7
18.5
Muslim
1
6.7
73.9
26.1
Tamil
10.1 11
52.8
Sinhala

16th -17th May 2005]
ct of this development forum on the Sri Lankan economy ?
Breakdown
57.3
Positive Impact
No Impact
Negative Impact
No Opinion
kdown
57.3
79.1
54.5
60 70 80 90
No Opinion
Negative Impact
No Impact
73.9
Positive Impact
.8
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
In your opinion what would be the impact of this development fo
National Breakdown
32.1
8.6
18
Ethnic Breakdown
32.1
National
8.6
18
41.3
21.9
Up-country Tamil
0.6
7
18.2
Muslim
2.5
10.3
22
Tamil
4.6
7.4
35 10.1
20.4
34.6
0 10 20 30 %
40 50 60
6
Sinhala

ct of this development forum on the Sri Lankan peace process ?
l Breakdown
41.3
Positive Impact
No Impact
Negative Impact
No Opinion
eakdown
66
No Opinion
70.5
Negative Impact
No Impact
Positive Impact
69
50 60 70 80
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Tensions in Trincomalee In your opinion what is the cause of these tensions ?
National Breakdown
21.2
10.8
3.9 4
40
Erecting a Buddha statue in an unauthorised place in the Trincomalee tow n
36.9
35
30
25
%
20
15
10
5
0
Protesting
Manner in w hich
Provocation by
Provocation by against the
the new statue
some Sinhala
some Tamil Buddha statue in
w as placed
extremists
extremists the Trincomalee
backed by
backed by the tow n
sections of the
LTTE security forces and Buddhist organisations
Ethnic Breakdown
Don't know / Not
1.4
21.8
National
4 3.9
10.8
21.2
36.9
Provocation by J
Up-country Tamil
0
10
17.8
7.1
9.7
20
Provocation by s backed by the LT
Provocation by s extremists backe security forces a organisations Manner in w hich placed
Protesting agains in the Trincomale 56
0.2
25.7
Erecting a Buddh
0.4
2.2
11.6 11.7
48.2
unauthorised pla tow n
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
35.4
Muslim
1
1.9
7.7
10.1
6.8
17.9
54.5
Tamil
0.7
5.9
7.1
3.7
9.4
17.2
Sinhala

se tensions ?
kdown
36.9
1.4
21.8
n by hala sts by f the rces hist tions
Provocation by
Provocation by
Don't know / Not some Tamil
JVP backed
sure extremists
groups backed by the LTTE
Don't know / Not sure
Provocation by JVP backed groups
Provocation by some Tamil extremists backed by the LTTE
Provocation by some Sinhala extremists backed by sections of the security forces and Buddhist organisations Manner in w hich the new statue w as placed
Protesting against the Buddha statue in the Trincomalee tow n
Erecting a Buddha statue in an unauthorised place in the Trincomalee tow n
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Tsunami Has the Tsunami increased or decreased the likelihood of war ?
National Breakdown
12.9
19.1
18.9
49.1
Ethnic Breakdown
12.9
National
18.9
14.2
20.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
49.1 19.1
10.5
Up-country Tamil
12.7
21.5
44.2
67.1 9.7
6
Muslim
8.4
55.3 30.2
9.5
Tamil
8.9
7 6.4
Sinhala

d the likelihood of war ?
akdown
19.1
49.1
Increased
Decreased
No impact
Don't know /Not sure
75.2
Don't know /Not sure
67.1
No impact
Decreased
55.3
Increased
60 70 80
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Why has the likelihood of war decreased ?
National Breakdown
50
14.5
Because the GOSL armed forces are heavily affected by the Tsunami disaster
46.3
45
40
35 35
%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0.3 0
Ethnic Breakdown
0
Because the
Be LTTE is heavily
i affected by the Tsunami disaster
Both the Government and the LTTE are affected badly by the Tsunami
Because the Tsunami affected the people so badly
1.9 2.1 National
35
1.6 1.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
%
46.3 14.5 0.3
1.1
2.6 Up-country Tamil
9.7
86.1
0 0.5
7.4 2 Muslim
29
58.3
3.4 0
0.5
5.5 Tamil
9.2
82.7
0.4
1.7
Sinhala
17.5
59.6 20.1

ased ?
nal Breakdown
35
2.1 1.9
Because the Tsunami affected the people so badly
Because of the international pressure
Don't know /Not sure
wn
82.7
Don't know /Not sure
86.1
Because of the international pressure
Because the Tsunami affected the people so badly
Both the Government and the LTTE are affected badly by the Tsunami
Because the LTTE is heavily affected by the Tsunami disaster
Because the GOSL armed forces are heavily affected by the Tsunami disaster
80 90 100
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Page 50
Peace Confidencé Index (P.
June 2005
OPINION OF "
Socia InCiCatOr
 

Cl)
SUNAMI VICTIMS

Page 51
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
This section of the report presents the top Confidence Index (PCI) survey carried out exclus areas. Due to logistical and ethical reasons PCI M Tsunami affected areas. However, after six mo context of relative normalcy, SI decided to ex Tsunami affected areas in order to capture th people on issues related to Tsunami recovery/re process.
The survey was conducted amongst 330 individu the tsunami affected areas in Galle, Matara, Hamb and Trincomalee. Interviews were conduc questionnaire that was administered through face with regard to gender, ethnicity and age (O consideration when selecting the sample.

port presents the top-line results of the Peace survey carried out exclusively in the tsunami affected nd ethical reasons PCI March 2005 did not cove the However, after six months of the disaster, in the malcy, SI decided to extend it PCI survey to the in order to capture the opinions of the affected to Tsunami recovery/reconstruction and the peace
ed amongst 330 individuals randomly selected from as in Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Amparai, Batticaloa erviews were conducted using a structured dministered through face to face interviews. Equality , ethnicity and age (Over 18) was taken into cting the sample.
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED
30TH JUNE 2005
♦ When asked if they approve or disapprove of the J affected people approve of it. This opinion is see (95.1%) and Muslim (71.6%) communities. A ma (49.5%) have no opinion in this regard. (Ref. Page 51
♦ When asked if the tsunami has increased or decre
state that it has decreased the likelihood of war. increased the likelihood of war. From an ethnic pe (67.8%) and Muslim (48.7%) communities believe th likelihood of war. The Sinhala community has a (Increased- 24.8%, Decreased- 34.7%, No impac 24.8%). (Ref. Page 52)
♦ 55% of tsunami affected people believe the likeliho the tsunami affected the people so badly. This op Tamil (83.3%) and Muslim (56.9%) communities. 29 war has decreased because both the Government by the tsunami. A majority of the Sinhala (66.7%) (Ref. Page 53)
♦ 54.4% express satisfaction with the way the Gov
relief. This opinion is seen across a majority of the communities. A majority of the Sinhala (52.5%) c with the way the Government is handling the tsuna
♦ 75.4% express satisfaction with the way the NGO This opinion is seen across a majority of all the e Tamil (93.3%) and Muslim (72.3%) communities. (Re
♦ 45.9% don’t know or are not sure of the way the L
Organization (TRO) are handling the tsunami reli majority of the Muslim (61.1%) community do not of Sinhala (61.3%) community are not satisfied at a community is very satisfied. (Ref. Page 56)
♦ When asked to rate five national issues according t a 10 point scale, housing was rated the highest (8 the ethnic groups (Sinhala- 8.3, Tamil- 9.24, and Mu
♦ 69.7% of Sri Lankans state that they have not be
distributing tsunami relief. This opinion is seen (86.8%) and Muslim (72.3%) communities. The opinion in this regard (Yes, I have been discrimin discriminated-43.3%). (Ref. Page 58)
♦ 69.1% of Sri Lankans state that they have not be distributing tsunami relief. This opinion is seen a (Sinhala- 84.3%, Tamil- 51.1% and Muslim- 67.2%). (R

ndex
HE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
2005
TO 30TH JUNE 2005
ve or disapprove of the Joint Mechanism, 54.2% of tsunami f it. This opinion is seen across a majority of the Tamil %) communities. A majority of the Sinhala community
this regard. (Ref. Page 51)
i has increased or decreased the likelihood of war, 48.8% the likelihood of war. 22.7% state that the tsunami has f war. From an ethnic perspective, a majority of the Tamil ) communities believe that the tsunami has decreased the inhala community has a divided opinion in this regard ased- 34.7%, No impact-15.7%, Don’t know/Not sure-
eople believe the likelihood of war has decreased because eople so badly. This opinion is seen across a majority of (56.9%) communities. 29.4% believe that the likelihood of e both the Government and the LTTE are affected badly ty of the Sinhala (66.7%) community support this opinion.
with the way the Government is handling the tsunami across a majority of the Tamil (59.6%) and Muslim (57.7%) of the Sinhala (52.5%) community express dissatisfaction
ent is handling the tsunami relief.(Ref. Page 54)
with the way the NGO’s are handling the tsunami relief. s a majority of all the ethnic groups, the Sinhala (65.3%), (72.3%) communities. (Ref. Page 55)
ot sure of the way the LTTE and the Tamil Rehabilitation andling the tsunami relief. From an ethnic perspective, a .1%) community do not know or are not sure. A majority nity are not satisfied at all while a majority of Tamil (42%)
. (Ref. Page 56)
ational issues according to the degree of importance, using was rated the highest (8.94). This opinion seen across all
8.3, Tamil- 9.24, and Muslim- 9.34). (Ref. Page 57)
e that they have not been ethnically discriminated when . This opinion is seen across a majority of the Sinhala 3%) communities. The Tamil community has a divided s, I have been discriminated-42.2%, No, I have not been f. Page 58)
e that they have not been politically discriminated when . This opinion is seen across all the ethnic communities 1% and Muslim- 67.2%). (Ref. Page 59)
5
15TH J
UNE
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Page 53
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ 61.5% of Sri Lankans state that they have not be
distributing tsunami relief. This opinion is seen (67.8%) and Muslim (68.9%) communities. The opinion in this regard (Yes, I have been discrimin discriminated-43.3%). (Ref. Page 60)
♦ 75.5% agree with the Government’s decision to i opinion is seen across a majority of the Sinhala (7 (65.2%) communities. (Ref. Page 61)
♦ 51.1% of tsunami affected people believe that the d are based on scientific reasons. This opinion is see (61.9%), Tamil (57.5%) and Muslim (35.7%) commun
For further information please co
Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Ranas
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternativ
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@diam Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www

ndex
e that they have not been regionally discriminated when . This opinion is seen across a majority of the Sinhala 9%) communities. The Tamil community has a divided s, I have been discriminated-42.2%, No, I have not been f. Page 60)
vernment’s decision to implement the buffer zones. This ajority of the Sinhala (78.1%), Tamil (85.9%) and Muslim f. Page 61)
people believe that the differences of the two buffer zones sons. This opinion is seen across a majority of the Sinhala
Muslim (35.7%) communities. (Ref. Page 62)
her information please contact:
p Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator ntre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 70475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
5
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Peace Confidence Index (PCI) – Tsu
Tsunami Do you approve or disapprove of the Joint Mechanism ?
National Breakdown
25.3
20.6
Ethnic Breakdwon
11.4
25.3
National
20.6
49.5
0 20 40 60 80
%
54.2
11.9
Muslim
16.4
39
71.6
4.9
Tamil
0
Sinhala

idence Index (PCI) – Tsunami Edition
Joint Mechanism ?
kdown
54.2
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
kdwon
95.1
No Opinion
71.6
Disapprove
Approve
80 100
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Has the Tsunami increased or decreased the likelihood of war
National Breakdown
15.5
22.7
13
48.8
Ethnic Breakdown
15.5
National
13
24.8
24.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
48.8
15.7
22.7
13.4
Muslim
8.4
34.7
48.7 29.4
5.6
Tamil
15.6
67.8 11.1
Sinhala

ed the likelihood of war ?
l Breakdown
22.7
.8
Increased
Decreased
No impact
Don't know / Not sure
eakdown
48.8
67.8
50 60 70 80
Don't know / Not sure
No impact
48.7
Decreased
Increased
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Page 56
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Why has the likelihood of war decreased ?
National Breakdown
60
1.3
Because the GOSL armed forces are heavily affected by the tsunami disaster
55
50
40
0
29.4 30
20
10
5
Because the LTTE is heavily affected by the tsunami disaster
Both the Government and the LTTE are affected badly by the Tsunami
Because the tsunami affected the people so badly
%
Ethnic Breakdown
0
Beca inte pr
1.9
3.1
4.4
National
55
5
29.4
1.3
0
1.7
Muslim
1.7
56.9 32.8
1.7
5.2
1.7
6.7 6.7 Tamil
0
83.3
0
1.7
4.8
0
4.8
Sinhala
11.9
11.9
66.7
0 20 40 60 80 100
%

nal Breakdown
55
3.1
4.4
1.9
Because the sunami affected the people so badly
Because of the
Other Don't know /not international
sure pressure
eakdown
83.3
80 100
Don't know /not sure
Other
Because of the international pressure
Because the tsunami affected the people so badly
Both the Government and the LTTE are affected badly by the Tsunami
Because the LTTE is heavily affected by the tsunami disaster
Because the GOSL armed forces are heavily affected by the tsunami disaster
Page 53

Page 57
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the way the Government is handling the
National Breakdown
10.1
43.7
1.8
Ethnic Breakdown
1.8
National
43.
0
5.8
0 10 20 %
30 40
44 10.1
0.8
Muslim
41.5
42.4 15.3
5.6
Tamil
34.8
9
Sinhala
41.7

vernment is handling the Tsunami relief ?
nal Breakdown
10.1
44.3
Very satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Not satisfied at all
Don't know /Not sure
hnic Breakdown
43.7
44.3
52.5 41.7
30 40 50 60
Don't know /Not sure
Not satisfied at all 41.5
42.4
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
34.8
50.6
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Page 58
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the way the NGOs are handling the Tsu
National Breakdown
31.5
43.9
1.8 22.7
Ethnic Breakdown
1.8
National
22.7
1.7
14.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
43.9 31.5
1.7
Muslim
26.1
45.4 26.9
2.2
Tamil
4.4
33.3
33.1
50.4
60
Sinhala

Os are handling the Tsunami relief ?
eakdown
31.5
Very satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Not satisfied at all
Don't know /Not sure
kdown
43.9
60
50.4
50 60 70
Don't know /Not sure
45.4
Not satisfied at all
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
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Page 59
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the way the LTTE and the Tamil Rehabi the Tsunami relief?
National Breakdown
19.6
45.9
22
Ethnic Breakdown
3.2
45.9
National
12.4
22
19.6
35.5
61.3 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
61.1
Muslim
8.9
26.7
3.3
34.1
Tamil
3.4
20.5
42
Sinhala

TE and the Tamil Rehabilitation Organization (TRO) are handling
eakdown
19.6
12.4
22
Very satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Not satisfied at all
Don't know /Not sure
wn
45.9
61.3
50 60 70
Don't know /Not sure
61.1
Not satisfied at all
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
Page 56

Page 60
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Rating the degree of importance of five national issues out of 10 po
National Breakdown
10
8.94 9
8
7 ) e r o c s n a e M
6
5
4.99
(
4
3
3.12
2.9
2
1
0
Housing Livelihood Healthcare Education facil
Ethnic Breakdown
5.36 3
National
2.9
3.12
4.99
7.2 3.42 1.15
2.65
8.3
0 2 4 6 8
(Mean score)
8.
3.68 3.28
Muslim
3.78 3.51
5.41
5.13 2.09
Tamil
3.22
4.07
4.11
Sinhala
5.23

tional issues out of 10 point scale.
l Breakdown
2.9
5.36
3
re Education facilities Infrustructure
(roads, electricity etc.)
Financial assistance
eakdown
8.3
Financial assistance
8.94
Infrustructure (roads, electricity etc.)
Education facilities
9.34
Healthcare
Livelihood
9.24
Housing 7.2
8 10
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Page 61
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Some people say that the relief has been distributed equally amongs on ethnic, political or regional grounds, while others say it discrimin and regionally. Please tell me how you assess the impartiality of the
Ethnic Discrimination
69.7
6.1
Ethnic Discrimination
6.1
National
69.7
24.2
4.2
Muslim
72.3
23.5
14.4
Tamil
43.3
42.2
1.7
Sinhala
11.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%

istributed equally amongst all the victims without any discrimination
ile others say it discriminate against victims ethnically, politically, ss the impartiality of the relief distribution.
hnic Discrimination
24.2
Yes, I have been discriminated
No, I have not been discriminated
Don't know
iscrimination
69.7
86.8
60 70 80 90 100
Don't know
72.3
No, I have not been discriminated
Yes, I have been discriminated
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Page 62
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Some people say that the relief has been distributed equally amongs on ethnic, political or regional grounds, while others say it discrimin and regionally. Please tell me how you assess the impartiality of the
Political Discrimination
69.1
7.3
Political Discrimination
7.3
National
12.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
%
6
3.3
23.6
5
Muslim
67.
27.7
15.6
Tamil
51.1
33.3
Sinhala

istributed equally amongst all the victims without any discrimination
ile others say it discriminate against victims ethnically, politically, ss the impartiality of the relief distribution.
al Discrimination
23.6 Yes, I have been
discriminated
No, I have not been discriminated
Don't know
al Discrimination
69.1
84.3
50 60 70 80 90
Don't know
67.2
No, I have not been discriminated
Yes, I have been discriminated
51.1
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Page 63
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Some people say that the relief has been distributed equally amongs on ethnic, political or regional grounds, while others say it discrimin and regionally. Please tell me how you assess the impartiality of the
Regional Discrimination
61.5
8.8
Regional Discrimination
8.8
National
61.5
29.7
5
Muslim
68.
26.1
14.4
Tamil
43.3
42.2
8.3
Sinhala
67.8
24
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

istributed equally amongst all the victims without any discrimination
ile others say it discriminate against victims ethnically, politically, ss the impartiality of the relief distribution.
onal Discrimination
29.7
Yes, I have been discriminated
No, I have not been discriminated
Don't know
rimination
61.5
67.8
60 70 80
Don't know
68.9
No, I have not been discriminated
Yes, I have been discriminated
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Page 64
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the Government
National Breakdown
24.5
7
Ethnic Breakdown
24.5 National
78.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
75.5
21.9
34.8 Muslim
65.2
14.1 Tamil
Sinhala

ee with the Government's decision to implement the buffer zones ?
reakdown
75.5
Agree
Disagree
own
75.5
78.1
60 70 80 90 100
Disagree
65.2
Agree
85.9
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Some people say the differences of the two buffer zones are based the risk involved. But another set of people argues that the differen and political grounds. In you opinion, why do you think there is a d
National Breakdown
30.7
8.6
9.6
Ethnic Breakdown
30.7
National
8.6
9.6
57
32.2 4.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 6
%
51.1
1.7
32.2
Muslim
13
19.1
35.7
26.3
Tamil
8.8 7.5
Sinhala

o buffer zones are based on scientific reasons, or on the degree of e argues that the differences are, to discriminate people on regional do you think there is a difference in the two buffer zones?
ional Breakdown
51.1
Scientific reason
Regional discrimination
Political discrimination
Don't know /Not sure
reakdown
61.9
Don't know /Not sure
51.1
Political discrimination
.7
Regional discrimination
Scientific reason
57.5
40 50 60 70
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample distribution in June 2005
DISTRICT
PCI SAMPLE (WEIGHTED)
Colombo 243 Gampaha 208 Kalutara 104 Kandy 120 Matale 41 Nuwara Eliya 62 Galle 92 Hambantota 46 Matara 70 Anuradhapura 68 Polonnaruwa 33 Kurunegala 138 Puttlam 63 Badulla 70 Monaragala 34 Ratnapura 94 Kegalle 75 Ampara 50 Batticoloa 46 Trincomalee 47 Vavuniya 14 Jaffna 82 NATIONAL 1800
Ethnic sample distribution in June 2005
ETHNICITY
PCI SAMPLE (WEIGHTED)
Sinhala 1403 Tamil 191 Muslim 134 Up-country Tamil 71 NATIONAL 1800

Annex
in June 2005
PCI SAMPLE (WEIGHTED)
TSUNAMI SAMPLE (UNWEIGHTED) 243 - 208 - 104 - 120 - 41 - 62 - 92 30 46 60 70 30 68 - 33 - 138 - 63 - 70 - 34 - 94 - 75 - 50 60 46 60 47 90 14 - 82 - 1800 330
in June 2005
PCI SAMPLE (WEIGHTED)
TSUNAMI SAMPLE (UNWEIGHTED) 1403 121 191 90 134 119 71 - 1800 330
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) s in public confidence levels towards the peace process ove be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the February 2004, PCI was conducted bi-monthly, howeve decided to conduct the study quarterly to make the PCI mo
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1800 respondents during each phase of the capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of te undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace pro factors, however the ethnic factor, which is the most im factor that has been accommodated in this model.
The total sample is distributed amongst 22 administrative the Amparai, Batticoloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Jaffna were not covered due to logistical difficulties and method areas affected by the December 26, 2004 Tsunami, were e to ethical and logistical concerns. The sample size approximately equal to the population proportions. Howeve due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling bias sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a distr of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Se primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sam Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected random using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 199 Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
A special questionnaire was developed to administer in the questions related to tsunami issues in the PCI. This questi 330 respondents in the tsunami affected areas of T Humbantota, Matara and Galle. Approximately a 100 sa group, and respondent were selected randomly from the were also selected randomly within the tsunami affected districts.
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a m within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a max GND. Within a given GND the enumerator is advised to s proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand the random selection of households.

nfidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations the peace process over time it is essential that the study al pauses during the study. Hence, from May 2001 to d bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI rly to make the PCI more efficient.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of ring each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to ty within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is ion on the peace process is influenced by a number of which is the most important and influential, is the sole in this model.
ngst 22 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in e, Vavuniya and Jaffna districts the LTTE controlled areas difficulties and methodological concerns. In addition, the 2004 Tsunami, were excluded from the main sample due . The sample size is assigned to each stratum is n proportions. However, some districts are over sampled the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the
r ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit ons of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of
frame.
ped to administer in the tsunami affected areas, using the in the PCI. This questionnaire was administered amongst affected areas of Trincomalee, Batticoloa, Amparai, pproximately a 100 sample was allocated for each ethnic ted randomly from the tsunami affected GNs. These GNs the tsunami affected GN list of each of the above six
work and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample ed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a erator is advised to select a starting point randomly and ndom walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure .
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed t households, thus resulting in the interview-taking place at final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the ho ensuring that each member of the household has an equ PCI sample.
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model do analysis at the same level of precision.

rviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the erview-taking place at every alternative household. As the is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus household has an equal chance of being selected to the
subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. hat the PCI model does not support the regional level on.
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permanent, professional and independent on social and political issues.
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