Page 1
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
2004 0

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2004 Election Poll–Wave I
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
CONTENTS
• I
NTRODUCTION
• M
ETHODOLOGY
• E
XECUTIVE
S
UMMARY
• V
OTER
A
SPIRATIONS
& P
OLITICAL P
ARTICIPATION
(VAPPS)
T
OP
S
TUDY
-L
INE
R
ESULTS
QUALITY OF LIFE
PERFORMANCE OF THE UNF GOVERNMEN
APPROVAL FOR ELECTIONS
VOTER BEHAVIOUR
ELECTION VIOLENCE AND MALPRACTICES
UNF VS. UPFA
PRIORITIES FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT
CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES
ELECTIONS COMMISSIONER
ELECTION MONITORS
A
NNEX

I March 5 to 12, 2004
CONTENTS
03
04
Y
05
& P
OLITICAL S
TUDY
(VAPPS)
08
UNF GOVERNMENT 10
IONS 11
12
ND MALPRACTICES 15
16
NEW GOVERNMENT 18
NGES 20
ONER 22
23
24
2004 2

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2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Introduction
Social Indicator (SI), the polling Unit of the Centre for P pre-election public opinion poll to capture public opin Parliament. Furthermore, SI believes that this study wi enabling them to focus the political debate on issues an than on rhetoric.
This report presents the basic findings of the first wave conducted throughout March 2004. The results of the n 22nd and 27th of March 2004 respectively.
SI appreciates the technical assistance of Professor W Arizona, USA and Professor Steven Finkel of the Unive the survey tool and the financial support of the Academ
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
Introduction
it of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) designed a capture public opinion in the wake of dissolution of s that this study will empower the citizen of Sri Lanka, debate on issues and policies of public concern rather
gs of the first wave of a three-wave study that is being The results of the next two surveys will be released on tively.
ance of Professor William Mishler of the University of Finkel of the University of Virginia, USA in designing pport of the Academy for Educational Development.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Methodology
This study is carried out in three waves using a structur through face-to face interviews across a countrywide sample includes respondents from 22 districts, excludin Trincomalee and Jaffna, which are not under Governm sampling technique is adopted to select the Gram systematic random sampling procedures are followed grid is used to randomly choose the respondent from and women over the age of 18 are eligible responden
A team of 50 experienced and qualified SI field enum collection and are provided with intensive training o questionnaire. The briefing for the 1st wave questionn 2004 and field work carried out from 5-12th March. The on 12th March 2004 and fieldwork for the 2 nd wave is be The briefing for the final wave will commence on the completed by 25th March. 5% of the interviews a accompanied visits and spot checks to ensure the q company policy, only the enumerators from the same respondents from respective communities.
Data set is weighted to reflect the actual ethno-geogr before data analysis. Data Analysis is done using the St (SPSS). Weighted nation-wide results are subject to a
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
Methodology
ves using a structured questionnaire. It is administered ross a countrywide sample of 1800 respondents. The 2 districts, excluding the areas of Amparai, Batticaloa, not under Government control. A multi stage stratified
select the Grama Niladari divisions (GNDs) and dures are followed to select the Household. The KISH e respondent from the selected household. Both men
eligible respondents for this study.
alified SI field enumerators are being used for data ntensive training on how to accurately execute the 1 wave questionnaire was conducted on 4th March 5-12th March. The briefing for the 2 nd wave occurred r the 2 nd wave is being conducted from 13-16th March. l commence on the 19th march and fieldwork will be f the interviews are back-checked in addition to ks to ensure the quality of the data collection. As a tors from the same community are used to interview unities.
actual ethno-geographical composition of the country is done using the Statistical Package for Social Science
lts are subject to a margin of error of +/-3%.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Executive Summary
This study identifies voter assessment of the issues tha the General Elections and thereafter by the newly elect waves, with the first wave determining voter behaviou government’s performance, the political party believed the areas identified and the issues that the voting public of the next government.
The second and third waves will capture voter developments. Some of the most important finding highlighted below.
The majority of Sri Lankan’s (63.2%) express their economic situation when compared to a year ago. W economic situation, 59% believe that it has worsened improved. Interestingly, the majority of the Tamil com economic situation of the Tamil community has impro 26.7% of the Up Country Tamil community share the community and 44% of the Muslim community indicate respective communities has worsened during the last y prevailing economic situation is reflected in 61.6% of re Living is the most important issue concerning them on
Opinion is divided regarding the UNF government’s ov years with 38.6% saying that the UNF has done a goo done a bad job. In order to identify the areas in which and unfavorably, six main areas were individually clas the Peace Process, drawing on international support, re unemployment, combating corruption and preserving l of satisfaction with the UNF’s handling of the Peace P support –with 62.7% and 51.3% respectively. With reg a high level of dissatisfaction, registering between corruption to 72.5% with regard to reducing the cost o reducing unemployment.
When questioned on the necessity of general electio agreement while 34.1% disagree. When asked whet dissolving the parliament, 49.3% agree and 40.5% disa 89% of the Sri Lankans intend on voting on April 2, 20
In identifying reasons for voting for a particular party, Lankans vote for a particular party/alliance because the country, 25.2% vote for a party because they believe t beliefs and 12.7% vote according to family loyalty and 34.6% of those who are undecided as to which party key factor in making up their minds will be a candidate UNF members are more likely to vote on the basis of lo
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
xecutive Summary
ent of the issues that they feel need to be addressed in r by the newly elected government. It consists of three ing voter behaviour based on their opinion of the UNF itical party believed to be the most capable in handling hat the voting public feel need the immediate attention
ill capture voter response to changing political t important findings from the first wave have been
2%) express their dissatisfaction with the country’s d to a year ago. When asked about their personal at it has worsened while only 17% believe it to have ity of the Tamil community (63.3%) believes that the munity has improved since last year. However, only mmunity share the same view. 69.5% of the Sinhala ommunity indicate that the economic situation of their ed during the last year. Deep disappointment w ith the ected in 61.6% of respondents stating that the Cost of
oncerning them on a daily basis.
NF government’s overall performance in the last two UNF has done a good job with 44% saying they have the areas in which the UNF has performed favorably re individually classified. These areas are handling of national support, reducing the cost of living, reducing ion and preserving law and order. There is a high level ling of the Peace Process and drawing international spectively. With regard to all the other issues, there is istering between 60.6% with regard to combating reducing the cost of living and 75.3% with regard to
of general elections at this juncture, 48.7% are in When asked whether the president was justified in gree and 40.5% disagree. The survey also reveals that
oting on April 2, 2004.
r a particular party, the survey found that 35% of Sri alliance because they believe it is best suited to run the ause they believe that no other party represents their o family loyalty and tradition. Of the people surveyed, d as to which party they will vote for indicate that the will be a candidate/party’s ability to run the country. te on the basis of loyalty and family tradition (23.7%)
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2004 Election Poll–Wave I
and UPFA voters on the basis of ideology. The vast majo will vote against a candidate involved in election violen
Given the record of past election violence and malpracti public perception and anticipation on this issue. The q agree, disagree, neither agree nor disagree with the s election, election day and its aftermath will be very vio with this statement, 20% disagree, while 13% neithe “There will be very few election malpractices in the for 2004” opinion was divided. 41% agree with the sta statement, while 20% neither agree nor disagree.
A comparative survey of the UNF and UPFA reveals that been the better party to handle the Peace Process (4 corruption, the UPFA clearly scores higher than the U 16.2% respectively. However, the majority of respond party is capable of combating corruption. The UPFA also ability to reduce the cost of living, reduce unemploym and preserve law and order. Of particular note is that lack of confidence in the ability of either party to tackl one notable exception is the Peace Process (Refer Fig
On the topic of who is best suited to run the countr Kumaratunga is best suited to run the country, 29% bel is best suited to run the country, while 23% feel that ne to run the country. The study shows that Mr. Ranil Wi Tamil, Upcountry Tamil and Muslim communities. Mrs. lies within the Sinhala community. There is a small gro Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunga is best suited to run the c undecided voters believe that neither Mr. Wickremesin suited to lead the country. Furthermore, Mrs. Kuma majority over Mr. Wickremesinghe amidst the undecid
A majority of respondents (55.2%) indicate that the to should be a reduction in the price of essential goods. 21 of the peace talks should be given priority. The mainte (CFA) receives 43.8% approval. When this is broken d UNF supporters indicate that the CFA should be ma indicate that the CFA should be maintained while 36.8% the CFA should be maintained with some adjustments indicate that the CFA should be maintained with or wi
When surveyed on proposed constitutional changes, executive presidency and 37% agree that the PR elec However, with regard to the former, 37% either have agree nor disagree. In the case of the Proportional Re figure for this category is 43%.
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
ology. The vast majority of Sri Lankans (74%) say they ed in election violence and/or malpractices.
lence and malpractice, the study attempted to capture n this issue. The question was asked whether people disagree with the statement that “The periods of pre- ath will be very violent”. The majority (67%) agrees , while 13% neither agree nor disagree. When asked lpractices in the forthcoming general election of April agree with the statement, 39% disagree with the e nor disagree.
d UPFA reveals that people clearly believe the UNF has e Peace Process (46.3%). With regard to combating s higher than the UNF. The figures being 38.1% and majority of respondents (45.6%) believe that neither ption. The UPFA also scores higher than the UNF on the reduce unemployment, provide health and education ticular note is that as many or more people indicate a ither party to tackle the aforementioned issues. The Process (Refer Fig 16).
to run the country, 34% feel that Mrs. Chandrika e country, 29% believe that Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe ile 23% feel that neither Ranil nor Chandrika is suited s that Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe is popular amongst communities. Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunga’s majority There is a small group of UNF supporters who feel that
t suited to run the country (Refer Fig 19). 37.7% of the er Mr. Wickremesinghe nor Mrs. Kumaratunga is best rmore, Mrs. Kumaratunga appears to have a slight amidst the undecided voters.
indicate that the top priority of the next government f essential goods. 21.2% believe that recommencement riority. The maintenance of the Ceasefire Agreement hen this is broken down into party affiliation, 69% of CFA should be maintained. 25.8% UPFA supporters intained while 36.8% of UPFA supporters indicate that some adjustments. In the “undecided” camp, 67.7% intained with or without adjustments.
titutional changes, 43% support the abolition of the ee that the PR electoral system should be changed. r, 37% either have no opinion, a re not sure or neither he Proportional Representation electoral system, the
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2004 Election Poll–Wave I
On the question of Sri Lanka needing a Federal Cons know/Not Sure category. Only 17% support this propo
The survey shows a high percentage of the people, who on the impartiality and efficiency of the election comm election commissioner is impartial, and 49% feel tha majority of Sri Lankans express that it is essential to ha in the forthcoming general elections and 82% Sri Lank will contribute positively to a free and fair election.
In conclusion, it is clear that whatever the outco majority of Sri Lankans want economic relief, in p reduced and the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) to hold
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
ing a Federal Constitution, 46% fall in to the Don’t
support this proposition and 26% disagree.
of the people, who express their inability to comment f the election commissioner, 41.8% believe that the , and 49% feel that he is efficient. An overwhelming
t it is essential to have both local and foreign monitors s and 82% Sri Lankans believe that this combination nd fair election.
hatever the outcome of the general election, the nomic relief, in particular the cost of living to be
ent (CFA) to hold.
2004 7

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2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Quality of Life
Fig. 1
Compared to a year ago, in your opinio situation in the country ha
Worse 63%
Fig. 2
Compared to a year ago, in your op economic situation h
Impro
17%
Worse 59%
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
ear ago, in your opinion, the economic ation in the country has ...
Improved 19%
Remains 18%
a year ago, in your opinion, your personal
economic situation has...
Improved 17%
Remains Same 24%
2004 8

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2004 Election Poll–Wave I
The Most Fig. Important 3
Compared to Issue
a year ago, the econom the ethnic group you belong to...(B
The most important issues tha
100% 70
you on a daily basis
60
90%
61.6
16.4
50
80%
40
70%
63.2
69.5
15.5
0
18.1
1.8 63.3
1.8
17.3
C
18.7
13.2 0%
National Sinhala Tamil
The most important issues tha
you on a daily basis
15.5
1.8 1.8
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
20.3
%
%
30
60%
20
50%
10
40%
13
30%
20%
g n i v i L f o
t n e m y o l
r a W t s a
h t l a e H 10%
t s o
p m
E h t
n o i t a c u d E e n U
r o N
Improved Remains Sam
Fig. 4
70
61.6 60
50
%
40
30
20
0
C
13 10
g n i v i L f o
r t n e m y o l
a W t s a
h t l a e H t s o
p m
E h t
n o i t a c u d E e n U
r o N

I March 5 to 12, 2004
Issue
a year ago, the economic situation of roup you belong to...(By Ethnicity)
t important issues that concern
you on a daily basis
16.4
20.3
44
61.7
30.8
1.8 63.3
1.8
2.7 3
11.7
0.7
h t l a e H
n o i t a c u d E
25.3 r e d r O d n a
n o i t p u r r o C
26.7
w a L
l a c i h t e n U
s n o i s r e v n o C
Tamil Muslim Up-country Tamil
Remains Same Worse
t important issues that concern
you on a daily basis
1.8 1.8
2.7 3
0.7
h t l a e H
2004 9
n o i t a c u d E
r e d r O d n
n o i t p u r r a w a L
o C
l a c i h t e n U
s n o i s r e v n o C

Page 10
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
UNF Government's Perfor
Preserving law and order
-30.1
-29.2
Combating corruption
1
-13.3
-16.8
-80 -60 -40 -20 0
% Dissatisfied
-30.5
-30.1
Drawing International Support
-15.8
-15
Reducing Unemployment
-42.2
-33.1
Reducing the Cost of Living
-39
-33.5
Handling the Peace Process
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Performance of the UNF Govern
Since the last general elections of 2001, how goo the UNF government has d
35
33
30
25.2 25
20 %
15
10
5.6 5
0
Very Good Job Good Job Bad Job
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
e of the UNF Government
tions of 2001, how good or a bad job do you think UNF government has done?
25.2
18.8
17.5
Bad Job Very Bad Job Don't know
F Government's Performance on...
.1
-29.2
20.8
7.1
5
-30.1
20.3
7.2
2.4
-13.3
38.6
24.1
40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
%
2004 10
Somewhat Satisfied
-15.8
-15
31.3
20
Highly Satisfied
-33.1
10.1
2
Somewhat Dissatisfied -33.5
14.2
Highly Dissatisfied -16.8
Satisfied

Page 11
%
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Approval for Elections
Fig. 7
Do you think that a general election is nec
40
30.2 30
20
18.5
10
7.2
0
Totally agree Somewhat Agree Neither Agree nor
Disagree
Fig. 8
Was the President justified in dissolving the Pa
35
31.6
30
25
20
18.7 %
15
10
9.3
5
0
Totally Justified Somewhat
Justified
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
Neither justified nor unjustified

I March 5 to 12, 2004
r Elections
general election is necessary at this juncture?
21.1
10 7.2
either Agree nor
Disagree
2004 11
13
Somewhat Disagree
Totally Disagree DK/NS
ed in dissolving the Parliament at this juncture?
9.3
22.3
Neither justified nor unjustified
18.2
Somewhat unjustified
Totally unjustified

Page 12
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Voter Behaviour
Fig. 9
Do you intend to vote in the forthcoming
of April 2, 2004 ?
Yes 89%
Fig. 10
What makes you vote for the Party/Allianc
40
35
30
25
%
20
15
12.7
10
9.5
5
2.9
0
I am a member
My/Family of the party
loyalty
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
Peer pressure
Pa is be run

I March 5 to 12, 2004
viour
ote in the forthcoming General Elections
of April 2, 2004 ?
No 5%
2004 12
Undecided 6%
ote for the Party/Alliance of your choice?
2.9
35
25.2
14.8
Peer pressure The
Party/Alliance is best suited to run the country
No other Party/Alliance suited to my beliefs
Other

Page 13
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Fig. 11 What makes you vote for the Party/Allia
(Breakdown, Political Party
40
37.8
3 35
31.5
30
26.5
25
23.7
%
20
15
16.4
14.8
14.1
10
10.9
9.6 11.1
9.2 6.3
5
2.8
0.9
2.9
0
UNF UPFA U
Fig. 12
Will you vote against candidates involved in v
malpractices?
Don't Know 15%
No 11%
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
ote for the Party/Alliance of your choice? kdown, Political Party-wise)
37.8
34.6
26.5
6.3
2004 13
I am a member of the party 28.6
My/Family loyalty
Peer pressure 18.4
The Party/Alliance is best .6 11.1
9.2
suited to run the country
No other Party/Alliance suited to my beliefs
0.9
2.9
Other
UPFA Undecided
andidates involved in violence and/or election
malpractices?
n't Know
15%
Yes 74%

Page 14
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Fig. 13
Will you vote against candidates involved in v
By political party ch
90
80
72.6
79.2
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
15.2
11 10
UNF UPFA
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
12.2
9.9
0

I March 5 to 12, 2004
andidates involved in violence and/or malpractices?
By political party choice
79.2
71.9
11
9.9 9.6 2004 14 18.5
UPFA Undecided
Yes
No
Don't Know

Page 15
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Election Violence and Malpractices
Fig. 14
"The periods of pre-election, election day and
violent"
Disagree 20%
Neither Agree nor Disagree 13%
Fig. 15
"There will be very few election malpractices
elections of April 2, 2
Disagree 39%
Neither Agree nor Disagree 20%
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
d Malpractices
ction, election day and its aftermath will be very
violent"
Agree 67%
election malpractices in the forthcoming general elections of April 2, 2004"
Agree 41%
Neither Agree nor Disagree 20%
2004 15

Page 16
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
UNF Vs. UPFA
Fig. 16
Please indicate one political party/alliance whi each of the following if they were to form the g
Preserving law and order of the country
Providing health and education
Combatting corruption
16.2
Reducing unemployment
Reducing cost of living
Handling of the peace process
0 5 10 15 2
%
UNF SLFP/JV
Fig. 17
In your opinion, who do you think is be
the country?
Neither 23%
Both 14%
Ranil Wickremesinghe 29%
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
PFA
litical party/alliance which you believe will best handle they were to form the government after the elections;
25.1
37.4 37.6
25.7
36.8
37.5
16.2
38.1
45.6
19.7
40
40.3
20.6
39.4 40
23.4
30.3
46.3
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
%
SLFP/JVP alliance NEITHER
o do you think is best suited to lead
the country?
either 23%
Chandrika kumaratunga 34%
anil mesinghe 9%
2004 16

Page 17
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Fig. 18
Who do you think is best suited to
(Ethnic breakdow
100
90
24.1
18.5
12
2.3
Sinhala Tamil Upcountry Tamil
Who do you think is best suited to By political party ch
10.4
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
4 80
0.8
70
0
16.1
60
50
20.4
78.5
74
40
30
20
39.4
10
10
Fig.19
100
10.4
17.1 10.7 80
6.8 0.5
60
68.6 40
75.6
20
0
UNF UPFA

I March 5 to 12, 2004
hink is best suited to lead the country?
(Ethnic breakdown)
12
16.5 4
7.1
None
Both
50.6 74
Ranil Wickremesinghe
Chandrika 25.9
Kumaratunga
10
Upcountry Tamil Muslim
ink is best suited to lead the country? By political party choice
17.1
6.8 0.5
37.7
None
Both 21.1
75.6
Ranil 18.1
Wickremesinghe
Chandrika 23.1
Kumaratunga
UPFA Undecided
2004 17

Page 18
Fig. 21
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Priorities for the New Government
Fig. 20
In your opinion, the most important issue tha attention by the newly elected party/alliance/c
general elections of 2 April
60
55.2
50
40
30
21.2
20
10
7.6
2.8
0
f o e c i r p e h t e c
s d o o g l a i t n e
t n e m y o l p m e n U
e c n e m m o c - e R
s k l a t e c a e p u
R
s s e
When it comes to the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA of the forthcoming general elections of
43.8
26.7
12.6
0
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
d e
g n i n e h t g n e r t S
y t i r u c e s l a n o i t a n
f o n o i t u c e s o r P
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Maintain CFA Maintain CFA with
adjustments
Completely Re- negotiate CFA wit
LTTE

I March 5 to 12, 2004
w Government
ost important issue that should receive immediate elected party/alliance/coalition in the forthcoming ral elections of 2 April 2004 is...
7.8
2.8
0.8 1.3
3.2
g n i n e h t g n e r t S
y t i r u c e s l a n o i
f o n o i t u c e s
s n a i c i t i l o p t p
s t n a v r e s c i l b u
s e i
g n i
t
2004 18
r e
n
P
c
a
I
A
efire Agreement (CFA), the newly elected government ng general elections of 2 April 2004 should...
12.6
4.3
r a l a s e s a e
g n i r B / g n i t s
f o
h t
w a l o
ld r o w r e d n u
s t n e m e l e
O
t a
o r
u r r o
p d n
r c n
e r r
12.6
Completely Re- negotiate CFA with LTTE
Do away with/Revoke
Don’t know/not sure CFA

Page 19
Fig. 22
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
What should the newly elected government do with the By political party choice
80
70
69
60
50
%
40
36.8
37
30
25.8
20
17.2
17.6
6.9
1.1
UNF UPFA
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
11.9 10
5.8
7.9
0

I March 5 to 12, 2004
overnment do with the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA)?
Should maintain the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA)
Should maintain the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) with some adjustments
36.8
37.6 Should completely re-negotiate
the CFA with LTTE
30.1 5.8
Should do it away / Revoke the CFA 17.6
10.7
Don't Know
2004 19
19.6
11.9
7.9
2.1
UPFA Undecided

Page 20
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Constitutional Changes
Fig. 23
"The Executive Presidency sho
Don’t know/not sure 23%
Disagree 22%
Neither agree disagree 12%
Fig. 24
"The Proportional Representatio
should be chan
Don’t know/not sure 30%
Disagree 20%
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
ges
ecutive Presidency should be abolished"
Agree 43%
Neither agree nor disagree 12%
ortional Representation (PR) Electoral System
should be changed"
Agree 37%
Neither agree nor disagree 13%
2004 20

Page 21
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Fig. 25
"Sri Lanka needs a federal co
Don’t know/not sure 46%
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
nka needs a federal constitution"
Agree 17%
sure
Neither agree nor disagree 11%
Disagree 26%
2004 21

Page 22
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Elections Commissioner
Fig.26
Impartiality of the Elections C
45
40
35
30
26.1
25 %
20
15.7 15
11.3
10
5
0
Very Impartial Somewhat
impartial
Efficiency of the Elections Co
Do not know 48%
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
Neither impartial nor unimpartial
S un
Fig. 27

I March 5 to 12, 2004
oner
ality of the Elections Commissioner
42.7
11.3
3
1.1
t Neither
impartial nor unimpartial
2004 22
Somewhat unimpartial
Very unimpartial
Don't Know
y of the Elections Commissioner
Efficient 49%
Not Efficient 3%

Page 23
Fig. 29
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Election Monitors
Fig. 28
In the forthcoming general elections, both lo
Monitors are..
Not Essential 10%
Not Sure 18%
Will both local and foreign Election Monitors co
general elections?
Will not Contribute 8%
Not Sure 10%
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
neral elections, both local and foreign Election
Monitors are..
tial
Essential 72%
n Election Monitors contribute to the forthcoming
general elections?
t Contribute
8%
Will Contribute 82%
2004 23

Page 24
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Annex
District sample (weighted) distribution in March 200
DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 13.6% Gampaha 11.3% Kalutara 6.0% Kandy 6.9% Matale 2.5% Nuwar Eliya 3.8% Galle 5.7% Hambantota 2.8% Matara 4.3% Anuradhapura 4.0% Polonnaruwa 1.9% Kurunegala 8.4% Puttlam 3.8% Badulla 3.7% Monaragala 2.0% Ratnapura 5.6% Kegalle 4.1% Amparai 2.9% Batticoloa 1.6% Trincomalee 1.0% Vavuniya .7% Jaffna 3.5% NATIONAL 100.0%
Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in March 2004
ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 82.6% Tamil 8.2% Muslim 3.7% Up-country Tamil 5.5% NATIONAL 100.0%
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
Annex
stribution in March 2004
TOTAL 13.6% 11.3% 6.0% 6.9% 2.5% 3.8% 5.7% 2.8% 4.3% 4.0% 1.9% 8.4% 3.8% 3.7% 2.0% 5.6% 4.1% 2.9% 1.6% 1.0% .7% 3.5% 100.0%
tribution in March 2004
TOTAL 82.6% 8.2% 3.7% 5.5% 100.0%
2004 24

Page 25
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Age sample (weighted) distribution in M
AGE GROUP TOTAL First Time Voters 7.5% 22-25 7.5% 26-35 22.2% 36-45 27.3% 46-55 20.4% Above 55 15.0% NATIONAL 100.0%
Gender sample (weighted) distribution in March 200
GENDER TOTAL Male 49.6% Female 50.4% NATIONAL 100.0%
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

I March 5 to 12, 2004
hted) distribution in March 2004
TOTAL 7.5% 7.5% 22.2% 27.3% 20.4% 15.0% 100.0%
stribution in March 2004
TOTAL 49.6% 50.4% 100.0%
2004 25

Page 26
2004 Election Poll–Wave I
Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social res conducts polls on socio-economic and political issu
Operating under the Board of Directors of the Ce (CPA), SI was established in September 1999, a vacuum for a permanent, professional and indepe Lanka on social and political issues.
Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a m majority of the public can express their opinions Our mission is to conduct surveys on key social i means through which public opinion can influence
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
Published by: Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alte 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Fax: +9411 2370475

I March 5 to 12, 2004
independent social research organisation, which onomic and political issues.
rd of Directors of the Centre for Policy Alternatives
in September 1999, and filled a longstanding professional and independent polling facility in Sri al issues.
of empowerment, a means by which the silent express their opinions on issues affecting them. t surveys on key social issues, thereby providing a lic opinion can influence the public policy debate.
Published by: Social Centre 105, 5th Indicator for Lane,
Policy Alternatives
Colombo Sri Lanka.
3,
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
2004 26