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PEACE CONFIDENCE IN JAFFNA
SOCIAL IND
O
© Social Indicator, October 20

ACE CONFIDENCE INDEX –
FNA
SOCIAL INDICATOR OCTOBER 2003
ocial Indicator, October 2003

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This report was prepared with funds provided by:
The U.S. Agency for International Development under the Off Sri Lanka

s provided by:
evelopment under the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI)

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
I
NTRODUCTION
In October 2003, Social Indicator (SI), the polling unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives conducted the second wave of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) – Jaffna, following the resumption of this survey in August 2003.
Assistance for the survey is given through the provision of a grant to Social Indicator (SI)/the Centre for Policy Alternative (CPA) by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI).
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
The qu Confide of most the Pea and som Jaffna si
The fie conduct October Thenma Vadama question through amongs of 298 r
E
XECUTIVE SUMMARY
▪ In contrast to the other issues, the people of Ja of Living has got worse when compared to signing of the CFA. This perception has deterio August 2003 (Ref. Page 3)
▪ The number of people who are unsure of when solution to the North East war had increased fr to 56.7% in October 2003 (Ref. Page 5)
▪ A majority (88.6%) of the people continue to the means of ending the war and having peace (
▪ 67.1% of the people of Jaffna believe that all et together (Ref. Page 7)
▪ Opinion regarding the need for an international to solve the North East war in Sri Lanka as bei to 81.5% in October 2003 when compared to same year (Ref. Page 7)
▪ In October 2003, whilst 38.3% say that India Lanka peace process is essential, 37% believe t impact or that it is not essential (Ref. Page 9)

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dicator (SI), e for Policy econd wave dex (PCI) – tion of this
iven through to Social for Policy nited States evelopment f Transition
The questionnaire for the Peace Confidence Index – Jaffna comprises of most of the questions contained in the Peace Confidence Index (PCI), and some which are specific to the Jaffna situation.
The fieldwork for this survey was conducted from the 7th to the 14th of October in the Jaffna, Nallur, Thenmarachchi, Valikammam and Vadamarachchi areas. A structured questionnaire was administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a randomly selected sample of 298 respondents.
ARY
er issues, the people of Jaffna state that the Cost orse when compared to the period before the his perception has deteriorated significantly since e 3)
e who are unsure of when there will be a permanent East war had increased from 48.5% in August 2003 003 (Ref. Page 5)
f the people continue to believe in Peace Talks as he war and having peace (Ref. Page 5)
f Jaffna believe that all ethnic communities can live
need for an international third party’s involvement st war in Sri Lanka as being essential, has increased 2003 when compared to 65.8% in August of the )
ilst 38.3% say that Indian involvement in the Sri is essential, 37% believe that it will have a negative t essential (Ref. Page 9)
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
▪ The belief that the Ceasefire Agreement (C another year has declined from 40.1% in October 2003 (Ref. Page 9)
▪ 90.5% of those who are aware of the involv monitoring the CFA believe that it is essen succeed (Ref. Page 10)
▪ 49.7% of the people are somewhat satis education facilities in the Jaffna peninsula, w feel the same way about the availability of sp
▪ 79.5% and 81.9% approve of the bringing other parts of the country to Jaffna to im facilities respectively (Ref. Page 12 and Page
▪ An overwhelming majority (92.3%) agree Interim Administration for the North and E
▪ 81.8% of the people of Jaffna get their in Administration through Newspapers (Ref. P
▪ While 47.2% of the people feel that only the this interim administration, 19.4% are of should represent the Tamil community alo representation. 10.4% are of the view tha should comprise of the LTTE and other T Tamil community and Sinhala and Muslim re
▪ 91.7% state that they agree with the LTTE p Interim Administration (Ref. Page 16)
▪ Of those who have heard of a federal so federal system is the best way of governing t
▪ More than half (54.3%) the people of Jaffn will not lead to secession. However, while 1 neither agree nor disagree that a federal stat Page 17)
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003

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e Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) will last for more than declined from 40.1% in August 2003 to 33.2% in f. Page 9)
o are aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in A believe that it is essential in order for the CFA to 10)
ople are somewhat satisfied with the availability of in the Jaffna peninsula, while a similar number (46%) about the availability of sports facilities (Ref. Page 11)
approve of the bringing of resource personnel from country to Jaffna to improve education and sports ly (Ref. Page 12 and Page 13)
majority (92.3%) agree with the setting up of an ation for the North and East (Ref. Page 14)
ple of Jaffna get their information about the Interim ough Newspapers (Ref. Page 14)
e people feel that only the LTTE should be involved in nistration, 19.4% are of the opinion that the LTTE the Tamil community along with Sinhala and Muslim .4% are of the view that this interim administration f the LTTE and other Tamil parties representing the and Sinhala and Muslim representation (Ref. Page 15)
ey agree with the LTTE playing a dominant role in the ation (Ref. Page 16)
ve heard of a federal solution 76.6% believe that a e best way of governing the country. (Ref. Page 16)
4.3%) the people of Jaffna believe that a federal state ession. However, while 14.9% agree that it will, 11.7% disagree that a federal state will lead to secession (Ref.
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
B
URNING
I
SSUES
In October 2003, people of Jaffna are of the opinion issues like Transport (1.16), Communication facilities (1 (0.94), the Availability of Household Items (1.08) improved when compared to the period before th Agreement (CFA). However, as depicted in the graph deteriorated when compared with August 2003. In con people of Jaffna state that the situation of the Cost of compared to the period before the signing of the CFA perception has deteriorated significantly since August 20
Burning Issues
Availability of household items
Communication facilities
Human rights
0.42
0.55
Law and order
0.28
-0.26
0.6 0.61
-2 -1 0 1
Average (5-point scale)
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
0.31
Freedom of movement
0
Transport facilities
Health
0.74 0
Education opportunities
0.56
-1.72
Cost of Living
Employment opportunities

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Jaffna are of the opinion that the situation of certain ommunication facilities (1.27), Freedom of Movement ousehold Items (1.08) and Education (0.56) have to the period before the signing of the Ceasefire as depicted in the graph below, these facilities have with August 2003. In contrast to the other issues, the e situation of the Cost of Living has got worse when e the signing of the CFA and as the graph shows, this gnificantly since August 2003.
Burning Issues
0.61
Average (5-point scale)
1.08
1.22
1.27
1.48
0.42
0.55
r
0.28
0.31
t
0.94
1.03
October '03
1.16
1.34
August '03
0.74
0.93 0.56
1
-0.26
0.6
0 1 2
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
M
EANING OF
W
AR AND
P
EACE
‘Peace’ means End of War to a majority (47.3%) of peo October 2003. A similar number (46.6%) are of the op Ethnic Harmony. This opinion has decreased since Au when compared to December 2002 (60.3%). The view Safe has increased from 15.6% in August 2003 to 23.5%
What does 'peace' mean to you? [Multip
80
70
67.8
60.3
57.7 60
53.3
50
48.8
45.9
%
40
29.8
43.1
35.8
30
23.5 23.5 23.4
18.8 20
18.7
10
4.3
0
0
13
9 8.4
15.6
8.1 1.9
1.3
5.9
July '02 October '02 December '02 August '03
In the same month, a majority (57.7%) of the people Death and Destruction, an increase in opinion since 29.9% of the people of Jaffna perceive ‘war’ as Development, 27.5% equate it with Fighting for Rights.
What does 'war' mean to you? [Multip
70
65.9
60
50.7 58.8 50
40
34.2 36.8
43.3
%
30
24.7
19.5
12.2 6 0
5.3
July '02 October '02 December '02 August '03 Octob
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
29
20
16.4
23.4
25.1
14.6
1616
10.5
15
10
7.4
2.5
2
0

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ACE
a majority (47.3%) of people in the Jaffna peninsula in ber (46.6%) are of the opinion that ‘peace’ means the n has decreased since August 2003 (57.7%), and also r 2002 (60.3%). The view that ‘peace’ means Feeling
in August 2003 to 23.5% in October 2003.
e' mean to you? [Multiple Answers]
0.3
57.7
46.6
23.5
15.6
ty (57.7%) of the people are of the view ‘war’ means ncrease in opinion since August 2003 (43.3%). While affna perceive ‘war’ as a Hindrance to Economic t with Fighting for Rights.
ar' mean to you? [Multiple Answers]
25.1
17.4
End of war Ethnic harmony 5.9
47.3
Feeling safe
35.8
23.5
End of terrorism
39.3
Separate state Freedom
.8
.4
8.1
8.1
.3
5.9
7
er '02 August '03 October '03
9
57.7
12.4 2
2
2 August '03 October '03
Means of achieving peace
Fighting for rights 43.3
Disharmony amongst races
29.9
29
27.5
Hindrance to economic development Death/ Destruction
16
Terrorism 23.2
16
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
56.7% of the respondents declare that they do not permanent settlement to the war in Sri Lanka. This is a (48.5%). The number of people who are of the opini permanent settlement to the war in Sri Lanka has decr 2003 to 20.5% in October 2003.
When do you think there wil be a pe settlement to the war in Sri Lan 60
50
40
%
30
27.7
20.5 20
10
12.4
9.7
4.9
6.4
1.3
3.4
4.6
0
Soon Within the
Within the next 5yrs
next 10yrs
SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT
In October 2003, a majority (88.6%) of the people c Talks as the means of ending the war and having peace
How do you think we can end the war and ha
Lanka? [Multiple Answers]
2.3
2.2
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
Not in my life time
Nev
100 90
89.3
91
82.2
85
80 70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10
3.8
6.8
0
July '02 October
December '02
'02
August '03 Octo
'03

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eclare that they do not know when there will be a ar in Sri Lanka. This is an increase from August 2003 ple who are of the opinion that there will soon be a war in Sri Lanka has decreased from 27.7% in August
3.
ink there wil be a permanent to the war in Sri Lanka?
56.7
48.5
August '03
October '03
6.4
1.3
3.4 4.6
3
the
Not in my
Never Don't 0yrs
life time
know
T
(88.6%) of the people continue to believe in Peace the war and having peace in Sri Lanka.
n end the war and have peace in Sri
[Multiple Answers]
2.2
85
88.6
3.8
6
ber August '03 October
'03
LTTE defeating the Government
Peace talks 6.8
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
Corrupt military and political leaders is seen as the rea solution to the war for the last 15 odd years by 4 peninsula. This belief, held by a majority of the peop from 28.3% in August 2003. While 25.5% of the people to no political will, 20.8% say they don’t know. The t don’t know has increased since August 2003 (14.3%) December 2002 (8.8%).
Why do you think there hasn't been a solutio
odd years ? [Multiple An
70
60
57.3
59.1
50
40 %
30
31.5
27.9
28.3
20
22.8
19.8
14.9
14.7
18.1
16.6
14.3
5.7
July '02 October '02 December
'02
In October 2003, 50.3% feel that total victory canno parties in the war. In August 2003, 30% were unsure could be achieved by one of the parties in the war, whic in December 2003. However, in October 2003, this va less the same.
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
24.1
12.7
8.8 6.9
5.3 6.2 Can total victory be achieved by one of the p
war ?
21.5 15.9
14
10
9.4
9.7
12.4 10.4
0
August '03 Octo
70
62.2
60
48.8 50
47.4
48.5
%
40
27.8
30.3 30 30
20
11.4
17
20
10
0
July '02 October '02 December
'02
August '03 Oc

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leaders is seen as the reason why there has not been last 15 odd years by 42.3% of the people of the y a majority of the people, shows a notable increase hile 25.5% of the people attribute a lack of a solution y they don’t know. The trend of those who say they ce August 2003 (14.3%) and also when compared to
hasn't been a solution to the war for the last 15
years ? [Multiple Answers]
Corrupt military and political leaders .1
No political will
The Government does not want 42.3
peace War is necessary for people in power 28.3
Lack of compromise on both
24.1 6
14.3
14
20.8 25.5
sides lack of unity and understanding
20.5 12.4 10.4 6.2
10.4 6.7 3.7
Don't know
r August '03 October '03
l that total victory cannot be achieved by one of the t 2003, 30% were unsure as to whether total victory he parties in the war, which was an increase from 20% , in October 2003, this value continued to be more or
eved by one of the parties in this
war ?
2
48.5
50.3
30
0
21.5
27.9 21.1
.9
ber August '03 October '03
Yes
No
Not sure
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
LEVEL OF TOLERANCE AND PLURALISM
67.1% of the people of Jaffna believe that all ethnic co and as depicted in the graph below, it continues to be majority since the start of the survey in July 2002 however, 23.5% do not believe that all ethnic communi that has increased when compared to July 2002 (14.4%)
Do you think all the ethnic communities ca
80
71.2 70
58.5
61.3
63.8
60
50
%
40
30
27.2
24.1 23.1
20
14.4
10
0
8.7 5.4 8 6.2
10
7.2 4.1
5.9
July '02 October '02 December
'02
THE PEACE PROCESS AND INTERNATIONAL THI
A majority of the people of Jaffna (81.5%) believe that involvement to solve the North East war in Sri Lanka is number in the peninsula have always expressed this o notable increase in October 2003 when compared with
What is your opinion of the need for an interna
involvement to solve the North East war i
5
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
August '03 O
90
80
69.6
73.1
70
78.8
65.8
60
%
50
40 30
20
12.7
10
7
13.3
8.4
7.8
14
8.5
8.7
0
6.4
3.7
3.1 7.2 July '02 October '02 December
'02
August '03 Octobe

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PLURALISM
a believe that all ethnic communities can live together below, it continues to be the opinion expressed by a the survey in July 2002 (71.2%). In October 2003, e that all ethnic communities can live together, a trend ared to July 2002 (14.4%).
nic communities can live together?
1.3
63.8
67.1
Yes
No
Never 24.1 23.1
Don't know 23.5
10
7.2 4.1
5.9
2.7
ember 02
I TERNATIONAL THIRD PARTY INVOLVEMENT
affna (81.5%) believe that an international third party’s th East war in Sri Lanka is essential. While a significant e always expressed this opinion, there seems to be a 003 when compared with August 2003 (65.8%).
the need for an international third party's
e the North East war in Sri Lanka ?
81.5
2.3
6.4
August '03 October '03
65.8
8.5 7.2
Is essential
Will add a positive impact
Is not essential
Don't know /Not sure 14
8.7
5.4
r August '03 October '03
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
In October 2003, 86.2% approve of Norway assistin process, an increase from 81.8% in August 2003.
Please tell me if you approve or disapprove assisting in the Sri Lankan peace proc
100 90
81.9
74
87.8
81.8
86.2
80 70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10 0
5.7 7.7 3.3 14.9
8.4 8.8 2.5 2.8
0.6 8.8 4.9 4.2 8. 3 1.
July '02 October
December
August '03 Octobe '02
'02
'03
A similar majority (83.2%) approve of Norway continui peace process. This too, is an increase from August 200
Please tell me if you approve or disappro continuing to assist in the Sri Lankan pe
90 80
84.1
78.2
83
70
62.8 60
%
50 40 30 20
15.5
0
6.2 10 10
3.4
1.9
9.8
6.8 4.6 10
3
October '02 December
August '03 October '0 '02
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003

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prove of Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace % in August 2003.
approve or disapprove of Norway e Sri Lankan peace process ?
.8
81.8
86.2
2.5 0.6 Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
8.8 8.7
4.9 4.2 3.7 1.3
Don't know/Not sure
ber August '03 October
'03
prove of Norway continuing to assist in the Sri Lankan increase from August 2003 (78.2%).
u approve or disapprove of Norway t in the Sri Lankan peace process ?
78.2
83.2
6.8 4.6
3
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
9.8
10.7
Don't know /Not sure
August '03 October '03
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
When asked about the need for Indian involvement i there continues to be a divided trend in opinion in believe that it is essential, an increase from August 2 otherwise. This opinion was reversed a year ago in O believed that Indian involvement was not essential w believed that it was.
What is your opinion of the need for India's i Lanka peace process ?
50
40
36.8
38.1
33.8
23.1
23.8
July '02 October '02 December
'02
CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT
A majority of the people of Jaffna (52.3%) remain unc the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). There is a decrease in t last for more than a year, from 40.1% in August 2003 to
What do you think of the longevity Agreement (CFA)?
40.1
14
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
32.6
%
30
30.3
29.3
20
14.2
14.1 14.7
10
12 9
6.8
13.9 7.5
11.6
13
0
5.9 3.3
1.9 2.2
4.2
August '03 Octobe
60 50 40
33.2 %
30 20
14.4
10 0
The ceasefire agreement will last for more than another year
The ceasefire agreement will not last for more than another year
D

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for Indian involvement in Sri Lanka’s peace process, ded trend in opinion in October 2003. While 38.3% increase from August 2002 (32.6%), 24.2% believe reversed a year ago in October 2002, where 38.1% ment was not essential while 23.8% of the opinion
of the need for India's involvement in the Sri Lanka peace process ?
38.3
6
Jaffna (52.3%) remain uncertain as to the longevity of ). There is a decrease in the opinion that the CFA will 40.1% in August 2003 to 33.2% in October 2003.
ink of the longevity of the Ceasefire
Agreement (CFA)?
14
Is essential .8
32.6
Will add a positive impact
.3
29.3
Will have no impact
24.2
Will add a negative impact
1
14.7
11.6
5.9
13
12.8
15.4
Is not essential Don't know/Not sure
2.2
4.2 1.7 ber August '03 October '03
52.3
The ceasefire reement will not st for more than
another year
45.3
14.4
August '03 October '03
Don't know/Not sure
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION
Of those who are aware of the involvement of foreign CFA (84.9%) an overwhelming majority of 90% feel th the CFA to succeed.
If "Yes", what is your opinion of the need
mission for the CFA to suc
100 90
87 88.9 88.2
84.3
80 70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10 0
2.2
5.9
3.4
1.5
4.9
4.6
5.4
3.1
July '02 October
December '02
'02
The view that the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission monitoring of the CFA has decreased from 52.4% October 2003. This is also a decline in opinion when 2002 (63.7%).
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission
monitoring of the ceasefire ag
8.4
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
August '03 Oct
'0
70
63.7
60
57.2
45.8
14.7
July '02 October '02 December
'02
52.4 50
40 %
30
22.7 22.9
0 20
10
10.7
8
16.7
19.1
8.8
16
16.9
13.3
August '03 Octo

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SION
he involvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the g majority of 90% feel that it is essential in order for
opinion of the need for such a monitoring
for the CFA to succeed ?
.2
84.3
90.5
Is essential
Will have a positive impact
.6
5.4
3.6 3.1
3.2 Don't know/Not sure
er August '03 October
'03
ka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) is impartial in its decreased from 52.4% in August 2003 to 47% in decline in opinion when compared with December
nka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its
ing of the ceasefire agreement.
.7
52.4
47
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree
.8 8.4
16
16.9
14.7
17.4
3.6
Don't know/Not sure
2.8
ber August '03 October '03
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
While a majority (42.6%) continues to believe that th monitoring of the CFA, it is a decline when compared 22.5% express uncertainty when asked about the effec monitoring of the CFA.
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission i monitoring of the ceasefire agre
70
60.7 60
50
46.5
44.3
42.6
40
35.9 %
30
26.8
24.1
21 21.8 14.4 22 20. 11.4
9.9 8.4
13.
July '02 October
'02
EDUCATION AND SPORTS
In October 2003, when asked about their satisfact education facilities in the peninsula and 49.7% sta satisfied. However, 25.5% of the people declare that t the availability of education facilities in Jaffna.
Are you satisfied with the availability of edu
Jaffna peninsula?
9.1
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
22.5 20
17.3 10
16.7
16
0
December '02
August '03
October '03
60
49.7 50
40
%
30
20
10
3.7
8.7
0
Very satisfied Somewhat
satisfied
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
Somew dissatis

Page 11
ntinues to believe that the SLMM is effective in its decline when compared to 60.7% in December 2002. en asked about the effectiveness of the SLMM in its
Monitoring Mission is effective in its of the ceasefire agreement.
.4
ked about their satisfaction with the availability of eninsula and 49.7% state that they are somewhat the people declare that they are very dissatisfied with cilities in Jaffna.
Agree
44.3
42.6
Neither agree nor disagree
21.8
Disagree
20.1
16
13.1
Don't know /Not sure
h the availability of education facilities in the
Jaffna peninsula?
3.7
22.5
.9
17.3
er August
'03
October '03
25.5
3.4
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
8.7
Somewhat dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
Don't know/Not sure
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
While talking about the availability of such facilities people (79.5%) approve of bringing resource person country to improve the education system of the peninsu
Do you approve or disapprove of bringing personnel from other parts of the country t
improve the education system of the pen
79.5 80 70 60 50 %
40 30 20
19.1
10 0
Approve Disapprove
With regard to the availability of sports facilities proportion of people say that they are somewhat dissatisfied (23.5%) in October 2003.
Are you satisfied with the availability of sport
Jaffna peninsula? 50
46 45 40 35 30 %
25 20 15
14.1
10 5
9.1 2.3 0
Very satisfied Somewhat
Neither satisfied
satisfied nor dissatisfied
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
Somewha dissatisfie

Page 12
ilability of such facilities in Jaffna, a majority of the bringing resource personnel from other parts of the tion system of the peninsula.
isapprove of bringing resource parts of the country to Jaffna to ion system of the peninsula?
19.1
0.7
Disapprove Don't know/ Not sure
ility of sports facilities in the peninsula, a similar that they are somewhat satisfied (46%) and very r 2003.
the availability of sports facilities in the Jaffna peninsula?
2.3
23.5
5
Neither atisfied nor issatisfied
9.1
Somewhat dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
Don't know/Not sure
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
In the case of sports facilities, an overwhelming m bringing resource personnel from other parts of the facilities in Jaffna.
Do you approve or disapprove of brin personnel from other parts of the cou
to improve sports facilities in the p
90
81.9 80 70 60
%
50 40 30 20
13.4 10 0
Approve Disapprove
INTERIM ADMINISTRATION
In October 2003, 61.1% state that they are aware of th the Government and the LTTE are contemplating. Of interim administration, 81.1% declare that they are so issues of interim administration.
If yes, please tell me to what extent are y about the issues of interim adminis
81.1 80 70 60 50 %
40 30 20 10
5.6
11.1
0
Very informed Somewhat informed Not infor
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003

Page 13
ies, an overwhelming majority (81.9%) approves of from other parts of the country to improve sports
that they are aware of the interim administration that E are contemplating. Of those who are aware of this declare that they are somewhat informed about the n.
disapprove of bringing resource er parts of the country to Jaffna rts facilities in the peninsula?
13.4
4.4
Disapprove Don't know/ Not sure
e to what extent are you informed ues of interim administration
81.1
11.1
2.2
at informed Not informed Don't know/ not
sure
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
A majority (81.8%) of the people say that they get Interim Administration through Newspapers, while 18. medium of information. This study reveals that other television, is negligible for the people of Jaffna.
Through which medium do you ge information about the Interim Admin
18.2
81.8
An overwhelming majority of 92.3% agree with th administration for the North and East.
Please tell me whether you agree setting up of an interim administra
100
92.3 East? 90 80 70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10
3.8 0
Agree Neither agree
nor disagree
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003

Page 14
eople say that they get their information about the gh Newspapers, while 18.2% rely on the radio as their study reveals that other mediums of information like people of Jaffna.
ich medium do you get your out the Interim Administration?
81.8
of 92.3% agree with the setting up of an interim and East.
e whether you agree or disagree with the
n interim administration for the North and
East?
3.8 3.2
0.6
Neither agree nor disagree
Newspaper Radio
Disagree Don't know
2003

Page 17
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
47.2% of the people of Jaffna feel that only the LTTE interim administration. However, 19.4% believe that wh Tamil community in the interim administration, there Muslim representation.
Please tell me who do you think shoul
50
47.2
40
30 %
20
19.4
10.4 10
0
LTTE only LTTE
LTTE and other representing the
Tamil parties Tamil community,
representing the with Sinhala and
Tamil community Muslim
with Sinhala and representation
Muslim representation
When the people of Jaffna were asked what powers they administration should have, 25.9% and 24.5% state that the Police and Judiciary respectively. 23.1% are of the o administration should have powers over Finances, while powers.
What powers do you think they should ha
Answers possible)
Judiciary
Administration
14
Finances
Police
Territorial control
15.4
Education
7.7
All powers
15.4
0 10
%
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003

Page 15
a feel that only the LTTE should be involved in this ver, 19.4% believe that while the LTTE represents the rim administration, there should also be Sinhala and
o do you think should be involved?
10.4 9.7
11.1
LTTE and other
LTTE and other
Don't know/ not the
Tamil parties
Tamil parties with
sure nity,
representing the
Sinhala, Muslim and
Tamil community,
and Central with Sinhala and
Government on
Muslim
representation representation
re asked what powers they think the interim 5.9% and 24.5% state that it should have control over ctively. 23.1% are of the opinion that the interim
wers over Finances, while 15.4% advocate for all
think they should have? (Multiple swers possible)
15.4
24.5
14
23.1
25.9
15.4
0 %
20 30
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
91.7% of the people state that they agree with the LTTE the Interim Administration.
Please tell me whether you agree or d the LTTE playing a dominant role in
100
91.7
Administration?
90 80 70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10
2.8
0.7 0
Agree Neither agree
Disagre nor disagree
FEDERALISM
Of those who have heard of a Federal solution, 76.6% is the best way of governing this country.
I believe a federal system is the
governing this countr
90 80
76.3
76.6
70 60
%
50 40 30 20 10
9.3
7.4
6.
0
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
D

Page 16
they agree with the LTTE playing a dominant role in
hether you agree or disagree with g a dominant role in the Interim Administration?
2.8
0.7
3.5
her agree disagree
a Federal solution, 76.6% believe that a federal system his country.
Disagree Don't know
federal system is the best way of governing this country
9.3
7.4 6.8 7.4 7.6 7.4
either agree nor
disagree
Disagree Don't know/Not
sure
2003

Page 19
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
According to more than half (54.3%) the people of Ja lead to secession. This opinion held by a majority in Oc
I think a federal state will lead to
60
54
50
40
%
30
20
14.9
11.7 10
0
Agree Neither agree
nor disagree
In October 2003, 53.2% of the people of Jaffna belief t everyone will benefit equally.
Within a federal structure, everyone
benefit
53.2
9.6
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
Disag
60 50 40 %
30
20 20 10 0
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
Disa

Page 17
(54.3%) the people of Jaffna, a federal state will not n held by a majority in October 2003.
al state will lead to secession
11.7
e people of Jaffna belief that within a federal structure,
54.3
17
ther agree disagree
Disagree Don't know/Not
sure
l structure, everyone will equally
benefit
9.6
20.2
13.8
er agree nor isagree
Disagree Don't know/Not
sure
2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
A significant majority (89.4%) declare that they will agre is approved by a majority of Sri Lankans.
I will agree with a federal soluti
approved by a majority of Sri L 100
89.4 90 80 70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10
3.2 3 0
Agree Neither agree
nor disagree
Finally, the survey also reveals that 39.4% of the people are being adequately informed about federalism.
I think people are being adequately
about federalism
39.4
22.3
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
Disa
50
40
30.9
%
30
20
10
0
Agree Neither agree
nor disagree
Disag

Page 18
) declare that they will agree with a federal solution if it
ri Lankans.
with a federal solution if it is by a majority of Sri Lankans
3.2 3.2 3.2
either agree or disagree
that 39.4% of the people of Jaffna believe that people about federalism.
Disagree Don't know/Not
sure
are being adequately informed about federalism
22.3
30.9
6.4
ither agree r disagree
Disagree Don't know/Not
sure
2003

Page 21
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003
A
NNEX
M
ETHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured que through face-to-face interviews amongst a sample covered the Jaffna, Nallur, Thenmarachchi and V secretariats and all the divisional secretariats of V allotted to these areas according to the proportion o areas and the Grama Niladari Divisions (GND), th are selected randomly. Within the selected GND, randomly, thereby giving all citizens of that p opportunity to be selected. In the case of high secur are instructed to select GNDs from a list of alternati
Ten field enumerators, with a minimum Adva qualification and resident in the Jaffna district collection of data. The field team comprised of thre who were given a one-day intensive field trainin questionnaire and field techniques. In addition to ac their work was rechecked by the senior SI staff, quality of the fieldwork.
The findings of this survey are subject to a 3% marg

i
A
NNEX
t using a structured questionnaire, administered rviews amongst a sample of 298 respondents. It r, Thenmarachchi and Vadamarachchi divisional ivisional secretariats of Valikamam. Samples are ording to the proportion of the population in these dari Divisions (GND), the primary sampling unit, ithin the selected GND, respondents are chosen g all citizens of that particular area an equal . In the case of high security areas, the enumerators
Ds from a list of alternative GNDs.
with a minimum Advanced Level educational t in the Jaffna district, were involved in the ld team comprised of three women and seven men, ay intensive field training on administering the hniques. In addition to accompanied visits, 10% of by the senior SI staff, in order to maintain the
are subject to a 3% margin of error.
2003

Page 22
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
S
AMPLE
D
ISTRIBUTION
AREA Uduvil (Valikamam S.) Chankanai (Valikamam W.) Tellippalai (Valikamam N.) Kopay (Valikamam E.) Sandilippai (Valikamam S.W.) Nallur Jaffna Karaveddi (Vadamarachchi S.W.) Point Pedro (Vadamarachchi N) Chavakachcheri (Thenmarachchi)
DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
SEX (%) Male 31.2 Female 68.8 298
AGE (%) 15 – 25 yrs 18.1 26 – 35 yrs 17.8 36 – 45 yrs 26.5 46 – 55 yrs 22.5 56 – 65 yrs 15.1 298
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003

ii
TOTAL 29 W.) 30 .) 30 30 S.W.) 30 30 29 chi S.W.) 30 hchi N) 30 arachchi) 30
298
ION
(%) 31.2 68.8 298
(%) 18.1 17.8 26.5 22.5 15.1 298
2003

Page 23
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
INCOME Below Rs 5000 Rs 5001 – Rs 10 000 Rs 10 001 – Rs 15 000 Rs 15 001 – Rs 20 000 Rs 20 001 – Rs 25 000
OCCUPATION Executives, Managerial and Administrative Professionals Professionals Technicians & Associate Professionals Clerk Travel, Restaurant, Protective Service Workers & Sales Workers Agricultural and Fisheries Workers Student Housewife Retired Business Self employed Elementary Occupations Driver Unemployed
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003

iii
ME (%) 82.6 0 13.1 000 1 000 0.3 000 0.3 298
TION (%) nagerial and fessionals
0.3
3.7 Associate 1.0
0.3 nt, Protective Sales Workers
0.7
d Fisheries 11.1
7.7 48.3 2.0 2.3 9.7 ations 0.7 0.7 11.1 298
2003

Page 24
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
EDUCATION Cannot read & write Literate but no formal education Up to grade 5 Grade 6-9 Up to O’ Level O’ Level Up to A’ Level A’ Level Vocationally trained Technically trained Professional Undergraduate Graduate and above
Copyright © Social Indicator October 2003

iv
ION (%) te 1.3 mal education 2.3 9.4 22.5 8.7 32.9 8.4 7.0 d 0.3 1.3 0.7 3.0 e 2.0 298
2003

Page 25
For further information please
Shamindrini Sivananthan or Prad
Social Indicator
Centre for Policy Alternativ
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
Tel: +94 11 2370472 Email: cpapoll@di
Fax: +94 11 2370475 Web: http://ww

information please contact:
Sivananthan or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator
e for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
2 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net
475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Page 26
Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social
which conducts polls on socio-economic and
Operating under the Board of Directors of
Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in S
filled a longstanding vacuum for a perman
independent polling facility in Sri Lanka o
issues.
Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a
silent majority of the public can express the
affecting them. Our mission is to conduct
issues, thereby providing a means through
can influence the public policy debate.
Published by:
Social Indicator
Centre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
Tel: +94 11 2370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net
Fax: +94 11 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

independent social research organisation,
socio-economic and political issues.
ard of Directors of the Centre for Policy
as established in September 1999, and
cuum for a permanent, professional and
ility in Sri Lanka on social and political
of empowerment, a means by which the
blic can express their opinions on issues
ssion is to conduct surveys on key social
g a means through which public opinion
policy debate.
by:
ator
Policy Alternatives
ane,
,
1 2370472 Email: iamond.lanka.net
1 2370475 Web:
.cpalanka.org