கவனிக்க: இந்த மின்னூலைத் தனிப்பட்ட வாசிப்பு, உசாத்துணைத் தேவைகளுக்கு மட்டுமே பயன்படுத்தலாம். வேறு பயன்பாடுகளுக்கு ஆசிரியரின்/பதிப்புரிமையாளரின் அனுமதி பெறப்பட வேண்டும்.
இது கூகிள் எழுத்துணரியால் தானியக்கமாக உருவாக்கப்பட்ட கோப்பு. இந்த மின்னூல் மெய்ப்புப் பார்க்கப்படவில்லை.
இந்தப் படைப்பின் நூலகப் பக்கத்தினை பார்வையிட பின்வரும் இணைப்புக்குச் செல்லவும்: Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna 2004.02

Page 1
PEACE CONFIDENCE IN JAFFNA
SOCIAL IND
© Social Indicator, February 2

ACE CONFIDENCE INDEX –
FNA
SOCIAL INDICATOR
February 2004
cial Indicator, February 2004

Page 2
This report was prepared with funds provided by:
The U.S. Agency for International Development under the Of Sri Lanka

provided by:
evelopment under the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI)

Page 3
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
INTRODUCTION
The Peace Confidence Index (PCI) is a bi- monthly survey conducted in order to capture the changing trends in public opinion on the peace process and related issues. While the survey has been conducted in 22 administrative districts of Sri Lanka from its inception, it was not possible to extend the survey to the Jaffna peninsula till July 2002 due to the situation that prevailed at the time. Since July 2002, SI has been conducting the PCI bi-monthly in Jaffna except for three waves (February, April and June 2003).
Social Indicator (SI), the polling unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) conducted the fourth consecutive wave of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) – Jaffna in February 2004 in Jaffna.
The PCI most of Confiden are spec fieldwork the 24 Nallur, Kayts D questionn to-face selected s
This repo by the Developm Initiative
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
▪ In February 2004, over half (53.3%) the people in J their quality of life has improved, while 38.5% say that
▪ 66.2% believe that that quality of life for most Sr ceasefire.
▪ An overwhelming majority (80.6%) of the people say is peace and unity in the country.
▪ When asked what their main fears about the future is, state that they are scared of displacement.
▪ 64.7% express uncertainty when asked when they settlement in Sri Lanka.
▪ The percentage of people who believe in peace talks having peace in Sri Lanka, has decreased from 90% February 2004.
▪ In February 2004, there is a decline in opinion that co the reason for a lack of a solution to the war, from 3 On the other hand, a majority (26.2%) state that they a solution to the war for the last 15 odd years.
▪ When asked how confident they were in the peace pr 0 means No Confidence At All, 5 means Somewh Confident, the people of Jaffna score a mean of 5.46.
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004

Page 1 affna
is a bi- capture on the hile the in 22 from its tend the ly 2002 e time. ting the or three
.
t of the (CPA) e of the affna in
The PCI – Jaffna questionnaire comprises of most of the questions contained in the Peace Confidence Index (PCI), and some of which are specific to the Jaffna situation. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted from the 24th February to 10th March 2004 in the Nallur, Valikammam, Vadamarachchi and Kayts Divisional Secretariats. A structured questionnaire was administered through face- to-face interviews amongst a randomly selected sample of 301 respondents.
This report was prepared with funds provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development under the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI) Sri Lanka
f (53.3%) the people in Jaffna state that since the ceasefire, oved, while 38.5% say that it is about the same.
ality of life for most Sri Lankans has improved since the
(80.6%) of the people say that their main hope for the future
ntry.
fears about the future is, 40.3% say that it is war, while 18% displacement.
when asked when they think there will be a permanent
ho believe in peace talks as a means of ending the war and has decreased from 90% in December 2003 to 76.8% in
decline in opinion that corrupt military and political leaders is lution to the war, from 32.8% in December 2003 to 11.8%. ity (26.2%) state that they don’t know why there has not been
last 15 odd years.
they were in the peace process, on a ten – point scale, where t All, 5 means Somewhat Confident and 10 means Very fna score a mean of 5.46.
y 2004

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
▪ The belief that total victory can be achieved by on 13.7% in December 2003 to 25.5% in February 200
▪ There is a decline from 73.2% in December 2003 t who are of the opinion that an international third solve the North East war in Sri Lanka.
▪ In February 2004, there is a notable decline in opini the need for India’s involvement in the Sri Lank December 2003 to 28.5%.
▪ When asked about the longevity of the ceasefire uncertainty from 52.5% in December 2003 to 64 who say that it will not last for more than anothe December 2003 to 3.9% in February 2004.
▪ There is a decline in the view that the SLMM is ceasefire agreement from 64.8% in December 2003
▪ 55.9% of the people of Jaffna who are aware that on the 20th of January 2004, forming an alliance, negative impact on the country.
▪ A majority (62%) of the people are not aware o Churches of ‘unethical conversions’. However, 48 on Christian places of worship.
▪ 55.7% and 50.3% of people are somewhat interest the country and the North, respectively.
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ry can be achieved by one of the parties has increased from to 25.5% in February 2004.
3.2% in December 2003 to 64.7% in February 2004, in those hat an international third party’s involvement is essential to in Sri Lanka.
a notable decline in opinion amongst the people of Jaffna of lvement in the Sri Lankan peace process, from 42.5% in .
ngevity of the ceasefire agreement, there is an increase in in December 2003 to 64.6% in February 2004, while those ast for more than another year has decreased from 13% in n February 2004.
view that the SLMM is impartial in its monitoring of the 64.8% in December 2003 to 51.5% in February 2004.
affna who are aware that the SLFP and JVP signed an MoU 004, forming an alliance, are of the view that it will have a untry.
people are not aware of the allegations against Christian nversions’. However, 48.3% are aware of the recent attacks ship.
ple are somewhat interested in the political developments of
, respectively.
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
CONFIDENCE IN PEACE
In February 2004, a majority (53.3%) of the people of Jaffna improved, while 38.5% state that it is about the same. On the worse.
Since the ceasefire, would you say your qu
60
53.3
50
40
38.5
%
30
20
10
8.1
0
Has improved Is about the same Has got wo
When asked about the quality of life for most Sri Lankans, 6 opinion that it has improved since the ceasefire. 16.2 say that it i
Since the ceasefire, do you think that the qua
most Sri Lankans...
70
66.2
60
50
%
40
30
20
16.2
10
7.3
0
Has improved Is about the
same
Has got wor
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) of the people of Jaffna say that the quality of their life has about the same. On the other hand, 8.1% say that it has got
ould you say your quality of life...
5
8.1
0.1
e same Has got worse Don't know/Not
sure
for most Sri Lankans, 66.2% of the respondents are of the ceasefire. 16.2 say that it is about the same.
you think that the quality of life for t Sri Lankans...
.2
7.3
10.3
ut the me
Has got worse Don't know/not
sure
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT
A majority (64.7%) of the people express uncertainty when as permanent settlement in Sri Lanka. However, 17.5% are of th 12.2% say that it will take some time.
When do you think there wil be a permanent
Sri Lanka?
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
17.5
12.2 10
5.6
0
Soon Will take some
time
In February 2004, while a majority (76.8%) believe in Peace Ta having peace in Sri Lanka, this perception shows a decline fr other hand, there is an increase in those who say they don’t kno 11.7% in February 2004. When looking at the gender breakdo (72.8%) believe in Peace Talks, while the percentage of wom much higher (16.1%) when compared to male opinion (2%).
How do you think we can end the war a Sri Lanka? [Multiple Answ
9
2.8 3.6
2
Never
100 90
89.3
91
82.2
85
88.6
80 70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10 0
1.7 2.3
2.2
0.3
3.8
6.8
6
4.3
1
July '02 December
'02
October '03
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press uncertainty when asked when they think there will be a owever, 17.5% are of the opinion that it will be soon, while
wil be a permanent settlement in ri Lanka?
5.6
6.8%) believe in Peace Talks as a means of ending the war and ption shows a decline from December 2003 (90%). On the se who say they don’t know – from 4.3% in December 2003 to ng at the gender breakdown, more men (85.6%) than women e the percentage of women who say that they don’t know is
to male opinion (2%).
64.7
some Never Don't know
we can end the war and have peace in
nka? [Multiple Answers]
85
88.6
90
76.8
4.3 3.6
2
LTTE defeating the Government Peace talks
6.8
6
11.7
Don't know
1.3
October '03
2.1
February '04
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
The view that corrupt military and political leaders is the reason the last 15 years shows a notable decline from 32.8% in Decem The majority (26.2%) of the people of Jaffna say that they do solution to the war for the last 15 years. In addition, 22.6% solution is that war is necessary for people in power.
Why do you think there hasn't been a solu
odd years ? [Multiple A
70
60
57.3
59.1
50
31.5
25.5
15.
0.3 July '02 December '02 October '03 F
In February 2004, the view that total victory can be achieved from 13.7% in December 2003, to 25.5%, while 36.9% hold th say that they are unsure.
42.3
40 %
30
22.8
28.3
32.8
Can total victory be achieved by one of
11.4
27.9
18.1
3.4
29.
20
19.8
14.9 16.6
14
24.1
20.5
20.8
10
5.3
10.4 12.4
12 5
0
9.7
9.4
12.7
14.7 8.8
14.3
10.4 5.7
0.7 1.2
1.6
2.3
6.7
3.7
70
62.2
60
50
48.8
47.4
48.5 50.3
%
40
27.8 30.3 30
20
30
27.9
20
17
21.5
21.1
10
15.9
0
July '02 December '02 October '03
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itical leaders is the reason for a lack of a solution to the war for ine from 32.8% in December 2003 to 11.8% in February 2004. of Jaffna say that they don’t know why there has not been a ears. In addition, 22.6% state that the reason for a lack of a ople in power.
re hasn't been a solution to the war for the last 15 dd years ? [Multiple Answers]
Corrupt military and political leaders
42.3
No political will
8.3
25.5
32.8
29.8
26.2
LTTE does not want peace
The Government does not 24.1
20.8
22.6
want peace
14.3 12.4
20.5
10.4
15.1
11.8
War is necessary for people in power
lack of unity and 0.3
understanding
October '03 February '04
Don't know
l victory can be achieved by one of the parties, has increased .5%, while 36.9% hold the opposite view. 35.8% of the people
e achieved by one of the parties?
13.7
21.5
12 .4 6.7
1.6
5
3.7
9.5
2.3
8.3 4.7
48.5 50.3
36.9 30
27.9
46.2
21.5
Yes 40.1
35.8
No
21.1
25.5
Not sure
October '03 February '04
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
LEVEL OF TOLERANCE AND PLURALISM
In February 2004, though a majority (64.5%) of the people stat together, it is a slight decrease from December 2003 (67.9% question across the six Divisional Secretariats surveyed, an ove Nallur (93.3%) believe that all ethnic communities can live toge (66.7%), Sandilippai (66.7%), Chankanai (56.7%) and Kayts majority (53.3%) of the people are of the opposite opinion.
Do you think all the ethnic communities
80
71.2
70
58.5
61.3
63.8
67.1
60
50
%
40
30
27.2
24.1
23.1
23.5
20
14.4
10
8.7 7.2
0
5.4
6.2
8
10
6.4
4.1
5.9
2.7
July '02 December '02 October '03
T
HE PEACE PROCESS AND INTERNATIONAL THIRD PAR
64.7% of the people believe that an international third party’s war is essential. However, this trend in opinion shows a steady to 73.2% in December 2003 and 64.7% in February 2004. The impact has increased from 2.3% in December 2003 to 10.9% in
What is your opinion of the need for an in
involvement to solve the North East
90
78.8
81.5 80
69.6
73.1
70
65.8
73.2
60
%
50
40
30
20
12.7
10
7 13.3
8.4
7.8
18.1 8.5
8.7
3.7
2.3 2.3
July '02 December '02 October '03 Fe
14
0
6.4
5
3.1
7.2
5.4
5
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LISM
64.5%) of the people state that all ethnic communities can live December 2003 (67.9%). Looking at the response to this retariats surveyed, an overwhelming majority of the people of ommunities can live together, when compared with Tellippalai anai (56.7%) and Kayts (64%). In the DS of Karaveddi, a he opposite opinion.
e ethnic communities can live together?
63.8
67.1 67.9
64.5
23.1
23.5
21.4
23
1
2.7
ATIONAL THIRD PARTY INVOLVEMENT
nternational third party’s involvement to solve the North East n opinion shows a steady decline since October 2003 (81.5%), % in February 2004. The perception that it will add a positive cember 2003 to 10.9% in February 2004.
Yes No Never Don't know
7.2
6.4 7.9 5.9 5.4 5.4
3.9
'02 October '03 February '04
of the need for an international third party's solve the North East war in Sri Lanka ?
81.5
5.8
73.2
64.7
8.5 7.2
2.3 2.3
Is essential Will add a positive impact Is not essential Don't know/Not sure 18.1
16.6 8.7
5.4
5 10.9
4.9
October '03 February '04
y 2004

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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
When asked about Norwegian involvement in the Sri Lankan p Jaffna approve of Norway assisting in the Sri Lankan peace proc decline since in December 2003 (80.9%).
Please tell me if you approve or disap assisting in the Sri Lankan peac
100 90 80
81.9
74
87.8
81.8
86.2
80.9
70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10
5.7 7.7 0
3.3 14.9
8.4 8.8
2.5 2.8
0.6 8.8
4.9 4.2
8.7 3.7 1.3 15.1
2
1.7
July '02 December '02 October '03 Feb
Approval of Norway continuing to assist in the Sri Lankan pe February 2004 as in December 2003.
Please tell me if you approve or d continuing to assist in the Sri La
90
84.1
78.2
83.2
80
70
62.8
60
%
50
40
30
3.4 1.9 20
15.5
6.8
10.7
0
4.6
33
October '02 August '03 Decem
10 9.8 10
6.2
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Page 7 affna
ment in the Sri Lankan peace process, 76.8% of the people of the Sri Lankan peace process. This approval, however, shows a
).
you approve or disapprove of Norway
the Sri Lankan peace process ?
81.8
86.2
80.9
76.8
Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
8.8 8.7 15.1
16.7
Disapprove
4.9 4.2 3.7 1.3 2
1.7
2.2
Don't know/Not sure October '03 February '04
ssist in the Sri Lankan peace process remains high (77.8%) in
e if you approve or disapprove of Norway to assist in the Sri Lankan peace process ?
77.8
33
4.3
78.2
83.2
76.6
6.8 4.7 4.6
2.3
0.7 Approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
.8
10.7
16.1 17.2
Don't know/Not sure
gust '03 December '03
4.4
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
In February 2004, there is a significant decline in opinion that th Sri Lankan peace process is essential from 42.5% in December similar increase can be seen in those who say that they don’t India’s involvement in the Sri Lankan peace process – from 13 February 2004.
What is your opinion of the need for Ind
Sri Lankan peace proce
50
4 40
36.8
38.1
33.8
32.6
38.3
30 %
20
23.1
12
9
23.8
30.3
29.3
24.2
26.1
14.2
14.1
14.7
15.4
13.7
10
13.9 11.6 6.8 7.5
5.9
13
12.8 6
1 6
0
3.3
1.9
2.2
4.2 1.7 1 July '02 December '02 October '03 F
CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT
64.6% of the people of Jaffna are uncertain about the longevit The view that the CFA will not last for more than anothe December 2003 to 3.9% in February 2004.
What do you think of the longevity of t
agreement ?
70
60
52.5
31.5
3.9
August '03 October '03 December
'03
64.6
50
45.3
52.3
%
40
30
40.1
33.2 29.8
20
14 14.4 13 10
0
February '04
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Page 8 affna
t decline in opinion that the need for Indian involvement in the rom 42.5% in December 2003 to 28.5%. On the other hand, a who say that they don’t know or are unsure of the need for peace process – from 13.7% in December 2003 to 28.3% in
n of the need for India's involvement in the ri Lankan peace process ?
0.8
certain about the longevity of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). st for more than another year has decreased from 13% in 004.
Is essential
Will add a positive impact
Will have no impact
Will add a negative impact
Is not essential
Don't know/Not sure
k of the longevity of the ceasefire
agreement ?
31.5
3.9
42.5
32.6 38.3
28.5 9.3
24.2
26.1
28.3 26.4 14.7
15.4
13.7
.9
13
12.8 6
10.7 6
10.3 2.8 4.2 1.7 1 October '03 February '04
The ceasefire 64.6
agreement will last for 52.5
more than another year
29.8
The ceasefire agreement will not last
13
for more than another year
Don't know/Not sure cember
'03
February '04
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
S
RI
L
ANKA
M
ONITORING
M
ISSION
Of the 81.4% who are aware of the involvement of foreign mo February 2004, 82% state that such a monitoring mission is However, as depicted in the graph below, this opinion has decl There is an increase in those who believe that it will have a pos 2003 to 9.9% in February 2004.
If "Yes", what is your opinion of the need
mission for the CFA to suc
100
90
87 88.9 88.2
84.3
90.5 91.4
80
70
60 %
50 40
30
20
10
0
2.2 5.9
3.4
1.5
4.9
4.6
5.4
3.6
2.5 3.1 3.2 2
July '02 December
October '02
'03
Though a majority (51.5%) are of the view that the Sri Lan impartial in its monitoring of the CFA in February 2004, it i 64.8% in December 2003. Uncertainty with regard to the SLM trend from 3.6% in October 2003 and 11.1% in December 2003
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Miss
monitoring of the ceasefire
70
63.7
60
57.2
64.8
45.8
5
17.4
1 14.7
2.8
July '02 December
'02
52.4
47 50
40 %
30
22.9
8.4 0
22.7 20
10.7
16.7
19.1
16
16.9
8.8
19.3
2
10
8
13.3
3.6
11.1 4.9
6
October '03
Februa
'04
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Page 9 affna
nvolvement of foreign monitors in monitoring the ceasefire in a monitoring mission is essential for the CFA to succeed. low, this opinion has declined from 91.4% in December 2003. ieve that it will have a positive impact from 2.5% in December
r opinion of the need for such a monitoring ion for the CFA to succeed ?
84.3
90.5 91.4
82
Is essential
Will have a positive impact
5.4
3.6
2.5
9.9
Don't know/Not sure
3.1 3.2 2
October '03
he view that the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) is A in February 2004, it is a notable decline in opinion from y with regard to the SLMM’s impartiality shows an increasing 11.1% in December 2003 to 27% in February 2004.
nka Monitoring Mission is impartial in its ring of the ceasefire agreement.
64.8
51.5
15.2
2.8
4.2
February '04
2.4
17.4
.7
47
Agree
6.9
19.3
27
Neither agree nor disagree
3.6
Disagree
October
Don't know/Not sure
'03
11.1 4.9
6.3
February '04
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
When asked about the effectiveness of the SLMM in its monito is. However, this opinion is a decline from December 2003 (56.6
I think the Sri Lanka Monitoring Missio
monitoring of the ceasefire a
70
60
60.7
56.6
50
46.5
44.3
4
40
35.9
42.6
%
30
26.8
22.5
14.4 22 20.1
10.7
1
7
5 0
July '02 December '02 October '03 February
F
EDERALISM
In February 2004, of the 33.3% of the people of Jaffna who hav (73.5%) believe that federalism is the best way of governing this
I believe federalism is the best way of go
this country
73.5
3.5 3.6
0
24.1
21
21.8
25.4
16
2
20
17.3 11.4 16.7
8.4
9.9 10
13.1
80
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
Disagree
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Page 10 affna
f the SLMM in its monitoring of the CFA, 49.9% agree that it rom December 2003 (56.6%).
ka Monitoring Mission is effective in its ing of the ceasefire agreement.
56.6
49.9 42.6
Agree
22.5
25.4
26.9
20.1
17.3
7
5.9
people of Jaffna who have heard about Federalism, a majority est way of governing this country.
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree .3
10.7 13.1
Don't know/Not sure
tober '03 February '04
is the best way of governing his country
3.6
18.6
ree nor ee
Disagree Don't know/Not
sure
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
Of those who are aware of Federalism, a majority (39.7%) are u secession. However, 34.8% of the people disagree that federalism are of the opinion that it will.
I think federalism will lead to seces
50
40
34.8
30 %
20
17.7
10
7
0
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
In February 2004, of those who are aware of Federalism, 68.6% every community, while 16.9% say that they don’t know or are u
Federalism will be fair by every
68.7
0.9 0
Disagree
80
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
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Page 11 affna
, a majority (39.7%) are unsure whether Federalism will lead to ple disagree that federalism will lead to secession, while, 17.7%
lism will lead to secession
34.8
ware of Federalism, 68.6% agree that federalism will be fair by t they don’t know or are unsure.
39.7
gree nor gree
Disagree Don't know/Not
sure
m will be fair by every community
0.9
16.9
ither agree nor
disagree
12.8
Disagree Don't know/Not
sure
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Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
Of those who are aware of Federalism, a majority (85.1%) of th agree with federalism if it is approved by a majority of Sri Lanka
I will agree with federalism if it is ap
majority of Sri Lankans
90
85.1
80 70 60
%
50 40 30 20 10
2.7 0
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
While 34.6% of those aware of Federalism feel that people are federalism, 22.8% are of the opinion that they are. However, a know or are unsure whether people are being adequately inform
I think people are being adequately info
federalism
22.8
3.7
Dis
50
40
34.6
30 %
20
10
0
Agree Neither agree nor
disagree
Disagr
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004

Page 12 affna
, a majority (85.1%) of the people of Jaffna state that they will by a majority of Sri Lankans.
th federalism if it is approved by a ajority of Sri Lankans
2.7 2.6
8.8
her agree nor
Disagree Don't know/Not disagree
sure
alism feel that people are not being adequately informed about that they are. However, a majority (38.1%) say that they don’t e being adequately informed about Fedaralsim.
eing adequately informed about
federalism
.7
38.1
gree nor gree
34.6
Disagree Don't know/Not
sure
y 2004

Page 15
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
SLFP – JVP A
LLIANCE
51.7% of the people of Jaffna are aware that the SLFP and January 2004, forming an alliance. When asked about the impac a majority (55.9%) perceive that it will have a negative impa uncertain about its impact.
What in your opinion will be the impa alliance on the country?
60
5
50
40
%
30
7.3
4.3
0
Will have a positive impact
A similar proportion (56.5%) further believe that the new allian peace process. 29.1% say that they don’t know or are uncertain on the peace process.
What in your opinion will be the impact the peace process
9.5
3.4
0
20
10
Will have no impact Will h
negativ
60
50
40
%
30
20
10
Will have a positive impact
Will have no impact Wil
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004

Page 13 affna
ware that the SLFP and JVP signed an MoU on the 20th of en asked about the impact of this new alliance on the country, ill have a negative impact on the country, while 30.8% are
inion will be the impact of this new ance on the country?
4.3
believe that the new alliance will have a negative impact on the n’t know or are uncertain about the impact of this new alliance
55.9
30.8
ve no impact Will have a
negative impact
Don't know/Not sure
on will be the impact of this new alliance in
the peace process?
3.4
56.5
29.1
have no impact Will have a negative
impact
Don't know/Not sure
y 2004

Page 16
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
U
NETHICAL CONVERSIONS
In February 2004, a majority (62%) of the people of Jaffna a Christian Churches of ‘Unethical Conversions’. Of those who Christian Churches of ‘Unethical Conversions’, a notable major negative impact on inter-religious harmony.
If yes, what in your opinion will the allegations be on inter-religiou
80
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
1.9
7.1
0
Will have a positive
Will have no impact Will h impact
Of those who aware of the allegations against Christian church believe them, while 34.2% state that they do not believe these all
Please tell me do you believe the
50
43.9
40
34.2
30 %
20
10
0
I believe them I do not believe
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Page 14 affna
of the people of Jaffna are unaware of the allegations against nversions’. Of those who are aware of the allegations against versions’, a notable majority (69.4%) believe that it will have a
ony.
your opinion will the impact of these s be on inter-religious harmony?
7.1
s against Christian churches of ‘Unethical Conversions’, 43.9%
ey do not believe these allegations.
69.4
19.7
have no impact Will have a negative
impact
Don't know/Not sure
me do you believe these allegations?
34.2
20.9
I do not believe them Don't know/not sure
y 2004

Page 17
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
Half (50.5%) of those who are aware of the allegations agai conversions state that there is a problem of unethical conversi there is a problem.
A majority (66.2%) of those who agree that there is a problem view that something should be done about it, while 20.7% do don’t know.
Is there a problem of unethical conve
60
50.5 50
39.9 40
%
30
20
10
0
Yes No
If you agree that there is a proble conversions, do you think somethin
about it?
70
66.2
60 50
%
40 30
20.7 20 10 0
Yes No
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Page 15 affna
re of the allegations against Christian Churches of unethical lem of unethical conversions. However, 39.9% do not believe
em of unethical conversions?
39.9
9.6
No Don't know/not sure
e that there is a problem of ‘Unethical Conversions’ are of the about it, while 20.7% do not believe so. 13.1% are unsure or
that there is a problem of unethical o you think something should be done
about it?
20.7
13.1
No Don't know/not sure
y 2004

Page 18
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
A majority (49%) of the people of Jaffna are unaware of the pro conversions.
Are you aware of a proposed legisla unethical conversions
60
50
49
40
34.3
%
30
20
10
0
Yes No
Of those who are aware of proposed legislation to prevent une it while 40.8% disapprove.
If yes, please tell me whether you ap of this proposed legisl
50
44.9 45
40.8 40 35 30 %
25 20 15 10 5 0
Approve Disapprov
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Page 16 affna
na are unaware of the proposed legislation to prevent unethical
of a proposed legislation to prevent nethical conversions?
49
14.7
No Don't know/not sure
legislation to prevent unethical conversions, 44.9% approve of
ll me whether you approve or disapprove f this proposed legislation?
40.8
6.3
Disapprove Don't know/not sure
y 2004

Page 19
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
ATTACKS ON CHURCHES
In February 2004, 48.3% of the people of Jaffna state that the Christian places of worship. Of those who are aware of the r worship, a majority (61.8%) are of the opinion that the Presid deal with these attacks.
Do you think that the President ha
action to deal with these a
70
61.8 60
50
40 %
30
20
10
6.8
0
Yes No
When asked whether the Prime Minister has taken effective act of the people say that he has not, while 11% are of the opinion t
Do you think that the Prime Minister h
effective action to deal with these a
60
50
48.8
40
%
30
20
11 10
0
Yes No
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Page 17 affna
le of Jaffna state that they are aware of the recent attacks on e who are aware of the recent attacks on Christian places of e opinion that the President has not taken effective action to
that the President has taken effective n to deal with these attacks?
61.8
31.4
No Don't know/not sure
ter has taken effective action to deal with these attacks, 48.8% e 11% are of the opinion that he has.
t the Prime Minister has taken n to deal with these attacks?
48.8
40.2
No Don't know/not sure
y 2004

Page 20
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
51.9% are of the view that the Inspector General of Police (IG deal with these attacks, while 42.2% say that they don’t know or
Do you think that the Inspector General o (IGP) has taken effective action to deal w
attacks?
60
51.9 50
40
%
30
20
10
5.8
0
Yes No
D
ISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT
An overwhelming majority (91%) of the people of Jaffna are a on the 7th of February 2004 and the decision to hold elections on
Are you aware of the dissolution o the 7th of February 2004 and the d elections on the 2nd of Apr
9
91
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Page 18 affna
ctor General of Police (IGP) has not taken effective action to y that they don’t know or are unsure.
e Inspector General of Police ctive action to deal with these
attacks?
51.9
42.2
No Don't know/not sure
the people of Jaffna are aware of the dissolution of parliament
cision to hold elections on the 2nd of April 2004.
e of the dissolution of parliament on bruary 2004 and the decision to hold ons on the 2nd of April 2004?
9
Yes No
91
y 2004

Page 21
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
When asked about the impact of a general election on the peace know or are unsure. However, 22.7% are of the view that it wil state the opposite.
In your opinion, what impact will a g have on the peace proce
70
60
50
%
40
30
22.7 20
10
3.7
0
Will have a positive impact
P
OLITICAL KNOWLEDGE
In February 2004, over half (55.7%) of the people of Jaffna say the political developments of the country. 16.7% state that they that they are not at all interested in the political developmen higher amongst women (23.3%) than men (16.5%).
How interested are you in the political d
the country?
16.7
Will have no impact
Wi nega
60
55.7
50
40
%
30
2 20
10
0
Very interested Somewhat interested
Not at all
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Page 19 affna
neral election on the peace process, 61.3% say that they do not are of the view that it will have a positive impact, while 12.3%
, what impact will a general election e on the peace process?
3.7
f the people of Jaffna say that they are somewhat interested in ntry. 16.7% state that they are very interested, while 21.2% say the political developments of the country. This disinterest is
en (16.5%).
61.3
ill have no
impact
12.3
Will have a negative impact
Don't know/not sure
you in the political developments of
the country?
55.7
21.2
6.4
mewhat erested
Not at all interested Don't know/not sure
y 2004

Page 22
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
Though a similar percentage (50.3%) say that they are so developments of the North, it is interesting to note that a higher that they are very interested in the political developments of th (18.6%).
How interested are you in the political d
the North?
60
50.3 50
40
%
30
22.5
1 20
10
0
Very interested Somewhat interested
The findings reveal that a majority (65.7%) of the people of informed about the latest political developments taking place in not at all informed while 6.1% state that they are very inform taking place in the country.
How informed would you say you ar
political developments taking place
6.1
Not at all
70
65.7
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
0
Very informed Somewhat informed Not a
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Page 20 affna
) say that they are somewhat interested in the political sting to note that a higher proportion of women (24.2%) claim litical developments of the North when compared to the men
you in the political developments of
the North?
50.3
19.5
7.7
mewhat erested
65.7%) of the people of Jaffna state that they are somewhat elopments taking place in the country. 17.5% say that they are that they are very informed about the political developments Not at all interested Don't know/not sure
would you say you are about the latest opments taking place in the country?
65.7
17.5
10.7
ewhat informed Not at all informed Don't know/not sure
y 2004

Page 23
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
A
NNEX
M
ETHODOLOGY
The study is carried out using a structured questionnaire to-face interviews amongst a sample of 301 respond Valikamam, Vadamarachchi and Kayts Divisional Secr to these areas according to the proportion of the popu Grama Niladari Divisions (GND), the primary samplin Within the selected GND, respondents are chosen r citizens of that particular area an equal opportunity to high security areas, the enumerators are instructed to alternative GNDs. Data is weighted to reflect the po Divisional Secretariats in which the sample was surveyed
Ten field enumerators, with a minimum Advanced Le and resident in the Jaffna district, were involved in the team comprised of four women and six men, who we field training on administering the questionnaire and fie accompanied visits, 10% of their work was rechecked b to maintain the quality of the fieldwork.
The findings of this survey are subject to a 3% margin o
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004

i affna
A
NNEX
a structured questionnaire, administered through face- sample of 301 respondents. It covered the Nallur, nd Kayts Divisional Secretariats. Samples are allotted e proportion of the population in these areas and the D), the primary sampling unit, are selected randomly. respondents are chosen randomly, thereby giving all a an equal opportunity to be selected. In the case of erators are instructed to select GNDs from a list of eighted to reflect the population composition of the h the sample was surveyed.
a minimum Advanced Level educational qualification trict, were involved in the collection of data. The field en and six men, who were given a one-day intensive the questionnaire and field techniques. In addition to eir work was rechecked by the senior SI staff, in order fieldwork.
e subject to a 3% margin of error.
2004

Page 24
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
S
AMPLE
D
ISTRIBUTION
(
WEIGHTED
)
AREA Chankanai (Valikamam W.) Tellippalai (Valikamam N.) Kayts Sandilippai (Valikamam S.W.) Nallur Karaveddi (Vadamarachchi S.W.)
D
EMOGRAPHIC
D
ISTRIBUTION
(
WEIGHTED
)
SEX (%) Male 31.4 Female 68.6 301
AGE (%) 15 – 25 yrs 21.4 26 – 35 yrs 13.5 36 – 45 yrs 19.9 46 – 55 yrs 25.8 56 – 65 yrs 19.5 301
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004

ii affna
IGHTED
)
A TOTAL
W.) 51 N.) 24 16 m S.W.) 65 75 chchi S.W.) 70
301
ION
(
WEIGHTED
)
(%) 31.4 68.6 301
(%) 21.4 13.5 19.9 25.8 19.5 301
2004

Page 25
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
INCOME Below Rs 5000 Rs 5001 – Rs 10 000 Rs 10 001 – Rs 15 000 Rs 15 001 – Rs 20 000 Rs 20 001 – Rs 25 000
OCCUPATION Executives, Managerial and Administrative Professionals Professionals Technicians Travel, Restaurant, Protective Service Workers & Sales Workers Agricultural and Fisheries Workers Student Housewife Retired Business Self employed Elementary Occupations Unemployed
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004

iii affna
ME (%) 88.5 000 8.9 5 000 0.4 0 000 1.2 5 000 0.8 301
TION (%) nagerial and fessionals
1.1
0.7 0.3 nt, Protective Sales Workers
1.8
d Fisheries 11.3
12.8 40.2 1.1 1.4 2.2 ations 3.4
21.6 301
2004

Page 26
Peace Confidence Index - Jaffna
EDUCATION Cannot read & write Literate but no formal education Up to grade 5 Grade 6-9 Up to O’ Level O’ Level Up to A’ Level A’ Level Undergraduate Graduate and above
Copyright © Social Indicator February 2004

iv affna
ION (%) te 1.7 mal education 5.5
15.5 17.9 13.8 21.0 8.0 12.2 2.4 e 1.1 301
2004

Page 27
For further information please
Shamindrini Sivananthan or Prad
Social Indicator
Centre for Policy Alternativ
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
Tel: + 94 11 2370472 Email: cpapoll@d
Fax: + 94 11 2370475 Web: http://ww

information please contact:
Sivananthan or Pradeep Peiris
Social Indicator
e for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
72 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net
475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Page 28
Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social
which conducts polls on socio-economic and
Operating under the Board of Directors of
Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in S
filled a longstanding vacuum for a perman
independent polling facility in Sri Lanka o
issues.
Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a
silent majority of the public can express the
affecting them. Our mission is to conduct
issues, thereby providing a means through
can influence the public policy debate.
Published by:
Social Indicator
Centre for Policy Alternatives
105, 5th Lane,
Colombo 3,
Sri Lanka.
Tel: 370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net
Fax: 370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

independent social research organisation,
socio-economic and political issues.
ard of Directors of the Centre for Policy
as established in September 1999, and
cuum for a permanent, professional and
ility in Sri Lanka on social and political
of empowerment, a means by which the
blic can express their opinions on issues
ssion is to conduct surveys on key social
g a means through which public opinion
policy debate.
by:
ator
Policy Alternatives
ane,
,
2 Email: iamond.lanka.net
5 Web: .cpalanka.org