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PEACE CONFIDEN
 
 

SOLUTIONS
EASTERNELECTIONS
INDIA
THE APRC
LOSING THE UNHRCSEAT
POPULARITY OF THE PRESIDENT
HUMAN RIGHTS
NCE İNDEX
WES
AUGUST 2008

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For further Info Please Conta Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Ranasin
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternative
105, 5
th
Lane Colombo 3 Sri Lanka Tel: +94112370472/4 Fax: +94112370475 Email: rangani@cpasocialindicat Web: www.cpalanka.org/polling

urther Info Please Contact
Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator ntre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5
th
Lane Colombo 3 Sri Lanka Tel: +94112370472/4 Fax: +94112370475 rangani@cpasocialindicator.org ww.cpalanka.org/polling.html

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Copyright © Social Indicator August 2008
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
(PCI) T
OP
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX -L
INE
R
ESULTS
I
MPORTANT ISSUES
S
OLUTIONS
]
C
OMMITMENT AND
C
APACITY
C
URRENT
C
ONDITION
• P
OLITICAL
S
ECURITY
D
EVELOPMENTS
COST OF LIVING
JVP SPLIT
INDIA & OTHER COUNTRIES
EASTERN PROVINCE ELECTIONS
LOSING THE UNHRC SEAT
ALL PARTY REPRESENTATIVE COMMITTEE (APRC)
THE PRESIDENT
HUMAN RIGHTS
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
EV
• A
NNEX

x
01 02 EX
(PCI) 11
11
12 16
ON
20
TS
23
35
37
S 42
47
COMMITTEE (APRC) 49
52
54
I
ERNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
55
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I
NTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a nu confidence in the peace process using a set of standardized q each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to developments in order to gauge public opinion on the peace from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will pro useful barometer of Sri Lankan polity’s opinions, and ensure due importance and incorporated into the policy debate.
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The survey is carried out using a structured questionna interviews amongst a 1300 randomly selected sample. administrative districts, excluding the North and East due weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of surveyed.
This is the twenty ninth wave of the PCI study, which w publication presents only the top-line results of the July 2008
The results of these twenty nine waves offer us data for a opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions o developments. The results are subjected to a 3% margin of er
** This particular wave of the PCI only covers the Si Country Tamil communities in the areas outside th Tamil community and the entire sample in the Easte non-random sampling technique. Therefore, all fin
Province and the Tamil community cannot be genera

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I
NTRODUCTION
d. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public g a set of standardized questions, which remain unchanged with t of questions related to recent social, economic and political lic opinion on the peace process, which by definition will change
period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a y’s opinions, and ensure that such collective opinions are given o the policy debate.
structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face omly selected sample. This survey was conducted in 17 e North and East due to the escalation of violence. Data is graphic composition of the districts in which the sample was
the PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This
results of the July 2008 survey.
aves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public ing from perceptions of war and peace to current political
ted to a 3% margin of error.
CI only covers the Sinhala, Tamil, Muslim and the Up- the areas outside the Northern Province. The entire e sample in the Eastern Province were sampled using a e. Therefore, all findings that refer to the Eastern
nity cannot be generalized to the entire community.
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F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDU
7TH A
UGUST
2008
The following are the significant trends observed in the PCI wave of the PCI only covers the Sinhala, Tamil, Muslim and th the areas outside the Northern Province. The entire Tamil c the Eastern Province were sampled using a non-random findings that refer to the Eastern Province and the Tamil com entire community.
♦ War and Peace: When asked to rate five national is placed on each issue, all the communities prioritise the e Lanka. The Sinhala community places importance on the conflict in the north east (27.0%). However, 19.9% of importance on a future peace process in Sri Lanka. The on the economy (25.5%) and a future peace process in Tamil community places importance on a future peace p economy (23.4%). The Muslim community places importa peace process in Sri Lanka (24.2%). (Ref. Page 11)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (50.9%), think that
is the way to end the war and arrive at peace in Sri La community think that political negotiations after the gov way to find peace in Sri Lanka. A majority of the Tamil c Tamil (76.4%) and the Muslim (77.5%) communities thin conduct political negotiations if peace is to be foun community also thinks that conducting peace talks while h way to peace. When compared to the PCI findings of community, those who think that there should be politica defeats the LTTE has increased (March ’08: 14.6%, Augus the Tamil (March ’08:6.4%, August ’08: 13.1%) and the M 8.8%) communities, those who think that peace talks military operations has also increased. (Ref. Page 12)
♦ When asked about the necessity of a political solution to
a majority of the minority communities (Tamil: 72.4%, 59.3%) think that irrespective of how the war ends, a pol the Sinhala community has a mixed opinion. While 31.4% 35.7% think that it is useful. When compared to the PCI think that a political solution is essential have slightly incre (March ’08: 69.8%, August ’08: 72.4%) while amongst the who think that a political solution is essential (March ’08: (March ’08: 11.5%, August ’08: 25.3%) have significant community, those who think that a political solution is es (March ’08: 71.2%, August ’08: 59.3%) while those wh (March ’08: 11.1%, August ’08: 21.7%).(Ref. Page 13)
♦ A majority of the minority communities believe that a p while the war continues (Tamil: 56.6%, Up-Country Tamil

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F THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
31ST J
UNE TO 7 A
UGUST
2008
ds observed in the PCI August 2008 survey. This particular ala, Tamil, Muslim and the Up-Country Tamil communities in vince. The entire Tamil community and the entire sample in d using a non-random sampling technique. Therefore, all vince and the Tamil community cannot be generalized to the
to rate five national issues depending on the importance munities prioritise the economy and a peace process in Sri laces importance on the country’s economy (27.8%) and the %). However, 19.9% of the Sinhala community also places ocess in Sri Lanka. The Tamil community places importance future peace process in Sri Lanka (26.5%). The Up-Country nce on a future peace process in Sri Lanka (25.9%) and the ommunity places importance on the economy (33.7%) and a
). (Ref. Page 11)
nity (50.9%), think that the government defeating the LTTE arrive at peace in Sri Lanka. However, 23.8% of the Sinhala gotiations after the government’s defeat of the LTTE is the majority of the Tamil community (78.7%), the Up-Country 7.5%) communities think that we should stop the war and if peace is to be found. However, 13.1% of the Tamil ucting peace talks while having military operations could be a to the PCI findings of March 2008, amongst the Sinhala t there should be political negotiations after the government March ’08: 14.6%, August ’08: 23.6%). Interestingly, amongst st ’08: 13.1%) and the Muslim (March ’08:4.6%, August ’08: think that peace talks should be conducted while having ased. (Ref. Page 12)
of a political solution to resolve the present ethnic conflict, munities (Tamil: 72.4%, UP-Country Tamil: 40.9%, Muslim: how the war ends, a political solution is essential. However, ed opinion. While 31.4% think a political solution is essential, en compared to the PCI findings in March 2008, those who ssential have slightly increased amongst the Tamil community .4%) while amongst the Up-Country Tamil community those is essential (March ’08: 30.1%, August ’08: 40.9%) and useful 25.3%) have significantly increased. Amongst the Muslim t a political solution is essential have considerably decreased 59.3%) while those who think it is useful have increased .7%).(Ref. Page 13)
munities believe that a political solution should be designed 6.6%, Up-Country Tamil: 68.2%, Muslim: 48.4%). However,
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amongst the Sinhala community, 39.5% believe that a p after the war. Nevertheless, another 23% of the Sinha solution should be designed while the war continues. Wh March ’08, those who think that a political solution continues have increased amongst the Tamil commun 56.6%) while it has significantly increased amongst the Up ’08: 24.7%, August ’08: 68.2%). Amongst the Sinhala com solution should be designed after the war has slightly incr 39.5%). (Ref. Page 14)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (69.6%) think that c
is close to approaching a permanent settlement to the eth (64.8%) and the Up-Country Tamil (62.6%) communities to a permanent settlement to the ethnic conflict. Amo think that the country is not close at all for a permane close. When compared to the PCI findings of March 200 those who think the country is close to a permanent se 60.7%, August ’08: 69.6%). Amongst the Tamil community same has increased (March ’08: 16.5%, August ’08: 23.8%) close at all have decreased (March ’08: 74.2%, August community, those who think it is close (March ’08: 19.7 while those who think it is not close at all (March ’0 decreased. (Ref. Page 15)
♦ Commitment: A majority of the Sinhala community ( (47.1%) agree that the government is committed to find the Tamil community (61.7%) disagree in this regard w Tamil community (50.5%) don’t know or are not sure. W March ’08, the agreement amongst the Sinhala communi August ’08:58.1%) while the disagreement amongst the T 61.7%), Up-Country Tamil (March ’08: 44.5%, Aug communities (March ’08: 39.6%, August ’08: 26.7%) has sig
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (74.9%) and the M
that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks. opinion on this. While 26.1% agree that the LTTE is com 37.8% disagree with the statement. Amongst the Up-Cou while 22.5% disagree with the statement. When compare the agreement amongst the Tamil (March ’08: 29.9%, A Tamil (March ’08: 26.5%, August ’08: 20.9%) and the Mu 20.7%) communities has slightly decreased. (Ref. Page 17)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (75.6%) think that c of their military capacity. Amongst the Tamil commun currently weak militarily and 16.8% think it’s the same as Tamil community, 11.8% think that the LTTE is current Country Tamil community think the LTTE is weak. How know or are not sure is significantly high amongst the Tam Community (67.2%). Amongst the Muslim community, strong currently while 23.9% think the LTTE is weak. (Ref
♦ A significant majority of the Sinhala community (91% community (69.6%) think the Government’s security force

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, 39.5% believe that a political solution should be designed other 23% of the Sinhala community think that a political e the war continues. When compared to the PCI findings of at a political solution should be designed while the war gst the Tamil community (March ’08:49.5 %, August ’08: creased amongst the Up-Country Tamil community (March mongst the Sinhala community, those who think a political the war has slightly increased (March ’08: 33.2%, August ’08:
nity (69.6%) think that compared to a year ago, the country ent settlement to the ethnic conflict. A majority of the Tamil il (62.6%) communities think the country is not close at all he ethnic conflict. Amongst the Muslim community, 38.8% ose at all for a permanent settlement while 32% think it is CI findings of March 2008, amongst the Sinhala community, close to a permanent settlement have increased (March ’08: gst the Tamil community those who think that it remains the 6.5%, August ’08: 23.8%) while those who think that it is not arch ’08: 74.2%, August ’08: 64.8%). Amongst the Muslim is close (March ’08: 19.7%, August ’08: 32%) have increased t close at all (March ’08: 62.7%, August ’08: 38.8%) have
the Sinhala community (58.1%) and the Muslim community ent is committed to find peace through talks. A majority of isagree in this regard while a majority of the Up-Country now or are not sure. When compared to the PCI findings of gst the Sinhala community has increased (March ’08: 52.3%, greement amongst the Tamil (March ’08: 72.9%, August ’08: arch ’08: 44.5%, August ’08: 31.3%) and the Muslim August ’08: 26.7%) has significantly decreased. (Ref. Page 16)
unity (74.9%) and the Muslim community (45.1%) disagree find peace through talks. The Tamil community has a mixed ree that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks, nt. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 20.9% agree atement. When compared to the PCI findings of March ’08, il (March ’08: 29.9%, August ’08: 26.1%), the Up-Country ’08: 20.9%) and the Muslim (March ’08: 25.8%, August ’08: ecreased. (Ref. Page 17)
nity (75.6%) think that currently the LTTE is weak in terms ngst the Tamil community, 21.6% think that the LTTE is 8% think it’s the same as last year. Amongst the Up-County hat the LTTE is currently strong militarily. 7.2% of the Up- the LTTE is weak. However, interestingly, those who don’t tly high amongst the Tamil (36%) and the Up-Country Tamil the Muslim community, 34.7% think the LTTE is militarily
k the LTTE is weak. (Ref. Page 18)
Sinhala community (91%) and a majority of the Muslim vernment’s security forces are currently strong in terms of
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their military capacity. Amongst the Tamil community, currently strong militarily, 14.4% think its same as last yea currently weak militarily. Amongst the Up-Country T security forces are currently strong militarily while 6.7% t
♦ Current Security Condition: Compared to the situat
community think the national security has somewhat greatly improved. The Tamil community has a divided o Tamil community think it has got worse while another Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 38.5% think compared to the situation a year ago while 35.4% think i Muslim community, 32.8% think the national security ha think it has greatly improved. (Ref. Page 20)
♦ Compared to the situation a year ago, 28.5% of the Sinh of personal security remains the same. However, another has greatly improved while 24.4% think it has got worse. their personal security has worsened over the past one y communities. A majority of the Tamil community (44.4% got much worse while 42.1% think it has got worse community, 42.3% think their personal security has got worse. Amongst the Muslim community, 27.4% think th worse while 24.6% think it has got worse. However, 23.4 (Ref. Page 21)
♦ Of those who think that their personal security has
communities think their personal security is being threate attacks such as bomb blasts and shooting (Sinhala: 73.9% 54.2%, Muslim: 81.7%). Interestingly amongst the Sinhala c security is being threatened as a result of theft. However (Tamil:20%, Up-Country Tamil: 14.8%, Muslim: 15.3%) th threatened as a result of abductions. (Ref. Page 22)
♦ Cost of Living: When asked to describe the affect of lives, 47.8% of the Sinhala community, say it has affected t they live with some difficulties while another 45.8% sa affected their financial situation and therefore they live minority communities, a majority of them (Tamil: 52.2% 66.8%) say that the present cost of living has badly a therefore they live with great difficulties. However, am Muslim (27.7%) communities there is also a section who difficulties. (Ref. Page 23)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (53.6%) and the Tam
increased oil prices in the world market have contribute cost of living. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil co community (50.6%) think the increased oil prices in the some extent in increasing the cost of living. (Ref. Page 24)
♦ Overwhelming majority of the Tamil (85.1%) and the Up- and a majority of the Sinhala (59.7%) and the Muslim (48 going war has contributed to the increase cost of living. H

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the Tamil community, 28.8% think the security forces are think its same as last year. 7.2% think the security forces are ngst the Up-Country Tamil community, 11.3% think the ng militarily while 6.7% think they are weak. (Ref. Page 19)
Compared to the situation a year ago, 44.2% of the Sinhala ecurity has somewhat improved while 17.9% think it has munity has a divided opinion in this regard. 34.1% of the t worse while another 34.1% think it has got much worse. community, 38.5% think that national security has got worse ago while 35.4% think it has got much worse. Amongst the the national security has somewhat improved, while 17.8% f. Page 20)
r ago, 28.5% of the Sinhala community think that their level same. However, another 27.8% think their personal security think it has got worse. Interestingly, those who believe that ened over the past one year is highest amongst the minority Tamil community (44.4%) think their personal security has think it has got worse. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil rsonal security has got worse, 34.5% think it has got much mmunity, 27.4% think their personal security has got much ot worse. However, 23.4% think it has somewhat improved.
personal security has got worse, a majority of all the l security is being threatened now as a result of the terrorist shooting (Sinhala: 73.9%, Tamil: 68.2%, Up-Country Tamil: gly amongst the Sinhala community, 14.7% say their personal result of theft. However, amongst the minority communities 14.8%, Muslim: 15.3%) think their personal security is being
ns. (Ref. Page 22)
o describe the affect of the present cost of living on their nity, say it has affected their financial situation and therefore while another 45.8% say that the cost of living has badly and therefore they live with great difficulties. Amongst the y of them (Tamil: 52.2%, Up-Country Tamil: 83.6%, Muslim: st of living has badly affected their financial situation and difficulties. However, amongst the Tamil (41.9%) and the re is also a section who says that they live with only some
nity (53.6%) and the Tamil community (46.9%) think that the market have contributed to a great extent in increasing the e Up-Country Tamil community (49.8%) and the Muslim creased oil prices in the world market have contributed to st of living. (Ref. Page 24)
amil (85.1%) and the Up-Country Tamil (61.8%) communities .7%) and the Muslim (48.6%) communities think that the on increase cost of living. However, another 31.6% of the
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Sinhala community and 40.1% of the Muslim communitie contributed to the increase cost of living only to some ex
♦ Amongst the Sinhala community, 42.3% think that the co
contributed to some extent in increasing the cost o contributed a great extent. Amongst the Tamil commun contributed to the cost of living to a great extent while a to some extent. A majority of the Up-Country Tam communities think a large cabinet has contributed to so living while another 36.1% of the Up-Country Tamil and think it has contributed to a great extent. (Ref. Page 25)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (46.7%) and the Mu the poor economic policies of the previous regime ha increasing the cost of living. Amongst the Tamil commun some extent while 28.1% think it has contributed a grea Tamil community, 33.4% think it has contributed to so contributed to a great extent. (Ref. Page 25)
♦ In order to find out the extent to which the present cos
citizen, people were asked to indicate the compromis following four statements:
1) I have limited the extra activities/leisure activities (part present cost of living. 2) I have cut down the spending on non essential items meet the present cost of living. 3) I have limited the spending on education & health as w to meet the present cost of living. 4) I have sold or pawn some of my belongings or have t present cost of living.
According to the survey findings, only 6.1% say that they result of the increase cost of living. However, a majority they have not only compromised on extra activities, education, health & food, but have also started selling or loans. 24.9% say that they have limited their spending on and spending on education, health & food. When looking of the Tamil (52.5%) and the Muslim (61.4%) communitie the Up-Country Tamil (90.4%) community have not on essential items, and spending on education, health & fo pawning their belongings or taking loans in order meet Sinhala community, a majority seems to have compromis case of the minority communities they have not gone to t belongs or taking loans. (Ref. Page 26 – 27)
♦ A majority of the minority communities (Tamil: 72.2%
64.4%) completely disagree with the statement that the are doing their best to reduce the cost of living in the co mixed opinion in this regard. While 36.5% agree with the is noteworthy, that a majority of them completely rejects
♦ All the communities (Sinhala: 65.9%, Tamil: 57.2%, Up-Co disagree with the statement that the opposition MPs are d

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the Muslim communities believe that the on going war has of living only to some extent. (Ref. Page 24)
, 42.3% think that the cost of maintaining a large cabinet has increasing the cost of living while 41.6% think it has ngst the Tamil community, 43.3% think a large cabinet has to a great extent while another 37.1% say it has contributed f the Up-Country Tamil (41%) and the Muslim (44.3%) et has contributed to some extent in increasing the cost of e Up-Country Tamil and 36.7% of the Muslim communities t extent. (Ref. Page 25)
nity (46.7%) and the Muslim (41.1%) communities think that the previous regime have contributed to some extent in ongst the Tamil community 29% think it has contributed to it has contributed a great extent. Amongst the Up-Country t has contributed to some extent while 25.6% think it has ef. Page 25)
to which the present cost of living has affected the ordinary indicate the compromises that they are making using the
ies/leisure activities (parties/trips) in order to meet the
on non essential items like jewellery, furniture in order to
education & health as well as the spending on food in order . my belongings or have taken loans from others to meet the
only 6.1% say that they have not compromised anything as a ng. However, a majority of the respondents (45.8%) say that sed on extra activities, essential items, and spending on ve also started selling or pawning their belongings or taking limited their spending on extra activities, on essential items, h & food. When looking at the ethnic breakdown, a majority slim (61.4%) communities and an overwhelming majority of community have not only compromised on extra activities, education, health & food but have also started selling or ng loans in order meet the increased cost of living. Of the ems to have compromised on certain things but like in the they have not gone to the extent of selling or pawning their 26 – 27)
munities (Tamil: 72.2%, Up-Country Tamil: 60%, Muslim: the statement that the ministers and the government MPs e cost of living in the country. The Sinhala community has a ile 36.5% agree with the statement, 52.9% disagree with it. It them completely rejects the statement. (Ref. Page 28)
.9%, Tamil: 57.2%, Up-Country Tamil: 50.9%, Muslim: 53.1%)
the opposition MPs are doing their best to reduce the cost
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of living. It is noteworthy, that a majority of them comple 29)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community agree (61.6%) with t complain about the rising cost of living as the government the Tamil (84.3%), Up-Country Tamil (65.4%) and Musl disagrees with the statement. (Ref. Page 30)
♦ 43.5% of the Sinhala community, agree with the stateme about the rising cost of living as the oil prices in the wor 39.3% of the Sinhala community disagree with the statem the Up-Country Tamil (61.8%) communities, a majority di majority completely disagrees. Amongst the Muslim co statement. (Ref. Page 31)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community agree (51.3%) with t should not demand increase of salaries as the governmen contrary, a majority of the Tamil (65.1%) and the Up-C express their disagreement with the statement. In fact a reject this statement completely. The majority of the Mus while little over one third of the Muslim community is u Page 32)
♦ About half of the Sinhala community (57.8%), express the that “I will vote against the government in the next electio The agreement with the statement amongst the Sinhala contrary, a majority of the Tamil (58%) and the Up-C express their agreement with the statement saying that th due to present cost of living. In fact, 49.9% of the Up-Co with the statement. A majority of the Muslim community agree or disagree with the statement. (Ref. Page 33)
♦ When people were asked whether they will join with an
regime as they were unable to control the present cost ‘No’ by disagreeing to the statement. However on th Country Tamil (64.2%) communities express their agree will join with anyone to protest against the present regi the present cost of living. A majority of the Muslim (27.2% to agree or disagree with the statement. (Ref. Page 34)
♦ JVP Split: With regard to the split within the JVP, som
strong government and a weak opposition while some o democracy in the country. When asked whether this an and weak opposition, 34.7% of the respondents agree wh is a sign of a weakened democracy in the country, 23.9 Page 35 - 36)
♦ India & Other Countries: When asked which would b
discussions with the warring parties, an overwhelming community (82.1%) and 50% of the Muslim communities as USA, EU, Japan and Norway. Opinion in the Tamil com and India (Norway: 38.3%, India: 32.5%). However, 35.2%

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majority of them completely rejects the statement. (Ref. Page
nity agree (61.6%) with the statement that people should not living as the government is in a war with the LTTE. Amongst Tamil (65.4%) and Muslim (53.3%) communities, a majority f. Page 30)
, agree with the statement that people should not complain the oil prices in the world market are increasing. However, disagree with the statement. Amongst the Tamil (54.1%) and mmunities, a majority disagrees with the statement although mongst the Muslim community, 51.6% disagrees with the
nity agree (51.3%) with the statement that the Trade Unions alaries as the government is in a war with the LTTE. On the il (65.1%) and the Up-Country Tamil (54.9%) communities the statement. In fact a majority of these two communities The majority of the Muslim community (48%) also disagrees Muslim community is unable to express their opinion. (Ref.
nity (57.8%), express their disagreement with the statement nment in the next election due to the present cost of living”. ent amongst the Sinhala community is only 14.3%. On the il (58%) and the Up-Country Tamil (61.5%) communities statement saying that they will vote against this government fact, 49.9% of the Up-Country Tamil are in a full agreement f the Muslim community (37.3%) are not decided whether to
ent. (Ref. Page 33)
er they will join with anyone to protest against the present ontrol the present cost of living, 65.4% of the Sinhalese say ement. However on the contrary Tamil (48.7%) and Up- ities express their agreement with the statement that they against the present regime as they were unable to control rity of the Muslim (27.2%) community express their inability tement. (Ref. Page 34)
split within the JVP, some say that this is an indication of a opposition while some others say it is a sign of a weakened n asked whether this an indication of a strong government he respondents agree while 19% disagrees. When asked if it acy in the country, 23.9% agree while 19.8% disagree. (Ref.
en asked which would be the best country to mediate peace rties, an overwhelming majority of the Up-Country Tamil he Muslim communities prefer India or other countries such Opinion in the Tamil community is divided between Norway 32.5%). However, 35.2% of the Sinhala
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community say they are not sure about which would b peace discussion if they are going to be a foreign mediate In the mean time 21.9% prefer India and 12.8% prefer USA given countries are suitable to mediate peace discussion contradictory preferences expressed by the Sinhalese Norwegians as their choice for mediator. 38.3% of Tam less than 1% of the Sinhalese prefer the same as the b discussion. (Ref. Page 37)
♦ In order to understand the public attitude towards India, Pakistan, people were asked to express their preferen these countries are favorable or friendly to Sri Lanka usin at the preferences the survey data shows that their choi group. Sinhalese consider India (83.8%), China (71.2%), Jap (57.2%) as favorable countries. 47% & 32% of Sinhale respectively, as not very favorable countries to Sri Lank Norway, and EU countries are the three friendliest coun countries in general are considered as friendly nations. It Up-Country Tamil community express their inability t countries are friendly or not friendly to Sri Lanka. H Norway (80%) at the top of the list. The Muslim comm the given countries as unfriendly nations to Sri Lanka. Muslim community place India (88%) and Pakistan (80% nation to Sri Lanka while listing USA as the last. (Ref. Page
♦ When asked about India specifically in terms of initia
government’s war effort, in facing the countries energy see Indian involvement as very important in the arena o against the LTTE (58.9%). However, it is interesting to n consider India as an important partner in all given four India’s involvement as very important in initiating p development (76.4%) and even in facing the energy cris Tamil community do not think India’s involvement is imp (33%). The Up - Country Tamil community share the sam sees India’ s involvement as important in the case of initia development (71.6%) and in facing the energy crisis community shows that they consider India’s engageme However, they place more emphasis on the energy crisi (Ref. Page 40 - 41)
♦ Eastern Province Elections: A majority of the Sinha statement that the Eastern Provincial Council election wa the Sinhala community expresses their disagreement. Am agree while 33.3% disagree with the statement. A m community (73.9%) don’t know or are not sure whet statement. A majority of the Muslim community (43.3%) Council election was free & fair. In fact a majority of disagree with the statement. (Ref. Page 42)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (56.8%) agree t
election is an important turning point in improving democ community 36.6% agree while 28.8% disagree with the sta

ex
re about which would be the best country to mediate the to be a foreign mediated peace initiatives in the near future. dia and 12.8% prefer USA while 20.9% state that none of the ediate peace discussions. It should be noted that there are essed by the Sinhalese and Tamil communities over the mediator. 38.3% of Tamil community prefer Norway while refer the same as the best country to mediate the peace
c attitude towards India, Norway, EU, Japan, USA, China and express their preference by stating whether they believe friendly to Sri Lanka using a three point scale. When looking ta shows that their choices differ depending on their ethnic 3.8%), China (71.2%), Japan (71%), Pakistan (68.9%) and USA 47% & 32% of Sinhalese consider Norway and the EU le countries to Sri Lanka. For the Tamil community, India, e three friendliest countries to Sri Lanka while all the other ed as friendly nations. It is noteworthy, that a majority of the express their inability to form an opinion whether these riendly to Sri Lanka. However, they put India (84%) and list. The Muslim community also does not consider any of y nations to Sri Lanka. The overwhelming majority of the 88%) and Pakistan (80%) as the first and second friendliest
SA as the last. (Ref. Page 38 - 39 )
fically in terms of initiating peace with the LTTE, in the g the countries energy crisis and in development, Sinhalese mportant in the arena of development (70.5%) and the war ver, it is interesting to note that a majority of the Sinhalese partner in all given four areas. The Tamil community sees portant in initiating peace with the Tigers (71.8%), in in facing the energy crisis (65%) However, the majority of dia’s involvement is important in the government war effort community share the same opinion while a majority of them rtant in the case of initiating peace with the Tigers (72%), in acing the energy crisis (69.6%). Opinion of the Muslim nsider India’s engagement as important in all the aspects. hasis on the energy crisis (73.8%) and development (72.5%).
A majority of the Sinhala community (44%) agree with the ncial Council election was free & fair. Nevertheless, 19.1% of s their disagreement. Amongst the Tamil community, 31.6% ith the statement. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil or are not sure whether to agree or disagree with the slim community (43.3%) disagree that the Eastern Provincial r. In fact a majority of the Muslim community completely . Page 42)
munity (56.8%) agree that the Eastern Provincial Council oint in improving democracy in the east. Amongst the Tamil .8% disagree with the statement. A majority of the Up-
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Country Tamil (77.9%) and the Muslim community (53 whether to agree or disagree with the statement. Howev 20.6% agree while 25.7% disagree. (Ref. Page 42)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (47%) agree that
Eastern Province will be able to develop the region. Am agree while 25.5% of them disagree. A majority of the U don’t know or are not sure whether to agree or disagre 20.4% agree while 21.9% disagree. (Ref. Page 43)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (51.8%) agree that t safer than before the Provincial Council elections. Am agree while 21.9% disagree. Amongst the Up-Country T the statement while the majority (77.1%) don’t know or community, 22.2% agree while 17.8% disagree. (Ref. Page 4
♦ A majority of all the communities (Sinhala: 52.7%, Tam
Muslim: 65.4%) don’t know or are not sure whether Provincial Council will be able to get full Provincial However, 24% of the Sinhala, 25.8% of the Tamil, 10.8% o the Muslim communities agree. (Ref. Page 44)
♦ A majority of all the communities (Sinhala: 61.6%, Tam
Muslim: 66.8%) don’t know or are not sure whether the is helpful to persuade the people in the north for a so system. However, 26.5% of the Sinhala community and 17 that the present political situation is helpful in persuad solution under the Provincial Council. (Ref. Page 44)
♦ A majority of all the communities (Sinhala: 53.6%, Tami Muslim: 67.8%) don’t know or are not sure whether th democratic politics. However, amongst the Sinhala co disagree. Amongst the Muslim community, 22.1% disagree
♦ A majority of all the communities (Sinhala: 51.8%, Tami
Muslim: 64.2%) don’t know or are not sure whether the P solution for the country’s ethnic conflict. However, 27.2% the Tamil community, 16.3% of the Up-Country Tamil co community think the Provincial Council system is the be conflict. (Ref. Page 45)
♦ Analyst and officials have pointed out the weaknesses majority of all the communities don’t know or are not weaknesses. However, a considerable section of the Tam (27.3%) think that these weaknesses are due to the ce devolve power. (Ref. Page 46)
♦ Losing the UNHRC Seat: A majority of the Sinhala
and the Muslim (62.8%) communities don’t know or ar recently lost its seat at the United Nations Human Right the Tamil community (46%) think it’s because of the wide Page 47)

ex
Muslim community (53.6%) don’t know or are not sure th the statement. However, amongst the Muslim community,
. (Ref. Page 42)
unity (47%) agree that the new political leadership in the develop the region. Amongst the Tamil community, 31.7% ree. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil community (78%) ther to agree or disagree. Amongst the Muslim community, . (Ref. Page 43)
nity (51.8%) agree that the people in the east are now much l Council elections. Amongst the Tamil community, 33.6% ongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 13.7% agree with (77.1%) don’t know or are not sure. Amongst the Muslim .8% disagree. (Ref. Page 43)
ies (Sinhala: 52.7%, Tamil: 56%, Up-Country Tamil: 80.4%, are not sure whether the new leadership in the Eastern to get full Provincial Council powers to the province. .8% of the Tamil, 10.8% of the Up-Country Tamil, and 16% of Ref. Page 44)
ies (Sinhala: 61.6%, Tamil: 60%, Up-Country Tamil: 77.2%, e not sure whether the present political situation in the East le in the north for a solution under the Provincial Council inhala community and 17.8% of the Muslim community agree ion is helpful in persuading the people in the north for a uncil. (Ref. Page 44)
es (Sinhala: 53.6%, Tamil: 56.4%, Up-Country Tamil: 80.3%, re not sure whether the TMVP is genuinely committed to amongst the Sinhala community 20.7% agree while 25.8%
mmunity, 22.1% disagree with the statement. (Ref. Page 45)
es (Sinhala: 51.8%, Tamil: 53.2%, Up-Country Tamil: 74.1%, e not sure whether the Provincial Council system is the best conflict. However, 27.2% of the Sinhala community, 26.1% of the Up-Country Tamil community, and 20.2% of the Muslim Council system is the best solution for the country’s ethnic
ed out the weaknesses within the Provincial Councils. A don’t know or are not sure what is the reason for these rable section of the Tamil (25.1%) and the Up-Country Tamil esses are due to the central governments unwillingness to
majority of the Sinhala (52.5%), Up-Country Tamil (67.3%) nities don’t know or are not sure of the reason Sri Lanka ed Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC). A majority of it’s because of the widespread human rights violations. (Ref.
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♦ Of those who are aware of the loss of the UNHRC se thinks that it will have a bad effect on the country’s inter it will have a negative impact on the country in general. A think it will have a bad effect on the country’s internation have a negative impact on the countries economy. community, 46.5% think it will have a negative impact on think it will have bad effect on the country’s internatio community, 46.7% think it will have a bad effect on the co 28.9% think it will have a negative impact on the countries
♦ APRC: People were questioned about the usefulness of
their ethnic group a majority say they are not aware o 54.7%, Up-Country Tamil: 74.3%, Muslim: 61.7%). community, unawareness is higher amongst Up-Countr Almost one quarter of Sinhalease, 1/5 of the Tamils and Tamil, say that they don’t know to make an opinion o express an opinion on the APRC more Sinhalese and M build a consensus in the south or to deliver a political pa tool for consensus building though it will not be able to 49)
♦ The government has recently announced that the TMVP
34.7% of the Sinhala community approve of it while 16.6% the Tamil community, 20.3% approve while 19.9% disa Tamil community, 27% approve while 6.3% disapprove 37.1% approve while 5.7% disapprove. (Ref. Page 50)
♦ The interim report of the APRC calls for, amongst the o
of the 13th Amendment. 22% of the Sinhala communit community, and 28.7% of the Muslim community approve Amendment. However, the Tamil community are either n Amendment (23.8%) or not aware of the APRC report (1
♦ The President: With regard to President Mahinda Ra
law and order, a majority of the Sinhala (79.9%) and the M their satisfaction. A majority of Tamil (86.6%) and communities express their dissatisfaction. (Ref. Page 52)
♦ With regard to President Mahinda Rajapkse’s performan 37.2% of the Sinhala community express satisfaction while dissatisfaction. A majority of Tamil (94.3%) and the Up-C express their dissatisfaction. Amongst the Muslim comm while 20.3% express satisfaction. (Ref. Page 52)
♦ With regard to President Mahinda Rajapkse’s perform
relations, a majority of the Sinhala (79.4%) and the Mu satisfaction. A majority of Tamil (63.1%) and the Up-C express their dissatisfaction. (Ref. Page 53)
♦ With regard to President Mahinda Rajapkse’s performanc of the Sinhala (93.1%) and the Muslim (57.2%) communitie

ex
loss of the UNHRC seat, 24.7% of the Sinhala community ct on the country’s international relations while 19.1% think the country in general. Amongst the Tamil community, 38.8% the country’s international relations while 35.1% think it will e countries economy. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil ve a negative impact on the country’s economy while 37.4% the country’s international relations. Amongst the Muslim ve a bad effect on the country’s international relations while
impact on the countries economy. (Ref. Page 48)
about the usefulness of the APRC. However, irrespective of y they are not aware of the APRC (Sinhala: 52.7%, Tamil: .3%, Muslim: 61.7%). Compared to Sinhala and Tamil her amongst Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities. e, 1/5 of the Tamils and Muslims, 17.6% of the Up-Country to make an opinion on the APRC. Amongst those who more Sinhalese and Muslims believe it has failed either to r to deliver a political package. The Tamils think it is a useful gh it will not be able to deliver a political package. (Ref. Page
nounced that the TMVP had been invited to join the APRC. approve of it while 16.6% of them disapprove of it. Amongst prove while 19.9% disapprove. Amongst the Up-Country while 6.3% disapprove. Amongst the Muslim community, rove. (Ref. Page 50)
calls for, amongst the other things, the full implementation f the Sinhala community, 19.8% of the Up-Country Tamil slim community approve the full implementation of the 13th il community are either not aware of the content of the 13th e of the APRC report (13.1%).(Ref. Page 51)
o President Mahinda Rajapkse’s performance in maintaining Sinhala (79.9%) and the Muslim (51.7%) communities express of Tamil (86.6%) and the Up-Country Tamil (49.6%) isfaction. (Ref. Page 52)
da Rajapkse’s performance in controlling the cost of living, express satisfaction while a majority of them (57.3%) express il (94.3%) and the Up-Country Tamil (69.2%) communities ongst the Muslim community, 71.8% express dissatisfaction (Ref. Page 52)
inda Rajapkse’s performance in maintaining international hala (79.4%) and the Muslim (53.5%) communities express il (63.1%) and the Up-Country Tamil (28.2%) communities . Page 53)
da Rajapkse’s performance in conducting the war, a majority slim (57.2%) communities express satisfaction. A majority of
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Tamil (87.3%) community express their dissatisfaction. A (58.1%) community have no opinion in this regard. (Ref. Pa
♦ Human Rights: There have been recent attacks agains abductions and killings. In this context, people were asked the government, other armed groups and the journalists majority of the Up-Country Tamil (49%) and the Musli ignorance on the issue. A majority of the Tamil (49.2%) c and the armed groups are responsible for the abduct Amongst the Sinhala community, 33.5% express their ign that the government, armed groups and the journalists abductions and killings of the journalist. (Ref. Page 54)
For further information plea
Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Ra
Social Indicator
Centre for Policy Alterna
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472/4 Email: info@cp
Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://w

0 ex
ss their dissatisfaction. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil ion in this regard. (Ref. Page 53)
en recent attacks against the journalist including attempted ntext, people were asked as to what extent they believe that oups and the journalists are responsible for these attacks. A mil (49%) and the Muslim (45.6%) communities show their ity of the Tamil (49.2%) community say that the government ponsible for the abductions and killings of the journalists. , 33.5% express their ignorance on the issue while 30.9% say ups and the journalists themselves are responsible for the rnalist. (Ref. Page 54)
ther information please contact:
eep Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator
entre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
0472/4 Email: info@cpasocialindicator.org
2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
8
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Peace Confidence Index (PC
May 2001 – August 2008
Important Issues
Rating the degree of importance of five national issues
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
0.1
10.8
19.1
0.7
13.6
27.8
0 20
%
Changes of opinion from March '08 to
28.1 27.8
21.8
12.1
24.2
19.9
27.0
3
Up-Country Tamil
0.2
12.5
20.3
25.9
11.0
17.6
23.4
Tamil
1.6
8.4
18.1
20.0
25.5
26.5
Sinhala
100%
0.6
13.7 0.7
13.6
1.1 9.9 1.6 8.4 0.7 12.0 0.2 12.5 1.3 8
80%
22.7
27.0
21.3 18.1
16.9
20.3
1
60%
19.8
19.9
28.2
26.5 25.2
25.9
2
40%
15
11.0
0%
March '08
20.0 17.9
17.6
11 17.9
20%
25.5 27.4
23.4
3
August '08
March '08
August '08
March '08
August '08
Ma '0
Sinhala Tamil Up-Country
Tamil
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ce Confidence Index (PCI) May 2001 – August 2008
of five national issues
Ethnic Breakdown
19.1
24.2
33.7
17.6
20.3
23.4
25.9
18.1
20.0
25.5
26.5
19.9
27.0
27.8
20 40
ex
8
Others (specify)
Corruption
The conflict in the North and East
A peace process in Sri Lanka
Law and Order
The Economy
n from March '08 to August '08
4 0.7
12.0 0.2 12.5 1.3 8.9 0.1 10.8
1 16.9
20.3
16
19.1
Others (specify)
Corruption
.5 25.2
25.9
29.2
24.2
The conflict in the North and East
.0 17.9
17.6
11.2
12.1
A peace process in Sri Lanka
Law and Order
.5 27.4
23.4
ust 8
33.5 33.7
March '08
August '08
March '08
August '08
Up-Country Tamil
Muslim
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Solution How do you think we can end the war and arrive at peac
Ethnic Breakdown
1.2
4.4
Muslim
0.8 2
8.8
77.5
5.2
Up-Country
0.5
18.8
76.4 Tamil
1.2
6
8.2
9.3
0.1
50.9
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
Changes of opinion from March '08 to A
48.1
3.1
0.5 0.5
Tamil
0.8 1.6
5.7
13.1
78.7
Sinhala
0.5
23.8
100%
8.8 3.2
1.2 6 1.1 3.2
16.5 18.8
3.7 2.5 1.2
4
0.5
0%
3.2 5.7
0.6 0.5 March
'08
9.3 80%
16.6
8.2
7.2 60%
14.6
23.8
1.3 0.3
0.5 0.1
83
40%
78.7
83.8
77
77.3
76.4
20%
50.9
6.4 3.2
1.6 0.8
13.1
0.6 1.1
4.0
0.5
3.1
1.7 4.6 2.1 1.7
0.8 2
8
5 August
'08
March '08
August '08
March '08
August '08
March '08
Aug '0
Sinhala Tamil Up-Country
Tamil
Muslim
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

e war and arrive at peace in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
9
Don't know/Not sure 77.5
Other
76.4
Stop the war and conduct political negotiations
Conducting peace talks while having military operations 78.7
Political negotiations after Government defeats LTTE Political negotiations after LTTE defeats Government
LTTE defeating the Government
Government defeating the LTTE 0 80 100
n from March '08 to August '08
1.7
Don't know/Not sure
6.5 18.8
3.7 2.5
1.2
4.4
0.5
Other
Stop the war and conduct political
83.8
77.5
negotiations
7.3
76.4
Conducting peace talks while having military operations
Political negotiations after
4.0
0.5 0.5
3.1
1.7 4.6 2.1
0.8 2
8.8 5.2 Government defeats LTTE
Political negotiations after LTTE defeats Government arch
August '08
'08
LTTE defeating the Government
Government defeating the LTTE March '08
August '08
p-Country
Tamil
Muslim
ex
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Some say that irrespective of how the war ends; a polit resolve the present conflict. There are also some who d you think?
I think that a political settlement is:
Ethnic Breakdown
11.5 Muslim
7.5
16.8
31.4
0 20 40 60
%
Changes of Opinion from March '08 t
31.6 31.4
21.7
16.1
59.
32.3 Up-Country Tamil
1.6
25.3
40.9
5.7 Tamil
5.7
16.3
Sinhala
35.7
100%
March '08
16.8 1
11.5
5.7
32.3
1
43.7
1.1
0%
17.6
5.7
80%
18.1
16.1
17.7
16.3
11.5
1.6 60%
30
35.7
25.3
40%
69.8
72.4
20%
30.1
40.9
August '08
March '08
August '08
March '08
August '08
Sinhala Tamil Up-Country
Tamil
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ow the war ends; a political solution is still necessary to ere are also some who disagree with this idea. What do
t is:
Ethnic Breakdown
31.4
Don't know/ Not Sure
Not required
Useful
Essential
ion from March '08 to August '08
2.4
30.1
59.3
32.3
35.7
40 60 80
%
40.9
72.4
5.7 5.7
13.6
11.5 1.2 6.3
43.7
1.1
32.3
7.5
11.5
ugust '08
11.1
21.7
Don't know/ Not Sure
1.6
Not required
25.3
Useful
Essential 71.2
59.3
40.9
March '08
August '08
March '08
August '08
Up-Country Tamil
Muslim
ex
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When do you think should a political solution be designed
Ethnic Breakdown
23
33.2
Muslim
8.6
9.8
20.8 16.7
0 20 %
40 60
Changes of Opinion from March '08
26
23
48.4
Up-Country
2
22.3
Tamil
7.4
39.5
68.2
16.4
Tamil
8.2
18.9
56.6
Sinhala
100%
22.4 20.8 22.1
16.4
22.3 80%
2.1
8.2
2 65.4
March '08
32.9
2.7
0%
18.4
16.7
18.9
7.4
60%
26.3
1.2
13.6
40%
33.2 39.5
7.1
68.2
20%
49.5
56.6
52.3
24.7
August '08
March '08
August '08
March '08
August '08
March '08
Sinhala Tamil Up-Country
Tamil
Mu
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

itical solution be designed?
Ethnic Breakdown
48.4
68.2
56.6
39.5
0 60 80
ex
8
Don't know/ Not Sure
A political solution is not required
After the war
While the war continues
inion from March '08 to August '08
24.7
22.3
32.9 33.2
.7
65.4
2
7.4
1.2
13.6
Don't know/ Not Sure
A political solution is not required 9.8
After the war
While the war continues
t March
'08
8.6
68.2 7.1
52.3
48.4
August '08
March '08
August '08
Up-Country Tamil
Muslim
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Compared to the situation a year ago, how close do you in approaching a permanent settlement to the ethnic conf
Ethnic Breakdown
5.6
Muslim
38.8
5.7
10.7
0 20 40 60
%
Changes of Opinion from March '08 t
60.7
23.6
4.2
32
15.4
Up-Country Tamil
17.9
62.6
4.1
5.7
Tamil
23.8
64
Sinhala
15.5
100%
March '08
3.1
5.7 2.5
0%
10.2 10.7 80% 7.8
4.2
15.5
14.7
15.4
17.9
60%
74.2
64.8
62.5
62.6
40%
69.6
20%
16.5 23.8
15.8 17.9 4.1 5.7 3.3 4.1
August '08
March '08
August '08
March '08
August '08
Sinhala Tamil Up-Country
Tamil
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

r ago, how close do you think the country is, at present, ement to the ethnic conflict?
Ethnic Breakdown
38.8
69.6
40 60 80
Don't know / Not sure
Not close at all
Remains the same
Close
nion from March '08 to August '08
7
3.3 4.1
62.6
64.8
7 2.5 5.6 ust 8
14.7
15.4
19.7
Don't know / Not sure 38.8
Not close
.8
62.7
Remains the same
62.5
62.6
Close 23.6
15.2
.8
15.8
17.9 32
March '08
August '08
March '08
August '08
Up-Country Tamil
Muslim
ex
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Commitment I think the Government is committed to find peace throu
Ethnic Breakdow
10.8
26.3 Muslims
26.7
18.4
0 20 40
%
Changes of opinion from March '08 t
52.3
5.2
47.1
23.5
50.5 Up-Country Tamil
31.3 18.1
27.5 Tamil
Sinhala
100%
March '08
18.4 18.8
80%
0%
21.5
27.5
34.6
25.3
23.5
50.5
60%
40%
58.1
72.9
61.7
44.5
31.3
20%
10.8
11.5
18.1
August '08
March '08
August '08
March '08
August '08
Sinhala Tamil Up-Country
Tamil
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

itted to find peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
26.3 26.7
27.5
58.1
40 60 80
%
47.1
23.5
50.5 31.3
61.7
ex
Don't know/Not sure
Disagree
Agree
nion from March '08 to August '08
7.5
34.6
0.8
17.1
26.3
50.5
11.5
ugust '08
Don't know/Not sure
Disagree 39.6
26.7
Agree
1.7
44.5
31.3
47.1
18.1
40.4
March '08
August '08
March '08
August '08
Up-Country Tamil
Muslim
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I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks
Ethnic Breakdown
2.3
34.2 Muslims
45.1
22.7
0 20 40 60
%
Changes of opinion from March '08
3.2 2.3
20.7
37.8
56 Up-Country Tamil
22.5 20.9
36.1 Tamil
26.1
Sinhala
100%
March '08
18.6
36.1
37.6
56.6
0%
25.4
22.7 80%
60%
42.3
40%
70.3 74.9
37.8
22.7
22.5
20%
29.9
26.1
26.5
20.9
August '08
March '08
August '08
March '08
August '08
Sinhala Tamil Up-Country
Tamil
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

find peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
34.2
6.1
74.9
40 60 80
%
45.1
36.1
Don't know/Not sure
Disagree
Agree
inion from March '08 to August '08
.1
56.6
37.8
.1
37.6
27.9
34.2
56.6
gust
8
Don't know/Not sure
Disagree
41.8
45.1
Agree .8
22.7
22.5
26.5
20.9
25.8
20.7
March
August
March
August '08
'08
'08
'08
Up-Country
Muslim Tamil
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Some people say that compared to a year ago the LTT their military capacity. However, some others say the LT their military capacity. What is your opinion on LTTE's cu
Ethnic Breakdo
0.4
Muslims
15.9
23.9
25.1
34.7
9.2
Up-Country Tamil
4.6
7.2
11.8
Tamil
14.4
11.2
16.8
21.6
36
Sinhala
0.4
8.2
6.9
8.9
0 20 40 6
%
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

to a year ago the LTTE is stronger today in terms of , some others say the LTTE is weaker today in terms of
ur opinion on LTTE's current military capacity?
Ethnic Breakdown
5.1 .9
34.7
36
75.6
40 60 80
%
Refuse to answer
Don't know/ Not sure 67.2
Weak
Same as last year
Strong
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Some people say that compared to a year ago the secur terms of their military capacity. However, some othe weaker today in terms of their military capacity. Wh government's current military capacity?
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslims
4.8 5.2
20.4
28.8
0.5
0.9
3.9
%
69.6
3.7
9.7
Up-Country Tamil
4.6
6.7
11.3
67.7
Tamil
7.2
13.6
36
14.4
Sinhala
0 20 40 60 80
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

to a year ago the security forces are stronger today in . However, some others say the security forces are ir military capacity. What is your assessment of the pacity?
Ethnic Breakdown
91 69.6
Refuse to answer
Don't know/Not Sure
Weak
Same as last year
Strong 6
67.7
0 60 80 100
%
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Copyright © Social Indicator August 2008
Current Security Condition
"Some people perceive that the national security has im others think it has got worse." Compared to the situatio national security (country's security) has improved or wo
Ethnic Breakdow
2.8
Muslim
11.5
13.4
21.7
17.8
32.8
16.4
Up-Country Tamil
2.6 2.6
4.6
1.5
5
12.6
18.7 17.9
4
0 20 40
%
35.4
38.5
4
Tamil
17.5
34.1 34.1
0.8
9.5
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

n
national security has improved in the last year while ompared to the situation a year ago, do you think the ity) has improved or worsened?
Ethnic Breakdown
21.7
34.1
.9 .8
32.8
Don't know/Not sure
Got much worse 35.4
Got worse
Remains the same
Somewhat improved
Greatly improved
8.7
44.2
40 60
%
38.5
.5
34.1
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"Some people perceive that their personal security has others think it has got worse." Compared to the situatio personal security has improved or worsened?
Ethnic Breakdown
2.4
Muslim
10.7
11.5
24.6
27.4
23.4
14.4
Up-Country Tamil
2.6
3.1 3.1
3
6.3
10.1
24.4
27.8
28.5
0 20 40
%
34.5
42.3
3.2
Tamil
3.2
7.1
42.1
44
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ir personal security has improved in the last year while ompared to the situation a year ago, do you think your r worsened?
Ethnic Breakdown
24.6
27.4
23.4
44.4
27.8
28.5
40 60
%
Don't know/Not sure
34.5
42.3
Got much worse
Got worse
Remains the same
Somewhat improved 42.1
Greatly improved
24.4
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If you think that your personal security got worse, in whic security is being threatened now?
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
0.8
2.3
15.3
4.9
14.7
73.9
0 20 40 60 80
%
81.7
Up-Country
Tamil
1.9
11.6
17.4
4.6 2
14.8
54.2
Tamil
0.9 1.8
9.1
20
68.2
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

curity got worse, in which way you think your personal ?
Ethnic Breakdown
73.9
81.7
60 80 100
%
Don't know/Not sure
Other 54.2
Theft
Abductions 68.2
Terrorist attacks such as
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Cost of Living Now I am going to read out some statements where p present cost of living (COL) on their lives. Please ch describes your situation.
Ethnic Breakdown
0.5
66.8 Muslim
5
27.7
0.4
45.8
47.8 5.9
0 20 40 60 80 1
%
83.6 Up-Country
1.2
15.2
52.2 Tamil
5.9
41.9
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

me statements where people describe the affect of the n their lives. Please choose the statement that best
Ethnic Breakdown
.8
Present COL has affected badly on 66.8
my financial situation and I live with great difficulties
83.6
Present COL has affected my financial situation and I live with some difficulties
2.2
Present COL does not have any affect on my financial situation and I live as same as before
Present COL does not have any affect on my financial situation and I live more comfortably than before
60 80 100
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People give various reasons for the present cost of living. has the following contributed to the increase cost of living
Increase oil prices in the world market
Ethnic Breakdow
10.5
Muslim
7.5
31.3
11.9
Up-Country Tamil
11.7
26.6
8.5
Tamil
3.8
5.1
38.1
0 20 40
%
On going war
Ethnic Breakdown
59.7
40.
Sinhala
3.2
5.5
Muslim
5.7
40.1
48.6
9.1
Up-Country Tamil
5.1
24
3.2
5.5
31.6
0 20 40 60
%
61.8
0.8
Tamil
0.7
13.4
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

he present cost of living. In your opinion to what extent the increase cost of living?
arket
Ethnic Breakdown
50.6
53.6
0 40 60
%
31.3
38.1
DK/NS
No at all
To Some extent
To a great extent
Ethnic Breakdown
59.7
49.8 26.6
40.9
46.9
40.1
48.6
1.6
40 60 80 100
%
DK/NS
No at all
61.8
To Some extent
To a great extent
85.1
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People give various reasons for the present cost of living. has the following contributed to the increase cost of living
High cost of maintaining a large cabinet
Ethnic Breakdown
16.4 Muslim
2.6
12.1
4
0 20 40
%
Bad economic policies of previous regimes
Ethnic Breakdown
15.8
36.7
16.4 Up-Country Tamil
6.5
41 36.1
14.1 Tamil
5.6
37.1
Sinhala
4.1
4
21.9
Muslim
14.3
22.3
0 20 40
%
41
15.2
22.6
24.9
Up-Country Tamil
16.1
29
33.4 25.6
26.2
Tamil
16.6
28.1
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

he present cost of living. In your opinion to what extent the increase cost of living?
abinet
Ethnic Breakdown
.4
41.6
0 40 60
%
44.3
.4
36.7
42.3
DK/NS
No at all
To Some extent
To a great extent
s regimes
Ethnic Breakdown
28.1
41 36.1
37.1
43.3
21.9
0 40 60
%
41.1 22.6
24.9
DK/NS
No at all
25.6
33.4
To Some extent
26.2
To a great extent 6
29
22.3
46.7
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Following Index was made based on the answers given to
1) I have limited the extra activities/leisure activities (par present cost of living. 2) I have cut down the spending on non essential items l to meet the present cost of living. 3) I have limited the spending on education & health as order to meet the present cost of living. 4) I have sold or pawn some of my belongings or have ta the present cost of living.
These statements indicate the compromises that people a present cost of living.
National Breakdow
60
40
%
20
17.5
6 5.8
0
No compromises One of the three
Two of the three compromises
compromises
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

on the answers given to four statements.
ties/leisure activities (parties/trips) in order to meet the
on non essential items like jewellery, furniture in order . n education & health as well as the spending on food in
f living. my belongings or have taken loans from others to meet
mpromises that people are making in order to meet the
National Breakdown
17.5
45.8
ree es
24.9
Two of the three compromises
All three compromises
Not only compromised but have borrowed too
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Following Index was made based on the answers given to
1) I have limited the extra activities/leisure activities (par present cost of living. 2) I have cut down the spending on non essential items l to meet the present cost of living. 3) I have limited the spending on education & health as order to meet the present cost of living. 4) I have sold or pawn some of my belongings or have ta the present cost of living.
These statements indicate the compromises that people a present cost of living.
Ethnic Breakdown
1.3 Muslim
5.6
6.9
24.9
61.4
0.5
0.5
4.3 Up-country Tamil
4.3
90.4
Tamil
5.7
7.4
18.9
15.6
52.5
Sinhala
6.5
7.5
22.8
29.6
33.6
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

on the answers given to four statements.
ties/leisure activities (parties/trips) in order to meet the
on non essential items like jewellery, furniture in order . n education & health as well as the spending on food in
f living. my belongings or have taken loans from others to meet
mpromises that people are making in order to meet the
Ethnic Breakdown
61.4
29.6 33.6
60% 80% 100%
No compromises
One of the three compromises 90.4
Two of the three compromises
All three compromises 52.5
Not only compromised but have borrowed too
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Now I am going read some statements regarding the pre know to what extent you agree on each of them.
I think ministers and Government MPs are doing their bes the country
Ethnic Breakdown
4
16.8
Muslim
1.9
16.8
22.4
42
Up-Country Tamil
2
8.5
17.6
29.4
42.4
Tamil
2.2
10.1
15.4
26.2
46
Sinhala
10.6
21.2
31.7
32.5
0 20 40
%
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ments regarding the present cost of living. Please let me n each of them.
t MPs are doing their best to reduce the cost of living in
Ethnic Breakdown
2.4
42
29.4
.2
32.5
40 60 %
Don't know/Not sure
42.4
Completely disagree
Disagree
Somewhat agree
26.2
46
Fully agree
31.7
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Now I am going read some statements regarding the pre know to what extent you agree on each of them.
I think opposition MPs are doing their best to reduce the
Ethnic Breakdown
1.3
20.5
Muslim
18.3
28.6
0 20 %
22.2 4.2
22.9
17.7
30
Up-Country Tamil
4.1
14.3
16.6
14.6
Tamil
2.8
25.4
15
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ments regarding the present cost of living. Please let me n each of them.
their best to reduce the cost of living
Ethnic Breakdown
20.5
17.7
20 40 %
34.8
5
18.3
22.2
28.6
37.3
Don't know/Not sure
16.6
30.9
34.2
Completely disagree
.3
Disagree
Somewhat agree .6
34.3
Fully agree 22.9
25.4
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Now I am going read some statements regarding the pre know to what extent you agree on each of them.
I think people should not complain about the rising cost a war with the LTTE
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
2.4
12.4
20.4
16.7
31.9
32.9
Up-Country Tamil
9.9
29.5
55.5
1
4.1
8.8
Tamil
3.3 3.6
15.6
Sinhala
6.2
11.1
21.1
44.9
0 20 40 60
%
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ments regarding the present cost of living. Please let me n each of them.
in about the rising cost of living as the government is in
Ethnic Breakdown
31.9
32.9
29.5
44.9
40 60 80
%
Don't know/Not sure 55.5
Completely disagree
Disagree
68.7
Somewhat agree
Fully agree
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Now I am going read some statements regarding the pre know to what extent you agree on each of them.
I think people should not complain about the rising cost world market are increasing
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
2.5
12.6
18.8
32.8
33.3
28.2
Up-Country Tamil
2.9
7.1
11
Tamil
14
16.6
40.1
8.2
21.1
Sinhala
5.3
7.6
17.2
31.7
38.2
0 20 40
%
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ments regarding the present cost of living. Please let me n each of them.
ain about the rising cost of living as the oil prices in the
Ethnic Breakdown
33.3
38.2
40 60 %
32.8
28.2
Don't know/Not sure 50.8
Completely disagree
Disagree
Somewhat agree 40.1
Fully agree .1
31.7
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Now I am going read some statements regarding the pre know to what extent you agree on each of them.
Trade Unions should not demand increase of salaries as the LTTE
Ethnic Breakdown
10.6
35.4
Muslim
13.6
15.5
32.5
2.6
28
Up-Country Tamil
11.7
12.5
18.3 7.7
22.7
40.7
0 20 %
40
43
4.2
17.5
Tamil
17.1 11.3 5.6
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ments regarding the present cost of living. Please let me n each of them.
d increase of salaries as the government is in a war with
Ethnic Breakdown
35.4 32.5
28
40.7
%
40 60
Don't know/Not sure
Completely disagree 43.2
Disagree
Somewhat agree
Fully agree 48
22.7
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Now I am going read some statements regarding the pre know to what extent you agree on each of them.
I will vote against this government in the next election du
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
9.6
15.8
40.7
16.5
17.4
29.9
Up-Country Tamil
3.1
5.9
11.6
Tamil
12.4
14.6 14.7
25.6
32.5
Sinhala
4
10.3
27.8
28.4
29.4
0 20 40
%
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ments regarding the present cost of living. Please let me n each of them.
t in the next election due to the present cost of living
Ethnic Breakdown
25.6
40.7
40 60 %
Don't know/Not sure 29.9
Completely disagree
Disagree 49.9
Somewhat agree
Fully agree
32.5
27.8
28.4
29.4
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Now I am going read some statements regarding the pre know to what extent you agree on each of them.
I will join with anyone to protest against the present regim the rising cost of living
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
12.9
17.1
18.6
2
42.
8.6
Up-Country Tamil
3.4
4.4
28
26.9
24.6
28.8
8
36.6
0 20 40
%
37.3
Tamil
15.8
17.1
18.4
24
24.7
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ments regarding the present cost of living. Please let me n each of them.
against the present regime as they are unable to control
Ethnic Breakdown
24
42.9
28
Don't know/Not sure
Completely disagree
26.9
Disagree 37.3
Somewhat agree
Fully agree
24.7
24.6
28.8
36.6
40 60 %
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JVP Split A section of the JVP broke away from their main p fictionalization of political parties. Some people believe strong government and a weak opposition; others desc democracy in the country. To what degree you agree or d
This indicates that the Government is much stronger and
National Breakdown
60
40
%
26.9
20
14.3
7.8
0
Fully agree Somewhat agree Disagree
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

way from their main party setting the latest case of s. Some people believe that this is an indication of a opposition; others describe this as a sign of a weaken at degree you agree or disagree with these sentiments?
nt is much stronger and the opposition is weaker
National Breakdown
14.3
4.7
46.3
ee Disagree Completely
disagree
Don't know/Not sure
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A section of the JVP broke away from their main p fictionalization of political parties. Some people believe strong government and a weak opposition; others desc democracy in the country. To what degree you agree or d
This indicates the signs of a weaken democracy
National Breakdown
60
40
%
20
18.1
15.3
5.8
0
Fully agree Somewhat agree Disagree
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

way from their main party setting the latest case of s. Some people believe that this is an indication of a opposition; others describe this as a sign of a weaken at degree you agree or disagree with these sentiments?
en democracy
National Breakdown
15.3
4.5
56.4
ree Disagree Completely
disagree
Don't know/Not sure
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India and Other Countries If there going to be a foreign mediated peace initiative in the best country to mediate the peace discussions with pa
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
2.3 5
9
9.1
17.6
0.7 0.9
7.7
20.9
35.2
21.9
%
57
Up-Country Tamil
2.8
11.9 0.7
2.4
1.4
8.3 Tamil
0.4
5
14.1
38.3
32.5
Sinhala
12.8
0 20 40 60
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

diated peace initiative in the near future, which would be peace discussions with parties to the conflict?
Ethnic Breakdown
2.5
57
Don't know/ Not sure
None of the above
Norway
Japan
EU Countries
38.3
USA
India
35.2
40 60 80 100
%
82.1
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To what extent you think the government of the followin to Sri Lanka.
Sinhala Response
Pakistan
-8.1
28.9
China
-8.8
25.2
USA
-19.6
16.5
Japan
-9.4
27.7
EU Countries
-32.5
7.3
29.2
-46.9 Norway
5.4
.
24.7
India
-6.8
3
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40
Tamil Response
Pakistan
-20.7
20.9
China
-20.1
16.6
USA
-20.5
23.0
Japan
-13.2
22.2
EU Countries
-17.2
29.3
Norway
-12.2
3
India
-8.8
-40 -20 0 20 4
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

vernment of the following countries is favorable/friendly
Sinhala Response
28.9
40.0
25.2
46.1
36.9
46.5
0 20 40 60
Not very favourable friendly
16.5
40.7
Favourable friendly
Very favourable friendly
27.7
43.4
7.3
29.2
.
5.4
24.7
Tamil Response
37.8 20.9
50.1
16.6
51.9
23.0
50.1
Not very favourable friendly
Favourable friendly
22.2
56.0
Very favourable friendly
29.3
.
49.3
37.0
43.5
47.1
0 20 40 60
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To what extent you think the government of the followin to Sri Lanka.
Up-Country Tamil Respo
Pakistan
-3.3
14.0
21.1
China
-0.6
12.2
21.3
USA
-4.7
16.9
21.2
Japan
-2.8
12.0
25.6
EU Countries
-8.2
10.7
27.0
.
Norway
-4.3
14.3
31.3
India
-0.9
12.5
-20 0 20 40
Muslim Respons
Pakistan
-2.3
31.2
China
-8.8
15.8
USA
-13.4
44 44
-20 0 20 40
4
-2.1
13.5
Japan
-9.0
18.2
EU Countries
-6.2
10.9
Norway
-14.9
11.4
India
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

vernment of the following countries is favorable/friendly
Country Tamil Response
14.0
21.1
12.2
21.3
Not very favourable friendly
16.9
21.2
Favourable friendly
Very favourable friendly
12.0
25.6
10.7
27.0
.
14.3
31.3
12.5
48.9
20 40 60
Muslim Response
31.2
49.0
15.8
50.7
44.3 44.4
20 40 60 80
Not very favourable friendly
13.5
47.1
Favourable friendly
Very favourable friendly
18.2
51.2
10.9
.
58.2
11.4
53.5
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Copyright © Social Indicator August 2008
How important is India's involvement in the followings?
Sinhala Response
-14.1 In development
23.2
In facing the
-21.8 country’s energy/power crisis
13.7
In the government
-23.5
war effort
23.4
In initiating peace
-25.1
with the tigers
17.4
-40 -20 0 20
Tamil Response
-12.4 In development
In facing the
-17.7 country’s energy/power crisis
In the government
-53.4
war effort
1 14.
In initiating peace
-17.9
with the tigers
-60 -40 -20 0 20
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ent in the followings?
Sinhala Response
17.4
47.3 23.2
38.8 13.7
36.2 23.4
41.6
0 20 40 60
ex
8
Not Important
Somewhat Important
Very Important
Tamil Response
-12.4
37.4
39.0
.7
.9
31.6
40.3
-20 0 20 40 60
Not Important
32.9
Somewhat Important
32.1
Very Important
19.0 14.5
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How important is India's involvement in the followings?
Up-Country Tamil Res
-2.5 In development
3
In facing the
-2.4 country’s energy/power crisis
-39.8
10.9
-2.5
-60 -40 -20 0 20
Muslim Response
20.5
3
In the government war effort
10.5
In initiating peace with the tigers
13.7
-4.7 In development
30
In facing the
-2.4 country’s energy/power crisis
In the government
-4.8
war effort
-3.5
-20 0 20
22.9
In initiating peace with the tigers
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ent in the followings?
p-Country Tamil Response
-2.5
30.7
40.9
-2.4
38.3 31.4
10.5 10.9
-2.5
13.7
58.4
0 20 40 60 80
ex
8
Not Important
Somewhat Important
Very Important
Muslim Response
30.7
41.9
33.5
Not Important
40.3
Somewhat Important
Very Important
22.9
36.1
20.5
38.7
20 40 60
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Eastern Province Elections Please state your opinion on the following statement w provincial council election in the eastern province and th after the election.
“I think the Eastern province council election was free and
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
4.6
15
18.1
25.2
37.1
Up-Country Tamil
2.7
7
8.1 8.4
Tamil
9
35
6.8
6.8
12.3
5.9
37
38.1
0 20 40 60
%
“I think the Eastern province council election is impor democracy in the east”
Ethnic Breakdown
14.5
24.3 24.8
Sinhala
53.6
Muslim
3.9
11.3
14.4
16.7
Up-Country Tamil
3.1
3.1
6.5
9.4
2.8
6.4
34
42.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
77.9
Tamil
9.3
19.5
36.5
4.1
30.5
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

e following statement with regard to the recently held eastern province and the development that took place
ncil election was free and fair”
Ethnic Breakdown
37.1
38.1
40 60 80
%
Don't know/Not sure
Completely disagree
Disagree
Somewhat agree
Fully agree
ouncil election is important turning point in improving
thnic Breakdown
77.9
73.9
5
37
53.6
60 80 100
Don't know/Not sure
Completely disagree
Disagree
Somewhat agree
Fully agree
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Please state your opinion on the following statement w provincial council election in the eastern province and th after the election.
“I think new political leadership in the eastern provinc region”
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
4.9
8.2
13.7
15.5
6.7
57.7
Up-Country Tamil
3.2
4.8 5.3
8.8
3.8 8
41.1
40.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
“I think people in the east are now much safer than election”
Ethnic Breakdwon
15.7
78
Tamil
10.1
42.7
9
15.4
22.7
Sinhala
Muslim
3.4
6.8
11
18.8
59.9
Up-Country Tamil
4.1 5
10.4
3.4
9.2
77.1
3.3
Tamil
8.5
13.4
44.5
7.8
25.8
35.6
Sinhala
36.1
0 20 40 60 80
%
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

e following statement with regard to the recently held eastern province and the development that took place
in the eastern province will be able to develop the
Ethnic Breakdown
40.3
57.7
60 80 100
%
Don't know/Not sure
Completely disagree
Disagree
Somewhat agree
Fully agree
e now much safer than before the provincial council
Ethnic Breakdwon
4.5
78
42.7
41.1
59.9
60 80 100
%
Don't know/Not sure
77.1
Completely disagree
Disagree
Somewhat agree
Fully agree
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Please state your opinion on the following statement w provincial council election in the eastern province and th after the election.
“The new leadership in the Eastern provincial council w council powers to the province”
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
7.4
11.2
65.4
4.5
52.7
2.6
0 20 40 60 80
%
“I think the present political situation is helpful to persuad solution under the provincial council system”
Ethnic Breakdown
4
3.2
12.8
Up-Country Tamil
2.7 3.5
5.2
8.1
Tamil
8.1
10.1
19.1
56
6.7
Sinhala
18.2
22.1
Muslim
3.6
5.2
10.2
14.2
66.8
Up-Country Tamil
4.3 4.9
11.1
5
6.9
22.5
77.2
2.6
Tamil
4.4
11.4
11.4
12.8
61.6
0 20 40 60 80
%
60
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

e following statement with regard to the recently held eastern province and the development that took place
tern provincial council will be able to get full provincial
Ethnic Breakdown
52.7
65.4
40 60 80 100
%
Don't know/Not sure
Completely disagree
Disagree
Somewhat agree
Fully agree
tion is helpful to persuade the people in the North for a ncil system”
Ethnic Breakdown
61.6
80.4
56
66.8
60 80 100
%
77.2
Don't know/Not sure
Completely disagree
Disagree
60
Somewhat agree
Fully agree
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Please state your opinion on the following statement w provincial council election in the eastern province and th after the election.
“I think TMVP is genuinely committed to democratic polit
Ethnic Breakdown
2.4
67.8
Muslim
2.9
6.7 7.2
15.4
Up-Country Tamil
1.7 4 4.7
9.3
11.6
14.2
18.3
53.6
0 20 40 60 80
%
“I think provincial council system is the best solution for t
Ethnic Breakdown
2.1
80.3
Tamil
6.9
10.1
13.4
13.2
56.4
Sinhala
Muslim
3.2
6.6
8.9
17
64.2
Up-Country Tamil
2.9
3.8
5.8
13.4
Tamil
10.2 10.5
8.8
12.2
25.1
51.8
0 20 40 60
%
53.2
8.2
17.9
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

e following statement with regard to the recently held eastern province and the development that took place
itted to democratic politics”
Ethnic Breakdown
53.6
67.8
60 80 100
%
Don't know/Not sure
Completely disagree
Disagree
Somewhat agree
Fully agree
is the best solution for the country's ethnic conflict”
Ethnic Breakdown
51.8
80.3
56.4
64.2
40 60 80
%
Don't know/Not sure
74.1
Completely disagree
Disagree
Somewhat agree
53.2
Fully agree
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Analysts & officials have pointed out the weaknesses wi you think these are due to;
Ethnic Breakdow
Muslim
1.5
9.7
15.9
16.5
14.3
65
Up-Country
1.3
Tamil
27.3
65.
9.4
17.7
6.5
7.4
15.3
58.3
0 20 40 60
%
49.5
Tamil
9.7
21.6
25.1
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

out the weaknesses within the provincial councils. Do
Ethnic Breakdown
58.3
65.7
40 60 80
%
Don't know/Not sure
65.4
Other
Central governments unwillingness
49.5
to devolve power Lack of capacity/manpower
Financial constraints
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Losing the UNHRC seat Sri Lanka recently lost its seat at the United Nations Hu Why do you think as the reason that we lost the seat at t
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
2.8 2.8
4.6 4.5
11.6
21.3
2.9 2.6
3.3
5.2
9.1
25.6
52.5
%
62.8
Up-Country Tamil
0.4
1.4 1.7
2.8
7.1
10.8
20.9
4.3
0 20 40 60
67.3 12.7
Tamil
3.8
7.5
9.5
11.4
31.1
46.0
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

t the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC). that we lost the seat at the UNHRC?
Ethnic Breakdown
52.5
Don't know/Not sure
62.8
Other
Loss of confidence in Sri Lankan Government by foreign states
67.3
NGO propaganda
Propaganda of some foreign states
46.0
LTTE Propaganda
Widespread human rights violations I'm not aware of this
60 80
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What do you think will be the impact of losing of UNHRC
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
0.9
6.7
14.8
29.4
28.9
6.17
10.46
19.08
24.7
35.92
0 20 40 6
%
46.7
Up-Country
2.5
27.8
Tamil
5.3
11.1
14.4
37.4
46.5
1.5
17.0
27.6
Tamil
8.2
35.1
38.8
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

pact of losing of UNHRC seat to country as whole?
Ethnic Breakdown
4
38.8
40 60
Don't know/Not sure
46.7
It will not have any impact on Sri Lanka
It will have a negative impact on the
37.4
46.5
country in general
It will have a negative impact on the government war against the LTTE 35.1
It will have a negative impact on 35.92
country's economy
It will have a bad effect on the country's international relations
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All Party Representative Committee (APRC) The APRC was created with the purpose of providin political settlement to the ethnic conflict. Some people and therefore it will not be able to deliver a comprehen the APRC is a useful mechanism that can produce a soluti
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
4.4 4.6 8
21.3
4.7
10.9
24.8
52.7
0 20 40 60 8
%
61.7
Up-Country Tamil
1.1
2.5
4.5
17.6
6.9
74.
Tamil
6.2
6.4
12.3
20.3
54.7
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

ommittee (APRC)
he purpose of providing a Southern Consensus on a c conflict. Some people say that the APRC is paralysed to deliver a comprehensive solution. Others claim that that can produce a solution.
Ethnic Breakdown
52.7
Don't know/Not sure
61.7
Has failed to either build a consensus in the South or to deliver a political package
74.3
A useful tool for consensus building but will not be able to deliver a political package 54.7
A useful tool for consensus building and will be able to deliver a political package
I'm not aware of this 60 80
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The government has recently announced that the TMVP Do you approve or disapprove of this?
Ethnic Breakdown
34.7
54.6 Muslim
2.6
5.7
37.1
Up-Country Tamil
1.6
6.3
27
34.8 14
16.6
0 20 40 60
%
47.9
Tamil
11.9
19.9 20.3
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

nounced that the TMVP been invited to join the APRC. f this?
Ethnic Breakdown
34.7
54.6
37.1
34.8
40 60 80
%
Don't know / Not sure
65.1
I am not aware of this
Disapprove
Approve
47.9
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The interim report of the APRC calls for, amongst othe of the 13th Amendment. Do you approve of this recomm
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
2.3 2.3
6.8
28.7
22
59.9
Up-Country Tamil
0
3.8
10.2
66.3
19.8
Tamil
5.8
10.9
13.1
23.8
46.5
Sinhala
5.5
6.5
23.5
42.4
0 20 40 60
%
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

calls for, amongst other things, the full implementation approve of this recommendation?
Ethnic Breakdown
42.4
59.9
60 80
Don't' know/ Not Sure
66.3
I am not aware of the contents of the 13th Amendment
I am not aware of this report
46.5
Disapprove
Approve
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The President Please indicate your level of satisfaction with President following aspects:
The maintenance of law and order
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
9.8
16.5
22.1
10.2
41.5
Up-Country Tamil
5.5
13
35.3
44.1
2
2.7
Tamil
2.2
8.5
20.7
Sinhala
3.6
5.6
10.8
39.7 40.2
0 20 40 60
%
Controlling the cost of living
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
1.3
7.5
19.5
29.7
42.1
22.9
Up-Country Tamil
2.1
5.1 5.8
5.5
7.1
25
30.1
32.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
64.1
1.8
Tamil
1.9 2
18
76
Sinhala
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

isfaction with President Rajapakse's performance in the
r
Ethnic Breakdown
41.5
65.9
39.7
No Response
Very Dissatisfied
Somewhat Dissatisfied
Somewhat Satisfied
Very Satisfied
Ethnic Breakdown
.3
35.3
40 60 80
%
44.1
40.2
42.1
0 60 80 100
%
No Response
Very Dissatisfied 64.1
Somewhat Dissatisfied
Somewhat Satisfied
Very Satisfied 76.3
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Please indicate your level of satisfaction with President following aspects:
Maintaining international relations
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
13.3
14.7
18.5
2.3
11.6
35.4
0 20 40
%
Conducting the war
Ethnic Breakdown
2.2
36.7
6.6
16.8
Up-Country Tamil
4.3
15.2
23.9
5.1
Tamil
9.8
15.9
22.7
4
4.4
Sinhala
44
Muslim
11.9
14.1
16.7
23.9
33.3
Up-Country Tamil
2.1 2.3
4.5
33.1
58.1
8.3
Tamil
2.2
13.6
Sinhala
1.2
2.5
3.1
22.8
0 20 40 60
%
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

isfaction with President Rajapakse's performance in the
s
Ethnic Breakdown
36.7
47.2
35.4
No Response
23.9
51.5
Very Dissatisfied
Somewhat Dissatisfied
Somewhat Satisfied
Very Satisfied
2.7
44
40 60
%
Ethnic Breakdown
3.3
73.7
70.3
No Response
3.1
58.1
Very Dissatisfied
Somewhat Dissatisfied
Somewhat Satisfied
Very Satisfied
40 60 80
%
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Human Rights Following figures indicate the extent to which each ethni other armed groups & journalists themselves are re abductions of the journalists.
Ethnic Breakdown
33.5
4.4 Muslim
45.6
13.9
23.4
12.7
3.6 Up-country Tamil
49
7.1
31.6
8.7
2.4 Tamil
16.7
9.5
49.2
22.2
Sinhala
7.1
10.3 18.2
30.9
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 10
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results

tent to which each ethnic group thinks the government, lists themselves are responsible for the killings and
Ethnic Breakdown
.1
4.4 3.9
23.4
12.7
3.6
18.2
30.9
60% 80% 100%
Do not Know or not of the listed parties Government 31.6
8.7
Armed Group
9.2
22.2
Government and armed groups
Government, Armed groups and journalists
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
K
EY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPM
APRIL
• In the aftermath of April 7 suicide attack which killed top Minis and injured more than 83, the International Community reiter political solution to end the longstanding ethnic conflict in Sri L States and Australia in separate statements called for an end to talks as the only way forward if peace was to return to Sri Lanka
• In another dramatic turn of events following the defection of 1 Group Leader Wimal Weerawansa, the vehicles of two dissiden unidentified gang, from the official parliament vehicle park on A assaulted the policemen on duty and removed the vehicles, so 2008
• JVP Leader Somawansa Amarasinghe on April 9 charged there w relating to financial irregularities, against Parliamentary Group L conspiracy against the party. No doubt about it. But the prob comes from,” he said. - Daily Mirror April 10, 2008
• A high level UN panel was in Sri Lanka this week to assess the s operating in the North and East of the country, a UN officia Independent Panel on Safety and Security of UN Personne assessment of the security affecting its staff. - Daily Mirror Apr
• Norway is urging India to play a more proactive role in the Sri L Government and the LTTE and it stands ready to fully support envoy, Jan Hansson Bauer also insists it is still not the end of the to the conflict and says they will resume their mediation if an in Lanka. - Daily Mirror April 15, 2008
• The government in a move to control the escalating prices of l wholesale and retail prices from midnight April 16. A gazette n night. - Daily Mirror April 17, 2008
• The Bribery Commission on April 16 revealed that inflation had bribes by various persons and was likely to become a serious conducted by the Commission had revealed that the quanta of b government departments and offices and among the law enfo surprising amounts during the past few months. - Daily Mirror
• The damaging battle between the Somawansa and Weerawansa in the provinces with both parties vigorously seeking the sup Island, April 19, 2008
• A major French aid agency said on April 19 it had decided to wit International Independent Group of Eminent Persons (IIGEP) proceedings of the Presidential Commission of Inquiry (CoI). Th Action against Hunger said it considered the presence of the credibility in the investigations into the killing of 17 of its sta whether the CoI would respect international standards. - Daily M
• All Party Representative Committee (APRC) Chairman Tissa V would propose a mixture of changes to the Constitution inclu Minister Vitarana said parties involved in the talks had reached said the final report resolving disagreements would be submitted Daily Mirror April 21, 2008
∗ For the purpose of accuracy, un-dated indicators (in th “yesterday/today/tomorrow” are edited to indicate their exact dat
Copyright © Social Indicator August 2008

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55
IONAL DEVELOPMENTS APRIL
2008*
dated indicators (in the reproduced news items) such as o indicate their exact date. 8
2008 –
JULY
APRIL
k which killed top Minister Jeyaraj Fernandopulle and 14 others tional Community reiterated the urgent need for a negotiated g ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka. The European Union, the United nts called for an end to hostilities and the resumption of peace as to return to Sri Lanka. . - Daily Mirror April 8, 2008 owing the defection of 11 JVP MPs, including JVP Parliamentary vehicles of two dissident JVPers were taken away forcibly by an iament vehicle park on April 9. The gang had entered the park, emoved the vehicles, sources said. - Daily Mirror April 10,
April 9 charged there were serious allegations, including some t Parliamentary Group Leader Wimal Weerawansa. “There is a t about it. But the problem here is we do not know where it
pril 10, 2008 this week to assess the security and challenges faced by UN staff e country, a UN official told the Daily Mirror April 11. The urity of UN Personnel and Premises Word wide made an taff. - Daily Mirror April 12, 2008 roactive role in the Sri Lankan conflict by mediating between the ds ready to fully support such an initiative. Oslo’s special peace is still not the end of the road for the Norwegian’s as facilitators e their mediation if an invitation is extended by the parties in Sri
the escalating prices of locally produced rice imposed maximum ht April 16. A gazette notification to this effect was issued last
vealed that inflation had affected even the amounts demanded as ly to become a serious problem in the future. A recent study aled that the quanta of bribes regularly solicited by individuals in and among the law enforcement authorities had increased by
onths. - Daily Mirror April 17, 2008 wansa and Weerawansa factions is likely to spread to JVP groups orously seeking the support of Provincial Councillors. – The
19 it had decided to withdraw from Sri Lanka consequent to the minent Persons (IIGEP) quitting its mandate to oversee the sion of Inquiry (CoI). The Paris based Action Contre la Faim or ed the presence of the IIGEP as an essential condition for the e killing of 17 of its staff in Mutur in 2006 and now doubted ional standards. - Daily Mirror April 20, 2008 PRC) Chairman Tissa Vitarana said on April 21the committee o the Constitution including unitary and federal characteristics. n the talks had reached consensus on 90% of the proposals. He ents would be submitted to President Mahinda Rajapaksa soon. -

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• A leading elections monitoring body alleged April 22 that the gov elections campaigning, as violence related to the upcoming Ea Peoples’ Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL) identified involved in the activities, saying he had used a state vehicle to t rally. - Daily Mirror April 23, 2008
• The government, on April 22, slammed the International Indepe for its inefficiency and inadequacy in conducting its duties in the c been a plot against the government. The government also c Bhagwati to give an explanation to President Mahinda Rajapak experts had misled the public and the government and avoided mandate. - Daily Mirror April 23, 2008
• The International Independent Group of Eminent Persons on A then an independent body under the purview of the President investigations without involvement of the Attorney General’s d IIGEP said funding by foreign governments, initially budgeted for original mandate of the CoI would have been extended if the I Daily Mirror April 23, 2008
• An eighty percent voter turnout had been observed at the posta elections that was concluded April 29-- according to Peopl (PAFFREL), Chairman Kingsley Rodrigo.Speaking to Daily Mirror the voting concluded on a peaceful note with no reported case 2008
MAY
• The Investigations Unit of the Piliyandala police have taken into bus bombing at Piliyandala, together with two accomplices. One the other a Tamil youth from Nuwara Eliya. Piliyandala Police Kilinochchi. - Daily Mirror, May 1, 2008
• The JVP on May 2 insisted it would strongly oppose any All P proposals for a final solution to the ethnic conflict if the propo and Federal models. - Daily Mirror, May 3, 2008
• Security forces are investigating the possibility of the LTTE using other international organizations to facilitate its covert operation
• A subtle move by the TMVP to issue special identity card throu Trincomalee residents came under fire from the UNP-SLMC allia way for election malpractices. UNP General Secretary Tissa distributing the forged identity cards saying they were issued Mirror, May 5, 2008
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa ended weeks of speculation by midnight May 6. The new sessions will commence on June 5, 20 the President, by the powers vested in him under Article 70 Parliament. - Daily Mirror, May 7, 2008
• The TNA on May 8 requested the people in the East to def Provincial Council election to be held tomorrow. TNA Gener merger of the northern and eastern provinces was the corne breached this very foundation by de-merging the two provinces 2008
• Subsequent to the rights violation petition filed by Campaign f Supreme Court on May 9 directed the Elections Commissio Provincial Council election. Bench comprising Justices Asoka de said it was the duty of the Elections Commissioner to condu petition asked that a direction be given to the Elections Commis Chief to prevent the use of arms by unauthorized groups and election violence by Pillaiyan Group. - Daily Mirror May 10, 20
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ged April 22 that the government was misusing state property for ted to the upcoming Eastern polls began to see a steady rise. ns (PAFFREL) identified an influential presidential advisor as being used a state vehicle to transport Buddhist monks for an election
the International Independent Group of Eminent Persons (IIGEP) ducting its duties in the country, stating that the IIGEP had merely The government also called upon IIGEP Chairman Justice P.N. sident Mahinda Rajapaksa, as to why the group of international government and avoided carrying out its duties, according to its
8 f Eminent Persons on April 22 said if justice was to be ensured urview of the Presidential Commission of Inquiry should handle he Attorney General’s department. In its final media briefing, the nts, initially budgeted for little over a year in accordance with the e been extended if the IIGEP chose to continue its operations. -
en observed at the postal voting for the Eastern Provincial Council 9-- according to People’s Action for Free and Fair Elections Speaking to Daily Mirror from Trincomalee, Mr. Rodrigo said that e with no reported cases of violence. - Daily Mirror April 30,
MAY
a police have taken into custody the main suspect in last April 25 h two accomplices. One of the accomplices is a Sinhala youth and Eliya. Piliyandala Police said the main suspect was a resident of 08 rongly oppose any All Party Representative Committee (APRC) nic conflict if the proposals were based on a mixture of Unitary ay 3, 2008 sibility of the LTTE using cover of the United Nations and various litate its covert operations. – The Island, May 3, 2008
ecial identity card through the Grama Niladaris to Batticaloa and from the UNP-SLMC alliance which said the move would pave the eneral Secretary Tissa Attanayake alleged that the TMVP was saying they were issued by the Elections Department. - Daily
eeks of speculation by proroguing Parliament with effect from commence on June 5, 2008, informed sources said. They said that n him under Article 70 (1) of the Constitution, had prorogued 08
ople in the East to defeat the government and its allies at the tomorrow. TNA General Secretary Mavai Senathirajah said the rovinces was the corner stone for peace, yet the government rging the two provinces after 18 years. - Daily Mirror, May 9,
tion filed by Campaign for Free and Fair Elections (CAFFE), the he Elections Commissioner to ensure a free and fair Eastern prising Justices Asoka de Silva, N.G. Amaratunga and K. Sripavan ommissioner to conduct a free and fair election. CAFFE in its to the Elections Commissioner, Defence Secretary and the Police nauthorized groups and prevent alleged acts of intimidation and aily Mirror May 10, 2008
8

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• The government on May 12 said the new Eastern Provincial C including those relating to the subjects of Police Powers and L as defined by the interim proposals of the APRC. - Daily Mirr
• The JVP dissidents led by MPs Wimal Weerawansa and Nanda the Elections Commissioner's Secretariat to register their ne National Freedom Front (NFF) bearing the colour gold and t five pods of paddy that have stars at each end in five corners. -
• Maheshwari Velayudan, Consultant to Social Services and So was gunned down by three armed men, believed to be LTTErs May 14, 2008
• Given the prevailing conflict, certain individuals have been abd have been subjected to torture and, indeed, deaths have occ circumstances, Attorney General C. R. de Silva told the UN May 15, 2008
• TMVP leader Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan alias Pillayan was the Eastern Province. - Daily Mirror May 17, 2008
• All chief ministers of the eight provincial councils including Eastern Province Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan have de Government that they be vested with full powers in accor Island, May 21, 2008
• The government on May 22 downplayed the loss of its seat at and said the fact that it garnered 101 votes at May 21 elec Human Rights Minister Mahinda Samarsinghe said that althou the Council, the number of votes obtained indicated a clear vo Sri Lanka’s ability and competence to serve as a Council memb
• A large group of media personnel including many senior ed protest the inhuman and barbaric attack on The Nation news Daily Mirror May 24, 2008
• The United States has said though Sri Lanka has the necessar with the human rights violation, the government must do mor and having laws alone was not enough without ensuring ac Mirror May 26, 2008
• Eight persons were killed and 62 others injured when a bo packed office train at Dehiwela yesterday evening. – The Islan
• International Non-Governmental Organisations (INGOs) op operations in the district following the escalation of violenc (Lanka) said it had issued a travel advisory to its staff and res employees were surrounded and assaulted by a mob in Ka Mirror May 28, 2008
• The government has slapped a new tax on petrol imports as with the steep rise in fuel prices in the local market. – The Isl
• At least six civilians were killed and 20 injured when the LTTE areas near Jaffna town while more than 12 were killed in Chiraththivu Island, a Defence Ministry official said. - Daily Mi
JUNE
• The Presidential Secretariat has directed the Presidential Co serious violations of human rights to suspend recording evide living abroad, CoI Chairman Nissanka Udalagama said June 2. -
• Chief Justice Sarath N Silva on June 9 raised alarm over a con till the salary anomaly issue of the judiciary was resolved. The a fundamental rights violation petition demanding a salary i hearing. -Daily Mirror, June 10, 2008
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ew Eastern Provincial Council would be vested with wide powers, s of Police Powers and Land envisaged under the 13th Amendment
the APRC. - Daily Mirror May 13, 2008 Weerawansa and Nandana Gunatillake produced the documents at riat to register their new party on May 12. The party named the ng the colour gold and the emblem, the crown. The crown bears ach end in five corners. - Daily Mirror May 13, 2008
Social Services and Social Welfare Minister Douglas Devananda, n, believed to be LTTErs, May 13 evening in Jaffna. - Daily Mirror
individuals have been abducted, some have disappeared, a number indeed, deaths have occurred under very peculiar and suspicious R. de Silva told the UN Human Rights Council. - Daily Mirror
kanthan alias Pillayan was sworn-in May 16 as the Chief Minister of
May 17, 2008 incial councils including the recently elected chief minister of the andrakanthan have decided to forward a resolution to the ith full powers in accordance with the 13th amendment. – The
ed the loss of its seat at the United Nations Human Rights Council 1 votes at May 21 election in New York was in itself a victory. arsinghe said that although Sri Lanka was not elected to serve on ained indicated a clear vote of confidence by UN member states in serve as a Council member. - Daily Mirror May 23, 2008 ncluding many senior editors took to the streets on May 23 to tack on The Nation newspaper’s Associate Editor Keith Noyahr. -
i Lanka has the necessary institutional framework in place to deal overnment must do more to stop abductions and ‘disappearances’ gh without ensuring actual protection of human rights. - Daily
thers injured when a bomb ripped through a compartment of a day evening. – The Island, May 27, 2008 ganisations (INGOs) operating in Batticaloa have curtailed their he escalation of violence and tension in the area. World Vision isory to its staff and restricted their movements after three of its saulted by a mob in Kathankudy, Batticaloa on May 26. - Daily
tax on petrol imports as the country struggles to come to terms
local market. – The Island, May 29, 2008 0 injured when the LTTE launched an artillery attack on populated than 12 were killed in a Tiger attack on a military camp in the y official said. - Daily Mirror May 30, 2008
JUNE
cted the Presidential Commission of Inquiry investigating cases of suspend recording evidence via video conferencing from witnesses Udalagama said June 2. - Daily Mirror, June 04, 2008
raised alarm over a conspiracy to oust him but vowed to stay on iciary was resolved. The Chief Justice made these comments when n demanding a salary increase for the judges was taken up for 8
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• The government has reportedly rejected a request made by a member states to travel to the Eastern Province, as the de appointed Eastern Chief Minister Sivanesathurai Chandrakanth
• The JVP-controlled National Trade Union Centre (NTUC) estate sector trade unions yesterday threatened to launch a month demanding a 5,000-rupee salary increase to meet the so 17, 2008
• The Jathika Nidahas Peramuna is planning to contest the forth Provincial Council elections on its own -- once the Elections leader Wimal Weerawansa MP said June 18. - Daily Mirror, J
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa said that he was determined t against the people of the country. “I do not wish at all to wag the President told a group of leaders who called on him at Tem LTTE lays down arms he will be ready to work with them to a a statement following the meeting. - Daily Mirror, June 25, 2
• The TMVP is to put forward political proposals to the All P demanding police, land, educational and financial powers for t devolution when evolving a political solution to the ethnic conf
• The Jathika Hela Urumaya on June 27 announced that it d Provincial Council election claiming that PC polls were not sig decision was taken following a JHU Central Committee mee Ellawala Medhananda Thera, the party said in a statement. - Da
• Chief Justice Sarath N. Silva said on June 27 that the Judiciary confidence of the common man irrespective of racial, relig gathering after the ceremonial opening of the new Labour Trib Court, Mr. Silva said since taking up office he initiated a serie goals. - Daily Mirror, June 28, 2008
• The military on June 29 said the strategically important area in comprising an area of 120 square kilometers was completely b June 30, 2008
• India has set up a mechanism with Sri Lanka to establish co bilateral issues. India and Sri Lanka have formed an informal the security situation in the island nation as well as on bilater said. -Daily Mirror, June 30, 2008
JULY
• A local political officer attached to the British High Commi Lanka Press Institute were brutally assaulted by unknown assa British High Commissioner to condemn the incident and dem 2008
• The Sri Lanka Press Institute (SLPI) together with the New reward of five million rupees for information leading to th assailants of SLPI’s Acting Manager, Advocacy and Sri Lan Coordinator Namal Perera on July 2. - Daily Mirror, July 03
• A massive search operation was conducted in Modera on July custody, the police said. Meanwhile Modera Police OIC C treatment and harassment of the civilians during the operation they were dragged out of their beds in the early hours of th lined up on a nearby ground and videoed, all in the name of 03, 2008
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ted a request made by a delegation from the European Union three tern Province, as the delegation had refused to meet the newly nesathurai Chandrakanthan. - Daily Mirror, June 14, 2008 Union Centre (NTUC) comprising some 400 public, private and threatened to launch a countrywide one-day token strike next y increase to meet the soaring cost of living. - Daily Mirror, June
ing to contest the forthcoming Sabaragamuwa and North Central n -- once the Elections Commissioner recognises the party, party ne 18. - Daily Mirror, June 19, 2008 at he was determined to defeat terrorism and not wage a war do not wish at all to wage a war against the people of the country,” who called on him at Temple Trees June 24. He also said that if the to work with them to achieve peace, the President’s Office said in aily Mirror, June 25, 2008 l proposals to the All Party Representatives’ Committee (APRC) nd financial powers for the provinces, which it cited as the unit of
lution to the ethnic conflict. - Daily Mirror, June 26, 2008 27 announced that it decided not to contest the forthcoming at PC polls were not significant from the party’s point of view The Central Committee meeting held under the chairmanship of Ven
said in a statement. - Daily Mirror, June 28, 2008 une 27 that the Judiciary could function properly only if it won the espective of racial, religious or language barriers. Addressing a g of the new Labour Tribunal Building at the Kaduwela Magistrates office he initiated a series of programmes aimed at achieving these
egically important area in the Mannar District, known as 'rice bowl' meters was completely brought under its control. - Daily Mirror,
ri Lanka to establish contact on the security situation and other ave formed an informal mechanism to remain in regular touch on tion as well as on bilateral issues, an Indian foreign ministry official
JULY
the British High Commission and a journalist attached to the Sri saulted by unknown assailants in Colombo on June 30 forcing the mn the incident and demand for justice. - Daily Mirror, July 01,
together with the Newspaper Publishers on July 2 announced a formation leading to the apprehension and prosecution of the Advocacy and Sri Lanka College of Journalism (SLCJ) Course - Daily Mirror, July 03, 2008 ucted in Modera on July 2, with over ten Tamil civilians taken into Modera Police OIC C. Iriyadeniya denied allegations of shabby ians during the operation. Civilians in the area had complained that in the early hours of the morning by Police and Army personnel, eoed, all in the name of a search operation. - Daily Mirror, July
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• The United States has reiterated its concerns over the huma pressures being put on the media in the country. The South Secretary Evan Feigenbaum, who was in Sri Lanka on June 30 regular, ongoing consultations with the Sri Lankan Govern Embassy in Colombo said. - Daily Mirror, July 04, 2008
• Both media and political circles were abuzz last evening (July one-time TMVP leader, had been deported to Sri Lanka an spending nearly six months in a British jail. Informed sources Airlines flight (UL 504) from London on Wednesday, escorte to be from Scotland Yard. Karuna was handed over to the Sr He had arrived using a passport with the name ‘Anthony’. - D
• Elections for the North Central and Sabaragamuwa Provincial Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake announced on July 4. -
• The Army’s 59 Division engaged in an offensive on the Weli-O the LTTE’s strategic ‘Michael’ base yesterday (July 4) afternoon
• The main Opposition UNP said on July 4 that according government institutions had incurred massive losses running in these reports, UNP front-liner Ravi Karunanayake told journa suffered a loss of Rs. 2.7 billion, the Railway Department Rs billion and the Sri Lanka Transport Board Rs. 3.5 billion. - Dail
• International human rights groups on July 4 deplored the re Muralitharan alias Karuna Amman from Britain and urged Sr abuses committed by him as an LTTE leader and later as the le had an alleged war criminal in its custody for six months opportunity to bring to justice a Tamil Tiger leader accountab British government blew it,” Human Rights Watch Asia direc 05, 2008
• Sri Lankan Ambassador designate to the United States Jaliya W on July 6 claimed that one of his priorities as the country’s top effective campaign to counter false LTTE propaganda. – Daily
• The government on July 7 insisted that any future peace talks Tamil political parties in the country and not solely with the possibility stating that it would enter negotiations with only th Norwegians and not with the presence of any other political 08, 2008
• The Turkish Chief of Staff Gen. Yasar Buyukanit said that the running guns to the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka. He also said te security in the age of globalization. - Daily Mirror, July 09, 2
• The JVP yesterday claimed its token strike today, backed by th 800 trade unions affiliated to the National Trade Union Allia including essential services such as power supply, transport, h July 10, 2008
• Four people including a 9-year-old child and a woman we suspected LTTE cadres fired at a CTB bus travelling along the the Yala National Park, police said. - Daily Mirror, July 12, 2
• The government on July 11 scotched rumours about plans to the upcoming South Asian Association for Regional Cooperati House Leader and senior Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva w Ratnayake in parliament on whether 1,500 Indian troops had la published by the Indian based Observer Research Foundation.
• STRASBOURG, France -Reuters - The European Court of H Tamil man denied asylum in Britain could not be sent back to risk of torture there. The ruling could have implications for expulsion from Britain to Sri Lanka. July 17 ruling centred o Britain in 1999 citing fears of ill-treatment by the Sri Lankan au seven years on suspicion of involvement with the rebel Tamil T
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concerns over the human rights situation in Sri Lanka, as well as the the country. The South and Central Asian Affairs Deputy Assistant in Sri Lanka on June 30 and July 1, as part of the U.S. Government’s the Sri Lankan Government, had raised these concerns, the US rror, July 04, 2008
abuzz last evening (July 3) with the news that Karuna Amman, the ported to Sri Lanka and was likely to re-enter the limelight after sh jail. Informed sources said that Karuna had boarded a Sri Lankan on Wednesday, escorted by four British officials who were believed s handed over to the Sri Lankan police upon his arrival in Sri Lanka. the name ‘Anthony’. - Daily Mirror, July 04, 2008 abaragamuwa Provincial Councils will be held on August 23, Elections e announced on July 4. - Daily Mirror, July 05, 2008
offensive on the Weli-Oya front gained another victory by capturing terday (July 4) afternoon. - Daily News, July 05, 2008 n July 4 that according to Finance Ministry reports four major massive losses running into billions of rupees last year. Quoting from arunanayake told journalists that the Sri Lanka Ports Authority had Railway Department Rs. 4.2 billion, the Postal Department Rs. 2.2 ard Rs. 3.5 billion. - Daily Mirror, July 05, 2008 n July 4 deplored the release and deportation of Vinayagamoorthy om Britain and urged Sri Lanka to prosecute him for human rights leader and later as the leader of the TMVP. “The British government ustody for six months but failed to file charges. This was a rare il Tiger leader accountable for horrific human rights abuses, but the Rights Watch Asia director Brad Adams said. - Daily Mirror, July
the United States Jaliya Wickremasuriya on the eve of his departure ities as the country’s top diplomat in the US would be to map out an TE propaganda. – Daily News, July 07, 2008 t any future peace talks would take place with the participation of all and not solely with the LTTE. The LTTE however ruled out such a negotiations with only the government, through the facilitation of the ce of any other political party in the country. - Daily Mirror, July
r Buyukanit said that the terrorist organisation PKK/Kongra-Gel was ri Lanka. He also said terrorism was the biggest threat to peace and
aily Mirror, July 09, 2008 trike today, backed by the UNP’s Jathika Sevaka Sangamaya and over tional Trade Union Alliance, would cripple the entire public service wer supply, transport, healthcare and water supply. - Daily Mirror,
child and a woman were killed and 25 injured on July 11 when bus travelling along the Buttala-Kataragama main road that borders aily Mirror, July 12, 2008 rumours about plans to bring Indian Troops to provide security for n for Regional Cooperation summit scheduled to be held this month. imal Siripala de Silva was replying to a question by JVP MP Bimal ,500 Indian troops had landed in Sri Lanka as reported in a document er Research Foundation. - Daily Mirror, July 12, 2008
e European Court of Human Rights ruled on July 17 that an ethnic uld not be sent back to his native Sri Lanka because he would be at uld have implications for hundreds of other Tamils trying to avoid July 17 ruling centred on a 33-year-old man who sought asylum in ent by the Sri Lankan authorities, who had detained him six times in nt with the rebel Tamil Tigers. - Daily Mirror, July 18, 2008
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• A full scale battle raged in Kopannaweediya (Slave Island) on Ju unauthorized structures beside the railway line clashed with U police who came there to demolish their houses. The police te who were protesting and refusing to move out of their house part of the security process for the upcoming SAARC summit.
• The LTTE has declared a unilateral ceasefire to coincide wit several heads of state from South Asia, LTTE military wing sp Mirror. The ceasefire will be in effect from Saturday, July 26 2008
• The government on July 22 snubbed the LTTE’s unilateral summit and vowed not to give the Tigers any breathing space surprise declaration of a ceasefire by carrying out sea and a were reportedly killed. - Daily Mirror, July 23, 2008
• The Sri Lankan Government said on July 23 that the stabiliza advantageous to Sri Lanka’s ongoing military exercise. Comm Prime Minister Manmohan Singh winning the trust vote in Secretary and senior Minister Maithripala Sirisena told a me about the outcome. - Daily Mirror, July 24, 2008
• The main opposition UNP said on July 24 that the party ha Security Council (NSC) which met on Wednesday had decide air raids from Sunday. UNP front-liner Lakshman Kiriella asked was correct because it had earlier refused to accept the LT during the period of the SAARC summit. - Daily Mirror, July
• A visiting European Union delegation on July 25 came down ha rights abuses being committed in the country with its chief doubts that Sri Lanka will qualify for the GSP Plus trade c completing a visit to the country, the EU delegation was of th the TNA and also expressed disappointment as it could no purpose of its tour to Sri Lanka, on the grounds of last minut 26, 2008
• While claiming the ongoing military activity in the north is on right to life of all people, President Mahinda Rajapaksa on weakened considerably the striking capabilities of the LTTE. “ more nothing less than a humanitarian mission to reaffirm the Muslims and others,” the President said addressing a massiv Mirror, July 28, 2008
• All Party Representative Committee Chairman and Minister T the TNA for the APRC only after reaching consensus with th the resolution of the North-East problem. Professor Vithar European Union delegation saying the APRC was incomplete 28, 2008
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ediya (Slave Island) on July 18 when the residents living in so called ilway line clashed with Urban Development Authority officials and eir houses. The police tear-gassed and baton charged the residents move out of their houses in an operation that police described as coming SAARC summit. - Daily Mirror, July 19, 2008 ceasefire to coincide with the SAARC summit to be attended by ia, LTTE military wing spokesman Rassiah Illentheriyan told Daily ct from Saturday, July 26 to August 4. - Daily Mirror, July 21,
d the LTTE’s unilateral ceasefire declaration during the SAARC igers any breathing space. It underlined its response to the LTTE’s carrying out sea and air attacks in which some 22 Tiger cadres r, July 23, 2008 July 23 that the stabilization of the Indian Government would be military exercise. Commenting on the Indian Government led by ning the trust vote in the Lok Sabha on July 22, SLFP General ipala Sirisena told a media conference that Sri Lanka was happy July 24, 2008 uly 24 that the party had received information that the National Wednesday had decided to suspend military operations including r Lakshman Kiriella asked the government whether this information efused to accept the LTTE’s unilateral declaration of a ceasefire
it. - Daily Mirror, July 25, 2008 on July 25 came down hard on the government over alleged human e country with its chief even going to the extent of expressing r the GSP Plus trade concessions. Speaking to the media after EU delegation was of the view the APRC was incomplete without ointment as it could not visit Trincomalee, which was the main he grounds of last minute security concerns. - Daily Mirror, July
ctivity in the north is only a ‘humanitarian mission’ to reaffirm the Mahinda Rajapaksa on July 27 said security forces have already pabilities of the LTTE. “What is happening in the North is nothing mission to reaffirm the right to life of all people, Sinhalese, Tamils, said addressing a massive election rally in Anuradhapura. - Daily
Chairman and Minister Tissa Vitharana said July 27 he would invite aching consensus with the UNP regarding the political package for oblem. Professor Vitharana was commenting on a statement by e APRC was incomplete without the TNA. - Daily Mirror, July
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Copyright © Social Indicator August 2008
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in August 2
DISTRICT TOTA Colombo 210 Gampaha 190 Kalutara 105 Kandy 123 Matale 41 Nuwara Eliya 68 Galle 93 Matara 71 Hambantota 48 Batticaloa 48 Ampara 57 Trincomalee 33 Kurunegala 142 Puttlam 65 Anuradhapura 68 Polonnaruwa 34 Badulla 73 Moneragala 37 Ratnapura 95 Kegalle 71 NATIONAL 1672
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in August 20
ETHNICITY TOTA Sinhala 1099 Tamil 126 (Convenien Up-Country Tamil 195 Muslim 252 NATIONAL 1672

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Annex
istribution in August 2008
TOTAL 210 190 105 123 41 68 93 71 48 48 57 33 142 65 68 34 73 37 95 71 1672
tribution in August 2008
TOTAL 1099 126 (Convenient Sample) 195 252 1672
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Copyright © Social Indicator August 2008
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Hence, from conducted bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI de make the PCI more efficient.
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire that is ad 1300 respondents during each phase of the study. This sample is diversity within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is u the peace process is influenced by a number of factors, the ethnic influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in this m
The total sample is distributed amongst 17 administrative districts and East provinces due to the escalation of violence in the mont assigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the populatio are over sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sa the sample.
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district o particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is se the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama Niladha randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the ‘Grama N published by the Department of Census and Statistics as the sampl
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensure a maximum enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten interview the enumerator is advised to select a starting point randomly random walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure the ran of urban areas, the interviewer is instructed to skip a house while in the interview-taking place at every alternative household. As t chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus ensuring th equal chance of being selected to the PCI sample.
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error m noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not suppo level of precision.

x
ence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public rocess over time it is essential that the study be conducted e study. Hence, from May 2001 to February 2004, PCI was rch 2005 onwards, SI decided to conduct the study quarterly to
questionnaire that is administered to a sample of approximately he study. This sample is adequate to capture the minimum ethnic eldwork. Although it is undeniable that an individual’s opinion on ber of factors, the ethnic factor, which is the most important and
accommodated in this model.
7 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, excluding the North of violence in the months prior to the survey. The sample size ly equal to the population proportions. However, some districts ogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting
nicity within a district only if the population proportion of that nal Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit using hile the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected it using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 1996’ nd Statistics as the sample frame.
and ensure a maximum dispersion of the sample within a DS, aximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a given GND, starting point randomly and proceed with interviews using the n order to assure the random selection of households. In the case ted to skip a house while selecting the households, thus resulting ernative household. As the final sampling unit, the respondent is H’ grid thus ensuring that each member of the household has an sample.
bject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is I model does not support the regional level analysis at the same
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Special Methodological Note:
The Tamil Community from the district of Colombo and the Sinh communities from the Eastern province were sampled using a method of sampling was used due to the security situation pre enumerators were instructed to select the particular household accessible. Thereby, the results presented in this report that refe community cannot be generalised as they are not representative o

x
:
f Colombo and the Sinhala, Tamil, Muslim and Up Country Tamil were sampled using a “convenient” sampling technique. This e security situation prevailing in the country. Accordingly, the he particular household by virtue of the ease with which it was d in this report that refers to the Eastern Province and the Tamil are not representative of the entire population in Sri Lanka.
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