கவனிக்க: இந்த மின்னூலைத் தனிப்பட்ட வாசிப்பு, உசாத்துணைத் தேவைகளுக்கு மட்டுமே பயன்படுத்தலாம். வேறு பயன்பாடுகளுக்கு ஆசிரியரின்/பதிப்புரிமையாளரின் அனுமதி பெறப்பட வேண்டும்.
இது கூகிள் எழுத்துணரியால் தானியக்கமாக உருவாக்கப்பட்ட கோப்பு. இந்த மின்னூல் மெய்ப்புப் பார்க்கப்படவில்லை.
இந்தப் படைப்பின் நூலகப் பக்கத்தினை பார்வையிட பின்வரும் இணைப்புக்குச் செல்லவும்: மீட்சி 2008.12

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êñˆ¶õ‹ ÞTMô£M®TM ÜóCòTM °öŠð‹, aï1⁄4‚è®, að£1⁄4÷£î£ó ÝŸøL¡¬ñ â¡ð¶ ãŸðì õN»‡ ́. êÍècF «ðíŠð ́õî£TM õÁ¬ñ åNŠðîŸè£ù õ£ŒŠ1 ãŸð ́A¡ø¶. õPòõ ̃èœ ÜHM1⁄4ˆF aêòŸð£†®TM ðƒ° a補÷ o®A¡ø¶. êÍèˆF¡ õ÷ƒèœ CøŠð£èŠ ðò¡ð ́ˆîŠðì õ£ŒŠ1 ãŸð ́A¡ø¶. êÍè oó‡ð£ ́èœ b ̃‚èŠðì õ£ŒŠ1 ãŸð ́A¡ø¶. aêTMõ£‚°‹ õ1⁄4ñ£ùo‹ ÜŸø õPòõ ̃èœ Gò£òˆî¡¬ñ»œ÷ êÍèˆFTM ðô õ£ŒŠ1‚è¬÷Š aðÁA¡ø£ ̃èœ. âù«õ, o¡Hœ¬÷Š ð1⁄4õ õ÷ ̃„C, ð£ì꣬ô‚ èTMM, 2è£î£ó «ê¬õèœ, êÍèŠ ð£¶è£Š1 â¡ðõŸPTM Gò£òˆî¡¬ñ¬ò ãŸð ́ˆF ñQî ÝŸøTMè¬÷ ÜFèKŠðî£TM õ£ö„ aêŒò o®»‹.
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Þôƒ¬èJTM ò£›Šð£íˆ îIö ̃èO¡ õóô£Ÿ¬ø‚ ÃÁ‹ ðô ËTMèÀ‹ ñ†ì‚è÷Š1ˆ îIö ̃ ðŸPò Cô ËTMèÀ‹ õ¡Qò ̃ õóô£ŸÁˆ F1⁄4«è£íñ¬ô «ð£¡ø æK1⁄4 ËTMèÀ‹ aõOõ‰î «ð£F1⁄2‹ Þôƒ¬è o¿õF1⁄2‹ õ£›‰î îIö ̃ ðŸPò õóô£ŸÁ ËTMèœ °¬øõ£è«õ aõOõ‰¶œ÷ù. C. âv. ïõóˆFùˆF¡ ‘Tamils and Ceylon’ (1958): C. CõóˆFùˆF¡ ‘Tamils in Early Ceylon’ (1968): T. îùð£‚AòˆF¡ ‘Þôƒ¬èJ¡ aî£TMLòô£Œ3⁄4èÀ‹ Fó£Mì‚ èô£„ê£óo‹’ (1988): è. °íó£ê£M¡ ‘ßöˆîõ ̃ õóô£Á’ (1996): C. è. CŸø‹ðôˆF¡ ‘ßöˆîIö ̃a¬ñ’ (2001): ðóo 1wðó†íˆF¡ ‘ð‡¬ìò Þôƒ¬èJTM îI¿‹ îIö1⁄4‹’ (2001); è£. Þ‰Fóð£ô£M¡; ‘Tamils in Sri Lanka – Evolution of ethnic identity’ (2005) â¡ðù o‚Aòˆ¶õ‹ õ£Œ‰î¬õ.
Þ‰î ËTMèœ âF1⁄2‹ ò£›Šð£í Þó£„CòˆFŸ°Š H¡ù ̃ ܬñ‰î Þôƒ¬èˆ îIöK¡ HŸè£ô õóô£Á ÃøŠðìMTM¬ô â¡ð¶ °PŠHìˆî‚è¶.
Þ‰î ËLTM Þôƒ¬èˆ îIöK¡ õóô£Á -îIöK¡ «î£Ÿøo‹ Ýó‹ð õóô£Á‹ (A o 300 -A H 300);; æ ̃ Þ1⁄4‡ì õóô£ŸÁ‚ è£ô‹ (A H 300 -A H 900); «ê£ö ̃Ý‚AóIŠ1‹ Üî¡ M¬÷3⁄4èÀ‹; ò£›Šð£í Þó£„Còo‹ õ¡Q„ CŸøó2èÀ‹; «ð£ ̃ˆ¶‚«èê ̃ Ý‚AóIŠ1‹ îIö ̃ Hó«îêƒèO¡ ÜN3⁄4‹; ì„2‚è£ó ̃ Ý‚AóIŠ1‹ îI›Š Hó«îêƒè¬÷„ 2ó‡®ò¬ñ»‹; HKˆî£QòK¡ Ýó‹ð ݆C‚è£ôo‹ îIö1⁄4‹ îIöK¡ MNŠ1í ̃3⁄4‹ â¿„C»‹ HKˆî£Qò ̃ ÜFè£óo‹ îIöK¡ ݆C»K¬ñ Gó£èKŠ1‹; Þôƒ¬è ÜóC¡ ÜóCòTM ïìõ®‚¬èèÀ‹ îI›ˆ «îCòˆF¡ â¿„C»‹ -ÝAò ðˆ¶ ÜˆFò£òˆ î¬ôŠ1èO¡ W«ö ÃøŠð ́Aø¶.
Þ‰ ËL1⁄2œ÷ oîTM ܈Fò£òñ£ù ‘îIöK¡ «î£Ÿøo‹ Ýó‹ð õóô£Á‹’ â¡ø ð°FJTM að1⁄4‹ð£1⁄2‹ «ðó£CKò ̃ Þ‰Fóð£ô£ îù¶ ‘Þôƒ¬èJTM îIö ̃’ â¡ø ËLTM ÃPò è1⁄4ˆ¶‚è«÷ F1⁄4‹ð3⁄4‹ ðF3⁄4 aêŒòŠð†®1⁄4‚A¡øù.
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aî¡Q‰Fò að1⁄4ƒèŸè£ô‚ è1⁄4×ôƒ î£NŠ 1¬îòTMèœ -Fó£Mì ñ‚èÀ‚° ð‡1èœ â¡ð«î ÝTMC¡ (Allchin) ¬ê de) «ð£¡ø aî£TMLòTM MŸð¡ù ̃è ÞŠð‡1è«÷ Þôƒ¬èJTM að£‹ðKŠ1 Ü Ý¬ù‚«è£†¬ì ÝAò ÞìƒèOTM Üè›3⁄4èOTM è£íŠð ́A¡øù. ÞŠð‡ èô£„ê£ó‹’ â¡ø °¬ìJ¡ W› a裇 ́ Þî¡ Fó£Mìˆ îQˆî¡¬ñ¬ò Þö‚è„ õóô£Ÿø£CKò ̃èœ «ñŸa補À‹ æ ̃ à að£PJTM ïñ¶ õóô£Ÿø£CKò ̃èœ M¿‰ að1⁄4ƒèŸ èô£„ê£óˆF¡ «î£Ÿø è£ô ÜPoèŠð ́ˆ¶õ 1500 ݇ ́èœ o  ñø‰¶Mì‚Ã죶. að1⁄4ƒèŸ èô£„ ݇ ́‚ è£ôƒèOTM ñˆFò î¬ó ï£ ́ A.o. 2000 ÞTM ð2¬ñˆ î¬ó ï£ ́èÀ Elam) ðóM A.o. 1500 ÞTM C‰¶ aõO ÞTM aî¡Q‰Fò£MŸ°‹ ðóMM†ì¶. ÞŠ ð‡H¡ ðó‹ðTM Íô ßöˆFó£Mì Elamo-Dravidian) ðó‹ð¬ô åˆF1⁄4Šð¶ a補÷«õ‡®ò‹. (McAlpin)
M R LAWS SOLICITORS Incorporating Ranjit & C
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ðô î¬ôo¬øè÷£èˆ aî£ì ̃‰¶ að1⁄4‰ «î£†ìƒèO«ô«ò è† ́Šð£ì£ù õ£›‚¬è¬ò ï죈¶‹ ÞŠað1⁄4‰«î£†ì ñ‚èœ, êÍè gFò£ù ÜcF‚° àœ÷£A àœ÷ù ̃ â¡ðFTM ñ£ŸÁ‚è1⁄4ˆ¶ Þ1⁄4‚è o®ò£¶. ÜòL1⁄2‹ ê ̃õ «îê gFò£è3⁄4‹ ãŸð† ́ õ1⁄4‹ að£1⁄4÷£î£ó, M...ë£ù, aî£NTM ̧†ð, ÜóCòTM ñ£Ÿøƒè¬÷‚ è1⁄4ˆFŸ a補÷£¶, â¶Mî ñ£ŸøˆFŸ°‹ à†ðì£î õ£›‚¬è o¬ø¬ò Þõ ̃èœ H¡ðŸP õ1⁄4A¡øù ̃. aõO»ôè ñ£Ÿøƒèœ ðŸPò MNŠ1í ̃3⁄4 àœ÷õ ̃èÀ‹ ÜîŸè£è‚ A÷ ̃‰aîö£¶ að£Á¬ñ 裈¶ õ1⁄4A¡øù ̃. Þ¶ å1⁄4 Üð£òñ£ù G¬ô¬ò‚ °Pˆ¶ GŸA¡ø¶.
°¬ø‰î ⿈îP3⁄4, °¬ø‰î 2è£î£ó õêF, °¬ø‰î «ð£ê£‚°, ÜFèKˆî C2 ñóíiî‹, aè÷óõñ£ù ñQî õ£›‚¬è‚° ꟫ø‹ að£1⁄4ˆîñŸø ¬ô¡ i ́èœ â‹ ð£îèñ£ù Å›G¬ôJTM ñQî ̃èœ âšõ£Á õ£öô£‹ â¡ðîŸè£ù å1⁄4 o¡ñ£FK¬ò Þõ ̃èœ àôAŸ° õöƒA»œ÷ù ̃. èì‰î 40 ݇ ́ è£ôñ£è Ü®Šð¬ì àK¬ñèœ, °®»K¬ñ, õ£‚°K¬ñ, Üóꣃè ñ†ìˆFTM b ̃ñ£ù‹ «ñŸa補À‹ àK¬ñ âù â¶3⁄4I¡P, að£Á¬ñ 裈¶ õ£ö‚ èŸÁ‚ a裇ìõ ̃èœ Þ‹ñ‚èœ. 1Fò ËŸø£‡®TM êõ£TMè¬÷ âF ̃ a補÷ˆ «î¬õò£ù îèõTM aî£NTM ̧†ðˆ Fø¡è«÷£, ݃Aô añ£NòP«õ£ Þ¡P Iè âO¬ñò£ù, â¶Mî àò ̃ ÜHô£¬êèÀ‹ ÜŸø êÍèñ£è õ£›‰¶ õ1⁄4A¡ø Þõ ̃èœ àôèˆFŸ° å1⁄4 Cø‰î ð®ŠH¬ùò£è3⁄4‹ ܬñA¡ø ̃.
1Fò ËŸø£‡®1⁄2‹ Þ„ êÍ般î aî£ì ̃‰¶ 19‹ ËŸø£‡ ́ G¬ô¬ñJTM ¬õˆF1⁄4Šð¶ «îCò gFò£è å1⁄4 aõ†èˆFŸ°Kò Mìò‹ ñ† ́ñTMô, «îCò ÜHM1⁄4ˆF‚è£ù å1⁄4 î¬ì‚èTM. Þ„ êÍèˆF¡ Y ̃«è ́è¬÷ àœ÷ì‚A, Üõ ̃èO¡ êÍè að£1⁄4÷£î£ó G¬ô¬ñè¬÷Š að£Áˆî õ¬óJô£ù êÍè ÜcF â¡ðõŸ¬ø‚ è1⁄4ˆFŸ a裇 ́, að£1⁄4ˆîñ£ù a補¬èò£‚èˆFTM bMóñ£ù ß ́𣆬ì aê1⁄2ˆî «õ‡ ́‹.
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M R LAWS SOLICITORS rporating Ranjit & Co.
itcham Road, Tooting, London SW17 9NJ
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t service via email. This firm is regulated by the Law Society
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ð1⁄4ƒèŸè£ô‚ è1⁄4×ôƒèœ o‚Aòñ£èˆ -Fó£Mì ñ‚èÀ‚°Kò îQˆ¶õñ£ù ÝTMC¡ (Allchin) ¬êTM† (Gordon chil- £TMLòTM MŸð¡ù ̃èO¡ o®ð£°‹. ¬èJTM að£‹ðKŠ1 ÜÂó£î1ó‹ ñ£‰¬î ÝAò ÞìƒèOTM «ñŸa補÷Šð†ì Šð ́A¡øù. ÞŠð‡1è¬÷ ‘Þ1⁄4‹1‚ °¬ìJ¡ W› a裇 ́ õó oòŸCŠð¶ ˆî¡¬ñ¬ò Þö‚è„ aêŒõîŸè£è Cô «ñŸa補À‹ æ ̃ àð£òñ£°‹. Þ‰îŠ ô£Ÿø£CKò ̃èœ M¿‰¶Mì‚Ã죶. ê£óˆF¡ «î£Ÿø è£ô‹ àôATM Þ1⁄4‹1 Ÿ° 1500 ݇ ́èœ oŸð†ì¶ â¡ð¬î 죶. að1⁄4ƒèŸ èô£„ê£ó‹ A.o 2500 TM ñˆFò î¬ó ï£ ́èOTM Ýó‹ðñ£A ð2¬ñˆ î¬ó ï£ ́èÀ‚°Š (Sumeria, 1500 ÞTM C‰¶ aõO‚°‹ A.o. 1200 £MŸ°‹ ðóMM†ì¶. (Gordon Childe) ðTM Íô ßöˆFó£Mì añ£NJ¡ (proto ó‹ð¬ô åˆF1⁄4Šð¶  èõùˆFTM °‹. (McAlpin)
°¬øèœ ð£óð†ê ïìõ®‚¬èèœ (positive ŸP¡ áì£è êÍè ÜcFŠ Hó„ê¬ù¬ò‚ ƒ¬èJTM ÜŠHó„ê¬ù¬òˆ î£ñîI¡P‚ ÍèˆFTM Mó‚F»‹, «õî¬ù»‹ Üî¡ A÷ ̃„CèÀ‹ ãŸð ́õ¶ ꣈Fòñ£ù¶. êÍè ÜcF è£íŠð ́A¡ø¶ â¡ð¬î ¬ù åNŠðîŸè£ù ïìõ®‚¬èè¬÷
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A.o 1200&1000 ݇ ́ è£ôŠ ð°FJTM Þ1⁄4‹1 ÜPoè‹ aêŒòŠð†ì«ð£¶ aî¡ùèˆF¡ að1⁄4ƒèŸ èô£„ê£ó ñ‚èœ Üî¡ àð«ò£èˆ¬î  â ́ˆ¶‚ aè£‡ì£ ̃èœ â¡ð«î êKò£ù èEŠð£°‹.(Junichi Fukao)
A.H 300‚°‹ A.H 900‚°‹ Þ¬ìŠð†ì è£ôŠ ð°F¬ò  ‘Þ1⁄4‡ì õóô£ŸÁ‚è£ô‹’ âù‚ a補÷«õ‡®òFTM¬ô.
“êKˆFó‹ â¡ð¶ ㆮ1⁄2‹ ⿈F1⁄2‹ ñ† ́‰î£¡ Þ1⁄4‚è«õí ́‹ â¡ðFTM¬ô. a¬ñò£ù è1⁄4×ôƒèÀ‹ Üè›õ£ó£Œ„C Íô‹ è‡ ́H®‚èŠð ́‹ aî£TM að£1⁄4†èÀ‹ ð‡¬ìò ñQîQ¡ ÝŸø¬ô‚ 裆 ́‹ ÜNõŸø õóô£ŸÁŠ ðF«õ ́è«÷”. â¡ð£ ̃ âù¶ «ðó£CKò ̃ «è£ì¡ ¬êTM†.
“History need not be a written record. Every ancient arte- fact and archaeological find is an indeliable record of human endeavour and ancient history”.
Þ‚è£ôŠð°F‚°Kò îI› îIö ̃ ï£íòƒèÀ‹ (ð.1wðó†í‹) îI›‚ èTMaõ† ́èÀ‹ (» «õ1⁄2ŠHœ¬÷, C ðˆñï£î¡, ð 1wðó†í‹): aî¡Q‰Fò õ¬è â1⁄2‹1‚ à ́èÀ‹ (K A R Kennedy) Þôƒ¬èJTM ðô ð£èƒèOTM è‡ ́ H®‚èŠð†®1⁄4‚A¡øù. ܬõ õóô£ŸÁ Ýî£óƒè÷£°‹.
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Þ‰ ËL1⁄2œ÷ «ð£ ̃ˆ¶‚Wê ̃, ì„2‚è£ó ̃, ݃A«ôòK¡ ݆C‚ è£ôƒèœ Ýöñ£è ÝŒ3⁄4 aꌶ â¿îŠð†®1⁄4‚A¡øù. îIöK¡ MNŠ1í ̃, îI›ˆ «îCòˆF¡ â¿„C â¡ðù Þ‰ ËL¡ Iè„ CøŠð£ù ð°Fèœ.
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Page 4
President J R Jayewardene issued a special diktat to the then Army chief-of-Staff, Brigadier T I Weeratunga – “It will be your duty to eliminate in accordance with the laws of the land the menace of terrorism in all its forms from the island, and more especially from the Jaffna District. I will place at your disposal all resources of the state..... This task is to be performed by you and completed before 31st December.”
That was over 29 years ago on 14 July 1979. This is what President Mahinda Rajapakse said in his 2008 New Year message - “....There is the expectation that we will come closer to overcoming the main problems that face us as a na- tion. Our foremost wish this New Year is success in the efforts to defeat terrorism in all its forms, bringing freedom and democracy to all Sri Lankans; and beginning new processes for the sharing of power within a single undivided country, assuring equality for all.”
Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickrmanayaka told Parliament on 10 July 2008 that the time has come to put an end to terrorism and called on everyone to join hands irrespective of political differ- ences to eradicate terrorism which has become a cancerous menace to the country.
The former Commander of the Army (1996-1998) and the first Chief of Defence Staff of the Sri Lankan armed forces, Rohan Daluwatte, wrote on 20 November 2008 that after three decades, now the required status has been given to the security establishment; they have everything that they wanted - increase of Defence Budget and as a result the increase of manpower, fire power, resources, technology and also modernization - to counter the present capabilities of the LTTE.
Another important factor, according to General Rohan Daluwatte, was the firm stand taken by the Sri Lankan government against outside pressure, more often than not initiated by terrorist fronts and sympathizers. In the past, he says, some INGOs, NGOs, the media and various other organiza- tions succeeded to a great extent in hampering the Government’s resolve and military operations by exerting various types of pressure. Sometimes this pressure came through foreign governments who were themselves under pressure from some of these INGOs and invariably the pressure was linked to foreign aid from these governments. This resulted in lot of limitations imposed on military command- ers by the Government, particularly in the use of fire power. Sometimes the pressure was from our own bureaucrats. For example, at times it was a Herculean task to obtain the necessary approvals to increase the cadre of the armed forces to secure the newly captured areas and more often than not these requests were not granted or granted only in part.
Daluwatte says further: “While no one in his right mind expects the Government to do noth- ing to stop the escalating violence, surely, there are, more important aspects of the question that merit attention in the island of Sri Lanka. Can terrorism be simplified or reduced to a question of ‘law and order’? Terrorists, whether we like them or not, cannot be simply equated with mobs, thieves, robbers, thugs, looters, and arsonists. The only thing that is common between the two is their addiction to violence; and violence certainly cannot be condoned by any civilised society which believes in the rule of law.”
But, if terrorists were really a breed that could be classed alongside robbers and thugs, there is no need to propose a 177 billion-rupee ($1.6bn) defence budget, supersonic fighter-planes, multi-barrel firepower to carry out the wishes of Rajapakse regime. Youth terrorism is a violent manifestation of something deeper and something fundamental to the national fabric. Cycles of violence have been perpetuated by the failure following ceasefires to meet the human needs of youth and to address the issues and causes that had led youth to continue violence.
Military solutions are no answer to political problems: A military defeat of the LTTE will not pave the way for President Rajapakse to achieve a political settlement in the North-East, on his terms and there is no reason to believe that he will be able either to eliminate “terrorism” either or to establish genuine peace in the island by military means.
What is more, with all the might of a military machine, the world’s most powerful nation on earth, the United States of America is still unable to find a military solution and eliminate “terrorism” in Iraq and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, life in both these countries has become miserable for their unfortunate people. What this reveals is that military solutions cannot be achieved for political problems. Why then breed more terrorists and make people’s lives more miserable?
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∎ Flood disaster in Jaffna and Vanni: Monsoon rains and cyclone ‘Nisha” struck the Jaffna peninsula and the Vanni on the night of 24 November. In a three-day havoc all low lying areas, including the coastal belt, were flooded, affecting 338,579 people of 97,656 families in the Jaffna peninsula alone.
Among these 93,135 members of 25,381 families were displaced and accommodated in transitional camps. The floods and cyclonic winds completely destroyed 11,909 houses and left 31, 278 houses severely damaged. Livestock was killed and a huge number of banana trees and vegetable plots were destroyed.
In the Vanni, many families which had suf- fered displacement more than ten times were again affected. The floods and the cyclone displaced 303,255 persons of 76,533 families in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu Districts. Due to the heavy rains the reservoirs in Visvamadhu, Udayarkaddu, Kalmadhu, Iranaimadhu and other tanks in Vanni are dangerous- ly overflowing. Uprooted trees have blocked roads and damaged buildings. In the Vanni too vegetable crops and livestock have been destroyed.
Consequently, prices of vegetable, eggs and other food have risen sharply and are expected to
remain high until markets are replenished with fresh stocks following new cultivation. Though essential food materials have been brought to Jaffna by ship prices of food remains high. People in the district find it difficult to make ends meet without adequate income. High unemployment and military restric- tions on fishing are exacerbating the situation.
Reports say that electricity supply has been restored in many areas in Jaffna and and telephone lines are expected to be restored within the next few weeks. The daily curfew hours in the peninsula were changed on 1st August 2008. The new curfew hours are from 9.00 p.m. to 4.30 a.m.
∎ UN condemns killing of aid worker: The UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Sri Lanka, Neil Buhne, condemned the killing of Tamil aid worker A.Vigneswaran employed by the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) in the Batticaloa District, on 27 November. He called on the Sri Lankan authorities to mount a thorough investigation that will result in the killer being brought to justice. Mr Vigneswaran, 28, had been working as a construction supervisor for nearly two years and he was the third employee of the NRC to be murdered.
Meanwhile, European Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid Louis Michel,
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China to be biggest beneficiary of change, with wealth moving from west to east and nations compet- ing for scarce resources, says a report by the National Intelligence Council
The National Intelligence Council (NIC), in its recent report titled A Transformed World says that “by 2025 the international system will be a global multipo- lar one with gaps in national power continuing to nar- row between developed and developing countries”.
The NIC is a center of strategic thinking within the US Government, reporting to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and providing the President and sen- ior policymakers with analyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinated throughout the Intelligence Community.
According to the report, the biggest winner in the coming multipolar age will be China. It predicts China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country. On present trends China will have the world’s second largest economy by 2025, and could well be the largest importer of natural resources and the biggest polluter. It will be a leading military power, with a considerable navy to protect the sea lanes that deliver its raw materials, and at the same time wield hi-tech asymmetric tools.
The shift from a unipolar world has taken the form of a transfer of wealth from west to east that is unprece- dented in its scale and speed, the NIC says. That transfer has been driven by high oil prices and the relentless drift of manufacturing to the low-wage economies of China and the rest of Asia.
That eastward movement has also entailed a shift in the world economy’s centre of gravity from free-market capitalism to state-run structures. “For the most part, China, India and Russia are not following the western liberal model for self-development but instead are using a different model, ‘state capitalism’,” the report says.
The NIC report further predicts that there will be more Somalias - failed and lawless states. As power flows between nations, there will be another shift in some parts of the world: from the state to “non-state ac- tors” such as corporations, tribes, religious groups and criminal gangs.
“Several countries could even be ‘taken over’ and run by criminal networks. In areas of Africa or south Asia, states as we know them might wither away, ow- ing to the inability of governments to provide for basic
needs, including security,” the report warns.
Pulled apart by conflicts over increasingly scarce water, food and fuel, states will begin to implode, and the international organisations such as the UN that are supposed to act as referees do not seem to be up to the job of dealing with this new world.
The report envisages the return of a type of conflict “we have not seen for a while”: the battle over resourc- es. As energy supplies are perceived to be more endan- gered, states could go to war in an attempt to secure exclusive access. One possibility raised by the NIC is a conflict between China and India, two fast-growing economies competing for finite raw materials and en- ergy. Lack of water and declining crops caused by glo- bal warming can also fuel conflicts within weakening states in Africa. In that sense Darfur, where nomads and farmers have clashed over resources, could be a sign of things to come.
However, the NIC does not believe Iran’s acquisi- tion of nuclear weapons is inevitable, but the perception that the Islamic Republic is getting close to acquiring the bomb could lead other Middle East states to pursue their own nuclear ambitions, sparking a dangerous arms race.
The mostly stable mutual deterrent relationship that kept the cold war cold may not work in the Middle East, the report warns.
The report says, “Episodes of low-intensity conflict taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well estab- lished.”
Underlying the eastward shift of power is the age- ing of the west. The world’s population is expected to grow from 6.8 billion to 8 billion in 2025, and almost all that growth will take place in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with only 3% in the west.
The US, with its high rate of immigration, will be a partial exception, but the greying of Europe and Japan will increasingly hobble countries’ economies, as fewer and fewer working-age adults support the massed ranks of pensioners.
“By 2010 there will be about one senior for every four working age people in the developed word. By 2025 this ratio will have climbed to one to three or pos- sibly higher,” the report says.
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said: “The perpetrators of such horrendous acts must be brought to justice. There can be no impunity. Humanitarian workers are here to help Sri Lanka people, in an impartial and neutral manner. They must be able to do their work without risking their lives. It is the responsibility of all those involved in this conflict that under the International Humanitar- ian Law they are obliged to ensure the safety of ci- vilians, including aid workers.” Foreign aid workers in Sri Lanka have been subjected to vilification on the alleged grounds that they are sympathetic to the LTTE. Sri Lanka stands accused of being one of the most dangerous places in the world for aid workers.
∎ Experiments with coconuts to create profit: Dr. Steve Bradley of the Social En- trepreneurship and Economic Development division at the Baylor University in Waxco, Texas, USA has announced that his class is working on a project that utilizes the fibre of the coconut for profitable busi- ness in developing countries such as Ghana, Liberia, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia and Sri Lanka.
Dr Bradley partnered with his father, Dr Walter Bradley, professor of engineering, to work on the technology for using coconut fibres to make truck liners, door panels, and floorboards in automobiles. The researchers are in talks with Hobbs Bonded Fib- ers, a large fibre processing company that provides
services to General Motors, Toyota, Nissan and Honda. Dr Bradley says that should the project prove feasible, the US will buy the necessary equipment for processing the coconut fibre in the developing nations and hire people in those countries to com- plete the processing for export.
In Brazil and Sri Lanka, the land to cultivate the coconuts has already been rented. But none of the equipment has been purchased for the processing to begin. “The initial capital investment is anywhere between $50,000 and $100,000”, Dr Bradley said. “So the risk is pretty high, and we are trying to get people here to invest in that. But if the returns are good and the social benefits are high enough, it will be well worth it.”
Unlike many resources, coconuts are renewable products and because they are grown only in certain regions of the world, nations that grow them have a global advantage.
“The ability to bring in capital, not in the form of temporary aid, but in the form of exporting real- value added products is a huge benefit and is a huge part of these countries rising out of poverty,” Dr Bradley said. “The role of the social entrepreneur is to be that connection between the technology knowledge of the West and the unique resources of underprivileged nations. When you put those two things together, there is a chance for really great opportunities.”
4 ®ê‹ð ̃ 2008