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An Opinio = حبالہ
Peace Confider
ALSO N THIS WAVE...
TTE AIRSTRIKES
SLFPPROPOSALS
RICHARDBOUCHER'S VISIT
COST OF LIVING
FEDERALDEBATE

in Poll On Peace
الكبير.
Ce lindex (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
JUNE 2007
Social Indicator

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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• INTRODUCTION
• KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOP
• FINDINGS AT A GLANCE
• PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS
I
MPORTANT ISSUES
S
OLUTIONS
END TO THE CONFLICT
L
IKELIHOOD OF
W
AR
EXPANDING MILITARY OFFENSIVE
SECURITY SITUATION
C
ONFIDENCE
CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT (CFA)
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION (SLMM)
F
OREIGN
I
NVOLVEMENT
• POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
INCIDENTS THAT CONCERNS SRI LANKANS
I
NTERNALLY
D
ISPLACED
P
EOPLE
(IDP
S
)
M
EDIA
F
REEDOM
EMERGENCY REGULATIONS
LTTE A
IR
S
TRIKES
SLFP PROPOSALS
HUMAN RIGHTS
R
ICHARD
B
OUCHER
’
S
V
ISIT
BRITISH ALL PARTY PARLIAMENTARY GROUP (APPG)
COST OF LIVING
F
EDERAL
D
EBATE
• ANNEX

ex
01 TIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 02 07 (PCI) 16
16
17
18
19
20
22
24
28
(SLMM) 31
33
LANKANS 37
(IDP
S
) 40
39
42
45
48
53
56
Y GROUP (APPG) 59
61
67
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I
NTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop
public confidence in the peace process using a set of s
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set o
economic and political developments in order to gauge p
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will pro
useful barometer of Sri Lankan polity’s opinions, and ens
given due importance and incorporated into the policy deb
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The survey is carried out using a structured questionnai
interviews amongst a 1300 randomly selected sample.
administrative districts, excluding the North and East due
weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of
surveyed.
This is the twenty sixth wave of the PCI study, which w
publication presents only the top-line results of the June 20
The results of these twenty six waves offer us data for a
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions o
developments. The results are subjected to a 3% margin of
** This particular wave of the PCI only covers the Sinhal
communities in the areas outside North and East.

Index
I
NTRODUCTION
-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
rocess using a set of standardized questions, which remain
other is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
ents in order to gauge public opinion on the peace process,
m one wave to another.
a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
olity’s opinions, and ensure that such collective opinions are
rated into the policy debate.
a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
domly selected sample. This survey was conducted in 17
the North and East due to the escalation of violence. Data is
ographic composition of the districts in which the sample was
the PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This
line results of the June 2007 survey.
aves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public
ging from perceptions of war and peace to current political
jected to a 3% margin of error.
I only covers the Sinhala, Muslim and the Up-Country Tamil
North and East.
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K
EY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPM
2007
• The UNP MPs who crossed over to the Government recently s and had no intention of leaving it. Calling themselves the democ who are now ministers - R.A.D. Sirisena, Hemakumara Nanay would not give up the portfolios that were awarded by the Go deadline given by Opposition UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa yesterday sacked Ministers Anu Sripathi Sooriyaarachchi from their ministerial portfolios, amids to go in for a snap general election soon. (Daily Mirror on 10 Febr
• The UNP,taking what is seen as its toughest stance in recent conflict has to go before the people at a referendum. Having v UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayake told "The Island" that proposals on resolving the ethnic conflict to the All Party Repr at, has to then be placed before the people at a referendum." (Th
• Visiting President Mahinda Rajapaksa on February 12 hit ou government of human rights violations while being blind to the Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe for tearing off an MoU that th country’s peace effort and even vowed not to have dealings w Mirror on 14 February 2007)
• Defence spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella said yesterday he about the findings of UN Special Advisor Allan Rock, as he misleading information on abductions in the East. After touring evidence that some elements in the security forces were assist the Batticaloa district to be enlisted as combatants. (Daily Mirror
• The government told parliament yesterday there was no basi Sooriyarachchi of secret deals with the LTTE while Mr. Sooriay remained silent though he last week said he would soon give Ratnasiri Wickramanayake in response to questions said he coul allegations as there were no such deals. (Daily Mirror on 21 Febru
• JVP parliamentarians yesterday staged a demonstration in Parli stand on the request to abrogate the Ceasefire Agreement with soon after JVP parliamentary group leader Wimal Weerawansa signed between the former UNP government and the LTTE exac 2007)
• The SCOPP yesterday reiterated that the Ceasefire Agr Wickremesinghe regime would remain valid until it was termina by the Norwegians. The government peace secretariat in a sta upon 14-days notice of termination given by either party - the February 2007)
• The Government said yesterday that during the first three and sovereignty had been threatened and in the process of changing SLMM claims that during the past 15 months period, nearl Government Defence Spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella said “ during the first three and a half years the security forces were c wings all over the Eastern Province.” (Daily Mirror on 23 February
• A group of Diplomats had a close call, with two receiving mino Choppers, carrying the group to a meeting in Batticaloa yest policemen, three STF soldiers, two airmen and a student we February 2007)
• The UNP crossovers, who call themselves the UNP Democratic select committee, to look into the COPE report, which w Democratic Group Member, Sports Minister, Gamini Lokuge, to committee should be appointed to look into the report. (Daily M
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IONAL DEVELOPMENTS
F
EBRUARY
2007 – J
UNE 2007
Government recently said yesterday they were still part of the party g themselves the democratic faction of the UNP, the three dissidents na, Hemakumara Nanayakkara and Rajitha Senaratne - insisted they ere awarded by the Government and return to the UNP before the er Ranil Wickremesinghe. (Daily Mirror on 09 February 2007) y sacked Ministers Anura Bandaranaike, Mangala Samaraweera and isterial portfolios, amidst speculation that the President might decide n. (Daily Mirror on 10 February 2007)
ughest stance in recent years said that any solution to the ethnic a referendum. Having vowed to take the battle to the government, ke told "The Island" that the SLFP should first submit its long overdue lict to the All Party Representative Committee."Any solution arrived
ple at a referendum." (The Island on 10 February 2007) on February 12 hit out at European countries for accusing the while being blind to the LTTE atrocities.He also blamed Opposition ring off an MoU that the two parties entered into to support the d not to have dealings with anyone who betrays the country. (Daily
wella said yesterday he was now inclined to withdraw his remarks isor Allan Rock, as he believed Mr. Rock had been provided with n the East. After touring the East, Mr. Rock had said he had credible curity forces were assisting the Karuna faction to abduct children in ombatants. (Daily Mirror on 15 February 2007) rday there was no basis to allegations by ousted minister Sripathi LTTE while Mr. Sooriayarachchi who was in the House at that stage aid he would soon give details of the alleged deals. Prime Minister to questions said he could not submit any report to parliament on the
(Daily Mirror on 21 February 2007) a demonstration in Parliament urging the government to declare its easefire Agreement with immediate effect. The session turned stormy er Wimal Weerawansa made a statement denouncing the agreement ment and the LTTE exactly five years ago. (Daily Mirror on 23 February
at the Ceasefire Agreement signed in 2002 under the Ranil valid until it was terminated as stipulated in the agreement facilitated eace secretariat in a statement said the CFA would terminate only en by either party - the government or the LTTE. (Daily Mirror on 23
uring the first three and half-year period of the CFA, the country’s the process of changing it the violence had increased. Responding to 5 months period, nearly 4000 people were killed in the conflict, eliya Rambukwella said “The sovereignty of the country was lost as he security forces were confined to barracks and the LTTE spread its
aily Mirror on 23 February 2007) with two receiving minor injuries, in an LTTE mortar attack on two eeting in Batticaloa yesterday. Italian Ambassador Pio Mariani, four irmen and a student were injured in the attack. (The Island on 28
ves the UNP Democratic Group, yesterday called for a Parliamentary COPE report, which was presented to Parliament recently. UNP nister, Gamini Lokuge, told a press conference yesterday, that a select
into the report. (Daily Mirror on 01 March 2007)
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• In the aftermath of the recovery of five unidentified bodies in charred bodies in Anuradhapura district yesterday morning, Po was responsible for the killings. The police yesterday morning fo in the Anuradhapura district. Referring to recent ransom ki yesterday police and security forces personnel had been alleged crack down on mounting abductions and killings. (Daily Mirror on
• The United States yesterday came down hard on both the Gove rights abuses last year most notably since the breakdown o assassination attempt on Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaks
• The Government said yesterday recent criticisms and accusatio and the Government for alleged complicity in abductions and dis were unfounded. A statement from the Government peace sec the agencies, which were making the allegations had adopted Mirror on 09 March 2007)
• The Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) will propose the establ sub region for Up-Country Tamils, with adequate powers to r will be a part of the unit comprising the present Central and submit their proposals to the All Party Representative Com formulating a power sharing package for the resolution of the n of all the political parties. (Daily Mirror on 12 March 2007)
• As violence escalates in the uncleared areas of Batticaloa, mor enter cleared areas, fearing heavy fighting between Governme Tigers said, while the ICRC said that over 100,000 people were civilians have arrived in the Government controlled areas in the to constant harassment by the LTTE and in fear of their childre a senior military official said. (Daily Mirror on 12 March 2007)
• Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe challenged President made by former Minister Sripathi Sooriyarachchi that the UPFA run up to the Presidential Elections in 2005. Addressing a pu asked why Mr. Rajapaksa was remaining silent regarding the alleg
• The unprecedented exodus of internally displaced persons in t resulted in 155,568 persons fleeing LTTE held areas and ente districts. They are housed in 75 welfare centres including 12 go Minister for Disaster Relief Amir Ali told The Island yesterday (1
• The Eelam Peoples’ Revolutionary Liberation Front – Padma Rajapakse’s government to adopt a Federal Constitution whic political party gets a two thirds majority in parliament.The EPRL the LTTE factor from the Tamil political arena would hasten the genuine devolution. (The Island on 26 March 2007)
• Although low flying LTTE aircraft which carried out yesterday’ detection by radar, they failed to hit the intended targets, the Ukrainian MIG 27s due to the SLAF being on a heightened stat sightings of unidentified aircraft about a hour before the attack. effort would have suffered an irreparable loss, the military investigate the unprecedented attack. The Island learns that in part of the SLAF and lapses which may have facilitated the unhin (Daily Mirror on 27 March 2007)
• IANS: India views with serious concern the air attack on Sri La Tigers, a giant leap for an insurgent group that has again prove adversities. It is the first time a rebel outfit in the world has c support. (Daily Mirror on 27 March 2007)
• Hours after the LTTE air attack on the Katunayake Air Force ba called on the international community to help arrest the ‘si acquired air power for the first time in the conflict’s history. (Da
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ve unidentified bodies in Muthurajawela on March 3 and five more t yesterday morning, Police chief Victor Perera said a secret group lice yesterday morning found five charred bodies at Thirappane area g to recent ransom kidnappings of civilians the police chief said rsonnel had been allegedly involved in those incidents and vowed to d killings. (Daily Mirror on 07 March 2007) n hard on both the Government and the LTTE for large scale human since the breakdown of the ceasefire agreement and the failed tary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa. (Daily Mirror on 08 March 2007) t criticisms and accusations levelled against the armed forces, police city in abductions and disappearances in certain parts of the country, Government peace secretariat said there was no confirmation that allegations had adopted any procedures to verify the claims. (Daily
) will propose the establishment of five regional councils, including a h adequate powers to resolve the national conflict. The sub region the present Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces. The CWC will rty Representative Committee (APRC) assigned with the task of r the resolution of the national problem by incorporating viewpoints n 12 March 2007)
areas of Batticaloa, more than 40,000 people have been forced to ting between Government forces and the LTTE, both military and ver 100,000 people were displaced .“By yesterday, a total of 40,027 t controlled areas in the Batticaloa district in the last few days, due d in fear of their children being forcibly conscripted into the LTTE,” r on 12 March 2007) ghe challenged President Mahinda Rajapaksa to disprove allegations iyarachchi that the UPFA signed a secret deal with the LTTE in the 2005. Addressing a public rally in Gampaha Mr. Wickremesinghe silent regarding the allegation. (Daily Mirror on 12 March 2007) ly displaced persons in the Batticaloa and Trincomalee Districts has TE held areas and entering government administered areas in the e centres including 12 government schools in the Batticaloa District, d The Island yesterday (16). (The Island on 17 March 2007) eration Front – Padmanabha (EPRLF-P) wants President Mahinda deral Constitution which will also ensure that no ethnic group or y in parliament.The EPRLF-P expressed the belief that the removal of l arena would hasten the ongoing process towards a meaningful and arch 2007) h carried out yesterday’s attack on Katunayake SLAF base escaped he intended targets, the Israeli built Kfirs and the recently acquired ing on a heightened state of alert following unconfirmed reports of hour before the attack. Had they succeeded, the government’s war rable loss, the military said, emphasizing the need to thoroughly The Island learns that investigators would probe negligence on the have facilitated the unhindered movement of aircraft from the Vanni.
the air attack on Sri Lanka's only international airport by the Tamil oup that has again proved its unlimited resilience even amid severe utfit in the world has carried out an aerial attack without external ) Katunayake Air Force base, Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa y to help arrest the ‘sinister’ trend where a terrorist outfit had the conflict’s history. (Daily Mirror on 27 March 2007)
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• The Standard Newspaper Group, yesterday decided to suspe Standard’ newspapers from this week due to financial constra financial constraints on the group are relaxed we will not be i newspaper Editor Tilak Kuruwita Bandara told the Daily Mirror.
• Sri Lanka is to launch a massive campaign against Amnesty Inte the government describes as a “campaign to demoralize the Sri AI announced it was planning to launch a campaign titled “Play Europe and South Asia where it would get the celebrities an symbolize the Cricket World Cup - with the words “Play by r 2007)
• Sacked minister Sripathi Sooriyaarachchi came to parliament f bombshell charging that the government gave Rs. 200 million to to the presidential election. Mr. Sooriyarachchi told parliame through various means even via Cabinet papers. (Daily Mirror on
• Several leading local Non Governmental Organisations which p Rights Council (UNHRC) session are perturbed at being labell civilians and victims of human rights violations in Sri Lanka. The the Centre for Policy Alternatives, Civil Monitoring Commite Rights Documentation Centre, International Movement against Society Trust and Rights Now. The local NGOs say they are tarnish their image as human rights defenders by accusing th discrediting the country and undermining the government’s ef Mirror on 11 April 2007)
• The Sri Lankan government is abusing antiterrorism legislation human rights abuses, official corruption, or otherwise question with the LTTE, the Human Rights Watch charged yesterday. T had interfered with and sought to restrict the exercise of free under its control. (Daily Mirror on 13 April 2007)
• In the wake of Amnesty International (AI)’s highly controversial Lanka, the government has turned down a request by the intern carry out an assessment. (Daily Mirror on 17 April 2007)
• Media watch-dog Free Media Movement yesterday expresse Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa to intimidate ‘Daily Mirror’ Edi urged the Government to make its position public regarding this on free media essentially ridicules this Government’s promises the FMM said. (Daily Mirror on 19 April 2007)
• Security forces thwarted an LTTE air attack on the strategic Pala low flying aircraft dropped two improvised explosive devices ne after security forces fire forced it to turn back, a senior Airforce approached the Palaly High Security Zone (HSZ), he said. (The Is
• The air Tiger attack on Colombo yesterday triggered panic am business establishments here with two main airlines suspend Gotabhaya Rajapaksa held extensive talks with chiefs of the thr the Tiger aircraft found the way in and out of Colombo, despite April 2007)
• Sacked Minister Sripathi Sooriyaarachchi was yesterday released who in a tough release order said he was shocked and puzzle Magistrate had remanded a person of high standing for more tha
• The TNA and other Tamil political parties yesterday scoffed at asserting the package would never fulfill the political aspiratio proposals at the May Day rally held on April 30. The party pr power devolution rather than the present provincial councils. (D
• Most political parties representing Parliament have now reject resolve the national question, with the JVP blaming the ruling p to preserve the unitary character of the country. (Daily Mirror on
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erday decided to suspend the publishing of ‘Maubima’ and ‘Sunday due to financial constraints, an official of the group said. “Until the relaxed we will not be in a position to publish the paper,” Maubima ra told the Daily Mirror. (Daily Mirror on 29 March 2007) ign against Amnesty International (AI) for its decision to launch what gn to demoralize the Sri Lankan cricket team at the World Cup”. The a campaign titled “Play by the rules” in the Caribbean as well as in ld get the celebrities and public to sign foam cricket balls - which ith the words “Play by rules” written on it. (Daily Mirror on 01 April
hi came to parliament from remand jail yesterday to drop another t gave Rs. 200 million to the LTTE in a secret deal during the run-up iyarachchi told parliament that the funds were given to the Tigers t papers. (Daily Mirror on 06 April 2007) al Organisations which participated in the just concluded UN Human perturbed at being labelled as “traitors” for highlighting the plight of lations in Sri Lanka. The NGOs which have raised objections include vil Monitoring Commitee, Free Media Movement, INFORM Human tional Movement against All Forms of Racial Discrimination, Law & cal NGOs say they are saddened at attempts by certain parties to efenders by accusing them of acting against the nation’s interests, ing the government’s efforts to end the conflict in Sri Lanka. (Daily
antiterrorism legislation to clamp down on journalists who expose n, or otherwise question the government’s handling of the civil war ch charged yesterday. The rights group said all sides in the civil war trict the exercise of free speech and freedom of the media in areas ril 2007)
I)’s highly controversial campaign to target human rights abuses in Sri n a request by the international rights group to visit the country and
17 April 2007) ent yesterday expressed its outrage at the attempt by Defence idate ‘Daily Mirror’ Editor on April 27 morning. The FMM has also ition public regarding this incident. “We strongly feel this latest assault Government’s promises to uphold and strengthen media freedom,” 007) tack on the strategic Palaly air base in the early hours of yesterday. A ised explosive devices near the Myladdy beach in the Jaffna peninsula n back, a senior Airforce official said. Troops fired at the aircraft as it ne (HSZ), he said. (The Island on 25 April 2007)
rday triggered panic among international air travel and multinational o main airlines suspending flights to Sri Lanka. Defense Secretary ks with chiefs of the three-armed forces and police to ascertain how out of Colombo, despite tight air defense security. (Daily Mirror on 30
i was yesterday released on bail by the Awissawella High Court Judge was shocked and puzzled over the manner in which the Kaduwela igh standing for more than a month. (Daily Mirror on 01 May 2007) ties yesterday scoffed at the SLFP proposals for devolution of power, fill the political aspirations of their people. The SLFP submitted its n April 30. The party proposed that district councils be the unit of nt provincial councils. (Daily Mirror on 02 May 2007) liament have now rejected the SLFP power devolution proposals to JVP blaming the ruling party for the non-inclusion of its commitment
country. (Daily Mirror on 03 May 2007)
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• London-May 2: A British Parliamentary Group has decided to w between the Sri Lankan Government, the Liberation of T Government who are currently mediating in the dispute. The Pa Labour MP Keith Vaz to promote ‘peace with justice and dignit finding a solution to the ethnic conflict in the country. It wou General Don McKinnon to meet the group to discuss the situat worst affected areas of the conflict. Mr. Vaz, who is former M Office, said the creation of the All-Party Parliamentary Grou showing the commitment of the British Parliament to a peacefu 2007)
• Britain yesterday expressed concern over the volatile situatio government and the LTTE to fulfil their peace commitments de February last year. In a debate on Sri Lanka at the British Hous and Commonwealth Office Minister Dr. Kim Howells said a Br India shortly in an effort to get the peace talks back on track. (Da
• The Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) has taken a decision to withdr the SLFP fails to include the unitary character of the State a proposals. A spokesman for the JHU said that this decision w lengthy discussion on the SLFP proposals. (Daily Mirror on 05 Ma
• Richard Boucher, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and today on a three day visit. Mr. Boucher will discuss the peace pr with President Mahinda Rajapaksa, government ministers, oppo and civil society leaders in Colombo and Jaffna, the US Embassy 2007)
• The co-chairs to the Tokyo donor conference – The United Sta – will meet in Colombo tomorrow to take stock of the vola sources told the Daily Mirror. Richard Boucher, the visiting U Central Asian affairs will attend the meeting with the co-chairs over the fate of the ceasefire agreement as a result of the deter May 2007)
• The TNA told parliament yesterday the LTTE air operations w to attack any other powerful country like India. Speaking at t emergency, TNA front-liner S. Gajendran congratulated the LTT to attack identified enemy targets within Sri Lanka and not to att
• In the aftermath of the recent LTTE air attacks, India’s defenc threat from the Tiger air power and discussed various counter source told the Daily Mirror.” The meeting was held to work decides to launch an aerial attack on India,” the source said. (Dai
• Former Karuna associate Pillayan yesterday vowed to continue reconciliation with Karuna Amman from whose faction he brok Mirror on 12 May 2007)
• The SLFP Executive Committee yesterday unanimously endorse resolve the national question within a unitary state. Addressing Rajapaksa said the proposals were drafted in keeping with the SL would not change its stand to please the coalition allies. (Daily M
• Amnesty International on May 23 described the crisis in Sri Lan the human rights situation in the country saw a serious de committed allegedly by the Government, the LTTE and the Karu
• British Parliamentarian and ruling Labour party member Keith V people concerned with the conflict in Sri Lanka were being groups and media in Sri Lanka. In an exclusive interview with Party Parliamentary Group, formed with the intention of gettin peaceful solution, condemned “without reservation” any and all by any group involved. (Daily Mirror on 26 May 2007)
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Group has decided to work towards arranging a summit in London t, the Liberation of Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the Norwegian ng in the dispute. The Parliament formed an all-party group headed by ce with justice and dignity’ for Tamils in Sri Lanka and work towards t in the country. It would also invite the Commonwealth Secretary oup to discuss the situation in the country and visit it, particularly the r. Vaz, who is former Minister for the Foreign and Commonwealth arty Parliamentary Group (APPG) for Tamils is an important step Parliament to a peaceful and just settlement. (Daily Mirror on 03 May
ver the volatile situation in Sri Lanka and the failure of both the r peace commitments despite assurances given at the Geneva talks in anka at the British House of Commons on May 2, the British Foreign . Kim Howells said a British envoy was due to hold discussions with e talks back on track. (Daily Mirror on 04 May 2007) ken a decision to withdraw its support to the SLFP led government if haracter of the State and give foremost place to Buddhism, in its said that this decision was taken by the party last evening, after a ls. (Daily Mirror on 05 May 2007) y of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, will arrive in Colombo will discuss the peace process, humanitarian issues, and human rights ernment ministers, opposition party leaders, senior military officials d Jaffna, the US Embassy announced yesterday. (Daily Mirror on 08 May
ference – The United States, the European Union, Norway and Japan take stock of the volatile situation in the country, well informed Boucher, the visiting US Assistant Secretary of State for South and eting with the co-chairs ambassadors who are said to be concerned t as a result of the deteriorating security situation. (Daily Mirror on 09
e LTTE air operations were only for its protection and definitely not like India. Speaking at the debate on the extension of the state of an congratulated the LTTE for its ‘successful’ air strikes. “This is only
Sri Lanka and not to attack India”. (Daily Mirror on 10 May 2007) ir attacks, India’s defence authorities on May 8 reviewed the latest scussed various counter measures to meet the threat, a highly placed eting was held to work out a plan of action in the event the LTTE ia,” the source said. (Daily Mirror on 10 May 2007) rday vowed to continue his fight against the LTTE while ruling out whose faction he broke away recently following a bitter feud. (Daily
day unanimously endorsed the party’s power devolution proposals to nitary state. Addressing the Executive Commitee, President Mahinda ed in keeping with the SLFP identity and policies, and vowed the party e coalition allies. (Daily Mirror on 15 May 2007) ribed the crisis in Sri Lanka as a ‘forgotten conflict’ last year even as untry saw a serious deterioration as a result of rights violations t, the LTTE and the Karuna faction. (Daily Mirror on 24 May 2007) ur party member Keith Vaz said on May 25 it was disappointing that Sri Lanka were being smeared with various allegations by certain xclusive interview with the Daily Mirror the British MP said the All h the intention of getting the warring parties in Sri Lanka to reach a reservation” any and all human rights outrages and terrorist attacks 6 May 2007)
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• The Up-Country People’s Front (UPF) has asked for 16 parliam the proposed electoral reforms along with ten constituencies representation. The UPF, a party of the governing coalition, disc representing the Up-Country Tamils at the Indian community c 30 May 2007)
• A tense situation arose in Pettah on May 31 following Police ord Tamil tenants occupying their premises with immediate effect. security threats posed by the presence of pro-LTTE elements w Mirror on 01 June 2007)
• Police on June 1 clarified the confusion regarding lodge occupa was given only for people who were remaining in Colombo journalists the decision in no way hampered residents of the N their businesses. Responding to a question raised by the medi Tourism Division, the IGP reiterated the police force was com and that the “right to live” had to be given prominence over Mirror on 02 June 2007)
• The bodies of the two local Red Cross workers who were alleg the night of June 1 were found by police from an estate in Inspector Yasawardene Weeratunga said the victims identified a Chandramohan (27) might have been killed elsewhere before t Mirror on 04 June 2007)
• In a controversial move that sparked national and international r Tamils residing in lodges in Colombo were on June 7 forcibly e security related measure to mitigate threats posed by the LTTE it as the facilitation of the voluntary departure. (Daily Mirror on 0
• Responding to the eviction of North and East Tamils from Colom facilitating the voluntary departure of Tamils’ who stayed in Minister Keheliya Rambukwella told Parliament the security Colombo during the past few weeks to prevent terrorist attacks
• An explosive situation erupted in Parliament last morning as T government expelling Tamils from Colombo. The situation w Maheswaran, who claimed that busloads of Tamils, including th evicted from Colombo. (Daily Mirror on 08 June 2007)
• Amidst a national and international uproar over the eviction of June 7, the Supreme Court on June 8 issued an Interim Order d to evict Tamils from Colombo or to prevent them from ente interim order came on a Fundamental Rights petition filed b Executive Director Pakiasothy Saravanamuttu. The Be N.G.Amaratunga and Andrew Somawansa gave the CPA leave t the eviction was a violation of the fundamental right to equality of movement and choosing the place of residence within Sri Lank
• In a new turn of events to the drama surrounding the evictio week, Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake on June 10 ex their eviction from the city, saying it was a ‘big mistake’ by the go
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has asked for 16 parliamentary seats for Tamils of Indian origin under with ten constituencies re-demarcated to strengthen the community’s governing coalition, discussed its proposals with other political parties the Indian community council meeting held on May 18. (Daily Mirror on
y 31 following Police orders to some 56 lodge owners to send away all s with immediate effect. Police claimed this measure was to minimize of pro-LTTE elements who seek accommodation in these lodges. (Daily
regarding lodge occupants in Colombo, saying the order to move out remaining in Colombo indefinitely. Police Chief Victor Perera told ered residents of the North and East entering the capital to carry out stion raised by the media during a ceremony to inaugurate the Police he police force was completely committed to protecting human rights given prominence over every other right for the common man. (Daily
workers who were allegedly abducted near the Fort railway station on olice from an estate in Kiriella, Ratnapura on June 2. Kiriella Police id the victims identified as Shanmugalingam Kandiah (32) and Mahadevan illed elsewhere before their bodies were dumped in the estate. (Daily
tional and international repercussions, several hundreds of North – East ere on June 7 forcibly evicted in what the police termed was part of a eats posed by the LTTE in the city limits and the government described arture. (Daily Mirror on 08 June 2007) d East Tamils from Colombo, the government on June 7 said it was only Tamils’ who stayed in lodges. Government Defence Spokesman and Parliament the security authorities conducted search operations in prevent terrorist attacks and explosions. (Daily Mirror on 08 June 2007) iament last morning as Tamil MPs reacted angrily to the news of the lombo. The situation was first notified to the House by UNP MP T. s of Tamils, including the sick, elderly and children were being forcibly 08 June 2007) oar over the eviction of more than 300 Tamil people from Colmbo on ssued an Interim Order directing the Police Chief not to take any steps prevent them from entering and staying in any part of Colombo. This al Rights petition filed by the Centre for Policy Alternatives and its ravanamuttu. The Bench comprising Justices N.E.Dissanayake, nsa gave the CPA leave to proceed with its petition which claimed that amental right to equality, equal protection of the law, right to freedom residence within Sri Lanka. (Daily Mirror on 09 June 2007)
surrounding the eviction of Tamil lodge dwellers from Colombo last manayake on June 10 expressed regrets to the hundreds of Tamils for s a ‘big mistake’ by the government. (Daily Mirror on 11 June 2007)
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F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUC
OF
J
UNE
2007
The following are the significant trends observed in the PCI note that this particular wave of the PCI only covers the Si communities in the areas outside North and East. Further, d community in the sample, this report does not intend to pres
♦ Important Issues: On being asked to rate five nation
all three communities give equal importance to the eco the Sinhala (Economy - 29.4%, Peace Process – 27.3%) – 27.2%, Peace Process – 25.1%) communities give high the peace process, the Muslim community (Peace Proce other hand, gives high priority to the peace process foll
♦ Solution: The best solution to the war in Sri Lanka, ac of those from the Up-Country Tamil (95.4%) and Mu peace talks, while a majority (52.9%) of those from the 27.9% of the Sinhala community also believes that defeating the LTTE. The support for peace talks within by 7 points while the support for a military solution ha Page 17)
♦ End to the Conflict: An overwhelming majority from
Muslim (82.8%) communities think that the country permanent solution to the ethnic conflict, while the Sin on this issue. This is in sharp contrast to the PCI findin of the Sinhala, 50.8% of the Tamil and 55% of the M opinion. It is also significant to note that when compare there has been a decline in those from among the Sinh ’07 – 28.6% ) and Muslim (Close: February ’07- 28.3% think that the country is close to reaching a permanen Page 18)
♦ Likelihood of War: When asked to assess the like
current context, 37.6% of the Sinhala community think whilst 39.1% of the same community think that war has majority of those from the minority communities (Up-C think that war is likely to resume, while 23.1% of the Muslims think that war has already started. Compared there has been a shift in the opinion of the Sinhalese, started are of the opinion in June that war is likely ( 37.6%)and more are convinced that war has already 39.1%) than in February. (Ref. Page 19)
♦ Expanding Military Offensive: A majority of the S
the statement that the government should expand its order to weaken the LTTE. On the other hand, a majo and Muslim (56.5%) community disagree with the statem

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THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
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UNE TO
15TH OF
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UNE
2007
nds observed in the PCI June 2007 survey. It is important to PCI only covers the Sinhala, Muslim and Up-Country Tamil rth and East. Further, due to the total exclusion of the Tamil does not intend to present national estimations.
asked to rate five national issues in their order of importance, al importance to the economy and the peace process. While, Peace Process – 27.3%) and the Up-Country Tamil (Economy ) communities give high priority to the economy followed by community (Peace Process – 33.1%, Economy – 30.5%) on the to the peace process followed by the economy. (Ref. Page16)
the war in Sri Lanka, according to an overwhelming majority y Tamil (95.4%) and Muslim (93.1%) communities is through 2.9%) of those from the Sinhala community believe the same. nity also believes that the solution lies in the government rt for peace talks within the Sinhala community has increased for a military solution has decreased by 7 points as well. (Ref.
rwhelming majority from the Up-Country Tamil (81.5%) and think that the country is not close at all to reaching a nic conflict, while the Sinhala community has a mixed opinion ontrast to the PCI findings of February ’07, where only 16.1% amil and 55% of the Muslim community were of this same note that when compared to the PCI findings of February ‘07, se from among the Sinhala (Close: February ’07- 48.3%, June se: February ’07- 28.3%, June ’07 – 8.6% ) communities who to reaching a permanent solution to the ethnic conflict. (Ref.
asked to assess the likelihood of resumption in war in the Sinhala community thinks that it is likely that war will resume unity think that war has already started. On the other hand, a ority communities (Up-Country Tamil – 60%, Muslim – 68.9%) me, while 23.1% of the Up-Country Tamils and 9.8% of the eady started. Compared to the PCI findings of February 2007 pinion of the Sinhalese, as fewer Sinhalese War has already June that war is likely (Likely: February ’07 – 65.9%, June – d that war has already started (February ’07 – 2.4%, June – age 19)
ve: A majority of the Sinhala (54.6%) community agree with ment should expand its military action to even all out war in n the other hand, a majority of the Up-Country Tamil (68.9%)
disagree with the statement. When compared to the

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February 2007 PCI results, amongst the Sinhala and M decrease in those who agree with this statement. (Ref. P
♦ 43.6% of those from the Sinhala community believe th won in 2-3 years whilst none of those from the Up-C same. On the other hand, 50% of the Up-Country Ta that it is impossible for the government to win the war
♦ Current Security Condition: When asked whether
or worsened when compared to the past year, a majo think that the situation has improved whilst an overwhe Country Tamil (93.8%) and Muslim (73.3%) think that Page 22)
♦ A majority from all three communities (Sinhala – 45%, 86.4%) feel that the number of abductions and killing government’s claim that the number of abductions and is interesting to note that compared to the Sinhala com those from the Up-Country Tamil and Muslim commun
♦ Commitment and Capability of Parties to the
Sinhalese (62.3%) agree that the government is comm There has been a 11 point decrease in this opinion wit June – 62.3%) community since February 2007. On the Tamils and 44.1% of the Muslims do not agree with th committed to finding peace through talks. There ha opinion within both communities (Up-Country Tamil: F February – 33.3%, June – 44.1%) since February 2007. (R
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (58.3%) and Muslim (6 government is fully capable of finding peace through Country Tamils (50%) disagree. Compared to the P Muslims agree (February ’07- 71.7%, June ’07 – 66.1 (February ’07- 37.7%, June ’07 – 50%) express disagre the statement that the Government is fully capable of 25)
♦ On the issue of the LTTE’s commitment to peace thro
Country Tamils who agree (February ‘07- 43.3%, June -4 of the Sinhala (75.5%) and the Muslim (50.8%) com Compared to the PCI findings of February 2007, disagre Muslim (February ’07 – 59.3%, June ’07 – 50.8%) comm Page 26)
♦ Ceasefire Agreement: When asked whether Sri La the opinion is polarized along ethnic lines. While a community thinks that they have not benefited from th Country Tamil (58.8%) and Muslim (81.1%) commu benefited from the CFA. (Ref. Page 28)

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ongst the Sinhala and Muslim communities there has been a ith this statement. (Ref. Page 20)
la community believe that it is probable that the war can be of those from the Up-Country Tamil community believe the of the Up-Country Tamils and 55.9% of the Muslims think ernment to win the war within this time span. (Ref. Page 21)
n: When asked whether the security situation has improved to the past year, a majority of the Sinhala (46.3%) community roved whilst an overwhelming majority of those from the Up- uslim (73.3%) think that the situation has deteriorated. (Ref.
munities (Sinhala – 45%, Up-Country Tamil – 96.9%, Muslim – f abductions and killings have increased in June, despite the mber of abductions and killings have reduced in the month. It pared to the Sinhala community, an overwhelming majority of mil and Muslim community are of this opinion. (Ref. Page 23)
ity of Parties to the Peace Process: A majority of the he government is committed to finding peace through talks. rease in this opinion within the Sinhala (February ’07– 73.8%; February 2007. On the other hand, 52.4% of the Up-Country ms do not agree with the statement that the Government is through talks. There has been a significant increase in this ies (Up-Country Tamil: February – 32.8%, June- 52.4%, Muslim:
) since February 2007. (Ref. Page 24)
(58.3%) and Muslim (66.1%) communities agree that the f finding peace through talks, while a majority of the Up- e. Compared to the PCI findings of February 2007, fewer 71.7%, June ’07 – 66.1%), whilst more Up-Country Tamils – 50%) express disagreement in June than in February, with ment is fully capable of finding peace through talks. (Ref. Page
mmitment to peace through talks, the opinion among the Up- bruary ‘07- 43.3%, June -43.3%) remains unchanged. A majority e Muslim (50.8%) community disagree with the statement. of February 2007, disagreement with the statement among the June ’07 – 50.8%) community has decreased by 9 points. (Ref.
en asked whether Sri Lankans have benefited from the CFA, g ethnic lines. While a majority from the Sinhala (52.6%) ve not benefited from the CFA, a majority from both the Up- Muslim (81.1%) community believe that Sri Lankans have age 28)
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♦ A majority of the Sinhala (Very Satisfied – 20.5%, Som (Very satisfied – 16.2%, Somewhat satisfied – 35.1%) Government’s commitment to the CFA, while a majo Tamil (Not satisfied – 56.8%, Not satisfied at all - 29.7 It is interesting to note that when compared to the PC been a decrease in satisfaction with the Government’s Sinhala (Very satisfied: February – 35.3%, June – 20.5%)
♦ When asked for their opinion on the LTTE’s commit
Sinhalese (82.5%) state that they are not satisfied with the Up-Country Tamil community and 70.2% from th When compared to the PCI findings of February 2007 not satisfied with the LTTE’s commitment. Interestingly in the Up-Country Tamil Community of those w commitment to the CFA compared to February 2007. (
♦ Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission: Of those who are aw
monitors, a majority of the Sinhalese (51.1%) believ essential for the CFA to succeed, whilst an overwh Country Tamil (83.3%) and Muslim (86.1%) commu mission is essential. Compared to the PCI findings of Fe increase within the Muslim community, of those who essential. (Ref. Page 31)
♦ In the context of the escalation in violence between t
both parties claim that they are abiding by the CFA pe role of the SLMM is at the present moment. A majo community believe that the role of the SLMM is no majority from both the Up-Country Tamil (69%) and M the SLMM plays an important role at the present time. (
♦ Foreign Involvement: A majority from the Sinhala (4 Muslim (71.7%) communities believe that an internatio positive impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 33)
♦ A majority of those from the Sinhala (57.1%) communit with the role played by the Norwegians as facilitator to hand, a majority from both the Up-Country Tamil (60 express satisfaction with the Norwegian facilitation. W Sinhala and Up-Country Tamil community remain unch community has dropped by 10 points. (Ref. Page 34)
♦ When asked if they approve or disapprove of Norw
process, a majority of the Sinhalese (56%) state that majority from the Up-Country Tamil (56.9%) and the they approve. There has been a slight downward shif since February 2007, as less Muslims approve (February continuing to facilitate the peace process, whilst at th Muslims (February ’07- 30%, June – 18.6%) disapprove o
♦ When asked about the need for India’s involvement in
the Sinhala (48%), Up-Country Tamil (83.6%) and Muslim

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y Satisfied – 20.5%, Somewhat satisfied – 38.7%) and Muslim what satisfied – 35.1%) communities are satisfied with the the CFA, while a majority of those from the Up-Country ot satisfied at all - 29.7%) community express dissatisfaction. hen compared to the PCI findings of February 2007, there has with the Government’s commitment to the CFA within the y – 35.3%, June – 20.5%) community. (Ref. Page 29)
on the LTTE’s commitment to the CFA, a majority of the y are not satisfied with their commitment, whilst, 54.3% from nity and 70.2% from the Muslim community state the same. indings of February 2007, fewer Sinhalese state that they are ommitment. Interestingly, there has been a 21 point reduction ommunity of those who are satisfied with the LTTE’s ared to February 2007. (Ref. Page 30)
on: Of those who are aware of the involvement of the foreign Sinhalese (51.1%) believe that a monitoring mission is not ceed, whilst an overwhelming majority from both the Up- Muslim (86.1%) communities think that such a monitoring to the PCI findings of February 2007, there has been a 5 point mmunity, of those who think that a monitoring mission is
n in violence between the Government and the LTTE, while e abiding by the CFA people were asked how important the resent moment. A majority of those from the Sinhala (42%) ole of the SLMM is not important. On the other hand, a untry Tamil (69%) and Muslim (75.7%) community believe that ole at the present time. (Ref. Page 32)
jority from the Sinhala (45.1%), Up-Country Tamil (81.8%) and elieve that an international third party facilitator will have a rocess. (Ref. Page 33)
inhala (57.1%) community state that they are not at all satisfied rwegians as facilitator to the peace negotiations. On the other e Up-Country Tamil (60.3%) and Muslim (52.5%) community orwegian facilitation. While the satisfaction of those from the community remain unchanged, the satisfaction of the Muslim points. (Ref. Page 34)
or disapprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace halese (56%) state that they disapprove. On the contrary, a Tamil (56.9%) and the Muslim (44.1%) community state that a slight downward shift in Muslim opinion on the question uslims approve (February ’07- 56.7%, June – 44.1%) of Norway ace process, whilst at the same time a lower percentage of ne – 18.6%) disapprove of the same. (Ref. Page 35)
or India’s involvement in the peace process, a majority from Tamil (83.6%) and Muslim (66.1%) community, think that
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India’s involvement will have a positive impact. It is signi a majority from the minority communities are of this op
♦ When asked to rank a given set of developments whic based on their level of awareness in order to find out Lankans, of the 6 given, a majority from all three comm rise in the price of essential commodities, while namin second most concern. However, unlike among the Si prices and the LTTE air raids among the Up-Countr substantial (Up-Country Tamil: Rise in prices of esse raids in Colombo – 28.4%; Muslim: Rise in prices of ess raids in Colombo – 32%). Displacement of people in t focus of the 6 by both the Muslim and Sinhala commu issues identified the awareness is substantially low acros
♦ Internally Displaced People (IDP): When asked
persons who have been internally displaced by the et 41.6% of the Sinhala, 37.9% of the Up-Country Tamil state that they don’t know or are unsure of the numb the Muslims and the Up-Country Tamils was that (Muslim – 13.3%, Up-Country Tamil – 19.7%) while fo than 50,000 (7.8%). (Ref. Page 38)
♦ Media Freedom: A majority of the Sinhalese (45.3%) know or are unsure of what they think of the media majority in the Muslim community (42.6%) and 2 community and 28% from the Sinhala community believ of democracy. 34.4% of the Muslim community state th what to make of such media reports. Less than 10% i reports are either unpatriotic or an expression of symp
♦ Recently there were news reports stating that so threatened by Government officials and security person (47%) and Muslims (55%) believe that it is true that whereas only 18.4% of the Sinhala community thinks Sinhalese think that it is true, but has happened only to Page 40)
♦ On the issue of whether there’s no harm in compromis
preservingnational security, a majority of those from Tamil (55.4%) communities state that they have no o Muslim community also say the same. 37.7% of the Si Muslim community agree that there’s no harm in comp other hand, 40% of those from the Up-Country Tamil compromised. (Ref. Page 41)
♦ Emergency Regulations: On the question of wheth
or decreased since the implementation of the new E December 2006, a majority of the Up-Country T communities believe that the level of violence has inc those from the Sinhala community don’t know or are un

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positive impact. It is significant that compared to the Sinhalese,
mmunities are of this opinion. (Ref. Page 36)
et of developments which occurred over the last few months ess in order to find out the current issue of focus among Sri rity from all three communities are most concerned with the ommodities, while naming the LTTE’s air raids as the issue of er, unlike among the Sinhalese, the gap between the rise in s among the Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities is il: Rise in prices of essential commodities – 41.4%, LTTE air slim: Rise in prices of essential commodities – 43.7%, LTTE air placement of people in the East is listed as the third issue of slim and Sinhala communities and compared to the first two is substantially low across all three communities. (Ref. Page37)
le (IDP): When asked to estimate the current number of ally displaced by the ethnic conflict as per their knowledge, the Up-Country Tamil and 66.7% of the Muslim community are unsure of the numbers. The next favoured choice among ntry Tamils was that the displacement was over 200,000 Tamil – 19.7%) while for the Sinhala community it was less 8)
of the Sinhalese (45.3%) and Up-Country Tamils (43.9%) don’t hey think of the media reports critical of the government. A munity (42.6%) and 28.8% from the Up-Country Tamil Sinhala community believe that such reports are an expression uslim community state that they don’t know or are unsure of eports. Less than 10% in each community believes that such r an expression of sympathy for the LTTE. (Ref. Page 39)
reports stating that some journalists were harassed and icials and security personnel. A majority of Up-Country Tamils ieve that it is true that journalists are harassed in general, inhala community thinks the same. However, 13.6 % of the ut has happened only to a selected number of journalists. (Ref.
’s no harm in compromising media freedoms in the interest of majority of those from the Sinhala (46.1%) and Up-Country ate that they have no opinion and 38.6% of those from the e same. 37.7% of the Sinhalese and 31.6% of those from the there’s no harm in compromising media freedom, while on the the Up-Country Tamil community do not think they can be
n the question of whether the level of violence has increased mentation of the new Emergency Regulations on the 6th of of the Up-Country Tamil (84.8%) and Muslim (76.7%) level of violence has increased. On the other hand, 42% of nity don’t know or are unsure whether the level of violence

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has increased or decreased. However, 29.2% of the S has increased while 35.1% thinks that it has decreased. (
♦ When asked whether the new emergency regulations
civilians, 50.3% of the Sinhalese disagree, whilst 85.9% the Muslim community agree that these regulations civilians. (Ref. Page 43)
♦ A majority from the Up-Country Tamil (57.6%) and M
the new emergency regulations are more harmful to terrorism. On the other hand, while a majority of the unsure or don’t know the effect of the emergency re Sinhalese disagree with the statement. (Ref. Page 44)
♦ LTTE Air Strikes: A majority of the Sinhala (87.9%) that the LTTE’s air capability is a great threat to na opinion. On the other hand, 41.5% of the Up-Country not know or are unsure, while 33.8% state that it is a Page 45)
♦ 43% of the Sinhala community believes that the Gove the LTTE air threats, while 37.3% of the Muslims and 1 the same. In the Sinhala community, 35.4% don’t know while 21.6% feel that the Government has not done en Tamils (72.7%) state that they don’t know or are not su enough to mitigate such threats. (Ref. Page 46)
♦ SLFP Proposal: Interestingly, a majority from all thre Country Tamil – 76.6%, Muslim – 93.2%) state that th proposal to the APRC. 18.8% of the Up-Country Tam community state that they are aware of the SLFP’s prop
♦ In order to assess their knowledge on the SLFP’s prop
name the unit of devolution and the head of state ac 7.7% of the Sinhalese are able to answer both questio answer at least one question correctly. A majority (6 identify the correct response to both questions. It is in both the Up-Country and Muslim communities are u proposal. (Ref. Page 49)
♦ On the issue of the impact of the SLFP’s proposal on f
who are aware of the proposal, a majority of the Sinha don’t know or are not sure of its impact. (Ref. Page 50)
♦ On the question of whether the current war is an ethn it can be seen that the opinion is polarised along e Sinhalese (65.3%) thinks that it is a war against terro Tamils (55.4%) think that it is an ethnic conflict. A major community on the other hand state that they don’t kno Muslims who have an opinion on the issue, there seems those who think that it is a war against terrorism (20 ethnic conflict (18.3%). (Ref. Page 51)

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owever, 29.2% of the Sinhala community thinks the violence s that it has decreased. (Ref. Page 42)
emergency regulations could be harmful to ordinary Tamil e disagree, whilst 85.9% of the Up-Country Tamil and 65% of that these regulations could be harmful to ordinary Tamil
try Tamil (57.6%) and Muslim (46.7%) community agree that s are more harmful to democracy than helpful in combating , while a majority of the Sinhalese (52%) state that they are ct of the emergency regulation in this context, 40.4% of the ement. (Ref. Page 44)
y of the Sinhala (87.9%) and Muslim (83.3%) community state is a great threat to national security when asked for their 1.5% of the Up-Country Tamil community state that they do 33.8% state that it is a great threat to national security. (Ref.
believes that the Government has done enough to mitigate .3% of the Muslims and 15.2% of the Up-Country Tamils think unity, 35.4% don’t know or have no opinion on the subject rnment has not done enough. A majority of the Up-Country don’t know or are not sure whether the government has done s. (Ref. Page 46)
, a majority from all three communities (Sinhala – 80.6%, Up- m – 93.2%) state that they are not at all aware of the SLFP’s of the Up-Country Tamil community and 16% of the Sinhala aware of the SLFP’s proposal to some extent. (Ref. Page 48)
ledge on the SLFP’s proposal, the respondents were asked to nd the head of state according to the SLFP’s proposal. Only to answer both questions correctly, while 25.7% are able to correctly. A majority (66.7%) of the Sinhalese are unable to o both questions. It is interesting to note that a majority from slim communities are unaware of the contents of the SLFP
the SLFP’s proposal on furthering the peace process, of those l, a majority of the Sinhala (50.7%) community state that they its impact. (Ref. Page 50)
e current war is an ethnic conflict or a war against terrorism, ion is polarised along ethnic lines. While a majority of the it is a war against terrorism, a majority of the Up-Country n ethnic conflict. A majority of those from the Muslim (51.7%) state that they don’t know or are not sure what it is. Of those n the issue, there seems to be an almost equal distribution of ar against terrorism (20%) and those who think that it is an ge 51)
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♦ An overwhelming majority of those from the Sinhala (8 Muslim (70.7%) community don’t know or are unsure w SLFP’s proposals are regressive and disappointing are w Tamils agree with the TNA’s claims while 15.5% of the Page 52)
♦ Human Rights: On the issue of satisfaction with th rights violations, 83.3% of the Up-Country Tamil co community state that they are dissatisfied. On the cont community state that they are satisfied; 36.9% of those they don’t know or are unsure of the Government’s (Ref. Page 53)
♦ When asked to express their level of satisfaction
organisations to human rights violations, a majority from that they are unaware whilst a majority of the Up-Coun community express dissatisfaction. (Ref. Page 54)
♦ When asked for their opinion on the media’s response from the Up-Country Tamil (56%) community and community state that they are satisfied while 43.5% o state that they don’t know or are not sure of the media
♦ Richard Boucher’s Visit: A majority from all three
Country Tamil – 51.6%, Muslim – 54.2%) state that they Assistant U.S. Secretary of State, Richard Boucher to S visit will have on the peace process. 29.3 % of the S Muslim community state that they are aware of his vis visit on the peace process. 20.3% of the Up-Country T the Sinhala community are of the opinion that his v Page 56)
♦ A majority from both the Sinhala (73.4%) and Muslim (6 little knowledge of the APRC when asked for their opi be the basis for the resumption of peace negotiations from the Up-Country Tamil community agree that th resumption of peace negotiations while 33.9% of those they have little knowledge of the APRC. (Ref. Page 57)
♦ A majority from all three communities (Sinhala – 57.6% – 46.6%) state that they have no opinion on the state the Government should reign in paramilitaries, impr freedom. 23.4% of those from the Up-Country Tami given by Richard Boucher to the Sri Lankan government
♦ British All Party Parliamentary Group: A majorit – 57.6%, Up-Country Tamil – 59.4%, Muslim – 46.6%) s British government has appointed an All Party Parliame Page 59)
♦ A majority of the Sinhalese (51.1%) agree wholehearte that the APPG is an infringement of Sri Lankan sovereig

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hose from the Sinhala (80.8%), Up-Country Tamil (67.7%) and
’t know or are unsure whether the TNA’s claims that the and disappointing are well founded. 27.7% of the Up-Country laims while 15.5% of the Muslims disagree with the same. (Ref.
e of satisfaction with the Government’s response to human e Up-Country Tamil community and 41.6% of the Muslim dissatisfied. On the contrary, 37.5% of those from the Sinhala satisfied; 36.9% of those from the same community state that e of the Government’s response to human rights violations.
ir level of satisfaction with the response of humanitarian iolations, a majority from the Sinhala (47.7%) community state majority of the Up-Country Tamil (47.7%) and Muslim (36.1%) ion. (Ref. Page 54)
on the media’s response to human rights violations, a majority (56%) community and 39.7% of those from the Muslim satisfied while 43.5% of those from the Sinhala community re not sure of the media’s response. (Ref. Page 55)
majority from all three communities ( Sinhala – 50.3%, Up- – 54.2%) state that they were not aware of the visit made by te, Richard Boucher to Sri Lanka, when asked what impact his rocess. 29.3 % of the Sinhala community and 28.8% of the hey are aware of his visit but, cannot judge the impact of the 3% of the Up-Country Tamil, 10.2% of the Muslim and 9.8% of the opinion that his visit will have a positive impact. (Ref.
la (73.4%) and Muslim (62.5%) community state that they have when asked for their opinion as to whether the APRC should n of peace negotiations. On the other hand, 39.3% of those ommunity agree that the APRC should be the basis for the ns while 33.9% of those from the same community state that e APRC. (Ref. Page 57)
unities (Sinhala – 57.6%, Up-Country Tamils – 59.4%, Muslim no opinion on the statement made by Richard Boucher, that in paramilitaries, improve human rights and ensure press the Up-Country Tamil community approve of the message e Sri Lankan government. (Ref. Page 58)
tary Group: A majority from all three communities (Sinhala 59.4%, Muslim – 46.6%) state that they are not aware that the ted an All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) for Tamils. (Ref.
1.1%) agree wholeheartedly with the Deshabhimani Peramuna nt of Sri Lankan sovereignty by Britain. On the other hand, a

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majority of the Up-Country Tamils (66.7%) and Mus sentiment expressed by the Deshabhimani Peramuna. (R
♦ Cost of living: On the issue of whether the cost of liv
compared to a year ago, an overwhelming majority fr Sinhala – 97.8%, Up-Country Tamil – 100%, Muslim – 1 increased. (Ref. Page 61)
♦ A majority from all three communities (Sinhala – 54.5% 60%) identify the escalation in the conflict as the reason Compared to the PCI findings of February 2007, there Up-Country Tamil (February ’07- 56.5%, June ’07- 66.7 the escalation in conflict as the reason for the increase Muslim (February ’07- 20.9%, June ’07- 10%) opinion living has increased as a result of the increase in oil pric
♦ Interestingly, while a majority from the Sinhala (57.4%)
the present cost of living for the sake of the Governme an overwhelming majority from the Up-Country community disagree. While none of those from the U bear the present cost of living for the sake of the Gove LTTE, 6.8% of those from the Muslim community agr findings of February 2007, it should be noted that proportion of Sinhalese (February ’07- 68.5%, June ’07 18.6%, June ’07 – ‘6.8%) who agree with this sentimen the proportion of those from the Up-Country Tamil c ‘07- 86.2%) who disagree with the same. (Ref. Page 63)
♦ When asked whether they are agreeable to bearing the necessary sacrifice to enable President Rajapakse to d overwhelming majority from the Up-Country Tamil (8 disagree. The Sinhala community’s opinion is mixed; w present cost of living to enable the President to deal disagree. Compared to the PCI findings of February 2 bearing the present cost of living to enable the Presiden now than in February. (Ref. Page 64)
♦ A majority from all three communities (Not Satisfied: 55.4%, Muslim – 32.8%, Not satisfied at all: Sinhala – Muslim – 24.1%) express dissatisfaction with the action they support in dealing with the present cost of livi community on the other hand, state that they are so such politicians, while 31% of those from the Muslim c regard. (Ref. Page 65)
♦ An overwhelming majority from all three communities
93.8%, Muslim – 95%) think that the cost of living will i looked at in the context of the present situation in the compared to the PCI findings of February 2007, ther proportion of Sinhalese (February ’07- 59%, June ’07- 8 will increase in the next six months. (Ref. Page 66)

ex
Tamils (66.7%) and Muslims (80.8%) do not agree with the
shabhimani Peramuna. (Ref. Page 60)
f whether the cost of living has increased or decreased when verwhelming majority from all three communities (Increased: amil – 100%, Muslim – 100%) state that the cost of living has
munities (Sinhala – 54.5%, Up-Country Tamil 66.7%, Muslim – the conflict as the reason for the increase in the cost of living. of February 2007, there has been a 10% increase within the 07- 56.5%, June ’07- 66.7%) community of those who identify reason for the increase in the cost of living and a 10% drop in June ’07- 10%) opinion of those who think that the cost of of the increase in oil prices in the world market. (Ref. Page 62)
from the Sinhala (57.4%) community state that they will bear e sake of the Government’s effort in fighting against the LTTE, rom the Up-Country Tamil (86.2%) and Muslim (79.7%) ne of those from the Up-Country Tamil community agree to for the sake of the Government’s effort in fighting against the Muslim community agree to do so. Compared to the PCI should be noted that there has been a decrease in the ary ’07- 68.5%, June ’07 – 57.4%) and Muslims (February ’07 – agree with this sentiment, while there has been an increase in the Up-Country Tamil community (February ’07- 74.6%, June the same. (Ref. Page 63)
agreeable to bearing the present cost of living because it is a President Rajapakse to deal with the country’s problems, an he Up-Country Tamil (83.1%) and Muslim (81.4%) community ity’s opinion is mixed; while 44.1% is agreeable to bearing the le the President to deal with the country’s problems, 36.4% I findings of February 2007 fewer Sinhalese are agreeable to ng to enable the President to deal with the country’s problems e 64)
munities (Not Satisfied: Sinhala -36.4%, Up-Country Tamil – satisfied at all: Sinhala – 28.4%, Up-Country Tamil – 33.8%, tisfaction with the actions taken by the politicians of the party the present cost of living. 18.1% of those from the Sinhala , state that they are somewhat satisfied with the actions of those from the Muslim community express no opinion in this
all three communities (Sinhala – 81.4%, Up-Country Tamil – at the cost of living will increase in the next six months, when e present situation in the country. It is noteworthy that when of February 2007, there has been a drastic increase in the ary ’07- 59%, June ’07- 81.4%) who think that the cost of living nths. (Ref. Page 66)
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♦ Federal Debate: When asked whether they agree th a united Sri Lanka, the two given contradictory statem of those from the Sinhala, 4.6% from the Up-Count communities agree with the statement federal solution hand, 33.8% of those from the Up-Country Tamil, 18.6 the Sinhala community think that federalism will ensure Sinhala (64.9%) community say they don’t know or are n
♦ When asked whether a federal structure would be dis community or whether it would make all ethnic co Country Tamils, 18.6% of the Muslims and 10.1% of th make all ethnic communities equal. On the other han Muslim and 1.5% of the Up-Country Tamil community disadvantageous to the majority Sinhala community. A state that they don’t know or are unsure of whet communities equal or whether it would be disadvantag Page 68)
♦ Of the two statements, a federal structure will thre community; federalism will make all religions equal, a don’t know or are unsure of the impact a federal struc the Sinhala, 31.8% of the Up-Country Tamil and 18% belief that federalism will make all religions equal. 16 Country Tamil and 1.6% of the Muslim community th status quo of the Buddhist community. (Ref. Page 69)
♦ On the issue of whether federalism will create econom
negative impact on the economy, the opinion of the (Will create economic prosperity – 9.6%, Will impact t of the Up-Country Tamil community and 16.9% of the that federalism will create economic prosperity. 16.7% with either statement. (Ref. Page 70)
♦ A majority from all three communities (Sinhala – 51.4%
– 78%) state that they do not know how to answer constitutional debate relating to federalism, devolution those from the Sinhala community are of the opinion th amended whilst preserving the current unitary state st under the present Constitution. 27% of those from Up opinion that we should adopt a federal structure within

ex
Page 14
d whether they agree that federalism will lead to secession or en contradictory statements on the federalism debate, 20.8 % 6% from the Up-Country Tamil and 6.8% from the Muslim atement federal solution will lead to secession. On the other Up-Country Tamil, 18.6% from the Muslim and 10.2 % from at federalism will ensure a united Sri Lanka. A majority of the they don’t know or are not sure. (Ref. Page 67)
l structure would be disadvantageous to the majority Sinhala uld make all ethnic communities equal, 36.4% of the Up- Muslims and 10.1% of the Sinhalese think that federalism will equal. On the other hand, 18.8% of the Sinhala, 3.4% of the ountry Tamil community think that a federal solution will be ty Sinhala community. A majority from all three communities or are unsure of whether Federalism will make all ethnic it would be disadvantageous to the Sinhala community. (Ref.
eral structure will threaten the status quo of the Buddhist ke all religions equal, a majority from all three communities he impact a federal structure will have on this issue. 10.3% of ountry Tamil and 18% of the Muslim community are of the e all religions equal. 16.6% of the Sinhala, 4.5% of the Up- e Muslim community think that federalism will threaten the munity. (Ref. Page 69)
alism will create economic prosperity or whether it will have a my, the opinion of the Sinhala community is equally divided ity – 9.6%, Will impact the economy negatively – 9.5%). 31.8% unity and 16.9% of the Muslim community are of the opinion omic prosperity. 16.7% of the Up-Country Tamils don’t agree e 70)
munities (Sinhala – 51.4%, Up-Country Tamil – 60.3%, Muslim t know how to answer the question relating to the current o federalism, devolution and the status of Buddhism. 24.6% of nity are of the opinion that the present constitution should be current unitary state structure and status given to Buddhism . 27% of those from Up-Country Tamil community are of the federal structure within a united Sri Lanka. (Ref. Page 71)

Page 17
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
For further information please
Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Rana
Social Indicator
Centre for Policy Alternativ
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472/4 Email: info@cpas
Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://ww

er information please contact:
p Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator
ntre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
472/4 Email: info@cpasocialindicator.org
70475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
ex
Page 15

Page 18
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Peace Confidence Index (P
May 2001 – June 2007
Important Issues
Rating the degree of importance of five national is
Ethnic Breakdow
7.2
33.1 Muslim
14.7 14.4
30.5
7.0
Up-Country Tamil
25.1 24.7 16.0
27.2
10.6
27.3 Sinhala
16.0 16.7
29.4
0 20 40
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinha
Muslim commun
100%
10.1 10.6
5.2 7.0 8
80%
28.8 27.3
27.2 25.1
33
60%
13.7 16.0
16.9
24.7
17
40%
17.9 16.7
17.5
16.0 12
20%
28.6 29.4 30.9
27.2 28
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

ex
ace Confidence Index (PCI)
May 2001 – June 2007
nce of five national issues
Ethnic Breakdown
29.4
Page 16
33.1
40 60 80
%
The Tsunami Recovery 30.5
The peace process in
25.1 24.7
Sri Lanka
Conflict betw een different ethnic groups 27.2
Law and Order
27.3
The Economy
n amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
5.2 7.0 8.0 7.2
27.2 25.1
33.6
33.1
The Tsunami Recovery
The peace process in
16.9
24.7
17.5
Sri Lanka
14.7
Conflict betw een
17.5
16.0 12.0
14.4
different ethnic groups
Law and Order
30.9
27.2 28.9 30.5
The Economy
b '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
p-Country Tamil Muslim

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Solution
How do you think we can end the war and have pe
Ethnic Breakdo
3.4 3.4 Muslim
3.1 Up-Country
1.5
Tamil
7.6
10.9 Sinhala
27.9
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala, Muslim communitie
46.3
52.9
95.2 95.4
52.9 0.7
100%
5.8
7.6
3.2 1.6
3.1 1.5 3.4 1.7 11.4
10.9 80%
60%
88.1
40%
1.4
0.7
20%
35.1
27.9
0%
6.8
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 J
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil Muslim

ex
d the war and have peace in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
52.9
Page 17
93.1
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Conducting peace talks w hile having military offensives Peace Talks
LTTE defeating the Government
Government defeating the LTTE
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities
95.4
95.4
3.1 1.5 3.4 1.7
3.4
June '07 Feb '07 June '07
y Tamil Muslim
3.4
Don't know /Not sure
Conducting peace talks w hile having military offensives
88.1
Peace Talks
LTTE defeating the Government
Government defeating the LTTE
6.8
93.1

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End to the Conflict
Compared to the situation of the peace process a think is the country at present, in approaching a p ethnic conflict?
Ethnic Breakdown
3.4
Muslim
5.2
8.6
4.6 Up-Country Tamil
9.2 4.6
12.5
Sinhala
24.8
34.1
28.6
0 20 40 60 8
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinha Muslim communi
100%
13.7 12.5 14.3
4.6
80%
16.1
34.1
60%
21.8
50.8
81.5
40%
24.8
20%
48.3
25.4 28.6
0%
9.5
9.2 4.6
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 F
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

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f the peace process a year ago, how close do you nt, in approaching a permanent settlement to the
Ethnic Breakdown
6
Page 18
82.8
40 60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Not close at all
Remains the same
Close
n amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
9.5
4.6
81.5
4.1
14.3
4.6 5.0 3.4
55.0
82.8
eb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Up-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure 50.8
81.5
Not close at all
Remains the same
11.7
Close
25.4
9.2
28.3
5.2 8.6

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Likelihood of War
Given the current situation in the country, how lik
Ethnic Breakdown
9.8
13.1 Muslim
4.9 3.3
11.5
39.1 13.3 3.3
6.7
14.2
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala,
Muslim communities
31.8
14.2
57.4
23.1
Up-Country
1.5
10.8
Tamil
4.6
9.2
23.4
50.8
Sinhala
100%
2.4
18.0
19.0
23.1
14.8
80%
4.9
39.1
4.8 11.5
8.8
6.3
60%
15.9
10.8
4.6
1.5
9.8
34.1
13.3
3.3
9.2
26.2
40%
6.7
23.4
54.0
50.8 20%
37.7
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil Mu

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n the country, how likely is it that war will resume?
Ethnic Breakdown
50.8
Page 19
57.4
War has already started
Don't know / Not sure
Very unlikely
Somew hat unlikely
Somew hat likely
39.1
Very likely
60 80 100
%
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities
23.1
14.8
9.8
11.5
13.1
10.8
4.9
3.3 1.5
50.8
37.7
June '07 Feb '07 June '07
ntry Tamil Muslim
War has already started
4.6
9.8
11.5 Don't know / Not sure
9.2
Very unlikely 26.2
Somew hat unlikely
Somew hat likely
57.4
Very likely

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Expanding Military Offensive
“The Government should expand its military act war in order to weaken the LTTE.” Do you statement?
Ethnic Breakdown
17.4
Muslim
56.5
26.1
28.9 Up-Country Tamil
15.3
30.1
54.6
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhal
the Muslim commun
59.2
54.6
6.1
68.9
2.2
Sinhala
100%
17.3 15.3
6.1
28.9 80%
23.5
30.1
60%
87.9
40%
68.9
20%
0%
2.2
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

ex
ve
xpand its military action including even to all out he LTTE.” Do you agree or disagree with this
Ethnic Breakdown
54.6
Page 20
56.5
60 80 100
%
Don't Know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim communities
6.1
68.9
6.1
eb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Up-Country Tamil Muslim
17.4 28.9
2.2
50.0
56.5
Don't Know /Not sure
87.9
Disagree
68.9
Agree
50.0
26.1

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The Government says that the war can be won in this is,
Ethnic Breakdow
20.3
33.9 33.9 Muslim
22.0 5.1 5.1
42.4
Up-Country Tamil
9.1
40.9
7.6
29.1 7.8 Sinhala
19.4
23.3
0 20 40 6
%

ex
he war can be won in 2 – 3 years. Do you think that
Ethnic Breakdown
.3
Page 21
33.9 33.9 0
40.9
29.1
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
42.4
Impossible
Unlikely
Probable
Highly Probable

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Current Security Condition
Compared to the situation a year ago, do you thin country has improved or worsened?
Ethnic Breakdow
3.3
43.3
Muslim
5.0
30.0
16.7 1.7
1.5
Up-Country
52.3
Tamil
4.0
6.6
24.3 18.8
30.2 16.1
0 20 40 60 8
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinha Muslim communi
20.9
16.1
41.5 1.5
3.1
Sinhala
100%
3.5
1.5
9.5
1.1 6.6
4.0
9.7
11.3
52.3
62.9
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
19
80%
14.6
24.3
18.8
41.5
6.5
1.6 3.1
19
60%
9. 50.3 40%
30.2
8.1
45 20%
1.5

ex
n
year ago, do you think the security situation in the rsened?
Ethnic Breakdown
2
Page 22
43.3 0
52.3
40 60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
It has turned very bad
41.5
It has turned bad
Remains the same
It has somew hat improved
It has improved a lot
n amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
1.5
1.6 3.3
19.7
52.3
19.7
43.3
Don't know /Not sure
It has turned very bad
9.8
It has turned bad
Remains the same
30.0
It has somew hat improved
41.5
45.9
It has improved a lot
16.7 1.6 3.1 3.3 1.7 7 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
ountry Tamil Muslim
5.0
1.5

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The government claims that the number of ab country have reduced within the past month. Do have increased, decreased or stayed the same?
Ethnic Breakdown
6.8
Muslim
1.7
5.1
20.0 15.1
45.0
0 20 40 60 80 1
%
86.4
1.5
Up-Country
1.5 Tamil
Sinhala
19.8

ex
at the number of abductions and killings in the the past month. Do you feel that these instances stayed the same?
Ethnic Breakdown
5.0
Page 23
86.4
60 80 100
I am not sure
They have stayed the same
96.9
They have decreased
They have increased

Page 26
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
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Confidence
I think the Government is committed to find peac
Ethnic Breakdo
16.9
Muslim
44.1
39.0
Up-Country Tamil
20.6
52.4
27.0
17.8
Sinhala
19.9
62.3
0 20 40 60
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinha the Muslim commu
100%
13.5
17.8
20.6
80%
12.7
31.1
19.9
60%
32.8 52.4
40%
73.8
62.3
20%
36.1
27.0
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

ex
mmitted to find peace through talks
Ethnic Breakdown
62.3
Page 24
44.1
39.0
52.4
40 60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
7.0
Agree
n amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
the Muslim communities
20.6
16.7 16.9 31.1
33.3
44.1
36.1
27.0
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Up-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
32.8 52.4
Disagree
Agree
50.0
39.0

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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
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I think the Government is fully capable of finding p
Ethnic Breakdow
8.5
Muslim
25.4
21.9
58.3
0 20 40 60
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinha the Muslim commu
60.6
58.3
29.5 29.7
66
20.3 Up-Country Tamil
19.8
50.0
29.7
Sinhala
100%
17.8
21.9
20.3
80%
32.8
21.6
19.8 60%
50.0 37.7
40%
20%
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

ex
lly capable of finding peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
58.3
Page 25
5.4
9
40 60 80 100
%
66.1
50.0
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
29.7
Agree
n amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
the Muslim communities
20.3
11.7
8.5
32.8
16.7
25.4
29.5 29.7
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Up-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
50.0
Disagree 37.7
Agree 71.7
66.1

Page 28
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace throu
Ethnic Breakdown
2.9
28.8
Muslim
50.8
20.3
35.0 Up-Country Tamil
21.7
43.3
21.6
Sinhala
75
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinha
the Muslim commun
100%
21.6 21.6
80%
38.3
35.0
60%
18.3
21.7
40%
76.8 75.5
20%
43.3 43.3
0%
1.6 2.9 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

ex
d to find peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
43.3
75.5
Page 26
50.8
.0
0 60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
n amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
the Muslim communities
35.0
22.0
28.8 38.3
50.8
43.3 43.3
18.6 20.3
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Up-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
18.3
21.7
59.3
Disagree
Agree

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is fully capable in finding peace th
Ethnic Breakdow
17.2
Muslim
29.3
28.1
24.3
0 20 40 6
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinha the Muslim commu
24.3
53
35.0 Up-Country Tamil
21.7
43.3
Sinhala
47.7
100%
80%
30.4
28.1
39.3
35.0
60%
21.7
40%
51.1
47.7 23.0
20%
37.7
43.3
18.5
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

ex
ble in finding peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown
24.3
Page 27
29.3
28.1
53.4
47.7
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
n amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
the Muslim communities
37.7
35.0
1.7
40 60 80
%
43.3
13.8
17.2
39.3
35.0
29.3
29.3
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Up-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
23.0
21.7
Disagree
Agree
56.9
53.4 43.3

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Ceasefire Agreement (CFA)
Some people say that the CFA has brought many while others say that the CFA has not yielded a opinion have Sri Lankans benefited from the CFA
Ethnic Breakdown
2.7
Muslim
16.2
16.7
30.7
0 20 40 60 80 10
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
38.7
30.7
81.1
11.8 Up-Country Tamil
29.4
58.8
Sinhala
52.6
100%
14.9 16.7
26.5
11.8
80%
29.4
44.4
46.4
52.6
17.6 60%
40%
55.9
58.8
55.6 20%
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil Mus

ex
)
FA has brought many benefits to ordinary citizens FA has not yielded any benefits to them. In your
efited from the CFA or not?
Ethnic Breakdown
58.8
Page 28
81.1
52.6
60 80 100
Don't know /Not sure
No, they have not benefited
Yes, they have benefited
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and uslim communities
11.8
2.7
16.2
29.4
44.4
58.8
55.6
June '07 Feb '07 June '07
ntry Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
No, they have not benefited
81.1
Yes, they have benefited

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How satisfied are you with the Government's co Agreement?
Ethnic Breakdow
8.1
16.2 Muslim
24.3
35.1 16.2
2.7
Up-Country Tamil
29.7
56.8 8.1 2.7
15.1 6.2 Sinhala
19.5
38.7 20.5
0 20 40 60
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala, Muslim communitie
100%
9.8
2.1
15.1
12.5
2.7
8.9
80%
8.3
6.2 12.5
29.7
13.3
19.5
24.4 60%
44.4
56.3 40%
38.7
56.8
44.4
20%
35.3
0%
20.5
18.8
8.1
2.7
8.9
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil M

ex
the Government's commitment to the Ceasefire
Ethnic Breakdown
38.7
Page 29
3
35.1
9.7
56.8
40 60 80 100
%
No opinion
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities
2.7
8.9 8.1
29.7
13.3 16.2
24.4
24.3
No opinion
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
56.8
Somew hat satisfied
44.4
35.1
Very satisfied
8.1
2.7
8.9
16.2
7 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
ountry Tamil Muslim

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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the LTTE’s com Agreement?
Ethnic Breakdown
2.9
13.5
21.6 Muslim
48.6 13.5 2.7
14.3
Up-Country Tamil
20.0
34.3 28.6
13.9
63.0 Sinhala
19.5 3.7
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala, Muslim communitie
100%
7.4
13.9 15.6 14.3
80%
9.4
20.0
60%
59.5
21.9
63.0
34.3
40%
43.8
20%
30.8
19.5
28.6
0%
2.2 3.7
9.4
2.9
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 F
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

ex
th the LTTE’s commitment to the Ceasefire
Ethnic Breakdown
4.3
Page 30
48.6
63.0
0 60 80 100
%
No opinion
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
mongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim communities
5.6 14.3
11.1 13.5
9.4
20.0
33.3
21.6
9.4
2.9 2.2 2.7
No opinion 21.9
Not satisfied at all
34.3
Not satisfied
3.8
37.8
48.6
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
28.6
15.6 13.5
b '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
p-Country Tamil Muslim

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission
What is your opinion on the need of a monitoring
Ethnic Breakdow
2.8
Muslim
37.5
0 20 40 60
%
Changes in opinion amongst the S
and Muslim com
33.2
11.1
3.3 Up-Country Tamil
13.3
11.4
Sinhala
51.1
100%
14.5
11.4
12.0
4.0 3.
13.3
80%
60%
52.3
51.1
40%
84.0 83.3
20%
37.5
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

ex
on
need of a monitoring mission?
Ethnic Breakdown
37.5
Page 31
86.1
51.1
40 60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential 83.3
Is essential
pinion amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil
and Muslim communities
4.0 3.3 2.2
2.8
12.0
13.3
17.4
11.1
84.0 83.3
80.4
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Up-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential 86.1
Is essential

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Despite the escalation in violence between the both parties claim that they are abiding by the important is the role of the SLMM at this present
Ethnic Breakdown
10.8
Muslim
8.1
13.5
18.3
42.0
14.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sin
and Muslim commu
15.2 14.3
67.6
13.8 Up-Country
17.2 Tamil
6.9
25.4
62.1
Sinhala
100%
26.4
18.3
15.4 13.8
80%
15.4 17.2 60% 42.0
11.5
6.9
38.2
40%
20.2
25.4
57.7
62.1
20%
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 F
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

ex
olence between the Government and the LTTE, y are abiding by the CFA. In this context, how LMM at this present moment?
Ethnic Breakdown
62.1
Page 32
67.6
4
Don't know /Not sure
Not important
Somew hat important
Very important
42.0
40 60 80 100
%
ion amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil
and Muslim communities
57.7
4.3 15.4 13.8
15.2
10.8
13.5 15.4
17.2 19.6 11.5
eb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Up-Country Tamil Muslim
8.1 6.9
Don't know /Not sure
Not important
Somew hat important
62.1 60.9
67.6
Very important

Page 35
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Foreign Involvement
What is your opinion on the need for an int facilitator to the negotiations, to solve the ethnic c
Ethnic Breakdo
18.3 6.7 Muslim
1.7 1.7 1.7
20.3 18.9
7.0
24.0
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinha the Muslim commu
26.0
24.0
70.0 12.1
Up-Country
3.0
Tamils
3.0
7.6
8.8
21.1
74.2
Sinhala
100%
18.7 20.3 20.6
12.1
3.0
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
8
80%
1.6
3.2
3.0
13 7.6
5
7.0
7.0
0%
1.6 21.2 18.9
60%
6.8 8.8
40%
20.3
21.1
73.0 74.2 71 20%

ex
the need for an international third party as a s, to solve the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
74.2
Page 33
Don't know /Not sure
Not needed at all 70.0
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
40 60 80 100
%
n amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
the Muslim communities
0.6
12.1
8.3
18.3
3.2
1.7
3.0 74.2
71.7 70.0 3.0
Don't know /Not sure 1.6 1.6
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact Is essential and w ill have a positive impact 3.0
13.3 7.6
5.0
1.7 6.7
1.7 1.7
b '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
p-Country Tamil Muslim

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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The Norwegian government has been officially fa since November 2001. Please tell me your le Norwegian role as facilitator.
Ethnic Breakdow
27.1
Muslim
20.3
21.7
21.2
0 20 40 60
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala
the Muslim commun
20.4 21.2
52.5
22.2 Up-Country Tamils
17.5
60.3
Sinhala
57.1
100%
24.5
21.7
26.2
22.2
80%
13.1
17.5
60%
55.1
57.1
40%
60.7 60.3
20%
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 F
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

ex
t has been officially facilitating peace negotiations ase tell me your level of satisfaction with the .
Ethnic Breakdown
1.2
Page 34
27.1
.3
1.7
40 60 80 100
%
52.5
2.2
Don't know /Not sure
5
Not satisfied at all
Satisfied
57.1
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim communities
0.7 60.3
60.3
6.2
22.2
13.6
27.1
23.7 3.1
17.5
20.3
b '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
p-Country Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
Not satisfied at all
Satisfied 62.7
52.5

Page 37
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state if you approve or disapprove of Norw peace process.
Ethnic Breakdow
10.9
22.0
Muslim
18.6 15.3
44.1
15.4 Up-country
9.2 Tamils
18.5
19.9
56.0 13.2
0 20 40 60
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinha the Muslim commu
10.6 10.9
56.9
Sinhala
100%
14.3
19.9 18.3
15.4
80%
6.7
9.2
20.0 18.5 60%
57.1
56.0
40%
55.0 56.9 20%
18.0
13.2
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

ex
r disapprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the
Ethnic Breakdown
56.9
Page 35
44.1
Refuse to answ er
Disapprove
Neither approve nor disapprove Approve
56.0
40 60 80 100
%
n amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
the Muslim communities
18.3
15.4
6.7
22.0
6.7
9.2
30.0
18.6
55.0 56.9 56.7
44.1
eb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Up-Country Tamil Muslim
Refuse to answ er
20.0 18.5
6.7
Disapprove 15.3
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve

Page 38
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What is your opinion of the need for India's inv peace process?
Ethnic Breakdown
16.9 6.8
Muslim
1.7
8.5
3.4
24.5 15.1 7.0 5.5
24.0
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala
the Muslim commun
24.4 24.0
62.7
7.5 3.0 Up-Country
3.0 Tamils
3.0
4.5
24.0
79.1
Sinhala
100%
27.8
24.5
11.1
1.6
7.5 3.0
8.
80%
4.8
1.6 1.6
4.5
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
3.0 3.0 8.
5.3
16
13.7
15.1 60%
8.5
7.0 5.5
40%
20.3
24.0
79.4 79.1
63
20%

ex
e need for India's involvement in the Sri Lankan
Ethnic Breakdown
79.1
Page 36
Don't know /Not sure
62.7
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact
Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
60 80 100 %
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim communities
.1
1.6
7.5 3.0
8.3
16.9
8
1.6 1.6
4.5
1.7
.4 79.1
63.3 62.7
'07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
Country Tamil Muslim 3.0 3.0 8.3 16.7
1.7
6.8 8.5
1.7 3.4
Don't know /Not sure
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact
Is essential and w ill have a positive impact

Page 39
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Incidents that concern Sri Lankans
Out of the following incidents that occurred durin incidents concerned Sri Lankans the most?
Ethnic Breakdown
10.1
43.7 32.0
Muslim
1.5
14.8 2.8
5.2
41.4
Up-Country
2.2
28.4
Tamil
11.4 3.2
13.5
36.5 33.4
Sinhala
3.6
13.4 3.1
0 20 40 60 80
%

ex
Lankans
s that occurred during the last few months, which ans the most?
Ethnic Breakdown
.4
Page 37
3.7
60 80 100
Rise in prices of essential commodities LTTE's Air raids in Colombo
SLFP's political proposal to APRC
Displacement of people in the Eastern Province President's visit to the Vatican
Cricket World Cup

Page 40
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Internally Displaced People (IDP)
According to your understanding, what is the curr Lanka who have been internally displaced due to t
Ethnic Breakdow
7.8
66.7 13.3 Muslim
5.0
6.7
8.3
37.9 19.7 Up-Country Tamil
15.2 15.2 12.1
41.6 10.8 Sinhala
17.3
22.4
0 20 40 60
%

ex
(IDP)
ding, what is the current number of persons in Sri ally displaced due to the ethnic conflict?
Ethnic Breakdown
41.6
Page 38
66.7
40 60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
37.9
Over 200,000
100,000 - 200,000
50,000 - 100,000
Less than 50,000

Page 41
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Media Freedom
Do you think the media reports critical of the gove
Ethnic Breakdown
34.4 1.6
Muslim
3.3
18.0
42.6
43.9
Up - Country
3.0 Tamil
1.5
22.7
28.8
45.3 0.9
Sinhala
2.8
9.8
13.2
28.0
0 20 40 60 80
%

ex
rts critical of the government are;
Ethnic Breakdown
42.6
45.3
Don't know / Not sure
Other
43.9
An expression of unpatriotic behavior
An expression of sympathy for the LTTE
An expression of political instability
An expression of democracy
60 80 100 %
Page 39

Page 42
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Recently there were news reports stating that so and threatened by Government officials and secu opinion in this regard?
Ethnic Breakdown
18.4
30.0 8.3 Muslim
1.7
5.0
28.4 27.4 12.2
0 20 40 60 80
%
55.0
13.6
28.8
Up - Country Tamil
7.6 3.0
13.6
47.0
Sinhala

ex
ports stating that some journalists were harassed ent officials and security personnel. What is your
Ethnic Breakdown
47.0
Page 40
No Response
55.0
I'm not aw are about it at all
I do not believe in these reports
It is true but it has happened only to a selected number of journalists It is true that journalist are harassed in general
60 80 100
%

Page 43
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
“There’s no harm in compromising media f preserving national security.” Do you agree or disa
Ethnic Breakdown
38.6
Muslim
29.8
31.6
46.1
16.1
37.7
0 20 40 60
%
55.4 Up - Country Tamil
40.0
4.6
Sinhala

ex
promising media freedom in the interest of ” Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Ethnic Breakdown
37.7
Page 41
38.6
9.8
31.6
40.0
46.1
40 60 80 100
%
I have no opinion 55.4
I disagree w ith it
I agree w ith it

Page 44
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Emergency Regulations
On the 6th of December 2006, a new set of emerge under the Public Security ordinance titled Terrorism and Specified Activities 2006) were int terrorism in the country.
Do you think the level of violence has increa implementation of these regulations?
Ethnic Breakdown
11.7
Muslim
11.7
42.0
22.9
0 20 40 60 80
%
76.7
10.6 Up-Country Tamil
4.5
35.1
84.8
Sinhala

ex
, a new set of emergency regulations promulgated y ordinance titled Emergency (Prevention of ivities 2006) were introduced in order to suppress
violence has increased or decreased since the ulations?
Ethnic Breakdown
84.8
Page 42
76.7
1
Don't know /Not sure
Violence has decreased
Violence has increased
42.0
60 80 100
%

Page 45
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
“Some people say that the new emergency Terrorism and Specified Activities 2006) could b civilians”. Do you agree or disagree with this state
Ethnic Breakdown
6.1
18.3
Muslim
16.7
43.5
0 20 40 60 80
%
65.0
10.9 Up-Country Tamil
3.1
Sinhala
50.3

ex
he new emergency regulations (Prevention of tivities 2006) could be harmful to ordinary Tamil isagree with this statement?
Ethnic Breakdown
85.9
Page 43
65.0
50.3
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
43.5
60 80 100
%

Page 46
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
“Some people say that the new emergency Terrorism and Specified Activities 2006) are more helpful in combating terrorism”. Do you agree or
Ethnic Breakdown
7.7
43.3
Muslim
10.0
46.7
31.8 Up-Country Tamil
10.6
52.0
40.4
0 20 40 60 8
%
57.6
Sinhala

ex
he new emergency regulations (Prevention of ivities 2006) are more harmful to democracy than m”. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Ethnic Breakdown
57.6
Page 44
43.3
46.7
1.8
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
52.0
40.4
40 60 80 100
%

Page 47
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
LTTE Air Strikes
“Some people say that the LTTE air capability is a security, some say it’s a threat to the national se too much while others say its not a threat to nati your opinion with regard to the LTTE air capabilit
Ethnic Breakdown
15.0
Muslim
1.7
0.6
87.9
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
83.3
6.1
41.5
Up-Country
13.8 Tamil
10.8
5.3
33.8
Sinhala

ex
TTE air capability is a great threat to the national eat to the national security but nothing to worry s not a threat to national security at all”. What is the LTTE air capabilities?
thnic Breakdown
87.9
Page 45
Don't know /Not sure 83.3
It's not a threat to national security at all
Its a threat to national security but nothing to w orry too much about
It is a great threat to national security
60 80 100

Page 48
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Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Do you think the Government has done enoug threats?
Ethnic Breakdown
44.1
Muslim
18.6
37.3
35.4
21.6
43.0
0 20 40 60 80
%
72.7 Up-Country Tamil
12.1
15.2
Sinhala

ex
ent has done enough to mitigate the LTTE air
Ethnic Breakdown
43.0
Page 46
44.1
37.3
5.4
0 60 80 100
%
72.7
Don't know / Not sure
No
Yes

Page 49
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
TNA parliamentarian S. Kajendran recently mad praising the LTTE’s air strikes. He further stated “only to attack identified enemy targets within India.” What is your opinion with regards to his st
Ethnic Breakdown
1.0
54.2 Muslim
22.0 20.3 3.4
Up-Country Tamil
3.2
63.5
11.1
22.2
25.2 13.6 Sinhala
40.0 20.1
0 20 40 60 80
%

ex
jendran recently made a statement in parliament es. He further stated that the LTTE’s air force is nemy targets within Sri Lanka and not to attack
with regards to his statement?
Ethnic Breakdown
40.0
Page 47
54.2
0 60 80 100
%
I w as not aw are of such an incident
No Opinion
63.5
I condemn it
I disapprove of it
I approve of it

Page 50
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
SLFP Proposal
Are you aware of the SLFP proposal to the APRC?
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
3.4
3.4
80
16.0
3.4
%
76.6 Up-Country Tamil
18.8
4.7
Sinhala
0 20 40 60 80

ex
roposal to the APRC?
Ethnic Breakdown
80.6
93.2
60 80 100 %
76.6
No, I am not aw are of it at all
Yes, I am aw are of it to some extent
Yes, I am aw are of it to a great extent
Page 48

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Awareness about the content of the SLFP proposa
The questions asked -
1. What is the proposed unit of devolution in th
11. According to the SLFP proposal, who would b
People who were not able to answer either questio
People who were able to answer only 1 of the 2 qu
People who were able to answer both questions co
The response of the Sinhala
100
80
66.7
60
%
25.7
0
Unable to answ er either question correctly
* The findings of the Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim comm low sample size.
40
20
Answ ered one qu
correctly

ex
t of the SLFP proposal
Page 49
*
nit of devolution in the SLFP proposal?
proposal, who would be the head of the state?
answer either question correctly
wer only 1 of the 2 questions correctly
wer both questions correctly
onse of the Sinhala community
25.7
7.7
r Answ ered one question
correctly
Answ ered both questions correctly
mil and the Muslim communities are not presented due to the

Page 52
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What impact would this proposal have on furtheri
The response of the Sinhala
100
80
60
%
39.6 40
20
9.2
0
A positive impact No impact A ne
† The findings of the Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim comm low sample size.

ex
posal have on furthering the peace process? †
onse of the Sinhala community
9.2
0.5
Page 50
50.7
No impact A negative impact Don't know / Not sure
mil and the Muslim communities are not presented due to the

Page 53
6551
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
According to President Mahinda Rajapakse, the conflict but a war against terrorism. What is your
Ethnic Breakdown
51.7
Muslim
10.0
18.3 20
27.7
Up-Country Tamil
13.8
21.7 9.1 3.9
65.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
55.4 3.1
Sinhala

ex
inda Rajapakse, the current war is not an ethnic rorism. What is your opinion in this regard?
Ethnic Breakdown
65.3
Page 51
51.7
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
It is both a w ar against terrorism and an ethnic conflict
55.4
This is an ethnic conflict
This is only a w ar against terrorism

Page 54
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The TNA and other Tamil political parties have d as regressive and disappointing. Do you agree or d
Ethnic Breakdown
1.9
70.7
Muslim
15.5
13.8
80
17.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
67.7 Up-Country Tamil
4.6
27.7
Sinhala

ex
olitical parties have disclaimed the SLFP proposals ng. Do you agree or disagree with this sentiment?
Ethnic Breakdown
80.8
Page 52
70.7
60 80 100
%
67.7
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree

Page 55
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Human Rights
In your opinion, the government’s response to hum
Ethnic Breakdown
8.5
30.0 23.3 Muslim
18.3
25.0 3.3
13.6
Up-Country Tamil
12.1
71.2
3.0
36.9 5.6 Sinhala
20.0
29.0
0 20 40 60 80
%

ex
ent’s response to human rights violations is,
Ethnic Breakdown
71.2
9
60 80 100 %
Don't know /Not sure
Highly Dissatisfactory
Somew hat Dissatisfactory
Somew hat Satisfactory
Highly Satisfactory
Page 53

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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
In your opinion, the response by humanitarian org violations is,
Ethnic Breakdown
4.9
36.1 19.7 Muslim
16.4
23 4.9
21.5
Up-Country Tamil
21.5
26.2 24.6 6.2
47.7 7.0 Sinhala
14.6
25.7
0 20 40 60 80
%

ex
by humanitarian organizations to human rights
Ethnic Breakdown
47.7
Page 54
.1
60 80 100 %
Don't know /Not sure
Highly Dissatisfactory
Somew hat Dissatisfactory
Somew hat Satisfactory
Highly Satisfactory

Page 57
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Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
In your opinion, the media’s response to human ri
Ethnic Breakdown
7.9
39.7 10.3 Muslim
10.3
34.5 5.2
18.2
Up-Country Tamil
10.6
15.2
42.4 13.6
43.5 6.8 Sinhala
10.3
31.4
0 20 40 60 80
%

ex
response to human rights violations is,
Ethnic Breakdown
39.7
.5
42.4
43.5
60 80 100 %
Don't know / Not sure
Highly Dissatisfactory
Somew hat Dissatisfactory
Somew hat Satisfactory
Highly Satisfactory
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Richard Boucher’s Visit
Assistant U.S Secretary of State Richard Boucher discuss the country’s many issues with the governm
In your opinion, what will be the impact of Mr. B in the peace process?
Ethnic Breakdown
9.8
28.8
54.2 Muslim
3.4 3.4
10.2
17.2
Up-Country Tamil
1.6
51.6
9.4
20.3
29.3
50.3 Sinhala
5.4 5.3
0 20 40 60 80
%

ex
tate Richard Boucher visited the island recently to sues with the government and other leaders.
the impact of Mr. Boucher’s visit at this juncture
Ethnic Breakdown
50.3
Page 56
54.2
60 80 100
%
I am aw are of his visit but I cannot judge the impact
I w as not aw are of his visit
51.6
It w ill have a negative impact
It w ill have no impact
It w ill have a positive impact

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During the course of his visit, Mr. Boucher comm be the basis for the “resumption of peace neg disagree with this statement?
Ethnic Breakdown
18.3
62.5
Muslim
15.0
22.5
33.9 Up-Country Tamil
26.8
39.3
73.4
Sinhala
8.3
0 20 40 60 80
%

ex
t, Mr. Boucher commented that the APRC should ption of peace negotiations.” Do you agree or ?
Ethnic Breakdown
39.3
73.4
Page 57
62.5
40 60 80 100
%
I have little know ledge of the APRC 3.9
Disagree
Agree

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According to news reports, Mr. Boucher also gav the Sri Lankan government to “reign in paramilit and ensure press freedom.” What is your opinion
Ethnic Breakdown
18.0
46.6
Muslim
5.2
34.5 13.8
57.6 7.7
16.7
0 20 40 60 80
%
59.4 Up-Country
9.4 Tamil
7.8
23.4
Sinhala

ex
Mr. Boucher also gave a “very tough message” to to “reign in paramilitaries, improve human rights What is your opinion in this regard?
Ethnic Breakdown
.5
57.6
Page 58
46.6
0 60 80 100
%
No Opinion 59.4
I disapprove of it
I don't know about it
I approve of it

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British All Party Parliamentary Group
The British government recently appointed an Al (APPG) for Tamils. Are you aware of this?
Ethnic Breakdow
18.6
Muslim
72.9
8.5
9.8 Up-Country Tamil
19.7
68.3
12.0
0 20 40 60 80
%
70.5
19.7
Sinhala

ex
tary Group
ently appointed an All Party Parliamentary Group aware of this?
Ethnic Breakdown
68.3
Page 59
72.9
60 80 100 %
I have heard something about it
70.5
I am not aw are of it
I am aw are of it

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To what extent do you agree with the Sri Lan when they disclaim the APPG as “an infringeme Lanka by Britain?”
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
3.8
15.4
15.5
33.4
51.1
%
66.7
Up-Country Tamil
26.7
6.7
Sinhala
0 20 40 60 80

ex
ree with the Sri Lanka Deshabhimani Peramuna PG as “an infringement of the sovereignty of Sri
Ethnic Breakdown
51.1
Page 60
80.8
0 60 80 100
%
I do not agree w ith this
66.7
sentiment
I agree but only to some extent
I agree w holeheartedly
.4

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Cost of Living
Compared to the situation a year ago, do you t country has increased or decreased?
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
Up-Country Tamil
0.3
Sinhala
0.3
1.6
0 20 40 60 80
%

ex
a year ago, do you think the cost of living in the reased?
Ethnic Breakdown
97.8
Page 61
100
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Decreased
Remains the same 100
Increased

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What do you think is the primary reason for the in
Ethnic Breakdown
8.3 8.3
Muslim
4.8
15.0
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala
Muslim communitie
11.3
1.7
1.4
60.0 11.7 10.0
7.6 1.5 Up-Country Tamil
3.0 3.0
7.6
6.0
54.5 10.7
66.7 10.6 7.6
Sinhala
100%
10.1
9.7
4.8 7.6
13.8
2.4
7.6 1.5 3.0
6.8
2.7
1.4
2.9
3.0
5.5
80%
6.0
2.1
8.0
0 6.1
60%
54.5
56.5
66.7
52.3 51.1 40%
20%
10.4
10.7
16.6
6.3
0%
15.0
10.6
20.9 6.6
7.6
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil M

ex
mary reason for the increased cost of living?
Ethnic Breakdown
54.5
Page 62
Don't know /Not sure
60.0
Other
Bad economic management of the previous Governments
Inefficiency of the bureaucracy
66.7
Escalation of conflict betw een the Government and the LTTE
Bad economic management of the present government
Increase of oil prices in the w orld market
60 80 100
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
7.6 1.5 3.0
7.6
6.8 8.3
Don't know /Not sure
5.5 3.0
8.0
0.9
8.3
1.7
Other
Bad economic management of the previous Governments
66.7
52.3
60.0
Inefficiency of the bureaucracy
Escalation of conflict betw een the Government 6.3
and the LTTE Bad economic management
10.6
20.9
11.7
of the present government
10.0
Increase of oil prices in the w orld market June '07 Feb '07 June '07
try Tamil Muslim

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I will bear the present cost of living for the sake fighting against the LTTE
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
13.6
4.3
57.4
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala
Muslim communiti
68.5
57.4
7 6.8
1.5 Up-Country
12.3 Tamil
Sinhala
10.2
28.2
0 20 40 60 80
100%
1.4
4.3 3.2 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '0
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
1.5
0%
9.5
10.2
20.6
8.5
18.6 1.6
12.3
80%
20.7
28.2
60%
74.6
71.2
40%
86.2
20%

ex
of living for the sake of the government’s effort in
Ethnic Breakdown
57.4
Page 63
79.7
60 80 100
%
Refuse to answ er
Don't know /Not sure 86.2
Disagree
Agree
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
3.2 12.3 1.5
8.5
1.7 13.6
71.2
79.7
6.8
7 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
ountry Tamil Muslim
Refuse to answ er
Don't know /Not sure
86.2
Disagree
Agree
18.6 1.6

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I will bear the present cost of living because it President Mahinda Rajapakse to deal with the cou
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
13.6
5.1
3.1 Up-Country
13.8 Tamil
6.5
Sinhala
13.0
36.4
44.1
0 20 40 60 8
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala
Muslim communiti
100%
2.1 6.5 12.2 13.0
57.5
44.1
4.8
3.1
13.8
8.3 19.0 80%
28.2
60%
36.4
73.0
0%
3.2
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
70.0
40%
83.1
20%
18.3

ex
t of living because it is a necessary sacrifice for
to deal with the countries problems
Ethnic Breakdown
44.1
Page 64
81.4
0 60 80 100
%
Refuse to answ er
Don't know /Not sure
83.1
Disagree
Agree
6.4
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
3.1 3.3
13.8
8.3
13.6
70.0
81.4
3.2
7 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
ountry Tamil Muslim
Refuse to answ er
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree 83.1
Agree
18.3
5.1

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Are you satisfied with the action taken by politici with regard to the rising cost of living?
Ethnic Breakdown
2.5
31.0 24.1 Muslim
32.8
1.5
14.6
28.4
0 20 40 60
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala
Muslim communiti
4.6
8.6 3.4
6.2
36.4 18.1
33.8 Up-Country Tamil
55.4 3.1
Sinhala
100%
18.9
14.6
9.5
6.2
10.0
80%
17.0
28.4
39.7
33.8
31.7
60%
25.9
40%
36.4
55.4
41.7
42.9
20%
33.5
18.1
0%
2.5 6.3
1.6 1.5 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '0
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
3.1
16.7

ex
tion taken by politicians of the party you support of living?
Ethnic Breakdown
36.4
Page 65
31.0 1
32.8
8.4
40 60 80 100
%
No Opinion
Not satisfied at all
33.8
Not satisfied 55.4
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
6.2
10.0
31.0 33.8
31.7
24.1
16.7 8.6 1.6 1.5 3.4
7 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
ountry Tamil Muslim
No Opinion
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
55.4
41.7
Very satisfied
32.8
3.1

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By looking at the present situation of the count living will increase or decrease in the next six mon
Ethnic Breakdown
5.0
Muslim
81.4
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes in opinion amongst the Sinhala
Muslim communiti
59.0
3.1 Up-Country
1.5 Tamil
1.5
11.7
Sinhala
2.3
4.6
100%
11.7 9.4
3.1 10.0 21.9
0%
Feb '07 June '07 Feb '07 June '07 Feb '0
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil
1.5
4.6
2.3
1.6 1.6
1.5
80%
9.4
60%
9.7
40%
81.4
87.5
93.8
86.7
20%

ex
ituation of the country, do you think the cost of se in the next six months?
Ethnic Breakdown
81.4
Page 66
95.0
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Will decrease
Will remain the same
Will increase
amongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and
Muslim communities
93.8
86.7
93.8
3.1
1.6
1.5 1.5
10.0
1.7 5.0 1.6 1.7 7 June '07 Feb '07 June '07
untry Tamil Muslim
Don't know /Not sure
Will decrease
95.0
Will remain the same
Will increase

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Federal debate
Federalism and secession
Ethnic Breakdown
20.8
71.2
Muslim
3.4
18.6 6.8
43.1 Up -Country
18.5 Tamil
33.8 4.6
64.9
Sinhala
4.2
10.2
0 20 40 60 80
%

ex
Ethnic Breakdown
71.2
43.1
8
64.9
60 80 100 %
Don't know / Not sure
Don't agree w ith either statement
Federalism w ill ensure a united SL
I think a federal solution w ill lead to secession
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Federalism and ethnicity
Ethnic Breakdown
18.8
74.6
Muslim
3.4
18.6 3.4
43.9 Up -Country
18.2 Tamil
36.4
1.5
66.9
Sinhala
4.3
10.1
0 20 40 60 80 1
%

ex
Ethnic Breakdown
74.6
3.9
66.9
60 80 100
%
Don't know / Not sure
Don't agree w ith either statement
Federalism w ill make all ethnic communities equal
A federal structure w ould be disadvantageous to the majority Sinhala community
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Federalism and the status quo of the Buddhist com
Ethnic breakdown
16.6
75.4
Muslim
4.9
18.0 1.6
45.5 Up -Country
18.2 Tamil
31.8
4.5
68.3
Sinhala
4.9
10.3
0 20 40 60 80 1
%

ex
o of the Buddhist community
Ethnic breakdown
75.4
68.3
60 80 100
%
Don't know / Not sure
Don't agree w ith either statement .5
Federalism w ill make all religions equal
A federal structure w ill threaten the status quo of the Bhuddist community
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Federalism and the economy
Ethnic breakdown
9.6
78.0
Muslim
1.7
3.4
16.9
48.5 Up -Country
16.7 Tamil
3.0
31.8
76.4
Sinhala
4.5
9.5
0 20 40 60 80 1
%

ex
Ethnic breakdown
78.0
48.5
76.4
60 80 100
%
Don't know / Not sure
Don't agree w ith either statement
Federalism w ill impact the economy negatively
Federalism w ill create economic prosperity
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Which of the following best reflects your at constitutional debate?
Ethnic Breakdow
13.1
78.0 6.8 Muslim
11.9
3.4
51.4 4.6
24.6
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
60.3
Up-Country Tamil
27.0 12.7
Sinhala
6.3

ex
est reflects your attitude toward the current
Ethnic Breakdown
4
Page 71
78.0
I do not know how to answ er this questions
I think w e should adopt a federal structure w ithin a united Sri Lanka
60.3
I think w e should have decentralized pow er w ithin the structure of a unitary state
I think w e should amend the present constitution w ithout changing its present unitary state structure and the current status of the Buddhist religion I think w e should retain the present state of the constitution 0 80 100

Page 74
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in June 2
DISTRICT TOT Colombo 15 Gampaha 16 Kalutara 90 Kandy 10 Matale 37 Nuwara Eliya 56 Galle 74 Matara 60 Hambantota 40 Kurunegala 11 Puttalam 58 Anuradhapura 59 Polonnaruwa 30 Badulla 65 Monaragala 32 Ratnapura 81 Kegalle 63 NATIONAL 128
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in June 20
ETHNICITY TOT Sinhala 116 Muslim 66 Up-Country Tamil 60 NATIONAL 128

ex
Annex
distribution in June 2007
TOTAL 156 165 90 103 37 56 74 60 40 118 58 59 30 65 32 81 63 1287
istribution in June 2007
Y TOTAL
1162 66 60 1287
7
i

Page 75
Copyright © Social Indicator June 2007
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) s in public confidence levels towards the peace process ove be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the February 2004, PCI was conducted bi-monthly, howeve decided to conduct the study quarterly to make the PCI mo
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1300 respondents during each phase of the capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of te undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace pro factors, the ethnic factor, which is the most important and i been accommodated in this model.
The total sample is distributed amongst 17 administrat excluding the North and East provinces due to the escala to the survey. The sample size assigned to each strat population proportions. However, some districts are o heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a distr of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Se primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sam Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected random using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 199 Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensure a m within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a max GND. Within a given GND, the enumerator is advised to s proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand the random selection of households.
In the case of urban areas, the interviewer is instructed t households, thus resulting in the interview-taking place at final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the ho ensuring that each member of the household has an equ PCI sample.
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model do analysis at the same level of precision.

ex
nfidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations the peace process over time it is essential that the study al pauses during the study. Hence, from May 2001 to d bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI rly to make the PCI more efficient.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of ring each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to ty within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is ion on the peace process is influenced by a number of e most important and influential, is the sole factor that has
ongst 17 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, ces due to the escalation of violence in the months prior ssigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.
r ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit ons of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of
frame.
work and ensure a maximum dispersion of the sample ed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a merator is advised to select a starting point randomly and ndom walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure .
rviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the erview-taking place at every alternative household. As the is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus household has an equal chance of being selected to the
subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. hat the PCI model does not support the regional level on.
7
ii

Page 76
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