Page 1
PERSPECTIVES ON PEA FROM JAFFNA
SOCIAL IND
DE
© Social Indicator, October 2

RSPECTIVES ON PEACE OM JAFFNA
SOCIAL INDICATOR DECEMBER 2002
ocial Indicator, October 2002

Page 2
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
PERSPECTIVES FROM JAFFNA ON T
PROCESS AND ISSUES OF CON
I
NTRODUCTION
Social Indicator (SI) carried out its Study of Public Perceptions in the Jaffna peninsular for the third time in 2002. SI is an independent research organization, operating under the Board of Directors of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA).
While capturing the views and beliefs of people on the peace process, this study also reaches out to cover issues such as the cost of living, education and health.
The survey carried out between 10 – 14 December 2002 in the Jaffna, Nallur,
Valikam Thenm questio to-face 320 res
Financ provid Develo the Streng Univer
EXECUTIVE SUMMA
During the last two months people’s dissatisfac over employment opportunities. However, p humanitarian assistance and Government loan sc For over 60% of the people peace means “eth compared to October 2002 there is an increa “freedom” for the people. The opinion that war means “death and destr December 2002, while there is a decrease in opin rights” from October 2002 to December 2002. An overwhelming majority believes in peace ta Lanka, though there is a decline from October 2 December 2002). The opinion that neither party can achieve to sharp increase to 62.2% in December 2002 from Over 61% feel that all the ethnic communitie since October 2002.
© Social Indicator, December 2002

1 Jaffna
FROM JAFFNA ON THE PEACE ND ISSUES OF CONCERN
ut its Study the Jaffna in 2002. SI rganization, f Directors Alternatives
d beliefs of , this study ues such as
d health.
en 10 – 14 na, Nallur,
Valikamam, Vadamarachchi and Thenmarachchi areas, used a structured questionnaire, administered through face- to-face interviews amongst a sample of 320 respondents.
Financial assistance for the survey was provided by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) through the Governance and Institutional Strengthening Project (GISP) of the University of Ottawa.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
onths people’s dissatisfaction has changed to satisfaction portunities. However, people are still dissatisfied with e and Government loan schemes. people peace means “ethnic harmony”. However, when r 2002 there is an increase in opinion that peace means
ple.
means “death and destruction” continues to increase in there is a decrease in opinion that war means “fighting for 2002 to December 2002. jority believes in peace talks as a means to end war in Sri a decline from October 2002. (91% October 2002, 82.2%
her party can achieve total victory through war shows a
in December 2002 from 47.4% in October 2002. ll the ethnic communities can live together - an increase

Page 3
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
The opinion that an international third party’s the North East war in Sri Lanka continues to inc Reversing the declining trend of October 2002, in the Sri Lankan peace process. Over 84% exp continued assistance in the Sri Lankan peace pro There is an increase in opinion that Indian invo process is essential (23.8% in October 2002 to 3 There is a gradual increase from July 2002 to De ceasefire will last long. However 50.9% express The declining satisfaction with Norway’s role October 2002 has reversed dramatically in De 39% October 2002, 83.1% December 2002). People who are aware of the SLMM’s involv ceasefire overwhelmingly agree that such a moni CFA to succeed. Belief in SLMM’s impartiality and effectiven turning around the declining trend in October 20 Over 88% of the people are aware of the 20 Velupillai Prabhakaran; 70.9% believe that it w on going peace process. An overwhelming majority (80.3%) is of the be made by the LTTE leader will have a positive im Of the 60% who are aware of the 2nd round o believes that the sub-committee on the Rehabilitation Needs in the North and East shou Over 73% express their satisfaction with the ou talks. While 62.5% of the people believe that the G treating the return of IDP’s as priority in the p the LTTE is committed. Over 67.8% say that HSZ are an impediment to Of the people who are aware of the meeting 70.5% believe that it will have a positive impact
© Social Indicator, December 2002

2 Jaffna
nternational third party’s involvement is essential to solve Sri Lanka continues to increase (78.8% December 2002). g trend of October 2002, people hail Norwegian assistance ce process. Over 84% express their support for Norway’s
the Sri Lankan peace process. opinion that Indian involvement in the Sri Lankan peace .8% in October 2002 to 30.3% in December 2002). ease from July 2002 to December 2002 in opinion that the
However 50.9% express their uncertainty. ction with Norway’s role in the ceasefire agreement in ersed dramatically in December 2002 (47.8% July 2002, .1% December 2002). e of the SLMM’s involvement in the monitoring of the gly agree that such a monitoring mission is essential for the
partiality and effectiveness has significantly increased, clining trend in October 2002. ople are aware of the 200 year sentence passed on Mr. ; 70.9% believe that it will have a negative impact on the s. jority (80.3%) is of the belief that the Heroes’ Day speech
der will have a positive impact on the peace process. aware of the 2nd round of peace talks in Thailand, 51.1% ub-committee on the Immediate Humanitarian and n the North and East should be given priority. ir satisfaction with the outcome of the 2nd round of peace
eople believe that the Government is not committed to IDP’s as priority in the peace process, 60.6% believe that d.
SZ are an impediment to the return of IDP’s. re aware of the meeting in Oslo on 25th November 02, ill have a positive impact on the people of the North.

Page 4
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
BURNING ISSUES AND SATISFACTION AVAILABLE FACILITIES AND SERVICES
Unemployment continues to be ranked as the issue of m the people of Jaffna in December 2002. The ethnic conflic downward trend since the first wave in July 2002 (33.8%) an While 11.6% of the people rank the cost of living as the m mining. As the graph depicts, in December 2002, 6.3% rank resettle them, while 2.2% of the people ranks education.
The most important
40
35
33.8
30
26.6
25
%
20
18.4
23.8
15
15.4
12.
10
7
5
5.7
2.3 0
5
4.3
1
July '02 Octobe
The Ethnic Conflict Unemplo
Education Resettlem
© Social Indicator, December 2002

3 Jaffna
ND SATISFACTION LEVELS REGARDING
AND SERVICES
ranked as the issue of most concern to a majority (21.6%) of 2002. The ethnic conflict as an issue of concern continues its ve in July 2002 (33.8%) and now stands at 18.1%. he cost of living as the most burning issue, for 8.1%, it is de-
r 2002, 6.3% rank resettlement as the issue of most concern to nks education.
The most important issues
26.6
23.8
21.6
18.1 12.4
11.6
5
8.1 6.3 4.3
1.5
2.2
October '02 December '02
Unemployment The Cost of Living
Resettlement De-mining

Page 5
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
Level of satisfaction with facilities
Availability of raw material for construction
0.12 0.4
0.64
Communication facilities
0.54 0.55
1
Electricity
1.0
1
Government loan schemes
-2.16 -2.1
-1.04
Housing
1. 1.
Availability of food
Humanitarian assistance
-1.33
-1.16
-0.23
Health
0.86 1
Transport
Education opportunities
1.
1
Employment opportunities
-0.32
-0.11
0.21
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
Average (10 poin
In December 2002, the level of satisfaction with the availab October 2002 at 2.9, though it is a considerable decline fro which the levels of satisfaction have shown a notable incre 2002, are employment opportunities (-0.32 to 0.21) and construction (0.12 to 0.64). While other facilities and servic and humanitarian assistance (-1.16) have notched up slight i health has dropped from 1.51 in October 2002 to 0.86 in De
© Social Indicator, December 2002

4 Jaffna
isfaction with facilities/services
0.12 0.4
0.64
0.54 0.55
1.65
-0.32
-0.11
1.04
1.66
2.85
2.16 -2.1
-1.04
1.31 1.39
1.91
2.9 2.9
0.21
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Average (10 point scale)
atisfaction with the availability of food remains stationary from a considerable decline from 4.14 in July 2002. The services for ve shown a notable increase in December 2002 from October ities (-0.32 to 0.21) and the availability of raw material for other facilities and services like education opportunities (1.68) ) have notched up slight increases, the level of satisfaction with
ctober 2002 to 0.86 in December 2002.
December '02
-1.33
-1.16
-0.23
4.14
October '02 July '02
0.86
1.51
2.97 2.36 2.41
3.8
1.42
1.68
2.3

Page 6
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
MEANING OF WAR AND PEACE
Peace means freedom for 43.1% of the people of Jaffna in risen considerably from 23.5% in October 2002. For a maj the perception that peace means ethnic harmony continue decline from October 2002 (67.8%). The belief that peace (13% in October 2002 to 18.8% in December 2002), while end of war has declined from 53.3% in October 2002 to 45.
What does 'peace' mean to you? [Multi
80
70
67.8
48.8
45
18 18.7
13 0
1.9
July '02 October '02 Decembe
The perception that war means death and destruction cont 2002 (65.9%) from July 2002 (50.7%), while the belief development shows a notable increase (14.6% in October The perception that war means fighting for rights has d 24.7% in December 2002.
60 60
53.3
50
%
40
4 29.8 30
23.5 23.4 20
10
4.3
9 8 0
What does 'war' mean to you? [Multiple
6
1
70
65.9 60
50.7
58.8 50
40
34.2 36.8 %
30
19.5
24.7
20
16.4
23.4
10
7.4 14.6
10.5
15 12.2
0
0
5.3
2.5
July '02 October '02 December '02
© Social Indicator, December 2002

5 Jaffna
PEACE
of the people of Jaffna in December 2002. This perception has October 2002. For a majority (60.3%) of the people of Jaffna, ethnic harmony continues in December 2002, though it is a ). The belief that peace means feeling safe has also increased in December 2002), while the perception that peace means the
% in October 2002 to 45.9% in December 2002.
e' mean to you? [Multiple Answers]
67.8
60.3 53.3
End of w ar
45.9
Ethnic harmony
Feeling safe
End of terrorism
13
18.8
Separate state
Freedom
1.9 1.3
eath and destruction continues its steady increase in December 0.7%), while the belief that it is a hindrance to economic crease (14.6% in October 2002 to 23.4% in December 2002). fighting for rights has decreased from 36.8% in October to
ean to you? [Multiple Answers]
15
2.5
43.1
3.5
9 8.4 ber '02 December '02
65.9
December '02
Means of achieving peace
Fighting for rights
Disharmony amongst races
24.7
23.4
Hindrance to economic development
Death/ Destruction 12.2
Terrorism

Page 7
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT
When will there be peace in
60
52.2
49.8
50
40
31.4
35
%
30
20
10
0
3.3 2
5
5.4
6.2
7.2
1.9
5.3
0.6
July '02 October '02 Decemb
In December 2002, as in the previous two waves, a majori will be peace in Sri Lanka. However, those that say there declined from 5.3% in October 2002 to 2.8% in December be achieved soon remains almost constant (35.6%).
How do you think we can end the war and have pea
in Sri Lanka ? [Multiple Answers]
100
90
89.3
91
80
82.2
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
0 10
2.3
2.2
3.8
July '02 October '02 December '02
© Social Indicator, December 2002

6 Jaffna
NFLICT
ill there be peace in Sri Lanka?
49.8
50
35
35.9
6.2
7.2
0.6 1.3 1.9
tober '02 December '02
ious two waves, a majority (50%) is unable to say when there ver, those that say there will never be peace in Sri Lanka has 002 to 2.8% in December 2002. The perception that peace will constant (35.6%).
Soon
Within the next 5yrs
Within the next 10yrs
Not in my life time
Never
Don't know
the war and have peace ltiple Answers]
3.8
2.8 9
5.3
A majority (82.2%) of the people continue to believe in that peace 82.2
talks is necessary to end the war and have peace in Sri Lanka, though it is a decline from October 2002 (91%).
December '02
LTTE defeating the Government
Peace talks

Page 8
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
In December 2002, a majority (59.1%) of the people believ war for the past 15 odd years as a result of corrupt military solution to the war attributed to the absence of political wi October 2002 to 18.1% in December 2002).
Why do you think there hasn't been a solutio [Multiple An
70
60
57.3
50
%
40
31.5
30
22.8
27.9
20
19.8
14.9 9.7 10
9.4
0
0.7 5.7 1.7
3
12.7 5
3.1 1.2
July '02 October '02
Can total victory be achieved by one of
parties in this war ?
70
62.2
60
48.8 50
47.4
%
40
30
27.8
11.4
30.3
20
17
20
10
15.9
0
July '02 October '02 December '
© Social Indicator, December 2002

7 Jaffna
.1%) of the people believes there hasn’t been a solution to the result of corrupt military and political leadership. The lack of a he absence of political will shows a notable decrease (27.9% in ber 2002).
hasn't been a solution to the war for the last 15 odd years ?
[Multiple Answers]
7.3
59.1
Corrupt military and political leaders
No political w ill
The strength of the LTTE
The strength of the Government
27.9
LTTE does not w ant peace
The Government does not w ant pea
19.8
18.1
War is necessary for people in pow
14.9
16.6
Don't know 14.7 12.7 5
3.1
1.2
8.8 3.4
1.9 1.6
ober '02 December '02
be achieved by one of the es in this war ?
62.2
In December 2002, a majority (62.2%) continues to feel that neither 0.3
party can achieve
20
total victory in this war. 15.9
'02 December '02
Yes
No
Not sure

Page 9
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
LEVEL OF TOLERANCE AND PLURALISM
Do you think all the ethnic communities can
80
71.2 70
58.5 60
50
%
40
30
27.2
2
20
14.4
10
8.7
5.4
8
6.2 0
July '02 October '02 Decem
A majority (61.3%) of the public is of the view that tha together. This is an increase from October 2002 (58.5%).
© Social Indicator, December 2002

8 Jaffna
AND PLURALISM
thnic communities can live together?
58.5 61.3
27.2
24.1
6.2
4.1
ic is of the view that that all ethnic communities can live
October 2002 (58.5%).
Yes
No
Never
Don't know
8
10
ober '02 December '02

Page 10
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
THE PEACE PROCESS AND INTERNATIONA INVOLVEMENT
The perception that third party involvement to solve the N continues to increase in December 2002 (78.8%) from Ju (73.1%).
Approval for Norwegian assistance in the Sri Lankan peace process while continuing to be high, shows a notable increase from October 2002 (74%) to December 2002 (87.8%).
What is your opinion of the need for an internatio involvement to solve the North East war in S
90
80
69.6
73.1
78.8
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
12.7
10
0
7 6.4
13.3
8.4 5
3.7
7.8 3.1
July '02 October '02 December '02
Please tell me i assisting i
100 90
81.9
80 70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10 0
5.7
7.7 3.3
July '02
© Social Indicator, December 2002

9 Jaffna
ND INTERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY
he need for an international third party's e the North East war in Sri Lanka ?
78.8
Is essential
Will add a positive impact
Is not essential
Don't know/Not sure
8.4
7
7.8 3.1
2 December '02
volvement to solve the North East war in Sri Lanka is essential er 2002 (78.8%) from July 2002 (69.6%) and October 2002
Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process ?
81.9
74
87.8
5.7 8.4 2.5 3.3 2.8
0.6
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
14.9
Don't know /Not sure 7.7
8.8
July '02 October '02 December '02

Page 11
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
Please tell me if you approve or disapprove continuing to assist in the Sri Lankan peac
90
84.1
80 70
62.8 60
%
50 40 30 20 10
15.5
15.5 3.4
6.2
1.9 0
Approve Neither
Disapprove Don't k approve nor
s disapprove
What is your opinion of the need for Indi Lanka peace proce
45 40
36.8
35
38.1
3
30
%
25 20
23.1
23.8
15 10
6.8
13.9
July '02 October '02 Decemb
As depicted in the graph above, while a majority (33.8%) o Indian involvement in the Sri Lanka peace process is not es October 2002. On the other hand, the perception that increased from 23.8% in October 2002 to 30.3% in Decemb
12 12 9
14.2 14
5
3.3 1.9 0
© Social Indicator, December 2002

10 Jaffna
pprove or disapprove of Norway the Sri Lankan peace process ?
6.2
hile a majority (33.8%) of the public continues to believe that ka peace process is not essential, it is a decrease from 38.1% in nd, the perception that Indian involvement is essential has 2002 to 30.3% in December 2002.
Norway’s continual assistance in the October '02
peace process is
15.5
10 1.9
December '02
endorsed by a majority of the public (84.1%) in December Disapprove Don't know /Not
2002and is an sure
increase from 62.8% in October 2002.
n of the need for India's involvement in the Sri
Lanka peace process ?
38.1
33.8
30.3
13.9
7.5
ber '02 December '02
Is essential
23.8
Will add a positive impac
Will have no impact
14.2 14.1
Will add a negative impac
Is not essential 11.6
Don't know /Not sure
1.9
2.2

Page 12
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT
What do you think of the longevity of the ceas
agreement ?
70
60
59.2
51.4 50
50.9
T w
%
40
25.1
32.8
39.7
T 30
w
20
15.5
D
13.7 10
9.1
0
July '02 October '02 December '02
The findings for December 2002 show a sharp increase in role in the ceasefire agreement from 39% in October 200 graph further indicates a significant decline in those who a October 2002 to 0% in December 2002.
Please state your level of satisfaction with ceasefire agreement.
90
80
8
70
60
%
50
40
47.8
39
30
35.1
35.3
20
16.1
0
4
1.9
July '02 October '02 December 10.7 11.9 10
3.7
0
© Social Indicator, December 2002

11 Jaffna
T
he longevity of the ceasefire In eement ?
show a sharp increase in those very satisfied with Norway’s rom 39% in October 2002 to 83.1% in December 2002. The nt decline in those who are somewhat satisfied from 35.3% in
2002.
December 2002 while a majority (50.9%) are unable to state if the ceasefire agreement will last, there is a steady
50.9
increase in the opinion that it will (39.7%). 39.7
This is an increase from 32.8% in October 2002.
9.1
ecember '02
The ceasefire agreement will last long
The ceasefire agreement will not last long
Don't know/Not sure
l of satisfaction with Norway's role in the easefire agreement.
83.1
9
1.9
0
Very satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
Neither satisfied nor
1
11.9
dissatisfied
Don't know /Not sure
r '02 December '02

Page 13
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
When asked to state their level of satisfaction with th agreement, a majority (46.9%) in December 2002 says the increase from October 2002 (38.1%). At the same time, th somewhat dissatisfied and very dissatisfied has declined fro to 2.8% and 1.3% in December 2002 respectively.
What is your level of satisfaction of the impl
ceasefire agreement ?
50
45
42.5
46.
40
38.1
35
39.1
30
24.8
28. %
25
20
15
13
8.4
5.9
0
3.7
5
1.3
July '02 October '02 December '0
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION (SLMM)
In December 2002, a majority (81.9%) is aware of the monitoring the ceasefire. 88.2% of those who are aware of believe that such a monitoring mission is essential for the C
If "Yes", what is your opinion of the need fo
the CFA to succe
87 88.9
5.9
3.4 2.2 1.5
14.
10
2
10.5
5
3.7
5.6
2.8
100
90
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
4
0
July '02 October '02 Decem
© Social Indicator, December 2002

12 Jaffna
l of satisfaction with the implementation of the ceasefire December 2002 says they are somewhat satisfied. This is an %). At the same time, the number of those who say they are issatisfied has declined from 10.5% and 5.6% in October 2002
02 respectively.
tisfaction of the implementation of the sefire agreement ?
46.9
Very satisfied
Somew hat satisfied
28.4
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
Somew hat dissatisfied
14.7
Very dissatisfied .5
5.9
Don't know /Not sure 2.8 1.3
2 December '02
G MISSION (SLMM)
81.9%) is aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in f those who are aware of the involvement of foreign monitors, ssion is essential for the CFA to succeed.
inion of the need for such a monitoring mission for
the CFA to succeed ?
88.9
88.2
3.4
1.5
4.6
Is essential
Will have a positive impact
Don't know /Not sure
4.9
ober '02 December '02

Page 14
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
A majority (63.7%) in December 2002, of those aware of th monitoring of the ceasefire agreement. This is a notable incr
Coinciding with the increase in the above graph, is those wh in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement (35.9% in O 2002).
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission monitoring of the ceasefire agr
70
60
57.2
63.7
50
45.8
40 %
30
22.7
22.9 19.1 20
10.7
16.7
8.8 10
8
13.3
8.4 0
July '02 October '02 December '02
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Miss
monitoring of the ceasefire
70
60
6
50
46.5
40
35.9 %
30
26.8
24.1
20
14.4
22 2
10
11.4
16.7
9 8
0
July '02 October '02 Decembe
© Social Indicator, December 2002

13 Jaffna
2002, of those aware of the SLMM believes it is impartial in its
ent. This is a notable increase from October 2002 (45.8%).
a Monitoring Mission is impartial in its
of the ceasefire agreement.
63.7
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree 19.1
Don't know /Not sure
8.8
8.4
02 December '02
e above graph, is those who believe that the SLMM is effective e agreement (35.9% in October 2002 to 60.7% in December
nka Monitoring Mission is effective in its ing of the ceasefire agreement.
60.7
21
8.4
Agree
.9
Neither agree nor disagree
24.1
Disagree
22
16.7
9.9
Don't know /Not sure
ber '02 December '02

Page 15
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
LTTE
In December 2002, a majority of the Jaffna public (88.8% passed on the LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran for his 1996. Of those aware of this sentence, 70.9% believe that peace process.
If yes, what in your opinion will be the im on the peace process?
80
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
4.6
8.8
0
Will be positive Will have no impact Will b
63.7% of the people are aware of the Heroes’ Day speech Prabhakaran. Of those aware of this speech, 80.3% are of t impact on the peace process while 6.4% of the people believ
If 'Yes', what in your opinion, will be the im
on the peace process?
90
80.3 80
70
60
50 %
40
30
20
10
6.4
0
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact Will have im
© Social Indicator, December 2002

14 Jaffna
f the Jaffna public (88.8%) is aware of the 200 year sentence illai Prabhakaran for his role in the Central Bank bombing of tence, 70.9% believe that it will have a negative impact on the
nion will be the impact of this verdict
e peace process?
.8
f the Heroes’ Day speech made by the LTTE leader Velupillai his speech, 80.3% are of the opinion that it will have a positive
6.4% of the people believe that it will have no impact.
70.9
15.7
no impact Will be negative Don't know /Not sure
opinion, will be the impact of this speech n the peace process?
6.4
2
11.3
e no impact Will have a negative
impact
Don't know /Not sure

Page 16
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
THAILAND TALKS
In December 2002, 60% of the people said they are aware between the Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE.
Are you aware of the 2nd round of talk place in Thailand between the Governm
Lanka and the LTTE ?
70
60 60
50
%
40 30
20
10
0
Yes
If "Yes", are you committees Of those who said they
rehabilitation ne were aware of the peace
and norm talks, a majority (69.1%) are aware of the decision to form three sub- committees on the
30.3 immediate humanitarian and rehabilitation needs in the North and East, de-escalation and normalization and political matters.
© Social Indicator, December 2002

15 Jaffna
eople said they are aware of the 2nd round of peace talks held anka and the LTTE.
e 2nd round of talks that took tween the Government of Sri and the LTTE ?
40
No
If "Yes", are you aware of the decision to form three sub- committees on the immediate humanitarian and rehabilitation needs in the North and East, de-escalation and normalization and political matters ?
0.6 30.3
Yes
No
69.1
No response

Page 17
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
Of those aware of the decision to form the three sub-com that the sub-committee on the immediate humanitarian an and East should be given priority in the peace process. 38.5 de-escalation and normalization should be given more pri that more priority should be given to the sub-committee on
According to your understanding, which sub-c
should be given more prio
60
51.1 50
40
38.5
%
30
20
10
0
The immediate humanitarian and rehabilitation needs of the North and East
Please state your level of satisfaction with the ou
talks.
20.4
De-escalation and normalization
Poli
80
73.2
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
0.7 0
Highly satisfied Somewhat
satisfied
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
So dis
© Social Indicator, December 2002

16 Jaffna
o form the three sub-committees, a majority (51.1%) believes mediate humanitarian and rehabilitation needs in the North in the peace process. 38.5% believe that the sub-committee on hould be given more priority, while 9.6% are of the opinion to the sub-committee on political matters.
standing, which sub-committee do you think ld be given more priority?
38.5
9.6
0.8
alation and alization
Political matters No response
of satisfaction with the outcome of the
talks.
0.7
A majority of the public (73.2%) is somewhat satisfied with the outcome of the second round of peace talks, while 20.4% say they are highly 3.6
satisfied.
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
2.1
Somewhat dissatisfied
Don't know/Not sure

Page 18
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDP’s)
According to your understanding, is the Government committed to treating the retur the IDP's as priority in the peace process
70
62.5
60
50
40 %
30
24.4
20
10
0
Yes No Don't k
However as depicted in the graph below, a majority of the p is committed to treating the return of the IDP’s as priority in
According to your understa committed to treating the re priority in the peac
70
60.6 60
50
40 %
30
23
20
10
0
Yes N
© Social Indicator, December 2002

17 Jaffna
D PERSONS (IDP’s)
nderstanding, is the
to treating the return of
62.5% of the people in the peace process?
are of the view that the Government is
62.5
not committed to treating the return of the IDP’s as priority in the peace process
13.1
No Don't know /Not sure
below, a majority of the people (60.6%) believe that the LTTE of the IDP’s as priority in the peace process.
g to your understanding, is the LTTE d to treating the return of the IDP's as
riority in the peace process?
23.1
16.3
No Don't know /Not sure

Page 19
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
According to your understanding, high Answers]
80
70
67
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
9.1
7.2
0
Essential for the presence of security forces in the North and East
A majority (67.8%) of those surveyed perceive High Securi the return of IDP’s, while 9.1% are of the opinion that H security forces in the North and East. 7.2% believe they security in the North and East. 15.3% are unsure of what a H
EASTERN MUSLIMS
Since the Ceasefire Agreement in February 2002, th of the Muslims in the North and East has...
49.4
3.8
Necessary for the provision of security in the North and East
An impedim return of
60
50
40
34.1
%
30
20
10
7.2
0
Improved Remained the
Deteriorated Don't Know same
sure
© Social Indicator, December 2002

18 Jaffna
understanding, high security zones are...[Multiple
Answers]
67.8
15.3 .2
3.4
ry for the of security th and East
yed perceive High Security Zones (HSZ) as an impediment to are of the opinion that HSZ are essential for the presence of East. 7.2% believe they are necessary for the provision of .3% are unsure of what a HSZ is.
An impediment to the return of the IDP's
Don't know / Not sure No response
ent in February 2002, the situation he North and East has...
7.2
49.4% of the people believe that the situation of the Muslims in the North and East has improved
34.1
since the CFA, while 7.2% are of the opinion that it has deteriorated. 34.1% of 5.5
the people are unsure of the situation of the
eteriorated Don't Know/Not
sure
Muslims in the North and East. No response

Page 20
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
OSLO
57.2% of the people are aware of the meeting in Oslo o support of the peace process. Of those aware of this meetin are of the opinion that it will have a positive impact on the p it will have a negative impact, while 14.8% say they don’t kn
If 'Yes', in your opinion, what impact will it have
of the north?
80
70.5 70 60 50 %
40 30 20 10
4.4
8.2
0
Will have a
Will have no
Will have a
Don't positive impact
impact
negative impact
FOREIGN AID
I beleive the region that gets the bulk o assistance is the...[Multiple An
60
51.6 50
40
%
30
20
11.9
11.3 10
0
South North-East Whole country
A majority (51.6%) believes that the region that gets the b North East, while 11.9% say it is the South. 19.4% are unsur
© Social Indicator, December 2002

19 Jaffna
of the meeting in Oslo on 25th November of key donors in those aware of this meeting, an overwhelming majority (70.5%) a positive impact on the people of the north. 8.2% believe that le 14.8% say they don’t know.
at impact will it have on the people f the north?
8.2
the region that gets the bulk of the economic assistance is the he South. 19.4% are unsure.
14.8
2.1
Will have a negative impact
Don't know / Not sure
No response
n that gets the bulk of the economic e is the...[Multiple Answers]
11.3
19.4
5.8
t Whole country Don't know / Not
sure
No response

Page 21
Perspectives on Peace from Jaffna
PRESIDENT CHANDRIKA KUMARATUNGE’S
A majority (77.8%) is aware of President Chandrika K ‘National Commission for Ethnic Reconcilliation and Sustai to mark her eighth anniversary as President on 12th Nov President’s speech, 48.6% are of the view that it will have a it will have a positive impact. 17.1% are of the opinion that impact. 21.4% are unsure.
If yes, what in your opinion will be the impa
proposal on the peace process?
60 50
48.6
40 %
30 20
12.9
17.1
10 0
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will have a negative impac
© Social Indicator, December 2002

20 Jaffna
A KUMARATUNGE’S SPEECH
President Chandrika Kumaratunge’s proposal to set up a Reconcilliation and Sustainable Peace’ made by her in a speech s President on 12th November 2002. Of those aware of the he view that it will have a negative impact, while 12.9% believe % are of the opinion that the President’s proposal will have no
nion will be the impact of this the peace process?
48.6
21.4
no Will have a
negative impact
Don't know / Not sure

Page 22
© Social Indicator, December 2002
Annex METHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnair face interviews amongst a sample of 320 respondent Vadamarachchi and Thenmarachchi divisional secr secretariats of Valikamam. Samples are allotted to proportion of the population in these areas and the G the primary sampling unit, are selected randomly. Withi are chosen randomly, thereby giving all citizens of opportunity to be selected. In the case of high secu instructed to select GNDs from a list of alternative GN
Eleven field enumerators, with a minimum Advanced L resident in the Jaffna district, were hired to conduct comprised of two women and nine men, who were training on administering the questionnaire and fie accompanied visits, 10% of their work was rechecked b maintain the quality of the fieldwork.
The findings of this survey are subject to a 3% margin o

i
Annex
a structured questionnaire, administered through face-to- mple of 320 respondents. It covered the Jaffna, Nallur, arachchi divisional secretariats and all the divisional Samples are allotted to these areas according to the in these areas and the Grama Niladari Divisions (GND), selected randomly. Within the selected GND respondents by giving all citizens of that particular area an equal In the case of high security areas, the enumerators are m a list of alternative GNDs.
a minimum Advanced Level educational qualification and t, were hired to conduct the interviews. The field team nd nine men, who were given a one-day intensive field he questionnaire and field techniques. In addition to eir work was rechecked by the senior SI staff, in order to dwork.
subject to a 3% margin of error.

Page 23
SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION
AREA TOTA Uduvil (Valikamam S.) 30 Chankanai (Valikamam W.) 30 Tellippalai (Valikamam N.) 30 Nallur 30 Jaffna 30 Kopai (Valikamam E.) 30 Sandilippai (Valikamam S.W.) 30 Karaveddi (Vadamarachchi S.W.) 30 Point Pedro (Vadamarachchi N) 30 Maruthankerny (Vadamarachchi E) 20 Chavakachcheri (Thenmarachchi) 30
320
DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
SEX (%) Male 35.6 Female 64.4 320
AGE (%) 15 – 25 yrs 19.4 26 – 35 yrs 23.4 36 – 45 yrs 19.1 46 – 55 yrs 22.8 56 – 65 yrs 14.1 66 yrs and above 1.3 320
© Social Indicator, December 2002

ii
TION
TOTAL ) 30 W.) 30 N.) 30 30 30 30 S.W.) 30 hchi S.W.) 30 achchi N) 30 arachchi E) 20 marachchi) 30
320
STRIBUTION
(%) 35.6 64.4 320
(%) 19.4 23.4 19.1 22.8 14.1 1.3 320

Page 24
INCOME (%) Below Rs 5000 78.8 Rs 5001 – Rs 10 000 7.8 Rs 10 001 – Rs 15 000 2.8 Rs 15 001 – Rs 20 000 1.6 Rs 20 001 – Rs 25 000 0.3 Rs 25 001 and above 0.3 No response 8.4 320
OCCUPATION Executives, Managerial and Administrativ Professionals Professionals Technicians & Associate Professionals Clerk Travel, Restaurant, Protective Service Workers Sales Workers Agricultural and Fisheries Workers Student Housewife Retired Business Self employed Elementary Occupations Unemployed Other
© Social Indicator, December 2002

iii
(%) 78.8 7.8 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.3 8.4 320
(%) rial and Administrative 1.9
5.6 te Professionals 1.9 3.1 otective Service Workers & 5.6
ries Workers 8.8 84 38.4 2.2 0.6 1.9 ns 3.1
17.2 1.3 320

Page 25
EDUCATION Cannot read & write Literate but no formal education Up to grade 5 Grade 6-9 Up to O’ Level O’ Level Up to A’ Level A’ Level Vocationally trained Technically trained Professional Undergraduate Graduate and above
© Social Indicator, December 2002

iv
(%) 2.5 education 4.1
12.8 19.7 10.9 21.9 3.8 14.4 0.3 1.3 2.2 2.5 3.4 320

Page 26
For further information please c
Shamindrini Sivananthan or Pradee
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternative 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: cpapoll@diamon Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpa

r information please contact:
ni Sivananthan or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator tre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 5 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Page 27
Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social resea conducts polls on socio-economic and political iss
Operating under the Board of Directors of Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in Septem longstanding vacuum for a permanent, profess polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and political is
Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a me majority of the public can express their opinions o Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social is a means through which public opinion can influ debate.
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alterna 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: c Fax: 370475 Web: h

independent social research organisation, which conomic and political issues.
oard of Directors of the Centre for Policy as established in September 1999, and filled a r a permanent, professional and independent a on social and political issues.
of empowerment, a means by which the silent express their opinions on issues affecting them. t surveys on key social issues, thereby providing public opinion can influence the public policy
Published by:
Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org