Page 1
South Asia, Madras and the Tigers'
- Mervyn de The Lady’s no pus – G. W. Krish Dilemmas of the 3rd W. policy-maker — Richard Hof
O INTERNATIONAL. ALERT
 

'ecord on communalism - Tisaranee Gunasekera
and - Daniel Yergin James Reston Frederick Clairmonte Michael Prowse
Silva
hower
an
ord
ferbert
• мғрид Амр ғнғЕром

Page 2


Page 3
EXODUSFROWPUBLC SERWCE
The public sector wFI soon Eye facing a manpower Cisis. Retirement papers have heел Se 7ť fr7 by 23,604 public 56 TWär 75. TECNIEFS fra F7 Tf7 Margesf category, a5 ппапу as 7,529 of ther, Ald 8,782 are trained teachers 7 345 are schoo/prfлсfpa/5.
TFF | Eglwyd 5 fM) W5 fro 77 - 7 iлселtiva offarad bythagavаглErf Lorder Wiscos DLLs. Ser var iks vy sig stad Served fross 70, 20 a r7ď 30 years Cou /ď reť fra Without Wā stiring for the лтагтcatory agg 55. The орffол Mvā75 wa fab We LP foi DeCer77 ber 3. 3. ār ti teachers, among others who have одfed": fо геIїrв агв 73 doctors 2CO Lrse5, o2 HLrriff isfrakors, 30 åCCD i starts and 53 белgineers.
DOCTORS THREATEM STRIKE
Ĉiť frig officia/ indifference for their Foro Éb Warr7s as trio provocatior. the Government Medical Officers' Association issued а дгеss statement warning of fra de Linion action (strike). The staterimerať sa fad: "Du ring ťfia pasť severa / years the GMWOA What' disc Lyss fro 75, Wffi f/E frfrossfer of (gästs änd ri inistry officials and addressed SEvera / гтёrnorалda ггgardiлg in portant issues affecting the Terriership. As such coStations have Totore any responste, re Associatio f35 other of for EL to resort O frag or Corpo.
А specѓа / g', flas bёвэл sшгтлг ary 79 ta oht, for trade unio
FAKEPASSE The govern.
haf a rffiliar) * passports for
f Sri Laky BJBCar 5e t/7e "C passports issL'ël Невагт аг гтvга according to Departrтагтt Sд Wärr fräffar), W fs, äs fra WWe ws: port is serit offi Jarl Fr) affûr). Ff7! degrees Cert,
η ημίτ,
/f fs g//7705ľ Гагтдаr propf. Sa fad.
BEYO W
Apparently troika pres Reggie Siriw to hawe beel has, hote, ming side eff p Braten855 ar
The latest s ha his rowed Bändärä laike Lehi, both Wera o CE his images, (see 15/12/90). T He should taking the ret sage or disc pETE 5 troika fo
S
" FRERA
(ARDA
Wol. 13 No. 18 Jaluir 15, 1991
PrСЕ НА ТЕ
Publishod fortnightly by Lanka Guardian Publishing Co.Ltd. No. 245, Union Place. Colo Tibo - 2.
Editor: Mervyn da Silva Telephoпе: 4475B4
COM
News Background பேf Media and HLIIIa Third WOrli
Fil Čivilizatim dit FEIT,
Printed by
B2/5, Sri Hatnaյ
Маwatha,
Tքldբիլյr

пега/ лтеet/лg
oned for Janu
fr) a 77 a 7da ľa
actio 7.
PRO OF FORTS
?rif flas Orffereaf 'no f' 377 inated :SLa ťo ciť/zen8 o wwiss to fra vėV, Ma'" Wärf7 fräfe
if her to have for to farper, ап Emigration Lokesmär7. Hof was exp/аїлеd. ffie er 7ffre p55гоџgh a thermo/ Ghire a 780 grade in one
700 per cert the spokesman
BANDA the little per esCribed for Mr ardena appears too much. He developed alaracts like intermId beligerency. ymptoms show beyond baiting into ambasting if them, oddly, political father Lanka Guardian his Won't do. either reduce commended doontinue taking rth with.
. Pathirawitana
TENTS
rl Rights 15 לך 19 hE NSSP 21
24
Ananda Frags
L h i SF ra Wami Lutt Lu .13 םנmbחםlםC B: 43,595
KUMAR DAWD
Kumar David (Kumar who?) writes (L. G. 15 December): "It is no secret that I am a Thember of the NSSP". To me it was, until I read this. | did not know Kumar David was a member of the NSSP. did not even know there was such a person as Kumar David.
The wain glory of some of these 13 par l'our Marxists is beyond belief.
Leonard Thiru na waka rasu Colombo 4
Briefly. . .
6 Nine hundred Lankan Tamils jailed in southern India mutilied and Went on indefinite hunger strike demanding to be released. They werc members of the Eelam Pcople's Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF), a militant group, held near Madras. Prison unrest was also reported from Wellore Where cadres of the LTTE were held.
O In an editorial titled ''The Tiger has not changed its spots' the Indian Telegraag has said that it Would be a mista ke to assume that the LTTE has seen the error of its Way and genuinely adopted the path of peace. The Telegragh noted that in 24 hours after the LTTE's unilateral ceasefire began the Tigers attacked two army camps.
The military showed commendable rcStraint in not over-reacting, the editorial said.
If war breaks out in the Gulf the most affected ex(Corfirized or page 23)

Page 4
CHAWGMG REGIOWAL SCEME
SHUKLA VS'
Mervyn de Silva
ll countries today are
revie Wing their past relationships and World-view' said a state lent issued at the conclusion of a two-day INDO-U.S. symposiull in Delhi recently. Among the spicalker 5 We To Admiral Huntington Hardisty, C-in-C Pacific Colland of the US Navy, and Dr. Harry Roman, Asst. Secretary Defence. Among the unofficial speakers were Mr. William Clark, General Sundarji (former Army Comill and cr) and K. Subramanian11, former DirecLo Institute of Defence Studies. Thic preciscInt Director, IDS.A., Air
Commodore Jasjit Singh and
Prof. S. I). Muni vyer also
participants.
The Indo-US en counter, a
definite sign of an emerging relationship qualitatively different from the post-independence understanding, coincides with the
rapidly changing Indo-Soviet quasi-alliance. The evidence of such a radical transformation
Kashmir was the "beginning of contemporary Indian history. A state with a Moslem majority but a Hindu ruler opted to join India on the say-so of the maharajah, supported by an interventionist Indian army, The U.N. stopped the fighting. The resolution called for a plebiscite.
is irrefutable.
The United States has been uns werw i ing in its support for the Pakistani demand for implementation of the resolution, whereas the Soviet Union backed India to the hilt. Kashmir Wä5, WheTe. Pallit Neh TL W5 born. Apart from that, Kashmir's location made it a vital strategic concern in Indian eyes. The Kashmir insurgency has assumed such da ngerous proportions that Minister5 have He en removed, governors sacked and the Indian
arily sent in. T W. chief has bei Like Punjab,
scctions of the say, has got o
II both cases. the Pakista T i T ties of actively bole. If it is di that charge General Zia-ul bellie Wed th:lt LH1 II hatch III dia’s CC). Il Welt i Thl. Il Was (a) to weal nally and (b) to tan's Lucilea T pTC) to (a) Pakistan two exposed fl: and Punjab. W insurgency had level of itch sit "Operation Blues Iпсilian army c. the assasination Gandhi, the Kas TOT: OT || 55 direct Pakista ni the U.S. 11ic war gawe Presidic opportunity to Kashmir uprisin
The Swiety Afghanistan an Soviet-American permitted US p. sect the St Luth A a different persp can need for Pak ton's launching anti-Soviet opera nistan, I wa:5 no) rity. Human Rig a major US dip Buit General Zi pressure for in with a popularly Ilt is ]t8fסוח Ecctions were he Bhutt) took of Paki5ta i Lilita Establish ment and

he forer R. A. 2n put in charge. Kashmir, so the
Indian press ut of contral
India accused ilitary authorifo II lenting troufficult to reject it is because Haq always e only Way to much superior ilitary strength ken India interdevelop PakisgTim. Il Tegali Tcl coccitated. On 1 lks - Kl:15h1TIT "hile the Sikh reached a high y climaxing in ta T”, (the tough rackdown) and f MT5. Idirl 15:"ו - 1t?) וטir rוון וh drait. The t inון טון1werרוזיin i Afghan civil Int Zila an ideial Te-fl-1 til:
thdrawal froll d the steady
rapproche IT1 ent licy III kers to sian region in ICctive, Alleriis tan, Washing
pad for the tion in Afgalonger a prioghts had become onatic weapon. a resisted US ternal, Te form,
elected governinal objective. :ld and Benazir fice. But the iry-bureaucratic Big Business
too kindly to wie wis on the cconomy, her efforts to restrict the army's role, and her hosti
did not take Hic i "radiçal"
lity to Islamic conscrvatism Most of all, the well-entrenched Pakista ni Tulling coteries - which have acquired power under the Army's protective լIIIյbrella rt = sented her friendly overtures to the Rajiv Gandhi administration,
These interlocked power-andpressure groups undermined the Bhutto regime, and exploited to the full, the multiple mistakes of an inexperienced andi na iwe Benazir, all-too publicly in the vice-like grip of the family, especially her husband and her mother. Corruption patronge and sheer ineptitude led to her downfall.
The clection itself was not
all that credible. Besides, the new regime has launched a persecution campaign against
thc Bhutto family and its closest advisers and supporters. The US Congress, led by Congressman Stephen Solarz and one
of the key aides of the Congressional Cor T1 Immittice, PetT Galbraith (son of Prof. Gal
braith) has taken a dim view of the post-election t Te Tids,
Far more crucially, however, Washington has rcwricwed its India policy, in the light of its worsening relations with Pakistanı ald China, the steady" crosion of the old Indo-Soviet 'special relationship' India as the biggest Imarket after China,
India's fast-expanding Illiddle class (a 200 Inillion IIlarket) and the country's bouyant
democracy. While the US would hardly promote Indian "regional hegemonism”, Washington is facing up 5quärcly to Indian pre-eminence in SA ARC.

Page 5
The critical attitude to Pakistan is paralleled by a much fricndlier approach to India. Some basic changes in policy have followed. The US is no longer insisting on a plcbiscite
in Kashmir. It has also rapped Pakistan on both Punjab and Kashmir, The US has th Teä
te ned to Cut Off lid if Pakistan does not open to inspection its nuclear project. The US has sold India a super computer.
The cooling of US-Pak relations has been accompanied by Islamabad taking the (Zulfikar Ali) Bhutto "Islamic option'. Pakista I has strengthened ties with IRAN and TUR KEY, and has the best relations with Saudi Arabia. Is Pakistan offering the Islamic countries an Islamic Bomb' India has not exploded any device for 15 years nor does it show any sign of developing a weapons capability. It is not kecin on giving Pakistan a justification for joining the Big League.
India's relations with her neighbours, certainly smaller states like Sri Lanka, Will have to be placed in a new framework. But that may take time since the Indian Establish ment, not just the government, face the greatest domestic crisis since partition :
a) the communal violence and the rise of fundamentalism'
b) the caste issue
c) political instability, the problem of elections and the crazy quilt of the current party alignments,
and personal antagonisms
d) se curity threats on several borders, and the potential.
1L is in this new Indian regional international context that the old Tamil (LTTE primarily), Madras (DMK
Al DMK) and Delhi interactions
should be policy-makers in faced with two threats, both traditional ene and a com II security problen kind (sccession serious militari But that too is though the neig Bu T ma, is n10 t |
The Inost Tec Delhi says that t guerrillas hawe they were trai! cadres — in Ass na du, a Ind a ccc Jaffna. Delhi i bed also by t
AK-47's flatil
Madras,
The LTTE E
speaking, the
also a politicalin as much as Of the ADMK ally of Mr. Gar wants the Centre ter Chandra Sekh the Stilte Ass CT11 fresh polls. Her Congress votes, the state (the DM hawe ower a thi see her safely ir Chief Minister's Gandhi can pull Childra Sickhar Sabha, the AIDM such a now e ag: Ianidhi is ilevital dra Sekhar, for rability of his in nistration, appeal Illind of his ow he fears that a tunistic mowe ag of the DMK, representative of lism, will bring even violence, te Indial In State, a II
South which is So he presses M quite hard but
pushes him out. Inidhi, for his pro cates. He

wicwed. Indian Delhi are IW serious security involving its : my, Pakistan, Il borde T. A of the salic ist) but not so ly is ASSAM. border problem, hbouring Statę, hostile.
2nt report from Ice ASSA MESE
confessed that ned by LTTE aIII, in TallilIding t (IC, s deeply disturle. In limber of ng freely in
ind, generally Tamil issue is electoral factor M5. Jaya la litha an important i dhi's Congress, (Prime Minisar) to dissolve bly and hold hope is that about 17% of K :ırıldı. AIL) MK rd each) will stalled in the $ cat, Since: the rug Linder il thic Lok f K thinks that LİT1st MT. Kaule. But Challall the wulineli mill Drity :: drill ilis to have a 1. Iп апy case, a tently oppori inst the chief the i Luther II Lic: Tali mil ma titlob Talserious trouble, yet another d that it it ell tively quite. r. Katunan idhi never really And Kal TuläПагt, recinever betrays
_-
Tamil nationalism, Tarely attacks the LTTE frontally, but he does take action, at least pTC) forma — lucking the " " Tilitants' up, not only the 'Tigers'
but its rivals as Well. Mr. KEL TLI ma nidhli CTiti Cises tEle "Tigers' but always helds high
the ban mer of Tamil pride and
Tamil rights,
The LTTE Hlas Tot last jts
rear-base, sanctuary, point of
entry to India, ind the DMK
Godfather but its style is cramped, its Coperational activitics circunscribed. Thus, the ceasefire - a breather, and a time to take stock of the situation,
Ceasefire ends: No extension
The seven day ceasefire in the North-East ended with the government rejecting a request by Kittu for an extension and a new offer to meet the government's demands. Kittu has agreed to parallel talks on (a) conditions for laying down arms etc Fin d (b) political issues, including merger, devolution etc.
But the Defence Ministry was
opposed to an extension pointing out that there had bcc in In any violations. (The LTTE in turn accused the government of truce violations). The government is only ready to agree to another truce IF Prabhakaran himself appeals for a ceasefire and on certain basic conditions the government will lay down. The LTTE was ready to have violations' identified by neutral observers of the truce. But the Defence Ministry pressed its point and the Government said "NO", inspite of all tile persuasive cfforts of 9 Tamil militant groups, some of whom are working with the army.

Page 6
LTTE: Ceasefire and r,
le LTTE's in o L1 ccm: 0 f
a cea Sefire evoked the following response from political parties.
In a joint statement the SLFP, MEP, CP, LSSP, BNP ld D.W..JP said: if All thes parties have consistently dicplored and regrette di the ongoing strife in the North and East together with the slaughter, the mai ming and the crippling and the destruction of resources that it has involved. We who have always wanted a political solution to the ethnic problem supported the military response to the LTTE's resumption of a military onslaught. . .
"A ceasefire is welcomed by us as a step towards the peace
for which everybody is longing. Being conscioli 15 of the fact that a ceasefire is not by
itself the peace that is desired
but is intended to create an opportunity to end the civil strife by a serious attempt to
solve the problems that led to the strife, we state our positioп in that regard.
** In this connection yw e i blelieve that negotiations would have to be started. Any such discussions in our view should be accompa nied by the acceptance of the following prerequisites:
(a) recognition that til: territorial integrity of Sri Lanka must be preserved;
(b) recognition of the democratic rights Other Illinority parties and groups
and a declared willingness to sit do Wim with thcm , and other political parties to discuss ways and means of achieving a solution to the ethnic problems of the country by negotiations;
(c) a In early ag Telement regarding the restoration of a TCP er civil administTaation in
the North and East;
(d) a declaration against thic possession and use of arms by any group or persons other than those authorised by the law and the constitution."
d
The TIUJ LF 11 hilateral decl LTTE a n d i urg Ilment to respon
The All-Cey gress saidi that respite in the and East on 1 of the hapless th Ose a Teäs'. T colled with and very call profession" (of
The DWC ceasefi Te and ur subject to thc ditions: 1. Nci
LTTE accu
he LTTE Ta ilil Nild Of hawing trust of peop Eelam" by arre ed Imilitants vo, Te fuge il the : A state II ent Peoples Front Tigers, the po the LTTE, in , available cre, Tigers who Wound cd in th Sri Länka C allowed to c. Nadu for treat obtaining clea Centre,
It said thes bc II a FT23 tęd fI beds on the si they posed a t Corder in "Taimi in jail.
Describing th Ta mil a Id iinh 5äid the Stilte chi ( 35 el to : c3 'ficist Sinilala
It said the LTTE ET E WETE: those Whi li rib, 5, () e El below the Wa had lost his wi. included à wo LTTE alleged police had eve

eactions
Welcomed the : ration by the ;ed the governd positively.
lon "l'a lil Conit welcomed any WAT i tille NoTth y for the sake people living in "El ACTU Vemlich hesitation tiously LTTE's a ceasefire),
wc1 colled the 'ged peace talks following conthic party should
NEWS BACKGROUND
L1 se the Cea5ef Te i th Teb lilld and strengthen positions. 2. The modalities of the talks should be discussed with registered political parties. 3 A cea se fire observation coil littee consisting of one representative from each political party should be for med.
The Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) described the LTTE's declaration as all atten pt to divert international contellipt of LTTE activities the World over and attempt to strengthen the inselves and prepa Te for a Irlassive offensive.
ses TN Gov't of betrayal
MAHORAS accused t c 111 )3:t_וו"ET 111 טוון ון betrayed thc le of Tamil :sting the wound"ho had sought Stal LC,
issued by the of Liberation litical party of Jaina and IIlade said that the were seriously e War. With the iDVCFIl mle Int Were one to Tamil ment only after Ta mice from the
Illilitants had "om thair hospital ecious plea that hreat to lay at
Nadu a Lld put
|c action as antiLIan, the LTTE Gib WeITI T: It lliid Illide with the
regi Ilıc".
Illajority of the rrested recently had lost their ld been paralysed ist and arlother sion. Thcarrested man Tiger. The that the State in attacked those
who were protecti Ing the wounded Tigers.
I Said the Col di tic of two
of the 16 Tigers arrested in the first phase had become critical owing to lack of
proper medicare. The LTTE said it offered to treat these II.iitants and said they could be in police custody but this request was turn cd down by the State Government. Later 10 Ilore LTTE IIll Wrc arcs ted
on a baseless charge of fuel snuggling. ANCESTRAL, HOME
Describing Tamil Nadu as thic alcestral line if the people of “ “ Tamil Eelam” the
state IT ent said: "We are bound by common blood. The people
of Tamil Nadu had for long given moral support to the struggle of their brethern and
had risen as one IIla Il when Cver they faced genocidal attacks, This had acted Fls a ITUFälle booster for those engaged in the liberation struggle''.
The recent malicious propå ganda in Tamil Nadu, ai med at tarnishing the just struggle and confusing the people would
only help thic enemy, the
stå tement said.
Tils State T1-L is the T3 t
attack by the LTTE on the
Kali TLIT lidhi GL W:TIT 1:1 it which is facing a threat to its existence for its alleged patronage of the Tigers.

Page 7
The enigmatic lady of
G. W. Krishnan
MALDORAS
in appearance by the all-po
werful AIADMK chief. Ms Jayalalitha, at the party office Irakes news. And the party cadres Celebratic it by bursting crackets.
The last tille sille was sicciI in public was in early October. when she played host to Mr. Rajiv Gandhi. He was invited to unveil MGR's statuc OT Arillä Salai arid address a scal-firit Tally that drew an un preccidented Crowd. This was Iline weeks ago,
Last week, Word went round that Ms Jayalalith; was in town. Thc party MLAs dropped everything and rushed to Madras, in case thclady conde sceld ed ti in cct thicil. Philoc Calls L) her Pocs (Gärdiem residence e vicked the familiar response from the household staff. Well versed in stonewalling inquisitive callers. The Wrd from Pes Garde was that Puratchi Thalaivi (as Ms Jaya la lithil is addressed in party circles) was not there. They would not say wher c she had gone. Nor could they say when she was likely to be back.
A widely-held belief was that Ms Jaya la litha, known for her wanishing act, could be in Hyder å bäd. No one had a cluic about why she was in Hyderabad. During an earlier spell of political hibernation, Ms Jaya la litha was believed to have gone to Bangalore for Inedical treatinent, while, in fact, she had not stirred out of her residence here. But then she has the propensity to make political presence felt With het Silence.
RUMICURS AFLOAT
Her continued disappearance from the scene in the face of a neceived thcat to the Karunanidhi government gave rise to speculation that Ms Jayalalitha may Well be up to sg mething. A report, published in a Tamil Weekly thriving on political gos
Sip, said that in New Delhi retur I till she the awaited not ing President's Naudul yw Els drafi
Meanwhile
AIADMK gro Thirl II na w Lukka Tal : starter. The sp followed the ex AIADMK MLA Ms. Jayala litha The breakaway til be the T expelled Ms a so-called
I Lilleeti Hig. Ty Mr. Thirtin wuk supporters stor held quarters at only to be b Jaya la litha loya intervened and office.
Ms Jaya la litl KELTuna nidhi w the AIADMK II Welt. Il fast i 1 the eviction of from their ow Thill saids of bers thronged E demonstrate th Tcaffir 11 Taith i: They could not party without H
Ms Jaya la lit Once again that be wished away tical scene thr collinicil resolutir actics adopted group. If anyt loyalists have re. full to MIT TI for having acti Teiterated het r them the ATALD)
She also di Crowd-plul ling c. nising a party The occasion w of the MGR st
Gandhi. The marked the firl Congress AIAI

NEWS BACKGROUND
TN politics
she was camping and would not Was satisfied that ification, imposI'll le irl Tamil էcd:
the breakaway up led by Mr st ICIIlains El Inonlit in the party pulsion of three is in July last. Wasil IIIllowed. group, claiming real AIADMK, Jayala litha at general council 3 weeks later, karasl; II lis med the party Lloyds Road, ea tem back by lists. The police se aled the party
a charged Mr. ith encou Taging rebel group. She 1 protest against her supporters In party office. AI AWTOMIK – IlleI residence to cir loyalty and in her leadership. think of the
le.
ha established Els he could not
from the poli"Olugh a general in OT Strong-arm by the breakaway ling, Jaya la litha Elson to be thänkThir'un avuk karasu Wised Ehler. She esolve to strengMIK.
: Ill (Istrated her :apacity by orgarally in October. "As the un veiling atue by Mr Rajiv AIADMK rally 1ning = up of the DMK alliance.
Having made the political point in a telling manner, much to the disconfiture of the ruling DMK, Ms Jayalalitha again disappeared from the political 5. C.: ,
LONG HT BERNATION
Nothing further was heard from Ms Jaya la litha till a week ago, when she came out with a statement, disowning her longtille associate, Mr Natarajan. A former government oficial, Mr Nataraian, came to exercise considerable influence in the party because of his proximity to Ms. Jayalalit ha. Mr Natarajan was viewed in party circles as her hatchetman. Besides, his apparent hold on Ms Jaya la litha had been the source of спwy C0LK SLaaLLS CCaaS Haa0SLLLLLS themselves left out in the cold.
Mr. Thirunavukkarasu, who was at one time counted among Ms Jaya la litha's close associates, had given expression to his resentment (Inuch befo Te the Eventual split in the AIADMK) by saying that Ms Jayalalitha would have to choose between Mr Natarajan and her loyal political colleagues. Ms Jayalitha had thcnopted for vir Natarajan, maintaining that he was her family friend and those who did not approve of this were welcome to leave the party.
Ms Jayalalitha's recent statement, disowning Mr Na tarajan, came as a surprise in party circles. "He is neither my personal assistant nor adviser' she said, without specifying any Icasion for her decision dump him. Some party sources viewed it als Ms. Jayalalitha's
play to bring back to the AIADMK fold the rebel party men, isolating Mr Thirunavukkarasu in the
process. As it is, Mr Arasu, is finding himself increasingly margi nalised and is going through a lean patch. He ha even taken to acting in films,

Page 8
I. A. welcomes ceasefi regional self-governmel
|Ilternational Alert
appreciates
tit - t13
Government has responded to the LTTE's ceas January by declaring a 7 day tentatiwe Cea
4th January.
Echoing demands from inside as well as
Lanka, International Alert
Government and all
political parties in
calls upOn the S
te
take this opportunity to make a serious and
of regional
Lited Sri Larka,
self-government for the Tamil pe
This could well
be done
LLLK LLL LLLLCL LL LLLLLLCL CLLLCaCHCCLa HCLLLLLL countries around the World Without impairing
says I. A representative
Colombo.
he international com Il
nity - long concerned with the grave situation in Sri Lanka - should Welcome in principle the unilateral ceasefire by the Tamil guerilla LTTE as from 1st January 1991. The international community should look forward to a considered and pro II1pt constructiv C Tcsponse by the Government of Sri Lanka.
In Sri Lanka as els cwhere in the world, experience shows that a ceasefire, in order to be In ore than a tactical gesture and actually be conducive to meaningful peace talks, must be accompanied by practical guarantees and be impartially monitored.
GUARANTEES
In the circumstances found in the North and East regions of Sri La Inka, where the Sri Lankan army and the Tamil guerrillas have been fighting with big losses on both sides and causing tremendous loss of life and high levels of material destruction among the population, there can be no better guarantec to start with than a solemn agreement by all sides to fully
respect the main rules of the international law of alled conflict.
Such an agreement would immediately test the intentions of all combatants and. Start
building confidence within both
EdLardo
Marino,
the Sri La Ilıkal Tamil guerrilla a the population
In practice th i cùIIirimit Tilent
reléäSë 1ll It to t: hostages:
stop all tor tions of ca. T1e:TS;
stop using mine-clearit
stop recruit boys and
stop bombi populated a
stop all. Te lia Ins includ ades;
stop all acts Of civilia 15 obtaining th all looting
compensatio
allow hillili to all pris
These measure the ceasefire WO transfor IT1 for conflict scelari
Any credible ch impartial monit

NEWS BACKGRoUND
re, urges
nt
Sri Lankan efire of 1st וחסיןfire - fס5
O Lutside Sri Sri Lankan Country to Cleat Coffer ople within
along the пg iп many their unity, recently in
army and the is well as a mong
at large.
15 W iյ1յld include t
and
1.
hostages like any
tull T e Il executives and priso
civilians in ng operations:
i Ing for combat girls under 15;
ng and shelling LITICAS;
Tisa, 15; com civi
ing fc od block
of te TTT i 5 til as a leans of eir support, and Els a w lly of In Cof Cor Inbalta Ints.
Initarian access ones of War.
s accompanying uld immediately the bettet the
Sefi Te demlands oring.
MONITORING
The United Nations I (UN) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) have already been perfor Illing
excellent Work in, Sri Länkä for 5011C tille. The foT IT h5 been present in the form of
the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) in the North and East provinces. The latter has been represented by a delegation of the ICRC rendering a variety of humanita Tian services throughout the country. LaLaaLLLL S S LLLL S S LL S HHH S LL S LLLLLL are bodies foreign to Sri Lanka. but agencies of the international systen of which Sri Lankal is a member with both rights and tluties.
This is why the Government of Sri Lanka could c) I 1 Sider seeking the services of both the UN and the ICRC to jointly monitor impartially the ceasefire and the compliance with the humanitarian glat Hntces, This could conceivably be done by way of wideling thc operational 1: I date of both the UN Id the ICRC il Sri La Ilık now, also in the Spirit of the many preccd.cnts of copcration betwee the UN and thic ICRC in other parts of the world.
IInternational Alert is wel aware of the favourable disposition of many governments to back up in various ways a very sericou 5, since Te and enlightened pcacc-effort in Sri Lanka åt this point - and to cooperare in reconstruction and developIllel threafter. It critional Alert is mainly aware of the cry of the people in war regions
for peace with human rights and sclf-determination with democracy.
A properly nonitored ceascfire between combatants together with the humanitarian guarantees to safeguard noncombatants may be the first effective step.

Page 9
Oilman Bush goes to
Daniel Yergin
he Gulf Crisis began with
two surprises. The first was Sadda Hussein's. His was the ultinate in strategic surprise. He massed 100,000 troops on the Iraqi border and virtually no-one thought they would be used, least of all the Kuwaitis. The second surprise was made by George Bush - that he had created an un pre Ccdiented global coalition, including the Soviet Union, along with the sanctions that have shut off Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil exports. Surely Saddam cver once considerd that the Icst of the World would line up against him as it has Ilor that his felly W. Bi” a thist and bitter arch-rival, President Hafez al-Assad of Syria, could find common cause with the Americans in the anti-Saddam Coaliti 01. Het Illi SuIlderstood thic extent of the changes in the Sovict Union that would prop cl the country that had been Iraq's mentor for 20 years to take sides against him. Now, instead of higher and rising oil prices, Iraq hals had wirtually no o il earnings for half a year. And, in spite of his cvident expectation
that the coalition will falter Saddall faces the im Illinent prospect that the invasion of
Kuwait may have put the survival of the Baathist regime in question. Great il te Timational ewe uts occult for One Teils Cor. That is certainly true of the current crisis. It is about the post-Cold War order, about aggression and sovereignty: the regional and perhaps global balance of power, and about how Saddam would use an expanded arsenal two or three years hence,
But it certainly is also about the O-word ' - oil. Not short -term prices at the pumps, as 5) It say, but about whether a single power will domina te the region that holds 65 per cent of the world reserves of the fuel that powers the global economy,
(Author of THE PRIZE THE EPIC QUEST FOR OFL)
Saddam did n. of invading he wanted Lo of holiday ho Kill Waiti coast. the money and El CCTLC frco II Dil to hig () win phwer that wo dominating thic b) LITS.
The chilrict for the Gulf ci s turprising degri of thcse two Ir El Ed Saddam H1 Els High Noon - deadline - draw Waits for WElla final fice-Off There colul II E difference I Chã ence and yet shaped by oil. the III a. Te fToIII a struggle over these - mem? prevail?
In January 19 of his inaugurat Georgic Bush de it this way. The of the US that the oil and gas knows it and k. He knew, in risk-taking, deal of the indepen ThFlt häd beel Which he had spe year3 EAS EL 1 : du H: " eI11 is tg | :q; aged 18, durin World War. Sh Japanese, he em
hero. He comp year Yale ed years. On gradu
il 1948, le hic obvious jobs on s(1T11c.") 1e of His
father had been the venerable h; Brown Brothers, forc becoming a Connecticut). I off for Texas, f of Odessa, their ting at an oils

War
Jit til ke the risk Kll wait because 2stablish a string tels a long the
He Went in 'Ur power that would idding Kuwait's - and the further uld come from Termaining neigh
and prospects risis are, to a ce, the making Len, George Bush ssein. And Tow, - the January 15 's Incar, the world it may be thc between them. artly be more TE Cte" | exретіClich II la 1 w 5
For both of States locked in oil. Who are And who will
89, on the eye ion as president. clared: "I put y got a president C: The Olt F industry, that 10 W5 it well'". particular, the -making World dcnt o il Ten. the World in In his frillative
lt. i al Navy fier, g the Second tot down by the erged as a war Yr e$5ed a fourlation into 2. lating from Yale passed up thic Wall Street for background (his El partner in Linking firin of Har Timan, beL Senator fTOII Instead, he set, or the oil town Midland starer wiccs company
GULF
painting pumping equipment and then becling an itincrantsals
man selling drill kits at well sitcs.
MCY, — al disease klub will in A Teifica Il si Ice The 1860s is oil on the brain' - and formed an independent oil company in partnership with
other you Ing Ille 1 as eager to strike oil and get rich. It was a world of continual improvisation and nonstop deal-making. "Somebody had a rig, knew of El deal and We Were ill looking for funds', one of Bush's partners said. The company was named Zapata, after a film about the Mexical revolutionary.
Bush quickly mastered the skills of the independent oil man, flying off to North Dakota to try buy royalty interests from suspicious farmers; combing courthouse records to find out Wl103 O. Wilied the T1 i 11 eraill rights adjacent to new discoveries; arranging for drilling crews as quickly and cheaply as possible; and, of course, making the pilgrimage to the US East Coast to round up money from investors.
Eventually, the partners amicably split Zapata in two and LaaLLLL S S LLLLtS LLaL S tLLLLLLLL S LLLL services side of the bills less, making it one of the pioneers and leaders in the development of offshore drilling and production in the Gulf of Mexico al II di a'r Lld the World. He did well. The Bush family was about the first in its Midland neighbourhood to put in a swimi ning pool. III building his company, Bı ıslı also de Ilıcı 115trated that, beneath the amiable and friendly exterior, was a Ill iI col Will. He Wils highly competitive and played to win.
In the mid 1960s Bush helped establish the Republican Party as a force in Texas, which until the had been do II in atcd.
by the Democrats. He won a scat in Congress. Then, after losing a Senate race in 1970,
he was appointed US Ambassador to the United Nations by Richard Nixon. The job had a lasting impact; while Ronald Reagan dis dained the UN, Bush, acting on his own experience, would

Page 10
seck a UN, framework for replying to the invasion of Kuwait.
Several other jobs followed - chairman of the Republican National Committec during what proved to be the worst of the Watergate scandal, US envoy to the People's Republic of China, then head of the CIA for a year or so, He then spent four years campaigning unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for president. In 1980, the man who beat him, Ronald Reagan, chose him as wice-presidential Til 1i1 ning r11:1tc.
The only time that the loyal vice-president Bush was at odds with the rest of the Reagan adlinistration Was Wer the 1986 oil price collapse. The Reagan ad IIIinistra Lion's ' free II1ärket' approach toward energy rested upon a contradiction; after all, a cal Titel, the Orgal Ilisation of Petrol cull Exporting Countries (Opec), was preventing a big fall in the price of oil, thus providing the in centives for conservation and energy developIn ent in the US and elsewhere. But this contradiction remained latent and unt roubling until the price collapse of 1986, which saw oil prices plummet from S29 al bal TT el to Lunder S 1 O). That price collapse also showed something of what Bush thought
Ab Lt. Ji,
毫 :
In April 1986, he tavelled to the Middle East at a title when Iran had the upper hand in the war with Iraq. The neryÜLIS, SI Ludi 5 Td other State5 welcoiled the Bush visit. Bush Te membered how low prices had depressed the US oil industry in the 19505, and he was convinced that the price collapse would devastate the US oil industry and so threaten US security. And he repeated that message all along his trip.
However, bäck home, coluIminists den Counced him for cu Iddling up to Opec and the oil industry, and the White House itself disavowed him. The price collapse was welcomed by almost everyone in the Reagan adminis
8
tration because i words of one R Le World ecolo Russians'. Yet hawe been bor I years since: US meted by 2in b more than eithe Kuwait was pI the in Waisi.
Bush privately that low prices strong pressւII L: til Tiff Which Wil against importe that from Sau. Saudis took the Warning, :15 the US for their ow message of the that they wou Ettentive to the Ileeds of the later, in 1990, reason to be g been responsive
Bush is ills.
Ilia Illy COII Cë II i S beginning With the internation: after Illath of keeps copies ol national's report: 1.Il hi5 (office. who operates on and the way ir misled King H and President Egypt - and th Bush - Ilakes Saddam is a t. and very dange cially in relat and che 11ical
But Bush's st of the January also been sh:1I background. H. toil is criticill I and securitif Iraq keeps K' Bush's View, due collrse, il wear off, be i itilidate al II other Weak stal And Saddam's i the kind of rul by. In 1979, f of the Illajor Persian Gulf the West. We

it would, in the eaganite, "help my and hurt the Bush's Warings let out in the cil output plumarrels a day == :r Wetczucla o T 'oducing before
told the Saudis | yould create
fr :1. US oiI uld discrillilate d oil, including 1 Arabia. The LL als El de liberatic y looked to the in security. The
Bush trip was ld have to be
energy sectl Tity JS, Four y el T5 the Saudis had lad that they had
motivated by in this crisis, the character of Idc in the C. W. Hc Amnesty Inter5 on Iraqi torture He is a politician a personal basis, 1 Whlich SaddlIm Lissein of Jordal Mill brak of ey il tur I1 Inis led hill think that tally un Teliable :TilIS IT1:i T1 thբt:in to Ilul clellir Weapons,
tance On the eve
15 deadline hå5 led by his oil believes that to the prospeTity the West. If Luwait, then, in Saddall will in s the sa Ilctions in a position to diliate the tes in the region. Iwasion indicated les he would play kol IT LIt of five il states of the were friendly to re Iraq to k cep
Kuwait, only two out of five could be considered friendly.
Ironically Bush has had more trouble building broad domestic support than he has in Creating an international agreement, and still faces some Congressional opposition. In an effort to Tebut criticism at home he said on the steps of the Pentagon: Our jobs, our Way of life, our gwyl freedol äld the feed III of friendly countries around the world would all suffer if c{1ntrol of thc world's great oil reserves fell into the lands of Saddam Hussein.' Bush WW! Could not have committed 400,000 US troops and built an un precedented iLlter Initional coalition - and, indeed put his own presidency at risk - if he did not believe those words.
非
On the other side of the battle line in Iraq, oil and
Arab nationalism have been the dominant political forces; and it is, but of that bitci w Lihat thc violent, conspiratorial World of Ba'athism and Saddam Huss cin himself emerged. The Ba'athist - or “renaissance' - party, which was launch ed il Dail: SCL15 in the early 1940s came to ha te
the Westerin Oil companies operating in Iraq after the discovery of oil in 1927. The
party was militantly pan-Arab, ailing to regain Arab "dignity' in a diverse collection of ethnic groups which Britain had split from the Turkish empire after the First World War, and placed LI T1 der a constitution all gwerT1TimeTit. The Ball" ilithlists were fervent in their denunciations of the West and imperialism. They celebrated violence and absolutism in purs uit of their all cm bracing ideology and demands.
Saddam, whose falt her died just before his birth in 1937, was brought up by his uncle, Khirallah Talfah, a fervent Inaltionalist from the Sul ni Arab Iniority, who hated and despised European culture. For both uncle and nephew the lodestar event in Iraq was the pro—Nazi nationlist Rashid Ali coup of 1941, aimed a mong

Page 11
other things at driving British political and economic influence from the country. In the course of that coup, German aircraft attacked British forces in Iraq. When Iraqi troops threaten cd to fire on an aircraft eWaCuating British women and children, British soldiers attacked and the coup collapsed. Taifah was imprisoned for five years for his part in the coup. Afterwards hic Cao T111 ulicated his bitticTness, resentment and ha tred to his fatherless nephew.
Saddam was also shaped by the culture of Tikrit, which Was remote from thic national life of Iraq and orientated instead to the de sert, At least, according to Iraqis from the much more cosmopolitan Baghdad, Tik Tit’s values of desert survival — suspicion, Stealth, surprise and the use of force to achieve one's objectives - were the ones that Saddam absorbed.
It was during the turn ult and enthusiasm that accompanied Egyptian president Gamal Abdcl Nasser’s victory at Suez in 1956 that Sadda. In was recruited int) the Ba'ath party. The antiimperialist rhetoric of the 1950s HT di Nasser’s Woice of the Arabs remained with him ever after, and could be heard in hi5 declarations both befo Te and after thic invasion of Kuwait. Shortly after joining the Ba'athist party, according to Iote, he carried out his first assassination of a local political figure in Tikrit. In 1959, he was one of thic Els sailants in the assassination attempt on Iraq's ruler, Abdul Ka Timin Kassem,
The attack, on Baghdad's main street, railed; and Saddam, wounded in the gunfire and under a death sentence, fled to Egypt. On his return in 1963, he organised the Ba'atist party's underground militia. The Ba'athists seized power for a second time in 1968, and Saddam would soon emerge as the strongman of the .טווregir
In 1973, at the time of the Yom Kippur War, Iraq opposed the institution of an Arab oil cimbargo, Instead, it wanted
all US interes East to bi iI Conaliscal ... Whe countries refuse sold as much pct at rising price: blasted the gove Arabial and Ku ionary ruling ci for their links
Only in 19 finally El 5 sume: of Iraq, repla
Bakr, cousin () president, he lished his al Te reputation for Inany II members party and taki hostage to foi TC before executio hless and emo those he cons threats or obsta 5ettes circulat c East showing execut cd milita played on mea
Tlla dominated by them related obvious was th new dynasty t 1970s the gow the use of nan class, LT i hic Cir At the top 5 Saddall's Talf Wo Uther im Im fa Illilies, the Could trus L. I Ilarried his col ter of KhotỉT{11 brother, General lah - was min (a post he helt in a helicopter Hussein KaIIlel to be both S and son-in-law weapons buyer for the develop and chemical siles and then, sion, als 0 took of Illinisc of
Ine w IT
Iraq had co sionist ambitio and after the po Wer, Iraq cl Coil-rich Kuwaii

is in the Middle Im Inediately natiin the other Arab :d to a grec, Iraq Toleum as it could 5, While Saddam TI I Il cilts of Sal Idi Wait as "Teactircles well known
With America'.
79 di di Saddamı the presidency cing Ahmed all f this Inclc. As quickly cibeldy considerable brutality, killing of the Ba'at hist ng their families e "confessions' n. Hic was ruttionless towards idered enemies, icle:5. Wideo ca,5- d in the Middle the bo die 5 of
Ty officers dist hooks.
aqi regime was
Tikritis, many of C Saddal. Si
e grip of this hilt in the IllideTD1 TM1 eII1 t b:a II cd
Les that indicated place of origin. :A. IThembic T5 dof 1h family and ediately related only people he Ie had already I sin, the daughlhi Talf: h . Her Adnan Khai Talster of defence i un til his death crash in 1989). who happened addam's cousin became chief and responsible ment of nuclear Felip ICTs and Illisafter the invaower the post pi |
Itinually expanls. Both before Ba'athists to ok Hii med that the Was a missing
province. In 1980 Saddam saw an opportunity in Iran during the return of the Ayatollah Khomeini. When he in vad cd, Saddam was seeking Cnticing prizes: control over most of Iran's oil in south-eastern Khuzestan; and leadership both in Gulf and the Arab world in the vacuum left after the Shah gave up the role of regional policeman.
The objective would sound familiar a decade later when he invaded Kuwait. But his WELT, which was meant to be over in weeks, turned into an eightyear struggle, leading Iraq in 1986 and 1987 to possible defeat con top of the cost 500,000 casualties and a huge drain of T է:5լի 11I Ը E է:
He turned to conservative brother' Arab states that he had prevoliusly willified, principally Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, to bail him out financially. He also began to cultivate internationally a new image of being pragmatic, realislic, moderate, and "a man with whom
one could do business'. He also used his new chemical w capons against the Iranians
and, on the side, against Iraq's own Kurdish population. From 1984 onward, the US saw its interests as parallel with Iraq's and those of the moderate Arab states as containing Iranian expansionism. Washington hoped that Iran could be drawn in to "the community of nations' and Saddam, with his back against the wall, fostered the idea,
When the war ended with Iran's acceptance of a truce in 1988, Saddam acted as if he had won. He was further building his own
massive cult of personality. Meanwhile, from early 1990 onward, the signals multiplied
that the "oil Saddam' was back in the saddle - from his stark and belligerent rhetoric to his stepped-up campaign to acquire chemical, nuclear, and other Weapons and un precedented "strong arm' tactics in relation to other Opec countries.
(Сол тіннғd ол раge 24)

Page 12
GWLFA, W. D. W. S. ECOWO WY
From Crisis to Catastr
Fredrick F Clairrmonte
Behind the freedom,
cilitate Western and at defending thousands of
rhetoric of defe the anticipated Gulf W aimed at protecting
regimes tha
dominance ove Israel. innocent Arab
Hundre
iwes
be lost if war breaks out (First
two-part article)
the ace of the Suez
fiasco, Lady Althony Eden te il pestuously exploded that she was under the impression that the Suez Canal Was In ealdering through her living room. It was at this critical juncture that Sir Althony reluctantly acknowledged that the dream-world of Kiplingesque glory had passed: in su Fm, the United Kingdom could no longer sustain its imperial pregetice in the Middle: ELS L. Heilice, t hadחטpitious momטthe pr come to pass the mantle of if Inperial hegemonism to an authentic a spirant, wh 0.5e poliLico-econo Illic Illuscle was all too clearly Langible in the Gulf Il TechTEL II, III w. that Moss El de had been giwe il the bɔ ɔti,
White House spokes men have Illot Lid L15 i F Mrs Bush hãAS railed against the scorpions, the cobras, the blistering desert Sands and blizzard5 that ha ve Il dub ituded il Lo her living room as well. Bush's predicament, as the Self-appointed leader of "the free world' and crusal der Eif the grand är Ina da in the Gulf Eind the sands of Saudi Arabia, is linen viable.
Whether the present te nuous armed peace will be with us for some time, or whether it will erupt into a cata clysmic regional conflagration, is speculative. Whitcy cI the final solution -
Frederick : F Clarfriskrif, da reorg Fried HH Presfortly y ffae'r FfraifftיEו ifffנתנJrוEEu sai Terrier of UNCTAD. Althar of Firnero books, he is noh a frre MaYTce : ecorTarFIIc"J" carIsHi!raIrir,
pel Ces Or Will T - Bush, his w ob and, indeed the would be not catastrophic. D dulently motival fr:Cast tatt Will hääl, WFC: Illi T fact is that the i 5 a Tel dy s
bick Will:5
It is tl Libiotis : Saddam is as is Win 11 li likc - Lills at present, havi their bil 15 i ness flation rates of coming year rationali, Callcl 1 li
El Il (i = '';LI , ÇESH
Eye Il if y Dle
LID Tealistic issu question still will Bush, his
and Secretary Elow making th with their begga the globē, get tibi froll. A more that factors risi accelerated infla and Eastern F
Spofriarkets
Si D gå pre A Tabia. Il Gulf
Ешгоре US Gulf
EF F' '' R L ELTS 1 US ccnts per gi

ophe
inding ar is
t faք օil ds of
may
- the upshot on
bling economy : World economy hing short of
Jespite the fraued politica IMP lic oil price hikes Li maL l effect, the : Worll ecIl Cly triding briskly
'}lether Presidellt 7 lated als critics to corporations,
tõrel it Calcula Lic) 15 ill8-10% for the , hich iS i I11 (bTc ations based on
rik 5.
accepts i Nun En's Imption the basic Tellilis: Wır: Secretary of State if the Treasury eir TolIIlds going Ts' bowls around is kind of mily Tellisti: e5tīt ng interest rates, tionary pressures Europe into the
GULF
cost estimates is likely to yield a figure of around S70 billion, and this once again in a noWar scenaric.
Thc upsurge in cinergy prices is having devastating repercussions on all costs and, via the Inultiplici effect, on the level of demand. The explosive price increases of aviation fuel that has swelled the deep black pockets of the Seven Sisters is illustrative of the design of calamity.
Richard Whitaker, Airlines Business, estimates that incremental fuel costs could bogost internatioill airli illes expences by S5 billion. A staggering sum but still that of a single seclor, albeit a crucial sector of global services.
edito of
The crisis of global capital with stagflation at its epicentre preceded 2 August; but the energy price boosts hace exacerbated the crisis. The US, with 4-5%. of the world's population, gobbles Lup a quarter of the world’s energy; it cains L1 Illes but 17 Tillica L1 bā Trels per day; half of the OECD's consumption. By comparison, FralIce, Italy, Germany and the UK each use a bolt 2 million barrels per day.
Oil use per unit of GNP reflects the profligate use and abse. Il ce Of : Il en ergy Policy. Helice, the deleterio L15 i II płct on economic growth, industrial output and inflation will also be greater in the US. The boost
World spot Aviation Fuel Prices
27 July
55.8
55.1
57.5
20)
all IIլ
7. September Irser
O. 83
9.) 179
99.1 7
90.3

Page 13
in energy prices is costing the US di] consumer S170 million per day. Only in the very short Tun can Bush liwe with these rising numbers.
The nightmarish implications of thcse numbers take on added significance perceived in the modified trajectory of the business cycle. The touted eight-year cyclical expansion - never mind for the moment Who Were the gainers and losers of this expansion - whose anniversary was to have been celebrated in November has ground to a halt,
Again, Bush's Gulf interwention is coincident with the makings of a global economic depression. Entirely new and violent configurations of antagonistic forces are now being fashioned and superimposed on the already conflict-laden World economy. The mellifluo LIS a Liguries of the Houston cabal now read like a parch ment of Classical antiquity.
At the advent of the 1980s, the US was still the largest creditor nation despite the crumbling (1973) of the Bretton Woods agreemcInt. It Ta T1 surplus es in its cu Irent account as
the dividends on its foreign invest III ents were suficient to offset perennial deficits in
merchandise trade.
By 1985, at reversal had set in. The US became a net debtor for the first time in 71 years. There's only one way out of this Black Holc, that's Tepludiation of the debt with is horrend (3 L1 s Sequiels.
Today, the US is the world's most blatant mendicant living on borrowed time and borrowed m0ney. As a gargantuan palita site, it has been sucking in around 5150 billion y el rly of the world's savings to bankroll the interminable orgy of Consumption, debts and deficits. It has been able to galvanist such profligacy through its military leverage that is u nimpaircd.
It has also to exercise this no nation ha ! because it do Illi fiTnancial systtII niט'יס ,ntinuesטט state, to be the national curren continued dcba, there ill Te. In O Cr to be derived element.
There is no and permanenc markets. The change are a Notwithstanding biting ägainst backsliding in Washington is : ancisc finance Wh ly taken 30-40% US Treasury bo 1989, the Jap: purchasers of st in US Securiti of i TV est The Tit, longer pay, a nič the Toad the bl Westlets Will eroded by US
The tornado
proaching Ja on:Ll in Westo T5 (: lesser extent th and the UK) h sics of S9 hill ritics merely in of 1990. As it the Gulf crisis
dollar will onl si Light after als
of flight cal II the Tc is the mai till Il Tre: 5 L
These sell-off silice it but : S3 trillion Fed by non-US up shot is that be less III ey deficit, and the
lit flows Will lo la Inverse with apprecialti Deutsche Imark the CICIT1ita
TLT est Tate:S
Wit. We a not a transit

been positioned dominance - as i ever do The – lates the World's l, and the dollar n its dilapidated World's intercy, Given the : le of the dollar, "umbs of comfort from this last
state of fixity e in financial Tumbling 5 Ulf ready audible. the daily backTokyo for its its hand outs, iddicted to Japich has in Cor Illa lof issues at Ind auctions. In llege Wete net line S8 () billion cs. That node however, 0. at the end of Ilk of these inbe drastically i Inflatic I1.
of changc is ap = anese institutiind to a slightly se Of Germany El ve recordel Inct ion i In LJS se CLIthe first half lic availanche of thunders in the y be marginally a World have II i tål. Seçildly, rrowing differeny bond yields.
's are important quarter of the r; debt is held invest Ts. Thէ: there's going to to finance the : shift in capital Tiy e di Will the ly, this coincides yn of birth thc and the yen and It upsurge Cof
c witnessing is in caprice by
Japanese and forcign bondholders, but a shift that must also be - Icelated tio , : ili Tiger - fresco that incorporates the bankruptcy of the Sawings and Loan industry and the S500 billion bailout:
dozens of the biggest of US banks that have already folded up or that are on the list of endangercd species.
Public Bond Yields (per cent)
U DA Japa 77 Gerrmary
Dec 1988 9. 4.3 5. DC 989 8. 5.7 7.5 Aug 1990 8.9 7.4 8.9
Sa Iree: Bayerische Landesbank
Added to these woes is the inil pending collapse of the corrupt junk bond market whose defaults will hit an estimated S25 billion by the end of 1990. The patriotic euphoria generate di by Operation Gulf Shield will soon be cooled by the cold knife now moving swiftly to the US financial jugular.
Reverberations of the Gulf Crisis and the accelerated stagflationary thrusts pinpoint that US budget management is Out of control, The deficit is soaring exponentially: according to the Congressional Budget Office data, the July estimate for the Federal deficit for the Cllr Tent year (that ends in October) was S65 billion. That number has mow esca lated to S233 billi CD in owing to the $6.8 billion Supplementary costs for the thrift bailouts. There is no longer any hiatus between plan and reality. This last nu ITmber compares with the Gram I11-Rudman target for 1990 of S100 billio Tn; S64 billion for l99l slidi og tid) S28 billio Il for 1992.
This is a vivid illustration of fina Ilicial Schizoph Telia. It’s not the end of the story: because of the increllental costs of the Gulf operation and oil prices, the current deficit is going to rocket to around $250 billion. This in eans loading a Sizelle chulk of I e W debito to an already pathologically hypertrophied national debt.
II

Page 14
Given going interest rates of around 10% this means that Uncle Sail will be disbursing ovet S300,000,000,000 billion i interest payments. It is these inter-related facets of brute economic reality which turn Bush into a hostage of his own making. The economic condition of Thatcher's economy is on the Top) es symptoi latic of which is that interest rates are now stuck at 15%
The stark tragedy of Bush is that he is not looking - or preferably prefer not to look at the nasty numbers of the national
economic balance sheet. Bush has made the plunge into the Middle East and hic's getting
the plaudits, the encomiums and kudos of the mass media. What his chorus is lot saying is that it's easy to get into the quicksands but scrambling out is quite a different story.
In for te 10ாg haul
Baker's testimony on this score is un equivocal: the US is a there for a very long haul. Senator Moynihan (D) reassures us: There's no way we'll be Olit in a year's time. Listen, we've been in Korea since 1950.
We've been on the Rhine for almost half a century. That's the stuff of Roman legions.
And what about the bills that Te corning in? Who's going to ?Daying the ml טb
The antagonistic bellowing that has already reached hysterical
decibels against the crstwhile 'allies' makes the bellicose declarations of the Шгuguay Round sound like a child
ren's garden party. One senator has already introduced a bill that would require a 20% additional duty on goods from countries that did not pay their 'fair share'. That's only the hors d'oeuvres,
If the historical record is something to go by, embargoes since 1945 have never worked as their masters intended they should, and there is no reason why the current cm bargo should
have a differ has become or enforcers of Aquaba, but it prising if thic i and big comme the IL15h fini not be breakin. ISTäieli täders prime blockade Si Luth Africa. Li finance houses röle in proje S{)Luth Africa.
Iraq has c Troll ticits and a in Baghdad a do i Ing a flour Much bigger muscle will E the blocka dici Michel is, the milli InisteT, iT1 toni it would be ei Various parliam saddle themsey 10 or 20% of bill",
Thic Te is 5 Convert's zeal, COInmentator, Ricard stand. ignored is Fra terest 31 ld the ign trade sect In 1988, Frenc Middle Easthi in 1989 i Lose according to OE
How long can this blockade tE lly divergent intercists
Japan (and les ser extent) h Úll :15 H I1 11115-1 Ilist in quest Japan has alwa ouls of embarg wictim of FIOR" tried to clut CF from the Indon 1941. This play - and possibly FDR was huntigering the Japa
Pearl Harbour, World's second Sumer, depende
two-thirds of I

nt fate. Israel e of the major he blockadic at Would be surlig Israeli traders Fcial banks, given ill stakes, will the blockade. Were le CF te busters against likewise, Kuwaiti played a major ct financing in
normously large ready the bazaris nd Tehra. In are ishing business, financial trading 'e circumventing MIT Gia li li dile: Italian foreign es; "I doubt that sy to bring the Lents al request to 'es with let’s say that US military
mething of thc notes one British in the Mitter and
What cannot be lice's national infact its fore. CT is an acmic. h exports to the t $23.9 billion; to S27.6 billion, CD data. Kuwait a quarter of this. France a fford at is diametricaltČo its Intico Illa 1
Germany to a as been singled upulous opportuif il frec 1 nchi ys been suspicies. It was the 's embargo which f its oil supplies Lesian oilfields in ed no minor role this was what ng for - in trigThese riposte at Japan is the la Tigest oil connL 0th Coil faoT S Clergy.
What makes Japan an u nac
ceptable of Bush's consensus club is its perception of the declining economic power of
the USA. This was incisively a dumbrated by a member of the intimate circle of Japan's decision makcr's and deputy foreign affairs minister Hisashi O wa da, which mcrits quotation at length. (A speech delivered at the Seventh internatio Tal Lisbon Conference on European Security in a Multipoliar world; 8 November 1989.)
"First, the obvious starting point is the recogniti con that we no longer live in what is descTibed as the Pax Americana. At a ti IIle whcin the Inaintenance of order under Pax Americana was the rule of the game, the order in the system was maintained primarily through the leadership of the United States... In such a situation, in both the political and the economic domains, the US tended to practice what might be termed as **umilateral globalism", THC US was in effect, managing the international system through I 11aintaining a universally acceptable order through unilateral leadership. With the arrival of the diffusion of power, however, that is no longer possible'.
The initial consc inst Is-Soidarity on the embargo will be of limited time duration given the exigencies o global competition, and the high stakes involved in breaking the embargo, With the corrosive impact of time, Bush will be pushed onto the defensive because his hegemonic goals and strategies will backfire in quick order.
"An imperial crisis management" as Tom Wicker of The New York Times reminds us (13 September 1990), is something that the Vietnam War Should have taught the nation to question." It hasn't done so yet; but when the countdown comes it could well spell catastrophe for Bush, his policies and the international community.
- Third Forld Nef work Features

Page 15
Undermining 3rd Wol
Michael Prowse on the latest World Bal
he Gulf crisis is placing severe additional financing strains on many developing
countries and threatens to undermine recent progress in resolving the Third World debt crisis, says the World Bank in its latest assessment of debt trends.
Total external debt rose 6 per cent in 1990 to El record S 134Oba (£687.2bn), the bank says. But the bu Tiden is Illino Te su 15 tai Inable thā m in the läto 1980s becausẹ the ratio of both debt to exports and debt service to exports has fallen. This reflects buoyant growth of exports in recent years and thc success of official debt reduction initiatives, such as the plan named after Mr. Nicholas Brady, US Treasury secretary.
But the bank WaT 15 that the composition of debt has changed markedly with a 'significant and unsustainable increase in reliance on official creditors''. There is also a long-term risk that insufficient external finance will undermine the adjustment efforts of developing countries. The need to mobilise domestic savings is thus greater than ever.
The ratio of debt to exports for all developing countries fell from 232 per cent in 1987 to 187 per cent in 1989; the ratio of annual debt service (interest plus a mortisation) to exports fell from 28 per cent to 22 per cent.
A further small improvement in these ratios, which provide a guide to the sustainability
of debt burdens, is
projected for 1990.
The bank says middle-incone debtors have gained significantly from the Brady Plan, which offers debt relief in countrics which agree 'sound adjustment programmes'. Agreements concluded with Mexico, Costa Rica
and the Philippi the face walle bank debt by S ment scheduled with Wenezuela the year will a 82bn Tcducti0L1.
The deals cov of outstanding and will achie'' future payments principal.
Sewerely indeb countries, ninl Africa, have als concessions. B ments have led nicss of S5bn of C ment Assist{1 TCẽ Club of official rescheduled nea on thc concessio. at the 1988 To summit. And do nearly S8 bin i finance for the thic bank’s Spei of Assistance Af tica In tou Intri the su m disburs
These gains, been offset by a Trears oil int. which Tose S7.
The Gulf C severe short-te problems. The
that higher oil atly crt 5e effccts importers the per cent of c next three yea for the poor est : African countri 10 per cent of

GLF
rld Progress
nk analysis of debt trends
nes have reduced of commercial 39.5bn; an agreeto be completed by the end of chieve a further
тег Нbout 305B I CCITIT Lr Citif de bt e big sawings in
of interest an di
hted low-income y in sub-Saharan Won important ilateral agreeto the forgiveyerseas Developdebt. The Paris creditors has lly Sf5bn of cicbt (nal terms agreed "C}I1 ta) : :( b T1 () ri: nors have pledged Cić) Incessional second phase of ial Progra Time for distressed IS, TO lighly twice ed to date.
have
Llp of
բay filents,
1990.
however, 1 build
-Test [[ i * חר
isis is posing In adjustment bank calculates rices and other will cost oil liivilet f 4 rts. We the The burden d most indebted Will be carcr :xports,
The bank says most oil importing developing countries cannot cushion the shock through additional borrowing and will In eed more concessional support.
The withdrawal from ending of commercial banks coupled With Offici debt Teie Schelles ha we caused a Tmarked cha Inge in the composition of die veloping country debt. Long-ter. II debt
to official credits has more than tripled since 1980 and together with IMF credit, now accounts for 46 per cent of
total debt. The share of Official dcht scTwice Il toll debt seTwice has risen to 37 per cent compared with 10 per cent in 1982,
This changing composition of debt represents a big reversa from the late 1970s and early 1980s when commercial banks Were dominant, and a return to the pattern of flows considered T1 CT111 in the 1905. The Clposition of official flows has also changed, with the shire of g Tants, El 1 di Conces sila 1 la Ells Tising sharply,
Aggregate net Tesource flows
to dcveloping countries ha vC risen modestly since the mid 1980s. But they have not been translated into higher living standards because they hawe been In ore than offset by the costs of servicing external capital-interest payments on loans and remittances of profits on foreign il Westellt.
In a reversal of normal development patterns, Third World countries thus continue to export more goods and services to industrial countries than they receive in imports. The debt crisis remains far from resolved.
13

Page 16
Who's in Charge of th “New World Order'
James Reston
WASHINGTON
Who's in "ו 16ן 1991
hild's quicstion; charge of the world ord cr?
Answer: I am in charge: George Herbert Walker Bush. President of the United States,
Q: What do you do?
A: I make bad men behave.
Q: Geel You must be busy. How do you do it?
A: I tell them to get out of countries they've stolen, like Kuwait, by Jan. 15 or I'll kick
them in the ass - excuse me,
I mean I may bomb them to
bits.
Q: Do you own Kuwait? I
In ean Would't you kill a lot
of Kuwait people? Would they like tha L. ''
A: Let me explain. I have to TImakC a D1 exa IInple of bad Tmen OI We'll lewer have new World
order for you to live in. We millist Salwe Kuwait ewe if we have to destroy it. We must gct Tid of m c like Sald da II Hussein Who L Elke over Other countries.
Q: How do you do that?
A: By bluff and bribe or wat if necessary,
Q; I see. But why clo you
have to kill a lot of Americans and Kuwait people to get rid
of this Ille bald II HIT? Can’t y O11 star we hiIIլ ՃլIt?
A: Takes too long. You sce,
We have CowcT 400, OCC) 51 diers in the desert there and it gets to hot for thic Lice in 5 LITT TIET
Q: Is that new? know it got hot in in su III er?
A: That's why I said: Out by an 15 or else
Didn't you the desert
14
Q: Who gawe wat after Jan. 15
A: The UN, tl are united in Ime I who CD mir and they band te people like Sadd
Q: All of ther
A: We We uם 1L? - וז סH11Liסט lot the U. S. W thc World WoeTis li : UN keeps the I ing togeth CT security. Twent hawe joined us ald || 2 a Tic read
Q: But if t nothing, isn't security a Tid security?
A : Yolu'Te t: understand what bad men like
not stopped in President Quayl. great da Tiger patient with dici
Q: Is he an e the other day Mohamed Wis
A: You've he New York Tim You should be in what yell listen to televis
A: I liste. chairmę II of the Staff advising y I liste ned to Sen
A: Plcise di in this house. Listem LC II ne?
Q: Every day, day, I heard yi. sending all tho fend Saudi Arab it, so why I and bring the

e 99
permission for
1ät's whU. They
opposing bad nit aggression, gether to fight an.
ኸ1?
a Worldwide ir side It is er sus Iraq but ; Saddam. The eace by bandfor collective y-seven nations in the descrit y to fight.
he others do that selective not collective
o y cou Ing to happens when Slıdlä T1 at: time. As Wice : said, there is in being too Ett S.
xpert? I heard
that he thinks a prizefighter.
en reading The es haven’t you?
more selective Ted. DJ y Oll 101
"d to the old : Joint Chiefs of Yu to wait, : Ind ator Kennedy. . .
"t use that Ill: 11e Do your ever
several times a
111 Sly We Were se men to debial, and y ibu did t claim victory boys home?
GULF
A: Because Saddam Hussein would still be there working on his atomic bombs and planning to take over thic oil fields of the Middle East and that would cost a lot more money at the gas pumps of the Middle West.
Q: Will Saddam live fo Teyer
A: Not if I have anything to do with it.
Q: If he's los ing S 100 million a dãy because he can’t scll his oil, how many millions dČes he hawe?
A: Plenty, and he doesn't have to balance a budget the way I do. He doesn't have to put up with soldiers telling him they won't be ready to fight by Jan 15, and he titlesn't hal We to listel t0 C0 Ing T css le 1 questioning and even mistrusting his judgement.
Q: What's wrong with talking to Saddam? He says he's ready to talk about a peaceful settle
ment in the whole Middle East, including Israel and the Palesti Illi:A13.
A: It's an anti-Semitic trick, Let nim read my lips. Jim
Baker won't talk to him, eith er: He'll teli him to get out alid get lost and do what we say before Jan, 15, I've had it!
Q: So you'd rather fight than talk Is that the new World Corder?
A: No, I ain a man of peace. As I said when I Was I (minated, I want a kinder, gentler America living in a World of law, but sometimes you have to fight for peace I admit that this problem is very complicat
cd, but I'm doing the best II
T. Q: Please excuse me, Mr.
President, but that's what worries
1.E.
- The New York Ti Fries

Page 17
Media & Human Right
We publish below the General Con reached at a Conference on Media & Rights' organized jointly by the Inte Academy of Freedom and Development of the Naumann Foundation of West Gern
Conference
the United Nations. The
last year.
PREAMBLE
This coTfeTcl cc i Tcaffirms til at halınmanı rights, El Te LIIlıiversal :: Ilıd that the conce for and the conn mit Ilment to, huma m rights ärt: als 3 u Eniwersal. Hu Till In Tights are il di Wisible. This II i el 15 that political and civil rights cannot be separated Troll economic, social and cultural rights.
1. Human rights a Eld hu i Illa 1 dignity äe Tooted iI the different spiritual traditions lind Culturcs.
2, Human rights and human dignity should therefore be the basis of a ne W para digm of development and change.
3. Since human rights Wiola tio [15 are global and not confined to any particular region, meāIningful dialogue On hulIII am Tiglıts abluses III list therefore also in volwe both the North and Suth.
4. Hul Ima il rights and huTTiaTi dignity should be central to a journalist's concerns. As part of this concern, it is wital to protect the freed oil of the media.
5. Attempts must be made to develop the journalist's understanding of all facets of human rights.
6. The journalist T1ust display coli rage and cc Ill Initment. FTited om Illust be exercised with responsibility. Self regulation guided by ethical Wallies should be part of the profession. In this connection, jouTTalists the Inselves should adopt a common code of ethics.
7. Jalur Ia lists sh
O.
12.
with o'Illa 1 L rights. In a Workshops a hu Than righ organised f iournalists a jalur Italism.
The Tc is Illicct the informat hin countric taking into of both Lline E ETELITE
It is - in11 port: th: : Iticulti El Cilt Üf Til B11d in tcr[n nå ti III net W. iԼicrc:15: Լիlt: NGO’s, jour I indi Wiillä 15 : king on hur
Both etäblis
Til SS () l :15 radi 0 a 1: of CC in Ilmu Ili wideo, poste! etc, should b tively to rima Scious of th Of Way's a realizing the
Tի Է Տtiլլtէլ 11 interpreted by the Nor Tegal ti'ye ça: ) 11tוהuth SilנSt more funda T interpreting World.
The media
has also con the exposur violations of

tS
clusions'
Human rnational Portugal, many and was held
ould be provided Taining in human ld itin, COITses, ind seminars (111 ls should be or professional Ildi students of
to decentralise i El systeils witis of the South account the need
rural and Lirhill
HIt to Stillate on and developtional, regional atic) ral in fororks which will
effectiveless CF a lists and other 1 rid groups worman rights,
led methods of LI Ilicatio In such i new III ethods :ation such as s, drama, song, e utili ed efTecke people conèir Tights and Eld means of
as too long becn
for the world th. With some եcզuences. The play a Inuch ICI till role in itself to thic
in the North
tributed towards e of flagrant f h u Iman Tight 5
14.
16.
17.
18.
in the South on many occasions with positive results. What is needed anong journalists in both the North and the South is the reporting of foreign news and events with sensitivity towards the political, economic, cultural and historical backgrounds of the areas they cover in order to ensure objectivity, depth and fair flow infor
1.
As part of this endeavour, there should be effective dial gue between journalists of the South and the North engaged in common human Tights struggles,
The mechanisms within thic United Nations for defense and promotion of human rights should be given a bigger role Within the United Nations systern.
Journalists should co-operate With the United Nations in its campaign to disseminatic information on human rights. This is important since human rights issues are now taking on a much higher profile. Journalisis have a key role in giving forceful expression to this new global concern with human rights.
Any human rights struggle II list give emphasis to be courageous denunciation of human rights violations wheTevet they may occur.
Journalists who have distinguished themselves in human rights work should be recognized through, for instance, the conferment of national, regional and international awards.
Swift and effective mechanisms should be developed to protect journalists Who play the role of informing the public of the truth. By so doing, they uphold the funda IIncintal rights of the community to be truthfully infor Ted.
15

Page 18
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Page 19
TAWWAD MWAOLO
Democracy, Developm the impact of policy
Richard II. Hofferbert (Sree III of New York
Can the policy choices of decis in poorer countries increase the chances for democratic developme research suggests that they can. I the impact of allocative decisions on within a sample of 55 less affluent The findings indicate that counti emphasize human services at the defense or bureaucratic costs in chances for democracy a decade oil The impact of policy priorities is not even when prior political conditions of material well-being are controlled
mong less dẹweloped crum
tries, those which chose in the early 1970s to emphasize human services were, by the mid-1980s, notably democratic than those which chose to spend more heavily Orl defense: 0 buręaucratic in fräi St Luc ELIT e.
This finding energes from analyses Illotivated by the questions:
— C, D policy makers il por er countries alter the conditions of their own political development'
- Or, more specifically, can policy makers äl localite resources in such a way as til IX i Illize the chill:5 for democracy?
This pa per exa Inincs thc lin-- kages between policy priorities and democracy in a sample of 55 less developed countries. The thesis which emerges is that policy priorities given to human Services rather than to central
bureaucracy yield Striking for T de ITh 3 cracy lateT, prior socic litical col diti notwith sta Inding under compara materil 1 condit er; il 135 de' W h ) : Ch 35: Et i services policie the Odd 5 for ( the Tild.
Models of Poorer Coun
1 halwe lo In oral difficulty Cr a cy as a W less Tich court Ti dent variable empirical rese: in Western cap po OTer countrie democratization process. It is western policie countries, Citi

ent:
ion-makers middle-run nt : This E examines democracy countries. ries which expense of the
so later. diminished and level
TEGE
lational defense y better chances El decide or SC, economic and paIls to the Contra Ty That is even bly constrained ions, policy makfel cypcd: C03 1111 tries 211 phasize human 5 thereby enhance Iemocracy down
Democracy in tries
i Titellectual Illor i II positing clicTI Cworthy goal for es CT as a depen - for comparative arch, Politicians itals and within s themselves cite as a desirable used to justify s to ward poor er zens in poorer
countries articulate the hope for democracy. AL di political Scientists have spent considerable scholarly energy to explain variance in attainment and/or maintenance of democracy.
Development economics Imodel 5, do not usually even consider the political features of poorer as interesting dependent variables (e.g., World Bank, 1988), And when noted as independent w: Tiables, political attributes are usually either equated with the етгог terп of cca 110 metric models, Cor Els i Trational In Ciste i Il al otherWise sound cquation. Material development, in and of itself, is the cel LTL l Ludus. Il lly sole Cobjective of ecolo II lists’ inquiry. Democracy, as such, is viewed
as al III leasurable indi incidcilt { 1 - dcliriwallt i'w e of Illter i ail conditions.
The western foreign policy model of det inocracy in l.css developed countries by and large ignores the lessons of social research. It sets as its stated goal the institutionalization of open, fair elections. The condition for their attainment is frce competition between parties led by hCT) est politicialns. To the cxtcit that this model allows for 11H1leäble altecedent:5 t) these features, it posits an el WiTolment free of armed conflict and/or violent in timidation of the electorate. It frequently ignores conditions of material well-being.
So Ille political scientists have counseled postponing efforts to build democracy as a reasonable short-run goal for lost less developed countries. The requisites are too thinly spread for well-meaning but rational people to expect much success (Crozier, et, al.).
Political scientists and sociologists has tended explicitly to
7ן

Page 20
focus on a requisites model, much of which is implicit in the economists research agenda, but often ignored in the foreign policy model. Countrics with I11 o Te die IICCI atic feature:5 tend to be distinguishable from those With less by their socioeconomic conditions. A substantial body of empirca 1 cross-scctional rese
arch, begin Ini Ing With Lipset’s seminal article in 1959, has cü filled thic Associal tirol of
democracy with relatively high |e Wels f industrialization, urbanization, literacy, communication networks, and personal income (Lipsct, 1959: Cutright, 1963; Neubauer, 1967; Smith, 1969; Coulter, 1975; Usher, 1981).
To these cross-sectional analyses can be added a group of longitudinal studies which track the ebb and flow of political change in particular countries over time. These accounts also concentrate the relative impact
of changing material conditions.
on de II. ocracy. (Linz and Stepan, 1978; Arat, 1984; Malloy and Seligson, 1987). The longitudinal analyses, however, also allow for relatively detailed narratives of the role of specific leaders and groups in the acceleration or deceleration of democracy in less developed countries.
The cumulation of research is such as to acquit the field of the charge of econo Illic determinis. In a comprehensive Teview cof empirical democratic theory, Myron Weiner recently observed:
A list of Colli 11 tries in the con teñmporary third World that
have sLIStained de IOCratic iTisti
tutions suggests how difficult it is to find an explanation
that fits all the cases. They inclu de India, Sri Lanka (its CTT et et hic till TTTC) i 1 Thot with 5täding), Costa Rica Weeze Colombia, Malaysia, Jamaica,
Trinidad and Tobago, Papua New Guinea, and the small states of the Bahla Tha Islands, Barbados, Botswana, Nauru, Ci:Arabia, Mallı Titill 15 a Ind, Luntil recently, Fiji. They include several countries that have slipped back and forth between military and civilian democratic
18
Why and hoy
RISE OF BOUT BT galiining > .
---- Democratic II LIlstitution.5 : te
"Sorce: Ronald Inglehar
rule: Nigeria, T in Europe, Greec has grown in rec include the Philip tina, Brazil, and
Läti AICTiCTC) doxically, Illany C are often cited E. theorists as except propositions, but us trying to lin conditions and I democracy in the these are the ver theories need to E ner, 1987, p. 862.
The broad differ the IT105 t rich a Ind cratic coli Ittics are But the Wariance examples as cited within the less ric

Fig. 1
economic development is conducive to democracy
Rising levels of ECONOMIC education, DEWELOPMENT H -- information
cognitive
mobilization
Mass (GEOISE support for Rising levels Authority democratic of Illa SS
olitical institutions participation lite twel CiWIC
Culture'
MODERN (MASS) DEMOCRACY
t (forthcoming). Cultural Change Industrial Societies. MSS Figure 1-1.
urkey, and tidily dispatched. If we return :e. The list to the basic elements of what tent years to has been called the "requisites lines, Argen- model," it is clear that the
se veral othēT
linkage between socioeconomic untries. Para
conditions and de III ocracy has
if the se cases y de Inocratic is to their for those of der ständ the rospects for HiT WITI y cases with 2x plain (Wei)
nces between IIlost de Inc. easy to Spot. et We 5 lic
by Wiener, h, is not so
never been clearly articulated, but it his also il lewer bell accepted as somehow purely mechanical. The linkage is through the political psyches of leaders and citizens. Socioeconomic conditions build or Tein force certain values, atti Ludes, and behaviors of individuals which, in turn, either defi Ille or determine democratic practices. The concept of civic culture' is fundamentally a matter of LLLLLLLaaL HLaLLS LLLL aLLLLLLLaaLLLS orientations (Almond and Werba, 1963; Barnes, er al, 1979).
(’30 :Page, נתנו ueriוHThםC)

Page 21
CWWE MA
End of the road for. .
Ravi Prasad Herath
he last two years marked
the most tribulent period in the history of the film industry in Sri Lanka. The critical issues that confronted the film industry reached a climax in the first part of
December, 1990. The National Flim Corporation Act incorporated in 1971 was on policies that existed during that period. Since the dawn of a new era in 1977 and with the election of a new government, whose policy was to operate an economy, the National Film corporation too had to fall in line with the new trade policy (free trade) where the local importers too were permitted to import films. This concept of importation of films by the priwatc scctor continued u Il til 1988. With the new policy of the present government, His Excellency the Presiccnt declared that all State Corporations should show profits via effective management or will have to face privatisation (peoplisation). With this the National film Corporation's role as a wiable venture beca The questionable. It is a publicly known fact that the NFC became a 'white elephant" owing to mis-management. The arbitrary policies of the NFC however appeased certain individuals with wested interests cal Try on their dubious affairs. This was mainly because of two reasons.
The NFC in the first part of 1989 changed its policies
be the sole importer of for cign films. This move by the NFC resulted in the pioneering importers and suppliers of English III1 o wicis, who un til 1988 imported film for cinemas in Colombo, receiving a blow. The NFC's own policy not in keeping with the general policy of the Government lacked any in centives for the exhibitors towards further gorwth of the cinema segment. However, duc
to the general Gowler In Diment to NFC's monop. would have to NFC's de mand importers and Wester films did not mat offer made by to them was ul suppliers policy lly was not to monopoly. Th mislead to thin re Inedy to Tever, financial loss. re-coupled instan TniTng El II1()Inop () of films, arbit the ter IIns and « El tot fāluc
ment of its pr due to burdcni purse by addi
levies to earn a idise the lossics
The NFC's could have pr disas LicT if the forge ahead had ed, where cin presen lly stagger and maintain had to close its
The foreign supplying films for the past tw. to the prohibiti NFC has deprin goers from seci taillent. The by the non-El. better English si alised by certai English and Ta producers who productions cop. Hindi films.
It is no secret pTC)du CCrS () Yer t er 5 halwe into 5 Lufficient monic t W0 generatic I13 Lankans perm. scized the opp

. . . copycats?
the the
policy of stay (open, listic To le t00 change. The 3 to previous suppliers of in the country rialise as the he Corporation viable and the adoped globaldical With any : NFC being c that the only e the colossal h could be 1 tly by Tmain taly on the import raily changing 'onditions, Was ls the announceof its were only ng the public's Ling lu in necess El Ty. share to slubsit incurred,
Ըն WI1 policy
owed to be a ir dilemma indis to been continuer Tha exhibitors ing to operale their cii The Illas,
door S.
suppliers not
to Sri Lanka years owing we terms by the red the Tlowie ng better cnterWalculum ccated wailability of lms was capit1 suppliers of mil films a Di1d ewelled in local ing Tamil and
that copycat he last few ye
their coffers for the next . A feci w Sri nently abroad Ttunity baying
junk (many of which without rights for exhibition), supplying the NFC during the absence of better English films. In other words the crisis between the NFC and movie giants in the United States deprived several Inoviegoers by a dearth in the availability of good English films. It is seen today, regular patronisers of cinema have moved to other spheres of cnt crtainment owing to this unwanted interference of providing good entertainment.
Due to a steep decline of cinema patrons throughout the country despite the increase in population, the number of cinemas islandwide ceased to operate oWing to the non-viability aspect in the exhibition industry and the absence (fivestment in cinemas. The details given below would show the industry's gradual anticipated disappearance
if no remedial action is taken:-
1) In 1979 the admissions totalled over 74 million and by 1988 admissions declined to less than 03 million.
2) The cinemas operating in 1979 was around 365. Today the number has dropped down to approximately 240.
3) The revenues from box office admission tickets in 1988 covering 250 cinemas islandwide approximately 500 prints released that year, was only about Rs. 150 million oria monthly average of Rs. 50,000/-, per cinema or Rs. 3000,000 per print; revenues from other activities related to the cinc ma operati 05 Was al Tould Rs. 50 million making a total revenue of Rs. 200 million.
4) A conservative estimate of the total seating capacity Of the 250 cinemas in the country (on the assumption that a cinema has 500 scats
19

Page 22
and operates two shows a day on week days and 3 shows on Saturday and Sundays, and no shows OL Poya Day) is approximately 100 million. The actual cinema admissions for the whole of 1988 was e 55 ha n. 3). QI al average daily admission rate of 86,000 island wide conpared with i Rupa vahinis prime time viewing public
of ower 3 Illilli II, 5) The capital outlay in the industry at present market Wallies is csiliated as being in excess of Rs. 1,000 Illillion including the investment in
laboratories and working capital tied up in locally produced films. 6) The revenues, when Telated to the estimated capital outlay, reflect the present
state of thic indust Tiy; El RS. 1000 million oli tlay should generate a profit of at least Rs. 100 million and not revenues of Rs. 200 Illillion. Today, in everybody's lips, is what should be done to Te Wive the film industry, which has reached a very low ebb. Shutting out the world's leading distribution companies of the Motion Picture Export Association of America, the National Film Corporation has yet not realised what could have been expected by receiving good Western fills. The Ilbers of MPEAA control over 80% of the world's film production and distribution
network, supplying not only affluent countries, but reaches developing countries in other
parts of the world.
The new destinations recently opened out to them are South Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan lindi Soviet blocked countries, operating under a free trade a greement. Plans are being negotiated for China to receive good Western films from MPEAA. The NFC's arbitrary attitude imposing prohibitive terms and conditions, still hoping that MPEAA would continue its supplies into Sri Lanka is only an attempt to strike one's head against a rock. The NFC having becn operated making colossal losses due to its mis-management and ineffi
20
ciency was recei) 1 () 11i1 1ior1 tC) matters. With th 10 milliam still not proved to ol effective and eff mellt. Thc pre-wɛ the NFC to opera Tefers bäck 10 the earlier gove down a socialist prevailing policy general policy government, and rally under the ment the Corpo! be ble tC, CT its hegging bowl Recently an an Luc Ministry od the World barık's directed towards cinell as and reha and da Imaged i well for the 111 il dividuals i II have brought th present position W1 : Tliet I WW T an atmosphere of cry agaist libe importation of affect the local protectors, the However, the Ti to be that thics hlwe been Tidi: copycat producti has degraged th Leading local industry hawe and advocated of good foreig I a largc invit After all compi industry health As long als Tror railee BailT authority and their should be Firlỵ qu:1Tt ữT | of the country יוון - ט"ו 1:ךWWE - I present Chairm: Board Officials
enough to pe without fear.
Thic MPE AW
been of qualit expected norm the culture : What only importation of pirated movies

tly loaned R5. straighten up is loan of Rs. the NFC has perate viably by ective manageLiling policy of te as a monopoly he past when ninent had laid ic policy. The contradicts the of the present tillere for E Tåttlpresent g. We TIa tio will not Itille carrying in the fliturę. III by & ווז ט:1n t וסיון Finance that effico Its, llas been building of new bilitating closed Cinleillas : LiguT5 dustry. Ceir tairn the trade Who NFC to its hawe got panicky "ying to C Teate tur Iloil. Their Talisation of the films that it will industry and its NFC, is false. a truth seems e producers who g high with their ions are nö doubt Le 10 c:1| 111 d'll St.IV. producers of the always praised the importance fills to cater to : going public. ctition milkes any
Y. the Public Perdi exercises its acts impartially
C, FeT from hat the culture will be affected. doubt that tilt 1I and the CensÖT Te con il pictc lt for their task
A products have maintaining the s not da magiTg , untryרF the Crר calle from the 3rd grade and which unfort ill
ately was seen in the last two years. It is difficult to say that there is no agitation and claim our iIn Inatters pertaiIning to liwing,
dress, and food etc., are not made, it is doubtful of the motive of the agitation but shout from platforms calling
for the protection of national filiis. It is i Indeed a Tine w Illa la dy, if - Illot for these cralıks wyho are now coining forward as Martyrs for the Sinhala film industry. We have always had an industry where we could be justly proud of other than to acclaimed film personalitites who a Te To w takin the back scat and watching with interest the indiocrabies of the present lot of cranks. These acclaim cel personalities through their cxperience and exposu Te have realised the walluc and benefit of foreign films and its impact on the local moviegoing public. The present hulle and cry I hade by a s Illiller section of the producers is to fool the easil y gulible patron and of course with the Literior Illotive of enhancing their pckets. The gover I1 ITh ents proposial to liberalise the importation of films into the country whilst con the Comic had hlas to be hailed as H. begi I1 ning . of a neW era to the i 11 dus try while put an end to sued elements.
Why should we be concerned with the faite a Waiting the Copy cat clan, after all is this the segment that decides the fate. El tid fullture of the Sinhala film industry?.
Democracy, development. . . (Cadourir used frigorri page F8F) Economic and other laterial social conditions find their way into politics through the hesits and minds of individual people. Within recent literature, the requisites model is nowhere more succinctly presented nor more cloquently elaborated than in Ronald Inglehart's forthcoming C. Yr ural Charge. Figure I, Te produced from the draft Inglehart manuscript, presents the skeleton of the requisites model. ECC)- nomic development, in its most laterial sense, is the root condition, linked through a complex process which yields modern (mass) democracy.

Page 23
Civilization and the N.
Tisaran ee Gunasekera
agree With Dr. Kumar David that a 13th (or a 21 st) anniversary is certainly a reasonable moment to draw up a balance sheet'. And what better way to start off than with a remark Imade - by Comrade Wais u dewa Nanayakkara in Parliament (as reported in the Sunday Til Illes and i un contradicted by him) that if a MP can duplicate the work of a PC (i. e. Police Constable) a Kissian Iria (servant Woman) could be appointed to do the job of a M. P. equally. A bit of a surprise for those who thought that the airm of a Marxist party would be to fight fora syste wherea “Kussianna' too can have a say in running the country. But then, throughout its (Inercifully) not so long history, opportunisin has been the name of the game for the NSSF. II) fået if Dr. David's "party' excelled at anything it was not practicing what they preached.
Let's start off with the latest act of in consistency - the NSSP, which supposedly came into bcing als an act of protest against the class collaborationist coalition politics of the left and the resultant betrayals of the working class movement, is today clamouring to be admitted to
the la test Coalitiữ T1 - the ° 5 party "'alliance' led by the SLFP. II1 fıçt 1rı a Tecent inter
view. With the Sri Lankadeepa, Dr. WickITH Imabahı Karuna TH tine stated clearly that the NSSP accepts the leadership of Mrs. Banda Tall maike and the SLIFP. Obviously the NSSP which is revolt c.d at the idea of a Kussia Imma being able tio , do the work of a Member of ParliaTıcıt hı:45, 1 10 objection to al II ancient, despotic feudal matriarch from a Walau wa taking over as the leader of the country. Perhaps a slight change in the slogan "Workers of the World Unite' is in order - to suit the new party policies - "Unite with the ficudals of Sri Lanka.
particularly the species'. After (Sorry - Dr. W. dara Karuna rat it of trouble he tic) is col only the Kand: low country fe singular achiev the first by he's linked by Kandya, Lil Walau tion leiaf llet of second by expos length over his til to the BT in his article on
il II Warda Tie.
Eith CT-TOT, LO is Lisl Al, 3r llis with a very s "The crisis of in a deter Illin Ell for T1 S II of u promise' says Was done to ge led coalition an
EWICI), a C 115 C) rece: L PL Tilia II: Provincia CYLII the SLFP is as devolution and C: Lucil 5 iš či vyt attempting to Si ha la Buddhi It fict thic SL its only stated to the ethnic DPA proposals e up withוון רct either. The S NSSP i Wyt 5 s) unite with, is in bոլIrge nis buւ and a gainst al II tantiall devoluti people. One c. that thic, NIS SP spirit of sacrif posed principle:
II - 1983 li li us (led by Day the Independen OT the Clib series of disc political parti: (excluding the

SSP: A reply
females of the all Cem Bahu ickra maba hul Banne) went to a to te L5 t Illected to It yan feudal 5 but udals as well (a CIIlent indeed!) - mention ing that Πna Triage to a 1Wli i Til hi5 elec1988 it is stulating at great Textie circllug-Ida Waluwa the: lElite Ramani
Wid got it wrong "party' is blessed h1JTt mcmory. — mgTitlayנווו! טth a tin to reject principled conII". David What et li l SLIFP Count to II wonder"?
ry look at the tary debate on 1cial shows that wi Tull : Intly linti anti provincial I and is still lay the card of ist chauvinism. FP hläs discal Tided political solution proble 11 - the
— ad has Ticht ап Hlternative LFP, Illit le
desperately to ot c}in Iy felLI dill — also chall Willist y ki Tid of substhe Tamil lt but adit cipit Comises the ice - of its slip. 5 that is,
1984 a group of a Pathirana) in t Students Unil 3 Cai Impuls had a
1155 long With all is and groups UNIP di allgð
the SLFP - since we regarded both to be equally reactionary) as part of our search for a revolutionary vanguard organiZätỉ[]. Th. And ~I - m11$t: 5+1ỹ, 110 mẹ of us were attract cd by thic NSSP in the least - despite its radical rhetoric, it's 'Il orc revolutionary than thou’ attitude and its self proclaimed special relationship with the ISU. (Onc of the things we found most objectionable was its vacillation Om two (not un Tclated) Crucial Central issues - the ethnic problen and the SLFP. The NSSP regarded the armed actions by pro Marxist Tamil groups (I'm
not talking about the killing of civilians or planting bombs in Colombo built - about : Tilcd
expropriations and the attacks On Liny and police per5on 11) as acts af terrorism; and 5aid that the SLFP is more progressive than the UNP. No w 31 der they had only one student supporter in the Colombo Campus right up to 1986 - and that was E ti me yhen the anti TVP internationalist left was at its strongest. (I don't think the NSSP5 5tatllis there is any diffecit II W.
And incidentally the NSSP maint aliis the wrong Iness E of terrorism before everybody by supporting the EROS which carried out the bombing of Pettal and Elephant House, Such amazing clarity! Sll rely Dr. David's party' is an example to all of Lls - in what's not to be dome. Dr. Dawid proud 1y proclaims that the NSSP has passed the test on the national question. That certainly comes as a surprise - specially to those of us who had been un fortunate enough to Witness its vacillation (In this issue And ils wäTius state Ing It8 fTC m tim: to time sole of which Teek of Sinha lil Racis, il- Li5 tiem ta' DOT. Wick Tal II1b3 hil Kal. Till nå Tatne on the subject i F1 a 1 op en letter to the till President J. R. Jayewardena dated 1st September, 1983:
21

Page 24
"If these madmen (the UNP Guvernment) continue to function for much longer, the Sinhala speaking people who lived in this courtty for Over ll) y el T5, brilvin foreigl invälisions, will som fill victim to a Crossfire bet weten invading foreign arrnies. This people Who hai Wei La pro L d and continuous Culture will be shot like dogs by Indian, British or Alerican troops Ruwanwelisey, the Sigiriya frciscoes and the Templc of the Tooth, and all other 75 uch, er ei hunaints of civilisation which is thousands of years old will be transformed into heaps of Tubble. Tlen. Lebanom wiII Tilde into the background. Then it is We alone, the Sama 5 artmajists of the now proscribed NSSP who will fight for the defence of the Sinhala heritage and for future generations of humanity." With such "principled positions" on the ethnic problem one is not surprised that the NSSP was “un successful in its efforts to establish a basc among the Tamil people'. Incidentally I wonder what Guru Trotsky would have said about Bahu’s PTL1 TT1ỉse to tdefend the Sinhalti heritage. After all, chauvinism is perhaps the one thing we cannot justly accuse Trotsky of. If, as Dr. Dawid Says the national question was the liit Imlu s test between civilization and the political pigsty of racism and opportunisill, it's obvious where the NSSP fits in. Poor Pigs! Whatever has he got against the Ill
The NSSP is H becom CF civilized values, says Dr. D. This is more thaП a bit difficult to believe if one is aware of the performance of the NSSP during the biggest battle for civilization and civilized values in recent times - the struggle again the Pol potist JWP. The JWP, as we know, claimed the lives of thousands of leftists including Wijaya Kumara na tunga and a number of NSS Per 5. What was the role of the NSSP in this titanic battle for civilization? One example, a personal recollection, would suffice. At the funeral in Anura dhapura of Nanda na Marasinghe (a hero of 1971 and the second left ist to fall prey to the JWP barbarism after Daya Pathirana leader of the ISU) Linus Jaya tillake of the NSSP made a speech which did not contain a single reference to the JVP In fact, a person
LI In acquaintcd liste Thing to th have thought th: Gandhi and J. conspired to murder) Ma: Kumla. Ta na tunge the ISU (and i tid the dead Pad IIla MäTäsi Only ones to I in their speech being at the f Struggle agains Ilıuch for bein. civilized Walu maintained tha' collapse in thi that they (the Over the major and thus did no a hard line vis This was the by the leaders : allike. Wicilli Li Inis III - what an bination - but the story of th past and presé (a tiпy portiоп recounted here)
After 13 yea mai kes M. KLII til the wh cell 11:15, a CiTcle. It yiyi II E the NSSP Ice ted to the hall Ros Inead place III e Illber Of Ele Left Coalition perhaps not. if the CP have t probably becau like competitic a T : Lu||1 der Stati consider that beat the hic II o to clutching a hopefully things this time aroun that the NSSP for the hul Iman JWPers (yes, the for the butcher of leftists i NSS Per's like An the NSSP does a pinch of 1 iba the latest challw
FileL1d li s II b:
til II lis T1, chlau will Bahu’s family ti
What an un
nati 01 that woul

With the facts, speech would it somehow Rajiv R. Jay cowardena hurder (and did rasinghe. Wijaya , Dharmase of the ISU leaflet) In Eli's widow nghe were the Il el LiCl the JWTP es, S3 inlich for orefront of the t barbaris ml. So g a beacon of s. The NSSP the JWP would "C" DIt h15
NSSP) can win ity of the JWPers | Will to take -a-Wis the JWP. lin C maintained nd the followers ion and Opportu|ll Inbetätä ble comthat after all is e NSSP - as it's ont performance of which I have clearly indicates. Is (or 2 - if it ar. David happier)
most come fu e Complete when El gainst adminit* wedi portals of - t1s the Ti Լի lates L. SLFP - But then again the LSSP and heit way, most Se they don't in Their fears 1 ble when you the NSSP can W when it comics “sari pota). But will be better d. At the rate is campaigning rights of the Oiles responsible of thousands ncluding some anda Nawaratne) deserve to have rbarism' too in in ist coalition.“ barism, opporis in and Dr.
hea table combi|d Էյe!
BREFLY...
(Ca37 ir led ført page II)
port item in Sri Lanka will be tea. If tea auctions are held up in Colombo for m Circ than five Weeks there will b c a major storage probien too, trade sources said.
Prcsident Pre madasa has dircicted Trade Minister Mansoor to work out contill gency plans. State officials Wcre also discussing essential food supplies and distribuLI1.
A formeT World Bank and IMF consultant has been appointed to head the Banking Commission. Dr. M. R. P. Salgado Worked in the Central Bank in its carly years. He left to join the IMF.
Other members of the Banking Commission will be Messrs M. D. D. Pciris D. S. Jaya su T1 dara, Susil Siriwardhana, C. Guna singham, K. Gunaratnam, Professor W. D. Lakshman and Dr. A. M. M. SahabdecDı.
More than 210,000 Sri Lankan Tamils are low in Indian refugee camps after fleeing the war in the north and cast of the island, the Indian Minister of State for Holic Affairs told Parliament. The government had spent 15.5 million dollars for food and other relief measures since 1983 when the first exodus crossed the Palk Strait into India, he said.
9 Insurgents in India's Assam state has links with Sri Lanka's Tamil separatist ETC)ւIբ the LTTE. state gover Il or D. L). Th:ikur told a press conference. Investigations were on to unra well the connections, he said.
e An Irrigation Depart" In ent carpenter who retired after 37 years of service, in 1963, is still waiting for his pension.

Page 25
A selected list of
Sri Lanka Mosaic - Environment, T
and change HWC SWC
Seasonality and Health: A Study o environment of ill-health in five by Godfrey Gunatileke, P. D. A. Fernando, Eardley Fernando
A Colonial Administrative Systeחן וח
by Dr. B. S. Wijeweera
Sepala Ekanayake and Ex Post Fact Hijacking of International Aircrati Sri Lanka Domestic Law incorpo International Law by David S. Awerbuck
The Pilgrim Kamanita - A Legendary
by Karl Gjellerup
Stories from the Mahavamsa
by Luciеп de Zoүsa
Stories from the Culavamsa and oth
Tales by Lucien de Zoysa
Conservation Farming - Systems, Te
Tools (For small farmers in the by Ray Wijewardene & Parakrama
Marga
61 Isipathana Colombo 5, Տ

Marga Publications
an, continuity
15. OO 3OOOO 12.OO 26O.OO
f the socio-economic
locations 1.O.OO 185. OO Perera, Joel
OO 16O.OO.6 חסTransiti
O Legislation: 4.OO 90.OO "t
atES
225.00 17.50 8סחaוחסR "
3.50 60.00
er Historical 3.00. 47.50
chniques and Humid Tropics) . 750, 120.00 Walidwantha
Publications
Ma Watha
iri Lanka.

Page 26
Oiliman Bush. . .
(Corriled fr Pagச 9
In June 1990, Saddam tal ked about using the "oil weapon', a concept that had got out of fashion a long exporters who had learned the Icssons of the early 1980s and who had concentrated on rebuilding market confidence. By July, he had succeeded in intimidating the other Arab oil exporters including Kuwait, and had assumed a new role in Opec - that of "enforcer'. By the end of July, the only country producing more than its agreed quota was Was Iraq.
But by pouring in ordinate resources int its militāry machine, Iraq had fallen into deep fi II a. Inicial trouble. The i Iwasio Il of Kuwait offered Saddam an apparently easy Way to replenish his coffers and write of his debts. But he was also motivated by the same grand objectives that had led him to invade Iran a decade before - to becomic the do III i Tan L A Tab lealder and a military superpower.
Herc, he Inis calculated the international response. His IllsCäcili il 1980 abil ra almost cost hill his regime, he was saved by his willingness to impose huge sacrifices and and by his willingness in winning over countries that only recently he had castigated. N) scruples stopped him from abruptly changing course then. Later it took only hirn only Fl moment, after the invasion of Kuwait, to hand back to Iran all that Iraq had gained from the wa T. FTom Sulcz, hic jis applying the lesson of splitting one's opponents. He also has a tool not available to Nasset
- World television - and he is effectively using it.
Rationality says that there
Will be no War, and no doubt. diplomacy and "peace initiatives' will intensify in the next several days. But was so often happen because of mis
calculations of one kind or another, and there" is now much Toom i for mis Lund cr
standings and mistakes.
24 -
Oil may have Bush and Sadd this common frontation, but CO Tm Tm Om grab LI T) shaped by the gtve-and-take
and the other spiratorial and tics of the
George Bush c. easily understa Sadda Hussei know that he were badly mis on the eye of Bush will put in any promises dictator. He actions.
Nor can Sad Bush. Saddai Weaknesses of

brought George Husseill to int, this conthere is little טנזנא נIט טetWם 2.cn, pragmatic, US politics by the conabsolutist polil'athis party. tainly does not the Thind of but he does ld other leaders :d by Saddam 1e invasion. So ery little stock from the Iraqi will look for
an understand Ilmu 5 t k Tow the is own Illilitary
force Inuch better than the west, in spite of his rhetoric. But With little experience outside the Arab world, hic is probably being mis led by the discordant US political debate that he is attentively monitoring on the Cable News Network in Baghdad. He risks the sa Inc mistake that Imany have made over the years - under rating George Bush. The Iraqi may not gra sp. how Bush secs the stakes nor recognise the determination in the President’s cha Iacter. He also probably underestimates Bush's willingness and resolve, acting LII der a UN Ilandate, to meet force. This may be yet another Inis calculation, which sometime in January or February, could provic to be a very grawe one for the World.
BONAPARTE RISEN
So you are old at the vir do 14 Listeriing Io Ihe rain Tipi-Wirger through the du sk Pluck Swisi ard slo Ho refra ir Frar? The dripping Putrieg a rīd the clo ye Held like a world, tury troubled, old, II a rnello, l'ampliffrarrie?
No far as the right crake flies Dusk is not hushed By slov salling ra in and lamplight. Fierce gale and I'lart e together Tear the frees and the right PVith flare and guri Na I irre to PPT edifate or Death Wher it corre, ra the yourg,
Mmy Eble a to your 14 virido Why yoLu redita re How the yourg in death, resurrect You, While i theiro - 11'orld crErrible 5 In Jour noble, global, gambles.
U gruna tillåke

Page 27
ཟ
Why there's so in this rustict
There is laughter and light banter amongst thase ritral la TT15ls, Ļļ, hir aço busy Siarting Cut TibiaCÇça LH LL SH LLLLLLS S L LLLLLHHLH KLL g LLLLLLgs L gaLLll
barris spread uut in the ritid and L-LITEIT, inter mediate 20:12 where the arable land remains falci, iiiiiing this if sista.
CLLLLLKS LLLL LLLL LLLLLLaS LluHCL DD LHLBLBLB Oa C lucrative cash crop and the green leaves turn to TLLLLSSSL al KalLLa L LlaaLL LLS 00La LlLLL LLLLL LGLaL
afinually, fut perhaps 143,0XI TIJIal folk,
 

ENRCHING FRURAL LIFESTYLE
und oflaughter obacco barn.
Tobacco is the industry that rings employment to the second highes: IILITiber of people Art: this: people are the tobaccc. barn owners, the tobacca gryers 3rd thr: whi) . Kirk for them, Cri the lard and in the basis.
Ll LtllleeS LLL LLLLtetHtHCLLL LLL eeLGLGLHLH LLLCLCOHHMLa GHLHLLS
corrille life anda so:Liro futura. A good Erough T2a5', 'or la Lugh! Er,
Ceylon Tobacco Co. Ltd.
Sharing and caring for our lard and her people,

Page 28
We are a different kind of
There are a multitude of Guard
O They who guard the free
They who protect the ba
O They vv ho gag &à e den each of us is entitled as
Each of us is a Guardian to others
dependency in day to day life.
But the difference is oekar (* Jara:
for your future. is a are trustec
money, gaiding yar or Bow to
and you depende Pats tomorrow.
So
For your
PEOP
A Different
 

Guardian to you.
ians during your lifetime.
2 dom of speech & expression.
asic human rights of mankind.
hocratic freedom to which
citizens.
Whe look to us for their
z ras kaip rests on our deep concern
Guardians of your hard-earned
spend and how to save for you
Reach out Today
life-long Guardian
LES BANK
Akind of Guardian for you.