Page 1
An Opinio = حبالہ
Peace Confider
ALSO N THIS WAVE...
PEACE TALKS
SITUATION IN THENORTH & EAST
THE KARUNAGROUP
UNP& THE GOVERNMENT
JVP & THE GOVERNMENT
NORTH & EAST DEMERGER-SUPREME COURT RULING

in Poll On Peace
الكبير.
Ce lindex (PCI)
TOP-LINE RESULTS
NOVEMBER 2006
Social Indicator

Page 2
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
CONTENTS
• INTRODUCTION
• K
EY
N
ATIONAL AND
I
NTERNATIONAL
D
EVELOPMEN
• F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE
• P
EACE
C
ONFIDENCE
I
NDEX
(PCI) TOP-LINE RESULTS
IMPORTANT ISSUES
SOLUTIONS
CONFIDENCE
CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT (CFA)
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION (SLMM)
FOREIGN INVOLVEMENT
• POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
P
EACE
T
ALKS
S
ITUATION
E
AST
K
ARUNA
I
N
T
HE
N
ORTH
G
ROUP
UNP & T
HE
G
OVERNMENT
T
HE
JVP & T
HE
G
OVERNMENT
S
UPREME
N
H
UMAN RIGHTS ABUSES
R
ECENT
C
OURT
R
ULING
O
N
D
E
-M
ERGER OF
M
UHAMALEI
R
ECENT
F
IGHTING IN
K
ILLINGS
C
URRENT
C
ONDITIONS
• A
NNEX
S
ECURITY

ex
01 IONAL
D
EVELOPMENTS
02 08 PCI) 16
16
17
18
FA) 26
MISSION (SLMM) 31
34
39
E
AST
45
47
49
NT
51
O
N
D
E
-M
ERGER OF
N
ORTH
E
AST
57
58
MALEI
61
63
ITIONS
67
r 2006

Page 3
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I
NTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop
public confidence in the peace process using a set of s
unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set o
economic and political developments in order to gauge p
which by definition will change from one wave to another.
Such information, collected over a period of time, will pro
useful barometer of Sri Lankan polity’s opinions, and ens
given due importance and incorporated into the policy deb
SCOPE & METHODOLOGY
The survey is carried out using a structured questionnai
interviews amongst a 1600 randomly selected sample.
administrative districts, excluding the North and East
Fieldwork was conducted during the period of 23 O
However, in order to capture the effect of the Genev
October 2006, the fieldwork was conducted in two phases
23rd October to 27th October 2006. The second phase w
to 06th of November 2006. Data is weighted to reflect th
the districts in which the sample was surveyed.
This is the twenty fourth wave of the PCI study, which w
publication presents only the top-line results of the Novem
The results of these twenty four waves offer us data for a
opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions o
developments. The results are subjected to a 3% margin of
** This particular wave of the PCI only covers the Sinhal
communities in the areas outside North and East.

Index
I
NTRODUCTION
-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of
rocess using a set of standardized questions, which remain
other is to use a set of questions related to recent social,
ents in order to gauge public opinion on the peace process,
m one wave to another.
a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a
olity’s opinions, and ensure that such collective opinions are
rated into the policy debate.
a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face
domly selected sample. This survey was conducted in 17
g the North and East due to the escalation of violence.
the period of 23rd October to 06th of November 2006.
he effect of the Geneva peace talks on the 28th & 29th of
conducted in two phases. The first phase was conducted from
06. The second phase was conducted from 01st of November
is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of
as surveyed.
f the PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This
line results of the November 2006 survey.
aves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public
ging from perceptions of war and peace to current political
jected to a 3% margin of error.
I only covers the Sinhala, Muslim and the Up-Country Tamil
North and East.
r 2006
Page 1

Page 4
J
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa on July 11 stressed there was no to go for maximum power devolution without sacrificing members to be creative and imaginative in their final proposa Conference, the President outlined five key factors around wh said the first of the five factors was the unity, territorial inte said was not open for bargaining. (11 July 2006) - (Daily Mirror
• The LTTE today strongly rejected media reports which sugge and was even prepared to use it against the government secu resume once again. (13 July 2006) - (Daily Mirror on 14 July 20
• At least 13 soldiers have gone missing and are feared dead believed to have been killed, when a clash erupted between t in Batticaloa on the morning of July 14. (14 July 2006) - (Daily M
• The Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) alleged that the government political and psychological operation launched by the LTTE Master. (18 July 2006) - (The Island on 19 July 2006)
• Government officials last week urged international and loc areas to be transparent about their staff, resources and ac military and the LTTE. The request comes amid rumblings am and east was being hampered by security restrictions. (22 July 2
• A non-contiguous administrative unit merging Muslim dominat model similar to that of the Indian Union of Territories, h Congress (SLMC) in its policy framework aimed at addressing This was said by SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem, unveiling the p the party headquarters. (23 July 2006) - (Daily Mirror on 24 Jul
• The JVP is planning to form a broad front with the aim of de sovereignty and independence. They also plan to rejuvenate being violated. (The Island on 27 July 2006)
• The Jathika Hela Urumaya has protested to the British High C permitted to hold a massive rally at London’s Hyde Park on Ju
• The Sri Lanka Air force (SLAF) launched fresh air strikes on sector on July 29, the military said. "Air attacks were carri military spokesman Brigadier Prasad Samarasinghe said. (29 July
• The LTTE on July 30 defended their closure of the Mavil Arau disapproval of the ban imposed on them by the European U 2006)
• The Armed Forces advancing towards the Mavilaru anicut sin by the LTTE, continued to face opposition from the LTTE eve
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) said on July 31 the either the government or the LTTE formally announces its w 2002 by giving the mandatory 14 days notice. (Daily Mirror on
• The Navy on August 1 foiled an attempt by the LTTE to sink a military personnel on board. The vessel was sailing from Kan (Daily Mirror on 02 August 2006)
• The government on August 1 rejected claims it had declared w ongoing military operation if the Tigers gave an assurance t reopened. But the main opposition UNP insisted war had virt 02 August 2006)
• As fighting raged in Muttur August 3, the Tigers fired on tw persons. Sources said that LTTE artillery fire first hit the Mutt (The Island on 04 August 2006)
∗ For the purpose of accuracy, un-dated indicators (in th “yesterday/today/tomorrow” are edited to indicate their exact d
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
K
EY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

Page Index
2
NAL DEVELOPMENTS
J
ULY
2006 – N
OVEMBER
2006*
11 stressed there was no room for peace of the graveyard and vowed tion without sacrificing the country’s sovereignty...Calling upon the ive in their final proposals which would be placed before the All Party ve key factors around which the new Constitution should be based. He the unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty of our country which he July 2006) - (Daily Mirror on 12 July 2006) edia reports which suggested it possessed chemical war fare weapons nst the government security forces in the event an all out war were to Daily Mirror on 14 July 2006)
ing and are feared dead while a large number of LTTE cadres were clash erupted between the military and the LTTE in the Vakaneri area 4. (14 July 2006) - (Daily Mirror on 15 July 2006)
ed that the government had been trapped in a highly advanced military- launched by the LTTE through the concocted heart ailment of Daya n 19 July 2006)
d international and local non-governmental organisations in conflict staff, resources and activities to avoid being suspected by both the omes amid rumblings among some NGOs that their work in the north rity restrictions. (22 July 2006) - (The Island on 23 July 2006) merging Muslim dominated areas in the North and East, preferably in a Union of Territories, has been proposed by the Sri Lanka Muslim ork aimed at addressing the key issues of the North and East conflict. Hakeem, unveiling the proposals at a media briefing held on July 23 at ) - (Daily Mirror on 24 July 2006) front with the aim of defeating terrorism and preserving the country’s also plan to rejuvenate the Mahinda Chinthanaya, which they allege is 2006) ted to the British High Commissioner in Colombo over the LTTE being ondon’s Hyde Park on July 24. (The Island on 28 July 2006) ched fresh air strikes on targets in LTTE-held areas in the Batticaloa "Air attacks were carried out on LTTE camps on July 29 morning", amarasinghe said. (29 July 2006) - (The Island on 30 July 2006) closure of the Mavil Arau anicut saying they had done so to show their them by the European Union. (30 July 2006) - (The Island on 31 July
s the Mavilaru anicut since last Tursday (July 28) to re-open it, closed ition from the LTTE even on July 31. (The Island on 01 August 2006) MM) said on July 31 the Ceasefire Agreement would remain intact until formally announces its withdrawal from the peace agreement signed in
notice. (Daily Mirror on 01 August 2006) pt by the LTTE to sink a troop carrier yet another time with over 800 sel was sailing from Kankasanturai to Trincomalee. (01 August 2006) -
d claims it had declared war against the LTTE and said it would halt the ers gave an assurance that the Mawilaru anicut sluice gate would be NP insisted war had virtually resumed in the country. (Daily Mirror on
, the Tigers fired on two schools killing 15 and injuring 30 displaced lery fire first hit the Muttur Arabic College, killing 10 and wounding 20.
dated indicators (in the reproduced news items) such as d to indicate their exact date.
r 2006

Page 5
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The LTTE yesterday rejected government claims that the Ti shell attack killing 19 Muslims and injuring around 60. LTTE told the Daily Mirror the shells which fell on the three M sheltered came due to an army misfiring directed towards LTT
• The fighting in Muttur ended on August 5 with the LTTE an back to the positions held when the Cease Fire Agreement o August 2006)
• Opposition and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe on Augu assistance for the people displaced by the conflict in Muttur. (T
• The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is holding the government much needed negotiated settlement to the Mawilaru water cr a fresh shell attack on rebel cadres near the anicut last afte water gates. (Daily Mirror on 07 August 2006)
• As shock waves spread over the execution style assassination on August 7 assured it would launch an independent and tran perpetrators to book “whoever they may be.”(Daily Mirror on
• The JVP on August 8 hailed the opening of the Mawilaru slui and said the country should honour the security forces for tha
• Nearly 10% of the country’s Muslim population, or a total of made up of the 35,000 displaced by the Mutur violence, thos Muslims displaced in 1990 and now living outside the Norther said on August 9. (Daily Mirror on 10 August 2006)
• The TULF on August 10 strongly condemned the killing of 17 ‘Action Against Hunger’, which was engaged in tsunami re Anandasangaree said whoever was responsible should be tr Island on 11 August 2006)
• Three UN human rights experts on August 11 urged the Sri L independent investigation into the recent killing of 17 aid Lankans working for the French charity Action Against Hu northeast of the country was a "serious violation" of huma statement released by the United Nations. (Daily Mirror on 12
• As the fighting in the eastern Trincomalee district spilled over and 12 with the war intensifying, Defence Spokesman Ke conference that ``it appears that we are in for a full scale wa defence,’’ he said on being pressed by reporters to say wheth August 2006)
• An (ICRC) convoy of 17 trucks and four cars on August 12 district of eastern Sri Lanka in the early afternoon bringing fo mats, bed sheets, cooking pots and buckets for people fleei August 2006) - (The Island, August 14, 2006)
• The Deputy Head of the Sri Lanka Peace Secretariat Keth suspected LTTE cadres. A group of men in a white coloured his Vandervet Place home in Dehiwela at 9.30 pm. last night. (S
• The SLMM on August 13 condemned the murder of Governm Loganathan. In a statement issued to the media, the SLM Loganathan and for the last time, met him on Friday, August shock, not only to the SLMM but also, for all people longing well founded arguments and his professionalism, has been a him. (13 August 2006) - (Daily Mirror on 14 August 2006)
• The Pakistani High Commissioner Basir Wali Mohamand motorcade on August 14 in Colombo. The High Commissione placed in a trishaw, parked by the side of Green Path, abou roundabout, exploded simultaneously as former key Pak motorcade passed by. (14 August 2006) - (The Island on 15 Au
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006

Page Index
3
ment claims that the Tigers were responsible for Thursday’s Muttur juring around 60. LTTE military wing spokesman Irasiah Illantheriyan ich fell on the three Muslim schools where the civilians were being ing directed towards LTTE cadres. (The Island on 05 August 2006) gust 5 with the LTTE announcing that it had by midnight Friday fallen Cease Fire Agreement of February 2002 was signed. (The Island on 06
ickremesinghe on August 6 appealed to the public for humanitarian the conflict in Muttur. (The Island on 07 August 2006) holding the government totally responsible for the breakdown in the o the Mawilaru water crisis after the security forces allegedly launched near the anicut last afternoon just before the LTTE was to open the ust 2006)
cution style assassination of 15 aid workers in Mutur the government an independent and transparent inquiry into the killings and bring the may be.”(Daily Mirror on 08 August 2006) ing of the Mawilaru sluice gates as a great victory by the government he security forces for that. (Daily Mirror on 09 August 2006)
population, or a total of 150,000, have been displaced with the figure the Mutur violence, those by the tsunami and some 80,000 Northern iving outside the Northern Province, the Peace Secretariat for Muslims 0 August 2006)
ndemned the killing of 17 civilians attached to the France based NGO engaged in tsunami relief work in Muttur. The TULF president V. esponsible should be traced and punished. (10 August 2006) - (The
ugust 11 urged the Sri Lankan government to publish the findings of an ecent killing of 17 aid workers. The deliberate targeting of the Sri arity Action Against Hunger (Action Contre la Faim - ACF) in the rious violation" of human rights and humanitarian law, they added in tions. (Daily Mirror on 12 August 2006)
alee district spilled over to the northern Jaffna peninsula on August 11 Defence Spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella told a Colombo news are in for a full scale war. We believe that attack is the best form of y reporters to say whether Eelam War 4 has begun. (The Island on 13
four cars on August 12 reached the town of Vakarai in the Batticaloa rly afternoon bringing food, water and other items such as tarpaulins, buckets for people fleeing the fighting in the Echilampattai area. (12 4, 2006)
Peace Secretariat Kethesh Loganathan was shot dead last night by en in a white coloured van shot at Mr Loganathan as he came out of a at 9.30 pm. last night. (Sunday Observer on 14 August 2006)
the murder of Government Peace Secretariat’s Deputy Head Kethesh to the media, the SLMM said: “After having worked with Kethesh t him on Friday, August 11, 2006, the message of his death came as a o, for all people longing for peace. Taking part in his experiences, his essionalism, has been a pleasure for all people who got to work with r on 14 August 2006)
Basir Wali Mohamand escaped unhurt in an LTTE attack on his . The High Commissioner’s vehicle was damaged. Two claymore mines ide of Green Path, about one hundred metres from the Liberty Plaza sly as former key Pakistani intelligence officer Mr. Mohamand’s 06) - (The Island on 15 August 2006)
r 2006

Page 6
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Mystery surrounds the death of more than 60 youths and ser in LTTE controlled Paranthan in Mullaitivu last morning. Th orphans of a school in the area and were killed in air force bo were young rebel cadres. The Media Centre for National Secu strikes around 7.30 last morning on an LTTE training base identified by air surveillance. (Daily Mirror on 15 August 2006
• The Government on August 15 dismissed the SLMM claim bombings and reiterated it was an LTTE transit camp at Pudu and 300 wounded, by an SLAF strike. (The Island on 16 Augus
• A European Union representative in Colombo on August 15 only if the Tigers renounced terrorism and stopped killing Tamil leaders. The EU official, speaking to the Daily Mirror in Peace Secretariat Deputy head Kestheshwaran Loganathan st alternative intellectual Tamil and opposition opinions. (Daily Mi
• Over 160 LTTE cadres died in retaliatory attacks by the sec 17. The LTTE launched attacks on the Military Forward Defen Kilali, but the forces retaliated and drove them back. (17 Augus
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa is not accepting three key dem common programme to join the Government, the Daily M appointed committee to formulate counter proposals to the JV take ad hoc decisions as demanded by the JVP. (Daily Mirror o
• Islamabad: A Pakistani newspaper has blamed Indian intellige envoy in Colombo that killed seven people last week. The N India engineered the August 14 attack on Pakistan’s High Mohammad, in an attempt to spoil the burgeoning military Colombo. (Daily Mirror on 21 August 2006)
• NEW YORK (AP) - Emissaries of the Tamil Tigers rebel gr from a black-market source in the United States amid an e Lanka, authorities said. (The Island on 23 August 2006)
• Karuna cadres overran a key LTTE camp at Vadamunnai in Ba cadres and injuring several others, the Karuna faction told t Mohan however charged that the attack was carried out by th by the breakaway LTTE group and added that two civilians Mirror on 23 August 2006)
• Japan has decided to delay moves to freeze the assets of the hostilities between the rebels and government forces, a top August 2006)
• A serious food shortage is developing in the LTTE-controlled entry-exit point at Omanthai, the United Nations World Foo (24 August 2006) - (Daily Mirror on 25 August 2006)
• Outgoing Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission chief Ulf Henricss government security forces responsible for the slaying of responsible for the claymore mine attack on a civilian bus in 2006)
• Media freedom in Sri Lanka took yet another body blow w Nadarajah Guruparan the news manager of the privately ow (Daily Mirror on 30 August 2006)
• A diplomatic row between Pakistan and India loomed on Commissioner to Sri Lanka flatly and bluntly accused the Ind him in Colombo on August 14. (Daily Mirror on 02 September
• A girl working as a graduate computer engineer at MTV Wellawatte, TamilNet reported. Six armed men, in a white-va 200 metres from her Vivekananda Road residence and took h witnesses as saying in a complaint to the police. (Daily Mirror o
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006

Page Index
4
e than 60 youths and serious injuries caused to more than 130 others llaitivu last morning. The LTTE said the young girls and boys were ere killed in air force bombing while the government said those killed Centre for National Security (MCNS) said the air force conducted air an LTTE training base at Puthukudiyurippu in Mullaitivu previously irror on 15 August 2006) missed the SLMM claim that it visited the scene of the Mullaitivu TE transit camp at Pudukudiiruppu, where 200 terrorists were killed (The Island on 16 August 2006) Colombo on August 15 said the EU ban on the LTTE would be lifted ism and stopped killing government representatives and opposition ng to the Daily Mirror in the aftermath of the killing of Government eshwaran Loganathan stressed the need for the LTTE to respect the
sition opinions. (Daily Mirror on 16 August 2006) atory attacks by the security forces, defence sources said on August e Military Forward Defence Lines (FLD) at Muhamalai, Nagarkovil and ove them back. (17 August 2006) - (The Island on 18 August 2006) accepting three key demands submitted by the JVP in the 20-point overnment, the Daily Mirror learns. At a meeting with the SLFP- unter proposals to the JVP proposals, the President said he could not y the JVP. (Daily Mirror on 18 August 2006)
s blamed Indian intelligence for a bomb attack aimed at Islamabad's people last week. The News quoted unnamed officials as saying that tack on Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, Bashir Wali the burgeoning military and economic ties between Islamabad and st 2006)
e Tamil Tigers rebel group conspired to buy surface-to-air missiles United States amid an escalating conflict with military forces in Sri n 23 August 2006)
mp at Vadamunnai in Batticaloa last morning, killing at least five Vanni he Karuna faction told the Daily Mirror. LTTE Batticaloa head Daya ck was carried out by the army and not the Karuna faction as claimed dded that two civilians were brutally killed during the attack. (Daily
freeze the assets of the LTTE on Japanese soil owing to the rise in vernment forces, a top Japanese diplomat said. (Daily Mirror on 25
in the LTTE-controlled Wanni areas as a result of the closure of the ited Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned on August 24. 25 August 2006)
sion chief Ulf Henricsson in a statement on August 27 held the sible for the slaying of 17 aid workers in Mutur and the LTTE ttack on a civilian bus in Kebithogollewa. (Daily Mirror on 28 August
t another body blow with the abduction on August 29 morning of ager of the privately owned Sooriyan FM radio station, police said.
and India loomed on September 1 after Islamabad’s former High bluntly accused the Indian intelligence agency RAW of trying to kill y Mirror on 02 September 2006)
uter engineer at MTV was abducted on September 1 morning in armed men, in a white-van, abducted Thavarajah Thavamani, 26 about ad residence and took her away blindfolded, her mother quoted eye the police. (Daily Mirror on 02 September 2006)
r 2006

Page 7
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• The Army yesterday (September 4) seized control of Sampur intense fighting, President Mahinda Rajapakse said at the SLFP Island on 05 September 2006)
• Heavy fighting between the two LTTE factions erupted at September 5, when the breakaway Karuna group raided the Island on 06 September 2006)
• The decision taken by the Financial Intelligence Unit of the C of Tamil Rehabilitation Organization was reaffirmed by the C Court Judge Upali Abeyratne ordered the freezing of the acco by the FIU. The order was made under the Financial Tran September 2006)
• A top U.N. envoy left Sri Lanka yesterday after a fact-findin human rights minister and a private memorial for 17 local aid (Daily Mirror on 09 September 2006)
• The much-looked forward to talks between President M Wickremesinghe bore fruitful results with both parties citing i in reaching consensus on the grave problems facing the cou 2006)
• The LTTE has unconditionally agreed to recommence p spokesman Minister Keheliya Rambukwella said September 12 to talk through Norwegian Minister for International Develop Island on 13 September 2006)
• The government has agreed to include observers from other Union member-states from the ceasefire monitoring mission spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella said Sri Lanka’s main fina were expected to discuss expanding the depleted Sri Lank September 2006)
• The Government on September 14 demanded a written pledg that his organization will cease all hostilities if he wanted the peace talks aimed at finding a lasting solution acceptable to all.
• A leading Sea Street businessman, his son and one of his unidentified gang as Colombo Tamil residents said the numb 50, police said. The victims, Egamparam (64) Saravanan (27) an home after closing the shop when the alleged abduction t September 2006)
• Karuna faction of the LTTE on September 15 said it had wr between the government and the LTTE would not be com negotiations. (The Island on 16 September 2006)
• While holding talks with the UNP and JVP to reach a polit government is preparing for a major battle. Forces are bei official said. (The Island on 17 September 2006)
• The Navy on September 17 thwarted an LTTE attempt to ammunition and equipment. Navy Headquarters said that an off Sangamankanda in the Eastern Province on Sunday night an Island on 18 September 2006)
• The Navy and the Air force yesterday jointly thwarted an alle Lanka by sinking a large vessel carrying weapons and ammun September 2006)
• International Non Governmental Organisations (INGOs) an against, what a well informed source termed, the gover particularly in the Northern and Eastern provinces. (The Island
• The government said on September 19 there was no need f Pottuvil killings and the trend which took centre stage followi be avoided. (Daily Mirror on 20 September 2006)
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006

Page Index
5
seized control of Sampur from the LTTE, after almost two weeks of ajapakse said at the SLFP Convention at the BMICH yesterday. (The
TE factions erupted at Kanji Kudicha Aru in the Ampara District aruna group raided the biggest Wanni LTTE camp in the area. -(The
ntelligence Unit of the Central Bank last week to freeze the accounts was reaffirmed by the Colombo High Court on September 5. High d the freezing of the accounts for six months following a petition filed nder the Financial Transaction Reporting Act. (Daily Mirror on 06
terday after a fact-finding mission that included a meeting with the emorial for 17 local aid workers killed last month, a U.N. official said. 6)
s between President Mahinda Rajapaksa and UNP leader Ranil with both parties citing it as a positive step for a bi-partisan approach problems facing the country today.(Daily Mirror on 12 September
eed to recommence peace talks with the government, Defence kwella said September 12. The Tigers have conveyed their willingness for International Development Erik Solheim, he told The Island. (The
e observers from other countries after the LTTE expelled European efire monitoring mission, an official said on September 12. Defence aid Sri Lanka’s main financial backers meeting in Brussels yesterday g the depleted Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission. (Daily Mirror on 13
emanded a written pledge from Tiger supremo Velupillai Prabhakaran stilities if he wanted the Government to consider recommencing the olution acceptable to all. (The Island on 15 September 2006) his son and one of his employees were allegedly abducted by an residents said the number abducted in recent weeks was more than m (64) Saravanan (27) and Ganesh Muhandan (22) were on their way the alleged abduction took place, they said. (Daily Mirror on 15
ember 15 said it had written to the Co-chairs that any future talks TTE would not be complete if their party was not included in the mber 2006)
nd JVP to reach a political consensus on the national question, the r battle. Forces are being replenished on an urgent basis, a senior mber 2006)
ted an LTTE attempt to smuggle in a large consignment of arms, adquarters said that an SLN vessel tracked down a suspicious vessel vince on Sunday night and intercepted it September 17 morning. (The
y jointly thwarted an alleged LTTE attempt to smuggle weapons to Sri ing weapons and ammunition off Kalmunai seas. (Daily Mirror on 18
rganisations (INGOs) and their local counterparts are fighting back rce termed, the government’s efforts to restrict their activities,
rn provinces. (The Island on 20 September 2006) 19 there was no need for international assistance to investigate the took centre stage following the killing of aid workers in Mutur should ember 2006)
r 2006

Page 8
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• Norwegian Premier Jens Stoltenberg on September 20 to statements made by former SLMM Head Ulf Henricsson Government. (20 August 2006) - (The Island on 21 September
• In response to a government call that LTTE leader V. Prabhak calling for peace talks the LTTE said September 22 that it wo wing leader S. P. Thamilselvan has been authorised by Prabhak peace process. (The Island on 22 September 2006)
• Sri Lanka's new Nordic peace monitor has been in the job fo and disappointed at what he sees. Since taking over as head of month after his predecessor was forced out by a rebel ultima military offensive and a civilian massacre. (Daily Mirror on 27 S
• The Muhamalai gate to the Jaffna Peninsula will not be re-open are complete, Authoritative Military sources said September 2
• The closure of the A-9 Highway to the Jaffna Peninsula during Informed sources said the LTTE’s finances have been dwindl entry points and their losses have been estimated at millions October 2006)
• President Mahinda Rajapakse wants the Foreign Service to p LTTE. Addressing top envoys in charge of Sri Lankan missions the need to obtain the information needed to strengthen th service," he said, urging them to review their duties. (The Island
• Taking another step closer towards resuming the peace talks sit down for talks with the LTTE from October 28 to 30 as p defence spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella told the Daily Mirr at Geneva in Switzerland and the Norwegians were ex developments. (Daily Mirror on 05 October 2006)
• The Government on October 8 hit out at the European Unio on Sri Lanka at the second session of the UN Human R unwarranted and contradictory to other EU moves. (Daily Mirr
• President Mahinda Rajapaksa on October 9 reiterated his firm pledged to work towards making future talks with the LTTE p successful, when the Ambassadors of the Co-Chair nations ca 2006) - (The Island on 10 October 2006)
• The LTTE on October 9 handed over the bodies of 74 soldie Omanthai, taking the security forces death toll to 129, - th truce. “The ICRC handed over 74 bodies of the soldiers at th soldiers are missing,” Military spokesman Prasad Samarasinghe
• The Supreme Court on October 16 declared the merger of th void. The petitioners, three members of the JVP, were grante for the Eastern Province under Article 154(a)(2)of the Consti 2006)
• A suspected LTTE truck bomber rammed into a navy conv others at a troop’s transit point at Digampathaha in Habaran suicide attack made hours after the arrival of Japanese Spe claimed the highest number of Navy casualties since the signin 17 October 2006)
• The Navy and Police on October 17 traded accusations ove attack on unarmed Navy personnel at Diganpathana in Habara in Trincomalee and others heading South on vacation had gat respective destinations when an explosives laden truck crashe (The Island on 18 October 2006)
• An LTTE suicide squad attack on the Southern Naval base October 18, was foiled by the Navy. Five Tiger suicide craf posing as of fishing boats, but the Navy acted swiftly to destro
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006

Page Index
6
g on September 20 told President Mahinda Rajapaksa that certain Head Ulf Henricsson did not reflect the views of the Norwegian e Island on 21 September 2006) t LTTE leader V. Prabhakaran should personally write to the authorities September 22 that it would not do so since the organisation’s political en authorised by Prabhakaran to deal with all matters connected to the tember 2006) or has been in the job for less than a month and already he is shocked ce taking over as head of the unarmed Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission this ed out by a rebel ultimatum, Lars Johan Solvberg has had to deal with a re. (Daily Mirror on 27 September 2006) insula will not be re-opened to civilians until current Military operations ources said September 27. (The Island on 28 September 2006) e Jaffna Peninsula during the past few weeks has hit the LTTE financially. ances have been dwindling due to its inability to collect ‘taxes’ at the en estimated at millions of rupees, the sources said. (The Island on 03
he Foreign Service to play a more active role in the battle against the ge of Sri Lankan missions overseas, Rajapakse, on October 4 emphasised needed to strengthen the war effort. "This is a kind of an intelligence w their duties. (The Island on 04 October 2006) esuming the peace talks the government on October 4 said it agreed to October 28 to 30 as proposed by the rebels on Tuesday.Government wella told the Daily Mirror the government proposed holding the talks Norwegians were expected to inform the LTTE on the latest ctober 2006)
ut at the European Union (EU) saying that its attempt on a resolution of the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) on Friday was both her EU moves. (Daily Mirror on 09 October 2006) ober 9 reiterated his firm commitment to a negotiated settlement and re talks with the LTTE proposed for October 28th and 29th in Geneva f the Co-Chair nations called on him October 9 morning. (09 October 006)
r the bodies of 74 soldiers to the military through the ICRC officials at death toll to 129, - the highest military casualty toll since the 2002 dies of the soldiers at the Omanthai checkpoint last night, but still four
an Prasad Samarasinghe said. (Daily Mirror on 10 October 2006) eclared the merger of the North and Eastern Provinces invalid, null and s of the JVP, were granted the entitlement to elect a Provincial Council le 154(a)(2)of the Constitution of Sri Lanka. (The Island on 17 October
mmed into a navy convoy killing 94 unarmed sailors and injuring 116 igampathaha in Habarana on October 17 afternoon. This alleged Tiger arrival of Japanese Special Peace Envoy Yasushi Akashi in the island, asualties since the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement. (Daily Mirror on
traded accusations over security lapses which led to Monday’s LTTE t Diganpathana in Habarana. Navy personnel, some bound for their base outh on vacation had gathered at Diganpathana to board buses to their osives laden truck crashed into them killing 97 sailors and injuring 112.
he Southern Naval base ‘Dhakshina’ in Galle, at around 7.45 am on . Five Tiger suicide craft reached the entrance to the Galle Harbour y acted swiftly to destroy them. (The Island on 19 October 2006)
r 2006

Page 9
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
• OSLO: Despite the recent blood letting in Sri Lanka, No scheduled peace talks in Geneva between the government an month. (The Island on 21 October 2006)
• In a report to be presented to the UN General Assembly tom summary and arbitrary executions will ask the UN Secreta human rights monitoring mission in Sri Lanka. (The Island on 22
• History was written on October 23 with the signing of a M SLFP and the UNP. Soon after signing the MoU, at Temple SLFP and UNP had fought the elections on either side of the who supported his Presidential election campaign. The MoU way hurt the friendship he had with those two political partie (The Island on 24 October 2006)
• The Co-chairs to the Tokyo donor conference on October 2 the SLFP and the UNP saying it would help strengthen effort conflict in Sri Lanka. (Daily Mirror on 24 October 2006)
• The de-merger of the North East is not a solution to the ethn it, the SLMC said October 26. (The Island on 27 October 2006
• While deploring attempts to curb media freedom in the nor October 27 ordered an immediate investigation into the bur (Daily Mirror on 28 October 2006)
• Geneva, Oct. 28: The second round of talks between t commenced this morning with Erik Solheim referring to "ter the "unity and sovereignty of one Sri Lankan state". These are and have implications of their own. Opening remarks were m Head of the Political affairs Directorate, Swiss Federal Depa October 2006)
• The LTTE front organisation – Tamil Rehabilitation Organis funds. Despite being the subject of investigations both here operations, the UN Office in Colombo funds the TRO regis Island on 30 October 2006)
• Despite the apparent breakdown of the peace talks between Norway on October 29 sounded a hopeful note and said it both parties to strictly observe the ceasefire agreement and envoy Jon Hanssen-Bauer said he encouraged the parties to a situation and not to draw hasty conclusions or take actions t Sri Lanka. (Daily Mirror on 30 October 2006)
• Government Security forces sources on October 31 explaine to the Jaffna Peninsula was caused by an LTTE attack on the (The Island on 01 November 2006)
• The government on October 31 said it was prepared to reop if the LTTE helped create a suitable environment for such Forward Defence Lines dividing government and rebel te November 2006)
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006

Page Index
7
letting in Sri Lanka, Norwegian peace brokers are confident that ween the government and the Tamil Tigers will take place later this 006)
N General Assembly tomorrow, a special rapporteur on extrajudicial, will ask the UN Secretariat to establish a full-fledged international ri Lanka. (The Island on 22 October 2006)
with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the g the MoU, at Temple Trees, President Mahinda Rajapakse said the ons on either side of the political divide and it was the JVP and JHU ion campaign. The MoU between the SLFP and the UNP would in no those two political parties nor would he forget they had helped him.
onference on October 23 welcomed the agreement signed between ld help strengthen efforts to reach a political solution to the ongoing
24 October 2006) ot a solution to the ethnic conflict even though the Muslims welcome sland on 27 October 2006)
edia freedom in the north and east, President Mahinda Rajapaksa on nvestigation into the burning of Virakesari newspapers in Batticaloa.
nd of talks between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE olheim referring to "terrorism" in Sri Lanka and a solution based on Lankan state". These are significant use of words for the Norwegians pening remarks were made by Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini, Deputy ate, Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. (The Island on 29
il Rehabilitation Organisation (TRO) is a beneficiary of sizeable UN investigations both here and overseas for allegedly funding terrorist bo funds the TRO registered with the government as a NGO. (The
the peace talks between the government and the LTTE in Geneva, opeful note and said it would continue the dialogue while calling on ceasefire agreement and not to launch any major offensives. Peace ouraged the parties to allow themselves some time to reflect on the lusions or take actions that could increase the suffering of civilians in er 2006)
on October 31 explained that the closure of the Muhamalai gateway an LTTE attack on the army’s Jaffna frontline on August 11 evening.
it was prepared to reopen the contentious A9 highway at Muhamalai e environment for such a move including the halting of attacks on vernment and rebel territory in the north. (Daily Mirror on 01
r 2006

Page 10
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
F
INDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED
TO
06TH N
OVEMBER
2006
The following are the significant trends observed in the P important to note that this particular wave of the PCI on Up-Country Tamil communities in the areas outside Nor total exclusion of the Tamil community in the sample, this r national estimations.
♦ When asked to rate five national issues according to Sinhala (Peace process- 30.8%, Economy- 28.0%) , the U 34%, Economy- 27.2%) and the Muslim (Peace pro communities give high priority to the peace process f compared to the PCI findings of July 2006, the prioriti three communities. (Ref. Page 16)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (60.9%), Up-Country Tam
communities state that peace can be achieved through p for peace talks is higher amongst the minority commun the 28th & 29th of October 2006 has not led to a sign Page 17)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (76.6%), Up-Country Tam
communities agree that the Government is committ However, after Geneva Peace talks on the 28th & 29 amongst the Muslim (Before Peace Talks- 63.2%, After has decreased while the support amongst the Up-Cou 44.1%, After Peace Talks- 52.3%) community has increas
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (56.3%), Up-Country Tam
communities agree that the Government is fully capab Interestingly, after Geneva Peace talks on the 28t & 2 significant shift in the support base amongst the Up-C the peace talks, a majority of the Up-Country Tamil (4 Government is fully capable of finding peace through ta talks, a majority of the Up-Country Tamil (41.9%) comm is fully capable of finding peace through talks. (Ref. Page 1
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (70.4%) community disagree th
peace through talks. On the contrary, a majority of community agree that the LTTE is committed to find community has a divided opinion (Agree- 33.3%, Disagr 30.6%). However, after Geneva Peace talks on the 2 disagreement (Before Peace Talks- 70.4%, After Peace T community has increased while the opinion of the Up communities remains the same. (Ref. Page 20)

ndex
HE POLL CONDUCTED FROM
2006 06TH N
OVEMBER
2006
rends observed in the PCI November 2006 survey. It is ular wave of the PCI only covers the Sinhala, Muslim and n the areas outside North and East. Further, due to the unity in the sample, this report does not intend to present
onal issues according to their order of importance, the Economy- 28.0%) , the Up-Country Tamil (Peace process- the Muslim (Peace process- 27.5%, Economy- 25.9%) to the peace process followed by the economy. When of July 2006, the priorities remain the same amongst the 16)
0.9%), Up-Country Tamil (97.1%) and Muslim (92.1%) an be achieved through peace talks. However, the support st the minority communities. The Geneva Peace talks on 06 has not led to a significant change in this trend. (Ref.
6.6%), Up-Country Tamil (44.1%) and Muslim (63.2%) overnment is committed to find peace through talks. talks on the 28th & 29th of October 2006, the support eace Talks- 63.2%, After Peace Talks: 52.6%) community rt amongst the Up-Country Tamil (Before Peace Talks- ) community has increased. (Ref. Page 18)
6.3%), Up-Country Tamil (42.9%) and Muslim (72.2%) overnment is fully capable of finding peace through talks. ce talks on the 28th & 29th of October 2006, there is a base amongst the Up-Country Tamil community. Before the Up-Country Tamil (42.9%) community agree that the finding peace through talks. On the contrary, after peace ntry Tamil (41.9%) community disagree that Government through talks. (Ref. Page 19)
) community disagree that the LTTE is committed to find contrary, a majority of the Up-Country Tamil (64.7%) E is committed to find peace through talks. The Muslim n (Agree- 33.3%, Disagree- 36.1%, Don’t know/Not sure- a Peace talks on the 28th & 29th of October 2006, the lks- 70.4%, After Peace Talks- 77.2%) amongst the Sinhala e the opinion of the Up-Country Tamil and the Muslim
(Ref. Page 20)
r 2006
23RD O
CTOBER
Page 8

Page 11
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (39.5%) community disagree
finding peace through talks. A majority of the Up-Co (61.1%) communities agree that the LTTE is fully capab However, after Geneva Peace talks on the 28th & 29 of amongst the Sinhala (Before Peace Talks- 39.5%, After has significantly increased. (Ref. Page 21)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (44.2%) and Up-Country Tam Sri Lanka is ‘not close at all’ in approaching a permanen when compared to the situation of the peace process a has a mixed reaction in this regard (Close- 32.4%, Rem all- 35.1%). However, after Geneva Peace talks on the 2 who state ‘not close at all’ amongst the Up-Country T After Peace Talks- 54.3%) and Muslim (Before Peace 44.7%) communities have witnessed an increase. (Ref. Pa
♦ When asked who should be involved in negotiations,
community state that only the Government and th negotiations. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil com Government, the LTTE and the international third negotiations. Nevertheless, 22.4% state that only the G be involved in negotiations. A majority of the Muslim Government, Opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Muslim parti should be involved in negotiations. (Ref. Page 23)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (64.3%), Up-Country Tam
communities believe that it is likely a war will resume. community also state that the war has already starte talks on the 28th & 29th of October 2006, those who be increased amongst the Up-Country Tamil (Before Peace 68.1%) and the Muslim (Before Peace Talks- 71.8 communities. Interestingly, those who believe that it decreased amongst the Sinhala (Before Peace Talks- 6 community. (Ref. Page 24)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (54.5%) community agree Government should expand its military action including weaken the LTTE.” A majority of the Up-Country Ta with the statement. Amongst the Muslim community 4 with the statement. However, after Geneva Peace talk 2006, the disagreement amongst the Up-Country Tamil Peace Talks- 51.9%) and Muslim (Before Peace Talks- communities have increased while the Sinhala opinion re
♦ Of those who are aware of the CFA, a majority of the
that the CFA has not benefited the ordinary citizen. A m (68.9%) and the Muslim (87.3%) communities state ordinary citizen. When compared to the PCI July 2006 has not benefited has increased amongst the Sinhala community while those who believe that the CFA has the Up-Country Tamil (July- 79.3%, November- 68.9%) c

ndex
%) community disagree that the LTTE is fully capable in majority of the Up-Country Tamil (55.9%) and Muslim t the LTTE is fully capable in finding peace through talks. alks on the 28th & 29th of October 2006, the disagreement eace Talks- 39.5%, After Peace Talks- 52.2%) community . Page 21)
%) and Up-Country Tamil (47.1%) communities state that approaching a permanent settlement to the ethnic conflict n of the peace process a year ago. The Muslim community gard (Close- 32.4%, Remains the same- 27%, Not close at eva Peace talks on the 28th & 29th of October 2006, those ongst the Up-Country Tamil (Before Peace Talks- 47.1%, Muslim (Before Peace Talks- 35.1%, After Peace Talks- ssed an increase. (Ref. Page 22)
volved in negotiations, a majority of the Sinhala (38.3%) he Government and the LTTE should be involved in p-Country Tamil community, 27.8% state that the the international third party should be involved in 4% state that only the Government and the LTTE should majority of the Muslim (63.2%) community state that the , Tamil and Muslim parties and an international third party ns. (Ref. Page 23)
4.3%), Up-Country Tamil (65.7%) and Muslim (71.8%) ikely a war will resume. Interestingly, 7.5% of the Sinhala war has already started. However, after Geneva Peace ber 2006, those who believe that the war will resume has ntry Tamil (Before Peace Talks- 65.7%, After Peace Talks- fore Peace Talks- 71.8%, After Peace Talks- 78.3%) se who believe that it is likely a war will resume has (Before Peace Talks- 64.3%, After Peace Talks- 58.2%)
4.5%) community agree with the statement that “The military action including even to all out war in order to y of the Up-Country Tamil (88.2%) community disagree he Muslim community 46.4% agree while 42.9% disagree after Geneva Peace talks on the 28th & 29th of October t the Up-Country Tamil (Before Peace Talks- 42.9%, After (Before Peace Talks- 88.2%, After Peace Talks- 92.3%) ile the Sinhala opinion remains the same. (Ref. Page 25)
e CFA, a majority of the Sinhala (52.9%) community state the ordinary citizen. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil %) communities state that the CFA has benefited the ed to the PCI July 2006, those who believe that the CFA d amongst the Sinhala (July- 48.6%, November- 52.9%) elieve that the CFA has benefited has decreased amongst .3%, November- 68.9%) community. (Ref. Page 26)
r 2006
Page 9

Page 12
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ Of those who think that the CFA has benefited the o Sinhala (63.5%) community think that ending of kill important benefit of the CFA. Amongst the Up-Country the peaceful environment in the country is the most im that freedom of movement is the most important bene Muslim (75.7%) community say that freedom of movem of the CFA. When compared to the PCI findings in J response with regard to ‘peaceful environment in the c 79.6%) and ‘freedom of movement’ (July- 94.5%, No decreased. Amongst the Muslim community too, the res movement’ (July- 89.2%, November- 75.7%) has significa
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (83.5%), Up-Country Ta communities are satisfied with the Government’s com after Geneva Peace talks on the 28th & 29th of October 2 Muslim (Before Peace Talks- 79.3%, After Peace Talks- Further there is also a shift in the Up-Country Tam majority of the Up-Country Tamil (55%) community a after peace talks, a majority of the Up-Country Tamil (6 (Ref. Page 28)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (90.3%) and the Muslim (60.7 with the LTTE’s commitment to the ceasefire agreemen Tamil (68.4%) community are satisfied with the LTTE agreement. However, after Geneva Peace talks on the Muslim dissatisfaction has increased (Before Peace T 66.6%) while the satisfaction amongst the Up-Country (Before Peace Talks- 68.4%, After Peace Talks- 61.5%). (R
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (48.6%) and Up-Country Tam
the CFA does not stand anymore. Nevertheless, a community state that the CFA still stands while 28.6% fe
♦ Of those who are aware of the involvement of foreign m (88.5%) and Up-Country Tamil (93.2%) communities th monitoring mission for the CFA to succeed. The Sinhala (Is essential- 42.3%, Not essential- 44.8%). When com 2006, those who think it is essential amongst the Sinhal 48.3%, November- 42.3%) while those who think it is 39.7%, November- 44.8%). (Ref. Page 31)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (59.8%) community disagree w is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreemen Tamil (70.7%) and Muslim (51.9%) communities agree w is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreeme findings of July 2006, the disagreement amongst the 59.8%) community has increased. (Ref. Page 32)

ndex
FA has benefited the ordinary citizen, a majority of the ink that ending of killing in the country is the most mongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 79.6% say that e country is the most important benefit while 76.4% say he most important benefit of the CFA. A majority of the that freedom of movement is the most important benefit to the PCI findings in July 2006, the Up-Country Tamil ful environment in the country’ (July- 86.5%, November- ment’ (July- 94.5%, November- 76.4%) has significantly community too, the response with regard to ‘freedom of ber- 75.7%) has significantly decreased. (Ref. Page 27)
83.5%), Up-Country Tamil (55%) and Muslim (79.3%) the Government’s commitment to the CFA. However, 28 h & 29th of October 2006, the satisfaction amongst the 9.3%, After Peace Talks- 63%) community has decreased. n the Up-Country Tamil opinion. Before peace talks, a amil (55%) community are somewhat satisfied. However, the Up-Country Tamil (60%) community are not satisfied.
%) and the Muslim (60.7%) communities are not satisfied o the ceasefire agreement. A majority of the Up-Country satisfied with the LTTE’s commitment to the ceasefire neva Peace talks on the 28th & 29th of October 2006, the reased (Before Peace Talks- 60.7%, After Peace Talks- mongst the Up-Country Tamil community has decreased er Peace Talks- 61.5%). (Ref. Page 29)
%) and Up-Country Tamil (68.2%) communities state that more. Nevertheless, a majority of the Muslim (44.6%) still stands while 28.6% feel otherwise. (Ref. Page 30)
involvement of foreign monitors, a majority of the Muslim l (93.2%) communities think that it is essential to have a to succeed. The Sinhala community has a divided opinion tial- 44.8%). When compared to the PCI findings of July ential amongst the Sinhala community has decreased (July- le those who think it is not essential has increased (July- f. Page 31)
) community disagree with the statement that the SLMM f the ceasefire agreement. A majority of the Up-Country %) communities agree with the statement that the SLMM f the ceasefire agreement. When compared to the PCI greement amongst the Sinhala (July- 55.9%, November- d. (Ref. Page 32)
r 2006
Page 10

Page 13
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (59.6%) community disagree w is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreemen Tamil (53.7%) and Muslim (46.2%) communities agree w is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreeme findings of July 2006, the disagreement amongst the 59.6%) community has increased. (Ref. Page 33)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (32.9%), Up-Country Tam communities think that an international third party is impact on the peace process. The Sinhala community w third party is essential and will have a positive impac compared to the Up-Country Tamil and Muslim commu
♦ When asked about the level of satisfaction with the
majority of the Sinhala (53.2%) community are not Country Tamil (69.5%) and Muslim (64.1%) communitie talks on the 28th & 29th of October 2006 has not led to (Ref. Page 35)
♦ When asked if they approve or disapprove of Norway process, a majority of the Sinhala (66.9%) community d Country Tamil (69%) and the Muslim (64.5%) commun talks on the 28th & 29th of October 2006 has not led to (Ref. Page 36)
♦ Asked as to the most suitable country that should play t
process, 21.2% of the Sinhala community says that the country to play the role of facilitator. Amongst the Sinha India is the most suitable country while 41.2% has no op Up-Country Tamil community, 49.4% think India is the role of facilitator to the peace process while 21.7% th country. Amongst the Muslim community, 27.4% says I while 19.2% says Norway. (Ref. Page 37)
♦ When asked about the need for India’s involvement in the Sinhala (49.6%), Up-Country Tamil (83.8%) and the involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process will have those who believe that India’s involvement will have a the Up-Country Tamil community. (Ref. Page 38)
♦ When people were asked as to why they think the Gov
majority of the Sinhala (66.4%) and Muslim (50%) comm their commitment to the peace process. A majority o community state that it is because of international p Peace talks on the 28th & 29th of October 2006, there h Up-Country Tamil opinion. Those who believe that th talks because of the international pressure have signi Talks- 57.7%, After Peace Talks- 38.5%) while those wh commitment to the peace process have significantly 19.2%, After Peace Talks- 46.2%). (Ref. Page 39)

ndex
) community disagree with the statement that the SLMM f the ceasefire agreement. A majority of the Up-Country %) communities agree with the statement that the SLMM f the ceasefire agreement. When compared to the PCI greement amongst the Sinhala (July- 50.6%, November- d. (Ref. Page 33)
2.9%), Up-Country Tamil (79.3%) and Muslim (76.6%) rnational third party is essential and will have a positive he Sinhala community who believes that an international ll have a positive impact on the peace process is lower
amil and Muslim communities. (Ref. Page 34)
of satisfaction with the Norwegian role as facilitator, a ) community are not satisfied. A majority of the Up- slim (64.1%) communities are satisfied. The Geneva Peace ber 2006 has not led to a significant change in this trend.
r disapprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace la (66.9%) community disapproves. A majority of the Up- Muslim (64.5%) community approves. The Geneva Peace ber 2006 has not led to a significant change in this trend.
ountry that should play the role of facilitator to the peace ommunity says that the United States is the most suitable itator. Amongst the Sinhala community another 19.4% says ry while 41.2% has no opinion in this regard. Amongst the 49.4% think India is the most suitable country to play the process while 21.7% think Norway is the most suitable community, 27.4% says India is the most suitable country . Page 37)
r India’s involvement in the peace process, a majority of y Tamil (83.8%) and the Muslim (57.3%) think that India’s peace process will have a positive impact. Interestingly, involvement will have a positive impact is higher amongst ity. (Ref. Page 38)
why they think the Government is willing to start talks, a and Muslim (50%) communities state that it is because of e process. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (57.7%) cause of international pressure. However, after Geneva f October 2006, there has been an interesting shift in the ose who believe that the Government is willing to start nal pressure have significantly decreased (Before Peace - 38.5%) while those who think that it is because of their ocess have significantly increased (Before Peace Talks- ). (Ref. Page 39)
r 2006
Page 11

Page 14
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ When people were asked as to why they think the majority of the Sinhala (40.1%) community think that it more time. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community commitment to the peace process while 34.6% think tha pressure. The Muslim community has a mixed opinion in peace process- 28.6%, International pressure- 25%, LTT Don’t know/not sure- 25%). However, after the peace t of October 2006, those who believe that the LTTE is their commitment to the peace process have significan (Before Peace Talks- 28.6%, After Peace Talks- 40%) an Peace Talks- 42.3%, After Peace Talks- 50%) commu remains the same. (Ref. Page 40)
♦ When asked about the sincerity of the Government in g
the Sinhala (87.8%), Up-Country Tamil (58.3%) and the M that the Government is sincere. However, after Geneva October 2006, those who say that the government is Tamil (Before Peace Talks- 58.3%, After Peace Talks- Peace Talks- 78.5%, After Peace Talks- 66.7%) comm Sinhala opinion remains the same. (Ref. Page 41)
♦ When asked about the sincerity of the LTTE in going
Sinhala (78.7%) community think that the LTTE is not sin change due to peace talks. A majority of the Up-Coun (50%) communities think that the LTTE is sincere in goin the peace talks in Geneva on the 28th & 29th of October LTTE is sincere has significantly decreased amongst the Talks- 68%, After Peace Talks- 53.3%) community. Inte shifted from its earlier stand. Prior to peace talks, community think that the LTTE is sincere in going for peace talks, a majority of the Muslim (46.7%) commu sincere at all. (Ref. Page 42)
♦ When people were asked as to what should be the tal the LTTE about, a majority of the Sinhala (Core polit ceasefire- 9.5%, Both- 26.8%), Up-Country Tamil (Cor the ceasefire- 12%, Both- 28%) and Muslim (Core poli ceasefire- 13.8%, Both- 17.2%) communities has mixed o
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (56%), Up-Country Tamil (44 of the Muslim (93.1%) communities state that ther representation at the peace talks. (Ref. Page 44)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (41.1%) and Muslim (47.7%) c in the north and east are getting adequate food and med of the Up-Country Tamil (58.2%) community think that are not getting adequate food and medical supplies. (Ref.

ndex
to why they think the LTTE is willing to start talks, a community think that it is because the LTTE wants to buy ountry Tamil community, 42.3% think it is because of their ess while 34.6% think that it is because of the international ty has a mixed opinion in this regard (Commitment to the onal pressure- 25%, LTTE wants to buy more time- 17.9%, wever, after the peace talks in Geneva on the 28th & 29th believe that the LTTE is willing to start talks because of process have significantly increased amongst the Muslim ter Peace Talks- 40%) and the Up-Country Tamil (Before ace Talks- 50%) communities while the Sinhala opinion 0)
of the Government in going for peace talks, a majority of y Tamil (58.3%) and the Muslim (78.5%) communities think . However, after Geneva Peace talks on the 28th & 29th of that the government is sincere amongst the Up-Country .3%, After Peace Talks- 46.7%) and the Muslim (Before ce Talks- 66.7%) communities have decreased while the
e. (Ref. Page 41)
y of the LTTE in going for peace talks, a majority of the k that the LTTE is not sincere. The Sinhala opinion did not majority of the Up-Country Tamil (68%) and the Muslim he LTTE is sincere in going for peace talks. However, after e 28th & 29th of October 2006, those who believe that the decreased amongst the Up-Country Tamil (Before Peace 53.3%) community. Interestingly, the Muslim opinion has Prior to peace talks, a majority of the Muslim (50%) E is sincere in going for peace talks. Nevertheless, after Muslim (46.7%) community think that the LTTE is not
what should be the talks between the Government and the Sinhala (Core political issues- 24.6%, Amending the Up-Country Tamil (Core political issues- 32%, Amending and Muslim (Core political issues- 24.1%, Amending the ommunities has mixed opinion. (Ref. Page 43)
), Up-Country Tamil (44%) and an overwhelming majority unities state that there should be a separate Muslim s. (Ref. Page 44)
%) and Muslim (47.7%) communities think that the people g adequate food and medical supplies. However, a majority %) community think that the people in the north and east nd medical supplies. (Ref. Page 45)
r 2006
Page 12

Page 15
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (67.5%) community think that
enough to ensure the adequate supply of food and m Country Tamil (65%) community think that the actors to ensure the adequate supply of food and medicine. Th opinion in this regard (Yes- 28.8%, No- 25.8%). (Ref. Page
♦ With regard to the recent news reports that indicate K
in future talks, a majority of the Sinhala (47.8%) comm have Karuna faction representation in future talks important. 36.2% of the Sinhala community don’t know Country Tamil community, 36.6% say it is not importan sure. Amongst the Muslim community, 32.5% think it know or not sure. (Ref. Page 47)
♦ With regard to the LTTEs allegations on the Governme
23.2% of the Sinhala community think that the Govern no relationship while 58% don’t know or not sure. community, 18.8% think that the Government is assistin joint military operations with them while 57.5% don’t Muslim community, 16.9% think that the Government but allowing them to operate freely in Government c know or not sure. (Ref. Page 48)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (78.7%), Up-Country Tam
communities believe that the consensus between the positive impact on the peace process. (Ref. Page 49)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (71.5%), Up-Country Tam
communities believe that the consensus between the positive impact on the country at large. (Ref. Page 50)
♦ Of the people who are aware of the JVP politburos cla to unconditional talks with the LTTE is a violation of th by the people at the last presidential elections, 28.6% o while 22.9% of the Sinhala community agree. The Up- divided opinion (Agree- 25.3%, Disagree- 25.3%). Amon of the Muslim community disagrees while 15.8% agree. (R
♦ Of the people who are aware of the collapse of talks b JVP in forming a political alliance, a majority of the Sinha communities think that it will have a negative impact o Country Tamil community has a mixed opinion (Positive 37%). (Ref. Page 52)
This wave of the PCI has ascertained the public opinion on by the JVP. The responses are as follows;
♦ Abrogating the CFA: A majority of the Sinhala (43
Nevertheless, 29.2% oppose while 27% support thi majority of the Up-Country Tamil (59.5%) and the opposed to the idea of abrogating the CFA. (Ref. Pag

ndex
%) community think that the actors responsible are doing te supply of food and medicine. A majority of the Up- ty think that the actors responsible are not doing enough of food and medicine. The Muslim community has a mixed
%, No- 25.8%). (Ref. Page 46)
s reports that indicate Karuna’s willingness to participate e Sinhala (47.8%) community think that it is important to tation in future talks while 16% think that it is not a community don’t know or not sure. Amongst the Up- 6% say it is not important while 54.9% don’t know or not mmunity, 32.5% think it is important while 48.1% don’t 7)
ations on the Government of assisting the Karuna group, y think that the Government and the Karuna group have n’t know or not sure. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil e Government is assisting the Karuna group and carry out hem while 57.5% don’t know or not sure. Amongst the k that the Government is not assisting the Karuna group freely in Government controlled areas while 61% don’t 8)
8.7%), Up-Country Tamil (64.6%) and Muslim (65.8%) consensus between the UNP and the SLFP will have a ocess. (Ref. Page 49)
1.5%), Up-Country Tamil (57.3%) and Muslim (67.1%) consensus between the UNP and the SLFP will have a at large. (Ref. Page 50)
of the JVP politburos claim that the Government agreeing LTTE is a violation of the mandate given to the president ential elections, 28.6% of the Sinhala community disagree munity agree. The Up-Country Tamil community has a Disagree- 25.3%). Amongst the Muslim community, 35.5% ees while 15.8% agree. (Ref. Page 51)
of the collapse of talks between the Government and the e, a majority of the Sinhala (48.7%) and the Muslim (51.9%) have a negative impact on the country at large. The Up- a mixed opinion (Positive impact- 44.4%, Negative impact-
ed the public opinion on four of the 20 points put forward
llows;
ajority of the Sinhala (43.8%) community has no opinion. e while 27% support this demand of the JVP. However, a y Tamil (59.5%) and the Muslim (69.7%) communities are
gating the CFA. (Ref. Page 53)
r 2006
Page 13

Page 16
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ Removing Norway from the peace facilitator role:
community support it. However, a majority of the U Muslim (58.7%) communities are opposed to it. (Ref.
♦ De-merger of the North East: A majority of the S
opinion. Nevertheless, 28.6% support it while 22.8% However, a majority of the Muslim (57.3%) comm Country Tamil community has a divided opinion Support- 48.7%). (Ref. Page 55)
♦ Reducing the cabinet to 30 members: A majority o shows their support. However, a majority of community has no opinion. A majority of the Muslim to it. (Ref. Page 56)
♦ Of the people who are aware of the Supreme Court ru that merger of North and East is invalid, a majority of t that it will have positive impact on the peace process Tamil (82.8%) and Muslim (51.7%) communities think t on the peace process. (Ref. Page 57)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (62.1%), Up-Country Tamil
communities think that the Government of Sri Lank protection of human rights. (Ref. Page 58)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (54.7%) community think protecting human rights has done enough to protect hu Country Tamil (77.3%) community think the actor r rights has not done enough to protect human rights. Th opinion in this regard (Yes- 43.8%, No- 37.5%). (Ref. Page
♦ Answering to the President’s call for a national commiss killings with an international panel of observers, a major Up-Country Tamil (53.2%) communities express that t regard while a majority of the Muslim (44.3%) commu commission of observers. (Ref. Page 60)
♦ When asked about the media reports which indicated
are committed to battle in Muhamalei without the know majority of the Sinhala (51.8%) community do not bel (54.8%) community believe it. A majority of the Up-C don’t know or not sure. (Ref. Page 61)
♦ Of the people who believe the media reports which in forces are committed to battle in Muhamalei withou leadership, a majority of the Sinhala (56.8%), Up-Count (64.7%) community disapproves of it. (Ref. Page 62)

ndex
e peace facilitator role: A majority of the Sinhala (46.9%) ever, a majority of the Up-Country Tamil (57.5%) and the s are opposed to it. (Ref. Page 54)
ast: A majority of the Sinhala (48.6%) community has no % support it while 22.8% oppose this demand of the JVP. e Muslim (57.3%) community are opposed to it. The Up- has a divided opinion in this regard (Oppose- 48.7%, 55)
members: A majority of the Sinhala (62.3%) community wever, a majority of the Up-Country Tamil (43.8%) A majority of the Muslim (42.7%) community are opposed
f the Supreme Court ruling on the 16th of October 2006, is invalid, a majority of the Sinhala (39%) community think ct on the peace process. A majority of the Up-Country 7%) communities think that it will have a negative impact e 57)
1%), Up-Country Tamil (72.1%) and the Muslim (62.2%) overnment of Sri Lanka has the responsibility for the ef. Page 58)
4.7%) community think that the actor responsible for ne enough to protect human rights. A majority of the Up- unity think the actor responsible for protecting human protect human rights. The Muslim community has a mixed
%, No- 37.5%). (Ref. Page 59)
ll for a national commission to investigate into the recent nel of observers, a majority of the Sinhala (51.6%) and the munities express that they don’t have an opinion in this Muslim (44.3%) community demand for an international Page 60)
reports which indicated that the Sri Lankan armed forces amalei without the knowledge of the political leadership, a community do not believe it. A majority of the Muslim A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (58.8%) community age 61)
media reports which indicate that the Sri Lankan armed le in Muhamalei without the knowledge of the political nhala (56.8%), Up-Country Tamil (85.7%) and the Muslim
of it. (Ref. Page 62)
r 2006
Page 14

Page 17
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-Line Results
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (43.3%) and the Up-Country
that the recent confrontation with the LTTE has resu killings. Amongst the Muslim community, 48% believe i sure. (Ref. Page 63)
♦ With regard to the number of abductions of Tamil ci Sinhala community says that the LTTE is responsible wh A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (58.5%) community Lanka is responsible for the abduction. A majority of don’t know or not sure. (Ref. Page 64)
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (59.2%) community think tha recent killings of the 17 aid workers in Mutur. A m (44.4%) community think that the Government forces majority of the Muslim (64%) community don’t know or
♦ A majority of the Sinhala (65.2%) community think tha
recent killings of the 10 Muslims in Pottuvil. A majority and the Muslim (56%) community don’t know or not sur
♦ With regard to the security situation in the country, thinks that the security condition has turned bad while Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, a majorit condition has turned bad. Amongst the Muslim com improved while 34.2% think that it has turned bad. (Ref. P
For further information please
Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Ran
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternat
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@d Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://ww

ndex
%) and the Up-Country Tamil (82.5%) community believe with the LTTE has resulted in a large number of civilian ommunity, 48% believe it while 46.7% don’t know or not
f abductions of Tamil civilians in Colombo, 41.5% of the LTTE is responsible while 54.3% don’t know or not sure. Tamil (58.5%) community think that the government of Sri bduction. A majority of the Muslim (71.1%) community age 64)
%) community think that the LTTE is responsible for the orkers in Mutur. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil the Government forces are responsible for the killings. A
mmunity don’t know or not sure. (Ref. Page 65)
%) community think that the LTTE is responsible for the s in Pottuvil. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (61%) ty don’t know or not sure. (Ref. Page 66)
ituation in the country, 43.1% of the Sinhala community on has turned bad while 34.5% think that it has improved. il community, a majority (86.8%) think that the security ongst the Muslim community, 40.8% think that it has t it has turned bad. (Ref. Page 67)
rther information please contact:
eep Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe
Social Indicator entre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
70472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
r 2006
Page 15

Page 18
5216
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Peace Confidence Index (P May 2001 – November 20
Important Issues Rating the degree of importance of five national issues.
Ethnic Breakdown
9.1
27.5 Muslim
21.4 16.2
9.4
30.8 15.8
28.0
0 10 20 30
%
25.9
9.5
Up-Country Tamil
34. 16.5 12.8
15.9
27.2
Sinhala

x
eace Confidence Index (PCI) ay 2001 – November 2006
f five national issues.
Ethnic Breakdown
21.4
27.5
The Tsunami Recovery
2
The peace process in Sri Lanka
Conflict betw een different ethnic groups
Law and Order
The Economy
30.8 8
28.0
20 30 40
25.9
9
34.0 .5
27.2
06
Page 16

Page 19
5217
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Solutions How do you think we can end the war and have peace in S
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks in
October 2006)
2.6 2.6 Muslim
92.1
2.6
2.9 Up-Country Tamil
5.2
8.2
0.3
25.4
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in G
October 2006)
26
97.1
Sinhala
60.9
Muslim
%
100
2.1 Up-Country Tamil
97.9
4.5
11.7 Sinhala
57.6 0.3
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

x
war and have peace in Sri Lanka?
fore Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
60.9
Don't know /Not sure
Conducting peace talks w hile having military offensive Peace Talks
LTTE defeating the Government
Government defeating the LTTE
fter Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
6
92.1
97.1
60 80 100
100
Don't know /Not sure
Conducting peace talks w hile having military offensive
Peace Talks 97.9
LTTE defeating the Government
Government defeating the LTTE
80 100 120
06
Page 17

Page 20
5218
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Confidence I think the Government is committed to find peace through
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks
October 2006)
21.1
Muslim
15.8
63.2
20.6
Up-country Tamil
35.3
44.1
12.8
Sinhala
10.6
0 20 40 60
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in G
October 2006)
23.7
Muslim
23.7
9.3
7
0 20 40 60 80
%
52.6
11
18.2
Up-country Tamil
29.5
52.3
Sinhala

x
ted to find peace through talks.
- Before Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
76.6
Don't know /Not sure
63.2
Disagree
Agree
35.3
44.1
40 60 80 100
%
fter Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
79.7
Don't know /Not sure
52.6
Disagree
Agree
0 60 80 100
%
52.3
06
Page 18

Page 21
5219
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Government is fully capable of finding peace thro
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks i
29th October 2006)
11.1
Muslim
16.7
22.9 Up-Country Tamil
34.3
42.9
26.3
Sinhala
17.4
56.3
0 20 40 60
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in G
October 2006)
7.9
Muslim
21.1
23.3
Up-Country Tamil
41.9
34.9
20
Sinhala
23.4
56.6
0 20 40 60
%

x
able of finding peace through talks.
Before Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th October 2006)
56.3
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
fter Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
56.6
72.2
4.3
40 60 80
%
42.9
Don't know /Not sure 71.1
Disagree
Agree
41.9
34.9
40 60 80
%
06
Page 19

Page 22
5220
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks in G
29th October 2006)
2.2
30.6
Muslim
36.1
27.4
0 20 40 60
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in Ge
October 2006)
2.3
33.3
23.5
Up-Country Tamil
11.8
64.7
Sinhala
7
29.7
Muslim
35.1
35.1
25
Up-Country Tamil
13.6
20.5
77.2
0 20 40 60 80
%
61.4
Sinhala

x
ind peace through talks.
fore Peace Talks in Geneva (28th &
October 2006)
36.1
64.7
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure .3
Disagree
Agree
70.4
r Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th October 2006)
61.4
77.2
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
06
Page 20

Page 23
5221
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the LTTE is fully capable in finding peace through tal
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks in
29th October 2006)
13.9
Muslim
25
35
25.5
0 20 40 60
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in G
October 2006)
20.6
61.1
29.4 Up-Country Tamil
14.7
39.5
55.9
Sinhala
13.5
Muslim
24.3
27.2
0 20 40 60
%
62.2
25.6
Up-Country Tamil
23.3
51.2
Sinhala
52.2

x
finding peace through talks.
efore Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 9th October 2006)
55.9
Don't know /Not sure
Disagree
Agree
fter Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
51.2
61.1
39.5
0 60 80 %
Don't know /Not sure 62.2
Disagree
Agree
52.2
40 60 80
%
06
Page 21

Page 24
5222
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Compared to the situation of the peace process a year country, at present, in approaching a permanent settlement
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks in G
29th October 2006)
5.4
Muslim
27
28.2
35.1
32.4
2.9 Up-Country
47.1 Tamil
29.4 20.6
12.1
Sinhala
15.5
44.2
0 20 %
40 6
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in G
October 2006)
5.3
Muslim
18.4
26.3
0 20 40
44.7
31.6
8.7 Up-Country
54 Tamil
28.3 8.7
12.3
Sinhala
20.3
41.2
%

x
e peace process a year ago, how close do you think is the
a permanent settlement to the ethnic conflict?
fore Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & h October 2006)
2
35.1
40 60
Don't know /Not sure
32.4
Not close at all
Remains the same
Close 47.1 .4
44.2
fter Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
3
44.7
40 60
Don't know /Not sure
31.6
Not close at all
Remains the same
Close
8.3
41.2
54.3
06
Page 22

Page 25
5223
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If peace is to be found through negotiations, according to y in negotiations?
Ethnic Breakdown
15.8
Muslim
15.8
63.2
1.3
3.9
6.3
Up-Country Tamil
1.3
3.8
20.3
17.7
22.8
27.8
Sinhala
3.5
5.5
8.5
9.4
10.1 10.5
14.2
38.3
0 20 40 60 80
%

x
gotiations, according to your opinion, who should be involved
Ethnic Breakdown
63.2
60 80
Don't know / Not sure
No peace talks
Govt., Opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Muslim parties and an international third Govt, party
opposition, LTTE, Tamil and Muslim parties only
Govt. Opposition, LTTE , other Tamil parties, and an international third party
Govt. Opposition, LTTE and other Tamil parties only
Govt. LTTE and International third party only
Govt. and the LTTE only
06
Page 23

Page 26
5224
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Given the current situation in the country, how likely is it t
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks in
29th October 2006)
12.8 Muslim
5.1
10.3
30.8
7.5
18.3 2.7
7.1
37.4
0 20 40
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in G
October 2006)
28.2
41
22.9 Up-Country Tamil
5.7 5.7
28.6
26.9
37.1
Sinhala
8.1 Muslim
5.4
8.1
7
24.7 2.6
0 20 40
%
35.1
7.4
43.2
17
Up-Country Tamil
4.3
10.6
23.4
30
44.7
Sinhala

x
country, how likely is it that war will resume?
efore Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 9th October 2006)
37.4
War has already started
30.8
Don'y know / Not sure
Very unlikely
2.9
Somew hat unlikely
Somew hat likely
Very likely
40 60
%
fter Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
28.2
41
28.6
26.9
37.1
War has already started 35.1
Don'y know / Not sure
Very unlikely
Somew hat unlikely
Somew hat likely
Very likely
4.7
40 60
%
43.2
.4
30
44.7
06
Page 24

Page 27
5225
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
“The Government should expand its military action inclu weaken the LTTE.” Do you agree or disagree with this stat
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks in Ge
October 2006)
10.7
Muslim
42.9
46.4
5.9
Up-Country Tamil
5.9
21.7
Sinhala
23.8
54.5
0 20 40 60 80
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in Gene
October 2006)
Muslim
51.9
48.1
Up-Country Tamil
92
7.7
17.8
Sinhala
27.3
55
0 20 40 60 80 1
%

x
its military action including even to all out war in order to or disagree with this statement?
re Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th October 2006)
2.9
54.5
60 80 100
%
Don't Know /Not sure 46.4
Disagree
Agree
88.2
Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th ctober 2006)
51.9
55
60 80 100
Don't Know /Not sure 8.1
Disagree
Agree
92.3
06
Page 25

Page 28
5226
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) Some people say that the CFA has brought many benefits that the CFA has not yielded any benefits to them. In you from the CFA or not?
Ethnic Breakdown
1.8
Muslim
10.9
14.0
33.1
0 20 40 60 80
%
Changes of opinion of Sinhala, Up-Count
communities
45.8
39.1
33.1
87
6.7 Up-Country Tamil
24.4
52.9
68.9
Sinhala
100%
May '06
6.9 6.7 4
52.9
7.7
0%
18.4
12.2
14.0
13.8 7 80%
24.4
60%
35.8 48.6
40%
79.3
88
65.4
68.9
20%
July '06
Nov '06
May '06
July '06
Nov '06
M '0
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
s brought many benefits to ordinary citizens while others say benefits to them. In your opinion have Sri Lankans benefited
Ethnic Breakdown
68.9
87.3
52.9
60 80 100
Don't know /Not sure
No, they have not benefited
Yes, they have benefited
of Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and Muslim
communities
.4
1.8 7
ay 6
6.9 6.7 13.8
4.8 4.9 7.1
9.8
10.9
24.4
Don't know /Not sure
No, they have not benefited
Yes, they have benefited
79.3
88.1
85.4
87.3
68.9
July '06
Nov '06
May '06
July '06
Nov '06
p-Country Tamil Muslim
06
Page 26

Page 29
5227
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If the answer is "Yes", please tell me three most important
Ethnic Breakdown
0.2
2.1
Muslim
4.1
24.6
57.1
59.3
4.2 3.9
54.0
75.7
48.4
Up-Country Tamil
4
7.5
20.1
28.3 29.1
20.9
29.1
76.4
79.6
3.1 Sinhala
23.2 23.7
35.4
47.3
63.5
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
* Only 39% of the respondents say that the CFA has benefited the o

x
e three most important benefits of the CFA.*
thnic Breakdown
4.0
Other
57.1
59.3
75.7
Benefit to minority communities
Avoid division of the country
Feeling of security
Development 76.4
Freedom of movement 79.6
Ending of destruction
Ending of killing
Peaceful environment in the
63.5
country
60 80 100
CFA has benefited the ordinary citizen.
06
Page 27

Page 30
5228
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the Government's commitment
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks in
29th October 2006)
3.4
Muslim
17.2
5 27.6
5.0 5.0 Up-Country Tamil
35.0
7.7 2.6 Sinhala
6.3
40.7
42.8
0 20 40
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in Gen
October 2006)
3.7
14.8 Muslim
18.5
8.1 1.9
48.5
0 20 %
40
5 11.1
4.0
16.0 Up-Country Tamil
44.0 32.0 4.0
Sinhala
9.0
32.4

x
vernment's commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
efore Peace Talks in Geneva (28th &
th October 2006)
42.8
No opinion
51.7
Not satisfied at all 27.6
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
35.0
Very satisfied
40.7
40 60 %
r Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
ctober 2006)
48.5
55.0
No opinion
51.9
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied 44.0 32.0
32.4
%
40 60
06
Page 28

Page 31
5229
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How satisfied are you with the LTTE’s commitment to the
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks in
29th October 2006)
3.6
21.4 Muslim
39.3
10.5
7.8
59.7
0 20 40 60
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in G
29th October 2006)
0.9
32.1 3.6
5.3 5.3 Up-Country Tamil
21.1
57.9
Sinhala
30.6 1.9
7.4
33.3 Muslim
33.3 22.2 3.7
7.7 Up-Country Tamil
11.5
19.2
7.5
64.6 26.0 1.0
0 20 40 60
%
50.0 11.5
Sinhala

x
TE’s commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement?
efore Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 9th October 2006)
39.3
57.9
59.7
40 60 80
%
No opinion .1
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
fter Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & h October 2006)
50.0
64.6
60 80
No opinion
Not satisfied at all
Not satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Very satisfied
06
Page 29

Page 32
5230
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Some people say that the CFA still stands while the others
Ethnic Breakdown
26.8
Muslim
28.6
25.9
25.5
0 20 40 60 80
%
44.6
15.9 Up-Country Tamil
48.6
68.2
15.9
Sinhala

x
l stands while the others say it does not. What do you think?
nic Breakdown
44.6
48.6
Don't know /Not sure
CFA does not stand anymore
CFA still stands
68.2
60 80
06
Page 30

Page 33
5231
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission What is your opinion on the need of a monitoring mission?
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
11.5
12.8
42.3
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
53.3
48.3
42.3
8
2.3 Up-Country Tamil
4.5
Sinhala
44.8
0 20 40 60 80
100%
13.7 12.0 12.8
9.5 4.3 2.3 2.6
4.5 90%
80%
70%
32.9
60%
0%
May '06
39.7
44.8
%
50%
90.5
95.7 93.2
97.4
40%
30%
20%
10%
July '06
Nov '06
May '06
July '06
Nov '06
May '06
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
n
of a monitoring mission?
thnic Breakdown
.3
88.5
93.2
4.8
60 80 100
06
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential
Is essential
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and uslim communities
4.3 2.3 2.6 2.9 95.7 93.2
July '06
4.5
8.8
11.5
Don't know /Not sure
Not essential
Is essential
97.4
88.2 88.5
Nov '06
May '06
July '06
Nov '06
-Country Tamil Muslim
Page 31

Page 34
5232
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is impartial agreement.
Ethnic Breakdown
12.1
25.0
Muslim
23.1
28.1
0 20 40 60
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, Up
Muslim communities
14.3 14.1 12.1
51.9
17.1
Up-Country Tamil
12.2
Sinhala
59
100%
90%
16.7
39.1
May '06
17.1
28.9
2
80%
0%
27.6 30.0 28.1
11.1
4.3
12.2 70%
21.1
2
%
60%
50%
40%
58.1 55.9 59.8
72.2
56.5
70.7 30%
20%
50.0
5
10%
July '06
Nov '06
May '06
July '06
Nov '06
May '06
J
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil Mu

x
g Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire
Ethnic Breakdown
0
70.7
40 60 80
%
Don't know / Not sure
Disagree
Agree
ngst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and uslim communities
56.5
51.9
8.1
59.8
39.1
17.1
28.9
20.6
25.0
July '06
12.2
21.1
Don't know / Not sure
4.3
23.5
23.1
Disagree
Agree
70.7
50.0
55.9
51.9
Nov '06
May '06
July '06
Nov '06
untry Tamil Muslim
06
Page 32

Page 35
5233
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is effective in its m
Ethnic Breakdown
11.3
23.1
Muslim
30.8
29.1
0 20 40 60
%
Changes of opinion amongst the Sinhala, U
Muslim communities
13.2 15.2
11.3
46.2
19.5 Up-Country Tamil
26.8
53.7
Sinhala
59.6
100%
90%
80%
30.7
34.3
29.1
20.0
43.5
19.5
29
70%
60%
30.0
4.3
0%
May '06
26.8 %
24 50%
40%
56.1 50.6 59.6
30%
20%
50.0
52.2 53.7
45
10%
July '06
Nov '06
May '06
July '06
Nov '06
Ma '0
Sinhala Up-Country Tamil

x
ission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.
thnic Breakdown
53.7
Don't know / Not sure
Disagree
Agree
ongst the Sinhala, Up-Country Tamil and uslim communities
0.0
46.2
59.6
0 60 80
0.0
19.5
29.7
17.1
23.1
43.5
ay 6
Don't know / Not sure
0.0
4.3
26.8
24.3
28.6
30.8
Disagree
Agree
52.2 53.7
45.9
54.3
46.2
July '06
Nov '06
May '06
July '06
Nov '06
p-Country Tamil Muslim
06
Page 33

Page 36
5234
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Foreign Involvement What is your opinion on the need for an internationa negotiations, to solve the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka?
Ethnic Breakdown
10.4 6.5
Muslim
1.3 1.3
3.9
17.3 13.3 9.8 5.6
32.9
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
76.6
11.0
Up-Country
2.4
Tamils
2.4
4.9
21.1
79.3
Sinhala

x
eed for an international third party as a facilitator to the
nflict in Sri Lanka?
thnic Breakdown
79.3
Don't know /Not sure
76.6
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
60 80 100
06
Page 34

Page 37
5235
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The Norwegian government has been officially facilitating p 2001. Please tell me your level of satisfaction with the Norw
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks in G
29th October 2006)
0.6
17.9
Muslim
17.9
25.9
0 20 40
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in Genev
October 2006)
2.8
41.0
11.1
23.1
19.4
Up-country Tamils
20.3
41.7 27.8
Sinhala
16.2
Muslim
21.6
29.4
0 20 40
%
32.4 29.7
15.6
Up-country Tamils
15.6
5 17.7
40.0 28.9
Sinhala

x
een officially facilitating peace negotiations since November atisfaction with the Norwegian role as facilitator.
Before Peace Talks in Geneva (28th &
29th October 2006)
27.8
Don't know/Not sure
Not satisfied at all
Some what satisfied
Very satisfied
ter Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
28.9
41.0
.1
41.7
25.9
53.2
40 60
%
Don't know/Not sure
29.7
32.4
Not satisfied at all
Some what satisfied
Very satisfied
40.0
29.4
50.1
40 60 %
06
Page 35

Page 38
5236
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state if you approve or disapprove of Norway contin
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace Talks in G
October 2006)
3.2
Muslim
6.5
10.5
25.8
64.5
6.9
Up-country
3.4 Tamils
20.7
5.2
66.9 17.5
0 20 40 60 8 %
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace Talks in Ge
October 2006)
16.9
69.0
Sinhala
3.1
Muslim
9.4
25.0
62.5
2.6 Up-country Tamils
28.9
2.3
66.2 14.6
0 20 40 60
%
68.4
Sinhala

x
pprove of Norway continuing to facilitate the peace process.
fore Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
69.0
Refuse to answ er
Disapprove 64.5
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
66.9
60 80
er Peace Talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
68.4
Refuse to answ er
Disapprove 62.5
Neither approve nor disapprove
Approve
66.2
60 80
06
Page 36

Page 39
5237
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Please state the most suitable country that should play process.
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
13.7
19.2
6.8
27.4
19.2
13.7
4.8 Up-country Tamils
6.0
21.7
49.4
18.1
Sinhala
5.4
3.9
21.2
19.4
41.2
8.9
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1

x
untry that should play the role of facilitator in the peace
hnic Breakdown
4
19.2
13.7
9.4
41.2
8.9
60% 80% 100%
Japan
Norw ay
United States of America
18.1
India
No opinion
Other Country
06
Page 37

Page 40
5238
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What is your opinion of the need for India's involvement in
Ethnic Breakdown
16.0 6.7
Muslim
2.7
17.3
4.0
22.7 14.1 10.0 3.6
26.2
0 20 40 60
%
53.3
8.8 3.8 Up-country
1.3 Tamils
2.5
10.0
23.4
7
Sinhala

x
for India's involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process?
Ethnic Breakdown
73.8
Don't know /Not sure
53.3
Not needed at all
Will have a negative impact
No impact
Not essential but w ill have a positive impact
Is essential and w ill have a positive impact
60 80
06
Page 38

Page 41
5239
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Peace Talks Why do you think the Government is willing to start talks?
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace talks in
October 2006)
20 3.3 Muslim
10
16.7
50
11.5
Up-Country Tamil
7.7 3.8
57.7 19.2
8.9 6.7 Sinhala
3
14.9
66.4
0 20 40 60 8 %
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace talks in Ge
October 2006)
13.3
Muslim
13.3 13.3
2.4 1.5
73
0 20 40 60
%
60
15.4
Up-Country Tamil
12.1
38.5
46.2
10.8
Sinhala

x
t is willing to start talks?
efore Peace talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
66.4
Don't know /Not sure
Other 50
Because the Government w ants to buy more time
Because of the international
57.7
pressure
Commitment to the peace process
60 80
ter Peace talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
73.1
Don't know /Not sure
Other 60
Because the Government w ants to buy more time
Because of the international
.5
pressure
46.2
Commitment to the peace process
60 80
06
Page 39

Page 42
5240
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Why do you think the LTTE is willing to start talks?
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace talks in G
October 2006)
2
25 3.6 Muslim
17.9
23.1 10.3
0 20 %
40
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace talks in Ge
October 2006)
0.7
25
28.6
15.4
Up-Country Tamil
3.8 3.8
40.1 24.5
34.6
42.3
Sinhala
13.3 6.7 Muslim
20 20
40
14.3
Up-Country Tamil
22.3 8.4
39.3 29.3
0 20 40 6
%
35.7
50
Sinhala

x
ling to start talks?
efore Peace talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
42.3
Don't know /Not sure
Other
.6
Because the LTTE w ants to buy more time
Because of the international pressure 34.6
Commitment to the peace process
40.1
40 60
fter Peace talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
50
Don't know /Not sure
40
Other
Because the LTTE w ants to buy more time Because of the international pressure Commitment to the peace process
.3
35.7
39.3
40 60
06
Page 40

Page 43
5241
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How sincere do you think is the Government in going for p
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace talks in G
October 2006)
14.3
Muslim
7.1
9.6
63
0 20 40 60
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace talks in Ge
October 2006)
20
20.4
46.4
2.7
32.1
24
29.2
Up-Country Tamil
12.5
58.3
Sinhala
13.3
Muslim
20
11
0 20 40 60
%
46.7
1.8
26.7
Up-Country Tamil
26.7
46.7
Sinhala

x
overnment in going for peace talks?
fore Peace talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
46.4
.2
63.8
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure 2.1
Not Sincere at all
Somew hat Sincere
58.3
Very Sincere
er Peace talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
46.7
66.8
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
Not Sincere at all
Somew hat Sincere
Very Sincere 46.7
06
Page 41

Page 44
5242
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
How sincere do you think is the LTTE in going for peace ta
Ethnic Breakdown - Before Peace talks in G
October 2006)
21.4
Muslim
28.6
20
16.7
0 20 40 60 8
%
Ethnic Breakdown - After Peace talks in G
October 2006)
13.3
3.8
46.4 3.6
8
4.6
24
Up-Country Tamil
48
Sinhala
20
Muslim
33.3
46.7
33.3
Up-Country Tamil
13.3
40
17.4
Sinhala
78.7
0 20 40 60 80
%

x
TTE in going for peace talks?
fore Peace talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
48
Don't know /Not sure 46.4
Not Sincere at all
Somew hat Sincere
Very Sincere
78.7
60 80 100
%
fter Peace talks in Geneva (28th & 29th
October 2006)
46.7
78.7
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Not Sincere at all
Somew hat Sincere
Very Sincere
06
Page 42

Page 45
5243
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What do you think the talks between the Government and
Ethnic Breakdown
24.6
44.8 Muslim
17.2 13.8
24.1
28 Up-Country Tamil
28 12
8.1
31.1 26.8 9.5
0 20 40
%
32
Sinhala

x
een the Government and the LTTE should be about?
thnic Breakdown
.6
44.8
40 60
%
Other
1
Don't know /Not sure
Both 28
Amending the Ceasefire 28
Core political issues
32
31.1 6.8
06
Page 43

Page 46
5244
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Do you think there should be a separate Muslim represent
Ethnic Breakdown
3.4
Muslim
3.4
32
Up-Country Tamil
24
44
25.3
Sinhala
18.7
56
0 20 40 60 80
%

x
parate Muslim representation at the peace talks?
thnic Breakdown
56
93.1
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
No
Yes 44
06
Page 44

Page 47
5245
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Situation In The North & East Do you think the people in the north and east are getting a
Ethnic Breakdown
30.8
Muslim
21.5
37.3
41.1
0 20 40 60
%
47.7
25.3
Up-Country Tamil
58.2
16.5
Sinhala
21.6

x
st
rth and east are getting adequate food and medical supplies?
Ethnic Breakdown
41.1
47.7
Don't know /Not sure
No
Yes
58.2
37.3
40 60 80
%
06
Page 45

Page 48
5246
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Do you think the people responsible are doing enough to and medicine?
Ethnic Breakdown
15
45.5
Muslim
25.8
28.8
20
Up-Country Tamil
20.6
Sinhala
11.9
0 20 40 60
%

x
ible are doing enough to ensure the adequate supply of food
thnic Breakdown
45.5
67.5
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
.8
No
Yes
65
06
Page 46

Page 49
5247
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Karuna Group Recent news reports indicate that Karuna has shown will Do you think it’s important to have Karuna faction represe
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
19.5
8.5
36.2
0 20 40
%
32.5
Up-Country Tamil
36.6
Sinhala
16

x
t Karuna has shown willingness to participate in future talks. e Karuna faction representation in future talks?
Ethnic Breakdown
48.1
47.8
40 60
%
32.5
Don't know /Not sure
It is not important
It is important
36.6
36.2
54.9
06
Page 47

Page 50
5248
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The LTTE alleges the Government of assisting the Karuna denying this. Do you think,
Ethnic Breakdown
3.8
61 3.9
Muslim
1.3
16.9 3.9
13
58 23.2 0.4
5.9
8.7
0 20 40 60
%
57.5
Up-Country Tamil
10
13.8
18.8
Sinhala

x
t of assisting the Karuna group. However the Government is
Ethnic Breakdown
58
Don't know /Not sure 61
The Government and the Karuna group have no relationship.
57.5
Actively trying to prevent the Karuna group from conducting military operations in Government controlled areas.
The Government is not assisting the Karuna group but allow ing them to operate freely in Government controlled areas. The Government is assisting the Karuna group.
The Government is assisting the Karuna group and carry out joint military operations w ith them.
60 80
06
Page 48

Page 51
5249
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
UNP & The Government On the 05th of October 2006, the UNP and the SLFP reach approach to address the key national issues and ag Understanding (MOU) soon.
In your opinion what kind of impact will this consensus hav
Ethnic Breakdown
25
Muslim
3.9
5.3
13.8 3.7
78.7
0 20 40 60 80
%
65.8
3.7
24.4
Up-Country Tamil
4.9
6.1
64.6
Sinhala

x
UNP and the SLFP reached a consensus on having a common national issues and agreed to sign a Memorandum of
ct will this consensus have on the peace process?
Ethnic Breakdown
78.7
Don't Know /Not sure
65.8
No impact
Negative impact
Positive impact
60 80 100
%
64.6
06
Page 49

Page 52
5250
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
On the 05th of October 2006, the UNP and the SLFP reach approach to address the key national issues and ag Understanding (MOU) soon.
In your opinion what kind of impact will this consensus hav
Ethnic Breakdown
57.3
4.3
25
Muslim
2.6
5.3
28
Up-Country Tamil
6.1
8.5
21.4
Sinhala
2.8
0 20 40 60
%

x
UNP and the SLFP reached a consensus on having a common national issues and agreed to sign a Memorandum of
ct will this consensus have on the country at large?
hnic Breakdown
71.5
Don't know /Not sure
67.1
No impact
Negative impact
Positive impact
40 60 80
%
57.3
06
Page 50

Page 53
5251
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The JVP and The Government The JVP Politburo claims that the government agreeing to u violation of the mandate given to the president by the peop
Do you agree or disagree with this claim?
Ethnic Breakdown
22.9
48
Muslim
35.5
15.8
48.
28.6
0 20 40
%
49
Up-Country Tamil
25.3
25.3
Sinhala

x
nt
government agreeing to unconditional talks with the LTTE is a he president by the people at the last presidential elections.
s claim?
thnic Breakdown
.3
28.6
48.7
40 60
%
35.5
48.5
Don't know / Not sure
Disagree
49.4
Agree
.3
06
Page 51

Page 54
5252
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
What impact will the collapse of talks between the Go political alliance have on the country at large?
*
Ethnic Breakdown
7.4
Muslim
11.1
20.7
9.8
0 20 40
%
* Only 41.8% of the respondents are aware of the collapse of ta forming a political alliance
29.6
3.7
Up-Country Tamil
14.8
37
20.7
44.
Sinhala

x
f talks between the Government and the JVP in forming a ry at large?
*
thnic Breakdown
44.4
51.9 29.6
48.7
40 60
%
Don't know /Not sure
No impact
Negative impact
37
Positive impact
re of the collapse of talks between the Government and the JVP in
06
Page 52

Page 55
5253
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
In the twenty points put forward by the JVP, they wanted t remove Norway from the peace facilitator role, de-merger of the Cabinet to 30 members.
Please tell me whether you support, oppose or have no op
Abrogating the CFA
Ethnic Breakdown
26.3
Muslim
3.9
36.7
Up-Country Tamil
29.2
27
0 20 40 60
%
59.
3.8
43.8
Sinhala

x
y the JVP, they wanted the government to abrogate the CFA, acilitator role, de-merger of the North-East and the reduction
t, oppose or have no opinion on these statements.
Ethnic Breakdown
2
69.7
43.8
No Opinion
36.7
Oppose
Support
40 60 80
%
59.5
06
Page 53

Page 56
5254
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
In the twenty points put forward by the JVP, they wanted t remove Norway from the peace facilitator role, de-merger of the Cabinet to 30 members.
Please tell me whether you support, oppose or have no op
Removing Norway from peace facilitator role
Ethnic Breakdown
28
Muslim
46.9
0 20 40 60
%
58.7
13.3
40.3
12.9
38.8
Up-Country Tamil
57.5
3.8
Sinhala

x
y the JVP, they wanted the government to abrogate the CFA, acilitator role, de-merger of the North-East and the reduction
t, oppose or have no opinion on these statements.
ilitator role
Breakdown
46.9
58.7
40.3
No Opinion
Oppose
38.8
Support 57.5
0 60 80
06
Page 54

Page 57
5255
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
In the twenty points put forward by the JVP, they wanted t remove Norway from the peace facilitator role, de-merger of the Cabinet to 30 members.
Please tell me whether you support, oppose or have no op
De-merger of the North-East
Ethnic Breakdown
26.7
Muslim
57.3
16
48.6
22.8
28.6
0 20 40 60
%
48.7
Up-Country Tamil
48.7
2.6
Sinhala

x
y the JVP, they wanted the government to abrogate the CFA, acilitator role, de-merger of the North-East and the reduction
t, oppose or have no opinion on these statements.
ic Breakdown
48.7
57.3
48.6
No Opinion
Oppose
48.7
Support
40 60 80
%
06
Page 55

Page 58
5256
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
In the twenty points put forward by the JVP, they wanted t remove Norway from the peace facilitator role, de-merger of the Cabinet to 30 members.
Please tell me whether you support, oppose or have no op
Reduction of cabinet to 30 members
Ethnic Breakdown
28
Muslim
30
0 20 40 60
%
42.7
29.3
32.4
5.3
43.8
Up-Country Tamil
26.3
Sinhala

x
y the JVP, they wanted the government to abrogate the CFA, acilitator role, de-merger of the North-East and the reduction
t, oppose or have no opinion on these statements.
rs
nic Breakdown
42.7
3
No Opinion
Oppose
43.8
Support
2.4
62.3
40 60 80
%
06
Page 56

Page 59
5257
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Supreme Court Ruling on De-Merger of North and E What would be the impact of the Supreme Court ruling merger of North and East is invalid, on the peace process?
Ethnic Breakdown
13.8
Muslim
3.4
26.4
39
0 20 40 60 80
%
* Only 37% of the respondents are aware of the Supreme Court ru of North and East is invalid
51.7
16.2
31
10.3
Up-Country Tamil
3.4
3.4
Sinhala
18.4

x
e-Merger of North and East
e Supreme Court ruling on the 16th of October 2006, that
, on the peace process?*
thnic Breakdown
82.8 51.7
Don't know /Not sure
No impact
Negative impact
Positive impact
60 80 100
%
f the Supreme Court ruling on the 16th of October 2006, that merger
06
Page 57

Page 60
5258
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Human Rights Abuses Who do you think has the responsibility for the protection
Ethnic Breakdown
35.5 5.3 4.1 Muslim
2
7.7 1.3
27.4 9.4
11 2.5
4.4
62.1
0 20 40 60
%
62.2
10
18.7 18.9 7.3 Up-Country Tamil
11.3 10.1 6.5
Sinhala

x
sibility for the protection of human rights?
Ethnic Breakdown
5.5
62.1
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
Security forces
62.2
Civil Society
International community
The Parliament
The LTTE
Government of Sri Lanka 72.1
06
Page 58

Page 61
5259
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Do you think the actor responsible for protecting human r human rights?
Ethnic Breakdown
18.8
Muslim
37.5
43.8
16.7
Up-Country Tamil
77.
6.1
24.7
Sinhala
20.5
54.7
0 20 40 60 80
%

x
e for protecting human rights has done enough to protect
Ethnic Breakdown
5
54.7
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure 43.8
No
Yes
77.3
06
Page 59

Page 62
5260
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
The President called for an international commission to disappearances and abductions in Sri Lanka. Subsequently commission to investigate the killings with an international
Do you think the Government should call for,
Ethnic Breakdown
6.6
28.6 1.4 Muslim
12.9 12.9
51.6 5.2
13.8
0 20 40
%
44.3
22.8
53.2
Up-Country
1.3
Tamil
3.9
22.1
19.5
Sinhala

x
rnational commission to investigate into the recent killings, Sri Lanka. Subsequently the president called for a national gs with an international panel of observers.
uld call for,
hnic Breakdown
6
44.3
51.6
40 60
No opinion
No need for any commission
53.2
A national commission w ith international observers
A national Commission
An international Commission of investigation
06
Page 60

Page 63
5261
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Recent Fighting In Muhamalei There have been media reports which indicate that the Sri to battle in Muhamalei without the knowledge of the politic not?*
Ethnic Breakdown
9.6
19.4
Muslim
25.8
38.6
0 20 40 60
%
† “Muhamalai debacle: The shocking story” by Iqbal Athas – The Sun “SLFP-UNP talks: The drama behind the drama” by The Sunday Ti “Enemy No 1 far from dead – II” – Editorial, 16th October 2006
Divaina – Editorial, 16th October 2006 *
Only 65% of the respondents are aware of the recent encounter b Muhamalei.
54.8
51.8
58.8
Up-Country Tamil
17.6
23.5
Sinhala

x
ei
hich indicate that the Sri Lankan armed forces are committed knowledge of the political leadership.† Do you believe this or
thnic Breakdown
54.8
51.8
Don't know /Not sure
No, I don't believe it
58.8
Yes, I believe it
38.6
40 60 80
%
by Iqbal Athas – The Sunday Times, 15th October 2006 (Sunday) rama” by The Sunday Times Political Editor, 15th October 2006 ial, 16th October 2006
f the recent encounter between the security forces and the LTTE in
06
Page 61

Page 64
5262
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
If you believe it, do you approve or disapprove it?*
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
64.7
35.3
Up-Country Tamil
14.3
6.8
Sinhala
56.8
36.4
0 20 40 60 80
%
* Only 11.4% of the respondents believe the media reports which ind committed to battle in Muhamalei without the knowledge of the poli

x
r disapprove it?*
thnic Breakdown
3
56.8
.4
06
64.7
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure
Disapprove
Approve
85.7
media reports which indicate that the Sri Lankan armed forces are he knowledge of the political leadership.
Page 62

Page 65
5263
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Recent Killings Some people say that the recent confrontation with the L civilian killings. Do you believe this statement?
Ethnic Breakdown
46.7
Muslim
5.3
48
13.8
Up-Country Tamil
3.8
28.8
27.9
43.3
0 20 40 60 80
%
82
Sinhala

x
confrontation with the LTTE has resulted in large number of
statement?
ic Breakdown
46.7
.3
60 80 100
%
Don't know /Not sure 48
I don't believe it
I believe it
82.5
06
Page 63

Page 66
5264
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Reportedly in Colombo there have been a number of abdu think is responsible for these abductions?
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
9.2
11.8
7.9
39
Up-Country Tamil
1.2 1.2
54.3 2
41.5 2.2
0 20 40 60
%
58.5
Sinhala

x
e been a number of abductions of Tamil civilians. Who do you ctions?
thnic Breakdown
58.5
41.5
71.1
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
Other
39
The LTTE
The Government forces
54.3
06
Page 64

Page 67
5265
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Recently 17 bodies of Aid workers were found in Mutur of Mutur from the LTTE. Who do you think is responsible
Ethnic Breakdown
Muslim
18.7 17.3
53.1
Up-Country Tamil
1.2
1.2
39.3 0.4
59.2 1.1
0 20 40 60
%
44.4
Sinhala

x
rs were found in Mutur following the Government recapture
you think is responsible for these killings?
Ethnic Breakdown
64
44.4
59.2
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
Other
53.1
The LTTE
The Government forces
39.3
06
Page 65

Page 68
5266
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Recently 10 Muslims were killed in Pottvil. Who do you thi
Ethnic Breakdown
0.9
56
Muslim
18.7
25.3
61
Up-Country Tamil
1.2
4.9
32.9
33
Sinhala
0.9
65
0 20 40 60
%

x
Pottvil. Who do you think is responsible for these killings?
thnic Breakdown
56
2.9
65.2
40 60 80
%
Don't know /Not sure
Other
61
The LTTE
The Government forces
3
06
Page 66

Page 69
5267
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Current Security Condition Compared to the situation a year ago, do you think the improved or worsened?
Ethnic Breakdown
2.6
7.9
Muslim
22.4
26.3
3.7
7.1
36
4.8
0 20 40 60
%
40.8
4.8
22.9
Up-Country Tamil
4.8
6
3.6
Sinhala
18.7
29.7

x
ago, do you think the security situation in the country has
Ethnic Breakdown
.7
Don't know /Not sure
40.8
It has turned very bad
It has turned bad
Remains the same
It has somew hat improved
It has improved a lot
36
63.9
40 60 80
%
06
Page 67

Page 70
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Annex
District sample (unweighted) distribution in November
DISTRICT TOT Colombo 16 Gampaha 60 Kalutara 90 Kandy 18 Matale 19 Nuwara Eliya 12 Galle 60 Matara 60 Hambantota 60 Kurunegala 10 Puttalam 10 Anuradhapura 60 Polonnaruwa 60 Badulla 12 Monaragala 60 Ratnapura 60 Kegalle 60 NATIONAL 160
Ethnic sample (unweighted) distribution in November 2
ETHNICITY TOT Sinhala 98 Muslim 32 Up-Country Tamil 30 NATIONAL 160

ex
Annex
istribution in November 2006
TOTAL 160 60 90 180 190 120 60 60 60 100 100 60 60 120 60 60 60 1600
tribution in November 2006
Y TOTAL
980 320 300 1600
r 2006
i

Page 71
Copyright © Social Indicator November 2006
Peace Confidence Index Top-line Results
Sampling Methodology
Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) s in public confidence levels towards the peace process ove be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the February 2004, PCI was conducted bi-monthly, howeve decided to conduct the study quarterly to make the PCI mo
The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire t approximately 1800 respondents during each phase of the capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of te undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace pro factors, the ethnic factor, which is the most important and i been accommodated in this model.
The total sample is distributed amongst 17 administrat excluding the North and East provinces due to the escala to the survey. The sample size assigned to each strat population proportions. However, some districts are o heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated
A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a distr of that particular ethnicity exceeds 9%. A Divisional Se primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sam Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected random using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 199 Census and Statistics as the sample frame.
To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensure a m within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a max GND. Within a given GND, the enumerator is advised to s proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand the random selection of households.
In the case of urban areas, the interviewer is instructed t households, thus resulting in the interview-taking place at final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the ho ensuring that each member of the household has an equ PCI sample.
The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model do analysis at the same level of precision.

ex
nfidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations the peace process over time it is essential that the study al pauses during the study. Hence, from May 2001 to d bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI rly to make the PCI more efficient.
uctured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of ring each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to ty within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is ion on the peace process is influenced by a number of e most important and influential, is the sole factor that has
ongst 17 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, ces due to the escalation of violence in the months prior ssigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.
r ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion 9%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit ons of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of
frame.
work and ensure a maximum dispersion of the sample ed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a merator is advised to select a starting point randomly and ndom walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure .
rviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the erview-taking place at every alternative household. As the is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus household has an equal chance of being selected to the
subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. hat the PCI model does not support the regional level on.
r 2006
ii

Page 72
Social Indicator (SI) is an inde
which conducts polls on socio-e
Operating under the Board of Di
Policy Alternatives (CPA), Slwa
and filled a longstanding vacuur
professional and independent p
Social and political issues.
Polling is an instrument of empC
the silent majority of the public (
opinions on issues affecting the
surveys on key Social issues, th
which public opinion can influen
Social Ind
Centre foi ـــــــــــــــــــــــــ
105, 5th L
Colombo
Sri Lanka Makina Social Research Cowati
Tel +941
Fax +941
 

pendent social research organisation,
2conomic and political issues.
rectors of the Centre for
is established in September 1999,
n for a permanent,
olling facility in Sri Lanka on
Werment, a means by which
an express their
m. Our mission is to Conduct
ereby providing a means through
ce the public policy debate.
licator
Policy Alternatives ..ane,
3,
2370472 Email: Cpapoll(Odiamond.lanka.net 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org