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PEACE CONFIDENCE IN JAFFNA
SOCIAL IND
DE
© Social Indicator, December 2

ACE CONFIDENCE INDEX –
FNA
SOCIAL INDICATOR
DECEMBER 2003
cial Indicator, December 2003

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
INTRODUCTION
The Peace Confidence Index (PCI) is a bi- monthly survey conducted in order to capture the changing trends in public opinion on the peace process and related issues. While the survey has been conducted in 22 administrative districts of Sri Lanka from its inception, it was not possible to extend the survey to the Jaffna peninsula till July 2002 due to the situation that prevailed at the time. Since July 2002, SI has been conducting the PCI bi-monthly in Jaffna except for three waves (February, April and June 2003).
Social Indicator (SI), the polling unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA)
conducte Peace Co Decembe
The PCI most of Confiden are spec fieldwork the 21 D Nallur, Vadamar questionn to-face selected s
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
▪ There is a notable increase in the number of peopl permanent settlement to the war in Sri Lanka soon 30.8% in December 2003
▪ The belief that total victory can be achieved by eithe from 21.1% in October 2003 to 13.7% in December 2
▪ 73.2% of the people are of the opinion that an intern essential to solve the North East was in Sri Lanka. decrease since October 2003 (81.5%)
▪ The view that the SLMM is impartial in its monitor increased from 47% in October 2003 to 64.8% in Dec
▪ 54.8% are unsure or don’t know whether the interes the East are being adequately represented at the peace
▪ Out of over half the people (56.5%) who are aw Governing Authority (ISGA) proposal that was ma 47.7% are of the opinion that the Sri Lankan Govern negotiate with the LTTE and arrive at a compromise
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is a bi- capture on the hile the in 22 from its tend the ly 2002 e time. ting the or three
.
t of the (CPA)
conducted the third consecutive wave of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) – Jaffna in December 2003 in Jaffna.
The PCI – Jaffna questionnaire comprises of most of the questions contained in the Peace Confidence Index (PCI), and some of which are specific to the Jaffna situation. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted from the 21st December to 3rd January 2004 in the Nallur, Thenmarachchi, Valikammam and Vadamarahchi areas. A structured questionnaire was administered through face- to-face interviews amongst a randomly selected sample of 299 respondents.
in the number of people who believe that there will be a e war in Sri Lanka soon, from 20.5% in October 2003 to
can be achieved by either parties in the war has declined 3 to 13.7% in December 2003
the opinion that an international third party’s involvement is East was in Sri Lanka. This trend in opinion has shown a (81.5%)
s impartial in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement has ber 2003 to 64.8% in December 2003
know whether the interests and concerns of the Muslims of y represented at the peace talks
ple (56.5%) who are aware of the LTTE’s Interim Self A) proposal that was made public on 1st November 2003, at the Sri Lankan Government’s response to it should be to d arrive at a compromise
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
▪ 77% of the people who are aware of the Heroes’ Da are convinced by his statement that the allegation proposal that they aim to create an independent stepping stones for separation are not true
▪ 85% of those who aware of the President’s decisio prorogue parliament believe that it will have a negat
▪ In December 2003, 62.9% of the people of Jaffna b most suited to lead the peace process on behalf of th
▪ 26.6% of the people perceive that cohabitation b Prime Minister will be advantageous to good gover unsure.
▪ 70.6% believe that constructive cohabitation betwee is not possible
▪ 28.8% of the people of Jaffna have heard of Fed those who have heard of Federalism, an overwhe opinion that it is the best way of governing the coun
▪ The Cost of Living continues to be the most bu compared to the period before the signing of the Ce
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e aware of the Heroes’ Day speech made by the LTTE leader ement that the allegations leveled against the LTTE’s draft to create an independent Tamil state or that they contain tion are not true
of the President’s decisions to take over the ministries and ve that it will have a negative impact on the peace process
of the people of Jaffna believe that the Prime Minister is the ace process on behalf of the Sri Lankan Government
ceive that cohabitation between the current President and vantageous to good governance, while a majority (41.8%) are
uctive cohabitation between the President and Prime Minister
affna have heard of Federalism in December 2003. Out of f Federalism, an overwhelming majority (90.7%) are of the way of governing the country
inues to be the most burning issue in Jaffna (-0.25) when efore the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
BURNING ISSUES
When compared to the period before the signing of the Ceas Cost of Living (-0.25) has got worse according to the people of when compared with October 2003 (-1.72), things have improv Household Items (1.48) and Communication Facilities (1.53) ha scale than law and Order (0.51) and Human Rights (0.67). Furth time with the period before the signing of the Ceasefire Agreem Transport Facilities (1.37) and Health (1.13) have also improve 2003.
Burning Issues
Availability of household items
1.0
1.02 0.61
5-point scale
1
Communication facilities
Human rights
0.42
0.55
0.67
Law and order
0.28
0.31
0.51
Freedom of movement
0.94
1.03 1.04
Transport facilities
1.
Health
0.74
0.93
1.1
Education opportunities
0.56
-0.26
0.6
-2 -1 0 1
1
-1.72
Cost -0.25
of Living
Employment opportunities
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e the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement, the situation of the ccording to the people of Jaffna in December 2003. However, -1.72), things have improved in this regard. The Availability of ication Facilities (1.53) have been ranked higher on a five-point uman Rights (0.67). Furthermore, when comparing the present g of the Ceasefire Agreement, Education Opportunities (1.31), (1.13) have also improved state the respondents in December
Burning Issues
0.61
1.08
1.22
1.48
1.27
1.48
1.53
0.42
0.55
0.67
0.28
0.31
0.51
1.04
December '03 October '03 August '03
-0.26
0.6
1.02
0 1 2
-point scale
0.94
1.03
1.16
1.34
1.37
0.74
0.93
1.13
0.56
1
1.31
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT
In December 2003, though a majority (52.2%) of the people e there will be a permanent settlement to the war in Sri Lanka, 30 is an increase when compared with 20.5% in October 2003.
When do you think there wil be a perm settlement to the war in Sri Lanka
60
56.7
50
48.5
52.2
40
%
30
27.7
30.8 20.5 20
12.4
9.7 9 10
4.9 0 4.6
6.4
3.7 3 1.3 August '03 October '03 December '03
Continuing with the high trend in opinion, an overwhelming m perceive Peace Talks as a means of ending the war and having pe
How do you think we can end the war an Lanka ? [Multiple Answe
100
89.3 90
91
82.2
85
88.6
80 70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10
2.3
2.2
3.8
6.8
6
0
July '02 October
December '02
'02
August '03 Octobe
'03
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y (52.2%) of the people express that they do not know when o the war in Sri Lanka, 30.8% declare that it will be soon. This .5% in October 2003.
k there wil be a permanent
the war in Sri Lanka?
52.2
Soon
Within the next 5yrs
30.8
Within the next 10yrs
Never
9
Don't know 3.7
1.3
December '03
inion, an overwhelming majority (90%) of the people of Jaffna ding the war and having peace in Sri Lanka in December 2003.
e can end the war and have peace in Sri ka ? [Multiple Answers]
.2
85
88.6
90
.8
er August '03 October
'03
LTTE defeating the Government
Peace talks
6.8
6
1.3
December '03
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
There is a decrease in the view that there hasn’t been a solution because of Corrupt military and political leaders from 42.3% in 2003. The belief that the absence of political will as a reason fo also decreased from 25.5% October 2003 to 15.1% in Decembe they do not know, has increased from 20.8% in October 2003 to
Why do you think there hasn't been a solution
odd years ? [Multiple Answ
70
60
57.3 59.1
50
28.3
10.4
July '02 October
'02
In December 2003, there is a slight decrease in those who achieved by one of the parties in this war, from 50.3% in Octob Similarly, the number of those who are of the opinion that tota war is possible has decreased from 21.1% in October 2003 to notable change in trend however, is in those who are not sur 40.1% in December 2003.
Can total victory be achieved by one of th
war ?
11.4
42.3 40 %
31.5 30
22.8 20
27.9
18.1
25.5 24.1 9.7
5.7
19.8
16.6 14.7
12.4
14 14.3
20.8
20.5 9.4
14.9 10
8.8 0
12.7
December '02
August '03 October
'03
Decem
'03
70
July '02 October
'02
62.2
60
48.8 50
47.4
48.5 50
%
40
27.8 30.3 30
20
30
27.
20
17
15.9
0
21.5 10
December '02
August '03 Octob
'03
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ere hasn’t been a solution to the war for the last 15 odd years cal leaders from 42.3% in October 2003 to 32.8% in December olitical will as a reason for a lack of a solution to the war has 003 to 15.1% in December 2003. However, those who say that 20.8% in October 2003 to 29.8% in December 2003.
asn't been a solution to the war for the last 15 ears ? [Multiple Answers]
10.4
3.7
decrease in those who believe that total victory cannot be war, from 50.3% in October 2003 to 46.2% in December 2003. e of the opinion that total victory by one of the parties in this .1% in October 2003 to 13.7% in December 2003. The most in those who are not sure – from 27.9% in October 2003 to
achieved by one of the parties in this
war ?
13.7
Corrupt military and political leaders
42.3
No political will
8.3
25.5
32.8
The Government does not want peace 24.1
15.1
14.3
29.8
4
14
20.8
20.5
War is necessary for people in power
Don't know
t '03 October
'03
12
December '03
48.5 50.3
30
27.9
er August '03 October
'03
46.2 40.1
21.5
Yes No Not sure 21.1
December '03
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
LEVEL OF TOLERANCE AND PLURALISM
A steady trend in opinion can be observed with regard to communities can live together. In December 2003 67.9% believ together – a view similar to October 2003 (67.1%) and August be compared with one year previously where 61.3% of the peop
Do you think all the ethnic communitie
80
71.2 70
58.5
61.3
63.8
60
50
%
40
30
27.2
24.1
23.1
20
14.4
10
8.7 8
10
7.2
0
5.4 6.2 4.1
5.9
July '02 October
December
August
Oc '02
'02
'03
'
T
HE PEACE PROCESS AND INTERNATIONAL THIRD PAR
In December 2003, though a majority (73.2%) of the peopl international third party involvement to solve the North East decrease when compared to October 2003 (81.5%). The numb know or are not sure, has risen from 8.7% in October 2003 to 1
What is your opinion of the need for an
involvement to solve the North Eas
90 80
69.6
73.1
70
78.8
81.5
65.8
60
%
50 40 30 20
13.3
8.4
14
8.5
0
6.4
3.7
2
July '02 October
'02 12.7 7
7.8
7.2
8.7 10
5
3.1
5
December '02
August '03 Octobe
'03
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LISM
observed with regard to the question of whether all ethnic ember 2003 67.9% believe that all ethnic communities can live 2003 (67.1%) and August 2003 (63.8%). This number can also where 61.3% of the people of Jaffna held the same perception.
e ethnic communities can live together?
61.3
63.8
67.1
67.9
Yes No Never
24.1 23.1
23.5
Don't know
21.4 10
7.2
6.4
4.1
5.9
2.7
5.45.4
ember
August
October
December '02
'03
'03
'03
ATIONAL THIRD PARTY INVOLVEMENT
ity (73.2%) of the people of Jaffna are of the opinion that to solve the North East war in Sri Lanka is essential, it is a 2003 (81.5%). The number of people who say that they don’t .7% in October 2003 to 18.1% in December 2003.
on of the need for an international third party's
o solve the North East war in Sri Lanka ?
81.5
65.8 73.2
8 1
8.5 7.2
2.3 2.3 Is essential
Will add a positive impact Is not essential Don't know/Not sure 14
8.7
18.1 5.4 5 er August '03 October
'03
December '03
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
80.9% of the people approve of Norway assisting in the Sri Lan This is however, a decrease when compared with 86.2% in uncertainty has increased amongst the people from 8.7% in O 2003.
Please tell me if you approve or disappro
Sri Lankan peace p
100 90
81.9
74
87.8
81.8
8
80 70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10
5.7 7.7
0
3.3 14.9
8.4 8.8
2.5 2.8
0.6
8.8
4.9 4.2 July '02 October '02 December
August '03 Oct '02
Approval for Norway continuing to assist in the Sri Lankan pe in October 2003 to 76.6% in December 2003.
Please tell me if you approve or disa continuing to assist in the Sri Lanka
90
84.1
83.2
62.8
3.4
1.9 6.8 4.6
33
October '02
78.2 80 70 60
%
50 40 30 20
15.5
10.7
0
10 9.8 10
6.2
December '02
August '03 October
'03
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ay assisting in the Sri Lankan peace process in December 2003. ompared with 86.2% in October 2003. On the other hand, e people from 8.7% in October 2003 to 15.1% in December
approve or disapprove of Norway assisting in the
Sri Lankan peace process ?
.8
81.8
86.2
80.9
3.7
ssist in the Sri Lankan peace process has declined from 83.2% er 2003.
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
8.8 8.7 15.1
Don't know/Not 2.5 0.6 4.9
4.2 1.3 2
1.7
sure
mber
August '03 October '03 December 2
'03
if you approve or disapprove of Norway ssist in the Sri Lankan peace process ?
78.2
83.2
76.6
6.8 4.6 33
4.7
2.3
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
9.8
10.7
16.1
Disapprove
Don't know/Not ugust '03 October
sure '03
December '03
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
A majority (42.5%) of the people of Jaffna are of the opinion th the Sri Lankan peace process is essential. This is an increase fro 26.1% believe otherwise, while 10.7% say that it will add a negat
C
EASEFIRE
What is your opinion of the need for India's
peace process
50
40
36.8
38.1
33.8
3
23.1
23.8
12
6.8
7.5
July '02 October
'02
32.6
%
30
30.3
29.3 24.
20
14.2
14.1
14.7
1
10
9
13.9
11.6
5.9 13
12. 6
0
3.3
1.9 2.2
4.2 December
August '03 Octobe '02
'03
A
GREEMENT
While a majority (52.5%) express uncertainty about the longevi are of the opinion that it will last for more than another year. 1 agreement will not last for more than another year.
What do you think of the longevity of
agreement ?
60
50
29.8
13 52.3
52.5 45.3
40
40.1
33.2 %
30
20
14 14.4
10
0
August '03 October '03 December '03
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ffna are of the opinion that the need for Indian involvement in ial. This is an increase from 38.3% in October 2003. However, say that it will add a negative impact.
of the need for India's involvement in the Sri Lanka
peace process ?
6
ertainty about the longevity of the ceasefire agreement, 29.8% more than another year. 13% are of the view that the ceasefire
nother year.
Is essential Will add a positive impact Will have no impact Will add a negative impact Is not essential Don't know/Not sure
nk of the longevity of the ceasefire
agreement ?
29.8
13
42.5
32.6 38.3
29.3 24.2
26.1
14.7
15.4
1.6
5.9 13
12.8
6
13.7
4.2
1
er August '03 October
'03
10.7
.2
1.7
December '03
52.5
The ceasefire agreement will last for more than another year
.2
The ceasefire agreement will not last for more than another
.4
year Don't know/Not sure
'03 December '03
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
SRI LANKA MONITORING MISSION
In December 2003, 81.6% of the people are aware of the monitoring the ceasefire. Out of this number, 91.4% believe essential for the Ceasefire Agreement to succeed.
If "Yes", what is your opinion of the nee
mission for the CFA to s
100
90
87 88.9 88.2
84.3
90.5
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
5.9
3.4
4.9
5.4 3. 0
2.2 1.5
4.6 3.1 3 July '02 October December
August '03 Octobe '02
'02
'03
The perception that the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM ceasefire agreement has increased notably from 47% in Octobe The number of people who say that they don’t know or are October 2003 to 11.1% in December 2003.
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is im ceasefire agreeme
70
2.8
July '02 October
'02
63.7
60
57.2
45.8
52.4
17.4
14.7
47 50
40 %
30
22.7 22.9 20
16.7
0
19.1
16
16.9
10
10.7 8
8.8 13.3
8.4
3.6
December '02
August '03 October
'03
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eople are aware of the involvement of foreign monitors in s number, 91.4% believe that such a monitoring mission is to succeed.
our opinion of the need for such a monitoring
sion for the CFA to succeed ?
.2
84.3
90.5
91.4
5.4
.6
3.1
3.2 2
nitoring Mission (SLMM) is impartial in its monitoring of the ably from 47% in October 2003 to 64.8% in December 2003. they don’t know or are unsure, has increased from 3.6% in 2003.
Is essential
Will have a positive impact
Don't know/Not sure
3.6 2.5 er August '03 October
'03
nitoring Mission is impartial in its monitoring of the
ceasefire agreement.
64.8
19.3
2.8
December '03
52.4
17.4
14.7
47
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
16
16.9
Don't know/Not sure 3.6
August '03 October
'03
11.1 4.9
December '03
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
A majority (56.6%) of the people of Jaffna are of the opinio monitoring of the ceasefire agreement in December 2003. The 13.1% in October 2003 to 7% in December 2003.
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission i of the ceasefire agre
70
60.7 60
50
46.5
44.3
42.6
40
35.9 %
30
26.8
24.1
21 21.8 14.4 22
9.9 20. 8.4
July '02 October
'02
THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY
When asked whether they think the interests and concerns of adequately represented at the peace talks, an almost equal n (21.4%). However, as seen in the graph below, a majority (54.8%
Do you think that the interests and con Muslims of the East are being adequtely re
peace talks?
21.7 21.4
0
22.5 20
17.3 10
11.4
16.7
16 13. 0
December '02
August '03 October
'03
60
50
40
%
30
20
10
Yes No D
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Jaffna are of the opinion that the SLMM is effective in its t in December 2003. The opposite view shows a decline from
mber 2003.
Monitoring Mission is effective in its monitoring of the ceasefire agreement.
44.3
42.6
56.6
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
21.8
25.4
Disagree
20.1
Don't know/Not sure 16
13.1 7
interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being talks, an almost equal number agree (21.7%) and disagree h below, a majority (54.8%) are unsure.
t the interests and concerns of the
re being adequtely represented at the
peace talks?
21.4
22.5
9
17.3
r August '03 October
'03
10.7
December '03
54.8
No Don't know/Not sure
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
Out of those who answered that the interests and concerns o adequately represented at the peace talks, 64.6% believe that peace process. On the other hand, out of those who are of the v the Muslims are not being adequately represented at the peace t it will have a negative impact on the peace process.
What in your opinion will be the impa
peace process?
70
64.6
10.8
Will have a positive impact
38.8% of the respondents say that there should not be a separate in December 2003. However, an almost similar number (36. separate Muslim delegation at the peace talks.
Do you think there should be a separa
at the peace talks
36.1
62 60
50
40 %
30
20
10
0
12.5
7.8 12.3 Will have no
impact
Will have negative im
50
40
38.8
30 %
20
10
0
Yes No
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interests and concerns of the Muslims of the East are being alks, 64.6% believe that it will have a positive impact on the t of those who are of the view that the interest and concerns of represented at the peace talks, a majority (62.5%) perceive that eace process.
inion will be the impact of this on the
peace process?
62.5
7.8
12.3 12.3
15.6
ave no pact
re should not be a separate Muslim delegation at the peace talks ost similar number (36.1%) believe that there should be a e talks.
re should be a separate Muslim delegation
at the peace talks?
38.8
24.7
No Don't know/Not sure
Yes No
Will have a negative impact
Don't know/ Not sure
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
LTTE’S ISGA PROPOSAL
In December 2003, a majority (56.5%) of the people of Jaffna Self Governing Authority (ISGA) proposal. Out of those wh believe that it will have a positive impact on the peace process.
Further, out of those who are aware of the LTTE’s ISGA pro the Sri Lankan Government’s response to it should be to nego compromise.
If you are aware of the LTTE's ISGA propos your opinion will be the impact of this on
process?
80 70
66.9
60 50 %
40 30 20 10
3.8
6.2
0
Will have a positive impact
In your opinion, the Sri Lankan Governm
to the above proposal should
43.8
Will have no impact Will have negative im
60
50
47.7
40
%
30
20
10
0
To accept it outright To negotiate with the LT and arrive at a comprom
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) of the people of Jaffna are not aware of the LTTE’s Interim oposal. Out of those who are aware of the proposal, 66.9% ct on the peace process.
LTTE's ISGA proposal, what in the impact of this on the peace
process?
6.2
of the LTTE’s ISGA proposal, 47.7% are of the opinion that se to it should be to negotiate with the LTTE and arrive at a
23.1
o impact Will have a
negative impact
Don't know/not sure
Sri Lankan Government's response ove proposal should be...
47.7
3.1
o negotiate with the LTTE nd arrive at a compromise
Don't know/Not sure
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
78.6% of the people are aware of the Heroes’ Day speech mad Prabhakaran on 27th November 2003. In his speech, Mr. Pr levelled at their draft proposals that they aim to create an in contain stepping stones for separation are not true. When aske statement, 77% of the people say that they are. However, 20.4%
TAKE OVER OF MINISTRIES
47.5% of the respondents are aware that on the 4th of No Kumaratunga took over the Defense, Interior and Media and M of those who are aware of this move by the President, an ove disapproval of it.
Please tell me are you convinced by his
90
80
77
70
60
50 %
40
30
20
10
2.1 0
I am convinced I am not convinced
Please tell me do you approve or disappr
decision to take over the Defence Min
90
81.7 80 70 60
%
50 40 30 20 10
9.2
0
Approve Disapprove
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Heroes’ Day speech made by the LTTE leader Mr. Velupillai 3. In his speech, Mr. Prabhakaran stated that the allegation they aim to create an independent Tamil state or that they are not true. When asked whether they are convinced by his they are. However, 20.4% express uncertainty.
ou convinced by his statement?
2.1
e that on the 4th of November 2003, President Chandrika Interior and Media and Mass Communications Ministries. Out by the President, an overwhelming majority (81.7%) express
20.4
I am not convinced Don't know/ not sure
u approve or disapprove of her over the Defence Ministry?
81.7
9.2
Disapprove Don't know
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
Out of those who are aware of the President’s take over of the take over of the Defense Ministry.
When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the Presid and Mass Communication Ministry, the same majority (81.7% December 2003.
Please tell me do you approve or dis decision to take over the Interior
90
7.7
Approve Disapprove
Please tell me whether you approve or disa decision to take over the Media and Mass Co
Ministry?
7.7
81.7 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
90
81.7 80 70 60
%
50 40 30 20 10 0
Approve Disapprove
Copyright © Social Indicator December 2003

Page 14 affna
resident’s take over of the ministries, 81.7% disapprove of her
o you approve or disapprove of her take over the Interior Ministry?
81.7
9.2
Disapprove Don't know/not sure
disapprove of the President’s decision to take over the Media he same majority (81.7%) of people state their disapproval in
you approve or disapprove of her e Media and Mass Communication
Ministry?
81.7
9.9
Disapprove Don't know/not sure
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
A
NNEX
M
ETHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire to-face interviews amongst a sample of 299 respond Thenmarachchi and Vadamarachchi divisional secret secretariats of Valikamam. Samples are allotted to th proportion of the population in these areas and the (GND), the primary sampling unit, are selected ran GND, respondents are chosen randomly, thereby particular area an equal opportunity to be selected. In th the enumerators are instructed to select GNDs from a l
Seven field enumerators, with a minimum Advanced L and resident in the Jaffna district, were involved in the team comprised of two women and five men, who we field training on administering the questionnaire and fie accompanied visits, 10% of their work was rechecked b to maintain the quality of the fieldwork.
The findings of this survey are subject to a 3% margin o
Copyright © Social Indicator December 2003

i affna
A
NNEX
a structured questionnaire, administered through face- sample of 299 respondents. It covered the Nallur, rachchi divisional secretariats and all the divisional amples are allotted to these areas according to the n in these areas and the Grama Niladari Divisions ng unit, are selected randomly. Within the selected sen randomly, thereby giving all citizens of that tunity to be selected. In the case of high security areas,
to select GNDs from a list of alternative GNDs.
a minimum Advanced Level educational qualification trict, were involved in the collection of data. The field en and five men, who were given a one-day intensive the questionnaire and field techniques. In addition to eir work was rechecked by the senior SI staff, in order fieldwork.
e subject to a 3% margin of error.
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION
AREA Uduvil (Valikamam S.) Chankanai (Valikamam W.) Tellippalai (Valikamam N.) Kopay (Valikamam E.) Sandilippai (Valikamam S.W.) Nallur Maruthankerny (Vadamarachchi E) Karaveddi (Vadamarachchi S.W.) Point Pedro (Vadamarachchi N) Chavakachcheri (Thenmarachchi)
DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
SEX (%) Male 40.5 Female 59.5 299
AGE (%) 15 – 25 yrs 15.7 26 – 35 yrs 19.4 36 – 45 yrs 19.7 46 – 55 yrs 25.1 56 – 65 yrs 19.1 299
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ii affna
A TOTAL ) 30 W.) 30 N.) 30 .) 30 m S.W.) 30 30 marachchi 20
chchi S.W.) 30 rachchi N) 40 marachchi) 29
299
ION
(%) 40.5 59.5 299
(%) 15.7 19.4 19.7 25.1 19.1 299
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Page 19
For further information please
Shamindrini Sivananthan or Prad
Social Indicator
Centre for Policy Alternativ
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
Tel: +94 11 2370472 Email: cpapoll@di
Fax: +94 11 2370475 Web: http://ww

information please contact:
Sivananthan or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator
e for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
2 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net
475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Page 20
Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social
which conducts polls on socio-economic and
Operating under the Board of Directors of
Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in S
filled a longstanding vacuum for a perman
independent polling facility in Sri Lanka o
issues.
Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a
silent majority of the public can express the
affecting them. Our mission is to conduct
issues, thereby providing a means through
can influence the public policy debate.
Published by:
Social Indicator
Centre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
Tel: +94 11 2370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net
Fax: +94 11 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

independent social research organisation,
socio-economic and political issues.
ard of Directors of the Centre for Policy
as established in September 1999, and
cuum for a permanent, professional and
ility in Sri Lanka on social and political
of empowerment, a means by which the
blic can express their opinions on issues
ssion is to conduct surveys on key social
g a means through which public opinion
policy debate.
by:
ator
Policy Alternatives
ane,
,
1 2370472 Email: iamond.lanka.net
1 2370475 Web:
.cpalanka.org