கவனிக்க: இந்த மின்னூலைத் தனிப்பட்ட வாசிப்பு, உசாத்துணைத் தேவைகளுக்கு மட்டுமே பயன்படுத்தலாம். வேறு பயன்பாடுகளுக்கு ஆசிரியரின்/பதிப்புரிமையாளரின் அனுமதி பெறப்பட வேண்டும்.
இது கூகிள் எழுத்துணரியால் தானியக்கமாக உருவாக்கப்பட்ட கோப்பு. இந்த மின்னூல் மெய்ப்புப் பார்க்கப்படவில்லை.
இந்தப் படைப்பின் நூலகப் பக்கத்தினை பார்வையிட பின்வரும் இணைப்புக்குச் செல்லவும்: Economic Review 2005.04-07

Page 1
July 2005
Apr.
圈 * * * 异 翁 o © 释 〔
Α
 


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Ove/
The Catastrophic Tsunami disaster that Struck the Coastal areas of Several South Asian and South East Asian COuntries including Sri Lanka On 26 December 2004 left a trail of destruction in terms of human lives, properties, livelihoods and sensitive ecosystems of the affected COuntries On varying Scales. Apart from the physical damages the Severe impact of the ISunamion the family Systems in the affected areas Calls for COnCerted efforts at Several frontSSO as to heal trauma Suffered by thousands of people, particularly Children.
In Case of Sri Lanka, the most affected COuntry after Indonesia, the Severe ShOCk and anguish Caused by the deadly tsunami Were SO immense and it took a few days for the people to recover their Senses. More than 30,000 people perished Within a few hours and thousands Were reported missing. A large number of buildings, hOUSeS, Schools, and government Offices Wiped away While other buildings Suffered severe damages. Apart from destroying Coastal tourism infrastructure and the economically valuable Coastal eco Systems the tsunami displaced thousands of people and deprived of their livelihoods. In the fisheries SectoralOne the IOSS Ofemployment is estimated to be around 100,000. Twelve Of the fourteen Coastal districts of the COuntry namely, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, TrinComalee, Bitticaloa, Ampara, Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Colombo and Gampaha Wereaffected by this disaster.
The Tsunami2004 the Worst ever-natural disaster in living memory of Sri Lanka also exposed the sheerinadequacy of proper disaster management mechanisms of the COuntry. The initial inaction of the authorities in providing urgent relief to the Victims Was unaVOidable to a certain extent, given the Sudden Onset of the disaster and its magnitude. However, in the immediate aftermath of this catastrophe thousands of Volunteers risked their lives in Order to provide urgent relief to the Victims, exhibiting the latent humanity and compassion of the Sri Lankan SOciety. SOOn after this disaster the State machinery Was activated to handle relief Operations Ona Warfooting and several NGOs, and Other Organisations as Well eXtended maximum COOperation in the rescue and relief Operations. A Compassionate nation rose to the Occasion and poured donations to the Rehabilitation Funds. Notwithstanding the initial shock and desperation, Sri Lanka as a nation faced the ISunami disaster With exceptional COurage and determination and the relevant authorities immediately devised short term and long-termstrategies for reconstruction and rehabilitation.
Dr. P. B. Jayasundera, Secretary to the Treasury in his Independent Commemoration Lecture delivered at the Central Bank Of Sri Lanka On "The Impact of the ISunami Disaster On the Economy of Sri Lanka"the text of Which is being published in this issue indicates that asperestimates Sri Lanka has lost assets to the value of US$1,000

*vie)1v
million Or 5 percent of GDP. This Consists of housing and private property, transport, infrastructure, fisheries, harbours, hotels, restaurants, Schools, hospitals, Water and electricity Supplies, telecommunication etc. In this context the country is called upon to face a multitude Of Challenges in its massive rebuilding effort. As Observed by Dr. JayaSundara these challenges include planning and implementation OfreCOnStruction Strategies, abSOrption CapaCity, management Of the macroeconomic environment, mobilisation of resources for reconstructions, Supply Constraints particularly in respect OflabOLII, materials and skills, legal issueSandthegOVernance aspects pertaining to allocation of resources, their use and aCCOuntability and stakeholderparticipation in development.
In addition to the generous foreign assistance all resources at Our COmmand have been mobilized towards this gigantic task. As Of noW Sri Lanka is progressing Well in its massive rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts in several fronts simultaneously With utmost confidence and determination With the able backing and unstinted Support Of the political leadership along With the establishment of appropriate disaster management mechanisms in Order to tackle this type of disasters in future. Large number of players both in the State and NGOsectors With the generous Support of the international COmmunity are engaged in this task. ം്
Dr. SujeeWaAmarasena, Head, Department of Paediatrics, University Of Ruhuna in his COntribution to this issue highlights the Vulnerability of tsunami affected children and several programmes being implemented by Various actors to address this issue.
Sri Lanka's fisheries Sector Which enjoys a Considerable SOcial and eCOnomic importance Suffered heavy losses due to the tsunami disaster in terms of human lives, Shelters, boats and fishing gear. Besides, the loSS incurred by the Fisheries Harbour Corporation due to the damage Caused its ten fully fledge fishing harbOurS is estimated to be around LKR 1,700 million. Mr. Tinil Fernando in his article indicates the impact of tsunami on Coastal fisheries and the Challenges involved in rehabilitating this sector "-
In this context, ECOnomic Review Whilst Solemnly remembering the thousands of Sri Lankans Who lost their lives due to this Calamity paySglowing tributes to thousands Of Other Surviving Victims for their Stoical COurage in Spite Of their losses. Having Said that We devote the pages of this issue to record, in brief, the impact of tsunami in the Sri Lankan economy and SOciety and highlight the challenges faced by US interms Of rebuilding the nation and how Such Challenges are being tackled by the key players involved in this effort.
- of

Page 3
Volume 31
Published by 萎
Research Department,
People's Bank,
Head Office
鴨エリ F
Dr. Saman Kelegama
SuZhucheng& L.H. P. Gunaratne
P. Amarasinghe Dr. Saman Kelegama
chairman People's
Asoka de Silva
Dr. P. B. Jayasundera
Dr. Kingsley G, Guruge
Dr. Amara Satharasinghe
Dr. SujeewaAmarasena
Dr. K. Karunathilake
THE ECONOMICREVIEW is intend to promote knowledge and interest in the economy and PA. Tinil Fernando economic development process by a many sided presentation of vie and reportage, facts and debat
THE ECONOMIC
Dr. Ranjith Premala de Silva
personal views of the authors and do not represent the institutions to which they atached Similar contribut comments and v
Welcome.
REVIEW is publish and is available both on subScription and O direct sale.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

މހަ)ހހުހހ، މީލް92
bers 1-4 April 1 July 2005
C O N T E N T S
} at u res / Column
27 Human Developmentina Knowledge-Based
Society - Sri Lankan Scene
28 Changes in China Tea industry and its |mplications for SriLanka
31 Oil Price Surge and Quest for Energy:
Sri Lankain Global Perspective
PE CAL REPORT
ebuilding the Nation termath of Tsunami
O2 The impact of the Tsunami Disasteron the
Economy of Sri Lanka Challenges for Rebuilding the Nation
O7 The Mechanism of Tsunami Waves&TsUnami
Experience in Sri Lanka
12 Tsunami impact Statistics
14 Child Protection in the Aftermath of Tsunami
18 Rehabilitation & ReConstruction of Tsunami
Victims' Livelihood
20 Impact of Tsunamion Coastal Fisheries & Future
Development
23 Necessity & Concepts of a Comprehensive
Disaster Management Plan for Sri Lanka
ver Artist: Nayanananda Wijayakulatilaka
Printed at People's Bank, DTP Unit

Page 4
The Impact of the Ts Disaster on the Econ
of Sri Lanka
Challenges for Rebuilding the
(Independence Commemoration lecture delivered at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.)
Sri Lanka having spent nearly 60 years as an independent nation commanding valuable humanand natural resources yet remains unsucCessful in realizing economic advancement. Many nations, which were economically far behind Our Country, now have bypassed usin anunprecedented pace.
Certain key factors appear to have evolved this situation, Law enforcement and regulatory agencies have lost their grip in the effective maintenance of law and order. Lethargy and dependency has shadowed the institutional framework. The public service as a whole has failed in sustaining a speedy delivery mechanism. Private sector remains passive despite agreat bulk of the economy being in their hand. It is an aCCepted fact that development prOgrams are often donor driven. Investment strategies have not produced modern infrastructure a nation requires to have for a rapid and equitable economic growth. People in the North and Eastare indire poverty beingentangled in the long drawn Conflict. Several other provinces in the Country remainequally poor since developmentis confined to limited geographical locations,
Despite the above observations, amenCouraged to note that the Tsunamidisaster has proved that the government machinery is capable of successfully handlingevenan unforceable situation Such as the Tsunamidisaster that Werecently experienced. The manner in which the government machinery at provincial and district levels responded to the immediate rescue and interim-settlement deserves a word of appreciation, although certain shortcomings were inevitable,
Although the pre-Tsunamichallenge for Sri Lanka was to reverse this weakening trends and placetheeconomy ona pro-poor-progrowth strategy within the public-private partnership development framework, the destruction caused by the Tsunamis has added new dimensions to the Country's socio-economic challenges. Larger parts of the north and east Coastas well as of the South and west Coast, which are the
Worst affected areas high level of povertya now Confronted with rebuilding.
Sri Lanka, is one of th tries in the region' fron earthquake in 40 year mis and Caused exte Asian COuntries On 26 Lanka, the human los 31,000 people dead, 5,000 still reported m people displaced. Ti estimated to have COS or 5 percent of GDP ( vate property, transpC harbours, hotels, resta Waterandelectricity su
etc. Considering the
adverseimpact on th tragic human losses as destruction of houses: is now Confronted with the affected areas an affected people during ing willinevitably take
This poses issues rela mentation of reConstru Capacity, managemei environment, mobiliza Structions, supply Cor spect of labour, mater and the governance as tion of resources, their Stakeholder participal challenge for Sri Lanka the Country hasost, bl. development process national debt, Other má and low income and including the Tsunami
The impact on the E
Aggregate national aCC amarginal impact ont joint Needs Assessme World Bank reveals a GDP growth from 6 pe
Indonesia is recognized as the worstaffected Country with nearly 20,000 people dead, O Tsunamis include India, Maldives, Seychelles, Somalia, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
2

unami
Omy
Nation
by Tsunami, represents a nd unemployment and are nultifaceted challenges of
e two Worstaffected Counthe World's most powerful striggered massive Tsunansive damage to several h December 2004. For Sri S was enormous with Over Over 15,000 injured, over ssing and nearly a million he loss of assets which is Earound US$1,000 Million >Onsistofhousing and pri}rt infrastructure, fisheries urants, schools, hospitals, pplies, telecommunications SOcial dislocation and the e local economy from the 3 Wellas multi-dimensional and businesses, the County the challenge of rebuilding dmanaging the welfare of the transition. Therebuildtime,
ting to planning and implection strategies, absorption it of the macro economic ion of resources for reconstraints particularly in reial and skills, legal issues pects pertaining to allocause and accountability and ion in development. The is not only to rebuild what talso to manage the entire on top of the already high CrOeCOnomicimbalanCes Overty in many provinces affected areas,
conomy
Ount figures will reveal Only he movement of GDP. The nt done by the JBICIADBl downward revision in the rcent predicted before the
her Countries affected by the
Dr. P.B. Jayasundera
Secretary, Ministry of Finance & Planning d&
Secretary to the Treasury
Tsunamistoabout 5 percent. The Central Bank has also come up with a similar projection of about 5.5 percent. This downward revision is predominantly on account of the expected decline in the fish production by about 33 percent and the decline in touristarrivals by about 30 percent. Further, claims on insurance which are expected to be in the range of Rupees 20 Billion and non-recoverable debt expected to be around Rs. 3.5 Billion, will have a burden On the performance of banking and financial institutions. The service sector may also have a setback from the destruction towater supply, electricity and telecommunications services.
Although the average growth rate projected for 2005 is revised downward to around 5-5.5 percent, I am quite positive that this year's growth rate will exceed 6 percent given the favourable performance in plantation agriculture, high performance in food crop and livestocks sectors, the bullish growth in appareland other industrial exports, the early reCovery in tourism, the expansion in port and telecommunications related Services and the boost inconstruction. Country's export performance as well as foreign investment remain buoyant with foreign investment this year reaching US$500 million and exports exceeding US$ 6 billion.
However would like to deal with the disaggregate picture to show more serious difficulties. The fisheries sector, which is the Worstaffected by the Tsunamis, has suffered heavy losses. Its infrastructure base has lost heavily, Extensive damage has been caused to 10 fisheries harbours, some of which were recently developed utilizing foreign debt, and 25 anchorages have been completely destroyed or severely damaged. Thedamages range from loss of basic facilities such as Cold-rooms, storages, electricity and drinking water, damages to breakwater barriers and piers and theaCCumulation of debris and Sediments in the harbourS. To make these harbours operational will require heavy investments and would take sometime.
The livelihood Centered On these activities has suffered heavily. Half of the multi-day fishing boat fleet and almost the entire stock of single day fishing boats, engines, nets and other fish
Economic Review: April/July 2005

Page 5
ing accessories have been lost Orheavily damaged, resulting in the fishing community beComing grossly unemployed. The working capital requirement of the remaining multiday boats is high, necessitating considerable help. There are around 1,330 affected fishing villages with about 124,000 fishing households and a population of around 530,000, Loss of employment is estimated to be around 100,000 in the fisheries sector.
The tourism industry which provided a livelihood to a majority of the people not only living in the physically damaged areas but also in adjoining districts have suffered large losses with a serious impact. On small and medium enterprises. Apart from probably a one-off loss in the early months of 2005 inforeign exchange earnings, the immediate impact on income and employment is adverse. The disruption caused to several industrial, agricultural and trading activities, particularly at Small and medium scale has resulted in a loss of around 100,000 jobs with virtual consequences on poverty. The loss of housing, health facilities and schools, and the Consequential dislocations have their own economic and social costs. So all in all, the setback to the economies in the affected districts is substantial although it may not reflectin the Overall performance of thenational economy. There is also a severe drawback to the postConflict rehabilitation work in the north and east provinces with most of the housing and small infrastructure development carried out during the past three years having been destroyed.
ThereConstruction programwouldhavepotential to Compensate many of these losses. The reconstruction of a large number of residential houses, School buildings, roads, village and township programs would provide employment opportunities for displaced unskilled workers and thereby ease the possible incidence on poverty. The Creation of employment could be quicker in Owner- driven housing Construction and business activities, but it is hard to assume that unemploymentissues in fishing and tourism sectors can be easily solved in the short run.
The already implemented livelihood support programs such as the SME creditscheme would also revive some of the lost activities but this process is likely to take at least 6–9 months to returnto normaloperational levelis, The provision of fishing boats and restoration of required fisheries infrastructure will also emerge only gradually and hence the restoration of lostemployment cannot be expected to becompleted for at least a 6-9 months. Therefore it is clear that one major challenge in the reconstruction stage is to manage the incidence of poverty
The Cost of fuel alone is estimated to bearound Rs 100,000 per multi day boat.
ܗ
which requires the provisio in various forms to the affe
Needs Assessment
The Needs Assessment U tional Planning Department Rebuilding the Nation (TAF istries, provincial councilsa to develop a reconstruction egyforthe Tsunamistricke Conflict affected areas in til Coast, provides basic info struction challenges. On administrative Structure atd provides a mechanism to grass root level and has importantstakeholders into Cess. There is an addedad affected districts since dis been assigned importantico eral rehabilitation and reCOn national leve ministries añ assistance torestore damag ture such as highways, Wa ity, telecommunications, si. tional hospitals and schools This overali organizationst portant role that the national ministrative network can pl ning and implementation of tivities, The leadership rol taries infacilitating the provis rehabilitation work at Provin Can be used as a vital build with regard to promoting live ing and shelter.
Government's Needs Asses important requirements. Fir and rehabilitation phase, wł ing the needs of about 100 ljes, Their needs in Wolwe ( tims, provision of safety anc children, food and tempora and uniforms for Schoolchi cilities and immediate live as the restoration of electr and road access, The Overe for this phase which may periodisestimated to Cost Million. Second, the recon ing phase which may invo for the development of hOI infrastructure for humanse assistance for agriculture, tourism and infrastructure C ways, telecommunications, fisheries harbours and elec Cost around US$ 1.8 Billi Assessment done by JBIC estimated the recovery C( Billion of which the financir
Economic Review: April/July 2005

in of livelihood support Cted people,
ndertaken by the Naand the Task Force for REN) through lineminnd districtseCretaries, and rehabilitation stratan areas including the he North and the East rmation on the reconthe positive side, the istrict Secretaries' level gather information at the capacity to bring the reconstruction provantage in the conflicttrict Secretaries have Ordination Work of Seystruction projects. The | Organizations provide jednationalinfrastruciter supplies, electricSheries harbours, naand tourism facilities, ructure shows theimand deCentralized aday in the overall planthe reConstruction aC2 of the district Secresion of urgent relief and
Icial and District levels
ing block, particularly elihood support, hous
Sment highlighted two st, the immediate relief nich requires address,000, displaced famikompensation for vichealth of women and ary shelter, textbooks ldren, basichealth faihood supportas Well icity, water, transport all funding requirement involve a 3-4 month around US$200-250 Struction and rebuildlve a 3-5 year period using and townships, Source development, fisheries industry and Onsisting of roads, railwater supplies, ports, ctricity is estimated to on. The joint Needs ADB/World Bank has Dst at around US 1.5 ng requirement for the
recovery and reconstruction work in 2005 is estimated at around US$500 Million. However this level of expenditure as well as the anticipatedimplementation periodis likely to exceed, depending on the level of expenditure that has to be incurred to develop coastal resources and providestrategic investments in Selected locations, to Create buffer zones.
Recovery and Reconstruction Strategy
The reconstructionstrategy for the Tsunamiaf. fectedregions should be basedonseveral Considerations. Firstly, the Tsunami affected areas represent the least developed and the worst poverty stricken areas in the country. The north and the east provinces suffer from along drawn civil War. Post Conflict rehabilitation WOrk. On housing, health facilities, schools, roads and livelihood support have been in progress when the Tsunamis destroyed parts of such areas, Many areas in the south reflect a high level of unemploymentandobsolete infrastructure facilities. The reconstruction strategy should aim at attracting long term private investments into these areas to promote development. As such, the reconstruction opportunity should be used to develop modern infrastructure in the affected areas to overcomepoverty. The modernization of the Colombo-Matara railway line, upgrading and expansion of the A2 road, the development Offisheries habOUFS, establishment of Well planmedownshipsandtouristfeSOrtscanbeidentified as flagship activities designed to transform the entireaffected costal belt intoadevelopedzone.
Secondly, the reconstruction should not be based on the replacement cost of what isdamaged but should be on the cost of required infrastructuretoeffect modern development and also taking into account the multifaceted risks and vulnerabilities of these areas to possible future disasters. This would involve the developmentofascientifically defined buffer zone to protect the Costalenvironment, its resources, as well as people living in the areas, Consequently the development in these areas will be confronted with issues relating to relocation of housing settlements as well as community infrastructure. This will necessitate the identification of temporary housing and otherfacilities for the people. In certain districts such as Matara, Hambantota, Kilinochchi and Mullativu, such issues may not pose severe problems since vacantland can be easily found and settlement planning is unlikely to suffer from land Constraints, However in areas such as Hikkaduwa, Galle and Kalmunai, non-availability of land is likely to pose a severe Constraint to settlement planning and reconstruction programmes. As such, alternativestrategies may require additional capital expenditure in the reconstruction phase,

Page 6
Thirdly, the rehabilitation and reconstruction programme should aim at providing livelihood Support to kick-starteconomic activities in the affected areas to minimize post-Tsunamitransitional difficulties such as unemployment and poverty. The pre-Tsunami situation in theseareas provides some perspectives to the additional burden that is cast upon the people. In the North and East, Over 40,000 families Were living in reliefcamps and more than 55,000 houses needed to be constructed. In the South, the standard of education and health remains well below the national average and unemployment remains to be the biggest provincialchallenge. In this background, the implementation of micro enterprise Credit Schemes as well as Small and medium lending programmes will help to mitigate the additional burden on the people. A need may arise to offer rural work programmes for people to engageinentire earning activities.
Fourthly, it is necessary to recognize that the re-construction phaseisbound totaketimeconsidering the activities involved, ranging from temporary house construction to the development of modemand disasterresistantinfrastructure including new townships with protected Coastal reserves. Rebuilding is bound to be a long-term task. The planning of settlements will takeaconsiderable period of time, in this Contextitis important to incentivizeaffected families to become key players in their own activities.
Individual ownership is key to be able to effectively drive many of such activities. The micro enterprisecreditscheme, themedium tem credit programme and the Owner driven housing Scheme will promote private initiatives in the reConstruction phase, particularly forthereConstruction of lost houses and businesses. The use of banking infrastructureto disburse funds, Use of Community Organizations to target beneficiaries, the use of professionals to provide field advise and ensure Work standards, carrying out periodicaudits and regular dissemination of information would be useful to ensure good governance in the implementation process. The planning process should also take into account the non-availability of required skills and building material Such as timber, Sand and steel, in the context of the large skills requirement, accelerated programmes will have to be undertakento developrequiredskills for Construction WOrk.
The development of community housing, housingsettlements and livelihOOd Supportandthe rehabilitation and reConstruction of Schools and hospitals can be designed to be completed by the non-governmental sector to ensure speedy Conclusion. ASSistance from large donors both multilateral and bilateral can be mobilized to
assist large infrastruct ships, fisheries harbour structure. However, th procurement systemsn to ensure that impleme due delays. Towards harmonized procureme that transactions are dor adheringtobestpractic sharing arrangements, information being devel
Finally, the reconstructic frastructure and other C. mot Overlook the future nance expenditure nee The national budget and to take into acCOunt the penditure in planning fut ensure Sustainable dev tates effective COOrdinati opment in the entire are:
implementation Struc
The post-TsunamireCOn Component of activities at lihood Support, housing, development of the buí feeder roads, rural and hospitals are essentially which require district le national level, infrastruc primarily involve highw harboures, tourist resort is also important to ensu between national level in and provincial and disti implementation structure tions at various levels to evolved through a Cons to ensure that well-inform address local needs. F Coordinate funding arra reSOUrCeallocations toe overal developmentobје economic growth andre disparities and poverty.
The Macro Economic
The 3-year medium term WOrkenbodied in the 20 at sustaininga mediumt perQentanda gradualm rate from about 8 perCel 20073. The overallgroy the premise that people markets forgoods and st Consume. Priority is giv structuredevelopment bc cial levels, human resol
8 Budget 2005-statement under the Fiscal Management (Responsibility) Act No.3 of 2003 and the framework-Dr Sarath Amunugama M.P. Minister of Finance and Planning
4.

reprojects, roads, townand administrative infrainherent Weaknesses in led to be avoided in Order tation is done without unhis, it is essential that a it system be adopted and ein atransparentmanner as with timely information OaWoid mistrustand misped in the process,
in and development of inimmunity facilities should Operational and mainteds of such investments. hedonor Community need equired maintenance exure public investments to elopment. This necessiOn of infrastructuredevel
.
ture
structionWork hasa large deCentralized level. LiveCommunity infrastructure, fer zone, provincial and | provincial schools and activities at district level Vel participation. At the ture development would 'ays, railways, fisheries S, and largetownships. It Irea proper COOrdination frastructuredevelopment ict level activities. The should involve Consultaensure that policies are iltative process and also ed decisionsare takento uther, it is important to hgements and equitably nsure Consistency in the ctives of achieving a high ducing regional income
Consideration
macroeconomic frame)5National Budget aims }rmgrowth target of 6-7 Oderation of the inflation it in 2005 to 5 percent in rth strategy is based On should have access to rvices they produce and n to investment in infrathatnaţionaland provinrces and skills develop
medium term macroeconomic
ment and strengthening institutional capacities and governance. The underlying medium term fiscal strategy is to achieve a revenue surplus of 3.6 percent of GDP by 2008 and phase-out domestic borrowings, while protecting public expenditure on human resource infrastructure development. The key policy objective in the balance of payments isto diversifyexporteamings, trade and services, improve inflows from OverSeas employment and foreign investments and build external reserves.
The development based on Pro-Poor-ProGrowth strategies to reduce poverty in conflict affected areas as well as in other povertystricken regions receive a significant focusin government economic policies. This growth strategy expects the Central Bank to contain monetary growthat around 14.5 percent in 2005 . and systematically reduce it to 12 percent by 2007, to provide economic stability.
The Tsunamirehabilitation and reconstruction expenditure is estimated to be around US$ 1.8 Billion over a 3-5 year period. There is also about US$200 Million, On account of immediate expenditure for providing livelihood Support and other relief measures. Given the limitations On raising taxes or reducing expenditure, the Government, on its own, is not capable of Undertaking areConstruction effort of this Scale. Hence a large donor support is necessary in Order to maintain a viable medium-term macro economic environment. For instance, if a Substantial volume of donor assistance is available by way of Outright grants, the Overallimpact on the debt profile will not be affected. Similarly, long-term development assistance will not pose challenges to debt management. Although the trade deficit is expected to rise duetolargescale reconstructionactivities, financing of such expenditure through external assistance will enable the country to neutralize the impact on the Overall external reserve movements and thereby stabilize the exchangerate. Bilateral debt relief arrangements will providea 2-3 yearfiscal space in Order to accommodate additional publicinvestments in reconstruction without exerting pressure on domestic borrowings or Outward remittances on account of foreign debt servicing. In fact, such a medium term reliefonforeign debt servicing will enable to reduce domestic borrowings in the National Budget which will in turn enable the Government to reduce debt and facilitate the Central Bank to reposition the stock of reserve money Consistent with the monetary growth of around 15 percent in 2005 and 14 percent in 2006. This will also provide domestic Counterpart funding, if necessary, without resorting to borrowings, This is conducive for the private sector; to expand their investment profile including investment in Tsunami affected areas.
Economic Review: April / July 2005

Page 7
Resource Mobilization for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction
The response to this disaster from the global Community has been unprecedented. Commitments by multilateral financial institutions, governments, non-governmental Organizations, the civil Society and the general public from all Over the world to assist the relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction process have been encouraging. The Jakarta Summit, the Geneva Summit, the Paris Club and the meetings of G7 nations have extended support for the reconstruction drive. The global community has already Committed a large volume of resources in support of reconstruction and nation building activities. Within the region, India and China have pledged assistance for reconstruction on bilateral basis. G7 nations have approved a debt moratorium and several members of the Paris Club have extended debt relief assistance in supportofeconomic recovery. United Nations have mobilized nearly US$ 1,000 Million and United States has Committed to US$ 950 Million for reconstruction in the affected region, Japan's Commitment is around US$500 Million. The European Union as well as its member nations have committed an equally large volume ofresources individually and collectively multilateral agencies have also pledged large volume of resources for reconstruction activities in the affected Countries. People as well as civil organizations and international Organizations have also mobilized substantial donations. For instance various reports indicate that during the past six weeks £365
individualdonations. An equal amount of money is said to have been raised through individual donations in Germany and in the United States,
As highlighted earlier, therehabilitation andreConstruction programme requires astrategy that will mobilize funds without destabilizing the macroeCOnomic environment On the One hand and promote rapid recovery and economic development in these areas, on the other. In addition to the lead role expected from the three major donors namely the World Bank, ADB and JBIC, bilateral support for specific sector developmentactivities would be of significant benefit to complete the reconstruction with least damage to the macroeconomic environment. it is equally important to provide bilateral Support for trade promotion since the increased market access for Sri Lankan exports Could provide astrong buffer for the balance of payments and employment creation. The Government's request from the European Union and the US for increased market access for Sri Lankan apparel exports and the bilateral Support pledged for the promotion of tourism are
Million have been raised in England, through
positive initiatives fora su: the setback caused by the
Since a large number of ( laterals, Governmentsanc ernmental Organizationsa funds, a Coordinated appr ment of the entire develop important. In this backgro ognizethe governmentpri ship, Very often each do gies, with no regard to thos donor also tend to program the assumption that the O differentactivities, For ins a component for livelihood: andeducation, Theendre dong everything. More own accounting and proC reaucratic systems, proce ties. Consequently, very of the reconstruction pack is necessary that all stake framework of the Gove programme, and its maCrC So that all needs can bead met minimizing implemen trations amongaffected pe
Although it may be too ea utilization of Pledgeaid, giv magnitude of the disaster, short to implement certair procedures have prevente of disbursement on many though announcements a been already made, html the Government has alrea lihood supportprogramme an Owner-driven housing mediate rescue and relief cost nearly Rs.10 Billion, a MilliOnfrOm the NatiOnai Bu are high nothing has yetb cash. If donor funding is day they execute their res would make only very lit post-Tsunami recovery pi financing is vital to manag environment in the Country and lags in donor funding C lenges that the governmen the reconstruction phase.
Despite a large aid pronc translating them into Comi actual expenditure takes Japanese grant US$8 unutilized. It effectively ove incurred in the immediate a and does not involve retro: proCurement proceduresa donors like the World Ban
Economic Review: April/July 2005

stainable recovery from
Tsunami disaster.
jonors including multii international non-govreinvolved in providing oach towards management process is equally JnddonOrs need to secOrities and local Ownernor has its own strateeof other donors. Each le theirOWn activitieSOn ther donor will finance tance, every donor has support, housing, health suit is that everybody is over each One has its Urement practices, budures and COnditionalioften, the compatibility age is lost. Therefore it holders work within the rnment development )economic framework, equately and efficiently tation delays and frusople,
irly to comment on the rentheurgency and the 60 days is also not too programmes. Donor 2d the Cominencement
such programmes al
nd Commitments have ust be recognized that dy implementedalivea SMECreditscheme, programme and animprogramme which have pproximately US$100 idget. Although pledges een COnvertedinto real Commenced from the pective agreements, it tle Sense tOWards the OCess. Retrospective |e the macroeconomic 1. Leads inexpenditure ould be potential chaltwill havetomanagein
puncement by donors, mitments and effecting time. For instance the O Million still remains arlooks the expenditure aftermath of the disaster spective financing. The dopted by several other k to disburse funds, will
also take longtime to meet expenditure expected by such assistance. The immediate response of somedonors by reallocating funds from existing portfolios involvecumbersomeprocedures making littlesense to the initial announcements made to support the recovery phase,
Substantial reconstruction work requires much larger funding support and traditional donors spend years to formulate such projects. A classic example is the development of the road sector, Donor procedures and donor conditionalities together with the capacity limits of contractors have made Sri Lankan road Construction a "non-starting activity". If the funding arrangementstobuild the A2Roadconnectingthe east and South follow the sameroute, the economic revival in these areas will not be a reality unless the government takes a bold step to raise funding from alternate sources.
implementation Capacity
Sri Lanka is committed to a large public investment program with a view to providing a wide range of infrastructure facilitates, developing human resources and undertaking governance and capacity building as well as post conflict rehabilitation work in the north and east provinces. The pre Tsunami aid commitment by multilateral and bilateral agencies is in excess of US$3.5 Billion. The post conflict rehabilitation work in the North and East Provinces alone will cost around US$500 Million. In the
north and east provinces as well as in several
other areas in the country, there are nearly 200 foreign funded projects in operation managed by dedicated projectmanagement teams. The annual budget has about US$900 - 1,000 Million for ongoing projects.
it is well-known that the utilization of foreign aid is constrained by complex procurement practices of the donors as well as of the government, environmental issues at the implementation stage, inadequate domestic resources in the national budget, capacity Constraints of Contractors, poor project designing and unrealistic and rigid conditionalities attached to such project financing. Despitehaving taken several measures to improve the project utilization cycle, aid utilization remains to be amatter of Serious concern. Even in the case of projects that have been designed for the post conflict rehabilitation work, the progress remains yet to be improved and the physical work done in the affected areas remaininadequate, inspiteofareasonably well functioning project implementation mechanism that is in place in the affected areas.
Speedy implementation would require revisions or modifications toprevailing administrative procedures, accounting and auditing systems and
5

Page 8
the management approach. As the reconstruction process of the Tsunamistricken area is an ambitious task, anorganization that Wouldset priorities, policies and guidelines for the Overall Tsunami reconstruction effort is necessary. Transforming of the Taskforce for Rebuilding the Nation (TAFREN) into aseparate national secretariat with a lifespan of 3-5 years is essential to COOrdinate the reconstruction effort of Central level projects such as major roads, railways, telecommunications, energy, national schools and teaching hOspitals. At provincial leveland district level, setting-up of dedicated project management units Could be the driving force in the reconstruction program to ensure timely implementation and to facilitate District Secretariats, it is also necessary to provide adequate financial resources to avoid the deficiencies in counterpartfunding from the national budget.
The reconstruction drive in the affected regions should not be undertaken at the Cost of economic development in the rest of the country. The line ministries and agencies need to be geared towards meeting additional demands. In this background the Creation of separate operational units with adequate authority would beeS.Sential to managetherebuilding process.
ReConstruction WOrk should not be Constrained by donor Conditionalities, rigid rules and regulations. Usually the donors attach various Conditionalitiestotheir programmesto includereform Components in their funding arrangements. For instance, donor funding for SMECredit exclude state banks and regional development banks as participating Creditinstitutions. Howeverif these institutions are excluded from the proposed micro Credit and SME activities, such programmes will be of a limited use to the people in the affected areas as privatebanks can provide only limited service in such areas. The need for additional resources was stressed at the recently Concluded internationaldonOrCOnferences. The recent announcement by the World Bank that it would be providing US$150 Million for Sri Lanka's post-Tsunami reconstruction programme includes areallocation of US$ 75Million from existing project profiles,
Legal and Governance Challenges
In the absence of disaster management legislation, all legal and administrative issues, which Cropped up Consequent to the Tsunamidisaster, have beento tackledunder Emergency Regulations, existing legal provisions Orthrough administrative directives and Circulars, Maintenance of law and Order and ensuring essential Service, have been, handle through Emergency Regulations. A practical approach was adopted in the application of the law relating to burying the dead, to circumvent a second wave epidemic
situation. However ther unattended legal issues:
Destructions caused to and washed away physi rise to serious Ownershi and prescription issues destructions to mortga Caused Serious debt fin issues. The impact On aggravated this situation nies towards meeting
adoptedalenientapproa to Crop-up with re-insul holders. The immediate ment administration mé recovery process dema cable legal and regulatc to issues of accountabil nance, and Consultation
The formation of Task F directives provided inter deal with situations dem involving deviations from istrative financialandter audit and compliance iss statutory provisions are attempt to find possiblear WOuld be to carryOutane a consultative processa hensive disaster manag capable of addressing t in a disaster of this magn will be geared to handl Sues with least hindranc Policymakers and the give serious considerat Solutions to such issues.
Economic implication tion Aid
Relief and rehabilitational A large Volume of relie Country by way of Comm rice, noodles, biscuits, CC ing used clothes, medicin ment, Computers, drink pumps and tents. The reli duty free and cleared fro of other charges. Duet managing such a largeir several other regulatory relaxed, There is a nee rangement toaformalins
Examination of aid Cons topreventabusesanda requirements interms of antine and environment tional seCurity considerat that non-relief COmmercia
6

may be many gaps and ising from lack of identity.
roperties and documents albOundaries have given pOSSession, inheritance Death of borrowers and ed properties have also incing and Capitalization he insurance Sector has Since insurance CompaSunami related Claims ch, legal issuesarebound es and COmpany shareresponse by the Governchanism to the disaster nded abandoning appliry provisions giving rise ty, transparency, gover
Orces under Presidential ventionist instruments to anding urgentSolutions, prevailing legal, adminder prOCeduresentailing ues. Although many neW being considered in an Swers, the best approach eds assessment through and formulatea CompreIement law which will be he many facets involved itude, so that the Country e any such Complex isetoeconomic activities, egalluminaries need to ons to find sustainable
of Relief & Rehabilita
iComes in various forms, aid has flown into the Odities largely including oking oil, clothes include, Communication equipng water, shoes, water :f items have been made nport and Customs free D Capacity Constrains in Flow of relief assistance, requirements are also i to transit from this artitutional framework.
gnments are necessary so to enforce regulatory Iroduct standards, quar| requirements and na)ns, Theneed toensure items are not channeled
through relief windows cannot be Overlooked. lmplications on local producers Cannotbeunderestimated in the interest of relief and rehabilitation programs. For instance, when the Country is harvesting its rice Crop, which was not affected by the Tsunamis, there is no justification for donors toprocure largequantities of rice abroad and divert to Sri Lankan refugee camps and Welfare Centers. The local manufactures of noodles, biscuits and garments Could easily meet the donor demands of such products. Hence, except in the rescue phase, the use of streamlined procedures need not be compromised so that adverse Consequences resulting from the large inflow of donations can be minimized. It should be realized that all donated Commodities have been purchased from somewhere. It is in the national interest that goods, which are available in the domestic market, are purchased locally, so that related inflow of funds can Compensate income losses from Tsunami affected economic activities. There are also Concerns over Certain relief items such as tents, which do not suit local conditions. There is only a limited use, if such goods arrive months after the relief phase during which they are mostly required.
Co-ordination of the Non Governmental Sector
With the Tsunami disaster, the presence of NGOs, the UN and its partner organizations have increased significantly, ACCOrding to Central Bank statistics, Sri Lanka has so far received financial aid of Rs. 6 Billion through privatedonations. The government account has received only Rs. 1.5 Billion, against which the government has already implemented several measures costing over Rs. 10 Billion, about US $ 100 Million. The international and domestic NGOs engaged in relief operations to have increased considerably. With the large aid pledges by Several people and civil Societies abroad, it is necessary that a Coordinated effort both interms of capital inflows as well as on development assistance is undertaken by the government. Several international NGOs now command nearly a billion US dollars for the post-Tsunami related relief and rehabilitation activities in the region. In the interest of the best outcome, it is necessary to ensure that these funds are channeled to the benefit of victims in the affected areas. Toward this, asserting how funds are raised and how they are utilized will beeSSential.
in addition to the macroeconomic Concerns
associated with such large Capital movements, the importance of a COOrdinated approach led
Contd. in Page 17
Economic Review: April / July 2005

Page 9
The world's most powerful earthquake in more than 40 years, measured as 9.0 on the Richter Scale, occurred deep under the Indian Ocean on December 26th 2004, triggering massive tsunami waves and devastated Coastal cities, seaside communities and holiday resorts, killing thousands of people in the South and South East Asian Countries and also in Somalia, The location of this earthquake was some 160 km (100 miles) west of Sumatra, atadepth of 30 km (18.6 miles) below meansea level (initially reported as 10km). This is at the extreme western end of the Ringof Fire, an earthquake belt that accounts for 81 percent of the world's largest earthquakes. Hardest hit were Sumatra (deathto||greater than 170,000), Sri Lanka (death toll greater than 31,000), Thailand, and India. The furthest recorded death due to the tsunami OCCurred at Port Elizabeth in South Africa, 8000 k.m. (5,000 miles) away from the epicentre. Anywhere from 228,000 to 310,000 people are thought to have died as a result of the tsunami, and the count is not yet Complete. In Indonesia in particular, 500 bodies aday werebeing found evenin February 2005, and the count was expected to continue past June. The true final toll may never be known due to bodies having been swept out to sea, in addition, there is a possibility of more deaths to Come, as a result of epidemics caused by poor sanitation in temporary reliefcamps where the tsunami victims areaCCOmmodated.
"Tsunami" is a Japanese word meaning "Harbour Wave" which is developed on the event of a ship entering a harbor. Therefore it does not denotea wave, generated due to tidal forces. But in the present context tsunami is a much stronger wave capable of traveling long distances at speeds exceeding 600 kilometers per hour. Throughout the geological history of earthSuch incidents have OCCurred from time to time. Subduction of oceanic plates, impact of large meteors or volcanic activity on sea-floor may Create tsunami waves that might travel to thousands of kilometers. But it should behighlighted here that every plate motion on the seafloor is not accompanied by severe tsunami
The Mechanism of Tsunami Waves & Tsu Experience in Sri Lan
waves, it is assumed thate ing 7.7 on the Richter scal waves, Waves thus gener strong, and has the ability of of kilometers from its epicer epicenter of the recent e Sumatra, a distance of 1506 Lanka.
Eventhough Tsunami isan Lankans several other parts subject to tsunamidevastatic One of the oldest tsunamie lated to the eruption of Krakat the straights between Java eruption developed a tsuna tall, and drowned 36,000 peo These waves had even reaC Lanka and it has led to as meter (no damages). The t ever recorded, (524 meters the landing of a huge aval was seen in Alaska in 1958. earthquake triggered a tsul eled 17,000 kilometers and ( hours later. The Coastal wil was also attacked by a tsu killing 1000 people and disp Sons. The tsunami wave wh Tamil Nadu, Thailand Sumatra, and Somalia ir East Africais consideredas probably the second larges tsunamiewer recorded.
For the majority of Sri Lankar population the word "Tsunami is unknown until the Outbreak of tsunami wave of 26th De. Cember 2004. Most of the Sr Lankanswere unaware about the origin and nature of tsunami waves, their trave speed, and the destructionth the impact of such waves.
wave, which was develope activity in the Indian Ocean, of Sumatra (See Figure) is
December 26, 2004, tsunami-causingearthquake near Sumatrahas been found by seismologists fro to have been three times more powerful than previously thought. Thus, the quake's magnitude has b | 93. If their research holds up, the Indonesian earthquake would be the second largest earthquake ev
95Chile quake of May 22, 1960). | Source http://geography.about.com
Economic Review: April/July 2005

nami ka
arthquakes exceede develops tsunami ated are extremely traveling thousands ter. Forexamplethe arth quake is near 0 kilometers from Sri
ew experience for Sri of the world has been OnS from time to time. vents recorded is retoa volcano in 1883 in and Sumatra, This ami wave 40 meters ple on nearby coasts. hed the Shores of Sri sea level rise in One allest tsunami wave in height) caused by anche in Lituya Bay In 1960 the Chilean nami Wave that travdevastated Japan 22 lages of Nicaragua nami Wyawe in 1992 lacing 13 million perich struck Sri Lanka,
Dr. Kingsley G. Guruge
Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography, University of Kelaniya
natural disaster Sri Lanka ever encountered in the recorded history, However, according to "Mahavansa'two thousand years ago, during the reign of King Kelanitissa, a large oceanic tidal wave has inundated the west Coast of Sri Lanka. But during this period, the scientificcauses of such natural disasters have not been developed and in many occasions such incidents have been treated as acts of gods to punish human beings for their misdeeds. It is estimated that the recent tsunami Wave has taken the lives of 31,000 in Sri Lanka alone, and the total number of deaths for the whole tsunami affected regions of the Eastern parts of the globe is more than 1,70,000, in Sri Lanka, apart from the deaths at least million persons have been displaced and severe damages have been brought into the infra-structural facilities of the Costal regions. Since this major earthquake, geologists have detected several earthquakes, ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 on the Richter scale, in the same area of the Indian Ocean close to the Indonesianarchipelago. The publicity given to these aftershocks through media have sometimes Created sudden panic among the Coastal population. People's immediate responses to the news items, related to the latest developments on earthquakes occurring in the Indian Ocean; clearly show the state of fear
o Figure 1 - Epicenter of the Sumatra Earthquake - 26-12-2004
at wouldOCCUrdue to The recent tsunami d due to a tectonic 250 kilometers West probably the greatest
m Northwestern University een increased from 9.0 to er recorded (following the
and helplessness of the coastaldwellers.
Poor knowledge on the dynamic behavior of tsunami waves is also an important factor that leads to excitement and panic, especially when people are once exposed to such devastating phenomenon. This unawareness has taken the lives of innocent people. For example many people have lost their lives by going downto
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Figure 2 - Pangea-200 Millions Years ago (Arrows indicate the direction of the drift)
Present Configuration of Continents
the beach to see the seabed, exposed due to the roll down and the backwasheffect of water of the first tsunami wave. Soon the shore was inundated, water that accumulated began to drain back to the Sea Causing further damage. In the meantime the trough of the tsunami wave approached the shore, exposing a largeportion of the seabed. Newsmedia has reported that before the arrival of the Secondwave, seabed has been exposed to a distance around 300 meters from the shoreline. Most people didn't had, even a vague idea about the Second Wave that will be approaching with an enormous force equipped with a massive Water mass. Since the tsunami is accompanied by several other waves the second, third or may be the fourth will cause the biggest damage. According to Shewan Daniel, of B.B.C, the Secondwave that devastated the Costal areas of Sri Lanka, hadaforce equivalent to the strength generated by One million Hiroshima bombs.
Criticism with regard to this massive disaster in Sri Lanka, has been leveled against thenegligence of the officials attached to the various departments dealing in "EarthSciences" in issuing early warnings about the approaching tsunami. However the unexpected tsunami devastation in Sri Lanka drew the attention of scientists as well the common people on the tsunamiphenomenon,
Some of the articles published in daily news papers since the tsunamiincident have ConCentrated On Certainessential elements linked with tsunamiphenomenon, such as The Richter Scale, PlateTectonics. Earth Movements,
Figure - May
and Interior of the Eart Silva, The Island 03.01 06.01.2005, Daily New 02.01.2005, Divaina, p ture on what is happenir earth, how the earthqu: waves are triggered off Waves, and theaCCOmg tion, etc, it is vital to CO basic topics of physical paperis anattempt to pri basics of plate tectonic nami Waves and it Will standing on the mechal SasterS
Continental Drift Vs.
"Theory of Plate Tectoni ing Concept presentedt Continents and Oceans, this theory several scien views on the dynamicn An American named Ant the forerunner in explai Continental margins of S In 1858, he published America Joined to Africa to Europe. Later in 191 plain the distributional p HerCenian Mountains ( idea of wandering Contir the idea of wandering C cally presented by thef: gist, Alfred Wegner, a Theory"
ACCOrding to Wegner's ments have evolved fr "Pangea" that existec Pagea started to break ago and Continues tod first instance "Pangea" Continents, and separa large Continent drifted to as "Laurasia" (or Angara nent drifted to the
"GOndWanaland. The N ing sub continent Indi:
8
 
 

h. (Ranjith Premalal De 2005), p.5, GunatilakeA, s, p.8, Dissanayake C.B., 11) Tograsp a clear picg beneath the Crust of the akes OCCur, how tsunami the breaking of tsunami anying massive destrucnCentrate on Some of the geography. The present Ovide the reader, about the ;s, earthquakes and tsuprovide a clear undernisms of these natural di
Plate Tectonics
Cs" is actually achallengo explain the evolution of Prior to the introduction of tists have presented their ature of the earth's Crust. onio Snider Pelligrini was ning the similarities of the South America and Africa.
a map showing South and NorthAmerica joined OF.B. Taylor tried to exattern of Caledonian and f Europe employing the ents. However, in 1912 Ontinents was systematimOuS German climatoloS the "Continental drift
theory the presentContiom the super continent 300 million years ago. Ipabout 200 million years ate (see Figure 2). In the broke up into two Super ted from each other. The
the North was designated
land) and the other contiSouth was known as Drthern Continents exclud, were formed from the
Northern super continent and the Southern Continents evolved from the Southern Counterpart. Forty million years ago, Indian land mass separated from Gondwanaland, drifted northwards and Collided with the Asian landmass, Creating the Himalayan mountain ranges.
This theory was highly debated, and Was also later supported by variOus scientific findings, such as the matchingooastalfeaturesofcontinentsoneither sides of the South Atlantic Ocean, similar geological history of Guyana shield in Brazil and Saharashieldin WestAfrica, paleoclimatological evidences such as Permo CarboniferOUS glaciation, Pleistocene glaciation, fossil records, paleomagnetic records etc.
According to the theory of "Plate Tectonics" the earthSurface is divided into a mosaic of rigid moving plates. There are altogether seven major plates (North American, South American, Pacific, Eurasian, IndoAustralian, African and Antarctic) and thirteen minor plates. (Philippine, Bismark, Fiji, Gorda, Solomans, Cocos, Caribbean, Nazca, Adriatic, Helenic, Turkey, Iran, Arabian, (See Figure 3). Large plates are believed, to be driven by the sub- Crustal conVection Currents of the earth mantle, while the Smaller plates trapped within the larger plates, move due to an indirect forcegenerated by the movements of the major plates. Since the driving mechanism for the plates are provided by the Convection Currents that develop beneath the Crust of the earth, the readershould be aware about the interior of the earth as well as this driving mechanism.
interior of the Earth
Most of the knowledge we have acquired so farabOut the interior of the earth are based On indirectevidence, Specially primary (PWaves) and Secondary (Swaves) earthquake waves provide information about the internal properties of the earth, Pwaves have the ability of penetrating through solids and liquids, whereas S waves do not pass through liquids, Seismographs show that Swaves generated from an earthquake, travel at the speed of 4.64 kilo meters per second within the Crust of the earth. As the density of rocks increase the speed of the waves also increases. It is apparent that S Waves display a maximum speed of 7.2 kilo meterspersecond at adepth of 2800 kilometers.
However Swaves do not travel beyond 2800 kilometers from the surface of the earth. P Waves travel much faster than the SWaves, But it shows variations at certain depths. Within
Economic Review: April / July 2005

Page 11
Figure 4 - interior of the Earth
Crust
Mantle (Wiscous)
Outer
Core (Liquid)
(solid)
the surface layer of the earth it has a speed of 5.6 kilometers per second. When it reaches the depth of 1800 miles the speed has developed to a maximum of 14.88 kilometers per second. Beyond this limit the speed reducesto 8 kilometers per second, and within the last 1280 kilometers of the earth's interior once again the speed of Pwaves increases to 12.8 kilometersper second. Based on these speed variations and also considering the other physical factors that affect the speed of waves, Scientists have divided the interior of the earth into four major concentriczones, (see Figure 4)
The topmost layer of the earth, known as the "Crust" is a thin rigid shell covering the inner Shells of the earth. The thickness of the Crust varies from 12.8 to 64 kilometers, Normally the Crust is thin beneath the Oceans and verythick in mountain regions. This rigid shellfloats on the adjoining innershell known as the "Mantle". The mantle has a thickness of 2880 kilometers, is assumed to be in a visCOUS State. The driv
ing mechanism for the Plates, i.e., the Convec
tion Currents, originates within the mantle region. Outer core, is believed to be in aliquid status while the most inner portion of the earth's interior"The Core", is in a Solid state,
Sub-Crustal Convection Currents
Now letus examine the physical background that leads to the Creation of "Sub-Crustal Convection Currents". Scientists assume that subCrustal convection Currents originate due to two reasons. The first is the heat emitted from the hot inner parts of the earth. Mostastronomers favor to explain this heat emission, by assuming, that the earth (and other planets, asteroids, etc.) evolved from a hotgaseous cloud, According to this theory 8-25 billion years ago, at the matter of the Universe was concentrated ina relatively small space, and this concentration was named as a "Nebula." Extremely high pressures and temperatures within that initial concentration made it impossible forellements to exist. Instead it consisted of a gas
eous cloud. Since all pla share their originto this hot eous cloud, it should be ac ted that all planets evolve hot Celestial b0dies and bé to Cool. It is admitted that is still escaping from thei parts of the planets. The C being the first to Cooldown become a rigid shell COve the rest of the earth's it shells, Scientists believe the heatescaping from the earth provide powerforth
The second source of pov Convection Currents is Sup radioactive elements Such ments usually occur in theu close to the Crust of the earl activedecayingthese elem integrate, releasing heat. upward through Convecti Observed that these Curre neath areas where the Cru Currents sink beneath are thin. (see Figure 5) There are usually expected bene the sinking currents bene the rising Currents move, parallel to the Continental force on the Continent, W movement of the land mas
This process has been g( earth history. EarthScientis the SuperCOntinent"Pange the presentContinentstothe fore it is now certain that operated at least for the p. earth history.
Types of Plate Moveme
Let us now examine there plate movements and the waves. There are three typ aCCompanied by specificg Figure6). The first type isc ment of plates in Opposite ridge axis. This motion C Split and spread apart at sponse to this spreading in face along the Openingfi submarine lava flows, and rine Volcanic Centers. In m ridges (such as Mid Atli Common physical feat Created (this process is Spreading") by magma wh
* if this process is going on everywhere along the oceanic ridges, as it appears to be, then wet expanding at least for the past 200 million years of geological history (5% of the earth's history) B have found out that the earth's surface has not expanded more than about 2% during the last 2
Economic Review: April/July 2005
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

neţS
Figure 5 - Sub Crustal Convection Currents
gasjimitdas
egan heat
Inser fUSt, has ring
nner
Volganic islands
Sg
Subduction Zone
- Trench
that einterior regions of the econvection Currents.
werfor the formation of plied from the decay of as Radium. Suchellepperparts of themantle, th. On the event of radio nents automatically disThis heat is transferred On Currents. It is also nts move upwards best is thick, Similarly the eas where the Crust is fore the rising currents ath the Continents, and ath the Oceans, Since beneath the Continents land mass, it exerts a
SS.
ping On throughout the its relate the breakup of ea" and the evolution of 2 above process. Theret plate tectonics have ast 200 million years of
ዝts
lationship between the OCCurrence of tsunami es of plate movements, Jeological results.(See characterized by movedirections relative to a auses the sea-floor to the ridge Crest. In remagmarises to the SurSSures, and erupts as Sometimes as SubmaOst of the mid-Oceanic antic Ridge) this is a ure. A new sea-floor is known as "Sea Floor ich flows into the open
have to admit that the earth is
But at the same time scientists 00million years.
hich finally leads to a
ing Created by the plate motions in opposite direction. Spreading rates have been calculated along the MidAtlantic Ridge. Thespreadingrates vary from 2-18 Centimetersper year, It is also apparent that spreading rates are high near the equator, and the rate reducestowards the poles,
The second type of plate movement usually OCCUrsalong fault lines, The movement of plates in Opposite directions alongafault line createsa transform fault. The third type of plate movementis towards each other and it may lead to the formation of mountains and Subduction ZOnes. For example 40 million years ago the Collision of Indian plate with the Asian landmass Created the Himalaya mountain ranges. Similarly, the Collision of a Continental plate with an Oceanic plate Creates a subduction zone. Deep Oceanic trenches such as Mindanao, Mariana (in the Pacific Ocean) have been Created due to such plate motions
Plate motions described above Create earthquakes. The intensity of the earthquakes, and the depth of the earthquakes (focus) is determined by the nature of the plate motion. For example, spreading sites are characterized by shallow earthquakes (from surface of the crust up to a depth of 60 km) or volcanic activity. Normally the collision of a continental plate and an Oceanic plate leads to the formation of a Subduction Zone, Thereason forthistendency is the relative strength of the continental crust and the Oceanic Crust. It is assumed that the Oceanic Crust is weaker than the Continental crust, and when they collide with each other the oceanic crust is over ridden by the continental Crust. Another exampleis Nazcaoceanic plate which is over ridden by the South American Plate, A subsiding oceanic plate is transformed to a visCOUS State as it reaches the inner parts of themantle. Most of the deepfocus earthquakes (occurrence beyond 300 km, depth) occuralong subduction Zones.
Earth Quake of 26th December 2004
The earthquake of 26th December 2004, originated in the Indian Ocean just north of Simeulue
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Figure 6 - Types of Plate Motions
Spreading Sites
ഗ്ലീ
Rising Magna fron Mantle
ദഗ്ദ്
Plate Subdiction
Continental Crust
-Ham-P
Latera Plate Motion
island, off the western coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, was unusually large in geographical extent. It occurred due to the subduction of the Indian Oceanic plate, and it is overridden by the Burma microplate. An estimated 1200 km (750 miles) of faultline slipped about 15 m (50 ft) along the subduction zone The slip took place in two phases overa period of several minutes. Seismographic data indicate that the first phase involved the formation of a rupture about 400 km long and 100km wide, located 30 km beneath the Seabed. The rupture proceeded at a speed of about 2 km/s, beginning off the Coast of Aceh and proceeding north-westerly direction over about 100 secOnds. Apause of about another 100 seconds took place before the rupture continued northwardstoWards the Andaman and Nicobar islands.
According to the USGS National Earthquake information Center, a ZOne extending to a distance Over 1000 kilometers of the earth's Crust is overridden by the Burma Plate, it is believed that the Burma Plate had moved 13 meters over the subsiding Indian Plate. Since the plate movement was both vertical as well as lateral, Some Coastal areas may now be below sea level. Measurements using GPS (Global Positioning System) and satellite imagery arebeing used to determinetheextentand nature of actual geophysical changes that have developed due to the earthquake and the tsunami Wave.“
In February 2005, the British Royal Navy vessel HMS Scott surveyed the sea bedaround the earthquake Zone, which varies in depth between 3,300ftand 16,500 ft West of Sumatra, usinga high-resolution multi-beamsonar system. The results revealed that the earthquake had generated a huge impact on the topography of the Seabed, it had Created largethrustridges, almost 1500 meters high, which have collapsed in places to produce large landslides several miles across. One landslide Consisted of a single
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk
'Source: http://www.timesleader.com
Source: http://www.newscientist.com For further details, Visit: http://www.nzherald.co
block of material Some 1 long. The force of the di that individual blocks of tons apiece, were drag aCrOSS the Seabed. An kilometers Wide was als quake.
Earth Quakes and Tsu
Sudden movements of a
to submarine faulting, ve Seafloor (upwards Ordo avertical disruption of al. would finally trigger of: ample, along with the Coll. Plates a Section of thes meters in length has rose entire water Column over and down, Creatingoce: such waves is normally it Wavelength may vary fra depending on the scale speed of the waves dep nature of the Ocean floo water (depths exceeding may travel at speeds of per hour. Butas the wave the wave speed reduces velop its wave height, it Lanka 5-6 meters highw during the recent tsunami at some places. Some may exceed 25 meters increase the steepness ( dency to break also incre wave speed may reduc hour, and finally the was mOUS force. This force is: anything on its path. How when waves travel ind Ocean wave breaks wh equivalent to 1/7 of its init applies to the tsunami huge amount of wateritic prevents it from breaking the Coastline with a treme ent that Coastal areas with as COral reefs, or natural ( ral sanddunes are subji According to the post tsu in Sri Lanka it is eviden have been observed wh beeñtotally clearedor di intervention. For exampl tally devastated, becaus cleared the Sand dunew site the hotel, togetacle: absence of the Sand dun to the invading waterm Wards the land.
10
 
 
 

)0 meters high and 2km placed water was such Ock, weighing millions of ed as much as 10k.m. Oceanic trench several o Created by the earth
nami Waves
arge sea-floOrarea due rtical movements of the Mnwards) may generate arge Columnofwater that tsunami Wave. For exSion Of Indian and Buma ea-bed about 1000 kiloup to 30 meters, and the this area has toggled up in waves. The height of SS than ameter. But the m 100-400 kilometers, of the earthquake. The ands on the bathymetric r.For example, in deep 3 kilometers) the waves 500 to 1000 kilometerS sapproach a landmass dramatically while it deis estimated that in Sri aves have been built up and perhapseven more times the wave height . As the wave height of the wave and the tenasedramatically, butthe a to few kilometers per fe breakS With an enorstrongenough to destroy lever very little happens 2ep water. Usually an en it reaches a depth, alwavelength. This rule Naves as well, But the arries towards the shore gently, instead it attacks ndous power, it is apparOut natural barriers such :oastal vegetation, natu}ct to severe damages. nami surveys launched t that severe damages ere. Such barriers have sturbed through human e Yala Safari hotel is tOthe hotel authority has nich Wassituatedopporview of the Ocean. The 2 provided easy access asses from the Sea to
All the earthquakes do not develop catastrophic tsunami waves. A good example is the earth quake, measuring to 8.7 on the Richter Scale, that OCCurred On the 28th of March 2005 in the same area, of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami warnings were issued around the Indian Ocean after this earthquake. However, a few hours after the quake, there were no reports of any tsunamis. Scientists are still grappling with the mystery of why a large earthquake under the Indian Ocean did not produce a sizeabletsunami.
This situation reflects anotherinteresting fact about the generation of tsunami waves. AcCording to Brian Baptieof the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh, "It is very difficult at the moment to understand the absence of a tsunami followinganearthquake of 8,7 magnitude, , One possibility is that is epicenter may have been located deeper. The earthquake ocCurred on the 26th December 2004, which measured 9.3, resulted from amassivejolt that took place some 10 kilometres below the seabed, whereas preliminary estimates suggest that the latest earthquake was focussed OnafaultZone three times deeper. This may have dissipated some of the energy before it reached the seabed, or at least caused the ground to move in such away that it failed to displace the water Column above to generate a largetsunami. A 8.7 magnitude earthquake OCCurring 150 miles of the coast is certainly bigenough togenerate a largetsunami and it was exceptionally lucky that we didn't have one. By far the most destructive tsunamis are generated from large, shallow earthquakes with an epicentre Orfault line near to Oron the ocean floor. They usually OCCurlin areas where One of the Earth's tectonic plates is slipping, or subducting under another plate. One thing is certain. That is, the earth did not move on the 28th March quake in the way it did on 26th December last year when 10-metre highwaves killed up to 300,000 people around the Indian Ocean."
The Nature of Tsunami Devastation: Sri Lankan Experience
Deaths and Other Physical Damages
Nearly two thirds of the Coastal ZOne of Sri Lanka were destroyed without any warning whatsoever, by the Tsunami wave of December 26th2004. Altogether 13districts of Sri Lanka have been devastated by these ravaging waves. Within the Indian Ocean region, hardest hit by the December 26 earthquake and tsunami wave was Indonesia, with a total of 232,732 people listed as dead Ormissing The death toll, in Sri Lanka, (which was second
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Page 13
Somalia, 10 in Tanzania and one in Kenya. ( See Table 1)
Socio Economic impacts of Tsunami DeWastation
Apart from the deaths and thematerial damage witnessed along the coastal Zone, island'ssocio -economic base was also severely affected by the tsunami wave, Nature of the economic impact caused by the tsunami wave differs from district to district. For example, the maximum damage to tourism Sector is apparent in Galle, Kalutara and Hambantota Districts. Post tsunami Surveys Carried out by various institutions report that 58 registered tourist hotels (out of 212 registered hotels) have been completely Of partly destroyed due to the tsunami wave. It is estimated 27,000 persons within the tourism sector have lost their jobs due to this disaster, and the loss of foreign exchange is around US S. 250 million.
Besides tourism, the tsunami wave had Crippled
the fishing industry also, Morethan 19,000 fishing boats were Completely destroyed, and the loss due to the tsunami is estimated as U.S.S 97 million. The tsunami impact on the fishing Communities is a very serious problem, beCause these people have been affected at both ends. On the one hand their houses and properties have been taken away by the tsunami, andon the otherhand the damagecaused to the fisheries Sector has Created mass unemployment. Iltisestimated that 100,000 persons have lost their jobs due to the tsunamidevastation.
Severe damages on the railway track were apparent between Kalutara and Galle. Educational sector was badly affected in Galle and
Geological Survey (USGS)
Ampara Districts, while AmparaBatticoloa,
hardest hit by this catastrophe), Table 1 T stood at 30,957, and over a Number of Tsunami Deaths H; million people have been ren- By countries rie dered homeless according to | Cou ntry Death to to the Centrefor National Opera- eS tions, in neighboring India, the SS 232732 ቨዝ
ficial death toll was 16389 St. 30,957 OTTICial deatn tOil was 10, India 16,389 SC with 5,640 still reported miss- Thailand 5,393 ple
LLLLLL LLLLLL LAAkAA LeeMLLAA AAAAeAAA LL LLLLMLeLL eMeMLeLee s چ=حيعيو ing and feared dead. Myani id Somalia- ፈጅታö has announced the death of 61 Maldives 82 Si persons. At least 82 people Malaysia 68 aS were killed and another 26 Myanmar 61 a were missing in the Maldives. 10 angladesh 2 Sixty-eight people were dead Kenya tio in Malaysia, most of them in tin Penang, according topolice, Ital 265993 CԱ while Bangladesh reported Source: Sunday Observer, 13th January 2005 ve two deaths. On the east Coast wi of Africa, 298 people were declared dead in providing the necessary it
ernment in order to carry ( and also to provide aid to Apart from this, few interna have Visited Sri Lankatod the tsunami ina more Scie
A recenta study Conducte nami Survey Teamonthet of Sri Lanka has revealed about the relationship bet tsunami Wave and the natu tive to the distance from th tsunami heightinformation, is apparent that tsunamih traveled to inland areas. W ally greatest near the shorell to Zero at the limit of tsunan the energy of the tsunami is Surements OfWaterlevels │ ied from less than 3 meters it is obvious that casualties tures were strongly relate tsunami, not only at the sh the inland areas. There we able variability in wave he damage, caused by num the distance from the sho ergy by dragon the bottom tion of the coastline, bathyr close to the shore, nature features such as bays, pr areas, etc), andnature oft
Damage to Houses a Structures
It is reported that tsunami ceding seas and huge Wa of destroying anything On it such waves pushes ever wards inland, until the Wave
Economic Review: April / July 2005

in COmalee and ambantota have expe'nced severe damages health facilities. It is timated that 97 governent hospitals and 140 hOOlS have been COmetelydestroyed.
nce the tsunami devtation, several surveys ve been conducted by cal as Well as internanal Organizations toesnate the damage OCfred. Mostofthese surlys were conducted ththemain purpose of formation to the govDutrehabilitation WOrk the tsunami victims. tional research teams Ocument the effects of
tific manner.
dby International TsuSunami affected areas some important facts ween the height of the re Of devastation relahe shore. ACCOrding to Collected by the ITST it aslostits energyasit Waterlevels Were uSUneand have decreased ni penetration whereall Sexhausted. The meanear the shoreline warto more than 10 meters, sand damage to struc!d to the height of the Oreline, but also within as, however, Considersight and the extent of ber of factors such as reline, removal of enandbreaking, Orientametry of the oceanfloor of the coast (physical Omontories, low lying he vegetation COver,
nd other Coasta
were preceded by reves which are capable spath. The breaking of ything On its path tostrength is dissipitated.
Remnants of houses and other structures left behind by the tsunami wave give an indication of its devastating capacity, Damage to structures from the tsunami wave was greatestwhere the tsunamiheight was at its highest ACCOrding to the ITST study, there was a zone near the Coast where all structures were Completely destroyed. For example, in Some parts of Kalmunai, Peraliya and Telwatta (in Hikkaduwa) the zone of destruction has extended about half a kilometerinland. At the same time there were structures relatively undamaged within 100 meters distance from the shoreline. This COuld be the result of both the relative strength of the tsunami and in the quality of Construction
Tsunamidevastation was severein areas where the natural Coastal vegetation, such as mangroves, or natural sand dunes have been removed from the coast. A recent paper by Dr. Ranjith Premalal De silva (The Island, 26.01.2005, p.6) has highlighted this fact with examples. ACCOrding to his article mangrove vegetation along the Coast have the ability of resisting the enormous force of the tsunami waves, it is a natural buffer against tsunami waves. For example USGS team has pointed out that the removal of sand dune (togetabetter view of the sea) close to the Yala Safari Hotel has been a major cause for the total destruction of the safari hotel, Similarly it has been reported that Pichavaram and Muthupet areasin Tamil Nadu suffered few human casualties, and less physical damages, due the presence of athick mangrove vegetation Cover along the coasts. 172 families from the fishing village Thirunal Thoppu, in Tamil Nadu were saved from the tsunami, only because of the existence of a thick mangrove vegetation along the coast. (The Island, 26.01.2005, p.14)
Tsunami Sand Deposits
Tsunami waves often leave adeposit of sanda calling card to mark that a tsunami has been there. These deposits give an indication that such locations are at risk from future tsunami attacks, Such deposits were found in almost all the tsunami affected areas of Sri Lanka. The accumulation of sand deposits has started about 50 meters inland. The thicknesses of the sand deposits show variations from a maximum of 37 Centimeters to a minimum of 2Centimeters about 150 meters inland. Tsunamisand depositsat, Nilaveli Hotel, Katukurundaand Telwatta are good examples. At Nilaweli, the sand deposited by the tsunami is light Colored and Overlies a pre-tsunamidarker sandy Soil to a thickness of approximately 15cm thick. The USGS
Contd. on Page 17
11

Page 14
Tsunami Impact Sta
Sri Lanka is one of the Countries badly affected by the Tsunami-2004 disaster. Out of the 13 districts along the Coastal belt, 12districts were affected by this disaster. According to the estimates of the Ministry of Women Empowerment and Social Welfare, about 31,000 people were killed whileanother 4,100 reported to be still missing. A large number of buildings were completely wiped away. Some damaged buildings are not useable. Extensive damage to the Infrastructure of these districts was badly affected disturbing the livelihood of the people. Tourism and fishing are among the mostly hit industries, Thousands offamilies: men, Women, children got displaced. Many displaced families have been relocated in temporary camps set up intemples, schools and other religious places etc. while others have moved to the houses of their friends or relatives.
The biggest challenge that the government facing is bringing the lifestyle of the affected people to normalcy. This requires reconstruction of their damaged houses and providing them livelihood assets such as boats for affected fishing Communities. Reconstruction of the damaged infrastructure facilities is another high priority need. For planning and decision making on the rebuilding the nation devastated by this disaster, it is essential to have reliable and accurate information on the impact on the lives and properties caused by the disaster,
The Department of Census and Statistics Conducted a Census COvering all affected districts to evaluate the damages to the lives and the buildings in the affected areas. The Census was conducted in two stages. All the buildings including those wiped out were listed during the stage by updating the list of buildings prepared for Conducting the Census of Population and Housing-2001. In addition to the listing of buildings, Some information required to the compile a set of key indicators on the damages to the buildings was also Collected in the stage. Detail data Collection was carried Out during the stage 2. Preliminary reports presenting the information Collected during the stage 1 of the census have been released for all the affected districts including those in the Northern and Eastern Provinces,
Methodology
This census was conducted in all affected districts namely, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ampara, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Mulativuand Jaffna districts. Enumeration was done only in the affected census blocks of these districts,
Dr. Amara S
Deputy Department of C
and it was conducted ir Consisting of 9 provi Divisional Secretary Di Grama Niladhar Divis Census of Populatio, Conducted by the Depa was further subdivided Called Census Blocks. division wastoensuretha for the Census Block Cc the final count within at (about 6-12 hours). Fo block included about 8 rural and estate areas about 60 housing units.
Generally, the first ste operation is to updateth enumerated and this lis frame for subsequent SU of all buildings for Sri La Census of Population a framepertaining to theaf updated by the field stat giving due consideratior have been Constructed year 2001. To provide needed for planning information pertaining OCCupants was Collecte The information Collecte given below:
) Postal address befc b) Name of the headio
disaster C) Type of building bel Unit; Living Quarter, d) Whether the buildin e) Present condition o
damaged) f) Number of persons
the disaster g) No. of persons curi h) Where do the usua living (Same unit, Camps etc.) i) Address of the OCC unit after the disaste ) Economicactivity of k) Whethertheeconomi
3.
Detail information on the buildings caused by the the second stage of the department enumerat damaged buildings. Int
12

tistics
atharasinghe
Director, ensus de Statistics
two stages, Sri Lanka is nces, 25 districts, 325 visions and about 14,000 Ons, For the purpose of and Housing - 2001 rtment, each GN Division into a few Smaller areas The objective of this sub attheenumeratorassigned Impletes his fieldwork on given short period of time r Urban areas, a Census O housing units while in a Census block included
ip in any Census taking elist of all buildings to be tisused as the sampling rveys. Aframe consisting Inka was compiled for the and Housing-2001. This fected Census blocks were f. This frame was revised tothenewbuildingsthat and demolished after the information immediately
purposes, Some key to the buildings and the dduring the listing stage, lduring the listing stage is
re the disaster the household before the
ore the disaster. Housing Institute; Non Housing Unit g is still existing
F the building (Completely
lived in the building before
ently living
residents of the unit now With friends/relatives;
pants if living outside the r
the unit before the disaster activities are still carried out
damages to the lives and disaster Was Collected at Census. Fieldstaff of the }d the Occupants of the he case of the completely
damaged buildings attempts were made as far as possible to track where the Occupants of such buildings currently living and to collect the information by visiting them.
Data Collection instruments (questionnaires) were SO designed that some key indicators could becompiled before the commencement of Computerisation of completed questionnaires with the objective of releasing required key information soon after the data collection is over. Preliminary reports presenting the findings based on the quick manual processing of date Collected at the first stage of the Census have already been released. These reports have been published in the Department's website: Www.statistics.gov.lk
Preliminary findings
Several key indicators have been Compiled at District, DS division and GN division levels, based on the data Collected during the first stage of the Census, These indicators include number of affected GN divisions, number of affected Census Blocks, number of buildings (housing and other) in the affected Census blocks before the disaster, condition of building after the disaster (Completely damaged, partially damaged and cannot be used, partially damaged and can be used). Indicators were compiled for housing units as well as for othertypes of buildings.
GN Divisions affected by the disaster
In the affected Divisional Secretary (DS) Divisions, there are 1971 GN Divisions. Out of these GN Divisions, 32 percent has been reported to be affected. Total number of census blocks in the affected GN Divisions is 4,880. Of these census block, 2,611 i.e. 54 percent has been affected by the disaster.
Damages to the housing units
There had been 158,011 buildings used as housing units in the affected census bocks of Sri Lanka before the disaster. Of these buildings 25 percent have been completely damaged. Another 6 percent have been partially damaged and not usable. That is, little over 30 percent of the housing units have been either Completely wiped out or damaged to the extent that those Cannot be used any longer. Percentage of buildings damaged but usable is 24 percent. The balance 44 percent of the buildings have not been affected,
The highest share of 49 percent, of the Completely or partially damaged housing units is reported from the Eastern Province. The next highest share of 23 percent was reported from the Southern Province. Western Province and
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Page 15
Northern Province accounted for 15 percent and 13 percent of the completely or partially damaged housing units, respectively. In the North Western province, only Wennappuwa DS Division of Puttalam district was affected and number of housing units affected was only 54.
When Compared across the district, highest number of housing units, damaged either Completely or partially and unusable, was reported from the Amparadistrict. Total number of such buildings reported for Amparadistrict was 10,566. This is followed by the Batticaloa and Galle districts and the corresponding numbers were 9,905 and 6,169 units respectively.
The highest number (8,139) of completely damaged houses was reported from the Ampara district and it accounts for 21% of the housing units existed before the disaster in the affected Census blocks of the district. This is followed by 7,455 housing units (19%) completely damaged in the Batticaloadistrict, Number of housing units completely damaged in the Galle (4,482), Mulativu (4,428) and TrinCOmalee (3,893) are also considerably large. The reported number of houses damaged completely
are 2,056, 1,667 and 1,069 respectively. The lowest number (11) of completely damaged houses was reported from the Puttalam district. This is followed by Gampahadistrict (227Units).
One of the requirements for settling displaced families back in their own homesistoreConstruct/ repair their damaged houses. Altogether, 88,767 hOUSeshave been completely or partially (usable and not usable) damaged by the disaster, Over 12,000 housing units have beendamaged in each of the Galle, Batticaloa and Ampara districts, Between 6,000-8,000 housing units are reported to damaged by the disaster in the TrinCOmalee, Colombo, Matara, Kalutaraand Mulativu Districts.
Damages to buildings otherthan housing units
There had been 26,179 buildings other than housing units in the affected census blocks of the Tsunami affected 12 districts. Total number of buildings either damaged completely or partially is 11,775 and it account for 45 percent of the buildings existed before the disaster. Out of these25,385 buildings, 18 percent has been damaged completely. Another 5 percent has been partially damaged and unusable. The percentageuSable partially damaged building is 21 percent.
Eastern province is the most affected district with respect to the share of completely and partially damaged buildings other than the housing units, is concerned. The share of this
in Kalutara, Matara and Hambantota districts
indicator for the Eastern p The next highest share of 3 Southern Province. The accounted 16 percent of Completely and partiallyda than the housing unitsandhi Province is only 8 percent
When compared across
number (1,659) of partially c buildings other than housin the Amparadistrict. This a percent of the Completely buildings other than housir Census blocks of the Tsunar was followed by the Galledi of damaged buildings v percentage it was 22 percer such buildings have beenda (859), Matara (670), Kaluta (444), Gampaha (421) and This damage for Hambantc (187) is reported to be less
Total number of buildings completely damaged i. Completely damaged build the Ampara (1173), Galle 99 districts. For all other distric Completey damagedhast
Damages to all types of
units and other)
The total number of all types (completely or partially) is 83,252 (83%) had beenu before the Tsunami. Theb; used as other types of builc
There had been 184,190 bu affected Census blocks of districts. Out of the 1841S buildings, that is 55 percenth or completely damaged. N damaged buildings is 44,41. 24 percent of the total num affected Census blocks, P. damaged but usable is 24.
When compared across the share of 47 per cent of CI damaged buildings is repo Province. The southern next highestshare of 26per of Completely or partially buildings in the Westernar are 15 per centand 12 per
When Compared acrosst number (20,909) of at types irrespective of whether use from the Ampara district a percentofthealdamagedb.
Economic Review: April/July 2005

rovince is 40 percent. percent is reported for Western Province
the total number of maged buildings other SShare for the Northern
districts, the highest is completely damaged gunits is reported from CCounts for nearly 22 or partially damaged gunits of the affected niaffected district. This strict. Reported number was 1634 and as a it. Between 400 to 900 maged in the Batticaloa ra(565), Trincomalee vulativu (406) districts. ta(398) and Colombo than 400 units,
other housing units S 4,853. Over 500 ings are reported from 2) and Batticaloa (525) ts, number of buildings been 400 Orless,
buildings (Housing
of damaged buildings
100,543. Out of this, sed as housing units alance 17% had been ings.
ildings (all types) in the the Tsunami affected 90 buildings, 100,543 had been either partially lumber of Completely 3 and this corresponds ber of buildings in the ercentage of building XerCent.
provinces, the highest
Ompletely or partially rted from the Eastern province reported the "cent. The percentage damaged all types of hd Northern provinces cent respectively.
he district, the highest ; of damaged buildings able or not, is reported ind this account for 21 ildings. This is followed
by the Batticaloa and Galle districts and corresponding percentages are 18 percentand 15 percent respectively. Percentage corresponding to the buildings damaged in all other districts together accounts for 42 percent of the all damaged buildings.
Summary
in terms of the number of damaged housing Units, the most affected three districts are Ampara, Batticaloa and Galle Districts. Number of housing units damaged in these districts is 18,810, 17,405 and 12,209 respectively. Least affected districts are Puttalam (54), Gampaha (854) and Hambantota(2374). When the total number of buildings other than housing units are Considered the worstaffected three districts are Ampara, Galle and Batticaloa Districts. Number of such buildings damaged in these districts wee 1,659, 1,634 and 859 respectively. Puttalam, Colombo and GampahaDistricts are the least affected districts with respect to this indicator. Numbers of buildings other than housing units affected in Colombo and Gampaha Districts are 187 and 421 respectively.
The buildings in theaffected areas were largely housing units. It was found that there had been 150,086 housing units in the affected census blocks of Tsunami affected districts while the number of buildings other than housing units had been as low as 25,386, Possibly due to this even when the all types of affected buildings are Considered the worstaffected three districts are still the same as those identified with respect to the indicator number of damaged housing units. Number of damaged all types of buildings Corresponding to the worstaffected districts are 20,909, 18,603 and 15,379 respectively. The least affected districts with respect to the same indicator are Puttalam, Gampaha and Hambantota and the corresponding numbers are 581,708 and 2,958 respectively.
The Census of Buildings and Persons Affected by the Tsunami - 2004 was conducted to providemuch needed information on the damage of the lives and buildings caused by the Tsunami disaster. This Census was Conducted only in the affected Census blocks of the Tsunami affected districts. This analysis is largely limited to theaffected buildings. Detail data.On the other characteristics about the all types of buildings, OCCupants and their economic activities and dead and missing persons have been collected and are being Computerized. Findings of the analysis of these data will be released once the processing of Computerized data is complete. By analyzing these information together, it could be possible to assess the impact of Tsunamion the lives and buildings more accurately and reliably for the different geographical areas,
For further information, wsatistics go
13

Page 16
Child Protection in 1 Aftermath of Tsuna
There is a traditional responsibility for elders to protect children in our society. The traditional responsibility for child protection in Our Society primarily lied within the nuclear family unit. The children are brought up in the nuclear family units and cared by the nuclear family. If the nuclearfamily is strong socio-economically, with a good value system relevant to Sri Lankan Culture, a good upbringing is generally ensured forchildren. This upbringing includes provision of basic needs like food, shelter, clothing, healthcare love and protection. In this setting children are expected togothrougheducationandaculturally acceptable disciplinary proCess to become a responsible adult. There is a tendency for strong family units to even overprotect children with no allowance for independence which may be harmful for child's development. State in general does not interferewith this traditional child protection responsibility. Statesponsored free education, free healthcare, immunization and welfareschemes for poverty alleviation also contribute for child protection directly and indirectly,
Throughout the history this traditional child protection system faced challenges. Challenges came from dysfunctional families like broken families, socio-economically unstable families With domestic violence, families who face natural or accidental disasters. Our society was not expressively concerned about this phenomenon before. For an example a nuclear family may breakeup, Outside the legal system. Then relatives and parents make internal arrangements for care of the children. Child rights and State responsibilities never came into the picture in these initial arrangements. If the parents die inamaCcident relativeStake Care of Children with internal arrangements. This was the traditional responsibility of caring for "vulnerable" or "at risk" children. State does not get involved in that decision making process. State would get involved once child abuse and neglect is reported after the initial carearrangement. Sometimes this care arrangement worked very satisfactorily but sometimes it did not. Like any system it is not perfect. State would be ConCerned about those children who are neglected and not protected in this scenario,
This traditional child protection system within the family units was also challenged by more recent trends Over the last two to three deCades. Care of children when both parents are
at Work is a challengeir Doing this without Comp difficult task. Care of chilc achallenge, in One of ou admitted to the hospital were from families with mothers working in Mid in practical Sense are br rated parents and informa no legal binding. Althout financial benefits to rela Carer, entrusted Work a heavier than financial b Coping skills of those rela us were trained in parer hard to discipline children in the family unit anyway poral punishmentandem required to look after chil never imparted to their ri not Seen as an issue int
The role of the Natic Authority
The need for a formal ch Sri Lanka was realized pointment of a presidenti tection by Her Excellency Bandaranaike Kumaratul
This resuited in the Creat tection Authority (NCPA 1998. The NCPA became for all the otherstate and ing on child protection. Il cluded departments suci cation, Attorney General Child Care and non stat and other NGOs,
The system mainly focu. by all forms of child abu. protect and nurture then also dealt to a limited exte topreventorminimizeabu ChildlabOur, influence Ont Was variable from minim arease.g.: North-Eastur efective networks in othe
The NCPA also has Distr mittees (DCPC) establis 50 of 1998, DCPCs also team like the NCPA. Re
" Dr. Sujeewa Amarasena is the Chairperson of the Galle DCPCsince 2000. He is apaediatricia of the Department of Paediatrics in Faculty of Medicine, University of Ruhuna, Galle. Hise.mail is
14

the
mi
the Sri Lankan society, romising work ethics is a Iren of migrant mothers is rstudies 20% of children due to abuse or neglect migrant parents-mostly ille-East. These families oken families with sepaalcare arrangements with gh initial expectations of ited Care givers attract a nd responsibility is too enefits that stresses on ated caregivers. None of ting skills and we find it without any form of abuse y (i.e. withoutuse of corIotional abuse). Theskills dren without parents are elated care givers and is his paradigm,
na Child Protection
hild protection system in after 1994 with the apaltaskforceon Childpro'the President Chandrika
nga.
ion Of National Child PrO) under the act No.50 of the Coordinating agency non state agencies WorkThese state agencies innas Police, Labour, Edus, Health, Probation and eagencies like UNICEF
Sedon children affected se and neglect (CAN) to n i.e. rescue activities, it nt On"vulnerable children" ise, neglect, trafficking and he society and the country at or no impact in certain der LTTE COnfrO to more
areaS,
ict Child Protection COmshed under the act No. have a multidisciplinary gional Or local represen
in by profession and is the Head paediatrics fomGyahoo.com,
Dr. Sujeewa Amarasena*
Head, Dept. of Paediatrics University of Ruhuna
tatives of those departments represented in the NCPA are in the DCPC. In addition there are religious leaders, NGOs, lawyers and child rights promotion officers. The district secretary, paediatrician or the specialist judicial medical officer Co-chair the DCPC by statute.
NCPA plays a big role in making policies, initiating legal reforms, creating awarenesson child abuse and neglect. It has investigation powers under the police unit. It also monitors affected children especially in the legal system.
DCPCs work atgrassroots levels, it handles individual cases of abuse, provide interventions in situations of need, handle problems of children's homes and implement support programmes for vulnerable children and monitors progress of children after placements at grassroot levels. It also conducts educational programmes to create awareness. Over the last few years Galle DCPC has conducted more than 20 educational programmes every year. It also identifies loopholes in the procedure ofhandlingindividual cases ofabuse and proposes suggestions to legal and administrative reforms required for protection.
The NCPA has a Chairman, a Deputy Chairman, a Board and an Advisory Committee, police unit and other support staff in the Head Office. It is funded by the annual government budget. Howeverlot of its activities are funded by the NGOs, Cooperate sector and other donors, eg. Its head office was builton an outright grant of the British government.
Unlike NCPA most DCPCs do not have a temporary ora permanent office space. Galle DCPC meets in the district secretary's office. Every DCPC gets an annual grant of 120 US$ from the NCPA for expenditure on meetings. Jaffna DCPC is fully supported by UNICEF to run an office, a computer database and all members are paid amonthly allowance. There are some districts without DCPCs as yet.
Most of the programmes conducted by the DCPC are supported by NGOs, other state departments and - well wishers. Work and stability of the DCPC and hence the child protection programmes depend largely on Commitmentanddedication of inspirationalteam members for success. Therefore, DCPC functions are variable in the Country. To face the Out
Economic Review: April/July 2005

Page 17
Comes of Tsunami this system should be strengthened,
Dept. of Probation and Child Care
State arm to provide care and protection for children and monitoring care is the Dept. of Probation and Child Care Services. This was established as the Department of Certified Schools in 1942 and probation work started in 1956. This is a devolved subject under the provincial CouncilsaCCOrding to the 13"amendment of the Constitution. This was suffering with administrative problems like any other part of the government's administrative machinery. It is understaffed. It is inefficient. It is poorly Supported in needs, inservice training for existingstaff is limited and has a minimal impact towards changing needs of child protection. It is also liable for Corruption. It may take Weeks to months to get a report On a single child if needed. Communication and transport were the two areas the department was suffering mostly in carrying out duties related to Tsunami, af. fected children, These had been problems even before Tsunami.
Effects of Tsunami on children
Large number of children died in Tsunami. It was estimated that nearly 40% of deaths were among children. There were Concerns regarding lost children. Did they die or were they trafficked (abducted)? in Galle several cases were investigated but no evidence fortraffickingemerged. Some were positively confirmed
alive and were abducted at the Tsunami is unrealistic.
Then it also Created a large group of "vulnerable children" who lost either one or both parents. In southern province there are 1261 children who lost one or both parents. In Galle there are 154 children who lost both parents and 509 children who lostone parent, in Matara there are 15 children who lost both parents and 92 children who lostone parent. In Hambanthota there are 115 children who lost both parents and 376 who lost one parent. It also Created another massive group of children with intact nuclear families but displaced internally. Both groups have lost their houses and properties, books, schools, healthcare institutions and livelihood of their parents. There is a group of children who lost parents in Tsunami during travelingor while at Work, but did not loose properties and other protective factors. Their needs are different to others, as they are living in inlands of the Country. Presence of the nuclear family unit, facilities for education, availability of healthcare and livelihood of parents protect children againstabuse and neglect. These chil
as dead. The belief that these children were
dren have lost One Ormo tors that existed beforear today, State was not dea "vulnerable children" wel
Suddenly both traditional tion systems had to face Cue activities to preven addressed poorly even b change had to take plaCe tive machinery destroye Sources anda Weak and
Performance so far
Initial surveys were Ca along with UNICEF and Child Care in Galle. 02.01.2005 all camps in data Were Collected rega lostone or both parents, who lost both parents ar one parent. This is in qui quentfiguresondata Coll as mentioned previously, may not be 100% accul Some who have moved Country after Tsunamian
Policies regarding una (children who lost bot
There was confusion re. done regarding these Cl were proposed. One Wa them, second Was to ke families and third was fo than 400 people registel lowing Tsunami in Galle alone. 16 children were district. All the others wer families, as it would hap. of accidental parentalde:
Support systems
There were support pro children before Tsunami Sored and others were
State support scheme:
(1) Fit persons assista
This scheme was in nami, The Departme Care could identify a lostone or both pare caregiver (aunt,gral the court of lawsuch the legal guardianar Rs.200.00 (2US$) ance to look after the tive to institutionaliza
Economic Review: April/July 2005

reoftheir protecting facld made them vulnerable ling with the category of even before TsUnami.
and formal child protecarole change from restive activities that were efore Sunami. That ole ! with a weak administrad by Tsunami, limited reinefficient legal system.
fried out by the NCPA Dept. of Probation and On 01.01.2005 and | Galle were visited and rding children who have tidentified 41 children nd another 128 who lost te Contrast to the Subseected by CRPOs in Galle Even the current figures rate, because there are | into other parts of the d notaCCounted as yet.
ccompanied children: h parents) :
garding what should be hildren. At least 3 ideas Sto institutionalize all Of bep them with extended }r adoption. In fact more 'ed to adoptchildren foldistrict probation office institutionalized in Galle e kept with the extended penin any other situation aths before Sunami.
grammes for vulnerable Some were statesponby the NGOs.
ince Scheme
Operation before the Tsunt of Probation and Child it risk children, who have hts and cared by a related ndmother). Then through a personis appointed as ddepartment paysthem per month as an allowchild. This is an alternation. The payment is done
by Writing vouchers monthly and theguardians would visit the probation office monthly to Collect the Rs.200.00. This is obviously a tedious process but fulfils the financial regulations of the government.
(2) Institutionalization
When Sucha Careris nOtavailable Or Cannot befound immediately, the child is institutionalized in a state or Voluntary children's home, Government grant foreach child is Rs.10.00 per day to support these institutions.
Both theseschemes are unable to support achild effectively in any setting to address the issues of protection.
(3) State sponsored poverty alleviation
programmes to Support families with no
discrimination based on the presence or
absence of parents, e.g. Samurdhi. This is
ageneral Scheme not specifically address
children كل ح ص لص
ing the needs of children but may provide some benefit indirectly to protect children.
Otherschemes
There were many other NGOs supporting the Community needs at grassroot levels Outside the government structures,
e.g. Sylvia Foundation -(NGO) in Galle was Supporting Vulnerable children by giving Scholarships to fund educational needs. No legal guardianisappointed through the Court of law. Scholarship was worth Rs.500,00per month with another Rs.200.00 been deposited in
bank account for the future,
New initiatives after Tsunami
(1) Improving theft persons assistancescheme
UNICEF initially pledged to support all children who lost one or both parents by funding the government to increase the grant to RS500.00.
This has materialized after SOme delay. There was a delay in policy making whether to include all children who lostone or both parents and on the amount of the grant. Now children who lost both parents are getting it. By May 2005, 90 children in Southern province were getting it. As in the Current system the legal guardian has to obtain money from the Department of probation and childcare through the tedious process described above. This can be easily converted to an electronic money transfer system,
Due to poor Communication facilities and transport difficulties appointing legal guardians in this
15

Page 18
scheme for all children who lost both parents may take several months.
(2) Sylvia Foundation
Sylvia Foundation is an NGO working in Galle for 15 years. It has maintained a good Children's home since 1993. It has initiated a scheme to grant Rs.500.00 to Rs.3500.00 for children who lostone or both parents in Galle district. If the mother is dead a child gets Rs. 500.00 per month upto a maximum of Rs. 2500.00 fora family. If the father is deadachild gets Rs. 1000.00 per month per child upto a maximum of Rs. 3500.00. If both are dead a child gets Rs. 1500.00 permonth upto a maximum of Rs. 3500.00 per family. Every child gets amonthly deposit of Rs.200.00 in a savings account. Thescheme will continue upto 18 years. They have informed the DCPC and the Department of probation and child care the names of the recipients. So far 328 children have been included in the project. This is a Wonderful performanceforasmall organization with little Overhead Costs and limited staff. What is more important is that it coordinates work with the government machinery with a good understanding of its role, it will certainly help to prevent duplication and wastage of resources.
(3) SLCP (SriLanka College of Paediatricians)
Rainbow Trust has initiated a Sponsorship Scheme forchildren who lostone orboth parents. Amonthly grant of Rs.3000.00 would be made until the child reaches 18 years. Rs. 500.00 of this will go into a savings account. They have initiated it for 39 childrenso far, and most of them are from South,
(4) Southern Tsunami Trust (STT)
Initiated a scholarshipscheme for 200 children On 31.05.05 Selection Criteria are income of parents and parental education status and not parental loss. Scholarship is for 3 years and amount is variable from Rs.1000.00 to Rs. 2000.00 permonth. Apart of it goes into a fixed deposit. This scheme has recognized the requirement to support the vulnerablechildren who are in need and not only who lost parents in Tsunami.
in fact emotional Outbursts have Concentrated work only on those children who lost parents. This has failed to recognize that parental presence is only onefactor contributing to child protection and not necessarily the only factor. It is myopinion that the STT scheme will have the biggest impact for child protection more than others if implemented successfully.
(5) It appeared in newspapers that Her Excellency the President has initiated the sponsor
ships scheme to childrer along with Dr. Hiranthi Wije person of the NCPA. A 5000.00 is given per child go into a fixed deposit.
Children's villages were Organizations and are lik future. It may take the SOS with SOme differences.
Many other organizations ship schemes and Suppo Lanka Cricket. Details : sustainability of these proj isa very high risk of duplica dueto absenceOfCOOrdinat and the NGOs and in betw. If sponsorship is duplicate tions for One child who lost forachildtogetuptoRs, 15 is also unnecessary comy when thereisenough work
Needs assessment
Many data collection for nami affected people. Th enough to assess need should be on individual C Government decided top: wants who died in Tsunam so these dependents may of financial assistance bu cial supportandmonitorin base provision of Support of wastages of resource there should be more deck sion making pOwers to gra of the government. Then coordinate with locally ac
Monitoring
In Our Country Various pro to alleviatepOverty, streng protect children indirectly variable. There are many r is not spending the mone This is due to inadequate tion of the programme, CO pliance regulations for reci preconditions for any spc disCOntinuation of the sche |ationSare not met With, h riskit should be the duty o zationtoinform relevanta No agency other than the Child Care Department, bation officers is capable C is vital that NGOlgovernn On any programmetoprot ing families. In this regard
16

who lost both parents mannethe Currenchair
monthly grant of Rs. Rs. 2500.00 of this will
also proposed by two cely to come up in the schildren's village model
have initiated sponsor
rt programmes e.g: Sri are not available and ects are doubtful. There tion of supportschemes ion between government een NGOS themselves. 2d by all these Organizaboth parentsitis possible 00000 permonth. There Oetition between NGOs
to be done,
ms were filled by Tsuese Should have been S. Needs assessment ase by case basis, Eg. ay salaries of publicserito their dependents. If not need any otherform it may need psychosogof children. Unless we Om individual needs risk is is very high. For this 2ntralization of the deciassroot level structures these structures could :tive NGOs easily.
grammes Were initiated then family units and to in the past, impact is easons for failures. One by for its intended use, monitoringandevaluaupled with lack of compients. There should be Onsorship Scheme and emeifcompliance reguF this places children at fthesupportingorganiuthorities to intervene,
NCPA, Probation and DCPC and CRPO/Profooing this. Therefore it ment partnership is built ect children by supportthe STThasdesigneda
monthly report system, a home visit for inspection to monitor the family using a database. STT request the carers to signan agreement Once sponsorship is initiated. The agreement lays down the Conditions.
Report by classteachers, gramasevakas, CRPO would become essential to monitoring especially because other factors such as alcoholism in the father may determine the outcome of the support programme. Stateagencies have the power to take action Ondefaulters which no other NGO is capable of performing.
Will the sponsorshipschemes beeffective?
Institutionalization as it is today is certainly not effective to protectand nurture childrento produce useful Citizens. Alternatives are limited. Adoption is notwidely accepted in the country forolderchildrenand theorganizationand monitoring is difficult. Viable alternative would be foster care with sponsorships.
Education helps to protect children and italleviateSpoverty in the long run, if we couldensure Continuation of education, provision of basic needs and care in a family setting it should protect and nurture these children to become productive citizens one day. Over the last 50 years free education has had a big impact to
alleviate poverty and social upliftment for low
social classes. It should be applicable to Tsunami affected people today.
Threats
Several factors would threaten the success of
these programmes,
Lack of resources to implement and monitor the sponsorship schemes will remain the most important challenge. Weaknesses of the legal systems will Continue to harass Tsunami affected children unless remedia measures are taken in the near future. eg. One extended family came up on 11th April 2005 declaring themselves unable to look after the childrendue to lack of support.
Lack of professionals & professionalism to handle changing situations and needs of children will befelt unless the existingstaff is trained to deal with complex problems.
Failurēto provide other needs, eg. Education, vocational training, lifeskills will affect the ultimate outcome of these children and the success of sponsorship programmes. Lack of coordination between the government and non governmental agencies will result in duplication and wastages of resources. Lack of individual case by case needs assessment will also result in wastage of resources.
Economic Review: April/July 2005

Page 19
Future
in the immediate aftermath of Tsunamithere was a massive national and international response towards affected children which was largely emotional. Focus was mainly on initial psychological supportand provisionofrelief.
Long term programmes for protection and nurturing children were pledged but has not materialized at the required scale. Even when some projects materialize, provisions may fall well short of demands and targets. Further the variability in the support programmes may result in a variable impact due to differences in selection Criteria, quality of support, sustainability and weaknesses in monitoring. Therefore it is absolutely essential to coordinate activities between state agencies and national, international non state agencies to avoid duplication and wastage to improve utilization. Furtherit may also reduce the management costs of these programmes leading to optimum utilization of available resources.
Conclusion
The child protection agenda has shifted ourfocus from "rescue" of victims of CAN to prewention of CAN"vulnerable children" after TSUnami. Magnitudeoftheproblem demandsanadministrativesystem that is efficientandeffective.
Ability of the existing systems with limited resourcestocope with the needs remain doubtful six months after Tsunami without strengthening and greatly enhancing its capabilities. Coordination not only at the central level but also at the grassroot level is mandatory for optimum utilization of resources
C
by local Ownership and a
was highlighted in the sp
Johnson, Minister of Inter Norway at the ministeria
was recently held in Gel have also learnt that ther tions and aid following lar can have disruptive econ On the COuntries Concern tures are Overburdened wi COOrdinated demand from and aid Organizations. T Corruption. Thefocus ont the large amount of funds Couldwell increase the pr circus seems already to b nation and a clear divisior tablished and this is also reconstruction phase". Th ership has always been th menting successful devel. government and its popula egated to being spectators Lankatherefore is to take reConstruction phaseandt genuine long-term Comm well being of the affected p
Conclusion
The post-tsunamireConstr lenges as well as opportur economic perspective, it is bilitation and reconstructio Cal burden and not undern reform towards reducing de tional Budget. Interms of velopment the additional.c should not beat the Cost O
Contd. from Page 11
team has identified another sand deposit measuring to a thickness of 37 centimeters at Katukurunda (Near Kalutara) within 60 meters distance from the shore. In Telwatta area, (close to Hikkaduwa) the thicknesses of the sand deposit vary between 10-20 centimeters, in Yala, the sand deposit measures up to 22 Centimeters. In most parts of the Coastal areas submerged by the tsunami waves, occurrence of a thick sand deposit is a common feature, and it has adverse effects on the naturalwegetation. It is apparent that in most places, Vegetation cover existed before the tsunami (specially small plants and shrubs) has dried-up (or dead) due to the sand deposits and also due to the intrusion of sea water. Although tsunamis are capable of eroding the land, erosion in Sri Lanka was often concentrated in a relatively narrow zone near the coast. For example, at
Mankerni, there was evide eroded about 1 meter in about 20 to 30 meters wide
The tragic experience of T. the most catastrophic disa: tory of Sri Lanka. Todayth rebuilding the devastated Way Thisisa very importa dealt with extreme Care, E. 100 meter Construction ffe must bestrictly considere lives of Coastal populatio maintaininga natural Coas be helpful to minimize the (
References
Ananda Gunatilaka, (2005) Earth Effects and, Lessons , The isla
Economic Review: April/July 2005

ontc. from Page 06
Ong-term commitment ech delivered by Hilde ational Development of level Conference that eva. She stated, "We pid influx of OrganizaJe Scale human Crises mic and Social effects !d. Government struch large numbers of una multiplicity of donors ere is a higher risk of le Current disaStefand pledged to deal with it blem. "Donor einfullswing. Coordi| of labour must be esrgently needed for the e lack of country owne Weak point in implepment programs. The tion should not be re. The challenge for Sri the lead in driving the medonors must makea itment to improve the eople.
Jction poses new challities. From the macro mportant thatthe rehan Will not beCOmea fisnine the Ongoing fiscal bt financing in the NaOveral economic deaims on reconstruction f the developmentex
penditure elsewhere. Multilateral and bilateral donor funding need to be channeled towards building infrastructure that will attract investments which revive these local economies in Order to Create income and employment. Owner driven housing schemes and microenterprises and SME led livelihood support programmes will encourage individual initiatives that will fast track rehabilitation work. Non-government Sector Can become a powerful provider of resource to COre-finance Such initiatives that the GOVernment has already launched.
The recovery from Tsunamicannot be expected Only by Concentrating Tsunami reconstruction activities. The Overall success will will depend largely on how the rest of the economy is managed. The need to Create a higher revenue generating capacity through both taxation and re-strengthening ofstrategicenterprisesshould not beforgotten. Productive use of government expenditure and repositioning of the government sector delivery mechanism, particularly at decentralized level is equally crucial. The SME focus, private sector development initiatives as articulated in the government policy statement and in the recent budget must be accelerated. Wasteful subsides which have hindered productive investments and local production, should be phased out with a view to Creating incentive structure favourableforeconomic development. The national budgetshould betransformed into a revenue surplus over the medium term to bring down inflationary pressures to maintain Sri Lanka's competitive edge in the global economy. Failure to implement these initiatives in a Coherent and Consistent manner together with well conceived reconstruction strategyin the affectedarea Willundermine the prospects for reducing poverty and rapid recovery in the Tsunami affected areas
nce thatagrassy area he vertical in a ZOne | near the Coast.
unami isundoubtedly terthroughout the hisgreatest challenge is areasin a systematic tissue that should be pecially the proposed ! Zonealong the Coast in Order to secure the 1. On the other hand a vegetation zone will DastalesOSion.
Jakes and Tsunami: Cause, d. 04.01.2005. Upali News
Papers Ltd.Colombo, Sri Lanka
Ananda Gunatillaka, (2005). Mechanics of the Tsunami Disaster, 0601 2005Upali News Papers Ltd. Colombo, Sri Lanka
De Silva R.P. (2005) Richter's Scale-Facts and Figure, 03.01.2005, The Island, 03.01.2005 p. 5. Upali News Papers Ltd.Colombo, SriLanka.
Edgar W. Spencer (1983) Physical Geology,Addison Wesley Publishing Company, Canada.
Mangroves:Solution to Tsunamis, The Island, 26.01.2005 p.14. Upali News Papers Ltd. Colombo, Sri Lanka
Wijetunghe J (2005), Journey of Tsunamiwaves from deep oceans to Beach, The island 03.01.2005, Upali NewsPapers Ltd. Colombo, SriLanka
References from Web Sites
Experts wonder why there was no tsunami, By Steve Connor:Web Site: http:lhwww.nzherald.co.nz.
2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake (From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) http:llen.wikipedia.org
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Page 20
Rehabilitation & R
of Tsunami Victims'
The Tsunami of 26th December 2004, has devastated the family system prevailing in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka for alongtime. The damage caused by the Tsunami to the family system in the affected areasis higher than the corresponding physical damages. The primary social unit of a society is the family. The smooth functioning of the family is essential to maintain good social order of any society. When the structureofthehuman family is disturbed due to some reason, it willcreate many social problems which may lead tomore complicated social problems.
The family system in the Coastal belt of Sri Lanka has distinct characteristics different from that of rest of the country, its castesystem and other social hierarchical systems are different from the social structure that prevails among people of the other areas of the island. Most of the coastaldwellers belong to the fishing Community and their livelihood depends on the fishing industry. Others are engaged in various other secondary vocations, Economically, the majority lives below the poverty lineand, when compared with those who live in the interior regions of the country,
However, there are many accesses to overcome the abovementioned dilemma by providing means of living fortheaffected families again. For that it is compulsory to identify the nature of former sources of family income, soCianetWOrkand the related infrastructure facilities, And also it should betraced the Current potentials of the family that help to continue the gainful earning. Thus, it is compulsory a very reliable and comprehensive database for whoever engage in this field topian and implement any reconstructive and rehabilitative activities.
Magnitude of Task
This is the worst ever natural disaster in Sri Lankan history. Thetable 01 shows the magnitude of damages that took place in many districts which were affected severely. Along with the disaster, there were unforeseen challenges and tasks lineup, mainly for the government officers and then for others. The challenges and tasksidentifiedare:
1, Deaths
2, Missing
3, injuries
4. Relief work
Psychologically a Destruction of priva Destruction of live Displacements Social welfarecal 0, Uprooted and we
ent levels 11. Reconstruction, re 12. BufferZOne 13. Landfragmentatic 14. Funds allocation, f NGOs organizati ties 15. Disparitybeweer
Communities 16. Research
There are many mar based On SSLjes menti there are many latent as a result of manifestf in this article. Deaths, property (private and sues that are related namidisaster. Theresp. unforeseen challenges the otherhand, the er activities initiated by \ and other bodies, it is tasks for governmentC Secretaries to facet mediate successfully problems.
Role of the Govern
As usual, the first ge rectly involveforther and divisional admini trict Secretary at distri retary at divisional lev take emergency and neously, armed forces to the Scenario. Mea ship made severaller cided to set upa Centr of the entire function, Operation (CNO) hea der the President, Cha ever, there was anot Disaster Managemer by Mr. Sarath Chant COmes Under Preside sult of the flood disas

econstruction
Livelihood
ffected individuals teand commonproperties lihood
mps aken social bonds indiffer
location and rehabilitation
nandscarcity Ormation of government and Onal structures and activi
affected and non affected
lifest functions which are oned above, Sociologically, functions which generated unctions, but not concerned missing, and destruction of Common) are the main isAwith Other al issues Of TSUOnsible authorities face these sand tasks successfully. On notional as well as rational larious local Organizations not an easy challenge and fficers, especially Divisional his tragedy. Though, they Stithere are several other
ment and NGOs
overnment body which dielief measures was district strative services. The DisCt leveland Divisional Sec'el had been empowered to relief measures. Simultaand police too had entered while, the political leadernergency meetings and dealcoordinating mechanism it was Centre for National Aded by Dr. Tara de Melunandrika Kumaratunga, Howher body which is Human nt Council (HDMC) headed drasiri Vithana and it also 2nt's Management. As a reter in Ratnapura and Galle
Dr. K. Karunathilake
Head, Dept. of Sociology, University of Kelaniya.
Districts in 2003 this COUncil was established. The HDMC too operated simultaneously but it was under the CNO Control. CNO was ableto, utilize each and every government ministries and departments infruitful ways and also able togetall other assistances from various local and international Organizations. This mechanism functioned until the end of January 2005 and though there were some criticisms of lack of proper COOrdination it was a natural situation when we meet these type of Calamities. Just after the unforeseen challenges and tasks, all ministries took over the burden of dealing with Tsunami Wictims,
Task Force for Rebuilding the Nation (TAFREN) replaced the CNO and it has been Coordinating thereConstruction and rehabilitation programs in many districts. But, the Crucial problem which has no endsOfaristo establishacentral body with the LTTE and the government to launch long term plan for Tsunami affected families in Easternand Northern parts of the country.
NGOs of local and international level including international agencies such as UN establishments have been working in many fields of Tsunami affected areas of the country. More Or less they have linked with TAFREN and government administrative structure of each district to implement their post-Tsunamiactivities. It is clear that the governmentalone cannotowerComeall Consequenceserupted by Tsunami. Government needs their support due to vulnerable financial situation unless it can clearly avoid their mediation to mitigatenegative impacts like India. Consequently, today, these Organizations are heavily involved in post-Tsunami activities in Sri Lanka, There are positive and negative impacts. As We are all aware, Some organizations areworking for the victims and simultaneously having hidden agendasax well. Especially, the allegation that some NGOs have closelinks with LTTE and supporting them has caused many prejudices among the majority of the people in the Country. The negative image developedasa result of these Contro
Economic Review: April/July 2005

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Table 01 - List of Activities
Short-term Long
1. Relief work 1. Deve
2. Special health and sanitary programs for special 2. Identi categories in particular and for victims in general seSe
3. Identify the actual damages to the properties and the 3. Decla
people the
4. Compensation for direct victims 4. Decla
5. identify the buffer zones and other remedies 5. Build
6, identify the lands for transits and permanent houses 6. Identi
7. Make MOU with donor agencies on post-Tsunami 7. Selec
activities
8. Intro 8. Build transit houses for direct victims
9 introd 9. Awareness and conselling programs for victims on
natural disaster 10. Evalu
10. Plan long-term reconstruction and rehabilitation 11. IntroC
programs for the affected families
12. Ensui 11. Establish Central and regional coordinating centers
13. IntrOd
versial issues is resulted negative impact for other NGOs when they made face to face interaction with the people, Another prejudice against the NGOs is conversion to their sect of religion. Therefore, we need Public Sphere to discuss these Controversial issues related to the post-Tsunamiactivities in Sri Lanka. Otherwise, weare underestimating the servicedone by some other NGOs.
Role of International Agencies
"International agencies such as the UN, ADB, World Bank, etc. are Crucial at this stage because the government expects their generous help to rebuild victims livelihood in short-term and long-term manner. This is the most vulnerable social problem in the Country. Therefore, we have to identify all strategic issues and develop very comprehensive planstoreestablish these victims' livelihood. The Sri Lankan governmentor TAFREN has been developing a cooperate plan to rebuild their livelihood but nosinglesociologistandanthropologistrepresented the policy level. However, these international agencies are well equipped with experts so as to maintain good equilibrium between policy leveland implementation. When these agencies offer funds for the government or TAFREN for post-Tsunamiactivities several
essential factors should ation. They are:
1. identification of thep 2. Relevance of the pro 3. Total outcome (pos
pected change, and tions) of the remedia Composition of thee Duration of the activi Sustainability of the Monitoring systema
These agencies are keen and the above Conditions too.
Short-term and Long-te
The all post-Tsunamiacti affected people only. On timsthereshouldberepre spective in policy level as level. Without their views tionerscannot gather victin the approach Consists of cess of the development victims perspective. Curr have a very high backw tudes On reconstruction a
Economic Review: April/July 2005

|-term
op infrastructural facilities for permanent resettlement locations.
fy the victims or affected parties including in the buffer zones who wish to
tle in different locations.
re the buffer zone and start develop vegetation which helps to protect
buffer zone
re the activities that can be Continued within the buffer zone
permanent houses for the victims
fy the Social hierarchical Order of victims before resettling them
t victims according to their social status for resettlement
duce livelihood improvement approaches for victims
luce community mobilization programs to enhance their social integrity
ate the development of victims livelihoods
luce remedial approaches to overcome shortcomings
e the sustainability of their livelihood
luce monitoring and evaluation systems on buffer zone and its activities
Detaken into Consider
Oblem
blem itive vs. negative, exmanifest vs. latent funclactivity Xperts involved
ty
activity ndtransparency
to Work with local NGOs areapplicable for them
brm Strategies
vities should benefit the the point of view of vicsentation ofvictims perwell as implementation he development practisparticipation. Although PRA, PRT, etc. the sucefforts need to identify 2ntly, all affected people tard and negative attind rehabilitation efforts
launched by any organization. Primarily, they think that this is a merely government duty or responsibility to help them. That is true, but not only the government it should incorporateefforts by all parties.
As faras | concern here, the following activities are essential to overcome this Social problem, They can be listed in the table01.
Conclusion
The post-Tsunamiactivities are very Critical and complex since many groups are bearing differentviews. Therefore, tomitigate these situations all responsible authorities should follow a very important role in this scenario. They are: to stop politicization of post-Tsunamiactivities, to establish very clear transparency, to prioritizeal activities indifferent levels, to guarantee efficiency of all activities, to guarantee victims complete participationforpost-Tsunami activities, to listen to victims needs and attitudes, and to maintain excellent Communication between all parties of incorporated effort. Therefore, the ultimate responsibility of the government is to establish social justice to all victims of Tsunami through planning and implementing Very Comprehensiveactionplanto OverCome this main social problem in Sri Lanka
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Impact of Tsunamic Coastal Fisheries & Future Development
The catastrophic tsunami event on 26th December 2004 had severely affected the lives, properties, Coastal activities and sensitive ecosystems along the coastal belt around theisland. The affected area is relatively thin but reasonably long coastal area over 1000km or two third of the countries coastline. The damage of the catastrophe to themarinefishing industry is enormous.
Fisheries sector of Sri Lanka is of Considerable Social and economic importance due to various reasons. Asafood source it provides 65% of the animal protein consumed within the country. The total fish production in 2004 was estimated at 283,568 tons, of which 30,280 tons were from inland waters. In addition thesector provides 148,000 direct and 100,000 indirect employments, which cater living of nearly one million household dependants, in 2003 fisheries Sector gaineda substantial foreign exchange (RS.95 billion) through marineproductexports and its contribution to the Country's GDP was estimated at 2.6%.
The COuntry's marinefishery could be divided into two main Sectors, Coastal and offshore. Coastal fishery is conducted in near shore waters basically on the continental shelf and the slope including lagoons and estuaries. Beinga tropical country these waters are enriched with high biodiversity, so that the coastal fisheries are characterized by multi-species/multigear nature. Coastal fishery resources are consisted of small and medium pelagic fish species like sardines, herrings, anchovies, half beaks, mackerels, barracudas etc. Small pelagics generally form dense schools mostly in upper coastal waters and they are found in high densities in northwesternand northeastern Coastal waters. It was also reported that more than half of the national fish resources are found in the northeastern Coastal waters, Demersal fish includes species such as Snappers, groupers, Carangids, invertebratessuchas prawns, lobsters, Crabs, squids, Cuttlefish, oysters, clams mussels and Sea CUCumbers, Offshore fishery is carried out in the waters beyond the continental shelf up to the outer limit of the EEZ of Sri Lanka and in international waters. Offshore catches mainly comprised of large pelagic species such as Spanishmackerel, frigate tuna, kawakawa, bullettuna, sharks and bilfisheS.
Fishery surveys by RI during 1978-1980 reveal tainable yield from the C tons, comprising 17000 80,000 tons of demersal revealed that most of OU either optimally utilized C handful of resources ar. touched. Therefore, des by the disaster, from ma this is an ample opport Strategy to take appropri able utilization of Coastal
impact of tsunami Humanitarian impacts
The damage owing tots twelve of the fourteen ( Kilinochchi, Mulativu, 1 Ampara, Hambantota, M; Gampaha. The other tw. Mannar and someplace experienced least dama fected due to losses in estimated at 800,000, Ou were fishers, 80,000 W fish traders, 20,000 were Cillary workers while ther was their dependents. Ab 24,572 shelters and fisi houses were Completely stroyed, and 8,417 we partially damaged. ATOL 60,287 fishers were C placed and 1736 disa peared. The deathtoloff ermen from all districts v 7222, of which 6429 (89 Were from north and eas substantial number ofpec engaged in lagoon fish Owing to loss of gear,
impact on the fishing
ACCOrding to the statistic eries and Aquatic Resou fishing fleet of the coun Crafts of various types, v dugouts such as Canoe or valam (north and e. (northwest, westands teppam (northwest) anc
20

t
V "Dr. Fridtjof Nanson" ad that the maximum SuSpastal Zone was 250,000 0 tons of pelagic fish and Fish. Recent studies have rCoastal resources were rover utilized and only a e under exploited Orunpite the damage caused Inagement point of view, inity to formulate a new ate decisions for sustainfishery resources.
Inami waves is Severein 2Oastal districts, Jaffna, rinCOmalee, Batticaloa atara, Galle Colombo and Odistricts, Puttalam and sin the Gampaha district ges. Total population af
P.A. Tini Fernando
Marine Biological Resources Division National Aquatic Resources Research & Development Agency (NARA)
They are operated in inshore waters and Only few of these are powered by motors and majority are non-motorized. They contributed nearly half (17,030) of the fishing fleet and more than 80% of these vessels are available in heavily affected areas of Southern, easternand northern parts of the country. Fibre Reinforced Plastic (18-23ft) one-day fishing boats powered by 10-25 horse poweroutboardenginesare Constituted of another 11,559 fishing crafts (37%). They are abundant throughout the Country, but more than 60% of them are Concentrated in the west and the northwest regions, 28 feet oneday fishing boats are equipped with inboard motors and 1493 such boats (5%) are in operation throughout the Country. A semi-industrialized fishing fleet known as multi-day boats are engaged in offshore fishery. These boats are 30-60 feet in length and equipped with insulated fish storing holds, radio communication systems and satellite navigations, in 2004 this fishing fleet just exceeded 1581 boats (5%).
The damage caused by tsunamion the marine
the fisheries sector was fishingfleetwas substantial. Of the total of 31,663
tof which nearly 100,000 fishing Crafts of different types, 16,962 (54%)
efe
an Fig. 1 - Impact of tsunamion the four craft categories
eSt. in the west, south and the east Coasts
Out 3000
her 2500
de- | ဦ2000
See 5
ind 8 1500
lis- 홀 1000
ар- | ё 500
sh- O
vaS Un-E Dam-E Un-S Dam-S Un-W Dam-W
冯6) Multi-day boat DO 28' One-day boat Z FRP boat ET Ttraditional craft
t. A Un-Undamaged, Dam-Damaged, E-East, S-South, W-West
ple
eries were also affected coastal fishing Crafts and 195 (0.6%) offshore vessels were destroyed while another 3839 (12,1%) Coastaland402(13%) offshoreves
fleet sels were damaged. The boat damage was high in the east Coast and it was gradually
cs of the Ministry of Fish- dissipated along the southern and the west
rces (MFAR), in 2004 the try comprised of 31,663 which includes traditional S (Westand south), thoni ast), beach seine parus Outh), log Crafts such as i Kattumaran (northern).
Coasts. The affected FRP boats and traditional canoes and that of MDBand28 feet day boats in the east Coast were estimated at 85 and 72% respectively and these were declined to 70 and 60% in the South and to 60 and 30% in the west Coasts. Although the percentage of damaged MDB crafts in the east coast was rela
Economic Review: April/July 2005

Page 23
Table 1 Fishing fleet, craft/gear damage and the recovery cost fishingre! 2004 Number of boats Recovery cost beach cle
(LKRMillions) Fishing fleet Destroyed Damage Craft Gear. Owing to Multi-day Boat 1581 195 402 1,001 477 tsunami, 28 Day boat 1,493 490 328 970 388 i drawn si FRP boats 11.559 4,093 1,363 1,125 240 TM 674 - - - from the TNM 15,260 9,975 1,876 217 175 strict lowe Beach seine Craft 1,096 774 72 141 211 Fore.d.s Total 31,663 1757 42 3457 1472 09:
- - ing pract 1- Source: Ministry of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources; 2-Anon, 2005 TMTraditiona mechanzedcransfNMTradionalno-mechanzeacrafts Control, w aftertSuma seine (lig tively high, there were only 151 Such boats the southwest region has Worth of 249 millions in the east Coast, in COn
that before tsunami and C trast there were 250 and 205 damaged MDB become afrequent event boats (worth of LKR 413 and 338 millions) in the south and the West Coasts respectively, · The 28' one-day damaged crafts in the east, Fish production loss SOUth and the west Coasts were valued at LKR The anticipated loss of pro 516,387 and 66 millions and that of FRP boats due to the fishing Craft da and traditional Crafts were valued at LKR 797, 9
special and temporal V. 512 and 175millions in the respective areas COnCened monthly production figur and damaged proportion O
It was also noted that the damage was inversely proportionate to thesize of the Craft; that is the damage in the Smallest Craft type (i.e. non mechanized canoes) was estimated at 78% and declined to 63% in mechanized Crafts, 70% in FRP boats, 53% in 28’one-dayfishingboats and 47% in Multi-day boats. The repair and recovery cost of destroyed and damagedcrafts was estimated at Rs. 3,457 million (Table 1).
in the Coastal sectorin addition to the registered gearitis Customary to posses more than single gear per each Craft and this would result in Complex Craftigear Combinations. Actual information regarding the gear distribution is therefore hardly available. For easy reference the damage was valued at 1472 million (table 1) based on the assumption that each Craft possess Only a single gear unit.
Inaddition tothe Craftsgeardamage, fishing operations were also hindered due to alien Obstacles brought into their fishing grounds. For example castnetting in lagoons (eg. Karagam LeWaya) and beach Seine operations incertain places in the east Coast were temporarily Ceased Owing to above reason and to resume
In addition the recovery was also Considered in loss of fish production in 86,736twith the highesty day boats (37, 236t) fc (25,297), traditional Crafts ( (7880)andbeachseines
The production loss durir year 2005 was estimate 19,460t was from multiFRP boats, 4,342t from | from 28' boats and 1,894t highest loss in first qual fishingefort of MDBdur season Compared to 15, produced in January 20c multi-day Craftswere se effort remained at a very such as damages to Craf restrictions due to death unwillingness of fisherm they are homeless, idle fishing, lack of infrastruct facilities. Further,low dem Sumption have aggravate erstend to make dry fish this has caused a glutini
month after tsunami. The
Table 2 Craft wise annual fish production and loss"
due to tsunami (Tons) tion was Compensatedla Production Production Production Consumer preference to c in2004 In 2005 loss in 2005 and refraining from fish C Multi-day Boats 115,200 77,964 37,236 have caused a negative in 28 day boats 21,300 13,420 7,880 FRP boats šis || 6 || 237 || Sothat asubstantial effort TM 10,351 3,693 6,658 people's attitudes to Cons TNM 3,840 1,029 2,811 Beach Seine CraftS 13,958 7,105 6,853 TNM (inland) 30,280 30,280 O Production losses durin
TM-Traditional mechanized Crafts and 14,077trespectively) TNM-Traditional non-mechanized Crafts
Economic Review: April/July 2005

Oval of such objects and aning are required.
he adverse affects after fisherfolk have been mpathy considerably ublic and this eased the inforcementagainstthem. Ome Controversia fishCes, Which Were under are triggered in numbers mi. The number of purse it course) operations in increased compared to ynamitefishing has also
duction for the year 2005 Image were based on the ariation of catch rates, es of the previous year fdifferentCrafts category. rate of the fishing fleet the analysis. The total 2005 was estimated at was reported from multiollowed by FRP boats 9,469t), 28 one-day boats (6,853) (Table2).
g the first quarter of the 2d at 37,953t of which day boats, 9,684t from raditional Crafts 2,571t from beach Seines. The ter CoincideS with low ing its peak productive 000t of fish which they 13. Although only a few verely affected, fishing OW level due to reasons is and gear, manpower s of Cruise's relatives, en to leave families as mentality to engage in Jre and poor marketing and formarinefish Cond the situation and fishOminimize the loss and lry fish marketeven six shortage of fish producgely by alteration of the ther protein substitutes onsumption. This may pact on recovery phase was made to change the Imefish.
the second and third red to the first (19,670 Mhereas even with 80%
recovery of the fishery at the end of the year, production loss in third quarter was estimated to be 15,035tons. The estimated total loss in 2005 (86,736tworth LKR 10,647 millions) is equal to 30% reduction of the previous years fish catch (283,568t). This may causeadrop of the per capitafish Consumption from 180kg in 2004 to 12,5kg in 2005, unless immediate actions are taken to import the required fish to meet the demand. Further there will also be a drop in the foreign exchange earnings due to lowmarinefish product exports, however, this may change depending on the recovery rate as it shows a fast recovery than what is anticipated earlier.
The production loss of most finfish varieties was proportional to the craft damage. In 2005, 40,520t of large pelagics, 33,484t of small and medium pelagics and 12,732t of demersal fish worth around LKR 10,647 million would be lost due to tsunami (Table 3). However, there would not be a significant impact on otherfish resources like prawns since considerable proportion of the resource was exploited by the trawls operated in less affected areas of the western and the northwestern regions. The annual prawn production thereforewould remain around 9,000t and there will not be an alteration of foreign exchange, which would remain around LKR 4000 millions. On the other hand the obster production in the southern region would soon be recovered since many fishers have resumed their fishing activities due to attractive high-income, prevailing Suitable Sea Conditions for lobsterfishery and involvement of economically affordable personal who could provide lost equipments and other accessories required for harvest the resources. It is expected that 1800t of obsters worth LKR250 millions WOuld be exploited during 2005.
Based on historical data, Central Bank of Sri Lanka has predicted an annual fish production of 300,000t in 2005 prior to tsunami; however, the expected figures after tsunami would be estimated at around 196,832t of fish worth of LKR. 23, 197 million (Table 3).
impact on institutions and infrastructure
Six major institutions of the MFAR were severely affected. The highest damage of LKR 1,700 millions was reported from the Ceylon Fisheries Harbour Corporation (CFHC) where ten out of twelve fully fledgefishing harbours were affected to varying degrees, Breakwater rock boulders were displaced, channels and harbours were sited, so that cleaning up and dredging of the harbour basins is required. Many shore structures and buildings, water supply and distributor systems, fuel tanks, internal roads, slipways need complete rebuilding. An
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Other 200 fish landing stages and 37 Table 3. Annual fish production and losses anchorages along the coastline were 2004 also damaged. Production Value Large pelagic-offshore 110,000 13, ther supportive services like stor- || Large pelagic-Coastal || 12,800 1. Ο Pe s Medium pelagic 10,200 agefacilities, ice plants, C00 stor- Smas 80,418 8 ages and refrigerator trucks, fish pro- ဒွိစ္ထိ
an Cessing (c!!!!!! that Operates Under Total fish production 283,568 33, the Ceylon Fisheries Corporation values were estimated based the priceа
(CFC) were also damaged (LKR380 millions), Cey-Nor Foundation lost their boat yards, sales Outlets including gear, whereas Coast Conservation Department (CCD) and Department Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (FARD) lost LKR 505 million worth their regional offices, stores, workshops, heavy equipment, vehicles, marketing network and radio equipment etc. NARA and NIFNE have also been severely affected by tsunami waves including research labs, databases, museum, reSearch and training vessels, buildings etc. The damage was estimated at LKR 473 millions,
Recovery and development
Immediately after the disaster, with declaration of need assistance, local authorities and Communities responded quickly by providing immediate needs of the people. This involves Supply of food, clothing, temporary housing, medical and education services, Simultaneously the government has taken prompt actions to assess the damage and to provideassistance to tsunami victims,
The MFAR has initiated necessary actions for rebuilding the industry on short and long-term basis. Short term of phase activities ensure the humanitarian and Social Complications are Solved. Repairing of damaged fishing boats, replacement of destroyed fishing boats, outboard motors, fishing gear and equipment will also be aCCelerated on the same basis. Long term or Phase activities will proceed as a continuation of the phase and would extend over next four years. This will focus On improving livelihoods of fishing communities beyond the pretsunami levels and promotingeconomic stability. This includes series of developmentactivities including raising freshfish production, value added fish and fishery products, construction of massive Scalefisheries structures, Supplying improvedboatslequipmentandecological Conservation. The preliminary estimates of financial needs in recovery of fisheries sector was estimated at around LKR 11,300 millions (withOut housing and Social services) of which 1264 millions are required for short-term activities and 10,536 millions for Completion of medium and long-term initiatives. However, in the fisheries Sector the implementation plan has highly overestimated figures and describes the rehabilitation programme under Seven major project Com
ponents as described b
1. Construction of fishermen. Under this C will be restored/rebuilt a nami affected fisher fan 100m Coastal belts from ing Categories; single, tw 12340 and 15425 millio the end of 2005.
2. Rehabilitation of and landing stations building and restoration ture is a priority issue properly designed and and should be equippec to minimize the post-ha ing, ice plants to provid fish transportation and fish during gluts in fish made. Otherstructures lets, marketing network munication facilities sh the harbour territory. Fis canning facilities should ity of fishery harbours a erly functioning Coast system should also be
The financial requireme approximately LKR 19, 11,976 millions are requ rehabilitation of eleven Cation of Kirinda and Pa for Construction of Dikko for Construction of 34 a grade harbourfacilities equipmentandstaff acc repairs and purchaseo ing 3dredges, 20 cranes and 10 wheel loaders.
3. Repair rebuildi dāmageldestroyed fisi total allocation for this ( LKR5,775millions ofw of crafts, 414 for repairs, for replacement of geɛ programme priority ha destroyed traditional C abling maximum numb fishing in shortest time
22

due to tsunami Centers Were established in Col2005 2005 laboration with private boat s(m) Production value(m) Loss () value(m) yards and Special Work teams 200 74,733 8968 35.267 4232 were appointed for repairs while ဌိ : 影 mobile repair units provided 63 536 45 236 33 engineering Services. A portion 348 27, 138 4,235 | 12,732 2114 of materials required for reno醫 ႏွစ္ထိမ္ပိ ၉၅၇အို 106 vation of Crafts was provided tlanding by Cey-Nor while the fisher. men OrthedonOragencies pro
elow. vided the rest.
permanent houses for A numberofforeign teams, Various donor agenomponent 30,850 houses cies and NGOs Voluntarily provided their asnddistributed among tsu- sistanceto repairandprovide newfishing Crafts
milies who lived within the the shoreline. Three housin and flatsworth of 13882, ns are to becompleted by
fharbours, anchorages Commencement of reof harbours and infrastrucAll harbours should be modified for future needs |with fish landing facilities rvest losses during landleice formulti-day boats, Cold storages to store the catches should also be like boatyards, sales Outand radio and other Comould be developed within sh Curing, processing and bedevelopedimthevicinand landing sites. A propguard and a surveillance developed.
intof this project would be 962 milions of which LKR ired for reconstruction and larbours (1,100formodifnadura harbors and9,000 vitafishery harbour), 5,794 anchorages, 1,342 for up including vehicles, office :Ommodation, and 850 for fheavy machinery includ(40-50T), 12 dump trucks
ng and replacement of hing crafts and gear. The component will be around nich,3569for replacement 178 forengines and 1614 ar. During the restoration s been given to repair the rafts and FRP boats, ener offishermen to resume Oossible. Around 37 repair
and other accessories, which accelerates the reconstruction programme than anticipated. However, in certain instances they worked independently without properCoordination with responsible agencies, resulting an alteration or over replacement of the fishing fleet when Compared to the pre-tsunami level. Further the project aims at Completing the studies for fishing boat designand promoting the pilotactivitiesforbuilding of improvedmulti-dayfishing boats,
4. Revitalizing the collection, storage, distributionandmarketing network. Theestablished fish Collection and distribution system was collapsed due to loss of storages, vehicles and other supportivestructures. During the disaster 10 cold storages and 18 ice plants were completely destroyed while 5 storages and 12 ice plants were severely damaged. Sincefishishighly perishable, providing storage facilities and continuous supply of ice will not only ensure the supply of quality fish to consumers but also will help to maintainademanding fish market to securing livelihood of affected fishermen. It was planned to reconstruct 12 ice plants and 6 flake ice plants at various locations. Until the permanent structures are established, immediate requirementis to provide 10-15 containerized ice plants, 20-30 numbers of freezertrucks and 10-20 refrigerator trucks of varying capacity to the affected areas. Total budget would bearound LKR1000 millions.
5. Rehabilitation and reconstruction of training, researchandmanagement facilities. The project aims at constructing buildings, workshops and equipment for AD, Fland CCD offices, supplying rescue boats, radio COmmunication equipmentformonitoring controland Surveillance division in Galle, reconstruction of training/research vessels, at head office and the regional offices of NARA and NIFNE. Total budget was estimated at LKR 1000 millions.
6. Rehabilitation & reconstruction of community infrastructure & social development.
Contd. on Page26
Economic Review: April/July 2005

Page 25
Necessity & Concept Comprehensive Disa Management Plan fo
Sri Lanka
Natural disasters are inevitable and it is almost impossible to fully recap the damage caused by a disaster. Some disasters occur instantaneously and some others have aslow Onset. Most of the disasters which have a slow onset can be predicted early and remedial ormitigatory measures drawn out. However, the OCCurrence and the location of instantaneous disasters like earthquakes cannot be predicted presently and therefore, the consequences can be very serious. The urgent need to include natural hazard information routinely into development planning themes has been emphasized especially after the recent devastating tsunami.
Disasters can bedivided into different categories based on the main controlling factors leading to a disaster. These may be meteorological (tropical cyclones, floods, droughts), geomorphologicall geological (earthquakes, landslides), ecological (forest fires), technological (chemical explosions like in Bhopal), global environmental (sea level rise), and extraterrestrial (meteoroids). Another useful distinction can be made between disasters with respect to the duration of impact and the time of forewarning. Some disasters like earthquakes strike within a short period with devastating outcomes while others may have a slow onset period (drought) with equally or more serious repercussions, Thereal magnitudeofadisaster i.e. the value of all losses inflicted as well as of those suffered in its aftermath is an actual realization of a possible risk scenario which needs to be taken into account in planning for rehabilitation and reconstruction. The risk representing the value of all potential losses that may becaused by a hazardous eventis in tum calculatedasafunction of the magnitude of the event and by Our ability to cope with its impactor vulnerability.
In the nomenclature of disasters, manmade disasters and natural disasters are identified as two main types because the management intervention can becompletely different in these two cases prior to the disaster. However, in this article the focus is mainly on natural disasters,
Hazards exist in nature. A hazard Can be
defined as a source of pot ora situation with potenti Poor understanding of the management could turn
disaster, For example, ir longer a disaster but just are well equipped w management strategies fo single episode of tsunamib disaster. This clearly s Comprehensive disasterm: the country.
Concepts for Disaster M
Most of the disaster mana biased towards postdisast should be aproperbalanc disaster management and isalways betterthan mitigati 01 showsthetypical disaste
A disaster management include
a) Disasterpreparednes b) Early warning and ha c) Emergency respor
Control d) impact assessmen Services for relief a reconstruction e) Disastermitigation
Disaster Preparedness a
It is important to have all po through scientific studies a possible magnitude of the extent of impact, time of
Figure 1-Disaster M.
Prepare
به همه || - S
Economic Review: April/July 2005

is of a Ster
Dr. Ranjith Premalal de Silva
President
Geo-Informatics Society of Sri Lanka (GISSL)
ential harmor damage, at for harmor damage, hazard leading to poor a hazard into a major Japan, tsunami is no a hazard as Japanese ith comprehensive rTsunami. However, a rought usawidespread hows the need for a anagement structure for
lanagement Plan
gement strategies are er management. There a between preand post prevention of a disaster on of its impacts. Figure 2rmanagementcycle.
plan should definitely
sand publicawareness azardmitigation
se, evacuation, and
t, social and Welfare nd rehabilitation, and
nd Public Awareness
ssible hazardsidentified Indtrack records of the
hazard, geographical Ossible OCCurrence Or
anagement Cycle
dness N,
Disasteresent
| Raы itation سمسمبر
recurrence (if possible), probability of occurrence and the nature of impact toevaluate the potential risk of the disaster, Ahazard with a very low probability can result severe and widespread impacts while a high probability drought, which is mild and local can only result in a slightly lower yield of crops. The evaluation of hazard in terms of its probability and impact is a fundamental concept in disasterpreparedness and it is shown in Figure02.
We have experienced a Colossal human disaster with tsunami. As professionals, we cannot be silent witnesses to another tragedy. Along with the relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction, we need to focus our attention on the mechanism for enhanced prediction capability and preparedness in meeting emergencies. All these pre disaster preparedness plans could beformulated based onour experience gathered from the lastevent.
"Have we collected the necessary data and information for such planning?" To my knowledge, notasinglemaphas been produced to show the areas affected, shoreline changes, spatial distribution of the impacts based on administrative units (Grama Niladhari Divisions, Divisional Secretariat Divisions). In addition, scientific investigations should be conducted and necessary data should be gathered to explain the answers to these questions; "Why isit that some areas were not affected?, "Why isit that some structures were not damaged?", "Why is it that in some areas the tidal waves were 20-30 meters highwhile in other areas it
was 2-3 meters?",
The success of disaster preparedness mainly depends on the collection of the necessary information. Once the potential risk of a disaster is evaluated, a comprehensive preparedness plan should be drawnout considering the early warning system in place and risk monitoring mechanisms.
No disaster preparedness plan will be successful unlesspeople are properly informed of the potential risk and the preparedness mechanism, Public awareness should bean integral component of any such plan. Electronic and print media and the Communication
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networks have a major role to play in Creating awareness among public.
However, it should be understood that during a disaster, regular communication mechanisms get
ImpactA
Widespread
Mild & Widespread
Figure2. Two Dimentional
damaged and surviving links get Severer & Local Aسسمصر سم congested due to an abnormally Mild & Local 7>سلمه high volume of traffic. Without
Communication facilities, relief and Low
rehabilitation work get seriously affected. Properplanning is required to avoid breakdown of Communication links and recovery in case of breakdown in the shortest time. Even during non-disaster periods, communications between differentagencies and the public is very important. These include telemetry of disaster related data for processing, administrative Communicationsforplanning and educating public with respect to disaster preparedness.
Public education can be efficiently addressed through the media to inform people how to prepare for disasters, make people knowledgeable about the event, Convey warnings about natural hazards and provide information Continuously throughout the COUrse of a disaster. As different types of disasters have different vulnerable zones, the public awareness program has to be location specific interms of contentand language,
The success of a publicawareness programme depends on the confidence of the public on the information Source Or the media. If aforecast fails, the public should be informed about the true status of the incident with a genuine acceptance of the mistakes made,
After potential disaster areas are identified, agencies need totransport equipment for rescue and resources for relief and store them at the locations, which are accessible in a short time. Both government departments and NGOs need to have communications for such planning and movement.
Forecasting and Early Warning
Forecasting is one of the most important Components of a disaster management plan. It is possible to make predictions for SOme disasters but the technologies available today are still not capable of predicting the occurrence ofearthquakes.
Analysis and forecasting Consist of data acquisition for analysis and data dissemination. The mandate of each Organization linked to the disaster management plan should beclear with respect to these two activities. A considerable
amount of national Wea On acquiring Sophisticate and research Organizatic dissemination. It is ob\ education efforts have these lines, Moreover, become personal prope intended benefits wouldn
Data acquisition is the ps information from vario them to the processing ( performed at local, natic The required dynamica be conveniently Collected technology, inanera wł of the entire earthis carrie of data is by no mean Office for Outer SpaceA toprOvide Whateverassi timely data Collection m continuous procesS. AC developed to send the Col Centre On real time Orne:
Early Warning Syster
AgOOd early Warning sy characteristics:
(a) Production of earl
form
Although We ha' station in Palek information of the expertise is nota the data and gene On the strength of COnsiderabletim California, USA information in the monitoring station under JICA grant functional. Furth these stations 24 a year.
(b) Rapid transfer of decision-makers
24

Representation of Risk Evaluation
There should be a direct link to the relevant decision
Mid
High
makers with the data Collecting agency. However, it is not possible to have effective Communication links with several related ministries. Therefore, the Disaster Management Centre should be the coordinating
Probabili
robability body among the related line
Ith has already been spent 2d equipment to universities ons for data aCoquisition and tious that Our training and ! not been very fruitful on most of this equipment has rties of individuals and the everbedelivered to Society,
ocess of gathering relevant ISSOUrces and delivering Centre, Processing Canbe maloreven regional level. and time Series data Could i through the USeofsatellite erecontinuous monitoring !d Outfrom space, Collection S Costly, United Nations fairs in Vienna has pledged stance to developaproper, echanism, which will be a Ommunication linkCould be lected datato the processing arreal time basis,
stem requires the following
I warning in an appropriate
ve a Seismic monitoring 2lle, Kandy to Collect the behaviour of groundwaves, vailable locally to process ate the required information an earthquake. There is a elag to send the data to A and in receiving the equired form. The Seismic slocated in the universities programme are notat all her, it is essential to man hoursa dayand365 days
information to appropriate
ministries. Werealized in the immediate post tsunami period how ineffective our national disaster management Centre was and how much resources in Our SOcial Services budget have been wasted on this Centre. The Disaster Management Centre needs to be strengthened with qualified personnel who are exposed to the advanced technologies of disaster management.
(c) Preparation and dissemination of suitable advice to likely to be affected parties and other relevantgroups
Forecasting or advanced warnings should besent to the governmentagencies, nongovernmental organizations and Communities in areas likely to be affected, through the mediaSO that they may take action to prepare for a disaster, Relief agencies should also be notified on the Scale or the magnitude of the event and the possiblespatial extentofthedistribution of the Calamity. However, advanced preparedness exercises need to be previously introduced in Order to be preparedfora debacile,
Emergency Response, Evacuation, and Control
A key challenge after a disaster is managing the response. This has been Compared to planninga military Campaign-One needs toget trucks, material, Communications, medicine, and other urgently needed items into the theatre as quickly as possible.
An Emergency Disaster Events Database needs to be developed and maintained in Order to provide data on all disasters in an effort to provide reliable, objective information for Vulnerability assessment, policy formulation and research by governments, disastermitigation Organizations and academia, Regarding the recent tragedy, the database should include the spatial distribution of the arrival time of Tsunamis, encroached distance, affected population, number dead, injured and homeless and estimated economic damage, etc.
Economic Review: April/July 2005

Page 27
Suchadatabase would facilitate the increased exchange of emergency management information to improve the emergency management practices, thereby reducing disaster-related losses of life and property, and lessening social disruptions. Further, enhanced international Communication about emergency management would foster development of international standards for terminology, equipment, monitoring, Operating procedures, training and Organizational structures, improved coordination of international responses to disasters would assist us to shift from Crisis response to a measure of emergency management. Technology transfer from the developed World should befacilitated andan international information network would provide a commonplatform to support distribution of new technology in Sri Lanka. This would preventus agonizingly struggling with disaster in isolation as we experienced throughout the littoral areas of the country in the aftermath of tsunami.
Disaster management plan should linkall the institutions and agencies which are equipped with individual emergency response strategy. For example, Fire department has its own formulated strategic approach to cater an emergency related a fire. A comprehensive management plan covering all these institutions and agencies should ensure that a planned evacuation and disaster control regime is evaluated and can be effectively put into use within a short period of time. Inter-agency coordinationshouldalsoplaceathighimportance on the managementagendaascoordinated efforts have proven to yield better response.
> Acquisition of prior knowledge of risk faced by the community in disaster situation, identifying vulnerable and safe areas. > Establish and sustain optimal technical monitoring and warning service for disasters, in all relevant institutions, linked to the international network. X A strategy to ensure dissemination of information about disasters in an understandableway to those at risk. > EnSureknowledge, publicawareness and
preparedness to act in disasters,
Social and Welfare services for relief and rehabilitation
Thereal magnitude of a disaster i.e. the value of all losses inflicted as well as of those Suffered in its aftermath is an actual realization of a possible risk scenario which needs to be taken into account in planning for rehabilitation and reconstruction. The risk representing the value of allpotential losses that may becaused by a hazardous event is in turn predicted by the
magnitude of the event with its impactor Vulner
Although budgetary all Constituted and financed programme are in abunc the tsunamidisaster, W. Welfare mechanism of the aconsiderable delayin activities for relief and r and non governmentvol quick to respond to imme rehabilitation activities,
There is no argument Construction should & recurrence and the loca prior to make any decisic
In the case of Decembe buffer zone of 100m in th east is to restrict the po activities in a safezOne, of risk free zone requ Vulnerability analysis Sca intensities of impact and t the disaster.
In view of this, space tech Sensing and Global Pos coupled with spatial data like Geographical Informa provide detailed knowled required for early warning plans, relief, rehabilitation and mitigation efforts.
Risk evaluations to prep designated areas (e.g. 2 specified levels of hazard area of land resourcesat of vulnerability status rec data products such as geotechnical characte engineering characte infrastructure and mOstoft from space satellite platf estimation or evaluatior indices derived from S efectively used. Furt Community to aparticul entity and needs to be up data available onoptical thermal and microwave sensor systems such as dynamic data libraries fo
Vulnerability decreases v Construction practices ar infrastructure and COr Conversely, during the how Vulnerability increas growth of human habitatic
Economic Review: April/July 2005

nd by Ourability to Cope bility.
cations for a properly Ocial and Welfare Service ance in the country after witness that the SOcial government experience aunching their planned habilitation. Individual inteer organizations are diate needs of relief and
that any post disaster valuate the potential tion of hazardous ZOne nonreconstruction.
r 26 tsunami, imposing e South and 200m in the st disaster Construction lowever, the identification ired a comprehensive ing the possible physical he degree of exposure to
nologies such as Remote itioning Systems (GPS) a management systems tion Systems (GIS) could geandinformation base strategies, preparedness reconstruction activities
are vulnerability maps of km from shorelines) for sanother key application ellite data, ldentification uires a variety of spatial topography, land use, ristics of the ground, ristics of buildings & nesedatacan beacquired Orms, Even when direct is not possible, proxy atellite data Could be her, vulnerability of a ir disaster is a dynamic dated regularly. Satellite bands, infra-red regions, lengths and also active RADAR could provide this purpose,
ith improved design and dialso with more reliable munication facilities, sunami, we witnessed sin areas of unplanned ns, social and economic
activities, unmindful of the lurking threat of natural hazards.
Satellite dataOn a proper G|Splatform Could providethe information baseforsuitability criteria in planning, rehabilitation and reconstruction. It is evident that Vulnerability assessment requires a very careful synthesis of a large number of factors On the environment,
Geographical Information Systems which are capable of assembling, storing, manipulating and displaying geographically referenced spatial information now make it possible to attempt such asynthesis and test the feasibility of alternative proposals.
Disaster Mitigation
Most disasters cannot be prevented and hence, impacts are obviously found and needed to be mitigated.
Any natural hazard associates with a possible risk and it is actually realized by the value of all losses caused by disaster (magnitude of the disaster) and by those who suffered in its aftermath. Potential risk of hazard is calculated by the magnitude of the hazardous event and by our ability to cope with its impact (vulnerability), if it becomes a disaster. The logical and most optimistic goal of disaster mitigation is therefore risk reduction.
Quantitative assessment of risk provides a rational basis for risk reduction. Proper risk assessments reveals away to reorientCurrent strategies prevalent in this country soas to shift the focus from the highly expensive postdisaster rescue and relief operations to Cost effective planned actions aimed at Creating knowledgebased hazardresilient publicassets.
In fact, the developed world has enough knowledge to reduce risks posed by natural hazards and thereby minimizing their harmful impacts. For example, a magnitude of 7 earthquake that rocked California in 1998caused fewer deaths. By contrast, the 6.3 magnitude Maharashta earthquake of 1993 killed over 10,000 people. This clearly shows where the developing World and developed world stand interms of disaster risk reduction.
Risk Reduction
Specifically, three phases can be identified to define disastermitigation goals; one before the event, second in its immediate aftermath and the last in postdisaster period.
The first phase tasks could be collectively called as advance planning and it consists of
25

Page 28
a) Creating a knowledge based hazard consciousness at all levels to foster such as hazard resilient land use, siting and Construction practices
b) preparations to Cope with an imminent hazard by measures Such as Setting up of possible early forecast and warning systems
In the immediate aftermath of a disaster, quick delineation of all salvageable lives and Supporting systems at risk, searchand rescue, evacuation, medical assistance, food and shelter, etc. should be accomplished to reduce risk. The modern technology availableat present such as space based surveillance systems and computer simulations can be used successfully to direct timely and more efficient rescue and relief operations.
Finally, it would be needed to producerisk maps and figures which will provide basic direction for planning reconstruction and rehabilitation activities.
Risk Assessment
Risk maps and figures are two basic inputs used inthe decisionmaking processatvarious
stages of the risk or disa In this process, we obtai losses (risk) that maypo: of a hazardous event. R region could be doneint
1) Evaluation ofhazar
This is expressed interms of exceedingly possibili (threshold) of environmer motion, atmospherict precipitation, wind Veloc time periods. Several n generated for different dis future time windows,
2) Preparation of vulnera
The second step in risk vulnerability maps of desig levels of hazards. This requires detailed informa use, geotechnical chara and engineering charact infrastructure facilities.T Information Systems
assembling, storing, mar massive quantities of ge
Contd. from Page 22
ReConstruction of damaged Community infrastructure facilities is essential for upliftment and development of the fishing community. The project aims at rehabilitation and reconstruction of community Centers, pre-childhood development centers and Welfarefacilities. The project also includes special Counseling programmes for physically handicapped and Orphaned children and also formentally distressed people due to tsunami.
7. Rehabilitation of the coastal areas. Coastal habitats and ecosystems such as mangroves, COral reefs, land vegetations, agriCultural lands, Sanddunes, beach stretches and lagoonmouths have been affected by tsunami in varying degrees. Theaffected Coastal Zone and Coastal environment will be restored via rehabilitation of the affected ecosystems and deploying preventive measuresforminimizing erosion throughestablishing and rehabilitation of coastal protectionstructures. Theproposed project
will be carried out by the CCD and approximate
Cost would be around LKR 1669 millions,
Financial assistance, implementation and monitoring
Most of the financial requirements would be provided through NGO's, foreign governments and multilateral organizations. Somegrants that
are provided as eithern subsidies would be utilize boats and gear.
MFAR would be the focal this programme. Howe Project implementing U lished aiming to functi smoothly and efficiently, tional level, fulfilling the fir essary, providing facilities for IPU and developingir between the Ministry anc cial level officers of MFA tantrolein supportingth activities by ensuring S sions taken by the Minist level district administers, tor COmpanies would tal programme. Fisheries Cc Cooperatives will also planning and impleme Programme Monitoring a also be established to a and impacts of the Reh. ment Programme and this but in Collaboration with
Conclusion
ThereConstruction andr
would not only restoreth capacity, but also it woul
26

stermitigation activities. in maximum estimate of ssibly accrue in the wake iskeValuationina given hree steps.
ds
3 of the Spatial distribution ties for aspecified level ital disturbances (grOUnd amperature, pressure, :ities) over given future naps can be therefore, turbance thresholds and
ability maps
evaluation is to prepare }natedareasforspecified S is a heavy task and tion on topography, land cteristics of the ground, eristics of buildings and he modern Geographical (GIS) are capable of tipulating and displaying Ographically referenced
information. Therefore, it is possible to test the validity of many alternativeschemes. The basic GIS can thus be progressively enriched to construct and test realistic model of vulnerability.
3) Preparation of Risk Maps Figures
Finally, suitable risk maps/figures can be produced by Combining the hazard and vulnerability maps in an appropriate manner.
Our Expectations
From the experience of tsunami disaster, a Organisational framework has been proposed by the government to COver all aspects of disaster management. This includes interMinisterial Committee for Disaster Preparedness and Management, Disaster Mitigation Authority, National Disaster Response Force, and National Disaster Management Centre. It is the responsibility of Scientists to contribute to the efforts of developing Comprehensive management strategies to protect Our nation form future disasters and it is the responsibility of everybody to be aware of the impending disasters and follow the safety guidelines, regulations and instructions to be Safe from natural disasters
laterials goods or Cash 2d for repairing replacing
point that implementing ver, a separate body, nit (PIU), will be estabOning the mechanism | MFARwould actin naancial needs where necsand required personnel nproVed COmmunication the community. ProvinR would play an impore PIUin provinciallevel peedy convey of deciry. Districtanddivisional NGO's and private sec(e partin implanting the Immunities and fisheries have a decisive role in inting the programme. nd Evaluating unit would SSess the achievements abilitation and Developwould actindependently PIU.
ehabilitationprogramme epre-tsunami production densure the upgrade the
sector and diversify and enhance the livelihood of affected fishing community. In the absence of details of damage by tsunami, it is impractical to estimate incremental benefits from the programme, however, based on the damage to equipment and loss, it could be predicted that the increment output, improved efficiency and enhanced product would add at lest 30 percent tofisheries output in the affected areas. Much of this could be generated in early medium-term and it is anticipated that investment cost would be economically justified within the ten years of programme initiation.
References
Anon, 2005(a). Impact of the Tsunamion Fisheries, Aquaculture and Coastalliwelihood. Anon, 2005(b). Re-establishment of marinefishingfleet of Sri Lanka after Tsunami. Report prepared by the Marine Biological Resources Division of the National Aquatic ReSources Research and Development Agency, Anon2005(c). Sri Lanka. Preliminary damage and need asSeSSment Anon, 2005(d). Strategy and programme for rehabilitation and development of the fisheries sector in tsunami affected areas, Draft consultation document prepared by the Ministry of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources with the assistance of FAO. Anon, 2005(e). The report of therapidassessment conducted to evaluate the impact of tsunamion the coastal fishery of Sri Lanka. Report prepared by the Marine Biological ReSources Division of the National Aquatic Resources ReSearch and Development Agency. Anon, 2005(). Tsunamimpact summary: Sri Lanka. Maldeniya, R1997. Marinefisheries in Sri Lanka and future developments. Economic Review: 23(6)ഇ
Economic Review: April/July 2005

Page 29
Human Developmen Knowledge-Based So
Sri Lankan Scene*
The book is an outcome of the proceedings of the Annual Sessions of the SLEA in mid-2004 and includes 10 Chapters, which are divided into six Parts. Each Part links Human Development to aspecificarea of economic progress, viz., poverty, growth, services (financial), education and health, technology and productivity, and competitiveness. Some Parts are accompanied by comments from discussants but some do not carry Comments. After the Preface by the editor, the book begins with Chapter 1.
Chapter 1 by the editorison Human Development and Poverty. After presenting acritique of the Human Development Index (HDI) (used by UN Human Development Reports), the authoruses Sri Lankan dataon HDI and poverty to show that high HD does not necessarily mean that poverty has reduced. The author goes on to show that combating poverty needs specific policies such as rural development Centred around agriculture, promotion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), etc., and this is the most effective way to enhance human development, which in turn, will lead togreater employability and productivity.
In Chapter 2, Rehman Sobhan, shows that addressing poverty needs a totally different new approach from the conventional wisdom. He bases his argumenton the failures of the Bretton Woods institutions led structural adjustment packages (and later Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) to effectively alleviate poverty. He argues that structural injustice in distributing productive assets, marketing, human development programmes, and governance remains the major source of poverty and exclusion. It is not by programmes that target the poor that poverty could beeradicated says the author, but by democratizing development by directly integrating the poor to the growth process. After providing a comprehensive Critique of PRSPs, Sobhan presents a new programme to eradicatepoverty and calls for a new-generation of pro-poor structural reforms.
In Chapter 3, Nimal Sanderatne examines the Growth-Human Developmentcebate andargues that both are needed forenhancement of each other, Highgrowth alone cannot enhance
Human Development ass East Countries and during nOmic liberalization in Sri ! a means to achieve an end ment. The authorarguest achievements in human de tribute to low growth, but and external shocks that COr In any case, the author arg be sustainable if it is to m enhance human developm growth matters, as the 19. opment Report has coger Lanka's recent pattern ofg inequality underscores the basedandsUstainablegrOV
Thenuwara, in Chapter 4, tance of the delivery of finan ate poverty and enhance F While the shift of the resour tors to deficit sectorSCOuld b closer to the poor, for them levels Some innovation in necessary. This is becaus mand dueto thelow purcha and this discourages supply by the private sector. More problems of moral hazards a further discouragegenerous services to the poor. It is innovative Schemes Su programmes, Grameen Mod becomes importantand thea havetogo hand-in-hand Witl ery servicestomakeanef ducing poverty,
In Chapter 5, Swarna Jayav multi-dimensions of Human that the inter-face of educat nomic and Socio-Cultural en' the Success of educationa: velopment process and programme on education ref the area of human develops ployment-oriented training tional institutions distributec i.e., (1) between generale( ment, and (2) between Univ employment. It is argued
* Edited by Prof. A.D.W. de S. Indraratna, published by the Sri Lanka Economic Association (SLEA), pages 263, ISBN: 955-620-018-5, 2004
Economic Review: April/July 2005

tin a ciety
Own in SOme Middle he early years of ecoanka. Growth is only i.e., human develophatin SriLanka, high elopment didnotConwas wrong policies tributed to lowgrowth. esthatgrowth hasto ake a Contribution to ent and the quality of 6 UN Human Develitly articulated. Sri Owth with increasing need for more broad巾。
addresses the imporcial Services to alleviuman development. Ces from surplus secring financial services to reach grassroots financial delivery is se there is a lOW desing power of the poor f of financial Services Over, the well known ind adverse Selection allocation of financial
in this Context that h as micro-Credit el basediending, etc., uthor argues that they other pro-poor delivective impact on re
"eera argues that the Development indicate on with political, ecoironment is Crucial to an agent of total deresents a six-point Im. Thechallengein ent is to provideemin two tiers of Vocaequitably in districts, Jcation and employ2rsity education and hat career guidance
Book Review
Dr. Saman Kelegama
Counselors should work in close association with district training Centres and national education bodies to meet the challenge.
Daya Samarasinghe, in Chapter 6, argues that the health Sector reforms are necessary with emerging new problems and increase in demand for health service With technology, S0cial, demographic and global changes. The post-1977 health reforms attempts of 1980, 1993, 1997, and 2003 have not been very successful due to inadequate consultation with stakeholders andinadequatepublicand pariamentary debates, Samarasinghe argues that for reforms to be successful: (a) recommendations should be prioritized and implementation plans should be well developed; (b) timing of implementation should preferably be in the early years of a governmentinoffice; (c) reformists should be well Organized andmarket the reforms through active public debate, and (d) the political leadership should strongly supportreform. Samarasinghe Concludes by stating that all is not lost. Some reforms appear to be successful to the extent of having a snowballing effect, others are being implemented but need close monitoring and fine-tuning while some others are in the drawing board subject to Critical analysis.
Development of Information Communication Technology (ICT) toassist the pooristhetheme of Chapter 7 by V.K. Samaranayake. The author highlights some of the existing ICT programmes such as JobNet, CyberTrade, Sri Lanka Bureau for Foreign Employment Website, Govi Sahanaya Programme, MultiPurpose Tele Centre (Sarvodaya), etc., toassist the lower-middle class and poor people. However, the author argues that these programmes function in an isolated manner and do not follow an integrated national effort and aretherefore inadequate to meet the challenges of poverty. The authoridentifies governance, education, health, and agriculture, as the four areas where ICT can help poverty alleviation and some of the innovative international practices (based on the Petersburg Prize) in these areasare highlighted. Theauthorargues thata number of ICT issues which fall within many Ministries have to be resolved before
Contd. on Page 30
27

Page 30
Changes in China T Industry and its Implications for Sri
China and Sri Lankaare two major tea-producing Countries in the world. Tea industry plays a Crucial role in Sri Lanka's economy, which accounts for more than 3% of the total GDP and is the second largest earner of foreign Currency aftergarment industry. In China, although tea industry can't get the same status in economy as in Sri Lanka, it is still important for Some remote mountainous areas of Southern China where alternative earning opportunity is very rare, it has been publicly known that there is no competitiveness between Sri Lanka and China as their two countries produce different categories ofteathat caterto differentsegments of the world tea market. However, in the trend of globalization, to some extent, markets are integrated in various ways. Therefore, changes in tea markets in either China or Sri Lanka will influence its counterpart. In recent years, there have been many changes occurred to China' tea industry with social transformation, and these trends will probably give risetosome opportunities for Sri Lanka's tea industry.
In fact, Chinese import of black tea from Sri Lanka is gradually increasing, China imported 473 metric tons of Sri Lanka' tea in 2004, as against 170 metrictons in 2003. The figure in 2005 also shows the momentum for Sri Lanka' tea to go into Chinese market. According to Chinese Custom, during the first half of 2005, approximately 381 metrictions of Sri Lanka's tea entered China, worth $1.04 million. These figures rose by 49.83% and 35.4% respectively, compared to the corresponding period in 2004, and account for 31.2% and 34.2% of the total amount of Chinese tea import and its value in this period. In addition, some Sri Lanka tea producers are marketing their own brands, such as Mabroc, and attracting attention from more and more Consumers in China,
Current Trends in China's Tea Industry Structural Change of Tea Categories
China produces diverse categories of made
tea. Based on the similarity of key technology
adopted in processing, namely green tea, bl. tea, Oolong tea and Caleddarkgreen teaa in shape of cake or bri ber of darkgreen teag
Table 1 shows that the from 1980s on, but ot Which Was ContributeC at different rates, Table ries of Chinese teaan( tion as in the total outp There are some obvi decades according tol group was consistent the production of Chin most of tea lowers in C green tea, which wills Continue its dominants longtime. In addition groupasa whole, the market has been unde consumption of tradition which is now mainly and more people cons in their daily life. This usually enjoy high pric
Secondly, the produc clined sharply from 25 5.2% in 2003. Before needforforeigncuTen formOrethan 70% oft World tea market. So, foreign exchange, Ch aged export of black subsidy policy stimula tea and helped to win World black tea mark price. After the termir 1990s, it was very na production of black ti China's black tea is in SOn With Other COuntrie
The Table2furthershc
Table 1 - Tea Output and Extent in China
Yeaক্স 1982 1985 1988 1991 Area('000 hectare) 1,126 1,071 1,082 1,060 1,135 1,076 1,090 4,190 Output(kg min) 4214 4555569054售658856430 67607702
1994. 1997 2000 2003
Source: Agricultural Ministry, China
*The authors are, adeputy professor in Zhejiang University of China, now as apost-doctoral fellow in PGA of Peradeniya University and a Senior Lecturer in Agricultural Economics,
University of Peradeniya, respectively.
28

ea
Lanka
there are six basic groups, ack tea, yellow tea, white brick tea, Brick tea is also ndis usually manufactured ick. Pu-eroteais One mem
IsOup.
extent Under tea was stable Itput gradually increased, by varioustea categories 2 lists three major categoithe changes of its proporbut in the last two decades. Ous trends in the last tyWO the Table 2. First, green tea ly growing and dominated 2se tea. It is believable that hina will still be infavor of support green tea group to tatus in China's industry for to its growth of green tea jreenteagroup in domestic rgoing great changes. The agreen tea dropped sharply for export, instead, more umehand-made greentea hand-madegreen tea can
Ce,
tion of black tea group de% of total output in 1984 to 1990s, China was in urgent cy, and black tea accounted he total trade Volume in the for the purpose of earning inesegovernmentencourtea through subsidy. The ited the production of black a substantial share of the (et by the strategy of low lation of export subsidy in tural for a big reduction of ea, because the quality of otcompetitive in Compariis, such as that in Sri Lanka,
ws that, despite the stagna
Su Zhucheng & L.H.P. Gunaratne*
tion of growth in recent years because of the limitation of the extent, the output of Oolong tea has increased by 600% from 1984 to 2003. Oolong teagroup is boomingat this momentin China's domestic teamarket. Japanese market is also in great demand of China's Oolong tea. Some market surveys indicate that the taste ofOolongtea can meetdiferent consumers from young generation tooldone, including some persons who originally didn't like drinking tea. So, Oolong tea possesses a potential to increase its production in the future. The Continuously increasing price of Oolong teamay be supposed to support this prediction.
Of the other types of tea such as brick tea, yellow tea and white tea groups, Pu-er tea should be of concern, which belongs to dark
greentea group. Although these groups' propor
tion as a whole in the national output halved during the last two decades, the demand for Pu-ertea and its production is slightly increasing now. There are some experiment results showing that Pu-ertea has physiologically positive effect on health, such as reducing accumulation of fatin blood vessel. This fact is used to to promote its consumption in China and some other regions in EasternandSouthern Asia and Europe as well. However, Pu-er tea has a special flavor which is not preferred by most consumers and it is now used only a small number of Consumers.
Changes to Exporting Sector
As shown the Table3, Chinese tea exporting volume and domestic consumption increased by 120% and 170% respectively from 1982 to 2003. This indicates that the growth of Chinese tea industry be motivated by both domesticand international demand. In fact, domestic market plays a Crucial role in the development of Chinese tea industry. Although the exporting volume in 2003 has doubled in comparison with the beginning of 1980s, Chinese tea industry as a whole has gotten only a littlebenefit from it if taking the factor of exporting price into consid
Table 2- Proportion of Different Tea Categories in Total Output, China
GreenTea Black Tea Oolong Tea Others
Categories 1984 5.3% 24.9%
2.3% 21.5%
1990 1994. 1997 2000 2003 60.0%,68.4%,72.3% 72.9% 742% 20.0%. 12.8% 8.0%. 6.9% 5.2% 6.0%,74%,9.2% 9.9% 10.6% 箕4.0%,售4%,售0.5% 雷0.3% 10.0%
Source: Agricultural Ministry, China Note: Others includes brick tea, yellow tea and white tea
Economic Review: April/July 2005

Page 31
Table 3 Export and domestic consumption of Chinese tea
Kg min Year 1982 1985 1988 1991, 1994. 1997 2000 2003 Domestic consumption 184 253 310 311 350 401 456 500 Export 116 147 206 188 186 203 249 260
Source: Customs Bureau and Agriculture Department, China
eration. The Table 4 indicates that, from 1990 to 2003, the exporting volume increased by 33%, but the value declined from 413 million US dollars to 367 million.
What explains the poor price of Chinese export tea? As we know, China's green tea dominates international green tea trade. In other Words, China's tea industry has astrong market power with regard to the green tea trade in the world. In addition, green tea dominates the total tea exports in China, as shown in the Table 5. Furthermore, green tea targets Only a few regions of the entire global tea market, which is mainly located in Africa and few European countries. Based on these factors, it is very obvious that, when export volume grows faster than demand, price goes down.
Development of Ready-to-Drink Tea and Extraction Product
The demand for Ready-to Drinktype product exists mainly among the young generation. In
One billion US dollars.
In addition to ready-to-drin traction and purification of material is also developin is the industrial production pacity producing polyphe 5,000 metrictonsannualya metrictons of tea material. association with ready-tonent extraction is gradually technically depicted in Fig
Implication for Sri Lank
Generally, tea leaves prod more polyphenol content, \ tea. On the contrary, teal able for green tea for its rel Content. This difference of determined by two factors, tion and types of tea clon condition plays a decisives variety will lead to changei
Extraction, separation
Purified compone applicatio
and purification
h
Production of
raw tea material
and drying
Extraction, concentration
Tea instant * beverage in
Figure 1. The sub-industry for tea extraction
China's softdrinkmarket, Ready-to-drink tea is One of three major soft beverages, based on the selling value, Water ranks the first, followed by carbonateSOdadrink. The marketofready-todrink tea is only handled by very few companies Suchas Kangshifu, Tongyi and Wahaha etc.
Ready-to-drink tea emerged at the mid-1980s in China. At that time, very few people recognized its potential and it stagnated during the first ten years. In the recent ten years, it is booming and is deemed to be one impetus of upgrading Chinese traditional tea industry. Statistics show that about more than 4,000,000 metrictions of this Softdrink were sold in 2004. It utilized approximately 20,000 metrictons of
when moving understrang This explains the reason f introduction of clones from purpose of developing gre spite much endeavor mad to export only a limitedam years, as shown in the Tal
Now, there is new situatior domestic market, asdiscu section, and that will proba tential opportunities for Sr The following area Couple
Potential Market of Sem
tea material and Created value additionaround The demand for SOme semi
Table 6 Ex Table 5 Composition of tea categories for export in China, 2004 item Green tea Black tea Oolong tea the others Volume(kg mn) 1962 3.94 1.95 251 Value(US dollarsmn) 2940 4.1.8 449 56.1 Green tea Source: Customs Bureau, China Source: Sri |
Economic Review: April/July 2005
 

ble 4 Average price of Chinese exporting tea
US dollars per metricton
3了 1980, 1985 porting price 2,352 2,147
1990 1993 2,112 1768
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1,740 1,370 1,315 1410 1559
urce: Customs Bureau, China
k tea, the sector of excomponents from tea quickly. One of them of polyphenol. The canol in China is about dit needs about 30,000 Now, a sub-industry in drink tea and compoforming. This may be Ire 1.
a Tea industry
uced in Sri Lanka has which fits broken black aves in China is Suitatively low polyphenol production pattern is namely climatic condies. Of them, climatic Ole, beCausethesame nchemical component
---- nt for industrial
powder for manufacturer
Je climatic Conditions. Drfailure OCCurs in the China to Sri Lanka for entea. As a result, dee, Sri Lanka was able Dunt of green in recent }le 6.
emerging in Chinese ssed in the preceding bly provide some poLanka's tea industry. of such opportunities.
-Fermented Tea
fermented tea is grOW
ing, but its supply is being limited by output in China. This semi-fermented tea group consists of Oolong tea and Pu-ertea etc. The essence of fermenting technique intea processingis enzynic oxidation of Catechin into theaflavin and thearubiginto some extent. Catechin in semifermented tea is partially oxidized but less than black tea, as against no enzymic Oxidation in green tea processing. This special technique createsthespecifictaste ofsemi-fementedtea which is different from eithergreen teaor black tea. That may be one reason why it is now attractingmoreandmore Consumers Whoneither like thestringency of non-fermented teanor the fermented flavor of black tea. This quality fermented tea is now produced in only a few regions of China where adequate climaticCondition can be met. This constraint limits the supply of quality semi-fermented tea. When Comparing Sri Lanka with these regions where semifermented tea is produced in China, it is found there are some similar production Conditions and it suggests possibility for Sri Lanka's tea industry to fill the gap of demand for this group of tea in China,
At first, some kinds of Semi-fermented tea need leaves of big leaf clone which contains relatively much polyphenol content. Big leaf clone can grow well under the condition of high average temperature, so this clone is mainly cultiwated in southern part of China, such as Yunnan and Guangdong Provinces. In addition to the requirement of teaplant clone, high environmental temperature is also necessary for the processing of some semi-fermented tea. Sri Lanka has some Common features with the abovementioned provinces in China in aspect of climate and teaplant variety.
Secondly, quality tea is usually related to the elevation of teafield, which is relevant to the spectrum of sunlight. Generally, tea from this field in high height can Correspondingly get high quality and earns attractive price for its unanimous recognition from consumers. But extensive cultivation in high elevation in China will encounter geographical Constraints. China is located in the temperate Zone, so temperature in high elevation regions normally dropstobelow Celsius zero in most time of the Winter,
port of Green Tea, Sri Lanka
2001 2002 2003 Volume Value Volume Value Volume Value Volume Value 000kg) (Rs. Mn) (000kg) (Rs. Mn) | (000kg) (Rs. Mn)(000kg) (Rs. Mn)
217 146 222 164 345 287 654 473
ank Customs
29

Page 32
Unduly Low temperature may cause physiologically adverse impact on teaplantand even freezes it. That is why teafield is usually distributed in loWheightarea in China, incontrast, teafield in Sri Lanka is largely located more than five hundred meters high in elevation. It has been recognized that the black tea in Up Country, such as Nuwara Eliya area, Contains richer aromas than that in low country. These aromas canmeetthe requirementofhigh quality semi-fermented tea. Besides that, big temperature difference between day and night is a desirable Condition for the processing of some semi-fermented teakinds and this Condition can also be ensured in Sri Lanka.
Booming Demand of Raw Material for Tea Extraction
As mentioned at the beginning part of this paper, about total 50,000 metrictons of raw made
Contd. from Page 27
introducing an integrated approach where the provision of information and services could help people to Overcome poverty.
Chapter 8 by Sunil Chandrasiri is the Only paper in the book which uses an econometric model. Here, a simultaneous equation model is used to find the intra-link between technology and productivity in Sri Lanka. The model overcomes the shortcomings of the previous studies on the subjectmatter and uses the StruCture-Conduct-Performance framework used in Industrial Organization theory. The findings do not show technology as adeterminant of productivity (measured in relative terms), but industrial concentration is found to bean important determinant of productivity and this result clearly does not support the traditional Schumpeterian argument.
in Chapter 9 Mahendra Amarasuriya shows the inadequacy of the Porter's (1990) Competitive Diamond frameworkin deterraining the Competitive advantage of a nation in the modern day world where Knowledge-Management techniques infirms have progressed to unprecedented levels, Competitive strength today depends on speed, agility, managing knowledge-flow and all large global Companies have formal knowledge-management programmes. in Sri Lanka, Only One or two Corporates have Such programmes and many Companies are not "Knowledge-Ready to face competitionina
Ao
tea is consumed in Chi extraction annually, inc and component purificat ers different groups of black tea and Oolong te to-drink tea market, bla more prosperous thang green tea is not easy to and taste. Now, the pro is in shortage of rawma black tea. In China, Gua inces which were Onces regions are now shifting due to high price. The O the supply of raw black tent of polyphenol, Inac teacontains more poly and it suggests more ac black tea to be used for
In Order to captureshare
knowledge-based globa ing the need for firm lev Out that the governmen role for the private sect based techniques forth
The final Chapter (10) b Competition, industry an shows the advantageso ever, he cautions that if accompanied by Corres factor markets (land, lab ment Of infrastructurean environment, the surviv will be under threat and ascenario can strength trade liberalization proc sequencethetrade liber disadvantage to domes benefit to the Consumer,
What has been elabora of the Chapters. The Cl not been subjected to a taskis left to another Sul Over, the COntents of til been examined by the
Based on the initial read lacks an overal introd stracts of each Chapte it. After the Human Res view 1992/93 (Human Council, 1994) and the
30

na for the purpose of tea luding ready-to-drink tea ion. This raw material Cowtea, including green tea, a. With respect to readyck tea and Oolong tea is reen tea because liquor of preserve in original Color Cessing industry in China terial Supply, especially in ungdong and Yunna Provmajor black tea-producing from black tea toother tea ther regions cannot meet tea because of low Conddition, Sri Lanka's black phenol than China's one dvantages for Sri Lanka's extraction.
! in this segment of the tea
market in China, Sri Lanka's industry can act in two steps. First is to promote the export of relatively low grade of broken black tea. High grade of black teashould enjoy appropriately high price and therefore is not competitive in this regard. Contrarily, low grade of blackteais Sufficient to satisfy the purpose of extraction, Sri Lanka may reach this objective by establishing an agent to distribute to different extraction manufacturers in China. Then, since the cost of the production in Sri Lanka is still high mainly due to high labor cost, it needs to find ways to cutdown the labor Cost. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt labor COst-saving technology in tea production and processing, such as application of machine-plucking technology. This kind of tea has nospecific requirement for shape and Coloretc, so it is feasible for the application of mechanical technology, Sri Lanka can enhance its competitiveness in marketing in China by reducing labor Cost of tea processing
market. While highlight"els innovation, he points thas to play a facilitating orto exploit knowledgeeadvantage of Sri Lanka.
y Anura Ekanayake is On IdConsumer. Ekanayake if trade liberalization, howtrade liberalization is not sponding liberalization of Our, and Capital), developd promoting a competitive ral of domestic industries lead to job losses. Such en lobbies to reverse the ess, thus it is important to alization to bring minimum tic industry and maximum
ted above is an overview hapters themselves have Critical analysis and this Osequent reviewer, Morene discussants have not reviewer.
ing it is noted that the book uction, however, the absomewhat makes up for ources Development ReResources Development National Human Develop
ment Report: Sri Lanka (UNDP, 1998) there has not been a comprehensive report On HUman Development in Sri Lanka. In addition to giving an up-to-dateaCCounton Human Development, the report brings in the new Knowledge-based dimensionand in that senseit isan important contribution andfills in an existing void in the existing local literature on the Subject. Most of the Chapters are backed by good research efforts and a number of references on the subject which may prove useful for abroad spectrum of scholars. The authors and editor must be applauded for their effort,
All in all, it is a timely publication when Sri Lankais lagging behindin knowledge-based techniques compared to many of her competitors. The book gives a clear message, i.e., Sri Lankacan no longersition her laurels of achieving high HDls to face the future challenges of the global economy. There is along way to go for Sri Lanka to be Knowledge-Ready and the policy apparatus should be well geared to face the challenge. If not, it would be another case of "missed opportunities"for SriLanka, The Contents of the volume could be of great interest and value for policymakers and administrators as well as students, teachers and researchers in economics,
(The reviewis based on the Introduction to the Book made at the launch of the publication Organized by the Sri Lanka Economic ASSOciation, OPAAuditorium, 25 January 2005
Economic Review: April/July 2005

Page 33
Oil Price Surge and for Energy: Sri Lan Global Perspective
During the last twelve months, World oil prices have remained stubbornly high aroundanaverage value of US$55 per barrel. The oil prices have been on the upward trend since the beginning of 2005 (see Table 1). A Singapore based commentator stated that "As longas oil demand remains strong, in the short-term we Cannot expect prices to drop significantly". The World oilmarket has entered into a new phase where there is significant increase in the global energy demand which can be met by a few Countries with a functional ability to increase Supply. Current changes in the World oil industry and market are bound to have deep impact and implication for both oil producers and oil CONSUETS.
Increasing Demand
The last few years have seen an unusually sustained strong demand. Table2shows that the global demand for oil has risen from 76.7 million barrels per day in 2000 to 84.3 million barrels per day in 2005. And this high rate of demand growth, although it might slow down as indicated in the Table (from 2 per cent in 2005 to 0.7 per cent in 2025), is unlikely to reverse its COurse in the near future. Demand for oil is on the increase due totherapid growth in Asian Countries, in particular, India and China. With therapid growth of these two economies, the number of middle class vehicle Owners has increased rapidly contributing to the additional demand. 35-40 per cent of additional oil demand during the last 5years has come from China and India. But US still remains the largest oil consumer in the World accounting for 25
Supply Bottlenecks
There are indications Ofs ply capacity and shrinki capacity. Table 2 shows OPEC and Non-OPECC demand Scenario for the 2 stock changes will be slo Will provide 37 percento OPEC supply is forecas mists to continue growing per day for the next few adequateto COver the tot tional OECD COuntries h; duction capacity. Forex a new oil refinery for the p is running its old refinerie their capacity.
The whole oil industry ch oil production to shipping: very tight. Why could not pate the current demand? temporary situation.
The first is that the World that OPEC would alway capacity. The non-OPE explore alternative Sourc last decade. In fact, grO non-OPEC countries is from 2015. Oil is the on bestand largestassets al most efficient and bestcal 3). Two-thirds of the oil re Persian Gulf, wherefore WelCOme,
percent of global consumption. India is the 6th Table
largestenergy Consumer in the World and by MILLO
2010 it will be the fourth largest, Asia will ac- -
Count for one-third of world oil demand by 2025. Wಲ್ಲ:
o
NON
ΙΟΤΗ
Table: US$ Price of Crude Oil per Barrel: January-August 2005 CALL
Month January February March April May June July August Stock
Price 50 52 56 49 52 58 61 68 OPEC
Note: Rounded-off Price ဒို့ရွိေ Source: http://buisness.updates.com
(Cruc
Sourc
Economic Review: April / July 2005

Quest ka in
low growing OPEC Supng of the world refining the supply of oil from Ountries and the energy 005-2025 period. OPEC w and until about 2015 it fthe World supply. Nonted by many oil econoat about 1 million barrels | years and will not be alglobal demand. Tradiave peaked their oil proample, US has not built ast 29 years and the US satabove 90 percent of
ain of supply from Crude and refining has become the oil suppliers anticiLetus examinethe Con
had taken it for granted IS have enough spare C COuntries did little to es of energy during the with in oil production in |oing to show a decline y industry in which the enot in thehandsofthe bitalized firms (see Table Serves are found in the
Dr. Saman Kelegama
Executive Director Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka
Second, is the low oilmentality of both oil producing Countries and energy industrialists. Both were sceptical about the sustainability of a high oil price of over US$20 per barrel in the past. Thus upstream, and downstream investment plans were based on very low Crude oil price of between US$20 and 25 per barrel. Consequently, for downstream investment, business environment was not encouraging enough for energy Companies to consider any new inVestments,
Third, is the upstream policy which was misplaced after the price nosedive of November 1998 OPEC meeting in Indonesia. OPEC since then has been trying to prevent any big inventory increase in the world and has been COOrdinating very carefully with member countries the necessary level of her production (current official ceiling- 27.5 million barrels per day).
Speculation
There is price volatility in the oilmarket with prices fluctuating between US$45-55 during April–May 2005. Speculative activities in the oilmarket have increased by the pasterratic behaviour of prices and the key factors Contributing to these speculations are: (a) the uncertainty of oil policy under the new President in Iran, (b) the uncertainty in the OPEC after the death the King of Saudi Arabia in July 2005; (c) the uncertainty over the recovery of some oil wells in Iraq after the US bombing in March
gnfirmsare mostlyun- 2003; (d) Hurricane Katrina in USA disrupting
2: Demand & Supply of Oil: 2005-2025 NBARRELIDAY Historical Projection
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 DOL DEMAND 76.7 84.3 92.5 99.1 104.3 107.8 wth per annum 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% DPECSUPPLY(INCLNGLs RS) 48.7 54.9 60.3 622 62.9 63.7
ON OPECCRUDEOIL 28.0 29.5 323 370 41.5 44.2 change - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0. 0.1 CAPACITY (INCL. IRAQ) 31.1 320 35.4 39.9 44.3 46.7 CAPACITYUTILIZATION 90% 92% 91% 93% 94%| 95% E OFOPEC SUPPLY 37% 35% 35% 37% 40% 41% eoil only)
3: OPEC
31

Page 34
oil refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in late August 2005; and (e) whether there will beadequate supply ofgaSOline when Winterarrives in the Northern hemisphere. The floor price of at least USS 40 - 45 per barrel Compared to US$20–25 per barrel is the likely scenario soon.
Emerging Trend
There are now signs of OPEC's Supply responding toglobal demand, OPEC has revised its earlierstance and is attempting to increase inventories beforean expected fourth-quarter peakin consumption. Theorganization is Currently having disCUS
Table 3: Oil's Rich List-Top 20 Oil Comp.
Company Country S.
SaudiAramco SaudiArabia NOC Iran
INOC Iraq
KPC Kuwait PDV Venezuela Adnoc ԱAE Libya NOC Libya NNPC Nigeria Pemex Mexico Lukoil Russia Gazprom Russia ExxonMobi US YukOS* Russia Petrochina China Qatar Petroleum Qatar Sonatrach Algeria
BP Britain Petrobras Brazil Chevron Texaco US
Total France
* Now in effect controlled by government it Does not include newly acquired Unoc
sions On raising Output by an additional 500,000 barrels a day. The extra oil will mainly come from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The OPEC is quite confident that the Speculative bubble will burst with Such inCrease in production, but some others feel that it is not the increase in supply of Cride oil that matters but the availability of refineries to produce the type of oil that is in demand by the global Consumers. Aprominentenergyinvestor banker thinks that in view of rising input Costs (for such things as oil rigs, steel pipes, tankers, and SO On) the oil prices need to go further up (The Economist, April 30, 2005). But Others say that working out a fair price for oil is "a moving target it needs to becomfortable for bOth ConsumerSand producers, andata level whereinvestors will put money into the growt of the industry".
The international oil prices shot above US$70 per barrel in the last week of August 2005 amid Concerns about the damage to oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Katrina, Petroleum importing countries around the World, both developing and developed are facing the challenge of handling the unexpected and unprecedented increase in oil prices, ECOnomists fear that such levels could severely dent Consumerdemand and curb business activities. Some are referring to this situation as the "third oil shock" after the first in 1973 and the Second in 1979/1980, Asian leaders have been scaling backgrowth estimates for 2005 since August when crude oil started to climb above US$60 per barrel, Many Countries around the world are taking steps to Curb the demand for oil and looking to alternative Sources of energy. It is vital to ask at this junc
Source: Petroleum intelligence Weekly
ture what is Sri Lanka situation?
Oil Pricing in Sri Lani Oil Price Surge
When Sri Lanka signed the IMF in March 2001, the Country had to fulfill matic pricing for petrole leum prices should not be adjusted according t market prices and passe ers. Although this wasa by the government of S not implemented in 200 that year, it was theney late 2001 that implemer 2002 and rescued the Il ing apartin 2001. Altho petroleum was put into kerosene were Soldatt ing into consideration th by the non-affluentandt of diesel can substantia port cost and thereby
aSSeS.
The automatic pricing abandoned in January 2 living before the April 20 incoming new governi policy it inherited duetc price of oil on to consu petrol is sold below the and it continues todaya present, petrol (genera
32

anies, by Reserves, 2003
tateOwnership Milion Barres
%
售00 259,400 100 125,800 100 115,000 100 99,000 100 77.800 100 55,200 100 22,700 100 21,200 100 16,000 8 16,000 73 13,600 - 12,900 - 11,800 90 11,000 100 11,000 100 10,500 - 10, 100 32 9,800 - 8,600 7.300
a doing to соре with the
ka and Coping with the
the Stand-by package with One of the Conditions that Was to introduce an autoum. In otherWords, petrobe subsidized and should Othe fluCtuationsin World d-through to the consumCommitment undertaken Sri Lanka, this policy was 1 due to the political Crisis vily elected government in hted this policy in January WF package that was fallugh automatic pricing for Operation, both diesel and he subsidized prices takat kerosene is used more hat an increase in the price ally increase public transburden the less affluent
policy for petroleum was 2004 to Cushion the Cost of 04 general elections. The ment COntinued with the fears of passing a higher mers. Thus since 2004, automatic pricing formula is agovernment policy. At ) is soldat Rs, 80 per litre
Compared to the market price of Rs.90 per litre, Diesel is sold at Rs. 50 per litre Compared to the market price of Rs. 65 while Kerosene is sold at Rs. 30 per litre Compared to the market price of Rs. 70 (figures as at 01 September 2005). The Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) is selling these oils below the market price with a subsidy from the Treasury which amounted to Rs. 14.5 billion in 2004 and for the first half of 2005, the Subsidy has amounted to Rs. 9.2 billion due to the escalating prices of oil in the World market. It is expected that the oil subsidy for 2005 will exceed Rs. 20 billion- a very large sum indeed.
The Lanka Indian Oil Corporation (LIOC)
which bought 33 percent of the CPC in 2002
was also requested to follow the subsidized pricing policy for oil from January 2004, Consequent to LIOCSelling of oil below themarket price it had to forego US$60 million due to the company. The LIOC is making a claim for this sum from the Treasury; however, the Treasury is of the view that the government is not liable to pay the US$60 million unless LIOC makes actual losses due to government determined pricing. This dispute remains far from settled at thisjuncture.
In this uneasy situation, the government is making attempts to minimize the hardship to the Consumer by taking various measures. The 15 percent VAT applicable on diesel was removed amonthago with the objective of giving some relief to the consumer. However, the National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka has stated that there has not been any reduction of diesel prices in the market. What appears to have happened is that both the CPC and LIOC may have been allowed to Collect this Sum from the WAT to maintain the SubSidized pricing of diesel instead of the Treasury making a transfer to these companies for the diesel subsidy,
One can recall the President and the late Foreign Ministermakingavisittoiran in November 2004 to negotiate a deferred payment for oil imports from Iran. Given Sri Lanka's foreign exchange situation, Iran which accounts for 36 per cent of oil imports to Sri Lanka granted a US $ 180 million deferred payment. A few monthsago, India, WhichaCCountsfor 23 per cent of Sri Lanka's oil imports, granted a US$ 150 million line of Credit Onan installment pay
Economic Review: April/July 2005

Page 35
ment basis for purchase of oil. Both these Schemes have now been fully utilized. It is reported that the government is Contemplating On Securing another line of Credit from India for oil purchases. It is also reported that a high government officialis Scheduled to meet the G7 group to make a request to extend the debt moratorium that was granted to Sri Lanka in the aftermath of the Tsunami. The extension for the US$300-500 million debt payments for one year more (2006) is based on Sri Lanka's inadequate foreign reservestomeet such debt obligations after paying heavy oil bills. These efforts clearly indicate the reluctance on the part of the political establishment to passOn the higher oil prices to the Consumers and Continue with the universal subsidized pricing policy.
The use of Subsidies for the Oil Sector is not unique to Sri Lanka. Many Countries provide Subsidies for the oil sector to Cushion the producers and COnSumers from fluctuations of the global oil prices. However, when oil prices are reaching unprecedented levels, governments Seriously Consider Cutting down the Subsidy at least for petrol and find various ways and means to Conserve energy (COmbat demand) and find alternate Sources of energy (increase
Supply).
Strategy to Face the Situation and Quest for New Energy
Investment must be made now to bring new energy resources within the next decade and about US$16trillion investment is required to meet energy needs by 2030. The message is that both Supply enhancing and demandmanagement policies vis-a-vis energy are Considered as necessary to meet the Current challenge by many Countries. The new situationis Causing the US, Europe and Asia, in particular, Singapore, China, India, and Japan to re-evaluate and to reconsider their energy policiesacCOrding to their ownstrategic goals and objectives. Many COuntries are exploring alternative Sources of energy and methods to Curb demand for same. More energy diversification Would help to ease demand for oil and other fuels and WOuld make these COuntries less Vulnerable to price hikes or sudden shortages of oil. Developed COuntries are looking for nuclear power as an alternative though it is COstlier. Windpower is another cheap and clean Source of energy, General Electrics claim that "one General Electric Wind turbine can produce enough electricity for about 400 houses each year".
The Communist Party in C to Conserveelectricity był in government buildingst grees Celsius and Weart than Western Suits. Mean Out to ensure energy Secu economic growth. Withrist ticular y after 9/11, big con are locking in "equity Oil"t (The ECOnomist, 30 April-6 N ago, China's National Off(CNOOC) offered the high Chevron) to purchase the in Order to gain assets, part east Asia which is the hu SeaS activities. The Chinese a deliberate decision to Se gas assets overseasin ord term Concerns relating to se ply. This purchase attempt throughout the USA.
Other COuntries/regions to( measures to face the Curre. instance, in Thailand, Prim Sinawatra has already ann restrict usage of energy and
SOry requirement may bene COOperate with the governs paign". In Western Europet fered to people to switch to Vehicles and 42 per CentOfn diesel Vehicles. In Indonesi BambangiscontemplatingC Subsidy amounting to US$ mass protests. The Malays raised petrol and diesel prices October in a bid to Cut the
Subsidies.
These measures are taken eXchange, particularly by tarc ent people who use the high and Who are the major bene leum Subsidy. It is the gener affluent should not pay for as used by the affluent.
Sri Lanka does not Seem ha egytodea With the Oil price - respective governments ha take measures to Cut doWr government was advised On public transport (both the E vices) to reduce motor vehi thereby reduce traffic conges Annual Report of the Cent stated: "Developing an effic
Economic Review: April/July 2005

lahasurged Citizens ning air-conditioners O lower than 26 denner clothing rather ile, China is going all y to Sustain its rapid noil nationalismparmerSSUChaS China have peace in mind y 2005). Two months nore Oil Corporation st bid (above that of soil Company Unocal :ularly gas, in SouthOf CNOOC's OverOvernment has taken ure Chinese Oil and rto address its long Curity of energy Suphas sentalarm bells
have taken various htenergy Crisis. For Minister, Thakshin Dunced strategies to he stated "A Compuleded if people fail to ment’s Current CamaXincentives are ofdiesel based motor eW car buyers go for a, President, Susilo nScrapping the fuel 6.4 billion despite an government has four times Since last soaring Cost of fuel
O conserve foreign 2ting the more afflustamount of petrol ciaries of the petro| VieW that the nonbsidy that is mostly
along termstrate. Time and again, 2 been advised to he use of oil. The e need to improve ; and railway serS on the road and ls. In fact, the 2004
Bank (CBSLAR) htmaSS transport
system will not only reduce the use of private vehicles thereby saving energy, but will also help to protect the environment" (p.15). It is reported that currently there are 2.2million Vehicles On the roads and road Congestions lead to large Wastage of fuel and the COuntry loses Rs. 20 billion annually in traffic Congestions (Commissioner of MotorTraffic).
Successive governments were also advised to move fast on Coal power projects and the remaining hydropower projects to reduce the 65 percent dependence on thermal pOWerfor electricity Supply. Sri Lanka's hydro energy SOurces are reaching Saturation level (Only three new large projects remain). Thus, biomass, wind power, dendro, etc., should be fully explored to produce new energy from non-oil Sources while accelerating Coalpowerplants (Norachchalai and other new sites). It is reported that a Chinese company was given the contract for Norachchalai and Work will begin in October 2005. This is goodneWS but what steps has Sri Lankatakentorestrict demand for energy? Will there berestrictions on electric poWeruse?A10 percentreductioninoil COnsumption would have saved US$150million a year (CBSLAR, 2004, p. 15).
In a recent interview, the Finance Minister has stated that "...We should take every step to restrict the use of fuel. Fuel is being used in a Wasteful and in an anti-Social manner. I am going to set up a ceiling on the funds, which the Country will have to spend on fuel. Once We set up the ceiling, We will have to impose restrictions up to that ceiling. There is no other option" (Daily Mirror, 29 August). He went On to say that transport will not be restricted but the affluent will have to pay the market price of petrol very SOOn.
It is good to note that the government will take Some steps to Curb fuel demand but this WOuld not be adequate and a lot more needs to be done On both to COntrol demand for Oil and inCrease Supply of less oil dependent energy. The problem is that it is election time in Sri Lanka and Whatever Citizens resistandis unpopular wiH be avoided and postponed. This means that in the medium to longer term there will be more burdens On the economy.
(Lecture delivered at the "Cutting through CriSes", Ceriffed ManagementACCOuntants BuSiness Management Conference, Taj Samudra Hotel, Colombo,02 September 2005)
33

Page 36
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