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An Opinio = حبالہ
Peace Confider
ALSO N THIS WAVE...
GENEVATALKS
ESCALATION OF WOLENCE
CANADIAN BAN OF LITTE
NORWAY & THE PEACE PROCESS
COST OF LIVING
CURRENTSECURITY CONDITION

in Poll On Peace
الكبير.
Ce lindex (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
MAY 2006
Social Indicator

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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
EVELO
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
(PCI)
T
OP
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX
-L
INE
R
ESULTS
I
MPORTANT
I
SSUES
SOLUTIONS
C
ONFIDENCE
CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT (CFA)
S
RI
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
(SLMM)
FOREIGN INVOLVEMENT
• POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
GENEVA TALKS
E
SCALATION OF
V
IOLENCE
LTTE BAN IN CANADA
JVP & PATRIOTIC NATIONAL MOVEMENT’S STR REMOVING
N
ORWAY FROM THE PEACE PROCE
RECENT BOMBING
K
ARUNA
G
ROUP
CURRENT SECURITY CONDITIONS
C
OST OF
L
IVING
• ANNEX

ex
01
ERNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
02
08
X
(PCI) 14
14
15
16
(CFA) 23
M
ISSION
(SLMM) 28
31
36
CE
40
41
NAL MOVEMENT’S STRONG CALLS FOR OM THE PEACE PROCESS
43
46
49
NDITIONS 50
51
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I
NTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop
public confidence in the peace process using a set of s
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set o
economic and political developments in order to gauge p
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will pro
useful barometer of Sri Lankan polity’s opinions, and ens
given due importance and incorporated into the policy deb
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The survey is carried out using a structured questionnai
interviews amongst a 1239 randomly selected sample.
administrative districts, excluding the North and East d
months prior. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnog
which the sample was surveyed.
This is the twenty second wave of the PCI study, which w
publication presents only the top-line results of the May 20
The results of these twenty two waves offer us data for a
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions o
developments. The results are subjected to a 3% margin of
** This particular wave of the PCI only covers the Sinhal
communities in the areas outside North and East.

Index
I
NTRODUCTION
-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
rocess using a set of standardized questions, which remain
other is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
ents in order to gauge public opinion on the peace process,
m one wave to another.
a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
olity’s opinions, and ensure that such collective opinions are
rated into the policy debate.
a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
domly selected sample. This survey was conducted in 17
the North and East due to the violence prevalent in the
reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in
f the PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This
line results of the May 2006 survey.
aves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public
ging from perceptions of war and peace to current political
jected to a 3% margin of error.
I only covers the Sinhala, Muslim and the Up-Country Tamil
North and East.
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F
• Despite the LTTE being one stake holder in the peace proce room for other movements and parties representing the as Mahinda Rajapakse said on February 17. (17 February 2006)- (D
• The Government will sit with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil E days in Geneva on February 22 and 23. Arrangements are no News on 20 February 2006)
• The LTTE peace delegation led by the political head S.P Tham on Saturday for peace talks with the Sri Lankan Government Tamil expatriates in the country. (Daily Mirror on 20 February
• The Sri Lankan government will inform the LTTE of the need insist on replacing the pact when they meet today for the fi country from slipping back to war, officials said. (Daily Mirror o
• UN organisations based in Geneva and International human cease-fire talks closely with hopes that both parties will not e that affect the daily lives of people in the country. (Daily Mirror
• Talks between Sri Lanka's warring parties entered a second an on both sides to show flexibility and save the country’s troub the Sri Lankan government and the rebel LTTE sat down at putting the entire ice-breaking initiative at risk, diplomats said.
• Truce talks between the Government and the LTTE ended with both sides agreeing to meet again in mid-April for anothe
• The Tamil and Muslim parties yesterday gave a mixed respons the government and the LTTE. (Daily Mirror on 25 February 2
• The JVP says it considers the outcome of the Geneva talks regaining Sri Lanka's sovereignty and re-establishing democrac
• The government on February 26 stressed that the Gene amendment to the existing Ceasefire Agreement by virtu between the two parties at the end of the talks last week. (Dai
• The LTTE is to lodge a strong protest with the Norwegian existing ceasefire agreement was amended by virtue of the jo conclusion of the two-day Geneva talks. (Daily Mirror on 28 Fe
• The Jathika Sevaka Sangamaya on February 27 charged that w Fernando and LTTE police chief Nadesan, seated opposite eac international accreditation to the LTTE police. (Daily Mirror on
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) on February 28 ur armed groups operating in the east with outgoing SLMM head that such groups do exist.” (Daily Mirror on 01 March 2006)
• Japan on March 1 urged the Sri Lankan government and the L peace process rather than tirelessly arguing on a formula o round of talks between the government and the LTTE in Gen chairs, the Tokyo government was looking forward to bo continuous meetings on the peace front. (Daily Mirror on 02 M
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission on March 3 said it had no LTTE cadres as alleged by the rebels or the so called eviden monitors to prove the allegations. (Daily Mirror on 04 March 2
• The LTTE has accused the government of failing to honour it and East as the Karuna faction continues to carry weapons i province. (Daily Mirror on 04 March 2006)
• President Mahinda Rajapakse on March 6 invited representati monitoring the Ceasefire Talks in Geneva for the speedy res talks. (Daily News on 07 March 2006)
• A day after the All Party Conference and having welcomed Government ally JVP, on March 7 insisted that Norway sho facilitator, because of its pro-terrorist stand. (Daily Mirror on 0
Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
K
EY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

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ONAL DEVELOPMENTS
F
EBRUARY
2006 – M
AY
2006*
lder in the peace process with the Government, there should also be rties representing the aspirations of Tamil speaking people, President
7. (17 February 2006)- (Daily News on 18 February 2006) eration Tigers of Tamil Eelam for the first time after three years and 14 23. Arrangements are now being finalized for the two-day talks. (Daily
political head S.P Thamilchelvam which arrived in Geneva, Switzerland Sri Lankan Government received a rousing welcome from Sri Lankan ily Mirror on 20 February 2006) rm the LTTE of the need for fresh clauses and safeguards but will not ey meet today for the first time in nearly three years to prevent the ficials said. (Daily Mirror on 22 February 2006)
nd International human rights groups will be following the Sri Lankan at both parties will not evade key human rights and humanitarian issues the country. (Daily Mirror on 23 February 2006) rties entered a second and final day today as foreign pressure mounted save the country’s troubled peace process. Although negotiators from rebel LTTE sat down at the table, their uncompromising stands were ve at risk, diplomats said. (Daily Mirror on 24 February 2006) nt and the LTTE ended successfully in Celigny, Switzerland yesterday, n in mid-April for another round. (Daily News on 24 February 2006) ay gave a mixed response to the outcome of the Geneva talks between y Mirror on 25 February 2006)
me of the Geneva talks as a positive one from the point of view of re-establishing democracy. (Daily News on 27 February 2006) stressed that the Geneva talks with the LTTE had resulted in an ire Agreement by virtue of the “Supplementary agreement” signed
f the talks last week. (Daily Mirror on 27 February 2006) est with the Norwegian facilitators over government claims that the nded by virtue of the joint statement signed by the two parties at the ks. (Daily Mirror on 28 February 2006) bruary 27 charged that with the participation of Police Chief Chandra san, seated opposite each other at the table, the government had given E police. (Daily Mirror on 28 February 2006) LMM) on February 28 urged the military to be truthful on the issue of ith outgoing SLMM head Hagrup Haukland insisting “there is no doubt rror on 01 March 2006)
n government and the LTTE, to take a more practical approach to the arguing on a formula or conditions. While welcoming the successful ent and the LTTE in Geneva recently, Japan also said as one of the co- looking forward to both parties making further progress through nt. (Daily Mirror on 02 March 2006)
March 3 said it had no knowledge of the alleged army arrest of five or the so called evidence the LTTE says it had given to the ceasefire aily Mirror on 04 March 2006) nt of failing to honour its pledge to disarm armed groups in the North nues to carry weapons in government-controlled areas in the eastern 2006) ch 6 invited representatives from all political parties to get involved in neva for the speedy resolution of problems that may arise during the )
e and having welcomed the Geneva peace talks in principle, the key sisted that Norway should be removed immediately from its role as t stand. (Daily Mirror on 08 March 2006)
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• Responding to the JVP’s call for the military to be strengthene any eventuality if the Sinhala extremists pushed the country b on 08 March 2006)
• Jaffna district TNA parliamentarian M.K. Eelaventhan on Marc the Tamils in the North and East would eventually lead to the March 2006)
• The Government on March 9 said there was no change in its Sri Lanka’s peace process. Responding to a question posed by conference Media Minister Anura Priyadharshana Yapa said “T (Daily Mirror on 10 March 2006)
• The LTTE is apparently continuing with more child recruitme March 10 while disclosing that more than 1300 fresh recruit (Daily Mirror on 11 March 2006)
• In an apparent shift from its hard-line stand, the Janatha Vimu might look into the possibility of applying a semi-federal mode while still holding that a full federal model will spell disaster fo
• Accusing the LTTE of committing most of the killings in th Mayor Alfred Duraiappa, IGP Chandra Fernando on Ma Balasingham had directly and categorically told him in Gene Mirror on 13 March 2006)
• The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam subject Sri Lankan Tam other Western countries to intimidation, extortion and even operations in Sri Lanka and to suppress criticism of human rig report released on March 14. (Daily News on 15 March 2006)
• Tension gripped Valaichchenai on March 15, when suspected while a demonstration by a large number of school children to colleagues by the LTTE two days ago was underway. (Daily Mir
• One of the key conditions of the LTTE – disarming armed pa peace talks is an enormously difficult task, the Sri Lanka Monit on 16 March 2006)
• Amidst repeated calls by the JVP, JHU and others for his rem March 16 announced he would soon give up the job as chief fa insisted the reason was a heavy workload and not anybody’s 2006)
• Norway appointed a new peace envoy today to help mediat Tiger rebels.Foreign ministry peace expert Jon Hanssen-Bauer became Norway's International Development Minister in Oct Lanka. “Hanssen-Bauer will be responsible for the day-to-day w in Sri Lanka,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. (Daily M
• The country’s biggest bilateral donor, Japan on March 20 sai the North East should continue irrespective of whether the p 20 March 2006)
• The LTTE on March 20 accused the Navy of firing towards Koonitivu and Kadatkaraichchenai in the LTTE- held Muttur e 21 March 2006)
• The JVP on March 21 accused the government of holding Sam buy spoilt rice from cooperative stores.JVP parliamentarian attack during on March 21 debate in parliament on the exte March 2006)
• The Army, the LTTE and the SLMM were continuing talks ove in government-controlled areas after the LTTE on March 22 r for reopening political offices in state-controlled areas. (Daily M
• THE electoral system will definitely be changed with the con Local Polls under a new electoral system sans preferential March 22. (Daily News on 23 March 2006)
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ilitary to be strengthened, the LTTE said on March 7 it was ready for sts pushed the country back to war, TamilNet reported. (Daily Mirror
.K. Eelaventhan on March 8 warned that the continued harassment of uld eventually lead to the creation of Tamil Eelam. (Daily Mirror on 09
ere was no change in its stand on Norway functioning as facilitator in g to a question posed by a journalist on March 9 weekly Cabinet news yadharshana Yapa said “There is no change in our stand over Norway”.
ith more child recruitment the United Nations Children’s Fund said on than 1300 fresh recruits have been drafted since the end of January.
e stand, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) on March 12 said that it lying a semi-federal model like that of India as a way out of the conflict odel will spell disaster for Sri Lanka. (Daily Mirror on 13 March 2006)
ost of the killings in the country starting with that of former Jaffna ndra Fernando on March 12 said LTTE Chief negotiator Anton rically told him in Geneva that they were a terrorist out-fit. (Daily
subject Sri Lankan Tamils living in Canada, the United Kingdom and tion, extortion and even violence to ensure a steady flow of funds for ss criticism of human rights abuses, said Human Rights Watch in a new News on 15 March 2006)
rch 15, when suspected LTTE cadres torched two state-owned buses, ber of school children to protest the alleged abduction of two of their was underway. (Daily Mirror on 16 March 2006) TE – disarming armed para-military groups prior to the next round of task, the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission said on March 15. (Daily Mirror
U and others for his removal, Norway's peace envoy Erik Solheim on give up the job as chief facilitator in the Sri Lankan peace process – but kload and not anybody’s political pressure. (Daily Mirror on 17 March
oy today to help mediate between Sri Lanka's government and Tamil xpert Jon Hanssen-Bauer, 53, would take over from Erik Solheim, who lopment Minister in October 2005 after six years focused only on Sri sible for the day-to-day work as peace facilitator for the peace process d in a statement. (Daily Mirror on 18 March 2006)
, Japan on March 20 said that urgent socio-economic development in pective of whether the peace bid is moving or stalled. (Daily Mirror on
Navy of firing towards the coastal villages of Sampoor, Soodaikuda, the LTTE- held Muttur east, the Tamil Net reported. (Daily Mirror on
vernment of holding Samurdhi recipients to ransom by forcing them to res.JVP parliamentarian and former minister Vijitha Herath made the parliament on the extension of the emergency. (Daily Mirror on 22
were continuing talks over an LTTE request to resume political activity the LTTE on March 22 rejected the pre-conditions of the government -controlled areas. (Daily Mirror on 23 March 2006) be changed with the consensus of all political parties to hold the next ystem sans preferential voting, President Mahinda Rajapakse said on 2006)
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• Tamil National Alliance Parliamentarian Gajendran Ponnamba preparing for another war since there was little or no progre March 2006)
• The LTTE has violated the Ceasefire Agreement on 31 occ Cabinet Spokesman Minister Anura Priyadarshana Yapa said on
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa has decided to take up March 25 international level, while intelligence reports claimed there w board the blown up LTTE trawler. (Daily Mirror on 27 March 2
• The Army on March 28 launched a drive to recruit Muslims m spokesman Prasad Samarasinghe said the interviews for this ne 5. (05 April 2006)-(Daily Mirror 29 March 2006)
• Sri Lanka's independent human rights watchdog may collapse outgoing panel of commissioners, AHRC executive director Kong-based Asian Human Rights Commission said Sri Lan without commissioners from next Monday because the Con make appointments, is defunct. (Daily Mirror on 31 March 200
• Crucial local council polls – widely seen as a key test for Pre parties – concluded on March 31 largely on a peaceful note mixed overall turnout with a national average of 60 percent. (D
• The UPFA recorded a landslide victory at March 30 Local G local bodies that went to the polls. (Daily News on 01 April 20
• A breakaway faction of the LTTE – the group led by breaka April 5 vowed to shoot dead supporters of the mainstream homes and businesses appropriated from Muslims in the 1990s
• There is a marked increase in the recruitment of children in (Daily News on 06 April 2006)
• The LTTE on April 5 said the outcome of the March 30 loc people had rejected the extremist policies of the JVP and t progress on the peace front. (Daily Mirror on 06 April 2006)
• Less than two weeks before the second round of talks in G morning shot dead two Muslim home guards at Katuwanvila home, Military sources said. (Daily Mirror on 08 April 2006)
• At least eight Wanni cadres were reportedly killed and m believed to be Karuna men launched an attack on an LTTE sen held Sampoor area. Sources said three of the attackers we Wanni cadres. The fighting had lasted for a few hours. (Daily M
• In a blatant repudiation of its commitments made in Geneva t five security forces personnel and two civilians by activating a at Mirusavil. (Daily News on 11 April 2006)
• Ten sailors and a civilian driver were killed and nine others in yet another LTTE claymore mine, in Thampalagamuwa on th (Daily News on 12 April 2006)
• Norway has urged both the Government and the LTTE to Geneva despite the wave of violent incidents in the North an on 13 April 2006)
• THE United States has condemned the LTTE in the stronge attacks carried out by the outfit, killing several Armed Forces 12, the US Government extending its sympathies to the famili return to the talks on the implementation of Ceasefire Agreem
• The co-chairs of Sri Lanka’s donor conference, the US, government and the LTTE to stop the spate of violence commitment made in Geneva. (Daily Mirror on 13 April 2006)
• UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan expressed serious concern Lanka and appealed to the Government and the Liberation T Geneva next week to implement the current ceasefire agreem
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ian Gajendran Ponnambalam on March 23 claimed that the LTTE was e was little or no progress in the peace process. (Daily Mirror on 24
e Agreement on 31 occasions following the February Geneva talks, riyadarshana Yapa said on March 23. (Daily News on 24 March 2006) ided to take up March 25 LTTE suicide attack on the Navy’s Dvora at reports claimed there were aircraft parts, missiles and explosives on aily Mirror on 27 March 2006) rive to recruit Muslims mainly to protect Muslims in the east.Military the interviews for this new infantry battalion would continue till April arch 2006) s watchdog may collapse as the government has failed to replace the RC executive director Basil Fernando said on March 30. The Hong ommission said Sri Lanka's Human Rights Commission would be onday because the Constitutional Council, which is empowered to y Mirror on 31 March 2006)
en as a key test for President Mahinda Rajapaksa and the two major gely on a peaceful note despite over 200 incidents of violence and a average of 60 percent. (Daily Mirror on 31 March 2006) ry at March 30 Local Government elections bagging 222 of the 266 aily News on 01 April 2006) the group led by breakaway former commander Colonel Karuna-on ters of the mainstream rebel group unless they return thousands of om Muslims in the 1990s. (Daily Mirror on 04 April 2006) ecruitment of children in the East for combat training by the LTTE.
me of the March 30 local council elections clearly showed that the olicies of the JVP and the JHU and the people had supported the irror on 06 April 2006) cond round of talks in Geneva, suspected LTTE gunmen on April 7 e guards at Katuwanvila in Welikanda while they were on their way irror on 08 April 2006) reportedly killed and more than five others injured when a group an attack on an LTTE sentry point on the morning of April 8 in Tiger- ree of the attackers were also injured due to resistance from the
for a few hours. (Daily Mirror on 10 April 2006) tments made in Geneva two months ago, the LTTE on April 10 killed o civilians by activating a claymore mine targeting an Army double cab l 2006)
killed and nine others injured when a Navy convoy was caught up in Thampalagamuwa on the Trincomalee- Habarana road on April 11.
ment and the LTTE to attend the forthcoming April peace talks in ncidents in the North and East over the past few days. (Daily Mirror
the LTTE in the strongest possible terms over the recent terrorist ng several Armed Forces personnel. In a statement released on April sympathies to the families of the victims has called upon the LTTE to tion of Ceasefire Agreement. (Daily News on 13 April 2006) r conference, the US, the EU and Japan on April 12 urged the the spate of violence in the North East and to live up to the Mirror on 13 April 2006)
pressed serious concern on April 12 at the upsurge of violence in Sri ent and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam to attend peace talks in current ceasefire agreement. (Daily News on 14 April 2006)
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• With the spree of violence in the North and East hitting unp the balance, the Peace Secretariat and the Sri Lanka Monitor another round of frantic talks for a breakthrough. (Daily Mirro
• The Government had displayed extreme flexibility to facilitate face of provocations by the LTTE, in order to encourage the L Government Peace Secretariat (SCOPP) stated on April 16. (D
• The TNA on April 17 urged the government to take immedia in the East. Referring to the recent incidents in Trincomalee violence allegedly unleashed by the government would have se talks. (Daily Mirror on 18 April 2006)
• With the LTTE yet to make its official position known on att April 18 went ahead with finalizing logistics on hiring a pr leaders for a meeting with the Wanni leadership. (Daily Mirror
• The chief Swedish cease-fire monitor blamed the LTTE on Ap that have killed dozens in Sri Lanka and imperiled a four-year- on 19 April 2006)
• The Norwegian special peace envoy Jon Hanssen-Bauer held e 19 with the next round of peace talks still hanging in the balan
• The UNP on April 20 said the lack of consistency among t triggered the LTTE’s decision to pull out from next week’s 2006)
• Colombo: It is reliably learnt that the LTTE, despite the Gov transport for their Eastern leaders to meet with the Wanni le peace talks scheduled for next week. This is despite the fact schedule the original dates set for the second round of peac Envoy Hanssen Bauer who visited Kilinochchi in an Air Forc S.P. Thamilselvan on April 20 to urge the LTTE to participat Colombo met Government Peace Secretariat Chief Dr. Palitha
• After Norwegian special peace envoy Jon Hannsen-Bauer faile the peace talks, the government on April 21 sent a Norwe meet the LTTE for further discussions on the transport issue the talks back on track. (Daily Mirror on 22 April 2006)
• With the LTTE continuously putting forward fresh conditions to the north to take part in the second round of talks in Gene the Norwegian peace facilitators to stop shuttling back and f instead, put pressure on the rebels to accept the current tra 2006)
• A LTTE suicide cadre allegedly come to assassinate Ministe Polonnaruwa hospital in a critical condition, after swallowin police at Kaduruwela in Polonnaruwa on April 23 evening. (Dai
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa on April 24 said no other leade displayed the degree of patience that he was exercising in t (Daily Mirror on 25 April 2006)
• Army Commander Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka was critically injur female Black Tiger suicide cadre disguised as a pregnant wom Military Hospital inside the Colombo Army headquarters. (Dail
• The military launched air and artillery strikes on Tamil Tiger sending thousands fleeing their homes a day after a suicide Reuters news agency reported. (Daily Mirror on 27 April 2006
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission on April 28 rejected Gov Muslim dominated government controlled area in Mutur on A others was caused by LTTE firing directed at the Navy. (Daily M
• With relative calm in the North East on April 28, the Co-c agreed to regroup again in Japan renewing hopes that the go sooner than later. (Daily Mirror on 29 April 2006)
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orth and East hitting unprecedented heights and Geneva talks still in d the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) on April 16 met for yet eakthrough. (Daily Mirror on 17 April 2006) me flexibility to facilitate the sea movement of 32 LTTE leaders in the order to encourage the LTTE to attend the peace talks in Geneva, the PP) stated on April 16. (Daily News on 17 April 2006)
rnment to take immediate steps to stop terrorizing the Tamil people incidents in Trincomalee, the TNA in a statement warned that the vernment would have serious repercussions at the upcoming Geneva )
al position known on attending the Geneva talks, the government on logistics on hiring a private helicopter to transport Eastern LTTE leadership. (Daily Mirror on 19 April 2006) blamed the LTTE on April 18 for the recent spate of land mine blasts nd imperiled a four-year-old, Norwegian-brokered truce. (Daily News
Jon Hanssen-Bauer held extensive talks with the government on April
still hanging in the balance. (Daily Mirror on 20 April 2006) of consistency among the government allies on the peace process ll out from next week’s talks in Geneva. (Daily Mirror on 21 April
e LTTE, despite the Government's offer to provide both sea and air meet with the Wanni leadership has decided not to participate in the . This is despite the fact that the Government had consented to re- e second round of peace talks in Geneva. Norwegian Special Peace ilinochchi in an Air Force helicopter met LTTE Political Wing leader e the LTTE to participate in the peace talks. Bauer on his arrival in cretariat Chief Dr. Palitha Kohona. (Daily News on 21 April 2006)
Jon Hannsen-Bauer failed on April 20 to facilitate a breakthrough in April 21 sent a Norwegian embassy official and the SLMM head to ns on the transport issue of its eastern cadres with hopes of getting r on 22 April 2006)
forward fresh conditions for the transport of its cadres from the east nd round of talks in Geneva, the Government on April 23 called upon stop shuttling back and forth between Colombo and Kilinochchi and o accept the current transport proposals. (Daily Mirror on 24 April
e to assassinate Minister Maithripala Sirisena was admitted to the ondition, after swallowing a cyanide capsule following his arrest by
on April 23 evening. (Daily Mirror on 24 April 2006) il 24 said no other leader in the world in the recent past would have t he was exercising in the face of the highest level of provocations.
nseka was critically injured and eight others killed on April 25 when a uised as a pregnant woman, blew herself up in front of the exit of the
Army headquarters. (Daily News on 26 April 2006) y strikes on Tamil Tiger targets in the island's northeast on April 26, es a day after a suicide attack shattered an already fragile ceasefire, y Mirror on 27 April 2006) n April 28 rejected Government claims that the shell which fell in a olled area in Mutur on April 28 killing 4 Muslim civilians and injuring 9 cted at the Navy. (Daily Mirror on 28 April 2006) t on April 28, the Co-chairs of the peace process met in Oslo and ewing hopes that the government and the LTTE will meet for talks 9 April 2006)
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• The Head of Mission of the SLMM Major General Ulf Henrics Navy had definitely targeted military positions and offices of Secretary General of the Secretarial for Coordinating the P News on 29 April 2006)
• Norway's senior peace mediator will fly to Nepal next w government and Maoist rebels and to help re-establish democ 28. (Daily Mirror on 29 April 2006)
• UPF leader P. Chandrasekaran said on April 28 he feared the on April 27 were those of Tamil civilians who had been ar Colombo, TamilNet reported. (Daily Mirror on 29 April 2006)
• Despite the government criticizing the truce monitors’ stat military” the monitors stuck to their position while a meetin SLMM chief is scheduled for today. When contacted, Peace S Mirror on April 30: “I can tell you very briefly that a meeting w to comment on the subject matter of the meeting. But the D will come up for discussion. (Daily Mirror on 01 May 2006)
• The LTTE launched a major assault on the ‘Karuna’ faction in resulting in severe casualties on both sides, while in ‘no-ma army and the LTTE were at a high on April 30, just hours afte 01 May 2006)
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is likely to rule the sea m night as a ceasefire violation as the Tigers do not have a right high drama in the Trincomalee seas early last morning hours a its cadres by sea from the east to the Wanni aboard sea tiger in the Navy opening fire on the Tiger vessels. (Daily Mirror on
• The LTTE on May 02 warned it would be forced to wipe ou government failed to live up to its pledge to disarm the group.
• The LTTE which promised to refrain from all forms of viol violent campaign not only against the Security Forces but also and injuring 96, Military and Police sources said. (Daily Mirror o
• Japanese special peace envoy Yasushi Akashi on May 02 stres to be called in unless war broke out between the government 2006)
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission which came under fire from it issued against the military on April 29, yesterday came up not intend passing judgment on the security forces. (Daily Mirr
• The LTTE has called on the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission to b refrain from allowing room for different interpretations” aft earlier statement which condemned Government air strikes o on 04 May 2006)
• The Jatika Hela Urumaya on May 03 suggested the inclusion o ceasefire agreement as a means of neutralising LTTE accusatio 04 May 2006)
• At least seven suspected LTTE cadres were killed and two sol military checkpoint near the Nelliady filling station in Jaffna o Samarasinghe said that around 2.15 p.m. seven LTTE cadres a wheelers and launched an attack on the two soldiers at the Nelliyadi and fled the scene. (Daily Mirror on 05 May 2006)
• The breakaway LTTE faction led by Vinayagamurthi Muralith disarm them, be it the Government, the Norwegian facilitator Sri Lankan Government. (Daily Mirror on 08 May 2006)
• The LTTE which came under attack from the Karuna faction May 08 it would be forced to launch attacks against army c Trincomalee if armed groups continued to use them as hide Mirror on 09 May 2006)
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ajor General Ulf Henricsson confirmed that the Sri Lanka Air Force and positions and offices of the LTTE, when he met Dr. Palitha Kohona, l for Coordinating the Peace Process at his office on April 28. (Daily
ill fly to Nepal next week to try to push along talks between the help re-establish democracy, the Norwegian government said on April
n April 28 he feared the five headless bodies discovered in Avissawella ivilians who had been arrested during searches and disappeared from
Mirror on 29 April 2006) he truce monitors’ statement on alleged “extrajudicial killings by the position while a meeting between the Peace Secretariat head and the hen contacted, Peace Secretariat Head Palitha Kohona told the Daily y briefly that a meeting with the SLMM is taking place today. He refused f the meeting. But the Daily Mirror learns the controversial statement irror on 01 May 2006)
n the ‘Karuna’ faction in the Welikanda area, early morning of April 30, h sides, while in ‘no-mans land’ in Vavunaithivu tensions between the April 30, just hours after a shell attack on the rebels. (Daily Mirror on
likely to rule the sea movement conducted by the LTTE on April 30 gers do not have a right to the sea, the SLMM said on May 1. There was arly last morning hours after the LTTE attempted to transport some of Wanni aboard sea tiger vessels defying government objections resulting vessels. (Daily Mirror on 02 May 2006) ld be forced to wipe out the Karuna faction militarily in the east if the dge to disarm the group. (Daily Mirror on 03 May 2006) n from all forms of violence during Geneva I, had directed its vicious Security Forces but also on civilians in the North-East killing 48 of them urces said. (Daily Mirror on 03 May 2006) i Akashi on May 02 stressed there was no need for the United Nations between the government forces and the LTTE. (Daily Mirror on 03 May
ich came under fire from the government over a hard-hitting statement l 29, yesterday came up with a fresh statement on May 02 saying it did
curity forces. (Daily Mirror on 03 May 2006) Monitoring Mission to be “truthful in its judgments and statements, and rent interpretations” after the monitors released a clarification of an overnment air strikes over LTTE targets in Trincomalee. (Daily Mirror
suggested the inclusion of Karuna Amman in the peace process and the utralising LTTE accusations against paramilitary groups. (Daily Mirror on
s were killed and two soldiers injured when an attack was launched on a y filling station in Jaffna on May 04 evening. Military spokesman Prasad .m. seven LTTE cadres armed with hand grenades arrived in two three- the two soldiers at the military checkpoint near the filling station at irror on 05 May 2006)
Vinayagamurthi Muralitheran, alias ‘Karuna Amman’, says no one can he Norwegian facilitators or, the SLMM, as they were not armed by the r on 08 May 2006) from the Karuna faction killing more than 30 Wanni cadres, warned on h attacks against army camps dividing LTTE and government areas in ed to use them as hideouts to infiltrate LTTE-controlled areas. (Daily
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The TNA on May 10 claimed the killing of Tamil People’s F Trincomalee recently had triggered the present escalation of May 2006)
• The JVP reiterated on May 09 that the LTTE had started Eela must be mobilized to face this situation, as there was little or with the Tigers. (Daily Mirror on 10 May 2006)
• Following the sea battle off the Mutur coast on May 11 aftern Lanka is a Government controlled area and non-state actors therefore the LTTE has no rights at sea’. (Daily Mirror on 12 M
• Hitting back at the SLMM statement issued after May 11 sea had no right to classify the two parties as state and non stat Mirror on 13 May 2006)
• The Government in a statement on May 12 confirmed that as force launched limited aerial strikes on the identified LT Iranamadu. (Daily Mirror on 13 May 2006)
• The troop carrier MV Pearl Cruise II, which came under Sea reached its destination in the early hours of May 12, Milit Mirror on 13 May 2006)
• Fresh violence hit the north and east with at latest 17 being night, police said yesterday. (Daily Mirror on 15 May 2006)
• The Cease-fire Monitors, who temporarily suspended their s sea battle in the Vettalaikerni Sea, claimed on May 14 that the few days’. (Daily Mirror on 15 May 2006)
• A suspected member of the LTTE pistol gang on May 15 st killed a Karuna cadre while critically injuring another. Both w police protection, amidst an escalation of violence in other are May 2006)
• The LTTE’s peace secretariat chief, S. Pulidevan, said on May was worrying and that they were prepared for a resumptio 2006)
• The technical committee of the European Union on May 17 LTTE as a banned organization in the European Union, highly this edition went to press, the ‘clearing house’ of the EU yesterday, and it was expected that it would make the anno Mirror on 17 May 2006)
* For the purpose of accuracy, un-dated indicators (in the r "yesterday/today/tomorrow" are edited to indicate their ex
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7
illing of Tamil People’s Forum leader Vanniasingham Vigneswaran in he present escalation of violence in the country. (Daily Mirror on 10
e LTTE had started Eelam War 4, and hence insisted that all citizens on, as there was little or no hope of reaching a negotiated settlement May 2006)
r coast on May 11 afternoon, the SLMM said the ‘sea surrounding Sri ea and non-state actors cannot rule open sea waters or airspace and ea’. (Daily Mirror on 12 May 2006)
issued after May 11 sea battle, the LTTE insisted that the monitors ies as state and non state actors in the country’s peace effort. (Daily
ay 12 confirmed that as a deterrent to further LTTE attacks, the air s on the identified LTTE aviation facility under construction at 2006) I, which came under Sea Tiger attack off Vettilaikerni, on May 11 had hours of May 12, Military spokesman Prasad Samarasinghe. (Daily
t with at latest 17 being killed and two others injured since May 13 irror on 15 May 2006)
rarily suspended their sea monitoring in the aftermath of the major imed on May 14 that they hoped to resume their sea monitoring ‘in a 006)
istol gang on May 15 stormed the Batticaloa Hospital and shot and injuring another. Both were receiving treatment at the hospital under n of violence in other areas of the north and east. (Daily Mirror on 16
. Pulidevan, said on May 16 that the spiraling violence in the country repared for a resumption of the civil war. (Daily Mirror on 17 May
opean Union on May 17, 2006 made a recommendation to list the e European Union, highly placed diplomatic sources said. By the time earing house’ of the EU was going through the recommendation it would make the announcement on the LTTE ban shortly. (Daily
dated indicators (in the reproduced news items) such as dited to indicate their exact date.
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F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTE
29TH M
AY
2006
The following are the significant trends observed in the PC to note that this particular wave of the PCI only covers the Tamil communities in the areas outside North and representation of the sample, this report does not intend to
♦ When asked to rate five national issues according to
economy (27.9%) and the peace process (27.1%) was community. The Up-Country Tamil community gives h (29.3%) followed by the economy (24.6%). The Muslim the economy (28.1%) followed by the peace process (24
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (75%), Up-Country Tam
communities support the idea of a permanent peace When compared to the February ‘06 PCI findings, this i amongst the Sinhala (February- 95%) and Up-Country T communities. On the contrary, the Muslim (February- significant increase. Interestingly, the support for a perm war has increased amongst the Sinhala (February- 3.7 Tamil (February- 0.4%, May- 3.1%) communities when c findings. Nevertheless, the Muslim (February- 6%, M settlement through war has decreased. (Ref. Page 15)
♦ When asked about the Government’s commitment to
Sinhala (73.2%) and Muslim (58.6%) communities committed to find peace through talks. This is a decrea the February ‘06 PCI findings (February: Sinhala- 80%, M who disagree amongst the Sinhala (Disagree: February (Disagree: February- 18.2%, May- 24.1%) communities h Up-Country Tamil community seems to have a mixe 39.7%, Disagree-38.1%, Don’t Know/ Not sure- 22.2%). the February ‘06 PCI findings those who agree (Feb Country Tamil community has decreased while those w increased. (Ref. Page 16)
♦ A majority of Sinhala (55.7%) and Muslim (72.4%
Government is capable in finding peace through talks. W ‘06 PCI findings, those who agree (February- 65%, M community have decreased while those who disagree (F increased. On the contrary, amongst the Muslim commu 64.2%, May- 72.4%) have increased while those who 13.8%) have decreased. A majority of Up-Country Tam that the Government is capable in finding peace through to the February ‘06 PCI findings, those who agree (Febru the Up-Country Tamil community have decreased whi 16.1%, May- 43.5%) have increased. (Ref. Page 17)
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HE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
2006
TO 29TH M
AY
2006
ends observed in the PCI May 2006 survey. It is important f the PCI only covers the Sinhala, Muslim and Up-Country s outside North and East. Further, due to the low report does not intend to present national estimations.
onal issues according to their order of importance, the ce process (27.1%) was rated the highest by the Sinhala amil community gives high priority to the peace process my (24.6%). The Muslim community gives high priority to by the peace process (24.8%). (Ref. Page 14)
75%), Up-Country Tamil (78.1%) and Muslim (96.6%) of a permanent peace settlement through negotiations. ry ‘06 PCI findings, this is a significant decrease of opinion 95%) and Up-Country Tamil (Up-Country Tamil- 90.6%) , the Muslim (February- 84.7%) opinion has witnessed a y, the support for a permanent peace settlement through e Sinhala (February- 3.7%, May- 13.5%) and Up-Country %) communities when compared to the February ‘06 PCI uslim (February- 6%, May- 3.4%) support for a peace reased. (Ref. Page 15)
ment’s commitment to the peace process, a majority of (58.6%) communities agree that the Government is gh talks. This is a decrease of opinion when compared to ebruary: Sinhala- 80%, Muslim- 62.1%). Interestingly, those hala (Disagree: February- 5.9%, May- 10.9%) and Muslim y- 24.1%) communities has also witnessed an increase. The seems to have a mixed opinion in this regard (Agree- now/ Not sure- 22.2%). Nevertheless, when compared to those who agree (February- 49.2%) amongst the Up- decreased while those who disagree (February- 18.5%) has
%) and Muslim (72.4%) communities agree that the ng peace through talks. When compared to the February gree (February- 65%, May- 55.7%) amongst the Sinhala le those who disagree (February- 10.6%, May- 17.1%) have ongst the Muslim community, those who agree (February- ased while those who disagree (February- 16.4%, May- ority of Up-Country Tamil (43.5%) communities disagree in finding peace through talks. However, when compared , those who agree (February- 46.8%, May- 30.6%) amongst nity have decreased while those who disagree (February- sed. (Ref. Page 17)
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♦ When asked about the LTTE’s commitment to the p
Sinhala (75%) and Muslim (45.6%) communities disagre find peace through talks. A majority of Up-Country Tam the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks. Wh PCI findings, those who disagree (February- 56.1%, community have increased while those who agree (F witnessed a downfall. With regard to the Muslim and those who agree (Muslim: February- 40.9%, May- 15.8% 63.5%, May- 50%) have decreased while those who di May- 45.6% / Up-Country Tamil: February- 7.9%, May- 3 increase. (Ref. Page 18)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (49%) community disagree th peace through talks. A majority of the Up-Country Tam communities agree that the LTTE is capable of find compared to the February ‘06 PCI findings, those who 49%) amongst the Sinhala community have increased w 25.2%, May- 17.6%) have witnessed a downfall. With r those who agree (February- 41.8%, May- 53.6%) have in (February- 25.4%, May- 25%) have decreased. Am community, those who agree (February- 59.3%, May- 42 who disagree (February- 8.5%, May- 34.4%) have increas
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (43.4%), Up-Country Tam communities state, that when compared to the situation the country at present is not close at all in approachin ethnic conflict. However, according to the September ‘ Sinhala (39.8%) community think that it is ‘not close at (40.8%) community thinks it is ‘very close’. The Muslim (Very close- 35%, Not close at all- 35%). (Ref. Page 20)
♦ When asked who should be involved in negotiations, a m
the Up-Country Tamil (31.3%) communities state tha LTTE should be involved in negotiations. However, a community states that the Government, opposition, LT an international third party should be involved in negotia
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (45.6%) community believes th resume. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (39.1%) an it is very likely a war will resume. According to the Feb of the Muslim (38.8%) community think that it is some majority of the Up-country Tamil (30.8%) community do Page 22)
♦ Of those who are aware of the CFA, a majority of Si (65.4%) and Muslim (88.1%) communities believe that th citizen. This is a decrease of opinion when compare (February: Sinhala-67.3%, Up-Country Tamil- 94.7%, Mus

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s commitment to the peace process, a majority of the %) communities disagree that the LTTE is committed to jority of Up-Country Tamil (50%) communities agree that peace through talks. When compared to the February ‘06 ree (February- 56.1%, May- 75%) amongst the Sinhala ile those who agree (February- 7.3%, May- 1.3%) have gard to the Muslim and Up-Country Tamil communities, ruary- 40.9%, May- 15.8% / Up-Country Tamil: February- sed while those who disagree (Muslim: February- 24.2%, l: February- 7.9%, May- 30.6%) have witnessed a significant
) community disagree that the LTTE is capable of finding of the Up-Country Tamil (42.6%) and the Muslim (53.6%) TTE is capable of finding peace through talks. When PCI findings, those who disagree (February- 34.8%, May- munity have increased while those who agree (February- ssed a downfall. With regard to the Muslim community, .8%, May- 53.6%) have increased while those who disagree ) have decreased. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil February- 59.3%, May- 42.6%) have decreased while those
ay- 34.4%) have increased. (Ref. Page 19)
3.4%), Up-Country Tamil (51.7%) and Muslim (40.7%) ompared to the situation of the peace process a year ago, lose at all in approaching a permanent settlement to the ding to the September ‘05 PCI findings, a majority of the k that it is ‘not close at all’ while the Up-Country Tamil ‘very close’. The Muslim community has a divided opinion all- 35%). (Ref. Page 20)
olved in negotiations, a majority of the Sinhala (33.6%) and ) communities state that only the Government and the egotiations. However, a majority of the Muslim (79.7%) ernment, opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Muslim parties and uld be involved in negotiations. (Ref. Page 21)
) community believes that it is somewhat likely a war will ountry Tamil (39.1%) and the Muslim (44.1%) believe that e. According to the February ‘06 PCI findings, a majority ity think that it is somewhat likely a war will resume. A il (30.8%) community doesn’t know or are not sure. (Ref.
e CFA, a majority of Sinhala (45.8%), Up-Country Tamil munities believe that the CFA has benefited the ordinary opinion when compared to February ’06 PCI findings ountry Tamil- 94.7%, Muslim- 75.9%). (Ref. Page 23)
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♦ Of those who think that the CFA has benefited t community believes ‘peaceful environment in the cou (59.2%)’ and the ‘freedom of movement- (46%)’ are the the CFA. The Up-Country Tamil community believe country- (74.9%)’, ‘freedom of movement- (57.7%)’ and the three most important benefits of the CFA. The ‘freedom of movement- (71.2%)’, ‘ending of destructio (51.6%)’ are the most important benefits of the CFA. (Re
♦ Of those who think that the CFA has not benefited the
Sinhala (57.6%) community believes that the LTTE str controlled areas is the main reason. (Ref. Page 25)
♦ When asked about their satisfaction in Governmen
majority of Sinhala (51.7%) and Muslim (66.7%) commun Up-Country Tamil community has a divided opinion satisfied- 37%). When compared to the February ‘0 somewhat satisfied (February- 44.8%) amongst the Sin (Ref. Page 26)
♦ When asked about their satisfaction in LTTE’s commi Sinhala (59.9%) community is not satisfied at all. Whi Tamil (42.3%) community is somewhat satisfied, a community is not satisfied. (Ref. Page 27)
♦ Of those who are aware of the involvement of foreig
(53.3%), Up-Country Tamil (90.5%) and Muslim (97.4 essential to have a monitoring mission for the CFA t percentage of the Sinhala community who believe tha essential is lower compared to the Up-Country Tamil compared to the February ‘06 PCI findings, those who t amongst the Sinhala (February- 69.3%, May- 53.3%) c think that it is essential to have a monitoring mission Country Tamil (February- 86.7%, May- 97.4%) and Musl communities. (Ref. Page 28)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (58.1%) community disagree w
is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement (72.2%) and Muslim (50%) communities agree with t impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement. ‘06 PCI findings, the percentage of Muslim (February- 4 agree have increased while the percentage of Up-Cou 72.2%) community who agree has decreased. (Ref. Page 2
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (56.1%) community disagree w
is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement. (50%) and Muslim (45.9%) communities agree with t effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement. W ‘06 PCI findings, the percentage of Muslim (February- Country Tamil (February- 89.5%, May- 50%) communitie Page 30)

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e CFA has benefited the ordinary citizen, the Sinhala environment in the country- (61.6%)’, ‘ending of killing- ovement- (46%)’ are the three most important benefits of amil community believes ‘peaceful environment in the movement- (57.7%)’ and the ‘ending of killing- (42.8%)’ are efits of the CFA. The Muslim community believes that )’, ‘ending of destruction- (57.2%)’ and ‘ending of killing- t benefits of the CFA. (Ref. Page 24)
A has not benefited the ordinary citizen, a majority of the lieves that the LTTE strengthening itself in Government son. (Ref. Page 25)
sfaction in Government’s commitment to the CFA, a Muslim (66.7%) communities are somewhat satisfied. The has a divided opinion (Somewhat satisfied- 37%, Not red to the February ‘06 PCI findings, those who are 44.8%) amongst the Sinhala community have increased.
action in LTTE’s commitment to the CFA, a majority of not satisfied at all. While a majority of the Up-Country somewhat satisfied, a majority of the Muslim (38.1%) f. Page 27)
e involvement of foreign monitors, a majority of Sinhala 0.5%) and Muslim (97.4%) communities think that it is mission for the CFA to succeed. It is noteworthy that munity who believe that an international third party is the Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities. When CI findings, those who think it is essential have decreased y- 69.3%, May- 53.3%) community. However, those who e a monitoring mission have increased amongst the Up- , May- 97.4%) and Muslim (February- 74.4%, May- 90.5%)
) community disagree with the statement that the SLMM the ceasefire agreement. A majority of Up-Country Tamil mmunities agree with the statement that the SLMM is e ceasefire agreement. When compared to the February of Muslim (February- 45.5%, May- 50%) community who percentage of Up-Country Tamil (February- 90%, May- as decreased. (Ref. Page 29)
) community disagree with the statement that the SLMM the ceasefire agreement. A majority of Up-Country Tamil mmunities agree with the statement that the SLMM is e ceasefire agreement. When compared to the February e of Muslim (February- 48.5%, May- 45.9%) and of Up- , May- 50%) communities who agree has decreased. (Ref.
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♦ A majority of the Sinhala (35.8%), Up-Country Tam
communities believe that an international third party is impact on the peace process. It is noteworthy that community who believe that an international third p positive impact on the peace process is lower compar Muslim communities. When compared to the Februa believe that it is essential and will have a positive imp Sinhala (February- 52.8%, May- 35.8%) community while Country Tamil (February- 56.7%, May- 73.8%) and Musl communities. (Ref. Page 31)
♦ When asked about the level of satisfaction with the
majority of Up-Country Tamil (48.3%) and Muslim (51 satisfied. The Sinhala community has a mixed opinion in Somewhat Satisfied- 29%, Not satisfied at all- 35.6%, Do Page 32)
♦ When asked if they approve or disapprove of Norway
process, a majority of the Sinhala (31%) community dis Country Tamil (58.5%) and Muslim (55.2%) communities
♦ Asked as to the most suitable country to play the role o
a majority of the Sinhala (45.1%) thinks India is the mos of facilitator. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (49%) most suitable country to play the role of facilitator. Th opinion (Japan- 28.2%, Norway- 25.6%, USA- 20.5%, Indi
♦ When asked about the need for India’s involvement in
the Sinhala (34.2%) community doesn’t know or are Country Tamil (76.9%) and Muslim (52.5%) communiti will have a positive impact on the peace process. Whe PCI findings, the Sinhala (February- 41.7%, May- 32%) essential and will have a positive impact have witnessed 35)
♦ Of those who are aware that the Government and the
22nd & 23rd of February 2006, a majority of the Up-Coun (46.2%) communities are somewhat satisfied with the ou the Sinhala (46.9%) community don’t know or not sure. (
♦ When asked as to which party benefited most in the las
Sinhala (43.9%) community don’t know or not sure. A m (39.3%) community believes neither the Government n talks. The Muslim (35%) community has a divided opin the LTTE- 15%, Both parties- 35%, Neither the Govt. n Not sure- 35%). (Ref. Page 37)
♦ When asked about their level of satisfaction with commitment to the pledges it made at the Geneva talks community has no opinion. While a majority of community is not satisfied at all, a majority of the somewhat satisfied. (Ref. Page 38)
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5.8%), Up-Country Tamil (73.8%) and Muslim (76.7%) ternational third party is essential and will have a positive . It is noteworthy that the percentage of the Sinhala an international third party is essential and will have a rocess is lower compared to the Up-Country Tamil and ompared to the February ‘06 PCI findings, those who will have a positive impact have decreased amongst the 35.8%) community while it has increased amongst the Up- , May- 73.8%) and Muslim (February- 64.2%, May- 76.7%)
of satisfaction with the Norwegian role as facilitator, a (48.3%) and Muslim (51.7%) communities are somewhat y has a mixed opinion in this regard (Very satisfied- 1.3%, satisfied at all- 35.6%, Don’t know/Not sure- 34.2%). (Ref.
r disapprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace ala (31%) community disapproves. A majority of the Up- lim (55.2%) communities approve. (Ref. Page 33)
ountry to play the role of facilitator to the peace process, ) thinks India is the most suitable country to play the role Up-Country Tamil (49%) community thinks Norway is the he role of facilitator. The Muslim community has a mixed
25.6%, USA- 20.5%, India- 25.6%). (Ref. Page 34)
r India’s involvement in the peace process, a majority of doesn’t know or are not sure. A majority of the Up- slim (52.5%) communities believe that it is essential and the peace process. When compared to the February ‘06 ary- 41.7%, May- 32%) community who believe that it is e impact have witnessed a significant decrease. (Ref. Page
he Government and the LTTE held talks in Geneva on the majority of the Up-Country Tamil (56.7%) and the Muslim hat satisfied with the outcome of the talks. A majority of don’t know or not sure. (Ref. Page 36)
benefited most in the last round of talks, a majority of the ’t know or not sure. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil ither the Government nor the LTTE benefited from the unity has a divided opinion (Only the Govt.- 7.5%, Only 5%, Neither the Govt. nor the LTTE- 7.5%, Don’t know/
vel of satisfaction with regard to the Government’s ade at the Geneva talks, a majority of the Sinhala (44.8%) While a majority of the Up-Country Tamil (41.4%) t all, a majority of the Muslim (58.5%) community is 38)
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♦ When asked about their level of satisfaction with rega the pledges it made at the Geneva talks, a majority of Tamil (36.7%) and Muslim (31.7%) communities are not
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (44.3%) community believe on
escalation of violence. A majority of the Up-Country T communities don’t know or not sure. (Ref. Page 40)
♦ As to the awareness about the Canadian ban of the
(55.9%) and the Up-Country Tamil (61.5%) communities A majority of the Muslim community has a divided opin 45%) (Ref. Page 41)
♦ Of those who are aware about the Canadian ban of th
(76.4%) and Muslim (44.4%) communities think that this the peace process. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil will have no impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 42)
♦ Of those who are aware of the JVP & Patriotic Natio
removing Norway from the Sri Lankan peace process, community approve of Norway being removed from the Up-Country Tamil (84%) and the Muslim (69.2%) com being removed from the peace process. (Ref. Page 43)
♦ When asked about their satisfaction with the JVP’s role
majority of the Sinhala (39.7%) community don’t know o Country Tamil (76.9%) and the Muslim (67.8%) commu 44)
♦ When asked about their satisfaction with the JHU’s role
a majority of the Sinhala (42.8%) community don’t kno Up-Country Tamil (75.8%) and the Muslim (65%) commu 45)
♦ Despite the attempted assassination on the army chie
majority of the Sinhala (63.1%), Up-Country Tam communities think that the Government should go for t
♦ Of those who are aware of the retaliatory attacks by the
aftermath of the bombing, a majority of the Sinhala (8 retaliatory attacks. (Ref. Page 47)
♦ When asked about the effectiveness of these retaliator
had mixed reactions (Effective- 44.8%, Not effective- 44.4%).(Ref. Page 48)
♦ Of those who are aware of the LTTE’s breakaway K Sinhala (36.8%) community thinks that the Karuna fac majority of the Up-Country Tamil (44.1%) communit should be disarmed. The Muslim community has a mixed
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of satisfaction with regard to the LTTE’s commitment to neva talks, a majority of the Sinhala (51.8%), Up-Country %) communities are not satisfied at all. (Ref. Page 39)
) community believe only the LTTE is responsible for the ity of the Up-Country Tamil (42.9%) and Muslim (46.6%) t sure. (Ref. Page 40)
e Canadian ban of the LTTE, a majority of the Sinhala mil (61.5%) communities state that they are unaware of it. unity has a divided opinion in this regard (Yes- 45%, No-
t the Canadian ban of the LTTE, a majority of the Sinhala munities think that this ban will have a positive impact on f the Up-Country Tamil (47.1%) community thinks that it e process. (Ref. Page 42)
he JVP & Patriotic National Movement’s strong calls for i Lankan peace process, a majority of the Sinhala (52.4%) being removed from the peace process. A majority of the the Muslim (69.2%) communities disapprove of Norway process. (Ref. Page 43)
ction with the JVP’s role in preserving peace in Sri Lanka, a community don’t know or not sure. A majority of the Up- Muslim (67.8%) communities are not satisfied. (Ref. Page
ction with the JHU’s role in preserving peace in Sri Lanka, ) community don’t know or not sure. A majority of the the Muslim (65%) communities are not satisfied. (Ref. Page
nation on the army chief Lt. General Sarath Fonseka, a 1%), Up-Country Tamil (65.5%) and Muslim (87.9%) ernment should go for talks in Geneva. (Ref. Page 46)
retaliatory attacks by the Government on the LTTE in the ajority of the Sinhala (80.3%) community approve of the 7)
eness of these retaliatory attacks, the Sinhala community - 44.8%, Not effective- 10.8%, Don’t know/ Not sure-
he LTTE’s breakaway Karuna faction, a majority of the nks that the Karuna faction should not be disarmed. A amil (44.1%) community thinks that the Karuna faction community has a mixed opinion (Karuna faction should
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be disarmed- 32.7%, Karuna faction should not be disarm sure- 32.7%). (Ref. Page 49)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (68.7%), Up-Country Tam
communities believe that the security condition in the to the situation a year ago. (Ref. Page 50)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (93.9%), Up-Country Tam
communities believe that the cost of living has increased ago. (Ref. Page 51)
For further information please
Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Ran
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternat
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@d Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://ww

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tion should not be disarmed- 30.6%, Don’t know/Not
8.7%), Up-Country Tamil (79.7%) and Muslim (88.3%) ecurity condition in the country has worsened compared f. Page 50)
3.9%), Up-Country Tamil (95.4%) and Muslim (100%) st of living has increased compared to the situation a year
6
rther information please contact:
eep Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator entre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
70472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
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Peace Confidence Index (P
May 2001 – May 2006
Important Issues Rating the degree of importance of five national issues.
Ethnic Breakdown
12.8
24.8 Muslim
16.9
17.4
10
27.1 14.1
27.9
0 10 20 30
%
28.1
10.7 Up-country Tamil
29.3 17.9 17.5
20.9
24.6
Sinhala

x
eace Confidence Index (PCI)
May 2001 – May 2006
f five national issues.
Ethnic Breakdown
24.8 16.9
27.1
27.9
20 30 40
%
The Tsunami Recovery 17.4
The peace process in Sri Lanka Conflict betw een different ethnic groups
Law and Order
The Economy
.1
28.1
20.9
29.3 17.9 17.5
24.6
Page 14

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Solutions With the recent escalation of violence, various opinion Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). In this context, some peop situation is better than pursuing a permanent settlement. O situation is bad and, therefore the Government and the solution, either through negotiations or war. Please tel describes your opinion.
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
3.4
9
2.4
%
Changes of Opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
10.9
96.6
7.8
Up-country
3.1 Tamil
78.1 10.9
Sinhala
13.5
75.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 1
100%
3.3 3.7
9 0.4
8.7 3.1
7.8 6.6
3.4
90%
6
80%
13.5
70%
60%
50%
95
90.6
78.1
84.7
96.6
40%
75.0
30%
20%
10%
0%
1.4 2.4 0.4
2.7 Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil Muslim

x
iolence, various opinions have been expressed about the his context, some people say that the continuation of this permanent settlement. Others argue that continuation of this he Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent ions or war. Please tell me which of the arguments best
Ethnic Breakdown
75.0
Page 15
No response/ No opinion
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through w ar
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and uslim communities
9
96.6
78.1
80 100 120
6.6
3.4
6
No response/ No opinion
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and
1
84.7
the LTTE should go for a permanent 96.6
solution through w ar
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation of this situation is better 2.7
than pursuing a final solution
'06 Feb '06 May '06
mil Muslim

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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Confidence I think the Government is committed to find peace through
Ethnic Breakdown
17.2 Muslim
24.1
39.7
15.9
0 20 40 60
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala,
Muslim communities
80
73.2
49.2
39.7
58.6
10.9
22.2 Up-country Tamil
38.1
Sinhala
100%
90%
15 15.9
22.2
1
80%
5.9
10.9
32.3
70%
1
60%
18.5 38.1
50%
40%
30%
6
20%
10%
0%
Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06 Fe
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
ted to find peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
58.6
38.1
73.2
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree 39.7
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
22.2
19.7 17.2 32.3
18.2 24.1
Don't know /Not sure
18.5 38.1
Disagree
Agree
49.2
39.7
62.1
58.6
eb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
p-Country Tamil Muslim
Page 16

Page 19
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Government is fully capable of finding peace thro
Ethnic Breakdown
13.8
Muslim
13.8
25.8
Up-country Tamil
43.5
30.6
27.2
Sinhala
17.1
55.7
0 20 40 60
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, Muslim communitie
100%
90%
24.4
27.2
25.8
19
80%
37.1
70%
10.6
16
60%
17.1
50%
16.1
43.5
40%
30%
65
20%
55.7
46.8
64
30.6 10%
0%
Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06 Feb
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
able of finding peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
55.7
72.4
43.5
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
.6
Agree
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
25.8
19.4
13.8
.1
.8
30.6
'06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
Country Tamil Muslim
13.8 16.4
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
.1
43.5
Agree
64.2
72.4
Page 17

Page 20
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
1.3
38.6 Muslim
45.6
23.8
0 20 40 60
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
7.3
15.8
19.4 Up-country Tamil
30.6
50
Sinhala
100%
90%
80%
36.6
23.8
28.6
19.4
34.8
70%
7.9
30.6 60%
50%
24.2
40%
56.1
75
30%
20%
63.5
50
40.9
10%
0%
1.3
Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06 Feb '0
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
ind peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
38.6
50
75
40 60 80
%
45.6
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
0.6
Agree
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
uslim communities
6
19.4
34.8
38.6
5
50
40.9
15.8
'06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
ountry Tamil Muslim
30.6
Don't know /Not sure
24.2
Disagree
Agree
45.6
Page 18

Page 21
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is fully capable in finding peace through tal
Ethnic Breakdown
21.4
Muslim
25
33.4
17.6
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, Muslim communitie
25.2
17.6
23 Up-country Tamil
34.4
42.6
Sinhala
49
100%
80%
40.1
33.4 32.2
23
3
60%
8.5
34.4
2
40%
34.8 49
59.3
20%
42.6 4
0%
Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06 Fe
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
finding peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
5
42.6
33.4
30 40 50 60
%
53.6
49
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
34.4
Agree
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
2.2
23
32.8
9.3
42.6 41.8
21.4
.5
34.4
b '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
p-Country Tamil Muslim
25
25.4
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
53.6
Page 19

Page 22
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Compared to the situation of the peace process a year country, at present, in approaching a permanent settlement
Ethnic Breakdown
18.6
Muslim
40.7
15.8
19.6
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala,
Muslim communities
22.8
19.6
20.3 20.3
13.3
Up-country Tamil
23.3 11.7
Sinhala
21.2
43.4
100%
11.1
15.8
7.9
13.3 13
80%
26.3
39.8
43.4
51.7
0%
Sep '06 May '06 Sep '06 May '06 Sep
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
3
60%
25
40%
26.3
16
21.2
20%
40.8
23.3
11.7
3

x
e peace process a year ago, how close do you think is the
a permanent settlement to the ethnic conflict?
Ethnic Breakdown
3.3
43.4
Page 20
40.7
30 40 50 60
%
Don't know /Not sure
Not close at all
Remains the same
Close
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities
8
11.7
51.7
13.3 13.6
18.6
3
Don't know /Not sure
35
Not close at all
51.7
40.7
Remains the same
Close
16.5
20.3 23.3
35
20.3
'06 May '06 Sep '06 May '06
Country Tamil Muslim

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If peace is to be found through negotiations, according to y in negotiations?
Ethnic Breakdown
10.2
Muslim
3.4
79.7
1.7
5.1
10.9
Up-Country Tamil
1.6
10.9
23.4
1.6
20.3
31.3
1.6
11.8
Sinhala
4
5.1
14.5
17.2
12.3
33.6
0 20 40 60 80
%

x
gotiations, according to your opinion, who should be involved
Ethnic Breakdown
79.7
60 80 100
Page 21
Don't know / Not sure
No peace talks
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Muslim parties and an international third party Govt, opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt. Opposition, LTTE , other Tamil parties, and an international third party
Govt. Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt. LTTE and International third party only
Govt. and the LTTE only

Page 24
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Given the current situation in the country, how likely is it t
Ethnic Breakdown
15.3 3.4 Muslim
1.7
22.9 2.1
24.5
0 10 20 30 4
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala,
Muslim communities
11.7
35.6
4.9
20.3 12.5 Up-Country Tamil
6.3
21.9
3
Sinhala
100%
90%
21.5
22.9
80%
2.1
30.8
20.3
14.
0%
Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06 Feb
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
11.
70%
8.7
4.9
7.7
12.5
60%
23.9
6.3 19.
50%
45.6
21.5
21.9
40%
30%
26.2
38. 34.3
20%
39.1
10%
24.5
13.8
14.

x
country, how likely is it that war will resume?
Ethnic Breakdown
24.5
35.6
22.9
Don'y know / Not sure
Very unlikely
Somew hat unlikely
Somew hat likely
Very likely
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities
8
44.1
20.3
21.9
45.6
30 40 50
%
39.1
20.3
14.9 15.3 8
11.9
3.4 1.7 12.5
6.3 19.4
35.6
Don'y know / Not sure
Very unlikely 5
21.9
Somew hat unlikely
Somew hat likely 38.8
Very likely 2
06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
Country Tamil Muslim
39.1
44.1
14.9
Page 22

Page 25
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) Some people say that the CFA has brought many benefits that the CFA has not yielded any benefits to them. In you from the CFA or not?
Ethnic Breakdown
4.8
Muslim
7.1
7.7
Up-Country Tamil
26.9
65.4
18.4
Sinhala
35.8
45.8
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes of opinion of Sinhala, Up-Country
communities
100%
10.3
18.4
67.3
45.8
5.3 7.7 80%
22.4
26.9
60%
35.8
94.7
40%
65.4
20%
0%
Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
s brought many benefits to ordinary citizens while others say benefits to them. In your opinion have Sri Lankans benefited
Ethnic Breakdown
45.8
Page 23
88.1
.8
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
No, they have not benefited
65.4
Yes, they have benefited
Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim
communities
5.3
7.7 7.4 4.8 94.7
65.4
eb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
Up-Country Tamil Muslim
7.1
16.7 26.9
Don't know /Not sure
No, they have not benefited
88.1
Yes, they have
75.9
benefited

Page 26
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
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If the answer is "Yes", please tell me three most important
Ethnic Breakdown
61.6
11.9
3.8
Muslim
31.3
51.6
57.2
71.2
30.3
27.6
20.8
1.5 Up-Country Tamil
74.9
42.8
32.8
57.7
27.9
26.2
6.8
5 Sinhala
59.2
40.0
46.0
25.9
35.5
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

x
e three most important benefits of the CFA.
Ethnic Breakdown
46.0
11.9
3.8
1.5
26.2
6.8
5.2
0% 80% 100%
Peaceful environment in the
71.2
30.3
27.6
country
Ending of killing
Ending of destruction
20.8
Freedom of movement 57.7
27.9
Development
Feeling of security
Avoid division of the country 25.9
35.5
Benefit to minority communities
Page 24

Page 27
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If you think that the CFA has not benefited, what do you th
Changes of opinion amongst the Sin
70
60
57.6
50
%
40
30
20
17.
10
6.8
7.5
0
LTTE
While giving strengthening
leadership to itself in
the SLMM, government
Norw ay controlled areas
becoming partial to the LTTE
Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu districts coming under complete LTTE control
Human violat includin conscri extortio political

x
enefited, what do you think is the main reason?
ion amongst the Sinhala community
7.5
17.3
4.1
1.0
nochchi and
Mullaitivu tricts coming der complete TTE control
Human rights violations including child conscriptions, extortion, and political killings
SLMM's inability to monitor various armed group retaliations on both parties
LTTE becomes know n as the sole representative of Tamils of north and east
Page 25

Page 28
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the Government's commitment
Ethnic Breakdown
4.8
Muslim
11.9
16.7
7.4
18.5 Up-Country Tamil
37.0 37.0
11.3 3.9 Sinhala
8.5
51.7 24.6
0 20 40 60
%

x
vernment's commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
Ethnic Breakdown
51.7
Page 26
66.7
37.0
40 60 80
%
No opinion
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
37.0
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied

Page 29
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the LTTE’s commitment to the
Ethnic Breakdown
0.2
11.9
17 Muslim
38.1 31.0 2.4
7.7
15 Up-Country Tamil
30.8
8.2
28.2 3.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
42.3 3.8
Sinhala

x
TE’s commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
Ethnic Breakdown
38.1
42.3
60
0 40 50 60 70
%
No opinion 31.0
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied 30.8
Very satisfied
28.2
Page 27

Page 30
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Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission What is your opinion on the need of a monitoring mission?
Ethnic Breakdown
2.6 Muslim
Up-country Tamil
9.5
13.7
53.3
0 20 40 60 80 10
%
Changes of opinion of the Sinhala, Up-Country T
communities
69.3
53.3
90.
Sinhala
32.9
100%
8.5
13.7
6.7 6.7
9.5
7 90%
80%
22.2
18
70%
32.9
60%
50%
40%
86.7
90.5
74
30%
20%
10%
0%
Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06 Feb
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
of a monitoring mission?
thnic Breakdown
53.3
97.4
60 80 100 120
%
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential
Is essential
inhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim ommunities
7
90.5
2.6 9.5
7
18.6
06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential
Is essential
90.5
97.4
74.4
Page 28

Page 31
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its m agreement.
Ethnic Breakdown
14.3
28.9 Muslim
21.1
27.6
0 20 40 60
%
Changes in the opinion amongst the Sinhala and Muslim communities
25.8
14.3
50.0
Up-country Tamil
16.7 11.1
Sinhala
58.1
100%
90%
17.6
27.6
5 5
16.7
2 80%
11.1 70%
60%
50%
56.7
58.1
90
2
40%
72.2 30%
20%
4
10%
0%
Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06 Fe
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
ission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire
Ethnic Breakdown
72.2
Page 29
9
40 60 80
%
50.0
58.1
Don't know / Not sure
Disagree
Agree
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil Muslim communities
5 5
16.7
27.3 28.9 11.1
27.3
0
72.2
45.5
b '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
p-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know / Not sure
Disagree
21.1
Agree
50.0

Page 32
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its m
Ethnic Breakdown
13.2
29.7 Muslim
24.3
30.7
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
Changes in the opinion amongst the Sinha
and Muslim communiti
34.9
13.2
45.9
20.0 Up-country Tamil
30.0
5
Sinhala
100%
5.3 90%
19.4
5.3
80%
30.7
20.0
2
70%
60%
45.7
30.0
2
50%
40%
56.1
89.5
30%
20%
50.0
4
10%
0%
Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06 Feb
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
ission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement
thnic Breakdown
50.0
Page 30
29.7 4.3
30.7
30 40 50 60
%
45.9
56.1
Don't know / Not sure
Disagree
30.0
Agree
n amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil d Muslim communities
.3 .3
20.0
27.3
29.7
30.0
27.3
24.3
9.5
50.0
48.5 45.9
b '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
p-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know / Not sure
Disagree
Agree

Page 33
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Foreign Involvement What is your opinion on the need for an internationa negotiations, to solve the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
18.3 1.7 Muslim
3.3
4.6
1.5
35.8
0 20 40 60 80
%
Sinhala Response: Is essential and will ha
52.8
35.8
76.7
13.8
Up-country
1.5 Tamils
4.6
4.1
18.7
73.8
27.0 7.0 Sinhala
7.5
90
80
73.8
70
60
56.7 %
50
40
30
20
10
0
Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '0
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
eed for an international third party as a facilitator to the
nflict in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
73.8
Page 31
Don't know /Not sure
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact
Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
essential and will have a positive impact
56.7
76.7
60 80 100
%
73.8
76.7
64.2
Feb '06 May '06 Feb '06 May '06
Up-Country Tamil Muslim

Page 34
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The Norwegian government has been officially facilitating p 2001. Please tell me your level of satisfaction with the Norw
Ethnic Breakdown
1.3
20.0
Muslim
11.7
34.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
5 16.7
20.0 Up-country
10.0 Tamils
35.6 29.0
48.3 21.7
Sinhala

x
een officially facilitating peace negotiations since November atisfaction with the Norwegian role as facilitator.
thnic Breakdown
29.0
Page 32
51.7
35.6
Don't know /Not sure
Not satisfied at all
Somew hat satisfied
48.3
Very satisfied
34.2
30 40 50 60
%

Page 35
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state if you approve or disapprove of Norway contin
Ethnic Breakdown
12.1
Muslim
8.6
24.1
25.6
31.0
15.2
0 20 40 60
%
55.2
15.4 Up-country
15.4 Tamils
10.8
28.1
58.5
Sinhala

x
pprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace process.
Ethnic Breakdown
58.5
Page 33
Refuse to answ er 55.2
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
40 60 80
%

Page 36
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state the most suitable country that should play the process.
Ethnic Breakdown
11.5
25.6
Muslim
20.5
25.6
28.2
35.3
Up-country Tamils
5.9
9.8
Sinhala
8.4
35.0
0 10 20 30 40

x
ntry that should play the role of facilitator in the peace
Ethnic Breakdown
28.2
49.0
Page 34
25.6 20.5
45.1
20 30 40 50 60
25.6
India
United States of America
35.3
Norw ay
Japan
35.0

Page 37
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What is your opinion of the need for India's involvement in
Ethnic Breakdown
20.3 6.8
Muslim
3.4
13.6
3.4
1.5 1.5
34.2 4.7
32.0
%
52.5
9.2
Up-country
3.1
Tamils
7.7
76.
Sinhala
6.6 5.7
16.8
0 20 40 60 80

x
for India's involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process?
Ethnic Breakdown
76.9
Page 35
Don't know /Not sure
52.5
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact
Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
60 80 100
%

Page 38
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Geneva Talks How satisfied are you with the outcome of the last round o
Ethnic Breakdown
6.7
20.5
Muslim
25.6
46.2 7.7
6.7 Up Country
30 Tamils
46.9
Sinhala
19.9
29.6
3.6
0 10 20 30 40 50

x
tcome of the last round of peace talks?
Ethnic Breakdown
.6
46.2
56.7
46.9 29.6
30 40 50 60
Don't know / Not sure
Not satisfied at all
30
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
Page 36

Page 39
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
In your opinion which party benefited most in the last roun
Ethnic Breakdown
5.3
35 7.5 Muslim
35 15 7.5
21.4 Up Country Tamils
39.3 17.9 10.7 10.7
43. 13.3 Sinhala
9.2
28.3
0 10 20 30 40

x
ited most in the last round of talks?
Ethnic Breakdown
28.3
35
35
39.3
43.9
30 40 50
Don't know / Not sure
Neither the Government nor the LTTE Both parties
Only the LTTE
Only the Government
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please tell me your level of satisfaction with regard to the G pledges it made at the Geneva talks?
Ethnic Breakdown
14.6 9.8 Muslim
4.9
12.2
6.9
44.8 3.8
27 20.9
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
41.4 Up-Country Tamils
27.6 24.1
Sinhala
3.4

x
tion with regard to the Government's commitment to the s?
Ethnic Breakdown
27
Page 38
58.5
No opinion
Not satisfied at all
Somew hat dissatisfied
27.6
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied 41.4
.1
44.8
30 40 50 60 70
%

Page 41
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please tell me your level of satisfaction with regard to the L made at the Geneva talks?
Ethnic Breakdown
10
19.5
31.7 Muslim
24.4 22 2.4
6.7 Up-Country Tamils
36.7 23.3 23.3
41.7
Sinhala
5.7 0.8
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

x
tion with regard to the LTTE's commitment to the pledges it
thnic Breakdown
4
51.8
Page 39
31.7
41.7
30 40 50 60
%
No opinion
Not satisfied at all
Somew hat dissatisfied 36.7
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied

Page 42
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Escalation of Violence Who do you think is primarily responsible for the escalatio
Ethnic Breakdown
8.8
46.6
Muslim
1.7 1.7
10.3
12.1
1.7
1.6
15
1.9
3.6
44.3 10.8
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
25.9
10.5
42.9
Up-country
14.3
20.6 Tamil
4.8
11.1
Sinhala
2.9

x
ponsible for the escalation of violence?
Ethnic Breakdown
46.6
5.9
44.3
30 40 50
Don't know /Not sure
Karuna faction only
Security forces only
42.9
Paramilitary groups only
LTTE only
LTTE, the security forces and the Karuna faction LTTE and the paramilitary groups
LTTE and the karuna faction
LTTE and the security forces
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
LTTE ban in Canada Are you aware that the Canadian government banned the L Anti Terrorism Act?
Ethnic Breakdown
10.0
Muslim
45.0
2.2
41.9
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
45.0
10.8 Up-Country Tamil
27.7
Sinhala
5

x
government banned the LTTE as a terrorist group under the
thnic Breakdown
41.9
Page 41
45.0
0 40 50 60 70
%
45.0
Refuse to answ er
No
Yes
61.5
27.7
55.9

Page 44
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
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If “yes”, what do you think will be the impact of this ban o
Ethnic Breakdown
11.1
Muslim
14.8
25.9
44.4
11.8 Up-Country
47.1 Tamil
11.8
23.5
9.8
Sinhala
8.1 5.7
76.
0 20 40 60 80
%

x
the impact of this ban on the peace process?
Ethnic Breakdown
76.4
Don't know /Not sure 44.4
No impact
A negative impact 47.1
A positive impact
60 80 100
%
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JVP & Patriotic National Movement’s strong calls for remov In your opinion, do you approve or disapprove of Norway process?
Ethnic Breakdown
7.7
Muslim
52.4
0 20 40 60 80
%
69.2
23.1
12
Up-country Tamil
4
25.6
Sinhala
22

x
t’s strong calls for removing Norway from the peace process r disapprove of Norway being removed from the peace
thnic Breakdown
52.4
Page 43
69.2
60 80 100
%
Don't know / Not sure
Disapprove
84
Approve

Page 46
3844
Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the JVP's role in preserving peac
Ethnic Breakdown
25.4
Muslim
6.8
32.3 7.1
67.8
16.9
Up-country Tamil
76.9
6.2
39.7
Sinhala
20.9
0 20 40 60 80
%

x
's role in preserving peace in Sri Lanka?
thnic Breakdown
67.8
76.9
.7
60 80 100
%
Don't know / Not sure
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
Page 44

Page 47
3845
Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the JHU's role in preserving pea
Ethnic Breakdown
4
26.7
Muslim
6.7
0 20 40 60
65
1.7
21.2
Up-country Tamil
3
42.8
Sinhala
24.6
28.5
%

x
's role in preserving peace in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
65
75.8
42.8
40 60 80
%
Don't know / Not sure
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
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Page 48
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Recent Bombing Given the attempted assassination on the army chief Lt. Ge the Government should go for talks in Geneva?
Ethnic Breakdown
6.9
Muslim
5.2
13.8
Up Country Tamils
20.7
19.6
63.1
0 20 40 60 8
%
65.5
Sinhala
17.3

x
on the army chief Lt. General Sarath Fonseka, do you think s in Geneva?
Ethnic Breakdown
63.1
Page 46
87.9
0 60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
No
Yes 65.5

Page 49
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If "yes", do you approve or disapprove of these retaliatory
Response of the Sinhala com
100
80.3 80
60
%
40
20
9.7
0
Approve Disapprove D

x
rove of these retaliatory attacks by the Government?
of the Sinhala community
9.7 10
Disapprove Don't know / Not sure
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Page 50
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In your opinion, how effective are those retaliatory attacks
Response of the Sinhala comm
60
44.8
40
%
20
10.8
0
Effective Not effective

x
those retaliatory attacks on the LTTE ?
of the Sinhala community
10.8
44.4
Not effective Don't know / Not sure
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Karuna Group "Some people say Karuna faction should be disarmed while tell me your opinion in this regard.
Ethnic Breakdow
32.7
Muslim
30.6
27.8
32.1
0 10 20 30 40
%
32.7
38.2 Up-Country Tamils
8.8
Sinhala
36.8

x
hould be disarmed while others say they should not". Please .
Ethnic Breakdown
32.1
Page 49
32.7
30 40 50
%
30.6
27.8
Don't know / Not sure 32.7
No, they should not be disarmed
38.2
Yes, they should be disarmed
36.8
44.1

Page 52
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Current Security Condition Compared to the situation a year ago, do you think the sec improved or worsened?
Ethnic Breakdown
6.7
Muslim
5
9.4
Up-Country Tamils
10.9
13.4
Sinhala
68.
17.9
0 20 40 60
%

x
ago, do you think the security situation in the country has
Ethnic Breakdown
68.7
Page 50
88.3
40 60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Worsened
Improved
79.7

Page 53
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Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Cost of Living Compared to the situation a year ago, do you think the cos increased or decreased?
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
3.1
Up-Country Tamil
3.7
Sinhala
0 20 40 60 80
%

x
ago, do you think the cost of living in the country has
Ethnic Breakdown
93.9
100
Don't Know / Not sure
Decreased
Increased
60 80 100 120
%
95.4
Page 51

Page 54
Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in May 2006
DISTRICT TOT Colombo 14 Gampaha 15 Kalutara 80 Kandy 95 Matale 34 Nuwara Eliya 56 Galle 81 Matara 60 Hambantota 42 Kurunegala 11 Puttalam 54 Anuradhapura 57 Polonnaruwa 29 Badulla 61 Monaragala 32 Ratnapura 80 Kegalle 59 NATIONAL 122
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in May 2006
ETHNICITY TOT Sinhala 110 Muslim 60 Up-Country Tamil 66 NATIONAL 122

ex
Annex
ribution in May 2006
TOTAL 144 154 80 95 34 56 81 60 42 110 54 57 29 61 32 80 59 1228
ibution in May 2006
Y TOTAL
1103 60 66 1228
6
i

Page 55
Copyright © Social Indicator May 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) s in public confidence levels towards the peace process ove be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the February 2004, PCI was conducted bi-monthly, howeve decided to conduct the study quarterly to make the PCI mo
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1800 respondents during each phase of the capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of te undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace pro factors, the ethnic factor, which is the most important and i been accommodated in this model.
The total sample is distributed amongst 17 administrat excluding the North and East provinces due to the escala to the survey. The sample size assigned to each strat population proportions. However, some districts are o heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a distr of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Se primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sam Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected random using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 199 Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensure a m within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a max GND. Within a given GND, the enumerator is advised to s proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand the random selection of households.
In the case of urban areas, the interviewer is instructed t households, thus resulting in the interview-taking place at final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the ho ensuring that each member of the household has an equ PCI sample.
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model do analysis at the same level of precision.

ex
nfidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations the peace process over time it is essential that the study al pauses during the study. Hence, from May 2001 to d bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI rly to make the PCI more efficient.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of ring each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to ty within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is ion on the peace process is influenced by a number of e most important and influential, is the sole factor that has
ongst 17 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, ces due to the escalation of violence in the months prior ssigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.
r ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit ons of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of
frame.
work and ensure a maximum dispersion of the sample ed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a merator is advised to select a starting point randomly and ndom walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure .
rviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the erview-taking place at every alternative household. As the is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus household has an equal chance of being selected to the
subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. hat the PCI model does not support the regional level on.
6
ii

Page 56
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