கவனிக்க: இந்த மின்னூலைத் தனிப்பட்ட வாசிப்பு, உசாத்துணைத் தேவைகளுக்கு மட்டுமே பயன்படுத்தலாம். வேறு பயன்பாடுகளுக்கு ஆசிரியரின்/பதிப்புரிமையாளரின் அனுமதி பெறப்பட வேண்டும்.
இது கூகிள் எழுத்துணரியால் தானியக்கமாக உருவாக்கப்பட்ட கோப்பு. இந்த மின்னூல் மெய்ப்புப் பார்க்கப்படவில்லை.
இந்தப் படைப்பின் நூலகப் பக்கத்தினை பார்வையிட பின்வரும் இணைப்புக்குச் செல்லவும்: The Srilankan Voter and the April 2004 Election 2004.03.24

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2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 24 to 26, 2004
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
Introduction
Social Indicator (SI), the polling Unit of the Center for P pre-election public opinion poll to capture public opin Parliament. Furthermore, SI believes that this study w i enabling them to focus the political debate on issues an than on rhetoric.
This report presents the basic findings of the third and that is being conducted throughout March 2004.
SI appreciates the technical assistance of Professor W Arizona, USA and Professor Steven Finkel of the Unive the survey tool and the financial support of the Acade
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 24 to 26, 2004
Introduction
it of the Center for Policy Alternatives (CPA) designed a capture public opinion in the wake of dissolution of s that this study w ill empower the citizen of Sri Lanka, debate on issues and policies of public concern rather
ngs of the third and final wave of a three-wave study
March 2004.
ance of Professor William Mishler of the University of Finkel of the University of Virginia, USA in designing pport of the Academy for Educational Development.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
Methodology
This study is carried out in three waves using a structure through face-to face interviews across a countrywide sample includes respondents from 22 districts, excludin Trincomalee and Jaffna, which are not under Governme sampling technique is adopted to select the Gram systematic random sampling procedures are followed grid is used to randomly choose the respondent from and women over the age of 18 are eligible responden
A team of 50 experienced and qualified SI field enum collection and are provided with intensive training o questionnaire. The briefing for the 1st wave questionn 2004 and fieldwork carried out from 5th-12th March. The on 12th March 2004 and fieldwork was carried out from 3rd wave occurred on 23rd March and fieldwork carried interviews are back-checked in addition to accompanie the quality of the data collection. As a company polic same community are used to interview respondents fr
Data set is weighted to reflect the actual ethno-geogr before data analysis. Data Analysis is done using the St (SPSS). Weighted nation-wide results are subject to a
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 24 to 26, 2004
Methodology
es using a structured questionnaire. It is administered ross a countrywide sample of 1800 respondents. The 2 districts, excluding the areas of Amparai, Batticaloa, ot under Government control. A multi stage stratified o select the Grama Niladari divisions (GNDs) and dures are followed to select the Household. The KISH e respondent from the selected household. Both men
eligible respondents for this study.
alified SI field enumerators are being used for data ntensive training on how to accurately execute the 1 wave questionnaire was conducted on 4th March 5th-12th March. The briefing for the 2 nd wave occurred as carried out from 13th-15th March. The briefing of the nd fieldwork carried out on 24th-26th March. 5% of the ition to accompanied visits and spot checks to ensure As a company policy, only the enumerators from the iew respondents from respective communities.
actual ethno-geographical composition of the country is done using the Statistical Package for Social Science ults are subject to a margin of error of +/-3%.
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%
2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
Executive Summary
In the final wave of the three wave pre election poll, capture public opinion with regard to negotiations wit made for voters in LTTE controlled areas, the party be and voter behaviour.
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE LTTE
Figure 1: Should the Government of Sri Lanka rest
negotiations with LTTE after the elections?
85.3
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
4.8
9.7
Figure 2: Should the Governement of Sri Lanka rest negotiations with the LTTE after the elections? (Eth
perspective) 100%
10.1 90%
6.7 0.7
8.1 10.2
5.5
3.4
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
84.3
92.5 91.9
86.4
30%
20%
10%
0%
Sinhala SL Tamil UC Tamil Muslim

March 24 to 26, 2004
xecutive Summary
e pre election poll, Social Indicator (SI) attempts to to negotiations with the LTTE, special arrangements areas, the party best suited to handle national issues
TE
ent of Sri Lanka restart fter the elections?
An overwhelming 4.8
majority (85.3%) believes that the
9.7
government of Sri Lanka should restart
Yes
negotiations with the LTTE after the elections. Only
No
4.8% believe the contrary
DK/NS
ent of Sri Lanka restart r the elections? (Ethnic ve)
8.1 10.2
3.4
Furthermore, DK/NS
the study shows that regardless of
No
ethnic origin, a significant 1.9
86.4
majority share the view that
Yes
negotiations with the LTTE should recommence after the elections.
Tamil Muslim
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
Figure 3: Should negotiations be done with some conditions or none at all?
19.3
Some co
13.3
No cond
64.8
DK/NS
When looking at ethnic perspectives, the majority
Figure 4: Should negotiati
conditions a
from each community feel
100% that negotiations
90%
19
should be
80% carried out with some
70%
11.9
conditions, with the majority amongst the Sinhala community being the
66
highest (66%). 23% of the Muslim, 21% of the Up-country Tamil and 18.8% of the
60%
%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Sinhala S Sri Lankan Tamil communities respectively believe that the negotiatio conditions, while only 11.9% of the Sinhala community
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 24 to 26, 2004
be done with some
at all?
Of the people who think that the government should restart the negotiations with the LTTE after the elections, 64.8% says the negotiations should be carried out with some Some conditions
conditions. However, 13.3% believe that negotiations should be No conditions
done without any conditions, while 19.3%
64.8
DK/NS
remain undecided.
e 4: Should negotiations be done with some conditions or no
conditions at all? (Ethnic perspective)
19
22.6
16.1
20.7
11.9
21 18.8
23
66
58.6
62.9
56.3
Sinhala SL Tamil UC Tamil Muslim
that the negotiations should be carried out with no
Sinhala community share this belief.
004 5
DK.NS
No conditions
Some conditions

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2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
SPECIAL ARRANGEMENTS FOR VOTERS IN LTTE C
Figure 5: Are you aware of the special arrangem
made for the voters in the LTTE controlled are
49.4
50.2
Of those who are aware
Figure 6: Do you of the special arrangements made for voters in LTTE controlled areas, the majority
17.2 (69.4%) approve of these special arrangements, while 17.2% disapprove, and 12.6% express their uncertainty.
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 24 to 26, 2004
OTERS IN LTTE CONTROLLED AREAS
the special arrangements e LTTE controlled areas?
Only 50.2% of Sri Lankans are aware that special arrangements have been made for voters in LTTE controlled areas to cast their vote.
50.2
004 6
Yes
No
Figure 6: Do you approve or disapprove of these arrangements?
17.2
12.6
Approve
Disapprove
DK/NS
69.4

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2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
Figure 7: Do you approve or disapprove o (Ethnic perspective
100%
6
2.4
90%
14.7
6
80%
20.1 70%
60%
%
50%
64.2
0%
Sinhala SL Tamil UC Tami
Figure 8: If you approve sufficient d
14.2
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
97.6 88.1 40%
30%
20%
10%
When assessing the opinions of individual ethnic arrangements for the voters in LTTE controlled areas, Tamils approve of these arrangements with only 2.4% considerable majority of the Sri Lankan Tamil (88.1% also approve. A lesser majority (64.2%) of the Sinhal show that the disapproval mainly stems from the Sinha
60.9% of those who approve of the special arrangements made for the voters in the LTTE controlled areas are of the opinion that these arrangements are sufficient. While 14.2% feel these arrangements are insufficient, 24.9% are not sure about the sufficiency of the arrangements.
24.9

March 24 to 26, 2004
rove or disapprove of these arrangements?
(Ethnic perspective)
2.4
4.2 8.3
DK/NS
.1
97.6
87.5
Disapprove
Approve
amil UC Tamil Muslim
f individual ethnic groups regarding the special E controlled areas, a remarkable 97.6% of Up-country nts with only 2.4% who state that they are unsure. A nkan Tamil (88.1%) and Muslim (87.5%) community .2%) of the Sinhala community approve. The results ems from the Sinhala community (20.1%).
ure 8: If you approve of the special arrangements, how
sufficient do you think they are?
Very sufficient 24.9
29.2
Somewhat sufficient
Not suffiecient at all
DK/NS
31.7
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
Figure 9: If you approve of the special arran
think they are? (Regiona
100%
30 80%
42.3
60%
%
33.3
40%
51.9
20%
36.7
0%
North East
The results of the opinion poll show that people in arrangements that have been made for voters in the LTT northern region, 30% of those in the Eastern Province b have been made are not sufficient at all. However, it sh results are high in the Northern and Eastern Province du
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 24 to 26, 2004
e of the special arrangements, how sufficient do you k they are? (Regional perspective)
14.6 30
Not suffiecient at all
30.6 33.3
Somewhat sufficient
Very sufficient
36.7 26.6
East Rest
ow that people in the North are satisfied with the for voters in the LTTE controlled areas. Contrary to the e Eastern Province believe that the arrangements that at all. However, it should be noted that variations in the
Eastern Province due to the small sample size.
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
UNF Vs. UPFA
Figure 10: Which party do you feel is mos following issues?
Preserving law and order
Providing health and education
Combatting corruption
24
Reducing Unemployment
Reducing the cost of living
Handling of the peace
22.9 process
0 5 10 15 20 25
%
The third wave of this study reveals that that people c party to handle the peace process (44.7%), while 32 regard to reducing the cost of living, reducing unem education and preserving law and order, the belief is tha these issues than UNF. When it comes to combating c the UNF is best suited to tackle this issue while 37. However a marginally higher percentage (37.9%) belie combating corruption.
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004

March 24 to 26, 2004
ty do you feel is most capable of handling the
following issues?
29.7
33.6
36.5
29.4
32.1
38.3
24.7
37.1
37.9
NEITHER
32.1
38.5
UPFA
29.1
33
38.7
UNF
28.1
22.9
32.4
44.7
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
%
s that that people clearly believe that UNF is the best (44.7%), while 32.4% feel that it is the UPFA. With ing, reducing unemployment, providing health and rder, the belief is that UPFA is more capable of handling es to combating corruption, only 24.7% believe that his issue while 37.1% feel the UPFA is best suited. ntage (37.9%) believe that neither party is capable of
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2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
Figure 11: Best party to handle the
60
46.3
39.1 40
%
30.3
32.6
23.4
28.3 20
0
March 5-12th (Wave
March 13-15th (Wave 1)
2)
Figure 12: Best
20.6
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
Marc
When comparing all three waves with regards to peopl suited to handle the peace process, majority express th peace process. The trend graph shows that both the U ability to handle the peace process from the first wave (13-15th March) while conversely, the opinion that nei the peace process increased from the first wave to the depicts that support for UNF as well as UPFA increase March) from the second wave, with the increase in UNF the increase in UPFA support.
According to the trend, Both the UNF and UPFA lost support in their
60
ability to reduce the cost of living during the second wave, while the belief that neither party is
40 40
39.4
best suited to reduce the cost of living increased during the second wave. However in the third wave, UPFA is selected by the majority as the most capable
%
20
0
March 5-12th (Wave 1) March
party to reduce the cost of living even though there is an increase in U

March 24 to 26, 2004
t party to handle the peace process
39.1
44.7
UNF
32.6
32.4
28.3
22.9
UPFA
NEITHER
ch 13-15th (Wave
March 24-26th (Wave 2)
3)
ith regards to people’s opinions on which party is best majority express that UNF is best suited to handle the ows that both the UNF and UPFA’s lost support in their from the first wave (5-12th March) to the second wave he opinion that neither party is best suited to handle he first wave to the second wave. However, the graph ll as UPFA increases again in the third wave (24-26th the increase in UNF support being slightly higher than
Figure 12: Best party to reduce cost of living
46.2
0
38.7
35.4
33
28.1
0.6
18.5
2th (Wave 1) March 13-15th (Wave 2) March 24-26th (Wave 3)
e is an increase in UNF support in the third wave.
004 10
UNF
UPFA
NEITHER

Page 11
2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
When asked about voters’
Figure 13: What will the Sri La intentions in terms of
100 what they will do with their vote,
90
80
75.8 the majority (75.8%)
70
express that
60 they will cast a vote for a
%
50
party in the
40 upcoming election on
30
2nd April
20 2004. Interestingly,
10
1 13.4% of Sri
0 Lankan
Cast my vote for voters remain
a party undecided to the party they will vote for. While 4.1% says that they will not vote In this e lec whether they will vote or not.
40.6% of Sri Lankans say that
Figure 14: What issue the issue that is
determining which most important for them when determining which
40.6
party/alliance they will vote for
31.3 is the ability of that party to handle the peace process. 31.3% say that reducing the cost of living is the determining
3 factor of which party they will
0 vote. However, 16.9% of Sri Lankans will vote for a particular party based on other issues.
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
Spoil my vote
50
45
40
35
30
%
25
20
15
10
5
e h t f o g n i l d
H n
s s e c o r p e c a p a
e h t g n i c u d e R e
g n i v i l f o t s o c

March 24 to 26, 2004
: What will the Sri Lankan voter do on 2nd April 2004?
13.4
1
4.1
4.7
ote for
Spoil my vote Not vote Vote, but not yet
Not yet decided ty
decided for
to vote whom
ot vote In this e lection, 4.7% have not yet decided on
igure 14: What issue is the most important to you when
determining which party/alliance you will vote for?
31.3
3.8
1.5
0.3
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16.9
R
5.2
e h t
g n i v
g
t n e
g n i t t
C
n o i t
g n i
s
g n i c
i l f o
n i c u
m y o l
a b m
p u r r
c
R
c
d i v o r P
d n a h t l a h
n o i t a c u e
w a l g n i
r
r e h O
U
P
e d r o
a
t
u d e
t s o
d e
p m e
o
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v r e s e
d n r

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2004 Election Poll–Wave 3
Social Indicator (SI) is an independent social which conducts polls on socio-economic and po Operating under the Board of Directors of Alternatives (CPA), SI was established in Septem longstanding vacuum for a permanent, profess polling facility in Sri Lanka on social and politic Polling is an instrument of empowerment, a m majority of the public can express their opini them. Our mission is to conduct surveys on ke providing a means through which public opi public policy debate.
© Copyright Social Indicator – March 2004
Published by: Social Indicator Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.
Tel: +9411 2370472 Email: c Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: h

March 24 to 26, 2004
an independent social research organisation,
socio-economic and political issues. Board of Directors of the Centre for Policy as established in September 1999, and filled a or a permanent, professional and independent
ka on social and political issues. t of empowerment, a means by which the silent can express their opinions on issues affecting o conduct surveys on key social issues, thereby ough which public opinion can influence the
cy Alternatives
70472 Email: cpapoll@diamond.lanka.net 70475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org
004 12