கவனிக்க: இந்த மின்னூலைத் தனிப்பட்ட வாசிப்பு, உசாத்துணைத் தேவைகளுக்கு மட்டுமே பயன்படுத்தலாம். வேறு பயன்பாடுகளுக்கு ஆசிரியரின்/பதிப்புரிமையாளரின் அனுமதி பெறப்பட வேண்டும்.
இது கூகிள் எழுத்துணரியால் தானியக்கமாக உருவாக்கப்பட்ட கோப்பு. இந்த மின்னூல் மெய்ப்புப் பார்க்கப்படவில்லை.
இந்தப் படைப்பின் நூலகப் பக்கத்தினை பார்வையிட பின்வரும் இணைப்புக்குச் செல்லவும்: Peace Confidence Index 2006.02

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An Opinio = حبالہ
Peace Confider

in Poll On Peace
الكبير.
ce Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
FEBRUARY 2006
Social Indicator

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• INTRODUCTION
• KEY NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX
(PCI) T
OP
-L
INE
R
ESULTS
IMPORTANT ISSUES
SOLUTIONS
CONFIDENCE
CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT (CFA)
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION (SLMM)
FOREIGN INVOLVEMENT
• P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
• A
NNEX

ex
01 MENTS 02 08 X
(PCI) 13
13
14
18
(CFA) 22
MISSION (SLMM) 27
31
S
37
2006

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I
NTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop
public confidence in the peace process using a set of sta
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of
economic and political developments in order to gauge pu
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will prov
useful barometer of Sri Lankan polity’s opinions, and ensu
given due importance and incorporated into the policy deba
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The survey is carried out using a structured questionnair
interviews amongst a 1362 randomly selected sample.
administrative districts, excluding the North and East du
months prior. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnogr
which the sample was surveyed.
This is the twenty first wave of the PCI study, which wa
publication presents only the top-line results of the Februar
The results of these twenty one waves offer us data for a c
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of
developments. The results are subjected to a 3% margin of e
** This report does not provide a comparative analysis w
wave has completely excluded the North & East province
survey does not reflect the opinion of the entire Tamil com
Tamil community is not as precise as the opinions of the ot

I
NTRODUCTION
fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
ocess using a set of standardized questions, which remain
ther is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
nts in order to gauge public opinion on the peace process,
one wave to another.
period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
lity’s opinions, and ensure that such collective opinions are
ated into the policy debate.
structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
omly selected sample. This survey was conducted in 17
the North and East due to the violence prevalent in the
reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in
he PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This
ne results of the February 2006 survey.
aves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public
ing from perceptions of war and peace to current political
ected to a 3% margin of error.
a comparative analysis with previous waves as the present
North & East provinces from the sample. As the present
of the entire Tamil community, the reported opinions of the
as the opinions of the other three communities.
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K
EY NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
S
EPTEMBER
2005
• LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran has written to Norwa urging his country to continue its role as facilitator in Sri L said September 19. (19 September 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 20
• The Co-Chairs of the Tokyo Donor Conference on Sep immediate public steps to demonstrate its commitment to change — while urging that both parties to work out a fede September 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 21 September 2005)
• The main Tamil party warned on September 22 that the Presidential candidate Mahinda Rajapakse with the JVP a possibility of finding a negotiated solution to the national 2005)
• Former Service Chiefs on September 26 demanded th apologise for the insulting remarks where he said the mil protect Sri Lanka’s territorial integrity. Addressing a new Army Commander Lt. Gen. Dennis Perera, former Gener Command General Cyril Ranatunga, former Air Force Chie former Army Commander and Secretary, Ministry of Defen Amarasinghe in his remarks made at the Town Hall rally on the security forces. (26 September 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 27
• The Norwegian Government has granted Rs. 23.9 million Muslims (PSM). The PSM will facilitate dialogue and build and interest groups to develop a co-ordinated position for the ceasefire agreement and in future peace negotiations, (Daily News on 27 September 2005)
• UNP leader and presidential candidate Ranil Wickremesingh country on September 27 promised immediate measures t other essential items, launch a new poverty alleviation sch first year in office. (27 September 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 28
• On September 26 the European Union, despite tremen imposed an immediate travel ban on the LTTE and declare longer be received in any of the member states until furthe formal listing of the LTTE as a terrorist organization. (2 September 2005)
• The LTTE on September 28 warned the EU decision to visiting member states would have a serious impact on the p 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 29 September 2005)
• Leader of the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP) and would, after the nomination day, intensify the election camp the SLFP’s Presidential hopeful, Prime Minister Mahinda Raja
• The much awaited SLFP manifesto for the presidential settlement to the ethnic conflict under a unitary structure, a on October 4 as senior members finalized the document. (D
• A tense situation has arisen in Kalmunai after two businessm near the Udaya Bridge A person identified as Abdul Wahid (31) a father of one chi Bawa Janus (29) was seriously injured and hospitalised. ( October 2005)
• The government on October 11 provided a helicopter to after at least four LTTE cadres, including a senior intelligen when their convoy came under attack at Vavunathivu in B that LTTE’s Batticaloa district intelligence chief Keerthi w military leader Bhanu critically injured, military sources said October 2005)
• Despite international pressure to end assassinations, two October 12 allegedly by the LTTE. (12 October 2005)-(Daily

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ENTS
S
EPTEMBER
2005 – F
EBRUARY
2006*
n has written to Norway’s new Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg role as facilitator in Sri Lanka’s peace process, diplomatic sources 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 20 September 2005) nor Conference on September 20 called on the LTTE to take trate its commitment to the peace process and its willingness to arties to work out a federal solution within a united Sri Lanka. (20 21 September 2005)
September 22 that the recent agreements signed by the SLFP japakse with the JVP and the JHU had shut the door on the olution to the national question. (Daily Mirror on 23 September
mber 26 demanded that JVP leader Somawansa Amarasinghe s where he said the military should be disbanded if it could not grity. Addressing a news conference at Renuka Hotel, a former is Perera, former General Officer Commanding Joint Operations a, former Air Force Chief Air Vice Marshal Harry Gunatilleke, and retary, Ministry of Defence General Hamilton Wanasinghe said Mr. t the Town Hall rally on September 20 had damaged the morale of 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 27 September 2005) granted Rs. 23.9 million in support to the Peace Secretariat for itate dialogue and build consensus among Muslim political parties -ordinated position for Muslims as input to the implementation of ure peace negotiations, the Norwegian Embassy said in a release. 5)
ate Ranil Wickremesinghe presenting his election manifesto to the d immediate measures to bring down the cost of milk foods and poverty alleviation scheme and provide 200,000 jobs within his 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 28 September 2005)
Union, despite tremendous opposition from the Norwegians, n the LTTE and declared that delegations from the LTTE will no ember states until further notice. It is also actively considering the terrorist organization. (26 September 2005)-(The Island on 28
ed the EU decision to impose a travel ban on the rebels from a serious impact on the peace process in Sri Lanka. (28 September ber 2005)
cratic Party (EPDP) and minister Douglas Devananda says his party tensify the election campaign in the north and the east on behalf of e Minister Mahinda Rajapakse. (The Island on 03 October 2005) to for the presidential election would insist on a negotiated der a unitary structure, a senior party leader told the Daily Mirror inalized the document. (Daily Mirror on 05 October 2005)
unai after two businessmen were shot by suspected LTTE cadres a Bridge on October 5. d (31) a father of one child died on the spot while the other Yasim jured and hospitalised. (05 October 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 06
rovided a helicopter to transport a seriously injured LTTE cadre luding a senior intelligence member, were killed and seven injured tack at Vavunathivu in Battoicaloa on Monday night.It is believed lligence chief Keerthi was killed and Ampara-Batticaloa districts red, military sources said. (11 October 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 12
end assassinations, two Jaffna school principals were killed on (12 October 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 13 October 2005)
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• JVP Propaganda Secretary Wimal Weerawansa charged killing spree was setting the stage for an unfair presiden Mirror on 14 October 2005)
• The TNA on October 19 criticised the Mahinda Chint anything positive regarding the peace process, stating Mahinda Rajapakse cannot resolve the country’s natio Mirror on 20 October 2005)
• The TNA has called for more security for its members pa in Trincomalee, following reports of an LTTE plot to as parliamentarian K. Thurairetnasingam. (Daily Mirror on 22
• Tamil leaders, who had entered the democratic system National Alliance leaders, are taking the Tamil peop parliamentarian R. Sampanthan’s comments, that LTTE’s Tamil people, were appalling and an insult to democratic T
• The UNP said on October 26 said that the JVP’s call on army, was not something new since its founder leader R thing in his first Matara District UNP parliamenatarian Sagala Ratnayake Wijeweera launched his armed struggle in April 1971 wit them as an impediment to his revolutionary objectives. (Th
• President Mahinda Rajapakse on November 25 declared priority to launch a "new peace process" to usher in lastin country's national question. President Rajapakse was mak in Parliament after ceremonially opening the second sess current Ceasefire Agreement will be revised to ensure recruitment of children for war, safeguard national secu rebuild lives shattered by war and the tsunami in the Nor transparent ceasefire monitoring machinery. (25 Novemb 2005)
• UNP Presidential candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe on N representatives that as President he would setup a separ President to safeguard the rights of the country’s Muslim Mirror on 08 November 2005)
• The main Opposition on November 8 staged a walk out o Minister Dr. Sarath Amunugama commenced presenting t ignored the Opposition protest and Finance Minister A speech for the fiscal year starting January 1. (08 Novem 2005)
• Eight days ahead of a crucial presidential poll, the Gove many described as a “highly populist” and a “give aw Amunugama said though it was prepared under difficult development. (08 November 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 09 N
• The LTTE and the TNA on November 11 reiterated thei main presidential candidates at next Thursday’s election be given the freedom of choice. (11 November 2005)-(Dai
• The LTTE on November 10 accused the military of hara election, when the minority community is expected to p (Daily Mirror on 12 November 2005)
• While assuring a free and fair poll today, President Chan directed the three Armed Forces and the Police not to su quarter and vowed tough action against polls violators. (Da
• Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse, from the nuclear November 18 reached the highest elected office in the c Island on 19 November 2005)

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al Weerawansa charged on October 13 that the LTTE’s alleged e for an unfair presidential election in the north and east. (Daily
ised the Mahinda Chintana manifesto for not having mentioned peace process, stating this clearly showed that Prime Minister lve the country’s national question. (19 October 2005)-(Daily
curity for its members participating in today’s Pongu Thamil festival s of an LTTE plot to assassinate party leader R. Sampanthan and gam. (Daily Mirror on 22 October 2005) d the democratic system, say all politicians, including the Tamil taking the Tamil people for a ride. One leader said TNA comments, that LTTE’s arms strength was the strength of the an insult to democratic Tamils. (The Island on 24 October 2005) aid that the JVP’s call on September 20 for the dissolution of the ince its founder leader Rohana Wijeweera himself said the same his first public speech. atarian Sagala Ratnayake told a media briefing in Colombo that truggle in April 1971 with an attack on the armed forces, labelling olutionary objectives. (The Island on 26 October 2005) November 25 declared that his Government would give highest rocess" to usher in lasting peace through a political solution to the ident Rajapakse was making the policy statement (Throne Speech) opening the second session of the sixth Parliament... He said the ill be revised to ensure the protection of human rights, prevent , safeguard national security, prevent terrorist acts, pave way to d the tsunami in the North-East and also to introduce an open and machinery. (25 November 2005)-(Daily News on 26 November
il Wickremesinghe on November 7 assured about 1,000 Muslim he would setup a separate Muslim affairs ministry if he is elected of the country’s Muslim community. (07 November 2005)-(Daily
ber 8 staged a walk out of the House in protest no sooner Finance commenced presenting the budget in Parliament. The government and Finance Minister Amunugama continued reading his budget g January 1. (08 November 2005)-(The Island on 09 November
esidential poll, the Government on November 8 presented what opulist” and a “give away” Budget but Finance Minister Sarath prepared under difficult conditions it would herald a decade of 05)-(Daily Mirror on 09 November 2005)
ember 11 reiterated their stance not to support either of the two ext Thursday’s election but assured that the Tamil people would (11 November 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 11 November 2005) used the military of harassment ahead of next week's presidential munity is expected to play a decisive role. (11 November 2005)- 2005)
ll today, President Chandrika Kumaratunga last night said she had s and the Police not to succumb to any political pressure from any against polls violators. (Daily Mirror on 17 November 2005) akse, from the nuclear political family of Giruwapattuwa, on st elected office in the country, that of Executive President. (The
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• Polling in the north of the country registered record low of the poll became a reality and armed forces personnel a to come out to vote were prevented from doing so at Ti noon on November 17. (17 November 2005)-(Daily Mirro
• The main opposition UNP which was defeated at pres Elections Commissioner had rejected the party’s reque though election monitors and public officers confirmed th obstruction of voters in the areas. (17 November 2005)-(D
• Outgoing UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrema said tha the Tamils were allowed to exercise their franchise at expected approximately 450,000 votes from the northe Island on November 20 expressing disbelief the LTTE in November 2005)-(The Island on 21 November 2005)
• President Mahinda Rajapakse opted for experience an Ratnasiri Wickramanayake as the new Prime Ministe November 2005)
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) on November ceasefire agreement when it set up road blocks at cross Batticalao district to prevent civilians from crossing ove last Thursday. (22 November 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 23 N
• Top diplomat Jayantha Dhanapala, who recently resigned the government’s Peace Secretariat, has agreed to contin (Daily Mirror on 25 November 2005)
• LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran on November 27 anno maintain the current ceasefire with the government and short time to see how the new President, Mahinda Raja widely awaited Heroes Day speech, Mr. Prabhakaran did the LTTE would be forced to resume the struggle for s the government failed to resolve the conflict soon. (27 November 2005)
• President Mahinda Rajapakse on November 28 respond LTTE leader Prabhakaran by saying that to him the peace favour with anyone, nationally or internationally. (28 November 2005)
• The LTTE on December 1 announced it was ready to d peace talks with the government and the implementa declared it had no intention of resuming the war. (Daily M
• The newly elected President Mahinda Rajapakse has Opposition party, the UNP to take immediate steps t important government instruments like the Constitutio The Police Commission, and the Public Service Comm having come to the end of their legal term of office. (The I
• In a major violation of the Ceasefire Agreement, six soldi by the LTTE which used two powerful claymore mines the Jaffna-Palaly main road. Three civilians were also inju (Daily Mirror on 05 December 2005)
• The Government condemns in the strongest possible ter claymore mine attack at Kondavil, in Jaffna at around 1 p attack, the Army personnel were distributing food ratio sentry points in Jaffna. (04 December 2005)-(Daily News o
• The LTTE has said there is no need to revise or review t as proposed by the new government and instead has calle Mirror on 05 December 2005)
• In the aftermath of the killing of seven soldiers in Jaffna troops were rushed to the peninsula on December 5 to 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 06 December 2005)

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ry registered record lows, as fears of an impending LTTE boycott armed forces personnel and election monitors said civilians eager nted from doing so at Tiger checkpoints in the north and east by ember 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 18 November 2005)
h was defeated at presidential poll said on November 17 the jected the party’s request for a re-poll in the north and east, blic officers confirmed there had been intimidation, violence and s. (17 November 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 19 November 2005)
amarawickrema said that their candidate could have easily won if ercise their franchise at last Thursday's presidential poll. “We votes from the northern and eastern provinces," he told The ing disbelief the LTTE interfered with the election process. (20 21 November 2005) pted for experience and absolute loyalty with the choice of he new Prime Minister of the country. (The Island on 22
n (SLMM) on November 22 ruled that the LTTE had violated the up road blocks at crossing points within uncleared areas in the ilians from crossing over and voting at the presidential election 05)-(Daily Mirror on 23 November 2005) a, who recently resigned from the post of Secretary General of riat, has agreed to continue as the adviser to the peace process. 2005)
an on November 27 announced his movement would continue to ith the government and adopt a “wait and observe” period for a President, Mahinda Rajapakse, dealt with the ethnic issue. In a ech, Mr. Prabhakaran did not give exact time frame and warned esume the struggle for self-determination sometime next year if e the conflict soon. (27 November 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 28
November 28 responded to Sunday’s statement made by the ng that to him the peace process was not about posturing to win or internationally. (28 November 2005)-(The Island on 29
unced it was ready to discuss the immediate resumption of the nt and the implementation of the Ceasefire Agreement and suming the war. (Daily Mirror on 02 December 2005)
ahinda Rajapakse has come under pressure from the main take immediate steps to make appointments to a number of nts like the Constitutional Council, The Election Commission, e Public Service Commission, which have become inoperative, egal term of office. (The Island 03 December 2005) fire Agreement, six soldiers were killed and one injured allegedly werful claymore mines on December 4 evening at Kondavil on e civilians were also injured in the blasts. (04 December 2005)- 005) he strongest possible terms the killing of six Army personnel in a il, in Jaffna at around 1 p.m. on December 4. At the time of the re distributing food rations and mail to Army detachments and mber 2005)-(Daily News on 05 December 2005)
ed to revise or review the current Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) ent and instead has called for its effective implementation. (Daily
f seven soldiers in Jaffna and the resultant tense situation more nsula on December 5 to maintain law and order. (05 December mber 2005)
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• New Army Commander Lt. Gen Sarath Fonseka on Dece have the capability to launch a full scale conventional war He said the strength of the LTTE hardcore members wa were child soldiers and inexperienced cadres. (06 Decem 2005)
• As the new Army Commander Sarath Fonseka assum Colombo, the LTTE carried out yet another claymore m army personnel including an officer, at Irupalai, north of Ja on 07 December 2005)
• Ending weeks of specualtion whether President Mahinda another country as a key facilitator or not, the President role as the main facilitator in Sri Lanka’s peace process. (D
• Norway said on December 8 it would only resume its certain conditions which would be discussed with both interview with the BBC Norway's Minister for Internation Erik Solheim, without elaborating, said the resumption o conditions. While saying he was glad and honoured that in Oslo Mr. Solheim said both parties to the conflict w assist if the parties want to move towards peace. (08 December 2005)
• Presenting the maiden Budget 2006 in Parliament on Dec Mahinda Rajapakse broke the tradition of the august Bud of Parliament and took his budget speech out of a flat file main Opposition party the UNP was in full attendance, w in their numbers, unlike the last Budget of Dr. Sarath A December 2005)-(The Island on 09 December 2005)
• In the first attack on an aircraft since the signing of helicopter, on its way to pick up Italian Deputy Foreign M came under small arms fire from suspected LTTE cadres (Daily Mirror on 15 December 2005)
• The Government on December 16 formally expressed it immediately at any venue. Government spokesman and se a news conference after the Cabinet meeting the governm - be it the cease fire agreement or a final solution to th (Daily Mirror on 17 December 2005)
• TULF leader V. Anandasangaree on December 18 warned the danger in inviting the LTTE to Upcountry areas. (1 December 2005)
• More than 100 suspicious people were taken into custod operation code-named ‘Strangers Night’ in Wella Bambalapitiya police areas, police said on December 18. (1 December 2005)
• Amidst moves by the CWC to form an alliance with Tam support to the cause of the LTTE, estate party leader Ar talks with President Mahinda Rajapakse on December 1 Mirror on 20 December 2005)
• President Mahinda Rajapakse remains firm on his stand Asian country and nowhere else. He informed the JVP demand for talks to be held in Norway on December 20 December 2005)
• In what was described as the eight in a series of attacks d cadres on December 20 attacked a military vehicle at Ko injuring four including two officers. (Daily Mirror on 22 De
• Apparently defying calls by the international community LTTE Sea Tigers on December 22 launched an attack on sea and abducted three sailors, in one of the sea incidents 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 23 December 2005)

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Sarath Fonseka on December 6 asserted that the LTTE does not ll scale conventional war as they had been weakend considerably. E hardcore members was around 4,000 to 5,000 while the rest enced cadres. (06 December 2005)-(The Island on 07 December
Sarath Fonseka assumed duties on December 6 morning in yet another claymore mine attack on the military, killing seven er, at Irupalai, north of Jaffna. (06 December 2005)-(Daily Mirror
ether President Mahinda Rajapakse would replace Norway with or or not, the President yesterday invited Norway to continue its Lanka’s peace process. (Daily Mirror on 08 December 2005)
would only resume its facilitator role in Sri Lanka subject to be discussed with both the Government and the LTTE. In an s Minister for International Development and special peace envoy g, said the resumption of facilitation would be based on certain glad and honoured that President Rajapakse had placed his trust parties to the conflict were in the driving seat and Oslo would ove towards peace. (08 December 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 09
06 in Parliament on December 8, President and Finance Minister dition of the august Budget Box being carried into the Chamber t speech out of a flat file before reading it to a full Chamber. The was in full attendance, with all other political parties represented Budget of Dr. Sarath Amunugama, boycotted by the UNP. (08 09 December 2005) ft since the signing of the ceasefire agreement, an Air Force Italian Deputy Foreign Minister and his officials from Arugam Bay suspected LTTE cadres yesterday evening, military sources said. 005) 16 formally expressed its readiness to start talks with the LTTE nment spokesman and senior Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva told inet meeting the government was also ready to discuss any thing - or a final solution to the ethnic conflict. (16 December 2005)- 005) on December 18 warned CWC leader Arumugam Thondaman of to Upcountry areas. (18 December 2005)-(The Island on 19
were taken into custody following a massive cordon and search gers Night’ in Wellawatta, Narahenpita, Kirulapone and said on December 18. (18 December 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 19
rm an alliance with Tamil parties outside the North east to offer E, estate party leader Arumugam Thondaman also held extensive ajapakse on December 18 evening. (18 December 2005)-(Daily
mains firm on his stand that peace talks can only be held in an e. He informed the JVP that he will not agree to the LTTE’s orway on December 20. (20 December 2005)-(The Island on 21
ht in a series of attacks during the past 24 hours, suspected LTTE d a military vehicle at Kodikamam in Jaffna killing one soldier and
s. (Daily Mirror on 22 December 2005) international community to immediately end violence, suspected 22 launched an attack on two Navy patrol boats off the Mannar one of the sea incidents since the 2002 ceasefire. (22 December mber 2005)
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• In the worst ceasefire violation by the LTTE todate, 15 two Claymore mine explosions at Mannar around 2.30 heading towards Nadukudah in Pesalai when the two m caught fire after the explosion, police sources in Mannar 24 December 2005)
• Unidentified gunmen, in the early hours on December National List MP Joseph Pararajasingham at St. Mary's Ca Batticaloa while attending Christmas Mass. (24 December
• A senior PLOTE member identified as V. Thripupathy, a suspected LTTE cadres on December 26 evening at Ram was injured. (26 December 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 27 Dec
• The violence and tension in the north continued on D including two military intelligence men, being killed and mine attack at Puloly West on the Jaffna-Point Pedro road 2005)-(Daily Mirror on 28 December 2005)
• As tension mounted in the north and east after the rece Muslim students vacated the University of Jaffna and le morning. The students left in the middle of examinations b December 2005)
• The recent series of massive cordon and search operatio intelligence reports that the LTTE was targeting the including President Mahinda Rajapakse, a senior police of (Daily Mirror on 03 January 2006)
• Thirteen sailors are presumed dead after the LTTE ramm Fast Attack Craft (FAC) near the Trincomalee harbour d January 2006)-(The Island on 08 January 2006)
• President Mahinda Rajapakse on January 9 assured the government would act with restraint despite a spate o warned it would be obliged to take all necessary measur 2006)-(Daily Mirror on 10 January 2006)
• US ambassador to Sri Lanka, Jeffrey Lunstead, told a mee wanted the LTTE to stop its "violent activities" and retu LTTE chooses to abandon peace, however, we want it t capable and more determined Sri Lankan military," Lunste war to be high." (The Island on 11 January 2006)
• Five vehicles were damaged on January 14 when a susp parking lot of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) from the area. This was the first direct attack on the SLM several weeks after the cease-fire agreement was signed Island on 15 January 2006)
• Two civilians and one soldier was killed and 13 troops, in two claymore mine blasts allegedly carried out by the LT military official said on January 17. (17 January 2006)-(Daily
• Ahead of the fourth anniversary of the cease-fire agreem January 18 queried whether there was a cease-fire in Mirror on 19 January 2006)
• Representatives of 15 political parties met on January invitation of President Mahinda Rajapakse for an process.Explaining the objectives of the meeting the developing a consensus among political parties represen peace talks. (19 January 2006)-(Daily Mirror on 20 January
• At least three soldiers were killed and two soldiers injure claymore mine on a route clearing patrol in Batticaloa on (23 January 2006)-(Daily Mirror on 24 January 2006)

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by the LTTE todate, 15 Navy men were killed and 16 wounded in at Mannar around 2.30 p.m. on December 23. A Navy bus was Pesalai when the two mines were set off hitting the bus which olice sources in Mannar said. (23 December 2005)-(The Island on
ly hours on December 24, assassinated TULF veteran and TNA singham at St. Mary's Cathedral church, situated on Central Road, as Mass. (24 December 2005)-(The Island on 26 December 2005) fied as V. Thripupathy, alias Thiruppathy Master, was shot dead by mber 26 evening at Rambakulam in Eravur while another member )-(Daily Mirror on 27 December 2005)
north continued on December 27 with at least eleven soldiers, e men, being killed and five injured in yet another LTTE claymore e Jaffna-Point Pedro road in Jaffna around 12.50 p.m. (27 December mber 2005) h and east after the recent spate of killings, around 80 Sinhala and iversity of Jaffna and left for their hometowns on December 28 middle of examinations being held at the campus. (The Island on 29
don and search operations in Colombo were carried out following TTE was targeting the assassination of several political leaders pakse, a senior police officer said on January 2. (02 January 2006)- 6)
ead after the LTTE rammed an explosives-laden boat into a Dvora e Trincomalee harbour during the early hours of on January 7. (07 January 2006)
January 9 assured the Co-Chairs of the peace process that the traint despite a spate of truce-breaking attacks by the LTTE but ake all necessary measures to prevent further attacks. (09 January ry 2006)
rey Lunstead, told a meeting of businessmen here that Washington iolent activities" and return to peace talks with Colombo. "If the , however, we want it to be clear, they will face a stronger, more i Lankan military," Lunstead said. "We want the cost of a return to 1 January 2006) January 14 when a suspected pressure bomb exploded inside the nitoring Mission (SLMM) in Batticaloa, said a senior police officer direct attack on the SLMM since the monitors arrived in Sri Lanka, e agreement was signed in February 2003. (14 January 2006)-(The
s killed and 13 troops, including 12 Navy personnel, were injured in dly carried out by the LTTE in Trincomalee and Jaffna yesterday, a
. (17 January 2006)-(Daily Mirror on 18 January 2006) of the cease-fire agreement, the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission on ere was a cease-fire in place in reality. (18 January 2006)-(Daily
parties met on January 19 at the Presidential Secretariat on the da Rajapakse for an All Party Conference on the peace s of the meeting the President emphasized the importance of political parties represented in Parliament with a view to starting
aily Mirror on 20 January 2006) d and two soldiers injured when suspected LTTE cadres exploded a ng patrol in Batticaloa on January 23 morning, military sources said. on 24 January 2006)
6

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• In what is seen as a softening of the government’s stand, 24 told Norwegian special envoy Eric Solheim he was r peace talks with the LTTE, the Daily Mirror learns. Hig expressed readiness to have talks in a European venue li Norwegian capital of Oslo as a second option. (24 Janu 2006)
• The UNP on January 25 decided to rethink its unconditio to get peace negotiations back on track because some Government with Cabinet portfolios and other perks. ( January 2006)
• UNP stalwarts Mahinda Samarasinghe and Keheliya Ram and were sworn in before President Mahinda Rajapakse a Presidential Secretariat. (25 January 2006)-(The Island on 2
• Switzerland, the US and the UN on January 26 welcome between the Government and the Liberation Tigers of T city of Geneva has been mutually chosen as the venue welcomed the breakthrough in the peace process. (26 Jan 2006)
• The LTTE has warned the Muslims over the presence o The Island learns. This comes in the backdrop of two killin on January 24 night and the following morning. The LTTE carrying out the killings and intimidating the Tamil civilia 2006)
• Rebel LTTE Commander and leader of the T (TMVP)Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan alias Karuna yester a temporary halt to all its self defence campaigns’. (The Isla
• An LTTE front which had earlier claimed responsibility fo the military in the North, on February 2 warned that it w against the army if the harassment of Tamils did not cease Mirror on 03 February 2006)
• The future of the upcoming talks in Geneva was thrown on February 3 gave in to pressure from the JVP and u agencies to postpone a scheduled visit to the rebel strong February 2006)
• The LTTE’s efforts to put the onus of disarming Ka convenient way of shifting responsibility, says Jayantha Tigers during his 18 months as head of the Secretaria (SCOPP). (The Island on 12 February 2006)
• The SLMC on February 12 reiterated its demand for a se talks despite the government’s decision to accommodate 2006)-(Daily Mirror on 13 February 2006)
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa said on February 13 rul homeland in the north and east, but said he would rein in ahead of crunch talks. (13 February 2006)-(Daily Mirror o
*
For the purpose of accuracy, un-dated indicators (in the repro "yesterday/today/tomorrow" are edited to indicate their exact

Page x
7
the government’s stand, President Mahinda Rajapakse on January y Eric Solheim he was ready to compromise on the venue for Daily Mirror learns. Highly placed sources said the government s in a European venue like Geneva and would even consider the second option. (24 January 2006)-(Daily Mirror on 25 January
to rethink its unconditional support pledged to the Government on track because some of its MPs were being enticed by the folios and other perks. (25 January 2006)-(Daily Mirror on 26
singhe and Keheliya Rambukwella joined the UPFA government ent Mahinda Rajapakse as Cabinet Ministers on January 25 at the ary 2006)-(The Island on 26 January 2006)
on January 26 welcomed moves to resume direct negotiations he Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Switzerland, whose lly chosen as the venue for the ceasefire talks by both parties, he peace process. (26 January 2006)-(Daily Mirror on 27 January
ims over the presence of an armed Muslim group in the Muttur the backdrop of two killings in the government controlled Muttur wing morning. The LTTE has accused the armed Muslim group of midating the Tamil civilian population. (The Island on 30 January
d leader of the Tamil Eala Makkal Vduthalai Pulikal haran alias Karuna yesterday declared a 'Unilateral Ceasefire and ence campaigns’. (The Island on 31 January 2006)
claimed responsibility for the series of claymore mine attacks on ruary 2 warned that it would be forced to resume its violent acts t of Tamils did not cease immediately. (02 February 2006)-(Daily
in Geneva was thrown into more turmoil after the government ure from the JVP and urged the heads of international donor d visit to the rebel stronghold of Kilinochchi. (Daily Mirror on 04
onus of disarming Karuna entirely on the government is a onsibility, says Jayantha Dhanapala, who dealt closely with the s head of the Secretariat for Coordinating the Peace Process ruary 2006)
rated its demand for a separate Muslim delegation at the Geneva ecision to accommodate only one Muslim delegate. (12 February ary 2006)
id on February 13 ruled out LTTE demands for a separate but said he would rein in armed groups - a central rebel demand ary 2006)-(Daily Mirror on 14 February 2006)
d indicators (in the reproduced news items) such as d to indicate their exact date.
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED
TO 03RD
MARCH 2006
The following are the significant trends observed in the important to note that this particular wave of PCI have exc sample due to the level of violence in the months before. T cover the entire Tamil community, reported opinion of the precise as the opinion of the other three communi representation of the sample, this report does not intend to
♦ When asked to rate four national issues according to Sinhala community gives the highest priority to the pe the economy (32.2%) and law and order (18.9%). The equal importance to the economy (33.6%) and the pe law and order (17.3%) and tsunami recovery (15.2%). T gives high priority to the peace process (34.7%) follow law and order (19.4%). When compared to the Septem of importance given to the peace process has incre 27.3%,Feb- 34.3%) , Muslim (Sep-27.5%,Feb- 33.8%) 31.9%,Feb- 34.7%) communities (Ref. Page 13)
♦ A majority of Sinhala (95%), Muslim (84.7%) and Up-Co
believe that the Government and the LTTE should go negotiations. When compared to the September 200 those who agree among the Sinhala community (Septe has increased, while amongst the Muslim community ( ‘06-84.7%) the percentage of those who agree to a negotiations has significantly decreased. (Ref. Page 14)
♦ When asked about the likelihood of a resumption of w and Muslim (38.8%) communities state that it is somew Country Tamil (30.8%) community state they don’t k situation. (Ref. Page 15)
♦ Asked about the political leadership of the Mahinda Raj taking forward the peace process, a majority of the Si communities belive that Mahinda Rajapakse’s gove leadership. The Up-Country Tamil community has a Strong Political Leadership- 8.1%, Sufficient Political Le all- 38.7%, Don’t know/ not sure- 24.2%). (Ref. Page 16)
♦ Asked about the political leadership of the Mahinda Ra
resumption of war, a majority of the Sinhala (59.1%) believe that Mahinda Rajapakse’s government has a str Country Tamil community has a mixed opinion in Leadership- 5%, Sufficient Political Leadership- 18.3%, know/ not sure- 26.7%). (Ref. Page 17)
1 For the purpose of accuracy, un-dated indicators (in the repro "yesterday/today/tomorrow" are edited to indicate their exact d

ndex
E POLL CONDUCTED FROM
2006 O 03RD
MARCH 20061
trends observed in the PCI February 2006 survey. It is lar wave of PCI have excluded the North and East from its in the months before. Therefore, as the survey does not , reported opinion of the Tamil community may not be as other three communities. Further, due to the low report does not intend to present national estimations.
ional issues according to their degree of importance, the ighest priority to the peace process (34.3%) followed by and order (18.9%). The Muslim community gives almost omy (33.6%) and the peace process (33.8%) followed by nami recovery (15.2%). The Up-Country Tamil community e process (34.7%) followed by the economy (26.9%) and compared to the September 2005 PCI findings, the degree peace process has increased amongst the Sinhala (Sep- (Sep-27.5%,Feb- 33.8%) and Up-Country Tamil (Sep- s (Ref. Page 13)
uslim (84.7%) and Up-Country Tamil (90.6%) communities nd the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through to the September 2005 PCI findings, the percentage of inhala community (September ‘05- 84.9%, February- 95%) the Muslim community (September ‘05- 96.1%%, February those who agree to a permanent settlement through creased. (Ref. Page 14)
od of a resumption of war, a majority of Sinhala (34.3%) ies state that it is somewhat likely. A majority of the Up- unity state they don’t know or are not sure about the
rship of the Mahinda Rajapakse government in successfully ess, a majority of the Sinhala (63.5%) and Muslim (59.4%) hinda Rajapakse’s government has a strong political Tamil community has a mixed opinion in this regard. ( 1%, Sufficient Political Leadership- 29%, No Leadership at re- 24.2%). (Ref. Page 16)
ership of the Mahinda Rajapakse government, if there is a of the Sinhala (59.1%) and Muslim (54.8%) communities e’s government has a strong political leadership. The Up- as a mixed opinion in this regard. ( Strong Political tical Leadership- 18.3%, No Leadership at all- 50%, Don’t Page 17)
indicators (in the reproduced news items) such as to indicate their exact date.
2006
17TH F
EBRUARY
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♦ When asked about the Government’s commitment to
the Sinhala (80%), Muslim (62.1%) and Up-Country T that the Government is committed to find peace thr September 2005 PCI findings, the percentage of th increased amongst the Sinhala, Muslim and Up-Country Sinhala: 52.8%, Muslim: 49%, Up-Country Tamil: 38.2%)
♦ When asked about the government’s capability in findin
of the Sinhala (65%), Muslim (64.2%) and Up-Country that the Government is capable of finding peace thro September 2005 PCI findings, those who agree amon 65%), Muslim (Sep- 60.6%, Feb-64.2%) and Up-Countr communities have significantly increased. (Ref. Page 19)
♦ When asked about the LTTE’s commitment to find pea Sinhala community (56.1%) disagree on the LTTE’s co talks. This is a significant decrease in opinion since Sept the percentage of the Sinhala community who agree th peace through talks has increased by 4.2% since Sep Muslim (40.9%) and Up-Country Tamil communities committed to find peace through talks. When compa findings, the percentage of those who agree amongst t (September -48%, February- 63.5 %) has significantly i higher percentage amongst the Sinhala (36.6%), Muslim (28.6%) communities do not know or are not sure of a
♦ When asked about the LTTE’s capability of finding peac
Muslim (41.8%) and Up-Country Tamil (59.3%) com capable of finding peace through talks. A majority of t not know or are not sure whereas in the September 2 community disagreed (37.7%) with the statement tha peace through talks. Amongst the Muslim community, t 41.8%) and those who state don’t know/not sure (Sep while those who disagree (Sep-35.4%, Feb-25.4%) h Country Tamil community those who agree (Sep-43.2 5.4%, Feb-8.5%) has increased while those who don’t k 32.2%) has decreased. (Ref. Page 21)
♦ Of those who are aware of the CFA, a majority of th
and Up-Country Tamil (97.6%) communities believe th should continue to adhere to the CFA in its current for
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (67.3%), Muslim (75.9%)
communities believe that the CFA has brought many b comparison with the September 2005 PCI findings, tho significantly increased amongst the Sinhala (Sep-57.2% 67.9%, Feb-75.9%) communities. However, those who Tamil (Sep-95.2%, Feb-94.7%) community has marginall (Ref. Page 23)
♦ Of the people who believe the CFA has benefited th that the ending of killings is the most significant benefit

ndex
nment’s commitment to the peace process, a majority of .1%) and Up-Country Tamil (49.2%) communities agree itted to find peace through talks. In comparison to the s, the percentage of those who agree has significantly , Muslim and Up-Country Tamil communities (September- p-Country Tamil: 38.2%). (Ref. Page 18)
ment’s capability in finding peace through talks, a majority 64.2%) and Up-Country Tamil (46.8%) communities agree ble of finding peace through talks. In comparison to the those who agree amongst the Sinhala (Sep- 62.4%, Feb- b-64.2%) and Up-Country Tamil (Sep- 38.2%, Feb-46.8%) increased. (Ref. Page 19)
commitment to find peace through talks, a majority of the agree on the LTTE’s commitment to find peace through ase in opinion since September 2005 (72.8%). Interestingly community who agree that the LTTE is committed to find ased by 4.2% since September 2005. A majority of the try Tamil communities (63.5%) agree that the LTTE is ugh talks. When compared to the September 2005 PCI se who agree amongst the Up-Country Tamil community 3.5 %) has significantly increased. It is noteworthy that a e Sinhala (36.6%), Muslim (34.8%) and Up-Country Tamil now or are not sure of an answer. (Ref. Page 20)
capability of finding peace through talks, a majority of the try Tamil (59.3%) communities agree that the LTTE is gh talks. A majority of the Sinhala community (40.1%) do reas in the September 2005 PCI, a majority of the Sinhala with the statement that the LTTE is capable of finding the Muslim community, those who agree (Sep-38.4%, Feb- on’t know/not sure (Sep-26.3%, Feb-32.8%) has increased ep-35.4%, Feb-25.4%) has decreased. Amongst the Up- se who agree (Sep-43.2%, Feb-59.3%) and disagree (Sep- while those who don’t know or not sure (Sep-51.4%, Feb- ge 21)
e CFA, a majority of the Sinhala (85.2%), Muslim (98.2%) ) communities believe that the government and the LTTE he CFA in its current form. (Ref. Page 22)
7.3%), Muslim (75.9%) and Up-Country Tamil (94.7%) CFA has brought many benefits to the ordinary citizen. In r 2005 PCI findings, those who support this argument has t the Sinhala (Sep-57.2%, Feb-67.3%), and Muslim (Sep- s. However, those who support amongst the Up-Country community has marginally dropped since September 2005.
e CFA has benefited the ordinary citizen, 38.7% believe e most significant benefit of the CFA. While 20.7% believe
2006
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that freedom of movement is the most important ben ending of destruction is the most important benefit of t
♦ When asked how satisfied they are with the Governm
majority of the Muslim (66.4%) and Up-country somewhat satisfied with the Government’s commit community has a divided opinion. (Very Satisfied-45.3% Satisfied-6.4%, Not Satisfied at all-3.5%). (Ref. Page 25)
♦ When asked how satisfied they are with the LTTE’s co of the Sinhala (45.7%) community state that they are n (53.8%) and Up-Country Tamil (48.4%) communities satisfied with the LTTE commitment to the CFA. (Ref. P
♦ Of those who are aware of the involvement of fore
Sinhala (69.3%), Muslim (74.4%) and Up-Country Tamil it is essential to have a monitoring mission for the C compared to the September 2005 PCI findings, the p (September-58.8%, February-69.3%) who agree h percentages of the Muslim (September- 77.5%, Februa (September-93.5%, February-86.7%) communities has d
♦ With regard to the country that should chair the S (55.3%) and Up-Country Tamil (54.1%) communitie continue to chair the SLMM. However the Sinhala com regard (Norway- 24.9%, some other country- 38%, do Page 28)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (56.7%) disagree monitoring of the CFA. However, according to the S percentage of Sinhala community who disagree ha (September- 60.2%, February- 56.7%). A majority of the Tamil (90%) communities agree that the SLMM is impa This is a significant increase in opinion since Septemb Up-Country Tamil -54.3%). (Ref. Page 29)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (45.7%) disagree monitoring of the ceasefire agreement. However, t comparison to the September 2005 PCI findings (S majority of Muslim (48.5%) and Up-Country Tamil (89 SLMM is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire increase of opinion when compared to the September Up-Country Tamil- 39.1%). (Ref. Page 30)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (52.8%), Muslim (64.2%)
communities believe that an international third party as essential and will have a positive impact on the peace p
♦ When asked about their level of satisfaction with the N
the peace negotiations, a majority of the Sinhala (44%) Tamil (61%) communities state that they are satisfied. (R

ndex
the most important benefit, another 16% believe that the
st important benefit of the CFA. (Ref. Page 24)
y are with the Government’s commitment to the CFA, a .4%) and Up-country Tamil (47.6%) communities are Government’s commitment to the CFA. The Sinhala ion. (Very Satisfied-45.3%, Somewhat Satisfied-44.8%, Not
all-3.5%). (Ref. Page 25)
y are with the LTTE’s commitment to the CFA, a majority nity state that they are not satisfied. A majority of Muslim il (48.4%) communities state that they are somewhat tment to the CFA. (Ref. Page 26)
the involvement of foreign monitors, a majority of the ) and Up-Country Tamil (86.7%) communities believe that itoring mission for the CFA to succeed. However when 2005 PCI findings, the percentage of Sinhala community 69.3%) who agree has significantly increased. The ptember- 77.5%, February-74.4%) and Up-Country Tamil 6.7%) communities has decreased. (Ref. Page 27)
that should chair the SLMM, a majority of the Muslim mil (54.1%) communities believe that Norway should owever the Sinhala community has a mixed opinion in this other country- 38%, don’t know/ not sure- 37.1%).(Ref.
munity (56.7%) disagree that the SLMM is impartial in its ever, according to the September 2005 PCI findings, the unity who disagree has decreased in February 2006 56.7%). A majority of the Muslim (45.5%) and Up-Country e that the SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of the CFA. opinion since September 2005 (Sep: Muslim-31.9%, and ef. Page 29)
munity (45.7%) disagree that the SLMM is effective in its agreement. However, this is a decrease in opinion in r 2005 PCI findings (Sep: Sinhala Disagree – 57%). A d Up-Country Tamil (89.5%) communities agree that the itoring of the ceasefire agreement. This is a significant pared to the September ’05 PCI findings (Muslim- 32.4%, ef. Page 30)
2.8%), Muslim (64.2%) and Up-Country Tamil (56.7%) ternational third party as a facilitator to the negotiations is e impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 31)
of satisfaction with the Norwegian Government facilitating rity of the Sinhala (44%), Muslim (65.1%) and Up-Country
that they are satisfied. (Ref. Page 32)
2006
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ Asked as to whether they approve or disapprove of N peace process, a majority of Muslim (60.7%) and Up-Co approve. A majority of the Sinhala (41.5%) community to facilitate the peace process. (Ref. Page 33)
♦ Of the 64.4% who are aware of Erik Solheim’s invo process as the Norwegian special envoy, a majority Country Tamil (73.7%) communities state that they ar envoy. A majority of the Sinhala (45%) community sta Page 34-35)
♦ When asked about their opinion on the need for Indi peace process, a majority of the Sinhala (41.7%), Musli (50%) communities believe that it is essential and will 36)
♦ After the November 2005 presidential elections, viole
the North and East. Therefore respondents were ask for the escalation of violence. In response, a majority believe that the LTTE is responsible for the escalation of the Muslim (53.8%) and Up-Country Tamil (54.1%) not sure. (Ref. Page 37)
♦ Only 45.3% of the respondents are aware that the Un that a return to war would be at a very high cost and a to arise, the US would strengthen its military assista Page 38)
♦ When asked about the impact of such warnings and po States on the Sri Lankan peace process, a majority o believe that it will have a positive impact. A majority Country Tamil (85.7%) communities believe that it w peace process. (Ref. Page 39)
♦ Of the 40.7% who are aware of the All Party Confer
2006, a majority of the Sinhala (91.4%), Muslim (93.3% communities believe that the all party conference had process. (Ref. Page 40-41)
♦ Various people express various opinions with regard to
on holding talks with the LTTE. Some prefer a cons while others prefer a multi party consensus. Accord majority of the Sinhala (70.8%), Muslim (77.3%) communities state that they prefer a multiparty consen
♦ Asked about the impact of February 2006 talks in G
majority of the Sinhala (72%), Muslim (65.2%) a communities believe that it will have a positive impact. (
♦ When asked about the importance of the Geneva talks level, a majority of the Sinhala (60.8%), Muslim (80.9% communities believe that it is very important. (Ref. Page

ndex
rove or disapprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the uslim (60.7%) and Up-Country Tamil (49.3%) communities hala (41.5%) community disapprove of Norway continuing
(Ref. Page 33)
of Erik Solheim’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace ecial envoy, a majority of the Muslim (63.8%) and Up- unities state that they are satisfied with his role as special ala (45%) community state that they are dissatisfied. (Ref.
ion on the need for India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan he Sinhala (41.7%), Muslim (70.1%) and Up-Country Tamil t it is essential and will have a positive impact. (Ref. Page
esidential elections, violence has escalated significantly in e respondents were asked who they think is responsible In response, a majority of the Sinhala community (47.4%) nsible for the escalation of violence. However, a majority -Country Tamil (54.1%) communities don’t know or are
s are aware that the United States has warned the LTTE at a very high cost and also that were such an eventuality gthen its military assistance programs to Sri Lanka. (Ref.
of such warnings and potential assistance from the United ce process, a majority of the Sinhala (74.3%) community sitive impact. A majority of the Muslim (70.4%) and Up- unities believe that it will have a negative impact on the
of the All Party Conference held on the 19th of January, a (91.4%), Muslim (93.3%) and Up-Country Tamil (62.5%) all party conference had a positive impact on the peace
s opinions with regard to the southern political consensus E. Some prefer a consensus between the UNP and PA party consensus. According to the ethnic breakdown, a .8%), Muslim (77.3%) and Up-Country Tamil (51.5%) efer a multiparty consensus. (Ref. Page 42)
ebruary 2006 talks in Geneva on the peace process, a %), Muslim (65.2%) and Up-Country Tamil (62.1%) l have a positive impact. (Ref. Page 43)
ance of the Geneva talks to the respondents at a personal (60.8%), Muslim (80.9%) and Up-Country Tamil (67.9%) ery important. (Ref. Page 44)
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♦ When asked about the main reason for the Sri L participate in the Geneva talks, a majority of the Sinha (55.2%) communities state that it is because of their co A majority of the Muslim (53.2%) community state pressure. (Ref. Page 45)
♦ When asked about the main reason for the LTTE to a
talks, a majority of the Sinhala (43.4%) and Muslim (48 due to international pressure. A majority of the Up-C state that it is because of their commitment to the peac
♦ When asked how essential the participation of a Mus talks is, a majority of the Sinhala (56.2%) and Muslim (9 essential. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil com opinion in this regard. (Is Essential-32.1%, Is not essent needed at all- 21.4%, Don’t know/ Not sure- 28.6%). (Re
♦ According to various news reports, there has been an
operations of civilians by police and armed forces in months. When asked whether they consider this to be anti-crime measure, a majority of the Sinhala (57.4%) co crime measure. A majority of the Muslim (42.4%) comm terrorism measure. A majority of the Up-Country Tam or not sure. (Ref. Page 48)
For further information plea
Pradeep Peiris or Rangani R
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Altern
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@ Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://w

ndex
reason for the Sri Lankan Government to agree to , a majority of the Sinhala (68.4%) and Up-Country Tamil t it is because of their commitment to the peace process. 3.2%) community state that it is due to international
eason for the LTTE to agree to participate in the Geneva (43.4%) and Muslim (48.9%) communities state that it is A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (64.3%) community commitment to the peace process. (Ref. Page 46)
e participation of a Muslim representative in the Geneva la (56.2%) and Muslim (91.5%) communities state that it is Up-Country Tamil community seems to have a mixed ntial-32.1%, Is not essential- but a ‘good thing’- 17.9%, Not ow/ Not sure- 28.6%). (Ref. Page 47)
orts, there has been an increase in the cordon and search ice and armed forces in the south during the last two they consider this to be an anti-terrorism measure or an of the Sinhala (57.4%) community consider this as an anti- the Muslim (42.4%) community consider this to be an anti- y of the Up-Country Tamil (60%) community don’t know
further information please contact:
adeep Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
2370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 1 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
2006
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13
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Peace Confidence Index ( May 2001 – February 20
Important Issues Rating the degree of importance of four national issues.
Ethnic Breakdow
19.0 Up-country Tamil
19.4
26.9
24.5
14.7
18.9
0 10 20 30
%
Changes of opinion in Sinhala, Muslim and Up-Cou
29.5 32.2 27.6 33.6
2
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
15.2
Muslim
17.3
19.0
Tamil
22.3
Sinhala
100%
90%
13.4 14.7
16.9
15.2
1
80%
70%
27.3
34.3
27.5
0%
Sinhala Sep '05
33.8
60%
3
50%
40%
20.9
18.9
14.1
17.3
1
30%
20%
10%
Sinhala
Muslim Sep
Muslim Feb
Up-C Feb '06
'05
'06
Tam

x
eace Confidence Index (PCI) May 2001 – February 2006
f four national issues.
Ethnic Breakdown
19.0
34.7 19.4
26.9
4.7
34.3 18.9
32.2
20 30 40
The Tsunami Recovery
5.2
33.8
The peace process in Sri Lanka 17.3
33.6
Law and Order
19.0
The Economy 34.2 22.3
24.5
, Muslim and Up-Country Tamil communities
.9
15.2
17.8 19.0
.6 33.6
27.2
26.9
Sep Muslim Feb
'06
The Tsunami Recovery
.5
33.8
31.9 34.7
The peace process in Sri Law Lanka
and Order
The Economy .1
17.3
15.4
19.4
Up-Country Tamil Sep '05
Up- Country Tamil Feb '06
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Solutions With the recent escalation of violence, various opinions ha Agreement (CFA). In this context, some people say tha better than pursuing a permanent settlement. Others argu bad and, therefore the Government and the LTTE shoul through negotiations or war. Please tell me which of the ar
Ethnic Breakdown
8.7
Up-country Tamil
0.4
3.3
1.4
0 20 40 60 80 1
%
Changes of Opinion amongst the Sinhala and mu
84.9
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
90 0.4
6.6
Muslim
6
67.4
3.7
84.7 2.7
16.8
Tamil
4.2
11.6
Sinhala
100%
4.4
1
7.1
3.3
3.7
1.9
6 90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
95.0
96.1
8 40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
3
1.4 1 2.7 September '05 February '06 September '05 Febru
Sinhala Muslim

x
nce, various opinions have been expressed about the Ceasefire t, some people say that the continuation of this situation is settlement. Others argue that continuation of this situation is ent and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution, either e tell me which of the arguments best describes your opinion.
Ethnic Breakdown
95.0
No response/ Refuse to answ er 90.6
84.7
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through w ar
67.4
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution
60 80 100
st the Sinhala and muslim communities
1 1.9
6.6
96.1
84.7
1 2.7 September '05 February '06
Muslim
6
No response/ Refuse to answ er
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through w ar
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Given the current situation in the country, how likely is i
Ethnic Breakdown
7.7
30.8
Up-country Tamil
21.5
8.7
21.5
11.7
0 10 20 30 40
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
26.2 13.8
11.9
14.9
Muslim
19.4
23.9
34.3
38.8 14.9
25 12.5 Tamil
25
29.2 8.3
Sinhala

x
e country, how likely is it that war will resume?
hnic Breakdown
30.8
1.5
1.5
34.3
30 40 50
%
26.2
23.9
Don't know / Not sure
Very unlikely
38.8
Somew hat unlikley
Somew hat likely 25
Very likely 25
29.2
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How would you rate the political leadership of the Mahinda taking forward the peace process? Do you think his govern sufficient political leadership or no political leadership at all
Ethnic Breakdown
24.2 Up-country
38.7 Tamil
29 8.1
3.1
Muslim
17.2
20.3
0.1
3.5
32.8
63.5
0 20 40 60
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
59.4
17
Tamil
35.3
41.2
23.5
Sinhala

x
leadership of the Mahinda Rajapakse government in successfully Do you think his government has a strong political leadership, political leadership at all?
thnic Breakdown
8.7
Don't know /Not sure
No leadership at all
Sufficient political leadership 59.4
Strong political leadership
41.2 .3
63.5
0 60 80
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How would you rate the political leadership of the Mahin resumption of war? Do you think his government has a political leadership or no political leadership at all?
Ethnic Breakdown
26.7 Up-country Tamil
59.1
0 20 40 60
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
50
0.4
18.3 5
3.2
Muslim
17.7
24.2
6.0
34.5
54.8
0
Tamil
23.5
64.7
11.8
Sinhala

x
leadership of the Mahinda Rajapakse government if there is a k his government has a strong political leadership, sufficient leadership at all?
thnic Breakdown
50
59.1
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
No leadership at all
54.8
Sufficient political leadership
Strong political leadership
.5
64.7
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Confidence I think the Government is committed to find peace through
Ethnic Breakdown
32.3 Up-country Tamil
18.5
15
80
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes of Opinion amongst the Sinhala, Muslim
Tamil communities
52.8
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
49.2
5.9
19.7 Muslim
18.2
62.1
35 Tamil
25
40
Sinhala
100%
90%
21
15
20.6 19.7
80%
5.9
42.1 70%
26.2
30.4
18.2
60%
50%
19.7 40%
0%
September '05
79 30%
20%
62.1 49
38.2 10%
February
September
February
Septembe '06
'05
'06
'05
Sinhala Muslim Up-co

x
ted to find peace through talks.
thnic Breakdown
49.2
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree 62.1
0
80
60 80 100
%
the Sinhala, Muslim and Up-Country communities
19.7
18.2
42.1
32.3
Don't know /Not sure
18.5
Disagree
19.7
Agree
62.1
38.2
r February
'06
49.2
September '05
February '06
slim Up-country Tamil
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Government is fully capable of finding peace thro
Ethnic Breakdown
37.1 Up-country Tamil
16.1
42.1
24.4
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
Changes of Opinion amongst the Sinhala, Muslim
Tamil communities
62.4
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
46.8
10.6
19.4 Muslim
16.4
31.6 Tamil
26.3
Sinhala
100%
90%
19
24.4
19.2 19.4
80%
42 70%
18.5
10.6 20.2
16.4
60%
50%
19 40%
30%
65
60.6
64.2
20%
38 10%
0%
September '05
February
September
February
Septe '06
'05
'06
'0
Sinhala Muslim Up

x
able of finding peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
37.1
65
30 40 50 60 70
%
46.8
6.3
.4
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
st the Sinhala, Muslim and Up-Country il communities
6
64.2
31.6
42.1
2 19.4
42.1
37.1
ber February
'06
Don't know /Not sure 2
16.4
Disagree
Agree 19.7
16.1
64.2
38.2
46.8
September '05
February '06
Muslim Up-country Tamil
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamil
28.6 7.9
36.6
7.3
0 20 40 60
%
Changes of Opinion amongst the Sinhala, Muslim an
communities
3.1
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
63.5
34.8 Muslim
24.2
40.9
35 Tamil
15
50
Sinhala
56.1
100%
90%
24.1 80%
36.6
30.7
34.8
46 70%
60%
50%
43.6
24.2
5.
40%
72.8
56.1 30%
20%
40.9
48
10%
25.7
0%
September '05
7.3
February
September
February
Septe '06
'05
'06
'0
Sinhala Muslim Up

x
ind peace through talks.
ic Breakdown
50
63.5
8
40.9
.6
56.1
60 80
6
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
e Sinhala, Muslim and Up-Country Tamil
mmunities
34.8
28.6
46.7
40.9
r February
'06
Don't know /Not sure
7.9
Disagree
Agree 24.2
5.3
63.5 48
September '05
February '06
uslim Up-country Tamil
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is fully capable of finding peace through ta
Ethnic Breakdown
25.2
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
32.2 Up-country Tamil
8.5
32.8 Muslim
25.4
40.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 6
%
Changes of Opinion amongst the Sinha Country Tamil communi
34.4
25.2
41.8
35 Tamil
20
34.8
45
Sinhala
100%
September '05
26.3
32.8
51.4
0%
27.9 80%
40.1
60%
37.7
35.4
25.4
40%
34.8
5.4
20%
38.4
41.8 43.2
February
September
February
Septem '06
'05
'06
'05
Sinhala Muslim Up-c

x
finding peace through talks.
nic Breakdown
32.2
45
40 50 60 70
%
59.3
32.8
34.8
41.8
35
40.1
6
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
amongst the Sinhala, Muslim and Up- ntry Tamil communities
32.8
32.2
51.4
41.8 43.2
ber February
'06
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree 8.5
Agree 25.4
5.4
59.3
September '05
February '06
Muslim Up-country Tamil
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) Do you think that the government and the LTTE should co current form?
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-Country Tamil
2.4
Muslim
1.8
Tamil
0
Sinhala
14.8
85.2
0 20 40 60 80
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006

x
)
and the LTTE should continue to adhere to the CFA in its
nic Breakdown
85.2
97.6
60 80 100 120
%
No
98.2
Yes
100
6
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23
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Some people say that the CFA has brought many benefits that the CFA has not yielded any benefits to them. In yo from the CFA or not?
Ethnic Breakdown
5.3 Up country Tamils
0.0
7.4 Muslim
16.7
10.3
67.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
75.9
16.7 Tamil
5.6
22.4
77.8
Sinhala

x
as brought many benefits to ordinary citizens while others say benefits to them. In your opinion have Sri Lankans benefited
nic Breakdown
67.3
94.7
60 80 100
Don't know /Not sure
75.9
No, they have not benefited
Yes, they have
77.8
benefited
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If the answer is "Yes", please tell me three most important
Three most important benefits o
45
40
38.7
35
30
%
25
20.7 20
16.0 15
10
9.0
5
0
Ending of killing
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
Ending of
Freedom of
Development F destruction
movement

x
e three most important benefits of the CFA.
portant benefits of the CFA
9.0
10.5
2.2
2.8
of nt
Development Feeling of
security
Avoid division of the country
Benefit to minority communities
6
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25
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the Government's commitment
Ethnic Breakdown
6.5 Up-country Tamil
28.2
3.5
45.3
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
47.6
6.4
17.7
1.5 Muslim
12.2
19.8
11.3 Tamil
35.2
42.3 11.3
Sinhala
44.8

x
vernment's commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
thnic Breakdown
8.2
45.3
0 40 50 60 70
%
47.6
35.2
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied 66.4
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
42.3
44.8
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the LTTE commitment to the C
Ethnic Breakdown
1.6 Up-country Tamil
15.1
40.9
1.7
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
34.9
48.4
14.2 Muslim
19.8
12.3
5.3 Tamil
33.3
46.7 14.7
Sinhala
11.7
45.7

x
TE commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
nic Breakdown
34.9
48.4
46.7
45.7
Not satisfied at all
53.8
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
33.3
Very satisfied
40.9
30 40 50 60
%
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission What is your opinion on the need of a monitoring mission?
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamil
6.7 6.7
7.0 Muslim
18.6
8.5
69.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
74.4
5.9 Tamil
11.8
22.2
82
Sinhala

x
of a monitoring mission?
nic Breakdown
69.3
86.7
60 80 100 %
74.4
82.4
6
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential
Is essential
Page 27

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28
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Norway chairs the SLMM. Should Norway continue to chai country chair the SLMM?
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamil
2.7
24.9
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
43.2
37.1
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
5
27.7 Muslim
17.0
38.0
5
42.1 Tamil
5.3
52
Sinhala

x
Norway continue to chair the SLMM or should some other
Ethnic Breakdown
43.2
54.1
7.7
Don't know / Not sure
55.3
Some other country should chair the SLMM 42.1
Norw ay should continue to
52.6
chair the SLMM
37.1
38.0
40 50 60
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its m
Ethnic Breakdown
5.0 Up Country Tamils
5.0
27.3 Muslim
27.3
17.6
25.8
0 20 40 60 80
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
45.5
10.0 Tamil
0.0
Sinhala
56.7

x
ission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.
thnic Breakdown
90.0
90.0
56.7
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
45.5
Agree
6
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30
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its m
Ethnic Breakdown
Up Country Tamils
5.3 5.3
24.2 Muslim
27.3
19.4
34.9
0 20 40 60 80
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
48.5
10.0 Tamil
Sinhala
45.7

x
ission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement
nic Breakdown
89.5
90.0
45.7
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
48.5
Disagree
Agree
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Foreign Involvement What is your opinion on the need for an international third negotiations, to solve the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
35.8 Up-country
3.0
Tamils
1.5
3.0
4.3
52.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
56.
Muslim
3.0 3.0
4.5
9.0
16.4
4.3
17.4
Tamil
4.3
13.0
5.5 5.9
16.6
Sinhala
14.8

x
for an international third party as a facilitator to the onflict in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
35.8
56.7
Don't know /Not sure
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact 64.2
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a 60.9
positive impact
Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
52.8
40 50 60 70
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The Norwegian government has been officially facilitating p 2001. Please tell me your level of satisfaction with the Nor
Ethnic Breakdown
34.4 Up-country Tamil
4.7
21.2 Muslim
13.6
18.2 Tamil
13.6
20 Sinhala
32
44
0 20 40 60
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006

x
een officially facilitating peace negotiations since November atisfaction with the Norwegian role as facilitator.
Ethnic Breakdown
34.4
44
40 60 80
%
61
32
Don't know /not sure
Not satisfied
65.1
Satisfied
68.2
6
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33
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state if you approve or disapprove of Norway contin
Ethnic Breakdown
3.0 Up-country Tamil
24.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
47.8
41.5
49.3
13.1 Muslim
26.2
34.5
60.
4.3 Tamil
39.1
56.5
Sinhala

x
pprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace process.
nic Breakdown
47.8
56.5
41.5
40 50 60 70
%
49.3
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
34.5
60.7
39.1
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Are you aware that Erik Solheim has been involved in the S Norwegian Special Envoy since 2002?
National Breakdown
35.6
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006

x
as been involved in the Sri Lankan peace process as the 02?
nal Breakdown
64.4
Yes
No
6
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35
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If the answer is “Yes”, please tell me how satisfied are you Norway special envoy?
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamils
21.2 5.3
15.9
38
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
73.7
14.9 Muslim
21.3
45
63.8
0 Tamil
0
100
Sinhala

x
e how satisfied are you with the role of Erik Solheim as
nic Breakdown
100 73.7
Don't know /not sure
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
63.8
0 80 100 120
6
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36
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What is your opinion of the need for India's involvement in
Ethnic Breakdown
100%
18.5
8.7
13.4
3.0
1
80%
4.1 5.6
26.1
11.9
1.5
1 4.8
60%
4.3
25.3
17.4
1
40%
13.0
41.7
30.4
0%
Sinhala Tamil Muslim Up-c Ta
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
70.1
5 20%

x
for India's involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process?
Ethnic Breakdown
13.4
3.0
19.7
1.5
3.0
70.1
50.0
Muslim Up-country
Tamils
Don't know /Not sure 11.9
10.6
Not needed at all
6.1
Will have a negative impact 10.6
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Political Developments After the November 2005 presidential elections, violence h and East. Who do you think is responsible for the escalatio
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamils
0.0 0.0 0.0
1.6
4.9
8.2
13.1
18.0
Muslim
0.0
0.0
1.5
7.7 7.7
9.2
9.2
10.8
0.5 0.7
3.9
14.9
5.1 5.0
8.6
13.9
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
47.4
%
5
Tamil
0.0
5.9
11.8 11.8
0.0 0.0 0.0
17.6
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50

x
ntial elections, violence has escalated significantly in the North ponsible for the escalation of violence?
Ethnic Breakdown
47.4
54.1
40 50 60
Don't know /not sure
Karuna faction only
53.8
Security forces only
Paramilitary groups only
LTTE only 52.9
LTTE, security forces and the karuna faction
LTTE and the paramilitary groups
LTTE and the karuna faction
LTTE and the security forces
6
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38
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Are you aware that the United States has warned the LTTE very high cost and also were such an eventuality to arise, th assistance programs to Sri Lanka ?
National Breakdown
54.7
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006

x
tes has warned the LTTE that a return to war would be at a an eventuality to arise, the US would strengthen its military
nal Breakdown
45.3
Yes
No
6
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39
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What impact do such warnings and potential assistance fro Lankan peace process ?
Ethnic Breakdown
0.0 Up-country Tamils
14.3 0.0
14.8
Muslim
0.0
70.4
14.8
0.0 Tamil
14.3
71.4
14.3
10.0
Sinhala
8.4 7.3
74.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006

x
d potential assistance from the United states have on the Sri
ic Breakdown
74.3
85.7
60 80 100
%
70.4
Don't know / Not sure
A negative impact
No impact 71.4
A positive impact
6
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40
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
According to various news reports, are you aware that rep on the 19th January 2006 at the Presidential Secretariat for process ?
National Breakdown
59.3
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006

x
s, are you aware that representatives of 15 political parties met esidential Secretariat for an All Party Conference on the peace
nal Breakdown
40.7
Yes
No
6
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41
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What is the impact of All Party Conference on the peace p
Ethnic Breakdown
25 Up-country Tamils
12.5
62.5
0.2
0 20 40 60 80
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
62.5
3.3 Muslim
3.3
12.5 Tamil
25
Sinhala
8.4

x
nference on the peace process ?
thnic Breakdown
62.5
91.4
60 80 100
%
93.3
62.5
6
No impact
Negative impact
Positive impact
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42
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Various people express various opinions with regard to holding talks with the LTTE. Some say consensus betwe while others say a multi- party consensus that involves oth would you prefer?
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country
36.4
Tamils
7.7
0 20 40 60 80
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
51.5 12.1
16.7 Muslim
77.3 6.1
9.1 Tamil
68.2 22.7
21.5 Sinhala
70.8

x
opinions with regard to the southern political consensus on e say consensus between only the UNP and PA is sufficient sensus that involves other political parties is preferable. Which
Ethnic Breakdown
51.5
70.8
60 80 100
Don't know / Not sure 77.3
A multiparty consensus
68.2
Consensus betw een only the UNP and the PA
6
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43
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What, in your opinion, is the impact of the forthcoming Fe peace process ? Will it have a positive impact, a negative im
Ethnic Breakdown
24.1 Up-country
3.4 Tamils
10.3
62
23.0 0.8
0 20 40 60
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
62
3.0
21.7
Muslim
4.3
8.7
25.0
Tamil
0.0
12.5
Sinhala

x
ct of the forthcoming February 2006 talks in Geneva on the itive impact, a negative impact or will have no impact ?
Ethnic Breakdown
62.1
72.0
40 60 80
%
Don't know / Not sure
Will have a negative impact
65.2
Will have no impact
Will have a positive impact
62.5
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How important is the forthcoming February 2006 talks in G
Ethnic Breakdown
14.3 Up-country Tamils
0.0
17.9
3.2
7.6
60.8
0 20 40 60 80
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
67.9
4.3 Muslim
0.0
14.9
28.4
80.9
7.1 Tamil
0.0
21.4
71.4
Sinhala

x
February 2006 talks in Geneva to you at a personal level?
nic Breakdown
67.9
60.8
60 80 100
%
Don't know / Not sure
80.9
Unimportant
Somew hat important
Very important 71.4
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What do you think is the main reason, the Sri Lankan gove Geneva talks?
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country
10.3
Tamils
5.8
0 20 40 60
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
55.2
18.4
31.0 3.4
68.4 7.5
23.4 Muslim
19.1
53.2 4.3
13.3 Tamil
33.3
46.7 6.7
Sinhala

x
ason, the Sri Lankan government agreed to participate in the
Ethnic Breakdown
46.7
55.2
60 80
Don't know / Not sure
53.2
Commitment to the peace process
Because of the international pressure
Because the government w anted to buy more time
68.4
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What do you think is the main reason, the LTTE agreed to
Ethnic Breakdown
10.7 Up-country Tamils
13.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
64 21.4 3.6
31.9
Muslim
14.9
48.9 4.3
13.3
Tamil
33.3
46.7 6.7
37.4
Sinhala
5.6
43.4

x
son, the LTTE agreed to participate in the Geneva talks?
nic Breakdown
43.4
64.3
7.4
0 50 60 70
Don't know / Not sure
Commitment to the peace 48.9
process
Because of the international pressure
46.7
Because the LTTE w anted to buy more time
6
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
In your opinion how essential is the participation of a Musli Geneva talks?
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country
21.4
28.6
Tamils
17.9
32.1
2.1 Muslim
2.1
4.3
19.3 5.1
19.4
56.2
0 20 40 60 80 10
%
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
91.5
13.3 Tamil
20.0
40.0 26.7
Sinhala

x
e participation of a Muslim representative in the forthcoming
Ethnic Breakdown
56.2
Don't know / Not sure
91.5
Not needed at all
Is not essential - but 'a good thing'
Is essential
60 80 100
6
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Page 50
48
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
According to various news reports in the media, there ha search operations of civilians by police and armed forces in In your opinion, is it an anti terrorism measure or an anti c
Ethnic Breakdown
Up-country Tamils
14
26
20.1
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
60
37.3 Muslim
20.3
22.6
57.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
42.4
57.9 Tamil
10.5
31.6
Sinhala

x
ts in the media, there has been an increase in the cordon and olice and armed forces in the south during the last two months.
ism measure or an anti crime measure?
thnic Breakdown
1.6
60
40 50 60 70
Don't know / Not sure
37.3
An anti crime measure
42.4
An anti terrorism measure
57.9
57.4
6
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Page 51
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in February 200
DISTRICT TOT Colombo 18 Gampaha 17 Kalutara 90 Kandy 10 Matale 38 Nuwara Eliya 58 Galle 82 Matara 63 Hambantota 44 Kurunegala 12 Putalam 59 Anuradhapura 62 Polonnaruwa 30 Badulla 65 Monaragala 33 Ratnapura 84 Kegalle 65 NATIONAL 135
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in February 2006
ETHNICITY TOT Sinhala 120 Tamil 23 Muslim 67 Up-country Tamil 67 NATIONAL 135

ex
Annex
ribution in February 2006
TOTAL 188 172 90 106 38 58 82 63 44 121 59 62 30 65 33 84 65 1357
ibution in February 2006
Y TOTAL
1201 23 67 67 1357
2006
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) s in public confidence levels towards the peace process ove be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the February 2004, PCI was conducted bi-monthly, howeve decided to conduct the study quarterly to make the PCI mo
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1800 respondents during each phase of the capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of te undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace proc factors, the ethnic factor, which is the most important and i been accommodated in this model.
The total sample is distributed amongst 17 administrat excluding the North and East provinces due to the escala to the survey. The sample size assigned to each strat population proportions. However, some districts are o heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a distr of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Se primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sam Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected randoml using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 199 Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensure a m within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a max GND. Within a given GND, the enumerator is advised to s proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand the random selection of households.
In the case of urban areas, the interviewer is instructed t households, thus resulting in the interview-taking place at e final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the ho ensuring that each member of the household has an equ PCI sample.
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model do analysis at the same level of precision.

ex
nfidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations the peace process over time it is essential that the study al pauses during the study. Hence, from May 2001 to d bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI rly to make the PCI more efficient.
ctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of ring each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to ty within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is ion on the peace process is influenced by a number of e most important and influential, is the sole factor that has
ongst 17 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, ces due to the escalation of violence in the months prior ssigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.
r ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit ons of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of
frame.
work and ensure a maximum dispersion of the sample ed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a merator is advised to select a starting point randomly and ndom walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure .
rviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the erview-taking place at every alternative household. As the is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus household has an equal chance of being selected to the
subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. hat the PCI model does not support the regional level on.
2006
ii

Page 53
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