Page 1
An Opinio
Peace Confider
ALSOIN THIS WAVE...
PRESENTVOLENCE
KARUNAGROUP
TTEREQUEST TO REMOVE EUMONITORS
JVP, UNP& THE GOVERNMENT
SPECULATIONS ON DISSOLVING THE PARLIAMENT
HUMAN RIGHTSABUSES
 

in Poll On Peace
e Index (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
JULY 2006
Social Indicator

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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
EVELO
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
(PCI) T
OP
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX -L
INE
R
ESULTS
IMPORTANT ISSUES
S
OLUTIONS
C
ONFIDENCE
C
EASEFIRE
(CFA)
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION (SLMM)
FOREIGN INVOLVEMENT
• P
OLITICAL
A
GREEMENT
D
EVELOPMENTS
P
RESENT
V
IOLENCE
KARUNA GROUP
LTTE REQUEST TO REMOVE EU MONITORS
JVP
AND THE GOVERNMENT
UNP AND THE GOVERNMENT
S
PECULATIONS ON
T
H
UMAN RIGHTS ABUSES
CURRENT SECURITY CONDITIONS
C
OST OF
P
RESIDENT
D
ISSOLVING
L
IVING
• A
NNEX

ex
01 ERNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
02 08 X
(PCI) 14
14
15
16
(CFA) 23
MISSION (SLMM) 28
31
S
36
37
VE EU MONITORS 42
ENT
43
ENT 47
IDENT
D
ISSOLVING
T
HE PARLIAMENT
48
49
NDITIONS 51
52

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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I
NTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop
public confidence in the peace process using a set of s
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set o
economic and political developments in order to gauge p
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will pro
useful barometer of Sri Lankan polity’s opinions, and ens
given due importance and incorporated into the policy deb
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The survey is carried out using a structured questionnai
interviews amongst a 1300 randomly selected sample.
administrative districts, excluding the North and East d
months prior. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnog
which the sample was surveyed.
This is the twenty third wave of the PCI study, which w
publication presents only the top-line results of the July 200
The results of these twenty three waves offer us data f
public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from percep
political developments. The results are subjected to a 3% m
** This particular wave of the PCI only covers the Sinhal
communities in the areas outside North and East.

Index
I
NTRODUCTION
-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
rocess using a set of standardized questions, which remain
other is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
ents in order to gauge public opinion on the peace process,
m one wave to another.
a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
olity’s opinions, and ensure that such collective opinions are
rated into the policy debate.
a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
domly selected sample. This survey was conducted in 17
the North and East due to the violence prevalent in the
reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in
the PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This
line results of the July 2006 survey.
e waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing
es, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to current
s are subjected to a 3% margin of error.
I only covers the Sinhala, Muslim and the Up-Country Tamil
North and East.
Page 1

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
K
EY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMEN
• The Government on May 17 expressed hope it could meet Mission if it was to resume sea monitoring activities suspende on 18 May 2006)
• The Government has not wavered from its earlier commit LTTE's aborted attempt to attack the troop carrier Pearl C Rambukwella said on May 17. (17 May 2006)- (Daily News on 1
• The technical committee of the European Union on May 17 banned organization in the European Union, highly placed dip went to press, the ‘clearing house’ of the EU was going throu expected that it would make the announcement on the LTTE 19 May 2006)
• The LTTE has begun to train all children over 14 years of age up training camps in all villages for this purpose. The training and would continue for a period of two months. (The Island on
• President Mahinda Rajapakse is believed to have authorized the LTTE threatened war if the EU listed it as a terrorist or raging controversy over the inordinate delay in bolstering th (The Island on 21 May 2006)
• The LTTE Batticaloa – Ampara intelligence chief and a top ra Ramanan was killed allegedly by Karuna cadres on May 21 eve 2006)
• Indian navy personnel have recovered the bodies of five Sri L boat capsized in the Palk Straits on May 20 morning. A group towards the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu when the in on 22 May 2006)
• The United Nations and the United States on May 22 cond offices in Muttur while the government also denounced the a 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 23 May 2006)
• Amid fears of another war, peace broker Norway on May 22 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 23 May 2006)
• The European Union on May 23 welcomed the government’s on May 15 and 21 but complained that the government had fa to do so. (23 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 24 May 2006)
• Referring to a recent speech by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister speak to Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh about TULF leader, V. Anandasangaree has written to Karunanidhi s to intervene for settling Sri Lanka’s national problem. (The Islan
• Some low-ranking Sri Lankan troops may be in contact with but there is no evidence of large-scale collusion, the head of t 23. (23 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 24 May 2006)
• Norwegian special envoy Hanssen Bauer's visit today to diplomatic sources although there is no mention of any spec peace deadlock. (Daily News on 24 May 2006)
• Norwegian Minister and peace envoy Erik Solheim on M breakthrough in the peace process when he visits Sri Lanka la he visited the country under similar circumstances last Decem 2006)
• An LTTE pistol gang has reportedly executed a husband and for not attending the civilian military training program held a f said. (23 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 25 May 2006)
∗ For the purpose of accuracy, un-dated indicators (in th “yesterday/today/tomorrow” are edited to indicate their exact d
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TIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
M
AY
2006 – J
ULY
2006*
sed hope it could meet the requirements of the Sri Lanka Monitoring toring activities suspended since May 14. (17 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror
from its earlier commitment to see peace talks resume, despite the e troop carrier Pearl Cruise II, Defence Affairs Spokesman Keheliya y 2006)- (Daily News on 18 May 2006)
pean Union on May 17 made a recommendation to list the LTTE as a Union, highly placed diplomatic sources said. By the time this edition the EU was going through the recommendation on May 18, and it was ouncement on the LTTE ban shortly. (17 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on
ren over 14 years of age in armed combat and survival. They have set is purpose. The training is confined to two one-hour sessions per day o months. (The Island on 19 May 2006) ved to have authorized acquisition of urgently required armaments as listed it as a terrorist organisation. This comes in the backdrop of the te delay in bolstering the firepower of Fast Attack Craft (FAC) fleet.
igence chief and a top ranking military head of the LTTE in Batticaloa, na cadres on May 21 evening. (21 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 22 May
d the bodies of five Sri Lankan Tamil refugees who drowned after their ay 20 morning. A group of 19 Tamil refugees were travelling in a boat Tamil Nadu when the incident took place. (20 May 2006)- (The Island
States on May 22 condemned May 21 attack on international NGO nt also denounced the attacks which it said was under probe. (22 May ) oker Norway on May 22 prepared to launch a fresh salvage effort. (22 2006)
omed the government’s condemnation of the attacks on INGO offices at the government had failed to take follow-up action despite its pledge or on 24 May 2006)
il Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi that he would intervene and Manmohan Singh about Sri Lanka’s ethnic problem if the need arises, written to Karunanidhi saying that the time is now opportune for him ational problem. (The Island on 24 May 2006)
may be in contact with armed groups opposed to Tamil Tiger rebels, e collusion, the head of the government's peace secretariat said on May 24 May 2006)
Bauer's visit today to Sri Lanka has been described as crucial by no mention of any specific proposals towards a breakthrough in the ay 2006) voy Erik Solheim on May 23 downplayed high expectations of a hen he visits Sri Lanka later this week, despite being the saviour when circumstances last December. (23 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 24 May
xecuted a husband and wife publicly in the Mullaitivu town on May 23 training program held a few days ago in an LTTE camp, civilian sources n 25 May 2006)
dated indicators (in the reproduced news items) such as d to indicate their exact date.

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The UNP on May 25 warned there might be intervention b conflict in Sri Lanka if the Mahinda Rajapaksa administration process. (25 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 26 May 2006)
• As the European Union is finalizing a formal ban on the LT countries to follow suit. The plea was made by Foreign Minist (24 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 26 May 2006)
• Suspected LTTE cadres on May 26 gunned down a Deputy project in Batticaloa. (Daily Mirror on 27 May 2006)
• Visiting Norwegian peace envoys Jon Hanssen Bauer and Inte met President Mahinda Rajapaksa on May 26, in a bid to kick s said. (26 May 2006)- (Daily News on 27 May 2006)
• The Government of India has renewed its ban on the Libe organisation’s objective for a separate homeland for all Tam territorial integrity of India. (The Island on 28 May 2006)
• The Nordic truce monitoring mission on May 28 claimed interested in resolving their differences through negotiation head of the five-nation mission, acknowledged that there was to talk. (The Island on 29 May 2006)
• Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission chief Gen. Ulf Henricsson on M still holds true, said nobody can expect miracles when worki 29 May 2006)
• The LTTE on May 29 formally announced it would take part i SLMM monitors in Sri Lanka in what would be the first tim negotiating table since the February Geneva talks. (29 May 200
• The Co-Chair group, Norway, US, EU and Japan, will meet situation and to do a 'soul searching' of achievements and failu crucial juncture is expected to discuss mainly the situation in t to which the Government had been trying hard to get the L months. (Daily News on 30 May 2006)
• The LTTE has allegedly threatened Muslims living in governm asking them to vacate the area within the next 72 hours o soldiers were killed and one injured in suspected LTTE attac May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 30 May 2006)
• The JVP on May 29 said it was totally against the bringing in of Lanka was not a failed state as claimed by certain sections o political parties. (29 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 30 May 2006)
• The government on May 30 welcomed the European Un commitment to a negotiated settlement to the country’s eth May 2006)
• Hours after the European Union imposed a ban on the LTT civilians and injured two at Omathiyamadu area in Welikand Samarasinghe said. (30 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 31 May 20
• The Tokyo Co-chairs on May 30 called on the Governmen reverse the deteriorating situation and put the country back Island on 31 May 2006)
• In a move that would give a boost to the fragile peace proces it was willing to meet the LTTE in Oslo to discuss matters p Peace Secretariat Head, Palitha Kohona told the Daily Mirror in talks in Oslo on June 8 – 9 with regard to the security o 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 01 June 2006)
• President Mahinda Rajapakse on June 2 called upon all politic the national question with an understanding of today’s reali 2006)
• The government on June 2 claimed that underaged LTTE recr 12 civilians at Omathiyamadu in Welikanda. (02 June 2006)- (D
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might be intervention by United Nations troops to settle the ethnic Rajapaksa administration did not act effectively to resume the peace r on 26 May 2006) a formal ban on the LTTE, Sri Lanka has called on the oil-rich Arab s made by Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera, on May 24, in Doha. May 2006)
gunned down a Deputy Director of a World Bank-backed irrigation n 27 May 2006)
Hanssen Bauer and International Development Minister Erik Solheim May 26, in a bid to kick start the stalled truce talks, diplomatic sources 27 May 2006)
ed its ban on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam saying that the te homeland for all Tamils continues to threaten the sovereignty and nd on 28 May 2006)
ion on May 28 claimed that the warring LTTE factions were not ces through negotiations. Maj. General. Ulf Henricsson, the Swedish owledged that there was no evidence to suggest that they were willing
en. Ulf Henricsson on May 28 insisting that the Ceasefire Agreement ect miracles when working for peace. (28 May 2006)- (Daily News on
nced it would take part in the upcoming Oslo talks on the safety of the t would be the first time the government and the rebels sit at the eneva talks. (29 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 30 May 2006) U and Japan, will meet in Tokyo today to take stock of the current of achievements and failures up to date. The group which will meet at a s mainly the situation in the North and East and the next round of talks trying hard to get the LTTE's consent to participate, for the past few 6)
uslims living in government-controlled areas at Muttur in Trincomalee in the next 72 hours or face the consequences while at least three in suspected LTTE attacks in Batticaloa and Vavuniya on May 29. (29 2006)
against the bringing in of UN troops to the country and maintained Sri ed by certain sections of the international community and some local ly Mirror on 30 May 2006)
med the European Union ban on the LTTE whilst reiterating its ent to the country’s ethnic issue. (30 May 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 31
posed a ban on the LTTE, suspected Tiger cadres shot dead twelve amadu area in Welikanda early on May 30, military spokesman Prasad
aily Mirror on 31 May 2006) lled on the Government and the LTTE to "take immediate steps to nd put the country back on the road to peace".(30 May 2006)- (The
the fragile peace process in the country, the Government May 31 said slo to discuss matters pertaining to ceasefire monitors. Government na told the Daily Mirror that the Government was ready to take part regard to the security of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission. (8-9 June 6)
2 called upon all political parties to cooperate in finding a solution to standing of today’s realities. (02 June 2006)- (The Island on 03 June
hat underaged LTTE recruits had taken part in last May 30 massacre of kanda. (02 June 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 03 June 2006)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Norway said on June 2 that it would work with the LTTE in a EU having officially added the rebel group to its terror blackl 2006)
• Despite the Nordic truce monitoring mission suspending n attack on a naval convoy off the Mullaitivu coast, the n Trincomalee and Kankasanthurai. (The Island on 04 June 2006)
• The LTTE said on June 5 the outcome of the Oslo talks thi suspended second round of Geneva talks with the EU ban progress. (05 June 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 06 June 2006)
• Many an eyebrow has been raised in security circles by the area surrounding the Welisara Navy base. The LTTE cadres, according to sources, had waited for a long time in a vacant precautionary measures been adopted they could have been June 2006)
• The much awaited Oslo talks failed to kick off June 08 after th Government team to discuss the issues related to the operat its security. (08 June 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 09 June 2006)
• The LTTE has no rights in the sea or in Sri Lanka's air space spokesperson of Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) Helen
• The Government Peace Secretariat said it would get the LTT constitution aimed at ending the ethnic issue. Secretariat Head he was “optimistic” that the LTTE would respond positively to government will be inviting them to get involved directly in th Oslo to discuss the role of the SLMM. (02 June 2006)- (Daily M
• OSLO-Norway today blamed the European Union for contri government and the LTTE which has thrown the question of f rebels aborted a two-day meeting in Oslo with governme discuss the safety of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission oversee the presence of EU members in the SLMM following a decisio its list of terrorist organizations. (AFP). (Daily Mirror on 10 Jun
• The Government on June 9 expressed concern over an unfou 4, 2006 by the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, on the impleme the GOSL and the LTTE at the Geneva Talks of 22-23 Februa would be submitted at the second session of the CFA talks to (04 June 2006)- (The Island on 10 June 2006)
• In a move that is likely to further strain the relations be President Mahinda Rajapaksa is to take Norway to task over t is expected to send a strongly-worded reply claiming that No parity of status to the government and a terrorist organization June 2006)
• Monitoring activities will continue unchanged until the gove questions posed by Norway in relation to the future of the monitors, the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission said yesterday. “O the future once the parties respond to the questions posed b 20,” SLMM spokesman Thorfinnur Omarsson said. (Daily Mirro
• The main opposition UNP warned the government on June 1 total collapse unless urgent and effective action was taken to chairs and India. The party’s assistant general secretary Tissa A process was in tatters with the continued escalation of viol (Daily Mirror on 14 June 2006)
• The LTTE would soon establish self rule in the North and Ea Thamilselvan said addressing a press conference in Switzerlan LTTE has been banned by the European Union, donor coun government is not honest in their peace moves and under the other than declaring self rule, he is reported to have said. (The
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work with the LTTE in an effort to facilitate a peace deal, despite the roup to its terror blacklist. (02 June 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 03 June
g mission suspending naval monitoring consequent to the May 11 Mullaitivu coast, the navy is moving men and material between e Island on 04 June 2006) me of the Oslo talks this week would decide the future of the now talks with the EU ban on the rebels threatening to scuttle further or on 06 June 2006) n security circles by the failure of the Navy to effectively patrol the base. The LTTE cadres, who launched June 6 claymore mine attack, r a long time in a vacant block of land close to this vital camp. Had d they could have been detected. (06 June 2006)- (The Island on 07
o kick off June 08 after the LTTE refused to sit down with a low level es related to the operations of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission and irror on 09 June 2006)
r in Sri Lanka's air space according to international law, stressed the
Mission (SLMM) Helen Olafsdottir. (Daily News on 09 June 2006) aid it would get the LTTE also involved in the task of drafting a new ic issue. Secretariat Head Palitha Kohona told the Times of India, that uld respond positively to the move. “This will be the first time that a et involved directly in the drafting process,” he said before leaving for . (02 June 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 09 June 2006) ropean Union for contributing to a breakdown in talks between the thrown the question of further Norwegian mediation wide open. The in Oslo with government representatives arranged by Norway to nitoring Mission overseeing a fragile truce. They said they objected to LMM following a decision by the EU last month to place the LTTE on ). (Daily Mirror on 10 June 2006) d concern over an unfounded and prejudicial report, released on June Mission, on the implementation of the Agreements reached between va Talks of 22-23 February 2006. It had been agreed that this report ssion of the CFA talks to be held from April 19 -26, 2006 in Geneva. e 2006)
strain the relations between the government and the facilitators, e Norway to task over the letter fired by it on Friday. The President ed reply claiming that Norway has made a “glaring mistake” by giving d a terrorist organization in the second question. (Daily Mirror on 12
nchanged until the government and the LTTE respond to the five ion to the future of the ceasefire agreement and the safety of the ission said yesterday. “Our monitoring will go on. We will decide on to the questions posed by Norway. We expect the response by June marsson said. (Daily Mirror on 13 June 2006) he government on June 13 that the peace process was heading for a tive action was taken to get it back on track with the help of the Co- general secretary Tissa Attanayake told a news conference, the peace tinued escalation of violence in the north and east. (13 June 2006)-
rule in the North and East of the country, Political Wing leader S. P. conference in Switzerland, according to reports reaching Wanni. The pean Union, donor countries have restricted aid and the Sri Lankan ce moves and under these circumstances the LTTE has no alternative ported to have said. (The Island on 14 June 2006)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• In the aftermath of the breakdown of the Oslo talks last wee it would not present any new mediation or peace initiati government and the LTTE. (Daily Mirror on 14 June 2006)
• Amnesty International has called for urgent action to locate t from a Jaffna Hindu temple where they were spending the n their safety. (Daily Mirror on 14 June 2006)
• No special treatment was given to the arriving LTTE O Bandaranaike International Airport, June 14. (Daily News on 15
• The government on May 14 responded to the five questio reiterated their commitment to Sri Lanka’s peace effort. “As a five points as we have already supported these factors regardi of fine tuning,” defence spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella sa 2006)
• The government strongly condemned June 15’s Kebithigollew saying the time had come to seriously re-evaluate the fragi necessary. Media Minister Anura Priyadharshana Yapa said the carried out by terrorists with the aim of instigating a backlash 16 June 2006)
• The LTTE issued a media statement in Kilinochchi on June 15 violence used for political ends," Tamilnet reported. Armed under any circumstances," the LTTE said charging that Sri L their attacks on Tamil civilians for political ends, have also be blaming the Tigers. (Daily Mirror on 16 June 2006)
• The breakaway LTTE eastern commander and Thamil Makk Amman in an exclusive interview with the Daily Mirror lashed suggests some elements within the government security forc attack the LTTE. (Daily Mirror on 16 June 2006)
• The government is to reassess its commitment to the Ce military action in the light of June 15 claymore mine blast by injured in an attack on a bus at Kongollewa (sic). (The Island on
• The LTTE said on June 16 the war environment now experien agreement as a document now remained only on paper and retaliate for any further “limited operations” carried out by secretariat Head S. Puleedevan told the Daily Mirror the government security forces created a “serious situation” whic the war. (16 June 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 17 June 2006)
• The government on June 16 dismissed LTTE claims that civili and Army bombardments launched after Thursday’s claymore Prasad Samarasinghe told the Daily Mirror the Air Force had in the North and East had hit intended rebel targets. (Daily Mir
• Three more damaged attack boats, left behind by the LTTE, w from the sea north of Mannar, as the Navy continues with its sailors. Military sources said that the Navy and Air Force gun which had participated at the Mannar sea drama, being taken battle. (Daily Mirror on 19 June 2006)
• Two Sinhala boatmen are under interrogation for their allege Saturday morning at Pamunugama. The navy intercepted their way back after dropping the squad of frogmen tasked with tar the custody of the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) t succeeded, would have had a catastrophic impact on the coun
• The LTTE is yet to respond to the five critical questions put f and the LTTE, regarding the future of the SLMM with the dea Mirror on 20 June 2006)
• Suspected LTTE cadres launched a major strike on troops gua on June 19. The ancient Buddhist site came under attack wh using small arms around 5.50 pm. (Daily Mirror on 21 June 200
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f the Oslo talks last week, the Norwegian government said yesterday diation or peace initiative in the Sri Lankan conflict involving the rror on 14 June 2006)
urgent action to locate the eight Tamils who went missing on May 6 ey were spending the night and it has expressed grave concern for 2006)
the arriving LTTE Oslo team led by S.P. Thamilselvam at the ne 14. (Daily News on 15 June 2006) ded to the five questions posed by Norway while the facilitators anka’s peace effort. “As a government we have no problem with these ted these factors regarding the SLMM although it might just need a bit eheliya Rambukwella said. (14 June 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 15 June
d June 15’s Kebithigollewa massacre as “barbaric and inhuman while sly re-evaluate the fragile ceasefire agreement and restructure it if adharshana Yapa said the government strongly condemned the attack of instigating a backlash to fulfill their evil designs. (Daily Mirror on
n Kilinochchi on June 15 condemning the Kebithigollewa as "senseless milnet reported. Armed acts targeting civilians "cannot be justified said charging that Sri Lankan armed elements who have intensified litical ends, have also begun targeting Sinhala civilians with the aim of 16 June 2006)
ander and Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pullikal (TMVP) leader Karuna h the Daily Mirror lashed out at the post Geneva SLMM report which government security forces are collaborating with Karuna cadres to
June 2006) commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement and resort to deterrent claymore mine blast by the LTTE which killed 61 and left 45 others llewa (sic). (The Island on 16 June 2006) vironment now experienced in the country had placed the cease fire ained only on paper and warned its commanders were prepared to rations” carried out by the government security forces. LTTE peace d the Daily Mirror the air and ground raids carried out by the “serious situation” which indicated the government was re-launching r on 17 June 2006) d LTTE claims that civilian locations took the brunt of the Air Force fter Thursday’s claymore attack in Kebithigollewa. Military spokesman irror the Air Force had confirmed that the air raids on LTTE targets d rebel targets. (Daily Mirror on 17 June 2006)
ft behind by the LTTE, were found by the Navy late June 17 evening, Navy continues with its rescue operations, looking for eight missing Navy and Air Force gunships had detected three LTTE attack boats, r sea drama, being taken towards Vedithalathivu area, soon after the ) rrogation for their alleged links with the LTTE hit squad apprehended e navy intercepted their boat off Pamunugama as they were on their f frogmen tasked with targeting navy vessels. The suspects are now in tion Department (CID) tasked with investigating the plot, which if had
phic impact on the country. (The Island on 19 June 2006) e critical questions put forward by Norway to both the Government f the SLMM with the deadline for the reply set to expire today. (Daily
ajor strike on troops guarding the Somawathi Chaitya in Polonnaruwa e came under attack when Tigers attacked security forces personnel aily Mirror on 21 June 2006)

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• LTTE on June 20 reaffirmed its commitment to a truce desp ceasefire monitors from Denmark, Finland and Sweden was st on 21 June 2006)
• The Government on June 21 admitted in parliament that helic the NGOs in the aftermath of the tsunami could be a thre Minister Jagath Pushpakumara in response to a question raise on 22 June 2006)
• Acting on local and international reports, President Mahind committee to probe charges relating to June 17 attack on a President Rajapaksa took the decision after meeting of the N wanted an immediate report mainly on a complaint by Mann Navy personnel were responsible for the attack on the churc 47 injured. (21 June 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 23 June 2006)
• Secretary General of the Government Peace Secretariat D rejection of peace monitors from EU countries was a mere ey in the Oslo talks. (Daily News on 24 June 2006)
• The government rejects the rationale behind the LTTE’s dem EU countries. It agrees with the observation made by the No Erik Solheim quoted in the Royal Norwegian Government (R demand that SLMM monitors from EU countries be replaced i in a critical period”. (Daily Mirror on 24 June 2006)
• Less than 24 hours after LTTE Peace Secretariat head S.Pulithe to talk peace with the government, Defence spokesman Rambukwella accused the LTTE of looking for flimsy excuses June 2006)
• Confirming reports that some government security forces payroll, the Military Police arrested a soldier, serving in the Fo for alleged links to the LTTE. (Daily Mirror on 26 June 2006)
• The Government says it will oppose any moves to re-appoin further raised suspicions over the actual motives behind th monitors from EU member countries. (Daily Mirror on 26 June
• The military on Friday (June 21) accused the LTTE of trigger part of their strategy to discredit the government. The rec Pesalai was part of their line of attack, a senior navy official sai
• Deputy Chief of Staff of the Sri Lanka Army Major General Pa an LTTE suicide bomb attack at Pannipitiya on June 26. He wa 8.00 a.m. (26 June 2006)- (The Island on 27 June 2006)
• The assassination of Major General Parami Kulatunge, the D another example of the LTTE's continued commitment to te deserving of contempt and condemnation, President Mahind LTTE's assassination carried out last morning. (Daily News on
• Around ten Sea Tigers and five Naval personnel were repo Tigers launched an attack on a fleet of Navy boats yesterday on 29 June 2006)
• New Delhi-IANS-The Indian government on June 27 said fo killing of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi would amount to State for External Affairs Anand Sharma told NDTV in resp comments: ‘The people of India cannot forget the dastar Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam). (27 June 2006)- (The Island o
• The Supreme Court on June 29 issued an interim order restr Commander Daya Sandagiri from functioning as the Deputy Order. (29 June 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 30 June 2006)
• A Tamil party - Akhila Ilankai Tamil United Front (AITUF)- called for the restructuring of the All Party Conference and bashing but instead a gathering of political parties to seek a c Mirror on 30 June 2006)
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mitment to a truce despite a surge in violence, but said the future of nland and Sweden was still in the balance. (20 June 2006)- (Daily Mirror
d in parliament that helicopter parts and some other items imported by tsunami could be a threat to national security. This was disclosed by onse to a question raised by JVP MP Piyasiri Wijenayake. (Daily Mirror
ports, President Mahinda Rajapaksa has appointed a top level military to June 17 attack on a church in Pesalai. The Daily Mirror learns that n after meeting of the National Security Council on June 21 and said he on a complaint by Mannar’s Bishop the Rt. Revd. Rayappu Joseph that the attack on the church in which six civilians were killed and at least rror on 23 June 2006)
ent Peace Secretariat Dr. Palitha Kohona said that the LTTE's overt countries was a mere eyewash in order to keep away from participating June 2006) e behind the LTTE’s demand for the removal of SLMM monitors from rvation made by the Norwegian Minister of International Development rwegian Government (RNG) Media release of June 22 that “the LTTE’s countries be replaced is deeply regrettable and will weaken the SLMM 24 June 2006) Secretariat head S.Pulithevan telling the BBC that the Tigers were ready t, Defence spokesman and Plan Implementation Minister Keheliya oking for flimsy excuses to scuttle the peace process. (The Island on 24
rnment security forces members are believed to be on the LTTE’s soldier, serving in the Forward Defence Line at Kalyanapura in Welioya Mirror on 26 June 2006)
any moves to re-appoint a Norwegian as the head of the SLMM and ctual motives behind the LTTE demanding the removal of cease-fire . (Daily Mirror on 26 June 2006) used the LTTE of triggering clashes near places of religious worship as he government. The recent confrontation triggered by Sea Tigers off , a senior navy official said. (The Island on 26 June 2006)
Army Major General Parami Kulatunga and three others were killed in ipitiya on June 26. He was on his way to Army Headquarters at around on 27 June 2006) Parami Kulatunge, the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Sri Lanka Army, is inued commitment to terrorism and its cowardly use of suicide killers, nation, President Mahinda Rajapaksa said in a special message on the
orning. (Daily News on 27 June 2006) val personnel were reportedly killed and two boats destroyed, when of Navy boats yesterday off Kalpitiya, Navy sources said. (Daily Mirror
ment on June 27 said forgiving Sri Lanka’s Tamil Tigers for the 1991 Gandhi would amount to endorsing their ideology of terror. Minister of rma told NDTV in response to Tiger ideologue Anton Balasingham’s nnot forget the dastardly crime that was committed by the LTTE 7 June 2006)- (The Island on 29 June 2006)
d an interim order restraining former Chief of Defence Staff and Navy ctioning as the Deputy Secretary to the Ministry of Defence, Law and on 30 June 2006) United Front (AITUF)- in a letter to President Mahinda Rajapaksa has ll Party Conference and said the APC should not be a forum for LTTE litical parties to seek a consensus on solving the ethnic conflict. (Daily

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• The UNICEF on June 31 urged the LTTE to free 1,358 child met the Tamil Tiger rebels and asked them to stop recruitin those already enlisted. (31 June 2006)- (Daily Mirror on 01 July
• Public servants who did not report to work on June 28, th deemed to have vacated their posts, according to a presidentia
• The Tigers hit back today at claims by UNICEF that more saying its reports are grossly exaggerated. (Daily Mirror on 03
• The government expects the international community to pr military purposes. Peace Secretariat Chief Dr. Palitha Kohon ongoing LTTE efforts to train civilians in armed combat as pa units. (02 July 2006) - (The Island on 03 July 2006)
• Truce monitors from European Union (EU) member states the country by September 1, a top Tamil Tiger rebel lea Scandinavian monitors from the three states cannot be consid its list of banned terrorist groups in May, Tiger political wing on 04 July 2006)
• Dozens of Tamil villagers have fled their homes in areas cont order that they must get combat training. ''If we are traine Nabarasa, 28, who fled with his wife to this government-held would not give his full name, fearing retribution by the rebels. (
• With the LTTE continuing to boycott the second round of Ge week submit a set of proposals to the parties that took part in the ethnic conflict. (Daily Mirror on 05 July 2006)
• President Mahinda Rajapakse has said he wants the Liberatio participate in the efforts to evolve a lasting peaceful solution t interview to Indian television news channel NDTV broadcast draft proposals for discussion with the Tigers. The Tigers s come up with their own suggestions and amendments. Th acceptable to all communities inhabiting the island. (04 July 200
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa directed the Heads of the Arme Rights Commission of Sri Lanka to ‘exercise and perform fundamental rights of persons arrested or detained are respec
• There is no military solution to Sri Lanka's separatist conflic said, as daily bloodshed has raised fears of renewed war. Lun years, also said in a statement released July 5 that a solution to changes in the way the entire nation is governed”. (The Island o
• The LTTE said on July 9 that the Tamil people would not ac autonomy, even as President Mahinda Rajapaksa prepared to committee tomorrow, to discuss the framework for a solutio interview with New Delhi Television (NDTV), said that, whil could be taken into account, it could not form the basis for th Mirror on 10 July 2006)
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa in a significant step towards findi today expected to request political party representatives and formulate proposals under a broad legal and Constitutiona (Daily Mirror on 11 July 2006)
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TTE to free 1,358 child soldiers in its captivity.The agency said it had d them to stop recruiting underage fighters and immediately release )- (Daily Mirror on 01 July 2006)
to work on June 28, the day of the Trincomalee Hartal have been ccording to a presidential directive. (Daily Mirror on 01 July 2006) by UNICEF that more than 1000 children are enlisted as soldiers, ated. (Daily Mirror on 03 July 2006) ational community to pressure the Tigers against using civilians for Chief Dr. Palitha Kohona on July 2 expressed serious concern over s in armed combat as part of their efforts to strengthen their fighting 03 July 2006)
n (EU) member states -- Denmark, Finland and Sweden must leave p Tamil Tiger rebel leader told AFP today. Some 37 out of 57 e states cannot be considered neutral, after the EU put the Tigers on May, Tiger political wing leader S. P. Thamilselvan said. (Daily Mirror
eir homes in areas controlled by the LTTE to escape the insurgents' aining. ''If we are trained to fight, then we may have to fight,'' said to this government-held village near the town of Batticaloa. Nabarasa etribution by the rebels. (Daily Mirror on 04 July 2006)
the second round of Geneva talks the Government said it would this parties that took part in the All Party Conference in a bid to resolve 05 July 2006)
d he wants the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to actively lasting peaceful solution to the island’s festering ethnic problem. In an annel NDTV broadcast on July 4, he said he wants to submit a set of the Tigers. The Tigers should consider them, respond to them and s and amendments. The idea is to evolve a solution that will be ing the island. (04 July 2006) - (The Island on 05 July 2006) d the Heads of the Armed Forces and the Police to help the Human ‘exercise and perform its duties and functions by ensuring the d or detained are respected’. (Daily Mirror on 05 July 2006)\ Lanka's separatist conflict, outgoing US Ambassador Jeffrey Lunstead ars of renewed war. Lunstead, who is leaving the country after three d July 5 that a solution to Sri Lanka's civil strife would require “radical s governed”. (The Island on 06 July 2006) mil people would not accept a political solution that fell short of full a Rajapaksa prepared to sit down with an all party and government framework for a solution. LTTE political head S.P. Thamilselvan, in an (NDTV), said that, while ideas from international devolution models not form the basis for the solution to the conflict in Sri Lanka. (Daily
ificant step towards finding a political solution to the ethnic conflict is arty representatives and a panel of constitutional and legal experts to legal and Constitutional framework within an undivided Sri Lanka.

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F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTE
23RD J
ULY
2006
The following are the significant trends observed in the PC to note that this particular wave of the PCI only covers the Tamil communities in the areas outside North and East. F of the Tamil community in the sample, this report does estimations.
♦ When asked to rate five national issues according to
economy (29.5%) and the peace process (29.4%) was community. The Up-Country Tamil (Peace process- 3 Muslim (Peace process- 34.8%, Economy- 30.8%) comm peace process followed by the economy. However, whe May 2006, those who consider the economy (May- 2 process (May- 27.1%, July- 29.4%) as the most impo community has slightly increased. Amongst the Up-Coun consider the peace process (May- 29.3%, July- 31.3%) a significantly increased. Amongst the Muslim communi economy (May- 28.1%, July- 30.8%) and the peace pro the most important issue have increased. (Ref. Page 14)
♦ At a moment when Sri Lanka is experiencing a ‘no war, the Sinhala (80.8%), Up-Country Tamil (98.5%) and Mu this situation is bad and therefore, support the idea o through negotiations. When compared to the PCI fi support a negotiated peace settlement amongst the Sin July 2006 (May- 75%, July- 80.8%). Nevertheless this is finding of February 2006 (95%). With regard to the Up- who support a negotiated peace settlement have signif (May- 78.1%, July- 98.5%). Interestingly, those who supp amongst the Muslim community has witnessed a decre July- 85.2%). (Ref. Page 15)
♦ When asked about the Government’s commitment to
Sinhala (68%) and Muslim (45.9%) communities agree th to find peace through talks. Amongst the Up-Country T disagree and 42.6% don’t know or not sure. When com 2006, the agreement (May- 73.2%, July- 68%) amon decreased while the disagreement (May- 10.9%, July- 15 Up-Country Tamil community, the disagreement (May- Amongst the Muslim community, the agreement (May- while the disagreement (May- 24.1%, July- 32.8%) has among all three communities the percentages who belie has dropped consistently over the last six months. (Ref. P
♦ A majority of Sinhala (49.2%) and Muslim (62.3%
Government is capable of finding peace through talks. community, 34.4% agree, 21.3% disagree and 44.3% compared to the PCI findings of May 2006, the agreeme Muslim Communities (Sinhala: May- 55.7%, July- 49.2%; M

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HE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
14TH J
ULY
2006
TO 23RD J
ULY
2006
ends observed in the PCI July 2006 survey. It is important f the PCI only covers the Sinhala, Muslim and Up-Country tside North and East. Further, due to the total exclusion ample, this report does not intend to present national
onal issues according to their order of importance, the ce process (29.4%) was rated the highest by the Sinhala Tamil (Peace process- 31.3%, Economy- 24.7%) and the , Economy- 30.8%) communities give high priority to the conomy. However, when compared to the PCI findings of r the economy (May- 27.9%, July- 29.5%) and the peace .4%) as the most important issue amongst the Sinhala d. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, those who ay- 29.3%, July- 31.3%) as the most important issue have t the Muslim community too, those who consider the .8%) and the peace process (May- 24.8%, July- 34.8%) as ncreased. (Ref. Page 14)
experiencing a ‘no war, no peace’ situation, a majority of y Tamil (98.5%) and Muslim (85.2%) communities believe fore, support the idea of a permanent peace settlement ompared to the PCI findings of May 2006, those who tlement amongst the Sinhala community has increased in %). Nevertheless this is still a decrease compared to PCI . With regard to the Up-Country Tamil community, those ce settlement have significantly increased since May 2006 estingly, those who support a negotiated peace settlement y has witnessed a decrease since May 2006 (May- 96.6%,
ment’s commitment to the peace process, a majority of %) communities agree that the Government is committed ongst the Up-Country Tamil community 39.3% agree, 18% or not sure. When compared to the PCI findings of May 3.2%, July- 68%) amongst the Sinhala community has ent (May- 10.9%, July- 15.3%) has increased. Amongst the the disagreement (May- 38.1%, July- 18%) has decreased. y, the agreement (May- 58.6%, July- 45.9%) has decreased 24.1%, July- 32.8%) has increased. It is noteworthy that e percentages who believe the government is committed he last six months. (Ref. Page 16)
%) and Muslim (62.3%) communities agree that the ing peace through talks. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil % disagree and 44.3% don’t know or not sure. When f May 2006, the agreement levels amongst the Sinhala and
ay- 55.7%, July- 49.2%; Muslim May- 72.4%, July- 62.3%)

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have decreased while the disagreement levels have inc 25.3%; Muslim: May- 13.8%, July- 18%). Amongst the U agreement (May- 30.6%, July- 34.4%) has slightly increas 43.5%, July- 21.3%) has significantly decreased. (Ref. Page
♦ When asked about the LTTE’s commitment to the p Sinhala (74.2%) community disagree that the LTTE is c talks. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 42 44.3% don’t know or not sure. Amongst the Muslim disagree while 37.3% don’t know or not sure. When com 2006, amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, the a and the disagreement (May- 30.6%, July- 13.1%) hav Muslim community, the agreement (May- 15.8%, July- disagreement (May- 45.6%, July- 35.6%) has decreased. (R
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (45.5%) community disagree t peace through talks. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil disagree while 45.9% don’t know or not sure. A majorit (48.3%) that the LTTE is capable of finding peace throu PCI findings of May 2006, the agreement (May- 17.6% community has increased while the disagreement (May- Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, the agreem disagreement (May- 34.4%, July- 19.7%) have both d Muslim community too, the agreement (May- 53.6%, Ju (May- 25%, July- 21.7%) have decreased. (Ref. Page 19)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (57.3%), Up-Country Tam communities state, that when compared to the situation the country at present is ‘not close at all’ in approachin ethnic conflict. In comparison with the PCI finding of M the country is ‘not close at all’ in approaching a per conflict, have significantly increased amongst all the thr Sinhala: May-43.4%, July- 57.3%/ Up-Country Tamil: May 40.7%, July- 77.4%). (Ref. Page 20)
♦ When asked who should be involved in negotiations,
community state that only the Government and th negotiations. However, a majority of the Up-Country (54.1%) communities state that the Government, Opp parties and an international third party should be involve
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (76.7%), Up-Country Tam
communities believe that it is ‘likely’ a war will resume. of May 2006, this is an increase of opinion amongst the Up-Country Tamil (May- 61%, July- 63.1%) and Mu communities.(Ref. Page 22)
♦ Of those who are aware of the CFA, a majority of the that the CFA has not benefited the ordinary citizen. It i the PCI findings of May 2006, where a majority of the Sin

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reement levels have increased (Sinhala: May- 17.1%, July- y- 18%). Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, the 4.4%) has slightly increased while the disagreement (May-
tly decreased. (Ref. Page 17)
s commitment to the peace process, a majority of the agree that the LTTE is committed to find peace through ry Tamil community, 42.6% agree, 13.1% disagree while e. Amongst the Muslim community, 27.1% agree, 35.6% w or not sure. When compared to the PCI findings of May Tamil community, the agreement (May- 50%, July- 42.6%) 30.6%, July- 13.1%) have both decreased. Amongst the ent (May- 15.8%, July- 27.1%) has increased while the 35.6%) has decreased. (Ref. Page 18)
) community disagree that the LTTE is capable of finding the Up-Country Tamil community 34.4% agree, 19.7% w or not sure. A majority of the Muslim community agree le of finding peace through talks. When compared to the agreement (May- 17.6%, July- 26%) amongst the Sinhala the disagreement (May- 49%, July- 45.5%) has decreased. l community, the agreement (May- 42.6%, July- 34.4%) and ly- 19.7%) have both decreased. Similarly amongst the reement (May- 53.6%, July- 48.3%) and the disagreement creased. (Ref. Page 19)
7.3%), Up-Country Tamil (73.4%) and Muslim (77.4%) ompared to the situation of the peace process a year ago, lose at all’ in approaching a permanent settlement to the ith the PCI finding of May 2006, those who believe that ll’ in approaching a permanent settlement to the ethnic ased amongst all the three communities (Not close at all: Up-Country Tamil: May- 51.7%, July- 73.4%/ Muslim: May- 20)
volved in negotiations, a majority of the Sinhala (36.6%) he Government and the LTTE should be involved in rity of the Up-Country Tamil (39.3%) and the Muslim t the Government, Opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Muslim d party should be involved in negotiations. (Ref. Page 21)
6.7%), Up-Country Tamil (63.1%) and Muslim (85.5%) likely’ a war will resume. When compared to PCI findings of opinion amongst the Sinhala (May- 70.1%, July- 76.7%), , July- 63.1%) and Muslim (May- 79.7%, July- 85.5%)
CFA, a majority of the Sinhala (48.6%) community think the ordinary citizen. It is noteworthy this is a reversal of here a majority of the Sinhala (45.8%) community stated

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that the CFA has benefited the ordinary citizen. A m (79.3%) and Muslim (85.4%) communities continue to b the ordinary citizen. (Ref. Page 23)
♦ Of those who think that the CFA has benefited the o Sinhala (64%) community think the ending of killing in t benefit of the CFA. A majority of the Up-Country T communities think freedom of movement is the most im Page 24)
♦ Of those who think that the CFA has not been of any majority of the Sinhala (55.5%) community think the Government controlled areas is the main reason. (Ref. Pa
♦ When asked about their satisfaction in Governmen majority of Sinhala (43.8%) and Muslim (53.7%) commun regard to the Up-Country Tamil community, 48.1% are are not satisfied at all. (Ref. Page 26)
♦ When asked about their satisfaction in LTTE’s commi Sinhala (63.2%) community is not satisfied at all. A m (42.9%) and the Muslim (39.5%) communities are not sat
♦ Of those who are aware of the involvement of foreig
(48.3%), Up-Country Tamil (95.7%) and Muslim (88.2 essential to have a monitoring mission for the CFA t percentage of the Sinhala community who believe tha essential is lower compared to the Up-Country Tamil compared to the last two PCI waves in 2006, those who Sinhala community (February- 69.3%, May- 53.3%, Jul those who think ‘it is not essential’ (February- 22.2% increased. The level of support for the SLMM in the communities continue to be high. (Ref. Page 28)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (55.9%) community disagree w
is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement (56.5%) and Muslim (55.9%) communities agree with impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreemen findings of May 2006, the agreement levels amongst th have decreased (May- 72.2%, July- 56.5%) while the community have increased (May- 50%, July- 55.9%). (Ref.
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (50.6%) community disagree w
is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement. (52.2%) and Muslim (54.3%) communities agree with effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreemen findings of May 2006, the disagreement amongst the U significantly decreased (May- 30%, July- 4.3%). (Ref. Page
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (37.7%), Up-Country Ta communities believe that an international third party is impact on the peace process. The Sinhala community wh

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e ordinary citizen. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil mmunities continue to believe that the CFA has benefited
23)
FA has benefited the ordinary citizen, a majority of the the ending of killing in the country is the most important y of the Up-Country Tamil (94.5%) and Muslim (89.2%) movement is the most important benefit of the CFA. (Ref.
FA has not been of any benefit to the ordinary citizen, a ) community think the LTTE strengthening itself in the
the main reason. (Ref. Page 25)
sfaction in Government’s commitment to the CFA, a Muslim (53.7%) communities are somewhat satisfied. With il community, 48.1% are not satisfied while another 40.7% e 26)
action in LTTE’s commitment to the CFA, a majority of not satisfied at all. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil
communities are not satisfied. (Ref. Page 27)
e involvement of foreign monitors, a majority of Sinhala 5.7%) and Muslim (88.2%) communities think that it is mission for the CFA to succeed. It is noteworthy that munity who believe that an international third party is the Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities. When aves in 2006, those who think ‘it is essential’ amongst the 69.3%, May- 53.3%, July- 48.3%) have decreased, while ential’ (February- 22.2%, May- 32.9%, July- 39.7%) have rt for the SLMM in the Up-Country Tamil and Muslim h. (Ref. Page 28)
) community disagree with the statement that the SLMM the ceasefire agreement. A majority of Up-Country Tamil ommunities agree with the statement that the SLMM is the ceasefire agreement. When compared to the PCI ement levels amongst the Up-Country Tamil community July- 56.5%) while the agreement amongst the Muslim - 50%, July- 55.9%). (Ref. Page 29)
) community disagree with the statement that the SLMM the ceasefire agreement. A majority of Up-Country Tamil ommunities agree with the statement that the SLMM is the ceasefire agreement. When compared to the PCI reement amongst the Up-Country Tamil community has %, July- 4.3%). (Ref. Page 30)
37.7%), Up-Country Tamil (73.8%) and Muslim (77%) ternational third party is essential and will have a positive he Sinhala community who believe that an international

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third party is essential and will have a positive impac compared to the Up-Country Tamil and Muslim commu
♦ When asked about the level of satisfaction with the majority of Sinhala (46.9%) community are not satisfi Country Tamil (47.6%) and Muslim (48.4%) communit Page 32)
♦ When asked if they approve or disapprove of Norway
process, 42.8% of the Sinhala community disapproves wh the Up-Country Tamil (59.4%) and Muslim (60.7%) comm
♦ Asked as to the most suitable country to play the role o 26.7% of the Sinhala community says India is the most su facilitator to the peace process. 21.2% of the Sinhala com suitable country to play the role of facilitator to the pe the Sinhala community has no opinion in this regard. A m (40.6%) community thinks India is the most suitable cou A majority of the Muslim (38.9%) community thinks No to play the role of facilitator. (Ref. Page 34)
♦ When asked about the need for India’s involvement in the Sinhala (52.5%), Up-Country Tamil (82.9%) and M that it will have a positive impact on the peace proce findings of May 2006, the Sinhala (May- 48.8%, July- 52.5 58%) opinion has increased while the Up-Country T opinion have decreased. (Ref. Page 35)
♦ When asked as to who is responsible for the present v (56.2%) community thinks that the ‘LTTE only’ is respo 13.7% of the Sinhala community thinks the LTTE and th while 7.1% thinks the LTTE and the Karuna faction is r Country Tamil (69.5%) don’t know or not sure. Never Tamil community thinks the Security forces are respo the LTTE, Security forces, Karuna faction and other pa Although 50% of the Muslim community don’t know o and the Security forces are responsible while 17.2% responsible. (Ref. Page 36)
♦ Of those who are aware of the LTTE’s breakaway Karu Country Tamil (75%) and Muslim (69.2%) communities disarmed. The Sinhala community has a mixed opinion in 36.2%, should not be disarmed- 38.9%, don’t know/not s
♦ The respondents were asked whether they believe t
involvement of security forces with the Karuna group. A Muslim Community, 54.1% and 62.5% claim that they d media reports are true. By contrast, a majority in community believes that the Sri Lankan armed forces ar group. (Ref. Page 38)
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ll have a positive impact on the peace process is lower
amil and Muslim communities. (Ref. Page 31)
of satisfaction with the Norwegian role as facilitator, a mmunity are not satisfied at all. A majority of the Up- uslim (48.4%) communities are somewhat satisfied. (Ref.
r disapprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace mmunity disapproves while 14.6% approves. A majority of and Muslim (60.7%) communities approve. (Ref. Page 33)
ountry to play the role of facilitator to the peace process, says India is the most suitable country to play the role of . 21.2% of the Sinhala community says Norway is the most le of facilitator to the peace process. However, 41.1% of pinion in this regard. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil is the most suitable country to play the role of facilitator. %) community thinks Norway is the most suitable country
ef. Page 34)
r India’s involvement in the peace process, a majority of ry Tamil (82.9%) and Muslim (58%) communities believe act on the peace process. When compared to the PCI la (May- 48.8%, July- 52.5%) and Muslim (May- 55.9%, July- hile the Up-Country Tamil (May- 84.6%, July- 82.9%) age 35)
onsible for the present violence, a majority of the Sinhala the ‘LTTE only’ is responsible for the violence. However, y thinks the LTTE and the Security forces are responsible the Karuna faction is responsible. A majority of the Up- now or not sure. Nevertheless, 10.2% of the Up-Country ecurity forces are responsible while another 10.2% think na faction and other paramilitary groups are responsible. mmunity don’t know or not sure, 20.7% think the LTTE responsible while 17.2% think the security forces are
LTTE’s breakaway Karuna faction, a majority of the Up- lim (69.2%) communities think that the group should be ity has a mixed opinion in this regard (should be disarmed-
38.9%, don’t know/not sure- 24.9%). (Ref. Page 37)
whether they believe the media reports regarding the with the Karuna group. A majority in both the Sinhala and 62.5% claim that they don’t know or are not sure if the contrast, a majority in the Up-Country Tamil (56.0%) i Lankan armed forces are involved in assisting the Karuna

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♦ When asked whether they approve or disapprove of
Karuna group, a majority of the Sinhala (43.7%) and communities disapprove. In the Muslim community 37.5 or are not sure. (Ref. Page 39)
♦ With regard to its impact on achieving peace, 13.3% of
it will have a positive impact while 33.1% think it will h 46.9% of the Sinhala community don’t know or not sur Tamil (84%) and Muslim (50%) communities think that achieving peace. (Ref. Page 40)
♦ With regard to the recent reports on children being ab a majority of the Sinhala (84.6%) and Muslim (46.3%) co responsible for these abductions. A majority of the Up- don’t know or not sure. Nevertheless, amongst the U think the LTTE is responsible while 16% think other pa (Ref. Page 41)
♦ When people were asked whether they approve or d SLMM monitors who happen to be from the EU membe (52%) and the Muslim (46.8%)communities don’t know o the Sinhala community disapproves while 6% approves. community, 77.7% approves while 29.2% disapproves. 17.7% approves while 35.5% disapproves. (Ref. Page 42)
♦ Asked about the impact of the removal of the EU moni
Muslim community thinks that it will have a negative im not sure. In the Sinhala community, 34.3% say that it 52.5% don’t know or not sure. Amongst the Up-coun that it will have a negative impact while 48.4% don’t kno
♦ At a seminar in Colombo on public sector salary anom trade unions warned that the public sector would be fo action since President Mahinda Rajapaksa had failed to were asked whether they believe the JVP claim that the failed to fulfill his election pledges. In response, 42.1% o while 31.3% agree. The Up-Country Tamil communit 44.6%, Disagree- 44.6%). Amongst the Muslim commu know or is not sure, while 37.1% agree, and 22.6% disag
♦ People were also asked if they approve or disapprove
vowed to launch against the President’s failed election (51.7%) and the Up-Country Tamil (57.1%) communiti Muslim (59.1%) community approves.(Ref. Page 45)
♦ At a special convention held at the Town Hall ground 2006, the JVP leader Somawansa Amarasinghe stated th shifted to military attacks when defeating terrorism. W or disapprove of this statement, a majority of all the th (Disapprove: Sinhala- 44.7%, Up-Country Tamil- 71.9%,
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prove or disapprove of the security forces assisting the the Sinhala (43.7%) and the Up-Country Tamil (73.1%) Muslim community 37.5% approve while 45% don’t know
hieving peace, 13.3% of the Sinhala community thinks that hile 33.1% think it will have a negative impact. However, y don’t know or not sure. A majority of the Up-Country communities think that it will have a negative impact on
rts on children being abducted for recruitment purposes, ) and Muslim (46.3%) communities think that the LTTE is s. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (68%) community rtheless, amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 8% hile 16% think other paramilitary groups are responsible.
ther they approve or disapprove of the removal of the be from the EU member states, a majority of the Sinhala ommunities don’t know or are not sure. However, 42% of oves while 6% approves. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil hile 29.2% disapproves. Amongst the Muslim community, approves. (Ref. Page 42)
removal of the EU monitors, on the ceasefire, 50% of the it will have a negative impact while 41.9% don’t know or unity, 34.3% say that it will have a negative impact while . Amongst the Up-country Tamil community, 28.1% say ct while 48.4% don’t know or not sure. (Ref. Page 43)
ublic sector salary anomalies on July 5th 2006, JVP-backed ublic sector would be forced to resort to a massive strike Rajapaksa had failed to fulfill his election pledges. People ve the JVP claim that the President Mahinda Rajapaksa has es. In response, 42.1% of the Sinhala community disagrees ountry Tamil community has a divided opinion (Agree- ngst the Muslim community, a majority, 40.3% does not % agree, and 22.6% disagree. (Ref. Page 44)
approve or disapprove of the strike action that the JVP esident’s failed election pledges. A majority of the Sinhala amil (57.1%) communities disapprove. A majority of the roves.(Ref. Page 45)
t the Town Hall grounds in Colombo on the 6th of July sa Amarasinghe stated that it is high time the government defeating terrorism. When asked whether they approve t, a majority of all the three communities disapprove of it.
-Country Tamil- 71.9%, Muslim- 62.3%). (Ref. Page 46)

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♦ Of the people who are aware of the UNP’s withdrawal o
a majority of the Sinhala (52.6%) community disapprov the opposition MPs to crossover. A majority of the Muslim (45.5%) communities approve of the governmen to crossover. (Ref. Page 47)
♦ With regard to the speculations on President dissolvin new election, a majority of the Sinhala (40.9%) commun continue as it is. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (3 President should form a national government with the (38.7%) community don’t know or not sure. Non community thinks the President should call for a Government should form a national government with President should continue as it is. (Ref. Page 48)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (53.5%) community reject t forces involvement in human rights abuses against Tami Up-Country Tamil (58.5%) community accept those r (42.6%) community don’t know or not sure. (Ref. Page 4
♦ When asked whether the Government is taking effectiv
who are involved in human rights abuses, 33.3% of t government is taking effective action. While 13.5% thi enough action, 53.1% don’t know or not sure. A ma (64.1%) and Muslim (48.4%) communities think that the action to punish the individuals who are involved in hum
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (69.6%), Up-Country Tam
communities believe that the security condition in the c to the situation a year ago. However, amongst the Up- believe that the security condition has become ‘very bad
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (99.1%), Up-Country Tam
communities believe that the cost of living has increased ago. (Ref. Page 52)
For further information please
Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Ran
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternat
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@d Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://ww

ndex
f the UNP’s withdrawal of its support to the Government, ) community disapprove of the government encouraging ver. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (46.2%) and prove of the government encouraging the opposition MPs
s on President dissolving the parliament and calling for a Sinhala (40.9%) community think that the President should the Up-Country Tamil (38.5%) community thinks that the al government with the UNP. A majority of the Muslim ow or not sure. Nonetheless, 22.6% of the Muslim ent should call for a fresh election, 21% thinks the tional government with the UNP and 17.7% thinks the is. (Ref. Page 48)
5%) community reject the reports of police and armed ghts abuses against Tamil civilians. While a majority of the munity accept those reports, a majority of the Muslim or not sure. (Ref. Page 49)
rnment is taking effective action to punish the individuals ghts abuses, 33.3% of the Sinhala community thinks the action. While 13.5% think the government is not taking now or not sure. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil munities think that the Government is not taking enough who are involved in human rights abuses. (Ref. Page 50)
9.6%), Up-Country Tamil (87.7%) and Muslim (90.2%) curity condition in the country has turned bad compared wever, amongst the Up-Country Tamil community 46.2% on has become ‘very bad’. (Ref. Page 51)
9.1%), Up-Country Tamil (98.5%) and Muslim (96.8%) st of living has increased compared to the situation a year
rther information please contact:
eep Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator entre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
70472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
Page 13

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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Peace Confidence Index (P
May 2001 – July 2006
Important Issues Rating the degree of importance of five national issues.
Ethnic Breakdown
11.6
29.5
0 10 20 30
34. Muslim
13.0 9.7
11
29.4 13.4
%
Changes of Opinion in Sinhala, Up-Cou
communities
27.9 29.5
24.6 24.7
30.8
9.2
16.6
31.3 Up-Country Tamil
18.2 16.7
24.7
Sinhala
100%
90%
10 11 10.7 9.2
12.8
80%
27.1
29.4 29.3 31.3 24.8 70%
60%
50%
14.1
13.4
17.9 18.2
16.9
40% 20.9 30%
16.6
17.5 16.7
17.4
20%
28.1 10%
0%
May '06 July '06 May '06 July '06 May '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil Musl

x
eace Confidence Index (PCI)
May 2001 – July 2006
f five national issues.
Ethnic Breakdown
29.5
34.8
30 40
The Tsunami Recovery
The peace process in Sri Lanka
Conflict betw een different ethnic groups
Law and Order
The Economy
n in Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim
communities
24.7
30.8
31.3 2
24.7
29.4
9.2
12.8 11.6
July '06 May '06 July '06
ntry Tamil Muslim
The Tsunami Recovery
31.3 24.8
34.8
The peace process in Sri Lanka
Conflict betw een different ethnic
18.2
16.9
13.0
groups
Law and Order
The Economy
16.7
17.4 9.7
28.1
30.8
Page 14

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Solutions At the moment Sri Lanka is experiencing a ‘no war, no pe the continuation of this situation is better than pursuing continuation of this situation is bad and, therefore the Gov a permanent solution, either through negotiations or arguments best describes your opinion.
National Breakdown
Muslim
11.5
85.2
3.3
Up-country Tamil
98.5
1.5
4.4
Sinhala
13.0
80.8
1.7
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
%
Changes of Opinion amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tam
100%
3.3
3.7
9
4.4
8.7 7.8 6.6 90%
80%
13.5
13.0
0.4
3.1 6
70%
60%
50%
95
40%
78.1 98.5
75.0
80.8
90.6
84.7
30%
20%
10%
0%
1.4 2.4
1.7
0.4 10.9
2.7
Feb '06 May '06 July '06 Feb '06 May '06 July '06 Feb '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
riencing a ‘no war, no peace’ situation. Some people say that is better than pursuing a final settlement. Others argue that d and, therefore the Government and the LTTE should go for rough negotiations or war. Please tell me which of the inion.
tional Breakdown
80.8
Page 15
No response/ No opinion
85.2
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through
98.5
w ar
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution
80 100 120
ala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities
.8 .1 6.6
6
3.4
11.5
0.9
2.7 3.3
y '06 July '06 Feb '06 May '06 July '06
ntry Tamil Muslim
No response/ No opinion
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should
8.1 98.5
84.7
96.6
85.2
go for a permanent solution through w ar
Continuation of this situation is bad and therefore, the Government and the LTTE should go for a permanent solution through negotiations
Continuation of this situation is better than pursuing a final solution

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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Confidence I think the Government is committed to find peace through
Ethnic Breakdow
21.3
Muslim
32.8
45.9
42.6
Up-country Tamil
18
39.3
16.6
Sinhala
15.3
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala
Muslim communitie
100%
15 15.9 16.6
32.3
80
73.2
68
49.2
39.7 39.3
Feb '06
19
0%
22.2
80%
5.9
10.9
15.3
42.6
18.5 38.1
18
18
60%
40%
62
20%
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
May '06
July '06
Fe '0
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
ted to find peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
32.8
42.6
68
30 40 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know /Not sure 45.9
Disagree
Agree
39.3
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
9.2
39.7 39.3
17.2
21.3
Feb '06
22.2
19.7 2.3
42.6
Don't know /Not sure 18.2 24.1
Disagree
8.5 38.1
32.8
Agree 18
62.1
58.6
45.9
May
July
Feb
May
July '06
'06
'06
'06
'06
Up-Country Tamil Muslim
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Government is fully capable of finding peace thro
Ethnic Breakdown
19.7
Muslim
18
25.5
49.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala
Muslim communitie
65
55.7
49.2
46.8
30.6
44.3
Up-Country Tamil
21.3
34.4
Sinhala
25.3
100%
90%
24.4
27.2
25.5
37.1
19.4
17.1
0%
Feb '06
25.8 80%
44.3 70%
10.6
16.4
60%
50%
25.3
16.1
43.5
40%
21.3
30%
64.2
20%
34.4 10%
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
able of finding peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
49.2
Page 17
62.3
25.3
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
30.6
44.3
3
34.4
25.5
30 40 50 60 70
%
25.8
19.4
13.8
19.7
44.3
May '06
13.8
Don't know /Not sure 16.4
18
Disagree
Agree 43.5
21.3
64.2
72.4
62.3
34.4
July
Feb
May
July '06
'06
'06
'06
Country Tamil Muslim

Page 20
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
1
37.3
Muslim
35.6
24.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
7.3
27.1
13.1
44.3
Up-Country Tamil
42.6
Sinhala
100%
90%
80%
36.6
Feb '06
23.8 24.6
28.6
19.4
44.3
34.8
70%
0%
1.3
1 7.9
30.6 60%
50%
13.1
24.2
40%
56.1 30%
75 74.2
63.5
20%
50
42.6 40.9
10%
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
ind peace through talks.
thnic Breakdown
37.3
35.6
44.3
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
42.6
Agree
74.2
40 50 60 70 80
%
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and uslim communities
19.4
44.3
34.8
38.6 37.3
50
42.6 40.9
15.8
May '06
Don't know /Not sure
30.6
Disagree
13.1
24.2
Agree
45.6
35.6
27.1
July
Feb
May
July '06
'06
'06
'06
ountry Tamil Muslim
Page 18

Page 21
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is fully capable in finding peace through tal
Ethnic Breakdown
26
30
Muslim
21.7
28.5
0 10 20 30 40
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
25.2
17.6
45
Up-Country Tamil
19.7
34.4
Sinhala
45
100%
80%
40.1
33.4
28.5
32.2
23
45.9
Feb '06
32.8
60%
8.5
34.4
19.7
0%
25.4 45.5 40%
34.8 49
59.3
20%
26
42.6
34.4
41.8
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
finding peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
26
30
.7
28.5
30 40 50 60
%
48.3
45.5
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and uslim communities
42.6
34.4
45.9
34.4
23
21.4
30 45.9
May '06
32.8
Don't know /Not sure
25
Disagree 34.4
21.7
Agree
19.7
25.4
41.8
53.6
48.3
July
Feb
May
July '06
'06
'06
'06
ountry Tamil Muslim
Page 19

Page 22
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Compared to the situation of the peace process a year country, at present, in approaching a permanent settlement
Ethnic Breakdown
9.7
Muslim
6.5
11.3
77
6.5
7.8
Up-Country Tamil
12.5
73.4
6.3
11.8
Sinhala
19.6
57.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala
Muslim communiti
100%
22.8
19.6
11.3
Sep '06
7.9
13.3
7.8
13
0%
11.1
15.8
11.8
80%
26.3
39.8
43.4
57.3
51.7
73.4
3
60%
25
40%
26.3
16
21.2
20%
19.6
40.8
23.3
12.5 11.7
6.3
3
May '06
July '06
Sep '06
May '06
July '06
S
'0
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
e peace process a year ago, how close do you think is the
a permanent settlement to the ethnic conflict?
Ethnic Breakdown
57.3
Page 20
77.4
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Not close at all
Remains the same
Close
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
.8
11.7
6.3
73.4
9
13.3
7.8
13.6
18.6
9.7
.3
51.7
73.4
p 6
35
Don't know /Not sure
40.7
Not close at all
77.4
Remains the same
16.5
Close
20.3 23.3
12.5
35
20.3
6.5 6.5
May '06
July '06
Sep '06
May '06
July '06
p-Country Tamil Muslim

Page 23
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If peace is to be found through negotiations, according to y in negotiations?
Ethnic Breakdow
13.1
Muslim
1.6
19.7
3.3
8.2
14.8
14.8 9.5
5.2
13.2
36.6
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
39.3 Up-Country Tamil
1.6
3.3
14.8
4.9
2.2
10
21.3
8.5
Sinhala

x
gotiations, according to your opinion, who should be involved
Ethnic Breakdown
36.6
Page 21
Don't know / Not sure
54.1
No peace talks
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Muslim parties and an international third Govt, party
opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt. Opposition, LTTE , other Tamil parties, and an international third party Govt. Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt. LTTE and International third party only
Govt. and the LTTE only
30 40 50 60
%
39.3

Page 24
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Given the current situation in the country, how likely is it t
Ethnic Breakdown
6.5 4.8 Muslim
3.2
16.5 3
28
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala
Muslim communiti
11.7
25.8
3.9
59
20 9.2 Up-Country Tamil
7.7
43.1 20
Sinhala
48.7
100%
90%
21.5 22.9
16.5
30.8
20.3 20
14
80%
70%
7.7
1
Feb '06 May
'06
3 8.7
2.1
4.9
3.9
12.5
9.2 11
60%
23.9
7.7
6.3
50%
45.6
21.5
0%
48.7
21.9
40%
43.1
38 30%
34.3
26.2 20%
39.1
10%
24.5
28
13.8
20
14
July '06
Feb '06 May
'06
July '06
Feb
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
country, how likely is it that war will resume?
thnic Breakdown
59.7
48.7
Page 22
Don'y know / Not sure
Very unlikely
Somew hat unlikely
43.1
Somew hat likely
Very likely
40 50 60 70
%
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
20.3 20
12.5
9.2
14.9 15.3
11.9
3.4
1.7
6.5 4.8 3.2
7.7
19.4
39.1
20
14.9
Don'y know / Not sure
Very unlikely 25.8
Somew hat unlikely 6.3
35.6
Somew hat likely
21.9
Very likely
43.1
38.8
06 May
'06
59.7 44.1
July '06
Feb '06 May
'06
July '06
p-Country Tamil Muslim

Page 25
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) Some people say that the CFA has brought many benefits that the CFA has not yielded any benefits to them. In you from the CFA or not?
Ethnic Breakdown
4.9
Muslim
9.8
12.2
39.1
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes of opinion of Sinhala, Up-Country
communities
67.3
45.8
39.1
85.4
6.9 Up-Country Tamil
13.8
48.6
79.3
Sinhala
100%
Feb '06
12.2
5.3
0%
10.3
18.4
7.7 6.9
80%
48.6
13.8
1 22.4
26.9
60%
35.8
94.7 40%
79.3
7 65.4
20%
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
May '06
July '06
F
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
s brought many benefits to ordinary citizens while others say benefits to them. In your opinion have Sri Lankans benefited
Ethnic Breakdown
79.3
Page 23
85.4
48.6
60 80 100
Don't know /Not sure
No, they have not benefited
Yes, they have benefited
f Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim
communities
.3 4.8 4.9 4.7
65.4
eb 06
7.7 6.9 7.4
13.8
16.7
7.1
9.8
Don't know /Not sure 26.9
No, they have not benefited
Yes, they have
88.1
85.4
benefited
79.3
75.9
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
May '06
July '06
Up-Country Tamil Muslim

Page 26
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If the answer is "Yes", please tell me three most important
Ethnic Breakdown
1.0 1.7
10.8 Muslim
34.4
4.4
6.2
28.6
61.2
0 20 40 60 80 10
%
89.2
17.4
53.7 37.4
59.2 22.5
54.4
15.0 12.3
Up-Country Tamil
1.7
72.1
64.0
94 8.0
9.7
86.5
Sinhala

x
e three most important benefits of the CFA.
Ethnic Breakdown
61.2
Page 24
89.2
72.1
60 80 100
Benefit to minority communities
Avoid division of the country
Feeling of security
Development
Freedom of movement
Ending of destruction
Ending of killing
Peaceful environment in the country
3.7
4.4
59.2
64.0
94.5
86.5

Page 27
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If you think that the CFA has not been of any benefit to pe reason?
Response of the Sinhala comm
60
55.5
50
40
%
30
9.3
5.6
LTTE strengthening itself in government controlled areas
21.4 20
10
0
While giving leadership to the SLMM, Norw ay becoming partial to the LTTE
Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu districts coming under complete LTTE control
Human
violati including conscrip extortion political k

x
een of any benefit to people, what do you think is the main
of the Sinhala community
5.6
Page 25
21.4
6.5
1.6
ochchi and Mullaitivu tricts coming er complete TTE control
Human rights violations including child conscriptions, extortion, and political killings
SLMM's inability to monitor various armed group retaliations on both parties
LTTE becomes know n as the sole representative of Tamils of north and east

Page 28
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the Government's commitment
Ethnic Breakdown
4.9 2.4 Muslim
7.5
30.2
0 10 20 30 40
%
31.7
3.6
7.3
3.7
40.7 Up-Country Tamil
7.4
Sinhala
14.9
43.8

x
vernment's commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
Ethnic Breakdown
30.2
Page 26
31.7
40.7
30 40 50 60
%
53.7
No opinion
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
48.1
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
43.8

Page 29
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the LTTE’s commitment to the
Ethnic Breakdown
1.5
15.8 10.5 Muslim
39.5 34.2
3.6
32.1 Up-Country Tamil
42.9 17.9 3.6
6.7
Sinhala
25.7 2.9
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

x
TE’s commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
Ethnic Breakdown
34.2
7
39.5
63.2
No opinion
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
32.1
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
0 40 50 60 70
%
42.9
Page 27

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Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission What is your opinion on the need of a monitoring mission?
Ethnic Breakdown
2.9
Muslim
8.8
12.0
48.3
0 20 40 60 80 10
%
Changes of opinion of the Sinhala, Up-Country T
communities
69.3
53.3
48.3
88.2
4.3
Up-Country Tamil
39.7
9
Sinhala
100%
Feb '06
4.3 90%
0%
8.5
13.7
12.0
6.7
9.5 6.7
7
80%
22.2
18.6
70%
32.9
39.7 60%
50%
40%
86.7
90.5
95.7
74.4 30%
20%
10%
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
of a monitoring mission?
Ethnic Breakdown
48.3
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential
Is essential
inhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim ommunities
90.5
88.2
60 80 100 120
%
95.7
9.5
4.3
7 2.6 2.9 18.6
May '06
8.8
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential
Is essential
95.7
97.4
88.2 74.4
July
Feb
May
July '06
'06
'06
'06
Country Tamil Muslim
Page 28

Page 31
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial agreement.
Ethnic Breakdown
14.1
20.6 Muslim
23.5
Up-Country Tamil
4.3
39.1
30.0 Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
Changes in the opinion amongst the Sinhala,
and Muslim communities
100%
25.8
14.3 14.1
Feb '06
5 90%
17.6
27.6 30.0
5
16.7
27.3 80%
11.1
39.1
70%
60%
50%
56.7
4.3 27.3
58.1 55.9
0%
90 40%
72.2 30%
56.5
20%
45.5
10%
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
g Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire
Ethnic Breakdown
56.5
Page 29
3.5
30.0
55.9
55.9
Don't know / Not sure
Disagree
39.1
Agree
30 40 50 60
%
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil uslim communities
16.7
39.1
72.2
56.5
45.5
20.6
May '06
27.3 28.9 11.1
4.3 27.3
Don't know / Not
23.5
sure Disagree 21.1
Agree
50.0
55.9
July '06
Feb '06
May '06
July '06
-Country Tamil Muslim

Page 32
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I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its m
Ethnic Breakdown
17.1 Muslim
28.6
34.3
15.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
Changes in the opinion amongst the Sinhala and Muslim communities
34.9
13.2 15.2
5
Up-Country Tamil
4.3
43.5
52.
Sinhala
50.6
100%
Feb '06
5.3 90%
19.4
5.3
80%
30.7
34.3
20.0
27.3
43.5
70%
30.0 60%
45.7
4.3
27.3
50%
56.1 50.6
0%
89.5 40%
30%
20%
50.0
52.2
48.5
10%
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
May '06
July '06
Feb '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
ission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.
nic Breakdown
52.2
Page 30
8.6
34.3
54.3
50.6
Don't know / Not sure
Disagree
Agree
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil
uslim communities
50.0
43.5
40 50 60
20.0
17.1
43.5
May '06
27.3
29.7
Don't know / Not sure
30.0
28.6
Disagree
4.3
27.3
24.3
Agree
52.2
48.5 45.9
54.3
July '06
Feb '06
May '06
July '06
ountry Tamil Muslim

Page 33
3931
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Foreign Involvement What is your opinion on the need for an internationa negotiations, to solve the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdow
9.8 6.6 Muslim
1.6
4.9
17.2
9.6 6.4
37.7
0 20 40 60 80
%
Is essential and will have a po
52.8
35.8
77
16.9
Up-Country
3.1
Tamils
3.1 3.1
17.7
73.8
11.3
Sinhala
90
80
73.8
76.7
70
64.2
60
56.7
50
40
37.
30
20
10
0
Feb '06 May '06
Is essential and w ill have a positive imp

x
eed for an international third party as a facilitator to the
nflict in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
7.7
Page 31
Don't know /Not sure
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
ial and will have a positive impact
5.8
77.0
60 80 100
%
73.8
73.8 76.7 73.8
77
May '06 July '06
w ill have a positive impact
Sinhala
Up-Country Tamil
37.7
Muslim

Page 34
3932
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The Norwegian government has been officially facilitating p 2001. Please tell me your level of satisfaction with the Norw
Ethnic Breakdown
1.6
17.7
Muslim
16.1
27.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
4 17.7
19.0
Up-country Tamils
15.9
46. 24.3
47 17.5
Sinhala

x
een officially facilitating peace negotiations since November atisfaction with the Norwegian role as facilitator.
thnic Breakdown
4.3
Page 32
48.4
46.9
Don't know /Not sure
Not satisfied at all
47.6
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
27.2
30 40 50 60
%

Page 35
3933
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state if you approve or disapprove of Norway contin
Ethnic Breakdown
8.2
Muslim
13.1
18.0
17.2
Up-country
3.1 Tamils
20.3
17.5
Sinhala
25.1
42.8
14.6
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

x
pprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace process.
Ethnic Breakdown
59.4
Page 33
60.7
42.8
40 50 60 70
%
Refuse to answ er
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve

Page 36
3934
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state the most suitable country that should play process.
Ethnic Breakdown
6.2
24.1 22.2 Muslim
13.0
41. 26.7
0 10 20 30 40
%
38.9 1.9
21.2 4.8
18.8
Up-country Tamils
1.6
40.6
37.5 1.6
Sinhala

x
untry that should play the role of facilitator in the peace
thnic Breakdown
37.5
Page 34
4.1 2
41.1
30 40 50
38.9
No opinion
India
United States of America
Norw ay
Japan
26.7
40.6

Page 37
3935
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What is your opinion of the need for India's involvement in
Ethnic Breakdown
14.5 8.1
Muslim
1.6
17.7
4.8
24.2 10.8 6.8 5.7
33.9
0 20 40 60 80
%
53.2
7.8 3.1 Up-country
3.1 Tamils
3.1 1.6
18.6
81.3
Sinhala

x
for India's involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process?
Ethnic Breakdown
81.3
Page 35
Don't know /Not sure
53.2
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact
Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
60 80 100

Page 38
3936
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Present Violence Who do you think is primarily responsible for the escalatio
Ethnic Breakdown
13.7
50
3.4
10.2
6.3
17.2
Muslim
8.6
20.7
1.7
5.1
10.2
7.1
0 20 40 60 80
%
69.5
Up-Country Tamil
1.7
1.7
0.1
11.1
Sinhala
1.3 1.9 2.3
56.2

x
ponsible for the escalation of violence ?
Ethnic Breakdown
50
56.2
60 80
Don't know /Not sure
Karuna faction only
Security forces only
69.5
Paramilitary groups only
LTTE only
LTTE, the security forces, the Karuna faction and other paramilitary groups LTTE, the security forces and the Karuna faction LTTE and the paramilitary groups
LTTE and the karuna faction
LTTE and the security forces
Page 36

Page 39
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Karuna Group "Some people say Karuna faction should be disarmed while tell me your opinion in this regard.
Ethnic Breakdown
20.5
Muslim
10.3
24.9
36.2
0 20 40 60
%
69.2
25 Up-Country Tamils
38.9
7
Sinhala

x
hould be disarmed while others say they should not". Please .
thnic Breakdown
75
Page 37
69.2
.9
60 80
Don't know / Not sure
No, they should not be disarmed
Yes, they should be disarmed

Page 40
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
There have been some media reports indicating that cert involved with the Karuna group. In your opinion, do you forces are involved in assisting the Karuna group ?
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
17.5
20.0
5
30.6
15.4
%
44.0
Up-Country Tamils
Sinhala
0 10 20 30 40 50

x
orts indicating that certain sections of the armed forces are In your opinion, do you believe that the Sri Lankan armed Karuna group ?
Ethnic Breakdown
56.0
30.6
Page 38
62.5
30 40 50 60 70
%
Don't know /Not sure
No 44.0
Yes
54.1

Page 41
3939
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Do you approve or disapprove of the security forces assist
Ethnic Breakdown
16.3
45
Muslim
37.5
17.5
23.1
Up-Country Tamils
3.8
40
Sinhala
43.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
%

x
the security forces assisting the Karuna group ?
Ethnic Breakdown
45
37.5
40
43.7
40 50 60 70 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
Disapprove
Approve 73.1
Page 39

Page 42
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What impact will this have on achieving peace ?
Ethnic Breakdown
13.3
36.8
Muslim
7.9
50
5.3
16
Up-Country Tamils
46.9
Sinhala
6.7
33.1
0 20 40 60
%

x
ieving peace ?
Ethnic Breakdown
6.8
50
46.9
1
0 60 80 100
%
84
Don't know / Not sure
No impact
A negative impact
A positive impact
Page 40

Page 43
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Recently there have been reports of children being abducte do you think is responsible for this?
Ethnic Breakdown
8
26.8 2.4 Muslim
24.4
46.3
7.3 0.5
0.1
0 20 40 60 8
%
68 Up-Country Tamils
16 8
Sinhala
7.5

x
of children being abducted for recruitment purposes. Who ?
Ethnic Breakdown
84.6
Page 41
Don't know / Not sure
46.3
Other paramilitary groups
68
The LTTE and the Karuna group
The Karuna group
The LTTE
0 60 80 100
%

Page 44
3942
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
LTTE request to remove EU monitors Since the banning of the LTTE by the European Union, the the SLMM monitors from EU countries.
In your opinion, do you approve or disapprove of the remo from the EU countries?
Ethnic Breakdown
6
46.8
Muslim
35.5
17.7
52
42
0 20 40 60 80
%
63.1
Up-Country Tamil
29.2
77.
Sinhala

x
tors he European Union, the LTTE has demanded the removal of tries.
r disapprove of the removal of the monitors in the SLMM
thnic Breakdown
77.7
42
Page 42
46.8
60 80 100
%
Don't know / Nots sure
Disapprove
63.1
Approve
52

Page 45
3943
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Since the banning of the LTTE by the European Union, the the SLMM monitors from EU countries.
What kind of impact will the removal of the monitors in th on the ceasefire?
Ethnic Breakdown
3.2
3.2
0 10 20 30 40
41.9 Muslim
4.8
15.6
Up-Country Tamil
6.3
28.1 1.6
4.8
Sinhala
5.2
34.3
%

x
he European Union, the LTTE has demanded the removal of tries.
val of the monitors in the SLMM from the EU countries have
Ethnic Breakdown
34.3
Page 43
41.9
30 40 50 60
%
50
52.5
Refuse to Answ er
Don't know / Not sure
No impact 48.4
A negative impact
28.1
A positive impact

Page 46
3944
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
JVP and the Government At a seminar in Colombo on public sector salary anomali trade union wing warned that the public sector would be action since it believed President Mahinda Rajapaksa had fai
Do you believe the JVP claim that the President Mahinda R election pledges?
Ethnic Breakdown
31.3
40
Muslim
22.6
26.6
0 10 20 30 40
%
37.1
Up-Country Tamil
10.8
Sinhala
4

x
lic sector salary anomalies on the 5th July 2006, JVP backed public sector would be forced to resort to a massive strike ahinda Rajapaksa had failed to fulfill his election pledges.
the President Mahinda Rajapaksa has failed to fulfill his
thnic Breakdown
31.3
Page 44
40.3
22.6
26.6
30 40 50
%
37.1
42.1
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree 44.6
Agree
44.6

Page 47
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If the answer is "agree", do you approve or disapprove of t to launch against the President's failed election pledges?
Ethnic Breakdown
9.1
Muslim
31.8
10.7
Up-Country Tamil
32.1
13.6
Sinhala
51.7
34.7
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

x
prove or disapprove of the strike action that the JVP vowed iled election pledges?
hnic Breakdown
34.7
Page 45
31.8
40 50 60 70
%
59.1
51.7
Don't know /Not sure
Disapprove
57.1
Approve
32.1

Page 48
3946
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
At a special convention held at the Town Hall grounds in C JVP leader Somawansa Amarasinghe stated that it is high tim attacks when defeating terrorism.
Do you approve or disapprove of this statement?
Ethnic Breakdown
25.4
32.8
Muslim
4.6
26.6
Up-Country Tamil
1.6
29.9
Sinhala
44.7
0 10 20 30 40 50
%

x
Town Hall grounds in Colombo on the 6th of July 2006, the e stated that it is high time the government shifted to military
this statement?
Ethnic Breakdown
.4
Page 46
32.8
0 40 50 60 70 80
%
62.3
29.9
Don't know /Not sure
Disapprove 6.6
Approve 71.9
44.7

Page 49
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The UNP and the Government If you are you aware that on the 7th of July 2006, the UN the Government, on the grounds that the government crossover, do you approve or disapprove of the governm to crossovers?
Ethnic Breakdown
18.2
Muslim
36.9
0 10 20 30 40
%
36.4
10.6
45
15.4
Up-Country Tamil
38.5
46
Sinhala

x
th of July 2006, the UNP decided to withdraw its support to s that the government has encouraged the UNP MPs to approve of the government encouraging the opposition MPs
thnic Breakdown
36.9
Page 47
36.4
30 40 50 60
%
45.5
52.6
Don't Know /Not sure
Disapprove
Approve 38.5
46.2

Page 50
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Speculations on President Dissolving the Parliament There has been speculation that the president will dissolv election. Do you think,
Ethnic Breakdown
6.1
38.7
Muslim
17.7
21
22.6
35.5
40.9 17.6
0 10 20 30 40 5
%
32.3 Up-Country
10.8 Tamil
38.5 18.5
Sinhala

x
ng the Parliament the president will dissolve the parliament and call for a new
Ethnic Breakdown
38.5
40.9
Page 48
38.7
30 40 50
Don't know /Not sure
The President should continue as 32.3
it is
The President should form a national government w ith the UNP or
35.5
The President should call for fresh election

Page 51
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Human Rights Abuses There have been number of reports of police and armed abuses against Tamil civilians. Do you accept or reject thes
Ethnic Breakdown
6.2
42.6
Muslim
26.2
31.1
6.2
40.3
0 10 20 30 40 50
%
35.4
Up-Country Tamil
Sinhala

x
rts of police and armed forces involvement in human rights ou accept or reject these reports?
Ethnic Breakdown
58.5
Page 49
42.6
6.2
31.1
40.3
53.5
30 40 50 60 70
%
Don't know /Not sure
35.4
Reject it
Accept it

Page 52
3950
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Do you think the Government is taking effective action involved in human rights abuses?
Ethnic Breakdown
38.7
Muslim
48.4
12.9
34.4
Up-Country Tamil
1.6
53.1
Sinhala
13.5
33.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 6
%

x
is taking effective action to punish the individuals who are
Ethnic Breakdown
33.3
Page 50
38.7
40 50 60 70
%
48.4
53.1
Don't know / Not sure
No 34.4
Yes 64.1

Page 53
3951
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Current Security Condition Compared to the situation a year ago, do you think the improved or worsened?
Ethnic Breakdown
1.6
11.5 Muslim
4.9
78
3.3
6.2
Up-Country
41.5
46.2
Tamils
1.5
4.6
2.3
19.4 Sinhala
15.5
50.2
11.9 0.8
0 20 40 60 80
%

x
ago, do you think the security situation in the country has
Ethnic Breakdown
50.2
Page 51
78.7
46.2
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
It's turned very bad
It's turned bad 41.5
Remains the same
It has somew hat improved
It has improved a lot

Page 54
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Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Cost of Living Compared to the situation a year ago, do you think th increased or decreased?
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
3.2
1.5
Up-Country Tamil
0.2
Sinhala
0.8
0 20 40 60 80 1
%

x
ar ago, do you think the cost of living in the country has
Ethnic Breakdown
99.1
Page 52
96.8
60 80 100 120 %
Don't Know / Not sure
Decreased
Increased
98.5

Page 55
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in July 2006
DISTRICT TOT Colombo 15 Gampaha 16 Kalutara 84 Kandy 99 Matale 38 Nuwara Eliya 56 Galle 85 Matara 61 Hambantota 43 Kurunegala 12 Puttalam 56 Anuradhapura 60 Polonnaruwa 27 Badulla 62 Monaragala 33 Ratnapura 78 Kegalle 65 NATIONAL 129
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in July 2006
ETHNICITY TOT Sinhala 116 Muslim 65 Up-Country Tamil 62 NATIONAL 129

ex
Annex
ribution in July 2006
TOTAL 154 168 84 99 38 56 85 61 43 121 56 60 27 62 33 78 65 1291
ibution in July 2006
Y TOTAL
1164 65 62 1291
i

Page 56
Copyright © Social Indicator July 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) s in public confidence levels towards the peace process ove be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the February 2004, PCI was conducted bi-monthly, howeve decided to conduct the study quarterly to make the PCI mo
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1800 respondents during each phase of the capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of te undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace pro factors, the ethnic factor, which is the most important and i been accommodated in this model.
The total sample is distributed amongst 17 administrat excluding the North and East provinces due to the escala to the survey. The sample size assigned to each strat population proportions. However, some districts are o heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a distr of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Se primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sam Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected random using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 199 Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensure a m within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a max GND. Within a given GND, the enumerator is advised to s proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand the random selection of households.
In the case of urban areas, the interviewer is instructed t households, thus resulting in the interview-taking place at final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the ho ensuring that each member of the household has an equ PCI sample.
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model do analysis at the same level of precision.

ii ex
nfidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations the peace process over time it is essential that the study al pauses during the study. Hence, from May 2001 to d bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI rly to make the PCI more efficient.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of ring each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to ty within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is ion on the peace process is influenced by a number of e most important and influential, is the sole factor that has
ongst 17 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, ces due to the escalation of violence in the months prior ssigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.
r ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit ons of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of
frame.
work and ensure a maximum dispersion of the sample ed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a merator is advised to select a starting point randomly and ndom walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure .
rviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the erview-taking place at every alternative household. As the is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus household has an equal chance of being selected to the
subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. hat the PCI model does not support the regional level on.

Page 57
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