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An Opinio = حبالہ
Peace Confider
ALSO N THIS WAVE...
NEW EMERGENCY REGULATIONS
TRADE UNIONSTRIKES
THE GOVERNMENT OF PRESIDENT MAHINDA RAJAPAKSE
CROSSOVERS
HUMAN RIGHTSABUSES
ALLPARTY REPRESENTATIVE COMMITTEE (APRC)

In Poll On Peace
Ce lindex (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
FEBRUARY 2007
Social Indicator

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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMEN
• FINDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX
(PCI) T
OP
-L
INE
R
ESULTS
IMPORTANT ISSUES
SOLUTIONS
END TO THE CONFLICT
LIKELIHOOD OF WAR
EXPANDING MILITARY OFFENSIVE
SECURITY SITUATION
CONFIDENCE
CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT (CFA)
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION (SLMM)
FOREIGN INVOLVEMENT
• P
OLITICAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
THE GOVERNMENT OF PRESIDENT MAHINDA RAJAP
CROSSOVERS
ALL PARTY REPRESENTATIVE COMMITTEE (APRC)
TRADE UNION STRIKE
CORRUPTION IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR
NEW EMERGENCY REGULATIONS
HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES
KILLINGS AND ABDUCTIONS
COMMISSION OF INQUIRY
• ANNEX

ex
01 IONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 08 PCI) 15
15
16
17
18
SIVE 19
20
21
A) 25
ION (SLMM) 29
31
ENT MAHINDA RAJAPAKSE 36
40
COMMITTEE (APRC) 43
46
SECTOR 47
NS 49
52
54
55
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Copyright © Social Indicator February 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I
NTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop
public confidence in the peace process using a set of s
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set o
economic and political developments in order to gauge p
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will pro
useful barometer of Sri Lankan polity’s opinions, and ens
given due importance and incorporated into the policy deb
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The survey is carried out using a structured questionnai
interviews amongst a 1300 randomly selected sample.
administrative districts, excluding the North and East due
weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of
surveyed.
This is the twenty fifth wave of the PCI study, which w
publication presents only the top-line results of the Februa
The results of these twenty five waves offer us data for a
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions o
developments. The results are subjected to a 3% margin of
** This particular wave of the PCI only covers the Sinhal
communities in the areas outside North and East.

Index
I
NTRODUCTION
-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
rocess using a set of standardized questions, which remain
other is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
ents in order to gauge public opinion on the peace process,
m one wave to another.
a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
olity’s opinions, and ensure that such collective opinions are
rated into the policy debate.
a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
domly selected sample. This survey was conducted in 17
the North and East due to the escalation of violence. Data is
ographic composition of the districts in which the sample was
the PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This
line results of the February 2007 survey.
aves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public
ging from perceptions of war and peace to current political
jected to a 3% margin of error.
I only covers the Sinhala, Muslim and the Up-Country Tamil
North and East.
2007
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• The government took a historical step on November 6 when appointment of a Commission of Inquiry into 15 incidents of alle year. The aim of the Committee, which will be in operation for come forward and give evidence to the Committee of the crime 2006)
• The latest corruption perceptions index launched by Transparen in public sector corruption in Sri Lanka this year as compared to ten, with zero indicating high levels of perceived corruption corruption Sri Lanka has been slapped with 3.1 for this year in c year. (Daily Mirror on 08 November 2006)
• The Civil Monitoring Committee on extra judicial killings Commission on Human Rights is an incomplete one as it is only incidences ignoring over 53 disappearances that have taken plac Committee Member Mano Ganeshan told that the presidential c selected incidences. (Daily Mirror on 09 November 2006)
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa on 12 November assured an imm links between the government security forces and the Karuna visiting special advisor to the UN representative for children conclusion of a 10 day fact finding visit to the country specia November there was “strong and credible” evidence that certain are supporting and sometimes participating in the abductions Karuna faction. “I briefed the President on my findings. The Pre of complicity and participation of the security forces in the forc fully investigated and those responsible held accountable,” Mr. 2006)
• The government on 14 November expressed regret over cer Rock, Special Advisor to the UN Special Representative for Ch the country on 14 November concluding a ten day fact findin troops of recruiting child soldiers for the Karuna faction. (Daily M
• The LTTE on 17 November rejected a call from President Mahin military announced it killed 27 insurgents. ''He must be joking, Ilanthirayan, told The Associated Press on 17 November fr Rajapakse in his budget speech on 16 November had urged the arms, and ''work toward promoting peace, democracy and deve Lanka.'' (Daily Mirror on 18 November 2006)
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa on 19 November directed govern the transport of essential goods to Jaffna by road using the A9, November 2006)
• The death of 5 students of a farm school in Vavuniya has arouse Mission on 19 November said according to eyewitnesses and ini soldiers had rounded up the students and fired indiscriminate 2006)
• The government on 20 November vowed to go ahead with pl humanitarian grounds, dismissing LTTE claims that the move wa were meeting in Washington on 20 November and 21 Novembe
• Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe on 23 Novembe Committee that the UNP would join only the latter half methodology of power devolution would be taken up. (Daily Mir
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
K
EY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
N
∗ For the purpose of accuracy, un-dated indicators (in th “yesterday/today/tomorrow” are edited to indicate their exact d

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AL DEVELOPMENTS
N
OVEMBER
2006 – F
EBRUARY
2007*
on November 6 when President Mahinda Rajapaksa approved the y into 15 incidents of alleged human rights violations since August last will be in operation for one year is to encourage fresh witnesses to Committee of the crimes committed. (Daily Mirror on 07 November
launched by Transparency International (TI) shows a steady increase this year as compared to the last two years. On a scale from zero to f perceived corruption and ten indicating low levels of perceived with 3.1 for this year in contrast to 3.2 last year and 3.5 the previous 006)
extra judicial killings and disappearances said the Presidential omplete one as it is only confined to probe only a selected number of nces that have taken place in Colombo and suburbs. Civil Monitoring ld that the presidential commission should not confine itself to probe 9 November 2006)
ovember assured an immediate investigation into alleged reports of y forces and the Karuna faction after the matter was raised by the presentative for children and armed conflict on Sri Lanka. At the it to the country special advisor Allan Rock told the media on 12 ble” evidence that certain elements of the government security forces ating in the abductions and forced recruitment of children for the on my findings. The President said he would see to it that allegations ecurity forces in the forcible abduction of children by Karuna will be held accountable,” Mr. Rock said. (Daily Mirror on 13 November
pressed regret over certain statements made by Ambassador Allan al Representative for Children in Armed Conflict. Mr. Rock who left ing a ten day fact finding mission in Sri Lanka accused government e Karuna faction. (Daily Mirror on 15 November 2006) call from President Mahinda Rajapaksa to surrender their arms, as the nts. ''He must be joking,'' the rebels' top military spokesman, Rasiah ss on 17 November from rebel headquarters in Kilinochchi. Mr. ovember had urged the rebels to renounce violence, surrender their ace, democracy and development in the interest of building a new Sri
2006)
vember directed government authorities to make arrangements for a by road using the A9, as a one time measure. (Daily Mirror on 20
ol in Vavuniya has aroused controversy after the Sri Lanka Monitoring g to eyewitnesses and initial investigations by the monitors a group of and fired indiscriminately at them. (Daily Mirror on 20 November
ed to go ahead with plans to temporarily open the A9 highway on claims that the move was a “gimmick” to deceive the co-chairs who vember and 21 November. (Daily Mirror on 21 November 2006) inghe on 23 November informed the All Party Representative n only the latter half of the discussion - when the degree and ld be taken up. (Daily Mirror on 24 November 2006)
dated indicators (in the reproduced news items) such as d to indicate their exact date.
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Opposition UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has assured TN support to merge the Northern and Eastern provinces if Wickremesinghe told Mr. Sampanthan in Parliament that if there provinces, the UNP would not hesitate to support the move in 2006)
• The LTTE declared on 27 November it now saw no option tha analysts said was notice to the government that a new chapte uncompromising stance of Sinhala chauvinism has left us with no the people of Tamil Eelam,” shadowy Tiger leader Velupillai P address. (Daily Mirror on 28 November 2006)
• The LTTE on 29 November assured it had not withdrawn immediate plans to terminate the peace deal signed in 2002 desp the SLMM told the Daily Mirror. (Daily Mirror on 29 November
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa on 28 November said he was not Prabhakaran's threat to resume his armed campaign for an inde CNN-IBN television channel he was ready for direct talks with M to end an ethnic conflict that had claimed over 65,000 lives and 29 November 2006)
• OSLO, (AFP) - Norway on 28 November said while it did no remain in contact with both the Sri Lankan government and th declaration that the peace process was defunct. (Daily Mirror on
• The Sri Lankan security forces must immediately stop assisting Karuna group and help those abducted return safely to their November thus adding to similar allegations by the UN speci November 2006)
• The International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) has called on me Rights Council to closely scrutinize the human rights situation establishment of a fully-fledged human rights operation in the co Lanka. Civilians are suffering the human rights and humanitaria unaccountable armed forces on all sides”, the ICJ said. (Daily Mirr
• Colombo city was again plunged into panic, shock and tension Gotabhaya Rajapaksa - younger brother of President Mahinda R powerful men in the administration - miraculously escaped unh his convoy at Kollupitiya on 01 December. (Daily Mirror on 02 D
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa is meeting Opposition Leader Ran with the High Powered Committee for the first time to discus including various key developments in the country. (Daily Mirror
• The Patriotic National Movement (PNM), Janatha Vimukthi Per government to ban the LTTE in Sri Lanka immediately and to soon. (Daily Mirror on 04 December 2006)
• The government on 03 December advised the Norwegian faci Tigers until next on 06 Deecmber as it was ‘reviewing the rela “All contacts with the LTTE are under review by the governmen to have contacts with the LTTE, until the Cabinet meets on 06 Chief Palitha Kohona said. He told the visiting Norwegian Peac Kilinochchi until the Cabinet reviewed the matter. (Daily Mirror
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa and Opposition UNP Leader Ran expedite the process of finalizing a negotiated settlement to th signed between the two parties. (Daily Mirror on 06 December 2
• The UN Under-Secretary-General for humanitarian affairs and disturbed by reports of continuing child recruitment by the LT commitment to release all child recruits by next month. Ad December on the protection of civilians in armed conflict Coor over serious threats to civilian protection in Sri Lanka even as ho on 06 December 2006)
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esinghe has assured TNA Leader R.Sampanthan of his party's fullest d Eastern provinces if the issue came before Parliament. Mr. n Parliament that if there was a collective measure to merge the two to support the move in Parliament. (Daily Mirror on 25 November
t now saw no option than to push for an independent state in what ment that a new chapter in the long civil war would deepen. “The vinism has left us with no other option but an independent state for Tiger leader Velupillai Prabhakaran said in his annual Heroes Day r 2006)
it had not withdrawn from the ceasefire agreement or had any deal signed in 2002 despite terming the agreement as being defunct, Mirror on 29 November 2006) vember said he was not taking "seriously" Tamil Tiger chief Velupillai ed campaign for an independent Tamil state. The president told the dy for direct talks with Mr. Prabhakaran instead of involving "others" ed over 65,000 lives and showed no signs of ending. (Daily Mirror on
ber said while it did not see the need for new initiatives, it would nkan government and the Tamil Tigers following the rebel leader's defunct. (Daily Mirror on 29 November 2006)
mediately stop assisting abductions of boys and young men by the d return safely to their families, Human Rights Watch said on 28 ations by the UN special adviser Allen Rock. (Daily Mirror on 29
ts (ICJ) has called on member states of the United Nations Human e human rights situation in Sri Lanka and renewed its call for the ights operation in the country. “There is little neutral space left in Sri n rights and humanitarian consequences of a deepening conflict and
”, the ICJ said. (Daily Mirror on 01 December 2006) anic, shock and tension on 01 December when Defence Secretary r of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and known to be one of the most iraculously escaped unhurt when an LTTE suicide bomber attacked er. (Daily Mirror on 02 December 2006) g Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe on 05 December along r the first time to discuss the MoU signed between the two parties he country. (Daily Mirror on 04 December 2006)
), Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna and Jathika Hela Urumaya urged the anka immediately and to enact Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) 006)
ised the Norwegian facilitators to suspend contacts with the Tamil it was ‘reviewing the relationship’ with the LTTE, a top official said. review by the government, we don’t want the Norwegian facilitators he Cabinet meets on 06 Deecmber,” Government Peace Secretariat visiting Norwegian Peace envoy Jon Hanssen-Bauer not to travel to he matter. (Daily Mirror on 04 December 2006)
sition UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe 05 December agreed to gotiated settlement to the ethnic conflict in keeping with the MoU Mirror on 06 December 2006)
humanitarian affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator says he is d recruitment by the LTTE and called on the rebels to abide by the uits by next month. Addressing the UN Security Council on 04 s in armed conflict Coordinator Jan Egeland also reiterated concerns n in Sri Lanka even as hostilities continued to escalate. (Daily Mirror
2007

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) is to seek clarificati government to tackle terrorism and the impact the measur (CFA), in particular Article 2.12. (Daily Mirror on 07 Decembe
• A majority of members of the experts panel of the All Par report to the President on 08 December recommending max as a unit and a 10-year merger of the Northern and Eastern p source close to the panel told on 07 December. (Daily Mirror
• Norwegian peace envoy Jon Hanssen-Bauer will meet the government gave the green light for his visit to the Wanni foll LTTE sources said Mr. Bauer would meet the LTTE politica future of the peace process following the LTTE leader humanitarian situation in Jaffna as a result of the A9 closu discussed. (Daily Mirror on 08 December 2006)
• The Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) led by Karuna A with the government’s move to re-introduce the Prevention o would open the doors for the harassment of ordinary Tamil told the Daily Mirror the Tamil people had been mostly affe prior to the signing of the ceasefire agreement and its reintr Mirror on 08 December 2006)
• Colombo’s Anglican Bishop the Rt. Revd. Duleep de Chicke the implementation of the terrorism act and other tough new people who are committed to peace and democracy. While st Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, the Bishop appea commitment to a negotiated peace settlement with justice an introduce these new regulations. (Daily Mirror on 08 Decembe
• The Government on 10 December accused the Sri Lanka Mo even as the LTTE used civilians as human shields and fired mo areas in Trincomalee, forcing the military to take defensive 2006)
• An angry President Mahinda Rajapaksa has accused the Al beyond its authority and leaking its final report to the media. an urgent meeting with the President when media splashed in the Representative Committee of the APC last on 06 Decemb
• Amidst growing violence in the East, LTTE gunmen stormed and abducted 23 students along with two tutors on 18 Decem 19 December and the LTTE admitted involvement in the incid
• The United Nations on 26 December slammed Sri La reconstruction efforts as the country marked the second an Secretary General Kofi Annan blamed both the government a rebuilding after the December 26, 2004 tsunami that killed (Daily Mirror on 27 December 2006)
• TULF President V. Anandasangree has told President Mahind Province was untimely. “If you are serious about all our peop rights like others, please stop further action on the de-merge on 28 December 2006)
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission on 01 January said it would period” as it re-groups and reconsiders its operations in the government troops and the LTTE. All SLMM district offices this month but the monitoring activities will be reduced th spokesperson told the Daily Mirror adding that the monitors Colombo. (Daily Mirror on 01 January 2007)
• The administrative operations of the newly de-merged Nor January with the dawn of the new year in separate offices in said. Eastern Governor Mohan Wijeyawickrema, who is also told the Daily Mirror on 01 January evening that the office January 2007)
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MM) is to seek clarification on the new measures implemented by the the impact the measures would have on the Ceasefire Agreement ily Mirror on 07 December 2006)
rts panel of the All Party Conference are to submit a preliminary ber recommending maximum devolution of power with the province Northern and Eastern provinces as a solution to the ethnic conflict, a December. (Daily Mirror on 08 December 2006)
n-Bauer will meet the LTTE for talks on 08 December after the is visit to the Wanni following the Cabinet meeting on 06 December. meet the LTTE political head, S. P. Thamilselvan during which the ing the LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran’s policy speech, the result of the A9 closure and other CFA related issues would be mber 2006)
TMVP) led by Karuna Amman said on 07 December it was unhappy troduce the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) owing to concerns it sment of ordinary Tamil civilians. TMVP spokesman Azaath Moulana ple had been mostly affected by the PTA at the time it was in force agreement and its reintroduction would reignite similar fears. (Daily
evd. Duleep de Chickera on 08 December expressed concern that act and other tough new regulations might further alienate the Tamil and democracy. While strongly condemning the recent attempt to kill aksa, the Bishop appealed to the government to demonstrate its ettlement with justice and dignity for all by reviewing the decision to ily Mirror on 08 December 2006)
ccused the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) of remaining mum man shields and fired mortars and shells into Government controlled ilitary to take defensive measures. (Daily Mirror on 11 December
ksa has accused the All Party Conference experts’ panel of going nal report to the media. On Friday, the Jathika Hela Urumaya sought when media splashed in full, one of the four reports handed over to APC last on 06 December. (Daily Mirror on 12 December 2006) , LTTE gunmen stormed a tuition class at Vinayagapuram in Ampara two tutors on 18 December night—but most were released later on involvement in the incident. (Daily Mirror on 20 December 2006) mber slammed Sri Lanka's warring parties for stalling tsunami y marked the second anniversary of the disaster. The outgoing UN both the government and the LTTE for the violence that has slowed 004 tsunami that killed an estimated 31,000 people in the country. )
s told President Mahinda Rajapaksa the demerger of the North-East erious about all our people irrespective of their ethnicity enjoying all action on the de-merger and maintain the status quo”. (Daily Mirror
01 January said it would curtail its monitoring activities for a “short ers its operations in the wake of continuing hostilities between the ll SLMM district offices will remain open during the workshop early vities will be reduced though not completely suspended, an SLMM adding that the monitors were yet to fix a date for the regrouping in ry 2007)
e newly de-merged Northern and Eastern provinces started on 01 ar in separate offices in Trincomalee town, a top government official awickrema, who is also the acting Governor for Northern Province, evening that the offices functioned smoothly. (Daily Mirror on 02
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The JHU on 05 January stressed the importance of Indian sup delegation met Indian High Commissioner Alok Prasad at h present situation of the ethnic conflict and highlight the n between the two countries. (Daily Mirror on 06 January 2007)
• In an apparent indication that the escalating defence budg economy, a senior Minister said on 08 January the country w Multi-barrel rocket fired on the LTTE. Senior Minister and insisted that though the government was now focusing on mil solution should be a political one. (Daily Mirror on 09 January 2
• The United Nations deplored the deaths of civilians in the immediate assistance be provided for thousands of people tr UN condemns the deliberate targeting of civilians and deplo buses which resulted in the deaths of over 20 innocent civilia Mirror on 09 January 2007)
• Snap polls and the implementation of the death penalty have President Mahinda Rajapaksa said on 09 January. Addressing Rajapaksa said that although diverse views had been express going ahead with a snap general election or the implementati being. The President said the cost of an election and the confid parliament at any given time were the factors that made him 10 January 2007)
• The Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pullikal - the political arm of th security for its political offices in the East in the face of freque January 2007)
• The ‘Karuna’ faction is disrupting civil administration in B Government controlled areas and intimidating civilians, urgi political offices, and not to the police, sources in Batticaloa January 2007)
• The Government on 14 January again called upon the LTTE the military or to the police, immediately, a day after the Spe fleeing LTTE cadres in the Ampara district. (Daily Mirror on 15
• Batticaloa police have sent a comprehensive report on the te Police headquarters in Colombo, the Daily Mirror learns. S violent acts committed in the recent past in Batticaloa inclu Muslims and Tamils over a land dispute. (Daily Mirror on 16 Jan
• The security forces on 16 January captured LTTE held village Defence Lines at Panichchankerni in the Vakarai region killin jets pounded a Tamil Tiger camp at Verugal, military spokesm on 17 January 2007)
• The STF captured an LTTE’s women’s wing camp - Nalini Ba Jaya’ military operation, bringing the total number of Tiger military said. “There was evidence that Nalini Base was a tra used as a factory turning out weapons and ammunition,” a se January 2007)
• The role of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) is to u ongoing workshop of the ceasefire monitors, an SLMM sp government has been briefed on the changes. SLMM spo government was also invited to give its input on making the similar invitation would be put forward to the LTTE as well 2007)
• The United Nations (UN) on 17 January once again reiterat affected civilians, even as Government Defense spokesman M the need to monitor the activities of NGOs and INGOs, in th or indirectly assisting the LTTE. (Daily Mirror on 18 January 20
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importance of Indian support to resolve the national question. A JHU sioner Alok Prasad at his office on 05 January to brief him on the flict and highlight the need to maintain the longstanding goodwill irror on 06 January 2007)
escalating defence budget is taking a heavy toll on the country’s 8 January the country was losing almost one hundred jobs with each E. Senior Minister and SLFP General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena was now focusing on military engagements, it was aware that the final aily Mirror on 09 January 2007)
eaths of civilians in the twin bus bombing and also demanded that r thousands of people trapped in the LTTE-controlled Vakarai. “The ng of civilians and deplores the latest incidents involving two civilian f over 20 innocent civilians with dozens maimed and injured’’. (Daily
the death penalty have been put on hold, at least for the time being, 09 January. Addressing the monthly meeting with Editors, President views had been expressed on both subjects, he had no intention of tion or the implementation of the death penalty, at least for the time an election and the confidence that he could command the majority in e factors that made him decide against an election. (Daily Mirror on
l - the political arm of the Karuna faction has sought full government East in the face of frequent attacks by the LTTE. (Daily Mirror on 13
civil administration in Batticaloa by moving around with arms in ntimidating civilians, urging them to report their problems to their e, sources in Batticaloa told the Daily Mirror. (Daily Mirror on 15
n called upon the LTTE cadres in the Vakarai region to surrender to ately, a day after the Special Task Force (STF) made such request to strict. (Daily Mirror on 15 January 2007)
hensive report on the tensions which erupted in Kattankudy, to the e Daily Mirror learns. Sources said the report details the spate of t past in Batticaloa including tensions arising in Kattankudy between te. (Daily Mirror on 16 January 2007) ptured LTTE held villages of Ichchalampaththu, Uppural and Forward the Vakarai region killing more than 30 Tigers, while Air Force Kfir Verugal, military spokesman Prasad Samarasinghe said. (Daily Mirror
’s wing camp - Nalini Base - in Kanchikudichchiaru during its ‘Niyatai total number of Tiger camps captured by the force to twelve, the at Nalini Base was a training and a detention camp. It has also been s and ammunition,” a senior military official said. (Daily Mirror on 17
Mission (SLMM) is to undergo some amendments at the end of the monitors, an SLMM spokesman said on 16 January. He said the he changes. SLMM spokesman Thorfinur Omarsson told that the its input on making the role of the monitors more effective while a rd to the LTTE as well later this week. (Daily Mirror on 17 January
uary once again reiterated the need for humanitarian access to the nt Defense spokesman Minister Keheliya Rambukwelle impressed on NGOs and INGOs, in the face of concerns that they may be directly ly Mirror on 18 January 2007)
2007

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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• People in Jaffna have gone back to the barter business which w land route was closed essentials including milk powder are Some people now tend to exchange some of the items they b Mirror on 18 January 2007)
• The onetime LTTE strongman Yogaratnam Yogi is again in th Yogi, who was removed in the early nineties from the ranks the case of many other ex-LTTE leaders, was reported later t (Daily Mirror on 18 January 2007)
• The United Nations humanitarian agencies and their local par action plan to the donor community requesting for $66 million twelve months, the UN announced on 18 January. (Daily Mirro
• Security forces personnel on 19 January captured the crucial V the government vowed to embark on a new scheme to develo last-remaining LTTE bastion in the East. The Panichankerni B the Vakarai town including its hospital with little or no resista where they continued to fire at the military occasionally, mil 2007)
• A fierce battle erupted between the Sea Tigers and the navy o the Tigers attempted to ram a cargo vessel which was anchore food supplies in Jaffna. (Daily Mirror on 22 January 2007)
• The army and the Karuna faction confronted retreating LTTE on 20 January night and early last morning killing more than 30 recovered a brand new anti aircraft machine gun capable of Mirror on 22 January 2007)
• With the latest offensive in the east resulting in thousands of for safety the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR to respect international humanitarian laws, including the movement. (Daily Mirror on 22 January 2007)
• Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera on 23 January sen Rajapaksa requesting him to reconsider the decision to accept sources said. In the letter copied to President’s advisers B Samaraweera reminded President Rajapaksa that with the ba was anyhow commanding a majority with 135 seats in parliame
• The Government on 26 January rejected allegations by a N security forces supported recruitment of child soldiers but ple The Government said the Human Rights Watch report r “unsubstantiated” claims by a UN official who first made the 2006. (Daily Mirror on 27 January 2007)
• Hours after the exodus of 18 MPs, the United National Party comeback and officially announced the annulment of the 97- January 2007)
• The first Cabinet reshuffle of the Mahinda Rajapaksa govern parties, with the government’s former ally, the JVP terming burden to the country and its people”, while the JHU expres cabinet. (Daily Mirror on 29 January 2007)
• SLFP General Secretary and Agriculture Minister Maithripala himself for being a member of a Cabinet that was the size o Cabinet was a heavy burden on the country’s economy. M Agriculture Development Ministry in Battaramulla on assum (Daily Mirror on 31 January 2007)
• As an endorsement of President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s 10-ye pledged US$ 4.5 billion’ Enterprise Development and Investme on 30 January. The government secured this unconditional agencies for the next three years at the Sri Lanka Develop January, he told a news conference. (Daily Mirror on 31 Januar
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e barter business which was in vogue in the 15th century. After the A-9 luding milk powder are distributed through the co-operative societies. some of the items they buy with other essential items they need. (Daily
atnam Yogi is again in the limelight after a lapse of about sixteen years. nineties from the ranks of the organization, but not hunted down as in ers, was reported later to be coaching cricket at Jaffna Central College.
encies and their local partners have presented a common humanitarian requesting for $66 million as assistance to Sri Lanka over the next six to n 18 January. (Daily Mirror on 19 January 2007) ary captured the crucial Vakarai town and advanced further north while a new scheme to develop the captured areas. Vakarai is considered the ast. The Panichankerni Bridge was the first to be liberated followed by l with little or no resistance from the rebels who had fled to the jungles military occasionally, military officials said. (Daily Mirror on 20 January
Sea Tigers and the navy off the seas of Point Pedro last afternoon when vessel which was anchored just outside the KKS harbour after unloading on 22 January 2007)
fronted retreating LTTE cadres from Vakarai in two separate incidents rning killing more than 30 rebels while the Karuna faction claimed it had machine gun capable of firing from a distance of at least 50km. (Daily
esulting in thousands of civilians fleeing to government-controlled areas r for Refugees (UNHCR) has urged both the government and the LTTE an laws, including the protection of civilians and their freedom of ary 2007)
era on 23 January sent a confidential letter to President Mahinda er the decision to accept the UNP dissidents, highly placed government o President’s advisers Basil Rajapaksa and Dallas Alahapperuma, Mr. japaksa that with the backing of the JVP and the JHU, the government
ith 135 seats in parliament. (Daily Mirror on 24 January 2007) jected allegations by a New York-based human rights group that its t of child soldiers but pledged an “independent” probe into the charges. Rights Watch report released on 24 January had relied heavily on ficial who first made the allegations of child recruitment in November 07) he United National Party (UNP) on 28 January vowed to stage a major he annulment of the 97-day-old SLFP-UNP MoU. (Daily Mirror on 29
ahinda Rajapaksa government ran into various reactions from political er ally, the JVP terming it as a “laughing matter to the world and a ”, while the JHU expressed a more neutral opinion towards the jumbo 2007) ure Minister Maithripala Sirisena on 30 January said he was ashamed of binet that was the size of the present one and admitted that the new country’s economy. Minister Sirisena was addressing his staff at the n Battaramulla on assuming duties on 30 January after the re-shuffle.
ahinda Rajapaksa’s 10-year development plan, Donors on 30 January evelopment and Investment Promotion Minister Sarath Amunugama said cured this unconditional commitment from the donor countries and t the Sri Lanka Development Forum which concluded in Galle on 30 Daily Mirror on 31 January 2007)
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• An angry JVP charged on 01 February that the recent coal members of the Opposition was an attempt to cover up corr both sides. JVP leader Somawansa Amarasinghe told a news c to government ranks were facing serious corruption allegation Enterprises (COPE). (Daily Mirror on 02 February 2007)
• India has expressed concern over the nullification of the MoU result of the Government entertaining a team of UNP MPs sources said on 01 February. The issue was discussed when met UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe recently. (Daily Mirror
• While expressing concern over the collapse of the MoU signe expects President Mahinda Rajapaksa to submit the peace pro a majority in Parliament. (Daily Mirror on 03 February 2007)
• Parades demonstrating military power vied with displays sy cultural heritage at the 59th National Day celebrations held o 2007)
• Launching an indirect attack on the UNP reformists, Ports and on 04 February what the country needed today was a nation and positions. (Daily Mirror on 05 February 2007)
• The security and safety of civilians fleeing LTTE controlled are with reports of the LTTE and the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pu civilians making their way to government controlled areas. Monitoring Mission (SLMM) managed to prevent the abdu Batticaloa after they were rounded up together with another on 06 February 2007)
• Tamils living in Britain are being pressured into donating mone harassment if they refuse, The London Times reported on which interviewed a number of Sri Lankan Tamils living in Bri that the country's High Commission here has alerted the B Organised Crime Agency. (Daily Mirror on 06 February 2007)
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7
ary that the recent coalition between the Government and several ttempt to cover up corruption allegations against leading members of marasinghe told a news conference most of those who crossed over ious corruption allegations by the parliamentary Committee on Public n 02 February 2007)
e nullification of the MoU between the ruling SLFP and the UNP as a ng a team of UNP MPs through the offer of portfolios, Opposition sue was discussed when Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh he recently. (Daily Mirror on 02 February 2007) ollapse of the MoU signed between the SLFP and the UNP, India now to submit the peace proposals soon as the government now enjoyed r on 03 February 2007) er vied with displays symbolising the pride of the country’s great l Day celebrations held on 04 February. (Daily Mirror on 05 February
NP reformists, Ports and Aviation Minister Mangala Samaraweera said eded today was a national agenda and not crossovers aimed at perks bruary 2007) eing LTTE controlled areas in the east has been thrown into question amil Makkal Viduthalai Pullikal (TMVP) or Karuna abducting displaced ment controlled areas. The Daily Mirror has learnt the Sri Lanka d to prevent the abduction of at least 10 youth in Savukkaddy, p together with another group by armed TMVP cadres. (Daily Mirror
sured into donating money to support the LTTE Tiger rebels and face on Times reported on 05 February. According to the newspaper, ankan Tamils living in Britain, the problem has become so widespread here has alerted the British Interior Ministry and the Serious and ror on 06 February 2007)
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F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCT
15TH
OF
F
EBRUARY
2007
The following are the significant trends observed in the important to note that this particular wave of the PCI on Up-Country Tamil communities in the areas outside Nor total exclusion of the Tamil community in the sample, this r national estimations.
♦ Important Issues: When asked to rate five national is importance, the Sinhala (Peace Process – 28.8%, Eco (Peace Process – 33.6%, Economy – 28.9%) communiti process followed by the economy. The Up-Country Process – 27.2%) community gives high priority to the process. When compared to the PCI findings of Nov priorities amongst the Up-Country Tamil community. (Re
♦ Solution: An overwhelming majority of the Up-Cou
(88.1%) communities state that peace can be achieved slight majority of the Sinhala (46.3%) community believe the Sinhala community supports the government defeati the PCI findings of November 2006, the Sinhala support LTTE has increased by 9 points to 35.1% while their su from 11 points to 46.3%. Amongst the Muslim commu reduced by 11 points to 88.1%. (Ref. Page 16)
♦ End to the Conflict: A majority of the Sinhala (48.3%)
is ‘close’ in approaching a permanent settlement to the Up-Country Tamil (50.8%) and the Muslim (55%) com ‘not close at all’ in finding a permanent settlement to the to the PCI findings of November 2006, amongst the believe that the country is ‘close’ has significantly increas February ‘07- 48.3%). (Ref. Page 17)
♦ Likelihood of War: A majority of the Sinhala (65.9%
Muslim (63.9%) communities believe that it is likely a w to the PCI findings of November 2006, those who b resume has increased amongst the Sinhala (November community while it has decreased amongst the Muslim ‘07- 63.9%) community. (Ref. Page 18)
♦ Expanding military offensives: A majority of the Sinha the statement that “The government should expand its out war in order to weaken the LTTE”. A majority o community disagree with the statement. The Muslim community has a divided opinion in this regard. When November 2006, the agreement amongst the Sinhala c November ‘06- 55%, February ‘07- 59.2%) while the Country Tamil community has decreased (Disagree: No 87.9%). (Ref. Page 19)

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THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
6TH F
EBRUARY TO 15
OF
F
EBRUARY
2007
trends observed in the PCI February 2007 survey. It is ular wave of the PCI only covers the Sinhala, Muslim and n the areas outside North and East. Further, due to the unity in the sample, this report does not intend to present
d to rate five national issues according to their order of Process – 28.8%, Economy – 28.6%) and the Muslim my – 28.9%) communities give high priority to the peace omy. The Up-Country Tamil (Economy – 30.9%, Peace ives high priority to the economy followed by the peace the PCI findings of November 2006, there is a shift of
try Tamil community. (Ref. Page 15)
ajority of the Up-Country Tamil (95.2%) and Muslim peace can be achieved through peace talks while only a .3%) community believes the same. Interestingly, 35.1% of s the government defeating the LTTE. When compared to 006, the Sinhala support for the government defeating the to 35.1% while their support for peace talks has reduced ngst the Muslim community, support for peace talks has (Ref. Page 16)
y of the Sinhala (48.3%) community think that the country anent settlement to the ethnic conflict. A majority of the the Muslim (55%) community think that the country is manent settlement to the ethnic conflict. When compared ber 2006, amongst the Sinhala community, those who e’ has significantly increased (Close: November ‘06- 26.3%, e 17)
ty of the Sinhala (65.9%), Up-Country Tamil (69.9%) and elieve that it is likely a war will resume. When compared ber 2006, those who believe that it is likely a war will the Sinhala (November ‘06- 58.2%, February ‘07- 65.9%) sed amongst the Muslim (November ‘06- 78.3%, February age 18)
s: A majority of the Sinhala (59.2%) community agree with nment should expand its military action including even all he LTTE”. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (87.9%) statement. The Muslim (Agree- 50%, Disagree- 50%) on in this regard. When compared to the PCI findings of nt amongst the Sinhala community has increased (Agree: ‘07- 59.2%) while the disagreement amongst the Up- decreased (Disagree: November ‘06- 92.3%, February ‘07-
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♦ Security Situation: With regard to the current secu
majority of the Sinhala (50.3%) and the Muslim (45.9% somewhat improved. A majority of the Up-Country Tam turned bad. (Ref. Page 20)
♦ Commitment and Capability of Parties to the Pea
Sinhala (73.8%) and the Muslim (50%) communities committed to find peace through talks. The Up-Count opinion (Agree- 36.1%, Disagree- 32.8%, Don’t know/N to the PCI findings of November 2006, the agreeme November ’06- 79.9%, February ‘07- 73.8%) and November ’06- 52.3%, February ‘07- 36.1%) communitie
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (60.6%) and the Muslim (71 government is capable of finding peace through talks. community, 37.7% disagree while 29.5% agree. When November 2006, the agreement amongst the Sinhala February ‘07- 60.6%) has slightly increased while the agr Tamil (Agree: November ‘06- 34.9%, February ‘07- 2 (Ref. Page 22)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (76.8%) and the Muslim (59.3 LTTE is committed to find peace through talks. 4 community agree that the LTTE is committed to f compared to the PCI findings of November 2006, the ag Tamil (Agree: November ‘06- 61.4%, February ‘07- 43 decreased. Amongst the Muslim community, the disagre 35.1%, February ‘07- 59.3%) has significantly increase November ‘06- 35.1%, February ‘07- 18.6%) has decreas
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (51.1%) community disagree t peace through talks. A majority of the Muslim (56.9%) c capable of finding peace through talks. Amongst the Up- agree while 23% disagree. Another 39.3% don’t know the PCI findings of November 2006, the agreement (Agree: November ‘06- 51.2%, February ‘07- 37.7 decreased while the agreement amongst the Muslim February ‘07- 56.9%) community has slightly decreased. (
♦ Ceasefire Agreement: Of the people who are awar
Sinhala (46.4%) community say that the CFA has not majority of the Up-Country Tamil (55.9%) and the Mus the CFA has benefited the ordinary citizen. When c November 2006, amongst the Up-Country Tamil (Nov 55.9%) and Muslim (November ‘06- 87.3%, February ‘07 say that the CFA has benefited the ordinary citizen has 25)
♦ Of those who think the CFA has benefited the ordin community thinks peaceful environment in the country the CFA. Another 65.8% of the Sinhala community th important benefit of the CFA, while 45.6% thinks freedo

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rd to the current security condition in the country, a ) and the Muslim (45.9%) communities think that it has y of the Up-Country Tamil (62.9%) community think it has
y of Parties to the Peace Process: A majority of the lim (50%) communities agree that the government is gh talks. The Up-Country Tamil community has a mixed e- 32.8%, Don’t know/Not sure- 31.1%). When compared ber 2006, the agreement amongst the Sinhala (Agree: ary ‘07- 73.8%) and the Up-Country Tamil (Agree:
‘07- 36.1%) communities has decreased. (Ref. Page 21)
6%) and the Muslim (71.7%) communities agree that the ng peace through talks. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil ile 29.5% agree. When compared to the PCI findings of nt amongst the Sinhala (Agree: November ’06- 56.6%, y increased while the agreement amongst the Up-Country 34.9%, February ‘07- 29.5%) community has decreased.
%) and the Muslim (59.3%) communities disagree that the peace through talks. 43.3% of the Up-Country Tamil TE is committed to find peace through talks. When f November 2006, the agreement amongst the Up-country 61.4%, February ‘07- 43.3%) community has significantly community, the disagreement (Disagree: November ‘06- has significantly increased while the agreement (Agree:
‘07- 18.6%) has decreased. (Ref. Page 23)
) community disagree that the LTTE is capable of finding of the Muslim (56.9%) community agree that the LTTE is h talks. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 37.7% ther 39.3% don’t know or not sure. When compared to r 2006, the agreement amongst the Up-Country Tamil %, February ‘07- 37.7%) community has significantly nt amongst the Muslim (Agree: November ‘06- 62.2%, y has slightly decreased. (Ref. Page 24)
e people who are aware of the CFA, a majority of the that the CFA has not benefited the ordinary citizen. A mil (55.9%) and the Muslim (55.6%) communities say that rdinary citizen. When compared to the PCI findings of Up-Country Tamil (November ‘06- 68.9%, February ‘07- ‘06- 87.3%, February ‘07- 55.6%) communities, those who the ordinary citizen has significantly decreased. (Ref. Page
has benefited the ordinary citizen, 66.6% of the Sinhala ironment in the country is the most important benefit of e Sinhala community thinks ending of killing is the most hile 45.6% thinks freedom of movement is the most
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important benefit of the CFA. Amongst the Up-Coun (69.7%) thinks freedom of movement is the most However, 51.4% of them think peaceful environme important benefit, and 57.3% think it is the feeling o community, a majority (77.2%) thinks peaceful environ important benefit of the CFA. Nevertheless, 71.1% o freedom of movement is the most important benefit of of killing is the most important benefit. (Ref. Page 26)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (79.7%) and the Muslim (53.3
the government’s commitment to the CFA. A majority community are not satisfied with the government’s com 27)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (90.3%) and the Muslim (71.1%
the LTTE’s commitment to the CFA. A majority of community are satisfied with the LTTE’s commitment to
♦ Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM): Of those who
foreign monitors, a majority of the Sinhala (52.3%) comm to have a monitoring mission for the CFA to succeed Tamil (84%) and the Muslim (80.4%) communities thi monitoring mission for the CFA to succeed. When c November 2006, those who say that it is essential communities. (Ref. Page 29)
♦ Despite of the escalation of violence between the Gov parties claim that they are abide by the CFA. In this con Tamil (57.7%) and the Muslim (60.9%) communities bel very important at this present moment. The Sinhala c (Important- 35.4%, Not important- 38.2%). (Ref. Page 30)
♦ Foreign Involvement: A majority of the Sinhala (46.3%
the Muslim (76.7%) communities believe that an inte positive impact on the peace process. It is notew community, there’s a lower support for international fac Country Tamil and the Muslim communities. In additio thinks that international facilitation is not needed to sol (Ref. Page 31)
♦ When asked about the level of satisfaction with the majority of the Sinhala (55.1%) community express contrary, a majority of the Up-Country Tamil (6 communities express their satisfaction. When compared 2006, the dissatisfaction amongst the Sinhala commu November ‘06- 50.1%, February ‘07- 55.1%) and the sati Tamil community has decreased (Satisfied: November (Ref. Page 32)
♦ When asked if they approve or disapprove of Norway
process, a majority of the Sinhala (57.1%) community dis

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Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, a majority ovement is the most important benefit of the CFA. ink peaceful environment in the country is the most think it is the feeling of security. Amongst the Muslim thinks peaceful environment in the country is the most . Nevertheless, 71.1% of the Muslim community thinks ost important benefit of the CFA, and 52.2% think ending benefit. (Ref. Page 26)
%) and the Muslim (53.3%) community are satisfied with to the CFA. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (68.8%) ith the government’s commitment to the CFA. (Ref. Page
) and the Muslim (71.1%) community are dissatisfied with he CFA. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (53.2%) e LTTE’s commitment to the CFA. (Ref. Page 28)
n (SLMM): Of those who are aware of the involvement of the Sinhala (52.3%) community think that it is not essential for the CFA to succeed. A majority of the Up-Country (80.4%) communities think that it is essential to have a FA to succeed. When compared to the PCI findings of say that it is essential have decreased amongst all the
lence between the Government and the LTTE, both the by the CFA. In this context, a majority of the Up-country (60.9%) communities believe that the role of the SLMM is moment. The Sinhala community has a divided opinion nt- 38.2%). (Ref. Page 30)
rity of the Sinhala (46.3%), Up-Country Tamil (76.2%) and ies believe that an international third party will have a process. It is noteworthy that amongst the Sinhala port for international facilitation in comparison to the Up- communities. In addition, 28% of the Sinhala community ion is not needed to solve the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka.
of satisfaction with the Norwegian role as facilitator, a %) community expresses their dissatisfaction. On the Up-Country Tamil (60.7%) and the Muslim (62.7%) faction. When compared to the PCI findings of November gst the Sinhala community has increased (Dissatisfied: ‘07- 55.1%) and the satisfaction amongst the Up-Country d (Satisfied: November ‘06- 68.9%, February ‘07- 60.7%).
r disapprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace la (57.1%) community disapproves. A majority of the Up-
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Country Tamil (55%) approves. A majority of the Mus although 30% of them disapproves. (Ref. Page 33)
♦ Asked as to the most suitable country to play the role o
a majority of the Sinhala (44.8%) community couldn’t n India and 15.9% name United States of America. A m (57.1%) community says India is the most suitable coun Nevertheless, 17.5% of the Up-Country Tamil comm suitable country. The Muslim community seems to be d India as 27.1% says Norway is the most suitable coun most suitable country to play the role of facilitator. (Ref.
♦ When asked about the need for India’s involvement in
the Sinhala (44.7%), Up-Country Tamil (81%) and the that India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace pro Interestingly, those who believe that India’s involveme relatively lower amongst the Sinhala community in communities. (Ref. Page 35)
♦ The Government of President Mahinda Rajapakse: community have a lot of confidence on the President M a successful military campaign against the LTTE while 36 little confidence. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil comm while 39.1% have no confidence at all. A majority of the little confidence while 26.2% have no confidence at all. (R
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (43.3%) community have little
Rajapakse’s capacity in reducing the economic burden the Up-Country Tamil (44.4%) and the Muslim (52.5%) at all. (Ref. Page 37)
♦ With regard to the speculations that President Mahind snap poll, a majority of the Sinhala (66.8%) community majority of the Up-Country Tamil (45.3%) and the Musl it. (Ref. Page 38)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (47.8%) and the Muslim President Mahinda Rajapakse is somewhat successful majority of the Up-Country Tamil (41.3%) communi Rajapakse is not successful at all in preserving law and or
♦ Crossovers: The Sinhala community has a mixed opinio the 18 UNP members and six SLMC members to the g 2006 (Approve- 37.9%, Disapprove- 37.6%). A majority community say they don’t know or are not sure. Neve 17.2% approve. Amongst the Muslim community, 43.3% (Ref. Page 40)
♦ Of those who approve of the crossover of the 18 UNP to the government on the 28th of January 2006, a community approve as they believe that it will strengthe

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. A majority of the Muslim (56.7%) community approves, ves. (Ref. Page 33)
ountry to play the role of facilitator to the peace process, ) community couldn’t name a country while 20.8% name States of America. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil s the most suitable country to play the role of facilitator. p-Country Tamil community says Norway is the most ommunity seems to be divided between the Norway and the most suitable country while 25.4% says India is the e role of facilitator. (Ref. Page 34)
r India’s involvement in the peace process, a majority of ry Tamil (81%) and the Muslim (65%) communities think Sri Lankan peace process will have a positive impact. e that India’s involvement will have a positive impact is Sinhala community in comparison with the minority
ent Mahinda Rajapakse: A majority of the Sinhala (48%) ence on the President Mahinda Rajapakse’s ability to wage gainst the LTTE while 36.1% of the Sinhala community has p-Country Tamil community, 31.3% have little confidence at all. A majority of the Muslim (44.3%) community have ve no confidence at all. (Ref. Page 36)
) community have little confidence on President Mahinda g the economic burden of the Sri Lankans. A majority of and the Muslim (52.5%) communities have no confidence
s that President Mahinda Rajapakse will soon announce a hala (66.8%) community disapprove of such a snap poll. A mil (45.3%) and the Muslim (60%) communities approve of
7.8%) and the Muslim (51.7%) communities think that is somewhat successful in preserving law and order. A Tamil (41.3%) community think that President Mahinda l in preserving law and order. (Ref. Page 39)
unity has a mixed opinion with regard to the crossover of SLMC members to the government on the 28th of January ove- 37.6%). A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (43.8%) w or are not sure. Nevertheless, 39.1% disapprove while uslim community, 43.3% approve while 41.7% disapprove.
rossover of the 18 UNP members and six SLMC members 8 of January 2006, a majority of the Sinhala (52.7%) ieve that it will strengthen the president and the
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government. However, 25% of the Sinhala community a believe that it will help the government’s present war ag
♦ Of those who disapprove the crossover of the 18 UNP to the government on the 28th of January 2006, a community disapprove as they believe that it will be a bi of the members were given ministerial portfolios. (Ref. P
♦ All Party Representative Committee (APRC): Of t
majority report of the All Party Representative Comm Sinhala (70.6%) community are not informed of the However, 13.7% of the Sinhala community is somewhat or are not sure. (Ref. Page 43)
♦ When asked whether they agree or disagree with the
report, the Sinhala community has a divided opinion ( (Ref. Page 44)
♦ Of the 32.5% who are aware of the Prof. Tissa Vitha Sinhala (45.2%) community don’t know or are not sure move ahead in finding a southern consensus based o However, 34.7% of the Sinhala community thinks the go in finding a southern consensus based on Prof. Tissa Vi the government should move ahead in finding a souther Vitharana’s report. (Ref. Page 45)
♦ Trade Union Strikes: A majority of the Sinhala (40. strike action which is critical of the government is an ex 16.4% of the Sinhala community thinks that it is an expr another 13.1% think that it is expression of unpatriotic Country Tamil (50.8%) community think that it is an exp of the Up-Country Tamil community thinks that it is an The Muslim community has a divided opinion in thi expression of democracy while 36.2% think its an expr Page 46)
♦ Corruption in the Public Sector: A majority of the U Muslim (68.3%) communities believe that the corru increased in the last five years. Amongst the Sinhala com increased while 30.3% believe that it has decreased. (Ref.
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (43%) community think that somewhat successful in reducing the corruption in the Up-Country Tamil (42.2%) community don’t know or community 32.8% think somewhat successful while 39.3 all. (Ref. Page 48)
♦ New Emergency Regulations: Of the 47.5% who ar
regulations, a majority of the Sinhala (84.8%) communi regulations are important in the government’s effort to (Ref. Page 49)

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the Sinhala community approves of the crossover as they rnment’s present war against the LTTE. (Ref. Page 41)
rossover of the 18 UNP members and six SLMC members 8 of January 2006, a majority of the Sinhala (48.9%) believe that it will be a bigger burden to the public as many
isterial portfolios. (Ref. Page 42)
ommittee (APRC): Of the 31.8% who are aware of the ty Representative Committee (APRC), a majority of the not informed of the contents of the majority report. community is somewhat informed while 14.7% don’t know
ee or disagree with the proposed findings of the majority has a divided opinion (Agree- 41.1%, Disagree- 41.1%).
of the Prof. Tissa Vitharana’s report, a majority of the ’t know or are not sure whether the government should ern consensus based on Prof. Tissa Vitharana’s report. community thinks the government should not move ahead based on Prof. Tissa Vitharana’s report, while 20% think head in finding a southern consensus based on Prof. Tissa 5)
ority of the Sinhala (40.3%) community believe that any the government is an expression of democracy. However, y thinks that it is an expression of political instability while xpression of unpatriotic behavior. A majority of the Up- nity think that it is an expression of democracy. But 24.6% unity thinks that it is an expression of political instability. divided opinion in this regard, as 36.2% think it’s an 36.2% think its an expression of political instability. (Ref.
ctor: A majority of the Up- Country Tamil (51.6%) and the believe that the corruption in the public sector has Amongst the Sinhala community, 39.5% believe that it has hat it has decreased. (Ref. Page 47)
) community think that President Mahinda Rajapakse is g the corruption in the public sector. A majority of the mmunity don’t know or not sure. Amongst the Muslim hat successful while 39.3% think they are not successful at
s: Of the 47.5% who are aware of the new emergency inhala (84.8%) community think that the new emergency e government’s effort to combat and prevent terrorism.
2007
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Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results ♦ A majority of the Sinhala (67.6%) community disagree w
emergency regulations could be harmful to the ordinary
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (63.6%) community disag
regulations are more harmful to democracy than helpf Page 51)
♦ Human Rights Abuses: When asked who they thin protection of human rights, a majority of the Sinhala (6 and the Muslim (80.3%) communities think that the g responsibility for the protection of human rights. (Ref. Pa
♦ Amongst the people who say that the Government is
human rights, a majority of the Sinhala (53.2%) comm done enough to protect human rights. A majority of the Muslim (49.7%) communities think that the government human rights. (Ref. Page 53)
♦ Killings and Abductions: A majority of the Sinhala (58.
the Muslim (64.3%) communities don’t know or not abduction of the Vice Chancellor of the Eastern Univer 15th of December 2006. (Ref. Page 54)
♦ Commission of Inquiry: The President called for
investigate into the recent killings, disappearances Subsequently the president called for a national commiss an international panel of observers. In this context, peo be the best option to investigate the recent killings, disa Lanka. A majority of the Sinhala (44.4%) community hav 28.4% of the Sinhala community thinks a national co majority of the Up-Country Tamil (48.4%) community 32.2% of the Up-Country Tamil community thinks investigation is the best option. The Muslim community an international commission of investigation is the b national commission with international observers is the
♦ A significant majority of the Up-Country Tamil (7 communities say they don’t know or are not sure whet functions of the Presidential Commission of Inquiry on H Group of Eminent Persons (IIGEP) would strengthen th Lanka. Amongst the Sinhala community, 56.5% say they 35.9% think observing and monitoring the functions o Inquiry on Human Rights by the Independent Group strengthen the human rights protection in Sri Lanka. (Ref
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (64.9%), Up-Country Tami communities say they don’t know or are not sure whet functions of the Presidential Commission of Inquiry on H Group of Eminent Persons (IIGEP) would compromise Page 57)

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%) community disagree with the statement that “the new
harmful to the ordinary Tamil civilians”. (Ref. Page 50)
3.6%) community disagree that “the new emergency o democracy than helpful, in combating terrorism”. (Ref.
n asked who they think has the responsibility for the ajority of the Sinhala (62.9%), Up-Country Tamil (85.7%) unities think that the government of Sri Lanka has the of human rights. (Ref. Page 52)
hat the Government is responsible for the protection of e Sinhala (53.2%) community think the government has rights. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (71%) and the ink that the government has not done enough to protect
jority of the Sinhala (58.2%), Up-Country Tamil (54%) and ies don’t know or not sure who is responsible for the or of the Eastern University, Prof. S. Ravindranath on the age 54)
e President called for an international commission to killings, disappearances and abductions in Sri Lanka. d for a national commission to investigate the killings with ers. In this context, people were asked as to what would e the recent killings, disappearances, and abductions in Sri a (44.4%) community have no opinion in this regard while ity thinks a national commission is the best option. A amil (48.4%) community too, have no opinion. However, mil community thinks an international commission of The Muslim community has a mixed opinion, as 35% think f investigation is the best option while 21.7% think a ational observers is the best option. (Ref. Page 55)
Up-Country Tamil (79.7%) and the Muslim (76.3%) w or are not sure whether observing and monitoring the mmission of Inquiry on Human Rights by the Independent EP) would strengthen the human rights protection in Sri munity, 56.5% say they don’t know or are not sure while nitoring the functions of the Presidential Commission of he Independent Group of Eminent Persons (IIGEP) will otection in Sri Lanka. (Ref. Page 56)
.9%), Up-Country Tamil (84.7%) and the Muslim (78%) w or are not sure whether observing and monitoring the mmission of Inquiry on Human Rights by the Independent EP) would compromise the sovereignty of Sri Lanka. (Ref.
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For further information please
Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Ran
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternat
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@d Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://ww

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rther information please contact:
eep Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator entre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
70472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
2007
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Peace Confidence Index (P May 2001 – February 20
Important Issues Rating the degree of importance of five national issues
Ethnic Breakdown
8.0
33.6 Muslim
17.5 12.0
28.9
5.2
Up-Country Tamil
27.2 16.9 17.5
30.9
10.1
28.8 Sinhala
13.7
17.9
28.6
0 20 40 60
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, Up-Co
communities
100%
9.4 10.1 9.5
5.2
9.1 90%
80%
30.8 28.8
34
28 28.6
27.2
27.2
27.5
70%
60%
15.8
13.7
16.5
16.9
50%
21.4
40%
15.9 30%
17.9
12.8
17.5
16.2
20%
10%
30.9
25.9
0%
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil Musl

x
eace Confidence Index (PCI) May 2001 – February 2007
f five national issues
Ethnic Breakdown
3.6
.9
40 60 80
The Tsunami Recovery
The peace process in Sri Lanka
Conflict betw een different ethnic groups
Law and Order
The Economy
t the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim
communities
5.2
9.1 8.0
30.9
25.9
Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
ntry Tamil Muslim
The Tsunami Recovery
27.2
27.5
33.6
The peace process in Sri Lanka
Conflict betw een different ethnic 16.9
groups 21.4
17.5
Law and Order
17.5
The Economy
16.2
12.0
28.9
7
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Solutions How do you think we can end the war and have peace in S
Ethnic Breakdown
3.4 1.7 Muslim
88.1
6.8
3.2
Up-Country
1.6
Tamil
95.2
5.8
11.4 Sinhala
46.3 1.4
35.1
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
100%
4.5 5.8
2.1
3.2 1.6
3.4 1.7 90%
11.7
11.4
80%
70%
60%
46.3
50%
57.6
97.9
95.2
100
8
40%
1.4 30%
0.3 20%
35.1
10%
26
0%
6
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Fe
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil Muslim

x
war and have peace in Sri Lanka?
thnic Breakdown
95.2
Don't know /Not sure 88.1
Conducting peace talks w hile having military offensive Peace Talks
LTTE defeating the Government
Government defeating the LTTE
80 100
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and uslim communities
.2 6
3.4 1.7
6.8
Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
ry Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
Conducting peace talks w hile having military offensive Peace Talks
95.2
100
88.1
LTTE defeating the Government
Government defeating the LTTE
7
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End to the Conflict Compared to the situation of the peace process a year country, at present, in approaching a permanent settlement
Ethnic Breakdown
5
Muslim
55
13.7
48.3
0 20 40 60 80 1
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
26.3
11.7
16.1
28.3
14.3 Up-Country
50.8 Tamil
25.4 9.5
Sinhala
21.8
100%
12.3 13.7
8.7
14.3
5.3
80%
16.1
44.7
60%
41.2
21.8
54.3
50.8
40%
20.3
18.4
20%
48.3
28.3 25.4
31.6
0%
8.7 9.5
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil M

x
e peace process a year ago, how close do you think is the
a permanent settlement to the ethnic conflict?
nic Breakdown
55
8.3
60 80 100
Don't know /Not sure
Not close at all
Remains the same
50.8
Close
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities
14.3
5.3 5
9.5
'06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
ountry Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
44.7
Not close at all
3
50.8
55
Remains the same
Close
18.4
11.7
3 25.4
31.6
28.3
7
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Likelihood of War Given the current situation in the country, how likely is it t
Ethnic Breakdown
14.8 Muslim
11.5 9.8
2.4
18 4.9
31.8
0 20 40 60 80 10
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, Up
Muslim communities
28.2
26.2
8.8
37.7
19 Up-Country Tamil
4.8
6.3
15.9
34.1
54
Sinhala
100%
7
2.4
18
17
19
8.1 5.4
1
80%
24.7
2.6
4.9 10.6 8.8 4.3
4.8
8.1
1 6.3
60%
7.4
23.4
15.9 35.1
34.1
2
40%
30
54 20%
31.8
44.7
43.2
3
0%
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Fe
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil Muslim

x
country, how likely is it that war will resume?
Breakdown
54
60 80 100
War has already started
Don'y know / Not sure
Very unlikely
Somew hat unlikely
Somew hat likely
Very likely
ngst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and slim communities
19
8.1 5.4
14.8
11.5
54
43.2
37.7
Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
ntry Tamil Muslim
War has already started
4.8
8.1
Don'y know / Not sure 6.3
9.8
Very unlikely
15.9 35.1
Somew hat unlikely
26.2
Somew hat likely
Very likely
7
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Expanding Military Offensive “The Government should expand its military action inclu weaken the LTTE.” Do you agree or disagree with this stat
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
59.2
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala,
the Muslim communiti
55
50
17.3
50
6.1
Up-Country Tamil
8
6.1
Sinhala
23.5
0 20 40 60 80
100%
6.1 90%
17.8 17.3
80%
70%
27.3
23.5
51
60%
50%
92.3
87.9
40%
30%
59.2
20%
48
10%
0%
7.7 6.1
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
its military action including even to all out war in order to or disagree with this statement?
thnic Breakdown
50
Don't Know /Not sure
50
Disagree
Agree
87.9
59.2
60 80 100
%
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and e Muslim communities
6.1
.7 6.1
'06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't Know /Not sure
51.9 50
Disagree
Agree
.3
87.9
48.1
50
7
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Current Security Condition Compared to the situation a year ago, do you think the improved or worsened?
Ethnic Breakdown
1.6
19.7
Muslim
9.8
19.7
45.9 3.3
9.7
11.3
Up-Country Tamil
6.5
62.9
8.1 1.6
3.5 1.1
Sinhala
9.5
14.6
20.9
0 20 40 60 80
%
50.3

x
ago, do you think the security situation in the country has
Ethnic Breakdown
50.3
Don't know /Not sure
45.9
It has turned very bad
It has turned bad
Remains the same
62.9
It has somew hat improved
It has improved a lot
60 80 100
%
7
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Confidence I think the Government is committed to find peace through
Ethnic Breakdown
16.7
Muslim
33.3
50
31.1
Up-Country Tamil
32.8
36.1
13.5
Sinhala
12.7
73.8
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala,
the Muslim communitie
100%
90%
9.3
11 80%
13.5
12.7
18.2
31.1
23.
70%
29.5
32.8
79.9
73.8
52.3
36.1
0%
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
23. 60%
50%
40%
30%
52. 20%
10%

x
ted to find peace through talks.
thnic Breakdown
73.8
Don't know /Not sure
50
Disagree
Agree
1
60 80 100
%
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and e Muslim communities
8.2
31.1
23.7
16.7
2.3
36.1
'06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
9.5
Disagree
Agree
32.8
23.7
33.3
52.6
50
7
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I think the Government is fully capable of finding peace thro
Ethnic Breakdown
11.7
Muslim
16.7
17.8
60.6
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
56.6
71.7
21.6
32.8 Up-Country Tamil
37.7
29.5
Sinhala
100%
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
7.9 90%
20 17.8
23.3
80%
32.8
21.1
70%
21.6
41.9
37.7
0%
23.4
60%
50%
40%
71.1 30%
60.6
20%
34.9
29.5 10%

x
able of finding peace through talks.
thnic Breakdown
60.6
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and uslim communities
.9
29.5
71.7
60 80 100
%
7.9
11.7 .3
32.8
21.1
16.7
'06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
.9
Agree
37.7
71.1 71.7
7
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I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
1.6
22
Muslim
59.3
18.6
38.3
Up-Country Tamil
18.3
43.3
21.6
Sinhala
76.8
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala,
the Muslim communiti
100%
90%
20.5 21.6
25
38.3
61.4
43.3
35
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
29 80%
70%
0%
2.3
1.6 13.6 60%
50%
18.3 35
40%
77.2 76.8
30%
20%
10%

x
ind peace through talks.
thnic Breakdown
59.3
.3
43.3
76.8
60 80 100
%
7
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and e Muslim communities
29.7
22
38.3
.4
43.3
35.1
18.6
'06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
.6
Disagree
Agree
18.3 35.1
59.3
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I think the LTTE is fully capable in finding peace through tal
Ethnic Breakdown
13.8
Muslim
29.3
30.4
18.5
0 20 40 60
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala,
the Muslim communiti
20.6
18.5
56.9
39.3 Up-Country Tamil
23
37.7
Sinhala
51.1
100%
90%
27.2
30.4
25.6
39.3
13
80%
70%
24
60%
23.3
50%
52.2
51.1
23
40%
30%
51.2
62
20%
37.7
10%
0%
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
finding peace through talks.
thnic Breakdown
37.7
56.9
39.3
51.1
40 60 80
%
7
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and e Muslim communities
.2
37.7
13.5 13.8 .6
39.3
'06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure 24.3
29.3
Disagree
.3
Agree
23
62.2
56.9
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Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) Some people say that the CFA has brought many benefits that the CFA has not yielded any benefits to them. In you from the CFA or not?
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
38.7
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
33.1
44.4
14.9
55.6
26.5
Up-Country Tamil
17.6
55.9
Sinhala
46.4
0 20 40 60 80
100%
90%
14.0 14.9
6.7
26.5
1.8 10 80%
24.4
70%
60%
52.9
46.4
17.6
50%
40%
87
30%
68.9
55.9 20%
38.7
10%
0%
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
s brought many benefits to ordinary citizens while others say benefits to them. In your opinion have Sri Lankans benefited
Ethnic Breakdown
4.4
7
60 80 100
%
55.6
Don't know /Not sure
No, they have not benefited
Yes, they have benefited
55.9
46.4
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and uslim communities
6.7
1.8
10.9
24.4
26.5
44.4
Don't know /Not sure
No, they have not 17.6
benefited
Yes, they have benefited
87.3
68.9
55.9
55.6
ov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
p-Country Tamil Muslim
7
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If the answer is "Yes", please tell me three most important
Ethnic Breakdown
3.4
5.7
Muslim
12.5 13.5
4.6
9.5
27.9
66.6
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
71.1
21.7
45.2
52.2
27.6
45.6
77.2
Up-Country
1.0
10.9
Tamil
37.3
27.5
29.9
57.3
69.7
51.4
1.7
Sinhala
65.8

x
e three most important benefits of the CFA.
thnic Breakdown
66.6
Other
71.1
Benefit to minority communities
.2
77.2
Avoid division of the country
Feeling of security
57.3
Development
69.7
Freedom of movement
Ending of destruction .4
Ending of killing
Peaceful environment in the country
65.8
60 80 100
7
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How satisfied are you with the Government's commitment
Ethnic Breakdown
8.9
13.3 Muslim
24.4
44.4 8.9
12.5 12.5 Up-Country Tamil
56.3 18.8
9.8 2.1 Sinhala
8.3
44.4 35.3
0 20 40 60 80
%

x
vernment's commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
thnic Breakdown
44.4
No opinion 44.4
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
56.3
Very satisfied
60 80 100 %
7
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How satisfied are you with the LTTE’s commitment to the
Ethnic Breakdown
11.1
33.3 Muslim
37.8 15.6 2.2
15.6 9.4 Up-Country Tamil
21.9
43.8 9.4
7.4
59.5 Sinhala
30.8 2.2
0 20 40 60 80 1
%

x
TE’s commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
nic Breakdown
8
59.5
60 80 100
No opinion
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
7
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Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission What is your opinion on the need of a monitoring mission?
Ethnic Breakdown
2.2
Muslim
17.4
14.5
33.2
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
42.3
33.2
80.4
4.0 Up-Country Tamil
12.0
52.3
84.
Sinhala
100%
90%
12.8 14.5
2.3 4.5 4.0
12.0
11.5
80%
70%
60%
44.8
52.3
50%
40%
93.2
84.0
88.5
30%
20%
10%
0%
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '0
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
n
of a monitoring mission?
thnic Breakdown
80.4
84.0
52.3
60 80 100
7
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential
Is essential
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and uslim communities
4.0 12.0 11.5
2.2
17.4
.2
84.0
'06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential
Is essential
88.5
80.4
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Despite of the escalation of violence between the Govern claim that they are abide by the CFA. In this context, how this present moment ?
Ethnic Breakdown
4.3
Muslim
15.2
19.6
26.4
38.2
15.2
0 20 40 60 80
%
60.9
15.4
Up-Country Tamil
15.4 11.5
20.2
57.7
Sinhala

x
ce between the Government and the LTTE, both the parties FA. In this context, how important is the role of the SLMM at
hnic Breakdown
57.7
Don't know /Not sure 60.9
Not important
Somew hat important
Very important
.2
60 80 100
%
7
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Foreign Involvement What is your opinion on the need for an internationa negotiations, to solve the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
8.3
13.3
Muslim
1.7
5.0
18.7
21.2
7.0
26.0
0 20 40 60 80
%
71.7
20.6
Up-Country
1.6
Tamils
1.6
3.2
6.8
20.3
73.0
Sinhala

x
eed for an international third party as a facilitator to the
nflict in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
73.0
Don't know /Not sure
71.7
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
60 80 100
%
7
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The Norwegian government has been officially facilitating 2001. Please tell me your level of satisfaction with the Norw
Ethnic Breakdown
13.6
Muslim
23.7
24.5
20.4
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, Up
Muslim communities
20.5 20.4
62.7
26.2 Up-country Tamils
13.1
60.7
Sinhala
55.1
100%
90%
15.6
26.2
16.2 29.4
24.5
80%
70%
15.6
21.6 13.1
60%
50%
50.1
55.1
40%
30%
68.9
60.7 62.1
20%
10%
0%
Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07 Nov '0
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
been officially facilitating peace negotiations since November
atisfaction with the Norwegian role as facilitator.
hnic Breakdown
60.7
Don't know /Not sure
62.7
Not satisfied at all
Satisfied
55.1
60 80 100
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim communities
16.2
13.6 26.2
60.7 62.1 62.7
6 Feb '07 Nov '06 Feb '07
ountry Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
21.6
23.7
Not satisfied at all 13.1
Satisfied
7
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Please state if you approve or disapprove of Norway contin
Ethnic Breakdown
6.7
Muslim
6.7
10.6
30.0
56.7
18.3
Up-country
6.7 Tamils
20.0
14.3
57.1 18.0
0 20 40 60 80 10 %
55.0
Sinhala

x
pprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace process.
Ethnic Breakdown
55.0
Refuse to answ er
Disapprove 56.7
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
57.1
60 80 100
7
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Please state the most suitable country that should play process.
Ethnic Breakdown
5.4
11.9
23.7
Muslim
5.1
25.4
27.1 6.8
17.5 Up-country Tamils
9
44.8 20.8 15.9 4.1
0 20 40 60 80
%
57.1 4.8
17.5 3.2
Sinhala

x
untry that should play the role of facilitator in the peace
thnic Breakdown
57.1
8
60 80 100
Other Country
No opinion
India
United States of America
Norw ay
Japan
7
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What is your opinion of the need for India's involvement in
Ethnic Breakdown
8.3 8.3
Muslim
1.7
16.7
1.7
27.8 13.7 8.5 5.3
24.4
0 20 40 60 80 1
%
63.3
11.1 1.6 Up-country
1.6 Tamils
4.8 1.6
20.3
79.4
Sinhala

x
for India's involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process?
Ethnic Breakdown
79.4
Don't know /Not sure
63.3
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact
Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
60 80 100
7
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The Government of President Mahinda Rajapakse How much confidence do you have on the President M successful military campaign against the LTTE?
Ethnic Breakdown
13.1
Muslim
26.2
9.9
48
0 20 40 60
%
44.3
6
16.4
23.4
Up-Country Tamil
31.3
39.1
6.3
Sinhala
36.1

x
nt Mahinda Rajapakse
ave on the President Mahinda Rajapakse's ability to wage a t the LTTE?
nic Breakdown
48
Don't know /Not sure 44.3
Have no confidence at all
Have little confidence
Have lot of confidence 9.1
.1
60 80
7
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How much confidence do you have on the President Mah the economic burden of the Sri Lankans?
Ethnic Breakdown
11.9
Muslim
27.1
16.3
52.5
8.5
20.6
Up-Country Tamil
31.7
44.4
3.2
16.4
Sinhala
24
43.3
0 20 40 60
%

x
ve on the President Mahinda Rajapakse's capacity in reducing nkans?
Ethnic Breakdown
43.3
52.5
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
Have no confidence at all
Have little confidence
Have lot of confidence 44.4 .7
7
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There is speculation that President Mahinda Rajapake will approve or disapprove of such a snap poll?
Ethnic Breakdown
10
Muslim
30
20.8
12.5
0 20 40 60 80
%
60
32.8
Up-Country Tamil
21.9
45.3
Sinhala
66.8

x
t Mahinda Rajapake will soon announce a snap poll. Will you nap poll?
Ethnic Breakdown
45.3
Don't know /Not sure 60
Disapprove
Approve
66.8
60 80 100
%
7
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How successful is President Mahinda Rajapake in preserving
Ethnic Breakdown
20
Muslim
23.3
12.5
35.6
0 20 40 60
%
51.7 5
27
Up-Country Tamil
28.6
41.3
3.2
Sinhala
4.1
47.8

x
da Rajapake in preserving law and order in the country?
Ethnic Breakdown
35.6
Don't know /Not sure 51.7
Not successful at all
Somew hat Successful
Very Successful 41.3 6
40 60 80
%
47.8
7
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Crossovers Do you approve or disapprove of the crossover of the members to the Government on the 28th of January 2006?
Ethnic Breakdown
15
Muslim
41.7
24.5
37.9
0 20 40 60
%
43.3
37.6
43.8
Up-Country Tamil
39.1
17.2
Sinhala

x
of the crossover of the 18 UNP members and six SLMC he 28th of January 2006?
thnic Breakdown
41.7
43.8
37.9
40 60 80 %
Don't Know /Not sure 43.3
Disapprove
Approve
39.1
37.6
7
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If you approve, why do you approve such crossovers?
The response of the Sinhala co
60
5.5
Its an expression of democracy
52.7
40
%
25
20
0 0
* The findings of the Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim comm sample size.
It strengthen the president and the government
It w ill help the government's present w ar against the LTTE
It w ill help to sideline the JVP

x
ve such crossovers?*
nse of the Sinhala community
2.5
11.8
0
2.5
the nt's ar LTTE
It w ill help to
Frustrated w ith
Other Don't know /Not sideline the JVP
the lack of
sure internal party democracy in the UNP
il and the Muslim communities are not presented due to the low
7
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If you disapprove, why do you disapprove such crossovers?
The response of the Sinhala com
60
9.5
Its bad for democracy
48.9
40
%
20
7.1
0
† The findings of the Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim comm sample size.
It w ill be a bigger burden to the public as many of the members w ere given ministerial portfolios
It is against the Mahinda Chinthanaya
It led abroga MoU be UNP and

x
pprove such crossovers?†
se of the Sinhala community
7.1
5.7
26.5
2.4
s against the
Mahinda hinthanaya
It led to the
Other Don't know /Not abrogation of the
sure MoU betw een the UNP and the SLFP
il and the Muslim communities are not presented due to the low
7
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All Party Representative Committee (APRC) To what extent are you informed of the content of the ma
The response of the Sinhala com
80
70.6
60
%
40
20
1 0
Very informed Somew hat informed Not informe
‡ The findings of the Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim comm sample size.
13.7

x
mmittee (APRC)
of the content of the majority report?‡
e of the Sinhala community
70.6
14.7
formed Not informed Don't know /Not sure
il and the Muslim communities are not presented due to the low
7
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Do you agree or disagree with the proposed findings of the
The response of the Sinhala comm
60
41.1 41.1 40
%
20
0
Agree Disagree
* The findings of the Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim comm sample size.

x
proposed findings of the majority report?*
of the Sinhala community
41.1
17.9
Disagree Don't know /Not sure
il and the Muslim communities are not presented due to the low
7
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Do you think the government should move ahead in find Tissa Vitharana’s report?*
The response of the Sinhala com
60
40
34.7
%
20 20
0
Yes No
* The findings of the Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim comm sample size.

x
ould move ahead in finding a southern consensus based on
e of the Sinhala community
34.7
45.2
No Don't know /Not sure
il and the Muslim communities are not presented due to the low
7
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Trade Union Strikes Do you think that any strike which is critical of the governm
Ethnic Breakdown
15.5 12.1 Muslim
36.2 36.2
21.3
Up-Country
3.3
Tamil
24.6
23.3
6.9
16.4
40.3
0 20 40 60 8
%
50.8
13.1 Sinhala

x
is critical of the government is;
hnic Breakdown
.3
Don't know /Not sure
An expression of unpatriotic behavior An expression of helping the LTTE An expression of political instability 50.8
An expression of democracy
60 80
7
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Corruption in the Public Sector Do you believe that the corruption in the public sector h five years?
Ethnic Breakdown
15
Muslim
16.7
30.1
39.5
0 20 40 60
%
6
35.9
Up-Country Tamil
12.5
30.3
51.6
Sinhala

x
ctor
n in the public sector has increased or decreased in the last
Ethnic Breakdown
39.5
68.3
Don't know /Not sure
It has decreased
35.9
It has increased
.3
40 60 80
%
51.6
1
7
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How successful is President Mahinda Rajapake in reducing c
Ethnic Breakdown
20.2
27.9
Muslim
39.3
26.5
0 20 40
%
32.8
10.3
42.2
Up-Country Tamil
26.6
29.7
1.6
Sinhala
43

x
da Rajapake in reducing corruption in the public sector?
thnic Breakdown
27.9
43
40 60
%
39.3
6.5
32.8
Don't know /Not sure
Not successful at all
Somew hat Successful
Very Successful 29.7
42.2
6.6
7
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New Emergency Regulations On the 6th of December 2006, the new set of emergenc Public Security ordinance titled Emergency (Prevention o 2006) were introduced in order to suppress terrorism in th
How important are the new emergency regulations in the prevent terrorism?*
The response of the Sinhala co
80
71.9
60
%
40
20
12.9
5.9
0
Very Important Somew hat important Not Impor
* The findings of the Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim comm sample size.

x
s
he new set of emergency regulations promulgated under the mergency (Prevention of Terrorism and Specified Activities
suppress terrorism in the country.
rgency regulations in the government's effort to combat and
nse of the Sinhala community
5.9
9.2
mportant Not Important Don't know /Not sure
il and the Muslim communities are not presented due to the low
7
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"Some people say that the new emergency regulations co civilians". Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
The response of the Sinhala com
80
67.6
60
%
40
20
6.4
0
Agree Disagree
* The findings of the Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim comm sample size.

x
mergency regulations could be harmful to the ordinary Tamil e with this statement?*
e of the Sinhala community
67.6
26
Disagree Don't know /Not sure
il and the Muslim communities are not presented due to the low
7
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"Some people say that the new emergency regulations ar helpful, in combating terrorism" What is your opinion in th
The response of the Sinhala commun
80
63.6
60
%
40
20
3.9
0
Agree Disagree
* The findings of the Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim comm sample size.

x
mergency regulations are more harmful to democracy than hat is your opinion in this regard?*
the Sinhala community
63.6
32.5
Disagree Don't know /Not sure
il and the Muslim communities are not presented due to the low
7
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Human Rights Abuses Who do you think has the responsibility for the protection
Ethnic Breakdown
12.4
2.7 Muslim
5.9
2.2
24.4 4.8
6.7
62.9
0 20 40 60 80 10
%
80.3
11.1 10.7 1.1 Up-Country Tamil
1.4 2.2 2.1
20.1
2.9
6.4
85.7
Sinhala

x
sibility for the protection of human rights?
ic Breakdown
62.9
Don't know /Not sure
Security forces 80.3
Civil Society
International community
The Parliament
The LTTE
85.7
Government of Sri Lanka
60 80 100
7
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Do you think the government has done enough to protect
Ethnic Breakdown
26.2
Muslim
53.2
0 20 40 60
%
49.7
24.1
15.1
Up-Country Tamil
13.9
24
Sinhala
22.9

x
done enough to protect human rights?
Ethnic Breakdown
49.7
53.2
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
No
Yes
71
7
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Killings and Abductions On the 15th of December 2006, the Vice Chancellor Ravindranath was abducted in Colombo.
Who do you think is responsible for this abduction?
Ethnic Breakdown
1.8
64.3
Muslim
3.6
25 5.4
7.9
4.3
58.2
0.7 0.8
31.6
0 20 40 60 80
%
54
Up-Country Tamil
1.6
4.8
4.3
31.7
Sinhala

x
6, the Vice Chancellor of the Eastern University, Prof. S ombo.
or this abduction?
ic Breakdown
64.3
58.2
60 80 100
Refuse to answ er
Don't know /Not sure
Other
54
Karuna faction
Security Forces
LTTE
7
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Commission of Inquiry The President called for an international commission to disappearances and abductions in Sri Lanka. Subsequently commission to investigate the killings with an international
What would be the best out of the following to investiga and abductions in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
5
25 1.7 Muslim
21.7 16.7
35
48.4
Up-Country Tamil
3.2
11.3 4.8
32.3
44.4 5 Sinhala
17.2
28.4
0 20 40 60 80 1
%

x
rnational commission to investigate into the recent killings, Sri Lanka. Subsequently the president called for a national gs with an international panel of observers.
he following to investigate the recent killings, disappearances
thnic Breakdown
4
60 80 100
No opinion
No need for any commission
A national commission w ith international observers
A national Commission
An international Commission of investigation
7
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Do you think that observing and monitoring the function Inquiry on Human Rights by the Independent Group strengthen the human rights protection in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
35.9
76.3
Muslim
6.8
16.9
56.5
7.9
0 20 40 60 80
%
79.7 Up-Country Tamil
10.2
10.2
Sinhala

x
monitoring the functions of the Presidential Commission of e Independent Group of Eminent Persons (IIGEP) would ction in Sri Lanka?
hnic Breakdown
56.5
76.3
60 80 100
Don't know /Not sure
No
Yes
79.7
7
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Do you think that observing and monitoring the function Inquiry on Human Rights by Independent Group of Emine sovereignty in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
9.5
78
Muslim
11.9
10.2
64.9
25.5
0 20 40 60 80
%
84.7 Up-Country Tamil
11.9
3.4
Sinhala

x
monitoring the functions of the Presidential Commission of pendent Group of Eminent Persons (IIGEP) will compromise
thnic Breakdown
64.9
78
60 80 100
Don't know /Not sure
No
84.7
Yes
7
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Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in February 200
DISTRICT TOT Colombo 14 Gampaha 17 Kalutara 82 Kandy 97 Matale 36 Nuwara Eliya 57 Galle 80 Matara 62 Hambantota 42 Kurunegala 11 Puttalam 58 Anuradhapura 59 Polonnaruwa 30 Badulla 61 Monaragala 32 Ratnapura 85 Kegalle 64 NATIONAL 128
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in February 2007
ETHNICITY TOT Sinhala 115 Muslim 64 Up-Country Tamil 60 NATIONAL 128

ex
Annex
ribution in February 2007
TOTAL 149 171 82 97 36 57 80 62 42 118 58 59 30 61 32 85 64 1282
ibution in February 2007
Y TOTAL
1158 64 60 1282
2007
i

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Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) s in public confidence levels towards the peace process ove be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the February 2004, PCI was conducted bi-monthly, howeve decided to conduct the study quarterly to make the PCI mo
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1800 respondents during each phase of the capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of te undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace pro factors, the ethnic factor, which is the most important and i been accommodated in this model.
The total sample is distributed amongst 17 administrat excluding the North and East provinces due to the escala to the survey. The sample size assigned to each strat population proportions. However, some districts are o heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a distr of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Se primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sam Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected random using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 199 Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensure a m within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a max GND. Within a given GND, the enumerator is advised to s proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand the random selection of households.
In the case of urban areas, the interviewer is instructed t households, thus resulting in the interview-taking place at final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the ho ensuring that each member of the household has an equ PCI sample.
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model do analysis at the same level of precision.

ex
nfidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations the peace process over time it is essential that the study al pauses during the study. Hence, from May 2001 to d bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI rly to make the PCI more efficient.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of ring each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to ty within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is ion on the peace process is influenced by a number of e most important and influential, is the sole factor that has
ongst 17 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, ces due to the escalation of violence in the months prior ssigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.
r ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit ons of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of
frame.
work and ensure a maximum dispersion of the sample ed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a merator is advised to select a starting point randomly and ndom walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure .
rviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the erview-taking place at every alternative household. As the is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus household has an equal chance of being selected to the
subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. hat the PCI model does not support the regional level on.
2007
ii

Page 62
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