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Peace Confider
ALSON THIS WAVE,
KADIRGAMARKILLING
JoINT MECHANISM
 

in Poll On Peace
ce Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
SEPTEMBER 2005
Social Indicator

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
EVELO
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
(PCI) T
OP
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX -L
INE
R
ESULTS
IMPORTANT ISSUES
SOLUTIONS
CONFIDENCE
CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT (CFA)
S
RI
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
(SLMM)
F
OREIGN
I
NVOLVEMENT
• P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
KADIRGAMAR KILLING
JOINT MECHANISM
• A
NNEX

01
RNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
02
07
X
(PCI) 11
11
12
14
(CFA) 23
M
ISSION
(SLMM) 29
34
S
39
41
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I
NTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop public confidence in the peace process using a set of s unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set o economic and political developments in order to gauge which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will pro
useful barometer of the opinions of Sri Lankan polity, and
the public are given due importance and incorporated into
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The survey is carried out using a structured questionnai
interviews amongst a 1707 randomly selected sample. T
administrative districts, however, in the districts of Jaffna, V
the Government controlled areas were surveyed. Dat
ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sam
This is the twentieth wave of the PCI study, which wa
publication presents only the top-line results of the Septem
The results of these twenty waves offer us data for a c
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of w
developments. The results are subjected to a 3% margin of

I
NTRODUCTION
-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of rocess using a set of standardized questions, which remain other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, ents in order to gauge public opinion of the peace process, m one wave to another.
a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
of Sri Lankan polity, and ensure that the collective opinions of
ce and incorporated into the policy debate.
a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
mly selected sample. This survey was conducted among 21
in the districts of Jaffna, Vavuniya, Batticoloa and Ampara, only
as were surveyed. Data is weighted to reflect the actual
istricts in which the sample was surveyed.
he PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This
line results of the September 2005 survey.
es offer us data for a comparative study on changing public
ing from perceptions of war and peace to the current political
jected to a 3% margin of error.
er 2005
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J
• As the crisis in the UPFA government reached a flashpoint or bre time presidential confidant Mangala Samaraweera resigned fro Kumaratunga reiterated her determination to go ahead with the to pursue the path of peace. (07 June 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 08 Jun
• As the government and the country were embroiled in one of the Theras in an unprecedented move issued a tough statement, tellin were strongly opposed to the proposed Post-tsunami Operatio Joint Mechanism with the LTTE. (09 June 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 10
• A crisis ridden government was shaken at its foundation today wh Chandrika Kumaratunga that it would quit the coalition on June 1 withdrawn by midnight on June 15. (10 June 2005)-(Daily Mirror on
• As the deadline for the JVP’s withdrawal from the government n today accused her main coalition partner of trying to thwart the claiming it will lead to a separate homeland for the LTTE. (12 June 2
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga today vowed to SLFP Parliamen sign the Post-Tsunami Operations Management Structure (P- irrespective of objections or obstructions by any one. Meanwhile, pledged support to the Post-Tsunami Operational Managem Kumaratunga for the disbursement of tsunami aid to the North- June 2005)
• Muslim ministers are insisting on that the government amend t Management Structure (P-TOMS), to ensure more roles for Mus mechanism. (Daily Mirror on 20 June 2005)
• LTTE's political wing leader S. P. Thamilselvan has reiterated the P Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS) was not a arrangement to grant relief to December 26 Tsunami survivors. (D
• KILINOCHCHI: Tamil Tiger rebels asked Sri Lanka Sunday not to with Colombo to distribute foreign aid could help build confiden Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) said they invited Colombo the December 26 tsunami but regretted that six months later the Island on 20 June 2005)
• The Post Tsunami Operations Management Structure (P-TOMS) h between the Government and the LTTE and cannot be amend Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen told Sri Lank Hakeem last night. (Daily Mirror on 21 June 2005)
• The Tigers have reiterated their opposition to expand the propose government, to accommodate Muslims as an equal partner. (The Isl
• The Mahanayake of Asgiriya Ven. Udugama Sri Buddharakitta T Kumaratunga that she should go ahead with the P-TOMS agree prelate who blessed the President also told her he believed ther Lanka in the agreement. (Daily Mirror on 24 June 2005)
• PRESIDENT Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga met with Mini party on Tuesday as part of a series of ongoing consultations on TOMS). Minister Ashraff re-iterated a number of issues concerni the ethnic conflict, tsunami recovery and reconstruction. (Daily Ne
• THE Government yesterday signed the Post-Tsunami Operat document. The document was sent through Norwegian facilit signature. Mahaweli and River Basin Minister and Leader of the Ho media that the MoU for the establishment the P-TOMS was sig (Daily News on 25 June 2005)
• The JVP yesterday said it would challenge the P-TOMS agreement political and religious leaders. (Daily Mirror on 27 June 2005)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga has reassured Muslim ministers P-TOMS agreement to accommodate the needs and aspirations of 2005)
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
K
EY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

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05 NAL DEVELOPMENTS
J
UNE
2005 – S
EPTEMBER
2005
ched a flashpoint or breaking point today, senior minister and one maraweera resigned from his media portfolio while President n to go ahead with the controversial Joint Mechanism and vowed 5)-(Daily Mirror on 08 June 2005)
embroiled in one of the gravest crises today, the four Mahanayake a tough statement, telling President Chandrika Kumaratunga they Post-tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS) or 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 10 June 2005)
its foundation today when the JVP gave an ultimatum to President t the coalition on June 16 if the joint mechanism proposal was not ne 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 11 June 2005)
from the government neared, President Chandrika Kumaratunga of trying to thwart the proposed tsunami relief aid deal by falsely d for the LTTE. (12 June 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 13 June 2005)
owed to SLFP Parliamentarians and electoral organizers she would agement Structure (P-TOMS) before the end of this month by any one. Meanwhile, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe today i Operational Management Structure proposed by President unami aid to the North-East. (13 June 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 14
he government amend the proposed Post- Tsunami Operational ure more roles for Muslims in the apex bodies coming under the 5)
lvan has reiterated the President's stance that the proposed Post- ure (P-TOMS) was not a political agreement but an administrative 26 Tsunami survivors. (Daily News on 20 June 2005) Sri Lanka Sunday not to "politicise" tsunami relief, but said working ould help build confidence among the warring parties. The rebel aid they invited Colombo to jointly distribute relief to survivors of hat six months later the government has still taken no action. (The
nt Structure (P-TOMS) has been finalised and has only to be signed E and cannot be amended to accommodate Muslim aspirations, r Helgesen told Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) Leader Rauff ne 2005)
n to expand the proposed tsunami aid sharing agreement, with the an equal partner. (The Island on 24 June 2005) ma Sri Buddharakitta Thera yesterday told President Chandrika with the P-TOMS agreement even though it was too late. The old her he believed there was no threat to the sovereignty of Sri 24 June 2005)
aratunga met with Minister Ferial Ashraff and a delegation of her ngoing consultations on the proposed Tsunami Relief Council (P- mber of issues concerning the Muslim community with regard to reconstruction. (Daily News on 24 June 2005) e Post-Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS) rough Norwegian facilitators to Kilinochchi to get the LTTE's ter and Leader of the House Maithreepala Sirisena disclosed to the nt the P-TOMS was signed after it was presented in Parliament.
the P-TOMS agreement in courts today with the support of other or on 27 June 2005)
assured Muslim ministers that amendments would be made to the needs and aspirations of the community. (Daily Mirror on 29 June

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The main opposition UNP yesterday launched a fierce attack on alleging he had tried to undermine the ceasefire agreement and wa P-TOMS agreement. (Daily Mirror on 29 June 2005)
• The JVP yesterday said it would contest future elections on its SLFPers who were against P-TOMS to join the party. (Daily Mirror
• Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar yesterday accused the LTT with impunity despite the signing of the P-TOMS. “If the LTTE is goes without saying that the LTTE is still acting with impunity desp the Daily Mirror. “Is one side with all the guns and bombs acting on 02 July 2005)
• The Post-Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS) LTTE was presented to Parliament along with its signatures. Prime of the P-TOMS document with signatures at the commencemen News on 06 July 2005)
• Posing the biggest legal challenge to the controversial P-TOM yesterday filed a fundamental rights petition in the Supreme Cour basis that its formation was outside the scope of parliament and th 06 July 2005)
• The Supreme Court yesterday granted leave to proceed with the by 39 JVP Parliamentarians and one Buddhist monk along with a f agreement for alleged infringement of the right to equality and pro in the Constitution. (Daily Mirror on 07 July 2005)
• Four LTTE members, including two senior cadres were killed whe be Karuna’s men attacked them using hand grenades and T-56 police area in Trincomalee. (Daily Mirror on 11 July 2005)
• The Government has taken additional measures to beef up secu attacks by suspected LTTE cadres on troops manning security i Daya Ratnayake said. (Daily News on 14 July 2005)
• PRESIDENT Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga expressed deep loss of life occurring in and around Trincomalee, precipitated unarmed political cadres of the LTTE in their Trincomalee office said in a media release. (Daily News on 15 July 2005)
• In a widely awaited and significant ruling, the Supreme Court on Ju clauses of the Memorandum of Understanding for the establish Management Structure (P-TOMS) until final determination of the by 39 JVP parliamentarians. (Daily Mirror on 16 July 2005)
• PRESIDENT Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga's powers to en upheld by the Supreme Court both in respect of her executive p entered with the LTTE, legal sources said yesterday. (Daily News o
• UNP and Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has thanked a from Devinuwara to Colombo, the Janabala Meheyuma, which h protests in the history of the country. (The Island on 16 July 2005)
• Mixed reactions came yesterday to the Supreme Court interim r JVP saying an arbitrary decision by President Kumaratunga had be country was getting deeper in the mire. Seeing the court order Herath said it was however just the first step in a bigger struggle. (D
• The Supreme Court ruling that the Oslo-arranged Cease-fir Constitution is a huge political victory for the UNP, particularly the suspension of five provisions in the P-TOMS agreement, the Su into on February 22, 2002 would continue to be in full force. tsunami aid sharing deal was not outside the law as it was a assistance based on the CFA. (The Island on 17 July 2005)
• LTTE Political Wing Leader S. P. Thamilselvan said that following Ju clause of the P-TOMS, his organisation had shelved all hopes o Thamilselvan addressing a press conference in Kilinochchi after a f that the LTTE has no further hopes on the P-TOMS. (The Island on
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nched a fierce attack on Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, asefire agreement and was now not doing his duty to promote the June 2005)
future elections on its own and gave an open invitation to the n the party. (Daily Mirror on 30 June 2005)
sterday accused the LTTE of continuing to carry out criminal acts P-TOMS. “If the LTTE is proved to be behind the killings then it cting with impunity despite signing the P-TOMS”, the Minister told guns and bombs acting with impunity?” he queried. (Daily Mirror
ent Structure (P-TOMS) signed between the Government and the ith its signatures. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse tabled a copy es at the commencement of Parliament sittings yesterday. (Daily
he controversial P-TOMS agreement, 14 JVP parliamentarians on in the Supreme Court, challenging the P-TOMS’ legality on the ope of parliament and the country’s constitution. (Daily Mirror on
ave to proceed with the fundamental rights violation petitions filed hist monk along with a fisherman of the JHU, against the P-TOMS right to equality and protection from discrimination as guaranteed July 2005)
r cadres were killed when a group of armed persons suspected to and grenades and T-56 rifles yesterday morning in the Uppuweli on 11 July 2005)
easures to beef up security in Trincomalee amidst the spate of oops manning security in the area, Military spokesman Brigadier July 2005)
aratunga expressed deep concern and sadness by the violence and rincomalee, precipitated by the assassinations of several senior their Trincomalee office earlier this week, the President's House 5 July 2005) the Supreme Court on July 15 stayed the operation of four crucial tanding for the establishment of the Post Tsunami Operational al determination of the fundamental rights violation petitions filed on 16 July 2005)
aratunga's powers to enter into a MoU on the P-TOMS has been spect of her executive powers and on the basis that it has been yesterday. (Daily News on 16 July 2005) emesinghe has thanked all who joined the UNP's eleven day march bala Meheyuma, which he said was the most successful of public he Island on 16 July 2005)
upreme Court interim ruling on the P-TOMS agreement with the ent Kumaratunga had been overruled while the TNA warned the . Seeing the court order as a victory JVP Parliamentarian Vijitha tep in a bigger struggle. (Daily Mirror on 16 July 2005) Oslo-arranged Cease-fire Agreement (CFA) didn’t violate the r the UNP, particularly its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. Despite TOMS agreement, the Supreme Court ruled that the CFA entered ue to be in full force. The Supreme Court also ruled that the de the law as it was an arrangement to provide humanitarian on 17 July 2005)
lvan said that following July 15 Supreme Court order staying some had shelved all hopes on the proposed administrative structure. ce in Kilinochchi after a four-hour meeting with 21 TNA MPs, said e P-TOMS. (The Island on 18 July 2005)
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Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• SLFP General Secretary and Mahaweli Minister Maithripala Sirise was not harassing Premier Mahinda Rajapakse and that the accu created by the UNP, while another group of the UNP was President. He said neither the President nor the Prime Minister its propaganda machinery of being behind it. (The Island on 25 Jul
• The government is making ambitious plans to resettle thousan peninsula, Mannar and Vavuniya (north) by the LTTE in late 1 LTTE was unlikely to support a major resettlement project in th Reconstruction Ministry Secretary M. S. Jayasinghe who recentl of the government, has sought the assistance of the Peace Secre (The Island on 25 July 2005)
• President Kumaratunga said yesterday she was ready for high ceasefire agreement with a view to improving the security situa Mirror on 26 July 2005)
• The United States yesterday welcomed the signing of the P-TO and the LTTE and said it hoped this would lead to progress in th 28 July 2005)
• The LTTE has rejected President Chandrika Kumaratunga's Agreement -- signed on February 23, 2002 -- to rectify certain the last three and a half years of its existence. The LTTE's reject given to the Tamil daily Sudar Oli by Anton Balasingham, the L ideologue. (Daily Mirror on 28 July 2005)
• The ruling SLFP came together in a show of strength yester Rajapakse as its candidate for the next presidential election and while appealing to other parties including the JVP and the rebel SLFP. (Daily Mirror on 29 July 2005)
• Jaffna police sought a special court order last night to remove a in front of the Jaffna SLMM office by protesting EPDP members. (
• Government spokesman Nimal Siripala de Silva yesterday r government fold in the run-up to the presidential election for the Elections Commissioner. The polls chief maintained his silenc ``how long must we be patient?, he responded avadiyen inna! (st
• The interim order on certain clauses of the P-TOMS would rehabilitation efforts, which would be inimical not merely for and East but also impact negatively on the Ceasefire Agreem Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Secretary M.S. Jayasin filed yesterday in the Supreme Court. (Daily News on 02 August
• In an apparent setback to the LTTE, a senior LTTE leader a reportedly deserted the organization along with deputy LTTE h sources said. (Daily Mirror on 04 August 2005)
• Security was beefed up and a curfew imposed in Jaffna followin Charles Wijewardena by the LTTE and the increasing tension in (5). The curfew was imposed shortly after a mob abduc Superintendent Wijewardena late Thursday while he was investi barber. (The Island on 06 August 2005)
• While President Chandrika Kumaratunga was making several p election would be held in 2006 not this year, JHU General yesterday filed a fundamental rights violation petition seeking a d next Presidential election should be held this year. (Daily Mirror
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga told peace facilitator Norw ahead with the implementation of the P-TOMS agreement within by the Supreme Court. (Daily Mirror on 06 August 2005)
• Foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar was shot dead by a susp at No. 36, Bullers Lane, Colombo 7.Mr. Kadirgamar, who had p he edited, returned to his private residence for a swim and wa the sniper shot him thrice in the head and the chest, apparently police later found ammunition and a tripod. (Daily Mirror on 13 A

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inister Maithripala Sirisena said President Chandrika Kumaratunga apakse and that the accusations on 'Helping Hambantota' had been roup of the UNP was trying to say that it had come from the t nor the Prime Minister was foolish and he accused the UNP and d it. (The Island on 25 July 2005) lans to resettle thousands of Muslims forced out from the Jaffna ) by the LTTE in late 1990. Well informed sources said that the esettlement project in the Jaffna peninsula. Relief, Rehabilitation and . Jayasinghe who recently signed the P-TOMS agreement on behalf tance of the Peace Secretariat to implement the resettlement plan.
she was ready for high-level talks with the LTTE to review the roving the security situation and building greater confidence. (Daily
d the signing of the P-TOMS agreement between the government uld lead to progress in the broader peace process. (Daily Mirror on
handrika Kumaratunga's proposal to renegotiate the Ceasefire 002 -- to rectify certain flaws, which she said, had come to light in tence. The LTTE's rejection came in a special interview on Tuesday Anton Balasingham, the LTTE's London-based chief negotiator and 5)
how of strength yesterday to nominate Prime Minister Mahinda presidential election and Anura Bandaranaike for the premiership – g the JVP and the rebel factions in the UNP to join forces with the
er last night to remove an EPDP member’s body which was placed
testing EPDP members. (Daily Mirror on 30 July 2005) la de Silva yesterday ruled out the return of the JVP to the residential election for which no date has yet been announced by chief maintained his silence telling this reporter ``be patient.’’ Asked
onded avadiyen inna! (stay awake!). (The Island on 31 July 2005) of the P-TOMS would prevent the participation of the LTTE in inimical not merely for post-tsunami reconstruction in the North n the Ceasefire Agreement and a negotiated political settlement, n Secretary M.S. Jayasinghe stated in his statement of objections Daily News on 02 August 2005)
a senior LTTE leader and the head of its special task force has long with deputy LTTE head of the Jaffna intelligence unit, military st 2005) mposed in Jaffna following the murder of Superintendent of Police the increasing tension in the area, a military source said yesterday tly after a mob abducted, beat and hacked to death police sday while he was investigating the accidental shooting to death of a )
ga was making several public statements that the next Presidential this year, JHU General Secretary Ven. Omalpe Sobhitha Thera lation petition seeking a declaration by the Supreme Court that the d this year. (Daily Mirror on 04 August 2005) d peace facilitator Norway yesterday her government would go -TOMS agreement within the parameters of the recent order given n 06 August 2005)
was shot dead by a suspected LTTE sniper at his private residence . Kadirgamar, who had presided last night at the launch of a journal ence for a swim and was going back to his official residence, when nd the chest, apparently from a neighbouring residence, where the od. (Daily Mirror on 13 August 2005)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• THE Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Chief Hagrup Haukland yesterd the East that has raised tensions in the area and threatened the s Daily News after his three-day tour in Ampara and Batticaloa this w the Eastern region are complicating and disturbing the SLMM very
• A well-known Tamil woman broadcaster and her husband who is killed yesterday by unidentified gunmen at their Bambalapitiya resid run by them. (Daily Mirror on 13 August 2005)
• Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake has been adv Kamalasabayson to retain private counsel to present his case bef the date of the forthcoming presidential election. Elections Commissioner had received this advice following a meeting with th been advised to file his objections to the JHU petition by August 1 on August 22. (The Island on 14 August 2005)
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga yesterday said there was clear the killing of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar though it continue the negotiation process aimed at seeking lasting peace. (D
• In a major breakthrough in the investigation into the killing of Ja Police-CID-Army combined team arrested the main LTTE susp Mirror on 18 August 2005)
• The LTTE claimed yesterday the main suspect arrested by police o an innocent person and demanded his immediate release. (Daily Mir
• The state of Emergency imposed by President Chandrika Kumara Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar was approved by Parlia majority of 103 votes. (Daily Mirror on 19 August 2005)
• The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have agreed to mee implementation of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) following last Lakshman Kadirgamar. (Daily News on 20 August 2005)
• The two major political parties in the country, the Sri Lanka National Party (UNP), have decided to commence their respec week. (Daily Mirror on 22 August 2005)
• Norwegian facilitators have formally conveyed to the governmen delegation to discuss the implementation of the ceasefire agreeme Vidar Helgeson told the Daily Mirror yesterday. (Daily Mirror on 2
• Sharp differences seem to have arisen between the army and th over reports that the LTTE had advanced its Forward Defence L Cease Fire Agreement. (Daily Mirror on 24 August 2005)
• The Government asserted yesterday that it was ready to beg Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) as soon as an agreement is reached o 2005)
• Foreign Minister Anura Bandaranaike yesterday put his foot down lines of slain Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar-- and warned the faci box” in the country’s peace bid. (Daily Mirror on 26 August 2005)
• THE Supreme Court yesterday ended the controversy surroun Election, ruling that it should be held this year. The Five - Judge B Fundamental Rights application of the Jathika Hela Urumaya d Commissioner to take steps to hold the election in the current y Constitution and the applicable law. (Daily News on 27 August 200
• The JVP and JHU will field Presidential candidates for the forthc SLFP Presidential candidates do not accept their proposals. (Daily M
• The Army has begun to question the line taken by the police in the Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar on Friday August 12, by th trying to blame them for the security lapses discovered after the 29 August 2005)
• The LTTE, while ruling out the possibility of no-man’s land as a ven talks to review the ceasefire agreement taking place any time so elections. (Daily Mirror on 30 August 2005)
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agrup Haukland yesterday called for a halt to the killing spree in rea and threatened the stability of the ceasefire. Speaking to the para and Batticaloa this week, Haukland said: "Frequent killings in isturbing the SLMM very much." (Daily News on 13 August 2005) and her husband who is an activist of the PLOTE were brutally their Bambalapitiya residence adjoining a communications centre 2005)
sanayake has been advised by Attorney-General (AG) K. C. l to present his case before court in actions pending relating to ntial election. Elections Department sources said that the llowing a meeting with the AG on Friday. The Commissioner has JHU petition by August 15 as the case has been listed for hearing 005) day said there was clear evidence that the LTTE was involved in Kadirgamar though it denied the charge, but she pledged to seeking lasting peace. (Daily Mirror on 15 August 2005) tion into the killing of Jaffna SSP Charles Wijewardane, a special ed the main LTTE suspect yesterday morning in Jaffna. (Daily
pect arrested by police over the Charles Wijewardene killing was
ediate release. (Daily Mirror on 19 August 2005) ident Chandrika Kumaratunga in the aftermath of the slaying of was approved by Parliament yesterday with an overwhelming 9 August 2005)
TE) have agreed to meet Government negotiators to review the ent (CFA) following last Friday's assassination of Foreign Minister 0 August 2005)
country, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and the United commence their respective presidential election campaigns this
eyed to the government the LTTE’s willingness to meet a State of the ceasefire agreement, Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister erday. (Daily Mirror on 23 August 2005) etween the army and the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) d its Forward Defence Line (FDL) at Nagarkovil, in violation the 24 August 2005)
at it was ready to begin talks with the LTTE to review the n agreement is reached on the venue. (Daily News on 26 August
erday put his foot down against Norway—sounding more on the ar-- and warned the facilitator had far exceeded its role of “post irror on 26 August 2005) the controversy surrounding the date of the next Presidential year. The Five - Judge Bench of the Supreme Court allowing the Jathika Hela Urumaya directed the first respondent Elections election in the current year in terms of the Article 31 (3) of the ly News on 27 August 2005)
andidates for the forthcoming Presidential polls if the UNP and t their proposals. (Daily Mirror on 29 August 2005) taken by the police in their investigations into the assassination of n Friday August 12, by the LTTE. They believe that the police are ses discovered after the killing. (28 August 2005)-(The Island on
of no-man’s land as a venue, has expressed serious doubts on the taking place any time soon in view of the upcoming Presidential 5)
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The government yesterday said a firm no to the LTTE proposal for t Tiger-controlled Kilinochchi and insisted the venue should be Om 2005)
• Norwegian efforts to get both the government and the LTTE to agre Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) are continuing despite the governme turned down Omanthai as a possible location. (Daily Mirror on 02 Se
• Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse yesterday pledged that if electe dialogue directly with LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran without an September 2005)
• SLFP’s presidential candidate and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and will among other things cancel the P-TOMS agreement with the at the upcoming presidential poll, the party announced yesterday. (Da
• Two youths believed to be linked to LTTE intelligence operation Enderamulla were forcibly taken and killed at Ragama on Monday nig police. (Daily Mirror on 07 September 2005)
• Constituent parties of the PA have told SLFP Presidential Candidate agree with the policies of the JVP and JHU. (Daily Mirror on 08 Septe
• SLFP Presidential Candidate and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse pledging among other things to scrap the P-TOMS agreement wi warned that SLFP Presidential Candidate Mahinda Rajapakse’s decisi and the JHU in relation to the P-TOMS deal and the peace process being pushed towards gaining their rights on their own. (Daily Mirror
• Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse yesterday gave an assurance that the resumption of hostilities. Addressing a large gathering at T agreement, he dismissed opposition claims that this was an agreem individual victory; it is a victory for all Sri Lankans. It will bring pea Island on 09 September 2005)
• The UNP plans to rectify the controversial tsunami aid sharing Management Structure (P-TOMS). "We agree with the P-TOMS co MP, said, acknowledging the need to amend the Oslo-arranged deal done after the forthcoming presidential election, he said, adding amendments with the LTTE. The outcome of the poll is a foregon September 2005)
• The LTTE yesterday turned down a Norwegian request to hold Airport to review the Ceasefire Agreement, saying the security and conducive for such a discussion. (Daily Mirror on 09 September 2005
• President Chandrika Kumaratunga yesterday put her foot down again Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and the JVP saying that several clauses c SLFP and reiterated that she was in charge of the party commi presidential election. (Daily Mirror on 10 September 2005)
• Days after President Chandrika Kumaratunga launched an attack Rajapakse, Minister Anura Bandaranaike joined the battle yesterd presidential campaign and the President too was equally disillusione conducting his campaign. (Daily Mirror on 13 September 2005)
• The Elections Commissioner could take steps to hold the Presiden Elections Act as there was no order against the Commissioner in t application filed by the Ven. Omalpe Sobhitha Thera, Supreme C September 2005)
• Despite strong protests by President Chandrika Kumaratunga a presidential candidate Mahinda Rajapakse yesterday went ahead to s nationalist JHU by placing the document before the Sacred Tooth (Daily Mirror on 14 September 2005)
• The abolition of the P-TOMS agreement, major revisions of the cea governance or homeland concept are among the tough conditions candidate Mahinda Rajapakse and the JHU. (Daily Mirror on 14 Septem
• Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and Jathika Hela Urumaya Sec yesterday exchanged their policy statements at the foot of the Wa precincts of the Sri Dalada Maligawa, Kandy. (Daily News on 14 Septe
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the LTTE proposal for the ceasefire talks to be held in the he venue should be Omanthai. (Daily Mirror on 02 September
ent and the LTTE to agree on a venue to hold talks to review the g despite the government rejecting Oslo while the rebels had n. (Daily Mirror on 02 September 2005) ay pledged that if elected as President, he would enter into a i Prabhakaran without any foreign facilitators. (Daily Mirror on 02
ister Mahinda Rajapakse has made major concessions to the JVP MS agreement with the LTTE in exchange for the JVP’s support announced yesterday. (Daily Mirror on 06 September 2005)
E intelligence operations and working at a plastics factory in t Ragama on Monday night by an unidentified gang who posed as ) FP Presidential Candidate Mahinda Rajapakse that they could not (Daily Mirror on 08 September 2005) nister Mahinda Rajapakse yesterday signed a deal with the JVP, P-TOMS agreement with the LTTE. Meanwhile, the LTTE has ahinda Rajapakse’s decision to agree to the conditions of the JVP l and the peace process proved once again that the Tamils were
their own. (Daily Mirror on 09 September 2005) y gave an assurance that his pact with the JVP would not lead to a large gathering at Temple Trees, shortly after signing the that this was an agreement for war. "This agreement is not my Lankans. It will bring peace and prosperity to the country. (The
sial tsunami aid sharing deal a.k.a Post Tsunami Operational ee with the P-TOMS concept," UNP frontliner Mano Wijeratne, the Oslo-arranged deal and make it operational. This would be lection, he said, adding that they would discuss the required of the poll is a foregone conclusion, he said. (The Island on 09
wegian request to hold talks at the Bandaranaike International , saying the security and the environment at the location are not or on 09 September 2005)
put her foot down against the newly signed pact between Prime ing that several clauses contradicted the accepted policies of the ge of the party committee drawing up the manifesto for the eptember 2005)
nga launched an attack on SLFP Presidential candidate Mahinda oined the battle yesterday saying he had lost interest in the o was equally disillusioned about the manner Mr. Rajapakse was 3 September 2005)
ps to hold the Presidential Election in terms of the Presidential t the Commissioner in the Judgement in the Fundamental Rights hitha Thera, Supreme Court officials said. (Daily News on 13
andrika Kumaratunga and running mate Anura Bandaranaike, sterday went ahead to seal his controversial agreement with the efore the Sacred Tooth Relic at the Dalada Maligawa in Kandy.
ajor revisions of the ceasefire deal and the rejection of any self- ng the tough conditions in the agreement between presidential (Daily Mirror on 14 September 2005)
hika Hela Urumaya Secretary Ven. Dr. Omalpe Sobitha Thera s at the foot of the Wariyapola Sri Sumangala statue within the . (Daily News on 14 September 2005)
05

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCT
2005
TO
22ND S
EPTEMBER
200
The following are the significant trends observed in the PCI
♦ When asked to rate five national issues according to
economy (28.9%) and the peace process (27.8%) was and order (20.1%). From an ethnic perspective, Sinhala the economy (29.5%) followed by the peace process ( On the contrary Tamil community gives high priori followed by the economy (24.5%) and law and order gives high priority to the economy (27.6%) and the pe the tsunami recovery (17%). Amongst the Up-coun process (32%) is given high priority followed by the e recovery (17.8%).(Ref. Page 11)
♦ The public support for a negotiated peace settlement
the PCI findings in March and June 2005. Out of the to Sri Lankans believe that the Government and the L solution through negotiations. This is a significant incre the ethnic perspective reveals, a majority of all the eth permanent peace settlement through negotiations (Sin 96.1%, Up-country Tamil-98.7%). It is noteworthy th witnessed a decreased in June 2005 have again seems 2005 (June Muslim- 46.8%, September Muslim- 96.1%). (
♦ When asked about the Governments commitment to that the Government is committed to find peace thro since June 2005 (42.7%). However, this is still a dec According to the ethnic perspective, a majority of S community agree that the Government is committed noteworthy that the Sinhala community who agree hav 2005 (43.6%). A majority of Tamil (47.8%) community Even amongst the Tamil community, the disagreemen 2005 (42.8%). A majority of Up-country Tamil comm sure of the Government’s commitment to the p percentages of Up-country Tamils who agree (June-33 know (June- 38%, September-42.1%) have witnessed a s disagree have witnessed a decrease since June 2 19.7%).(Ref. Page 14-15)
♦ A majority of Sri Lankans (60.7%) agree that the gover through talks. This is a significant increase since June 20 reveals that a majority of Sinhala (62.4%), Tami communities agree that the Government is capable Interestingly, the agreement amongst the Sinhala community have significantly gone up while the agree 69.9%, September- 60.6%) community have witnessed majority of Up-country Tamil community (42.1%) d Governments capability in finding peace through talks. N
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005

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7
THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
09TH S
EPTEMBER 05
TO
22ND S
EPTEMBER
2005
ends observed in the PCI September 2005 survey.
onal issues according to their degree of importance, the ce process (27.8%) was rated the highest followed by law thnic perspective, Sinhala community gives high priority to by the peace process (27.3%) and law and order (21%). munity gives high priority for the peace process (31%) .5%) and law and order (18.4%). The Muslim community omy (27.6%) and the peace process (27.6%) followed by Amongst the Up-country Tamil community the peace iority followed by the economy (27.2%) and the tsunami 1)
tiated peace settlement has increased when compared to June 2005. Out of the total surveyed population, 87.1% of Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent This is a significant increase since March 2005 (72.4%). As , a majority of all the ethnic groups support the idea of a hrough negotiations (Sinhala-84.9%, Tamil-95.8%, Muslim- %). It is noteworthy that the Muslim support that has 2005 have again seems to have increased in September tember Muslim- 96.1%). (Ref. Page 12-13)
rnments commitment to the peace process, 49.7% agree itted to find peace through talks, which is a 7% increase ever, this is still a decrease since March 2005 (53.4%). pective, a majority of Sinhala (52.8%) and Muslim (49%) vernment is committed to find peace through talks. It is mmunity who agree have significantly increased since June amil (47.8%) community disagree with the above opinion. unity, the disagreement has seen an increase since June p-country Tamil community (42.1%) don’t know or not commitment to the peace process. Interestingly the mils who agree (June-33.9%, September-38.2%) and don’t 2.1%) have witnessed a slight increase while the ones who decrease since June 2005 (June- 28.2%, September-
7%) agree that the government is capable in finding peace nt increase since June 2005 (48%). The ethnic perspective Sinhala (62.4%), Tamil (56.2%) and Muslim (60.6%) Government is capable of finding peace through talks. amongst the Sinhala (June-45.6%, September-62.4%) one up while the agreement amongst the Muslim (June- mmunity have witnessed a down fall since June 2005. A il community (42.1%) don’t know/or not sure of the ing peace through talks. Nevertheless, even amongst the
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Up-country Tamil community the agreement (June- increased while the disagreement (June- 25%, Septem June 2005. (Ref. Page 16-17)
♦ When asked about the LTTE’s commitment to find pea Lankans (62.6%) disagree that the LTTE is committed t a significant increase of opinion since June 2005 (46.2%) a majority of Sinhala (72.8%) community disagree on peace through talks. It is noteworthy that the dis community has significantly increased since June 2005 Amongst the Tamil community, a majority of them committed to find peace through talks. However the T since June 2005 (June- 76.2%, September-66.7%). The also shows interesting developments. The Muslim disag 43.6%) on the LTTE’s commitment to find peace throu agreement (June-38%, September-25.7%) has decrease Up-country Tamil community agree (48%) that the L through talks, which is a decrease since June 2005 (53. don’t know or not sure have increased since June 46.7%).(Ref. Page 18-19)
♦ Sri Lankans seems to have divided opinion with rega peace through talks (Agree- 36.7%, Disagree- 34.3%, D an ethnic perspective, a majority of Tamil (54.7%) co capable of finding peace through talks. However amon agree while 37.7% disagree on the LTTE’s capability Likewise amongst the Muslim community 38.4% agree of Up-country Tamil community (51.4%) don’t know capability in finding peace through talks. (Ref. Page 20)
♦ When asked how close they think the country is to conflict, compared with the situation a year ago, 39 country is ‘Not close at all’ to a final settlement. Howe the country is ‘very close’ to a final settlement. It percentage who believes it is ‘very close’ have signific (June- 31.1%, September- 24.2%). Likewise the percen close at all’ have significantly gone up since June 2005 The ethnic perspective shows that a majority of the S communities believe that the country is ‘not close at al to the ethnic conflict. A majority of the Up-country that the country is very close in approaching a final sett Muslim community seems to have divided opinion i Remains the same- 16.5%, Not close at all- 35%, Do Page 21)
♦ Asked as to who should be involved in negotiations,
only the Government and the LTTE should be inv another 23.7% believe that the Government, Oppo parties and international third party should be involv Tamil community (44%) believe that only the Governm party should be involved in negotiations. A majority o Tamil (36%) community believe that the Government, O
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005

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8
y the agreement (June- 32.4%, September- 38.2%) has ent (June- 25%, September- 19.7%) has decreased since
commitment to find peace through talks, a majority of Sri the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks. This is since June 2005 (46.2%). As the ethnic breakdown shows community disagree on the LTTE’s commitment to find oteworthy that the disagreement amongst the Sinhala creased since June 2005 (June-55.4%, September-72.8%). ity, a majority of them agree (66.7%) that the LTTE is gh talks. However the Tamils who agree have gone down September-66.7%). The opinion of the Muslim community ments. The Muslim disagreement (June-31.4%, September- ent to find peace through talks has increased, while their ber-25.7%) has decreased since June 2005. A majority of agree (48%) that the LTTE is committed to find peace ase since June 2005 (53.7%). The Up-country Tamils who ve increased since June 2005 (June-38.8%, September-
vided opinion with regard to LTTE’s capability in finding 6.7%, Disagree- 34.3%, Don’t know/Not sure- 29%). From rity of Tamil (54.7%) community agree that the LTTE is gh talks. However amongst the Sinhala community 34.4% n the LTTE’s capability in finding peace through talks. community 38.4% agree while 35.4% disagree. A majority nity (51.4%) don’t know or not sure about the LTTE’s ugh talks. (Ref. Page 20)
think the country is to a final settlement to the ethnic situation a year ago, 39.6% of Sri Lankans say that the a final settlement. However 24.2% of Sri Lankans say that o a final settlement. It is interesting to note that the ‘very close’ have significantly gone down since June 2005 %). Likewise the percentage who believes that it is ‘not one up since June 2005 (June- 24.6%, September- 39.6%). that a majority of the Sinhala (39.8%) and Tamil (48.6%) ountry is ‘not close at all’ in approaching a final settlement rity of the Up-country Tamil community (40.8%) believe n approaching a final settlement to the ethnic conflict. The have divided opinion in this regard (Very close- 35%, ot close at all- 35%, Don’t know/Not sure- 13.6%).(Ref.
volved in negotiations, 24.2% of Sri Lankans believe that he LTTE should be involved in negotiations. However the Government, Opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Muslim party should be involved in negotiations. A majority of e that only the Government, LTTE and International third gotiations. A majority of Muslim (46.1%) and Up-country e that the Government, Opposition, LTTE, Tamil and
er 2005

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
Muslim parties and an international third party should Page 22)
♦ Of the people who are aware about the CFA, a maj brought many benefits to the ordinary citizen. Howe 2005 (68.8%). A majority of all the ethnic groups see agreement have brought benefits to the ordinary ci percentage of Sinhala (June-65.8%, September-57.2%) 72.8%) and Muslim (June-77%, September-67.9%) comm has brought benefit to Sri Lankans have slightly decrea the percentage of Up-country Tamils who think the CF slightly increased since June 2005 (June-92%, September
♦ Of the people who are aware of the Government and
order to review the ceasefire agreement, a majority of Government and the LTTE should start talks at this p perspective, a majority of all the ethnic groups believ LTTE should start talks at this present moment to Tamil- 89%, Muslim- 68.4%, Up-country Tamil- 80%).(Re
♦ Of the people who are aware of the involvement of for
thinks it is essential to have a monitoring mission for t breakdown reveals, a majority of all the ethnic groups a monitoring mission for the CFA to succeed (Sinh 77.5%, Up-country Tamil- 93.5%). It is interesting to Tamil and Up-country Tamil communities who believ monitoring mission is significantly higher compare communities. (Ref. Page 29)
♦ A majority of Sri Lankans (52.5%) disagree that the SLM
the ceasefire agreement, which is a significant increase ethnic perspective, a majority of Sinhala (60.2%) an disagree with the statement while a majority of Tam (54.3%) communities agree. However when compared some interesting developments. The percentage of S (June-53%, September- 60.2%) has significantly gone u community who agrees (June- 72.5%, September-69.7 June 2005. Similarly amongst the Muslim commun September- 31.9%) has gone down while the disagr 47.2%) has gone up since June 2005. Amongst the U agreement has slightly gone down since June 2005 (Jun Page 30-31)
♦ A majority of Sri Lankans (50.2%) disagree that the SLM
the ceasefire agreement, which is a significant increase ethnic perspective a majority of Sinhala (57%) and Mus that the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the CF Tamil community (61.8%) agree with the above state Up-country Tamil (58.7%) community don’t know effectiveness in monitoring the CFA. When compare percentage of Sinhala community who disagree have g 57%) while the percentage of Tamil community who ag Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005

Page x
9
tional third party should be involved in negotiations. (Ref.
e about the CFA, a majority (60.7%) believes that it has ordinary citizen. However this is a decrease since June all the ethnic groups seems to believe that the ceasefire efits to the ordinary citizen. It is noteworthy that the 5.8%, September-57.2%), Tamil (June-76.4%, September- September-67.9%) communities who believe that the CFA kans have slightly decreased since June 2005. In contrast, Tamils who think the CFA has benefited Sri Lankans have 05 (June-92%, September-95.2%).(Ref. Page 23-24)
of the Government and the LTTE’s plan to start talks in agreement, a majority of Sri Lankans (80.4%) think that the ould start talks at this present moment. From an ethnic the ethnic groups believe that the Government and the is present moment to review the CFA (Sinhala- 80.1%, -country Tamil- 80%).(Ref. Page 28)
of the involvement of foreign monitors, a majority (64.4%) monitoring mission for the CFA to succeed. As the ethnic of all the ethnic groups believe that it is essential to have CFA to succeed (Sinhala-58.8%, Tamil- 95.2%, Muslim- 5%). It is interesting to point out that the percentage of communities who believe that it “Is essential” to have a icantly higher compared to the Sinhala and Muslim
%) disagree that the SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of is a significant increase since June 2005 (44.4%). From an y of Sinhala (60.2%) and Muslim (47.2%) communities while a majority of Tamil (69.7%) and Up-country Tamil owever when compared to the PCI June findings, it reveals ts. The percentage of Sinhala community who disagree ) has significantly gone up while the percentage of Tamil - 72.5%, September-69.7%) has slightly gone down since t the Muslim community the agreement (June-50.3%, down while the disagreement (June-28.5%, September- e 2005. Amongst the Up-country Tamil community the wn since June 2005 (June- 59.2%, September- 54.3%).(Ref.
%) disagree that the SLMM is effective in its monitoring of is a significant increase since June 2005 (43.9%). From an f Sinhala (57%) and Muslim (45.1%) communities disagree its monitoring of the CFA. On the contrary a majority of ee with the above statement. Interestingly a majority of ommunity don’t know or not sure of the SLMM’s e CFA. When compared to the June PCI findings, the nity who disagree have gone up (June-51.9%, September-
amil community who agree have gone down (June- er 2005

Page 12
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
69.1%, September- 61.8%). The percentages of Up-cou have significantly gone down since June 2005 (June-53. 32-33)
♦ A majority of Sri Lankans (69.3%) state that the Kadir
impact on the peace process. As the ethnic perspec (78.3%) and Muslim (49%) communities believe that it peace process. Interestingly, a majority of Tamil (44.9 communities don’t know or not sure of the impact o process. (Ref. Page 39)
♦ Asked as to who is responsible for the number of oth 36.9% say it is the LTTE while another 34.7% don’ grounds, a majority of Sinhala community (44.9%) say the killings. A majority of Tamil (71.7%), Muslim (63.9 communities say that they don’t know or not sure w (Ref. Page 40)
♦ Of the people who are aware about the Joint Mechani
of it. While 32.3% disapprove, another 26.5% have no o breakdown reveals that a majority of Tamil (94.4%), Tamil (100%) communities approve the Joint Me community has a divided opinion on this regard (App No Opinion- 30.6%). (Ref. Page 41)
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
For further information plea
Pradeep Peiris or Rangani R
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Altern
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@ Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://w

Page x
10
e percentages of Up-country Tamil community who agree ince June 2005 (June-53.2%, September- 39.1%).(Ref. Page
.3%) state that the Kadirgamar killing will have a negative . As the ethnic perspective reveals a majority of Sinhala munities believe that it will have a negative impact on the majority of Tamil (44.9%) and Up-country Tamil (52%) ot sure of the impact of Kadirgamar killing on the peace
le for the number of other killings in the last few months, ile another 34.7% don’t know or not sure. On ethnic community (44.9%) say that the LTTE is responsible for il (71.7%), Muslim (63.9%) and Up-country Tamil (75.7%) n’t know or not sure who is responsible for the killings.
about the Joint Mechanism, 41.2% of Sri Lankans approve another 26.5% have no opinion on this regard. The ethnic jority of Tamil (94.4%), Muslim (65.7%) and Up-country approve the Joint Mechanism. However the Sinhala ion on this regard (Approve- 32.6%, Disapprove- 36.7%, e 41)
further information please contact:
adeep Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
2370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 1 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
er 2005

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Peace Confidence Index May 2001 – September
Important Issues Rating the degree of importance of five national issues.
National Breakd
35
30
28.2
28.9
27.8 25.0 25
20.1
%
20
15.1 15
10
5
0
The Economy The peace
Law and Order process in Sri Lanka
Ethnic Break
14.8 National
8.9
13.4
20.9
0 5 10 15 20 2
%
20.1
8.7
17.8 Up-country Tamil
7.5
15.4
16.9 Muslim
13.6
14.1
17.4 Tamil
8.6
18.4
Sinhala

11 ex Page
Peace Confidence Index (PCI) May 2001 – September 2005
e of five national issues.
National Breakdown
15.1
11.3
er 2005
June '05
20.1
20.3 September '05
8.9
Ethnic Breakdown
29.5
14.8
Law and Order Conflicts betw een
different religious groups
The Tsunami Recovery
14.8
15 20 25 30 35
%
27.8
13.4
20.1
28.9
The Tsunami Recovery
17.8
The peace process in Sri Lanka
Conflicts betw een different religious groups 13.6
Law and Order
The Economy
27.3 20.9
31.9 15.4
27.2
16.9
27.5
14.1
27.6 17.4
30.9 18.4
24.4

Page 14
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Solutions At the moment Sri Lanka is experiencing a 'no war, n that the continuation of this situation is better than pu that continuation of this situation is bad and, theref should go for a permanent solution, either through which of the arguments best describes your opinion.
National Break
100
12.6
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution
87.1
80
76.7
0.3 0
72.4
60 %
40
20
5.6
Ethnic Breakdown
3.5
8.6
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continu situatio
there Govern LTTE sh
perman
thro
3.9 National
0.3
6
87.1
Up-country
0
1.3
Tamil
4.4
7.1
84.9
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
9 0
1 Muslim
1.9
96 1
2.1 Tamil
0.7
1.4
95
Sinhala

12 ex Page
xperiencing a 'no war, no peace' situation. Some people say ituation is better than pursuing a final solution. Others argue ation is bad and, therefore the Government and the LTTE olution, either through negotiations or war. Please tell me escribes your opinion.
National Breakdown
87.1
5.6
6
3.9
n of this bad and
, the t and the go for a solution otiations
er 2005
March '05
June '05
September '05
Ethnic Breakdown
84.9
8.8
9.4 6.2
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through w ar
No response/ Refuse to answ er
87.1
No response/ Refuse to answ er
98.7
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through w ar 96.1
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent
95.8
solution through negotiations
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution
0 80 100

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
At the moment Sri Lanka is experiencing a 'no war, n that the continuation of this situation is better than pu that continuation of this situation is bad and, theref should go for a permanent solution, either through which of the arguments best describes your opinion.
Change in Opinion of Muslim
100
96.1
8.7
1 0
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution
85.8
80
%
60
46.8
40
30.4 20.4 20
1
2.4
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation this situation bad and there
the Governm and the LT should go fo permanent so
through w

13 ex Page
xperiencing a 'no war, no peace' situation. Some people say ituation is better than pursuing a final solution. Others argue ation is bad and, therefore the Government and the LTTE olution, either through negotiations or war. Please tell me escribes your opinion.
in Opinion of Muslim Community
96.1
2.4 1.9 3.1
1
tion of tion is erefore, rnment LTTE o for a
solution gh tions
er 2005
March '05
8
June '05
30.4
September '05
2.3
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through w ar
No response/ Refuse to answ er

Page 16
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Confidence I think the Government is committed to find peace thro
National Break
80
53.9
May '01 January
'02
69.8 70
58
43.8
63.7
60
56.7 50.2 50 %
40
31.4 30
23.8
20.9
22.5
20
11.9
9.1
15.1
10
0
September '02
Ethnic Breakdow
25.7
May '0
22.4 National
28
21
0 10 20 30 40
%
42.1 Up-country Tamil
19.7
38.2
20.6 Muslim
30.4
26.5 Tamil
Sinhala
26.2

14 ex Page
mitted to find peace through talks.
National Breakdown
63.7
56.7
53.9
53.4
49.7 44
43.5 42.7
Agree
20.9
22.5
er 2005
30.3
23
27.1
29.7
28 Disagree
15.1
tember
May '03 February '02
'04
Ethnic Breakdown
52.8
June '05
22.4
30 40 50 60
%
28
1
49.7
.7
26.2
42.1
Don't know /Not sure 38.2
Disagree .6
30.4
Agree 49
26.5
47.8 25.7

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
I think the Government is committed to find peace thro
Change in Opinion of Sinhala, Tamil
community
100%
90%
28.7
21 22.1
26.5 80%
70%
26.2 60%
27.7
42.8 50%
47.8
40%
30%
20%
43.6
52.8
10%
35.1
25.7
0%
Sinhala Sinhala Tamil Tamil
June '05 September
'05
June '05 September
'05

ex Page
mitted to find peace through talks.
n of Sinhala, Tamil and Up-country Tamil
community
22.1
26.5
38
42.1
35.1
25.7
Tamil Tamil Up-country
Tamil
er 2005
Don't know /Not sure
42.8
Disagree
47.8
28.2 19.7
Agree
33.9
38.2
Up-country Tamil
une '05 September
'05
June '05 September
'05
15

Page 18
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
I think the Government is fully capable of finding peace
National Breakdow
70
60.7 60
50
48
%
40
30
20
19.4
18.6
10
0
Agree Disagree
Ethnic Breakdown
20.7 National
18.6
38.2
19 18.5
0 10 20 30 40 5
%
42.1 Up-country Tamil
19.7
19.2 Muslim
20.2
26.3 Tamil
17.5
Sinhala

ex Page
capable of finding peace through talks.
National Breakdown
19.4
er 2005
June '05
September '05
32.7
18.6
20.7
Disagree Don't know /Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
.7
62.4
30 40 50 60 70
%
60.7
.2
42.1 .7
26.3
38.2
Don't know /Not sure
2
Disagree
Agree 60.6
56.2
16

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
I think the Government is fully capable of finding peace
Change in Opinion in Sinhala, Muslim &
100%
90%
19
13.7
19.2
80%
35.6
16.4
70%
18.5
20.2
60%
18.9 50%
40%
30%
62.4
69.9
60.6
20%
45.6
10%
0%
June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05
Sinhala Muslim

17 ex Page
capable of finding peace through talks.
n Sinhala, Muslim & Up-country Tamil Community
13.7
19.2
16.4
42.6 42.1
20.2
25
69.9
60.6
32.4
June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05
Muslim Up-country Tamil
er 2005
Don't know /Not sure
19.7
Disagree
Agree
38.2

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through tal
National Breakdo
70
18
May '01
63.5
60
50.6
0
50. 50
42.7
39.5
38.2 38.9 44.9 %
40
30
25.7
28.3
29
22.2
12.9
Ethnic Breakdown
3.1
25.7
20
15.8
10
Sep '01
Jan '02
May '02
Sep '02
Jan '03
May '03
Se
'03
25.7 National
11.7
8
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
46.7 Up-country Tamil
5.3
24.1
48
30.7 Muslim
43.6 25.7
25.4 Tamil
Sinhala

ex Page
to find peace through talks.
National Breakdown
62.6
50.3 44.9
46.2
38.9
11.7
Jan '03
er 2005
50.1
40.2
Agree
29
25.7
Disagree
18.2
21.4
21.1
Ethnic Breakdown
66.7
17.2
May '03
Sep '03
Feb '04
March '05
June '05
Sep '05
25.7
30 40 50 60 70 80
%
62.6
4.1
46.7
Don't know /Not sure 48
Disagree 30.7
43.6
Agree 25.7
25.4
72.8
18

Page 21
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through tal
Change in Opinion of
100%
90%
24.1
20.2
25.4
30. 80%
39.4
3.6
70%
8
60%
31. 50%
40%
72.8
76.2
30%
55.4
66.7
20%
38
10%
0%
5.2
3.1
June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June
Sinhala Tamil

19 ex Page
to find peace through talks.
ange in Opinion of All Ethnic Groups
25.4
30.6 30.7
38.8
46.7 8
31.4
43.6
66.7
38
25.7
5 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05
Tamil Muslim Up-country Tamil
er 2005
Don't know /Not sure 7.6
Disagree 5.3
Agree
53.7
48

Page 22
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
I think the LTTE is fully capable of finding peace through
National Breakdown
29
34.3
Ethnic Breakdow
29 National
34.3
27.9
34.4
0 10 20 30 40
%
36.7
Up-country Tamil
5.4
37.7
4
26.3 Muslim
35.4
38.4
29.5 Tamil
15.8
Sinhala

ex Page
of finding peace through talks.
National Breakdown
36.7
Agree
Disagree
Don't know /Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
29
34.4
30 40 50 60
%
er 2005
34.3
27.9
36.7
37.7
51.4
Don't know /Not sure
43.2
Disagree
26.3
Agree 35.4
38.4
29.5
54.7
20

Page 23
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Compared to the situation of the peace process a year country is, at present, in approaching a final settlement
National Breakdow
45
40
35
32.5
31.1
33.6
30
25
27.7 24.2
25 24.6 %
19.8 20
15
10
5
0
Very close Remains the same Not close
Ethnic Breakdown
National
11.2
24.2 25
39.6
Up-country Tamil
7.9
25
26.3
11.1
22.8
26.3
39.8
0 10 20 30 40
%
40.8
Muslim
13.6
16.5
35
35
12.1 Tamil
18.6
20.7
Sinhala

ex Page
he peace process a year ago, how close do you think the aching a final settlement to the ethnic conflict?
National Breakdown
39.6
19.8
14.1
11.2
the same Not close at all Don't know /Not
sure
er 2005
March '05
June '05 .7
25
24.6
September '05
16.6
Ethnic Breakdown
24.2 25
39.6
25
26.3
22.8
26.3
39.8
30 40 50 60
%
40.8
Don't know /Not sure
Not close at all 35
Remains the same
35
Very close
20.7
.6
48.6
21

Page 24
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
If peace is to be found through negotiations, according involved in negotiations?
National & Ethnic Bre
1.1 National
2.3
4.5
12.8
15.2
23.7
14.9
24.2
0.0
10.7
Up Country Tamils
1.3 1.3
5.3
36.0
1.3
2.5
4.5
16.0
29.3
0.0
7.8
Muslim
0.0
1.0
2.0 2.0
4
0.7 0.0
5.7
15.6 Tamil
1.1 1.4
18.4 13.0
Sinhala
14.8
23.1
12.2
27.0
0 10 20 30 40
%

22 ex Page
negotiations, according to your opinion, who should be
National & Ethnic Breakdown
23.7
Don't know
24.2
No peace talks
36.0
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil, Muslim parties and a international third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE,Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil parties and a international third party
Govt., Opposition, LTTE and other
44.0
Tamil parties only
Govt.,LTTE and International third party only
27.0
Govt. and LTTE only
30 40 50
%
er 2005
29.3
41.2
23.1
46.1
.4

Page 25
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) Some people say that the CFA has brought many benef say that the CFA has not yielded any benefits to them. benefited from the CFA or not ?
National Breakdow
80
70
65
68.8
60.7 60
50 %
40
31.5 30
20.4
23.3
20
10
0
Yes, they have benefited No, they have not
benefited
Ethnic Breakdown
National
7.8
31.5
8.2
57.2
0 20 40 60 80
%
60.7
Up country Tamils
1.6
3.2
Muslim
7.47
24.7
34.6
67.9
Tamil
7.2
20
72.8
Sinhala

23 ex Page
FA)
has brought many benefits to ordinary citizens while others d any benefits to them. In your opinion have Sri Lankans t ?
National Breakdown
20.4
14.6
er 2005
March '05
June '05
September '05
Ethnic Breakdown
57.2
31.5
23.3
7.9
7.8
No, they have not benefited
Don't know /Not sure
60.7
.6
60 80 100
%
95.2
Don't know /Not sure
No, they have not 67.9
benefited Yes, they have benefited 72.8

Page 26
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Some people say that the CFA has brought many benef say that the CFA has not yielded any benefits to them. benefited from the CFA or not ?
Change in Opinion of All Et
100%
8.6 8.2
5.6 7.2 6.6 90%
80%
25.6
34.6
18
20
16.4
70%
60%
50%
40%
65.8
57.2
76.4
72.8
77
30%
20%
10%
0%
June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 S
Sinhala Tamil Muslim

24 ex Page
has brought many benefits to ordinary citizens while others d any benefits to them. In your opinion have Sri Lankans t ?
in Opinion of All Ethnic Groups
72.8
er 2005
3
3.2 7.2 6.6 7.47
5
Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05
mil Muslim Up-country Tamil
1.6
20
16.4
24.7
Don't know /Not sure Disagree
Agree
92
95.2
77
67.9

Page 27
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Please tell me three most important benefits of the CFA
National Brea
80
57.6
47.2
40.4
Peaceful environment in the country
69.7 70
60
50 %
40
30
20
10
0
Ending of
Ending of
Freedom of killing
destruction
movement
Ethnic Breakdown
4.1
5.6
National
16.9
34.9
3.0
4.1
34.3
58.1
0 20 40 60 80
%
69.7
15.0
40.4
47.2
57.6
1.6
6.0
26.6
Up-country Tamil
24.2
34.5
49.6
67.4
81.4
0.8
1.8 Muslim
30.3
35.9
28.6
45.0
63.2
83.3
Tamil
6.9
15.3
30.6
39.6
13.2
42.2
43.8
8
39.0
55.1 Sinhala
65.1

25 ex Page
rtant benefits of the CFA.
National Breakdown
4
er 2005
69.7
16.9
34.9
4.1
5.6
g of ction
Freedom of
Development Feeling of
Avoid division
Benefit to movement
security
of the country
minority communities
Ethnic Breakdown
58.1
69.7 47.2
57.6
2
55.1
60 80 100
Benefit to minority communities
49.6
81.4
Avoid division of the country
67.4
Feeling of security
Development
.0
83.3
Freedom of movement
63.2
Ending of destruction
Ending of killing
Peaceful environment in the country
65.1
88.6
.8

Page 28
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
How satisfied are you with the Government's commitm
National Breakdown
14.2
21
12.8
11.1
Ethnic Breakdown
National
11.1
12.8
14.2
15.8
21
40.9
Up-country Tamil
6.3
9.5
20.6
15.9
4
Muslim
6.2
7.4
19.8 12.3
Tamil
2.4
14.4
17.6
27.2
38.4
Sinhala
11
12.6
20.7
40
0 10 20 30 40 5
%

ex Page
Government's commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
ational Breakdown
14.2
40.9
er 2005
Very satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Not satisfied
Not satisfied at all
No opinion
Ethnic Breakdown
40.9
.6
.7
40
30 40 50 60
%
47.6
No opinion
Not satisfied at all
8
Not satisfied 54.3
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied 27.2
38.4
26

Page 29
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
How satisfied are you with the LTTE commitment to th
National Breakdown
2.3
9.3
51.9
12.1
Ethnic Breakdown
0
12.1 National
2.3
9.3
24.5
Up-country Tamil
1.6
9.5
22.2
12.7
Muslim
2.4
17.1
19.5
24.4
36.6
Tamil
4
8.7
15.9
19 10.9 Sinhala
1.9
26.9
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

ex Page
LTTE commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
tional Breakdown
2.3
9.3
24.5
Very satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Not satisfied
Not satisfied at all
No opinion
Ethnic Breakdown
24.5
51.9
2.2
52.4
60.3
30 40 50 60 70
%
er 2005
No opinion
54
Not satisfied at all
24.4
36.6
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
26.9
27

Page 30
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
While some people argue that the Government should moment, another set of people argue that they should the CFA. In your opinion do you think that the Go present moment with the LTTE to review the CFA ?
National Breakdown
7.7
11.9
Ethnic Breakdo
6.5
11.9 National
7.7
20 Up-country Tamil
0
2.6 Muslim
28.9
5.5 Tamil
5.5
13.4 Sinhala
0 20 40 60
%

28 ex Page
the Government should not hold talks with the LTTE at this le argue that they should hold talks with the LTTE to review you think that the Government should hold talks at this E to review the CFA ?
National Breakdown
80.4
er 2005
Yes
No
No Opinion
Ethnic Breakdown
80.4
28.9
80.1
40 60 80 100
%
80
No Opinion
No
68.4
Yes
89

Page 31
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) What is your opinion of the need of a monitoring missi
National Breakdown
22.8
12.8
Ethnic Breakdown
12.8 National
22.8
14.7
58.8
0 20 40 60 80
%
64.4
Up-country Tamil
4.3 2.2
4.2 Muslim
18.3
26.5
77
4 Tamil
0.8
Sinhala

ex Page
sion (SLMM)
ed of a monitoring mission for the CFA to succeed?
National Breakdown
64.4
er 2005
Is essential
Not essential
Don't know /Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
64.4
58.8
60 80 100
%
93.5
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential
77.5
Is essential
95.2
29

Page 32
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial in i agreement.
National Bre
60
50
23.6
May '02 September
'02
43.6
40 %
33.1
31.7
30.3
32.1
30
26.8
27.6 30.1
20
15.7
17.8
Ethnic Breakdown
16.6
22.8
19.6
18.1
10
14.6
0
January '03
May '03 Septembe
'03
24 National
52.5 23.5
Up Country Tamils
2.2
43.5
23.2
60.2
0 20 40 60
%
54.3
20.8 Muslim
47.2 31.9
26.2 Tamil
4.1
Sinhala

30 ex Page
g Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire
National Breakdown
52.5
43.6
44.4
36.4
30.1
24.8 25 19.6
18.1
23.5
er 2005
Agree
Disagree 32.1
30.6 27.1 23.6
24
Don't know /Not sure
May '03 September
February '03
'04
nic Breakdown
69.7
June '05 September
'05
52.5
43.5
40 60 80
%
54.3
60.2
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree 47.2 9
Agree

Page 33
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartia agreement.
Change in Opinion of All E
100%
90%
23.2
20.5
80%
32.8
7
26.2
21.2 2
70%
4.1
28.5 60%
4 50%
60.2 40%
53
72.5
69.7 30%
50.3 20%
3 10%
14.3 16.6 0%
June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Se
Sinhala Tamil Muslim

31 ex Page
ring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire
e in Opinion of All Ethnic Groups
26.2
21.2 20.8
33.1
43.5 4.1
28.5
47.2
2.2
69.7
50.3
31.9
Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05
mil Muslim Up-country Tamil
er 2005
Don't know /Not sure 7.8
Disagree
Agree
59.2
54.3

Page 34
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in it agreement.
National Brea
60
50
26.6
29.4
22.8
September '02
40.7 40
%
30
28.7
28
29.4 24.8
20
20.3
25.7
21.1
19.1
10
0
January '03 May '03 September
'03
Ethnic Breakdow
19.8
F
24.9 National
24.9
Up Country Tamils
2.2
10.6
23.3
0 10 20 30 40
%
39.1
22.5 Muslim
45 32.4
27.6 Tamil
Sinhala

32 ex Page
g Mission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire
National Breakdown
50.2
43.9
35.1
.4
29.4
23.5 24.9 er 2005
Agree
Disagree
Don't know /Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
.8
40.7
1.1
19.1
32 28.2
22.8
24.1
24.9
'03 September
February '04 June '05 September '03
'05
24.9
30 40 50 60 70
%
50.2 24.9
58.7
23.3
57
Don't know /Not sure 39.1
22.5
Disagree
32.4
45.1
Agree
27.6
61.8

Page 35
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in it agreement.
Change in Opinion of Sinhala, Tamil & Up-
100%
34
23.3 21.3
27.6 80%
9.6
10.6
60%
57
40%
51.9
69.1
61.8
20%
14.2
19.8
0%
June '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05
Sinhala Tamil

ex Page
g Mission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire
Sinhala, Tamil & Up-country Tamil community
21.3
27.6
41.9
58.7
2.2 69.1
61.8
53.2
39.1
une '05 Sep '05 June '05 Sep '05
Tamil Up-country Tamil
er 2005
9.6
Don't know /Not 10.6
sure Disagree 4.9
Agree
33

Page 36
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Foreign Involvement What is your opinion of the need for an international th negotiations to solve the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka ?
National Breakdown
24.3
16.9
Ethnic Breakdown
16.9 National
24.3
18
54.4
0 20 40 60
%
58.9
13.2 Up-country Tamils
5.3
13.6 Muslim
20.4
27.6
66
10 Tamil
5.7
Sinhala

ex Page
ed for an international third party as a facilitator to the c conflict in Sri Lanka ?
tional Breakdown
58.9
er 2005
Is essential
Not Essential
Don't know /Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
58.9
.6
54.4
40 60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure 81.6
Not Essential
66
Is essential
84.3
34

Page 37
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Please state the most suitable country that should play process.
National Break
45
41.8
40
37.6
35
30 %
25
25
23.8
22.
20
15
10
5
0
India United States of
America
Ethnic Breakdow
13.2
N
37.6 National
23.8
27.3 11.4
34.6 Up-country Tamil
3.8
42.5 29.6 14.7
0 20 40 60
%
57.7 3.8
30.1 Muslim
4.1
57.5 8.2
9.8 Tamil
5.4
4.5
Sinhala

35 ex Page
country that should play the role of facilitator in the peace
National Breakdown
22.7
10.5
er 2005
June '05
23.8
27.3
September '05
11.4
d States of
Norw ay Japan merica
Ethnic Breakdown
37.6
3
34.6
80.4
.6
40 60 80 100
%
India 57.7
United States of America
.1
Norw ay
57.5
Japan
42.5

Page 38
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
The Norwegian government has been officially fa November 2001. Please tell me your level of satisf facilitator. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied or role as facilitator ?
National Breakdow
22.5
7.4
42
Ethnic Breakdow
National
7.4
28.1
42
Up-country Tamil
40.7
50.8
Muslim
13.6
49.4
37
Tamil
26
68.3
Sinhala
4
22.2
47.3
2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

36 ex Page
has been officially facilitating peace negotiations since me your level of satisfaction with the Norwegian role as d, somewhat satisfied or not satisfied at all on the Norwegian
National Breakdown
7.4
28.1
Very satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Not satisfied at all
Don't know /Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
42
22.5
3.3 68.3
26.5
er 2005
8.5
Very satisfied
50.8
Somew hat satisfied
Not satisfied at all
Don't know /Not sure
2.4
47.3
0
4
37
0
% 60% 80% 100%

Page 39
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Please state if you approve or disapprove of Norway co process.
National Breakdow
28.7
45.3
Ethnic Breakdow
15.9
28.7 National
45.3 26
Up-country Tamil
4
21.3
31.3
52.8
0 20 40 60 8
%
7
23.5 Muslim
33.3
43.1
10.9 Tamil
2.9
Sinhala

ex Page
disapprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace
National Breakdown
26
45.3
er 2005
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know / Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
.7
45.3
86.2
1.3
40 60 80 100
%
74.7
Don’t know / Not sure
Disapprove 33.3
43.1
Approve
52.8
37

Page 40
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
What is your opinion of the need for India's involvemen
National Breakdow
23.6
23.7
Ethnic Breakdow
23.6 National
23.7
26.8
49.3
0 20 40 60
%
52.7
8 Up-country Tamils
6.7
10.8 Muslim
12.7
10.2 Tamil
38.7
51.1
Sinhala
23.9

38 ex Page
ed for India's involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process ?
National Breakdown
52.7
er 2005
Is essential
Not Essential
Don't know /Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
.6 .7
26.8
49.3
40 60 80 100
%
52.7
3.9
85.3
Don't know /Not sure
Not Essential
76.5
Is essential
38.7
51.1

Page 41
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
What kind of impact will Kadirgamar assassination have
National Breakdown
2.1
6
22.6
Ethnic Breakdown
National
6
22.6
2.1
69.3
Up-country Tamils
17.3
29.3
52
1.3
36.3 Muslim
2.9
11.8
49
23.9
26.8
44.9 Tamil
4.3
Sinhala
2.7
17.1
1.8
0 20 40 60 8
%

ex Page
gamar assassination have on the peace process ?
National Breakdown
2.1
69.3
er 2005
Will have a positive impact
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Don't know /Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
69.3
52
44.9
78.3
40 60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure .3
Will have no impact
36.3
Will have a negative impact 49
Will have a positive impact
39

Page 42
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
In addition to Kadirgamar killing, there were number of In your opinion who do you think are responsible for th
National Breakdo
40
3.1
LTTE and the Security forces
36.9
35
30
%
25
20
15
13.6
10
1.9
0
Ethnic Breakdown
3.4
6.1 5
LTTE and Karuna faction
LTTE and paramilitary groups
LTTE, the Security forces and Karuna faction
LTTE only
34.7
National
0
1.3
2.4
1.9
3.1
6.1
13.6
0 0.4
36.9
1.4
4.1 Up-country Tamils
0 0 0 0
2.7
16.2
0
2.1
26.5
0.1
1.8
7
15.9
63.
Muslim
1
8.2 8.2
3.1
5.2
8.2
Tamil
0
0.7
0.7 1.4 1.4
2.2
8.7
13
Sinhala
44.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
%

40 ex Page
g, there were number of other killings in the last few months. ink are responsible for these killings ?
National Breakdown
6.1
er 2005
36.9
2.4
1.3
0
34.7
LTTE, the Security forces and Karuna faction
LTTE only Paramilitary
groups
Security Forces only
Karuna faction only
Don't know / Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
.7
44.9
0 50 60 70 80
%
6.9
Don't know / Not sure
Karuna faction only 75.7
Security Forces only
Paramilitary groups 63.9
LTTE only
LTTE, the Security forces 71.7
and Karuna faction LTTE and paramilitary groups LTTE and Karuna faction
LTTE and the Security forces

Page 43
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Joint Mechanism Do you approve or disapprove of the Joint Mechanism
National Breakdown
26.5
32.3
Ethnic Breakdo
26.5 National
32.3
41.2
0 Up-country Tamils
0
10 Muslim
24.3
30.6
36.7 32.6
0 20 40 60 8
%
65.7
3.3 Tamil
2.2
Sinhala

ex Page
of the Joint Mechanism ?
National Breakdown
41.2
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Ethnic Breakdown
2.3
41.2
.6
36.7 2.6
40 60 80 100 120
%
er 2005
100
No Opinion
Disapprove
65.7
Approve
94.4
41

Page 44
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Do you think the Joint mechanism/PTOMS will be oper
National Breakdown
64.3
Ethnic Breakdown
National
35.7
Up-country Tamils
22.6
Muslim
47.5
52.5
Tamil
22.9
Sinhala
29
0 10 20 30 40 50 6
%

ex Page
ism/PTOMS will be operational?
tional Breakdown
35.7
Yes
No
thnic Breakdown
9
er 2005
64.3 35.7
71
40 50 60 70 80 90
%
77.4
No
47.5
52.5
Yes
77.1
42

Page 45
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
What will be the impact of it on the peace process ?
National Breakdow
6.5
11.8
11
Ethnic Breakdo
National
11 11.8
6.5
11.6
15.9
63.9
0 20 40 60
%
70
0 Up-country Tamils
0
8.7
Muslim
3.4
13.8 6.9
4.9 Tamil
0
6.6
Sinhala
8.6

ex Page
n the peace process ?
National Breakdown
70.7
er 2005
Will have a positive impact
Will have a negative impact
Will have no impact
Don't know /Not sure
Ethnic Breakdown
70.7
63.9
40 60 80 100
%
91.3
Don't know /Not sure
Will have no impact
75.9
Will have a negative impact
Will have a positive impact
88.5
43

Page 46
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in September 20
DISTRICT TOT Colombo 20 Gampaha 19 Kalutara 96 Kandy 11 Matale 42 Nuwara Eliya 66 Galle 10 Hambantota 51 Matara 75 Anuradhapura 73 Polonnaruwa 35 Kurunegala 13 Puttlam 67 Badulla 75 Monaragala 35 Ratnapura 98 Kegalle 77 Ampara 54 Batticoloa 30 Vavuniya 9 Jaffna 78 NATIONAL 171
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in September 200
ETHNICITY TOT Sinhala 138 Tamil 14 Muslim 10 Up-country Tamil 77 NATIONAL 171

Annex
ribution in September 2005
TOTAL 203 193 96 117 42 66 100 51 75 73 35 137 67 75 35 98 77 54 30 9 78 1711
ibution in September 2005
Y TOTAL
1389 141 104 77 1711
er 2005
i
Pag PagPagPagPagPagPagPag

Page 47
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Copyright © Social Indicator September 2005
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) s in public confidence levels towards the peace process ove be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the February 2004, PCI was conducted bi-monthly, howeve decided to conduct the study quarterly to make the PCI mo
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1800 respondents during each phase of the capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of te undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace proc factors, however the ethnic factor, which is the most im factor that has been accommodated in this model.
The total sample is distributed amongst 21 administrative the Ampara, Batticoloa, Vavuniya and Jaffna districts the covered due to logistical difficulties and methodologica assigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic heteroge are eliminated by weighting the sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a distr of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Se primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sam Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected randoml using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 199 Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensuring a m within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a max GND. Within a given GND the enumerator is advised to s proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand the random selection of households.
In the case of urban areas the interviewer is instructed t households, thus resulting in the interview-taking place at e final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the ho ensuring that each member of the household has an equ PCI sample.
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model do analysis at the same level of precision.

nfidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations the peace process over time it is essential that the study al pauses during the study. Hence, from May 2001 to d bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI rly to make the PCI more efficient.
ctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of ring each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to ty within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is ion on the peace process is influenced by a number of which is the most important and influential, is the sole in this model.
ngst 21 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, but in and Jaffna districts the LTTE controlled areas were not es and methodological concerns. The sample size is ximately equal to the population proportions. However, to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling biases ple.
r ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit ons of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of
frame.
work and ensuring a maximum dispersion of the sample ed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a erator is advised to select a starting point randomly and ndom walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure .
rviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the erview-taking place at every alternative household. As the is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus household has an equal chance of being selected to the
subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. hat the PCI model does not support the regional level on.
er 2005
ii

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