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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 13 to 15, 2004
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
Introduction
Social Indicator (SI), the polling Unit of the Centre for P pre-election public opinion poll to capture public opin Parliament. Furthermore, SI believes that this study wil enabling them to focus the political debate on issues and p on rhetoric.
This report presents the basic findings of the second wav conducted throughout March 2004. The results of the ne March 2004.
SI appreciates the technical assistance of Professor W Arizona, USA and Professor Steven Finkel of the Univers survey tool and the financial support of the Academy for
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 13 to 15, 2004
Introduction
t of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) designed a capture public opinion in the wake of dissolution of s that this study will empower the citizens of Sri Lanka, bate on issues and policies of public concern rather than
s of the second wave of a three-wave study that is being he results of the next survey will be released on 30th of
nce of Professor William Mishler of the University of inkel of the University of Virginia, USA in designing the of the Academy for Educational Development.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
Methodology
This study is carried out in three waves using a structure through face-to-face interviews across a countrywide sam includes respondents from 22 districts, excluding th Trincomalee and Jaffna, which are not under Governme sampling technique is adopted to select the Grama Nilad random sampling procedures are followed to select the H randomly choose the respondent from the selected house age of 18 are eligible respondents for this study.
A team of 50 experienced and qualified SI Field Research and provided with intensive training on how to accurat briefing for the 1 st wave questionnaire was conducted on out from 5-12th March. The briefing for the 2nd wave fieldwork was carried out from 13-15th March. 5% of t addition to accompanied visits and spot checks to ensure a company policy, only the Field Researchers from the sam respondents from respective communities.
Data set is weighted to reflect the actual ethno-geograph data analysis. Data Analysis is done using the Statistical Weighted nation-wide results are subject to a margin of
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 13 to 15, 2004
Methodology
es using a structured questionnaire. It is administered s a countrywide sample of 1800 respondents. The sample tricts, excluding the areas of Amparai, Batticaloa, ot under Government control. A multi stage stratified ect the Grama Niladari divisions (GNDs) and systematic lowed to select the Household. The KISH grid is used to the selected household. Both men and women over the r this study.
ed SI Field Researchers is being used for data collection on how to accurately execute the questionnaire. The e was conducted on 4 th March 2004 and fieldwork carried g for the 2nd wave occurred on 12th March 2004 and 15 March. 5% of the interviews are back-checked in ot checks to ensure the quality of the data collection. As archers from the same community are used to interview nities.
tual ethno-geographical composition of the country before using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). bject to a margin of error of +/-3%.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
Executive Summary
In this second wave of the pre election poll, attention is p current political developments.
IMPARTIALITY OF MEDIA COVERAGE BY STATE AND
Figure 1: Please state whether you feel the cur the election campaign by the following media
50
44.6 42.1
40.5
40.5 40.8 40
36.7
36.2
35.4
30
%
22.8
23.3
23.8
20
13.3
10
0
State owned TV
Private owned channels
TV channels
People were asked their perception of the impartiality o channels in their coverage of the election campaign. The r percentage of Sri Lankans believe that irrespective of the coverage of election campaigning is biased. In additi channels, a high percentage of people are unable to c private owned TV channels. People believe that radio ch coverage of election campaigning regardless of their type state owned newspapers are seen to be more biased th
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
State owned radio channels
Private owned radio channels

March 13 to 15, 2004
xecutive Summary
n poll, attention is paid to capture the public opinion on
GE BY STATE AND PRIVATE OWNED MEDIA
ether you feel the current media coverage of y the following media is partial or impartial
47.2
40.8
6.2
35.4
38.1
37.6
33.4
Impartial
23.8
24.3
Not sure 19.4
Partial
ed
Private owned
State owned
Private owned nels
radio channels
newspapers
newspapers
of the impartiality of public and privately owned media tion campaign. The results show that a marginally higher t irrespective of the type of ownership of the TV channel, is biased. In addition, compared to state owned TV ple are unable to comment on the impartiality of the believe that radio channels are more impartial in their ardless of their type of ownership. It is worth noting that o be more biased than private owned newspapers.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
CLERGY AS CANDIDATES
Figure 2: Do you approve or disapprove of clergy campaigning as candidates in the general elections? (general opinion)
Disapprove 64%
Neither approve nor
Approve disapprove
27% 9%
SPLIT IN THE LTTE
Figure 3: Impact of the LTTE's split on the Peace Proces
Negative impact 55%
No impact
19%
Positive Impact 26%
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 13 to 15, 2004
prove of clergy eneral elections?
A majority (64%) of Sri Lankans disapprove of clergy as candidates in the general elections, while in contrast, only 27% of the population approve.
ve
t on the Peace Process
Of those who are aware of the split in the LTTE, a majority believes that this split will have a negative impact on the peace process. While over one quarter of the population believe that it will have a positive impact, 19% believe that there will be no
Positive Impact 26%
impact on the peace process.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
Specifically the Up-country Tamil (77.8%) and the
Figure 4: Impact of t peace process Muslim (64.1%) communities believe that the
100%
split in the LTTE will have a negative impact.
80% The belief that
41.8 the split in the LTTE will have a positive impact
60%
53.2
on the peace process, stems mainly from the
40%
15.4 Sinhala community. 23.8% of the Tamil community
20%
believe that there
24.7
23.8
will be no impact on the peace
0%
3.2 process.
Sinhala Tamil
W
HAT SHOULD THE
G
OVERNMENT DO
?
Figure 5: Regarding the current crisis between
what do you think the Government s
40
37.5
30
26.7
20.8
%
20
10
0
Govt should intervene to reconcile
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
Govt should not
Govt should obtain intervene to
the strategic reconcile
advantage from the situation

March 13 to 15, 2004
Figure 4: Impact of the split in the LTTE on the peace process - Ethnic Perspective
Negative impact
53.2
64.1
77.8
No impact
Positive Impact
23.8
15.4
11.1
3.2
11.5
7.4
Tamil Muslim Up-country Tamil
T DO
?
urrent crisis between the two LTTE groups, ink the Government should do?
20.8
11.5
3.5
Govt should obtain
Govt should just the strategic
observe the advantage from
situation the situation
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Don’t Know/Not sure

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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
When questioned on what the government’s response sh majority (37.5%) indicates that the government should in On the other hand, 26.7% says the government should no government should just observe the situation. Meanwhi obtain strategic advantage from the situation.
When looking at the ethnic perspectives,
Figure 6: Ethnic perspectiv
in the current LTT
51.3% Muslims of and
100%
0.1 10.6 38.7% of Sinhala
90%
22 and 33.3% of Up-country Tamil
80%
24.4 communities feel that government
70%
18.1
should intervene
60%
0.8 to reconcile the split.
50%
26.3
Interestingly, 57.5% of the
40%
39.4
Tamil community
30% feel that the government
20%
38.7 should either just observe the
10%
19.7
situation or
0% simply not
Sinhala Tamil intervene at all.
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March 13 to 15, 2004
nment’s response should be to the split in the LTTE, the overnment should intervene to reconcile the two parties. overnment should not intervene while 11.5% believe the situation. Meanwhile, 20.8% want the government to situation.
6: Ethnic perspective on the role the government should play
in the current LTTE crisis within the two groups
12.5
Don’t Know/Not sure 22
22.2
12.5
18.1
7.5
14.8
Govt should just observe the situation
0.8
16.3
14.8
Govt should obtain the strategic advantage of 39.4
14.8
the situation
Govt should not intervene 51.3
to reconcile
33.3 19.7
Govt should intervene to reconcile
Tamil Muslim Up-country
Tamil
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
Figure 7: Government's role in the LTTE split -
100%
2
90%
17.1
13.1
10
80%
16.7
22.7
70%
30
11.9 60%
50%
1.4 25.6 40%
29.8
30%
38.6
20%
39.6 28.6 10%
12.9
0%
North East Rest of the
In the Eastern Province, opinion is divided as to whether t intervene to reconcile the split in the LTTE. However, in t about the government not intervening (38.6%), and the that the government should intervene to reconcile or sho situation mainly prevails amongst the people outside of t
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 13 to 15, 2004
ole in the LTTE split - Provincial Perspective
2 10
Don’t Know/Not sure
22.7
Govt should just observe the situation
25.6
Govt should obtain the strategic advantage of the situation
Govt should not intervene to
39.6
reconcile
Govt should intervene to reconcile Rest of the Island
ided as to whether the government should or should not LTTE. However, in the North, people feel more strongly g (38.6%), and their role as observers (30%). The view e to reconcile or should take strategic advantage of the e people outside of the Northern and Eastern provinces.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
WHAT SHOULD THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY D
Figure 8: What do you think the role of the international community should be in the current crisis between the two LT
groups?
40
33
30
26.3
%
20
13
10
0
Int'l Community should
Int'l Community should
Int'l Community should
Don't k intervene to reconcile
not intervene to
just observe the reconcile
situation
Figure 9: Ethnic Perspective on what
community should be in the crisis be
100%
22.1
19.8
80%
28.7
11.1 16.4
60%
12.8
13.6
27.4
27.9
40%
31.1
0%
Sinhala Tamil Muslim
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
55.6
20%
33.6

March 13 to 15, 2004
NAL COMMUNITY DO?
There is a divided
of the international s between the two LTTE
opinion with regard to the involvement of the international community in the reconciliation of the split between the two LTTE groups. 33% of people feel
27.7
that the international community should intervene to reconcile, while 26.3% feel that 13
they should not intervene at all. There is a noteworthy percentage (27.7%) of people
mmunity should
Don't know/Not sure observe the situation
who are not sure of the international role in this situation.
Perspective on what the role of the international uld be in the crisis between the two LTTE groups
1
19.8
Don't know/Not sure 33.3
11.1 4
13.6
11.1
Int'l Community should just observe
9
11.1
the situation
Int'l Community should not intervene 55.6
to reconcile 44.4 6
Int'l Community should intervene to reconcile
il Muslim Up-country Tamil
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
Compared with the other communities, 55.6% of the international community should intervene to reconcile percentage of Up-country Tamils who feel that internatio of the split in the LTTE is necessary. The Tamil (27.3%) share the same view that the international community Interestingly, the levels of uncertainty of the internatio (Sinhala – 26.7%, Tamil – 22.1%, Muslim – 19.8%, Up Co
Figure 10: Role of international community in LTTE cris
100%
18.8 19.5
28.7 80%
18.3 29
11.9 60%
26.8
26.1 40%
29
20%
35.4
33.3 23.2
0%
North East Rest of the
There is greater support for the international community situation in the Eastern province (35.4%) than in the No that the international community should not intervene to is one shared almost equally across all provinces.
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 13 to 15, 2004
ities, 55.6% of the Muslim community feel that the ervene to reconcile this split. There is also a high o feel that international involvement in the reconciliation . The Tamil (27.3%) and Sinhala (27.4%) communities ational community should not intervene to reconcile. ty of the international community’s role is quite high slim – 19.8%, Up Country Tamil – 33.3%).
ommunity in LTTE crisis - Provincial Perspective
28.7
Don't know/Not sure
11.9
Int'l Community should just observe the situation
26.1
Int'l Community should not intervene to reconcile
33.3
Int'l Community should intervene to reconcile Rest of the Island
rnational community to intervene to reconcile the LTTE .4%) than in the Northern province (23.2%). The view uld not intervene to reconcile the split in the LTTE groups all provinces.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
WILL THE CRISIS WITHIN THE LTTE GET BETTER?
Figure 11: Do you think the crisis between the tw parties will improve or worsen in the next few m
Better 13%
From the Sinhala community perspective, 52.2% are uncertain whether the situation will improve or worsen between the two LTTE groups in the future. Amongst the Tamil community the opinions are evenly divided, where 42.5% express that the situation will get better, while 41.7% think that it will worsen. Majority of the Muslim community feel that the situation will remain the same and there is a mixed opinion from the Up-country Tamil community when asked about the future of the LTTE crisis.
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
Don't kn
Worse
44%
32%
About the same
11%
Figure 12: Ethnic perspect LTTE grou
100%
80%
41.7 52.2
60%
15.7
40%
31.6
20%
42.5
6.9
9.3 0%
Sinhala Tamil

March 13 to 15, 2004
LTTE GET BETTER?
crisis between the two LTTE
The majority sen in the next few months?
(44%) of Sri Lankans express uncertainty as to whether the situation
Don't know
44%
between the two LTTE parties will improve or worsen, while 32% believe that it will worsen.
Better 13%
e 12: Ethnic perspective on whether the crisis between the two
LTTE groups will improve or worsen
1.2
3.8
9.3
inhala Tamil Muslim Up-country
Tamil
LTTE crisis.
4 11
Don't know
41.7
30.9
30.8 2.2
Worse
15.7
48.1
34.6
About the
1.6
same
6.9
42.5
19.8
30.8
Better

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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
Figure 13: Provincial perspective on whether LTTE groups will improve or wors
100%
1.4
11.8
80%
55.1
41.2
60%
40%
14.5
17.6
20%
29 29.4
0%
North East
Although a majority in the Northern and Eastern provinc two LTTE groups will worsen, the opinion is higher amon than in the east (41.2%). A majority (48.2%) of those wh are unsure of what will be the future of this crisis.
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March 13 to 15, 2004
rspective on whether the crisis between the two
will improve or worsen by Province
11.8
48.2
41.2
Don't know
Worse
17.6
30.5
About the same
Better
29.4
9.9
11.4
East Rest of the Island
and Eastern provinces feels that the crisis between the inion is higher amongst the people in the North (55.1%) (48.2%) of those who live outside of these two provinces
of this crisis.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
UNF VS. UPFA
Figure 14: Which party do you feel is most capa
issues?
Preserving law and order
3 18.1
Providing health and education
28.3
32.6
0 10 20 30 %
The peace process apart, people have more faith in the U than in the UNP’s. It is interesting that there is an increa capable of handling the issues mentioned when compare
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
36 20.2
Combating corruption
36 14.2
Reducing Unemployment
36 19.4
Reducing the cost of living
35. 18.5
Handling of the peace process

March 13 to 15, 2004
you feel is most capable of handling the following
issues?
45.1 36.8 8.1
43.2
NEITHER
36.6 20.2
49.6 36.2
UPFA
44.2 36.4 19.4
46.2
UNF
35.4 8.5
39.1 28.3
32.6
0 30 40 50 60
%
e more faith in the UPFA’s ability to handle other issues at there is an increase in the view that neither party is oned when compared with the figures of the first wave.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 2
Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social which conducts polls on socio-economic and po Operating under the Board of Directors of Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in Septem longstanding vacuum for a permanent, profess polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and politic Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a me majority of the public can express their opinio them. Our mission is to conduct surveys on ke providing a means through which public opin
public policy debate.
Published by: Social Centre 105, Colombo Sri Lanka.
5th Indicator for Lane, 3,
Policy Alternatives
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: cpapo Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http:/
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 13 to 15, 2004
an independent social research organisation, n socio-economic and political issues.
Board of Directors of the Centre for Policy as established in September 1999, and filled a for a permanent, professional and independent nka on social and political issues. t of empowerment, a means by which the silent can express their opinions on issues affecting to conduct surveys on key social issues, thereby rough which public opinion can influence the
Alternatives
472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
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